WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread

jward

jward

passin' thru
jward

jward

passin' thru
how much more are those Iranian citizens going to suffer through b4 they
slap some o' that oil on the end of a torch n grab their pitchforks?? :hmm:





Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
20m

#BREAKING: The U.S. is considering tighter sanctions on Iranian oil sales to #China as a way to encourage Tehran to conclude a nuclear deal and raise the costs of abandoning stalled negotiations. #Iran #OOTT
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1417081465129603073
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1417081465129603073?s=20
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
War News 24 / 7
21/07/2021 - 23:46


It is enough for a "spark" or better a Taliban attack with anti-tanks on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border to ignite a total flare-up in Asia.

The 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan is "emptying" for a major exercise-preparing war with the Taliban. At least 50 Russian T-72 tanks along with artillery line up on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border amid Taliban advance.

Russian tanks on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border

Moscow has decided to mobilise tanks near the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border ahead of the start of military high schools next month, as regional tensions following the Taliban's intervention in Afghan territory remain intense.

Tanks left the Russian military base located in Tajikistan and after crossing a distance of 200 km, they reached close to the border with Afghanistan and specifically to the Harb-Maidon exercise field.

There are currently 50 tanks deployed in the region, and it has not been announced how many in total will take part in the upcoming joint military exercises, which will involve military forces from Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and will take place between 5-10 August.

The crews of the Russian T-72 tanks, during their march to the military exercises field, carried out exercises to protect the tank, repelling mock attacks by sabotage groups and blows from the "enemy" air force.

As soon as they reached the field of exercises the tank crews began to deploy and take a position covering the tanks," the Central Military Command statement said.

And new exercises on the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border

Today Russia announced the holding of joint military gymnasiums with Uzbekistan in southern Uzbekistan, also near the border with Afghanistan, which are expected to take place between 30 July and 10 August, with the participation of 1500 military, 200 vehicles and warplanes.

Earlier, the Commander of the Central Military Region, Alexander Lapin, revealed that Russia will conduct exercises with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from 5-10 August at the Harb-Maidon firing range. This camp is located about south of Tajikistan 80 km from the border with Afghanistan.

During the military exercise, the staff of the three countries will work on scenarios of repelling terrorists who "invade" across the country.

The core of Russian forces is the 201st military base.


A "spark" is enough to ignite in the region: Russia deployed 50 tanks on afghanistan border (video) - WarNews247
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Reza Khaasteh
@Khaaasteh

Huge: The Saudi Kingdom will send an envoy to the swearing-in ceremony of Ebrahim Raisi in early August, an informed source tells Etemad Daily. The two sides will also reopen their embassies soon
Click to expand...

Hummm.....The restaurant scene in the Godfather comes to mind. I just don't know yet who's getting up to use the men's room.....
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
How water has become a flashpoint in the Middle East

Al-Monitor reporting shows the increased risks and relevance of water security for Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia; Iran and Iraq; and Israel and Jordan.

Muweis canal of Nile River in northern Egypt


Is Egyptian agriculture at risk due to the lack of an agreement on the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? Here, an aerial view is seen of the Muweis canal of the Nile River and alongside it the villages of (top to bottom) Bani Ishbil, Kafr al-Jirayah and Bandaf in Sharqiyah province of Egypt's fertile northern Nile delta agricultural region, May 28, 2021. - AMIR MAKAR/AFP via Getty Images

Topics Covered
Water Issues

July 23, 2021
The disruption of water supply has long been a potential catalyst for conflict or instability in the arid Middle East. But it’s never been as prominent a risk as it is now.

Nile dam deadlock: Egypt looks to China to help
Ethiopia announced July 19 that it had completed this year's filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which it is building on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River, which provides Egypt with over 90% of its water needs.
Egypt is weighing its next diplomatic steps, as Baher Al-Kady reports. On July 8, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told the UN Security Council that the GERD presents an "existential threat" and that the effect of the potential disruption of water flow to Egypt would be like a "malignant plague."

Tunisia has drafted a resolution to back Egypt’s bid for the council to formally weigh in on behalf of an internationally mediated agreement for the management of the Nile water flows. That resolution is, forgive the metaphor, dead in the water.
"Although the council has acknowledged the severity of the issue with a second meeting in two years on the dispute," we wrote here, "a resolution is still a tough sell. Council members remain uneasy about the precedent of a resolution on 'water issues.'"

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, speaking July 15, said any reduction of Egypt’s water supply is a red line that “cannot be crossed,” adding, “Before anything happens to Egypt, the army and I would have to be gone.”
Disappointed by Moscow’s neutral stance at the Security Council, Cairo is reaching out to China to help break the deadlock, as Amr Eman reports. While Beijing has never been a major diplomatic force in the region, it does have close ties with Addis Ababa. China also is heavily invested in Egypt as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, "as a gateway for Chinese goods into markets on the African continent," Eman writes.
"China is … one of Egypt's largest trading partners, with huge investments in Egypt," Eman continues. "It plans to establish an industrial zone in the Suez Canal region. Chinese companies are also participating in the construction of the New Administrative Capital, a megacity being built on the outskirts of Cairo."

Egypt also is getting a boost from Saudi Arabia, which enjoys good ties with Ethiopia. The kingdom’s tilt toward Egypt in the GERD dispute can be explained by a more assertive posture in the Arab League, which is 100% behind Egypt, and in Red Sea security, as Samuel Ramani explains.
Another interesting angle on the dispute revolves around a potential mediation role for Israel, as Mohamed Saied reports, which also enjoys strong ties with Ethiopia, in addition to its relationship with Egypt. Israel is back as an "observer" to the African Union (AU), as Rina Bassist reports, and eager to press ahead with more normalization agreements on the continent.
The Biden administration, after hearing out Egypt at the Security Council, is throwing its weight behind AU mediation, which for the past year has languished. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke July 20 with Democratic Republic of the Congo President Felix Tshisekedi, who is current chair of the AU, and stressed the importance of mediation on the GERD.

Meanwhile, Egypt is engaged in its own "power" diplomacy with Djibouti, Tanzania and Burundi to counter Ethiopia's plans to use the GERD to create and export hydropower to African countries, as George Mikhail reports, and looks to build its own civilian nuclear power capacity, as Hagar Hosny writes.

Iranian water, power crisis spills over into Iraq
Water is creating tensions elsewhere, too. Iran apparently shut down the internet in restive Khuzestan province, where protests have been occurring over the lack of clean drinking water. Experts say the main cause of the water problems in the southwestern province is unusually low water levels due to drought. Mismanagement of water resources may have also played a role. Activists said security forces killed three protesters.

Iran’s water crisis is not limited to Khuzestan province, but that is where it is more acutely felt, and it is exacerbated by Iran’s energy crisis. Worn down by sanctions, disrepair and mismanagement, the energy and water sectors have been operating erratically, leading to additional protests in Iran.
The fallout is regional. Iraq relies on Iran for a large share of its electricity and power needs.
And in Iraq, too, water supplies are at risk. The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government has called for citizens to ration water due to the decline in groundwater levels because of lack of rain and this year’s drought.

Iraq’s Minister of Water Resources Mahdi Rashid al-Hamdani blames other countries, too. He said shortages result from Iran’s diversion of water from the Karun River to the Gulf rather than the Shatt al-Arab, and Turkey’s failure to comply with its water agreements. Iraq’s primary sources of water, the Tigris and Euphrates, originate in Turkey.

Water key to Israel-Jordan reset
The new Israeli government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and alternate prime minister and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has given priority to a reset in ties with Jordan. And at the top of the reset agenda was water.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu let languish the 2015 the Red-Dead agreement signed with Jordan under the auspices of the World Bank and with big-time support from the United States and international organizations.
The project called for a "giant water pipeline between the Red Sea and the far lower Dead Sea, along which water desalination facilities would be built to benefit both sides of the arid, empty Arava Desert they share, with the remaining water and brine to flow down and replenish the shrinking Dead Sea," writes Ben Caspit. "In return for Jordanian cooperation on this project, Israel committed to supply Jordan with an additional 50 million cubic meters of water produced at an additional desalination plant to the north from which water would flow to the Sea of Galilee and from there to Jordan."

The breakdown in negotiations on the pipeline is blamed, in part, for exacerbating Jordan’s water crisis, writes Osama Al Sharif.
The first item of business for Bennett, on his "secret" mission to Amman earlier this month, was to close the deal.
"According to diplomatic sources," Caspit continues, "Israel is planning a long list of agreements with the kingdom to rehabilitate the relationship and restore several aspects of cooperation, including additional goodwill gestures. Israel is willing to further upgrade the water supply that is crucial for the monarchy’s stability on the condition that Jordan lets Israeli farmers cultivate the border lands that Israel handed back to Jordan in 2019."

After meeting with King Abdullah II on July 20, US President Joe Biden expressed US support for improved Jordan-Israel ties and cited the agreement to provide fresh water to Jordan as an example.
www.al-monitor.com

How water has become a flashpoint in the Middle East

Al-Monitor reporting shows the increased risks and relevance of water security for Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia; Iran and Iraq; and Israel and Jordan.
www.al-monitor.com www.al-monitor.com
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Iran opens new oil terminal on Gulf of Oman to bypass Hormuz

DEBKAFile
Jul 23, 2021 @ 18:01



Outgoing President Hassan Rouhani opened Iran’s new Goreh-Jask port crude oil transfer project on Thursday, July 22, with the loading of the first 100,000-barrel shipment of crude for export. The new terminal on the Gulf of Oman, allows ships headed into the Arabian Sea and beyond to avoid the strategically vulnerable narrow Strait of Hormuz. It is designed to handle 350,000 barrels per day and reach one million bpd in two years.

“This is a strategic move and an important step for Iran,” Rouhani said in a televised speech on Thursday. “It will secure the continuation of our oil exports. It also shows the failure of US sanctions,” he said.

Iran has also built a 1,000km pipeline to carry its crude to the new terminal. in the southeast. Iran’s main oil export terminal is located at the port of Kharg inside the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway less than 40 km across at its narrowest point. “We had a terminal and if there was a problem, our oil exports could be cut off,” Rouhani explained.

Iran produced 2.47 bpd in June, according to latest available figures from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

“The implementation of the Goreh-Jask port project took place with about $2 billion investment,” Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, and claimed “It will win back the Iranian oil market from rival countries.”

Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil from the Middle East to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond. The focus of international tension for decades, Tehran has often threatened to block Hormuz to the world’s shipping.

Iran opens new oil terminal on Gulf of Oman to bypass Hormuz - DEBKAfile
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
To Deter Iran, Give Israel a Big Bomb
Dennis Ross

5-7 minutes


With negotiations paused until a new hardline administration takes office in Tehran, the chances of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal anytime soon are not bright. Moreover, even successful talks might not stop Iran’s leaders from pursuing nuclear weapons. The Biden administration needs to find a better way to deter them.
It’s still possible, perhaps even likely, that the desire for sanctions relief will prompt the Iranians to rejoin the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, once they conclude the U.S. will make no further concessions. That would roll back some of Iran’s recent advances, including its enrichment of uranium to 60% purity and its production of uranium metal, used in nuclear warheads.

Returning to the status quo ante, though, will also highlight the original deal’s fundamental shortcomings — its fast-approaching sunset clauses, most notably. When the JCPOA’s key provisions lapse in 2030, there will be no limits on the size of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the number or types of centrifuges it can run, or even the amount of weapons-grade fissile material it may possess or produce. By 2023, just two years from now, there will be no limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles, very effective delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons.

The fact that the Biden administration hopes to reach a “longer and stronger” follow-on agreement reflects its recognition that the JCPOA is not sufficient. The trouble is, incoming Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has made it clear that Iran has no interest in such a deal. Inducements rarely, if ever, alter Iran’s behavior and are unlikely to change the minds of either Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or the new president.
Nor is Iran’s insistence that it doesn’t intend to develop nuclear weapons credible. If that were true, the regime could have pursued far less costly alternatives to building its own extensive enrichment capability. Establishing a civil nuclear industry to generate electricity, using fuel furnished from outside the country, was always an option — one that Iran consistently rejected. Evidence of its work on designing nuclear warheads, revealed in the nuclear archive Israel ferreted out of Tehran, only confirms its interest in a weapons program.

If the U.S. cannot persuade Iran to temper such ambitions using carrots, which seems unlikely given Iran’s determined pursuit of a large nuclear infrastructure, it must find more effective sticks. To start, the Biden administration should reframe its stated objective and be clear the U.S. is determined to stop Iran not just from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but from being able to produce a bomb quickly. It’s very likely Iran hopes to become a threshold nuclear weapons state similar to Japan, which does not have a nuclear weapon but has all the means to produce one very quickly. Unlike Japan, Iran is a threat to its neighbors and must not be in a position where it could effectively present the world with a nuclear weapons fait accompli at a time of its choosing.

The Biden administration should thus tighten its declaratory policy to say Iran will not be allowed to become a nuclear weapons threshold state. In theory, negotiations could defer such an outcome. One way to do so would be to extend the JCPOA’s sunset clauses for another 10 to 20 years. A better alternative would be to impose strict limits on Iran’s production capabilities and the numbers and types of centrifuges it can run, in perpetuity.

If Raisi’s government continues to reject follow-on talks, however, the U.S. must make the costs of pursuing a threshold capability far clearer. To do so, the Biden administration should consider providing Israel the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound mountain-buster, as some in Congress have advocated. Such a weapon could be used to destroy Fordow, the underground Iranian enrichment facility, as well as other hardened nuclear sites.

Of course, the White House would need to reach a firm understanding with the Israelis about triggers for the bomb’s use. But being prepared to provide Israel with such a fearsome weapon and leasing the B-2 bomber to deliver it would send a powerful message. The Iranians may doubt whether the U.S. would follow through on its threats; they won’t have any trouble believing the Israelis will.
In fact, providing the GBU-57 to Israel may be the best inducement for Iran to negotiate a “longer and stronger” deal. Only then might the regime accept that the U.S. is serious about preventing Iran from acquiring a threshold status — and that Iran risks its entire nuclear infrastructure in the absence of an agreement limiting it. Under such circumstances, Iran’s leaders will have an incentive to get something now for accepting an outcome that the U.S. and Israel might otherwise impose.

(Corrects spelling of Massive Ordnance Penetrator in eighth paragraph. )
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Dennis Ross at dross@washingtoninstitute.org
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Nisid Hajari at nhajari@bloomberg.net
www.bloomberg.com

To Deter Iran, Give Israel a Big Bomb

The best way to ensure Tehran doesn’t gain the capability to make a nuclear weapon is for the U.S. to empower its ally.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
Zagdid

Zagdid

Veteran Member
www.timesofisrael.com

Russia says its air defense systems in Syria intercepted Israeli missiles

Hezbollah, Iranian commanders reported killed in Israeli strikes; Russian military official says 7 of 8 Israeli missiles struck down this week
www.timesofisrael.com www.timesofisrael.com

Russia says its air defense systems in Syria intercepted Israeli missiles
Hezbollah, Iranian commanders reported killed in Israeli strikes; Russian military official says 7 of 8 Israeli missiles struck down this week
By TOI STAFF Today, 12:16 am


Russian anti-aircraft artillery systems in Syria intercepted a number of missiles launched by Israel in airstrikes this week in an area southeast of Aleppo, according to a Russian military official.

The strikes were reported to have killed senior Hezbollah and Iranian fighters.

Vadim Kulit, deputy chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, told the Russian news agency TASS on Tuesday that Israeli fighter jets fired eight guided missiles on Monday, seven of which were intercepted by Russia’s Pantsyr-S and Buk-M2 systems, both self-propelled, medium-range surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft systems.

“In a span from 23:39 to 23:51 on July 19, four F-16 fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force entered Syria’s airspace via the US-controlled al-Tanf zone and fired eight guided missiles at facilities southeast of the city of Aleppo,” said Kulit, according to the TASS report.

“One missile damaged the building of a research center in the settlement of Safira in the Aleppo governorate,” he said.

The comments came amid a new report on Saturday that Russia has “run out of patience” with Israel in Syria and is planning a shift in its policies toward Israeli sorties over the country, according to the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat which cited an unnamed “well-informed” Russian source.

Syrian media reported two Israeli attacks this past week, on Monday night and early Thursday. It claimed that in both cases most missiles were shot down — though Syria has regularly made such claims in the past, in what Syrian war analysts have generally believed to be empty boasts.

But on Saturday, the Saudi-based Al-Arabiya news network reported that Imad al-Amin, a military commander for Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy whose members have fought in Syria on behalf of Bashar Assad’s forces, was killed in one of the Israeli airstrikes this week.

Hezbollah confirmed on Telegram that al-Amin was killed “while fulfilling his duties” but did not specify when or how, Israel’s Kan public broadcaster reported on Saturday night.

Al-Arabiya also reported that a senior official in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Sayed Ahmed Qurayshi, was killed under unknown circumstances in Syria this week. There has been no official confirmation from Iran.
The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Qurayshi has been based in Syria since 2013 and had “participated in many military operations alongside Qassem Soleimani,” the former commander of the IRGC’s al-Quds Brigade who was killed by the US in January 2020.

Earlier Saturday, Asharq Al-Awsat cited an unnamed Russian source as saying that following talks with Washington, Moscow had got the impression that “Washington does not welcome the continuous Israeli raids,” and thus believes it has the freedom to act more aggressively to thwart them.

In light of this, the Russians were now supplying Syrian forces with more advanced anti-missile systems and know-how, making them more capable of shooting down Israeli armaments, the report said.

It claimed the effect of this was already being seen, with Syrian air defenses shooting down seven of eight Israeli missiles during a July 19 Israeli raid.

Israel’s military does not comment on reports of specific strikes in Syria save for those that are in retaliation for attacks from the country.

Israel has launched hundreds of strikes against Iran-linked military targets in Syria over the years but rarely acknowledges or discusses such operations. Jerusalem fears Iranian entrenchment on its northern frontier, and it has repeatedly struck Iran-linked facilities and weapons convoys destined for Hezbollah.

Russia has repeatedly criticized Israeli strikes over the years.

In January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Jerusalem should provide Moscow with intelligence about suspected threats so that it can “neutralize” them, rather than attack them itself.

“If Israel is really forced to respond to threats to the Israeli security coming from the Syrian territory, we have told our Israeli colleagues many times: if you see such threats, please give us the information,” Lavrov said at the time.

Russia has deployed a large military presence in Syria to support Assad through his country’s brutal civil war. In order to prevent unwanted clashes, Jerusalem and Moscow have maintained a so-called deconfliction mechanism, which has allowed the two countries to effectively communicate with one another and avoid altercations.

This mechanism has been generally successful, with the notable exception of an incident in September 2018, in which a Russian spy plane was shot down by a Syrian anti-aircraft missile that had been fired in response to an Israeli attack.

Moscow blamed Israel for the deaths of the troops on board the aircraft, saying Israeli planes had hidden behind the Russian aircraft, a charge that the Israel Defense Forces fiercely denied.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.....

Posted for fair use.....
www.al-monitor.com

Intel: US to announce agreement to pull 'combat troops' from Iraq

Security will be at top of agenda for US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue today, and when US President Joe Biden hosts Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on July 26.
www.al-monitor.com www.al-monitor.com

Intel: US to announce agreement to pull 'combat troops' from Iraq
Security will be at top of agenda for US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue today, and when US President Joe Biden hosts Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on July 26.

July 23, 2021
US and Iraqi officials are preparing a statement that will likely mention a time frame for the withdrawal of American “combat troops” from Iraq by the end of the year, a US official confirmed.

The announcement is expected to be released following Kadhimi’s meeting with President Joe Biden on Monday, The Wall Street Journal first reported Thursday.

A military delegation led by Iraq’s national security adviser met with top Pentagon officials on Thursday to lay groundwork for the latest round of dialogue between the two governments, which will include discussion of the presence of US forces in Iraq, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters.

The initial discussions were led by Iraq’s national security adviser Qassem al-Araji and the Defense Department’s top official for international security, Mara Karlin. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also briefly attended the meeting on Thursday, according to a Pentagon statement.

Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein is set to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken today to launch the US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue. Hussein said earlier this week that the meetings will focus on setting a timetable for the withdraw of remaining US “combat troops” from Iraq.

Kadhimi told The Washington Post last week that he plans to ask Biden to withdraw US combat troops from Iraq, but to leave US military advisers and intelligence support in place.

“We don’t need any more fighters because we have those,” Hussein was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying. “What do we need? We need cooperation in the field of intelligence. We need help with training. We need troops to help us in the air.”

What they’re saying: The US has roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq, and there are no drawdown orders as yet, two US officials told Al-Monitor.

Washington appears to be offering Kadhimi a win ahead of the elections in October by agreeing to withdraw some coalition forces designated as “combat troops."

"I think everyone has understood that there will come a time when there is no longer a need for US combat forces inside Iraq,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters on Thursday.

Asked by Al-Monitor, however, Kirby couldn’t say roughly how many combat troops remain there.

“We haven’t had so-called combat troops in Iraq for a year,” other than a few elite forces under Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), a US military official who recently served in a senior role in the US-led coalition told Al-Monitor.

The official expressed skepticism at what he saw as an apparent move to rebrand some coalition troops, adding that Iran-backed militias don't differentiate between US military advisers and infantry. "They see Americans as Americans," the official said.

The United States withdrew roughly half if its 5000 forces from Iraq last year. The large majority of those remaining serve as advisers to Iraqi military commanders and brigade security team members in the wake of the multinational war against the Islamic State.

The US-led coalition handed over eight bases to Iraq’s military before consolidating at locations in Baghdad, Anbar province and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region last year.

“In fact, we’ve never had many combat troops since the beginning of [anti]-ISIS operations in 2014,” the current official said.

“Coalition troops were always in an advisory role,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Why it matters: Kadhimi is facing threats from pro-Iran militias and the Fatah bloc in Iraq’s parliament, which continue to demand the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

The Iraqi prime minister — seen by Washington as Iraq’s most capable leader in decades --- has rebuilt ties to the Gulf and the Levant, while resisting the growing influence of pro-Iran militias.
Iraq is scheduled to hold early elections in October.

Iraq’s parliament passed a non-binding resolution last year to oust US forces after former President Donald Trump ordered Iranian spymaster Qassem Soleimani assassinated in a drone strike in Baghdad. The assassination turned Soleimani, who was revered by a number of pro-Iran militias supported by his Quds Force over the years, into a martyr.

The de facto head of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Units, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and other personnel were also killed in the strike.

What’s next: Expect a statement following Kadhimi’s meeting with Biden on Monday about the withdrawal of combat forces from Iraq, but don't expect many troops to be coming home just yet. The US-led coalition will retain its current advisory, training and support functions, as part of its presence in Iraq, as Al-Monitor reported last week.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
hmm I thought we only had advise/assist folks there... so desperate to capitulate that they redefine things retroactively?
Housecarl said:
Hummm.....

Posted for fair use.....
www.al-monitor.com

Intel: US to announce agreement to pull 'combat troops' from Iraq

Security will be at top of agenda for US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue today, and when US President Joe Biden hosts Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on July 26.
www.al-monitor.com www.al-monitor.com

Intel: US to announce agreement to pull 'combat troops' from Iraq
Security will be at top of agenda for US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue today, and when US President Joe Biden hosts Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on July 26.

July 23, 2021
US and Iraqi officials are preparing a statement that will likely mention a time frame for the withdrawal of American “combat troops” from Iraq by the end of the year, a US official confirmed.

The announcement is expected to be released following Kadhimi’s meeting with President Joe Biden on Monday, The Wall Street Journal first reported Thursday.

A military delegation led by Iraq’s national security adviser met with top Pentagon officials on Thursday to lay groundwork for the latest round of dialogue between the two governments, which will include discussion of the presence of US forces in Iraq, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters.

The initial discussions were led by Iraq’s national security adviser Qassem al-Araji and the Defense Department’s top official for international security, Mara Karlin. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also briefly attended the meeting on Thursday, according to a Pentagon statement.

Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein is set to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken today to launch the US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue. Hussein said earlier this week that the meetings will focus on setting a timetable for the withdraw of remaining US “combat troops” from Iraq.

Kadhimi told The Washington Post last week that he plans to ask Biden to withdraw US combat troops from Iraq, but to leave US military advisers and intelligence support in place.

“We don’t need any more fighters because we have those,” Hussein was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying. “What do we need? We need cooperation in the field of intelligence. We need help with training. We need troops to help us in the air.”

What they’re saying: The US has roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq, and there are no drawdown orders as yet, two US officials told Al-Monitor.

Washington appears to be offering Kadhimi a win ahead of the elections in October by agreeing to withdraw some coalition forces designated as “combat troops."

"I think everyone has understood that there will come a time when there is no longer a need for US combat forces inside Iraq,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters on Thursday.

Asked by Al-Monitor, however, Kirby couldn’t say roughly how many combat troops remain there.

“We haven’t had so-called combat troops in Iraq for a year,” other than a few elite forces under Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), a US military official who recently served in a senior role in the US-led coalition told Al-Monitor.

The official expressed skepticism at what he saw as an apparent move to rebrand some coalition troops, adding that Iran-backed militias don't differentiate between US military advisers and infantry. "They see Americans as Americans," the official said.

The United States withdrew roughly half if its 5000 forces from Iraq last year. The large majority of those remaining serve as advisers to Iraqi military commanders and brigade security team members in the wake of the multinational war against the Islamic State.

The US-led coalition handed over eight bases to Iraq’s military before consolidating at locations in Baghdad, Anbar province and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region last year.

“In fact, we’ve never had many combat troops since the beginning of [anti]-ISIS operations in 2014,” the current official said.

“Coalition troops were always in an advisory role,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Why it matters: Kadhimi is facing threats from pro-Iran militias and the Fatah bloc in Iraq’s parliament, which continue to demand the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

The Iraqi prime minister — seen by Washington as Iraq’s most capable leader in decades --- has rebuilt ties to the Gulf and the Levant, while resisting the growing influence of pro-Iran militias.
Iraq is scheduled to hold early elections in October.

Iraq’s parliament passed a non-binding resolution last year to oust US forces after former President Donald Trump ordered Iranian spymaster Qassem Soleimani assassinated in a drone strike in Baghdad. The assassination turned Soleimani, who was revered by a number of pro-Iran militias supported by his Quds Force over the years, into a martyr.

The de facto head of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Units, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and other personnel were also killed in the strike.

What’s next: Expect a statement following Kadhimi’s meeting with Biden on Monday about the withdrawal of combat forces from Iraq, but don't expect many troops to be coming home just yet. The US-led coalition will retain its current advisory, training and support functions, as part of its presence in Iraq, as Al-Monitor reported last week.
Click to expand...
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
jward

jward

passin' thru
The withdrawal that wasn’t

By LARA SELIGMAN, NAHAL TOOSI and QUINT FORGEY
07/26/2021 03:55 PM EDT
Updated 07/26/2021 05:53 PM EDT
Presented by


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No, President JOE BIDEN is not withdrawing all U.S. troops from Iraq.

The commander in chief and Iraqi Prime Minister MUSTAFA AL-KADHIMI touted an agreement to end the U.S. combat mission there by the end of the year during a much-anticipated Oval Office meeting this afternoon. But don’t expect the vast majority of American forces in the country to return home anytime soon.

Biden and al-Kadhimi’s agreement formally establishes an end date for the U.S. combat role in Iraq — but only on paper. In reality, no American troops have fought in combat in Iraq for more than a year, defense officials said. Instead, the 2,500 troops on the ground, including special forces, are focused on training and supporting the Iraqis actively battling the Islamic State with airstrikes, logistics and intelligence. That mission will continue, officials said.

Experts and former military officials say the announcement today was more of a symbolic gesture than a concrete shift, designed to boost al-Kadhimi ahead of parliamentary elections this fall. “It looks more like a rebranding exercise designed to help [al-Kadhimi] politically and throw a bone to those Iraqi groups that have joined the push for a troop withdrawal,” said ARON LUND, a fellow at The Century Foundation. “I think everyone realizes there’s a bit of theater involved here.”

“It is a game of appearances more than substance,” added RYAN CROCKER, a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq.

Meanwhile, former Brig. Gen. MARK KIMMITT — a former top Pentagon official in the Bush administration and deputy director of operations and chief military spokesperson in Iraq — said the situation on the ground will not change. “If the non-combat intelligence, advisory and logistic missions continue with the same troop levels, it is unlikely this decision will have a significant operational impact,” Kimmitt said.

The new agreement isn’t even really new. In fact, U.S. and Iraqi officials agreed last spring that the time had come for Iraqi forces to conduct independent operations and for American forces to focus more heavily on an advisory role. That shift was made official in an April joint statement, although a timetable was not specified for the transition.

Biden aides dispute the notion that the announcement is purely symbolic. A senior administration official, speaking Friday on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic, said to expect “adjustments” between now and the end of the year as American forces in Iraq complete the shift — meaning that some special forces could leave or be reassigned.

On Monday, alongside the Iraqi leader, Biden laid out his vision for the change: “Our role in Iraq will be as a — dealing with not — it’s just to be available. To continue to train, to assist, to help and to deal with ISIS as it arrives,” he said. “But we’re not going to be, by the end of the year, in a combat mission.”


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jward said:
hmm I thought we only had advise/assist folks there... so desperate to capitulate that they redefine things retroactively?
Click to expand...
www.politico.com

The withdrawal that wasn’t

www.politico.com www.politico.com
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Why do I get the feeling that this is going to not go as sold, particularly given how well it went for Obama?.....

Posted for fair use.....
www.aljazeera.com

US combat forces to leave Iraq by end of year

After more than 18 years, the role of US forces will shift to training and advising the Iraqi military to defend itself.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com

US combat forces to leave Iraq by end of year, Biden says
After more than 18 years, the role of US forces will shift to training and advising the Iraqi military to defend itself.
26 Jul 2021
|
Updated:
2 hours ago
US President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on Monday sealed an agreement formally ending the US combat mission in Iraq by the end of 2021, more than 18 years after US troops were sent to the country.

Coupled with Biden’s withdrawal of the last American forces in Afghanistan by the end of August, the Democratic president is completing US combat missions in the two wars that then-President George W Bush began under his watch.

KEEP READING
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Biden and Kadhimi met in the Oval Office for their first face-to-face talks as part of a strategic dialogue between the United States and Iraq.

“Our role in Iraq will be … to be available, to continue to train, to assist, to help and to deal with ISIS as it arises, but we’re not going to be, by the end of the year, in a combat mission,” Biden told reporters as he and Kadhimi met.



Play Video




There are currently 2,500 US troops in Iraq focusing on countering the remnants of ISIL (ISIS). The US role in Iraq will shift entirely to training and advising the Iraqi military to defend itself.

The shift is not expected to have a major effect since the United States has already moved towards focusing on training Iraqi forces.

A US-led coalition invaded Iraq in March 2003 based on charges that then-Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s government possessed weapons of mass destruction. Saddam was removed from power, but such weapons were never found.

In recent years the US mission was dominated by helping defeat ISIL in Iraq and Syria.
“Nobody is going to declare mission accomplished. The goal is the enduring defeat of ISIS,” a senior administration official told reporters ahead of Kadhimi’s visit.

The reference was reminiscent of the large “Mission Accomplished” banner on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier above where Bush gave a speech declaring major combat operations over in Iraq on May 1, 2003.

“If you look to where we were, where we had Apache helicopters in combat, when we had US special forces doing regular operations, it’s a significant evolution. So by the end of the year we think we’ll be in a good place to really formally move into an advisory and capacity-building role,” the official said.




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Kadhimi is seen as friendly to the United States and has tried to check the power of Iran-aligned fighter groups. But his government condemned a US air raid against Iran-aligned fighters along its border with Syria in late June, calling it a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

The United States plans to provide Iraq with 500,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine under the global COVAX vaccine-sharing programme. Biden said the doses should arrive in a couple of weeks.

The United States will also provide $5.2m to help fund a UN mission to monitor October elections in Iraq.

“We support strengthening Iraqi’s democracy and we’re anxious to make sure the election goes forward in October,” Biden said.

Meanwhile Kadhimi faces no shortage of problems. In addition to the rise in attacks against US forces in recent months, a series of devastating hospital fires left dozens of people dead and soaring coronavirus infections – adding fresh layers of frustration for the nation.

For Kadhimi, the ability to offer the Iraqi public a date for the end of the US combat presence could be a feather in his cap before the election.

SOURCE: NEWS AGENCIES

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H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....
www.bbc.com

US combat forces to leave Iraq by end of year

The move, while largely symbolic, could provide a domestic boost to both the US and Iraqi leaders.
www.bbc.com

US combat forces to leave Iraq by end of year
Published 5 hours ago

President Joe Biden says US forces will end their combat mission in Iraq by the end of this year, but will continue to train and advise the Iraqi military.

The announcement came after Mr Biden held talks with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi at the White House.

There are currently 2,500 US troops in Iraq helping local forces counter what remains of the Islamic State group.

Numbers of US troops are likely to stay the same but the move is being seen as an attempt to help the Iraqi PM.

The US presence in Iraq has become a major issue since top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and the leader of an Iran-backed Shia Muslim militia were killed in a US drone strike in the capital Baghdad last year.

Political parties aligned to Iran have demanded the withdrawal of all forces from the US-led global coalition against IS, despite the continuing threat posed by the Sunni jihadist group.

Shia militias have meanwhile been accused by the US of carrying out hundreds of rocket, mortar and drone attacks on Iraqi military bases that host coalition forces in an apparent attempt to pressure them to leave.

For the US president, the announcement marks the end of another war that began under former President George W Bush. This year he said US troops would leave Afghanistan.
Speaking at the White House, Mr Biden told his Iraqi counterpart "our counter-terrorism co-operation will continue even as we shift to this new phase."

Mr Kadhimi responded: "Today our relationship is stronger than ever. Our co-operation is for the economy, the environment, health, education, culture and more." He has insisted no foreign combat troops are needed in Iraq.

US-led forces invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow President Saddam Hussein and eliminate weapons of mass destruction that turned out not to exist.

Then President George W Bush promised a "free and peaceful Iraq", but it was engulfed by a bloody sectarian insurgency.

US combat troops eventually withdrew in 2011. However, they returned at the request of the Iraqi government three years later, when IS militants overran large parts of the country.

Following the military defeat of IS in Iraq at the end of 2017, US forces remained to help prevent a resurgence of the group.

"Our role in Iraq will be dealing with being available to continue to train, to assist, to help and deal with ISIS as it arrives," Mr Biden added at the meeting.

"But we're not going to be, by the end of the year, in a combat mission."

Advantage Iran?
Analysis box by Frank Gardner, security correspondent

Ever since Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 it has been trying to evict US forces from its neighbourhood and become the premier power in the region.

It has had little success in the Arab Gulf states where mistrust of Tehran runs deep and where the US military has facilities in all six countries.

But the US-led toppling of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq removed the most effective obstacle to Iranian expansion, and Tehran has not passed up on the opportunity since then. It has successfully inserted its Shia militias into the fabric of Iraq's security establishment, and its allies have a powerful voice in parliament.

Syria's civil war has opened the door for a major Iranian military presence there, while next door in Lebanon Iran's ally Hezbollah has become the most potent force in the country.

Iran is playing the long game. Its leaders hope that if it keeps up the pressure, both overt and covert, it will eventually make the Middle East a region not worth America's effort to stay engaged in, militarily.

Hence the frequent rocket attacks on US bases and Iran's support for civil protest calling for US troops to leave.

An agreement that sees the end of US combat operations in Iraq will be seen by many in Tehran as a step in the right direction.

Read more from Frank on why Iran, and not IS, stands to gain from the US move
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Guy Elster
@guyelster
1h

#BREAKING #Iran claims it has foiled a Mossad's spy network that planned sabotage acts across the country


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Iran says it detains agents working for Israel, seizes arms cache
Reuters


2 minute read
DUBAI, July 27 (Reuters) - Iran said on Tuesday its security forces had arrested a network of agents working for Israel and had seized a cache of weapons it said were planned for use during recent unrest sparked by water shortages in the Islamic Republic, state media reported.
Iran often accuses its enemies or rivals abroad, such as Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia, of trying to destabilise the country by stoking protests and violence.
Tuesday's announcement came after nearly two weeks of protests over water shortages, mostly in southwest Iran, which have turned political and spread to other areas. read more
Authorities have accused armed dissidents of provoking clashes during the street protests. Human rights groups say security forces have opened fire on protesters.

"Mossad operatives intended to use the equipment in urban riots and assassinations," an Intelligence Ministry official said, according to state media, referring to Israel's intelligence agency. The official did not give details.
The seized weapons included pistols, grenades, assault rifles and ammunition, the unnamed official said, adding: "Some of these are used to provoke clashes during protests."
There was no immediate comment from Israeli officials.
Reporting by Dubai newsroom; Editing by Edmund Blair
www.reuters.com

Iran says it detains agents working for Israel, seizes arms cache

Iran said on Tuesday its security forces had arrested a network of agents working for Israel and had seized a cache of weapons it said were planned for use during recent unrest sparked by water shortages in the Islamic Republic, state media reported.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Last edited:
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....
gulfnews.com

Iraq: Rockets hit Baghdad Green Zone, no casualties

Initial investigations indicate rockets targetted US embassy, but fell short
gulfnews.com gulfnews.com

Iraq: Rockets hit Baghdad Green Zone, no casualties

Initial investigations indicate rockets targetted US embassy, but fell short



Published: July 29, 2021 13:58 Reuters

Also in this package

Baghdad: At least two rockets hit Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone early on Thursday but caused no casualties, Iraqi security sources said.

One senior Iraqi security official said the rockets were launched from a neighbourhood in eastern Baghdad and initial investigations indicate the rockets were targeting the US embassy, but fell short.

One rocket landed in a parking lot inside the Green Zone and a second one hit a nearby empty area, said the sources.

Thursday’s attack comes two days after US President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi sealed an agreement on Monday formally ending the US combat mission in Iraq by the end of 2021.

Prime Minister Kadhimi has been facing increasing pressure from Iran-aligned parties and paramilitary groups who oppose the US military role in the country.

US diplomats and troops in Iraq and Syria were targeted in three rocket and drone attacks earlier this month, including one in which at least 14 rockets hit an Iraqi air base hosting US forces. Two US service members were wounded.

While there were no immediate claims of responsibility for the attacks - part of a wave targeting US troops or areas where they are based in Iraq and Syria - analysts believed they were part of a campaign by Iranian-backed militias.

The Green Zone hosts foreign embassies and government buildings and is regularly the target of rockets fired by groups that US and Iraqi officials say are backed by Iran.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru




Farzin Nadimi, PhD فرزین ندیمی
@FarzinNadimi

British maritime authorities reported attacks targeting ships on July 29 at approximate location 152 nm NE of Duqm, Oman, and again on July 30 about 86 nm SE of Duqm. These attacks (if the work of Iran) are significant becus they took place the port where US 5th flt & other...(1)
...Western naval vessels (incl US carrier strike groups) conduct port calls for scheduled logistics & maintenance. So attacks could (also) be a message to the Americans that your carriers aren't safe down there either. (2)
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Ismaeel Naar, Al Arabiya English

Published: 30 July ,2021: 07:40 PM GST Updated: 30 July ,2021: 07:57 PM GST



A hostile attempt by the Iran-backed Houthis to attack a Saudi commercial vessel with a drone has been thwarted, the Arab Coalition confirmed in a statement.
“The Iran-backed Houthis along with their Iranian support continues to threaten global shipping marine routes. Our efforts have contributed to securing the freedom of navigation and the safety of ships transiting through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait,” the Arab Coalition said in a statement.
For the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis confirmed on Friday they had seized two districts in central al-Bayda province, amid an ongoing battle for control of the government stronghold of Marib further north.
The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, has repeatedly expressed its willingness to see an end to the yearslong war, which has resulted in one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes in the world.
But the Houthis have refused to engage in ceasefire talks. The Houthis have rejected a meeting with the UN special envoy for Yemen, escalated an offensive on one of the final government strongholds in the north of Yemen and continuously attack Saudi Arabia with bomb-laden drones and missiles.

english.alarabiya.net

Arab Coalition thwarts ‘hostile Houthi attempt’ to attack Saudi commercial ship

A hostile attempt by the Iran-backed Houthis to attack a Saudi commercial vessel with a drone has been thwarted, the Arab Coalition confirmed in a
english.alarabiya.net english.alarabiya.net
 
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