ALERT Hurricane Sandy

T

The Traveler

Veteran Member
Tropical Storm Sandy is moving towards Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches are out for the Southeast Coast of Florida and the Keys. This storm could become a noreaster and create problems for the North East this coming weekend. This is just a heads up...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241156
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 76.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS JAMAICA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES JAMAICA AND CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA THIS
MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF HAITI BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUBA BY
THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...THE UPPER KEYS...AND FLORIDA BAY BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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T

The Traveler

Veteran Member
000
WTNT33 KNHC 241501
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN
JAMAICA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
1

11:58

Inactive
Traveler...
I don't post much...so take it for what it's worth...This storm is looking alot like the last "Storm of the Century" we had up this way...
I'm up in Maine...
 
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Wildweasel

Wildweasel

F-4 Phantoms Phorever
If what our local weather talking heads have said is true, it could be one for the record books. Forecasts are showing the storm getting off the coast of New England and merging with a mass of cold air coming across the Great Lakes behind a front. The words "hurricane" and "snow" are not usually never in the same forecast, but they are for this weekend in upstate NY and northern PA.

Before Sandy came into the picture, talk was that we could get a little snow from just the front coming across. Now with things looking like the front and the hurricane are going to interact, it may be something major happening.

Given that most trees have all dropped their leaves around here, it makes me wonder if Mother Nature doesn't know something is going to happen with this situation.

WW
 
T

The Traveler

Veteran Member
11:58 said:
Traveler...
I don't post much...so take it for what it's worth...This storm is looking alot like the last "Storm of the Century" we had up this way...
I'm up in Maine...
Click to expand...

Yes, over at Storm2k, they are talking about it being like the 91 storm when Grace met up with a cold front and well we know the rest of the story. I hope it misses us here in Florida and you fine folks up there too.
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Hurricane Sandy approaches southeastern coast of Jamaica - @NHC_Atlantic

4 mins ago from www.nhc.noaa.gov by editor

------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241751
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THE GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA OR EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 32 MPH...52 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...82 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/241751.shtml?
 
Wise Owl

Wise Owl

Deceased
Carp, that's about all we need up here in the NE is a Nor'easter...... Well, at least I have the outside garden stuff about wrapped up. Just need to trim back the oregano and one more spot to check for large stones and branches where we have to snowblow in the winter.
A Nor'easter comes along, we will be picking up MORE branches.....sigh.

This thing can head out to sea like right now........go east Sandy, go east........
 
OKC08GT500

OKC08GT500

Contributing Member
Our weatherman is saying that this storm will be "one for the ages." It has the potential to be one of those once-in-a-lifetime storms that meteorologists dream about. Make sure you have the fuel you need for your generators.
 
WildDaisy

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
New model runs have landfall closer to Cape May, however, everywhere from MD to ME is still fair game as this storm is tracked.

The "middle" of the road is NYC.

Range of forecast is "severe Nor'Easter, to "Storm of the Century". Many on the Meterologist boards at Accuweather are likening it to the 1991 "Perfect Storm" (as in the one the movie was based off of) and the 1938 Hurricane that devastated New England.

If NYC is hit, it would be catastrophic in terms of flooding. An economic disaster.
 
Jonas Parker

Jonas Parker

Hooligan
The Traveler said:
Yes, over at Storm2k, they are talking about it being like the 91 storm when Grace met up with a cold front and well we know the rest of the story. I hope it misses us here in Florida and you fine folks up there too.
Click to expand...

Oh joy! A classmate of mine at DINFOS a month later was the 1st LT on the cutter that rescued that ANG blackhawk crew when they went down in the middle of "the perfect storm". His stories of that storm made me happy to head back to the Great Lakes. May God bless all in the path of this mess.
 
LightEcho

LightEcho

Has No Life - Lives on TB
May it churn into Washington DC and rip apart the halls of corruption, flood the bunkers of the chief criminals and expose the lawless ones.
 
Caver78

Caver78

Contributing Member
We expected to get hit in September since we usually do, but it's a blessing most of the leaves are finally down now! Am stocked up to beat the weekend rush so hopefully it'sll swing east and this will all have been for nothing.
 
1

11:58

Inactive
There is a fameous weather "boo boo" that happened here in central Maine back in the 60s...WABI channel 5...the weather man was Kerry Haskil...i think..he called for flurries....what we got was a blocking force of cold air just above the gulf of Maine and a storm that made the run up the east coast...when it was done and the roads plowed...you could stand on the banks and touch the top of a phone pole..
 
Last edited:
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
11:58 said:
There is a fameous weather "boo boo" that happened here in central Maine back in the 60s...WABI channel 5...the weather man was Kerry Haskil...i think..he called for flurries....what we got was a blocking force of cold air just above the gulf of Maine and a storm that made the run up the east coast...when it was done and the roads plowed...you could stand on the banks and touch the top of a phone pole..
Click to expand...

And the opposite happens. I remember once in the early 70's EVERY forecaster had breaking news that a blizzard was bearing down. Almost every business in the city thereupon closed. It was 1 PM, and everybody's scrambling to get home. You got it -- no blizzard. LOL. This was before radar though. So nobody ever believed the weather guys after that.
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
@NWSKeyWest tweeted:

The eye of Hurricane #Sandy made landfall near Kingston, Jamaica, at approximately 300 pm EDT. Max winds were estimated at 80 mph. #flwx

37 mins ago from twitter.com by editor
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Yes the 1991 storm was the one in the book and movie "The Perfect Storm" that killed the fishing boat crew. The book was by Junger and the movie, with George Clooney if I remember correctly wasn't too bad either.

There is a long history of storms moving up the "long island slot." One did that in 1938 I think and did a lot of damage. There are several hurricane forecast models in use. The one the National Hurricane Center is using shows Sandy hooking out to sea, but the European model tells a different story. It has Sandy being pulled inland in response to a Mid West weather pattern in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame. And if, repeat if, that happens then you will get a westward movement, towards land and not out to sea, plus you will get a straight north movement. Obviously, if Sandy goes west towards either north carolina or Virginia, and then straight north you will get a direct hit on Washington DC. If it doesn't head as far west then you will get coastal impacts all the way up the east coast. It will hit landfall in Long Island, like in 1938, or Boston like 1991.

This storm has the capacity to do a lot of damage, depending on how the actual tracks play out. Irene also was "only" a Cat 1 hurricane and it did MASSIVE damage due to flooding etc. Vermont was actually sealed off when all the roads were impassable.

It is late in the year for Hurricanes. The season ends November 30th. However, there is historical precedent for Massive storms/hurricanes/nor easters to hit around Halloween. It has happened before.
 
T

The Traveler

Veteran Member
It doesnt look like she lost much steam over Jamaica. She is to jog to the nw later then back so any movement west puts the east side of Florida closer to the storm. October storms are hard to predict but the models over the next 24 hours are pretty much in alignment.


BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES
OVER EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY
MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN
CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
P

Publius

TB Fanatic
Right now the time lapse satellite imagery is showing it moving toward Cuba and Texas after that, this is subject to change but thats how it looks as of now.
 
Wildweasel

Wildweasel

F-4 Phantoms Phorever
Local forecast just said that the storm may slow and make landfall around Boston Monday to Tuesday and then head WEST along a Cnandian/Arctic cold front, ending up around Syracuse, NY on Halloween.

I don't want to think about how much badness than possibility could end up causing. I may go buy a new snowblower instead of the new ObamaGun I've been thinking about.

WW
 
mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Wildweasel said:
Local forecast just said that the storm may slow and make landfall around Boston Monday to Tuesday and then head WEST along a Cnandian/Arctic cold front, ending up around Syracuse, NY on Halloween.

I don't want to think about how much badness than possibility could end up causing. I may go buy a new snowblower instead of the new ObamaGun I've been thinking about.

WW
Click to expand...

Oh swell. That means me too then; I'm west of Syracuse.
 
SIRR1

SIRR1

Deceased
Wildweasel you could invent a new word for the NWS.

Snowcane or Hurrasnow...

Warm moist tropical rain mixing with a cold front that here in St. Louis will put the lows Friday morning in the low 30's!

I am not sure how cold the East Coast will get when Sandy rolls by but it sounds scary!

Just stay safe what ever happens!



BTW how come no one posted hurricane maps this season like in previous years here at TB2K with tracking and radar?

Were they banned by management here?

SIRR1
 
knepper

knepper

Veteran Member
This is weird, but I was watching Sid Roth last night, and the guest mentioned the perfect storm. He was talking about how often natural disasters happen here in the US right after a President tries to divide Israel, or Jerusalem. It seems that the Perfect Storm happened on the same day that Pres. H.W. Bush was proposing a plan that would have divided Israel, as his solution to the Palestinian problem. The Perfect Storm hit the Maine coast and destroyed Bush's Kennebunkport house.
He had many other similar examples.
 
SIRR1

SIRR1

Deceased
Sandy's storm centered radar image

Current Sat pics
 

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mzkitty

mzkitty

I give up.
Jamaica Public Service: 70% of customers without power - @JamaicaObserver

1 min ago from www.jamaicaobserver.com by editor

-------

Wednesday, October 24, 2012 | 5:48 PM

KINGSTON, Jamaica- The Jamaica Public Service has reported that approximately seventy per cent of its customer base is currently without electricity as Hurricane Sandy passes across the island.

The severe weather conditions, which include strong winds and steady rainfall, have resulted in downed poles and lines particularly in the parishes of Portland, St Mary, St Ann, St Thomas, St James, Westmoreland and Hanover.

JPS says its technical teams will remain on standby to respond to emergency reports such as fire calls as long as the weather conditions permit.

However, the company advises that if conditions worsen, it may not be able to continue deploying its teams.

Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/JPS-says-70--of-customers-without-power#ixzz2AGONNfTT
 
L

lassiesma

Senior Member
Wildweasel said:
Local forecast just said that the storm may slow and make landfall around Boston Monday to Tuesday and then head WEST along a Cnandian/Arctic cold front, ending up around Syracuse, NY on Halloween.

I don't want to think about how much badness than possibility could end up causing. I may go buy a new snowblower instead of the new ObamaGun I've been thinking about.

WW
Click to expand...

mzkitty said:
Oh swell. That means me too then; I'm west of Syracuse.
Click to expand...

NWS forecast out of WNY. (I am just throwing in the long range relevant part. At least the forecaster has a sense of humor. #3 had me laughing.)

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=BUFAFDBUF&versions=10


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS A PRIME CASE FOR NOT
LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL MODEL OUTPUT AND INSTEAD FOCUSING ON ENSEMBLE
DATA. NOT ONLY THAT...IN THIS CASE YOU CANNOT RELY ON ENSEMBLE
MEANS...BUT YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT EACH OF THE MEMBERS AND WATCH FOR
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE-MEMBER-PREFERRED SOLUTIONS. I HAVE RARELY SEEN
SUCH A PERFECT CASE FOR CHAOS THEORY SO WILLINGLY SHOWING ITS UGLY
FACE...WITH FINELY TUNED MODELS PRODUCING SUCH EXTREME OUTCOMES.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INFINITE SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENTLY EVOLVING
PATTERN...IN GENERAL IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
IMPRESSIVE-TO-EXTREME TROPICAL-TO-EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE THAT
WILL HAVE PAPERS WRITTEN ABOUT IT IN YEARS TO COME. IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER EACH OF THE VARYING SOLUTIONS....BUT WE CAN
ROUGHLY BREAK IT DOWN INTO THREE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES:

1 - SANDY MOVES INLAND...BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL WHILE ITS REMNANT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO SOMEWHERE WITHIN NYS. THIS PRODUCES
A WHOLE BUNCH OF RARE FORECAST ISSUES...WITH HEAVY RAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW...AND A NE WIND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

2 - SANDY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE OR
AFTER LANDFALL...BUT A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORCES NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT
INLAND WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DYING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS TOO
WOULD PRODUCE AN ELEVATION SNOW EVENT...WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME WIND TOO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

3 - SANDY MOVES HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA AND BECOMES A FANTASTIC FISH
STORM. ANOTHER SYSTEM EVOLVES AND SPREADS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...OR MAYBE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT EVEN EXIST.

WITH SUCH WILDLY VARYING SOLUTIONS...WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO
FORECAST A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ON THE COOL TO COLD SIDE COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
 
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