WEATHER Invest 91L Now T/D 1 Tropical Weather Update

[Jarhead]

Well, here we go.......

Disturbance 91L spins towards Cape Hatteras;


An area of disturbed weather, dubbed "91L" by the National Hurricane Center, is centered 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

While the storm does not have much in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity, it does have a well-developed circulation, and the spin of the system is readily apparent on long range radar animations out of Morehead City, North Carolina.

The disturbance is over waters of 25 - 26°C and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until Thursday afternoon, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development.

The disturbance will track north or north-northeastward at 10 - 15 mph towards North Carolina's Outer Banks today, then get swept northeastwards out to sea on Thursday. It is unlikely that the disturbance has enough time to develop into a tropical depression, but an Air Force hurricane hunter flight is on call to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

If the system does develop, the current location of the heaviest thunderstorm activity in a band well removed from the center suggests that 91L would be classified as a subtropical depression. The Outer Banks of North Carolina can expect 20 - 25 mph winds and heavy rain from this system tonight and Thursday morning.

In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.

(Weather Underground)

Jarhead

 

[Jarhead]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272348
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (91L)CENTERED
ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA IS
DECREASING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE COAST AROUND 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT OR SO. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING COOLER
OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS SYSTEM. SEE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

Jarhead

 

[Sysman]

Ah yes, that time of year again...

Love your work Jarhead. I expect that you'll continue your excellent reputation of keeping us well informed on such events...

 

[Jarhead]

We'll do our best.

Jarhead

 

[momof23goats]

Now is there a slight chance this could go into washington DC. I mean one could hope and pray right?

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND
ABOUT 565 MILES...905 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE OVER COLDER
WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.7N 69.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009

...DEPRESSION TURNS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND
AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...38.1N 67.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

[Jarhead]

Sat. Image and ensemble models..........
/

 

[Sysman]

Bye Bye New Jersey...

 

[Jarhead]

Bye Bye New Jersey...

he he........

Jarhead

 

[Jarhead]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST FRI MAY 29 2009

...DEPRESSION LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER HAS ENOUGH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...29
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...40.3N 62.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN



...______________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________

000
AXNT20 KNHC 292310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE CENTERED NEAR 40.3N
62.3W AT 29/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX
NOVA SCOTIA MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
38N-40N BETWEEN 58W-60W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS...WHICH CONTAINS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
ALSO...CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

ADDITIONALLY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
INDICATES THAT A NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM IS ALONG 19W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS FEATURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-8N
BETWEEN 17W-22W. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLONIC
MOTION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DO
NOT YET CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT THE SURFACE
NEAR THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS SUSPECTED TO BE
PRESENT HERE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 1N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W EXTENDING TO 1S43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN
17W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 4N BETWEEN
24W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE N GULF AND EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO 27N89W TO 25N95W. ALSO...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N86W TO 22N91W ACROSS THE SW GULF
TO 19N93W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-27N E OF 88W. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST AND WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
ACROSS THE N GULF TO THE N OF THE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OCCURRING WHERE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ARE PRESENT. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE YUCATAN COAST THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR...ARE RESULTING IN
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...PANAMA...AND NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING.
ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF
68W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 72W INCLUDING
THE NW BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT INLAND
LOCATIONS OF FLORIDA. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE NW OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR
25N56W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN
62W-67W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO
26N65W. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NE OF THE DISCUSSION REGION TO 32N28W TO 28N33W TO 28N36W
CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N40W TO 28N45W.
ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N56W TO 22N58W. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONTS...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
30N45W AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY
AND HAVE A PRESSURE OF 1023 MB AT 30/1800 UTC. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS. ACROSS THE E
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT WHERE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IS OCCURRING AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT S OF 12N E OF
52W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 8N26W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
48W/49W S OF 9N...AS WELL AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-9W.

$$
COHEN