ECON DOW down over 2000 points in last 6 days

hiwall

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
DOW down over 2000 points in the last 6 trading days and down 3.46% over the last 30 days.
NASDAQ down 10.25% over the last 30 days.
The China 300 down 2.89% in last 30 days and down 14.19% in the last year.
Is the end of the bubble approaching?
Any kind of war would cause devastation in the markets and even without war everything is dropping.
If the Federal Reserve raises rates it will cause more severe drops in the markets here.
Look for signs on the street corners that say -"The End is Nigh."
 
hiwall

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Personally I don't think the Fed would ever go up to even 1% interest. And I would think it would take way more than that to knock back this wild inflation. High rates would crush the economy and the markets.
War is the wild card. I don't think we will have a war but I guess it is possible.
I see nothing but doom ahead.
 
jed turtle

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
hiwall said:
Personally I don't think the Fed would ever go up to even 1% interest. And I would think it would take way more than that to knock back this wild inflation. High rates would crush the economy and the markets.
War is the wild card. I don't think we will have a war but I guess it is possible.
I see nothing but doom ahead.
Click to expand...
In The interview of Clif High by Bix Wier the other day, Clif made a very interesting comment:
China is no longer part of globalism as of 3 weeks ago. I suppose it might be related to the Evergrande bankruptcy but perhaps may be more than that. In any event, they have shut down their ports and apparently have taken their factories and turned inwards. So much for the global economy.

dead man walking it looks like...
 
T

Thinwater

Firearms Manufacturer
This is the type of crash that gets real. A sharp one-day drop is nothing compared to a slow slide that never jolts the masses into bailing out and saving themselves until it is to late. Once they start to wake up, they bail out, causing more of a drop causing more to bail out, more faster.

It is the old "Slowly, then all at once. "
 
I

intothatgoodnight

. . .
Doomer Doug said:
Um, we are looking at nuclear exchanges between Russia and the West, as the US embassy packs up to leave Kiev next week. We are looking a global conflict on the scale of World War Two. I'm afraid economics no longer play a factor.
Click to expand...
Or, a backroom deal has been struck in which Russia becomes Ukraine's benefactor/sponsor, quietly making all of their future REAL decisions for them, in the background - and the U.S. (really NATO/deep state) heads for the exits.


intothegoodnight
 
B

bracketquant

Veteran Member
intothatgoodnight said:
Or, a backroom deal has been struck in which Russia becomes Ukraine's benefactor/sponsor, quietly calling all of the real shots in the background - and the U.S. (really NATO/deep state) heads for the exits.


intothegoodnight
Click to expand...

Could one backroom deal be that the building that houses Burisma's records becomes a crater?
 
2

223shootersc

Veteran Member
hiwall said:
DOW down over 2000 points in the last 6 trading days and down 3.46% over the last 30 days.
NASDAQ down 10.25% over the last 30 days.
The China 300 down 2.89% in last 30 days and down 14.19% in the last year.
Is the end of the bubble approaching?
Any kind of war would cause devastation in the markets and even without war everything is dropping.
If the Federal Reserve raises rates it will cause more severe drops in the markets here.
Look for signs on the street corners that say -"The End is Nigh."
Click to expand...


But, bedum said the economy was doing great. How can that be? Must be some of that fake news, DJT was always talking about. (Sarcasm, just in case y'all were thinking I had been body snatched by aliens)
 
Knoxville's Joker

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
jed turtle said:
In The interview of Clif High by Bix Wier the other day, Clif made a very interesting comment:
China is no longer part of globalism as of 3 weeks ago. I suppose it might be related to the Evergrande bankruptcy but perhaps may be more than that. In any event, they have shut down their ports and apparently have taken their factories and turned inwards. So much for the global economy.

dead man walking it looks like...
Click to expand...

EverGrande was an international growth fund investment I believe. When they defaulted a bunch of investors internationally pulled out of China. This pretty much removed all foreign investment from being interested in building up China any more. Most articles regarding it date to mid December of 2021. The port closures due to some supposed hemmoragic fever and rumors of a push to take Taiwan could all be lies or at least the latter being a pipe dream by president Xi. I am still getting goods out of China. So I think there may be more credence to controlling viral outbreaks, but it could be a leveraging mechanism as they focus on building up stockpiles for a global conflaguration. But A LOT of local chinese got burned badly by the EverGreene default. The going dark could more to do with local civil unrest and trying to quell the lay down movement killing worker productivity as the work force wakes up to the fact that capitalism means if they fight for their worker rights, they will earn more and screw the man more.

Evergrande: China property giant misses debt deadline - BBC News
 
S

SackLunch

Dirt roads take me home
So are we headed for doom or did some good companies' stocks just go on sale?

WWWBD? (What Would Warren Buffet Do?)
 
hiwall

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Federal Reserve can easily prevent a catastrophe this year by just pumping even more Dollars into the economy like they have been doing. That works to prop up all the failures, for a time. This would certainly increase the pace of inflation but stave off collapse (this year).

This is an election year. Does anyone really think the Fed will stop all dollar injections and raise interest rates a meaningful amount just in an effort to slow inflation which only hurts working and low income Americans? Or will they inject more money into the system to keep things looking normal at least until after the elections?
 
H

Hi-D

Membership Revoked
hiwall said:
The Federal Reserve can easily prevent a catastrophe this year by just pumping even more Dollars into the economy like they have been doing. That works to prop up all the failures, for a time. This would certainly increase the pace of inflation but stave off collapse (this year).

This is an election year. Does anyone really think the Fed will stop all dollar injections and raise interest rates a meaningful amount just in an effort to slow inflation which only hurts working and low income Americans? Or will they inject more money into the system to keep things looking normal at least until after the elections?
Click to expand...

The fed has been pretty blunt. People are well aware of inflation. The fed is in the process of bringing it down and every jawbone session is quickening the pace. They are tapering and are speeding up that taper. The companies that have good numbers will benefit. Those with no earnings will not. War is a wild card but if that becomes a reality there are still those companies that will profit. Will the market correct? It needs to. Don't it?

It is earning season with big companies releasing their earnings this week.

Kiplinger's Weekly Earnings Calendar | Kiplinger

"AAPL stock has struggled alongside the broader market in 2022, down 7.1% for the year-to-date. But Morgan Stanley analysts Katy Huberty (Overweight, equivalent of Buy) says she sees any additional post-earnings weakness as a buying opportunity.

Apple will likely "post upside to Street forecasts for the December quarter and guide to a relatively in-line March quarter on the back of improving iPhone production into year end and modest services outperformance," she writes in a note. She also expects management to address the status of the supply chain in the earnings call, which "will be important in helping investors understand at what point hardware supply and demand will become more balanced."
 
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hiwall

hiwall

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Apple owes way way over a hundred billion dollars, that is a lot of debt. They are completely dependent on a growing economy where people have a lot of loose dollars to spend for new toys.

The Fed is talking and talking about raising rates but they are still pumping in more new dollars which is the exact opposite. Last week the Fed added 79 billion new dollars, over 11 billion per day. If they were at all interested in dropping inflation they would stopped the money injections months ago when inflation really took off. Talk is cheap and only actions count for anything.
 
H

Hi-D

Membership Revoked
hiwall said:
Apple owes way way over a hundred billion dollars, that is a lot of debt. They are completely dependent on a growing economy where people have a lot of loose dollars to spend for new toys.

The Fed is talking and talking about raising rates but they are still pumping in more new dollars which is the exact opposite. Last week the Fed added 79 billion new dollars, over 11 billion per day. If they were at all interested in dropping inflation they would stopped the money injections months ago when inflation really took off. Talk is cheap and only actions count for anything.
Click to expand...

With most here it seems to be a all or nothing especially on the markets. That is not reality. When you take on debt at sub 3% and make multiples of that every year on that "investment" and have the capital on hand to pay off any debt, you do not worry about a market sell off.

Apple's $3 trillion market cap shows value of share buybacks, dividend (cnbc.com)

"Apple started to pay quarterly dividends and repurchase its shares in March 2012. Since then and through last summer, Apple has spent over $467 billion on buybacks, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, which calls the iPhone maker the “poster child” for share buybacks.

In fact, since August 2018, when Apple first hit a $1 trillion value, its stock is up 252%, compared with a market cap increase of about 200%. The disparity is a direct result of its buyback program, which has reduced the company’s share count from about 19.4 billion at the end of June 2018 to about 16.4 billion now.

Investors are beginning to see Apple as a “flight to safety” or quality trade thanks to the combination of its large cash flow and willingness to return that money to investors."

Oh, I almost forgot. The fed is telling you the reality of what they are going to do. Do not fight the fed. The markets correct to reflect the new reality. Lumber limit down the last three trading days after a long run up.
 
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meezy

meezy

I think I can...
That's because I just started contributing to an investment account again, and bought $50 in crypto to see what'd happen. I'm sorry about that. :p
Seriously, it happens to me every time. Buy a few shares of stock? It tanks. Go to a baseball game? Our team loses. It's astonishing.
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Knoxville's Joker said:
Feds have to raise the rates. This may be timed to push Biden to step down to save face. Only a war would push things back up again...
Click to expand...
I disagree. Traditionally it is a war that brings things back, but we have seen under Trump, cutting regulations can do the same thing.
 
B

bracketquant

Veteran Member
Polkadot (crypto) is down about 40% this week. I guess holders can buy either the top half or bottom half of a bikini, but not both.
 
H

Hi-D

Membership Revoked
bracketquant said:
Polkadot (crypto) is down about 40% this week. I guess holders can buy either the top half or bottom half of a bikini, but not both.
Click to expand...

The fed will not take the life completely out of them. At least for a while. The pros will fleece them first.

Fed releases long-awaited study on a digital dollar but doesn't take a position yet on creating one (cnbc.com)

" One primary difference between the Fed’s dollar and other digital transactions is that current digital money is a liability of commercial banks, whereas the CBDC would be a Fed liability. Among other things, that would mean the Fed wouldn’t pay interest on money stored with it, though because it is riskless some depositors may prefer to keep their money with the central bank."
 
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