INTL Ireland Election - November 29, 2024

[Plain Jane]

Hopefully it's more 'Póg mo thóin' than 'Is féidir linn'

Translation please!

The last of my Thanksgiving guests have just departed so I'm getting caught up.

 

[Marthanoir]

Translation please!

The last of my Thanksgiving guests have just departed so I'm getting caught up.

Hopefully it's more 'Kiss My Arse' than ' Yes We Can'

 

[bluelady]

Yes there's a Certificate of Irish Heritage for those that want to acknowledge their Irish ancestry but don't qualify for an Irish passport.
It doesn't help with emigration but some of the new Alt Right parties are trying to bring in an easier route for Irish Diaspora to emigrate here.

Oh, I will look into that! I'm jealous...LOL! that dh is an Irish citizen because his father was born there, and our children are getting theirs. In fact our youngest is moving permanently to Dublin in January. But my closest Irish ancestor is my great-grandmother.

We won't move to Ireland because our grands are here, but I'd like to be even an honorary member of the club.

ETA: Apparently the Irish government abandoned the scheme in 2015 due to low interest.

Of course there are lots of companies that will print something up for you...LOL!

 

[Plain Jane]

Ireland votes in a close-run election where incumbents hope to cling on to power

Ireland is voting in a parliamentary election that will decide the next government. It also will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of incumbents being ousted by disgruntled voters.

apnews.com

Ireland votes in a close-run election where incumbents hope to cling on to power​

By JILL LAWLESS and PETER MORRISON
Updated 8:43 AM EST, November 29, 2024

DUBLIN (AP) — Ireland is voting Friday in a parliamentary election that will decide the next government — and will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of incumbents being ousted by disgruntled voters after years of pandemic, international instability and a cost-of-living pressures.

Polls opened at 7 a.m.. (0700GMT), and Ireland’s 3.8 million voters are selecting 174 lawmakers to sit in the Dail, the lower house of parliament.

Here’s a look at the parties, the issues and the likely outcome.

Who’s running?​

The outgoing government was led by the two parties who have dominated Irish politics for the past century: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. They have similar center-right policies but are longtime rivals with origins on opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war.

After the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat they formed a coalition, agreeing to share Cabinet posts and take turns as taoiseach, or prime minister. Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin served as premier for the first half of the term and was replaced by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar in December 2022. Varadkar unexpectedly stepped down in March, passing the job to current Taoiseach Simon Harris.

Opposition party Sinn Fein achieved a stunning breakthrough in the 2020 election, topping the popular vote, but was shut out of government because Fianna Fail and Fine Gael refused to work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic ties with militant group the Irish Republican Army during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland.

Under Ireland’s system of proportional representation, each of the 43 constituencies elects multiple lawmakers, with voters ranking their preferences. That makes it relatively easy for smaller parties and independent candidates with a strong local following to gain seats.

This election includes a large crop of independent candidates, ranging from local campaigners to far-right activists and reputed crime boss Gerry “the Monk” Hutch.

What are the main issues?​

As in many other countries, the cost of living — especially housing — has dominated the campaign. Ireland has an acute housing shortage, the legacy of failing to build enough new homes during the country’s “Celtic Tiger” boom years and the economic slump that followed the 2008 global financial crisis.

“There was not building during the crisis, and when the crisis receded, offices and hotels were built first,” said John-Mark McCafferty, chief executive of housing and homelessness charity Threshold.

The result is soaring house prices, rising rents and growing homelessness.

After a decade of economic growth, McCafferty said “Ireland has resources” — not least 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in back taxes the European Union has ordered Apple to pay it — “but it is trying to address big historic infrastructural deficits.”

Tangled up with the housing issue is immigration, a fairly recent challenge to a country long defined by emigration. Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by war and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.

This country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have attracted tension and protests. A stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been charged, sparked the worst rioting Ireland had seen in decades.

Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a significant far-right party, but far-right voices on social media seek to drum up hostility to migrants, and anti-immigrant independent candidates are hoping for election in several districts. The issue appears to be hitting support for Sinn Fein, as working-class supporters bristled at its pro-immigration policies.

What’s the likely outcome?​

Opinion polls suggest voters’ support is split into five roughly even chunks — for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, several smaller parties and an assortment of independents.

Fine Gael has run a gaffe-prone campaign, Fianna Fail has remained steady in the polls and Sinn Fein says it has momentum, but is unlikely to win power unless the other parties drop their opposition to working with it.

Analysts say the most likely outcome is another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, possibly with a smaller party or a clutch of independents as kingmakers.

“It’s just a question of which minor group is going to be the group that supports the government this time,” said Eoin O’Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University. “Coalition-forming is about putting a hue on what is essentially the same middle-of-the-road government every time.”

When will we know the results?​

Polls close Friday at 10 p.m. (2200GMT), when an exit poll will give the first hints about the result. Counting ballots begins on Saturday morning. Full results could take several days, and forming a government days or weeks after that.

Harris, who cast his vote in Delgany, south of Dublin, said Irish voters and politicians have “got a long few days ahead of us.”


“Isn’t it the beauty and the complexity of our system that when the clock strikes 10 o’clock tonight, there’ll be an exit poll but that won’t even tell us the outcome of the election,” he said.

___

Lawless reported from London

 

[Melodi]

I wasn't able to vote because my accident was one day too late to apply for an absentee ballot (my housemate tried). She offered to try to wheel me over to the polling station from the nursing home, but I decided vital as it was, keeping my surgical area stable was even more so.

It would be a rocky ride, and I can't get into a regular car seat yet for the same reasons. This will be the second election I have missed since becoming eligible. The first time, the registration got mixed up, and I wasn't listed for the national polling.

There is a lot of fatigue with the current government of Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum (think Republicans and Democrats in the US if they had a uniparty government). But the alternatives are not great. We shall see what happens.

Here, they use paper ballots, and the counting (by hand) doesn't start until tomorrow morning.

 

[mzkitty]

Saw this early this morning:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862504950539927858

View: https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/1862504950539927858

 

[Plain Jane]

Irish general election: Exit poll suggests tight three-way race

Voters have been casting their ballot to choose representatives to serve in the Irish parliament.

www.bbc.com

Tight three-way race in Irish general election, RTÉ exit poll suggests​

Kevin Sharkey and Amy Murray
BBC News NI

BBC
An exit poll in the Republic of Ireland suggests that Sinn Féin has 21.1% of first preference votes with Fine Gael having 21%, making the result of the general election too close to call.

The poll indicates Fianna Fáil has 19.5% of first preference votes.

It also suggests that 20% of the second preference votes goes to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%.

The exit poll was published at 22:00 local time and was carried out by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin. It has a margin of error of 1.4%.

In the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin secured 24.53% first preference votes, while Fianna Fáil obtained 22.18% and Fine Gael got 20.86%.

PA Media
Polls closed at 22:00 local time in The Republic of Ireland's election

Friday's poll indicates Green Party first preference support stands at 4%; Labour at 5%; the Social Democrats at 5.8%; People Before Profit-Solidarity at 3.1% and Independents at 12.7%, Independent Ireland 2.2% with others on 1.9%.

The poll is based on 5,018 completed interviews that were carried out immediately after people voted at polling stations in 43 constituencies across the Republic of Ireland.

What happens now?​

The results from this poll set the scene for the official counting of votes which starts at 09:00 local time on Saturday and is expected to continue across the weekend.

It is possible that some of the 43 constituencies may not have a final result until the beginning of next week.

Successful candidates are known as Teachtaí Dála (TDs) and there are 174 seats to fill, but the Ceann Comhairle (speaker) is returned automatically.

More than 680 candidates competed for the remaining 173 seats.
The number of seats required for an overall majority is 88 but no single party is fielding enough candidates to win a majority on its own.

The first meeting of the new Dáil (lower house of parliament) is on 18 December but it is unlikely coalition negotiations will have finished by then.

A government will be officially formed when the Dáil passes a vote to install a new taoiseach (Irish prime minister).

Few expect the new government to be in place before 2025.

It took four months after the last general election, in 2020, before Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party, reached a deal to form the previous Irish government.

Sinn Féin became the leading opposition party, and both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have both already ruled them out as a potential coalition partner in the event of a similar outcome this election.

The three largest parties are joined in the Dáil by a number of smaller parties and a significant number of independent candidates.

Who are the leading political parties?​

Politics in the Republic was traditionally dominated by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Both parties emerged following a split in nationalist opinion over the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty.

Fianna Fáil was once seen as more centrist, Fine Gael as more conservative, but differences have blurred and both are now seen as centre-right parties.

This year’s election is the first major electoral test for the Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach Simon Harris.

He was new to the role in April, when he became the youngest person to lead the Republic of Ireland at 37 after his predecessor Leo Varadkar stepped down.

Sinn Féin is an Irish republican and democratic socialist party and the main opposition party.

Mary Lou McDonald took over leadership of the party in 2018, and since then the Dublin politician has sought to distance her party from criticism about its historic links to IRA violence.

PA Media
Mary Lou McDonald cast her ballot in Dublin on Friday morning

Sinn Féin made significant gains in 2020 and topped the popular vote, winning 37 seats.

Since then it has become the largest party across Northern Ireland's councils, as well as in its assembly and at Westminster.

Other parties putting forward candidates for the election include Labour, Social Democrats, PBP-Solidarity, Aontú and the newly-formed Independent Ireland.

Gender divides and transfers​

PA Media
Simon Harris brought his family to the polling station in County Wicklow

The exit poll suggests there was a gender divide when it comes to first preference votes.

Figures show 22% of Sinn Féin voters were male, while 20% were female.

The share of male Fine Gael voters in the poll was 20%, while 22% of voters were female.

Fianna Fáil had 19% of male votes, while 20% were female.

In terms of transfers, 39% of Fianna Fáil's second preferences went to a second party candidate, whereas 30% went to a Fine Gael candidate. About 5% of transfers went to Sinn Féin.

The poll also found that about 37% of Fine Gael transfers went to a second candidate, with 32% going to a Fianna Fáil candidate.

'Could be a challenge'​

Analysis by BBC News NI's political editor, Enda McClafferty
Exit polls are far from an exact science, but they are a good indicator of where the votes go.

In 2020, it correctly predicted a close battle between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin and in the end, only three seats separated the parties

If the exit poll is right this time, then Sinn Féin will be pleased with its performance.

Coming in slightly ahead of Fine Gael, but short of the almost 25% Sinn Féin secured in 2020.

The party limped into the election campaign of the back of a series of damaging controversies and poor European and local council elections in June when it secured just 12% of the vote.

Over the three-week campaign, it managed to recover the lost ground with the promise of bringing change.

But delivering on that pledge could be a challenge if the exit poll is right.

It suggests Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5% could return to the government benches, with the help of two smaller parties and some independents.

While Sinn Féin’s path to power is more challenging as it had hoped to lead a coalition of left-leaning parties, it may struggle to get the numbers with the performance of those smaller parties.

But the true picture will only become clear when all results are in.

Leaders go to the polls​

PA Media
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin voted alongside his family in County Cork on Friday

Earlier, Fine Gael leader Simon Harris was the first major party leader to vote.

Harris and his family travelled to Delgany National School in County Wicklow shortly after polls opened at 07:00 local time.

Micheál Martin, the tánaiste (Irish deputy prime minister) and leader of Fianna Fáil, voted with his family at St Anthony's Boys National School in Ballinlough, County Cork.

Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald voted at Deaf Village Ireland on the Navan Road in Dublin.

Things looked a little different for Holly Cairns, leader of the Social Democrats, who gave birth on polling day.

Elsewhere, officials went the extra mile for island inhabitants on polling day.

Presiding Officer Caroline Sharkey and Garda (Irish police officer) Ronan Steede set sail to Gola Island, off the County Donegal coast on the west of Ireland, where 31 registered voters were able to submit their ballots in the living room of one of the islanders.

There will be coverage of the election results on BBC Two NI at 18:00 GMT on Saturday and on BBC One NI on Sunday Politics at 10:00 GMT.

 

[Marthanoir]

Green party are being destroyed