Solar IS A 'CANNIBAL CME' COMING - AND - A DARK ERUPTION ON THE SUN

Heliobas Disciple

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
(fair use applies)


IS A 'CANNIBAL CME' COMING?
One CME left the sun on July 14th, followed by a second faster CME on July 15th. According to a NOAA model, the second CME will sweep up the first, forming a 'cannibal CME' that hits Earth on July 18th. The impact could spark G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms.


A DARK ERUPTION ON THE SUN (UPDATED):
One of the most visually dramatic eruptions of Solar Cycle 25 occured on July 14th, when a spray of dark plasma flew away from the sun's southern hemisphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the event:


The explosion started in the magnetic canopy of AR3370, a small and previously unremarkable sunspot. X-ray sensors on Earth-orbiting satellites registered a C8.8-class solar flare at 1844 UT just before the dark ejecta appeared. What made it "dark"? It's not made of dark matter. Instead, plasma hurled away from the sunspot was relatively cool and dense, so it silhouetted the glow of the underlying sun.


Update: New images from SOHO confirm that this eruption did indeed produce a CME. It is the first of two CMEs merging to form the cannibal CME described above. The second CME was launched into space on July 15th by a C-class flare from big sunspot AR3363: movie.
 
T

tanstaafl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It's not like we're talking solids and small volumes of space here, so wouldn't the faster CME just pass the slower CME, leaving the slower CME trailing behind? Although I guess the larger or stronger magnetic field could be a dominant factor, accelerating or slowing the smaller or weaker magnetic field?
 
Heliobas Disciple

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
UPDATE


Spaceweather.com Time Machine

spaceweather.com
(fair use applies)

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Intermittent G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible for the next 2 days as Earth's magnetic field reverberates from a series of CME impacts and near misses since July 16th. The storms could intensify to category G2 or G3 on July 20th when a new and more potent CME arrives. See below.

A SIGNIFICANT EXPLOSION ON THE SUN (UPDATED): We've been waiting for this. Big sunspot AR3363 just produced a significant solar flare, a long-duration M6-class event during the early hours of July 18th. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast near the sun's southwestern limb:


Energetic protons accelerated by the flare have reached Earth and are now peppering the top of our planet's atmosphere. This is called a "radiation storm." According to data from NOAA's GOES-16 satellite, it is a category S2 event.

Although the explosion was not X-class, it was more powerful than many X-flares would be. Why? Because it lasted so long. The flare's X-ray output was above M5 for more than an hour and above M1 for nearly 4 hours. It had plenty of time to lift a substantial CME out of the sun's atmosphere.

Indeed, SOHO coronagraphs have since detected a bright CME emerging from the blast site:


Although the CME is not heading directly for Earth, it appears to have an Earth-directed component. A NASA model suggests it could deliver an effective glancing blow as early as July 20th (0000 UT). NOAA is doing their own modeling, and results should be available soon.

Our preliminary forecast: The CME's flank will reach Earth on July 20th. Its impact could spark G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms, with a slight chance of G3. Stay tuned.

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See also:

iSWACygnetStreamer
 
Heliobas Disciple

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
SuspiciousObservers did a quick video tonight about this eruption, with a promise to go into more detail in his morning video. It does have great graphics of this latest explosion so even though it's very short, I'll post it.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au3VHw2KYJQ
Powerful Solar Flare, S2 Proton Storm at Earth, Super-Wide CME
Suspicious0bservers
5 hours ago
1 min 42 sec

Full Analysis in the AM Show Tomorrow.

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