Hummm......
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NOVEMBER 16, 2023
COMMENTARY
“We kiss the foreheads and the arms of the shrewd and astute planners and the courageous Palestinian youth.” On Oct. 10, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed his unambivalent support for Hamas’ attack against Israel. Yet he swiftly repudiated any Iranian involvement, claiming, “Those who attribute the acts of the Palestinians to outsiders fail to understand the Palestinian people. They have underestimated them.” Khamenei’s remarks perfectly encapsulate Iran’s stance on the war in Gaza over the past month: championing Palestinian “resistance” against Israel while concurrently underscoring the autonomy of Hamas and other “resistance movements.” Indeed, both U.S. and Israeli authorities have, so far, found no concrete evidence linking Iran directly to the attack. Yet Iran’s extensive military, economic, and political backing for Hamas is widely acknowledged.
At the same time, Khamenei and other Iranian officials have been warning both Israel and its allies that their actions in Gaza could trigger escalation. Against this backdrop, there have already been increased hostilities between Israel and Hizballah along the Lebanese border, as well as rocket strikes against the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syrian territories. Meanwhile, Iranian-supported militias in Iraq have escalated their operations against U.S. assets. In less than a month, between Oct. 17 and Nov. 13, there have been 52 recorded incidents targeting U.S. entities in both countries. Finally, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen have also proclaimed their participation in the conflict, launching missile and drone attacks targeting southern Israel.
Understanding the risk of escalation across the axis of resistance requires understanding its internal dynamics. There is growing reason to believe that the axis has transformed into a cohesive alliance network, balancing autonomous actions with strategic coordination to strengthen the members’ collective stance. Its members have established a flexible command network that allows for dynamic role allocation. Now, they are trying to use this network to preserve Hamas’ military capabilities while avoiding a direct confrontation with the United States. It remains an open question, however, whether even a cohesive and well-synchronized axis can manage this difficult feat.
Unification of the Arenas: From Idea to Reality
Traditionally, Iranian leadership has highlighted the importance of cohesion and unity within the axis. A notable example was Khamenei’s call, in a June 2023 meeting with senior Hamas representatives, for “greater unity and coordination among resistance groups.” He underscored Gaza’s centrality in the resistance but simultaneously accentuated the need for fortifying the West Bank front. Media channels and websites affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also began to delineate the possibility of a “multi-front war” against Israel. Both Gaza and the West Bank would be primary theaters of conflict, but with the added support of other Iranian-backed factions in the region.
Roughly a month prior to the Hamas-initiated assault, on Sept. 10, Maj. Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan, the deputy chief of operations of the Revolutionary Guard, discussed the existence of an “integrated command and control network in the resistance front.” While this network’s existence wasn’t characterized as a recent development, it marked the first instance where an Iranian military official of such stature openly called for going further toward what has been termed “the unification of the arenas.”
Within the strategic discourse of the Islamic Republic and its allies, this strategy refers to a campaign of preparatory and synchronized undertakings to combat Israel by highlighting Iran’s multi-front response capacity. It focuses on enhancing operational coordination among the non-state militant groups within the axis of resistance and expanding the battleground to encircle Israel. It is intended to counter Israel’s “Campaign Between the Wars” and is influenced by the 2021 Saif al-Quds war. The campaign envisions four primary fronts: the Gaza Strip (southern front), the West Bank (central front near major Israeli cities), southern Lebanon (northern front), anchored by Lebanese Hizballah, and the Golan Heights (eastern and northeastern front), also managed by Hizballah.
From the vantage point of Iranian military experts and security analysts, the latest Gaza conflict offered a test for the unification of the arenas blueprint. Crucial to this effort is the “joint operations room” of the axis, which was created after the death of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani. While alive, Soleimani exerted overarching control over the axis within a clear hierarchical setup. His demise initially led to a decentralization within the axis. But to ensure continued coordination, the Quds Force, in collaboration with Hizballah, gradually established a joint operations room. Subsequent events highlighted Hizballah’s enhanced function in recruiting, training, and commanding Iranian-backed militias in Syria, as well as Nasrallah’s prominent part in mediating among various Shia factions within Iraq. This reinforced his central position in directing the operations of the axis of resistance factions. Some even posit that Nasrallah’s influence might now overshadow that of Maj. Gen. Esmail Qaani, who presently heads the Quds Force.
This joint operations room consists of three operational echelons. The Palestinian territories, where Iranian-backed Palestinian factions, particularly Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, operate, form the foundational tier. These factions showcased their coordination through a military drill in January 2021 called Rukn al-Shadid. Hizballah constitutes the second tier, responsible for liaising with the Palestinian factions, alongside its broader task of co-managing the whole structure. The third tier incorporates Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Continued.....
Posted for fair use.....
How Iran and Its Allies Hope to Save Hamas - War on the Rocks
“We kiss the foreheads and the arms of the shrewd and astute planners and the courageous Palestinian youth.” On Oct. 10, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah
warontherocks.com
HOW IRAN AND ITS ALLIES HOPE TO SAVE HAMAS
HAMIDREZA AZIZINOVEMBER 16, 2023
COMMENTARY
“We kiss the foreheads and the arms of the shrewd and astute planners and the courageous Palestinian youth.” On Oct. 10, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed his unambivalent support for Hamas’ attack against Israel. Yet he swiftly repudiated any Iranian involvement, claiming, “Those who attribute the acts of the Palestinians to outsiders fail to understand the Palestinian people. They have underestimated them.” Khamenei’s remarks perfectly encapsulate Iran’s stance on the war in Gaza over the past month: championing Palestinian “resistance” against Israel while concurrently underscoring the autonomy of Hamas and other “resistance movements.” Indeed, both U.S. and Israeli authorities have, so far, found no concrete evidence linking Iran directly to the attack. Yet Iran’s extensive military, economic, and political backing for Hamas is widely acknowledged.
At the same time, Khamenei and other Iranian officials have been warning both Israel and its allies that their actions in Gaza could trigger escalation. Against this backdrop, there have already been increased hostilities between Israel and Hizballah along the Lebanese border, as well as rocket strikes against the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syrian territories. Meanwhile, Iranian-supported militias in Iraq have escalated their operations against U.S. assets. In less than a month, between Oct. 17 and Nov. 13, there have been 52 recorded incidents targeting U.S. entities in both countries. Finally, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen have also proclaimed their participation in the conflict, launching missile and drone attacks targeting southern Israel.
Understanding the risk of escalation across the axis of resistance requires understanding its internal dynamics. There is growing reason to believe that the axis has transformed into a cohesive alliance network, balancing autonomous actions with strategic coordination to strengthen the members’ collective stance. Its members have established a flexible command network that allows for dynamic role allocation. Now, they are trying to use this network to preserve Hamas’ military capabilities while avoiding a direct confrontation with the United States. It remains an open question, however, whether even a cohesive and well-synchronized axis can manage this difficult feat.
Unification of the Arenas: From Idea to Reality
Traditionally, Iranian leadership has highlighted the importance of cohesion and unity within the axis. A notable example was Khamenei’s call, in a June 2023 meeting with senior Hamas representatives, for “greater unity and coordination among resistance groups.” He underscored Gaza’s centrality in the resistance but simultaneously accentuated the need for fortifying the West Bank front. Media channels and websites affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also began to delineate the possibility of a “multi-front war” against Israel. Both Gaza and the West Bank would be primary theaters of conflict, but with the added support of other Iranian-backed factions in the region.
Roughly a month prior to the Hamas-initiated assault, on Sept. 10, Maj. Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan, the deputy chief of operations of the Revolutionary Guard, discussed the existence of an “integrated command and control network in the resistance front.” While this network’s existence wasn’t characterized as a recent development, it marked the first instance where an Iranian military official of such stature openly called for going further toward what has been termed “the unification of the arenas.”
Within the strategic discourse of the Islamic Republic and its allies, this strategy refers to a campaign of preparatory and synchronized undertakings to combat Israel by highlighting Iran’s multi-front response capacity. It focuses on enhancing operational coordination among the non-state militant groups within the axis of resistance and expanding the battleground to encircle Israel. It is intended to counter Israel’s “Campaign Between the Wars” and is influenced by the 2021 Saif al-Quds war. The campaign envisions four primary fronts: the Gaza Strip (southern front), the West Bank (central front near major Israeli cities), southern Lebanon (northern front), anchored by Lebanese Hizballah, and the Golan Heights (eastern and northeastern front), also managed by Hizballah.
From the vantage point of Iranian military experts and security analysts, the latest Gaza conflict offered a test for the unification of the arenas blueprint. Crucial to this effort is the “joint operations room” of the axis, which was created after the death of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani. While alive, Soleimani exerted overarching control over the axis within a clear hierarchical setup. His demise initially led to a decentralization within the axis. But to ensure continued coordination, the Quds Force, in collaboration with Hizballah, gradually established a joint operations room. Subsequent events highlighted Hizballah’s enhanced function in recruiting, training, and commanding Iranian-backed militias in Syria, as well as Nasrallah’s prominent part in mediating among various Shia factions within Iraq. This reinforced his central position in directing the operations of the axis of resistance factions. Some even posit that Nasrallah’s influence might now overshadow that of Maj. Gen. Esmail Qaani, who presently heads the Quds Force.
This joint operations room consists of three operational echelons. The Palestinian territories, where Iranian-backed Palestinian factions, particularly Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, operate, form the foundational tier. These factions showcased their coordination through a military drill in January 2021 called Rukn al-Shadid. Hizballah constitutes the second tier, responsible for liaising with the Palestinian factions, alongside its broader task of co-managing the whole structure. The third tier incorporates Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Continued.....
