Ebola, at the risk of being labeled an “Agent Provocateur”, or spreader of confusion as a paid government stooge, lets all take a deep calming breath.
First I am not dismissing the >remote< possibility that this could get out of control here in the USA. I consider it to be a 1 in a million chance, but there is still a risk. That minor risk is great enough that we had an "ingathering" (to borrow from both Andre’ Norton and Zena Henderson) of the "clan". As I have mentioned, I have a rather large extended family. And there are quite a few medical professionals. Six of my cousins are “MD”s, only one actually practices medicine and he most definitely was not included. Someday real soon the DEA is gonna fall on him like an asteroid from a vengeful God. He sells script for Oxy, etc.
The other 5 work in research. They, and the other non welfare kings and queens spent Sunday playing “What if”. As the resident “survivalist”, so called because of my fascination with apocalyptic fiction.
When I was 9 I read “Alas Babylon” one June while trapped inside by my “Asthmatic Bronchitis”. That same summer I was given a 1950 set of “Encyclopedia Britannica” that I basically read everything of interest from A to Z. I became fascinated by the fact that ancient Babylonia had cycle after cycle of, “Lets dig some canals”. And those canals allowed reasonably high order civilizations to develop. At the risk of being pedantic, the word “civilization” has a very specific and narrow meaning: A culture advanced enough to support a population base that results in “cities”. Of course different scholars have used different populations necessary for “city”. And time after time after time these civilizations would grow, peak and collapse. With several generations, the civilizations lost the ability to maintain those canals. I have a large wall print of the area from GPR/SAR (ground penetration radar/Synthetic Aperture Radar) and it is criss-crossed with hundreds of major canales and thousands of minor ones. If not for the presence of that marvelous Religion of “Peace”, Islam, I would have almost certainly specialized in ancient Babylonian Studies. During the October festivities otherwise known as the Cuban Missile Crisis, I came very close to getting shot by US Army Soldiers in a near state of panic. While playing “bail out” on the swing set during morning recess at school a large flatbed with a rocket stopped in front of my school (Yates Elementary, New Circle Road). When I got within ~50 feet they suddenly saw me and I had a “gazillion” guys pointing guns at me. While I was in the 6th grade, my former 5th grade teacher, ran up screaming “Don’t shoot, hes only a child” over and over. She snatched me up, while I was somewhat below average in height and weight, she was even smaller and carried/dragged me away. At that moment I realized that “Rocket” was somehow connected with the fact that all the adults around me were deeply frightened. And that it carried an “A-Bomb” that could kill everyone I knew, my family, friends, my pet cat (Pixie), that it would destroy Lexington, I had a vision of a deep crater….So perhaps my childhood has predisposed me to accept that ALL civilizations, large small, great, petty, grow, peak, and fail to meet the challenges they face, and collapse. So I have read, and watched, “every” story, book, movie, etc, about the “end of modern civilization. I joined the US Civil Defense program in the 11th grade, passed the “Shelter Management Course” (Wouldn’t you trust a 16 year old shelter manager during the Great Nuke Out?)
So with me playing devils advocate, a position some herein might find fitting, we “war gammed” various outcomes. The results ranged from nothing to “TEOCAWKI”.
Very bad outcomes are possible.
"It isn’t the odds, it’s the stakes" (risks), is something a retired Marine Gunnery Sergeant brought to the discussion….
So we are laying in supplies.
We invited the two practicing epidemiologists I met back in the summer to attend. The husband had been in the Congo during on outbreak of Ebola and had gruesome photos showing the progression of the disease.
This round of Ebola is clearly different then other recent outbreaks. I added recent because several respected historical epidemiologists believe the “Plague of Athens” was a strain of Ebola, and there is a body of doctors who belief that the “black death” might not have been normal plague, but a form of Ebola. Normally Ebola reproduces rather poorly in primates, including humans. The initial case, Index Case or Patient Zero, depending on cultural preferences, never survives. They always die. By the time the disease has passed through 3 cycles:
Index Case/Patient Zero
Index infects with, cycle 2
Wife infects her sister, cycle 3.
People start surviving at cycle 3, and the disease has historically burned out by cycle 5. Typically Ebola reproduced so poorly that the virus lost the ability to function.
(Various groups use different terms for cycles, some use generations, some use circles, some use steps. I like cycle because it captures the reality fairly well.)
Epidemiologists have been terrified that Ebola would “learn” (adapt) to reproduce more accurately in humans. A similar situated developed in Australia. After some well-meaning fool released rabbits into Australia they became a plague on the landscape. So some bright person introduced a disease that was 100% lethal to rabbits. And initially the disease went through the rabbits like Sherman’s March to the Sea. But all too soon, the disease adapted, became less lethal, more effective at survival. Let’s face it, from a survival viewpoint, if Ebola manages to win and eliminate the human race it has messed up.
Compare and contrast Ebola with the common cold. The “cold” virus (yes I know there are a “bunch” of them) is a master at survival. It is constantly spreading through the global population.
Ebola is a failure in that it kills its host.
Many diseases start out with near 100% lethality, but eventually “learn” to only make the host ill, and able to spread the disease.
“Learn” is a poor word, but the most descriptive I could come up with.
This strain of Ebola is Ebola Zaire. The genome has been mapped by many different groups, and is readily available to researchers. But within the overall “Ebola Zaire” family, there are many strains, with minor genetic differences. Modern Epidemiology has become a lot like CSI. They can use DNA mapping (sequencing) to match strains. And tell if this "case" is related to another. And this strain either has learned a new trick, how to reproduce without falling apart, or it is a previously unknown strain.
There is nothing in the DNA to suggest manipulation by humans, in otherwords: The evil overlords who wish to reduce the population probably had nothing to do with this event.
- - - -
As I write this, ~6:00AM Tuesday, 2014.10.13, “we” have two cases of Ebola that clearly were the result of infection in “western health care facilities”. The first was a nursing assistant in Spain, the second was a nurse in Texas.
The Spanish, as of yesterday afternoon, have been very close mouthed about any details.
US/Texas officials appear to have been more forthcoming with critical details. It appears as though the American nurse “messed” up while removing contaminated protective “gear”.
The male epidemiologist had told me two months ago that it will take the US medical community “a while” to actually understand emotionally that Ebola is different then anything they have experienced. He thought it very likely, to the point of near certainty, that there would be a few mistakes by US health care workers. In Africa, or “Level 4” Biocontainment labs, when you leave the “hot zone”, you are washed down by a strong solution of what is basically chlorine bleach. And the biggest threat would come when health care workers removed their contaminated protective gear.
He and his wife have been “activated”, placed on standby. Sunday he told us the CDC couldn’t find its collective ass with both hands. The people making decisions, making the guidelines are political types, who may have actually been doctors at some point, but they have been ‘captured by the system’ and are more concerned about politics then medicine.
It would be very un PC to simply ban everyone from the “hot zone” (at this point ALL of Africa has to be considered “hot”, there are many unreported cases in most countries over there, the local political types won’t admit it…their economy is already on the rocks…).
And if we adopted logical, practical, measures to deal with all probable incoming folks, at this point that means anyone who has been in any part of Africa within the last ~30 days, we could stop Ebola cold, here in the US.
But he assured us that after a few mistakes, mistakes that will almost certainly cost lives, the US health care system will “get it” emotionally that they have to do certain steps in exactly the same way, each and every time. A few nurses, MDs, etc, contracting Ebola, “in spite” of their protective gear, will force the medical community to set up decontamination rooms like labs. Rooms where you enter in your gear, get sprayed (drenched) in bleach for 60 to 90 seconds, and then remove the gear, perhaps with the help of others.
You don’t spritz them with bleach and call it “good.”
US medical people understand intellectually that Ebola is a killer. They are just starting to get it in their “gut.”
It still a reasonably free world, and we can pretty much freak out over anything we wish to. But Ebola still hasn’t proven to be the “end of the world” apocalypse that many fear. Remember the “media” doesn’t exist to inform you, it exists to sell “ads,” and fear brings on the viewers (readers), which increases ad revenue.
So yea, we had a clan meeting and agreed that it makes sense to be a little more prepared, just in case “they” completely lose control of the situation. But we are all going through life pretty much as though Ebola were only a problem in Africa.
And forget some magic vaccine. They are years away from something that will work and have the ability to mass produce it.
Ebola will be contained only by isolating the infected, tracking their contacts, and isolating them.
Consider that when I was in grade school a classmate’s mother was diagnosed with leprosy. The US Public Health Service, with US Marshals, took her into “custody.” At that point isolation was the only control method.
So if “they” start rounding up contacts, or more likely forcing home incarceration, don’t freak out, "we" have done it before.
If similar steps had been taken when AIDS was initially discovered, it would be a very minor problem. But that would have been so un-PC.....
Sometimes the good of the many requires sacrifices of the few.
Yea I know, who watches the watchers, but the system we have is the system we have. Good or bad.
Somehow if Ebola does get out of control I don't see rioting in the streets....I see people hiding in their homes as long as possible, only comming out to get food.
But I have been wrong.
Life is a roll of the dice every day.
Wiil I slip and break my neck?
Will some 16 year old girl become distracted by her telephone and plough into me?
Terry
First I am not dismissing the >remote< possibility that this could get out of control here in the USA. I consider it to be a 1 in a million chance, but there is still a risk. That minor risk is great enough that we had an "ingathering" (to borrow from both Andre’ Norton and Zena Henderson) of the "clan". As I have mentioned, I have a rather large extended family. And there are quite a few medical professionals. Six of my cousins are “MD”s, only one actually practices medicine and he most definitely was not included. Someday real soon the DEA is gonna fall on him like an asteroid from a vengeful God. He sells script for Oxy, etc.
The other 5 work in research. They, and the other non welfare kings and queens spent Sunday playing “What if”. As the resident “survivalist”, so called because of my fascination with apocalyptic fiction.
When I was 9 I read “Alas Babylon” one June while trapped inside by my “Asthmatic Bronchitis”. That same summer I was given a 1950 set of “Encyclopedia Britannica” that I basically read everything of interest from A to Z. I became fascinated by the fact that ancient Babylonia had cycle after cycle of, “Lets dig some canals”. And those canals allowed reasonably high order civilizations to develop. At the risk of being pedantic, the word “civilization” has a very specific and narrow meaning: A culture advanced enough to support a population base that results in “cities”. Of course different scholars have used different populations necessary for “city”. And time after time after time these civilizations would grow, peak and collapse. With several generations, the civilizations lost the ability to maintain those canals. I have a large wall print of the area from GPR/SAR (ground penetration radar/Synthetic Aperture Radar) and it is criss-crossed with hundreds of major canales and thousands of minor ones. If not for the presence of that marvelous Religion of “Peace”, Islam, I would have almost certainly specialized in ancient Babylonian Studies. During the October festivities otherwise known as the Cuban Missile Crisis, I came very close to getting shot by US Army Soldiers in a near state of panic. While playing “bail out” on the swing set during morning recess at school a large flatbed with a rocket stopped in front of my school (Yates Elementary, New Circle Road). When I got within ~50 feet they suddenly saw me and I had a “gazillion” guys pointing guns at me. While I was in the 6th grade, my former 5th grade teacher, ran up screaming “Don’t shoot, hes only a child” over and over. She snatched me up, while I was somewhat below average in height and weight, she was even smaller and carried/dragged me away. At that moment I realized that “Rocket” was somehow connected with the fact that all the adults around me were deeply frightened. And that it carried an “A-Bomb” that could kill everyone I knew, my family, friends, my pet cat (Pixie), that it would destroy Lexington, I had a vision of a deep crater….So perhaps my childhood has predisposed me to accept that ALL civilizations, large small, great, petty, grow, peak, and fail to meet the challenges they face, and collapse. So I have read, and watched, “every” story, book, movie, etc, about the “end of modern civilization. I joined the US Civil Defense program in the 11th grade, passed the “Shelter Management Course” (Wouldn’t you trust a 16 year old shelter manager during the Great Nuke Out?)
So with me playing devils advocate, a position some herein might find fitting, we “war gammed” various outcomes. The results ranged from nothing to “TEOCAWKI”.
Very bad outcomes are possible.
"It isn’t the odds, it’s the stakes" (risks), is something a retired Marine Gunnery Sergeant brought to the discussion….
So we are laying in supplies.
We invited the two practicing epidemiologists I met back in the summer to attend. The husband had been in the Congo during on outbreak of Ebola and had gruesome photos showing the progression of the disease.
This round of Ebola is clearly different then other recent outbreaks. I added recent because several respected historical epidemiologists believe the “Plague of Athens” was a strain of Ebola, and there is a body of doctors who belief that the “black death” might not have been normal plague, but a form of Ebola. Normally Ebola reproduces rather poorly in primates, including humans. The initial case, Index Case or Patient Zero, depending on cultural preferences, never survives. They always die. By the time the disease has passed through 3 cycles:
Index Case/Patient Zero
Index infects with, cycle 2
Wife infects her sister, cycle 3.
People start surviving at cycle 3, and the disease has historically burned out by cycle 5. Typically Ebola reproduced so poorly that the virus lost the ability to function.
(Various groups use different terms for cycles, some use generations, some use circles, some use steps. I like cycle because it captures the reality fairly well.)
Epidemiologists have been terrified that Ebola would “learn” (adapt) to reproduce more accurately in humans. A similar situated developed in Australia. After some well-meaning fool released rabbits into Australia they became a plague on the landscape. So some bright person introduced a disease that was 100% lethal to rabbits. And initially the disease went through the rabbits like Sherman’s March to the Sea. But all too soon, the disease adapted, became less lethal, more effective at survival. Let’s face it, from a survival viewpoint, if Ebola manages to win and eliminate the human race it has messed up.
Compare and contrast Ebola with the common cold. The “cold” virus (yes I know there are a “bunch” of them) is a master at survival. It is constantly spreading through the global population.
Ebola is a failure in that it kills its host.
Many diseases start out with near 100% lethality, but eventually “learn” to only make the host ill, and able to spread the disease.
“Learn” is a poor word, but the most descriptive I could come up with.
This strain of Ebola is Ebola Zaire. The genome has been mapped by many different groups, and is readily available to researchers. But within the overall “Ebola Zaire” family, there are many strains, with minor genetic differences. Modern Epidemiology has become a lot like CSI. They can use DNA mapping (sequencing) to match strains. And tell if this "case" is related to another. And this strain either has learned a new trick, how to reproduce without falling apart, or it is a previously unknown strain.
There is nothing in the DNA to suggest manipulation by humans, in otherwords: The evil overlords who wish to reduce the population probably had nothing to do with this event.
- - - -
As I write this, ~6:00AM Tuesday, 2014.10.13, “we” have two cases of Ebola that clearly were the result of infection in “western health care facilities”. The first was a nursing assistant in Spain, the second was a nurse in Texas.
The Spanish, as of yesterday afternoon, have been very close mouthed about any details.
US/Texas officials appear to have been more forthcoming with critical details. It appears as though the American nurse “messed” up while removing contaminated protective “gear”.
The male epidemiologist had told me two months ago that it will take the US medical community “a while” to actually understand emotionally that Ebola is different then anything they have experienced. He thought it very likely, to the point of near certainty, that there would be a few mistakes by US health care workers. In Africa, or “Level 4” Biocontainment labs, when you leave the “hot zone”, you are washed down by a strong solution of what is basically chlorine bleach. And the biggest threat would come when health care workers removed their contaminated protective gear.
He and his wife have been “activated”, placed on standby. Sunday he told us the CDC couldn’t find its collective ass with both hands. The people making decisions, making the guidelines are political types, who may have actually been doctors at some point, but they have been ‘captured by the system’ and are more concerned about politics then medicine.
It would be very un PC to simply ban everyone from the “hot zone” (at this point ALL of Africa has to be considered “hot”, there are many unreported cases in most countries over there, the local political types won’t admit it…their economy is already on the rocks…).
And if we adopted logical, practical, measures to deal with all probable incoming folks, at this point that means anyone who has been in any part of Africa within the last ~30 days, we could stop Ebola cold, here in the US.
But he assured us that after a few mistakes, mistakes that will almost certainly cost lives, the US health care system will “get it” emotionally that they have to do certain steps in exactly the same way, each and every time. A few nurses, MDs, etc, contracting Ebola, “in spite” of their protective gear, will force the medical community to set up decontamination rooms like labs. Rooms where you enter in your gear, get sprayed (drenched) in bleach for 60 to 90 seconds, and then remove the gear, perhaps with the help of others.
You don’t spritz them with bleach and call it “good.”
US medical people understand intellectually that Ebola is a killer. They are just starting to get it in their “gut.”
It still a reasonably free world, and we can pretty much freak out over anything we wish to. But Ebola still hasn’t proven to be the “end of the world” apocalypse that many fear. Remember the “media” doesn’t exist to inform you, it exists to sell “ads,” and fear brings on the viewers (readers), which increases ad revenue.
So yea, we had a clan meeting and agreed that it makes sense to be a little more prepared, just in case “they” completely lose control of the situation. But we are all going through life pretty much as though Ebola were only a problem in Africa.
And forget some magic vaccine. They are years away from something that will work and have the ability to mass produce it.
Ebola will be contained only by isolating the infected, tracking their contacts, and isolating them.
Consider that when I was in grade school a classmate’s mother was diagnosed with leprosy. The US Public Health Service, with US Marshals, took her into “custody.” At that point isolation was the only control method.
So if “they” start rounding up contacts, or more likely forcing home incarceration, don’t freak out, "we" have done it before.
If similar steps had been taken when AIDS was initially discovered, it would be a very minor problem. But that would have been so un-PC.....
Sometimes the good of the many requires sacrifices of the few.
Yea I know, who watches the watchers, but the system we have is the system we have. Good or bad.
Somehow if Ebola does get out of control I don't see rioting in the streets....I see people hiding in their homes as long as possible, only comming out to get food.
But I have been wrong.
Life is a roll of the dice every day.
Wiil I slip and break my neck?
Will some 16 year old girl become distracted by her telephone and plough into me?
Terry
