WAR Egyptian sources: Israel prepares to strike Iran from Gulf and N. Iraq

[Spirit Of Truth]

It's DEBKA, so take this report with a grain of salt. If someone can confirm the Shorouk report and reliability of the publication, that would be helpful.

Also note that I just had a terrible dream about a nuclear war.

Egyptian sources: Israel prepares to strike Iran from Gulf and N. Iraq

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 3, 2010, 10:12 PM (GMT+02:00)

http://www.debka.com/article/8580/

Arab voices were fanning Middle East war fever Wednesday night, Feb. 3. debkafile's military sources report that not only are Syrian leaders beating war drums - Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem said in Damascus: "Israelis, do not test the power of Syria since you know the war will move into your cities" - but Egyptian military sources have put out information purporting to outline Israel's preparations to strike Iran.

They report that the Israeli Navy together with the US Fifth Fleet have for some weeks been charting Persian Gulf waters and Iranian shorelines in preparation for attacks by Israeli naval and special operations forces.

IDF intelligence and special forces officers, they also say, have been marking out routes for their air and ground forces to drive into Iran and hit its nuclear installations.

According to these Egyptian sources, Saudi Arabia has demanded clarifications from Washington about reported US-assisted Israeli preparations to strike Iran and asks why they were not brought to the notice of Riyadh and the Gulf Arab governments.

The Saudis added that several Gulf intelligence and naval units had tracked Israeli movements and gathered documentary evidence.

Some of this information was leaked in Cairo Wednesday night to Shorouk, a publication which Egyptian intelligence often uses as an outlet for information held to be credible.

Shorouk was first out with the story of the Israeli Air Force attack on Iranian arms convoys in Sudan in January 2009.

 

[Housecarl]

So who are the IDFAF going to over fly with or without permission?

 

[Spirit Of Truth]

So who are the IDFAF going to over fly with or without permission?

I read a report recently of Israel completing refurbishment of a 60s-vintage U.S. tanker aircraft for in-flight refueling last month.

 

[mt4design]

So who are the IDFAF going to over fly with or without permission?
good question.

Flying low and fast through Jordan and Iraq would be my guess.

I don't think refueling will be an option. Maybe they'll just ditch in the gulf.

Mike

 

[atvJim]

I followed the link you provided and read the article. The plane you mentioned is for Australia-Israel is NOT mentioned once in the article.

From the link:
"Deliveries to the Royal Australian Air Force will begin in mid-2010. Conversion is complete for the first two aircraft and ongoing for the third at Qantas Aviation Services in Australia. The A330 MRTT has won all of the latest competitions for next-generation aerial refueling aircraft -- with selections by the air forces of Australia, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

What gives?

 

[Spirit Of Truth]

I followed the link you provided and read the article. The plane you mentioned is for Australia-Israel is NOT mentioned once in the article.

From the link:
"Deliveries to the Royal Australian Air Force will begin in mid-2010. Conversion is complete for the first two aircraft and ongoing for the third at Qantas Aviation Services in Australia. The A330 MRTT has won all of the latest competitions for next-generation aerial refueling aircraft -- with selections by the air forces of Australia, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

What gives?

My mistake. I will adjust accordingly. I know I read somewhere about Israel completing refurbishment of a vintage U.S. tanker in January that could be used for aerial refueling. It may have been a KC-45, but I couldn't find an article. The news was posted in an obscure publication.

Also note the title of the article: "Israel prepares to strike Iran from Gulf and N. Iraq"

Is it possible Israel got U.S. approval to use an air-base in Northern Iraq? How would IAF aircraft get there unnoticed?

 

[mt4design]

I am sure Israel would have some kind of refueling capability but I don't see it as being an option really. Honestly, I see any venture into Iran as being a one way ticket and they have to get in there as quickly as they are able.

Mike

ETA: I'm sure the rest of their aircraft would be on stand by to repel any counter attack.

 

[Caplock50]

I done laid it all out in another thread several days ago. Israel will go into Lebanon, dealing a terrible blow to hezbullah. Then, if Syria acts, Damascus will cease to exist. Then the main Israeli flying force will cross Iraq through the Kurdish lands. and then on into Iran. The Israelis and the Kurds have been working together for a very looong time. The Kurds don't like the Turks, Iranians, Syrians, and most of the Iraqis. It seems the only ones the Kurds do like are the Israelis. And, if memory serves, DNA tests have proven that the Kurds and Israelis are kindreds, may be one of the 'Lost tribes of Israel'. Yep, up through Lebanon, on through Syria, cross through Iraq over Kurdish lands, and into Iran and back again. That is the shortest and best air route for a raid on the Iranian nuke sites. War *is* coming to the M.E. Hunker and bunker...or just 'Hide and Watch'.

 

[TheSearcher]

So who are the IDFAF going to over fly with or without permission?

Jordan and Iraq?

 

[sssarawolf]

It would be stupid to let anything like this leak out. It would be something like saying a few years ago before we went into Iraq. We're coming soon, a month later, we're coming soon and 18 months later finally going in. DUH

 

[RobinYyes]

So who are the IDFAF going to over fly with or without permission?

Saudi Arabia has aready given permission!

 

[pastprime]

Excellent maps! Perhaps we can add more to this thread as things develop? (If that is appropriate...don't mean to derail, etc.) Thanks for updates by those "in the know."!

 

[Caplock50]

(sang to the tune of an old TV commercial)
"My route's better than your route.
My route's better than yours...
Because it's shorter!"

 

[China Connection]

Well no matter what happens if it starts then so will world war three!

Both Russia and China have too much at stake to sit back and let the Middle East as a whole get placed under Western control. Iran is where both are most heavily financially involved.

Any hit on Iran will probably see Dear Leader in North Korea make his move.

..............................................................................

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1897105,00.html

In response, North Korean forces cross the DMZ and launch an invasion of the south by disguising thousands of troops within groups of refugees, creating what is called "an irrgular warfare-type scenario that may require a mixture of conventional and counterinsurgency tactics."

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1897105,00.html#ixzz0eb1KAlRC

...............................

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/The+m...r-preparing+for+a+two-front+war...-a019189453

When the Soviet Empire began to collapse in 1989, General Colin Powell Noun 1. Colin Powell - United States general who was the first African American to serve as chief of staff; later served as Secretary of State under President George W. Bush (born 1937)
Colin luther Powell, Powell
..... Click the link for more information., then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is by law the highest ranking overall military officer of the United States military, and the principal military adviser to the President of the United States. , fearful that Americans would demand "too large" a peace dividend, developed the Rogue Doctrine. This doctrine postulated that in the post-cold war era The Post-Cold War era is a time period following the end of the Cold War. Its beginning is dated either in 1989, when the Revolutions of 1989 occurred in Eastern Europe and amicable relations developed between the United States and the Soviet Union, or it is dated in 1991 with the , the military threats to the U.S. would come from rogue states like Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Cuba, and North Korea, and that the U.S. needed to be able to handle at least two of these rogues simultaneously. Powell reasoned that if the U.S. had only a one-war capability, North Korea, for example, might be tempted to take advantage of the U.S. while this nation was fighting a war in the Persian Gulf Persian Gulf, arm of the Arabian Sea, 90,000 sq mi (233,100 sq km), between the Arabian peninsula and Iran, extending c.600 mi (970 km) from the Shatt al Arab delta to the Strait of Hormuz, which links it with the Gulf of Oman.
..... Click the link for more information.. Handling these two major regional contingencies (MRCs) simultaneously, Powell argued, would require a force structure and spending level approximately 25 percent below the 1990 level, but more, in inflated adjusted dollars, than was spent in the Nixon and Carter years, and about 90 percent of the average level of defense outlays in the entire cold war period.

 

[Vector]

Flying low and fast through Jordan and Iraq would be my guess.

I don't think refueling will be an option. Maybe they'll just ditch in the gulf.

Mike

The US has built three airbases inside Iraq and we still effectively control the airspace over Iraq. Additionally there are three US aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf at this time. Israel will have to overfly Jordan, but they don't have much of an air force to worry about, going or coming. Some behind-the-scenes arm twisting will probably be enough to keep the Saudis out of the way. They are already unhappy about rumors that Israel may get some US F-22 Raptors and they won't. We just tell the Saudis that the Israeli deal will be put on hold in exchange for overflight rights during this mission. We don't have to say how long the Raptor deal will be on hold.
With US Naval aviation providing de-facto fighter cover over the Gulf and central Iraq serving as divert landing/refueling stops, as well as the USAF providing protection there--especially on the way back--the only real operational problem an Israeli strike is going to have is when they cross into Iranian airspace.
Intel is spotty at best about Iran's air defenses. Do they have the new Russian S-300 SAM batteries or not? Are they operational? What are their rules of engagement--do Russians have authorization to fire independent of Iranian permission? Or are the systems Iranian manned? What about the Iranian air force? How many of the MiG-25s, Su-27s and Su-29s that defected from Iraq during the first Gulf War are combat capable? For that matter, how many F-4 Phantoms and F-14 Tomcats sold to the Shah of Iran are combat capable?
Israel will have to hit the reactor at Busheur. Thats 600 miles from Israel, one way. Other targets are in and around Tehran, and they are buried and hardedned. That's a 1000+ mile one way flight, a lot of fuel to burn. Without dodging enemy missiles and aircraft.

It's doable, but it won't be easy.

 

[China Connection]

From Russia With Love: Iran Gets Top Air Defense System

The mullahs will soon be able to protect their nuclear sites against attacks by Israel or the U.S.
January 22, 2009 - by 'Reza Kahlili'

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/from-russia-with-love-iran-gets-top-air-defense-system/

Esmaeil Kosari, deputy head of the Iranian parliament’s foreign affairs and national security commission, recently announced that Russia had started supplying components for S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Iran. The sophisticated S-300 missile defense system is capable of intercepting 100 ballistic missiles or aircraft at once within a range of over 90 miles at low and high altitudes. They are also effective against cruise missiles and, because of their range, a danger to non-combat aircraft such as AWACS planes, stand-by rescue planes, and other planes with protective missions.

Iran’s defense minister, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, also verified such delivery, adding that Tehran would elaborate on the missile defense system “when the occasion presents itself.”

The U.S. administration’s failure to serve notice to Russia after its delivery of the TOR M-1 air defense system earlier this year to Iran has emboldened Russia to disregard the international community’s will in stopping Iran from its pursuit of building a nuclear bomb. The mullahs who rule over Iran will soon have the means to protect their nuclear sites against any possible attacks by Israel or the United States. Revolutionary Guards personnel were sent to Russia to train on the S-300 system, so when the missile system was delivered to Iran, the Guards personnel were ready for its deployment.

Iran, which has defied the world and the UN Security Council with the continuation of its uranium-enrichment process, is also expanding its ballistic missile program, which currently is capable of targeting Tel Aviv, Riyadh, U.S. bases in Iraq, and the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Now with these new air defense systems, Iranian leaders feel more protected in their pursuit of a nuclear bomb.

When I worked as a spy for the CIA in the Revolutionary Guards, I reported on Moscow’s cooperation with the mullahs in establishing their intelligence infrastructure and providing military help in the mullahs’ confrontation with the West. The Russians and the mullahs share one common goal: the end of U.S. superiority and influence in the Middle East and the world. Therefore, any collaboration between the two that undermines the U.S. and the West both financially and militarily is seen as a legitimate act, and it is with this in mind that Russia will back Iran in its pursuit of nuclear arms to destabilize the balance of power in the Middle East; embolden Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria; and bring fear among U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.

On July 9, 2008, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said that based on what he knows, it’s highly unlikely for the Iranians to obtain those air defense missiles anytime soon. Once again, U.S. officials, just as they have over the past 30 years since the Islamic revolution in Iran, have fallen asleep at the wheel, and this time the wreck could leave millions dead as the mullahs are ever closer to building a nuclear bomb. They will soon have enough enriched uranium for three nuclear bombs. With this in mind, allow me to introduce you to just some of the players running the Iranian government:

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

* The Iranian supreme leader.

* In 1997, a German court convicted two men of murder in the 1992 Mykonos Restaurant assassinations of Sadiq Sharafkindi, an Iranian-Kurdish leader, and three of his associates. Presiding Judge Frithjof Kubsch said the gangland-style murders had been ordered by Iran’s Committee for Special Operations, headed by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Iranian president at the time, Hashemi Rafsanjani.

* Approved of the Marine Corps barracks bombing in Lebanon.

* Approved of the Pan Am bombing over Lockerbie.

* Approved of the Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia.

* Approved of the 1998 murders of Iranian dissident intellectuals.

* Approved plans for the Quds Force to engage American forces in Iraq.

Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani

* The chairman of the Assembly of Experts (the body that chooses the supreme leader) and the chairman of the Expediency Council (the body that mediates between Parliament and the Guardian Council).

* Approved of the Marine Corps barracks bombing in Lebanon.

* Ordered the Pan Am bombing over Lockerbie.

* Approved of the Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia.

* Approved of the 1998 murders of Iranian dissident intellectuals.

* Approved plans for the Quds Force to engage American forces in Iraq.

* In 2006, an Argentine judge issued an arrest warrant for Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani over the 1994 Jewish center bombing in Buenos Aires.

Mohsen Rezaei

* The secretary of the Expediency Council and the former commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards.

* In 2006, an Argentine judge issued an arrest warrant over the 1994 Jewish center bombing in Buenos Aires.

* Also on Interpol’s most wanted list.

Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar

* Iran’s defense minister.

* Involved in the Marine Corps barracks bombing in Lebanon.

* Involved in the hostage-taking of Americans in Lebanon.

Ahmad Vahidi

* Iran’s deputy defense minister and former Quds Force commander.

* Involved in the hostage-taking of Americans in Lebanon.

* Involved in the Marine Corps barracks bombing in Lebanon.

* Involved in the Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia in coordination with al-Qaeda.

* In 2006, an Argentine judge issued an arrest warrant over the 1994 Jewish center bombing in Buenos Aires.

* On Interpol’s most wanted list.

Ali Fallahian

* Former Iranian intelligence minister and close associate of and adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

* The mastermind of the 1998 murders of Iranian dissident intellectuals.

* In 2006, an Argentine judge issued an arrest warrant over the 1994 Jewish center bombing in Buenos Aires.

* On Interpol’s most wanted list.

* Also, international arrest warrants have been issued by a German court in 1996 and a Swiss court in 2006 for his leadership role in the murder of Iranian dissidents in both countries.

Ali Akbar Velayati

* Former Iranian foreign minister and close associate of and adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei.

* In 2006, an Argentine judge issued an arrest warrant over the 1994 Jewish center bombing in Buenos Aires.

Let this be a wake-up call to U.S. officials.

 

[China Connection]

Post Iran Iraq War
C-130 Hercules in 2008

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Force

Immediately after the end of the Iran–Iraq War, the IRIAF was partially re-built by limited purchases of MiG-29 fighters and Su-24 bombers from the Soviet Union, as well as F-7M and FT-7 fighters from China. While a welcome reinforcement, these types never replaced the older, U.S.-built F-4 Phantoms or F-14 Tomcats (now the only air arm in the world to continue using the fighter), or even Northrop F-5 Tiger IIs. Instead, the IRIAF continued efforts to maintain these types in service, and began a number of projects with the intention to refurbish and upgrade them.

During the Gulf War in 1991, many Iraqi pilots and aircraft of the Iraqi Air Force, escaped to Iran to avoid destruction in the bombing campaign. The Iranians impounded these aircraft after the war and never returned them, putting them in the service of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force [1] - claiming them as reparations for the Iran–Iraq War.

These included several Mirage F1s, MiG-25 Foxbats, MiG-21 Fishbeds, MiG-27s, Su-24MK Fencer-Ds, MiG-29 Fulcrums, Su-20s, Su-22M Fitters, Su-25 Frogfoots, MiG-23s and a number of Il-76s, including the secretive, one-off AEW-AWACS prototype Il-76 "ADNAN 1"

In 2006, the Iranian media published a series of reports that suggested Venezuela was interested to sell its 21 F-16 Fighting Falcon to Iran.[2] The rumors were confirmed, when an Hugo Chavez adviser told the Associated Press that: "Venezuela's military is considering selling its fleet of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to another country, possibly Iran, in response to a U.S. ban on arms sales to President Hugo Chavez's government". In response, Sean McCormack, the U.S. State Department spokesman, warned Venezuela and suggested: "Without the written consent of the United States, Venezuela can't transfer these defense articles, and in this case F-16s, to a third country".[3]

According to Moscow Defense Brief, between 2000 and 2006 Russia delivered the following items to Iran: 6 Su-25UBK ground attack fighter-trainers, 12 Mi171Sh military transport helicopters, 21 Mi-171 transport helicopters and 3 Mi-17B-5 medical helicopters. A 700$ million repair and modernization program of the Iranian Air Force's MiG-29 and Su-24 fighters was also completed.[4]

On 22 September 2009, an Ilyushin IL76-MD, serial number 5-8208, crashed near Varamin killing all seven people on board.[5] The crash was the result of a mid air collision with a Northrop F-5E Tiger II.[6]
Current composition

The IRIAF composition has changed very little since 1979. The first, very limited re-location of several units - including disbandment of some, and establishing of new squadrons - occurred in autumn 1980, when the F-4D-fleet was concentrated at Shiraz, two squadrons of F-4Es moved from Shiraz to Hamedan, and a squadron of F-14 Tomcats deployed to Mehrabad. Other deployments during the war with Iraq were mainly of temporary character, even if a major re-organization of existing air-defense assets - foremost SAM- and AAA-units - was undertaken in 1985. There has been no major re-organization during all of the 1990s either.

Equipment, capabilities and combat performance of the IRIAF strongly influenced the development of the Iraqi Air Force (IrAF), during the 1980s, but also that of the United Arab Emirates Air Force, in the 1990s and the most recent times.
Jane's Sentinel Estimate of Units 1993

Source: Jane's Sentinel, Islamic Republic of Iran, 1993, p.27
Tactical Air Base Location Type Unit
TAB 1 Mehrabad F-5E squadron
Mehrabad F-7M squadron
Mehrabad F-14A/MiG-29 squadron
Mehrabad C-130H/Il-76 squadron
Mehrabad F 27/Falcom squadron
TAB 2 Tabriz F-4D/E squadron
Tabriz F-5E squadron
Tabriz F-7M squadron
Tabriz C-130H flight
TAB 3 Hamadan F-6 squadron
Hamadan F-7M squadron
TAB 4 Dezful F-4D/E squadron
TAB 4 Dezful F-5E squadron
TAB 5 not identified
TAB 6 Bushehr F-4D/E squadron
Bushehr F-7M flight
Bushehr C-130H flight
TAB 7 Shiraz F-5E squadron
Shiraz F-14A/MiG-29 squadron
Shiraz C-130H/Il-76 squadron
Shiraz F-27 flight
Alleged purchases
Su-30

The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran has signed an arms deal with the Russian Rosoboronexport arms group to buy 250 Su-30 MKM warplanes and 20 Il-78 MKI aerial tankers. It is reported that Israeli defense officials were investigating the potential Iran-Russia deal, in which Iran would pay $1 billion a dozen squadrons’ worth of the jets.[7] Iran and Russia have both denied this and have rejected these claims as propaganda.[8][9][10] In a recent broadcast the "Mehr News Agency" has reported that they (the reporters) saw a dozen Su 30s in a maneuver that took place on 15 and 16 September 2008; further the report reads: "In this joint maneuver of the IRIAF and the AFAGIR which is called the 'Guardians of the Nations Skies' the Air Forces of Iran have tested domestically developed systems as well as newly purchased systems (from Russia and China)."[11] The harsh warnings of Israel that it could attack Iran at any time and the Russo-American conflict over Georgia have led to reported weapons sales to Iran by Russia, but so far there have no details been revealed by either side.
J-10

The Russian news agency Novosti reported that Business & Financial Markets said Iran has signed a deal with China to buy two squadrons/24 of J-10 fighter planes with Russian-made AL-31FN engines. The total cost of the planes is estimated at $1 billion, and deliveries are expected between 2008 and 2010. China denied that it had agreed to sell its home-grown fighter jets to Iran, saying no talks had taken place. Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao told reporters: "It's not true, it is an irresponsible report, China has not had talks with Iran on J-10 jets."[12][13][14]
JF-17 Thunder

According to Global Security, in July 2003 Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Corporation (CAIC) unveiled the new ‘Super-7’ or Chao Qi fighter plane to the public, China supposedly received orders from Iran. The plane, now called the FC-1 is an export version of the JF-17 Thunder and entered production in 2006. As of 2008 Iran hasn't received any such plane.[7]

 

[China Connection]

Israel threatens to 'use force' against Iran
Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:34:47 GMT

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117817&sectionid=351020104


Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon says Israel might use force to prevent Iran from developing "nuclear weapons", a claim Iran vehemently rejects.

"Iran's plan will probably be stopped by a regime change or, if there is no other choice, by recourse to force to deprive Iran of its nuclear arms production capabilities," Yaalon told a security conference in Herzliya.

"It is important to continue to make clear to the extremist regime in Iran that all options remain on the table and that ignoring the demands of the international community will probably end in bitter tears for Iran," AFP quoted Yaalon as saying on Wednesday.

Yaalon's reference to force was not new. Israel has consistently voiced its determination to stop Iran's nuclear program even through military options.

Israel which is believed to be the only possessor of nuclear arms in the Middle East accuses Iran of pursuing a military nuclear program.

Iran, a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has declared that its peaceful nuclear program is being pursued within international regulations .The UN nuclear watchdog has repeatedly announced that it had not found any evidence to support the allegations that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear arms.

 

[China Connection]

The message is clear: Israel must not strike Iran
By Gideon Levy
Tags: Israel Iran attack, Iran

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1147481.html

In the sea of brainwashing, intimidation and cliches surrounding us, it's sometimes worthwhile to listen to a voice from the outside, a voice no less proficient than the Israeli "experts" on security matters and Iran. The voice of reason. Such was the voice of the senior European diplomat who had served as an ambassador in Tehran for about five years and was visiting Israel this week.

Over dinner in his country's ambassador's residence, the man outlined his views about Iran, with which his country maintains extensive, complex ties. This man, now about to be appointed ambassador to Germany, continues to visit Iran, although his tenure there ended in 2004.

His message was clear and razor sharp - Israel must not attack Iran. This would only cause harm. If anything could bring Iran closer to the bomb, it would be an Israeli offensive, which seems imminent. The European diplomat is convinced that Iran does not intend to produce a nuclear bomb, only to walk on the edge and prepare for the option of developing it. This has become a matter of national honor for the Iranians.
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The diplomat knows there is also another possibility, that Iran could be heading toward the bomb, and he realizes there is no guarantee this will not happen. And yet he is profoundly convinced that Iran will not do so.

An Israeli attack, on the other hand, which in his view would put off the bomb by merely two years, would only spur the Iranians to develop it. Tehran knows that the United States wouldn't have dared to invade Iraq and Afghanistan had these countries had nuclear weapons. The Iranians are sure that this goes for them as well. So their way to maintain the regime, if it feels threatened, is to develop the bomb. The threats to attack Iran will only push them toward this.

An Israeli attack on Iran would also unite the Iranian people behind the regime, the man says. Israel's enemy today is only the regime, not the people.

The Iranian people are busy with other problems and are not preoccupied with the Palestinian issue or whether Israel should or shouldn't exist.

The last elections, whose results the diplomat is certain were forged, opened large cracks in public support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime. The West must not stir things up in Iran now, he warns, because any agitation would only close the ranks and wipe out the opposition, which has yet to say its final word. The subversive processes must be allowed to do their work and refrain from interfering under any circumstances.

An Israeli attack would be worse than agitation because it would destroy the opposition abruptly and unite the people in support of their leader. As in any other country, any military humiliation would lead to increased support for the ruler, as we well know from our own conduct.

Since Ahmadinejad rose to power, the Iranian leadership has greatly increased its intervention in everyday life. Ahmadinejad has replaced the government bureaucrats with his own people from the provinces and the countryside. His control over the administration is stronger than ever, which probably stirs even more resistance. The Iranians have already proved their ability to overthrow tyranny. Women are a rising force in society and perhaps the word will come from them. "Cherchez la femme," the diplomat said in French.

So what should we do? In certain situations, he said, one should do nothing. Any other option is immeasurably worse and more dangerous. So what do we do, the Israeli listener may ask himself, and reply: Make peace with Syria and the Palestinians, to undermine Iran's threats. Senior Iranian officials have said that any peace between Israel and the Palestinians would be acceptable to them. This would destroy the basis for Iran's threats to eliminate Israel.

Can the ranting and raving Israel, which sometimes hastens to attack and often uses violent language, the Israel that believes more than anything in wham-bam military solutions, listen to this wise advice? It's very doubtful.

We won't make peace, because why should we and what's the hurry? After all, the campaign of scaring the Israeli people and intimidating the world serves the Israeli regime well.

It distracts the public from other problems and releases Israel from the need to deal with Goldstone, the occupation and all the rest.

So come on, Bibi, attack. And may God have mercy.