Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

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Extreme Weather

Australia’s Colder-Than-Average Winter; Iceland’s “Historically Cold” Summer; + Antarctica Plunges To -80.5C (-112.9F)​

September 5, 2022 Cap Allon

Australia’s Colder-Than-Average Winter

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology isn’t a reliable source, their ‘warm-mongering’ forecasts are routinely proven wrong.
This is because the agency appears hellbent on inflating temperatures. They do this by, 1) ignoring the Urban Heat Island effect, and 2) limiting the minimum temperature readings that certain weather stations can reach — artificially boosting the averages.
Still, despite the ‘inflating’, despite the BoM claiming that Australia experienced a warmer-than-average month of August, the continent’s winter ‘officially’ finished -0.03C below than the multidecadal norm (below the 1991-2020 base, to be exact).
The chill has continued into spring, too.
In recent days, long-standing low temperature records have been toppled across the country — from East to West:




Note the recently fallen rainfall records at the top of the chart, too.
Rainfall in August finished 34% above the average:



–A reality that once again jars with what ‘The Science’ foretold.
In 2007, professional climate alarmist Tim Flannery claimed: “Even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams.”



Beinsure
@Beinsure3
The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has estimated that $5.28 billion is the cost of this year’s floods across South-East Queensland and northern New South Wales Insurers estimates that $5.3 bn is the cost of floods in Australia https://t.co/mPYfIo6isS
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7:23 AM · Aug 30, 2022
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Flannery also said this…



…with the below being the reality–and at the close of the summer melt season 2022, no less.


Arctic Sea Ice Volume/Thickness–a better measurement that extent–has held within the normal range all year and has witnessed a stark increase compared to 2019, 2020 and 2021 to stand at the highest level since 2008.


[DMI]

It’s been holding anomalously-cold across the Arctic’s southern cousin, too — the Antarctic.

On Friday, a low of -80.5C (-112.9F) was achieved at Dome Fuji AWS — the coldest temperature of 2022 globally, and a reading not too far off the station’s coldest temperature ever recorded: the -83C (-117.4F) set on September 13, 2015.



Stefano Di Battista
@pinturicchio_60
The annual world record of cold was set today (September 2) at 14:17 UTC with -80.5 °C. The value was achevied at Dome Fuji AWS, Antarctica, located at 3 810 m above sea level The absolute minimum in this semi-permanent station is -83.0 °C reached on September 13, 2015 https://t.co/yz8V8OXGYD
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5:47 PM · Sep 2, 2022
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The AGW hypothesis has failed.

This is clear for all to see but remains impossible for the indoctrinated to perceive.

Equally as apparent: A new hypothesis is needed.


Iceland’s “Historically Cold” Summer

According to a recent communication from the Meteorological Office of Iceland, and as reported by icelandreview.com, this year’s summer has been historically cold.

The season’s highest temperature at Reykjavík, for example, was just 17.9C (64.2F), registered on June 10 — this was the capital’s lowest maximum summer temperature since 2001.

Across the country, there were 27 days when the temperature exceeded 20C (68F), far fewer that the 57 logged last year.



Persistent snowfall has also been a theme, with accumulations noted in June, July and August — a very rare feat.

Iceland’s cold and snow summer has also led to well-below average glacier melt–similar to Greenland–which is actually on course to translate to a net mass balance gain:



For more on Greenland:




That’ll be it for now. I have a hard day of prepping planned on our homestead here in Central Portugal — planting out brassica starts etc. Winter is fast approaching and I have a long list of jobs to work through.

We also lost one of our guinea fowl to an Egyptian eagle this morning–despite our little dog’s best efforts–so that mess needs sorting, too. The joys of self-sufficiency. But I wouldn’t change a thing. As the world around us continues to fall apart we, as a family, have never been so content and healthy–both physically and mentally (can’t say the same for the guinea, mind).

Also, I’m looking into cheap back-up off-grid heating solutions — the ‘candle and terracotta pot’ seems a viable option…

Thoughts?

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
If you are in a northern state, a candle and terra-cotta pot isn’t going to cut the mustard...
the most efficient natural fuel heating system I have yet to find is a rocket stove mass heater. Popular in the northwest (Oregon and Washington State), and those who have built them claim to drop their wood use by at least half to one quarter from their previous use of typical wood stoves.

in addition I would highly recommend buying 2” thick foil-faced insulation panels and cutting them accurately to fit finger tight in the door and window spaces, -after taping the edges with “Ziptape” 4” wide tape from Home Depot to protect your fingers from the sharp foil edges, and make tabs with the same tape placed about halfway between the top and bottom of the panels so you can pull them out from the window or door spaces during the day to let light in. In fact I use mine in the summer too, to keep the heat from the sun out of the house.
 

alpha

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Christchurch Sees Its First Flurries In A Decade As Rare Spring Snow Sweeps New Zealand; Europe’s Energy Woes Intensify As Russia Cuts Off Nord Stream; + AGW Is For Dummies​

September 6, 2022 Cap Allon

Christchurch Sees Its First Flurries In A Decade, As Rare Spring Snow Sweeps New Zealand

Spring is delivering substantial sea-level snow to New Zealand this week, with flakes settling in Christchurch, Dunedin and even Wellington–conditions driven by a fierce polar front powering its way up country.
Christchurch’s snow dusted the city until 6:30am Tuesday, and was its first in almost a decade. MetService said flurries accumulated all the way to sea level, with some even settling on New Brighton Beach: a “special occasion” for the city.
“Winter’s over, but the atmosphere does what it likes,” said meteorologist Alwyn Bakker, who ads that the out-of-season chill was due to a “big cold snap pushing up from the south”. Other urban centers like Dunedin and Masterton also saw flurries throughout the night, continued Bakker, while snow in places like Clutha and Southland fell “almost down to sea level”.
Schools started late in Dunedin after multiple key roads were closed due to the inclement conditions which included black ice.
Rare dustings were noted in Wellington, too, with heavier falls reported on the surrounding hill suburbs, including Karori which saw the snow stick around — a rare feat: “It was just freezing,” said local Suzie Finnigan. “I’ve never had snow before”.





MetService
@MetService

⛄ It's snowing in Karori! ❄ We're currently receiving reports of snow from some of the higher Wellington suburbs, including Johnsonville and Churton Park! People of #Wellington, send us your footage of what the sky's up to wherever you are! ❤ https://t.co/ay2f8swe2M


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6:25 PM · Sep 5, 2022
Higher still, Canterbury’s Mt Hutt Ski Area registered close to 20cm (8 inches) of powder on Monday: “It is bitterly cold up here this morning with a wind chill of -26C (-14.8F) at the summit so dress for mid-winter conditions,” the Area told skiers.





Snow Forecast.com
@SnowForecast

A great day on New Zealand's slopes with up to 20cm (8") of fresh snowfall reported, low temps and blue skies. @MtHutt https://t.co/NKf6i9dMI6


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2:47 AM · Sep 6, 2022
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The sun is now prevailing for many, although temperatures are holding anomalously low.

And a quick word on Australia, spring is refusing to show its face there, too.

Following a colder-than-average winter, the Aussie continent has continued to be buffeted by ‘blues’ and ‘purples’:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 3 – Sept 6 [tropicaltidbits.com]


And it will continue to be buffeted as September rolls on:

Sept 8:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 8 [tropicaltidbits.com]


Sept 16:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 16 [tropicaltidbits.com]


Europe’s Energy Woes Intensify As Russia Cuts Off Nord Stream

European governments are reevaluating their emergency plans following Russia’s decision to keep its main gas pipeline shut indefinitely. The continent’s energy woes are now turning into a full-blown catastrophe, threatening to dwarf the billions of euros of relief on offer for consumers and businesses.

Gas prices surged more than 35% on Monday as traders reacted to Russia’s turning off of the spigots.

The euro slid to its lowest in two decades.

And equities tumbled.

Last week it was announced that Europe’s gas storage sites were being filled quicker than expected. But that was last week. Concerns have now shifted to how winter demand will be handled given the lost flows from Russia.

Germany is now unlikely to meet its target of filling storage sites to 95% by the start of November, and it is feared that a cold autumn would actually eat into supplies before winter-proper has even kicked in.

European energy ministers are set to discuss radical proposals to curb power prices when they hold an emergency meeting on Friday — measures including gas-price caps, a suspension of power derivatives trading, and brownouts/blackouts.


Uniper Bailout

Uniper SE–an energy company based in Düsseldorf–could see its costs to replace missing Russian gas reach 7 billion euros as early as this month. This would force the German government to once again step in, according to the company’s CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach.

“We got the stabilization package from the government, we have agreed with a 7 billion euros backstop to be reached in the fourth quarter, and it will definitely be earlier,” Maubach said. “Most likely we will reach that ceiling in September already.”

Germany’s lack of liquefied natural gas import terminals is making the nation’s energy crisis even more acute, continued Maubach: “In Germany, we don’t have options. We would be able to replace a lion share of Russian gas if we had infrastructure.”

If only Uniper had concentrated on becoming a secure and reliable source of energy for the people, rather than a panderer to suicidally-stupid ‘green ideals’:





Uniper
@uniper_energy

In alignment with #NetZero targets, #energy companies are reinventing themselves as integrated providers, offering lower carbon #EnergySolutions alongside existing products. #Gastech2022 More at this week's @GastechEvent 2022. https://t.co/Zg4EsB6jYa


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2:00 AM · Sep 6, 2022
The German government has decided to keep two of its three remaining nuclear power plants on reserve, reversing a long-planned shutdown of the facilities: “This way, we can act if worst comes to worst,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said, who was keen to ad that the government remains “committed to the nuclear exit”–for reasons unknown, nuclear is about as ‘green’ as humans can currently manage.


Greece Counts on Coal Plants

Elsewhere in Europe, Greece is planning to have all of its coal power stations recommissioned and active so they can be used as a last-resort measure should this winter prove particularly cold, so says Maria Rita Galli, CEO of gas-grid operator Desfa.

Greek gas importers are also permitted to buy-up storage capacity in Italy, because although Greece has plenty of import capacity, the country lacks facilities to store the fuel — more fantastic forward-thinking from logic-devoid politicians.


European Coal Prices Hit Record

Unfortunately for the likes of Greece, the continent’s benchmark coal price rose 7.6% to a record $345/ton on Monday, about three times the price of a year ago.

Year-ahead futures for delivery to the Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp soared after Europe announced its plan to revive dormant coal power plants this winter.

European coal futures hit an all-time high after gas soared

France And The Netherlands Back Windfall Tax

French President Emmanuel Macron backed a EU-wide windfall tax on profits of energy companies, becoming the latest country to support the extraordinary measure to rein in the effects of a deepening crisis.


Also, the Dutch government is working on a plan to make 16 billion euros of funding available to alleviate the burden of high energy prices on its citizens. The package would be financed through a combination of a windfall tax on companies extracting oil and gas, higher income from the Groningen gas field, and a profit-tax increase on small and medium-sized enterprises.


European Solidarity at Risk

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned of a breakdown of European solidarity as supplies tighten this winter.

The central question will be “whether we’ll be able to secure gas supply for all people in Europe or not,” Baerbock said. “We will be put through a hard test by this question,” she continued, warning that a breakdown of European gas solidarity would be a victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Europe shot themselves in the foot, Baerbock. This is not hard to fathom. And the ‘spin’ now required to subdue an increasingly peeved public is some truly next level stuff: “It’s ALL Putin’s fault” goes the nursery rhyme, and people are expected to ignore the fact that energy prices have been on the rise since mid-2020:



Energy Price Index

Global Warming Is For Dummies

Climate research and reporting are now largely conducted within the gutters of scientific integrity.

In recent times, global warming has been blamed for volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and even wars, including the Ukraine and Syria conflicts; it has been claimed that climate change will cause dogs to become depressed, increase the incidence of rape, turn human beings into hobbits, and cause snakes to grow as large as buses; rising CO2 is also responsible for childhood obesity, for making bugs hungrier, for causing the planet itself to become dimmer, and for changing its gravity, too.


This is the flaw with funding any and all studies that support the AGW hypothesis — you will eventually expose the ruse with the sheer volume of nonsensical ‘findings’ — you will eventually snap even the staunchest of climate activists awake due to the wave of stupidity.

The list of this nonsense is virtually endless, yet the main hypothesis can never be falsified — you’re not even permitted to try. Every data point is painfully contorted into conformity within the rigid ideology laid down by the AGW Party. Even cold weather is now symptomatic of a warming climate — and on that point, just wait for this Northern Hemisphere winter to reveal its icy claws, wait for MSM assertions that it’s actually perfectly normal for the number and ferocity of Arctic outbreaks to increase in a warming world — as the legacy media has stated previously, global warming will result in “little snow but large blizzards”, which is an oxy-that-only-a-moron could fall for, if ever I heard one.

This coming winter is on course to be a brutal one…



…but get ready for the mainstream media to try and convince you otherwise.

Watch as they tell the citizens of Europe–in particular–that the invading northerly cold and snow “isn’t all that bad,” that “winters were worse in the early-1900s”, blah-blah-blah, and that blackouts are likely “the new normal” given geopolitical maneuverings and essential strives for Net Zero — this narrative will prevail even as Europeans freeze to death in their homes.

The BBC are already spinning similarly sickening yarns, writing over the weekend that Britons should stop their complaining about spiraling energy bills and instead spare a thought for Ukrainians who are counting the bodies as well as the pennies.

But I’d expect nothing less from such Gates-funded propagandists.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

alpha

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It Is Climate Zealotry, Rather Than Climate Change, That Is Destroying The World​

September 7, 2022 Cap Allon
Climate doom and gloom, like sex, sells — the end of the world is a thrilling prospect, and if you are seen to be working to prevent it, well, you’re goddamn hero.
It is seen as modish to sort your plastics for recycling, to switch to a plant-based diet and to use LED light bulbs; however, the evidence reveals such endeavors provide no benefit to the climate. The media has duped an ever-dutiful populous into conflating environmental issues with climatic ones. Nobody wants synthetic materials floating about the oceans, we can all agree on that, but reducing plastics, even banning them altogether, will have ZERO impact on the climate. I can’t believe I still have to point this out. But I do. Such is a modern eco-warrior’s complete disconnect with reality.
It’s understandable why many people –especially the young– genuinely believe the world is about to end. The programming is inescapable–again, particularly for the young. If children aren’t being bombarded with CAGW messaging through their smart phones and TV, then their virtue-signalling teachers at school will be assigning them tasks such as coloring in placards and posters in preparation for the latest pointless public parade (which the kids are often driven to by their parents–in gas cars!).
This was literally the scene at our children’s former school, and was key to us pulling them out of that indoctrination station.
As I’ve always known, the aim of school is to produce compliant little worker bees–which is bad enough; but in recent years, that aim has been shaded even darker — the goal now is a form of total corruption whereby poor young minds are warped into believing that Grimm’s Fairy Tales are REAL and that TEOTW is nigh.
These wannabe ‘do-gooders’ –these so-called educators and protectors– ought to be eternally ashamed of themselves, and I will work until the end of my days to expose their absurd and dangerous folly.
Because while problems undoubtedly remain with regards to the environment, life for humanity has improved vastly — and by every metric. Heatwaves, floods, wildfires and storms are reported by the mainstream corporate media as if they are new and ever-intensifying events, yet the data shows that human tragedies related to said events were far worse in the past.
In the 1920s, around half a million people were killed by weather disasters, whereas in the last decade the death-toll averaged ‘just’ 18,000, with this year, just like the immediately preceding 2020 and 2021, tracking even lower than that.
Why? How? I Don’t believe you! Well, when people get richer, they get more resilient. Weather-fixated television news would make us all think that disasters are all getting worse. They’re not, writes Bjorn Lomborg for the New York Post.
In 1900, around 4.5% of the land area of the world would burn every year. Over the last century, this declined to about 3.2%. And in the last two decades, satellites show an even further decline — in 2021 just 2.5% burned. Models show that by the end of the century, human adaptation will mean even less burning.
Below is the ‘official’ wildfires chart for the United States:
wildfire-numbers-usa.png

It, as we also see in Europe, shows a declining trend. But there’s more to the story. The Biden administration recently scrubbed all wildfire data prior to 1983. This was done because fire burn acreage was found to be much higher between 1910-1960 than it is today and therefore contradicted the government’s AGW/wildfire correlation. In typically Orwellian fashion, the administration wiped these decades of inconvenient data from the history books citing the lackluster reasoning: “it wasn’t official” (linked here).
Moreover, the year 1983 –the new starting point– just so happens to have the lowest burn acreage in recorded history:


The National Interagency Fire Center [NIFC].

In reality, though –where I’m keen to reside– there is no correlation between to be found between anthropogenic global warming and wildfires.
U.S. burn acreage is actually down 90% since CO2 was at pre-industrial levels, but the Biden administration recently deleted this document, too:



Similarly, environmentalists loudly declared that Australia’s magnificent Great Barrier Reef was nearly dead, killed by bleaching caused by climate change. The UK Guardian even published an obituary.
However, this year the Reef is seeing its highest coral cover since records began back in 1985. This good-news, however, got a fraction of the attention.


Additionally, and not long ago, environmentalists constantly used pictures of polar bears to highlight the dangers of climate change. The Arctic bears even featured in Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth.”
But, once again, the reality contradicts the doom and gloom — polar bear numbers have been increasing, from somewhere between five and ten thousand in the 1960s, up to around 26,000 today–even more according to zoologist Susan Crockford.
But, once again, we don’t hear this news. Instead, campaigners just quietly stopped using polar bears imagery in their activism.


Polar bear numbers have increased from <10,000 to >26,000.

‘The end is nigh’ is a powerfully controlling and lucrative message –I get it, I get why it’s abused– but the costs to society are sky-high: we make poor, expensive policy choices, seen today in soaring energy prices, and our kids are being scared witless.
I fear that people are mentally –and literally– preparing for a world of linearly-rising temperatures when in actual fact the complete opposite is looming.
Cold kills many more people than heat could ever dream of. In the US, about 20,000 people die from heat each year, with 170,000 perishing from the cold — something we’re not permitted to focus on. Moreover, cold deaths are actually rising in the US, and the incessant focus on global warming is exacerbating this trend. This is because politicians continue to introduce laws and policies grounded in baseless green ideologies that only make energy more expensive, meaning fewer people can afford to keep warm.
As hinted at above, this is a dangerous cocktail of ignorance/corruption that everyday Europeans are about to run into headfirst this winter. But don’t you Americans and Australians et al. go thinking you’re immune from the knock-on effects — this will prove a global phenomenon, a true catastrophe — particularly when food shortages get thrown into the mix (caused by a lack of inputs, mainly fertilizers–and that’s not to mention the direct impact a cooling world will have on crop yields).
Over the next few decades, the global average temperature is on course to drop significantly, regardless of what CO2 does –which I assume will continue to increase– due to low solar activity. How much the temperature drops is anyone’s guess — a fall of 2C is my somewhat inform stab, but I’m even less clear on its duration, but we’ll likely be talking decades, not years.
Virtually all the money our green-hamstrung ‘leaders’ have thrown at wind, solar, electric vehicles, Net Zero, Green New Deals, Inflation Reduction Acts, etc., etc. are a malicious squandering, and certain folk should be jailed for the backhanders that likely occurred.
There is indeed a Climate Emergency on the horizon, but the threat is from decreasing temperatures and brutal winters. The mercury is headed lower as we move into the AMO’s cold phase and descend deeper into the next Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) — it has been since 2016. Another large volcanic eruption or two –adding to Hunga Tonga’s Jan 15th mesospheric injection– and/or the Arctic waters currently locked up in the Beaufort Gyre being released will see us all, rich and poor alike, enter a period of genuine and serious peril.
The CO2-induced global warming hypothesis will seem like a cake walk compared to a new Little Ice Age. Warmth is good for life on earth, as are higher concentrations of carbon–the building block of life. The messaging has it entirely backwards, and the Pied Pipers of this world are being allowed, encouraged even, to lead our children into the Hamlin cave, after which their innocence and ability to think-critically will never be seen again. Climate zealotry is a destructive force. This will not end well.


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

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Carrington-like Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) To Strike Earth On Friday, September 23…​

September 8, 2022 Cap Allon
I had decided not to write this article–about a week ago when I first heard about it. Giving credence to EOTW predictions that put an exact date on the catastrophe only ever leaves you with egg on your face–and this one not only provides a date, but an exact time, too! Still, the multidisciplinary approach is interesting, and the date isn’t very far away, meaning we don’t have to wait long to test the hypothesis.
On Friday, September 23, 2022 at 05:07 UT a powerful Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) will strike Earth –a Carrington-like event– that will ring in the end of the world as we know it. This is according to scientist Ali Al-Rubaidi in a paper published last month on ResearchGate that is “based on Science and The Quran”–a multidisciplinary approach I find curious.

Lifted directly from the study:
“This short paper forecasts the next Solar Storm, commencing with CME at the Sun’s location in the zenith at Riau, Indonesia, during the Autumnal equinox on 23 September 2022, at around 5:07 UTC. Based on our method of interpreting the Cave chapter verse (18:17), the term [tazāwaru] signifies the negative and southerly orientation associated with the Sun in verse.
“Furthermore, the southward direction and negative polarity of the IMF-Bz component, signifying a strong interaction with the magnetosphere, are also crucial for developing a geomagnetic storm. Consequently, the term [tazāwaru] in verse may correlate with the Sun to suggest the occurrence of CME at the zenith position of the Sun on 23 September 2022.”

Another interesting section:
“The Solar storm consequences for humans vary from awe-inspiring celestial displays, such as auroras, to subtle but possibly harmful impacts on technology systems that are becoming more vital to everyday life.
“For instance, electric power transmission networks and communication lines have been shown to be susceptible to solar phenomena (Joselyn 1992). Internet outage for a day in the US costs $7 billion, while electrical network failure costs $40 billion. All other systems depend on the electricity network (Jyothi 2021).
“Hence, It is certain that if the Carrington event reoccurrence occurred today, it could devastate our modern technological infrastructure. That would offer a high probability of a complex situation of global food crisis that will wreak havoc on local economies and trigger civil unrest.
“In the world bank food security report on 15 August 2022 (The world bank 2022), record high food prices have sparked a worldwide crisis that will push millions more into severe poverty, exacerbate hunger and malnutrition, and threaten to reverse years of development progress. For example, more than 17.4 million Yemenis are food insecure; in the coming months, 7.3 million are expected to fall into emergency hunger (UN 2022).
“As a result, we contend that preparing people for the next Carrington event, which we foresee, is a critical step in shifting from a negative to a positive influence that should be shown to evoke people’s perceptions to reduce the impact of solar storms on people’s lives.”

The paper concludes:
“The world is now experiencing a food scarcity issue. The emergence of a Solar Storm would greatly complicate people’s life.
“As a result, we propose that preparing people for the next Solar Storm, which we anticipate, is a vital step in transitioning from a negative to a significant outcome that should be shown to evoke people’s perceptions to reduce the impact of a solar storm on people’s lives.
“We contend that uncovering the evidence in God’s cave probably will contribute to raising people’s awareness to deal with the repercussions of a solar storm with caution. Myth and legend are likely embedded in the subconscious mind. Therefore, as the best creator, God provides the Seven Sleepers tale with a purpose that likely leads to a change in people’s perspectives during challenging situations.
“Furthermore, we claim that the verse (18:17) that encodes our identity corresponds with the Solar Storm, and you may use our interpretation approach to reveal our identity within a word of the verse.”


The Science Behind The Forecast

Solar flares and CMEs are caused by explosive discharges of magnetic energy from the solar atmosphere.
Al-Rubaidi’s paper aims to notify the scientific community of the threats posed by the Solar Storms expected on Sept 23, and also to “prepare the community to become acquainted with the consequences of said storms and how to limit their impact.”
Solar storms are comprised of three primary elements: solar flares, solar proton events (SPEs), and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Interactions between CMEs and the earth’s magnetic field may result in a geomagnetic storm. Not all solar storms create all three components, although the most powerful ones often do (Marusek 2007).
Although flare radiation and solar energetic particles have substantial and observable impacts, magnetic storms, which are the reaction of the earth’s magnetic field to unavoidable inhomogeneities in the solar wind, are responsible for the most ubiquitous human consequences (Joselyn 1992).
CMEs include the release of electrically charged solar particles and magnetic fields into space. This magnetic cloud takes 13 to 5 days to reach earth (although the fastest can arrive in 15-18 hours), and interact with earth’s magnetic field to create intense electric currents that may damage and destroy human technology (Jyothi 2021).
Adding further intriguement, there just so happens to be a monstrous sunspot currently blowing its top on the farside of the sun. NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft recorded this magnificent full-halo CME during the late hours of Sept 5:



A NASA model of the CME shows it heading away from Earth and directly toward Venus:



This will make it the second time in a week that Venus has been hammered by a significant solar storm (an earlier CME struck on Sept 1, probably launched by the same farside sunspot).
“This is no run of the mill event,” says George Ho of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab. “Many science papers will be studying this for years to come.”
Ho is the principal investigator for an energetic particle detector onboard Europe’s Solar Orbiter spacecraft–and he is getting a lot of data right now. Solar Orbiter just performed a close flyby of Venus (only 6420 km away) to adjust its orbit around the sun. It is in the perfect position to observe the storm.
This plot shows a wave of energetic particles washing over the spacecraft:



“I can safely say the Sept 5 event is one of the largest (if not THE largest) Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) storms that we have seen … In fact, the >10 MeV and >50 MeV particle intensity has not subsided since the beginning of the storm,” continued Ho.
“This is indicative of a very fast and powerful interplanetary shock, and the inner heliosphere may be filled with these high-energy particles for a long time. I think I’ve only seen couple of these in the last couple solar cycles.”
To clarify, Earth is not affected by this storm, which is happening on the opposite side of the sun. However, the underlying explosion occurred in the magnetic canopy of AR3088 –that monstrous and strangely magnetized (perpendicular) sunspot that we discussed in late August (link here)– is now transiting the farside, apparently even bigger and angrier than before, with the sun’s rotation set to turn it toward Earth again later in the month, timing ominously-well with Al-Rubaidi’s call for ‘the big one’.


NASA model
of the 1859 Carrington Event.

Do I personally think that a powerful Carrington-like CME will strike earth’s atmosphere on September 23?
No.
Still, will my eyes be aimed up at the skies three Friday’s from now?
Yes. They will.
Religious scriptures are powerful tools. They often contain warnings of past cyclical catastrophes that are doomed to repeat, from which heedance can be drawn. In other words, I’m not rejecting this prediction out of hand — not least because I can see with my own eyes the fiery AR3088 that is slowly but surely making its way around the farside of the sun.
Also, and just to add further confluences, Al-Rubaidi’s prediction also coincides with the Federal Reserves next meeting, which is also a date that financial expert Jim Rickards has claimed will ring in the next big financial crash, the next Great Depression.
And all this without even mentioning the clear correlation between solar bombardments and tropical storm intensity.

Something is coming, that’s for sure — stay tuned for updates.
Earth’s Magnetic Field just Struggled with a Weak CME: Sign of the Times




Our planet’s magnetosphere is weaker than we’ve all realized. The recent CME released from the Sun should not have caused a G3-storm. Prepare for a grid-down scenario. Soon.


Electroverse


 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

Christchurch-snow-e1662716607546.jpg

Articles
Crop Loss Extreme Weather

Regions of Russia And Belarus Suffer Earliest Frosts On Record; Cold Benchmarks Fall In New Zealand; September Snow Forecast For NW U.S.; + USDA Crop Estimates Revised Lower​

September 9, 2022 Cap Allon

Regions of Russia And Belarus Suffer Earliest Frosts On Record

Eastern Europe has been experiencing record-breaking cold and heavy rains since the onset of September.
In fact, this has been a similar setup for long stretches of the summer, because while Western Europe has been attaining all the headlines –thanks to a heat-chasing mainstream media– it’s been holding anomalously-cold across the majority of the East.
This week, Kaliningrad, Russia and Minsk, Belarus were among the locales to suffer their earliest frosts in recorded history.


A story of Europe’s summer: the MSM reports on the ‘reds’ and sidesteps the ‘blues’.

Elsewhere, a swing between extremes –from heat to record cold– has been noted in Finland and other Baltic nations this week.
Yesterday, the mercury in Finland plunged as low as -7.5C (18.5F), at Ylivieska airport. In fact, this first week of September has been Finland’s coldest in decades, particularly in the South where the capital Helsinki has suffered its chilliest start to the month of September since 1941.





Ilmatieteen laitos
@meteorologit

Syyskuu on alkanut koleana, ja varsinkin maan länsi- ja eteläosassa on ollut poikkeuksellisen koleaa, keskilämpötilan ollessa noin 4-5 astetta keskimääräistä alempi. Ensi viikkoa kohti mentäessä sää vähitellen lämpenee lähemmäksi ajankohdan tyypillisiä arvoja. #sää #syyskuu https://t.co/aYMpxixBz3


Image

4:43 AM · Sep 7, 2022
The mainstream corporate media aren’t at all interested in the cold, meaning an ever-trusting public aren’t at all privy to its existence. Literally. The dutiful masses still believe the ‘world is on fire’ –as that’s what they’re instructed to believe– even though the actual and readily sourceable data, ‘The Science’ we’re told to follow, tells of a contradictory and unalarming reality:




Cold Benchmarks Fall In New Zealand

It’s been a wickedly cold and snow start to September for many in New Zealand, with Christchurch the coldest ‘main city’ and Auckland plunging to near zero (C).

The low at Christchurch Airport dropped to -4.7C (23.5F) this week which, according to MetService, was the city’s second-lowest September temperature since records began in 1954 (almost pipping the coldest-ever low — the -4.8C (23.4F) set recently, in 2020).

Clear skies and a lack of wind were two reasons why it was so cold, MetService meteorologist Dan Corrigan said.

“The other reason why it’s exceptional is we had snow in Christchurch yesterday. That indicates we had some really cold air straight off the Antarctic sea ice sweeping up over the South Island.”

After a light dusting of snow in some areas on Tuesday morning, Christchurch had a near-record cold morning on Wednesday.
Rare snow and record-challening cold strike Christchurch [Peter Meecham/Stuff].

This was Christchurch’s first decent snowfall in almost a decade, with flurries also falling in Wellington and Dunedin. The last time the city saw settling snow was back in 2013.

Kiwi’s have been shivering this week, with freezing lows invading much of the country:

Rotorua plunged to -3.1C (26.4F); Hamilton sank to -1.6C (29.1F); Wainuiomata reached -1.9C (28.6F); Upper Hutt down to -2C (28.4F); while the only places with colder temperatures than Christchurch were the highest elevations, such as Pikaki with its -5.4C (22.3F), a reading matched at Tekapo; the -6.3C (20.7F) at St Arnaud; and the -7C (19.4F) at Mt Cook airport.

The Desert Road, which was covered in snow, registered -6.6C (20.1F) — incredibly cold for September.


September Snow Forecast For Northwest

Before the arrival of astronomical fall, pockets of the West are set for high-level snowfall–particularly the Northwest.

The models are jumping about all over the place in terms of volume, but the locations have remained pretty consistent: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming and even Utah and Colorado are all on course for high-elevation flurries over the coming days and weeks, with provinces north of the border –namely B.C.– also set for some substantial summer accumulations:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Sept 9 – Sept 24 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Looking elsewhere, there is a solid chance central and southern states could see fall-type weather, too, this weekend as the North’s pockets of polar cold descend down:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Sept 10 – Sept 12 [tropicaltidbits.com].

USDA Crop Estimates Revised Lower

The September update of the USDA’s influential Wasde report is projected to show declines –surprise-surprise– in its estimates for the US and global ending stockpiles in the 2022/23 crop year, an Agricensus poll showed.

Analysts see U.S. production declining to 14.09 billion bushels (358 million mt) from the 14.359 billion bushels estimated in August, a drop of 269 million bushels (6.83 million mt), as yield projections continue to decrease.

This season’s yields are seen at 172.5 bushels per acre, down quite substantially from 175.4 bushes per acre projected in August, with further falls expected as the USDA ‘trickle-feeds’ the bad news through — the agency exists to stabilize the markets, remember.

Declining production will lower U.S. ending stocks with analysts projecting the new report –due out 12:00 ET on Mon, Sept 12– will show 1.206 billion bushels (31 million mt), down by 182 million bushels (4.6 million mt) from the August Wasde.

Global ending stockpiles for the new crop year are projected to decline by 5.3 million mt from August’s report to 301 million mt.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

nomifyle

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I've been feeling that cold will come sooner rather than later. It's supposed to be 90 today in my neck of the woods in Louisiana, but it was 68 last night. DH says leaves starting to turn is from the heat, but I'm not sure. What's turning are the vines in the trees, they are the first to die off.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
I've been feeling that cold will come sooner rather than later. It's supposed to be 90 today in my neck of the woods in Louisiana, but it was 68 last night. DH says leaves starting to turn is from the heat, but I'm not sure. What's turning are the vines in the trees, they are the first to die off.


Tonight the weather service has a large area of North Dakota under a frost warning.
I think this is a little early for them to be seeing frost.
 

TxGal

Day by day
People seem to be catching on to the true nature of signficant and longer-term weather changes. They may be catching on to the Grand Solar Minimum:


"Nothing To Do With Man" - Astrophysicist Says Climate-Cultists "Are On A Gravy Train" To Make Money​

BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, SEP 10, 2022 - 08:30 PM

This year's heat waves and subsequent droughts resulted in the hottest summer in recorded European history, according to a report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) - an EU-funded Earth observation agency.

“We’ve not only had record August temperatures for Europe, but also for the summer, with the previous summer record only being one year old,” said Freja Vamborg, a senior scientist at the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Of course, this 'record' heat in the summer has prompted activists to trot out the same old tropes that this 'confirms climate change' is having a catastrophic effect on the world already. With the energy crisis facing Europe, this is not a particularly comfortable topic as numerous nations abandon - albeit apparently temporarily - their green policies in favor of not letting their citizenry starve or freeze.

Given that it's all 'settled science', the following RT News anchor was probably expecting a rote response to his questions about climate change.



He was in for a big surprise...

Piers Corbyn - physicist, meteorologist, and elder brother of former UK Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn - explained to the shocked RT anchor that the climate "has always been changing, but this has nothing to do with man"

The astrophysicist instead believes that changes in the Earth’s climate and its weather are dictated primarily by cyclical activity on the surface of the sun (and not, pointedly, by the effects of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere).

“For one thing science doesn’t do settled opinions,” Corbyn says.
“And for another they are all wrong.”
"Surely man has something to with this," exclaims the struggling new anchor, to which Corbyn responds:

"No, the only connection is that man is here at the same time as the sun and the moon are doing things."
The frustrated anchor falls back to consensus, asking "so how come then that so many climate change scientists disagree with you and they get so much support for that?"

Corbyn's laughing response was straightforward:

"...those that say this are just trying to make money... They're on a gravy train for heaven's sake."

Watch the brief interview below:

View: https://twitter.com/ArtValley818_/status/1568338056943665154
Run time is 2:20

Finally, we note that in former UK PM Boris Johnson once lauded Corbyn as “the world’s foremost meteorological soothsayer”.

We suspect this is the last time Mr.Corbyn will be allowed on TV...
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

fear.jpg
Articles

“We Have 500 Days to Avoid Climate Chaos”​

September 12, 2022 Cap Allon
Fear is a powerful weapon. The threat of an impending “climate catastrophe” has been used to control the global population for decades. It’s time we all woke up.
In the 1960s and 1970s, warnings of Ozone Depletion, Killer Acid Rain, crop-ending droughts, and even an impending Ice Age permeated the newspapers of the day, threats intentionally crafted to keep the sheep scared and compliant.
Then, by the 1980s these warnings had been honed, meticulously and malevolently molded into perhaps the greatest controlling measure ever devised. At the close of the decade the elites were ready to unleash it on the masses.
They realized that blaming the people for any looming catastrophe provided additional exploitable layers to the fear. Layers of guilt, of infighting and division, and of taxation. The name of the controlling measure was Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).
NASA’s James Hansen’s Congressional testimony in 1988 set the ball rolling, or at least can be credited with bringing the “measure” to the attention of politicians. Hansen linked human CO2 emissions to rising global temperatures and projected three ‘warming scenarios’ moving into the future (click here for how well he did — spoiler: he did terribly).


Wasting no time in rolling out Project Fear, the UN and its corrupted MSM lapdogs ran with Hansen’s testimony and quickly began peddling-out their own scientifically-baseless doomsday scenarios.
An AP headline from as early as 1989 read: “Rising seas could obliterate nations: U.N. officials” — the article detailed a U.N. environmental official warning that entire nations would be wiped off the map if the world failed to reverse warming by 2000.
Science told us the Arctic would be completely free of summer ice by 2009, by 2013, by 2015, by 2016, by 2018, and now by… 2050…? with mainstream publications never questioning the mounting pile of FAILED prophesies.
Al Gore is king of the bullshitters, but the majority of modern politicians have bought into the ruse, too (they’ve had to in order to placate a small yet noisy –and brainwashed– section of the populous)–though some do push it further than others and as a result blindly subject their future selves to ridicule and forced retraction when their predictions are inevitably proven wrong.
Back in May, 2014, French foreign minister Laurent Fabius, during a joint appearance with then U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, claimed “we have 500 days to avoid climate chaos.”
Fabius’s ludicrous comments were made during the early drafting of the Paris Climate Deal, a deal which gained 195 signatories and eventually became effective as of November 2016 (around 60 days after France’s foreign minister’s deadline for disaster).
But Fabius certainly isn’t alone.
Recent history is littered with examples of expired doomsday dates. There are long lists compiled on blogs across the web; there are catalogs documenting thousands upon thousands of failed climate predictions from politicians, scientists, and journalists alike. Unfortunately though, this reality is never touched by the bought-out and utterly corrupted MSM — The Science is settled, after-all, and the fact that every dire climate prediction of the past 40 years has been wrong is seemingly completely irrelevant.
We humans are sheep though.
We are easily herded.
The few anti-authoritarians among us have an increasingly hard job because modern avenues for revolt are being shutdown. So-called “Fact-Checkers” are filtering speech across the internet, and they and they alone decide what’s true, and so, at the behest of their Totalitarian backers, can shape the narrative and so reality itself however they deem fit (and on all topics, too; from AGW to COVID, from the Ukraine to BLM). It’s long time we stand up. It’s time we revolt.

[This was a bit of a shorter/rehash article. It’s my middle son’s 10th birthday today, so my time is his. See you tomorrow!]
 

TxGal

Day by day
Grand Solar Minimum changes, I believe:


The Stage Is Being Set For A Massive Global Rice Shortage​

September 11, 2022 by Michael

(picture of rice I can't bring over)

This wasn’t supposed to happen. For months, I have been writing article after article about the rapidly growing global food crisis, but even though drought is devastating so many other crops all over the planet I thought that there would be plenty of rice in 2023. Unfortunately, I was wrong. As you will see below, some of the biggest rice producers in the entire world are being hit really hard, and rice production is going to be way below expectations this year. Of course rice is one of the primary staples that poor nations depend upon, and so this is a really big deal. If there is a serious shortage of rice in 2023, that is going to have enormous implications for all of us.

An announcement that India just made should be front page news all over the globe right now.

India usually accounts for over 40 percent of all worldwide rice shipments, but now they have placed severe restrictions on all future exports this year…

India banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades of rice on Thursday as the world’s biggest exporter of the grain tries to augment supplies and calm local prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting.
India exports rice to more than 150 countries, and any reduction in its shipments would increase upward pressure on food prices, which are already rising because of drought, heat-waves and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Did you catch that last sentence?

150 different nations depend on rice from India.

So where are they going to get their rice?

Normally, India exports more rice than the next four largest exporters combined

India’s rice exports touched a record 21.5 million tons in 2021, more than the combined shipments of the world’s next four biggest exporters of the grain: Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States.

Italy is the biggest rice producer in the European Union, and it is being projected that rice production in that nation will be down about 30 percent this year due to the endless drought that Europe is currently experiencing…

The unfavorable weather has already taken a serious toll on the rice industry. Estimates say farmers are expecting to lose around 30 percent of their yields this year, and the industry has already hemorrhaged around $3 billion as a result of the drought. Many of the most stricken fields are in the regions of Lombardy and Piedmont, which together produce around 90 percent of Italy’s rice.
Rice production is going to be way down in the United States as well.

California usually produces about 20 percent of all U.S. rice, but this year a severe lack of water for agricultural purposes is making things exceedingly difficult for rice growers in the state…

Rice farmers in Colusa County, 60 miles north of Sacramento, received 18% of the federal water shipments to which they are entitled, far less than normal and too little for many to grow the crop at all.
“Even in a drought, rice farmers have been able to get a fairly high percentage of the water they had rights to,” said Tim Johnson, chief executive of the California Rice Commission. “Now they are experiencing drought at a level they’ve never seen before.”
What we are witnessing is truly unprecedented.

I know that this may be hard to believe, but it is being reported that “about 300,000 out of the 550,000 acres committed to rice growing in California will go without harvest” in 2022. The following comes from Zero Hedge

New satellite imagery shows a large swath of California’s rice fields has been left barren without harvest as fears of a ‘mini dust bowl’ emerge due to diminishing water supplies.
Kurt Richter, a third-generation rice farmer in Colusa, the rice capital of California, told San Francisco Chronicle that fields upon fields of the grain have already transformed into a “wasteland.”
A report via the US Department of Agriculture shows about 300,000 out of the 550,000 acres committed to rice growing in California will go without harvest. This could potentially drive up sushi prices nationwide because most of the rice produced in the state is for just that.
Of course many other crops are being hit extremely hard as well.

California normally produces approximately a third of our vegetables and about two-thirds of our fruits and nuts, and the lack of production this year is already starting to show up on our store shelves

High temperatures in the Western U.S. are hitting the produce industry, damaging crops, shrinking shipments, and leaving fewer leafy greens and fruits on supermarket shelves.
A California grower said some of his lettuce leaves are turning brown and melting in the fields because of crop diseases intensified by the high temperatures. In Pennsylvania, a retailer said its stores went a week without having strawberries to sell. A New York distributor has substituted honeydew melons for watermelons, which have become scarce.
Supermarkets say they are giving less shelf space to products with weather-induced discolorations, bruises or burns. Stores are cutting prices on poor-quality items to avoid getting stuck with them, and increasingly receiving products from Canada, Florida, New Jersey and Ohio instead of California, long the go-to source for U.S. grocers.
This crisis is only going to get worse in the months ahead.

I have been encouraging my readers to get prepared for a very long time, and I hope that you have taken that advice.

All over the planet, agricultural production is going to be way below original projections this year. For example, just check out what is happening to olive oil production in Spain

In July, temperatures broke records to top 40 degrees Celsius (104.5 degrees Fahrenheit) across parts of France, Spain, Italy and Portugal. By early August, sweltering heat and a lack of rainfall had pushed almost two-thirds of land in the European Union into drought conditions, according to the European Drought Observatory.
Olive oil producers have been hit hard. Kyle Holland, a pricing analyst for oilseeds and grains at Mintec, a commodities data company, expects a “dramatic reduction” of between 33% and 38% in Spain’s olive oil harvest that begins in October.
Spain is the world’s biggest producer of olive oil, accounting for more than two-fifths of global supply last year, according to the International Olive Council. Greece, Italy and Portugal are also major producers.
For a lot more data points on the rapidly growing global food crisis, please see my previous article entitled “A List Of 33 Things We Know About The Coming Food Shortages”.

None of us have ever faced anything like this.

The food that will not be harvested in the months ahead will not be on our store shelves in 2023.

Food prices are going to rise to absolutely ridiculous levels, and the head of the UN is already warning of “multiple famines” next year.

This is not a drill. Food shortages really are coming, and our world will be changing in wild and unpredictable ways.
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

shep-snow-e1663067377132.jpg
Articles

Record Lows Set Across The U.S.; Freeze Sees Smallest NW Cherry Harvest In 14 Years; Peer-Reviewed Science Shows There Is No Climate Emergency; + WMO Secretary-General Admits La Nina Is “Slowing Rise In Global Temperatures”​

September 13, 2022 Cap Allon

Record Lows Set Across The U.S.

The MSM are all-too keep to ram busted heat records down the public’s throat –hot benchmarks bolstered by the ignored UHI effect and an overarching heat bias in the datasets– but when it comes to record cold, the mainstream often fall quiet.
Below are just a handful of the unreported low temperature records set across the U.S. in recent days (data courtesy of the NWS):

  • The NWS at Boise, ID reported a new record low temperature at Twin Falls on Monday, September 12 — a Low of 40F (4.4C) was noted, breaking the previous benchmark of 42F (5.6C) set in 2010.
  • Sunday afternoon saw a new cold record set at Laramie Airport, WY — the daily high on Sept 11 struggled to just 25F (-3.9C), busting the old record of 27F (-2.8C) set back in 1974.
  • The NWS at Dodge City, KS recently registered 41F (5C) at Garden City Regional Airport on Sept 11, a reading that usurped the previous record of 44F (6.7C) from 1989.
  • On Sunday morning a record low of 43F (6.1C) was set at Russel, KS, busting the 45F (7.2F) set in 2007.
  • And finally, though to cap off a by no means exhaustive list, Livingston, MT recently tied a cold temperature benchmark — the 27F (-2.8F) from 1989.


Freeze Sees Smallest NW Cherry Harvest In 14 Years

The 2022 Pacific Northwest cherry crop is the smallest in 14 years due to persistent spring cold and a historic snowstorm.
A severe, record-breaking winter storm that hit Oregon and Washington in mid-April is being blamed for the smaller-than-usual fruit harvest, with the late-season Arctic blast occurring during the region’s key cherry blossom bloom.
According to B.J. Thurlby, president of both the Washington State Fruit Commission and Northwest Cherries, a snow event during the cherry bloom had never been documented before in weather books dating back more than a century.
He said this year’s crop is on course to be the smallest since at least 2008 (solar minimum of cycle 24).
“The crop should finish up at 130,000 tons going to the fresh market,” Thurlby told OPB. “A normal crop is 210,000 tons going to the fresh market … fewer cherries will be available on the market, with the NW being one of the largest exporters in the nation.”
Charles Poindexter, co-owner of Sherwood Orchards, said his apple season was also affected by the weather–that it started at least a week late because of the historically cold conditions.


Peer-Reviewed Science Shows There Is No Climate Emergency

The Science’ shows weather-related disasters have declined — this is an irrefutable fact.
The below slides –compiled by Michael Shellenberger— are lifted from peer-reviewed scientific studies and/or the IPCC.
Citations are clearly listed on the graphics.




image-23.png
image-24.png


We’re told to follow said ‘The Science’, but if we do, with honestly and with integrity, then ALL claims of a Climate Emergency immediately fall apart.
Understanding the above slides leaves dutiful members of the public with a choice: “Do I believe in the ideology and in the incessant propagandizing, or do I put my trust in the available data?” The weak and easily-manipulated choose the former and, unfortunately, such folk make up an increasingly large portion of the populous. Group-think wins over independent thought. It is perceived safer to exist as a sheep in a herd lead by a tyrannical shepherd than it is to be a lone wolf living for the truth.





Tom Nelson
@tan123

Don’t miss this 1-minute climate realist video featuring Randall Carlson! https://t.co/WIGgQpHuyO


Image

5:59 PM · Sep 11, 2022
https://twitter.com/intent/like?ref...3969widget=Tweet&tweet_id=1569083308788563969
The UK
Briefly, a lot was made of the UK’s summer this year — the AGW rhetoric called it catastrophically hot and devastatingly dry.


The ‘official’ data, however, isn’t anywhere near as alarming. With an average temperature of 15.7C (60.3F), it was the UK’s fourth warmest summer, and fifth driest — not much to write home about.


WMO Secretary-General Admits La Nina Is “Slowing Rise In Global Temperatures”

As per a recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, it is likely that the protracted La Niña will last until at least the end of the year, becoming this century’s first “triple-dip“ La Niña, spanning three consecutive northern hemisphere winters (southern hemisphere summers).

The WMO Update predicts the continuation of the current La Niña over the next six months, with a 70% chance in September-November 2022 but gradually decreasing to 55% in December-February 2022/2023.

La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific have strengthened as trade winds intensified during mid-July to mid-August 2022, affecting temperature and precipitation patterns and exacerbating drought and flooding in different parts of the world.

“It is exceptional to have three consecutive years with a la Niña event,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas was quoted saying in the online report. “Its cooling influence is temporarily slowing the rise in global temperatures…”

This may not sound like much of a win for us realists, but over the recent years it has become increasingly rare to hear anyone in any position of power admit that a natural forcing can exert any influence at all on catastrophic anthropogenic global warming.

Given the irrefutable data, however, Petteri Taalas had no choice. But don’t worry, he quickly returns to the AGW Party line: All naturally occurring climate events are now framed within the context of human-induced climate change, and to that point, Taalas adds that the observed slow-down in rising temperatures is “temporary”, and “will not halt or reverse the long-term warming trend.”

The ‘definite assertion’ contained within that claim should ring the alarm bells to any critical thinker. Taalas cannot know what the future holds, he can only speculate. AGW Party members, however, are instructed to deliver a message of clear cut dread, to promote an unambiguous existential threat, to seed a certainty of gloom-and-doom: “The Climate Emergency is here and it’s here to stay –no matter what the sun, the oceans or the atmosphere do– and you need to pay for it.”

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

gfs_T2ma_eu_19-3-e1663150813531.png

Extreme Weather

Fall-Like Weather To Engulf Energy-Stricken Europe (September Frosts For Germany); Another Cold Month For Much Of South America; + It’s Baaaack! (AR3088)​

September 14, 2022 Cap Allon

Fall-Like Weather To Engulf Energy-Stricken Europe

As the lights are turned off across Europe and as thermostats are reluctantly –though forcibly– turned down, a taste of winter is about to sweep the continent that will render that “catastrophic” summer heat a distant, unappreciated memory.
Cold kills far more than heat. This is an indisputable, and inconvenient, fact that the AGW Party has always had difficulty grappling with. 20x as many people die in the cold vs the heat, according to a study published in The Lancet; the figure is 80x as many, according to other research; while a 2020 study concluded that patients who died of the cold were responsible for 94% of temperature-related deaths.
Focusing on The Lancet study, the researchers, led by Antonio Gasparrini of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, analyzed data on more than 74 million deaths in 13 countries between 1985 and 2012. Of those 74 millions deaths Gasparrini and his team found that 5.4 million were related to cold, while only 311,000 were related to heat.
Because the study included countries under different socio-economic backgrounds and with varying climates, it was representative of temperature-related deaths worldwide, said Gasparrini.
The sharp distinction between heat- and cold-related deaths is because low temperatures cause more problems for the body’s cardiovascular and respiratory systems, explains the study’s abstract.
“Public-health policies focus almost exclusively on minimizing the health consequences of heat waves,” said Gasparrini. “Our findings suggest that these measures need to be refocused and extended to take account of a whole range of effects associated with temperature.”
Of course, any mainstream admission that cold weather is a bigger killer than hot –with its predominance actually increasing, no less– is going to rattle ‘the reality’ that has been assembled over the past few decades. But this is exactly what European’s should be bracing for this winter — a dismantling of the orchestrated narrative and a million+ excess cold-related deaths.
The most compliant and trusting are already doomed to perish in their unheated homes –unheated due to unaffordability if not outright unavailability– that is, those who have existed exclusively in these modern times of abundance and who posses zero appreciation for historical sufferings.
In actuality, a history book isn’t even required — merely a memory:
As recently as 2017/18, the UK registered more than 50,000 excess winter deaths during that exceptionally cold Dec-through-March, according to official ONS data — the highest number since 1975/76.
While in Texas, over 700 excess deaths were registered during the states Big Freeze of 2021, including children who froze in their beds. The accompanying power outages affected 69% of Texans, with an estimated 4.5 million homes and businesses going without power at the peak of the blackout –for as long as 5-days in many cases– with the economic toll topping $300 billion.


September Frosts For Germany

Forecast to commence this Friday will be a taster of what’s to come, Europeans — ‘a warning shot across the bow’:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 16 – Sept 26 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Heavy early-season snow is also set to accumulate in Scandinavia, the Alps and Balkan nations–starting this weekend:


GFS Total Snowfall (cm) Sept 14 – Sept 26 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Don’t underestimate the threat this fast-approaching winter poses. Frosts are already on course to grip Europe’s crumbling powerhouse, Germany, as early as next week, and there is no Russian gas –that’s zero– to help fend off the freeze.
Personally, I am buying back-up propane (just like Obama!), chopping wood in our forest (like a lumberjack), and stockpiling food (like Al Gore–the fat squirrel). I can only urge that you do the same. But who knows, maybe we’ll get lucky, maybe this Northern Hemisphere winter won’t be so bad…


Oh, and a ‘fact-check’ re. the Obama’s new gas tank made me laugh. They are NOT buying a 2,500 gallon propane tank, as has been widely reported on social media, they are in fact purchasing two 1,000 gallon tanks and one 500 gallon tank. ♂️


Another Cold Month For Much Of South America

The month of August in Uruguay was another cold one, following on from the frigid June and July–with June finishing as the nation’s chilliest in 41 years.
August 2022 had temperature anomalies below the average across Uruguay, of 0.5C below in the South and 2C below in the NW.


[Inumet]

It was a similar story in Bolivia last month, where cold nights –in particular– were the theme.
While in Peru, August 2022 followed a typical La Nina pattern. That is, cool and dry on the coast, mild and dry in the highlands with cold nights for most.
Central Argentina also suffered a colder-than-average August, continuing the country’s cooling trend witnessed this year. Argentina’s entire Autumn season (March-April-May) was its coldest since 1976 (solar minimum of weak cycle 20), with below-average-temperatures, for the most part, prevailing ever-since: June 2022, for example, was the nation’s coldest in 20 years.


It’s Baaaack! (AR3088):

Active sunspot AR3088 has returned after a two-week trip around the farside of the sun.


AR3088 is seen creeping back around the ‘bottom-left’ of the sun [SDO/HMI]

In August, Earth dodged a fusillade of CMEs from the explosive spot, writes Dr Tony Phillips, with Venus taking the hits instead.

image-28.png



Fortunately, the returning sunspot seems to have decayed somewhat since we last saw it.
However, it still poses a threat for major flares.
We shouldn’t rule out Ali Al-Rubaidi’s prophesy just yet:


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

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Articles

Magnetic Pole Shift + Low Solar Activity: “A Global Environmental Crisis” Has Begun​

September 15, 2022 Cap Allon
Recently, even the mainstream media has awoken to the “cataclysmic” threat that a combo of low solar activity plus a weakening magnetic field poses to life on earth — even the Guardian:
The flipping of the Earth’s magnetic poles together with a drop in solar activity 42,000 years ago could have generated an apocalyptic environment that lead to the extinction of megafauna and to the end of the Neanderthals, they report, citing a paper published in the journal Science, co-authored by Professor Chris Turney of the University of New South Wales.
The new paper, entitled “a global environmental crisis“, discusses the temporary flip of the poles 42,000-or-so years ago, an event known as the Laschamp excursion, which lasted for about 1,000 years.
The Guardian article continues:
Previous work found little evidence that the event had a profound impact on the planet, possibly because the focus had not been on the period during which the poles were actually shifting. Now scientists say the flip, together with a period of low solar activity, could have been behind a vast array of climatic and environmental phenomena with dramatic ramifications.
“It probably would have seemed like the end of days,” said Turney.

The MSM, as you’d expect, fails to draw any comparisons with the events of today, and not one legacy media article attempts to give their readers a fuller understanding of the story.
The Laschamp excursion was just one of many in ‘recent’ times, with these magnetic excursions (not full-blown reversals) appearing to hit approximately every 12,000 years:

Years AgoMagnetic ExcursionIce EventExtinctions
~12,000GothenburgYounger DryasGlobal Disaster
~24,000Lake MungoHeinrich 2Eurasia
~35-37,000Mono LakeHeinrich 4N. America
~40-47,000LaschampHeinrich 5Global Disaster
~60,000Vostok/GreenlandHeinrich 6Australia
~72,000TobaHeinrich 7aGlobal Disaster
Simplified breakdown of past magnetic excursions on Earth.

And yes, you concluded correctly — we’re due another.
In fact, the evidence suggests it’s actually already begun — that’s why all this matters.
Every 12,000 years-or-there-abouts, our planet suffers a magnetic excursion during which its north and south magnetic poles ‘wander’ and eventually ‘flip’. This process results in a waning of Earth’s magnetosphere (its magnetic field) which, in turn –and on every prior occasion, though to varying degrees– fuels serious climatic events and mid-level extinction events on the ground.
The devastation of these events is truly “cataclysmic”–nothing about them is hyperbole, unlike the many modern cries of wolf.
These apocalyptic proceedings result in far more than a bout of extreme ‘climate change’, too, for they also bombard the lower atmosphere with cosmic energy as our shield against the Sun goes down, which, as well as exposing all living organisms to dangerous levels of radiation, also sees cosmic rays penetrate the mantle ‘activating’ silica-rich magma–impacting its viscosity and sending volcanoes a-popping (resulting in global cooling: triple-whammy).
We’ve seen accelerated magnetic field loss in recent years–driven by our wandering poles (as visualized above). This is a key indication that the excursion could be ‘winding up’ and that the poles are readying to ‘flip’.
In the mid-1800s, after millennia of stability, the field began waning, and has been doing so ever-since. Accelerated losses were officially reported as 10% in the year 2000, and then, just a decade later, we were at 15%. The accelerations noted in 2015 and 2017 were only announced to the public in 2020 and 2021 and had detected “significant shifts” in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA).
[The SAA is an area where Earth’s inner Van Allen radiation belt comes closest to Earth’s surface. This leads to an increased flux of energetic particles in this region exposing it to higher-than-usual levels of radiation.]

The strength of Earth’s magnetic field (as of 2020).

Earth is indeed due its next “climatic and environmental disaster”, so the cardboard-coffee-cup supping ‘blue-haired freaks’ among us have that correct. Where these unknowing pawns go hopelessly wrong, however, is in believing that said “catastrophe” is unnatural and that drastic, poverty-inducing policies, such as energy restrictions and carbon taxes, will nip it in the bud. All these malevolent actions will achieve, though, is extend the human suffering, as we’re seeing now, most clearly in Europe.
Cataclysms, débâcles and upheavals are, unfortunately, what magnetic excursions/reversals (coupled with bouts of low solar activity) do. These cyclic events blanch the planet of life and set things up anew. You might look at them as ‘The true Great Reset’.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Posting this here in the GSM thread because the weather is having a significant negative effect on crops around the world. Historically, this has been a pattern with the Minimums.


The Stage Is Being Set For A Massive Global Rice Shortage​

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, SEP 15, 2022 - 03:20 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

This wasn’t supposed to happen. For months, I have been writing article after article about the rapidly growing global food crisis, but even though drought is devastating so many other crops all over the planet I thought that there would be plenty of rice in 2023. Unfortunately, I was wrong. As you will see below, some of the biggest rice producers in the entire world are being hit really hard, and rice production is going to be way below expectations this year. Of course rice is one of the primary staples that poor nations depend upon, and so this is a really big deal. If there is a serious shortage of rice in 2023, that is going to have enormous implications for all of us.



An announcement that India just made should be front page news all over the globe right now.

India usually accounts for over 40 percent of all worldwide rice shipments, but now they have placed severe restrictions on all future exports this year…

India banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades of rice on Thursday as the world’s biggest exporter of the grain tries to augment supplies and calm local prices after below-average monsoon rainfall curtailed planting.
India exports rice to more than 150 countries, and any reduction in its shipments would increase upward pressure on food prices, which are already rising because of drought, heat-waves and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Did you catch that last sentence?

150 different nations depend on rice from India.

So where are they going to get their rice?

Normally, India exports more rice than the next four largest exporters combined

India’s rice exports touched a record 21.5 million tons in 2021, more than the combined shipments of the world’s next four biggest exporters of the grain: Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States.
Europe certainly isn’t going to make up the difference.

Italy is the biggest rice producer in the European Union, and it is being projected that rice production in that nation will be down about 30 percent this year due to the endless drought that Europe is currently experiencing…

The unfavorable weather has already taken a serious toll on the rice industry. Estimates say farmers are expecting to lose around 30 percent of their yields this year, and the industry has already hemorrhaged around $3 billion as a result of the drought. Many of the most stricken fields are in the regions of Lombardy and Piedmont, which together produce around 90 percent of Italy’s rice.
Rice production is going to be way down in the United States as well.

California usually produces about 20 percent of all U.S. rice, but this year a severe lack of water for agricultural purposes is making things exceedingly difficult for rice growers in the state…

Rice farmers in Colusa County, 60 miles north of Sacramento, received 18% of the federal water shipments to which they are entitled, far less than normal and too little for many to grow the crop at all.
“Even in a drought, rice farmers have been able to get a fairly high percentage of the water they had rights to,” said Tim Johnson, chief executive of the California Rice Commission. “Now they are experiencing drought at a level they’ve never seen before.”
What we are witnessing is truly unprecedented.

I know that this may be hard to believe, but it is being reported that “about 300,000 out of the 550,000 acres committed to rice growing in California will go without harvest” in 2022. The following comes from Zero Hedge

New satellite imagery shows a large swath of California’s rice fields has been left barren without harvest as fears of a ‘mini dust bowl’ emerge due to diminishing water supplies.
Kurt Richter, a third-generation rice farmer in Colusa, the rice capital of California, told San Francisco Chronicle that fields upon fields of the grain have already transformed into a “wasteland.”
A report via the US Department of Agriculture shows about 300,000 out of the 550,000 acres committed to rice growing in California will go without harvest. This could potentially drive up sushi prices nationwide because most of the rice produced in the state is for just that.
Of course many other crops are being hit extremely hard as well.

California normally produces approximately a third of our vegetables and about two-thirds of our fruits and nuts, and the lack of production this year is already starting to show up on our store shelves

High temperatures in the Western U.S. are hitting the produce industry, damaging crops, shrinking shipments, and leaving fewer leafy greens and fruits on supermarket shelves.
A California grower said some of his lettuce leaves are turning brown and melting in the fields because of crop diseases intensified by the high temperatures. In Pennsylvania, a retailer said its stores went a week without having strawberries to sell. A New York distributor has substituted honeydew melons for watermelons, which have become scarce.
Supermarkets say they are giving less shelf space to products with weather-induced discolorations, bruises or burns. Stores are cutting prices on poor-quality items to avoid getting stuck with them, and increasingly receiving products from Canada, Florida, New Jersey and Ohio instead of California, long the go-to source for U.S. grocers.
This crisis is only going to get worse in the months ahead.

I have been encouraging my readers to get prepared for a very long time, and I hope that you have taken that advice.
All over the planet, agricultural production is going to be way below original projections this year. For example, just check out what is happening to olive oil production in Spain

In July, temperatures broke records to top 40 degrees Celsius (104.5 degrees Fahrenheit) across parts of France, Spain, Italy and Portugal. By early August, sweltering heat and a lack of rainfall had pushed almost two-thirds of land in the European Union into drought conditions, according to the European Drought Observatory.
Olive oil producers have been hit hard. Kyle Holland, a pricing analyst for oilseeds and grains at Mintec, a commodities data company, expects a “dramatic reduction” of between 33% and 38% in Spain’s olive oil harvest that begins in October.
Spain is the world’s biggest producer of olive oil, accounting for more than two-fifths of global supply last year, according to the International Olive Council. Greece, Italy and Portugal are also major producers.
For a lot more data points on the rapidly growing global food crisis, please see my previous article entitled “A List Of 33 Things We Know About The Coming Food Shortages”.

None of us have ever faced anything like this.

The food that will not be harvested in the months ahead will not be on our store shelves in 2023.

Food prices are going to rise to absolutely ridiculous levels, and the head of the UN is already warning of “multiple famines” next year.

This is not a drill. Food shortages really are coming, and our world will be changing in wild and unpredictable ways.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
I lost count of how many pounds of the stuff we have but it's enough to hold us out for a long time.
Most of the people living around me do not eat rice and if given a quart jar of rice they would throw it away.
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse


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Articles

Agency Temperature Discrepancies And Obfuscations​

September 16, 2022 Cap Allon

Agency Temperature Discrepancies And Obfuscations

The Science is settled, so we’re told. Yet, between them, three leading agencies can’t seem to get their story straight.
According to NASA, the month of August 2022 closed as Earth’s 2nd warmest on record with a temperature anomaly of 0.37C above the 1991-2020 baseline:


Global Temps for Aug, 2022 [NASA].

However, according to NOAA, last month was only Earth’s 6th warmest (0.90C above the 20th century average):


Global Temps for Aug, 2022 [NOAA].

While, according to the JMA, August 2022 globally was the 3rd warmest on record, finishing 0.28C above the 1991-2020 base:


Global Temps for Aug, 2022 [JMA].

That is a sizable discrepancy for the month of August. How? And which is it: +0.37C or +0.28C?–ignoring, for now, NOAA’s 0.90C, given that it uses a different baseline: the 20th century average rather than the 1991-2020 base that NASA and the JMA use.
I, personally, am leaning more towards the JMA as it also falls in line with what the satellites are telling us:


UAH Temperature, 1979 – Aug, 2022 [Dr Roy Spencer].

It is interesting to note –and should be for even the staunchest AGW proponent– that in these days of ‘settled science’ and ‘consensus’ calculating Earth’s average temperature still involves such a large amount of guess work, or that the data seems open to interpretation, at least.
And to that point, with the overarching narrative of the day expecting a certain outcome, demanding it even, it isn’t too far of a stretch to see a potential ‘conflict of interest’–let’s call it. Government agencies are run by human beings, after all, and human beings are fallible. Fallible human beings working for powerful government agencies is asking for trouble (just look to the CDC/FDA/FBI, and the rest).
Delving into NOAA’s data (see slideshow below), the agency continues to issue its absurd ‘Temperature Percentiles‘ map (slide 1) to the world’s mainstream media –and so in turn the public– when its ‘Temperature Departure’ map (slide 2) remains a far more accurate and far less alarming take on the exact same data:

Screenshot from 2022-09-16 06-57-56.pngScreenshot from 2022-09-16 06-58-03.png
The above maps are of the same month, they use the same data, and they are released by the same agency, yet look at the discrepancies. Look at South America, Africa, and Australia, in particular — as well as large swathes of Asia.


A lot was made of the heatwaves in China, which were undoubtedly real and hot, but the climactic equilibrium achieved by northern Asia’s cold got no mainstream mention, and neither did the entire Southern Hemisphere’s anomalous chills (due, at least in part, to Hunga Tonga’s mesospheric eruption from Jan 15).

NOAA’s tricks are on show each and every month, but appear most prominent during spells of anomalously cold. The below ‘slide 1’ is NOAA’s absurd ‘Percentiles’ press release for Feb 2021, with ‘slide 2’ the more accurate ‘Departure’ map’. As noted above the differences are stark. And when circumventing the agency’s obfuscation, and digging into the data, it is revealed that the U.S. suffered its coldest February since 1989 last year, and its 19th coldest in record books dating back to 1895 — and this even given NOAA’s “la-la-la” ignoring of the UHI.

Screenshot from 2022-09-16 06-52-16.pngScreenshot from 2022-09-16 06-52-24.png
‘Conflict of interest’ was me putting it delicately; ‘obfuscation’ is another term, but ‘outright fraud’ and ‘book cooking’ might also apply.

There are powerful interests pushing the Climate Change agenda. They are ALL in on it, which in itself should raise suspicion. Carbon credits, anyone? How about a carbon tax? Or soaring energy prices that wipe out the middle class? Isn’t it funny how modern “catastrophes” have benefited the biggest of the big guys while simultaneously crushing the 99.9%. Hilarious. COVID lead to the biggest wealth transfer (up) in human history, and now, the so-called “Climate Emergency” looks to be finishing the job.

We –my wife and I– saw much of this coming. Back in 2018 we ripped our three kids out of the UK schooling system and moved them to 8 acres of untouched land in rural Portugal. And although at times trying, it was the best ‘leap’ we ever made. It has given us our freedom/time and health back — three privileges I hadn’t experienced since I myself was a kid; and all while the children from our ‘previous life’ have been contending with lockdowns, mask/vaccine mandates, and have, by their activist-teachers, been sent out on climate marches and also tasked with coloring in flags of The Ukraine–and other such absurdities.


The simplified ‘good vs evil’ outlook on the world is a tragic disservice — it breeds dumb acceptance of propaganda. And pushings of a ‘Climate Crisis’ should be regarded as child abuse. You scare kids with your ill-informed spewings to what end? What exactly is the goal? You as an educator, or indeed you as a parent, are tasked with one job: to protect children from the horrors of the world and to see them safely to reproductive age. This is your only job, yet you’re not only failing at it, you’re failing spectacularly.

Instead of shielding children, you are instead offering them up as the shield — this is true of the climate debate, and is quite literally the case with regards to COVID ‘vaccinations’. There is NO excuse for jabbing kids with an untested gene therapy. None whatsoever. And you need to quit forcing your farcical rationale onto others. If you are hellbent on destroying your own lives with these modern-day märchens then so bloody be it. But stop dragging the rest of us down with you. I have not fallen for your brainwashed utterances. I have freed myself from ‘the system’ and so, from a distance, am seeing it far more clearly than you who remain trapped within it.


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

image-34-e1663583427233.png
Extreme Weather

Frosts Sweep France; Coldest Summer Nights Ever Recorded In Northern/Central Italy; Chilliest Sept 18 For The Netherlands; New Study Finds There Is No Climate Emergency; + ‘That’ Sunspot Has Resurrected​

September 19, 2022 Cap Allon

Frosts Sweep France

Europe is contending with a record-breaking bout of late-summer chills — a freeze that the bought-out legacy media couldn’t give two hoots about (quelle surprise!).
September frosts swept the plains of Central France over the weekend — ground frosts as well as air frosts (below 2m).
Monthly low temperature records have been set, including at Brest, although many of these new benchmarks won’t officially stand due to a change of location at the stations.
Below are four of the minimum temperatures logged Sunday morning in the French plains, courtesy of @lachainemeteo. “The entire north of the country is affected by cold/frosts“, reads the tweet:





La Chaîne Météo
@lachainemeteo

Voici les températures minimales les plus basses relevées ce dimanche matin en plaine en France. Tout le nord du pays est concerné par le #froid. Des #gelées particulièrement précoces ont été observées. https://t.co/vhWYs3B5LM


Image

1:49 AM · Sep 18, 2022
https://twitter.com/intent/like?ref...1236widget=Tweet&tweet_id=1571375935017951236
140
https://twitter.com/lachainemeteo/s...eteo2Fstatus2F1571375935017951236widget=Tweet

38

Coldest Summer Nights Ever Recorded In Northern/Central Italy

Historically cold nights have been registered across many regions of Italy in recent days. Temperatures have plunged below the freezing mark in both North AND Central regions, and at low elevations, too.

After a toasty July/August, a myriad of Italian stations have now observed their coldest nights ever recorded (prior to the fall equinox). This is exactly what a bout of prolonged low solar activity calls for: bursts of intense summer heat, followed by dramatic cool downs and fierce, Arctic winters — a setup driven by a changeable jet stream.

Low solar activity impacts Earth’s climate via a number of different mechanisms, the most notable being the reduction of energy entering the jet streams which weakens the jets’ standard straight ZONAL flow to a wavy MERIDIONAL one:



In times of meridional flow, a region’s weather is determined by which ‘side’ of the stream it is on. If it’s located ‘above’ the stream (in the NH) then it’s in for a spell of unseasonably cold conditions–as it is open to influxes of Arctic air; while conversely, if the locale is ‘under’ the jet stream then it’s set for anomalously hot conditions–as it is subject to air masses dragged up from the tropics.

A ‘wavy’ jet stream flow also increases the prevalence of swings between extremes; that is to say, intense bursts of heat will linger in one area, while a teeth-chattering chill will dominate nearby. These regions are also open to ‘flipping on a dime’ and it is this unpredictable ‘chopping and changing’ that will hasten the failure of our modern food production systems as growers fail to adapt quickly enough.
Grand Solar Minimum 101: The Future Looks Cold




The Sun is at its weakest state in more than a century, and the impacts on Earth’s weather/climate are unfolding before our eyes, whether we know it or not…


“Almost winter provisional lows this morning on the Piedmontese plain”, reads a tweet from Stefano Di Battista, who notes the low of 1.8C (35.2F) at Castell’Alfero on Sunday morning, which, although not a new monthly low –that being the 0.7C (33.3F) from Sept 27, 2020 (another sign of Europe’s cooling climate)– is the area’s coldest-ever reading prior to the equinox.

Italy’s stark summer drop-off is visualized in the chart below:




The precipitation has also returned, which is already falling as heavy snow in the Alps (and also Scandinavia):



GFS Total Snowfall (cm) Sept 19 – Oct 1 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Chilliest Sept 18 For The Netherlands

Sunday was the coldest September 18th ever recorded in The Netherlands, reports Weeronline.

The maximum temperature at the national weather station in De Bilt reached just 13.3C (55.9F), breaking the previous Sept 18 low of 13.5C (56.3F) set back in 1962.

Sunday’s high was measured at 12:40PM, after which it quickly cooled to 11.3C (52.3F)

A few locales in the east of the Netherlands were even colder, with Enschede, for example, struggling to a max of just 12.1C (53.8F).

This coming week will be cool and cloudy, according to the meteorological institute KNMI.

In fact, ‘anomalous cold’ will be the story for the majority Europe:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 17 – Sept 23 [tropicaltidbits.com].

New Study Finds There Is No Climate Emergency

Four leading Italian scientists have undertaken a major review of historical climate trends and concluded that declaring a ‘climate emergency’ is not supported by the data — another story our corrupted corporate media will be quick to bury.

The study, “A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming”, assessed time series and crisis indicators –such as hurricanes, flooding, heatwaves, crop yields, etc.– and concluded that observations show “no clear positive trends of extreme events.”

Moreover, regarding ecosystems, the scientists noted a considerable “greening” of global plant biomass in recent decades due to higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide which has increased food yields and pushing back deserts.

The four researchers, led by Gianluca Alimonti of the Italian National Institute for Nuclear Physics, found that “on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not evident yet.”

As well as physics adjunct professor Gianluca Alimonti, agrometeorologist Luigi Mariani and physics professors Franco Prodi and Renato Angelo Ricci were the paper’s other highly qualified scientists–with the latter two being signatories of the ever-growing ‘World Climate Declaration’, a petition that, 1) also asserts there is no climate emergency, 2) calls for climate science to be more scientific, and 3) demands the liberation from the “naïve belief in immature climate models … [and that] climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science”.

The study’s four scientists end with the following key message: Rather than burdening our children with anxiety regarding climate change, we should instead encourage them to think about issues like energy, food and health with a far more “objective and constructive spirit” and not waste limited resources on “costly and ineffective solutions”.



‘That’ Sunspot Has Resurrected

Just when you thought sunspot AR3088 was dead, it has been resurrected — the once decaying sunspot is growing again, adding more than 50% to its area over the weekend:



This is the sunspot’s second time around the sun. The first time, back in late-August, it peppered Earth with dozens of solar flares, and later hammered Venus with one of the strongest farside radiation storms in decades.

The sunspot reappeared on the Earthside of the sun a few days ago and was renumbered ‘AR3102’. It had appeared to be in decay, as reported here — but not so fast. Stay tuned for updates.


What’s over the horizon…?

Furthermore, a different –though potentially just as troublesome– sunspot group is approaching from just behind the sun’s southeastern limb:



We have seen it before: It is AR3089, responsible for an M-8 flare just as it exited the solar disk back in early-September.


It is now returning after a two week trip around the farside of the sun, and it looks to be even bigger than before.

Again, stay tuned for updates. That Ali Al-Rubaidi ‘prophesy’, however unlikely, remains in play:

 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

Capanna-Margherit-e1663669038203.jpg

Extreme Weather

Monte Rosa, Italy Logs Earliest Sub -20C (-4F) Ever; UK Sees Rare September Snow; Brisbane’s Coldest Winter On Record; Polar Cold Not Done With Australia Just Yet; + Rapidly Growing Sunspot​

September 20, 2022 Cap Allon

Monte Rosa, Italy Registers Earliest Sub -20C (-4F) Ever

Europe’s well-documented summer of toasty African plumes seems a distant memory as many nations now find themselves ‘above’ an increasingly weak and wavy ‘meridional‘ jet stream flow and therefor subject to frosty Arctic outbreaks.
A pair of low temperature records were recently busted at Capanna Margherita in Monte Rosa, Italy –adding to the many that fell across Italy and France over the weekend, as reported here— a weather station that was opened way back in 1899.
The mercury plunged to -21.2C (-6.2F) during the morning of Sept 17, which busted both the coldest-ever temp for the day (the -19.7C (-3.5F) set in 2013) and the date for the earliest sub -20C (-4F) in history, by a full week no less (Sept 24, 2004).
During the following night, temperatures dropped even lower, reaching -22C (-7.6F). This tied the station’s record monthly low for September set on Sept 26, 2020, serving as yet another indication that despite the mainstream narrative –and despite brief bursts of intense summer heat (driven by a wavy JS, not atmospheric CO2)– terrestrial temperatures are in fact cooling.


The Margherita hut at Monte Rosa (in winter), courtesy of Capanna Margherita/Facebook.

In addition, Europe experienced its first substantial snowfalls of the season over the weekend.
As reported by snowbrains.com, the sharp and sudden drop in temperatures across the continent was triggered by descending Arctic winds blowing in at nearly 90 mph — the first significant polar gales since April.
The Snow Brains article concludes: “We hope there is an epic ski season in the forecast after such an early cold snap.”


UK Sees Rare September Snow

The UK hasn’t been immune to mainland Europe’s early taste of winter, far from it.
To round off what has been a mostly average summer –punctuated by a few record 40Cs (the majority of which were logged at airports, topped by Heathrow’s 40.2C)– a swing between extremes has now occurred with rare September snow settling up north.
The UK’s first snows of the season have been reported on the Scottish Cairngorms.
The mountain range received a healthy dusting last Friday morning, with accumulations noted at Ben Macdui and Braeriach in the eastern highlands, according to the The National–a local media outlet.


Cairngorm summit sees summer snow [Antonio Sequeira].

Snowy weather is historically unlikely in Cairngorm in the month of September, continues The National, adding that a jet stream of cold air was to blame for the early season flurries, which transported Arctic chills unusually-far south.
Britain has been holding very cold of late, with the Met Office in recent days confirming sub-zero readings (degrees C) up and down the country, including the -1.7C (28.9F) at Shap in Cumbria.
Below is the MSM’s take on Britain’s rare September chills:
…crickets…


2022 Was Brisbane’s Coldest Winter In Recorded History

Even according to the UHI-ignoring and minimum temperature restricting Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the Australian continent is coming off the back of a colder-than-average winter (0.03C below the multidecadal norm).
Moreover, many locales experienced their coldest winters in recorded history. The benchmark-breakers in sub-tropical Queensland, for example, include the Beerburrum Forest Station and also the state capital Brisbane.
With a reading of 15.9C (60.6F), Brisbane suffered its ‘record lowest mean winter temperature’, according to the BoM’s official data — a substantial 0.9C below the average.
Cape Moreton Lighthouse and the University of Queensland Gatton were among the other QLD locales to have endured their ‘Lowest winter mean temperature for at least 20 years’, with both experiencing their coldest winters since 1990.
Also, an additional seven locations registered their ‘lowest winter mean daily maximum temperature for at least 20 years’, including Amberley AMO which comfortably busted its previous 1990 record by half a degree (C).


Polar Cold Not Done With Australia Just Yet

Staying down under, it looks as though winter’s Antarctic tailwhips are not finished with the continent (perhaps far from it).
Below are the latest GFS runs.
What they show are masses of ‘blues’ and ‘purples’ engulfing vast swathes of Australia over the next week-or-so.

Here’s Sept 21:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 21 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Sept 27:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 27 [tropicaltidbits.com].

And Sept 28:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 28 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Looking further ahead still –admittedly into the unreliable time frame– the model is hinting at a continent-wide polar blast during the first week of October:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 3 – Oct 6 [tropicaltidbits.com].

This is worth keeping a close eye on — the GFS has fared pretty well of late, even on 300+ hour forecasts.
If it plays out, a myriad of monthly cold records could fall, bringing widespread crop damage with them.


Rapidly Growing Sunspot

Sunspot AR3105 emerging over the sun’s eastern limb is growing rapidly:



We discussed this sunspot yesterday — it’s AR3089 (renamed AR3105) returning after a 2-week trip around the farside of the sun.
Instead of decaying, the old sunspot seems to be growing again, writes Dr Tony Philips over at spaceweather.com.
If this continues, it would soon pose a serious threat for Earth-directed flarings.
Stay tuned.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

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Extreme Weather

Heavy Spring Snow Sweeps South Africa; 2-Feet Buries Aussie Ski Resorts; Early-Season Flurries Hit Mt Shasta, CA; Record Frosts Persist In Europe; + Grain Prices Soar On Ukraine News​

September 21, 2022 Cap Allon

Heavy Spring Snow Sweeps South Africa

What has been a very cold Southern Hemisphere winter isn’t over yet…
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) had issued warnings for widespread spring snow this week, and conditions have not disappointed (see below) with even thundersnow noted over the Southern Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Lesotho.


Additional
SNOW swept South Africa on Tuesday [Nenad Stojanovic].

Weather warnings remain in place for snow, rain and cold, with SAWS issuing a level 5 warning for “disruptive snowfall”.
“As the upper-air cut-off low intensifies, snowfall of a more significant and disruptive nature (as much as 30cm/1ft) should be anticipated over the eastern peaks of the Lesotho Drakensberg mountains, as well as higher peaks of the Eastern Cape, in the Barkly East and Tiffindell areas,” reads a section of the recent SAWS warning.


Sandra Mountain Shadows Hotel

“Small stock farmers should provide shelter for their vulnerable livestock and cover sensitive crops,” continues the warning.
“The public would also be well-advised to keep jackets and blankets close at hand, as the weather will remain very chilly … The weak and frail will be most vulnerable since their bodies won’t be able to retain their heat as easily,” the SAWS concludes — and just as fears of ‘stage 6 load-shedding’ also mount.


2-Feet Buries Aussie Ski Resorts

After what was a record-breaking start to the season, Australian ski resorts are now registering some major late-season snow storms that, even in spring, are growing their base depths.
Starting with Perisher, another 30cm (1ft) of fresh powder settled overnight Monday, giving a storm total of 65cm (2.1ft).
“Is it really spring? It sure feels like mid-winter to us!” reads the opening lines of a recent perisher.com article. “The trees are covered and we were digging out the Skidoos this morning! The resort is absolutely covered in white, and the powder stashes are aplenty!”


Hotham Alpine Resort received similar totals — 63cm (2ft).

Thredbo saw 53cm (1.74ft).

With Falls Creek adding 52 cm (1.71ft) to its base.


The Aussie continent is coming off the back of a colder-than-average winter–an anomalous chill that is now extending through September for many, and, looking at the recent GFS runs, could actually intensify into October:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 3 – Oct 6 [tropicaltidbits.com].


Early-Season Flurries Hit Mt Shasta, CA

The recent storm that soaked Northern California also delivered early-season snow to the region’s higher-elevations.

Lassen Volcanic National Park received substantial accumulations, enough to close the park’s highway.

Elsewhere, Mount Shasta “is already looking in early-winter form”, according to activenorcal.com. The Shasta Avalanche Center reported 4 inches of fresh snow at the Old Ski Bowl, posting picture proof on Instagram:


Record Frosts Persist In Europe

Europe’s early and record-breaking taste of winter is persisting, though is still going unreported by a warm-mongering MSM.

Frosts at low elevations are continuing to sweep the continent from France to Western Russia.

Aubusson in central France, for example, suffered its third consecutive September frost yesterday morning — “il siagit d’un record”, according to @lachainemeteo on Twitter (a new record):





La Chaîne Météo
@lachainemeteo

La #fraîcheur est encore marquée ce matin, avec quelques #gelées observées entre le centre et l'est de la France. À #Aubusson (23), il s'agit de la 3ème gelée consécutive, il s'agit d'un record. https://t.co/j0ClRPeqBW


Image

2:53 AM · Sep 20, 2022

With cold weather already engulfing many European nations and with their access to natural gas from Russia cut off, rising expenses and scarce energy supplies threaten an economic “tsunami”.


This is according to Lorenzo Codogno, chief economist at LC Macro Advisors and also visiting professor at the European Institute of the London School of Economics and Political Science, who points out that the worst is yet to come.

“Right now, you have a tug-of-war between the cost-of-living crisis on the one hand, and then resilience in many sectors and aspects of the economy on the other,” said Codogno. “But if you look at the data, it’s like a tsunami is coming.”

Both consumer inflation and industrial production will be hit simultaneously, he added.

Specifically on the energy crisis, Codogno said the level of pain all depends on how much is offset by policy measures, and how much resilience is in the system: “For instance, there’s still a lot of savings in the system, and that can be used to support consumption. But we don’t know how much, and figuring that out depends on confidence, which is weakening fast.”

The longer and colder this coming winter is, the more vulnerable Europeans will be to not only higher gas prices but also to outright shortages, i.e. blackouts. The poorest, as always, will suffer the first and the most, and with such a crippling squeeze on living standards, that’s practically everyone.

Meanwhile, and as the peasants choose between heating and eating, Lord of the climate hucksters, Al –fat squirrel– Gore, is about to become the world’s first carbon-trading billionaire. If folk haven’t clocked on to the ruse by now then I’m afraid it’s too late. The asleep are now trapped paying through the nose for their energy (and the rest), and there’s little capacity to escape.


Grain Prices Soar On Ukraine News

Global wheat and corn futures surged Tuesday after news broke that occupied regions of Ukraine –likely prompted by Moscow– said they planned to hold referendums over the coming weekend on joining Russia — another indication that the conflict could be approaching its end game.

European futures led the charge, with Euronext milling wheat December contract hitting a high of €339.75/mt, up €14 on Monday’s settlement, as reported by agricensus.com. Euronext corn hit a high of €331.75/mt, up €8.25/mt on Monday’s settlement, while in the US, CME Kansas HRW futures for December were up 46 c/bu, or 5%, at $9.56/bu.

“Referendums to join Russia in occupied regions of Ukraine revive supply concerns,” one market watcher said.

Since August, the flow of grains from Ukraine has increased thanks to a UN-brokered grain corridor from the ports of Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk in the Black Sea, relieving some of the pressure on international markets.

“Either the sea [route] shuts down or more acres are lost next year,” said another source, should the urgent referendum fall in favor of said regions –Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia– joining Russia.

Many of the regions have seen Ukrainian forces make territorial gains in recent days, and western analysts see Moscow’s move as a calculated attempt to stem further advances. This proposal was the same deployed during the annexation of Crimea, with Russian politicians arguing that a vote in favor of joining Russia would mean any further Ukrainian attacks in the aforementioned four regions would be deemed an attack on Russia, rather than a counter offensive on occupied Ukraine.

“After the amendments to the constitution of our state, no future leader of Russia, no official, will be able to reverse these decisions,” the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said Tuesday.

However, and as pointed out by the AgriCensus article, it remains to be seen if the occupation authorities have enough structural control to mount a referendum.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
Just started my wood stove for the first time this season nite before last. last nite too.
checked my daily journal to see when the first wood fire of the fall season last year was: September 30. September 19 this year. 11 days early. Double that if the Winter season is longer in the spring too. So, add 22 days for the cold season here, and make sure the wood shed takes it into account. That’s close to an extra month...maybe a cold summer too. Already was a bit of a bust for the garden this last summer because of lack of rain here for much of the summer season. For the homestead, firewood and food are the foundations of a stable life. That depends on the ability to work and the weather. Things are starting to look more hardscrabble for us all...
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

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Extreme Weather

“Massive Cold Front” To Slam Australia; + NASA Used To Say This: “CO2 Would Have To Increase 10x To Achieve A 2.5-Degree Rise In Temperature”​

September 22, 2022 Cap Allon

“Massive Cold Front” To Slam Australia

Despite the 2007 AGW Party prophesy claiming that ‘rains won’t fill Australia’s dams’ due to cLiMaTe ChAnGe, this year has comfortably resigned that absurdity to the trashcan of history (as it has done with the Great Barrier Reef, too).
Heavy rains, driven by a fierce cold front, smashed the state of New South Wales (NSW) Wednesday afternoon, precipitation that brought Sydney on the brink of its wettest year on record.
For the fourth time this month alone, flooded regions stretching throughout inland NSW are, once again, being lashed by torrential rain, reports skynews.com.au, delivering, once again, the risk of major and widespread flooding.
Heavy falls have reached the NSW Central West, where the flash flood risk stretches from Coonamble to Forbes, smack-bang on top of the already flooded Macquarie and Lachlan rivers — warnings are now in place for renewed major flooding for these rivers, with the flood threat traversing east with the rain overnight and into Thursday.


For Sydney, 40mm (1.6 inches) is expected by Saturday — helping the Harbor City to creep to within just 100mm (3.9 inches) of its wettest year on record with more than three months still to go in 2022. [Sky News Australia]


Dr Tim Flannery, ‘the 2007 Australian of the Year’, was one of the first activist-scientists to warn of the existential threat posed by ‘Terrifying Terra Firma Broiling’ and was the man responsible for the 2007 predicted that ‘rains won’t fill Australia’s dams’.
Despite his clear and abject failures, however, Flannery remains ordained –and so protected– by the AGW Party, and said just last year that he feels totally “vindicated”. Really now… Here’s exactly what Flannery told ABC News back in 2007:

“We’re already seeing the initial impacts and they include a decline in the winter rainfall zone across southern Australia, which is clearly an impact of climate change, but also a decrease in run-off. Although we’re getting say a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that’s translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That’s because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that’s a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we’re going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation.”

Vindicated…? What a complete –and arguably mentally ill– disconnect from reality; or is it rather that Flannery feels untouchable following the ordainment, so sacrosanct that even the fabric of reality can’t interfere with him.
In reality, though –where I seek to root myself– not only has 2022 been the wettest/near-wettest year on record for many Aussie locales, it has also delivered a colder-than-average winter for the country as a whole, with a few regions, including Queensland’s state capital, Brisbane, actually enduring their coldest winters in recorded history.
The winter season opened with record-breaking snow, too — the best start to a ski season ever, in fact; and even now, at the end of September, feet upon feet of powder is still clipping the continent’s ranges, building the snow depth:


This is a reality that not only jars with Fannery’s ‘dams won’t fill’ nonsense but one that also disproves the global warming hypothesis as a whole. The last time I checked, it has to be cold to snow, and by now, by 2022, cold/snow should be a very rare and exciting event; but instead, cold/snow is actually forecast to persist as the calendar flips to October, intensify even:


Wow:
GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies Sept 27 – Oct 5 [tropicaltidbits.com].


NASA Used To Say This: “CO2 Would Have To Increase 10x To Achieve A 2.5-Degree Rise In Temperature”

The chemistry and physics of carbon dioxide DOES NOT support the global warming theory, and NASA was aware of this way-back when the notion of wielding climate science as a controlling weapon was but a twinkle in a young Al Gore’s eye.
In the early 1970s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration had a strong and consistent theory regarding the trace gas that is carbon dioxide: “The amount of atmospheric CO2 would have to increase 10 times to achieve a 2.5-degree rise in temperature,” scientists at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies were reported as saying in October, 1972. “More CO2 wouldn’t raise the temperature any further because the gas would have reached its absorption limit,” the researchers added.
This “absorption limit” is one of the most critical points in the AGW myth.
Alarmists’ linear thinking tells them the more carbon dioxide you add to the atmosphere the hotter it will get, but this is a scientifically-baseless assumption, a li(n)e that has been amplified by the dippy-eco-journalists (non-scientists) of the world who wouldn’t recognize a nefarious controlling agenda if it kicked them square up the arse.
A paper published in 1971 by NASA scientists Rasool and Schneider entitled, “Atmospheric carbon dioxide and aerosols: Effects of large increases on global climate” explains why the alarmists’ assumption is fundamentally wrong.
Below is a key paragraph lifted directly from the study:
“From our calculations, a doubling of CO2 produces a tropospheric temperature change of 0.8-degree. However, as more CO2 is added to the atmosphere, the rate of temperature increase is proportionally less and less, and the increase levels off. Even for an increase in CO2 by a factor of 10, the temperature increase does not exceed 2.5-degree. Therefore, the runaway greenhouse effect does not occur because the 15-um CO2 band, which is the main source of absorption, “saturates,” and the addition of more CO2 does not substantially increase the infrared opacity of the atmosphere.”
AGW proponents used to talk their way around this absorption spanner in the works by claiming that the remaining “unsubstantial” CO2-driven temperature increase would cause a chain reaction of other factors resulting in what amounted to runaway warming. However, the clock has long run out on that hokey theory — this prophesied chain reaction has been proven false by observation, and, therefore, it has largely been retired from the discussion.
To conclude, here is one key final point (and accompanying graph) from the Rasool and Schneider paper: “the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.”



Ah, the 1970s — a time before TPTB politicized climate science and used it to control an intentionally and increasingly dumbed-down populous–at least climate science of the ‘warming’ variety, that is…

 

alpha

Veteran Member
Just started my wood stove for the first time this season nite before last. last nite too.
checked my daily journal to see when the first wood fire of the fall season last year was: September 30. September 19 this year. 11 days early. Double that if the Winter season is longer in the spring too. So, add 22 days for the cold season here, and make sure the wood shed takes it into account. That’s close to an extra month...maybe a cold summer too. Already was a bit of a bust for the garden this last summer because of lack of rain here for much of the summer season. For the homestead, firewood and food are the foundations of a stable life. That depends on the ability to work and the weather. Things are starting to look more hardscrabble for us all...
Jed, I couldn't agree more with your prognostication! We usually burn about four cords but always keep another one or two ready, 'just in case'. I always look forward to lighting up the stove since I sleep on the recliner across from it and really love to fall asleep watching the glowing embers. Besides, with my arthritis, I can't deal with the stairs very well in the middle of the night so the dog and I get the first floor. A full woodpile and hayloft spells contentment on a farm.
We had a very good crop of vegetables this year and we put up most of it in preparation for availability issues from outside sources. If I can get my heifer bred before Thanksgiving, everything will be less stressful in preps for next year.
I guess the bottom line of this entire post is that I've had it with all the weird goings on in the world and I'm ready to settle on down for the Winter... let it snow!
 

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
Jed, I couldn't agree more with your prognostication! We usually burn about four cords but always keep another one or two ready, 'just in case'. I always look forward to lighting up the stove since I sleep on the recliner across from it and really love to fall asleep watching the glowing embers. Besides, with my arthritis, I can't deal with the stairs very well in the middle of the night so the dog and I get the first floor. A full woodpile and hayloft spells contentment on a farm.
We had a very good crop of vegetables this year and we put up most of it in preparation for availability issues from outside sources. If I can get my heifer bred before Thanksgiving, everything will be less stressful in preps for next year.
I guess the bottom line of this entire post is that I've had it with all the weird goings on in the world and I'm ready to settle on down for the Winter... let it snow!
“A full woodpile and hayloft spells contentment on a farm”
best feeling ever: Ready for a long winter!
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

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Articles

How The Greenland Ice Sheet ‘REALLY’ Fared This Year​

September 23, 2022 Cap Allon
The Greenland ice sheet’s melt season is over, bringing the 2021-2022 season to a close. Below I take a deep-dive into how the poster boy for global warming fared over the past 12-months.

‘Surface’ Mass Balance

Greenland’s ice sheet gains snow and ice from September through to the following June, and then, as temperatures climb with onset of late-Spring, begins to lose more ice through surface melt than it gains from fresh snowfall. This is known as ‘the melt season’, which generally lasts until the end of August, with snow gains minus ice losses called the ‘Surface Mass Balance’ (SMB).
The map below, courtesy of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), plots the SMB over the past 12-months.
The blue line in the upper chart shows the day-to-day SMB (in Gigatons), while the blue line in the lower chart depicts the accumulated SMB (again, in Gts), from the beginning of the season (Sept 1 2021). The grey line is the multidecadal average.

SMB_curves_LA_EN_20220829.png


[DMI]


This year –that is, Sept 1 2021 to Aug 31 2022– the Greenland ice sheet achieved a Surface Mass Balance of approximately 471Gt, ranking it as the 10th highest SMB year in data extending back to 1981.


2022 Melt Season

The summer of 2022 was anomalously cold and snowy across Greenland and was book-ended by huge snowfall events.
The first came in June, delaying the melt season by 17-days vs the 1981-2021 median; and the second brought seasonal melting to an abrupt stop in mid-August after a record-breaking 20bn tonnes (Gt) of snow accumulated on the south of the island.
This summer chimed with last years; that is, it was characterized by several monstrous, record-smashing snowfall events. Fresh snow reflects sunlight better than the old, darker glacial ice underneath; and as a result, the onset of melting, which is defined as the first day of three days in a row where the SMB is less than -1Gt, was on June 30, two-and-a-half weeks later than normal.
The end of August 2022 was then marked by truly mammoth snow event. More than 8Gts was added on Aug 30 alone, an unprecedented amount for summer–visualized below by the dramatic-looking ‘spike’ at the end of the DMI’s SMB chart:



The reason for these persistently cold and wet conditions across the Greenland ice sheet is linked to “atmospheric blocking”–a phenomenon shown to increase during times of low solar activity (such as the historically low output we’re experiencing now).
For much of the summer, a high-pressure blocking system stalled over Western Europe, leading to many nations experiencing record-breaking heatwaves. And far out to the west, across the pond, blocking systems also formed over Western Canada and the US. These setups altered the jet stream’s flow, reverting its usual straight (zonal) course to a wavy (meridional) one. The jet effectively ‘buckled’ with Greenland situated in the middle, on the ‘upper’ side of a southerly-plunging jet which saw it subject to influxes of frigid Arctic air; while, conversely, W Europe and the US found themselves located ‘below’ a northerly-arching jet, meaning they were open to rising tropical warm.


Map showing cold weather in Greenland and heat over North America/Western Europe in mid-July 2022 [DMI]. Note also the descending chills in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe/Western Russia (also Alaska and Northern Siberia).

The below graphic aims to clarify the general setup.
And as hinted at above, the prevalence of this ‘wavy’ jet stream setup increases during times of low solar activity. In short, with less energy entering the system, the usually-rigid west-to-east flowing jet weakens and its shape becomes Omega (Ω) or ‘meridional’. It is this mechanism –or more specifically its upshot, i.e. erratic weather patterns– that today’s activist-scientists broadly label ‘climate change’: A weakened jet stream caused by low solar activity.



MSM Obfuscation

Refocusing on Greenland, despite this year’s ‘healthy’ melt season, obfuscation was abound across the mainstream media.
CNN wrote the following in July 20 article: “The amount of ice that melted in Greenland between July 15 and 17 was enough to fill 7.2 million Olympic-sized swimming pools, or cover the entire state of West Virginia with a foot of water.”
They even have a quote from cLiMaTe ScIeNtIsT Ted Scambos: “The northern melt this past week is not normal, looking at 30 to 40 years of climate averages. But melting has been on the increase, and this event was a spike in melt.”
CNN is screaming about this period of melting (circled below):


[DMI]

I’ve already given you the data regarding the season as a whole.
The audacity of CNN to claim that the 2022 melt season was in anyway alarming is cherry-picking obfuscation at best and outright fraud at worst. Even the staunchest of AGW proponents must see this–the propaganda can’t be that blinding, surely?


‘Total’ Mass Balance

The ‘Surface’ Mass Balance (SMB) is just one of three components when it comes to determining an ice sheet’s overall ‘health’ –its ‘Total’ Mass Balance (TMB)– with the others being the ‘Marine’ Mass Balance (MMB) and the “Basal’ Mass Balance (BMB).
In Greenland’s case, the MMB consists of the breaking off –or ‘calving’– of icebergs as well as the melting of glaciers that meet the warmer sea water. While the BMB, although largely unimpactful, refers to ice losses from the base of the ice sheet mainly caused by frictional effects and ground heat flux.
The components of the Total Mass Balance going back to 1987 are shown below — CNN pay close heed. The SMB is shown in blue, the MMB in green, the BMB in yellow and, most importantly, the TMB is marked in red.


Chart showing the surface (blue), marine (green), basal (yellow) and total (red) mass balances for 1987 to 2022 (in Gt p/year). Credit: Mankoff et al. (2021–updated to include 2022).

This is the official data. Every news outlet has access to it. And what it unambiguously shows is, well, not a lot, certainly nothing to write home about, and most-certainly nothing ‘catastrophic’.
The TMB (red line) did indeed decrease between 1996 to 2012; however, the trend has very clearly shifted since then, to one of overall growth. This is more clearly depicted in the next chart (which doesn’t yet include 2022’s higher reading):



Now, I’m not sat here scratching my head pondering why the MSM works so desperately hard to obfuscate. I’m not naive. Unalarming Greenland data does not serve the doom and gloom agenda and reporting on it honestly on would risk stopping the intravenous-dispensation of fear that requires constantly administering to the masses in order to be effective, in order to force through their controlled demolition of society–that now appears fully underway.
This
is what the MSM are tasked with nowadays, perhaps it has always been the case — a population forever scared, always looking over their shoulder for the next ‘catastrophe’ that threatens to upend and ruin them are far easier to keep under the thumb, to marshal, to own, to control. It’s a travesty.
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

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Articles

Greenland Gained *More* Record Snow/Ice Over The Weekend; + Australia Is Deindustrializing (‘Doing A Europe’) Even Though Its Temperature Dataset Shows No Change​

September 26, 2022 Cap Allon

Greenland Gained *More* Record Snow/Ice Over The Weekend

Following Friday’s article, which showed that Greenland’s ice sheet fared well last season –and has been faring well, despite mainstream proclamations to the contrary, since 2013– the island has, once again, gone and posted record snow/ice gains.
Greenland’s surface gained an impressive 8 Gigatons of mass on Friday, Sept 23…



…only to then outdo itself the following day by registering an unprecedented gain (for the time of year–but almost for any time of the year) of approximately 10 Gigatons on Saturday, Sept 24.
All charts come courtesy of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI).



Below is a look at what these record SMB gains have done to the sheet’s ‘Accumulated Surface Mass Balance’.
This fledgling season (blue line) is not only comfortably above the mean (grey line) but has nudged above the deviations, too.



As discussed on Friday, last season (Sept 1, 2021 to Aug 31, 2022) the Greenland ice sheet achieved a Surface Mass Balance of approximately 471Gt, ranking it as the 10th highest SMB year in data extending back to 1981.
And the Total Mass Balance (TMB) –the calculation determining the overall ‘health’ of the glacier (after taking into account ‘calving’ etc.)– shows that an unalarming trend is continuing to develop across ‘The Poster Boy For Global Warming’:


Chart showing the surface (blue), marine (green), basal (yellow) and total (red) mass balances for 1987 to 2022 (in Gt p/year). Credit: Mankoff et al. (2021–updated to include 2022).

Looking at the years 1987 through 2022, things have remained largely unchanged.
And while TMB (red line above) did decrease between 1996 to 2012, the trend has no clearly shifted since then back to one of growth. This is more clearly depicted in the next chart (which doesn’t yet include 2022’s higher reading):



For more a deep-dive into all this, click the link below:


Australia Is Deindustrializing (‘Doing A Europe’) Even Though Its Temperature Dataset Shows No Change

Speaking of things remaining ‘largely unchanged’, here’s a look at Australia’s average temperature over the past decade, as measured by the satellites.



Despite this unambiguous datapoint however the Aussie government is advancing its dangerous Net Zero agenda — a bunch of policies so stupid and dangerous that they threatens the prosperity and well-being of its entire population.
It’s ‘doing a Europe’, as it’s now known — it’s deindustrializing. The coal-rich nation is making its cheap and reliable energy –the backbone of its modern civilization’s success– expensive and unreliable. Welcome to fuel poverty, Australia — a fast-track back to pre-industrial times, a throwing away of everything you –and the collective we– have built over the past two centuries.
And while I believe that our ‘career politicians’ are stupid enough to implement these measures in the belief that they are morally right (or at least popular enough to see them retain their government positions), the puppet masters above the scene most certainly know the full ramifications of such malevolent actions.
This is a controlled demolition of the developed world. It has to be. But to what end? Well, take your pick. Depopulation makes sense. But again, to what end? Well, then I would guess control. It always boils down to control. Control means power, and vice-versa.
If Europe suffers a harsh winter –which all current signs point to playing out– then the lights will go out, people won’t be able to heat their homes, and the excess deaths could run well-north of a million. I mean that.
People are wholly reliant on ‘the system’ to simply function let alone survive, and the system has been wholly digitized, from just-in-time food/medicine deliveries to heating a pan of water. Over the years, we have been lulled into a false sense of security. Cheap electricity has shielded us from the fierce wrath of nature, but that shield is now being lowered, intentionally, to my mind.
Net Zero, if you strip it back, means exporting manufacturing and importing energy, which makes a country, or indeed a continent in the case of Europe, reliant on nations such as Russia, China, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to meet its economic needs — and all for the illogical virtue-signalling return of being able to say ‘we didn’t burn the coal ourselves and so therefore are green’.
Life is very hard for logical people right now.
If you avoided the jab, then congrats. If you’ve achieved energy and food security for your family, then hats off. But what’s next… Great Depression? WWIII? We need these ludicrous foot-shooting endeavors to cease already. But the dominoes are falling and it’s anyone’s guess where and how they stop.
The world is spiraling. And with things not looking so good, family is more crucial than ever. We should all work on building a support network, we’re all surely going to need one. We should also ditch the partisan politics, for those who still fall for such drama, as it’s the gravest of grave unmatters.
Taking the U.S., for example, on the face of it Trump would have done a better job than Biden –that’s fair– but that’s only on the face of it — the overall game would have remained unchanged.
Like the new King of England, Charles III, the POTUS has very limited political sway. The position is a front. This is well established. Just look at what happened during Trump’s time in office: Pandemic, lockdowns, vaccine rollout — these ALL occurred on his ‘watch’ and for all the popular policy tweaks and ‘swamp draining’ sound bites the overall game remained utterly unchanged.
It doesn’t matter who’s in power. A lot of people know this already. But it stands that a great many still don’t. And for those folk who tune into CNN or Fox and find themselves spitting their TV dinner at the screen whenever the face of the opposition is offered up, just know that you’re engaging in a pantomime, nothing but a show and distraction, while behind the scenes the game rolls on regardless, utterly unchanged…
…much like the average temperature Down Under:

 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

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Articles

Of 68 Global Warming Models The Observed Temperature Is Running *BELOW* 67 Of Them​

September 27, 2022 Cap Allon
The claim by the Biden Administration that cLiMaTe ChAnGe has placed us in a moment of “profound crisis” is based on computer model simulations that have manufactured warming rates of at least double those observed in the last 40+ years.
This is according to Dr. Roy Spencer, climatologist and former NASA scientist, who also points out that just about every climate claim made by politicians and activist-scientists alike has been either an exaggeration or an outright lie.
Real-world observations are in stark disagreement with the “official” climate models being promoted for the purposes of implementing expensive, economically-damaging, and poverty-worsening energy policies.
Let’s take Global Ocean Temperatures as one example–with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) providing our best gauge of how fast this supposed extra energy is accumulating in the climate system.
The 42 years of observations since 1979 (black line on the chart below) shows that warming is occurring far more slowly than the models said it would. The ERSSTv5, one of the top-cited datasets, reveals that Earth’s oceans have warmed at ≈50% the rate official climate projections foretold.
In fact, there has been barely any warming.


68x CMIP6 climate model simulations of global average sea surface temperature (relative to the 5 year average, 1979-1983), compared to observations from the ERSSTv5 dataset (aka the reality).

To put it even more clearly –so alarmists can take it in– of the 68 model simulations that have been generated over the years, 67 are ABOVE the current observations, with the majority significantly above, by over a full 1 deg. C in some cases.
The global warming hypothesis has failed, that is clear for all to see. It isn’t science that’s propping the charade up; rather, this is a political and ideological movement, one that after decades of relentless propaganda now has a large percentage of western populations fooled and radically onboard.
Helpfully, Dr. Spencer has provided us with another graph that might drag a few ‘brainwashed pawns’ back from that precipice.
In terms of the linear temperature trends since 1979, the image below shows that the two top-cited ocean temperature datasets –i.e. those based on observations– have trends at the bottom range of climate model simulations:


Linear temperature trends, 1979-2020, for the various model and observational datasets, plus the HadSST3 observational record.

This should be a ‘head in hands’ moment for the climate modelers.
But humility has never proved their strong point.


Deep Ocean Warming Could Be Natural

Furthermore, a related issue here is how much the deep oceans are warming.
The inarguable energy imbalance associated with deep-ocean warming in recent decades is only about 1 part (less than 1 Watt per sq. m) in 300 of the natural energy flows in the climate system.
This is a minuscule energy imbalance.
We know precisely NONE of the natural energy flows to that level of accuracy, adds Dr. Spencer, meaning global warming could be mostly/entirely natural and we wouldn’t even know it:
“[There is a] level of faith involved in the adjustments made to climate models, which necessarily produce warming due to increasing CO2 because those models simply assume that there is no other source of warming. Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us.”
Dr. Roy Spencer concludes: “There is no Climate Emergency.”

 

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Extreme Weather

Chile’s Chilly August; Greece Logs Coldest Sept Temp Ever (Lows Also Fall In Crete); Record Cold To Blast Australia–As ABC Attempts To Dismiss The Continent’s “Bumper Snow Season”​

September 28, 2022 Cap Allon

Chile’s Chilly August

August 2022 in Chile was another colder-than-average month–barring a handful of locations in the south.
The below graph comes courtesy of DMC Meteochile.
It shows that some regions suffered months a full deg. C below the norm, including Calama and Valdivia.



This year delivered an exceptionally cold and snow winter to Chile.
Back in July, record-smashing snowstorms trapped hundreds of truckers on the border between Argentina and Chile…





Real MiBaWi (2nd)
@Michael45231497

07/09/2022 - Hundreds of people have been snowed in since Saturday near the Los Libertadores border crossing between #Argentina and #Chile. At least three hundred cars, trucks and buses are stuck in a snow-covered white landscape. https://t.co/EX11qHLIlc


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BRAVE SPIRIT
@Brave_spirit81

SubscribeTELEGRAM: BRAVE SPIRIT A border crossing between Chile and Argentina is being cleared after heavy snow stranded more than 400 people. https://t.co/9yqQ1IXAjJ


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12:55 PM · Jul 12, 2022
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…conditions that helped fire South America’s snow extent to all-time highs:


The GMASI Snow Trackers are derived from combined observations of METOP AVHRR, MSG SEVIRI, GOES Imager and DMSP SSMIS. The Global Multisensor Snow/Ice Cover Map (GMASI) algorithm is fully automated. It is a NOAA/NESDIS product.


The unprecedented accumulations were captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite (shown below), snowfall that all-but erased a decade-long drought that climate alarmists were only recently caterwauling over. But this is always issue when being led by baseless yet rigid ideologies — that is, egg on your face.

To give some context, the coastal city of La Serena –for example– had a year-to-date rainfall deficit of about 80%, but after July’s snowstorms, the city now has a 64% surplus. And shifting farther inland, Santiago’s rainfall deficit improved from 70% to 27%.


Andes snow, July 16, 2022 [NASA].

Looking ahead, much of the South American continent is set for additional Antarctic outbreaks, even into the tropics, with nations such as Paraguay, Bolivia, Uruguay, Argentina, southern Brazil, and also Chile set for further polar poundings this week.


Greece Logs Coldest Sept Temp Ever

Exceptional cold has swept the Balkans as well as Northern Greece in recent days.

The Greek town of Florina saw its thermometers drop to -1.4C (29.5F) over the weekend. This was a new record low for September, easily usurping the previous benchmark — the -1C (20.2F) set back in 1977.

While even more impressively, the village of Vovousa recently notched a reading of -1.6C (29.1F), which has entered the books as the lowest temperature ever recorded in a inhabited region of Greece during the month of September.


(Lows Also Fall In Crete)

Low temperature records were also toppled across the Greek Island of Crete.

Tzermiado suffered 1.7C (35F), Embaros observed 3.1C (37.6F), Vryses logged 6.8C. (43F), while Agioi Pantes saw 7.1C (44.8F),

Exceptional lows were registered on Zakyntos Island, with Sarakinado station logging 7.1C.


Record Cold To Blast Australia–As ABC Attempts To Dismiss The Continent’s “Bumper Snow Season”

Fierce cold is set to grip the majority if the Aussie continent this week.

The GFS is forecasting temperature anomalies of as much as -20C below the multidecadal norm for swathes of the country, with feet upon feet of late-season snow clipping the nation’s higher elevations:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Sept 28 – Oct 1 [tropicaltidbits.com].

While here’s Oct 2:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 1 [tropicaltidbits.com].

And Oct 9:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 9 [tropicaltidbits.com].

This spring freeze is arriving hot off the heels of a colder-than-average winter Down Under (BoM), during which some locales –such as Queensland’s state capital, Brisbane— suffered their coldest winters in recorded history. And adding the knock-out-blow to the AGW Party’s faltering cLiMaTe ChAnGe narrative is the reality that it was also a historically snowy season across the continent.

Well, that should be the knock-out-blow; frustratingly though, The Party is refusing to admit defeat and is instead returning a few wild, desperate swings — such as this one: “Australia’s bumper snow season conceals a worrying trend,” reads an abc.net.au damage limitation article dated Sept 26.

Apparently, the nation’s maximum snow depth, which indeed indicated a bumper year, “doesn’t tell the entire story.”

Above average snowfall at ALL of Australia’s higher-elevated ski resorts isn’t good enough for the government funded ABC, which seems to suggests that the only way Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming can be avoided is if above average snow depth is registered EVERYWHERE SIMULTANEOUSLY, including at the lower situated resorts.

The ABC article admits that Spencers Creek, which sits at roughly 300m (984ft) above the natural snow line, “has actually seen four above average seasons in the past six” with this year seeing accumulations finish some 65cm (26 inches) above the norm…


[Snowy Hydro]

…but then the rag switches its focus to Deep Creek which, after a record-breaking start to the 2022 season, closed with a snow depth approximately 29cm (11 inches) below the average:


[Snowy Hydro]

The ABC states that only one of the past six years at Deep Creek has observed above average snowfall –a tactic known as ‘cherry picking’, given the bumper seasons logged almost everywhere else that compensate (and then some) for the comparatively paltry losses logged at this one small resort– but the rag runs with this misleading claptrap, taking more illogical leaps as it goes.

“Climate change is clearly hurting the lower resorts and lower slopes and based on projections the decline in snow, both peak depth and length of season, is likely to continue and expand to the higher slopes during the coming decades.”

Note how the rag is forced to use projections (i.e. bogus climate models) to draw its ‘catastrophic’ conclusions, rather than the real world data they have at hand which, inconveniently for them, indicates that Australia’s snowfall, overall, has been increasing in recent years.

“A 2017 CSIRO report predicted the Australian season will shrink by at least 20 to 55 days by 2050 and possibly by up to 80 days under a worst-case scenario … While our snow seasons will most likely continue to show high inter-annual variability, the bumper years, particularly for lower resorts are quickly melting away,” concludes the ABC article, completely sidestepping the fact that the now 5-year-old CSIRO report is, given the recent bumper years, already proving hopelessly inaccurate.

Lessons in how not to formulate an honest and data-driven essay, brought to you by the increasingly deluded corporate media.


Also, yesterday saw yet more bad news hit Europe:





Electroverse
@Electroversenet

Europe will not be receiving gas through the Nord Stream this winter. Leaks have 'appeared' on both 1 & 2 pipelines, and gas is bubbling into the Baltic Sea. Not a coincidence. Prepare. Winter is coming. https://t.co/nuYnNe0eLC


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The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 
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