ECON Experts? Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

JF&P

Deceased
Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014



Monday, 10 Mar 2014


By: Newsmax Wires

It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”

Faber doesn’t hesitate to put the blame squarely on President Obama’s big government policies and the Federal Reserve’s risky low-rate policies, which, he says, “penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents — why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?”

Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.

So with an inevitable crash looming, what are Main Street investors to do?

One option is to sell all your stocks and stuff your money under the mattress, and another option is to risk everything and ride out the storm.

But according to Sean Hyman, founder of Absolute Profits, there is a third option.

“There are specific sectors of the market that are all but guaranteed to perform well during the next few months,” Hyman explains. “Getting out of stocks now could be costly.”

How can Hyman be so sure?

He has access to a secret Wall Street calendar that has beat the overall market by 250% since 1968. This calendar simply lists 19 investments (based on sectors of the market) and 38 dates to buy and sell them, and by doing so, one could turn $1,000 into as much as $300,000 in a 10-year time frame.

Editor's Note: Sean Hyman Reveals His Secret Wall Street Calendar in This Controversial Video, Click Here

“But this calendar is just one part of my investment system,” Hyman adds. “I also have a Crash Alert System that is designed to warn investors before a major correction as well.”

(The Crash Alert System was actually programmed by one of the individuals who coded nuclear missile flight patterns during the Cold War so that it could be as close to 100% accurate as possible).

Hyman explains that if the market starts to plunge, the Crash Alert System will signal a sell alert warning investors to go to cash.

“You would have been able to completely avoid the 2000 and 2008 collapses if you were using this system based on our back-testing,” Hyman explains. “Imagine how much more money you would have if you had avoided those horrific sell-offs.”

One might think Sean is being too confident, but he has proven himself correct in front of millions of people time and time again.

In a 2012 interview on Bloomberg Television, Hyman correctly predicted that Best Buy would drop down to $11 a share and then it would rally back up to $40 a share over the next few months. The stock did exactly what Hyman predicted.

Then, during a Fox Business interview with Gerri Willis in early 2013, he forecast that the market would rally to new highs of 15,000 despite the massive sell-off that was haunting investors. The stock market almost immediately rebounded and hit Hyman’s targets.

“A lot of people think I am lucky,” Sean said. “But it has nothing to do with luck. It has everything to do with certain tools I use. Tools like the secret Wall Street calendar and my Crash Alert System.”

With more financial uncertainty that ever, thousands of people are flocking to Hyman for his guidance. He has over 114,000 subscribers to his monthly newsletter, and his investment videos have been seen millions of times.

http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Stock-market-recession-alert/2014/02/03/id/550641/?promo_code=16610-1&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

Looks like Doc Fungcool and others have been right all along.
 

2x2

Inactive
It takes money & a commitment to put that money at risk. I don't see that in equities, PM's or other market sectors . It seems that everybody is waiting for some shoes to drop. Making a few bucks counter playing NUGT & DUST as PM's yoyo in a narrow range. Just no commitment in the markets. At least I can't see it.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”





FUNG ADVISORY: MARKET WATCH...........March 12,2014

Yesterday, copper was almost lock limit down. China has purchased lots of copper and taken loans out on their stock pile. China is also slowly defaulting on some of its bonds. Many pundits feel that China will be the second shoe to drop in this on going drama.


Gold is up this morning....it just cracked the $1350.00 level...for the second time(or is it the third??) in as many months

A huge Chinese default will bring down most of the western world's economies. This more than likely happen this year.....at any given time.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Up on Safe-Haven Demand, Bullish Technicals

Tuesday March 11, 2014 2:19 PM

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-03-11/Gold-Up-on-Safe-Haven-Demand-Bullish-Technicals.html

(Kitco News) - Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately higher Tuesday, on some more safe-haven demand that surfaced amid the simmering geopolitical situation in Ukraine. Chart-based buying was also seen as the near-term technical posture for gold remains bullish.

Gold prices are hovering not far below their recent four-month highs. April gold was last up $6.20 at $1,347.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $7.80 at $1,348.00. May Comex silver last traded down $0.07 at $20.84 an ounce.

The Ukraine matter is still a worry among traders and investors and has moved closer to the front burner of the market place. Russian president Putin has spurned a U.S. proposal to defuse the crisis, reports said. Last weekend Putin said he would back the Crimean region seceding from Ukraine. U.S. and German officials have rebuked Putin, and reports said the European Union is set to discuss this week sanctions against Russia. A vote on the Crimean secession is scheduled for March 16, and that could be the next flashpoint in the region. The Russian occupation of Crimea is a bullish factor for the safe-haven gold market.

U.S. economic data released Tuesday was on the light side and failed to move the markets. Traders are looking ahead to next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The London P.M. gold fix is $1,346.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,344.00.

Technically, April gold futures closed near mid-range Tuesday. A 2.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $1,355.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,318.70. First resistance is seen at $1,355.00 and then at $1,360.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,337.80 and then at $1,330.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5

May silver futures prices closed nearer the session low Tuesday and closed at a fresh four-week low close. The bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $21.74 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at $21.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $21.325. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $20.61 and then at $20.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 760 points at 295.55 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and slumped to a fresh contract and nearly four-year low. Weak economic data coming from China over the weekend has helped to sink the copper market. Prices are in an accelerating 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 307.75 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 290.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 297.50 cents and then at 300.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s contract low of 294.20 cents and then at 292.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

UPDATE; Gold at $1356.00
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
Economic calendar.

Time Cur. Imp. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Wednesday, March 12
01:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
01:00 JPY Household Confidence 38.3 40.3 40.5
02:30 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
04:00 EUR Spanish CPI (MoM) 0.0% -0.1% -1.3%
04:00 EUR Spanish CPI (YoY) 0.0% -0.1% 0.2%
06:00 EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5% -0.7%
06:00 EUR Industrial Production (YoY) 1.9% 0.5%
06:10 EUR Italian 12-Month BOT Auction 0.676%
06:35 EUR German 2-Year Schatz Auction 0.110%
07:00 USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.47%
07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) 9.4%
08:00 BRL Brazilian CPI (YoY) 5.64% 5.59%
08:00 INR Indian CPI (YoY) 8.35% 8.79%
08:00 INR Indian Industrial Production (YoY) -0.6% -0.6%
08:00 INR Indian Manufacturing Output (MoM) -1.60%
10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.150M 1.429M
10:30 USD EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.867M 1.414M
10:30 USD Gasoline Inventories -2.033M -1.604M
11:30 BRL Brazilian Foreign Exchange Flows -1.86B
13:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction 2.795%
14:00 USD Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks
16:00 NZD Interest Rate Decision 2.75% 2.50%
16:00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
16:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
17:45 NZD FPI (MoM) 1.2%
19:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (MoM) 7.0% -15.7%
19:50 JPY Core Machinery Orders (YoY) 18.8% 6.7%
19:50 JPY Foreign Bonds Buying -759.0B
20:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.3%
20:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance 52% 53%
20:30 AUD Employment Change 18.0K -3.7K
20:30 AUD Full Employment Change -7.1K
20:30 AUD Participation Rate 64.5% 64.5%
20:30 AUD Unemployment Rate 6.0% 6.0%
21:00 KRW South Korean Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
Legend
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
Inportant dates for the country and the economy.

March 12--President of Ukraine visits Washington D.C.

March 16-Russia's vote on annexing the Crimea.


World War could be in the cards. It may start out slowly....but as opponents gather steam, and get angrier and angrier,
things will heat up.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
Worried about war and economic collapse? Calm down. There's something else that is happening.

(143649) 2003 QQ47
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(143649) 2003 QQ47 Discovery[1]
Discovered by LINEAR (704)
Discovery date August 24, 2003
Designations
Alternative names none
Minor planet category Apollo asteroid
Orbital characteristics
Epoch October 22, 2004 (JD 2453300.5)
Aphelion 192.756 Gm (1.288 AU)
Perihelion 132.005 Gm (0.882 AU)
Semi-major axis 162.380 Gm (1.085 AU)
Eccentricity 0.187
Orbital period 413.057 d (1.13 a)
Average orbital speed 28.34 km/s
Mean anomaly 290.754°
Inclination 62.102°
Longitude of ascending node 1.014°
Argument of perihelion 105.042°
Physical characteristics
Dimensions 1.24 km[2]
Mass 2.0×1012 kg
Mean density 2.0? g/cm³
Equatorial surface gravity 0.0003 m/s²
Escape velocity 0.0007 km/s
Rotation period ? d
Albedo 0.10?
Temperature ~267 K
Spectral type ?
Absolute magnitude (H) 17.3

(143649) 2003 QQ47 (also written 2003 QQ47) is an asteroid which became briefly notable upon its discovery in late August 2003 when media outlets played up a very preliminary report that it had a 1 in 250,000 chance of impacting into Earth on March 21, 2014.[3]

2003 QQ47 was discovered on 24 August 2003.[1] 2003 QQ47 was added to the Sentry Risk Table on 30 August 2003.[3] By 31 August 2003 (with an observation arc of 7 days) the odds of an impact on 21 March 2014 were already reduced to 1 in 1.7 million.[2] 2003 QQ47 was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 14 September 2003 so there is no risk of an impact by it in the next 100 years.[4]

It is known that 2003 QQ47 will safely pass 0.1283 AU (19,190,000 km; 11,930,000 mi) from Earth on March 26, 2014.[5][6] With an observation arc of 10 years and an orbital uncertainty of 0, its orbit and future close approaches are well determined.[5]


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This story should be hitting the national news in the next few days.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
The destruction of the value of copper(china's copper stores are huge), is a sign of an impending deflationary event in my view.

Copper Limit Down In Shanghai; Falls To Lowest Since July 2009

As I've stated previously, China has taken huge loans out on it's inventories of various resources. When and if the Chinese economy collapses (it may happen in stages), the value of many commodities will plummet. However, commodities that are needed for actual living such as stored food stuffs will always retain their value, since there is an ongoing need for these products to sustain life.

During a deflationary depression, 'a lack of demand for various goods' occurs 100% of the time. The game plan, for the savvy prepper
is to accumulate only those goods that are needed for everyday living(there are exceptions to this rule). An example of this theory is thus: lay in large supplies of clean corn (in bags). Clean corn can be used as fuel in pellet stoves....it can be used to feed wild animals which in turn may be harvested if the food supply becomes scarce. Clean corn must be kept dry, for if moisture gets to it, it will rot, and stink like there's no tomorrow.

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It seems that certain pm's are marching up the ladder on a daily basis. TPTB know that if the U.S. dollar finally bites the 'big one', a basket of currencies which will include pm's will be used as a formula for a new currency. These entities (tptb) are playing chess.
They may be 5 moves ahead of the game(or behind the curve...I've yet to figure that one out). Remember that little fact, and play the game accordingly.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
This article has moved me to run a RED FUNG ALERT

Be not complacent my friends....for the landscape that you've so dearly coveted can change in the twinkling of an eye.




Europe’s hot new export is deflation

By Matthew Lynn

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europes-hot-new-export-is-deflation-2014-03-12

MW-BW392_deflat_20140311144638_MG.jpg


All it will take is one little pin prick, and viola......game over.


LONDON (MarketWatch) — For all its economic troubles, the euro zone remains a great exporting powerhouse, making a vast range of products that sell well around the world. Germany has its top-of-the-range cars, France its wines and aircraft, and Italy its food and fashion. But now Europe is exporting something that is going to be very damaging to the global economy — deflation.

Prices have already started to tumble across a range of European countries.


A series of dramatic episodes over the past few days, most recently the disappearance of a jetliner packed with Chinese passengers, reveals a China grappling to get control of its security challenges.

Greece and Cyprus are already witnessing relentlessly falling prices. Portugal, Spain and Italy are only a whisker away from joining them. France and Germany will be there soon. Despite that, the European Central Bank has decided to do nothing. By the time it does get around to acting, it will probably be too late.

But the one thing we have learned from the last two decades is that monetary policy spills from one continent to another. Japanese easy money fueled asset booms a decade ago. Chinese competitiveness has driven down prices around the world. Quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve pumped up asset prices in the emerging markets and elsewhere.

Now European deflation is about to be exported globally. It is already set to create a spiralling debt crisis in Europe — and may trigger one elsewhere.

Just because the ECB has decided to ignore it does not mean that deflation is not starting to take hold of Europe. Just take a look at the figures.

The annual inflation rate in Cyprus is now minus 1.6%. In Greece, it is minus 1.4%. Annual price rises are running at 0.8% for the whole of the euro area, a statistical whisker away from outright deflation. The monthly figures were even more alarming. In January, prices fell in every euro zone country apart from Latvia, Estonia, and Slovakia. In Italy, prices dropped by 2.1% in a single month.

True, there is nothing wrong with that in itself.

Stuff getting cheaper — most consumers will think that is just fine. In a healthy economy, it often is. In the euro zone, however, it is not. There are two reasons.

One is that all the peripheral countries within the euro EURUSD +0.0137% have crippling levels of debt. Deflation makes that much, much worse — the debt stays the same, but the income to service it keeps falling. The second is that all of them also have to claw back competitiveness with Germany by cutting wages. That is painful enough in normal circumstances. With deflation, you have to cut wages even more to ever have a chance of getting back into the game. Falling prices take a bad situation — and make it a lot worse.

All that is pretty familiar.

Just about everyone apart from the ECB President Mario Draghi has noticed that Europe is falling into the trap of falling prices. The real problem with the euro zone’s deflationary spiral will be the impact it has on the rest of the world.

In a globalized economy, whatever is happening in one economy ripples out into other countries. And when an economic bloc is as big as the euro zone — which, despite its mighty effort to shrink its output as fast as it possibly can, remains the largest single economic area in the world — then the spill-over effects are going to be very large.

So far, the impact is most obvious in the U.K. Britain is a high inflation country, and has been for a long time. The Bank of England has an official target of 2% for price rises, but is usually way over. This year, however, it is on target, and now falling below it. Prices fell by 0.6% in the U.K. in January. The annual inflation rate is now running at only 1.9%.

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With the physical collapse of goods during a deflationary 'event', we can also expect the value of currencies to drop....likewise.
The dollar, along with other world currencies will take a hit........a big hit.

Nobody can really time the exact month of the collapse. It may run slowly, as TPTB move their assets quickly in order to avoid a total liquidation of their goods....OR it may happen over night. One morning we wake up....and the landscape has changed to something foreign.....unfamiliar.......scary.


NOTE: Those that sit on their collective beehinds, will find that they will have a difficult time surviving the tsunami that is
coming. If you are unable to physically prepare......then mentally prepare...and with those mental preparations....spiritually prepare.
The protection of 'moral and spiritual rearmament is key. Without doing either of those things, the preservation of merely the physical body is pointless.
JMHO by the way.
 
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doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
Five reasons why stocks will fall


By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-why-stocks-will-fall-2014-03-11?link=MW_story_popular

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — Last week I told you that the skyscraper indicator has flashed a sell signal. Since many readers were skeptical of this conclusion, I now present five more reasons to lighten your exposure to stocks.
Kellner's Forecasts
See economic calendar
date report forecast previous
March 13 Retail sales 0.2% -0.4%
March 13 Retail sales ex-autos 0.0% 0.0%
March 14 Producer price index 0.3% 0.2%
Mach 14 Core PPI 0.2% 0.2%
March 14 UMich consumer sentiment 81.0 81.6

First a reminder: The sign on Wall Street that reads one way applies only to motor vehicles — not to the stock market. For equities, it is definitely a two-way street, and the market seems poised to make a U-turn.

This change in direction is contrary to what passes for the conventional wisdom in the Street of Dreams. Most of the time, most investors think that stocks can only go in one direction: up.

If you don’t believe me, ask your broker or your favorite analyst. These folks make a living based on your buying stocks. And let’s face it, you wouldn’t be buying stocks if you didn’t think that their prices would rise.

All that said, here are five reasons why stocks are more likely to fall than to rise over the near term.

The first reason is that most stocks have gone up an awful lot over the past five years. From its low point exactly five years ago this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.41% is now a whopping 2-1/2 times higher.


Last year alone, the Dow rose by more than 30%! This is more than the economy has risen in total since the end of the last recession. It also beats the rise in corporate profits by a wide margin.

In this environment it should be no surprise that many investors and traders have decided to take some money off the table. It’s called profit-taking, and this is reason No. 2.

Reason No. 3 is nerves. The market has been extremely volatile of late, going up a lot one day, and down about as much on the second.

It’s a trader’s market, not one for the faint of heart, a.k.a. the average investor. An increase in volatility usually precedes a drop in stocks, as market participants rush to get out of the way by selling en masse.

The fourth reason is the economy.

In case you didn’t notice, the economy has slowed significantly since the end of last year. And while a good chunk of this slowdown no doubt can be traced to the severe weather experienced by most of the country (see my column), the jury is still out regarding just how temporary this will turn out to be.


Whatever the case, it does not seem that the markets are prepared for just how bad the first quarter’s growth was or how much this slowdown impacted sales and earnings.


With an aging financial advisory population, it's likely more young financial advisers will acquire advisory firms. But they do face hurdles, a competitive environment and difficulty raising capital among them.

No doubt there will be lots of disappointed investors come next month when these numbers start to trickle out. And when they are disappointed, many people will sell first and ask questions later.

The last reason is that perennial fear: geopolitics. In this instance, it is what looks to be a renewal of the Cold War between the United States and Russia.

Lots of economies in Europe and elsewhere are dependent on us and Russia for both imports and exports. A new Cold War could put the kibosh on such trade.

If you think Wall Street is going to ignore this kerfuffle and blithely send stocks higher, I’ve got a bridge I’d like to sell you.

Other must-read MarketWatch stories include:

What to do with your bubble stocks

Bogle critiques Klarman’s call, backs ‘buy and hold’

The chart that explains why the White House expects the economy to accelerate

Irwin Kellner is MarketWatch's chief economist. Follow him on Twitter @MktwKellner.
Get news alerts on Dow Jones Industrial Average — or create your own.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
About PM's


PMs prices are irrelevant for the short term, just like short term moves in the market are irrelevant.

Buy PMs knowing someday the derivatives market will implode or hyperinflation will hit us. Other than that, PMs arent that useful.................this is one person's opinion, by the way.



Size of market

Derivatives

To give an idea of the size of the derivative market, The Economist magazine has reported that as of June 2011, the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market amounted to approximately $700 trillion, and the size of the market traded on exchanges totaled an additional $83 trillion.[7] However, these are "notional" values, and some economists say that this value greatly exaggerates the market value and the true credit risk faced by the parties involved. For example, in 2010, while the aggregate of OTC derivatives exceeded $600 trillion, the value of the market was estimated much lower, at $21 trillion. The credit risk equivalent of the derivative contracts was estimated at $3.3 trillion.[8]

Still, even these scaled down figures represent huge amounts of money. For perspective, the budget for total expenditure of the United States Government during 2012 was $3.5 trillion,[9] and the total current value of the US stock market is an estimated $23 trillion.[10] The world annual Gross Domestic Product is about $65 trillion.[11]

And for one type of derivative at least, Credit Default Swaps (CDS), for which the inherent risk is considered high, the higher, nominal value, remains relevant. It was this type of derivative that investment magnate Warren Buffet referred to in his famous 2002 speech in which he warned against "weapons of financial mass destruction." CDS notional value in early 2012 amounted to $25.5 trillion, down from $55 trillion in 2008.[12]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)

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I hope you read that..............700 trillion. The number is so large that it's incomprehensible. Only a few people in the world understand the full extent of the derivative exposures to the markets. Furthermore, only a few folks actually know the true amount of derivative exposure to the underlying assets that they hedge.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
About PM's


PMs prices are irrelevant for the short term, just like short term moves in the market are irrelevant.

Buy PMs knowing someday the derivatives market will implode or hyperinflation will hit us. Other than that, PMs arent that useful.................this is one person's opinion, by the way.



Size of market

Derivatives

To give an idea of the size of the derivative market, The Economist magazine has reported that as of June 2011, the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market amounted to approximately $700 trillion, and the size of the market traded on exchanges totaled an additional $83 trillion.[7] However, these are "notional" values, and some economists say that this value greatly exaggerates the market value and the true credit risk faced by the parties involved. For example, in 2010, while the aggregate of OTC derivatives exceeded $600 trillion, the value of the market was estimated much lower, at $21 trillion. The credit risk equivalent of the derivative contracts was estimated at $3.3 trillion.[8]

Still, even these scaled down figures represent huge amounts of money. For perspective, the budget for total expenditure of the United States Government during 2012 was $3.5 trillion,[9] and the total current value of the US stock market is an estimated $23 trillion.[10] The world annual Gross Domestic Product is about $65 trillion.[11]

And for one type of derivative at least, Credit Default Swaps (CDS), for which the inherent risk is considered high, the higher, nominal value, remains relevant. It was this type of derivative that investment magnate Warren Buffet referred to in his famous 2002 speech in which he warned against "weapons of financial mass destruction." CDS notional value in early 2012 amounted to $25.5 trillion, down from $55 trillion in 2008.[12]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)

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I hope you read that..............700 trillion. The number is so large that it's incomprehensible. Only a few people in the world understand the full extent of the derivative exposures to the markets. Furthermore, only a few folks actually know the true amount of derivative exposure to the underlying assets that they hedge.

Gold making a move...up $12.00





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from the WSJ


Russia News
West Readies Sanctions on Russia, Warily
Move Threatens to Undo Years of Work to Get Moscow to Cooperate in Fighting Financial Crimes
By
Jay Solomon ,
William Mauldin and
Carol E. Lee


WASHINGTON—The U.S. and Europe are readying sanctions that stand to drive a wedge into more than a decade of efforts to integrate Russia into the West's financial system, said current and former U.S. officials involved in the deliberations.

Both Washington and the European Union stepped up efforts Tuesday to penalize Russian President Vladimir Putin for moving toward the annexation of the Ukrainian region of Crimea. snip snip

NOTE: These sanctions will cause the western world to tip into a very precarious financial debacle, IMHO.

NOTE2: In my opinion we will lose the next cold war with Russia.....

NOTE3: Oil is dropping in price as we speak........if oil goes down too far, it will be just as bad as if it hits $200.00 per barrel. We're
between a rock and a hard place...so to speak.

NOTE4: Gold is up $20.00 per oz at 8:50 est......march 12, 2014....
 
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doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
headlines from zerohedge.

G-7 CALLS ON RUSSIA TO 'DE-ESCALATE THE CONFLICT IN CRIMEA'
*RUSSIA ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA WOULD VIOLATE UN CHARTER: G-7
*G-7 CALLS ON RUSSIA TO HALT SUPPORT FOR CRIMEA REFERENDUM
*G-7 SAYS WILL NOT RECOGNIZE RESULT OF CRIMEA REFERENDUM



FUNG PREDICTION: This prediction is not chiseled in stone...it's merely one man's prediction...nothing more or nothing less.

Either this Friday...or Monday...we will see a huge downdraft in the world's financial systems.

March 14th or March 17th....with March 16th (Russian referendum being the trigger....


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NOTE: If coups are to be regarded as legal (that's what happened in the Ukraine), then we are looking at a whole new ballgame.
Politicians and those who control the world's economies are now looking into the abyss.

NOTE2: RULES....THERE AIN'T NO STINKIN RULES.....
 

aksenobwas

Contributing Member
I agree the roll over is coming, but I think there is one more brief false surge up as the smart money leaves. I adjusted my delta position to a little more positive this am and will reverse when S&P hits 1900 - 1905 area.
When everyone is talking CRASH it isnt ready to happen yet....when the market "surprises" the pundits and starts to surge higher and everyone says "get on the train now or you'll miss it!" ... that's when I exit.
 

aksenobwas

Contributing Member
I agree the roll over is coming, but I think there is one more brief false surge up as the smart money leaves. I adjusted my delta position to a little more positive this am and will reverse when S&P hits 1900 - 1905 area.
When everyone is talking CRASH it isnt ready to happen yet....when the market "surprises" the pundits and starts to surge higher and everyone says "get on the train now or you'll miss it!" ... that's when I exit.
 

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
There have been numerous times in the past 15 years that yours truly has tried to second guess the markets.
Unfortunately, when I make that foolish mistake, I always come away bruised, battered, and in financial pain.
The combination of computer driven stocks(HFT), and the mercurial psychology of the money masters, and whoever else
controls this screwed up world, makes predicting the markets difficult. In my case, I do make predictions. The outcome
of these predictions are mere possibilities....not probabilities.

NOTE: When the market does drop, don't attempt to catch a falling knife.
 

Elza

Veteran Member
Nothing will happen until November. TPTB will keep it propped up at least until then. After the election? :shr:
 

aksenobwas

Contributing Member
I agree doc. Only advantage that we small traders have is quick maneuverability. The big boys still have to take time/care to unwind large positions, computers aside. Trying to pick tops / bottoms is always a losers game.... best to ride the waves up or down.
 

2x2

Inactive
Trying to predict the markets can be a humbling road to travel, and expensive. Most are fixated on one branch of a big tree. As a result they fall out of the tree, bruised and broke. Refusing to change the mindset as information changes results in falling out of tree over and over again. You need to ride the flow and take what the market gives you. Your opinion, or mine, or any other "Guru" means spit to the savvy trader.
Find the "vehicle" that works for the moment and ride it hard. When it quits, find another.
I've mentioned NUGT several times as a gold counter move to stocks; What else can I say, another $1500 profit so far today. Look at this 5 day chart. Why lock yourself into an untenable position or thought process? Watch DUST when gold retreats.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NUGT&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
 

aksenobwas

Contributing Member
Agree, my predicting powers suck. Market didn't crash when Puty went into Crimera or Malaysia jet crashed, etc. Minimal selling that seemed more like big boys slowly getting out of positions, then market moves slowly higher, etc. If WWIII doesnt break out we may, repeat may, have one more blow off top. I use GLD and GLL options to play the gold side, UCO and SCO for the oil side. I like SLW and have been selling calls each month against my position which has done very well, using a little to buy a put butterfly hedge.
 

aksenobwas

Contributing Member
Funny, I didn't catch the headline earlier that Obozo is releasing 5 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve....no wonder price of oil dropped! And what the hell is this all about.... that does exactly nothing except affect the spot market. Sold out my put spread on UCO for a nice profit on the drop but may have to drop my long ETF position tomorrow. Will see.
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
And STILL people breathlessly follow "the stock market" like it's some kind of free-market talisman.


WAKE THE HELL UP FER GAWD'S SAKE!!!!!


P.T. Barnum sure was right....
 

aksenobwas

Contributing Member
Joekan,
Silver and Gold are fairly manipulated markets and do not always follow the commodity index. Silver is speculative metal which I trade using the Silver Wheaton mining company stock SLW (pays a dividend). Gold is a funny animal, back to Nov highs now, probably will pull back a tad before making another leg up. If inflation indicators tick up, or serious war drums, price will climb dramatically. Fed Reserve is paying banks 0.25% interest on their excess capital reserves kept with the Fed, resulting in megabucks staying out of circulation by the banks hoarding cash on the books with the Fed safely collecting interest. Therefore, all of this QE money printing bullshit has NOT added funds to circulation and that is how the Fed has kept inflation numbers (cooked numbers anyway) artificially LOW. Hence demand for gold hedging is low and the price has been falling for sometime now. However, you can't cheat mother nature forever (mathematical reality) and the cards will begin to fall. Bond prices will drop ..... TLT ETF will fall ..... yields will rise and inflation indicators will begin to snarl upward. All resulting in GLD taking off. When? dunno....just watching. GLD back above 50 and 200 dma and 50 closing in on it....only important because everyone else watches it...LOL.
 

Timber

Senior Member
As reading WSJ in the hard paper there's an increase print on Inverse Bonds ETFs
With all the doom on the horizon thinking SM takes a dive maybe the next cash cow.
 

aksenobwas

Contributing Member
I think it may be a little premature to bet the bank on it. That being said I do have an end of March option Condor on TLT.... I make a lot if TLT is EITHER greater than 109.5 or less than 106 LOL So I guess Im playing the Pass and Don't Pass on this crap shoot.
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014



Monday, 10 Mar 2014


By: Newsmax Wires

It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.
...


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aksenobwas

Contributing Member
That's how you make a mint in this market: Selling books declaring "THE END IS NEAR" cashing in on the fear instinct reflex. That's what these pundits do I think.
 

2x2

Inactive
Information overload, nothing stands out, or makes sense. Oil stocks took a hit so maybe they'll pop tomorrow. anyhow I'm going to bed. Good luck tomorrow.
 
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