ALERT High collision risk of two low earth orbit objects

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krf248

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1316147305125490694
View: https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1316147305125490694?s=20


If they collide, Kessler Syndrome is a very real possibility.

Kessler Syndrom
Snip from wiki
The Kessler syndrome (also called the Kessler effect,[1][2] collisional cascading, or ablation cascade), proposed by NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler in 1978, is a theoretical scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) due to space pollution is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade in which each collision generates space debris that increases the likelihood of further collisions.[3] One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space activities and the use of satellites in specific orbital ranges difficult for many generations.[3]
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BadMedicine

BadMedicine

Would *I* Lie???
we're about 10 years away from an army/blanket/ forcefield of drone/ satellites being omnipresent in a grid completely quilting the glob at all layers of LEO. I imagine Foreign object tracking & capture, evasion, or neutralisation will be a built in feature in the new tech.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
..for those who can't see OP..
krf248 said:
If they collide, Kessler Syndrome is a very real possibility.
Kessler Syndrom
Snip from wiki
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LeoLabs, Inc.

@LeoLabs_Space

We are monitoring a very high risk conjunction between two large defunct objects in LEO. Multiple data points show miss distance <25m and Pc between 1% and 20%. Combined mass of both objects is ~2,800kg. Object 1: 19826 Object 2: 36123 TCA: Oct 16 00:56UTC Event altitude: 991km
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
He Who Drinks RP-1
@VelocityR4ptor
4h

Basically there are two large pieces of orbital debris that have a decent chance of colliding in a few days. If they do, it could create a large amount of debris that could go on to hit other, operational satellites and damage or destroy them in turn.

If the two collide it creates a shotgun blast of tiny debris items that can sweep other satellites out of space.

not so much "sweep other satellites out of space" and more like "turn other satellites into orbital shrapnel" forming cascading impact events down the line.






Just A. Tinker
@John_Gardi
5h

Ah, missed that! Thanks! So, that'd be... 8:56 p.m. ET, this Friday night.

 
D

Double_A

TB Fanatic
jward said:
Oh I gots lots of pics of you : )
Selkie? If you mean selfie, I'll have to load up me marshmallow shooter n let lose on ya- coz I have pics online, and sides, everyone knows I'm always complainin' bout not being able to grow out me beard :jstr:
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Spelling is correct, Selkie
 
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glennb6

Inactive
humans and all our stuff inhabit a tiny percentage of the earths surface. water is what - 80% or so, the remaining 20% is land we inhabit about 10-15% of that max. not being a math guy but knowing that satalites float around a number to many miles above the earth. that means the total area they occupy is far less than at surface level. and, sats float around on multiple level, low earth, high earth, geosync, and all in between.

ok, some day something will collide, but the likelyhood is exponentially smaller than what we face on the surface.
Writers have to write catchy things about something eh?
 
K

krf248

Inactive
glennb6 said:
humans and all our stuff inhabit a tiny percentage of the earths surface. water is what - 80% or so, the remaining 20% is land we inhabit about 10-15% of that max. not being a math guy but knowing that satalites float around a number to many miles above the earth. that means the total area they occupy is far less than at surface level. and, sats float around on multiple level, low earth, high earth, geosync, and all in between.

ok, some day something will collide, but the likelyhood is exponentially smaller than what we face on the surface.
Writers have to write catchy things about something eh?
Click to expand...
Absolutely, and Thursday the probability is 1-20% which is quite a bit higher than a normal day
 
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Breeta

Breeta

Veteran Member
jward said:
He Who Drinks RP-1
@VelocityR4ptor
4h

Basically there are two large pieces of orbital debris that have a decent chance of colliding in a few days. If they do, it could create a large amount of debris that could go on to hit other, operational satellites and damage or destroy them in turn.

If the two collide it creates a shotgun blast of tiny debris items that can sweep other satellites out of space.

not so much "sweep other satellites out of space" and more like "turn other satellites into orbital shrapnel" forming cascading impact events down the line.






Just A. Tinker
@John_Gardi
5h

Ah, missed that! Thanks! So, that'd be... 8:56 p.m. ET, this Friday night.

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Actually 00:56 UTC Oct 16th is 8:56pm ET THURSDAY night...

eastern time is -4 hours UTC so it’d be Oct 15th at 8:56pm ET
 
IceWave

IceWave

Veteran Member
glennb6 said:
humans and all our stuff inhabit a tiny percentage of the earths surface. water is what - 80% or so, the remaining 20% is land we inhabit about 10-15% of that max. not being a math guy but knowing that satalites float around a number to many miles above the earth. that means the total area they occupy is far less than at surface level. and, sats float around on multiple level, low earth, high earth, geosync, and all in between.

ok, some day something will collide, but the likelyhood is exponentially smaller than what we face on the surface.
Writers have to write catchy things about something eh?
Click to expand...

The sky is a pretty open space too and yet mid-air collisions aren't unheard off.
 
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