OP-ED Kyle Mills: Terror or bio attack, nukes? No, America's greatest threat is our vulnerable electrical grid

ShadowMan

Designated Grumpy Old Fart
Nah....we will adapt, improvise and overcome. Never underestimate the ingenuity of Americans.....and don't "F" with us if you want to survive.

We

Will

Kill

YOU!
 
And relatively unreliable.

Owner has a sump-pump. About half the homes in our area do because of the near to the surface underlying rock/shale. Owner gets about 2 days of steady rain and he starts looking to the condition of his sump pumps.

And Owner has even had the grid power go off while the cellar is pumping out.

So he bought a generator.

He started with a USED Craigslist generator - $100. He fixed it up and it ran for about a week (2008 Ice Storm) until he didn't need it. Then he loaned it to a neighbor who used it overnight. While being used for the neighbor the engine threw a rod through the side of the block.

Turns out most Craigslist generators are now "beyond their service life" and subject to various maladies. Owner's friend the "Small Engine Repair Man" opines that a typical "contractor's generator" is good for about a week of continuous use - then plan on it failing. Small Engine Repair Man has a decidedly low opinion of contractor generators.

Owner now has yet another $100 generator - but he has not had to use it like the 2008 Ice Storm. The most recent try to run it as a test showed an issue with one of the "phases" (220V center ground) which Owner traced down to the plug connection between generator head and device local panel. The plug is multiple - and subject to corrosion.

Life of a contractor generator.

But the thought weighs on his mind - I can tell as Owner's search history shows he is looking at various "ex-Military" diesel generators online. Trying to get one with low hours for a good price seems to be what is holding him back.

And - of course - for long term use like nation-down grid condition, fuel might suddenly be hard to find.

Owner likes his kerosene lamps - but kerosene will probably run out before gasoline does in a grid emergency.

He now has a couple of Coleman white gas lanterns - and his solar panel and my solar LED light among others.

I don't like the dark.

Dobbin
I had a sump pump put in 20 yrs ago. Got a new pump since then, but the man who put it in also made a drain pipe.hole for me. I can leave the drain open and if the pump fails the water will just go down the drain. I use the pump in summer to make water for the duks. I have a huge tub to collect the water in. I have pvc pipe running out the house wall and into the tub, So since i have the drain i don't have to worry about the pump shutting down.
 

ejagno

Veteran Member
Many here are going on day 24 with no water, electricity and unreliable cell service at best. We are survivors but I guarantee you this BS of no beer was the worst struggle of them all for these hard working guys. I drove to Texas and filled the back of my SUV to keep the linemen and workers happy, happy, happy. Clotheslines and clothespins are the new essential home and garden must haves. When we evacuated I had 7 clothespins in my suitcase (used to keep hotel curtains closed, chip bags closed, etc...) and came home to find out they were just as vital as chainsaws and mosquito spray.
 

Dobbin

Faithful Steed
I think they don't care about the grid because they don't care about the people. My guess anyway.
They do care about the Grid because that is their conduit to move money from your wallet into theirs. When the Grid fails, that conduit closes.

Most in that field DO care about the Grid because that is what THEIR livelihood is based upon. And - secondarily - they do recognize how every facet of modern life is tied to the Grid - but most get limited by the world's greatest force of "return on equity" as to how much each individual can do.

So it's easy to blame "them" without looking at the underlying concept. Return on equity.

If it were your buck being invested, you might want a bit more invested to be sure YOU get what you want out of it. But what of the next person in line who does have power says "It all looks fine to me - what your problem?"

The whole Grid is built upon the low bidder. The least cost for the most electrical return buck. They don't build an iota of extra margin into the system UNTIL a weakness is shown - THEN they address the weakness. Thus the whole system exists as a sort of technological monument to "just barely enough."

Better to build this way than build in overcapacity, over durability, over resistance to upset - and have that particular dollar spent in an area where it turns out it is not needed, and deprive that dollar's performance to another part of the system (i.e. to buy a larger transformer instead of wire.)

So there is a "them" - but they're not perfection - just another human being.

Its not easy being human. Not everyone can do it - or fortunately has to.

Dobbin
 

ArisenCarcass

Veteran Member
Was that 90% down over 6 months of Winter, or over 6 months of summer?

I spent almost an hour trying to find the study to link, but failed. :(
I think that it was an average, and that it doen't really matter the season, since each has its own confounding factors.
For Winter, most Americans don't have a secondary non-grid heat source, nor enough food.
In Summer, oppressive heat and seasonal drought, combined with too much work required to make the food required for the year would do in many of our aging population.

I think that the effects would likely be felt more in the Winter, and that cold is much better at denying movement than heat.
The fact that rioting season usually ends when it's cold bears this out.
 

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The lack of clean water is what will kill the most people, winter or summer(though might be worse in the summer).
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The lack of clean water is what will kill the most people, winter or summer(though might be worse in the summer).

True. There is no way to store enough water to last months or years. Everyone needs their own water purification system. If you have your own well, that problem is solved, but lots of folks, like us, don't have access to a well. Even though you have a rain catchment system, you will still need a way to purify the water before consuming.
 
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mecoastie

Veteran Member
I spent almost an hour trying to find the study to link, but failed. :(
I think that it was an average, and that it doen't really matter the season, since each has its own confounding factors.
For Winter, most Americans don't have a secondary non-grid heat source, nor enough food.
In Summer, oppressive heat and seasonal drought, combined with too much work required to make the food required for the year would do in many of our aging population.

I think that the effects would likely be felt more in the Winter, and that cold is much better at denying movement than heat.
The fact that rioting season usually ends when it's cold bears this out.

It is buried in the 2008 EMP Commision Report. I have a copy at home somewhere.
 

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
If you have your own well, that problem is solved, but lots of folks, like us, don't have access to a well.
Even if you have a good well, it would be worthless to most people because with no power the water would just stay underground and help no one. Anyone can spend maybe $10 and build a well bucket out of plastic pipe and one or two fittings. Then you need a rope long enough to reach the static water level in your well. You also might need some information on how to remove all the crap in the well so you can use your new well bucket.
 

Milkweed Host

Veteran Member
For perspective, two watts will give you as much light as a kerosene lantern.

What I'm getting at here is an option that would be just above the use of the"D" cells battery option,
but very long term and with far more options

I have 5 watt 12 volt DC light bulbs that take about .42 amps. They provide lots of light.
They can be placed in almost any lamp and connected to a 12 volt battery. I have 12 volt
DVD players, 12 volt fans, battery chargers (Mostly 3.7 volt chargers for the 26650, 18650
series, which is the future of small batteries)

There are lots of 12 volt options on the table.

There are Mighty Max 12 volt agm, 22 amp hour batteries that can be purchased on ebay for
around $35-$42. I would go with agm over gel in this application because agm will take more
abuse.

Right now, there are quality, aluminum framed, monocrystalline solar panels, 12 volts, 20 watts on sale
at ebay for 30.00, shipping is included in that price.

I would have no issue setting a 20 watt 12 volt solar panel on the deck with a battery and connecting with
alligator clips. don't leave it there forever and do some mental math.

About 20 years ago, a solar panel installer and store owner told me that a charge controller consumes about
10% of the power and wasn't necessary for smaller setups. The setup that we were discussing was for
two 75 watt panels in parallel attached to a 100 amp hour battery. (No, I haven't tried it)

I currently have 16 20 watt 12 volt solar panels that will be given to kids as gifts, along with other
12 volt options.

I have 14 100 watts solar panels still in boxes, plus the 2 75 watt panels I referred to above.
I do have the Xantrex 40 amp charge/load/ controller along with lots and lots of 12 volts stuff.

I rarely use any of it as it's like insurance, something I hope never to use long term.

Again, the 20 watt solar panel and a smaller agm 12 volt battery would be an awesome
step-up to collecting extra small throw away batteries. Plus it's so easy and cost less that
collecting the AAA, AA, C, and D's that will expire and corrode.

Anyway, just my 2 watts worth.
 

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hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I have a different view than many on here (I know big surprise).
I don't see a lot of use for small solar during any long term grid down situation. I could see charging batteries for your comms and maybe for a couple of flashlights.
As for low-voltage LED indoor house lighting, not so much. Especially not without blackout curtains. And why need it much anyway? Go to bed early and get up early, sleep when it is dark. Use candles or a oil lamp when required.
Refrigeration would be nice but even a compact under-counter fridge needs 300 to 400 watts of solar plus two or more good batteries and a fair inverter.
What would you need a bunch of electronics for in a long-term grid down situation?
Solar stuff costs money. Everyone should spend their money wisely. A small solar battery charger and the rest of your money into food.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Considering the impact of the Covid 19 FUBAR on the US and globally, IMHO the article author should rethink his list rankings regarding pandemic/bio weapon attack in his risk pantheon.
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I have a different view than many on here (I know big surprise).
I don't see a lot of use for small solar during any long term grid down situation. I could see charging batteries for your comms and maybe for a couple of flashlights.
As for low-voltage LED indoor house lighting, not so much. Especially not without blackout curtains. And why need it much anyway? Go to bed early and get up early, sleep when it is dark. Use candles or a oil lamp when required.
Refrigeration would be nice but even a compact under-counter fridge needs 300 to 400 watts of solar plus two or more good batteries and a fair inverter.
What would you need a bunch of electronics for in a long-term grid down situation?
Solar stuff costs money. Everyone should spend their money wisely. A small solar battery charger and the rest of your money into food.

I read a book years ago, but I can't remember the name of it now. It was a book about living off grid, but instead of relying on solar and wind power, it was about going back to the 1800's lifestyle. It was a great book, and we learned a lot from it. I understand that for most people, that way of life is unthinkable, but our set up has worked well for us. Yes, we've turned off our power for a week at a time just to see how our system works. We did use our generator to keep the freezers and fridge running, but when fuel runs out, we're still good to go. I don't want to be dependent on any artificial set up that can break down for whatever reasons unforeseen.
 

rob0126

Veteran Member
They do care about the Grid because that is their conduit to move money from your wallet into theirs. When the Grid fails, that conduit closes.

Most in that field DO care about the Grid because that is what THEIR livelihood is based upon. And - secondarily - they do recognize how every facet of modern life is tied to the Grid - but most get limited by the world's greatest force of "return on equity" as to how much each individual can do.

So it's easy to blame "them" without looking at the underlying concept. Return on equity.

If it were your buck being invested, you might want a bit more invested to be sure YOU get what you want out of it. But what of the next person in line who does have power says "It all looks fine to me - what your problem?"

The whole Grid is built upon the low bidder. The least cost for the most electrical return buck. They don't build an iota of extra margin into the system UNTIL a weakness is shown - THEN they address the weakness. Thus the whole system exists as a sort of technological monument to "just barely enough."

Better to build this way than build in overcapacity, over durability, over resistance to upset - and have that particular dollar spent in an area where it turns out it is not needed, and deprive that dollar's performance to another part of the system (i.e. to buy a larger transformer instead of wire.)

So there is a "them" - but they're not perfection - just another human being.

Its not easy being human. Not everyone can do it - or fortunately has to.

Dobbin

thats where money trumps common sense.

some things should be overbuilt, when millions of lives depend upon it.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
As for low-voltage LED indoor house lighting, not so much. Especially not without blackout curtains. And why need it much anyway? Go to bed early and get up early, sleep when it is dark.


You must have some awesome natural lighting in your house.

Most people don't

I hate cooking without supplemental lighting, even in daytime....and I have west facing windows that face the stove.

How many women here would prefer to cook, clean and sew with just ambient light? (I do all of the above, so it's just a sample of inside activities that get done when sunlight is not always abailable)

To eschew extra light for little money is a silly POV, at least IMO.

Not far removed from, "AH ain't buying a generator, cuz when the balloon goes up, there won't be any fuel." Yet this same person will replace the contents of a freezer during an extended outage. :rolleyes:
 

rob0126

Veteran Member
You must have some awesome natural lighting in your house.

Most people don't

I hate cooking without supplemental lighting, even in daytime....and I have west facing windows that face the stove.

How many women here would prefer to cook, clean and sew with just ambient light? (I do all of the above, so it's just a sample of inside activities that get done when sunlight is not always abailable)

To eschew extra light for little money is a silly POV, at least IMO.

Not far removed from, "AH ain't buying a generator, cuz when the balloon goes up, there won't be any fuel." Yet this same person will replace the contents of a freezer during an extended outage. :rolleyes:

I agree that anything that can help in a crummy grid down situation, is better than nothing.

I like alernative ways to start fires (and have some) but you cant beat a bic lighter. (5.00 for a pack of 5)
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Don't know about that. They certainly have more ability for living like that but they still get a lot of supplies from the outside world.

I was referring to their ability to live off grid the old fashioned way, without all of our new fangled electricity producing gadgets and systems, or for their need for them. Would any of us be getting supplies from the outside world at that time?
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
I read a book years ago, but I can't remember the name of it now. It was a book about living off grid, but instead of relying on solar and wind power, it was about going back to the 1800's lifestyle. It was a great book, and we learned a lot from it. I understand that for most people, that way of life is unthinkable, but our set up has worked well for us. Yes, we've turned off our power for a week at a time just to see how our system works. We did use our generator to keep the freezers and fridge running, but when fuel runs out, we're still good to go. I don't want to be dependent on any artificial set up that can break down for whatever reasons unforeseen.

The problem with living the 1800s lifestyle now is we don't have that 1800s infrastructure. Most new construction houses don't have a chimney. Things like a wood cookstove are hard to find in usable shape. Most towns are no longer set up with the stores in walking distance. How about a local gristmill. Livery in town to get a horse or a wagon team if you need to hire? Local craftsmen with the skills and tools to manufacture/repair stuff?
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The problem with living the 1800s lifestyle now is we don't have that 1800s infrastructure. Most new construction houses don't have a chimney. Things like a wood cookstove are hard to find in usable shape. Most towns are no longer set up with the stores in walking distance. How about a local gristmill. Livery in town to get a horse or a wagon team if you need to hire? Local craftsmen with the skills and tools to manufacture/repair stuff?

We do. We heat and cook with wood. We have our own rain water catchment and purification system. Enough lamp oil and wicks to last a lifetime. Cary can make almost anything with wood from scratch using hand tools. We have a huge backyard just waiting to be planted next spring. We have designs to build our own smoke house for meats. Our neighbor down the road has horses and wagons he uses all the time to go places, and does his own blacksmithing. Last but not least, we have a country store within walking distance of our house that can order just about anything we might want or need. It pays to live rural.

The problem with our society today is that we have become spoiled to modern day conveniences. That will be our downfall if a grid down situation happens that last for a long period of time. We all will be doing the best we can with what we have.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
I doubt we would totally go back to pre-electricity civilization.

There may be some long term regional power outages tho.

Things would be a funky mixture of now and then.
 

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The problem with living the 1800s lifestyle now is we don't have that 1800s infrastructure. Most new construction houses don't have a chimney. Things like a wood cookstove are hard to find in usable shape. Most towns are no longer set up with the stores in walking distance. How about a local gristmill. Livery in town to get a horse or a wagon team if you need to hire? Local craftsmen with the skills and tools to manufacture/repair stuff?
You mean like this one?

1600455299386.png

Brand new at Lehman's. Do NOT need a chimney. All you need is a flue. Which we installed. The double insulated stainless steel flue can withstand extreme heat. Place your hand on while in use, or even during a chimney fire, and it is cool to the touch.

While brand new grist mills are available for purchase, even back in the day corn meal was available at stores. People in communities bought, and used grist mills to make money. My grandfather had one, and ran it off the rear wheel of a Model T.

BTW no one, and I mean no one wants to go back to those days. BUT you had better understand and make some arrangements of and for those days. Hummmm better than being dependent on the government for your power. Even genie's have their limitations. The last resort has always been fire.

As for fixing things I have all I need here.
 

KFhunter

Veteran Member
Poke around here.



@Millwright

I was thinking about the kubota generator, uses the same V3300 mechanical engine as my tractor and its very reliable.



Its oversized a bit, but I want to run everything in my shop too, gotta keep things fixed
 

Marie

Veteran Member
I grew up with very little electricity. We had a fridge and lights. I have everything needed to go long term without. I'm older but I have plenty set up to make life doable if I don't have it included horse drawn. I worry about the urban folks. Us country folks can take care of ourselves.
 
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