OT/MISC Is Trump (or his advisor) using The Fourth Turning Books?

Melodi

Disaster Cat
I've been re-reading the Fourth Turning all week and by last night was actually asking out loud- I wonder if either Trump or one of his advisors has read or is fond of this book; perhaps even using it intentionally?

Well, I just finished reading a very long-long-long article in Time Magazine which is about Steve Bannon; Trumps chief of staff and while most of the article is interesting but somewhat slanted, it was the paragraphs below that caught my eye

Still, my hunch was obviously correct; though I think Mr. Trump calls the shots, I think a lot of the background and symbolic "he is the Grey Prophet stuff, just maybe not the one you were expecting.." probably is from Bannon.



snipped from long article
http://time.com/4657665/steve-bannon-donald-trump/

Sometime in the early 2000s, Bannon was captivated by a book called The Fourth Turning by generational theorists William Strauss and Neil Howe. The book argues that American history can be described in a four-phase cycle, repeated again and again, in which successive generations have fallen into crisis, embraced institutions, rebelled against those institutions and forgotten the lessons of the past--which invites the next crisis. These cycles of roughly 80 years each took us from the revolution to the Civil War, and then to World War II, which Bannon might point out was taking shape 80 years ago. During the fourth turning of the phase, institutions are destroyed and rebuilt.

In an interview with TIME, author Howe recalled that Bannon contacted him more than a decade ago about making a film based on the book. That eventually led to Generation Zero, released in 2010, in which Bannon cast the 2008 financial crisis as a sign that the turning was upon us. Howe agrees with the analysis, in part. In each cycle, the postcrisis generation, in this case the baby boomers, eventually rises to "become the senior leaders who have no memory of the last crisis, and they are always the ones who push us into the next one," Howe said.

But Bannon, who once called himself the "patron saint of commoners," seemed to relish the opportunity to clean out the old order and build a new one in its place, casting the political events of the nation as moments of extreme historical urgency, pivot points for the world. Historian David Kaiser played a featured role in Generation Zero, and he recalls his filmed interview with Bannon as an engrossing and enjoyable experience.

And yet, he told TIME, he was taken aback when Bannon began to argue that the current phase of history foreshadowed a massive new war. "I remember him saying, 'Well, look, you have the American revolution, and then you have the Civil War, which was bigger than the revolution. And you have the Second World War, which was bigger than the Civil War,'" Kaiser said. "He even wanted me to say that on camera, and I was not willing."

Howe, too, was struck by what he calls Bannon's "rather severe outlook on what our nation is going through." Bannon noted repeatedly on his radio show that "we're at war" with radical jihadis in places around the world. This is "a global existential war" that likely will become "a major shooting war in the Middle East again." War with China may also be looming, he has said. This conviction is central to the Breitbart mission, he explained in November 2015: "Our big belief, one of our central organizing principles at the site, is that we're at war."
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
For those interested...and I highly recommend this book and even more so now...
https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turni.../ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
51D8AP9FVJL.jpg
 

Sacajawea

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Hmmm. I think I would advise anyone in Gov using this as a "playbook" that self-fulfilling prophecies can be created sub-consciously.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
It would not surprise me in the least. But long before Trump was a candidate I got the sense that the elites were manipulating events to have the crisis work their way. Strauss and Howe's book actually seemed to have more of an impact on more libertarian readers, who wanted the crisis to resolve in a different direction.

The problem for the globalists is that they have had to pay their little groups to protest and quite frankly, they may being playing into Trump's hands. They had hoped to goad conservatives into taking up violent resistance, but we didn't do it. They had hoped to impose a form of totalitarian regime, but we didn't provide the reason to.

What worries me about events like the UCBerkeley riots of last night is that we may get the crackdown that we had hoped to avoid.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Hmmm. I think I would advise anyone in Gov using this as a "playbook" that self-fulfilling prophecies can be created sub-consciously.
This is part of my concern - though I advise reading the book because even the authors don't say the usual "outcome" (in this case often total war) is absolutely written in stone; what they suggest is that at least in the Anglo-American tradition (going back to the 14th hundreds) the same patterns seem to repeat every four generations (except for a skip after the US civil war - showing history is never totally predictable).

Bannon, seems to support some of the more drastic potential "outcomes" suggested as possible templates (not solid predictions) of things a Fourth Turning in the US might experience this time around and they said it over 20 years ago.

Some of what is happening now probably is simply the result of observation - a potential for States to either try or actually leave the Union is probably not under Bannon's control though he will recognize it in the Calrexit moves (even if they go nowhere, they did pop up).

The other thing that Bannon knows from studying the books is that when these Fourth Turning "Crises" happen; the changes can come at remarkable speed, he gives examples from the Revolutionary and US Civil Wars; as well as 1929 on how the changes (or march to war) almost blindsided the average person.

As late as 1859 most people realized there was something wrong and a potential for problems; but they had absolutely no idea a horrific war was about to take over nearly every aspect of their lives.

But the US Civil War example was actually one of the "worst" outcomes (the book explains why) and happened way earlier and with much greater violence than most of the previous and even later fourth turnings.

However, the main thing is this book can either be used as an interesting peak into the potential cycles of history (and getting modern people to start viewing some time in cycles again instead of the "straight line of progress" I got in school in the 1970's) or you could look at is as a road map.

Both points of view are encouraged by the authors but as road maps they were mostly talking about the types of things individuals can doing during sorts of turnings and what to look for; reading the book there were times I felt like I could cut and past photos of things Trump and his advisors were doing and put book captions under them.

Some of them are very subtle, like a remark early on that "Fourth Turning/Crises" periods are often a time when fashion goes classical and elegant - I had a flash of President Trump and his wife in that nearly classical Greek gown at the ball (it nearly was a Greek gown without that weird, fashion thingy in the front).

Now that's not a bad thing, but it suggested to me when I saw quite a number of "snap shots" like this; that Trump (or someone advising him) knew exactly what they were doing...
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
For those of us who read the Fourth Turning, the two pressing questions became: When? and who will become the Grey Prophet?

Personally, I do not think Trump qualifies as the Grey Prophet as described in the book. I had pictured [and hoped] a Ron Paul would emerge.

But the Fourth Turning isn't quite here yet; we are like in the just before the Civil War stage.

The USA is probably a few months away from entering the Greatest Depression, and sadly I now think a Bernie Sanders will be welcomed as the Grey Prophet by the mass of Americans. A Grey Prophet doesn't have to be correct, just accepted and followed.

FA
 

kochevnik

Senior Member
I posted this weeks ago - Bannon actually was part of a documentary on the 4T - He knows it very well.

Trump is ABSOLUTELY the Grey Prophet, he is perfect characterization of what S&H were writing.

Keep in mind that the 4T also said that whatever party comes into power before the Crisis KEEPS that power all thru what is coming.

Think FDR in 1932 and staying Prez till he dies.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Bernie fits the role better than Trump; I should have clarified - I'm not sure that Trump is the (or a - there may be more than one human personage) IS the Grey Prophet - but I've been getting the feeling that Trump wants to give the impression of either being the Grey Prophet or taking on aspects of him (as well as leaders from other turnings).

It feels in some ways like someone is projecting "Trump is not the Grey Prophet you expected, but here I am babe..." that doesn't me his that figure or one of them..

As for what period we are in, that's been debated - personally I think that if this theory is valid as more than an over-all guide to some Western cycles than this "turning" got off to a wonky start and in the opposite fashion of the US Civil War (which it may be the mirror of) instead of being a very short/truncated turning this one is going to be longer - perhaps even longer than the longest 25 year one.

I think that is because 9/11 caused the sudden "mood change" from total "unraveling" (third turning) to events and public opinion starting to lurch and halt towards the more "normal" time for the start of the Fourth Turning which the book predicted "around" 2005; with the big crises and later resolution around anywhere from now to more likely the early 2020's...my hunch is it might go a bit longer than that.

But I could be totally wrong, since the nature of the ultimate crises (not the one that sets things off) tends to be fast and furious...
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
I posted this weeks ago - Bannon actually was part of a documentary on the 4T - He knows it very well.

Trump is ABSOLUTELY the Grey Prophet, he is perfect characterization of what S&H were writing.

Keep in mind that the 4T also said that whatever party comes into power before the Crisis KEEPS that power all thru what is coming.

Think FDR in 1932 and staying Prez till he dies.

HI thanks for posting, I missed your first post I'm sorry - probably because my mind wasn't on that topic yet; after reading the book it was like a siren going off in my brain...again I'm not sure if Trump IS THE Grey Prophet but he is doing his best to appear to fit that role (or he's being set up to do so).
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
It is all quite fascinating to contemplate.

I don't profess to know what will happen though I have read the book several times. I do believe the future will not be boring however.
 

kochevnik

Senior Member
Well among other things the Grey Prophet is a Boomer,and Bernie is a Silent- but even beyond that, Bernie has now faded into history,
no one is listening to him, he's quit the Democratic party officially as soon as he lost the convention.

The GP is a Boomer who pretty much comes out of nowhere to lead a major change in the political and social mood of the country.

Clearly, that is Trump in a nutshell.

And IMO, unless they kill Trump, 2021 has the best probability of being the true beginning of the Crisis, simply because : 1861 and 1941.

YMMV of course.

For many years I worked off 2017 as being the beginning and if Hitlery had gotten in I have little doubt we would be readying for
war with Russia this year.

Trump is a reprieve IMO.
 

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
We ARE in a global war with jihaters although the public is still asleep to it. The jihaters are fully aware and busy planning and implementing. I hope President Trump starts giving fireside history lessons and forces ppl to look at historical facts.

With all the technology we now have, the stupid "forgetting" can be easily cured. Better to get smart and not let history repeat.

I feel Trump knows this is the last chance to fight off Jihater Takeover and save western civilization.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Interesting take on this Kochevnik -I do think the books miss one important detail; they mention it but it doesn't go very far; that is that in all generations you have people that don't march to the beat of their generation.

So yes Bernie is a Silent and I totally agree that at this point he's history; but his "personal" personality (at least in old age) is much more prophet boomer (from the left) that Silent Artist just trying to make it all hang together and not make noise.

I had Silent Parents (both of them) and it is interesting that at one point we had a household of three generations (our youngest housemate could have been my son) but we all had the same generation of parents and that caused us to have some (not all) similar core view points and may have been part of my my unusual marriage to a Gen-X (13r) works so well.

My theory is that just like certain events only have a dramatic (or time changing) effect on the over-all culture when they occur in certain time periods; people with cross-wise personalities to the "turning" tend to usually not be as effective in bringing about change (or leadership or whatever) but that doesn't mean they have no effect.

Your takes on the Fourth Turning timing are very interesting because I was just trying to sort the "so where are we" last night in my head; you may be correct, it is hard to tell at this point.
 

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
TB2K was introduced to The Fourth Turning by its founder, Ed Yourdon, in 1998. I am astonished, delighted and relieved that we here have become the crux of the new seat of power in the USA and share aspects of the truth with brietbart, infowars, zerohedge, and several other "alt" sites of knowledge and discussion that were right on the whole time, willing to ponder and investigate and see what was actually happening. I'm sure Ed has seen to his surprise that one of his best lasting legacies is TB2K.

Praying President Trump and all his administration is able to hold on to the Truth and do the right things and not be corrupted.
 

Sacajawea

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Jane, I'm worrying about the same thing. Yet I really yearn for some law & order; some enforcement of the laws about disturbing the peace, interfering with people going about their business, and the intimidating threat of these protests going violent. So far, it seems to be handled well. But I do feel there's going to be a line drawn, that's going to say there's a difference between free speech -- and being disruptive to normal life. How that happens, is what I'm watching for.
 

kochevnik

Senior Member
What has been most fascinating to me about this board is that in the early 2000's with Bush in power this board was FANATICALLY pro-war
and pro-Bush - you would have gotten lynched for 50% of the threads I see on the board today.

I remember reading that 98% of white male repubs were FOR the Iraq War - and now we a red white and blue Repub Prez who says the
whole thing was a giant mistake and that non-interventionism (Ron Paul) style is the order of the day.

And America First !

In many ways I feel bad for Trump - I know at some point he will HAVE to meet violence of the Leftie Fascists with violence from the State
and there is no way that does not get completely out of hand.

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.

As soon as I read the 4T in 1997 when it came out I knew it was the Truth.
Been completely amazing to see all the myriad things they predicted come true, one after the other.
 

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
I was completely against the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and that is archived on this board. I voiced my thoughts often. I wrote about the Curse of the Khyber Pass which once again came to fruition. It has never failed. I advocate the study of history before making decisions.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
I remember you did Cascadians; there were a number of people who felt that if there was going to be a war, Afghanistan and even Iraq were the wrong enemies - at least that was the case in 2004 and after when I joined the board.

There were of course also people in favor, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that when people from Saudi Arabia attack you; going to war with Afghanistan doesn't make a lot of sense...which is not to in anyway disparage the heroism or courage of the soldiers who fought there, it was the leadership decision to go there in the first place (and then stick around for decades) that is questioned.

From a third turning point of view, it was a rather third turning war - with nothing really decided and no obvious outcome..if the Fourth Turning theory is correct, that won't likely be true the next time..
 

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
It's been years so the truth can come out now. The reason the USA bombed the Afghan caves first was given in the Red Book. Look it up. I posted about it but could not give details, just urged ppl to read. The lightbulb should have come on. I had 100% accurate insider intel but could not and cannot give explicit details since the danger remains. However, they should have stopped and left afterward. Get the hell out and stay out. But they didn't and so the Curse went into effect. All archived here. So glad ppl in charge are heeding The Fourth Turning. Ppl need to pay a lot more attention to history.
 

Flashyzipp

Veteran Member
I have no idea what any of these books are about, but as a person who studies history, I can say it always repeats itself and is cyclical.

Years from now historians will study this time period and point to events that are happening yet because we are entrenched in it, we cannot see it.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
While it is entirely possible that Trump is the Grey Champion I think that the constellation of the generations is not quite right. Strauss and Howe mentioned that the "generals" are all from the reactive generations, currently Gen.X. These would be Washington, Grant, and Eisenhour. But I think that the generals that we see are still all Boomers.

But then this crisis is still evolving. As of a few months ago, the biggest fear on this board was a ginned up war against Russia. While that might still occur, the likelihood of it is greatly diminished. So perhaps our crisis is more cultural?

It could be that the celebrities, media, and politicians that are behaving in such an unhinged way get their heads handed to them by the Gen X cohort of their different groups. The generals might not be military this time. We just said good bye to two pretty classy celebrities, Debbie Reynolds, and Mary Tyler Moore. These were women who aged gracefully. Madonna? Wow! It's time for a new bunch of "cool kids", a new style and ethos. The stuff that is happening now with the riots feels OLD. It is as though they are trying to recreate the 60's but there is no authenticity. If you have to pay your shock troops to turn out for a riot, you have a cause that is not grassroots.

I can understand why we have had so many threads that consider the possibility of the civil war and I think we might do that. But what we are seeing so far is not the shape of it. Globalism has yet to reveal all of it's dirty tricks.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Good observations Jane; my feeling is that while there is some basic obvious themes that "work" in generational theory - at least in terms of the US and the West; Strauss and today Howe (Strauss sadly having died fairly young) will admit they didn't get everything; they certainly missed some things and over-stepped on others.

If, the same basic templates hold for "this time" (and there isn't another US civil war skip of some sort) I do think this particular cycle is being especially "messy" in terms of when it begins (9/11 and early or Now and fairly late) and the fact that people are living longer (so you often have two elder generations not just one; and elder and child generations the same template) means things are changing as well.

The economy may also play a factor, having delayed the usual coming of age markers for both late-born Gen X'rs and the current Millennials; this may also be having a cultural impact in how the generations are acting out and coping.

Having originally been trained in both history and anthropology; I find all this very interesting because it really may be a push/pull between the historical cycles of history vs. the cultural trends; then you mix it with individual choices and variations for a rather confusing soup.

When I was studying history in the 1970's, the big argument was the "Impact of the Individual on history vs The Patterns (cycles) of history" entire textbooks, novels and Phd's were written pro or con - my feeling was it is both - and that fits with Generational theory.

My theory is that Individuals are what MAKE history; but historical cycles are what make it possible for certain individuals to accomplish what they do.

A person can be born with all the talent and genetics to be Mozart (or name you classical musician) but they were born 200 years earlier as a peasant on an estate; the best they might achieve might be local fame as a musician and if extremely lucky might have their local noblemen take them to court to entertain their friends; where they just might rise to be a musician in the king's household.

If the world was very lucky, one or two pieces of what they wrote MIGHT come down to us; or we might only know their names on a list somewhere (if that).

The same is true with people for the potential to be great generals - Saladin the great Middle Eastern General who fought Richard the Lion Heart was a middle aged bookworm; perfectly happy with his books and minor duties as a local ruler when duty called. Trained to arms in his youth as were all men of his social class and position; history would never have known him other than perhaps from a few poems and commentaries on the Koran if Richard and the Europeans had not started the Third Crusade.

Either "history" would have had a Saladin in it; but only in one does he get the chance to be a great general; one that from all accounts he probably would have been just as happy to have skipped - I'm sure a number of the "lost" generation generals of WWII felt the same way.
 

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
As I was thinking about the emergence of the Grey Prophet, it's important to realize we are still in a hazy, wide zone of uncertainty. The major crisis which will be the all consuming focus of a Fourth Turning is still not quite here. There will be no doubt when the country is in a life or death situation.

There are multiple Turning factors already in place, and they will affect the country after the trigger event. It's easy to construct a likely list of factors, but how they will will interact or first emerge will probably take most by surprise. Just consider the changing demographics, the racial divides, religious conflicts, and on and on.

One important point to note is that the last election demonstrated how utterly divided the country is over politics. Hillary, after all did secure the popular vote by a wide margin and only lost in the Electoral College by about only 77,000 votes spread over a few states. The Left and the Right are bitterly divided, see each other as fools and evil. The great common denominator of what is meant to be an American is vanishing into warring factions. Just see how the Left is drawing continuing street protests, and the Right offers no concessions. It's become all or nothing.

Just as an example from the Left...

QUOTE:
On Tuesday's broadcast of MSNBC's Morning Joe, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said Democrats must take advantage of "public outcry against the [Trump] administration." Kaine said Democrats must fight back in Congress, the courts, and in the streets.

"What we've got to do is fight in Congress, fight in the courts, fight in the streets, fight online, fight at the ballot box, and now there's the momentum to be able to do this," Kaine said to Democrats. "And we're not afraid of the popular outcry, we're energized by it and that's going to help us do our job and do it better." UNQUOTE.




Both Prechter and Armstrong [each coming from their own differing theoretical foundations] have reached a similiar conclusion: the USA is going to collapse into pieces.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...he-united-states-will-become-just-the-states/

The center cannot hold.

FA
 
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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Neil Howe has said that the Financial Crisis of 2008 marked the beginning of the Crisis Era, but appears that he may have been wrong about that. Flavius Aetius makes a compelling case for the crisis not yet being quite clear. Melodi also says that the the fact that people are living longer may have altered how the generations are interacting and responding to our problems.

In my post above I said that I don't see the "generals", the "git 'er done" types that pull the generations together. So I did some research on Wikipedia to get the ages of some people. The interesting part is, I couldn't find any Xer Democrats. It's as though in the hanging on to power that the Clintons did, they gutted their party of the next tier of leadership. The other thing that I have considered is the notion of the "Idealist" Baby Boomers. Strauss and Howe noted that younger Boomers were far more conservative than the hippie wave. Well, their economic stagnation and decline began in the mid-70's. It's tough to be an "Idealist" when you are trying to make ends meet. So maybe 50 years from now they will look at the generations and say the Idealists were truncated by about half and move forward the Reactives into the late 1950's? The Jones Generation?

Anyway here are some names I came up with, keeping in mind that our "generals " may not be military people. Name and then birth year is listed.

Neil Gorsuch- 1967
Michael Anton (Publius Decius Mus)- 1969 or70
Rand Paul-1963
Ted Cruz-1970
Mike Pence-1959
Paul Ryan-1970
Keith Ellison-1963
Gavin McInnis-1970
Drew Carey-1958

Bannon himself was born in 1953.

Michael Anton has just been outed as the Decius author who skewered the "NeverTrump" RINOs in his essays. He is now a part of the Trump Administration, advising on National Security matters.

Can anybody think of others? I am really culturally illiterate. I didn't know who Gavin McInnis was until his event was protested last night. BTW- He has Canadian and British citizenship.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Jane, I'm worrying about the same thing. Yet I really yearn for some law & order; some enforcement of the laws about disturbing the peace, interfering with people going about their business, and the intimidating threat of these protests going violent. So far, it seems to be handled well. But I do feel there's going to be a line drawn, that's going to say there's a difference between free speech -- and being disruptive to normal life. How that happens, is what I'm watching for.

Sacajawea- Rush said something today that reminded of this thread and this post in particular. He spent the last half hour in a rather grim pep talk, I think because he suspects that the hits are going to just keep coming and we need to stay strong. At any rate, he went through all of the protests, demonstrations that have occurred since inauguration, it was quite the litany.

It dawned on me that this was not organized simply in response to Trump. This has been planned from before the election. This was to be the leverage that a Clinton or Bush was to "succumb" to in order to get the last of the globalist agenda accomplished, the rest of us just rolling over an taking it OR being subject to a violent put down. Remember Jade Helm?

As noted above, Neil Howe has said that the Financial Crisis in 2008 was the catalyst. But Howe is also a globalist. Now he may have been completely honest in his opinion but the resolution of that crisis has occurred entirely to benefit the globalists. No one else. Howe has also been disappointed/surprised at the level of libertarian support in US Millies and far right support from European Millies. They were supposed to be the "nice , cooperative kids".

So the factors that were to gin-up the crisis got derailed by the Trump election (and Brexit). And Rush also mentioned the reality of career people in the bureaucracy as well as some elected people actively working against him. I gather there is some question about the SEAL mission in Yemen that went wrong. It is a very dangerous time. That's why I hope everyone on our side stays calm and strong. Self defense is necessary, but more would just engender the crackdown on everyone, not just the guilty.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Some may remember that there used to be FourthTurning Forum that ran for several years. Neil Howe shut it down in May 2016 and the some of the members started up again here:

http://generational-theory.com/forum/

If you go to the subforum called "Theory Related Political Discussions", you will see their take on the OP.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Some may remember that there used to be FourthTurning Forum that ran for several years. Neil Howe shut it down and the some of the members stared up again here:

http://generational-theory.com/forum/

If you go to the subforum called "Theory Related Political Discussions", you will see their take on the OP.
 
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