MAIN EBOLA DISCUSSION THREAD - 09/16/2014 - 09/30/2014

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Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Kai Kupferschmidt ‏@kakape 7h
Scary new numbers from @WHO:

6553 #Ebola cases, 3083 deaths.
That's 311 cases and 184 deaths in two days.
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/135029/1/roadmapupdate26sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1(PDF)



Adia Benton ‏@Ethnography911 7h
@kakape @WHO
The cases are there whether counted or not, right?
Better surveillance?
Increased reporting?


Kai Kupferschmidt @kakape · 7h
@ethnography911 @who
I honestly doubt that surveillance is getting better.
I rather fear that the under-reporting is only increasing…



Adia Benton ‏@Ethnography911 7h
@kakape @WHO I think both could be happening:
improved case reporting and identification and growing number of cases.



Kai Kupferschmidt ‏@kakape 7h
@ethnography911 @who Absolutely, it's possible.
I just fear it's not likely with treatment centers at capacity
and situation deteriorating.



Adia Benton ‏@Ethnography911 7h
@kakape @WHO But this assumes
that all surveillance occurs in treatment centers
or the point of care.
This varies across countries+by week



Kai Kupferschmidt ‏@kakape 7h
@ethnography911 @who It's just a guess at this point.
But since I would love to see things get better,
my skeptical mind assumes the worst.



Adia Benton ‏@Ethnography911 6h
@kakape @WHO
always assume the worst when it comes to surveillance data.
I agree with you on that. we just know so little.



Kai Kupferschmidt ‏@kakape 6h
@ethnography911 @who
Yes, and nine months into this outbreak,
that may be the scariest thing of all…


Maia Majumder, MPH ‏@maiamajumder 1h
@kakape @MackayIM @Ethnography911 @WHO
I tend to agree.
Generally, under-reporting gets *better*
as an outbreak progresses... (1/N)




Maia Majumder, MPH ‏@maiamajumder 1h
@kakape @MackayIM @Ethnography911 @WHO
But in this case,
capacity has been decreasing.
Thus, we expect under-reporting f(x) to grow. (2/2)

^^^ Doomer Doug,

the Epidemiologists, Scientists, and Medical Doctors are agreeing with you!
 

Natty Bumppo

Deceased
THOUGHT I WOULD HELP MAKE YOUR WEEKEND

Natty note: this is from 2012


Bleeding To Death

Will Ebola Be America’s Next Horror?

By James Donahue


A disturbing outbreak of an Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease in white-tailed deer across Southern Michigan has impacted the 2012 deer hunting season in the state. Most hunters are traveling into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to stalk their buck rather than take a chance on infected meat.

The Department of Natural Resources has blamed the summer drought and record heat as a major contributor to the spread of a biting fly that is believed to be transmitting the virus. The infection causes internal bleeding, high fever, loss of appetite and death.

The infection, which was first detected among the deer in 2011, has wiped out thousands of whitetails in Michigan. Hunters and farmers complain of smelling the rotting carcasses of the dead deer everywhere.

While wildlife and game officials are saying the virus is not a threat to humans, we suspect they are keeping a leery eye on the epidemic. That is because a new strain of the Ebola virus, which causes a fatal hemorrhagic fever in both humans and primates, has been discovered that appears to spread through the air.

It used to be believed that Ebola was only passed by direct contact with blood or body fluids from one subject to the next. But a study published November 15 in Scientific Reports noted that piglets infected with Ebola passed the virus to macaques housed in the same room, even though the animals never had contact with one another.

The Ebola virus strains have mostly been known in certain areas of Africa where entire villages have been struck by deadly epidemics that cause victims to literally bleed to death. Scientists have long believed the virus, believed to be carried by monkeys, would not spread world-wide because of the speed with which it kills its host.

Recently, however, some Ebola viruses related to the African strains have shown up in orangutans in Indonesia. This has alarmed researchers who now see a possibility of other Ebola-like viruses spreading to pigs and from there to humans.

Ebola is clearly a form of hemorrhagic fever. Thus the question rises; is the disease that is spreading among the Michigan deer herds also a form of Ebola? If it is carried by biting flies, is there a chance that the virus will mutate to a form that will infect humans?

Why would a form of hemorrhagic fever start breaking out in the Michigan deer herds in 2011 and then intensify in 2012? Where did this virus originate? There is a theory among conspiracy buffs that this and other experimental diseases may have escaped from the controversial Animal Disease Center on Plum Island, off the tip of Long Island, New York, during Hurricanes Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012.

The center, operated by the Department of Agriculture, has reportedly been a experimental center where researchers test methods of controlling infectious diseases among farm animals. The research there included some ugly strains of things like hoof and mouth disease, African swine fever, vesicular stomatitis and cattle plague. Would Ebola among pigs have been included? Since the Plum Island lab has been operating under extreme secrecy, no one knows what bugs were infecting the various animals housed there.

Even worse, no one knows for sure if the laboratory buildings were damaged in the two hurricanes, and if so, did any unwanted diseases get carried in the winds over the mainland?

This is not an original concern. Writer Michael Carroll in his book: Lab 257: The Disturbing Story of the Government’s Secret Plum Island German Laboratory, suggested that the Lyme disease infection now spread by ticks was accidentally released from the lab, which has been operating for some 60 years. Carroll also blames the lab as being the possible source of West Nile virus and the Dutch duck plague.

Another writer, Kenneth King, in his book Germs Gone Wild, also has expounded on Carroll’s concerns.

Government officials deny that nefarious activities were going on at Plum Island, but we know from experience that denial and reality may be two different things. If experimental new strains of Ebola were accidentally released from that lab during the storms, what other horrors were spread over the landscape?

SOURCE: http://perdurabo10.tripod.com/galleryl/id65.html
 
Monotreme's latest blog over at the PFI Forum. Monotreme is the resident virologist and founder of the forum.


Temporal and quantitative framework for intervention in the Ebola pandemic
http://monotreme1000.wordpress.com/...tive-framework-for-intervention-in-the-ebola/

The following projection involves estimates based on media accounts of reported cases as well as estimates of unreported cases.

First some assumptions:

1 HCW is needed for every 10 Ebola patients
There are 10,000 to 20,000 patients not receiving care currently.
By mid-November, this number will jump to 100,000-200,000, without immediate intervention.
By some time in January, this number will reach 1-2 million.

Second, some math:

1,000 to 2,000 additional HCWs are needed immediately, as in, on this very day. This number could be reasonably be acheived if it was made a priority.

If additional HCWs are delayed until mid-November, 10,000 to 20,000 HCWs will be required. Although technically possible, it is unlikely that this number could be mobilised.

If additional HCWs are delayed until January, 100,000 - 200,000 will be needed. This number almost certainly will not be acheived.

Conclusion

Plans to plan, plans to meet to plan, speeches about plannning, speeches about potential deployments, promises to deploy at some point in the future are all equally useless. Either HCWs deploy within the next few weeks or Africa is doomed. Plan B will be to let the virus burn through the continent and attempt to limit it to there while more developed countries develop vaccine for their own populations.

That is all.
 
Here is my follow-up question over at the PFI Forum. I will post Monotreme's response whenever he gets back online. Anybody else here have any ideas regarding my questions?


Monotreme,

I fully agree with all of your assessments and action plans in regards to vaccination, but let's go a little further down the road because this has not been fully explored.

What could go wrong, based on your knowledge, in regards to a vaccine possibly not being effective, or maybe being effective for awhile and then not being effective?

I think severe side-effects would be apparent fairly quickly among the HCWs. It is still a risk worth taking. I would take that risk, if I were them. So I am not particularly worried about that only in the sense that the pharmaceutical companies would have to go back to the drawing board and more time would be lost.

And the above is one more reason to quickly get this vaccine out to the HCWs.

Of course, if severe side effects did eventuate that would form the public's first impression of the safety of being vaccinated for Ebola.

I think that aside from that concern for the HCWs and the blowback from a failure would be the possibility that similar to influenza a vaccine might work for awhile and then it would not work.

And as there is no season to the spread of Ebola there would be no break in which to regroup to work up a new vaccine, one that would be slightly modified that would again be effective.

Based on your recent blog we think we know where the world is going on countering this tremendous threat. We are putting all of our eggs in one basket. The vaccine is a good bet, our best bet at the moment, but how certain is that bet?

Only confidence is projected in regards to the vaccine, but that is what one would expect since we have pinned all of our hopes on it. I just don't have the knowledge to make an assessment here. That is why I ask this of you.

Finally, would a vaccine possibly push Ebola in new directions, even if initially effective?
_________________
 

amarah

Contributing Member
Well thanks for that bit of morning doom,natty!!!

I 'm not feeling so safe even at camp fooked now:shkr:
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Friday, September 26, 2014

Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood
Can Kill 500,000 People


http://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2014/09/aerosolizing-one-drop-of-ebola-infected.html






---Video to be inserted here---
One milliLiter of aerosolized Ebola infected blood is capable of infecting
10,000,000 people
.
One DROP of aerosolized Ebola infected blood is capable of infecting 500,000 people.

Those are the maximum boundary conditions for Airborne Ebola infection based on
USAMRIID's report that an airborne dose of less than 10 Plaque Forming
Units [PFU] is capable of creating an infection
. Research indicates that one mL
of Ebola infected blood often contains on the order of 100,000,000 PFU's.

Of course this begs the question, how much could one sneeze in a room infect?

The Answers:

One milliLiter of Ebola infected blood, at maximum, is capable of infecting a
22,072 Square Foot room
to the extent that taking one breath of air from that
room would infect a person

One DROP of Ebola infected blood, at maximum, is capable of infecting a 1,104
Square Foot room
to the extent that taking one breath of air from that room
would infect a person

EbolablooddropdAerosolized_800w.jpg
^Click for full sized version.



The key take away from this analysis is that an INSANELY small amount of
Airborne Ebola has a MASSIVE infectious potential
. In fact Ebola's infectious
potential is so great that its not the amount of Ebola that is the infectious constraint,
rather the constraint is how long Ebola can survive in the Air.

Unfortunately, According to the US Army's Center for Aerobiological
Sciences
, Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick,
Maryland
:

(1) Ebola has an aerosol stability that is comparable to Influenza-A
(2) Much like Flu, Airborne Ebola transmissions need Winter type conditions
to maximize Aerosol infection
"Filoviruses, which are classified as Category A Bioterrorism Agents by
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA), have
stability in aerosol form comparable to other lipid containing
viruses such as influenza
A virus, a low infectious dose by the
aerosol route
(less than 10 PFU) in NHPs, and case fatality rates as
high as ~90% ."​
"The mode of acquisition of viral infection in index cases is usually
unknown. Secondary transmission of filovirus infection is typically
thought to occur by direct contact with infected persons or infected blood
or tissues. There is no strong evidence of secondary transmission by the
aerosol route in African filovirus outbreaks. However, aerosol
transmission is thought to be possible and may occur in
conditions of lower temperature and humidity which may not
have been factors in outbreaks in warmer climates
[13]. At the
very least, the potential exists for aerosol transmission, given that
virus is detected in bodily secretions, the pulmonary alveolar
interstitial cells, and within lung spaces"
In summary:

Quite possibly the only thing standing between us and a massive EBOLA
outbreak is, Winter Weather and ONE Ebola infected sneeze.


Sources:

Preparedness for Prevention of Ebola Virus Disease

http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/4/10/2115/pdf

US ARMY Says EBOLA = FLU in Airborne Stability,
Needs Winter Weather To Go Airborne



http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0041918

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997182/

http://vet.sagepub.com/content/50/3/514.full

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4113787/

Ebola Bodily Fluids Readily Weaponizable Using An Ultrasonic Humidifier


Ebola Emergency ZMAPP Production Rates & Costs


CDC's "Lesser Of Evils" Double Standard On Health Care Worker Protection
Indicates They Expect a Large Ebola Outbreak In USA



CDC Warns Hospitals On EBOLA "CONTAMINATED AIR"
and Directs use of "Airborne Infection Isolation Room"s



Inhalation Ebola: Governments Ready For World War Ebola


CDC Sees AIRBORNE EBOLA Transmission, Issues Guidance
For Aircraft Flight Crews, Cleaning & Cargo Crews



CDC is already evacuating DOUBLE the number of expected Ebola infected personnel
at a rate of 7 doctors per month
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Well thanks for that bit of morning doom,natty!!!

I 'm not feeling so safe even at camp fooked now:shkr:

^ That's why I built my underground complex, and installed the 57 Megawatt experimental Thorium Reactor.
With dual airlocks, and a 50 ft deep elevator shaft, Level 4 Bio-security can be maintained indefinitely.

We had a bit of a leakage problem when enthusiastic Camp Fooked engineers dug the moat a little deep,
but the newly reinforced concrete ceilings ameliorated the problem.
 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
Ebola outbreak: Liberia's chief medical officer places herself under quarantine

The Associated Press
Published Saturday, September 27, 2014 7:29AM EDT
Last Updated Saturday, September 27, 2014 10:55AM EDT
MONROVIA, Liberia -- Liberia's chief medical officer is placing herself under quarantine for 21 days after her office assistant died of Ebola.
Bernice Dahn, a deputy health minister who has represented Liberia at regional conferences intended to combat the ongoing epidemic, told The Associated Press on Saturday that she did not have any Ebola symptoms but wanted to ensure she was not infected.

The World Health Organization says 21 days is the maximum incubation period for Ebola, which has killed more than 3,000 people across West Africa and is hitting Liberia especially hard. WHO figures released Friday said 150 people died in the country in just two days.

Liberia's government has asked people to keep themselves isolated for 21 days if they think they have been exposed. The unprecedented scale of the outbreak, however, has made it difficult to trace the contacts of victims and quarantine those who might be at risk.
"Of course we made the rule, so I am home for 21 days," Dahn said Saturday. "I did it on my own. I told my office staff to stay at home for the 21 days. That's what we need to do."

Health officials, especially front-line doctors and nurses, are particularly vulnerable to Ebola, which is spread via the bodily fluids of infected patients. Earlier this month, WHO said more than 300 health workers had contracted Ebola in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three most-affected countries. Nearly half of them had died.

Making sure health care workers have the necessary supplies, including personal protective equipment, has been a challenge especially given that many flights in and out of Ebola-affected countries have been cancelled.

At an emergency meeting of the African Union on Sept. 8, regional travel hub Senegal said it was planning to open a "humanitarian corridor" to affected countries.
Senegal was expected on Saturday to receive a flight carrying humanitarian staff from Guinea -- the first time aid workers from one of the three most-affected countries were allowed in Senegal since the corridor was opened, said Alexis Masciarelli, spokesman for the World Food Program.
The airport in Dakar, Senegal's capital, has set up a terminal specifically for humanitarian flights where thorough health checks will be conducted, Masciarelli said.

The current plan calls for two weekly rotations between Dakar and Ebola-affected countries and a third weekly rotation between Dakar and Accra, Ghana, where a special UN mission to fight Ebola will be headquartered, Masciarelli said.
Mustapha Sidiki Kaloko, African Union commissioner for social affairs, said Saturday he plans to travel to West Africa Sunday to meet regional leaders and airline executives to try to convince them to resume flights cancelled because of Ebola.
The first batch of an AU Ebola taskforce, totalling 30 people, left for Liberia on Sept. 18, Kaloko said. Taskforce members are expected to arrive in Sierra Leone on Oct. 5 and in Guinea by the end of October, he said.


Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/ebola-...self-under-quarantine-1.2027435#ixzz3EWpr4akB
 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
Since the Start of the Ebola Outbreak, Half of Liberian Doctors Have Died

DURHAM, NC - Anthropologist Mary H. Moran told a Duke audience this week to look past the medical chaos and doomsday tales surrounding the current Ebola pandemic and understand the overall political and sociocultural context.

Moran, professor of anthropology and Africana and Latin American studies at Colgate University, has been studying politics and society in Liberia since the early 1980s. As part of a series of Ebola Week events, she spoke Tuesday to students and faculty on “Can Sirleaf Survive Ebola?”

Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf is the first democratically elected female president of an African nation. She currently has two years left in her second and final term as president.

Since her election in 2005, Sirleaf has significantly decreased Liberia’s foreign debt, bolstered natural resource extraction and promoted other social and economic development, Moran said. Sirleaf also shared the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize with two other women.

But her presidency has been characterized by as much corruption as success, and coupled with the government’s insufficient response to Ebola, Liberians are increasingly calling for Sirleaf’s resignation.

“It’s clear that many of the accomplishments she was able to achieve will be tarnished because of [Ebola],” Moran said. “It will sadly enough be her legacy, and the best we can hope for is that Liberians will refuse to put up with the kind of government they have put up with for the last decade.”



A context of conflict

Civil conflict as much as general political corruption is an important factor in the failure to contain the epidemic, Moran said. Between 1989 and 2003, Liberia experienced two civil wars, decimating its infrastructure.

“If you have a catastrophic civil war and you are defined as a failed state and occupied by 15,000 United Nations troops to provide security, you no longer have a lot of control of your own national policy, even though you’ve gone through an election,” Moran said. “Many of the priorities of your budget and attention are being determined outside of the boundaries of the state.”

As a result, Liberia’s public healthcare system consists almost entirely of several humanitarian organizations with no centralized leadership.

“The state health policy has become the vector for this disease,” she said. “Because there had been no systematic investment in healthcare infrastructure and there was an extensive goal to decentralize services in post-war Liberia, most of the [healthcare] provisions were still being done by private humanitarian organizations.”

Despite increased domestic and international military efforts to control the spread of Ebola, including President Barack Obama’s recent pledge of 3,000 U.S. soldiers, Moran said the situation could only improve if Liberians have access to more medical professionals.

At the start of this outbreak, Liberia had one doctor for every 100,000 people, Moran said. But since June, half the doctors in Liberia have died.

“In rural clinics in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia where patients first appeared in early days of the epidemic, many found only shells of buildings and dying providers,” Moran said. “And that in many ways is the enormous tragedy of this.”



Inaccurate media coverage

Moran criticized Western press coverage of the outbreak, citing numerous articles that blamed traditional African practices or corrupt politics for the spread of Ebola.

“Having had a war in the last 10 years makes a huge difference in the ability of a public health system to absorb a threat like this,” Moran said. “Being an African public health system is not what makes a difference in containing a threat like this.”

She urged the audience to ignore reports that “these are irrational people who believe in juju, eat nasty animals and are suspicious of Western medicine.”

“People are giving up their sick dying and dead family members to people wearing anonymous white space suits, in most cases never to see them again,” Moran said. “Give them the benefit of the doubt that, just like Americans, if people in your family are sick, you want to take care of them.”

http://today.duke.edu/2014/09/liberia
 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
Ebola Clinics Fill up as Liberia Awaits Aid

MONROVIA, Liberia — Sep 27, 2014, 9:56 AM ET

Fourteen-year-old D.J. Mulbah set off at dawn with his mother and grandmother in desperate pursuit of a coveted bed at the Ebola clinic run by Doctors Without Borders in Liberia's capital.

Too weak to stand, they bundled him up into a taxi with his backpack and a yellow plastic bucket for his vomit. Now he lay on the dirt beside the worried women awaiting word on how many new patients would enter the clinic today.

"He's been sick for a week with a runny stomach," says his distressed mother, wiping the sweat off the boy's brow with her bare hands. "We tried calling an ambulance days ago but nobody ever came."

By 8 a.m. there are a dozen suspected Ebola patients crouching and sitting on the ground outside the metal padlocked gates of the facility that can only hold 160 patients. Soon a triage nurse approaches, her voice muffled through a surgical mask covered by a plastic face shield. The news is good, and D.J. manages a faint smile: The clinic will take the boy.

His fortune though comes only from the sorrow of others: Of the 30 new beds available Saturday morning, only seven were made empty by survivors. And the limitations are stark: A sign in a staff tent inside the outdoor hospital warns: "NO IV lines to be inserted until we have enough staff."

Six months after West Africa's first Ebola outbreak emerged, generous offers of aid are finally pouring in, but beds for the sick are filling up as fast as clinics can be built. The hundreds of millions of dollars will also be arriving too late for thousands here as the world's worst-ever outbreak now has killed more than half its victims.

And even as countries try to marshal more resources to close the gap, those needs threaten to become much greater, and possibly even insurmountable. Ambulance sirens blare through standstill traffic here in Monrovia, though often there is nowhere to take the sick except to so-called "holding centers" where they await a bed at an Ebola treatment facility.

Dr. Joanne Liu, international president of Doctors Without Borders, urged world leaders this week to take "immediate action."

"The promised surge has not yet delivered," she said.

Statistics reviewed by The Associated Press and interviews with experts and those on the scene of one of the worst health disasters in modern history show how great the needs are and how little the world has done in response.

— The existing bed capacity for Ebola patients in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea and Nigeria is about 820, well short of the 2,900 beds that are currently needed, according to the World Health Organization. Recently 737 beds were pledged by countries. Yet even after the promised treatment facilities are built, they will still be at least 2,100 beds short.

And if more people get sick than those who recover or die, the shortage will grow even more pronounced. MSF and other aid workers are distributing home care kits with gloves and surgical gowns to try and keep those awaiting hospital beds from infecting relatives while at home, though the distribution of thousands is still far short in Monrovia, a city of 1.6 million.

— The shortage of health workers is also great. WHO has estimated that 1,000 to 2,000 international health workers are needed in West Africa and says it is having trouble recruiting enough help. More than 200 health workers have died as they tried to save lives, complicating recruiting efforts.

Doctors Without Borders, which has more Ebola clinics than anyone, currently has 248 foreign aid workers in the region. The U.S. has pledged to train some 500 local health workers a week, but officials acknowledge that goal is unrealistic in the current environment.

The African Union has said it will deploy 100 health workers to assist the West African countries affected by Ebola. The first 30 health workers from the A.U.'s Ebola Taskforce left for Liberia on Sept 18. The next 30 are expected to leave for Sierra Leone on Oct 5, and the final 40 will be deployed to Guinea in late October.

Meanwhile, Liberia's chief medical officer placed herself in quarantine for 21 days after her office assistant died of Ebola. Bernice Dahn, a deputy health minister who has represented Liberia at regional conferences, told The Associated Press on Saturday that she did not have any Ebola symptoms but wanted to ensure she was not infected.

In Liberia's capital, construction workers are building new centers until nightfall, putting up tin-roof structures with white plastic sheeting for walls. In two weeks' time — if the work isn't delayed by the rainy season's torrential downpours — 200 sick people can be treated there.

Dr. Frank Mahoney, co-lead of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control team in Liberia, said: "We have been working furiously trying to set up treatment centers but (incoming patients) have been outpacing our ability to set them up."

Unless the situation is put under control, the outbreak may infect as many as 1.4 million people by the end of the year and nearly half of those people could die, the CDC estimated this week. More than 3,000 are currently believed to have died from Ebola, which is spread through direct contact with the bodily fluids of the sick.

"If this outbreak continues, the sheer caseload will make it much more difficult to contain," said Dr. Bruce Aylward, assistant-director general in charge of emergencies at WHO. "We will need more health workers to take care of them, more PPE (protective suits), more hospitals, more of everything."

President Barack Obama has ordered up to 3,000 U.S. military personnel to West Africa to train health workers and build more than a dozen 100-bed field hospitals including reserved sections for infected aid workers in Liberia, the country hardest hit by the disease.

Britain and France have both pledged to build field hospitals in Sierra Leone and Guinea. China is sending a 59-person lab team to Sierra Leone. Cuba will send 461 health workers, who will be trained in biosecurity, and some will go to Liberia and Guinea.

A top priority is sending enough protective equipment, including gloves, gowns, masks and boots. WHO is shipping about 240,000 protective suits a month in addition to supplies sent by other agencies. Yet there are still reports of under-sourced clinics washing and reusing protective gear that is meant to be worn once and then incinerated.

"We still do have gaps in the supply, which are quite significant," said Antonio Vigilante, the Deputy Special Representative of the U.N. Secretary-General in Liberia. "Nobody expected that the requirements of protective gear would go in the order of millions." Liberia now requires an estimated 1.3 million protective suits, Vigilante said.

One of the world's top makers of the suits, DuPont, says it has more than doubled production but would not say who has placed orders. Officials are also looking into whether protective clothing can be locally produced.

"The situation on the ground is just disastrous," said Dr. Heinz Feldmann, chief of virology at the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who recently returned from Liberia. "The idea of having hundreds of people in tent structures for Ebola management is unbelievable but the way this is spreading, we need to find a solution now."

http://news.newslnk.tk/6fl
 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
Guinea Residents Refusing Ebola Treatment

Residents of the Guinean capital Conakry, hit hard by Ebola, say they are afraid to seek treatment at hospitals for fear of being poisoned by doctors, as the death toll across West Africa passed the 3,000 mark.
Local resident Tairu Diallo said on Friday that people living in his neighbourhood refused to seek medical help and instead stayed at home, trying to alleviate their symptoms with drugs bought at a pharmacy.
Diallo said people think doctors at hospitals inject patients with a deadly poison.
“If we have a stomach ache we don’t go to hospital because doctors there will inject you and you will die,” he said.
Many Guineans say local and foreign healthcare workers are part of a conspiracy which either deliberately introduced the outbreak, or invented it as a means of luring Africans to clinics to harvest their blood and organs.
Earlier in September, eight people, including journalists and Ebola-related educators, were killed in southeastern Guinea.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Friday that the death toll in West Africa has risen to at least 3,091 out of 6,574 probable, suspected and confirmed cases.
Liberia has recorded 1,830 deaths, around three times as many as in either Guinea or Sierra Leone, the two other most
affected countries, according to WHO data received up to September 23.
An outbreak that began in a remote corner of Guinea has taken hold of much of neighbouring Liberia and Sierra Leone,
prompting warnings that tens of thousands of people may die from the worst outbreak of the disease on record.
The WHO said Liberia had reported six confirmed cases of Ebola and four deaths in the Grand Cru district, which is near the border with Ivory Coast and had not previously recorded any cases of Ebola.
Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara said on Friday that his country will lift the controversial suspension of flights to countries affected by the Ebola virus. He said there was no longer a reason to restrict air travel.
There are no reported cases of Ebola in Ivory Coast.
Nigeria and Senegal, the two other nations that have had confirmed cases of Ebola in the region, have not recorded any new cases or deaths in the last few weeks.
Source:punch

http://okeymartins.blogspot.com/2014/09/guinea-residents-refusing-ebola.html

(blogger who live in Port Harcourt, Nigeria)
 

fi103r

Veteran Member


We had a bit of a leakage problem when enthusiastic Camp Fooked engineers dug the moat a little deep,
but the newly reinforced concrete ceilings ameliorated the problem.


Well to be exact that wasn't the moat it was the diversion channel from the laterines in the secondary reserve remote camping ground, all the rest were being plumbed into that wizbang recycling thang you were working, oh boy were those gators and catfish ticked they were enjoying all that fresh water and bacon grease from the kitchen drains.
BTW wait til you see the biodiesel rig we got running.
 
Last edited:

jaw1969

Senior Member
Friday, September 26, 2014

Aerosolizing ONE DROP of Ebola Infected Blood
Can Kill 500,000 People


http://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2014/09/aerosolizing-one-drop-of-ebola-infected.html






---Video to be inserted here---
One milliLiter of aerosolized Ebola infected blood is capable of infecting
10,000,000 people
.
One DROP of aerosolized Ebola infected blood is capable of infecting 500,000 people.

Those are the maximum boundary conditions for Airborne Ebola infection based on
USAMRIID's report that an airborne dose of less than 10 Plaque Forming
Units [PFU] is capable of creating an infection
. Research indicates that one mL
of Ebola infected blood often contains on the order of 100,000,000 PFU's.

Of course this begs the question, how much could one sneeze in a room infect?

The Answers:

One milliLiter of Ebola infected blood, at maximum, is capable of infecting a
22,072 Square Foot room
to the extent that taking one breath of air from that
room would infect a person

One DROP of Ebola infected blood, at maximum, is capable of infecting a 1,104
Square Foot room
to the extent that taking one breath of air from that room
would infect a person

View attachment 112153
^Click for full sized version.



The key take away from this analysis is that an INSANELY small amount of
Airborne Ebola has a MASSIVE infectious potential
. In fact Ebola's infectious
potential is so great that its not the amount of Ebola that is the infectious constraint,
rather the constraint is how long Ebola can survive in the Air.

Unfortunately, According to the US Army's Center for Aerobiological
Sciences
, Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick,
Maryland
:

(1) Ebola has an aerosol stability that is comparable to Influenza-A
(2) Much like Flu, Airborne Ebola transmissions need Winter type conditions
to maximize Aerosol infection
"Filoviruses, which are classified as Category A Bioterrorism Agents by
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA), have
stability in aerosol form comparable to other lipid containing
viruses such as influenza
A virus, a low infectious dose by the
aerosol route
(less than 10 PFU) in NHPs, and case fatality rates as
high as ~90% ."​
"The mode of acquisition of viral infection in index cases is usually
unknown. Secondary transmission of filovirus infection is typically
thought to occur by direct contact with infected persons or infected blood
or tissues. There is no strong evidence of secondary transmission by the
aerosol route in African filovirus outbreaks. However, aerosol
transmission is thought to be possible and may occur in
conditions of lower temperature and humidity which may not
have been factors in outbreaks in warmer climates
[13]. At the
very least, the potential exists for aerosol transmission, given that
virus is detected in bodily secretions, the pulmonary alveolar
interstitial cells, and within lung spaces"
In summary:

Quite possibly the only thing standing between us and a massive EBOLA
outbreak is, Winter Weather and ONE Ebola infected sneeze.


Sources:

Preparedness for Prevention of Ebola Virus Disease

http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/4/10/2115/pdf

US ARMY Says EBOLA = FLU in Airborne Stability,
Needs Winter Weather To Go Airborne



http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0041918

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997182/

http://vet.sagepub.com/content/50/3/514.full

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4113787/

Ebola Bodily Fluids Readily Weaponizable Using An Ultrasonic Humidifier


Ebola Emergency ZMAPP Production Rates & Costs


CDC's "Lesser Of Evils" Double Standard On Health Care Worker Protection
Indicates They Expect a Large Ebola Outbreak In USA



CDC Warns Hospitals On EBOLA "CONTAMINATED AIR"
and Directs use of "Airborne Infection Isolation Room"s



Inhalation Ebola: Governments Ready For World War Ebola


CDC Sees AIRBORNE EBOLA Transmission, Issues Guidance
For Aircraft Flight Crews, Cleaning & Cargo Crews



CDC is already evacuating DOUBLE the number of expected Ebola infected personnel
at a rate of 7 doctors per month



This is the most relevant information EVER COMPILED in one place.. Thanks for your work
 

ittybit

Inactive
Monotreme's latest blog over at the PFI Forum. Monotreme is the resident virologist and founder of the forum.


Temporal and quantitative framework for intervention in the Ebola pandemic
http://monotreme1000.wordpress.com/...tive-framework-for-intervention-in-the-ebola/

The following projection involves estimates based on media accounts of reported cases as well as estimates of unreported cases.

First some assumptions:

1 HCW is needed for every 10 Ebola patients
There are 10,000 to 20,000 patients not receiving care currently.
By mid-November, this number will jump to 100,000-200,000, without immediate intervention.
By some time in January, this number will reach 1-2 million.

Second, some math:

1,000 to 2,000 additional HCWs are needed immediately, as in, on this very day. This number could be reasonably be acheived if it was made a priority.

If additional HCWs are delayed until mid-November, 10,000 to 20,000 HCWs will be required. Although technically possible, it is unlikely that this number could be mobilised.

If additional HCWs are delayed until January, 100,000 - 200,000 will be needed. This number almost certainly will not be acheived.

Conclusion

Plans to plan, plans to meet to plan, speeches about plannning, speeches about potential deployments, promises to deploy at some point in the future are all equally useless. Either HCWs deploy within the next few weeks or Africa is doomed. Plan B will be to let the virus burn through the continent and attempt to limit it to there while more developed countries develop vaccine for their own populations.

That is all.

So, here's the issue I see with the above: counting or projecting need for Health Care Workers (HCW) is a very inadequate conceptualization. (It does, however, have usefulness in thinking about the real end result.)

In order for HCW's to work they need facilities and supplies ... and ... the concept that HCWs are what is needed is an illusion. HCWs treat existing Pts who can be admitted. There is no way to interdict, coral, quarantine, etc all those in the general population which have been exposed to or are in the early stages of this disease. HCWs are working on the problem after the horse has gotten out of the barn.

IOW, adding more resources (staff, supplies, facilities) can never "solve" this problem, because it is a reactive response to an existing situation far, far out of any kind of control. There will be no stopping this. Adding more resources is doomed to instantly being overwhelmed by the advance of the pandemic. The writer's information on projections and the final conclusion that it will burn through Africa at a minimum is the salient point.

Africa will be depopulated to the point where it can't readily spread to remaining uninfected groups. This will probably take on some chacteristics of The Stand.

Be ready for virtually all of Africa's resource exports to go off line in 2015. I am concerned that the pathway to North America will be through Brazil.

Also, we need to be aware that there is NO willingness (on the part of governments) to stop the international movement of people (at this time). As we are getting a preview with EV-D68 being brought up to North America by the government enabled importation of huge waves of "children" from Central America, we WILL be seeing many, many new contagious diseases coming to North America via these refuge seekers.

Ebola is only one part of this equation. It is already happening now.
 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
Doctor treats Ebola with HIV drug in Liberia -- seemingly successfully

By Elizabeth Cohen, Senior Medical Correspondent
updated 10:57 AM EDT, Sat September 27, 2014

(CNN) -- A doctor in rural Liberia inundated with Ebola patients says he's had good results with a treatment he tried out of sheer desperation: an HIV drug.
Dr. Gobee Logan has given the drug, lamivudine, to 15 Ebola patients, and all but two survived. That's a 7% mortality rate.

Across West Africa, the virus has killed 70% of its victims.
Outside Logan's Ebola center in Tubmanburg, four of his recovering patients walk the grounds, always staying inside the fence that separates the Ebola patients from everyone else.

"My stomach was hurting; I was feeling weak; I was vomiting," Elizabeth Kundu, 23, says of her bout with the virus. "They gave me medicine, and I'm feeling fine. We take it, and we can eat -- we're feeling fine in our bodies."
Kundu and the other 12 patients who took the lamivudine and survived, received the drug in the first five days or so of their illness. The two patients who died received it between days five and eight.
"I'm sure that when [patients] present early, this medicine can help," Logan said. "I've proven it right in my center."


Logan is mindful that lamivudine can cause liver and other problems, but he says it's worth the risk since Ebola is so deadly.
He also knows American researchers will say only a real study can prove effectiveness. That would involve taking a much larger patient population and giving half of them lamivudine and the other half a placebo.
"Our people are dying and you're taking about studies?" he said. "It's a matter of doing all that I can do as a doctor to save some people's lives."

Logan said he got the idea to try lamivudine when he read in scientific journals that HIV and Ebola replicate inside the body in much the same way.
"Ebola is a brainchild of HIV," he said. "It's a destructive strain of HIV."
At first he tried an HIV drug called acyclovir, but it didn't seem to be effective. Then he tried lamivudine on a healthcare worker who'd become ill, and within a day or two he showed signs of improvement and survived.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases says that theoretically, Logan's approach has some merit. Lamivudine is a nucleocide analog, and other drugs in this class are being studied to treat Ebola.
Fauci asked CNN to give Logan his email address, saying perhaps his lab could do some follow up work.
Logan says he plans to email Fauci this weekend.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/27/health/ebola-hiv-drug/index.html?eref=mobiles_republic
 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
Someone was asking about the article about ebola being manufactured by the US and brought over to Africa to purposely infect people there with it. The article is originally from here : http://www.liberianobserver.com/security/ebola-aids-manufactured-western-pharmaceuticals-us-dod

I have already posted it to the thread :)

She

NOTE: This person who wrote it? Is a A Liberian-born faculty member of Delaware University. Here's a follow up that just came out... http://www.theroot.com/articles/cul..._broderick_accuses_us_of_spreading_ebola.html
 
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summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
Natty note: this is from 2012





Ebola is clearly a form of hemorrhagic fever. Thus the question rises; is the disease that is spreading among the Michigan deer herds also a form of Ebola? If it is carried by biting flies, is there a chance that the virus will mutate to a form that will infect humans?


HIGHLY unlikely... if this could have happened, it almost certainly would have happened in Africa, which has no shortage of biting insects. Rabies is another filovirus, and there hasn't ever been a case of that being transmitted through insect vectors, although there are many rabid bats and raccoons around in many areas.

Ebola is scary enough the way it is. If it goes truly airborne, we won't need insects!

Summerthyme
 
Here is my follow-up question over at the PFI Forum. I will post Monotreme's response whenever he gets back online. Anybody else here have any ideas regarding my questions?


Monotreme,

I fully agree with all of your assessments and action plans in regards to vaccination, but let's go a little further down the road because this has not been fully explored.

What could go wrong, based on your knowledge, in regards to a vaccine possibly not being effective, or maybe being effective for awhile and then not being effective?

I think severe side-effects would be apparent fairly quickly among the HCWs. It is still a risk worth taking. I would take that risk, if I were them. So I am not particularly worried about that only in the sense that the pharmaceutical companies would have to go back to the drawing board and more time would be lost.

And the above is one more reason to quickly get this vaccine out to the HCWs.

Of course, if severe side effects did eventuate that would form the public's first impression of the safety of being vaccinated for Ebola.

I think that aside from that concern for the HCWs and the blowback from a failure would be the possibility that similar to influenza a vaccine might work for awhile and then it would not work.

And as there is no season to the spread of Ebola there would be no break in which to regroup to work up a new vaccine, one that would be slightly modified that would again be effective.

Based on your recent blog we think we know where the world is going on countering this tremendous threat. We are putting all of our eggs in one basket. The vaccine is a good bet, our best bet at the moment, but how certain is that bet?

Only confidence is projected in regards to the vaccine, but that is what one would expect since we have pinned all of our hopes on it. I just don't have the knowledge to make an assessment here. That is why I ask this of you.

Finally, would a vaccine possibly push Ebola in new directions, even if initially effective?
_________________

MONOTREME'S ANSWER:


Medical Maven,

The virus could definitely drift. All the more reason to use the vaccine now rather than wait. Using it now on HCWs could drive the number of future infections way down. That would greatly decrease the amount of virus circulating and mutating. Also, anything that decreases the number of infected makes it easier to apply conventional methods such as contact tracing.

I am not certain about this, but I think Ebola vaccine production capacity is being increased, not just the amount of vaccine. If this is true, then even if the virus changes, it won't take as long to develop a new one.

MY COMMENT:

So the likely best case scenario is that the vaccine will be effective, but only for a time, (just like the influenza vaccine). We have a "moving target". It sure sounds like a virus that will become endemic everywhere that it embeds.

____________
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
PBS Frontline 2014 - Ebola Outbreak ( Documentaries Full Length )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BwEZbRO1Js
Documentary on the #Ebola outbreak
for which @WaelDabbous was the Producer




Unreported World: Surviving Ebola review
– nightmare hospital where ambulances double as hearses
‘I’m feeling cold, sir’ said the little girl …
This brave documentary reminds us the Ebola crisis is vividly real
and heartbreakingly sad​

Sam Wollaston
The Guardian, Friday 26 September 2014
[*]
http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-r...rviving-ebola-review-c4-sierra-leone-hospital


ebola-hospital-sierra-leo-009.jpg


Medical staff and orderlies dealing with the harsh realities of Africa's health crisis
in Unreported World: Surviving Ebola. Photograph: Pro Co/Quicksilver/Channel 4

A makeshift jungle hospital – tents, corrugated iron roofs and bright
orange barriers – looks more like some kind of sinister detention centre.
The people here are even more sinister-looking, in orange plastic suits,
white boots, green gloves, headdresses, masks, ski goggles, and not an
inch of actual person visible; they could be aliens. But these are the
staff, the doctors. They’re like this because we’re in Sierra Leone and
this is Unreported World: Surviving Ebola (Channel 4).

It looks like a nightmare. It is a nightmare – if anything, the title is
misleadingly optimistic. The death ledger book is filling up. There have
been 73 deaths in the past month alone. The body of the latest, a
nine-year-old boy, still highly infectious, is carried to the morgue, a
small bundle in a white plastic sheet. He will be buried round the back in
a clearing that is rapidly running out of space.

Victims have been hiding at home and infecting their families. More
patients arrive, six members of one family, staggering out of an
ambulance, very sick and very scared. The ambulances double up as
hearses.

Some people come in a van that is sprayed with chlorine after every
journey. Like this mother and her daughter. But she, the mother is
already dead. As her body is carried to the morgue, the seven-year-old
child cries out: “I’m feeling cold, sir, I’m feeling cold.” A tiny utterance,
but one of the saddest things I’ve ever heard. She dies later, too. The
van is sprayed.

And as if that wasn’t hell enough, there’s a rumour in the nearby town
that Ebola is just a hoax, devised by doctors so that they can steal blood
from people. They’re rioting. Civil unrest to add to the terror, vomit,
blood, diarrhoea and death, while Médecins Sans Frontières doctors fight
a battle it appears they cannot win.

Shaunagh Connaire and Wael Dabbous’s short film is a chilling and bleak
one. It is also brave – there must have been some risk involved. And it
is important. Of course you knew the Ebola story, but perhaps, like for
me, it was just that – a news story, distant, and a name. This was a
rude, visceral wake-up to the terrible reality.

 

SheWoff

Southern by choice
MM....I couldn't get past 1 HCW for 10 pt.'s. Depending on how sick they are at the time, that may be an unrealistic number considering how overworked the HCW's are now. If I were there I'd say the most I could do and give just adequate care is 1:5. Mind you, I'm an old ICU war horse who is used to at most 1:2 ratio. But to have to care for at least 10 at a time? I couldn't do it. If it is just for giving out injections?? Send em on and I can watch that many at a time for side effects. Just thought I'd throw that into the mix :)

She
 

jaw1969

Senior Member
MONOTREME'S ANSWER:


Medical Maven,

The virus could definitely drift. All the more reason to use the vaccine now rather than wait. Using it now on HCWs could drive the number of future infections way down. That would greatly decrease the amount of virus circulating and mutating. Also, anything that decreases the number of infected makes it easier to apply conventional methods such as contact tracing.

I am not certain about this, but I think Ebola vaccine production capacity is being increased, not just the amount of vaccine. If this is true, then even if the virus changes, it won't take as long to develop a new one.

MY COMMENT:

So the likely best case scenario is that the vaccine will be effective, but only for a time, (just like the influenza vaccine). We have a "moving target". It sure sounds like a virus that will become endemic everywhere that it embeds.

____________

If they don't deploy the vaccine soon the virus might drift enough to make the vaccine less effective or not effective at all.. In that case we have a large number of Health care workers infected because they thought they were protected. .
 
The WHO said Liberia had reported six confirmed cases of Ebola and four deaths in the Grand Cru district, which is near the border with Ivory Coast and had not previously recorded any cases of Ebola.

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara said on Friday that his country will lift the controversial suspension of flights to countries affected by the Ebola virus. He said there was no longer a reason to restrict air travel.
There are no reported cases of Ebola in Ivory Coast.


===

Ivory Coast Next?

===

.
 

fi103r

Veteran Member
We don't go to Camp Fooked to feel safe. We go to Camp Fooked because we have people there to sit with by the campfire.

Amen

I have the same thoughts I had back in 98/99 I am not going to sit around and watch the Library of Alexanderia burn down I have at hand info that my ancestors would have loved to have had and I am going to make sure there is not a rerun of the dark ages if I have anything to say about it.

That's why I come here

see info in alt med
recipies for rehydratiion juices

etc etc

good converstions and low signal to noise ratio

all that may make the difference between writing the casualty list or being on it.

r
 

SusieSunshine

Veteran Member
I hadn't seen this posted yet. Posted for fair use and discussion.

Liberia: Top doctor goes under Ebola quarantine

MONROVIA, Liberia (AP) -- Liberia's chief medical officer is placing herself under quarantine for 21 days after her office assistant died of Ebola.

Bernice Dahn, a deputy health minister who has represented Liberia at regional conferences intended to combat the ongoing epidemic, told The Associated Press on Saturday that she did not have any Ebola symptoms but wanted to ensure she was not infected.

e World Health Organization says 21 days is the maximum incubation period for Ebola, which has killed more than 3,000 people across West Africa and is hitting Liberia especially hard. WHO figures released Friday said 150 people died in the country in just two days.

Liberia's government has asked people to keep themselves isolated for 21 days if they think they have been exposed. The unprecedented scale of the outbreak, however, has made it difficult to trace the contacts of victims and quarantine those who might be at risk.

"Of course we made the rule, so I am home for 21 days," Dahn said Saturday. "I did it on my own. I told my office staff to stay at home for the 21 days. That's what we need to do."

Health officials, especially front-line doctors and nurses, are particularly vulnerable to Ebola, which is spread via the bodily fluids of infected patients. Earlier this month, WHO said more than 300 health workers had contracted Ebola in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three most-affected countries. Nearly half of them had died.

Making sure health care workers have the necessary supplies, including personal protective equipment, has been a challenge especially given that many flights in and out of Ebola-affected countries have been canceled.

At an emergency meeting of the African Union on Sept. 8, regional travel hub Senegal said it was planning to open a "humanitarian corridor" to affected countries.

Senegal was expected on Saturday to receive a flight carrying humanitarian staff from Guinea - the first time aid workers from one of the three most-affected countries were allowed in Senegal since the corridor was opened, said Alexis Masciarelli, spokesman for the World Food Program.

The airport in Dakar, Senegal's capital, has set up a terminal specifically for humanitarian flights where thorough health checks will be conducted, Masciarelli said.

The current plan calls for two weekly rotations between Dakar and Ebola-affected countries and a third weekly rotation between Dakar and Accra, Ghana, where a special U.N. mission to fight Ebola will be headquartered, Masciarelli said.

Mustapha Sidiki Kaloko, African Union commissioner for social affairs, said Saturday he plans to travel to West Africa Sunday to meet regional leaders and airline executives to try to convince them to resume flights canceled because of Ebola.

The first batch of an AU Ebola taskforce, totaling 30 people, left for Liberia on Sept. 18, Kaloko said. Taskforce members are expected to arrive in Sierra Leone on Oct. 5 and in Guinea by the end of October, he said.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EBOLA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Monotreme's latest blog over at the PFI Forum. Monotreme is the resident virologist and founder of the forum.


Temporal and quantitative framework for intervention in the Ebola pandemic
http://monotreme1000.wordpress.com/...tive-framework-for-intervention-in-the-ebola/

The following projection involves estimates based on media accounts of reported cases as well as estimates of unreported cases.

First some assumptions:

1 HCW is needed for every 10 Ebola patients
There are 10,000 to 20,000 patients not receiving care currently.
By mid-November, this number will jump to 100,000-200,000, without immediate intervention.
By some time in January, this number will reach 1-2 million.

Second, some math:

1,000 to 2,000 additional HCWs are needed immediately, as in, on this very day. This number could be reasonably be acheived if it was made a priority.

If additional HCWs are delayed until mid-November, 10,000 to 20,000 HCWs will be required. Although technically possible, it is unlikely that this number could be mobilised.

If additional HCWs are delayed until January, 100,000 - 200,000 will be needed. This number almost certainly will not be acheived.

Conclusion

Plans to plan, plans to meet to plan, speeches about plannning, speeches about potential deployments, promises to deploy at some point in the future are all equally useless. Either HCWs deploy within the next few weeks or Africa is doomed. Plan B will be to let the virus burn through the continent and attempt to limit it to there while more developed countries develop vaccine for their own populations.

That is all.

At what point do health care workers weigh the risks and say "No Thanks."

What percentage of HCW's in West Africa, caring for patients, have gotten the disease? (I haven't seen that number anywhere) eta: hadn't seen SheWolf's post about a country loosing 50% of their Doctor's...
 
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amarah

Contributing Member
We don't go to Camp Fooked to feel safe. We go to Camp Fooked because we have people there to sit with by the campfire.

Haha,true that!!!
No other group of friends I'd rather be with than my fellow TB campers,btw!!!
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
No other group of friends I'd rather be with than my fellow TB campers,btw!!!

I said "people" instead of "friends" because not all here would count as friends to me. That's a word I use carefully. But I'm glad to sit by the fire with all of you, because at least you aren't sheeple.
 
More from the PFI Forum.

WHO: 1000s of Ebola vaccine doses in coming months
http://www.phillytrib.com/news/article_47f950f3-ab2b-5dde-b22f-83a954ab3b9e.html?mode=jqm
Sarah DiLorenzo & Maria Cheng

Thousands of doses of experimental Ebola vaccines should be available in the coming months and could eventually be given to health care workers and other people at high risk of the deadly disease, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday.

No vaccine has yet been proved to be safe or effective in humans, said Marie-Paule Kieny, assistant director-general at WHO, who spoke at a press conference in Geneva that was later shared by email. Testing must first be done to ensure they are not harmful to people, some of which has already begun, she said.

The Canadian government has already donated 800 vials of one vaccine, which it developed before licensing to NewLink Genetics Corp. Kieny said the company is expected to produce several thousand more doses in the coming months. It's unclear how many doses the 800 vials hold because testing needs to be done to determine how large an effective dose is, but Kieny said it was probably about 1,500.

By the beginning of next year, there should be about 10,000 doses of another vaccine, developed by the U.S. National Institutes of Health and GlaxoSmithKline, Kieny said.

"This will not be a mass vaccination campaign," she said. Health workers or people known to have had contact with an infected person could be given a vaccine as early as January, as part of a bigger trial to test the shot's effectiveness, she said.

[snip]

MONOTREME'S COMMENT:

What possible justification can there be to deny HCWs in West Africa the available vaccine right now? Does it make sense to expose people who will gain no possible advantage from the vaccine to possible side-effects? Otoh, HCWs are dying from Ebola in droves. They stand to benefit greatly from the vaccine. Thus, from an ethical standpoint, it is HCWs in West Africa who should be enrolled in safety trials.

As regards effectiveness, how can we possibly get human data on this without vaccinating people exposed to Ebola? That will only happen by vaccinating HCWs in West Africa.

Finally, a vaccine given to HCWs right now could make a huge diiference in blunting the spread of the disease. If hundreds to thousands of HCWs were vaccinated now, they could treat tens of thousands of patients, which is probably the scope of the pandemic now. But if Margaret Chan's WHO is successful in delaying the vaccination of HCWs until January, it will be too late. Most of the West African HCWs will be dead. And what possible good will a few thousand vaccine doses do when there are millions of cases?

To have an effect in stopping Ebola, the vaccine must be deployed now, not January.

MY COMMENT:

I have been thinking more about this delay in the deployment of the vaccines. Could there be unpublished doubts about these vaccines that have not been revealed? So the pressure on WHO for reverting to the safe CYA position would be even stronger than normal. WHO has already been castigated roundly for failure to act this Spring. Maybe they don't want anything else to happen that could be directly blamed on them. In other words, protect the bureaucracy at all costs. And if Ebola runs away from them, everybody and their dog has already predicted that to happen. So this is the safer course for them, (to delay).

Another permutation of the above is that WHO has already written off Africa, and they want to make sure that they get good acceptance of a vaccination campaign in the First World, if it comes to that. However small the risk, WHO does not want to risk bad publicity about vaccinations for Ebola, whether the vaccination has side-effects or that it does not establish immunity.

Or it could be what it appears to be, i.e., just another "inexplicable" delay in countering the relentless, exponential march of Ebola.
________________
_
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
[FONT=Verdana,Arial][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial][FONT=Verdana,Arial]I have been thinking more about this delay in the deployment of the vaccines.
Could there be unpublished doubts about these vaccines that have not been revealed?
[/FONT]
[/FONT]


01/09/2014 / LIBERIA
'How I survived Ebola'
http://observers.france24.com/content/20140901-survivor-ebola-liberia-doctor-zmapp-epidemic


photosengateaser_0.jpg

Doctor Senga Omeonga recovered from the Ebola virus.

Senga Omeonga is doing better. Much better. Three weeks ago, FRANCE 24
interviewed this Congolese doctor who contracted the Ebola virus while working in
Monrovia, Liberia. At the time, he was wasting away in the hallway of a hospital,
without any treatment or food. Today, while he still feels weak, he no longer has the
virus. He told us about his journey to hell and back.

Doctor Senga Omeonga lost 20 kilos, and still speaks with a weak voice, but he’s
regained much of his strength, both physical and mental. He is one the very few,
very lucky survivors of the deadly Ebola epidemic, which has spread through
Western Africa in the past few months. Omeonga and two other doctors in Liberia
were given Zmapp, a drug that was tested for the first time in early August on two
American health workers, who have since recovered from the virus. However, this
experimental treatment hasn’t cured everyone: one of the doctors in Liberia who
was given Zmapp as treatment died last Sunday.



photosenga4.jpg

Doctor Senga Omeonga. Photo from his Facebook page.


"My status as a doctor working internationally worked in my favour in
getting me this drug"


Omeonga has worked for the five years at the John Fitzerald Medical Centre in
Monrovia, the capital of Liberia. He is originally from the Democratic Republic of
Congo.

quote_start.jpg
I’m still exhausted, but I know I’m out of the woods. On Thursday, I
underwent one last medical test, and it proved I am no longer infected. I had gone
home on Tuesday after having spent nearly three weeks at Elwa hospital, the only
medical centre in Monrovia that’s taking Ebola patients.

'People around me were dying like flies'

The first few days at that hospital were a real nightmare. There was not nearly
enough staff or medical supplies. Since there were no rooms available, I had to wait
in a hallway, lying on the ground, for a week. There was only one toilet for several
dozen patients. A friend of mine came every day to give me food. In these
conditions, I thought I would never survive; people around me were dying like flies.
A bed finally opened up, and a doctor treated me with Zmapp. He administered it to
me three times. I believe my status as a doctor working internationally worked in
my favour in getting me this drug. Still, it was risky – the third dose of Zmapp
almost killed me, since I had a strong allergic reaction to it,
and went into
anaphylactic shock.



Every day since then, I’ve been steadily getting better. I intend to go back to work
soon. My job as a doctor is to keep treating patients, including those who have
contracted the Ebola virus.

'Since I left the hospital, some of my friends are scared of me'


Since I’ve left the hospital, it’s been interesting to see that some of my friends are a
bit scared of me, at least those that don’t have any medical knowledge. Many of
them refuse to come visit me, thinking I may still be carrying the virus. In Liberia,
people living in regions touched by the epidemic have gone into a sort of mass
psychosis leading to very irrational acts [Editor’s Note: Villagers in a town
north-east of Monrovia recently barricaded a family in their home, where they died].

This fear is starting to spread all over the country. The health ministry is having
trouble recruiting medical staff – which means that hundreds of people will no doubt
die simply due to lack of personnel – and politicians are fleeing the country. [Editor’s
Note: President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf fired a number of high-ranking officials who
refused to return to the country to help fight the epidemic].

Ebola is contracted through direct contact with blood or body fluids, through sexual
intercourse or by handling contaminated cadavers. That’s why medical personnel
and those who do funerary services have been the most affected. According to the
World Health Organisation (WHO), to date, 240 health workers have contracted the
virus in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, of which 120 have died. The WHO
estimates that in the countries that in these three countries, there are only one or
two doctors per 100,000 residents. They are mostly concentrated in cities, while
Ebola has hit rural zones as well.


The latest statistics, from September 1, tally 3,069 cases of Ebola, of which 1,522
deaths, in four Western African countries (694 in Liberia, 430 in Guinea, 422 in
Sierra Leone, and six in Nigeria).

Post written with FRANCE 24 journalist Grégoire Remund (@gregoireremund).
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
washingtonpost_black_64.png


NIH expected to admit American patient
exposed to Ebola virus


September 27 at 6:38 PM
By Christian Davenport
http://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...eee7a4-4673-11e4-b437-1a7368204804_story.html
An American physician who was exposed to the Ebola virus is expected
to be admitted to the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Md., in
the coming days
, the research agency said in a statement Saturday
afternoon.

The patient, who was volunteering in an Ebola treatment unit in Sierra
Leone, will be admitted for observation and to enroll in a clinical study at
a center “specifically designed to provide high-level isolation
capabilities.” The action is being taken “out of an abundance of caution,”
the NIH said, adding that it “is taking every precaution to ensure the
safety of our patients, NIH staff, and the public.”

It stressed that “this situation is of minimal risk to NIH staff and the
public.”

The NIH did not release the patient’s name or any more information
about his or her condition. Officials said the patient could arrive as early
as Sunday.

Just because someone is exposed to the deadly virus, it “doesn’t
necessarily mean they are infected,” said Anthony S. Fauci, the director
of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the NIH.

The spread of the virus is the largest Ebola outbreak in history and the
first such outbreak in West Africa, according to the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention. The risk of an outbreak in the United States is
“very low,” the CDC said.

As of Friday, 3,083 deaths in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone have
been attributed to the virus, according to the World Health Organization.

The CDC has warned that the virus could potentially infect 1.4 million
people in Liberia and Sierra Leone by the end of January. And a recent
report in the New England Journal of Medicine said that the virus could
become endemic in the hardest-hit countries in West Africa.

The United States, however, has launched a $750 million effort to create
treatment facilities in Liberia. And this month, the U.N. Security Council
voted to create an emergency medical mission to help stem the
outbreak.

Also this month, the Liberian government, the WHO and nonprofit
partners are preparing to start a program to move infected people out of
their homes and into ad hoc centers in an effort to try to stem the
disease’s spread. The goal is to prevent the patients from infecting their
families and to offer at least basic care — food, water and pain medicine
— with many hospitals closed.

In Liberia on Saturday, the country’s chief medical officer announced
that she would quarantine herself after her office assistant died of Ebola,
the Associated Press reported.

Bernice Dahn, a deputy health minister who has represented Liberia at
regional conferences on combating the epidemic, told the AP that she did
not have Ebola symptoms but wanted to ensure she is not infected.

She said she would put herself under quarantine for 21 days, the virus’s
maximum incubation period.

“Of course we made the rule, so I am home for 21 days,” Dahn said. “I
did it on my own. I told my office staff to stay at home for the 21 days.
That’s what we need to do.”

In Guinea, officials said Saturday that the country’s appeals court had
been closed until further notice after a staffer there died of Ebola, the AP
reported.

“All the records of the department passed through the hands of this
woman,” an official said.

The patient to be admitted to the NIH is one of a few to be taken to
hospitals in the United States. Earlier this week, Richard Sacra, a
missionary doctor who was working in Liberia, was released from the
Nebraska Medical Center after contracting the virus.

Two other Americans have been discharged after they were successfully
treated in the United States for Ebola, including another doctor, Kent
Brantly, who later donated a unit of blood, or convalescent serum, to
Sacra.

Abby Phillip contributed to this report.
 

ittybit

Inactive
More from the PFI Forum.
MONOTREME'S COMMENT:

... Finally, a vaccine given to HCWs right now could make a huge diiference in blunting the spread of the disease.

Ummm, no. The disease is already like a raging wild fire in dry timber (running rampant in the general population). Having any number of Health Care Workers (HCW) immunized does not stop the spread of the disease within the general population. Health Care Workers work on people AFTER they have been infected. Their work effects the death rate of the infected, certainly. But there is no possible way a reasonable case can be made that treating people who are already infected with Ebola equates to reducing the spread of the disease in the general population.

I am not getting why this person is confusing this. It comes across to me as if they do not know what they are talking about.
 

fi103r

Veteran Member
Ummm, no. The disease is already like a raging wild fire in dry timber (running rampant in the general population). Having any number of Health Care Workers (HCW) immunized does not stop the spread of the disease within the general population. Health Care Workers work on people AFTER they have been infected. Their work effects the death rate of the infected, certainly. But there is no possible way a reasonable case can be made that treating people who are already infected with Ebola equates to reducing the spread of the disease in the general population.

I am not getting why this person is confusing this. It comes across to me as if they do not know what they are talking about.

I think, and I don't want to put words in people's mouth that was was meant was to innoculate health care workers to keep them from getting infected on the job.

It is a twofer
1 HCW does not get sick and can stay on job
2 the HCW is not an added vector to the epidemic

at least that is my take on the comment

r
 

Cyclonemom

Veteran Member
I've tried finding info about the unnamed mystery "fourth" person brought to the US (Atlanta) around Sept 9. Was that person ever released, or did he/she die and it was kept hidden?

Anybody know?
 
Last edited:

fi103r

Veteran Member
No, an abundance of caution calls for quarantine outside the country. This is lip service.

You got that right this makes what fifth or sixth active infection imported?

All these active infections generating what 20 barrels of toxic waste a day?!

all it takes is one dipstick throwing out the waste in the wrong bucket

geezz

r
 
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