20Gauge
TB Fanatic
Agreed to a point, unless you work for the fedsThe 3.5 was fairly predictable. Small change month falling off, massive food driven by mainly Cocoa but also Sugar and Coffee, and bumps in oil and gas all but locked in higher CPI.
The market has been delusional thinking Fed would cut possibly as early as March, oops we mean May, err July, uh August???? The recent market charge higher since November was the combination of AI hype and the thought of more free money.
Maybe ‘higher for longer’ actually means higher for longer. If the market corrects (note corrects not tanks) then the next 2-3 months may be interesting times.
The Fed will likely now be switching to unemployment number watching to determine when they might actually cut. My feelings are the boomer retirements are still propping up the idea that unemployment numbers would be higher if the retirements didn’t suppress (hide?) the true state. Also the government jobs for the last 6+ months have been reported high, then magically corrected down the following months.
My broken crystal ball guess is, lay-offs rise, unemployment jumps, Fed cuts rates and we go from goldilocks to recession countdown.
If the Fed gets it wrong the economy slows and lay-offs lead to more lay-offs.
As one of my favorite college business teachers used to remind us, your job is temporary.
Unless you create a job for yourself and have enough reserves to weather a recession...
Other than that you are a slave for sure...