TECH Job Automation: Is it here? Should we be worried?

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
With the lockdown and staffing shortages there is a new elephant in the room. Full on job automation of high turn over, hard to fill menial labor based jobs. So where does the industry stand right now? I will give you the short answer, not anywhere for a while, but that is quickly changing, but do not worry about your jobs just yet.

First, floor cleaning has always been the number one area where I would have seen automation start as it is a very dangerous and laborious job. Leading up to full on automation great strides have been made in mnimizing repetitive stress injury and maximizing output of employees.


Brain Corp is leading the way and will soon be cleaning the floors in walmarts. SoftBank of japan working with Brin Corp has come up with their Whiz to vacuum commercial spaces. AvidBots is German company that is working on releasing a whole range of floor scrubbing and cleaning equipment. A&K Robotics hailing from Vancouver does retrofits of existing machines with an eye towards complete automation. TaskiIntellibot hailing from Portland Oregon now acquired by Diversey has been around since 1985 and claims to be an industry leader.

Walmart has also been pushing for completely automated self check-out. Merely with staff there to minimize pilferage and other issues maximizing productivity. In some areas of high theft rates self-checkout is removed completely.


Fastfood really started with the automat, the coin operated eatery in Philadelphia in 1902 by Horn & Hardart who eventually purchased Burger King, Arby's, Bojangles. The last Automat was shuttered in New York City in 1991. McDonalds was the next success story and pretty much everyone copied them. The book behind the arches details the story and rise of the franchise and the many innovations they made to fast food over the decades.

It was said in the 80s and 90s fast food tried to look at completely automating their entire process line. Right now the bulk of automation is in the order kiosks that are not used due to hygenic concerns at mcdonalds. The tech is almost there to start taking over fast food by veritible storm but it will be a few years before the robotic costs come down.
Japanese vending machines, will we see them here?


The other thing is a thing specific to Japan. Vending machine stores. Only possible because of super low crime rates thanks to a culture that does not have crime as a piece of it really. Automated food vendors are only really possible there and in China due to the cultural importance placed on cleanliness first. Stateside and in Europe I do not see the concept of unmanned fully automated stores due to issues with pilferage. I do see a niche in highly secured environments as the intrinsic interest is a thing and it is growing.


BratWurst Bot by FZI in Germany took orders, cooked and served meals using tablets to take and communicate order status with no issues in 2016. Momenttum Machines of Silicone Valley has a fully automated restaurant system capable of making 400 burgers per hour. MIT students made and installed a robotic Spyce Kitchen that makes and serves food on MIT campus completely autonomously sans the need to restock periodically and occupies less than 20 square feet. Moley Robotics has two full robotic arms and replicates the actions of master chefs. Zume Pizza of silicone valley uses automated machines to assist workers in making pizzas. That elusive tossed dough is not quite something they automated yet. Moley robotics cost for its robotic kitchen chef was around 75k as of 2016 and they are hoping to get it to around 15k by 2017. The driving factor for automation is the 15/hour wage.
Next lets look at retail and other things that can be automated there.


The main key to retail is the Just in Time Supply chain. Although driverless cars and semis are not quite there yet as the AI still has issues grappling with poorly marked roads and pot holes and collision avoidance of the occasional bung hole driver. Next is the warehouse supply and picking aspect. That has been developing since the 80s. I remember my father talking about a job he did in the 80s to run electrical wire in a ware house in the concrete so stock picking robots had reference points to pick stock automatically with no human interaction. This has gotten even more automated thanks to efforts by amazon to increase productivity and lower worker fatigue.
Lowebot being tested in San Jose and San Francisco is a mobile automated self help kiosk to help customers locate items. Target in 2016 used a robot called Tally by Simbe Robotics to verify inventory levels in the store. A vital painful task, compeltely automated. Softbank Mobile stores in Japan are using a robot called Pepper to chat, give direction, and answer questions and can do cool things such as play music, light up, dance and take selfies due to its humanoid form factor. Best Buy is testing a robot called Chloe by PaR Systems that picks product from a vertical arrangement (adding 1k sq feet of floor space,) and uses a touch screen to interact with customers and functions behind a clear partition where storage racks are. Dominos in Australia is using a robotic unit, DRU as a ground based unit and they are looking at drone based options as well for deliveries using years of accumulated driver GPS tracks and much of things are pending regulatory approval but the process is underway as they try to stay ahead of the curve.


Now so we automate the menial jobs. This frees up space for higher paying analyst and repair type jobs. But how do we lower operator fatigue? Exosuits? Exoskeletons? The movie Aliens was very much prophetic with James Cameron vision as the control arm setup seen on the vest mounted smartgun has been replicated in the military and off shoots of it are rolling over into manufacturing with antifatigue suits that transfer the fatigue loads. The military has been testing battlefield exosuits that increase carrying capacity by 250 pounds and eliminating a majority of operator fatigue only with the need to have a new battery pack used every few hours of use. And now it is even giving the disabled access to greater options of mobility by allowing the paralyzed people to have more options for mobility by being able to walk in some cases.


What about healthcare and nursing homes? We already have the DaVinci robots that are in use in surgery suites across the world that allow for precise surgeries that decrease time in the operating theater and dramatically lower recovery times as the incisions can be much smaller and damage required to make the repair ever lessenond. Even now with a full pandemic Zoom and other tele conferencing is proving absolutely useful and vital to diagnose and treat patients remotely from the safety of their home. It is also enabling much more accurate diagnosis and treatment with mental health cases as remote psychiatric medicine has been in use for quite some time now as the insane asylum system has more or less been dismantled world wide. Geriatric and nursing home care is starting to pilot the use of robots on a very small scale. There are hopes that robotic caregivers for the elderly grows as the need is so great and the ability to field caregivers, so difficult. There are even solutions being persued to supplement nurses with robot caregivers to help fill the critical need and chronic deficiency of nurses. Will we ever replace clinical staff? No, there are too many aspects that will take decades to program into adaptive AI structures. From what I have found doctors will be aided by AI, not replaced as diagnosis suggestions and treatments are displayed based upon the patient, but robots are not currently capable of the full range of motions, thinking, and feeling (tactile and emotional) that are required to complete the full healing process for children and adults.

View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=10156371765849705
(1m1s)
View: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=417821148817218
(3m45s)

Now comic books are giving us great ideas and were honestly paragons paving the way for technology to follow in the coming decades. From a real life Dr. Octopus suit to a fully functional iron man repulsor with arc reactor. To Dick Tracy inspiring the Apple watch. Elon Musk creating space ships that look eerily similar to iconic 40s and 50s space movie rocket ships that will soon take mars and the moon by storm.

Dabbling in prototyping and animatronic costume builds myself it is becoming insanely easy to build your own robot. Servos are both decreasing in size, cost, and increasing in power with less voltage needs. We are at a real cross roads in history where science fiction is becoming science fact.

From all the linked articles and what I have concluded it does appear that we are just a few years away from fully automated stores and restaurants. But the costs and maintenance will spring entire new sectors of support industries so I would not say that the jobs are disappearing. The unfilled jobs will disappear and the existing workers would end up transitioning to the next phase.
 

Double_A

TB Fanatic
After the destruction of national economies around the world we're going to need all those jobs to employ those who are out of work. Just-In-Time supply doesn't work in a world-wide pandemic environment.
 

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
The problem is the NET. The net, the net, always the net. Net gain, or net loss?

Not everyone can be a robot mechanic. Even if they all had the aptitude, there are only so many positions.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
After the destruction of national economies around the world we're going to need all those jobs to employ those who are out of work. Just-In-Time supply doesn't work in a world-wide pandemic environment.

Delivery does not work as well. but if JIT goes away. Storage needs will go through the roof as companies keep x number of days/weeks/months of stock on hand. But to support larger storage needs, real-estate and retail will have to completely change. But with storage comes liabilities and taxes and those have to change as well. Private security I see but I am more concerned about automated robotic security mechanisms longer term that don't care about who is there if the system is not disarmed.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The problem is the NET. The net, the net, always the net. Net gain, or net loss?

Not everyone can be a robot mechanic. Even if they all had the aptitude, there are only so many positions.

I think part of what we are going to see is that this change will get phased in but once it starts things will go quick.

Once the mechanics and such are sorted it is a simple matter of wires, servos, and screws and software upgrades to sort out quirks.

As to your point it just occurred to me. What if this is what agenda 21 is really about. Lowering population levels to make this possible? Scary thought.
 

Broken Arrow

Heathen Pagan Witch
I worked for 8 years at Home Depot as a bookkeeper. They follow what Walmart does and lags behind them by 9-12 months.
I've known for a while that they are moving to a cashless buying experience. They have been and will continue to push the buy online pick up in store (bopis) or home delivery business model. My job was also on the line due to the fact that they will be installing "cash recycler" machines in their vaults, thus doing away with manually building deposits, creating tills, counting tills, finding and fixing problems or researching cashier theft. and dealing with bank change orders. These machines will fill a cash tray at the touch of a button with each cashier having their own log in pin number. At the end of the shift, all cash gets put back into the recycler, which generates the deposit for a manager to bag and leave for Brinks or other armored carrier. Ive seen these recyclers already in use in Sams club, and I suspect they are being used in Walmart. Home Depot did have test stores for these also.

I resigned before I got phased out.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Somebody has the fix the mechanical parts of the tools.


My son just completed a advance electrical mechanical course and this is what he is trained to do and thats fix robotic systems, trouble shoot and repair mechanical electrical and computer and programing.
 

Baja SS

Froze Member
I design, build, maintain and service machines used in food - production, storage and service. I can say for certain that the machines in the works right now will eliminate at least 50% of the jobs in restaurants, grocery stores and convenience stores.

Now if they have a robot that is an electro-mechanical engineer, certified refrigeration, certified electrician, certified welder and certified plumber. I'll start worrying about my business. But I think I may be safe til retirement.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I design, build, maintain and service machines used in food - production, storage and service. I can say for certain that the machines in the works right now will eliminate at least 50% of the jobs in restaurants, grocery stores and convenience stores.

Now if they have a robot that is an electro-mechanical engineer, certified refrigeration, certified electrician, certified welder and certified plumber. I'll start worrying about my business. But I think I may be safe til retirement.

I figure at first simple portions of the trades will get assistance. It will be a couple of decades before I think the AI and robotics will reach a maturity level to further automate the trades. I figure that what will end up handing is workers will have a series of assistant robots that are coordinated by the person.
 

Donald Shimoda

In Absentia
Somebody has the fix the mechanical parts of the tools.


Check out all of the sequences set in the 2144 AD in "Cloud Atlas." As the revolution will not be allowed to occur - or even televised, for that matter - we'll just see some meat puppets engineered to fix things for the small population of elites as the majority of humanity has been wiped out.

Make no mistake - that is the end game. A massive reduction in the human population.

Useless eaters need not exist...
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
The Roman Empire was on its way to what we would consider 'modern.' They had metal reinforced multistory concrete buildings. Elevators. Sliding glass doors. Sanitized hot and cold running water. A mechanical analog computer (antikythera mechanism) to help with ship navigation. They were working towards metal hulled steam powered ships. Steam powered chariots even.

But they never got over the hump. They had problems with money and ... focus (Nero, Caligula etc). The Empire fell apart and technology did too.

Think where we might be with a thousand year head start if that hadn't happened....
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
The other thing is that the jobs that will be eliminated (and the article is correct this was being talked about in food service by the late 1970s) will the some of the last jobs unskilled people (younger or older) can get with little or no experience when they start out.

For many people (myself included) Food Service jobs were a good way to hire, get a paycheck and learn the "rules" of "job life."

And it isn't true that food service is totally "unskilled" labor, there are things that must be learned and that will transfer on to other work.

Also gone, in both foodservice and "grocery" stores will be that great career track for the really motivated young person whose start in life hasn't always been the best.

Kids who are not stupid but say barely made it out of high school and have no interest in college (or no reason to go)used to be able to start in the grocery store while still in high school and often be a local manager in their 20s and a district manager by the 30s.

The elimination of almost all "entry" level jobs that really are entry (and don't require a four-year college degree and debt slavery) will result in even more massive welfare than exists now.

People don't just "go away and die" because they are not "useless to requirement" when it comes to paying jobs.

A lot of people who are just now becoming unemployed on massive scales are learning that right now, and businesses will have to "adapt" to a lot of people living on very low (often subsidized) incomes; governments will have to realize they can figure out a way to feed and house people, or the riots will get a heck of a lot worse.

Yep, Rome even had plans recently translated that showed plans for an internal combustion engine! This was found by a family friend who was translating military archives and it was never built that we know of, but the plans would have worked...
 

Redleg

Veteran Member
What can't software coding and debugging not be automated?
Same reason robots can't fix/make themselves. You need human interaction. A.I. is not to the point of someone telling the computer to make a program do this. At least not yet.
 

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
People don't just "go away and die" because they are not "useless to requirement" when it comes to paying jobs.

The biggest mistake the elites are making. The people will not starve quietly. They will starve noisily, angrily, and destructively.

If any of them find out where an elite nest is, the elite will be FOOD. And quite possibly prepared in a thoroughly sadistic fashion.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
And when you have that many available boots and "activist" ideology together in the same room, it usually doesn't end well....
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Idk about you, but I'd much rather have a robot touching my food than about 90% of the human grunge who touches it now.
Partly why I say once it starts, sticks, and catches on things will change quickly. The first joint to go fully autonomous sans a maintenance person, has perfect records week, after, week, will drive the rest to match things. Just hope that the process and design is not patented otherwise things can get really nasty.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
People don't just "go away and die" because they are not "useless to requirement" when it comes to paying jobs.

The 'plan' also includes eliminating the useless and presumably jobless....
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Moley Robotics is slated to release a consumer product this year:
 

fish hook

Deceased
I was in Wal-Mart yesterday and saw my first robot floor cleaning machine.That one machine has eliminated several employees.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I was in Wal-Mart yesterday and saw my first robot floor cleaning machine.That one machine has eliminated several employees.

Longer term the menial jobs will get automated. The higher level thinking jobs will still be done by humans. Human intuition is not something easily replicated with programming.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Would be for Wal-Mart.Everything is now controlled by a very few in Bentonville and computers.

Pilferage is the only concern then. Problem there is if security gets automated there will be no filter on bias. Remove too many humans from the loop and lack of human intelligence will create a situation where untrackable hijacks could occur.

Cultural differences versus what we see in China or Japan and elsewhere really determine how fully automated things can go initially and how long and what kind of additional intelligence and safeguards will be required to make things work elsewhere.
 

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
From what I've seen so far, the robots keep breaking down, and there isn't anyone immediately on hand to fix them.

Case in point: the local Walmart got one to do inventory. That lasted about 3 weeks before it broke down. This was several months ago. It's still taking up space in the break room (per a friend) waiting for corporate to send a repair person.
 

MinnesotaSmith

Membership Revoked
ah ok, is that what we're going to call this economic disaster, "the hump"?

do the Humpty bump
Yeah. The Hump. It will last over 20 years and comprise uncountable numbers of bodies and leveled, smoking ruins. Automation of jobs is going to be huge, sure. But, the continuing flood of Third Worlders to take jobs by the millions at all levels, Fedgov destroying the currency and damaging business operations will all screw us as badly too. Top of the list has to be demographics; governments can be overthrown, but there's no recovery from sufficiently advanced heritage population replacement.
 
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China Connection

TB Fanatic
Ah, no government robot will talk over spending my government pension. Nor, is any government robot likely to fuel its self by consuming fly maggots.

But government robots might be programmed to kill old people on pensions. However when we die they will rust up and die also.

The Elite will also die but very, very slowly when they finally work out that they are not in charge after all.

Life is strange and very, very complex not simple like the minds of the Elite.
 

Ravekid

Veteran Member
$15/hour is going to change everything. Whatever can be automated will be and people will either accept it or avoid it. An example is most of the McDonalds in my area have installed the self-order kiosk. I actually know of one Wendy's that installed one. This is going to become the way to order at fast food. Those who are good with electronic gadgets will do OK, but I can see a lot of senior citizens who struggle with these devices just staying away.

Wait service restaurants will be far and few between. Those that remain will have to raise prices to make up for the significant hike in wages. With the pandemic and $15/hour minimum wage, I'm predicting a massive shift back to people eating at home more. Even active families with kids in sports and such will turn to crackers, protein bars, etc. as a meal while out and about. Eating out could become so costly it goes back to being just a one or two times a week thing for people.

Other industries will become affected such as the higher level, minimal skill set jobs in our area that pay upper teens to low $20/hour will have to raise their wages to still attract the better quality employee. Might not be an issue if enough fast food places close their doors, but if not, they will have to jack wages to complete. I could see Amazon looking to test an almost 100% automated shipping warehouse. The only humans there will be the maintenance technicians who will also double as security lookouts for people trying to break into the warehouse.
 
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Redleg

Veteran Member
Somebody has the fix the mechanical parts of the tools.
And not to mention electronic motor controllers. When silicon is controlling high power motors, they will fail as well. And the power source limits how long it can run between charge. Technology is not there with battery pack storage/recharge time.
 

PghPanther

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Automate those jobs requiring no higher than an 85 IQ and then sterilize any human below that IQ............

No more worries about cheap labor and/or the need to have immigration to fill the jobs that "robots here won't do"
 

Troke

On TB every waking moment
$15/hour is going to change everything. Whatever can be automated will be and people will either accept it or avoid it. An example is most of the McDonalds in my area have installed the self-order kiosk. I actually know of one Wendy's that installed one. This is going to become the way to order at fast food. Those who are good with electronic gadgets will do OK, but I can see a lot of senior citizens who struggle with these devices just staying away.

Wait service restaurants will be far and few between. Those that remain will have to raise prices to make up for the significant hike in wages. With the pandemic and $15/hour minimum wage, I'm predicting a massive shift back to people eating at home more. Even active families with kids in sports and such will turn to crackers, protein bars, etc. as a meal while out and about. Eating out could become so costly it goes back to being just a one or two times a week thing for people.

Other industries will become affected such as the higher level, minimal skill set jobs in our area that pay upper teens to low $20/hour will have to raise their wages to still attract the better quality employee. Might not be an issue if enough fast food places close their doors, but if not, they will have to jack wages to complete. I could see Amazon looking to test an almost 100% automated shipping warehouse. The only humans there will be the maintenance technicians who will also double as security lookouts for people trying to break into the warehouse.
"....I could see Amazon looking to test an almost 100% automated shipping warehouse ..."

My SIL who builds such things has a contract to build a 4, 000,000 sq ft warehouse fully automated, I think for Amazon..
 

Troke

On TB every waking moment
The problem is going to be capabilities. Didn't take much to sweep the floor. But to maintain the floorsweeper robot? Whole different set and they seem to be getting rare. I keep running across stories that the IQ of military recruits keeps going down.

If that is a sign of things to come, we got a problem.
 
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