INTL Ireland Election - November 29, 2024

[Plain Jane]

Hopefully it's more 'Póg mo thóin' than 'Is féidir linn'

Translation please!

The last of my Thanksgiving guests have just departed so I'm getting caught up.

 

[Marthanoir]

Translation please!

The last of my Thanksgiving guests have just departed so I'm getting caught up.

Hopefully it's more 'Kiss My Arse' than ' Yes We Can'

 

[bluelady]

Yes there's a Certificate of Irish Heritage for those that want to acknowledge their Irish ancestry but don't qualify for an Irish passport.
It doesn't help with emigration but some of the new Alt Right parties are trying to bring in an easier route for Irish Diaspora to emigrate here.

Oh, I will look into that! I'm jealous...LOL! that dh is an Irish citizen because his father was born there, and our children are getting theirs. In fact our youngest is moving permanently to Dublin in January. But my closest Irish ancestor is my great-grandmother.

We won't move to Ireland because our grands are here, but I'd like to be even an honorary member of the club.

ETA: Apparently the Irish government abandoned the scheme in 2015 due to low interest.

Of course there are lots of companies that will print something up for you...LOL!

 

[Plain Jane]

Ireland votes in a close-run election where incumbents hope to cling on to power

Ireland is voting in a parliamentary election that will decide the next government. It also will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of incumbents being ousted by disgruntled voters.

apnews.com

Ireland votes in a close-run election where incumbents hope to cling on to power​

By JILL LAWLESS and PETER MORRISON
Updated 8:43 AM EST, November 29, 2024

DUBLIN (AP) — Ireland is voting Friday in a parliamentary election that will decide the next government — and will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of incumbents being ousted by disgruntled voters after years of pandemic, international instability and a cost-of-living pressures.

Polls opened at 7 a.m.. (0700GMT), and Ireland’s 3.8 million voters are selecting 174 lawmakers to sit in the Dail, the lower house of parliament.

Here’s a look at the parties, the issues and the likely outcome.

Who’s running?​

The outgoing government was led by the two parties who have dominated Irish politics for the past century: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. They have similar center-right policies but are longtime rivals with origins on opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war.

After the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat they formed a coalition, agreeing to share Cabinet posts and take turns as taoiseach, or prime minister. Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin served as premier for the first half of the term and was replaced by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar in December 2022. Varadkar unexpectedly stepped down in March, passing the job to current Taoiseach Simon Harris.

Opposition party Sinn Fein achieved a stunning breakthrough in the 2020 election, topping the popular vote, but was shut out of government because Fianna Fail and Fine Gael refused to work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic ties with militant group the Irish Republican Army during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland.

Under Ireland’s system of proportional representation, each of the 43 constituencies elects multiple lawmakers, with voters ranking their preferences. That makes it relatively easy for smaller parties and independent candidates with a strong local following to gain seats.

This election includes a large crop of independent candidates, ranging from local campaigners to far-right activists and reputed crime boss Gerry “the Monk” Hutch.

What are the main issues?​

As in many other countries, the cost of living — especially housing — has dominated the campaign. Ireland has an acute housing shortage, the legacy of failing to build enough new homes during the country’s “Celtic Tiger” boom years and the economic slump that followed the 2008 global financial crisis.

“There was not building during the crisis, and when the crisis receded, offices and hotels were built first,” said John-Mark McCafferty, chief executive of housing and homelessness charity Threshold.

The result is soaring house prices, rising rents and growing homelessness.

After a decade of economic growth, McCafferty said “Ireland has resources” — not least 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in back taxes the European Union has ordered Apple to pay it — “but it is trying to address big historic infrastructural deficits.”

Tangled up with the housing issue is immigration, a fairly recent challenge to a country long defined by emigration. Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by war and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.

This country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have attracted tension and protests. A stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been charged, sparked the worst rioting Ireland had seen in decades.

Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a significant far-right party, but far-right voices on social media seek to drum up hostility to migrants, and anti-immigrant independent candidates are hoping for election in several districts. The issue appears to be hitting support for Sinn Fein, as working-class supporters bristled at its pro-immigration policies.

What’s the likely outcome?​

Opinion polls suggest voters’ support is split into five roughly even chunks — for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, several smaller parties and an assortment of independents.

Fine Gael has run a gaffe-prone campaign, Fianna Fail has remained steady in the polls and Sinn Fein says it has momentum, but is unlikely to win power unless the other parties drop their opposition to working with it.

Analysts say the most likely outcome is another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, possibly with a smaller party or a clutch of independents as kingmakers.

“It’s just a question of which minor group is going to be the group that supports the government this time,” said Eoin O’Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University. “Coalition-forming is about putting a hue on what is essentially the same middle-of-the-road government every time.”

When will we know the results?​

Polls close Friday at 10 p.m. (2200GMT), when an exit poll will give the first hints about the result. Counting ballots begins on Saturday morning. Full results could take several days, and forming a government days or weeks after that.

Harris, who cast his vote in Delgany, south of Dublin, said Irish voters and politicians have “got a long few days ahead of us.”


“Isn’t it the beauty and the complexity of our system that when the clock strikes 10 o’clock tonight, there’ll be an exit poll but that won’t even tell us the outcome of the election,” he said.

___

Lawless reported from London

 

[Melodi]

I wasn't able to vote because my accident was one day too late to apply for an absentee ballot (my housemate tried). She offered to try to wheel me over to the polling station from the nursing home, but I decided vital as it was, keeping my surgical area stable was even more so.

It would be a rocky ride, and I can't get into a regular car seat yet for the same reasons. This will be the second election I have missed since becoming eligible. The first time, the registration got mixed up, and I wasn't listed for the national polling.

There is a lot of fatigue with the current government of Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum (think Republicans and Democrats in the US if they had a uniparty government). But the alternatives are not great. We shall see what happens.

Here, they use paper ballots, and the counting (by hand) doesn't start until tomorrow morning.

 

[Mzkitty]

Saw this early this morning:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862504950539927858

View: https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/1862504950539927858

 

[Plain Jane]

Irish general election: Exit poll suggests tight three-way race

Voters have been casting their ballot to choose representatives to serve in the Irish parliament.

www.bbc.com

Tight three-way race in Irish general election, RTÉ exit poll suggests​

Kevin Sharkey and Amy Murray
BBC News NI

BBC
An exit poll in the Republic of Ireland suggests that Sinn Féin has 21.1% of first preference votes with Fine Gael having 21%, making the result of the general election too close to call.

The poll indicates Fianna Fáil has 19.5% of first preference votes.

It also suggests that 20% of the second preference votes goes to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%.

The exit poll was published at 22:00 local time and was carried out by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin. It has a margin of error of 1.4%.

In the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin secured 24.53% first preference votes, while Fianna Fáil obtained 22.18% and Fine Gael got 20.86%.

PA Media
Polls closed at 22:00 local time in The Republic of Ireland's election

Friday's poll indicates Green Party first preference support stands at 4%; Labour at 5%; the Social Democrats at 5.8%; People Before Profit-Solidarity at 3.1% and Independents at 12.7%, Independent Ireland 2.2% with others on 1.9%.

The poll is based on 5,018 completed interviews that were carried out immediately after people voted at polling stations in 43 constituencies across the Republic of Ireland.

What happens now?​

The results from this poll set the scene for the official counting of votes which starts at 09:00 local time on Saturday and is expected to continue across the weekend.

It is possible that some of the 43 constituencies may not have a final result until the beginning of next week.

Successful candidates are known as Teachtaí Dála (TDs) and there are 174 seats to fill, but the Ceann Comhairle (speaker) is returned automatically.

More than 680 candidates competed for the remaining 173 seats.
The number of seats required for an overall majority is 88 but no single party is fielding enough candidates to win a majority on its own.

The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is on 18 December but it is unlikely coalition negotiations will have finished by then.

A government will be officially formed when the Dáil passes a vote to install a new taoiseach (Irish prime minister).

Few expect the new government to be in place before 2025.

It took four months after the last general election, in 2020, before Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party, reached a deal to form the previous Irish government.

Sinn Féin became the leading opposition party, and both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have both already ruled them out as a potential coalition partner in the event of a similar outcome this election.

The three largest parties are joined in the Dáil by a number of smaller parties and a significant number of independent candidates.

Who are the leading political parties?​

Politics in the Republic was traditionally dominated by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Both parties emerged following a split in nationalist opinion over the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty.

Fianna Fáil was once seen as more centrist, Fine Gael as more conservative, but differences have blurred and both are now seen as centre-right parties.

This year’s election is the first major electoral test for the Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach Simon Harris.

He was new to the role in April, when he became the youngest person to lead the Republic of Ireland at 37 after his predecessor Leo Varadkar stepped down.

Sinn Féin is an Irish republican and democratic socialist party and the main opposition party.

Mary Lou McDonald took over leadership of the party in 2018, and since then the Dublin politician has sought to distance her party from criticism about its historic links to IRA violence.

PA Media
Mary Lou McDonald cast her ballot in Dublin on Friday morning

Sinn Féin made significant gains in 2020 and topped the popular vote, winning 37 seats.

Since then it has become the largest party across Northern Ireland's councils, as well as in its assembly and at Westminster.

Other parties putting forward candidates for the election include Labour, Social Democrats, PBP-Solidarity, Aontú and the newly-formed Independent Ireland.

Gender divides and transfers​

PA Media
Simon Harris brought his family to the polling station in County Wicklow

The exit poll suggests there was a gender divide when it comes to first preference votes.

Figures show 22% of Sinn Féin voters were male, while 20% were female.

The share of male Fine Gael voters in the poll was 20%, while 22% of voters were female.

Fianna Fáil had 19% of male votes, while 20% were female.

In terms of transfers, 39% of Fianna Fáil's second preferences went to a second party candidate, whereas 30% went to a Fine Gael candidate. About 5% of transfers went to Sinn Féin.

The poll also found that about 37% of Fine Gael transfers went to a second candidate, with 32% going to a Fianna Fáil candidate.

'Could be a challenge'​

Analysis by BBC News NI's political editor, Enda McClafferty
Exit polls are far from an exact science, but they are a good indicator of where the votes go.

In 2020, it correctly predicted a close battle between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin and in the end, only three seats separated the parties

If the exit poll is right this time, then Sinn Féin will be pleased with its performance.

Coming in slightly ahead of Fine Gael, but short of the almost 25% Sinn Féin secured in 2020.

The party limped into the election campaign of the back of a series of damaging controversies and poor European and local council elections in June when it secured just 12% of the vote.

Over the three-week campaign, it managed to recover the lost ground with the promise of bringing change.

But delivering on that pledge could be a challenge if the exit poll is right.

It suggests Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5% could return to the government benches, with the help of two smaller parties and some independents.

While Sinn Féin’s path to power is more challenging as it had hoped to lead a coalition of left-leaning parties, it may struggle to get the numbers with the performance of those smaller parties.

But the true picture will only become clear when all results are in.

Leaders go to the polls​

PA Media
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin voted alongside his family in County Cork on Friday

Earlier, Fine Gael leader Simon Harris was the first major party leader to vote.

Harris and his family travelled to Delgany National School in County Wicklow shortly after polls opened at 07:00 local time.

Micheál Martin, the tánaiste (Irish deputy prime minister) and leader of Fianna Fáil, voted with his family at St Anthony's Boys National School in Ballinlough, County Cork.

Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald voted at Deaf Village Ireland on the Navan Road in Dublin.

Things looked a little different for Holly Cairns, leader of the Social Democrats, who gave birth on polling day.

Elsewhere, officials went the extra mile for island inhabitants on polling day.

Presiding Officer Caroline Sharkey and Garda (Irish police officer) Ronan Steede set sail to Gola Island, off the County Donegal coast on the west of Ireland, where 31 registered voters were able to submit their ballots in the living room of one of the islanders.

There will be coverage of the election results on BBC Two NI at 18:00 GMT on Saturday and on BBC One NI on Sunday Politics at 10:00 GMT.

 

[Marthanoir]

Green party are being destroyed

 

[Plain Jane]

Irish general election: Two-thirds of seats declared in tight three-way battle

After securing re-election, Irish party leaders face the challenge of trying to form the next government.

www.bbc.com

Majority of seats declared in close Irish general election​

10 hours ago
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Kevin Sharkey
BBC News NI in Dublin

PA Media
Irish general election votes being counted at Nemo Rangers GAA Club in Cork
The majority of seats in the Irish parliament have been filled, with
the Fianna Fáil party leading a tight three-way battle in the country's general election.

With all 43 constituencies' initial counts in, first preference percentage share for the largest three parties was: Fianna Fáil 21.9%, Fine Gael 20.8%, Sinn Féin 19.0%.

So far, 138 of 174 seats have been filled, with counting having resumed on Sunday morning.

Fianna Fáil, who had been in a coalition government with Fine Gael and the Green Party, is projected to win the most seats.

Counting resumed on Sunday morning in the election which had a turnout of 59.7% - the lowest in more than a century.

The leaders of the three main Irish political parties were all re-elected on Saturday to serve in the Dáil (lower house of Irish parliament).

Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil, Simon Harris of Fine Gael, and the Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald have overcome their first obstacles by retaining their seats.

Now, they all face an even bigger challenge - to try to form the next government.

PA Media
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald (center) topped the poll and was re-elected in the Dublin Central constituency

Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik has also been re-elected in the Dublin Bay South constituency.

Social Democrats party leader Holly Cairns and Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins retained their seats in the Cork South West constituency, and

Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín has been re-elected in West Meath and Richard Boyd Barrett from People Before Profit-Solidarity has been returned for the Dún Laoghaire constituency.

The Green Party's Roderic O'Gorman was the last major party leader re-elected, for Dublin West.

He was the only one of the Greens' 12 sitting TDs to retain their seats, with former Green party deputy leader and government minister Catherine Martin eliminated in the Dublin Rathdown race earlier.

O'Gorman said Green candidates got "very few transfers" from either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, the party's former coalition partners.
"I don't think they did us any favours, but I wasn't expecting them to do us favours," he said.

PA Media
The Green Party's Roderic O'Gorman was the last major leader to be re-elected
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Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have served together in the outgoing government, and after the first day of counting votes, they seem well placed to return to government.

If they agree to do so, they may need the support of one of the smaller parties or a number of the many independent TDs who are expected to be elected as the counting of votes continues on Sunday.

Sinn Féin says it also wants to be in the next government, and the party is ready to speak to other parties and independents.

But, based on current predictions, the scale of the challenge facing Sinn Féin is enormous.

 

[Plain Jane]

Irish general election: Fianna Fáil emerges as largest party

The party has won 48 seats, with Sinn Féin second on 39 and Fine Gael third on 38.

www.bbc.com

Fianna Fáil emerges as largest party in Irish election​

11 hours ago
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Enda McClafferty
BBC News NI political editor

PA Media
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin previously served as taoiseach from 2020 to 2022

Fianna Fáil has won the most seats in the Dáil (lower house of parliament) following the Republic of Ireland's general election.

It won 48 seats while Sinn Féin - the main opposition party in the last Dáil - won 39.

Fine Gael, which has been in coalition with Fianna Fáil since 2020, was third with 38 seats.

Those two parties seem best placed to form a new government, but Sinn Féin insists it will still be involved in the coalition talks.

Candidates fought it out for 174 seats in the Dáil, with 88 needed to secure a majority.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined have 86.

First preference percentage share for the largest three parties was: Fianna Fáil 21.9%, Fine Gael 20.8%, Sinn Féin 19.0%.

Turnout for the election was 59.7%, the lowest in more than a century.

Fianna Fáil's deputy leader Jack Chambers told RTE's Morning Ireland on Monday that he did not expect a new government to be formed before Christmas.

But he said he did not expect talks to take five months like the last time.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael's junior coalition partner, the Green Party, had a disappointing election, dropping from 12 seats to just one.

Who could form the next government?​

To return to government, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have a number of options, including doing a deal with Labour or the Social Democrats - who each won 11 seats - or trying to strike an agreement with the right-wing party Independent Ireland, which has four seats.

Another option would be to work with a combination of some of the 16 independent politicians, two Aontú TDs (MPs) or the single TD from the 100% Redress Party.

The frontrunner to be the next taoiseach (Irish prime minister) is Fianna Fáil leader Michéal Martin.

Nothing at this stage can be ruled out as weeks, if not months, of political talks are now likely.

Labour TD Marie Sherlock said her party would not go into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael alone without other smaller parties.

"There is no circumstance that I can envisage that the Labour Party will be going into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. We can only form a basis for negotiation if we're with other small parties," Sherlock told RTÉ.

Eoin Ó Broin, Sinn Féin TD for Dublin Mid West, said his party was keen to talk to other "progressive parties".

He emphasised that "no deal has been done yet".

"Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael clearly would prefer to go in with each other, despite the cost that it'll have for the general population but they haven't formed a government yet," he said.

"It's incumbent on us to meet with other likeminded parties to see how we can ensure that those really urgent pressing issues for people, housing, healthcare, cost of living, remain at the centre of the agenda."

Chambers, who was re-elected in the Dublin West constituency, said his party was "very clear" on its position with Sinn Féin.

“There is no common ground when it comes to substance in policy," he added.

Speaking to the BBC's Good Morning Ulster, he said: “We’re going to significantly increase our representation here in the capital of Dublin and indeed across the country.

"And we will have a greater level of representation in the next Dáil than we did in the last one, and that’s having served in government when we had serious economic challenges.

'Working well together'​

Among the new TDs is Fine Gael's Emer Currie.
The former Irish senator is a daughter of the late Northern Ireland politician Austin Currie, who co-founded the Social Democratic and Labour Party.

"He would have been absolutely delighted," Currie told Good Morning Ulster, adding that her election was a "very special" moment for her whole family.

With her party in line to return to government, Currie said the result of the election seemed to indicate that the public was content with the status quo.

"It’s a statement that they felt that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were working well together," she said.

Meanwhile, Cian O'Callaghan, deputy leader of Social Democrats, said there was a "possibility of a coalition with left parties in it" but due to the results so far, a left only government would not be possible.

Callaghan has been re-elected in Dublin Bay North.

Responding to claims that the left failed to coalesce their argument before the election, O'Callaghan said: "I think every party needs to stand on their own two feet and make the case to the electorate as to why people should vote for them.

"The reason we have different parties is because there is differences and it gives people a different choice as well in the election."

Greens 'lost all but one'​

Niall Carson/PA Wire
Green leader Roderick O'Gorman is the only member of his party to retain his seat so far

The Green Party will be "very disappointed" in their results according to Lisa Keenan, assistant professor of political science at Trinity College, Dublin.

"They were going into in this election with 12 seats, they’ve lost all but one," she said.

"They were perceived to be lucky to hold on to that one – that’s the seat of their leader Roderic O’Gorman.

"And I think for them it’s a little bit tough to take in a sense that in government they achieved many, many important policy wins."

(Video and chart at the link.)

 

[Marthanoir]

The Watermelon Party lost dramatically, they very nearly had zero seats.
It was touch and go if O'Gorman would get enough transfers ( Single Transferable Vote , remember )

Watermelon - Green on the outside, Red ( commie ) on the inside.

 

[Marthanoir]

Sinn Fein are fantasising about a far Left coalition , they don't have the numbers even with all the Lefty minor parties and independents.

Nope it will be Fianna Fail & Fine Gael with either a minor party or some Independents.