ALERT EAS TEST - TEST MESSAGE SENT, 5:15 pm CDT, 4/20/21

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Dennis a EAS test might be a really smart thing to do. Been shaking the trees for the past hour here and getting some rumblings. Winnie the Xi doesn't like the ROC's 5 day live fire drill kind of rumblings...
A test would be very good.Yes quite good.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Dennis a EAS test might be a really smart thing to do. Been shaking the trees for the past hour here and getting some rumblings. Winnie the Xi doesn't like the ROC's 5 day live fire drill kind of rumblings...
A test would be very good.Yes quite good.

'Indications and warnings' from China
By Bill Gertz - The Washington Times - Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Authorities in Beijing are taking steps that are setting off alarm bells inside the U.S. military and intelligence communities.

What intelligence agencies call “indications and warnings” — signs of potential hostile military or other actions against the United States — are being detected from inside China. Analysts suggest these movements reveal Beijing may be preparing for some type of military or covert action.

One indicator was Twitter video showing authorities putting up signs telling citizens how to take cover in a bomb shelter.

The account @TruthAbtChina on July 25 tweeted video from Beijing and Shanghai showing posters instructing people how to go to underground bunkers if an alarm signals a military attack.

One poster read: “How to quickly enter the wartime civil air defense facility after you hear the alarm.”


Civil defense has been a major focus of Chinese Communist Party leaders since the 1960s, when Beijing feared attack from the Soviet Union.

Also, China’s “Great Underground Wall” — 3,000 miles of tunnels connecting nuclear missiles, warheads and production plants — highlights the CCP’s concern with underground facilities.

Another source in Asia reported that Taiwanese ham radio operators were picking up indicators that China may be preparing to take some type of action against Taiwan’s outer islands, which are closer to the mainland than the main Taiwan island, which sits around 100 miles off the southern coast.

A third indicator comes from a businessman with contacts inside China who says locals there are reporting unusual movements of equipment and shifts in production at some factories away from producing civilian products.

There are also rumors of a major political power struggle in Beijing pitting Chinese President Xi Jinping against political elements behind former Chinese Vice President Zeng Qinghong — an ally of former leader Jiang Zemin and part of the Shanghai political faction.

“The internal messaging has suddenly turned much more bellicose, and crackdowns internally have ratcheted up, significantly,” said the businessman, speaking on background. “It is not clear if their concern is external or internal, but there has been a shift in Chinese-focused rhetoric, and military readiness is suddenly heightened.”

The last time similar indicators were seen was around 2012 when senior party leader Bo Xilai set himself up as a new sort of populist leader in southern China until he was ousted by Mr. Xi.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
What Possible Disruption Is Coming That Requires China To Start Massive Stockpiling Of All Possible Commodities

by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Thursday, 09/10/2020 - 17:44

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Today is like one of those rare occasions when the Broadway understudy for a leading role finds out that the star has the ‘flu (not Covid-19) and so they get to go in front of the audience for once. Yes, Europe, today is your time to shine: “Everything’s coming up Milhouse!”.

Or not. Because the pressure is certainly on.

First, we have the ECB. The market whisper is that they have decided that a global backdrop where the Fed, BOE, RBA and RBNZ, among others, have all flagged that things remain grave, and that far more easing can still be; where a second wave of the virus is clearly evident; and where we are worryingly close to a Hard Brexit, is the right time to sell sunny economic uplands ahead. Or at least that is what the markets will perceive the outcome to be if we indeed see their economic forecasts revised upwards without the right serious tone. They will take that to mean that while everyone else is close to doing more, the ECB isn’t. And the impact, if we haven’t already seen it in buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact manner, will be appropriate.

So over to the always-says-exactly-what-the-market-wants-to-hear ECB President Lagarde to try to explain how they are upbeat, but not so upbeat that anything needs to change in any of the wrong ways – like EUR hitting the roof, for example.

Second, we have the EU trying to deal with Brexit, where the UK is, on its own admittance, steering towards acting like a rogue state and unilaterally breaking international law. There is an emergency meeting today between the two sides and, frankly, it’s unclear if the UK is going to talk or declare “There is a bomb in this briefcase!” One would imagine that part of this might feed into the ECB’s thinking if the meetings overlap(?)

At the same time, the EU is dealing with China. EC executive vice-president Vestager is going to be talking to China’s Liu He, and the South China Morning Post reports the latter will be offering Europe the chance to join it in its proposed new China Network on data security….as opposed to the US Clean Network, being the unspoken part. Once again, we see Europe caught in the middle. Once again, it will probably “try to go its own way”. In the same way Europe doesn’t rely on the US in NATO and on the USD in the Eurodollar markets. The understudy, indeed.

Let’s see how Milhouse does when the spotlight shines.

Meanwhile, here is something to study. China has announced it plans to boost its strategic commodities reserves to assuage anxiety over energy and food security. Starting in 2021, it will make what Bloomberg calls “mammoth” purchases of crude, strategic materials, and farm goods, officials apparently say. This is being done to ensure China can ride out any repeat of this year’s supply disruptions, or a deterioration in trade relations with the US, for example. This is apparently part of the shift to “internal circulation”, or greater self-reliance, which is already being flagged, and which will kick in for the five year plan 2021-25.

Actually, those in the know know that this has already been happening across the board for some time: China has been swallowing up raw materials and strategic goods far in advance of what the economy needs right now. That means the drop in other imports --which are still down y/y overall even including this commodity surge-- is even larger. (And why aren’t FX reserves rising even as the trade surplus soars…? Mmmm.)

Here’s the understudy way to study this: go long commodities! - because obviously China buying in vast quantities for years to come, right? Expect lots of stories like that.

Here’s the star way to think about it: what does it really say if China is stocking up so much? Has there ever been a point during trade tensions where anyone has ever threatened not to sell to China? The issue is always that trade partners don’t ONLY want to sell raw materials and unprocessed commodities to it, but rather to hold more of the technology and value chain themselves. That is as true for Europe as it is for the US.

What possible disruption could be on the horizon that would require China to have a large enough buffer of all conceivable inputs --in remote inland areas to boot-- that it needs to use up its precious USD reserves in a bulk splurge now?

“Geopolitics”, as we say euphemistically?
That hardly suggests the benign, sunny uplands that ECB is going to try to sell today, with its eyes firmly on its own shoes, RBA-style.

It can’t be on *imminent* concerns of the US acting on China’s USD access because all these purchases will presumably still be made in those precious USD, even in vast size,… right? Or is the idea with THAT much buying, a shift to CNY can be accelerated? For commodity sellers, that’s something to consider. So is that this would be a multi-year bull-run – and then a very sharp stop.

Indeed, theoretically China would no longer have to worry about not having enough of X, or Y, or Z; and it could simply stop buying from industry/country X, or Y, or Z for a year or two if prices were too high,….and watch them collapse,…until prices were again amenable, or the asset was for sale, or the relevant government ‘came to its senses’ on foreign policy.

I am not saying this is what China *IS* doing. Yet this is how anyone seeing trade geostrategically, or fearing that others are going to do the same, would think – and act. We have more than enough examples from history from all round the word; and our domestic economies are replete with monopoly and monosophy, and at the firm level we see the same game play out.

Is everything really coming up Milhouse, Milhouse?

But let’s ignore all that and watch Christine Lagarde try to explain why there may be marginally more of the inflation the ECB never generates ahead than the previous set of forecasts predicted, underlining why such forecasting is not worth doing anyway.

 

tech

Veteran Member
Just to rehash for new folks (or if you have made changes to your info) read this...

 

Green Co.

Administrator
_______________
I think there are still bugs in the system that prevents it from working.

The system seems to be working ok, now. System admin put in many hours de-bugging.

Most of the misses are when a notice such as the OP is posted, then 100+ people just remember they have not updated their file in several years. Update your data when it changes!

Now I'll go work on the new ones that came in tonight.
 

Green Co.

Administrator
_______________
from todays inquiries that didn't send a PM:

Infoscout not in system

ginnie6. in the system. You updated in March 2020

156 arty not in system, several posts in this thread with info required

reaganchick not in the system

duffield. not in system
 

reaganchick

Contributing Member
from todays inquiries that didn't send a PM:

Infoscout not in system

ginnie6. in the system. You updated in March 2020

156 arty not in system, several posts in this thread with info required

reaganchick not in the system

duffield. not in system

lol- I didn’t think so. I’ve been a member for years but have never seen how to sign up or how/why it’s used. Can you point me in the right direction? Thanks in advance!
 

Green Co.

Administrator
_______________
Items needed for the EAS alerts:

Name
State of residence
email address: up to 3
Cell phone number: up to 3
Cell phone carrier for each number
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
You contact @Green Co. and provide up to 3 email addresses and 3 cell phone numbers, as well as the state in which you live. He enters you into the EAS database. That’s it.
 
Top