ECON CPI comes in flaming!

20Gauge

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Squid said:
The 3.5 was fairly predictable. Small change month falling off, massive food driven by mainly Cocoa but also Sugar and Coffee, and bumps in oil and gas all but locked in higher CPI.

The market has been delusional thinking Fed would cut possibly as early as March, oops we mean May, err July, uh August???? The recent market charge higher since November was the combination of AI hype and the thought of more free money.

Maybe ‘higher for longer’ actually means higher for longer. If the market corrects (note corrects not tanks) then the next 2-3 months may be interesting times.

The Fed will likely now be switching to unemployment number watching to determine when they might actually cut. My feelings are the boomer retirements are still propping up the idea that unemployment numbers would be higher if the retirements didn’t suppress (hide?) the true state. Also the government jobs for the last 6+ months have been reported high, then magically corrected down the following months.

My broken crystal ball guess is, lay-offs rise, unemployment jumps, Fed cuts rates and we go from goldilocks to recession countdown.

If the Fed gets it wrong the economy slows and lay-offs lead to more lay-offs.

As one of my favorite college business teachers used to remind us, your job is temporary.
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Agreed to a point, unless you work for the feds
Unless you create a job for yourself and have enough reserves to weather a recession...


Other than that you are a slave for sure...
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

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Jeff Allen said:
I'm curious, does anyone think the market can truly crash?
Isn't the whole point of the mysterious plunge protection team to pump in billions as needed?
I wonder...if we were to experience a true '29 crash, does it get so bad the lights go out and everyone kicks the bucket? Perhaps the PPT serves a vital function to humanity? People are so overextended.....how would the banks even deal with 30+% unemployment with something north of 50% of all debt bankrupting?
I wonder how many on this forum are completely debt free? (I'm not, but could write a check to wipe out whats left of our real estate debt). I suspect whatever the debt number is with members here, its significantly less than the general population....I mean the number of 100,000 pickup trucks is completely nuts! Most are insanely broke...

J
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A market crash, sure, but it will be over an extended period of time... due to the cut outs.... they will work hard to prevent us from cashing out while they are cashing out....

2nd I believe this time around it is going to be a credit crash that kills everything. The banks will go 1st and fast, very fast and that is what we have to worry about....

Waking up Monday morning with no access to credit cards, or bank accounts.... having that extend over a period of time, then they will allow minimal withdrawals, etc....

It is going to be bloody...
 
20Gauge

20Gauge

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tanstaafl said:
Remember when we were all talking about "bank bail ins" after Cypress? Well, now we know for ourselves what that's like because we've basically had a 20-35% "bail in" over the last few years. "They" are just calling it by other labels.
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Agreed, on this very critical point. Further the fed has even said that they expect us to bail in another 50% over the next few years.....
 
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