ALERT Ebola 'could become airborne': United Nations warns of 'nightmare scenario' as virus sprea

rafter

Since 1999
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...mare-scenario-as-virus-spreads-to-the-US.html

Ebola 'could become airborne': United Nations warns of 'nightmare scenario' as virus spreads to the US

Exclusive: Anthony Banbury, chief of the UN's Ebola mission, says there is a chance the deadly virus could mutate to become infectious through the air

There is a ‘nightmare’ chance that the Ebola virus could become airborne if the epidemic is not brought under control fast enough, the chief of the UN’s Ebola mission has warned.

Anthony Banbury, the Secretary General’s Special Representative, said that aid workers are racing against time to bring the epidemic under control, in case the Ebola virus mutates and becomes even harder to deal with.

“The longer it moves around in human hosts in the virulent melting pot that is West Africa, the more chances increase that it could mutate,” he told the Telegraph. “It is a nightmare scenario [that it could become airborne], and unlikely, but it can’t be ruled out.”

He admitted that the international community had been “a bit late” to respond to the epidemic, but that it was “not too late” and that aid workers needed to “hit [Ebola] hard” to rein in the deadly disease.

Mr Banbury was speaking shortly before the first Ebola diagnosis was made in the US on Tuesday evening. The man, who contracted Ebola in Liberia before flying to Dallas, Texas, is the first case to be diagnosed outside Africa, where the disease has already killed more than 3,000 people.

The number of people infected with Ebola is doubling every 20 to 30 days, and the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention has forecast that there could be as many as 1.4m cases of Ebola by January, in the worst case scenario. More than 3,300 people have been killed by the disease this year.

Mr Banbury, who has served in the UN since 1988, said that the epidemic was the worst disaster he had ever witnessed.

“We have never seen anything like it. In a career working in these kinds of situations, wars, natural disasters – I have never seen anything as serious or dangerous or high risk as this one. I’ve heard other people saying this as well, senior figures who are not being alarmist. Behind closed doors, they are saying they have never seen anything as bad,” he said.

However, he added that the UN now has the “political will” and most of the materials it needs to bring the epidemic under control. He flew to Ghana on Sunday, and is leading a mission which aims to rein in the spread of Ebola within the next 90 days.
“We have the political will. We are getting them [the resources]. They are not quite there but we are getting them. Now is the time to implement, implement, implement. It is all about speed now.

“There is a limited window of opportunity. We need to hit it and we need to hit it hard. We haven’t done that but we are doing it now.

"Certainly we are late but the expectation is that we are not too late. We are going to have a very big, fast effort…I have never seen the UN move at this speed or with such coordination. We are seeing the kind of response we need, but yes, it’s a bit late.”

The UN team will need to spend the first 30 days getting emergency infrastructure and training in place, ensuring that aid workers and medical supplies are ready to be deployed wherever there is a new Ebola outbreak. They aim to control the disease as far as possible within those communities.

“We intend to see a significant improvement in the 30 to 60-day window, so that by 90 days the curve is headed in the right direction. We are putting resource in place very fast, and we will continue to flow in. It is not all there at the moment,” Mr Banbury said. “That’s the theory and that’s the plan. If it spreads in an urban setting, then it’s a different story.”

“I would not say I am confident we will succeed [in the 90-day plan] given the absolutely merciless numbers of the spread and what needs to be done to get it under control. These are extremely, extremely ambitious targets, set by doctors. We are blowing down bureaucratic barriers to get things done…but I don’t know if it will be enough…I would not want to give the impression that we can wave a magic wand.”

It is a mistake to treat the Ebola epidemic as just a medical crisis, he added. Instead it is a logistical and economic crisis, whose impact is strongest in those countries hardest hit by Ebola – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – but which may be felt around the world.

“Farmers are being impacted. Markets are being impacted. We will probably see much higher food prices and other people, like restaurant workers, will lose out on wages,” he said

“The crisis is far beyond a medical one. It is very much an economic crisis, both macro and micro. It is going to affect food security and have a devastating impact on the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people who were able to earn a living as farmers and food workers but are not any longer. The economic shock around this is terrible.”
 

grower

Member
From my blog of a week or so ago:

While the CDC and the WHO have repeatedly assured the public that Ebola is not an airborne illness, lingering in the air of a room or traveling through the air ducts of a building, that may not be entirely true.

In the late 1980s, a group of monkeys imported for scientific use fell ill at a facility in Reston, VA. The virus was determined to be a variation on the Ebola virus, 3 and was recorded as spreading through the ventilation ducts from one room where the monkeys were kept to another roomful of monkeys.

Influenza is a more familiar disease, and it is considered an airborne illness in that it can linger in the air and infect people not in direct physical contact with a sick person. The ability of such a disease to go airborne is enhanced in colder temperatures, which is why we have a “flu season” in the winter. So far, Ebola has been confined to tropical climates, but if it comes to our shores, it could conceivably spread like kudzu when the temperatures begin to drop. Nobody has seen what Ebola can do in a colder climate.
 

sssarawolf

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yes of course it's going to spread and we all know it, especially when anyone from those highly infected countries can just step on a plane and go any where they want to, as we have just seen.

Yes grower, I am afraid you are so right.
 

changed

Preferred pronouns: dude/bro
Here is something many people probably haven't thought of: Over in west Africa the people who are dying of ebola are probably peasants that don't have two nickels to rub together. However, the guy with ebola in the hospital in Dallas has family in the US and they probably have jobs and cash. So think about this scenario, the ebola guy get's in from Liberia with the illness perculating under his skin. He says boy that was a long flight, cousin Hadji, do you have five bucks so that I can go to 7/11 to get a cherry slurpy? So he gets money and gets ebola all over it and then gives it to the clerk at 7/11, they give it to a customer that takes it and deposits it in the bank. The bank teller gives it out to another customer, and on and on and on.


Bring in a cashless society to prevent the spread of ebola. One more reason bringing this infection to the US is being done on purpose.


So yea, airborne ebola might be a threat, but how about cash-borne ebola as a way to spread it?
 

SAR01

Social ButterFly
what about petting your companion animal, can it spread... ugh! not to the aniaml but to others petting the aniaml.
 

delta38

Umbrella Corp.
The rest of the article:
Other experts, however, believe the risk of the virus becoming airborne risks being overstated.
Professor David Heymann CBE, chairman of Public Health England and professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said no virus transmitted by bodily fluids - as Ebola is - had ever mutated to airborne transmission.
"There has never been a virus transmitted in this manner that converts to a respiratory virus, and there is no evidence that this has ever occurred in the epidemiology," he said at a discussion programme on the virus in London on Wednesday night. He mentioned HIV and Hepatitis B as example of viruses transmitted by bodily fluids that had "never converted to a respiratory virus".

A sneeze can spray droplets 17'+,and having read that it takes as few as 10 virii to infect, that seems pretty airborne to me.

However, i do not believe that the virus has mutated to become an airborne pathogen, such as influenza.

Tim
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
Sadly, this could actually be Marburg Virus also and what's worse, there is a weaponized version of this in the world.

I wonder if this is really Vladimir's revenge....
 

delta38

Umbrella Corp.
I just found this. I haven't seen it posted, but if it has, please excuse this post.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...rs-need-optimal-respiratory-protection-ebola#


COMMENTARY: Health workers need optimal respiratory protection for Ebola
Filed Under: Ebola; VHF
Lisa M Brosseau, ScD, and Rachael Jones, PhD | Sep 17, 2014
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papr.jpg

Courtesy of 3M Company
A powered air-purifying respirator (PAPR).
Editor's Note: Today's commentary was submitted to CIDRAP by the authors, who are national experts on respiratory protection and infectious disease transmission. In May they published a similar commentary on MERS-CoV. Dr Brosseau is a Professor and Dr Jones an Assistant Professor in the School of Public Health, Division of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, at the University of Illinois at Chicago.



Healthcare workers play a very important role in the successful containment of outbreaks of infectious diseases like Ebola. The correct type and level of personal protective equipment (PPE) ensures that healthcare workers remain healthy throughout an outbreak—and with the current rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak in West Africa, it's imperative to favor more conservative measures.

The precautionary principle—that any action designed to reduce risk should not await scientific certainty—compels the use of respiratory protection for a pathogen like Ebola virus that has:

No proven pre- or post-exposure treatment modalities
A high case-fatality rate
Unclear modes of transmission
We believe there is scientific and epidemiologic evidence that Ebola virus has the potential to be transmitted via infectious aerosol particles both near and at a distance from infected patients, which means that healthcare workers should be wearing respirators, not facemasks.1

The minimum level of protection in high-risk settings should be a respirator with an assigned protection factor greater than 10. A powered air-purifying respirator (PAPR) with a hood or helmet offers many advantages over an N95 filtering facepiece or similar respirator, being more protective, comfortable, and cost-effective in the long run.

We strongly urge the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to seek funds for the purchase and transport of PAPRs to all healthcare workers currently fighting the battle against Ebola throughout Africa—and beyond.

There has been a lot of on-line and published controversy about whether Ebola virus can be transmitted via aerosols. Most scientific and medical personnel, along with public health organizations, have been unequivocal in their statements that Ebola can be transmitted only by direct contact with virus-laden fluids2,3 and that the only modes of transmission we should be concerned with are those termed "droplet" and "contact."

These statements are based on two lines of reasoning. The first is that no one located at a distance from an infected individual has contracted the disease, or the converse, every person infected has had (or must have had) "direct" contact with the body fluids of an infected person.

This reflects an incorrect and outmoded understanding of infectious aerosols, which has been institutionalized in policies, language, culture, and approaches to infection control. We will address this below. Briefly, however, the important points are that virus-laden bodily fluids may be aerosolized and inhaled while a person is in proximity to an infectious person and that a wide range of particle sizes can be inhaled and deposited throughout the respiratory tract.

The second line of reasoning is that respirators or other control measures for infectious aerosols cannot be recommended in developing countries because the resources, time, and/or understanding for such measures are lacking.4

Although there are some important barriers to the use of respirators, especially PAPRs, in developing countries, healthcare workers everywhere deserve and should be afforded the same best-practice types of protection, regardless of costs and resources. Every healthcare worker is a precious commodity whose well-being ensures everyone is protected.

If we are willing to offer infected US healthcare workers expensive treatments and experimental drugs free of charge when most of the world has no access to them, we wonder why we are unwilling to find the resources to provide appropriate levels of comparatively less expensive respiratory protection to every healthcare worker around the world.

How are infectious diseases transmitted via aerosols?
Medical and infection control professionals have relied for years on a paradigm for aerosol transmission of infectious diseases based on very outmoded research and an overly simplistic interpretation of the data. In the 1940s and 50s, William F. Wells and other "aerobiologists" employed now significantly out-of-date sampling methods (eg, settling plates) and very blunt analytic approaches (eg, cell culturing) to understand the movement of bacterial aerosols in healthcare and other settings. Their work, though groundbreaking at the time, provides a very incomplete picture.

Early aerobiologists were not able to measure small particles near an infectious person and thus assumed such particles existed only far from the source. They concluded that organisms capable of aerosol transmission (termed "airborne") can only do so at around 3 feet or more from the source. Because they thought that only larger particles would be present near the source, they believed people would be exposed only via large "droplets" on their face, eyes, or nose.

Modern research, using more sensitive instruments and analytic methods, has shown that aerosols emitted from the respiratory tract contain a wide distribution of particle sizes—including many that are small enough to be inhaled.5,6 Thus, both small and large particles will be present near an infectious person.

The chance of large droplets reaching the facial mucous membranes is quite small, as the nasal openings are small and shielded by their external and internal structure. Although close contact may permit large-droplet exposure, it also maximizes the possibility of aerosol inhalation.

As noted by early aerobiologists, liquid in a spray aerosol, such as that generated during coughing or sneezing, will quickly evaporate,7 which increases the concentration of small particles in the aerosol. Because evaporation occurs in milliseconds, many of these particles are likely to be found near the infectious person.

The current paradigm also assumes that only "small" particles (less than 5 micrometers [mcm]) can be inhaled and deposited in the respiratory tract. This is not true. Particles as large as 100 mcm (and perhaps even larger) can be inhaled into the mouth and nose. Larger particles are deposited in the nasal passages, pharynx, and upper regions of the lungs, while smaller particles are more likely to deposit in the lower, alveolar regions. And for many pathogens, infection is possible regardless of the particle size or deposition site.

It's time to abandon the old paradigm of three mutually exclusive transmission routes for a new one that considers the full range of particle sizes both near and far from a source. In addition, we need to factor in other important features of infectivity, such as the ability of a pathogen to remain viable in air at room temperature and humidity and the likelihood that systemic disease can result from deposition of infectious particles in the respiratory system or their transfer to the gastrointestinal tract.

We recommend using "aerosol transmissible" rather than the outmoded terms "droplet" or "airborne" to describe pathogens that can transmit disease via infectious particles suspended in air.

Is Ebola an aerosol-transmissible disease?
We recently published a commentary on the CIDRAP site discussing whether Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) could be an aerosol-transmissible disease, especially in healthcare settings. We drew comparisons with a similar and more well-studied disease, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

For Ebola and other filoviruses, however, there is much less information and research on disease transmission and survival, especially in healthcare settings.

Being at first skeptical that Ebola virus could be an aerosol-transmissible disease, we are now persuaded by a review of experimental and epidemiologic data that this might be an important feature of disease transmission, particularly in healthcare settings.

What do we know about Ebola transmission?
No one knows for certain how Ebola virus is transmitted from one person to the next. The virus has been found in the saliva, stool, breast milk, semen, and blood of infected persons.8,9 Studies of transmission in Ebola virus outbreaks have identified activities like caring for an infected person, sharing a bed, funeral activities, and contact with blood or other body fluids to be key risk factors for transmission.10-12

On the basis of epidemiologic evidence, it has been presumed that Ebola viruses are transmitted by contaminated hands in contact with the mouth or eyes or broken skin or by splashes or sprays of body fluids into these areas. Ebola viruses appear to be capable of initiating infection in a variety of human cell types,13,14 but the primary portal or portals of entry into susceptible hosts have not been identified.

Some pathogens are limited in the cell type and location they infect. Influenza, for example, is generally restricted to respiratory epithelial cells, which explains why flu is primarily a respiratory infection and is most likely aerosol transmissible. HIV infects T-helper cells in the lymphoid tissues and is primarily a bloodborne pathogen with low probability for transmission via aerosols.

Ebola virus, on the other hand, is a broader-acting and more non-specific pathogen that can impede the proper functioning of macrophages and dendritic cells—immune response cells located throughout the epithelium.15,16 Epithelial tissues are found throughout the body, including in the respiratory tract. Ebola prevents these cells from carrying out their antiviral functions but does not interfere with the initial inflammatory response, which attracts additional cells to the infection site. The latter contribute to further dissemination of the virus and similar adverse consequences far beyond the initial infection site.

The potential for transmission via inhalation of aerosols, therefore, cannot be ruled out by the observed risk factors or our knowledge of the infection process. Many body fluids, such as vomit, diarrhea, blood, and saliva, are capable of creating inhalable aerosol particles in the immediate vicinity of an infected person. Cough was identified among some cases in a 1995 outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo,11 and coughs are known to emit viruses in respirable particles.17 The act of vomiting produces an aerosol and has been implicated in airborne transmission of gastrointestinal viruses.18,19 Regarding diarrhea, even when contained by toilets, toilet flushing emits a pathogen-laden aerosol that disperses in the air.20-22

Experimental work has shown that Marburg and Ebola viruses can be isolated from sera and tissue culture medium at room temperature for up to 46 days, but at room temperature no virus was recovered from glass, metal, or plastic surfaces.23 Aerosolized (1-3 mcm) Marburg, Ebola, and Reston viruses, at 50% to 55% relative humidity and 72°F, had biological decay rates of 3.04%, 3.06%. and 1.55% per minute, respectively. These rates indicate that 99% loss in aerosol infectivity would occur in 93, 104, and 162 minutes, respectively.23

In still air, 3-mcm particles can take up to an hour to settle. With air currents, these and smaller particles can be transported considerable distances before they are deposited on a surface.

There is also some experimental evidence that Ebola and other filoviruses can be transmitted by the aerosol route. Jaax et al24 reported the unexpected death of two rhesus monkeys housed approximately 3 meters from monkeys infected with Ebola virus, concluding that respiratory or eye exposure to aerosols was the only possible explanation.

Zaire Ebola viruses have also been transmitted in the absence of direct contact among pigs25 and from pigs to non-human primates,26 which experienced lung involvement in infection. Persons with no known direct contact with Ebola virus disease patients or their bodily fluids have become infected.12

Direct injection and exposure via a skin break or mucous membranes are the most efficient ways for Ebola to transmit. It may be that inhalation is a less efficient route of transmission for Ebola and other filoviruses, as lung involvement has not been reported in all non-human primate studies of Ebola aerosol infectivity.27 However, the respiratory and gastrointestinal systems are not complete barriers to Ebola virus. Experimental studies have demonstrated that it is possible to infect non-human primates and other mammals with filovirus aerosols.25-27

Altogether, these epidemiologic and experimental data offer enough evidence to suggest that Ebola and other filoviruses may be opportunistic with respect to aerosol transmission.28 That is, other routes of entry may be more important and probable, but, given the right conditions, it is possible that transmission could also occur via aerosols.

Guidance from the CDC and WHO recommends the use of facemasks for healthcare workers providing routine care to patients with Ebola virus disease and respirators when aerosol-generating procedures are performed. (Interestingly, the 1998 WHO and CDC infection-control guidance for viral hemorrhagic fevers in Africa, still available on the CDC Web site, recommends the use of respirators.)

Facemasks, however, do not offer protection against inhalation of small infectious aerosols, because they lack adequate filters and do not fit tightly against the face.1 Therefore, a higher level of protection is necessary.

Which respirator to wear?
As described in our earlier CIDRAP commentary, we can use a Canadian control-banding approach to select the most appropriate respirator for exposures to Ebola in healthcare settings.29 (See this document for a detailed description of the Canadian control banding approach and the data used to select respirators in our examples below.)

The control banding method involves the following steps:

Identify the organism's risk group (1 to 4). Risk group reflects the toxicity of an organism, including the degree and type of disease and whether treatments are available. Ebola is in risk group 4, the most toxic organisms, because it can cause serious human or animal disease, is easily transmitted, directly or indirectly, and currently has no effective treatments or preventive measures.
Identify the generation rate. The rate of aerosol generation reflects the number of particles created per time (eg, particles per second). Some processes, such as coughing, create more aerosols than others, like normal breathing. Some processes, like intubation and toilet flushing, can rapidly generate very large quantities of aerosols. The control banding approach assigns a qualitative rank ranging from low (1) to high (4) (eg, normal breathing without coughing has a rank of 1).
Identify the level of control. Removing contaminated air and replacing it with clean air, as accomplished with a ventilation system, is effective for lowering the overall concentration of infectious aerosol particles in a space, although it may not be effective at lowering concentration in the immediate vicinity of a source. The number of air changes per hour (ACH) reflects the rate of air removal and replacement. This is a useful variable, because it is relatively easy to measure and, for hospitals, reflects building code requirements for different types of rooms. Again, a qualitative ranking is used to reflect low (1) versus high (4) ACH. Even if the true ventilation rate is not known, the examples can be used to select an appropriate air exchange rate.
Identify the respirator assigned protection factor. Respirators are designated by their "class," each of which has an assigned protection factor (APF) that reflects the degree of protection. The APF represents the outside, environmental concentration divided by the inside, facepiece concentration. An APF of 10 means that the outside concentration of a particular contaminant will be 10 times greater than that inside the respirator. If the concentration outside the respirator is very high, an assigned protection factor of 10 may not prevent the wearer from inhaling an infective dose of a highly toxic organism.
Practical examples
Two examples follow. These assume that infectious aerosols are generated only during vomiting, diarrhea, coughing, sneezing, or similar high-energy emissions such as some medical procedures. It is possible that Ebola virus may be shed as an aerosol in other manners not considered.

Caring for a patient in the early stages of disease (no bleeding, vomiting, diarrhea, coughing, sneezing, etc). In this case, the generation rate is 1. For any level of control (less than 3 to more than 12 ACH), the control banding wheel indicates a respirator protection level of 1 (APF of 10), which corresponds to an air purifying (negative pressure) half-facepiece respirator such as an N95 filtering facepiece respirator. This type of respirator requires fit testing.

Caring for a patient in the later stages of disease (bleeding, vomiting, diarrhea, etc). If we assume the highest generation rate (4) and a standard patient room (control level = 2, 3-6 ACH), a respirator with an APF of at least 50 is needed. In the United States, this would be equivalent to either a full-facepiece air-purifying (negative-pressure) respirator or a half-facepiece PAPR (positive pressure), but standards differ in other countries. Fit testing is required for these types of respirators.

The control level (room ventilation) can have a big effect on respirator selection. For the same patient housed in a negative-pressure airborne infection isolation room (6-12 ACH), a respirator with an assigned protection factor of 25 is required. This would correspond in the United States to a PAPR with a loose-fitting facepiece or with a helmet or hood. This type of respirator does not need fit testing.

Implications for protecting health workers in Africa
Healthcare workers have experienced very high rates of morbidity and mortality in the past and current Ebola virus outbreaks. A facemask, or surgical mask, offers no or very minimal protection from infectious aerosol particles. As our examples illustrate, for a risk group 4 organism like Ebola, the minimum level of protection should be an N95 filtering facepiece respirator.

This type of respirator, however, would only be appropriate only when the likelihood of aerosol exposure is very low. For healthcare workers caring for many patients in an epidemic situation, this type of respirator may not provide an adequate level of protection.

For a risk group 4 organism, any activity that has the potential for aerosolizing liquid body fluids, such as medical or disinfection procedures, should be avoided, if possible. Our risk assessment indicates that a PAPR with a full facepiece (APF = 50) or a hood or helmet (APF = 25) would be a better choice for patient care during epidemic conditions.

We recognize that PAPRs present some logistical and infection-control problems. Batteries require frequent charging (which requires a reliable source of electricity), and the entire ensemble requires careful handling and disinfection between uses. A PAPR is also more expensive to buy and maintain than other types of respirators.

On the other hand, a PAPR with a loose-fitting facepiece (hood or helmet) does not require fit testing. Wearing this type of respirator minimizes the need for other types of PPE, such as head coverings and goggles. And, most important, it is much more comfortable to wear than a negative-pressure respirator like an N95, especially in hot environments.

A recent report from a Medecins Sans Frontieres healthcare worker in Sierra Leone30 notes that healthcare workers cannot tolerate the required PPE for more than 40 minutes. Exiting the workplace every 40 minutes requires removal and disinfection or disposal (burning) of all PPE. A PAPR would allow much longer work periods, use less PPE, require fewer doffing episodes, generate less infectious waste, and be more protective. In the long run, we suspect this type of protection could also be less expensive.

Adequate protection is essential
To summarize, for the following reasons we believe that Ebola could be an opportunistic aerosol-transmissible disease requiring adequate respiratory protection:

Patients and procedures generate aerosols, and Ebola virus remains viable in aerosols for up to 90 minutes.
All sizes of aerosol particles are easily inhaled both near to and far from the patient.
Crowding, limited air exchange, and close interactions with patients all contribute to the probability that healthcare workers will be exposed to high concentrations of very toxic infectious aerosols.
Ebola targets immune response cells found in all epithelial tissues, including in the respiratory and gastrointestinal system.
Experimental data support aerosols as a mode of disease transmission in non-human primates.
Risk level and working conditions suggest that a PAPR will be more protective, cost-effective, and comfortable than an N95 filtering facepiece respirator.

Acknowledgements

We thank Kathleen Harriman, PhD, MPH, RN, Chief, Vaccine Preventable Diseases Epidemiology Section, Immunization Branch, California Department of Public Health, and Nicole Vars McCullough, PhD, CIH, Manager, Global Technical Services, Personal Safety Division, 3M Company, for their input and review.

References

Oberg L, Brosseau LM. Surgical mask filter and fit performance. Am J Infect Control 2008 May;36(4):276-82 [Abstract]
CDC. Ebola hemorrhagic fever: transmission. 2014 Aug 13 [Full text]
ECDC. Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa: third update, 1 August 2014. Stockholm: ECDC 2014 Aug 1 [Full text]
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
It's what falls out of the aerosol that matters....

Friday, 3 October 2014
Posted by Ian M Mackay
http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/its-what-falls-out-of-aerosol-that.html


An "aerosol" is a messy word.
It means different things to different people. So does "airborne".





What's in an aerosol?
Here we're talking about a mixture of different sized stuff. Think of the size range
in
a handful the sand from a shelly beach.

A cough/sneeze includes big, wet, heavy propelled droplets that quickly fall to the
ground or hit your windscreen (
hate it when that happens) or your friend's face
(
they hate it when that happens) down to dried or gel-like "droplet nuclei" that
can float in the air for hours, travelling where the wind blows them; and every size
in between.


I've also talked about this before, here.

The public rightly get confused about aerosols. And science and physics and
medicine have their own defined meanings - sometimes at odds with each other -
that may well be out of step with what the public think.

I do wish the the big public health entities would settle on some definitions for
these and other words. It would make everyone's life a lot easier.

Direct contact.

When we talk about "direct contact" and Ebola virus transmission, we do include
the bigger wetter heavier droplets that might be propelled from of a sick person
during vomiting, or coughing as a risk for transmitting virus.

Even though that is not physical direct contact, and even though the droplets
travel across a gap between people - through the air - it is still a direct line from
person A (red in the graphic below) to B (blue). If B is too far away, then those
droplets fall to the ground before they hit B. The droplets may remain infectious
on the ground. That depends on temperature, humidity, surface type and the type
and amount of virus.

The airborne route.

Even though it involves a short period of travel through the air, coughing wet
droplets directly onto someone's mucous membranes is not an airborne thing. The
term "airborne" is reserved for floaty clouds of droplet nuclei. In humans droplet
nuclei have not, to the very best of our knowledge and observations and tests, been
found to contain doses of Ebola virus that cause disease in humans. Too little virus
coughed into the cloud perhaps or too little that survives..it's not known why, but it
is pretty clear that in households where a case of Ebola virus disease was residing,
only those household members who had direct contact developed disease, and
those that breathed the same air but did not have direct contact, did not develop
disease.

While Ebola viruses may be present in floaty clouds of droplet nuclei, or forced to
be in a floaty clouds of droplet nuclei under lab conditions with lab viruses at lab
virus concentrations, a floaty cloud of droplet nuclei has not been shown to act as a
source of acquisition for Ebola virus and resulting disease among humans. Sorry,
did I just repeat myself?

Rest in peace.

Please don't say Reston ebolavirus or the Hot Zone. That (by all accounts riveting)
book was not a scientific work, it is a dramatized work and the language is
colourful and emotive and scary. The Reston ebolavirus event in non-human
primates was never proven to be airborne.


Lastly and most recently, an airborne route was not found to play any role in
causing disease or infection when Ebola virus infected and uninfected non-human
primates were caged near each other. I've written about this and other non-human
primate studies here.


Below is my latest attempt at trying to make all those words into a picture.

If you have ways that can help me make this even simpler - please pass them
along.

Droplet-impact-vs-airborne-cloud.jpg
^click to enlarge
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
What if it is already airborne, because it was weaponized but it's not Ebola but from the same familiy...Africa would be a convenient place for a nation seizing resources to disperse this weapon....and to guarantee we are hit also because of an incompetent President too weak to respond.
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
What if it is already airborne, because it was weaponized but it's not Ebola but from the same familiy...Africa would be a convenient place for a nation seizing resources to disperse this weapon....and to guarantee we are hit also because of an incompetent President too weak to respond.

Quick "how-to":
1) Human, or Bat, or Primate to Pig.
2) Pig to Pig. (and maybe passage twice more to be sure...)
3) Pig to Human.
4) Presto, airborne...

http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/204/2/200.full

BTW: Pigs are at 10¹¹th viral copies per mL nasal fluid on day 1 post infection.
(100,000,000,000 copies per mL)
 
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