Upgraded to TS.
WEATHER Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter Millwright
- Start date
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
We could possibly get some rain in parts of Iowa from this system, and we need it right now.
5 day precip.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Look at all of that red and burgandy off of the coast of Florida and Georgia
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter measured peak 925-mb
flight-level winds of 52 kt to the northeast of the center, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. Dropsonde data also
indicated that the central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Very
recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite
imagery indicate that the center has become better defined. Based
on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm
Helene at this time.
Helene is moving a little faster toward the northwest (310/10 kt)
as it moves around a mid-level area of high pressure located over
Florida and the Southeastern U.S. The high is expected to slide
eastward through Wednesday as a deep-layer trough digs southward
over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern evolution should
cause the system to turn northward and north-northeastward late
Wednesday into Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future.
Satellite trends suggest that the shear over the system is
beginning to decrease, and model guidance continues to show
relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so. In
addition, oceanic heat content values are very high, and the system
will be moving through an environment of upper-level divergence.
Therefore, significant strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC
intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity
around 100 kt in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There could be some increase in shear around the time the system
reaches the coast, given the system's large size, it might only
weaken slowly. As a result, there is still a risk that the system
could reach the coast as a major hurricane.
Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with
hurricane conditions possible.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from
life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds
continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in
effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides
across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally
considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida,
with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the
Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding
will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter measured peak 925-mb
flight-level winds of 52 kt to the northeast of the center, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. Dropsonde data also
indicated that the central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Very
recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite
imagery indicate that the center has become better defined. Based
on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm
Helene at this time.
Helene is moving a little faster toward the northwest (310/10 kt)
as it moves around a mid-level area of high pressure located over
Florida and the Southeastern U.S. The high is expected to slide
eastward through Wednesday as a deep-layer trough digs southward
over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern evolution should
cause the system to turn northward and north-northeastward late
Wednesday into Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future.
Satellite trends suggest that the shear over the system is
beginning to decrease, and model guidance continues to show
relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so. In
addition, oceanic heat content values are very high, and the system
will be moving through an environment of upper-level divergence.
Therefore, significant strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC
intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity
around 100 kt in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There could be some increase in shear around the time the system
reaches the coast, given the system's large size, it might only
weaken slowly. As a result, there is still a risk that the system
could reach the coast as a major hurricane.
Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with
hurricane conditions possible.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from
life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds
continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in
effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides
across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally
considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida,
with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the
Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding
will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
GingerN
Veteran Member
I just got this list of counties in Ga, Alabama and Florida that one of the insurance companies we write for has put under binding restrictions due to this storm.
Alabama
Baldwin, Barbour, Chambers, Clarke, Covington, Escambia, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Lee, Mobile, Monroe, Russell, Washington
Florida
Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Citrus, Clay, Columbia, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, St Johns, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, Washington
Georgia
Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Baldwin, Ben Hill, Berrien, Bibb, Bleckley, Brantley, Brooks, Bryan, Bulloch, Burke, Butts, Calhoun, Camden, Candler, Charlton, Chatham, Chattahoochee, Clay, Clinch, Coffee, Colquitt, Columbia, Cook, Crawford, Crisp, Decatur, Dodge, Dooly, Dougherty, Early, Echols, Effingham, Emanuel, Evans, Glascock, Glynn, Grady, Hancock, Harris, Houston, Irwin, Jasper, Jeff Davis, Jefferson, Jenkins, Johnson, Jones, Lamar, Lanier, Laurens, Lee, Liberty, Long, Lowndes, Macon, Marion, McDuffie, McIntosh, Meriwether, Miller, Mitchell, Monroe, Montgomery, Muscogee, Peach, Pierce, Pike, Pulaski, Putnam, Quitman, Randolph, Richmond, Schley, Screven, Seminole, Spalding, Stewart, Sumter, Talbot, Tattnall, Taylor, Telfair, Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Toombs, Treutlen, Troup, Turner, Twiggs, Upson, Ware, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Webster, Wheeler, Wilcox, Wilkinson, Worth
Alabama
Baldwin, Barbour, Chambers, Clarke, Covington, Escambia, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Lee, Mobile, Monroe, Russell, Washington
Florida
Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Citrus, Clay, Columbia, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, St Johns, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, Washington
Georgia
Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Baldwin, Ben Hill, Berrien, Bibb, Bleckley, Brantley, Brooks, Bryan, Bulloch, Burke, Butts, Calhoun, Camden, Candler, Charlton, Chatham, Chattahoochee, Clay, Clinch, Coffee, Colquitt, Columbia, Cook, Crawford, Crisp, Decatur, Dodge, Dooly, Dougherty, Early, Echols, Effingham, Emanuel, Evans, Glascock, Glynn, Grady, Hancock, Harris, Houston, Irwin, Jasper, Jeff Davis, Jefferson, Jenkins, Johnson, Jones, Lamar, Lanier, Laurens, Lee, Liberty, Long, Lowndes, Macon, Marion, McDuffie, McIntosh, Meriwether, Miller, Mitchell, Monroe, Montgomery, Muscogee, Peach, Pierce, Pike, Pulaski, Putnam, Quitman, Randolph, Richmond, Schley, Screven, Seminole, Spalding, Stewart, Sumter, Talbot, Tattnall, Taylor, Telfair, Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Toombs, Treutlen, Troup, Turner, Twiggs, Upson, Ware, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Webster, Wheeler, Wilcox, Wilkinson, Worth
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Proud Infidel...............and Cracker
PLAN: Chronological list of things that WILL NOT HAPPEN that way.
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Proud Infidel...............and Cracker
PLAN: Chronological list of things that WILL NOT HAPPEN that way.
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
I saw a YT broadcaster showing charts with 15-foot storm surge potentials on the east Florida coast... 
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
today
yesterday
minimum
maximum
weather
Corpus Christi
85.5°F
85.8°F
79°F
88.2°F
84.2°F
Galveston
85.1°F
85.3°F
77.9°F
88.2°F
82.4°F
Havana
86.9°F
87.1°F
82°F
87.6°F
86°F
Key West
87.4°F
88°F
82.9°F
88.2°F
86°F
Naples
87.6°F
88°F
82°F
89.1°F
91.4°F
Pensacola
84°F
84°F
79°F
88.7°F
89.6°F
Tampa
86.4°F
86.5°F
81.7°F
87.8°F
89.6°F
Tampico
87.3°F
87.4°F
81.5°F
87.4°F
89.6°F
Veracruz
87.6°F
88°F
82.2°F
88.3°F
80.6°F
yesterday
minimum
maximum
weather
Corpus Christi
85.5°F
85.8°F
79°F
88.2°F
84.2°F
Galveston
85.1°F
85.3°F
77.9°F
88.2°F
82.4°F
Havana
86.9°F
87.1°F
82°F
87.6°F
86°F
Key West
87.4°F
88°F
82.9°F
88.2°F
86°F
Naples
87.6°F
88°F
82°F
89.1°F
91.4°F
Pensacola
84°F
84°F
79°F
88.7°F
89.6°F
Tampa
86.4°F
86.5°F
81.7°F
87.8°F
89.6°F
Tampico
87.3°F
87.4°F
81.5°F
87.4°F
89.6°F
Veracruz
87.6°F
88°F
82.2°F
88.3°F
80.6°F
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
LIVE STREAM - Reed Timmer
LIVE EMERGENCY UPDATE ON A CAT 3+ HURRICANE HELENE HEADING FOR FLORIDA!
This is a live emergency update on the latest with Tropical Storm #Helene that is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major #hurricane on approach to the Nature Coast of Florida! We break down the latest forecast models and any shifts in the track. Right now, the National Hurricane Center shows landfall of a category 3 Hurricane Helene on Thursday evening in Apalachee Bay north of Cedar Key, Florida.night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
DANG! Table didn't create. STILL those are some ROCKIN' HOT WATERS!!!
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
I didn't realize that those were water temps, wow.
oops
Veteran Member
The creek that winds through the farm is barely runnin…the rocks let ya drive across both crossings without gettin in the water…’93 was a lil worse…just hope it we get rain soon…
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
CAT IV in our better dreams.
She could make it up into NIGHTMARE country.....
She could make it up into NIGHTMARE country.....
foreverkeeps
Veteran Member
Oh man
Chicken Mama
Veteran Member
crap the county that I am in is on the list
Sacajawea
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Didn't you get those 3 storms in two weeks AFTER Debby came through? Terrible torrential rains for at least an hour 3 times. We did; still repairing damage and improving drainage to account for that much water at once.
temporary restrictions on new policies????maybe
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Means people without insurance can't suddenly run to their insurance agent 24 hours before a storm like this and try to get their house/car/business insured.
Can't "bind" a new policy.
Sort of like people who decide to board up their windows after it starts blowing 60 mph........
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Metro Atlanta counties not in the list..............yet...............
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Is Ryan Hall up yet? Or conserving his strength until tomorrow or Thursday?
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
It's hard to keep up with two different hurricane threads--especially since this looks to be a seriously BAD one, and many of our members are in its path.
Millwright or other mods---any way we can designate all Helene-related posts to one thread or the other? This one, or the general "tropical storm" thread Millwright started in June?
We're going to be getting LOTS of posts from members in its path as it nears, and just seems to me it would be better if they were all in one place.
Thanks.
Millwright or other mods---any way we can designate all Helene-related posts to one thread or the other? This one, or the general "tropical storm" thread Millwright started in June?
We're going to be getting LOTS of posts from members in its path as it nears, and just seems to me it would be better if they were all in one place.
Thanks.
bw
Fringe Ranger
Got to pace himself ...
rob0126
Veteran Member
Blacknarwhal
Let's Go Brandon!
A hurricane's GOT to be tough to get all the way into Michigan.
We can use the rain, certainly. That also explains why this weekend will have pushing 80 degree temperatures despite it being almost October.
We can use the rain, certainly. That also explains why this weekend will have pushing 80 degree temperatures despite it being almost October.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Thanks! And sorry I was too 'abbreviated'--- by 'up' I meant updates up on YT, not up out of bed......
Sherrynboo
Veteran Member
What are binding restrictions??
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
post 26:
Means people without insurance can't suddenly run to their insurance agent 24 hours before a storm like this and try to get their house/car/business insured.
Can't "bind" a new policy.
Sort of like people who decide to board up their windows after it starts blowing 60 mph........
Sherrynboo
Veteran Member
Ok, I saw the answer after I posted. Thanks Countrymouse I am in one of the listed GA counties.
I am in one of the listed GA counties.
There are areas of N FL that do NOT need another storm. Water is still high from Debby and still recovering in some places from Idalia from last year.
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
ya'll hang in there!Ok, I saw the answer after I posted. Thanks Countrymouse