ECON Is (almost) All of the German Gold Lost?

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38440/is-almost-all-of-the-german-gold-lost

Is (almost) All of the German Gold Lost?

By: Hans Brinkmann | Wed, Jul 29, 2015

In an extremely revealing interview Peter Boehringer a German gold expert and head of the German gold repatriation movement talks about the current state of the German gold reserves. His evidence seems to suggest that it is possible that all/but 77 tons of the 3384 tons of German gold is lost.

On the 20 July an interview with Peter Boehringer was published on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkZa0zMcEU8) [It's in German - dd]. He is interviewed by Helmut Reinhardt, a journalist from Cashkurs, a German business media network. They talk about his recent book "Holt unser Gold heim" (Bring back our gold - in German only). This is also the name of the German political initiative headed by Peter Boehringer to put pressure on the Bundesbank to be transparent about the central bank gold and to repatriate it.

After 20 years of fruitless enquiries with the Bundesbank, this initiative started in earnest in 2011 with the objective to find out what the situation is with the German gold, where it is stored and to advocate its repatriation. The Bundesbank would neither tell individual politicians nor the people where the gold is located, how much is at what location and how much gold is kept in Germany. The German government released misleading statements about the gold.

Until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 the official stance was that the gold would be safer in the USA (1537t), in France (339t) and the UK (438t) because Germany was in danger of invasion. In October 2012 for the first time the Bundesbank revealed the locations where the gold is kept. On January 16 2013 the Bundesbank under increasing public pressure decided to repatriate half of the gold held abroad. The time frame for the repatriation was from 2013 until 2021.

It amazed experts that it would take eight years to repatriate 674t (1035t was claimed to be already in Germany without providing any evidence). In 2013 allegedly 37t of newly cast gold bars were repatriated to Germany from Paris (32t) and New York (5t) (no evidence provided). According to Bundesbank bookkeeping at as 31 December 2014 (now on the Bundesbank website) 1192t of gold was in Germany. That leaves 2192t of gold in foreign locations, a quantity that would fit into one aeroplane, ship or train. The news about the melting and recasting of German gold raised many eyebrows because this process made it impossible to verify whether the original gold bars were returned, or whether scrap gold from somewhere else was used to make the delivery. Oddly enough it was not the Bundesbank but the German Bild Zeitung that informed the public in its Christmas release. Very few people know that the Bild Zeitung, the best selling daily in Europe, was founded after World War II by the CIA with $1,000,000. Every journalist who works at Bild has to swear lifelong loyalty to the USA and to Israel. This commitment obviously finds its reflection in the newspaper content.

Peter Boehringer was asked what the present day role of gold in a paper currency system was. He quoted the Bundesbank: "Gold is an important part of our currency reserves, for the eventuality of currency turbulences and -crisis". Mr Boehringer continued: "Gold is the ultimate money, the only money without counter party risk". He called central bank gold the iron reserve that must be kept. This is of particular importance in a time of permanent Euro rescue. The Euro would be history for five years already if it would not be rescued day by day, with billions of money.

Faced with the situation that there has been so much intransparency, unaccountability and misinformation by the Bundesbank and the German government and that there is NO hard evidence that there is any gold in the Bundesbank vaults, the journalist asks whether the public can see the gold to verify its existence. Peter Boehringer replies that there is a showroom with 77t gold (a little more than 2% of the total). Unfortunately even the showroom is not open to the public, only one TV journalist was allowed access, bizarrely from children TV-Channel. In the broadcast, the view of the gold bars was enhanced with computer animations.

Recently photographs have emerged of the 1035t of gold that the Bundesbank allegedly held in its vaults before the repatriation started (no external party is allowed to see it). These "gold bars" are stored in intransparent metal containers, sealed with 1500 metal seals. They are inaccessible. There is no proof but the word of the Bundesbank that there is anything of value in these containers. It is suspicious that the gold is hidden away even from Bundesbank staff and sealed in a way that makes any audit impossible. What is the need for this arrangement in a high security vault?

Are these shenanigans just a ploy to obscure that the German Bundesbank gold only exists in computer ledgers? Fantasy gold is moved from here to there but physical gold is not to be seen anywhere. There are no external audits to ascertain that the gold in the accounts exists as an asset of the Bundesbank. Even if there was physical gold - how many claims would be on that gold? How often has it been lent out? It may be right in front of the viewer but there may be 10 parties claiming ownership.

The journalist is clearly worried and he asks Peter Boehringer whether he is not afraid that the Americans one day could refuse to return the German gold, that the German gold would be stolen. Peter Boehringer would not answer this question. Instead he said that his gold initiative wanted to keep the option for the German people to partially back a new German or European currency with gold after the demise of the Euro. The Euro could disappear any day, economically it was finished already. He continued: To have the Bundesbank gold abroad does not make sense because it is exposed to counter party risk (the risk that the gold would not be returned or stolen).

The journalist is still quite worried and he asks what the consequences were if all of the German gold was stolen, that the Americans had sold it or lent it out. Peter Boehringer obviously does not like the question and becomes evasive. He claims that such a scenario was utterly theoretical and not likely at all. Revealingly he adds that a deficit of 2200t could be remedied by buying the missing gold in the open market (an operation that obviously explains why so much paper gold is thrown into the market for years now to trigger panic sales). Pressed by the journalist he concedes that the admission that several thousand tons of gold was missing would be a major market event. In a market where it is presently difficult for institutional investors to buy just half a ton of physical gold, the economic consequences of a deficit of just 1000t would be enormous for gold and beyond. The gold price was a political price and such an event would make it impossible for central banks to maintain borrowing costs close to zero (the end of ZIRP, a loss of confidence in central banks and a spike in yields could trigger a collapse of the financial markets?). Additionally he said there would be geopolitical repercussions for transatlantic relations (the end of the US empire?) if it was conceded that the Federal Reserve Bank, the Banque de France, or the Bank of England did not take their fiduciary duties serious enough. Peter Boehringer did not want to elaborate further because he felt that such an event was quite improbable - such a calamity would never be admitted. It would be acceptable for the Germans if the missing gold was bought secretly in the open market and then delivered to the Bundesbank.

The interview then switched to the copycat gold repatriations/repatriation attempts in now 16! countries. They follow Germany's example because they are worried about the safety of their gold and want to store it at home.

Conclusion: Peter Boehringer has shown in this interview that there in no proof that the German gold exists as a physical asset of the Bundesbank. He states that he firmly believes that the gold that is reported as being stored in the Bundesbank vaults does exist. Belief is a religious term. In the world of law and commerce evidence is required. Unfortunately there is none. The information available about this subject was sufficient to shatter the confidence of foreign governments in the integrity of US institutions. There are now 16 countries where gold repatriations are demanded or in full swing. To buy back several thousand tons of physical gold in secret is a daunting target in a market where it is already difficult to buy half a ton of gold. The historically unprecedented recall of physical gold explains the desperate attempts by the big players, supposedly the US (Federal Reserve Bank, US Treasury, ultra secretive US Exchange Stabilisation Fund) and allied authorities (Bank of England, Bank for International Settlements) to smash the gold price and to trigger panic sales among gold holders. As forced buyers they are in corner and there is no way out without massive loss in wealth and reputation.

P.S. There is a very good video by Grant Williams about the collapse of gold fractional reserve banking ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzzoBVK3fyE ). He made this video in March 2013. He is a real prophet and saw this development coming.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Just go in to the bank presidents office and cap him in one of his knee's and threaten to keep doing it until he tells what hapened to the gold. Oh and make sure its all videoed to show the rest of the country.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
Just another thread about a barbaric relic that does not matter in modern banking ... until it does matter. I hope everyone will watch the video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzzoBVK3fyE .

Because when gold matters to central bankers ... not much else will.

Therefore gold should matter to you too ... even if all the gold you will ever own is in your wedding ring.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
Charts at the link ...
======================

http://www.safehaven.com/article/38441/more-ritholtz-on-gold-and-another-response

More Ritholtz on Gold, and Another Response

By: Gary Tanashian | Wed, Jul 29, 2015

Anyone who has been bearish on gold for the last 4 years has been right. They have been right in Euros and though the trend appears to have been gently changing over the last year or two, they have been right in Canada & Aussie (i.e. commodity currencies) dollars as well. Certainly, they have been right that gold as measured in most global stock markets has been (and remains) bearish.

They have also been right in that gold as a hedge against the kind of inflation that global policy makers have promoted non-stop for years now, has utterly failed. And for gold as an insurance and value asset, a small phase like 4 years is like a blip. Yet still, so many people throw their hats into the ring on gold, constantly micro-managing its every twist and turn.

In 2011 it was what we used to call the "Gold Generals" touting hyper inflation, even as the second to last arrow was about to be inserted on our 'Continuum' © chart, indicating that anyone taking an aggressive inflationary stance in their investments was also taking a big chance that it would be different this time and the Continuum would break the limiter AKA the 100 month EMA. It wasn't and it didn't.

$TYX 30-Year T-Bond Yield INDX
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This brings me to Barry Ritholtz again. His piece at Bloomberg titled Good Luck Bargain Hunting for Gold Miners at Bloomberg is more about the valuations of the miners vs. the metal, but it is some of the wording that I want to address here.


The primary reason is straightforward: Gold is bought and sold based on a narrative that has turned out to be patently untrue. As we move further away from the great credit crisis of 2008-09, the global financial system has stabilized, undercutting the appeal of gold as a hedge against catastrophe. The U.S. economy is improving, as are those of many other countries. The wild inflation and collapse of the U.S. dollar that was going to lead to the demise of civilization and make gold an essential for investors? None of that has happened. Instead the world has low inflation or even deflation and the dollar, the world's reserve currency, has risen to multiyear highs.

He is right to criticize the hyper inflationist 'death of the dollar' contingent of the gold bug "community", itself a word that belies group-think and susceptibility to bias reinforcement by the group. Did you catch the little 'Overt Inflationary Effects' planet in our handy Macrocosm graphic (don't take its planetary guide literally, it was mostly for fun) from last weekend? There is a reason that I assigned that gold input to the second tiniest planet in the Macrocosm; because it was a wrong headed thesis when Uranium, Crude Oil, Copper and Silver were proven to be bubbles (with relentless inflationist touting of the 'resources' and 'hard assets' sectors in each case) and it is obviously still wrong now.

Gold Out Performs Stock Markets
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This is not to say that inflation cannot be a fundamental input for gold. It has often been a major input. But on this cycle the inflation is not manifesting in rising prices, at least not in relation to the stock market, investment in which can be seen as a 'hedge' against price inflation bubbling up in certain services sectors of the economy.

The commodity bubble is all done. The inflation, with the aid of a persistent and powerful global deflationary force, is working in a 'Goldilocks' manner and flowing into risk 'ON' speculation in paper of all kinds and in some hard assets, just not the kinds that traditional commodity and resources gurus had foreseen. Mainly, the public is doing just fine buying and selling appreciating homes. Who needs several tons of Copper sitting in the garage?

Anyway, back to Barry Ritholtz...


"Gold is bought and sold based on a narrative that has turned out to be patently untrue"

Agreed; the majority of gold bugs have believed the wrong narrative. It was wrong in 2008 and it was wrong again in 2011, and you are using an incorrect narrative as the foundation of your stance in these mainstream media articles that are so cartoonish even the public can understand it.


"the global financial system has stabilized, undercutting the appeal of gold as a hedge against catastrophe"

Again, agreed. The system has stabilized but how many times do we have to review this chart before we can all agree that it has taken extraordinary (and incredibly, ongoing) measures with the implication being that neither you Barry, nor I, know how the fallout is going to go based on embedded distortions that no one can fully understand? You call gold a "hedge against catastrophe". I have never called it that because I don't see it that way. I have always called it monetary value (which can fluctuate depending on market sentiment) and insurance. Period.

$RIX 3-Month T-Bill Discount Rate INDX
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"The wild inflation and collapse of the U.S. dollar that was going to lead to the demise of civilization and make gold an essential for investors? None of that has happened."

Barry (not that you read this little out of the mainstream website, but work with me here), do you see the larger planets in the Macrocosm above? They represent the kinds of things that drive people to liquidity and a risk 'OFF' stance. What is the ultimate risk 'OFF' hard asset in a monetary world that while still working fine, has gone utterly mad in its pushing of traditional policy boundaries? Why, it's gold. But what is the first and most intense repository of that liquidity? It is none other than dear old Uncle Buck, for US citizens and the way things are currently structured, much of the rest of the world as well.

I have criticized the 'death of the dollar' and 'hard assets/resources' promotions every which way from Sunday for years now and it is due to a view that before the US dollar falls apart it is likely to totally annihilate hyperinflationists first (per Prechter and Hoye to name two). Hence the big planets above are economic contraction, gold rising vs. stock markets, confidence declining and yield spreads indicating systemic stress (inflationary or deflationary). This is why I have remained completely out of the way of the gold sector destruction for 4 years now, with my market report well in tune with that stance.

So yes Barry, "none of that has happened"; thankfully, or I'd have been wrong in my own thinking (always a possibility). But I have seen nothing to dissuade me yet that I am, as a once and future gold bull (and constant valuer of gold as insurance), on the right course. Several macro fundamental aspects need to come into line and we need to find a bottom technically, sure. But your article adds another input to the bullish camp because you are teaching people who should not be in the gold market (mainstream public) at a real bottom lessons based on the same incorrect assumptions made by the Gold Bug "community" that you seem to provoke.

Maybe you even enjoy stirring the pot and getting the hate mail. I can relate to that. While he did not give me permission to reprint his email, a long-term gold bull emailed me the other day noting my "subjective, gold bashing rhetoric" and my "delusional, fiat money bliss" (ha ha ha). This despite the fact that he and I are of the same long-term orientation. It's just that our inputs are different and so he sees me as basically one step above Satan (what does that make you Barry? Just kidding, but you get my point).

Misconceptions are everywhere and the stuff you base your articles on do not help that situation. I write that as the other side of the coin that gives much critique to misconceived pro-gold promotions.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Excellent video by Grant Williams. I wish he hadn't added musical effects. It made it hard to follow with a British? accent.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
If the aliens want gold ... why shouldn't WE?

Same argument as central banks ... if they hold most of their assets in gold ... why shouldn't we?
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Every human civilization in history that had access to gold, held it in high regard....it has always been a measure of worth.

Some bankers and leftist snotbags in the last 50 years are gonna say otherwise?

Nah.


Shame on the Germans for losing track of their jingle.
 

RCSAR

Veteran Member
Not to drift but there is also jap gold they stole....that we stole from them. Well, we won so it is ours now. The japs picked China and other places it invaded clean to the bone of gold/gems anything of value. They made the Germans look sloppy.

Search Operation Golden Lilly

As for the German gold. We won.
The bankers funded both sides so it was a win win for them. So guess who has the gold? Yea, it went into a black hole AKA the bankers pockets.

Rumoe has it that it was used in the off the books budget, not the black budget but 100% off the budget. All in the name of fighting communism. Dig around for a program like Operation Paper Clip (opc). I forgot the OP name but it was started mid 40s and involved the money side of the post war. Anyway it was around 1947 the funds/gold/whatever was used (so it is said) to put the Intel community in the banking game in a massive way. In fact we kept the high German Nazi Intel guy for the Eastern Front in place to work with us post war to run anti-commie ops.

I have tried to follow the rabbit trails for years to find the funding for the NAZI party and prewar Germany for a long time. The deeper I go the more trails I find. It is confusing. Most of what I said can be found documented and some is speculation. Do your own research and you may find something I overlooked. You open one door and there are four more doors to follow, and so on.

I may have been led astray in some places. I know I have been on some points in my research and had to back up and take another trail. If I dig through my notes and come across my list of key names I will post them here. Some of the key clues are just mentions of operations/meetings/names mentioned in autobiographies of now dead Germans and other people. It is a puzzle.
 

TKO

Veteran Member
Not to worry. The Germans will get their gold back in the form of Iranian oil when that all collapses.
 

2x2

Inactive
Gold down $10.00 this morning.

Watch JDST, DUST. Should be a quick run up at the open. So far looking to open gap up.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
How far down do you think they can drive it?

I used to read Paul van Eeden ... he was a broker with Rick Rule's GRI back in the late 1990s when I first set up an account there, by the time the paperwork was done he had gone to work with Doug Casey to learn the newsletter business and after a year or two went out on his own with a $5k subscription ... he reported selling his holdings when gold hit $700 on the way up, he said that decision was based on his analysis of what the market would eventually do.

But that $700 number has stuck with me since back then. I bought physical up to $900 but sold out all the non-legal tender stuff a while back. The little bit of pre-33 US stuff and Eagles (mostly fractional, they were cheap after Y2K) are last resort holdings.
 

2x2

Inactive
How far down do you think they can drive it?

I used to read Paul van Eeden ... he was a broker with Rick Rule's GRI back in the late 1990s when I first set up an account there, by the time the paperwork was done he had gone to work with Doug Casey to learn the newsletter business and after a year or two went out on his own with a $5k subscription ... he reported selling his holdings when gold hit $700 on the way up, he said that decision was based on his analysis of what the market would eventually do.

But that $700 number has stuck with me since back then. I bought physical up to $900 but sold out all the non-legal tender stuff a while back. The little bit of pre-33 US stuff and Eagles (mostly fractional, they were cheap after Y2K) are last resort holdings.

Really hard to pinpoint but right now 1000 looks to be hit. All of the global "upsets" we've seen haven't goosed gold one bit. It's a one day at a time proposition.

What more is there to say, other then follow the money. I posted somewhere this morning to watch JDST & DUST,,,, look what happened.

http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/JDST,DUST

A lot of FRN,s to be had here.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Home for more... if interested.

I have figured since the runup and downturn that $1000 was a big fat target for the paper pushers. It seemed like a barrier on the way up ... and ceilings seem to have a way of becoming floors.

Insurance gold is still insurance ... NOT an investment or speculation. One HAS to keep priorities in order. I'm not a trader, I experimented while I was 'learning' (we are all still learning) and discovered I don't have the temperament for it. I discovered that I do have an occasional talent for sitting ... as Jesse Livermore (http://www.valuewalk.com/jesse-lauriston-livermore-resource-page/) put it. :D Sometimes sitting requires the ability to sit still and bleed for a while ... but if homework is done properly, the what is partially predictable even if the when is less so.
 

2x2

Inactive
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Home for more... if interested.

I have figured since the runup and downturn that $1000 was a big fat target for the paper pushers. It seemed like a barrier on the way up ... and ceilings seem to have a way of becoming floors.

Insurance gold is still insurance ... NOT an investment or speculation. One HAS to keep priorities in order. I'm not a trader, I experimented while I was 'learning' (we are all still learning) and discovered I don't have the temperament for it. I discovered that I do have an occasional talent for sitting ... as Jesse Livermore (http://www.valuewalk.com/jesse-lauriston-livermore-resource-page/) put it. :D Sometimes sitting requires the ability to sit still and bleed for a while ... but if homework is done properly, the what is partially predictable even if the when is less so.

Not disagreeing with you one bit. My whole point is that FRN's are needed to get the insurance. If we Like it or not FRN's have the liquidity to move in & out as the situation changes, making more FRN's or preserving them.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/gold.is.over.1000.dollars

Gold is over $1000 an ounce; now what?
October 14, 2009

Gold (and silver) is good for more than swapping out of and into FRN$ however... that is its primary utility at present, and unfortunately it is a reality that seems to completely fixate the minds of many to the point that it blinds them to thousands of years of history.
 

2x2

Inactive
Damn!! had a bit long reply and it away.
Anyways Long story shortened, FRN's and liquidity.
Tight stops kicked me out me out on the interday reversal, preserving profits and capital.
Bottom line is that I'm done "working" today, maybe.

http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/nugt,jnug,jdst,dust

A big drop that never hurt me.

now watch NUGT & JNUG.

It's called "Double Dipping.
 

NoDandy

Has No Life - Lives on TB
" Is (almost) All of the German Gold Lost? "

Rather than "lost" I would say STOLEN !

:ld:
 
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