ECON Euro hits new 20-year low, fighting to stay above US dollar

Melodi

Disaster Cat
I know everyone is worried about the dollar, but right now the dollar really isn't doing too badly - or rather all the currencies are not doing that well but the dollar is doing better than some. They had fudged with language here, but I was living here when the Euro was introduced and it was one-to-one with the dollar for a short time and as far as I know it was never BELOW the dollar as it was yesterday (it may have been for a few minutes or something but I don't remember that). Since that time, the Euro has ALWAYS been higher than the dollar sometimes a lot higher and this is something I kept track of because most of our money came in dollars as my pension does now. What is even weirder (and a bit scary) is the British Pound which is often worth twice what the dollar is (the dollar being worth about 50 pence) is now ALMOST on par with the dollar - only worth about 18 cents more. A great time to visit the UK if you are a US tourist, I can't remember it ever being that low since we moved to this side of the water in 1994.

Euro hits new 20-year low, fighting to stay above US dollar
Weak economic data have raised further fears of recession.
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Image: Alamy Stock Photo
THE EURO DIVED to a new two-decade low against the dollar and European stock markets fell today as weak economic data raised fears of recession amid an energy crunch.

The euro tumbled to be worth $0.9901, but in afternoon trading, it clawed back losses to return above parity with the dollar.

The dollar had strengthened this week against other currencies ahead of a speech later this week by US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, as markets speculate that the US central bank will further tighten its monetary policy.

Higher interest rates boost the dollar as they make dollar-denominated debt more attractive to investors.

Meanwhile, the euro is weighed down by a gloomy outlook for the eurozone economy as Russia’s war in Ukraine has sent energy prices soaring.

The currency had already plunged below parity yesterday on recession fears to plumb the lowest levels since 2002, when it came into physical circulation.

In the latest blow, S&P Global’s closely-watched monthly composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed that eurozone economic activity fell for the second month in a row in August.

“Eurozone PMIs… confirm concerns of an impending recession in Europe on the back of high inflation and energy crunch, as they signal declining activity for two months in a row,” warned Citi analyst Luis Costa.

“The energy crunch remains an overarching threat to economic stability in Europe,” he added.

European equities slid amid stubborn worries that the US Federal Reserve will carry on ramping up interest rates to fight inflation.

European natural gas prices fell today although they remain elevated on fears of a halt to Russia’s gas deliveries.

The Dutch TTF Gas Futures contract stood at €268.45 per megawatt hour, down from yesterday.

Gas had spiked to record peaks in March after key producer Russia launched its invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

That has sparked surging domestic energy bills, fuelling decades-high inflation that has prompted tighter monetary policy around the world.

Meanwhile, US natural gas prices hit a fresh 14-year high on Tuesday.

“As it has become painfully obvious, natural gas is a much more effective weapon in the hands of Russian politicians than the Kalashnikov in the hands of their soldiers,” noted PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

This has hit the single currency hard because the bloc relies heavily on imported Russian gas, said Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes.

Fears increased after Russia’s Gazprom said Friday the Nord Stream pipeline would be closed for maintenance at the end of the month, cutting Europe’s crucial gas deliveries.

“The euro’s problem is… the threat from continued squeezing of gas supplies and the cost of replacing Russian gas,” Juckes said.

© AFP 2022

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Melodi

Disaster Cat

FOREX-Euro falls to two-decade lows as energy crisis bites
CONTRIBUTOR
Dhara Ranasinghe Reuters
PUBLISHED
AUG 23, 2022 07:47AM EDT

CREDIT: REUTERS/DADO RUVIC
The euro fell to a fresh two-decade low on Tuesday, dealt a fresh blow by renewed concern that an energy shock will keep inflation elevated and makes a recession in Europe all but certain.

By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a fresh two-decade low on Tuesday, dealt a fresh blow by renewed concern that an energy shock will keep inflation elevated and makes a recession in Europe all but certain.

China's yuan meanwhile weakened to a two-year low and sterling briefly touched its weakest since March 2020.

Business activity data from Europe was not as bad as feared, pushing the euro off the 20-year low hit early in the session, at $0.99005 EUR=EBS.

Still, euro zone business activity contracted for a second straight month in August and a bleak outlook kept the euro down.

At 1116 GMT, the currency was down 0.15% at $0.9926EUR= and holding below the key $1-level.

"The renewed concerns about Europe following the spike in gas prices is the main reason why the euro is down," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.


British and Dutch wholesale gas prices rose sharply on Monday as the prospect of maintenance on the main Russian pipeline to Europe put markets on edge.

Russia will halt natural gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days at the end of the month, the latest reminder of the precarious state of the continent's energy supply.

Heat waves on the continent have already put a strain on energy supply and worries are growing that any disruption during the winter months could be devastating for business activity.

That's all hurt the euro, which is down more than 12% so far this year, and has shed almost 3% in August.

"What we're trying to figure out is how much of the move in the euro is driven by thin summer liquidity and how much is driven by flows," said Kenneth Broux, a currency strategist at Societe Generale in London.

"But of course the increase in gas prices yesterday is bad news all around."

Sterling recovered some ground after the PMI data but was not too far off a 2-1/2 year low hit earlier at $1.1718 GBP=D3.

The Japanese yen JPY=EBSwas little changed around 137.42 per dollar after touching a one-month low of 137.705 earlier.

The risk-sensitive Aussie AUD=D3 fell to a one-month low before recovering to around $0.6888.

China's yuan CNY=CFXS fell to an almost two-year low of 6.8666 per dollar as Beijing's steps to easy policies to revive faltering growth and the Federal Reserve's relentless tightening streak kept pressure on the Chinese currency.

Against a basket of currencies, in which the euro is the most heavily weighted, the U.S. dollar index =USDwas firmer at 109.06, having touched its highest since mid-July.

Another reason investors have sought shelter in dollars is the growing risk of a hawkish message from the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, flagged by several officials last week.

"I think he (Fed chief Jerome Powell) will be hawkish on Friday, it's too soon to declare an inflation victory," said Broux at Societe Generale.

World FX rateshttps://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

Euro slumps to 20-year lows against the robust dollarhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3wnoLw7

Euro trashedhttps://tmsnrt.rs/3dDpcMb

(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

((Dhara.Ranasinghe@thomsonreuters.com; +442075422684;))
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Thanks for the reminder, Melodi. There are a few things I was thinking of ordering from across the pond, and now is the time.

The Euro....pffft. Those folks really have talked and "Greened" themselves into a corner and into a mess.
I am a bit more surprised that the British Pound has taken such a hit...although they are in the middle of that PM political mess and the public and media seem really bent out of shape over inflation. It isn't helping their ability to purchase goods and energy on the world market. Just that I always figured the Brits as pragmatists with more grit than most when things gets real. Would think money would follow an ability to reasonably cope with difficulty. :shr:
 
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Kathy in FL

Administrator
_______________
As they keep telling people, now is a good time to go to Europe. The problem with that is inflation. The dollar may be up against the Euro, but the price is Euro are up so high that it balances out … food, fuel, transportation, overnight accommodations, etc.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Euro has been on life support for a while now. The energy crunch is accelerating the collapse of it. Plus with BREXIT. And pushes of German, France, Spain contemplating leaving the European union the whole currency is in free fall. Plus it gets better. There is a big push of nationalist candidates. I would not say they are going to the extreme of Jedonism, but nationalism is now on the rise instead of globalism. Globalism would only work in a truly holistic society with no cultures that are incompatible with first world cultures. The experiment failed due to endemic corruption. Not systemic, but endemic but just barely...
 

Southside

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Euro has been on life support for a while now. The energy crunch is accelerating the collapse of it. Plus with BREXIT. And pushes of German, France, Spain contemplating leaving the European union the whole currency is in free fall. Plus it gets better. There is a big push of nationalist candidates. I would not say they are going to the extreme of Jedonism, but nationalism is now on the rise instead of globalism. Globalism would only work in a truly holistic society with no cultures that are incompatible with first world cultures. The experiment failed due to endemic corruption. Not systemic, but endemic but just barely...
There is no doubt that if...IF the current scenario in Nat Gas doesn't get better, the Euro will be .75/Dollar by November.
 
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