marsh
On TB every waking moment
Estonian FM says one percent of US GDP should go to Ukraine .18 min
Just The News
2 hours ago
Just The News
2 hours ago
GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread
- Thread starter marsh
- Start date
marsh
On TB every waking moment
NOW IT COMES OUT 12:59 min
Russell Brand
3 hours ago
Russell Brand
3 hours ago
NOW IT COMES OUT
A little-noticed provision of the omnibus spending bill could give the FDA power to control how your doctor advises you. Good job there are no ties between the FDA and Big Pharma that might influence which medication they will push and which they won’t.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
[UK]
London Truth Be Told Rally: Giving A Voice To The Vaccine-Injured And Bereaved 1:48 min
Sunfellow On COVID-19
3 hours ago
London Truth Be Told Rally: Giving A Voice To The Vaccine-Injured And Bereaved 1:48 min
Sunfellow On COVID-19
3 hours ago
London Truth Be Told Rally: Giving A Voice To The Vaccine-Injured And Bereaved
Truth Be Told London, a demonstration outside BBC Broadcasting House, Portland Place, London on 21st January, 2023. Watch the complete four-hour event here:
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Is Joe Biden Being Targeted by the 4th Branch of Government? 2:06 min
RealAmericasVoice
4 hours ago
RealAmericasVoice
4 hours ago
Is Joe Biden Being Targeted by the 4th Branch of Government?
(No summary given. Did not watch.)
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Chat GPT Is About To Take Hundreds Of Thousands Of Jobs In 2023 5:11 min
The Economic Ninja
6 hours ago
^^^^^
In the next five years, it is likely that AI will begin to reduce employment for college-educated workers. As the technology continues to advance, it will be able to perform tasks that were previously thought to require a high level of education and skill. This could lead to a displacement of workers in certain industries, as companies look to cut costs by automating processes. While it is difficult to predict the exact extent of this trend, it is clear that AI will have a significant impact on the job market for college-educated workers. It will be important for individuals to stay up to date on the latest developments in AI and to consider how their skills and expertise can be leveraged in a world where machines are increasingly able to perform many tasks.
There you have it, I guess: ChatGPT is coming for my job and yours, according to ChatGPT itself. The artificially intelligent content creator, whose name is short for “Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer,” was released two months ago by OpenAI, one of the country’s most influential artificial-intelligence research laboratories. The technology is, put simply, amazing. It generated that first paragraph instantly, working with this prompt: “Write a five-sentence paragraph in the style of The Atlantic about whether AI will begin to reduce employment for college-educated workers in the next five years.”
ChatGPT is just one of many mind-blowing generative AI tools released recently, including the image generators Midjourney and DALL-E and the video generator Synthesia. The upside of these AI tools is easy to see: They’re going to produce a tremendous amount of digital content, quickly and cheaply. Students are already using ChatGPT to help them write essays.
Businesses are using ChatGPT to create copy for their websites and promotional materials, and to respond to customer-service inquiries. Lawyers are using it to produce legal briefs (ChatGPT passes the torts and evidence sections of the Multistate Bar Examination, by the way) and academics to produce footnotes.
Yet an extraordinary downside is also easy to see: What happens when services like ChatGPT start putting copywriters, journalists, customer-service agents, paralegals, coders, and digital marketers out of a job? For years, tech thinkers have been warning that flexible, creative AI will be a threat to white-collar employment, as robots replace skilled office workers whose jobs were once considered immune to automation. In the most extreme iteration, analysts imagine AI altering the employment landscape permanently. One Oxford study estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs might be at risk.
No single technology in modern memory has caused mass job loss among highly educated workers. Will generative AI really be an exception? No one can answer this question, given how new the technology is and given how slowly employment can adjust in response to technological change. But AI really is different, technology experts told me—a range of tasks that up until now were impossible to automate are becoming automatable. “Before, progress was linear and predictable. You figured out the steps and the computer followed them. It followed the procedure; it didn’t learn and it didn’t improvise,” the MIT professor David Autor, one of the world’s foremost experts on employment and technological change, told me. ChatGPT and the like do improvise, promising to destabilize a lot of white-collar work, regardless of whether they eliminate jobs or not.
People and businesses are just figuring out how to use emerging AI technologies, let alone how to use them to create new products, streamline their business operations, and make employees more efficient. If history is any guide, this process could take longer than you might think. Consider electricity. The circuit, electric lights, and rudimentary electric motors were developed in the early 1800s. But another century passed before the widespread adoption of electricity in the United States began to lift GDP. Or take computers. They became commercially available in the early 1950s but did not show up in the productivity stats until the late 1990s.
Some technologies clearly improve productivity and reduce the need for labor. Automated machine tools, for instance, depress manufacturing employment while lifting output and productivity, as do many of the forms of machinery invented and employed since the Industrial Revolution. But other technologies—even amazing ones—show surprisingly muted effects. How about the internet, which has revolutionized almost every facet of communications in the past four decades? Despite altering how we date and talk and read and watch and vote and emote and record our own life stories, launching a zillion businesses, and creating however many fortunes, the internet “fails the hurdle test as a Great Invention,” the economist Robert Gordon argued in 2000, because it “provides information and entertainment more cheaply and conveniently than before, but much of its use involves substitution of existing activities from one medium to another.” Nearly a quarter century later, the internet still hasn’t spurred a productivity revolution. Smartphones haven’t either.
So is AI like the smartphone or is it like an automated machine tool? Is it about to change the way that work gets done without eliminating many jobs in aggregate, or is it about to turn San Francisco into the Rust Belt?
Predicting where technology will cause job losses is hard, Autor noted. Remember the freak-out several years ago over the possibility of self-driving automobiles eliminating work for truck drivers? But AI is much more flexible than a system like Excel, much more creative than a Google Doc. What’s more, AI systems get better and better and better as they get more use and absorb more data, whereas engineers often need to laboriously and painstakingly update other types of software.
As a rule, when companies can substitute machines for people, they will. AI can do work currently done by paralegals, copywriters, digital-content producers, executive assistants, entry-level computer programmers, and, yes, some journalists. That means such jobs might change, and soon. But even if ChatGPT can spit out a pretty good paragraph on AI, it can’t interview AI and labor experts, nor can it find historical documents, nor can it assess the quality of studies of technological change and employment. It creates content out of what is already out there, with no authority, no understanding, no ability to correct itself, no way to identify genuinely new or interesting ideas. That implies that AI might make original journalism more valuable and investigative journalists more productive, while creating an enormous profusion of simpler content. AI might spit out listicles and summaries of public meetings, while humans will write in-depth stories. “In many ways, AI will help people use expertise better,” Autor said. “It means that we’ll specialize more.”
AI could also make a wide variety of industries more efficient, with muted effects on overall employment. Matt Wampler is a co-founder of an AI-powered small business called ClearCOGS. He’s been a “restaurant guy” his whole career, he told me. Restaurants and grocery stores, he says, tend to run on thin margins, yet still tend to waste a considerable amount of food. People order more spaghetti than burgers; buns get thrown out.
“Restaurants just lag behind on technology,” he told me. “They’re all about people. It’s people serving people; it’s people managing people. And in that very human-centric world, the default way of handling problems is to hand it to a person. Phil’s going to do it.”
ClearCOGS takes restaurants’ customer-order history, supply data, and labor data and uses AI-powered modeling to make their books leaner and more profitable. If people are starting to order more spaghetti than burgers, the system will prompt the chef or manager to buy more pasta and fewer rolls. “We put this in place in some of my cousin’s sandwich shops,” Wampler told me. “Simple answers to simple questions. The question they needed answered was, there’s an assistant manager on the night shift and a couple hours before close, he has to decide whether to bake another tray of bread or not. We provide that answer.” This use of ChatGPT isn’t eliminating human jobs, really; neighborhood sandwich joints aren’t hiring McKinsey consultants. But it might make food service more efficient as a whole.
Even if it doesn’t boost the economy, AI could still change the texture of our lives and alter how we spend our time, like social media did before it. Video games might become more immersive. Shops might have far better copywriting and sales visuals. Movies might look cooler. Videos in the depths of YouTube might become far weirder and more beautiful. We might also see far more formulaic content than we already do. (Much more ominously, there might be a huge amount of plausible-seeming disinformation online.)
For workers, Autor noted, the great risk is that AI technologies cause too sudden a change in what kind of labor employers want. Certain specializations might get wiped out, leaving thousands of call-center operators or marketing workers unemployed. But he stressed the benefits of having such technology in our hands. Productivity has languished for decades. Machines doing a little more work would have a big upside, after all.
The Economic Ninja
6 hours ago
Chat GPT Is About To Take Hundreds Of Thousands Of Jobs In 2023
^^^^^
How ChatGPT Will Destabilize White-Collar Work
Annie Lowrey, The Atlantic January 23, 2023How ChatGPT Will Destabilize White-Collar Work
Opinion by Annie Lowrey • FridayIn the next five years, it is likely that AI will begin to reduce employment for college-educated workers. As the technology continues to advance, it will be able to perform tasks that were previously thought to require a high level of education and skill. This could lead to a displacement of workers in certain industries, as companies look to cut costs by automating processes. While it is difficult to predict the exact extent of this trend, it is clear that AI will have a significant impact on the job market for college-educated workers. It will be important for individuals to stay up to date on the latest developments in AI and to consider how their skills and expertise can be leveraged in a world where machines are increasingly able to perform many tasks.
There you have it, I guess: ChatGPT is coming for my job and yours, according to ChatGPT itself. The artificially intelligent content creator, whose name is short for “Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer,” was released two months ago by OpenAI, one of the country’s most influential artificial-intelligence research laboratories. The technology is, put simply, amazing. It generated that first paragraph instantly, working with this prompt: “Write a five-sentence paragraph in the style of The Atlantic about whether AI will begin to reduce employment for college-educated workers in the next five years.”
ChatGPT is just one of many mind-blowing generative AI tools released recently, including the image generators Midjourney and DALL-E and the video generator Synthesia. The upside of these AI tools is easy to see: They’re going to produce a tremendous amount of digital content, quickly and cheaply. Students are already using ChatGPT to help them write essays.
Businesses are using ChatGPT to create copy for their websites and promotional materials, and to respond to customer-service inquiries. Lawyers are using it to produce legal briefs (ChatGPT passes the torts and evidence sections of the Multistate Bar Examination, by the way) and academics to produce footnotes.
Yet an extraordinary downside is also easy to see: What happens when services like ChatGPT start putting copywriters, journalists, customer-service agents, paralegals, coders, and digital marketers out of a job? For years, tech thinkers have been warning that flexible, creative AI will be a threat to white-collar employment, as robots replace skilled office workers whose jobs were once considered immune to automation. In the most extreme iteration, analysts imagine AI altering the employment landscape permanently. One Oxford study estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs might be at risk.
No single technology in modern memory has caused mass job loss among highly educated workers. Will generative AI really be an exception? No one can answer this question, given how new the technology is and given how slowly employment can adjust in response to technological change. But AI really is different, technology experts told me—a range of tasks that up until now were impossible to automate are becoming automatable. “Before, progress was linear and predictable. You figured out the steps and the computer followed them. It followed the procedure; it didn’t learn and it didn’t improvise,” the MIT professor David Autor, one of the world’s foremost experts on employment and technological change, told me. ChatGPT and the like do improvise, promising to destabilize a lot of white-collar work, regardless of whether they eliminate jobs or not.
People and businesses are just figuring out how to use emerging AI technologies, let alone how to use them to create new products, streamline their business operations, and make employees more efficient. If history is any guide, this process could take longer than you might think. Consider electricity. The circuit, electric lights, and rudimentary electric motors were developed in the early 1800s. But another century passed before the widespread adoption of electricity in the United States began to lift GDP. Or take computers. They became commercially available in the early 1950s but did not show up in the productivity stats until the late 1990s.
Some technologies clearly improve productivity and reduce the need for labor. Automated machine tools, for instance, depress manufacturing employment while lifting output and productivity, as do many of the forms of machinery invented and employed since the Industrial Revolution. But other technologies—even amazing ones—show surprisingly muted effects. How about the internet, which has revolutionized almost every facet of communications in the past four decades? Despite altering how we date and talk and read and watch and vote and emote and record our own life stories, launching a zillion businesses, and creating however many fortunes, the internet “fails the hurdle test as a Great Invention,” the economist Robert Gordon argued in 2000, because it “provides information and entertainment more cheaply and conveniently than before, but much of its use involves substitution of existing activities from one medium to another.” Nearly a quarter century later, the internet still hasn’t spurred a productivity revolution. Smartphones haven’t either.
So is AI like the smartphone or is it like an automated machine tool? Is it about to change the way that work gets done without eliminating many jobs in aggregate, or is it about to turn San Francisco into the Rust Belt?
Predicting where technology will cause job losses is hard, Autor noted. Remember the freak-out several years ago over the possibility of self-driving automobiles eliminating work for truck drivers? But AI is much more flexible than a system like Excel, much more creative than a Google Doc. What’s more, AI systems get better and better and better as they get more use and absorb more data, whereas engineers often need to laboriously and painstakingly update other types of software.
As a rule, when companies can substitute machines for people, they will. AI can do work currently done by paralegals, copywriters, digital-content producers, executive assistants, entry-level computer programmers, and, yes, some journalists. That means such jobs might change, and soon. But even if ChatGPT can spit out a pretty good paragraph on AI, it can’t interview AI and labor experts, nor can it find historical documents, nor can it assess the quality of studies of technological change and employment. It creates content out of what is already out there, with no authority, no understanding, no ability to correct itself, no way to identify genuinely new or interesting ideas. That implies that AI might make original journalism more valuable and investigative journalists more productive, while creating an enormous profusion of simpler content. AI might spit out listicles and summaries of public meetings, while humans will write in-depth stories. “In many ways, AI will help people use expertise better,” Autor said. “It means that we’ll specialize more.”
AI could also make a wide variety of industries more efficient, with muted effects on overall employment. Matt Wampler is a co-founder of an AI-powered small business called ClearCOGS. He’s been a “restaurant guy” his whole career, he told me. Restaurants and grocery stores, he says, tend to run on thin margins, yet still tend to waste a considerable amount of food. People order more spaghetti than burgers; buns get thrown out.
“Restaurants just lag behind on technology,” he told me. “They’re all about people. It’s people serving people; it’s people managing people. And in that very human-centric world, the default way of handling problems is to hand it to a person. Phil’s going to do it.”
ClearCOGS takes restaurants’ customer-order history, supply data, and labor data and uses AI-powered modeling to make their books leaner and more profitable. If people are starting to order more spaghetti than burgers, the system will prompt the chef or manager to buy more pasta and fewer rolls. “We put this in place in some of my cousin’s sandwich shops,” Wampler told me. “Simple answers to simple questions. The question they needed answered was, there’s an assistant manager on the night shift and a couple hours before close, he has to decide whether to bake another tray of bread or not. We provide that answer.” This use of ChatGPT isn’t eliminating human jobs, really; neighborhood sandwich joints aren’t hiring McKinsey consultants. But it might make food service more efficient as a whole.
Even if it doesn’t boost the economy, AI could still change the texture of our lives and alter how we spend our time, like social media did before it. Video games might become more immersive. Shops might have far better copywriting and sales visuals. Movies might look cooler. Videos in the depths of YouTube might become far weirder and more beautiful. We might also see far more formulaic content than we already do. (Much more ominously, there might be a huge amount of plausible-seeming disinformation online.)
For workers, Autor noted, the great risk is that AI technologies cause too sudden a change in what kind of labor employers want. Certain specializations might get wiped out, leaving thousands of call-center operators or marketing workers unemployed. But he stressed the benefits of having such technology in our hands. Productivity has languished for decades. Machines doing a little more work would have a big upside, after all.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
SPACE RACE: China Using South America to Get into Space
China sees outer space as a new frontier in civil and military technology, and it's determined to dominate it. Because of its location directly opposite China, South America is essential to China's am
rumble.com
China Uncensored
8 hours ago
SPACE RACE: China Using South America to Get into Space
China sees outer space as a new frontier in civil and military technology, and it's determined to dominate it. Because of its location directly opposite China, South America is essential to China's ambitions in space. In this episode of China Uncensored, we look at the space infrastructure China has already built in South America, why China's space program is clearly not peaceful or civilian in nature, and how China's space program overlaps with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
marsh
On TB every waking moment
CCP Donated $54 Million to Him?! 10:53 min
Awaken With JP
8 hours ago
^^^^
House Oversight Chair: China Donations To Penn-Biden Center May Have Influenced US Policy | ZeroHedge (Previously posted)
The chair of the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday demanded that the University of Pennsylvania - home to the infamous Penn-Biden center where classified documents were found in November - answer questions over anonymous donations from China, based on concerns that the CCP may have bought influence with the Biden administration.
Awaken With JP
8 hours ago
CCP Donated $54 Million to Him?!
(Biden ties with CCP)^^^^
House Oversight Chair: China Donations To Penn-Biden Center May Have Influenced US Policy | ZeroHedge (Previously posted)
House Oversight Chair: China Donations To Penn-Biden Center May Have Influenced US Policy
WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 - 08:45 AMThe chair of the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday demanded that the University of Pennsylvania - home to the infamous Penn-Biden center where classified documents were found in November - answer questions over anonymous donations from China, based on concerns that the CCP may have bought influence with the Biden administration.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
The Dead Witness, Government Lies and Coverups
For additional great content and to join the Operation Freedom Team, please visit: davejanda.com Do you own a business and seek to insulate yourself and it from the growing trend of financial cancel c
rumble.com
OPERATION FREEDOM
8 hours ago
The Dead Witness, Government Lies and Coverups
(Lt. Col. Craig Roberts - no summary given. Have not watched)
marsh
On TB every waking moment
6:37 min
EXPOSED: The True Tyranny of Climate Change | @LevinTV
BlazeTV
Jan 23, 2023
Mobility equals freedom. Freedom to roam, and discover and enjoy life with friends and family until... you can't. That's because the Big Marxist Government wants to dictate what's best for you. As the Left ramps up their social engineering strategy, they are expanding their war on fossil fuels and gas cars, while monitoring roads and transportation, to determine when and how far you can travel. Now Mark reveals their endgame: a slow and steady squeeze designed to constrict your rights and freedoms. Mark is sounding the alarm. Control is the coin of the realm, and your individuality and liberty are the bargaining chips.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
6:57 min
This Is A Real Estate Trap...
The Economic Ninja
Jan 23, 2023
The economic ninja talks about the housing market 2023 and how home buyers are looking for the best mortgage rate today and are getting sucked into a mortgage rate buydown and this will end badly. The phoenix housing market and the las Vegas housing market is in trouble and it will get worse.
^^^^^
Mortgage rate buydowns are on the rise as homebuyers cope with high interest rates
Story by Bailey Schulz, USA TODAY • 3h agoAnna Raymond was ready to make the switch from renting to owning a home last spring. But after five failed offers, she and her husband decided to take a step back from house hunting.
Inflation, higher interest rates could help buyers in the 2022 housing market
Then, in December, their real estate agent presented an offer too good to pass. A home in Longmont, Colorado, was up for sale, and the seller was willing to offer a 2-1 interest rate buydown.
The concession would lower the Raymonds' 5.75% contract interest rate 2% in the first year and 1% in the second year, so they'll pay just 3.75% interest in the first year and 4.75% in the second year before returning to 5.75% in the third. Raymond said they expect to save about $250 a month during their first year as homeowners.
“I think for them, they just wanted a quick sell and for us, we wanted a good price. And so we were able to both be happy in the process,” Raymond, 28, said. “We figure we can refinance within a couple of years and, worst-case scenario, if we don't, our salaries will catch up.”
Though buyers can't be sure interest rates will drop by the time they're ready to refinance, mortgage rate buydowns have become a popular strategy to attract buyers who may otherwise be hesitant to purchase a home under today's high interest rates.
What are mortgage rate buydowns?
A recent report from RedFin found a record number of seller concessions – offers like mortgage rate buydowns that help reduce costs – in the fourth quarter, especially among cooling “pandemic boomtowns” like Phoenix and Las Vegas."About almost 100% of the clients that I've had the opportunity to work with since the fourth quarter of last year, even now, are exercising that interest rate by concession from the seller," said San Diego-based real estate agent Andre Mejia of Connect Realty. "The market has finally shifted."
Are mortgage buydowns worth it?
Now that high interest rates have cooled housing demand, gone are the days of abundant bidding wars and all-time-high listing prices."Sellers don't want their houses to sit on the market," said Bud Kawa, a Detroit-based realtor at Brick and Stone Real Estate. "They are willing to help out buyers more than they were in the last year."
Buyers received concessions in 42% of home sales in the fourth quarter, according to RedFin's January report. It’s the highest quarterly share since at least July 2020, when the real estate brokerage started keeping record.
“We still have some demand, but houses are staying on the market significantly longer than what people were used to,” Washington-based real estate agent Howard Veal of Home Realty Ventures at Keller Williams Puget Sound told USA TODAY. “So the lenders, as they often do, got creative.”
Though a majority of buydowns are negotiated between buyers and lenders, sellers and builders also can offer the concession to attract buyers without reducing the listing price. It can be a major incentive after interest rate hikes; the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.15%, up from 3.56% the same week a year ago, according to Freddie Mac.
“Maybe you’ve got to put in new carpet, you want to paint, you’ve got appliances you want to buy. (A buydown) keeps money in your pocket so you can invest in things that you as the homebuyer think that you might need to do,” said Bill Banfield, executive vice president of capital markets for Rocket Mortgage. The loan provider started offering a temporary 1-0 buydown dubbed the “inflation buster” last year.
How do mortgage rate buydowns work?
Some common types of buydowns include:- The 1-0 buydown, in which the contract interest rate drops 1% for the first year of the loan.
- The 2-1 buydown, in which the rate drops 2% for the first year and 1% the second year before returning to the contract rate in the third year.
- The 3-2-1 buydown, in which the interest rate drops 3% the first year, 2% the second year and 1% the third year before returning to the contract rate in the fourth year.
Which markets are seeing buydowns?
According to RedFin, metro areas with the greatest share of home sales with concessions in the fourth quarter include:- San Diego: 73%
- Phoenix: 63%
- Portland: 62%
- Las Vegas: 61%
- Denver: 58%
marsh
On TB every waking moment
AI and White-Collar Jobs | Davos 2023 | World Economic Forum
World Economic Forum
Jan 23, 2023
Recent breakthroughs in machine learning mean that increasingly complex cognitive tasks and creative production can be automated. Are the implications of these developments being overstated, or are we approaching an inflection point and a new disruptive era for knowledge workers? Speakers: Ina Fried, Lauren Woodman, Sir Martin Sorrell, Mihir Shukla, Erik Brynjolfsson
marsh
On TB every waking moment
45:31 min
Advancing Racial and Ethnic Equity | Davos 2023 | World Economic Forum
World Economic Forum
Jan 23, 2023
Despite progress in mainstreaming diversity and inclusion in the corporate environment, racial and ethnic equity efforts remain fragmented. How can organizations foster growth and increase stakeholder trust through addressing racial and ethnic equity within their operations worldwide? This session is directly linked to the ongoing Partnering for Racial Justice Initiative of the World Economic Forum. Speakers: Larry Madowo, Angela Williams, Simon Freakley, Luana de Souza Martins Génot, Pamela Carter
marsh
On TB every waking moment
5:07 min
'Something isn't right here': Pompeo reacts to Biden document scandal
Fox News
Jan 23, 2023
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo joined 'Fox & Friends' to discuss Biden's classified document scandal and his new book, 'Never Give an Inch,' set to be released Tuesday.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
17:19 min
EU Panelist Claims Hate Speech Laws Are Coming To The US SOON During WEF Conference
Timcast IRL
9 hours ago
(May not be able to pass a hate speech aw, but can make free speech impossible through Big Tech, Big banks)
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Social Security Will Be Bankrupt By 2033 On Current Trajectory: CBO Report
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 02:40 PMAuthored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,
A recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that two major Social Security funds in the United States will dry out in the coming decades, with one of them running out within the next 10 years as younger members in the programs are set to lose more than older members.
“If the gap between the trust funds’ outlays and income occurs as CBO projects, then the balance in the trust funds will decline to zero in 2033 and the Social Security Administration will no longer be able to pay full benefits when they are due,” the CBO stated in its report, published in December (pdf).
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2033 and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2048, the agency said. If the trust funds are combined, the money will be gone by 2033.
The CBO expects spending on Social Security to increase to 7 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2096, up from 5 percent of the GDP in 2022.
During this period, revenues are only expected to remain at 4.6 percent of GDP, resulting in an ongoing deficit.
If Social Security outlays were limited to what is payable from annual tax revenues, the benefit payments would be roughly 23 percent smaller than originally scheduled by 2034. By 2096, the benefit payments would be 35 percent smaller, with the gap remaining stable from then on.
In such a situation, the younger cohort born in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s would see their initial benefits reduced by 24, 27, and 28 percent respectively. Their lifetime benefits would be reduced by 26, 27, and 27 percent, respectively.
For older beneficiaries born in the 1950s and 60s, initial benefits would not be affected too much. Their lifetime benefits would be reduced by 9 percent and 19 percent, respectively.
Protecting Social Security of Senior Citizens
In 2021, Social Security amounted to 17 percent of federal spending, according to the CBO. Lawmakers are currently debating how to address America’s debt ceiling issue, with some proposing cuts to Social Security. The United States officially hit its debt limit on Thursday.
In a video message, former President Donald Trump called on GOP members to not compromise on Social Security.
“Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security to help pay for Joe Biden’s reckless spending spree, which is more reckless than anybody’s ever done or had in the history of our country,” Trump said in the statement posted to Truth Social on Friday.
“Do not cut the benefits our seniors worked for and paid for their entire lives,” he said. “Save Social Security. Don’t destroy it.”
The CBO projections come as Social Security benefits are set to increase by 8.7 percent in 2023, which is the biggest boost in four decades. In 2022, benefit payments were increased by 5.9 percent.
Despite the record increase in benefit payments this year, there are concerns about whether it will be enough to keep up with decades-high inflation.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
US NatGas Prices Soar After Freeport "Completed Repairs" Of Damaged Terminal, Aims For Partial Restart | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
US NatGas Prices Soar After Freeport "Completed Repairs" Of Damaged Terminal, Aims For Partial Restart
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 02:20 PMUS natural gas futures jumped late in the session after news hit that Freeport LNG, a major liquefied natural gas export terminal on the Texas coast which has been closed since an explosion last summer, said repairs to the terminal are complete and is seeking approval for restart.
Freeport wrote a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) requesting permission to restart the terminal that accounts for about 15% of all US LNG exports.
Pursuant to your letter dated June 30, 2022, Freeport LNG Development, LP ("Freeport") must obtain written approval from FERC before restarting any non-emergency operations in existing facilities, constructing new or modified facilities, and commissioning and placing any facilities back into service.
As further described herein, Freeport has completed repairs to the Export Facility on Quintana Island, Texas, performed safety reviews, revised various procedures, implemented new safety systems and performed necessary training in order to safely begin to resume initial operations at its Export Facility.
NatGas surged 9% to $3.45 per million British thermal units.
NatGas prices will need to hold the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level ($3.41) if further upside is to be achieved.
In recent weeks, we've pointed out Freeport flows were indications the plant was nearing a restart:
- NatGas Flows Start To Freeport LNG's Long-Shut Export Plant
- Freeport LNG Export Facility's Power Flows Surge For First Time Since Explosion
Criterion's weekly analysis of progress at Freeport LNG indicated that repair work was still taking place as of last week, so it's unclear what Freeport means when it cited that they have "completed repairs." We don't believe feed gas will be flowing in January, and February still seems to be an optimistic time frame for strong nominations. Based on prior announcements, once they get the green light to restart, Freeport's timeline pinned down a ramp from zero to 2 Bcf/d over an approximately two-month period.
Here's Freeport's full letter to FERC:
(Scribd doc on website)
Download this PDF
Any February cold weather across the Lower 48, plus the Freeport export restart, could be bullish catalysts for reversing months of sliding NatGas prices.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
404 | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
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2023: Fourth Turning Meets Mass Formation Psychosis
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 02:00 PMAuthored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,
“Four things need to exist or need to be in place if you want a large-scale mass phenomenon to emerge. The first thing is that there needs to be a lot of socially isolated people, people who experience a lack of social bonds. The second one is that there needs to be a lot of people who experience a lack of sense-making in life. And the third and the fourth conditions are that there needs to be a lot of free-floating anxiety and a lot of free-floating psychological discontent. So: meaning, anxiety, and discontent that is not connected to a specific representation.
So, it needs to be in the mind without the people being able to connect it to something. If you have these four things—lack of social bonds, lack of sense-making, free-floating anxiety, and free-floating psychological discontent—then society is highly at risk for the emergence of mass phenomenon.”
– Mattias Desmet – The Psychology of Totalitarianism
“Try to unlearn the obsessive fear of death (and the anxious quest for death avoidance) that pervades linear thinking in nearly every modern society. The ancients knew that, without periodic decay and death, nature cannot complete its full round of biological and social change. Without plant death, weeds would strangle the forest. Without human death, memories would never die, and unbroken habits and customs would strangle civilization. Social institutions require no less. Just as floods replenish soil and fires rejuvenate forests, a Fourth Turning clears out society’s exhausted elements and creates an opportunity.”
– Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
I recently finished reading Mattias Desmet’s fascinating and illuminating book The Psychology of Totalitarianism, where he examines the mass formation psychosis which swept over the world during the time frame of early 2020 until present day. He explores some of the root causes of this psychological phenomena, comparing it to previous episodes in history, and delving into whether it occurred naturally or was purposely generated in order to implement a Great Reset agenda.
This type of spectacle has happened throughout human history, even documented by Charles Mackay in his 1841 book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It is clear to me aspects of mass formation psychosis played a part in the previous two Fourth Turnings, as both sides in the U.S. Civil War displayed characteristics of those being hypnotized by a narrative, and the German people falling under the spell of Hitler and his rhetorical skills.
As the potentially historic year 2023 unfolds before us, we are confronted with a world drowning in unpayable debt; a global recession/depression imminent; raging inflation at twice the level reported by our overlords; real unemployment at four times the level reported by the government apparatchiks; a government completely devoid of honesty, integrity or responsibility to its citizens; a society dictated by corruption, materialism, narcissism, and bereft of civic and personal responsibility; globalist billionaires and their captured organizations (WEF, WHO, NATO, CDC, FDA, FBI, CIA, DOJ, IRS) actively trying to rule the world through technological and biological means; and insane politicians, generals, and bureaucrats pushing the world towards WWIII, using Ukraine and Taiwan as their trigger points.
In the midst of this hellish landscape, we still have an enormous percentage of the U.S. and global population trapped in a mass formation psychosis trance and unable or unwilling to regain their common sense and ability to comprehend they have been duped, used, lied to, and sacrificed at the altar of the Great Reset.
I feel like I’m in a Twilight Zone episode, waiting for the surprise ending, as I continue to go through the motions of life, getting up at the same time every morning, driving the same route to work, doing the same job, going grocery shopping, doing laundry, reading, writing, and waiting for the bottom to drop out. I think I know what is going to happen, but I don’t, and neither does anyone else, no matter how sure they appear and how well compensated they are for providing “expert” opinions.
I’ve been waiting since 2010 for a financial/economic collapse, but the “powers that be” have been able to create a Potemkin façade built upon debt, money printing, propaganda, and market manipulation, much like Madoff juggling balls for decades (never making one actual trade), giving the appearance of stability and success, until he could juggle no more. Then it all collapses suddenly, just as many of the vaxxed thought they were safe, then died suddenly. The Hemingway quote regarding going bankrupt captures our current state of affairs:
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” – Ernest Hemingway – The Sun Also Rises
The reason no one is expecting a sudden collapse is because it hardly ever happens. We are trapped in our normalcy bias cocoon. The stock market goes up for a week. The stock market goes down for a week. The “experts” try to interpret the meaning of each word uttered by Powell or one of his Fed cronies. Elections are held to see which group of corrupt politicians will be in control of screwing us. Biden says something stupid. Harris says something stupid.
Trump sells NFT trading cards of himself. Twitter files are released. Covidian cultists continue to deny the reality the jabs are killing and maiming millions, while still pushing the toxic injections on our children.
Drag queen shows for children and transgender deviancy are heralded by satanists. We send another $100 billion we don’t have to an actor in Ukraine so more of his people can be slaughtered. Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, and the rest of the global elite fly in their private jets to Davos to plan their takeover of the world. Climate imbeciles want to ban your gas stove, make you eat bugs, and never venture more than 15 minutes from your hovel. It’s an endless show and we are both the spectators and victims. The daily distractions of life, along with trivialities like social media, sporting events, mass media propaganda, and this government shitshow, keep the masses from seeing the danger dead ahead.
Whenever I’m befuddled by the incontestable idiocy of the willfully ignorant masses, I have to remind myself we are in the midst of a Fourth Turning where reason and critical thinking are far outweighed by emotion and temporary insanity. As a cynical old bastard who hasn’t believed anything a politician, banker or MSM talking head has emitted in decades, it is hard for me to comprehend how the majority are so easily swayed by the web of lies spun by those pulling the strings behind the curtain.
They want to believe “experts” because thinking is hard, and the latest NFL playoff game starts in 30 minutes. We’ve become a nation of unserious, unintelligent, uncurious, unthinking worshippers of technology, entertainment, and infantilism, as described by Neil Postman in his 1985 book comparing Orwell dystopian vision to Huxley’s dystopian vision. It seems we are now caught in a vise between both visualizations of horror.
“When a population becomes distracted by trivia, when cultural life is redefined as a perpetual round of entertainments, when serious public conversation becomes a form of baby-talk, when, in short, a people become an audience, and their public business a vaudeville act, then a nation finds itself at risk; culture-death is a clear possibility.”
- Neil Postman – Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business
“Americans no longer talk to each other, they entertain each other. They do not exchange ideas, they exchange images. They do not argue with propositions; they argue with good looks, celebrities, and commercials.”
- Neil Postman – Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business
Huxley warned us over 90 years ago, before TV. Postman warned us almost 40 years ago, before the internet, 24-hour cable TV, smart phones, or social media. They were prescient in their warnings, but unheeded. Their prophecies tie in perfectly with Desmet’s theories on why the world has been overcome by this mass formation psychosis. Essentially, Desmet argues our society was sick before the onset of covid. The technological “advancement” of our world has led to people leading meaningless lives and working bullshit jobs.
The rise of the administrative state where hard fulfilling jobs (farmers, craftsmen, builders) have been replaced by finance and administrative paper pushing jobs where human interaction is drastically reduced and their worlds revolve around rules, regulations, and impersonal dogma, has created tens of millions of depressed, anxious, neurotic people seeking something to make their pitiful lives worthwhile. The most meaningless administrative jobs steadily increase and are rewarded more generously, while the hardest workers struggle to put food on the table. Industrialization and specialization may be efficient from a corporate profit standpoint, but it has been dehumanizing from a psychological standpoint.
Part 1 of 2
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Part 2 of 2
The Enlightenment brought about a transformation of a world built upon religion, superstition, and small communities into a world built on science, reason, and industrialization. The fear and discomfort, once inflicted by the clergy and nobility, with the dread of judgement day, transformed into a false hope of a scientific created nirvana. As the centuries have progressed the social connectedness of humans has deteriorated, with isolation and lack of social relationships leading to anxiety, depression, and loss of purpose.
Humans used to depend on each other and live for each other, but are now relegated to being nameless, faceless automatons among the masses. Half the workers in America find their jobs meaningless. A 2013 Gallup World Poll found that 63% of workers sleepwalk through their jobs, while another 24% are disengaged, actively demoralizing, and demotivating their coworkers. Only 13% love what they do. Most people just feel like a cog in the machine, as Desmet contemplates.
“The worker became, as they say, a cog in the industrial machine, lubricated only by the thought of wages due. Labor changed from a cumbersome but inherently meaningful existential task into a disembodied utilitarian necessity.”
- Mattias Desmet, The Psychology of Totalitarianism
As work became nothing more than a means to earn wages, in order to consume and amuse themselves, the rise of mass media has further contributed to the decline in sincere social connections, as TV and the internet have further isolated millions and allowed those constituting the invisible government to propagandize whatever narrative suits their malevolent purposes.
Those in power don’t want neighbors congregating, mates gathering in pubs, joyous festivals of friends, or anyone sitting around kitchen tables figuring out how they’ve been screwed over by those they elect to represent their interests. Their plans depend on a populace living in constant fear of something, or they might inadvertently turn their attention to their looting and pillaging of the world’s wealth. Fear is the basis for the mass formation psychosis currently consuming the world.
Decades of psychological deterioration of the masses due to their pointless occupations, meaningless lives, mass media and government school indoctrination, and feelings of purposelessness, despair, and anxiety set the foundation for the onset of this covid driven mass formation psychosis. The free-floating anxiety infecting hundreds of millions around the globe was seeking a conduit to channel their fears and fantasizing about becoming part of a crusade for the greater good.
All that was needed was a virus with a scary name, a billion-dollar marketing campaign, a narrative spun by a well-compensated media, corrupt politicians and Deep State actors seeking to depose a president, and a plethora of unethical “experts” willing to sell their souls to Big Pharma. Once the covid narrative was connected to their free-floating anxiety a global swindle was born.
“Free-floating anxiety is the most painful psychological phenomenon someone can experience. It’s extremely painful. It leads up to panic attacks, to all kinds of extremely painful psychological experiences. What people want in this situation is something to connect their anxiety to. They’re looking for an explanation for the anxiety. And now, if this free-floating anxiety is highly present in a population, and the media provide a narrative, which indicates an object of anxiety, and at the same time, describe a strategy to deal with this object of anxiety, then all the anxiety connects to this object and people are willing to follow the strategy to deal with this object, no matter what the cost is. That is what happens in the beginning of mass formation.”
- Mattias Desmet – The Psychology of Totalitarianism
Fear and anxiety are the lifeblood of a mass hysteria event. An already psychologically damaged populace was primed to react insanely to an entirely overblown “crisis”, spurred on by bad actors who sought riches, notoriety, acclaim, and the ability to impose authoritarian measures on the masses as proof of their power and supremacy. This unjustified fear about a flu virus has resulted in far greater problems which should really be feared. The onset of this psychological tsunami of fear has resulted in the rise of a dictatorial state, with presidents, governors, mayors, and lower-level tin pot totalitarians issuing decrees, mandates, and commands with the threat of imprisonment, loss of jobs, fines, or beatings as the immediate consequence for not obeying.
This absurd terrified reaction by the masses has destroyed millions of small businesses; severed the bonds between family, friends, and neighbors; wrecked our economy; handed unlimited power to corrupt malicious politicians; provoked societal chaos; empowered deviants to gain cultural traction; destroyed the health of millions through the collapse of immune systems; and will trigger both civil and global warfare in the immediate future.
The truth is mental health has been declining for decades, as meaningless jobs, government school indoctrination and dumbing down of the populace, technology creating generations of socially awkward shut-ins, cultural decay, corporatism, and the ineptitude and corruption of political leadership, have created an atmosphere of hopelessness and angst. Depression, anxiety, suicides, drug addiction, and a slew of psychological disorders infected the world before this virus ever appeared.
Over 13% of adults take anti-depressants, with almost 25% of women over 60. The results are similar for Europe. A general malaise had settled across the world as we entered 2020. The latent fear and anxiety in society, combined with little knowledge of viruses and inadequate critical thinking skills, created a perfect storm of social panic and a willingness to believe whatever they were told by people who proclaimed to know the answers and pretended to be experts. The covid cause provided the fearful with meaning in their otherwise woeful lives.
The covid narrative gave frightened people purpose to their existence. They became mentally intoxicated they were part of an army, fighting to defeat this evil virus for the greater good of humanity. Once this belief took hold, the central mechanism of mass formation was firmly in control, and they would believe whatever they were instructed to believe. They became myopically focused on their imminent deaths, unless they masked, social distanced, locked down, and obeyed every dictate of their covidian savior – Saint Anthony Fauci, a petty life-long government bureaucrat playing out his totalitarian Napoleon complex fantasies, while reaping Big Pharma riches and Big Media accolades.
Once the covidian cult was formed, it no longer mattered whether the narrative was blatantly wrong. It didn’t matter that masks didn’t work, social distancing was a farce, lockdowns were worthless, ivermectin worked, ventilators and Remdesivir killed people, or the survival rate for anyone under 70 years old was 99.9%. It wasn’t about facts and reason. The covidian cult had a purpose and they didn’t want to go back to their wretched pointless lives. Desmet describes this process of mass formation psychosis.
“This process yields a psychological gain. Firstly, the anxiety that previously roamed through society as a tenebrous fog is now linked to a specific cause and can be mentally controlled via the strategy put forward in the story. Secondly, through a common struggle with “the enemy,” the disintegrating society regains its coherence, energy, and rudimentary meaning. For this reason, the fight against the object of anxiety then becomes a mission, laden with pathos and group heroism. Thirdly, in this fight all latent brewing frustration and aggression is taken out, especially on the group that refuses to go along with the story and the mass formation. This brings an enormous release and satisfaction to the masses, which they will not let go of easily.”
- Mattias Desmet – The Psychology of Totalitarianism
Desmet believes the masses and the leaders they choose to follow are spellbound by the ideologically produced storyline, both under a form of hypnosis which is exceedingly difficult to interrupt. The hypnosis is deepened and fostered by the relentless mass media propaganda spewed across the airwaves and internet by organizations benefiting from the panic and fear.
The Deep State corporatocracy which has replaced our Constitutional Republic takes advantage of every fabricated “crisis” by expanding their wealth, power, and control over a populace which has been indoctrinated to believe the lies, misinformation, and propaganda pronounced by the overlords they are told to worship and obey. I think Desmet accurately assess the percentage of people enthralled by the narrative and completely under the spell of the false plot. Approximately 30% of people are completely hypnotized, with 40% to 60% not hypnotized but choosing to go along with the crowd, and a minority of 10% to 30% who resist the narrative and actively push back.
Considering only 30% of the adult population didn’t let themselves be injected with the untested, experimental, Big Pharma enriching gene therapy, which was guaranteed to keep you from catching covid according to Fauci, Walensky, Biden and numerous other “experts”, it seems like Desmet’s estimates are pretty accurate. Only 10% have been vocal dissenters.
These were the people fired from their jobs, censored on social media, and canceled by friends and family. The mass formation A team were the 30% posting selfies of themselves with masks, shields, vaccine cards, and any other virtue signaling BS showing they were part of the cult, saving the world from this evil virus.
They were also the Karens berating the unmasked, screaming at people closer than six feet, turning in neighbors for breaking the rules, and wishing death upon all the unvaxxed. The cowardice of middle 40% has been the most disappointing aspect of this overhyped flu faux pandemic, as they dutifully submitted to the whims of the cultists – wearing their masks, locking down, avoiding human contact, obeying the totalitarian dictates of politicians, believing absurdities spouted by blustering bureaucrats, complying with un-Constitutional mandates, and sheepishly lining up for jabs that didn’t keep them from catching covid, spreading covid, being hospitalized with covid, or dying from covid. These sheepish followers are the pitiful descendants of the German prison guards who claimed they were only following orders during WWII.
In Part 2 of this article I will attempt to relate this mass formation psychosis phenomenon to the waning years of this Fourth Turning, and how they will intertwine and impact the final outcome of this crisis.
The Enlightenment brought about a transformation of a world built upon religion, superstition, and small communities into a world built on science, reason, and industrialization. The fear and discomfort, once inflicted by the clergy and nobility, with the dread of judgement day, transformed into a false hope of a scientific created nirvana. As the centuries have progressed the social connectedness of humans has deteriorated, with isolation and lack of social relationships leading to anxiety, depression, and loss of purpose.
Humans used to depend on each other and live for each other, but are now relegated to being nameless, faceless automatons among the masses. Half the workers in America find their jobs meaningless. A 2013 Gallup World Poll found that 63% of workers sleepwalk through their jobs, while another 24% are disengaged, actively demoralizing, and demotivating their coworkers. Only 13% love what they do. Most people just feel like a cog in the machine, as Desmet contemplates.
“The worker became, as they say, a cog in the industrial machine, lubricated only by the thought of wages due. Labor changed from a cumbersome but inherently meaningful existential task into a disembodied utilitarian necessity.”
- Mattias Desmet, The Psychology of Totalitarianism
As work became nothing more than a means to earn wages, in order to consume and amuse themselves, the rise of mass media has further contributed to the decline in sincere social connections, as TV and the internet have further isolated millions and allowed those constituting the invisible government to propagandize whatever narrative suits their malevolent purposes.
Those in power don’t want neighbors congregating, mates gathering in pubs, joyous festivals of friends, or anyone sitting around kitchen tables figuring out how they’ve been screwed over by those they elect to represent their interests. Their plans depend on a populace living in constant fear of something, or they might inadvertently turn their attention to their looting and pillaging of the world’s wealth. Fear is the basis for the mass formation psychosis currently consuming the world.
Decades of psychological deterioration of the masses due to their pointless occupations, meaningless lives, mass media and government school indoctrination, and feelings of purposelessness, despair, and anxiety set the foundation for the onset of this covid driven mass formation psychosis. The free-floating anxiety infecting hundreds of millions around the globe was seeking a conduit to channel their fears and fantasizing about becoming part of a crusade for the greater good.
All that was needed was a virus with a scary name, a billion-dollar marketing campaign, a narrative spun by a well-compensated media, corrupt politicians and Deep State actors seeking to depose a president, and a plethora of unethical “experts” willing to sell their souls to Big Pharma. Once the covid narrative was connected to their free-floating anxiety a global swindle was born.
“Free-floating anxiety is the most painful psychological phenomenon someone can experience. It’s extremely painful. It leads up to panic attacks, to all kinds of extremely painful psychological experiences. What people want in this situation is something to connect their anxiety to. They’re looking for an explanation for the anxiety. And now, if this free-floating anxiety is highly present in a population, and the media provide a narrative, which indicates an object of anxiety, and at the same time, describe a strategy to deal with this object of anxiety, then all the anxiety connects to this object and people are willing to follow the strategy to deal with this object, no matter what the cost is. That is what happens in the beginning of mass formation.”
- Mattias Desmet – The Psychology of Totalitarianism
Fear and anxiety are the lifeblood of a mass hysteria event. An already psychologically damaged populace was primed to react insanely to an entirely overblown “crisis”, spurred on by bad actors who sought riches, notoriety, acclaim, and the ability to impose authoritarian measures on the masses as proof of their power and supremacy. This unjustified fear about a flu virus has resulted in far greater problems which should really be feared. The onset of this psychological tsunami of fear has resulted in the rise of a dictatorial state, with presidents, governors, mayors, and lower-level tin pot totalitarians issuing decrees, mandates, and commands with the threat of imprisonment, loss of jobs, fines, or beatings as the immediate consequence for not obeying.
This absurd terrified reaction by the masses has destroyed millions of small businesses; severed the bonds between family, friends, and neighbors; wrecked our economy; handed unlimited power to corrupt malicious politicians; provoked societal chaos; empowered deviants to gain cultural traction; destroyed the health of millions through the collapse of immune systems; and will trigger both civil and global warfare in the immediate future.
The truth is mental health has been declining for decades, as meaningless jobs, government school indoctrination and dumbing down of the populace, technology creating generations of socially awkward shut-ins, cultural decay, corporatism, and the ineptitude and corruption of political leadership, have created an atmosphere of hopelessness and angst. Depression, anxiety, suicides, drug addiction, and a slew of psychological disorders infected the world before this virus ever appeared.
Over 13% of adults take anti-depressants, with almost 25% of women over 60. The results are similar for Europe. A general malaise had settled across the world as we entered 2020. The latent fear and anxiety in society, combined with little knowledge of viruses and inadequate critical thinking skills, created a perfect storm of social panic and a willingness to believe whatever they were told by people who proclaimed to know the answers and pretended to be experts. The covid cause provided the fearful with meaning in their otherwise woeful lives.
The covid narrative gave frightened people purpose to their existence. They became mentally intoxicated they were part of an army, fighting to defeat this evil virus for the greater good of humanity. Once this belief took hold, the central mechanism of mass formation was firmly in control, and they would believe whatever they were instructed to believe. They became myopically focused on their imminent deaths, unless they masked, social distanced, locked down, and obeyed every dictate of their covidian savior – Saint Anthony Fauci, a petty life-long government bureaucrat playing out his totalitarian Napoleon complex fantasies, while reaping Big Pharma riches and Big Media accolades.
Once the covidian cult was formed, it no longer mattered whether the narrative was blatantly wrong. It didn’t matter that masks didn’t work, social distancing was a farce, lockdowns were worthless, ivermectin worked, ventilators and Remdesivir killed people, or the survival rate for anyone under 70 years old was 99.9%. It wasn’t about facts and reason. The covidian cult had a purpose and they didn’t want to go back to their wretched pointless lives. Desmet describes this process of mass formation psychosis.
“This process yields a psychological gain. Firstly, the anxiety that previously roamed through society as a tenebrous fog is now linked to a specific cause and can be mentally controlled via the strategy put forward in the story. Secondly, through a common struggle with “the enemy,” the disintegrating society regains its coherence, energy, and rudimentary meaning. For this reason, the fight against the object of anxiety then becomes a mission, laden with pathos and group heroism. Thirdly, in this fight all latent brewing frustration and aggression is taken out, especially on the group that refuses to go along with the story and the mass formation. This brings an enormous release and satisfaction to the masses, which they will not let go of easily.”
- Mattias Desmet – The Psychology of Totalitarianism
Desmet believes the masses and the leaders they choose to follow are spellbound by the ideologically produced storyline, both under a form of hypnosis which is exceedingly difficult to interrupt. The hypnosis is deepened and fostered by the relentless mass media propaganda spewed across the airwaves and internet by organizations benefiting from the panic and fear.
The Deep State corporatocracy which has replaced our Constitutional Republic takes advantage of every fabricated “crisis” by expanding their wealth, power, and control over a populace which has been indoctrinated to believe the lies, misinformation, and propaganda pronounced by the overlords they are told to worship and obey. I think Desmet accurately assess the percentage of people enthralled by the narrative and completely under the spell of the false plot. Approximately 30% of people are completely hypnotized, with 40% to 60% not hypnotized but choosing to go along with the crowd, and a minority of 10% to 30% who resist the narrative and actively push back.
Considering only 30% of the adult population didn’t let themselves be injected with the untested, experimental, Big Pharma enriching gene therapy, which was guaranteed to keep you from catching covid according to Fauci, Walensky, Biden and numerous other “experts”, it seems like Desmet’s estimates are pretty accurate. Only 10% have been vocal dissenters.
These were the people fired from their jobs, censored on social media, and canceled by friends and family. The mass formation A team were the 30% posting selfies of themselves with masks, shields, vaccine cards, and any other virtue signaling BS showing they were part of the cult, saving the world from this evil virus.
They were also the Karens berating the unmasked, screaming at people closer than six feet, turning in neighbors for breaking the rules, and wishing death upon all the unvaxxed. The cowardice of middle 40% has been the most disappointing aspect of this overhyped flu faux pandemic, as they dutifully submitted to the whims of the cultists – wearing their masks, locking down, avoiding human contact, obeying the totalitarian dictates of politicians, believing absurdities spouted by blustering bureaucrats, complying with un-Constitutional mandates, and sheepishly lining up for jabs that didn’t keep them from catching covid, spreading covid, being hospitalized with covid, or dying from covid. These sheepish followers are the pitiful descendants of the German prison guards who claimed they were only following orders during WWII.
In Part 2 of this article I will attempt to relate this mass formation psychosis phenomenon to the waning years of this Fourth Turning, and how they will intertwine and impact the final outcome of this crisis.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
World On Brink Of WW3 Due To West Escalating, Medvedev Warns | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
World On Brink Of WW3 Due To West Escalating, Medvedev Warns
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 08:20 AMDays after he warned NATO of the likelihood of nuclear war if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the security council Dmitry Medvedev on Monday said the world stands on the brink of World War III due to US and Western aggression against Russia.
"The world has come close to the threat of World War III due to impending US aggression against the Russian Federation," Medvedev said in comments first reported by Sky News Arabia. He also emphasized he sees the conflict at a point of no return. "There are no conditions for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine now, either de facto or de jure," Medvedev said.
On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov voiced something similar, saying the confrontation with NATO can no longer be seen as merely a "hybrid war" or proxy war, but is instead fast approaching a real one. He said this in a joint press conference with his South African counterpart, Naledi Pandor
Lavrov explained that this "almost real" - as he put it according to state media, was something the West "has been preparing for a long time against Russia."
He further charged that Ukraine's leadership has created "presidents of war" and "Russophobic leaders" - particularly in reference to Present Zelensky and before him Petro Poroshenko.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov additionally sounded the alarm in separate Monday remarks, saying that the current rush to supply Western-made tanks to the battlefield will severely escalate the conflict. "The Ukrainian people will pay the burden of this so-called support," he said.
Peskov also highlighted that it's clearly creating tensions and division among allies, noting that if the tank plan proceeds, "All countries that directly or indirectly ship weapons to Ukraine are responsible for this."
Currently, Poland is leading the way on pressuring Germany to authorize sending advanced Leopard tanks to Ukrainian forces. Berlin has so far expressed reluctance, fearing uncontrollable isolation, while seeking to stress Germany doesn't wish to be a party to the conflict.
Meanwhile, heavier weapons continue to pour into the conflict unabated...
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1617201509426663425
1:05 min
California City Gives Up On 100% Renewable Plan | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
California City Gives Up On 100% Renewable Plan | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
California City Gives Up On 100% Renewable Plan
BY TYLER DURDENMONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 04:00 PM
By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com,
As California goes, so goes the nation, or so they say. If that rings true, the nation is set for a reversal of some of its strictest renewable energy plans, after the Huntington Beach City Council voted to dump its plan for 100% renewable energy...
Huntington Beach, California, is changing the plan it had in place with the Orange County Power Authority (OCPA) - a nonprofit offering clean energy.
But its recent history in a rather unfavorable media limelight has given the city council pause.
And Huntington Beach wasn’t the first municipality to pull out - Orange County bailed on the green power authority, citing transparency concerns and a series of ugly audits, and allegations that the authority failed to inform the public that their electricity bills were increasing. Orange County was set to begin receiving green power from the authority by the end of this year. The cost of having the county pull out is estimated to be around $65 million.
For Huntington Beach, there were three plans before it when considering a change in plan:
- to keep the 100% renewable energy plan as is,
- to go with a “Smart Choice” plan offering 69% renewable energy,
- or the “Basic Choice” plan that offered 38% renewable energy.
The city council’s change of plan drew criticism from some, while the council argued that the money saved from the pull-out could be better used on other projects, such as enforcing laws around homelessness.
Huntington Beach’s change of plans follows the launch of the Department of Energy’s $50 million project to help communities transition to clean energy systems—the C2C program.
“With C2C, we’re helping all kinds of communities — from small rural communities to sprawling urban areas — access the tools and scientific and technological expertise they need to bring their energy systems into the 21st Century” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm in a statement earlier this week. “This exciting program will help communities make informed decisions about their own energy needs and ensure reliable and affordable clean energy is available to Americans everywhere.”
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Cashless Society: Big Banks Prepare To Launch Digital Wallet To Compete With Apple Pay And PayPal | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Cashless Society: Big Banks Prepare To Launch Digital Wallet To Compete With Apple Pay And PayPal
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 06:45 AMMajor US banks, including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JPMorgan, and others, will push into the digital wallet space in the second half of this year to take on Apple Pay and PayPal.
Early Warning Services LLC (EWS), the bank-owned company that operates the money-transfer service Zelle, will be managing the new digital wallet, according to WSJ. The wallet has yet to be named but will be separate from Zelle and allow shoppers to pay at merchants' online checkouts with linked debit and credit cards.
EWS plans to offer the new digital wallet later this year and can handle up to 150 million debit and credit cards during the initial launch. Consumers in good standing with banks will be eligible for the new service.
The purpose of the digital wallet is to take on third-party wallet operators such as Apple and PayPal, according to people familiar with the matter. They said banks are concerned about losing businesses if a digital wallet is not released soon. Even though Goldman Sachs' consumer unit that manages the Apple Card is a money-losing business, there is a plan to launch a high-yield savings account and buy now, pay later program.
The move towards electronic and contactless payments has been gradual but could soon be thrown into hyperdrive if enough consumers adopt EWS' new wallet. It was during the Coronavirus pandemic when the government, Federal Reserve, and corporations urged people to avoid unnecessary physical transactions that increased the push toward a cashless society.
Recall the pivot toward a cashless society was clear as day. Perhaps the coin shortage during the pandemic was a test run. And anyone who dared mention a looming cashless society was deemed a 'conspiracy theorist.'
Just remember who is also shaping the world and influencing politicians and corporations away from a cash economy:
The dystopic view is that a cashless society could mean governments and corporations will have even more control over our wallets -- and that's frightening.
bracketquant
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And 0.1 percent of US GDP should go to the big guy?
marsh
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"Widespread Weakness" Across US Leading Economic Indicators "Signal Recession In The Near-Term" | ZeroHedge
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"Widespread Weakness" Across US Leading Economic Indicators "Signal Recession In The Near-Term"
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 07:10 AMThe Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) suffered a significantly worse than expected drop in December, tumbling 1.0% MoM (vs -0.7% exp), and the 1.0% decline in November was revised down to a 1.1% drop.
- The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was orders for non-defense capital goods ex aircraft at 0.02
- The biggest negative contributor was ISM new orders at -0.23
“The US LEI fell sharply again in December - continuing to signal recession for the US economy in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board.
“There was widespread weakness among leading indicators in December, indicating deteriorating conditions for labor markets, manufacturing, housing construction, and financial markets in the months ahead. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not weakened in the same fashion as the LEI because labor market related indicators (employment and personal income) remain robust. Nonetheless, industrial production— also a component of the CEI—fell for the third straight month. Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023.”
Despite 'soft landing' hype, the LEI is showing no signs at all of 'recovering'...
And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 6.04% - its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse...
Judging by this, the tightening policies of The Fed are having a 'lagged' effect.
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George Soros Urged Use Of Eastern European Soldiers To "Reduce The Risk Of Body-Bags For NATO Countries" In 'New World Order' Article
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 01:20 PM
Authored by John Cody via Remix News,
As the war in Ukraine rages on, there is little doubt that the human cost has been enormous for Ukraine, including what is likely more than 100,000 soldiers who have died in combat operations.
However, there was one man who predicted much of what has come to pass in the battle in the east of Europe: George Soros.
The billionaire oligarch financier, often portrayed as a humanist, promoted a hard-nosed geopolitical strategy in his 1993 piece entitled “Toward a New World Order: The Future of NATO.”
In the piece, he outlines how Eastern Europeans could be used as the “manpower” in coming conflicts in an effort to reduce the number of deaths in Western countries, which Soros argues the West would not politically tolerate, unlike the east of Europe.
“The United States would not be called upon to act as the policeman of the world. When it acts, it would act in conjunction with others. Incidentally, the combination of manpower from Eastern Europe with the technical capabilities of NATO would greatly enhance the military potential of the Partnership because it would reduce the risk of body bags for NATO countries, which is the main constraint on their willingness to act. This is a viable alternative to the looming world disorder,” wrote Soros in the article.
Soros acknowledges that the NATO countries have no appetite for “body bags,” but his statement implicitly indicates that Eastern Europeans can fill this role.
What Soros described appears to be unfolding exactly as he predicted regarding the war in Ukraine. Armed with high-end NATO weapons, Ukrainian soldiers are actively countering Russia, which Soros had already feared would become a nationalist nation opposed to the global order he was promoting in 1993. The powerful Western countries have the necessary weapons, and Ukraine has the manpower. Given that Soros already saw the potential of what this symbiotic match could produce on the battlefield decades in advance will likely bolster his reputation as a calculating — and perhaps ruthless — strategic thinker.
As Soros predicted, Ukrainian society appears to be tolerating the high death toll in its current conflict with Russia. During the Vietnam War, the U.S. lost 58,220 over the course of approximately 10 years, and yet, the war saw strong opposition from the American public. Despite a far higher death toll in a far shorter period of time, Ukrainian society has seen little in terms of protests.
The lack of protest in Ukraine may also be helped by the fact that Ukraine has suspended most of civil society, banned opposition parties and media, and even outlawed the Russian Orthodox Church. Another key factor in society’s perspective on the conflict is that the war is taking place on Ukrainian soil, which is a highly motivating factor for Ukrainian soldiers.
All those Ukrainian bodies, of course, have come with a major price tag for Russia, with the country’s cemeteries also filling up as quickly or even more so. Exact figures on casualties for either side remain unofficial and are likely inexact, but the war is costing both nations dearly in terms of life.
In the same article, Soros called for a “new world order.” The term is often derided in establishment media as a conspiracy theory, but Soros openly uses it. In addition, in the piece, the new world order he calls for is remarkably globalist and centralized. In other words, exactly the type of new world order critics of his, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, have been warning about for over a decade.
“Therefore, the only basis for action is collective security. And that is where the problem lies. The collapse of the Soviet empire has created a collective security problem of the utmost gravity. Without a new world order, there will be disorder; that much is clear. But who will act as the world’s policeman? That is the question that needs to be answered,” Soros wrote.
Soros outlines a number of his theories in the piece, referring to open and closed societies as well as the “theory of revolutionary change,” which he said he had also applied to financial markets. The billionaire describes how the dissolution of the Soviet Union presented new global security challenges but also opportunities.
The original mission was to defend the free world against the Soviet empire. That mission is obsolete; but the collapse of the Soviet empire has left a security vacuum which has the potential of turning into a “black hole.” This presents a different kind of threat than the Soviet empire did. There is no direct threat from the region to the NATO countries; the danger is within the region, and it concerns conditions within states as much as relationships between states. Therefore, if NATO has any mission at all, it is to project its power and influence into the region, and the mission is best defined in terms of open and closed societies.
Closed societies based on nationalist principles constitute a threat to security because they need an enemy, either outside or within. But the threat is very different in character from the one NATO was constructed to confront, and a very different approach is required to combat this threat. It involves the building of democratic states and open societies and embedding them in a structure which precludes certain kinds of behavior.
Soros also writes in his piece that NATO was racing to grant membership to countries in Central and Eastern Europe before “Russia recovers.” Soros appears to see NATO as actively transgressing against Russia during a time the country was still in chaos following the fall of communism.
“The countries of Central Europe are clamoring for full membership of NATO as soon as possible, preferably before Russia recovers. Russia objects, not because it harbors any designs on its former empire but because it sees no advantage in consenting. Its national pride has been hurt and it is sick and tired of making concessions without corresponding benefits,” writes Soros.
The billionaire activist also makes a number of other proposals in the piece, including offering NATO membership to Japan, his goal being the creation of a “new world order.”
“Japan should be asked to join NATO. Then we would have the beginnings of an architecture for a new world order. It is based on the United States as the remaining superpower and on open society as the organizing principle. It consists of a series of alliances, the most important of which is NATO and, through NATO, the Partnership for Peace which girds the Northern Hemisphere,” he writes.
marsh
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Food Inflation Update: Lull Before China's Storm?
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 07:00 PMBy Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets Substack,
As I and many of my subscribers have noticed, many of the key commodity drivers of inflation have seeming rolled over.
European gas prices, Chinese pork prices, oil prices, US corn prices among others have weakened to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Strangely, weak commodity prices should be disastrous for my key trade, long GLD short TLT, and yet strangely it has breached new cycle highs. Why is this?
The first thing that should be said is that commodity investing is hard. Surprises in short term demand and supply can drive huge moves in spot markets. A good example is pork prices. Pork is particularly big driver of Chinese inflation. Chinese and US pork prices have recently fallen significantly.
I have no idea why pork prices have fallen. The reopening of China would have made me think short term demand for pork would be higher, and hence prices would be rising. That they are falling, suggests maybe supply is robust. Confusing the picture is that Chinese corn price have not weakened, meaning that profitability for pig farmers has collapsed. All a bit confusing to be honest.
However, my core argument is that China has turned into a net food importer, and this should be putting upward pressure on food prices, as long as China does not devalue.
The data on China being a net food importer remains compelling. European exports of meat to China remain strong.
Chinese pork prices can be greatly effected by swings in supply. However during the African Swine Flu crisis, beef consumption in China grew significantly.
China grows very little beef (very little pasture land).
Robust pricing for beef would point to food inflation in China still having an upward bias in my mind.
The key argument of China becoming a food importer seems intact.
The other end of inflation argument you could make is that energy price inflation is done. European gas prices have collapsed in recent months. In part driven by a very warm winter.
Even more so than Chinese pork prices, natural gas prices are very susceptible to short term fluctuations in demand and supply. To get around this I look at 5 year forward futures on US natural gas. The long dated futures have yet to show an inflection in pricing to indicate we are going back to a sustained bear market.
What I think is happening is that in early 2022, the US seemed very determined to counter inflation through what ever measure were necessary. We saw the sharpest increase in short term rates in a generation. And we also saw the biggest sell down of the strategic petroleum reserve. This sell down added about 600k barrels a day of supply to oil markets.
As argued previously, food inflation forces wage inflation. And China becoming a food importer is creating food inflation globally.
This means that central banks have to run aggressive interest rate policy, or inflation will return.
GLD/TLT reflects that. When TLT is weak, which happens when the market pricing in aggressive interest rate policy, GLD is also weak. But as soon as TLT reflects a slackening of central bank resolve, GLD shoots higher. My best guess we are a short term lull in inflation, making short TLT and other bond trades look attractive here.
marsh
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Blank Check? Democrats Want To Totally Eliminate Debt Ceiling With New Bill
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 05:20 PMA group of 43 Democrats want to completely eliminate the debt ceiling, which they say Republicans have 'weaponized' - which would give the government a blank check to borrow without any limit from Congress.
The End the Threat of Default Act, introduced by Rep Bill Foster (D-IL) and co-sponsored by 42 House Democrats, comes after the federal government hit the $31,381 trillion debt ceiling last week. According to Democrats, instead of attempting to responsibly spend taxpayer dollars through negotiation, it's time to just eliminate all limits on federal borrowing.
"Weaponizing the debt ceiling and using it as a pawn in partisan budget negotiations is dangerous and repeatedly brings our nation to the brink of default, which would be disastrous to the U.S. economy – something we’ve witnessed as recently as 2011 when Republicans created a debt ceiling crisis that resulted in the first ever downgrade to the U.S. credit rating," said Foster.
"The government has an obligation to pay its bills," he added. "Threatening to default on our debt is the same as ordering an expensive meal at a restaurant, eating it, and skipping out without paying. We can and should have a real conversation about overall spending, but the full faith and credit of the United States must never be compromised."
Co-sponsors of the bill include Reps. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas, Gerry Connolly of Virginia, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Barbara Lee of California, Fox News reports.
The Biden administration and its Democrat allies in Congress have argued that raising the debt ceiling does not allow "new" spending, and only allows the government to meet its current obligations. But Republicans say congressional approval of new spending programs is what has repeatedly forced the government to keep hitting its borrowing limit, which has then forced Congress to keep raising the debt ceiling.
Before the housing crisis in 2008, the total national debt was $9 trillion, an amount that more than tripled to more than $31 trillion in less than 15 years thanks to programs related to the housing bailout, 20 years of military presence in Afghanistan, COVID emergency response measures, and routine funding increases for defense and social programs. -Fox News
Just before the pandemic, the federal government spent $4.4 trillion in fiscal year 2019. In 2020, that ballooned to $6.8 trillion, and then $6.3 trillion in FY2022.
Of course, Foster did not introduce the bill when Democrats had the majority in both chambers of Congress (and would have been shot down by their own Joe Manchin) - so let's agree this yet another transparent attempt to signal virtue.
marsh
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Ron Paul Hammers Debt-Ceiling Hysteria & Hypocrisy | ZeroHedge
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Ron Paul Hammers Debt-Ceiling Hysteria & Hypocrisy
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 05:00 PMAuthored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,
This week the US government reached its 31.4 trillion dollars borrowing limit, better known as the “debt ceiling.” This led to a showdown among House Republicans, President Biden, and congressional Democrats.
You will find more infographics at Statista
House Republicans are demanding that President Biden and Senate Democrats agree to include spending cuts with the debt ceiling increase. However, President Biden and the congressional Democrats are refusing to negotiate with Republicans. Rather, they and their allies in the mainstream media are lambasting Republicans for their “irresponsibility” in seeking to include spending cuts with an increase in the debt ceiling.
America’s national debt is approximately 122 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), meaning the government owes more than the population produces. Interest payments on the national debt follow in size behind other federal budget big spending areas of Social Security, Medicare, and “defense.” While interest payments are made, the national debt continues to grow each year.
Government spending steals resources from the private sector. Thus, there is less capital available for private businesses to grow and create new jobs. Government spending also contributes to price inflation and the declining value of the dollar as the Federal Reserve monetizes the debt. One reason the Fed cannot allow interest rates to rise anywhere near where they would be in a free market is that it would cause the federal government’s interest payments to rise to unsustainable levels. Considering these facts, it should be clear that the irresponsible ones are those who think the government should increase its credit limit without cutting spending.
This is not to say that establishment Republicans like House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are heroes of fiscal restraint. Rather, McCarthy, like most Republicans, objected neither to increased spending nor to debt ceiling suspensions when Donald Trump was president.
Further, any Republican spending plan will likely continue increasing spending on the military-industrial complex while refusing to address the looming cost problems with Social Security and Medicare.
While some Republicans are willing to discuss reforms to Social Security and Medicare, most are still too afraid of the “senior lobby” to support any changes in the programs - even if such changes will not harm current beneficiaries.
Consequently, it is unlikely Congress will pass meaningful entitlement reform — at least until it is forced to do so because the Medicare and Social Security Trust Funds run out of money.
Insolvency is projected for the Medicare Trust Fund in five years and for the Social Security Trust Fund in 12 years. Of course, Congress may be able to avoid making tough choices since the Federal Reserve will likely cut government benefits, along with workers’ wages and the value of savings, via the inflation tax.
Following early reports that the House Republican leadership was open to supporting cuts in military spending, there arose a predictable cry from Republican hawks that any reduction in spending would leave the US and its allies vulnerable to our enemies. The limited cuts considered, though, would still keep America with a military budget exceeding the combined military budgets of the next nine biggest spending countries. After some pressure from the military-industrial complex’s loyalists and propagandists, most Republicans retreated from supporting defense cuts.
A problem with many fiscal conservatives is they accept the premise of the welfare-warfare statists. Thus, they are unable to make consistent principled arguments supporting spending cuts and opposing spending increases. The key to restoring a free society is for a critical mass of individuals to reject statism.
marsh
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Supreme Court's Failure To Identify Dobbs Leaker Is "Chilling", Jonathan Turley Warns "Danger Will Only Grow" | ZeroHedge
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Supreme Court's Failure To Identify Dobbs Leaker Is "Chilling", Jonathan Turley Warns "Danger Will Only Grow"
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 05:40 PM
Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times,
George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley criticized the Supreme Court on Jan. 19 over its failure to determine who leaked a draft of the court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization opinion.
After a months-long investigation sparked by the May leak, the court released its much-anticipated investigative report (pdf) on the matter Thursday, finding that it was “not possible” to identify the person responsible for the breach or how the document had ended up in the hands of Politico.
“The Supreme Court’s report indicates that they cannot isolate the culprit among the over 80 possible suspects for the Dobbs leak,” Turley noted in a series of Jan. 19 tweets.
“It is an admission that is almost as chilling as the leak itself.”
Turley also posited that, despite the security recommendations of the court’s marshal, the inconclusive investigation would likely only serve to embolden future leakers.
“The nature of the Court’s work requires a free flow of drafts and memoranda,” he noted. “That is why we hope to achieve through deterrence what was not achieved through ethics.
“In this age of rage, this danger will only grow,” he added.
“Someone felt that they had license to leak. Some others may now feel that they have the impunity to do so.”
The Leak
While, in general, Supreme Court leaks are rare, the Dobbs leak was made all the more significant by the implications of the ruling on nearly a half-century of abortion law in the United States.
Politico, having exclusively obtained an early draft of the opinion, published it May 2 as part of a report titled, “Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows.”
Although the draft differed slightly from the final opinion the court would issue on June 24, the decision was the same: The court ruled 5–4 that there is no constitutional right to abortion, striking down the precedents set by the 1973 landmark abortion case of Roe v. Wade and the subsequent 1992 ruling in Planned Parenthood v. Casey.
The leaked draft sparked national protests, including outside the homes of conservative justices, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh becoming the target of an assassination attempt.
Calling the leak an “egregious breach” of the court’s trust, Chief Justice John Roberts ordered an investigation into its source.
“To the extent this betrayal of the confidences of the Court was intended to undermine the integrity of our operations, it will not succeed,” Roberts assured in a May 3 statement.
“The work of the Court will not be affected in any way.”
The Investigation
Prior to Thursday’s report, the court had been tight-lipped on the progress of its investigation, with the only updates coming from anonymous sources.
Led by Supreme Court Marshal Gail Curley, the court’s investigative team comprised “seasoned attorneys and trained federal investigators with substantial experience conducting criminal, administrative and cyber investigations,” per Curley’s report.
But after conducting 126 formal interviews of 97 employees, the team was unable to identify the individual responsible for the leak.
“No one confessed to publicly disclosing the document and none of the available forensic and other evidence provided a basis for identifying any individual as the source of the document,” Curley noted.
While the possibility of a hack could not be entirely ruled out, the team found that the evidence did not suggest improper outside access.
Investigators were likewise unable to rule out inadvertent or negligent disclosure, “for example, by being left in a public space either inside or outside the building.”
Additionally, despite reports that the justices were not interviewed as part of the investigation, Curley clarified in a statement Friday that she did speak with them in addition to their staff.
“During the course of the investigation, I spoke with each of the Justices, several on multiple occasions,” she said. “The Justices actively cooperated in this iterative process, asking questions and answering mine. I followed up on all credible leads, none of which implicated the Justices or their spouses. On this basis, I did not believe that it was necessary to ask the Justices to sign sworn affidavits.”
While also noting in her report that investigators were still reviewing and processing some electronic data and that a few inquiries were pending, Curley proposed several security improvements to prevent future breaches, including enhanced training, tracking mechanisms to monitor the printing and copying of documents, and policy updates on the handling of draft opinions and who can access sensitive information.
In a statement attached to the report, the court offered Curley their “full support” as she and her team continue their investigation.
marsh
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Biden Administration Still Pushing For Forced Masking | ZeroHedge
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Biden Administration Still Pushing For Forced Masking
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 04:20 PM
Authored by Ian Miller via The Brownstone Institute,
The Biden Administration recently reinforced their commitment to retaining authority to impose endless COVID mandates on the American people...
In April 2022, a federal judge in Florida ruled that the CDC had overstepped its authority by requiring airlines to mandate masks on domestic flights.
Essentially every company almost immediately moved to make masks optional. Many even allowed passengers, in flight, to remove their masks, to mass celebrations.
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1516233320430018564
.11 min
It was also a dramatic win for science, as years of data have proven that masks are entirely ineffective at preventing the spread of COVID.
The unfortunate trend of in-flight arguments and fights also dropped dramatically after the court overturned the mandate.
In February 2022, the rate of unruly passenger incidents on domestic flights was 6.4 per 10,000 travelers. Following the end of the mandate, that number dropped to 1.7 per 10,000.
So, not only do masks not work, they actually likely cause significant, potentially dangerous disagreements.
Experts warned that it would lead to a surge in flight cancellations within a few weeks. Naturally, cancellation data showed that the exact opposite situation unfolded.
Additionally, in the nearly nine months since the policy ended, cases in the US have remained low. While the winter of 2021-2022 saw a massive surge of infections with the mandate in place, no such surge materialized through the end of 2022.
But none of that’s stopped the Biden administration from appealing the ruling.
While this might not necessarily mean the immediate return of mandates on planes, it would allow the CDC to retain that authority.
Will Mask Mandates Return?
Oral arguments in the case were scheduled for Tuesday, with no indication yet how the appeal will go. But previous statements by the Justice Department show how committed they are to masking.
Despite the inarguable reality that masks do not work to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, the attorney arguing the case said that they should have the authority to reimpose mandates for future pandemics.
“You can imagine the next pandemic, there was an outbreak of measles or SARS and the CDC would want to and need to take swift action in order to control such a pandemic in the future,” the attorney for the Justice Department said.
“I think the important thing here is that the potential collateral estoppel effect of the district court’s ruling could tie up future CDC actions.”
It’s extremely concerning that the Justice Department apparently believes that masks on planes would be able to “control such a pandemic,” especially measles.
It’s equally concerning that they believe the CDC is competent enough to “control such a pandemic.”
They utterly failed to “control” this one with masks on public transit. On top of their recommendations that politicians enact some of the most draconian restrictions on normal life ever enacted in the United States.
But their lockdowns, masks, vaccine passports and other recommended policies were entirely unable to prevent the spread of a highly infectious respiratory virus.
Yet Biden and his administration are arguing they be allowed to exercise similar, near unlimited control over the freedoms of American citizens regardless.
Thankfully, a lawyer defending the end of the mandate pointed out the obvious; this has nothing to do with public health. He explained that the appeal’s timing shows how little connection it bears to Americans’ health.
“This appeal is not about an urgent matter of public health. If the mask order had been such an urgent matter of public health, you would have expected CDC to have applied for a stay to the district court’s ruling,” said the attorney representing the Health Freedom Defense Fund.
Of course, he’s entirely right. This appeal is about politics, not science.
Biden and his team want the ability to enforce mandates at their choosing, even after everyone paying attention has seen how pointless and ineffective they are.
So while it’s hard to say for certain if they would bring back mandates, it’s certainly fair to say that they might.
Lawyer Jenin Younes explained in several Twitter threads how the circle of authority leads to endless masking.
The CDC creates terrible, poorly conducted research and studies claiming to show that masks work. Judges defer to their research to avoid deciding scientific questions, leading them to side with the CDC. Despite the CDC’s demonstrable ineffectiveness and incompetence.
They refuse to admit they were wrong, and so instead of learning from their overreach and repeated failures, they’re desperately clawing to retain powers they never had.
Given that their utterly ridiculous recommendations on masking persist into 2023, it wouldn’t be hard to believe they’d bring them back at the first sign of a “surge.”
To them, it doesn’t matter how often they’re wrong, it matters that they’re able to tell you what to do.
marsh
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"Labor Hoarding": New Theory Emerges To Explain The Lack Of Labor Market Collapse | ZeroHedge
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"Labor Hoarding": New Theory Emerges To Explain The Lack Of Labor Market Collapse
MONDAY, JAN 23, 2023 - 03:00 PMSetting aside how credible any data released by the BLS now is - considering that not just this website but even the Philly Fed has challenged the accuracy of the Payroll reports' Establishment survey, while Goldman recent found that actual layoffs as indicated by state WARN notices are far higher than those seasonally adjusted by the Department of Labor, there was one data point that prompted quite a few commentators to scratch their heads.
Recall that one of the reasons stocks were pleasantly surprised by the jobs report is that not only did payrolls dip again (if printing as usual above average), but average hourly earnings slumped. But there was more: alongside the decline in wages, average hours worked also declined (which had a material impact on the average wages, and had hours been flat, the decline in average wages would have been even more pronounced).
Why does this matter? Well, as Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky wrote on Friday, the deceleration in wage gains as of late and "the shirking of hours worked is in no way consistent with a wage spiral, and in fact suggests something unusual might be happening as corporates reluctant to shed hard to find labor are shrinking the work-week/hours worked rather than cutting payrolls." This would make intuitive sense if one assumes that employers are still smarting from the difficulty to find workers in the post-covid months when millions of low and medium-income workers simply exited the workforce. As such, if everyone is convinced that the coming recession will be light, employers are more tempted to shrink (in some cases aggressively) their employees' hours rather then engage in layoffs, especially if they are concerned they will have difficulty finding workers in a few months (all of this, of course, assumes that the recession will be "shallow" whatever that means).
As evidence, Privorotsky shows the decline in the average employee workweek as proxied by both the Philadelphia and Empire Fed's surveys.
Others at Goldman agree, and in a note published by the bank's economist team looking at the ongoing rebalancing in the labor market (available to pro subs), they found that while Labor demand still remains high it is now falling: "The trend has admittedly become murkier recently as measures of job openings have diverged. But the average of these measures is still declining, and business surveys also suggest that total labor demand is still coming down."
Here is the interesting part in the Goldman report, :
Labor supply has at most a bit more room to recover. The discussion about labor supply during the pandemic has mostly centered on “missing workers,” and for the first couple of years there was indeed room for the labor force participation rate to rebound as fiscal support and Covid fears faded.
But we noted last summer that the participation rate had already largely recovered, and the small increase in December to 62.3% brought it to our year-end target that embedded some further cyclical recovery to offset an ongoing downward trend driven by demographics. While prime-age participation is still a bit below its pre-pandemic rate, the overall participation rate has now nearly returned to the CBO’s estimate of the trend implied by demographic changes, as shown on the left of Exhibit 4, and a new paper by economists Bart Hobijn and Ayşegül Şahin also suggests that the gap is largely closed.
The remaining labor supply shortfall relative to pre-pandemic trends actually comes less from reduced participation than from a decline in average work hours. In another paper, Şahin, R. Jason Faberman, and Andreas I. Mueller use data from a supplement to the New York Fed’s consumer survey to show that workers’ desired work hours dropped sharply during the pandemic and remained depressed at least through the end of 2021, when their data end, with much of the decline coming from people classified as outside of the labor force who occasionally enter it, such as retirees. New research by Dain Lee, Jinhyeok Park, and Yongseok Shin shows that average hours have fallen since 2019, especially among college-educated prime-age men and among those who work the longest hours, as shown on the right of Exhibit 4. Because, as the authors note, these workers work far longer hours than is typical for US workers let alone those in other high-income countries, this change might persist to some extent.
Maybe the best discussion on this topic comes from Amberwave co-founder Stephen Miran, who earlier today tweeted some of his observations on why the US is still not in a recession, and concludes that "the principal reason is the missing construction layoffs. Mortgage rates shot up from 3% to 7%, making buying a home unaffordable for many folks. Normally, one expects a slowdown in construction activity and layoffs. But, construction employment is at all time highs!"
Arguing that in light of the dramatic slowdown in activity in the construction sector, "we'd expect huge layoffs" with "expected layoffs in the neighborhood of 500k to 800k jobs, and with multipliers, this would be 1 to 3 million total losses. That's a real recession."
But these layoffs still haven't taken place, prompting Miran to proposed several explanations why not:
1. They will. (Maybe, but I don't see -any- sign of them in the data...yet.). There are some reasons for expecting the layoffs to eventually come. In particular, the huge divergence between the number of homes being sold and the number of homes currently under construction, which will presumably come down as homes are completed.
2. The extraordinary backlog of homes demand due to pandemic changes in the economy like wfh. This is a possible explanation, but presumably at some point runs out?
3. Labor hoarding by builders, i.e. holding onto employees for fear of being able to replace them if necessary in a tight labor market. Miran says that he is "generally dismissive of labor hoarding for the economy as a whole, but more sympathetic in the building sector. Why?"
The principal reason is the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, passed in 2021. As I pointed out at the time in WSJopinion, the IIJA is going to further fuel inflation.
Going into CY2023, there's going to be ~$38 billion of Federal spending on construction and other projects kicking in. In CY24, it'll be closer to $54 billion. Assuming some multipliers, these go a long way to offsetting a big chunk of the decline in private structures spending.
(Ignore the decline in direct spending here, that's largely the offsets from reduced spending on phrama or subsidies to GSEs)
In other words, I suspect builders are holding onto employees because the $$$ being spent by Uncle Sam on construction are going to start kicking in this year. Given a historically tight labor market where employees seem to have all the power, they'd rather hold onto the workers
Why lay off your workers now if you expect real difficulty in hiring them back if building starts to pick back up, particularly for nonresidential construction?
While this may well be the most likely explanation, and one which will be tested most easily by the severity of the coming recession (if indeed there is labor hoarding within construction, an extended deterioration in the sector will only result in an even more acute collapse in construction jobs in the near-term), there is another possible explanation, namely that financial conditions have eased significantly since September: stocks, mortgage rates, the dollar.
It's not difficult to imagine a world in which home prices fall by 10% or so, but given strong wages, resilient stocks, and falling mortgage rates, final demand stays robust. Given the historic run up in home prices, builders are still very profitable at those levels. In other words, maybe builders expect a surge of private demand in the near future and are therefore holding onto their employees.
Miran's conclusion is spot on, and boils down to the following: The missing construction layoffs ARE the missing recession. If they come, we'll have a recession. There's a reason for expecting them to come (homes under construction lagging sales), and reasons for expecting them not to (future demand picking up, private & public)
Watching this sector will give us a clue as to whether we'll see a recession or not. In the meantime, real incomes are accelerating on lower inflation, and as I've stressed 100x, financial conditions easing ought to induce a pickup in GDP growth
There is thus some chance the economy reaccelerates before those layoffs come, and the recession is avoided. However, in that case, the Fed will be goaded into a new hiking cycle, as inflation will pick back up, and the recession will be delayed and not avoided.
Afternote: there's a race between the exhaustion of the backlog & the coming construction layoffs, vs. a reacceleration of the economy on easing financial conditions & IIJA boosting construction demand. Which of these forces wins the race determines whether we have:
- Recession, or
- Burst of growth, followed by new hiking cycle, followed by recession
marsh
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Naomi Wolf: “Something Really Historic Has Happened...”
Help the @DailyClout / @Bannons_WarRoom volunteers blow the biggest story of our lifetime wide open. Buy and share the book that contains the information Pfizer and the FDA wanted to keep hidden for 7
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Sunfellow On COVID-19
51 minutes ago
Naomi Wolf: “Something Really Historic Has Happened...”
Help the @DailyClout / @Bannons_WarRoom volunteers blow the biggest story of our lifetime wide open. Buy and share the book that contains the information Pfizer and the FDA wanted to keep hidden for 75 years!War Room / DailyClout Pfizer Documents Analysis Volunteers’ Reports eBook: Find Out What Pfizer, FDA Tried to Conceal
Amazon.com: War Room / DailyClout Pfizer Documents Analysis Volunteers’ Reports eBook: Find Out What Pfizer, FDA Tried to Conceal eBook : Investigation Team, Pfizer Documents, Kelly, Amy, LLC, DailyClout: Kindle Store
"Something really historic has happened!" -- Naomi Wolf
marsh
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(Redacted full show) Is Civil War next as Ukraine slides into chaos, just what NATO wants | Redacted with Clayton Morris 2:17:04 min (starts at 32:10 min)
Redacted News
Streamed on: Jan 23, 4:00 pm EST
(Segments)
Russia issues WW3 warning as NATO escalates in Ukraine | Redacted with Natali and Clayton Morris 24:29 min
Redacted News
1 hour ago
Redacted News
Streamed on: Jan 23, 4:00 pm EST
Is Civil War next as Ukraine slides into chaos, just what NATO wants | Redacted with Clayton Morris
Former top advisor to Zelensky is dropping a lot of truth bombs over the past 48-hours and says Ukraine is about to eat itself to death in a civil war. NATO is pushing for more weapons to be sent to Ukraine including leopard and abrams tanks.(Segments)
Russia issues WW3 warning as NATO escalates in Ukraine | Redacted with Natali and Clayton Morris 24:29 min
Redacted News
1 hour ago
Russia issues WW3 warning as NATO escalates in Ukraine | Redacted with Natali and Clayton Morris
Former top advisor to Zelensky is dropping a lot of truth bombs over the past 48-hours and says Ukraine is about to eat itself to death in a civil war. NATO is pushing for more weapons to be sent to Ukraine including leopard and abrams tanks.
marsh
On TB every waking moment
Ep. 2979a - The [CB] Is Now Being Challenged, Yellen Intercepts, This Is Just The Beginning 17:38 min (starts at 1:24 min)
X22 Report
3 hours ago
^^^^^
Ep. 2979b - [DS]/FVEY Panicking, Protection Removed, This Is Just The Beginning, Fear The Storm 45:33 min (starts at 1:25 min)
X22 Report
3 hours ago
X22 Report
3 hours ago
Ep. 2979a - The [CB] Is Now Being Challenged, Yellen Intercepts, This Is Just The Beginning
Germany finally admits they are dependent on Russia after they laughed at Trump. The fake news is now projected that a recession is approaching. Trump says to use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip. Yellen intercepts calls to bypass the Fed.^^^^^
Ep. 2979b - [DS]/FVEY Panicking, Protection Removed, This Is Just The Beginning, Fear The Storm 45:33 min (starts at 1:25 min)
X22 Report
3 hours ago
Ep. 2979b - [DS]/FVEY Panicking, Protection Removed, This Is Just The Beginning, Fear The Storm
The [DS] and FVEY are now panicking, they removed the PM of NZ and now more and more evidence is coming out about Biden's business dealings, they need to separate themselves form him and that is exactly what they are doing. Protection has been removed. The pieces are now being put into place for the storm that his approaching, the [DS] fears the storm and it is approaching. This is just the beginning. The sleeping giant has woken up and there is nothing the [DS] can do to stop it.
marsh
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Why Is The WEF Focusing So Much On Cyber Security?
Grant Stinchfield speaks with TPUSA’s Jobob about what is behind the World Economic Forum's warnings about a cyber attack. Watch LIVE➡ bit.ly/rokurav Watch more #StinchfieldTonight here: https://rumbl
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RealAmericasVoice
2 hours ago
Why Is The WEF Focusing So Much On Cyber Security?
Grant Stinchfield speaks with TPUSA’s Jobob about what is behind the World Economic Forum's warnings about a cyber attack.
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Former DHS Sec. Wolf Says It's ‘Hard’ For Biden To Accidentally Take Classified Docs 2:31 min
RealAmericasVoice
2 hours ago
RealAmericasVoice
2 hours ago
Former DHS Sec. Wolf Says It's ‘Hard’ For Biden To Accidentally Take Classified Docs
Grant Stinchfield interviews former acting DHS Secretary Chad Wolf, and asks how President Biden took classified material to his home: “You have to go through some very intentional steps… to somehow have one of those documents end up in a box sitting in your garage or sitting in an office for years.”
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The 'Deafening Silence' from Corporate Media Outlets Suggests They Are Complicit in a Mass Murder 1:40 min
The Vigilant Fox
4 hours ago
Dr. Naomi Wolf: "So I think one reason they're silent is that they are complicit in this crime against humanity."
The Vigilant Fox
4 hours ago
The 'Deafening Silence' from Corporate Media Outlets Suggests They Are Complicit in a Mass Murder
They took BIG money from the CARES Act and the Gates Foundation to promote the C19 jab.Dr. Naomi Wolf: "So I think one reason they're silent is that they are complicit in this crime against humanity."
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Chad Wolf Previews House Border Investigation
Former acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf gives a look at what to expect from the House investigation into the southern border crisis. #BidenBorderCrisis #BorderInvasion Watch LIVE➡ bit.l
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Just the News, No Noise
3 hours ago
Chad Wolf Previews House Border Investigation
Former acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf gives a look at what to expect from the House investigation into the southern border crisis. #BidenBorderCrisis #BorderInvasion
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Seamus Bruner explains timeline of the Biden document scandal 2:16 min
Just the News, No Noise
3 hours ago
^^^^
J&A Q&A: how did we find out about the Biden documents? 1:59 min
Just The News
3 hours ago
Just the News, No Noise
3 hours ago
Seamus Bruner explains timeline of the Biden document scandal
Seamus Bruner of the Government Accountability Institute walks through the timeline of the Biden document scandal.^^^^
J&A Q&A: how did we find out about the Biden documents? 1:59 min
Just The News
3 hours ago
J&A Q&A: how did we find out about the Biden documents?
John Solomon & Amanda Head answer a viewer's question about the genesis of the Biden document scandal.
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Foreign policy expert thinks US is giving Ukraine too much leeway 1:48 min
Just The News
3 hours ago
^^^^
rumble.com
15:42 min
Bannons War Room
4 hours ago
^^^^
Rebekah Koffler: Smoking Gun Of Real Collision Hoax Concocted By USA Spy Agencies 14:20 min
Bannons War Room
4 hours ago
^^^^
John Mills: Counterintelligence Agent Arrests Collapse RussiaGate 7:41 min
Bannons War Room
4 hours ago
Just The News
3 hours ago
Foreign policy expert thinks US is giving Ukraine too much leeway
Foreign policy expert Dr. Walid Phares says the U.S. should have more say in how Ukraine uses the weapons and funding they’re being given.^^^^
Rebekah Koffler: Ukraine-Russia Escalating Large Scale War
Rebekah Koffler: Ukraine-Russia Escalating Large Scale War
rumble.com
Bannons War Room
4 hours ago
Rebekah Koffler: Ukraine-Russia Escalating Large Scale War
(No summary given. Have not watched)^^^^
Rebekah Koffler: Smoking Gun Of Real Collision Hoax Concocted By USA Spy Agencies 14:20 min
Bannons War Room
4 hours ago
Rebekah Koffler: Smoking Gun Of Real Collision Hoax Concocted By USA Spy Agencies
Rebekah Koffler: Smoking Gun Of Real Collision Hoax Concocted By USA Spy Agencies.^^^^
John Mills: Counterintelligence Agent Arrests Collapse RussiaGate 7:41 min
Bannons War Room
4 hours ago
John Mills: Counterintelligence Agent Arrests Collapse RussiaGate
(No summary given. Have not watched.)
Last edited:
marsh
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Will Biden Be Impeached Over Classified Docs? Rep. Wesley Hunt Gives His Take 1:46 min
RealAmericasVoice
3 hours ago
RealAmericasVoice
3 hours ago