WEATHER Farmer’s Almanac predicts intense cold polar winter

[Jubilee on Earth]

Guess I was right about the signs I was seeing here in the upper Great Lakes!

http://www.fox5ny.com/news/polar-coaster-winter-farmers-almanac-predicts-intense-cold-snowfall-to-come-in-2019-20


‘Polar Coaster Winter': Farmers' Almanac predicts intense cold, snowfall to come in 2019-20

LEWISTON, Maine - A harsh winter is coming, according to the 2020 Farmers' Almanac.

The almanac released its extended weather forecast predicting a “Polar Coaster Winter” that will make for plenty of freezing temperatures and snowfall in most of the country this season.

The coldest temperatures are expected in late January, which will likely affect millions of people living in the northern plains all the way to the Great Lakes. Temperatures in the plains areas could dip as low as -40 degrees, according to the almanac.

Between Jan. 4 -7 and 12-15, many parts of the country could see “copious amounts of snow, rain, sleet and ice.” A storm system moving through the U.S. could also cause temperatures to “plummet and drag the coldest Arctic air across the rest of the country into the beginning of February.”

Peter Geiger, an editor for the periodical, said the 2019-20 winter season will be intense.

“We expect yet another wild ride this winter with extreme temperature swings and some hefty snowfalls,” he said.

In the mountain areas, there will be “freezing, frigid and frosty” temperatures, according to the almanac.

The western-third part of the country will see a milder, near-normal set of winter temperatures and rain, according to the forecast. It is also predicting above-average winter rain over the eastern-third of the country, the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes areas.

Pacific Northwest and Southwest regions will see near-average rainfall.

But colder-than-average temperatures will hit the northeast as well as above-average rainfall.

The forecast also predicts a “wintry mix of rain (and) sleet – especially along the coast.”

Spring is expected to start by mid-to-late April, according to the almanac.

The editors of Farmers’ Almanac use “a specific and reliable set of rules” that were created back in 1818 by David Young, the first editor of the almanac, to predict weather conditions for the U.S.

According to the periodical, the rules have been altered over time and turned into a “formula that is both mathematical and astronomical.”

Farmers’ Almanac further explains that the only person who knows “the exact formula” is the weather prognosticator who goes by Caleb Weatherbee. His identity, as well as the full formula, remain a “closely guarded brand secret.”

 

[Shooter]

I been wondering how much that russian volcano throwing a lot of ash in the air, would effect the weather in the artic.

 

[Dennis Olson]

Winters are cold, summers are hot.

 

[von Koehler]

Winters are cold, summers are hot.

Except in a Grand Solar Minimum; they are a record-setting colder in Winter and hotter in Summer.
It all depends on the shifts of the jet stream.

von Koehler

 

[Publius]

Except in a Grand Solar Minimum; they are a record-setting colder in Winter and hotter in Summer.
It all depends on the shifts of the jet stream.

von Koehler

Most are not paying attention to these weather patterns and yeah we've had some wild swings in the jet stream.
Right now with the resent events that have taken place the game is afoot no telling what mother nature will allow old man winter bring upon us

 

[ambereyes]

It was 116 here yesterday please hurry up winter!!!

 

[Jubilee on Earth]

Winters are cold, summers are hot.

LOL. In Michigan, summer’s are cool, spring and fall are cold, and winter is brutal. I can’t say I’ve ever been “hot” living here. At least not in the past decade.

 

[20Gauge]

It looks like we have a wet winter. The cold doesn't look too bad, I should be able to overwinter the plants. YEAH!!!!

 

[Cardinal]

Sounds a lot like the places that are usually cold and snowy, will be cold and snowy.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

Except in a Grand Solar Minimum; they are a record-setting colder in Winter and hotter in Summer.
It all depends on the shifts of the jet stream.

von Koehler

And some of those records can be disastrous. I still remember last winter, with two full days below zero. Not OVERNIGHT below zero, but all day, all night, 48 straight hours.

 

[bw]

Sounds a lot like the places that are usually cold and snowy, will be cold and snowy.

Say it ain't so!

 

[bw]

And some of those records can be disastrous. I still remember last winter, with two full days below zero. Not OVERNIGHT below zero, but all day, all night, 48 straight hours.

In Minnesota that would pass for humor. Where are you?

 

[Profit of Doom]

Winters are cold, summers are hot.

...and in breaking news, water is still wet, and liberals are still stupid...

 

[Profit of Doom]

Except in a Grand Solar Minimum; they are a record-setting colder in Winter and hotter in Summer.
It all depends on the shifts of the jet stream.

von Koehler

As I understand it, a GSM cools the entire atmosphere slightly, contracting and causing the jet streams to squirm around from compression. This brings cold air down and warm air up, relative to normal weather. Is that about it?

 

[Cohickman]

And some of those records can be disastrous. I still remember last winter, with two full days below zero. Not OVERNIGHT below zero, but all day, all night, 48 straight hours.

I'm guessing you have never been to Alaska. LOL

 

[naturallysweet]

We had bipolar temperature swings this summer. I expect it to continue. Averages can be deceptive.

 

[SouthernBreeze]

Any chance of a snowy winter down South?

 

[FireDance]

Any chance of a snowy winter down South?

You have to ask. Probably ice. That’s what I guess. Sigh.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

In Minnesota that would pass for humor. Where are you?

Michigan. I'm used to single-digit overnight lows, sure, and in February I consider "freezing" pleasantly warm, but we don't see a lot of multi-day sub-zero. Maybe the Yoopers do, but I'm a troll from down below.

 

[packyderms_wife]

76F with 38% humidity here this afternoon. Went out to pick tomatoes and cucumbers for tabooli and noticed the maple trees next door have tinges of red on their edges. That's a whole month early for leaf color changes here in central Iowa.

 

[kenny1659]

100F with 93% humidity now, would very much like some cooler weather.

 

[WalknTrot]

I like that old yellow Farmer's Almanac, because it always has good articles and fun facts, and it looks cool hanging on my Grandpa's old coffee grinder that still hangs on my kitchen wall....where his almanac always hung...

But as far as weather predictions go, they are as far off or as close as a coin toss.

 

[von Koehler]

As I understand it, a GSM cools the entire atmosphere slightly, contracting and causing the jet streams to squirm around from compression. This brings cold air down and warm air up, relative to normal weather. Is that about it?

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/airs/20190131/PIA22823-16.gif

Above model shows how cold air masses sinking down from the polar region conflicts with hot air masses advancing northwards from the equator. During a solar minimum, the jet stream’s usual Zonal Flow (a west-east direction) reverts to more of a Meridional Flow (a "looping" north-south direction) — this is exaggerated further during a Grand Solar Minimum, like the one we’re entering now, and explains why regions become unseasonably hot or cold and others unusually dry or rainy, with the extremes lasting for an extended period of time.

https://thegrandsolarminimum.freeforums.net/thread/2/grand-solar-minimum?page=1

There are about 1,600 posts about the Grand Solar Minimum at this forum; especially informative if you are interested in the science behind the theory.

von Koehler

 

[Cacheman]

The Old Farmers Almanac is out with their predictions too...

 

[Groucho]

Winters are cold, summers are hot.

OH FOR CRYIN' OUT LOUD! At least you could have given a spoiler alert!!

 

[Trivium Pursuit]

Thanks! The OLD Farmers Almanac was the one my ex trusted for years to plan family gatherings by. Not always correct, but more often than not, IIRC.

 

[Pinecone]

I want to know what "Wet (or worse!)" means. I'll have to go buy my annual copy when I see one in the stores.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

The Old Farmers Almanac is out with their predictions too...

Am I reading this right? Most of Michigan is "mild with soakers"?

 

[ambereyes]

The Old Farmers Almanac is out with their predictions too...

Looks good for us. Garden is going to do great!!

 

[Cacheman]

Am I reading this right? Most of Michigan is "mild with soakers"?

Seems that way, I have no idea what winter could be for me in Wisconsin, I live almost where the three colors meet.

 

[Pinecone]

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/winter-forecast-for-seattle-wet-or-worse

Winter Forecast for Seattle: Wet... or worse?

by Scott Sistek | KOMONews.com Meteorologist Tuesday, August 27th 2019



SEATTLE -- If you're one who wonders what could be worse than a wet winter in Western Washington, the Old Farmer's Almanac says this winter just might be the time to find out.

The centuries-old weather prognosticator (among other handy tidbits) is out with its annual winter forecast and has some flake news for much of the Pacific Northwest, calling Western Washington and Oregon's winter "Wet... or worse!" and that the eastern half of Washington will be among northern states inundated with a "parade of snowstorms."

2019-2020 Winter Forecast from Old Farmer's Almanac (almanac.com)





"The 2020 Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for frequent snow events—from flurries to no fewer than seven big snowstorms from coast to coast," writes Janice Stillman with the Old Farmer's Almanac. "This snow-verload will include storms pummeling Washington state and points eastward across the northern-tier states into Michigan."

Then she invoked a snow wound/celebration that is still fresh in the minds of Seattleites.

"For the normally rain-soaked Northwest, this could mean a repeat of last winter’s record-breaking extremes, including the Snowpocalypse that dumped 20.2 inches on Seattle in February."

Wow, Okay. Just a friendly reminder -- racing to the store right now to stock up on bread is pointless since it will go stale long before winter.

(But if you want to practice stocking up, no store manager is going to stop you.)


Remember this last February? (Photo: Jacci Lewis)

More practical: Perhaps getting the jump on booking that trip to Hawaii before your friends read this and gobble up all the cheap plane tickets?

Eh....

"Potential escapees should take note that during the heart of winter, even typically tropical Hawaii will feel the chill, with cooler temperatures coupled with showers and heavy thunderstorms," Stillman says.

Then again, "chill" in Hawaii is, what, 77 degrees? Good grief they might have to put on capris instead of shorts...

How do they come up with their forecast? Stillman says the forecasts have roots back to a secret formula created in the late 18th Century by their founder Robert B. Thomas but has been enhanced with modern technology and scientific calculations.

What about the other Farmer's Almanac?

Yes, don't forget, there's another Farmer's Almanac in town which is slightly less old. They've been around since 1818, but the "Old" Farmer's Almanac has been around since 1792, which is like being 107 but living in the same neighborhood as someone who is 110.

But like their older cousin, the "Not so old" Farmer's Almanac also puts out a long range winter forecast, also created hundreds of years ago and given some modern adaptions, yet is still kept a closely guarded secret along the lines of what's in Area 51 and Kentucky Fried Chicken.

Despite similarly cosmic influences on their forecasts, the dueling Almanacs may or may not jive with each other. Sure enough, while the Farmer's Almanac is claiming much of the nation will be on a "Polar Coaster", the West Coast will have some refuge from extreme winter, expecting it to be "chilly" in the Northwest but with normal precipitation.

2019-2020 Winter Forecast from Farmer's Almanac (farmersalmanac.com)

Then again, most around here would categorize "normal precipitation" as "wet" and get a chilly day mixed with said day of normal precipitation and it could be "or worse". So maybe they're not that far off. Perhaps the simplest way to soak up these almanac forecasts is to prepare for a parade of storms coming on a polar coaster...

(Or worse?!?)

By the way, last year the Farmer's Almanac predicted "Typical Winter Temps, Wet". It was a fairly dry winter that was mild for much of it except for February's snow blast. The Old Farmer's Almanac had simply: "Warm, wet".

Kinda-sorta?

What do the NOAA computers and their forecasters say?

Officially, that the Old Farmer's Almanac is "full of (weather) balloon juice", as my grandmother used to say.

Their 90-day forecasts at this point are leaning fairly confidently for a mild winter in the West -- at least as overall average temperature trends go, though they aren't betting either way on the wet or dry part and that doesn't mean it can't snow once or twice around here. Just I'll bet if you ask a forecaster there, "parade of storms and/or/on the polar coaster" might not be their description.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA

The good news for those who are usually at the front of the line for a polar coaster is that El Niño is dead and we're likely heading to a neutral winter, which sometimes could admittedly be described as at least a roller coaster as the fall and winters tend to go through fits and spurts of stormy weather and calmer weather patterns.

Punxsutawney Phil?

Too busy getting in his final snacks before taking a rather long nap to comment.

Spiders?

Eww... You ask.

My gut feeling?

I don't think we'll see a repeat of last February, which extended winter blast episodes like that typically only come once every several years or so, though a snow event or two spread out over winter can't be ruled out. I'd also think the mountain snowpack will lean a little closer to normal than this past winter where El Niño likely had a hand in knocking it down to 80-ish percent of normal.

I do think we're more due for a strong wind event, which a neutral winter would increase odds for... and we're also overdue for a heavy rain event. It's been 10 years since we've had a Top 20 rain event.

So maybe if I were drawing my own map, I'd put, "Wet, Windy and Wild" or maybe a "Gaggle of Gusts"...

("OR WORSE!...?")

 

[ainitfunny]

Here in the PNW, I'll be happy with anything except serious, prolonged freezing rain this winter.

 

[Dobbin]

Owner returns after his summer vacation usually the 1st week of August.

Not long afterwards. The trees up the street (beyond the old woman with the Hillary sign finally taken down who gives me apples) are now just starting to turn.

It's coming. 49 degrees yesterday morning by Owner's "Pepsi Hits the Spot" thermometer. Intellicast (Now stupid WeatherUnderground) says the week will warm with showers on Thursday evening - but clearing for a nice fall weekend.

A welcome change for this cold blooded being - don't like hot & humid.

Dobbin