INTL BREXIT- October 31, 2019 or.....

[Plain Jane]

This Brexit thread is to document and discuss the events and issues which will come up as the UK and PM Boris Johnson in particular face the October 31st deadline. All members, especially our European members are invited to chime in!

He seems to have ticked off a number of entities in the few days that he has been in office, including parts of his base who do not want amnesty for illegal aliens. This article is a summary of where things stand now.


https://www.france24.com/en/20190726-brexit-france-boris-johnson-macron-eu


France reiterates EU rejection of Johnson’s Brexit policy


France on Friday reiterated the EU’s rejection of an aggressive push by Boris Johnson to rewrite the Brexit agreement. But Paris is ready to "work with" the new British prime minister, said a senior French official.

France wants to “get past the stage” of negotiating the Brexit agreement and would like to “calmly” negotiate Britain’s future relationship with the EU, said France’s state minister for European affairs Amelie de Montchalin.

Her comments came a day after French President Emmanuel Macron invited the new UK prime minister to Paris during a phone conversation late Thursday to congratulate Johnson on becoming Britain’s new head of government.

Macron has emerged as one of the EU leaders most willing to see Britain leave soon, without a deal if it chooses, so as not to threaten EU stability and unity.

Separately from Macron's invitation, Johnson is expected to go to France in a month to attend a G7 summit in the oceanside city of Biarritz on August 24-26.

EU rejects Johnson’s ‘unacceptable’ positions

Macron’s invitation came shortly the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned the bloc’s member states that Johnson was trying to divide them by amping up the threat of a damaging "no-deal" divorce.

In an email to member states seen by AFP, Barnier warned that Johnson's "rather combative" demand -- delivered in a House of Commons speech Thursday -- that Brussels "rethink" its opposition to re-opening the current deal was "unacceptable".

"PM Johnson has stated that if an agreement is to be reached it goes by way of eliminating the backstop," Barnier wrote, referring to a clause of the current deal that would keep the Irish border open under all scenarios.

This is of course unacceptable and not within the mandate of the European Council," he wrote. The European Council represents the 28 leaders of EU member states.

Barnier advised EU leaders, "we have to be ready for a situation where he gives priority to the planning for 'no deal', partly to heap pressure on the unity of the EU27."

Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, echoed this message in his first phone call with Johnson since he took over the prime minister’s post.

"President Juncker listened to what Prime Minister Johnson had to say, reiterating the EU's position that the Withdrawal Agreement is the best and only agreement possible -- in line with the European Council guidelines," Juncker's spokeswoman Mina Andreeva said.


EU leaders have given Brussels no mandate to renegotiate the deal, said Juncker.

Johnson’s ‘backstop’ remarks ‘unhelpful’ says Ireland

Johnson’s statements to the House of Commons promising to get “rid” of the Irish border “backstop” sparked a sharp rebuke Friday from the Irish foreign minister.

"The statements of the British prime minister yesterday in the House of Commons were very unhelpful,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told reporters. "He seems to have made a deliberate decision to set Britain on a collision course with the European Union and with Ireland in relation to the Brexit negotiations."


The backstop is a key component of the deal negotiated by former British PM Theresa May which covers the tricky issue of the border between the British territory of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to the south. It guarantees a frictionless border until a solution is negotiated between the UK and the EU.

Johnson vows to get 'rid' of Irish backstop
The EU maintains the backstop is essential for any transition deal and a precondition for talks on a longer-term trade agreement.

Many Brexit supporters dislike the backstop -- which would require Northern Ireland or the United Kingdom as a whole to stay in the EU’s customs union -- as it would make it hard for Britain to negotiate free trade deals with other countries.

EU notes UK parliament’s ‘strong reactions’

Earlier, in a pugnacious parliamentary debut as leader, Johnson had urged the European Union to "rethink" its opposition to re-opening the current deal.

If they do not, we will of course have to leave the EU without an agreement," he declared, vowing to "turbo-charge" preparations ahead of the latest deadline of October 31.

In his letter, Barnier noted the domestic British opposition to Johnson's policy, and appeared to suggest that it might provide an opening for EU capitals to exploit.

"I note also the many strong reactions to the speech in the House of Commons," Barnier wrote.

"In this context we must follow carefully the further political and economic reactions and developments in the UK following this speech."

The exchanges came a day after Johnson purged more than half the ministers in May's team and installed what some have described as the most right-wing British government in decades.

The 55-year-old has assembled a team of social conservatives and Brexit hardliners who argue that leaving the EU after 46 years without an agreement will be less painful than economists warn.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and Reuters)

 

[Plain Jane]

Here is an explanation of the Irish backstop.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-at-the-heart-of-brexit-impasse-idUSKCN1UL265


Factbox: What is the Irish 'backstop' at the heart of Brexit impasse?

DUBLIN (Reuters) - The Irish “backstop”, part of the Withdrawal Agreement that former Prime Minister Theresa May struck in November, is the key sticking point in efforts to agree an orderly British exit from the European Union.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson said this week that to reach a new withdrawal deal, the backstop would have to be struck out.

Under the mechanism, the United Kingdom will remain in a customs union with the EU “unless and until” alternative arrangements are found to avoid a hard border.

Many British lawmakers oppose the prospect of being bound to EU rules and customs duties that would prevent Britain doing its own trade deals and leave it overseen by EU judges.

The following are the key points of the backstop - and the dispute around it:

BACKSTOP AIMS
* The Irish government has described the backstop as an insurance policy to make sure Ireland’s 500-km (300-mile) land border with the British province of Northern Ireland remains open, whatever the outcome of the negotiations on Britain’s departure from the EU.

* Ireland says this is a key national interest as any checks or border infrastructure could undermine Northern Ireland’s 1998 peace deal. Over 3,600 died in the three-decade conflict between unionists who wanted Northern Ireland to remain British and Irish nationalists who want Northern Ireland to join a united Ireland ruled from Dublin. The open border has helped defuse anger among Irish nationalists about British rule.

* Both the European Union and the United Kingdom have said they do not want any physical infrastructure on the Irish border, and both say they would prefer that the backstop never come into force - but they have failed to agree on alternative arrangements.

HOW IT WORKS
* The backstop in its original form required that Northern Ireland be kept very closely aligned to EU customs rules to remove the need for physical infrastructure or related checks on the Irish border after Brexit.

* The version in the Withdrawal Agreement signed by May expanded the backstop to cover the whole of the United Kingdom - at the insistence of Northern Ireland unionists, who want to avoid the possibility of a virtual border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

* Under the current text of the Withdrawal Agreement, the backstop would be invoked at the end of the transition period in 2020, creating a single EU-UK customs territory, including “level playing field” rules, ensuring fair competition in areas such as environment, state aid, and labor standards

The clause is designed as a default mechanism to remain in place “unless and until” it is superseded by alternative arrangements that ensure the same outcome.

WHY BREXITEERS OBJECT
* Brexiteers fear that the backstop would keep Britain dependent on rules set from Brussels over which they would have no say, and would hinder their efforts to strike trade deals with third countries - one of the key benefits they see from leaving the European Union in the first place. Some pro-Brexit politicians have said it would make Britain a “vassal state”.

* May argued for “alternative arrangements” to avoid a hard border without the backstop and pro-Brexit advocates insist that technology can allow virtual checks without physical infrastructure on the border. The EU has rejected proposed alternatives, saying they are untested and need to be worked on during the transition.

Others have suggested a time-limit or a unilateral exit clause from the backstop to avoid the prospect of the United Kingdom being permanently subject to EU rules. But in recent days Johnson has rejected this proposal and said the backstop must be scrapped in its entirety.

‘NO-DEAL’ BREXIT?

* If there were no deal, Ireland would not be able to let the only EU land border with the UK stand open for long. If it failed to check goods coming in from Britain, Ireland itself could find the EU raising questions on whether Irish exports to the rest of the Union should remain free of all checks at their ports.

Reporting by Conor Humphries and Graham Fahy; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Frances Kerry

 

[Plain Jane]

Boris Johnson also faces scepticism from the newly formed Brexit Party.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/20...-brexit-party-mep-trusting-flip-flop-johnson/


We Can’t Believe Boris’: Brexit Party MEP Warns Against Trusting Flip-Flop Johnson

Brexit Party MEP Alexandra Philips has warned that “we can’t believe Boris” on his pledges to deliver Brexit.
Speaking on this week’s BrexBox podcast, Martin Daubney, Brexit Party MEP for the West Midlands, joked that his colleagues should keep count of how many times Prime Minister Johnson pledges to take the UK out of the EU on October 31st, after his predecessor Theresa May stated 108 times that the UK would leave on March 29th.

Ms Philips remarked: “No, we can’t believe Boris because this is the man who first of all reportedly wrote two different versions of his columns to The Telegraph on whether we should Remain or Leave.”

Mr Johnson has u-turned on a number of positions in the past, including having voted for Mrs May’s withdrawal treaty on its third vote in the House of Commons, despite having voted it down twice before on grounds that it would reduce the United Kingdom to a “vassal state” or “colony” of the EU.

“Yes, he keeps having to repeat: ‘we will be out do or die’ — he has to do that, frankly, to keep his own party together and keep the voters on his side,” the Philips added.

Fellow South East MEP Robert Roland agreed, adding that if Johnson presents to the Commons the same deal and a political declaration “with a few tweaks”, then the Brexit Party will hold the Tories to account.

We’re going to call it out and will declare it loud and clear to the British public that this is really a rehash of Theresa May’s deal and he’ll suffer as a consequence,” Mr Roland said.

Show host Martin Daubney revived the possibility of a Nigel Farage-Boris Johnson election pact, saying that if the Tory fails to deliver Brexit and is forced to call a snap election, a political alliance is “where it’s going”.

On Wednesday, the day Mr Johnson was formally confirmed as Prime Minister, Mr Farage told the BBC that while there had not been formal discussions of a political alliance in the event of a snap election with Boris Johnson’s team, “there are lots of MPs sitting in Parliament quite openly chatting and speculating, saying, ‘look, if Boris does decide to go for no deal, we simply have to get together’.”

On Mr Johnson’s reluctance to openly discuss a partnership, he added: “He thus far has said that he would not do a deal of any kind with us and I understand that because if he was to contemplate it, it would lead to resignations from the Conservative Party.”

However, Mr Farage also shared his colleague’s scepticism that the Tory government under Johnson would deliver Brexit, saying: “I don’t believe a single word the Conservative Party tell us… Theresa May told us 108 times we were leaving on March 29th and we didn’t, so just because Boris says we’re leaving on the 31st of October doesn’t mean we’re going to.”

 

[Plain Jane]

This may be the Deep State fighting back.

https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-vote-l...-to-police-by-electoral-commission/a-49750297


Brexit 'Vote Leave' campaign fined and referred to police by Electoral Commission
The UK's Electoral Commission said the Vote Leave Brexit campaign resisted its investigation and refused to cooperate. Some of those involved in Vote Leave have joined Boris Johnson's government.

The British Electoral Commission issued a statement on Thursday to update its report on the investigation into the leading organization behind the campaign to gain voter support for the UK to leave the European Union, including multimillion-pound claims on the side of a bus that turned out to be false.

Vote Leave was fined £61,000 (€68,000 / $76,000) and referred to the police for breaking electoral law after the group "exceeded its legal spending limit of £7 million by almost £500,000," according to the commission.

"Vote Leave also returned an incomplete and inaccurate spending report, with nearly £234,501 reported incorrectly, and invoices missing for £12,849.99 of spending," the commission found.

The commission referred David Halsall, the responsible person for Vote Leave, to the Metropolitan Police in relation to false declarations of campaign spending.

The independent body, set up in 2001
by the British Parliament, said it had "also shared its investigation files with the Metropolitan Police in relation to whether any persons have committed related offences which lie outside the Commission's regulatory remit."

Read more: Boris Johnson to face court on Brexit campaign comments

Bob Posner, the Electoral Commission's chief executive, said that it followed evidence and conducted a thorough investigation into spending and campaigning by Vote Leave and the associated BeLeave group: "We found substantial evidence that the two groups worked to a common plan, did not declare their joint working and did not adhere to the legal spending limits. These are serious breaches of the laws put in place by Parliament to ensure fairness and transparency at elections and referendums. Our findings relate primarily to the organisation which put itself forward as fit to be the designated campaigner for the 'leave' outcome."

"Vote Leave has resisted our investigation from the start, including contesting our right as the statutory regulator to open the investigation. It has refused to cooperate, refused our requests to put forward a representative for interview, and forced us to use our legal powers to compel it to provide evidence," Posner said. "Nevertheless, the evidence we have found is clear and substantial, and can now be seen in our report."

Michael Gove and Boris Johnson at a Vote Leave event in 2016
Michael Gove and Boris Johnson at a Vote Leave event in 2016

The Times reported on Thursday that Matthew Elliot, former CEO of Vote Leave and founder of the TaxPayers' Alliance, would be joining the new finance minister, Sajid Javid, at the Treasury, while Dominic Cummings, former campaign director of Vote Leave, has acted as a special adviser to Boris Johnson, now UK prime minister. He also worked as special adviser to Education Secretary Michael Gove.

The report brought some strong reactions from veteran political editor Robert Peston:


Robert Peston
✔
@Peston
.@BorisJohnson and Dominic Cummings have organised a comprehensive Vote Leave takeover of government. This is the most ruthless reshaping of an administration I have ever witnessed. It is focussed on the sole aim of delivering Brexit by 31 October. And probably fighting...

3,040
2:12 PM - Jul 24, 2019
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The Guardian reported on Wednesday that Cummings would also have a role overseeing the recruitment of special advisers who counsel ministers.

jm/tj (Reuters, AFP)

 

[Dennis Olson]

You should probably add the tag “brexit”. It’ll make finding the thread easier.

 

[Plain Jane]

Thanks, I didn't think of that.

*****************************
OK I just tried to do that and the space for tags didn't come up.

 

[Dennis Olson]

They’re free text. Open the dialog an type “brexit”.

 

[Melodi]

Good idea Dennis - this is THE TOPIC of the day over here and I'm sure there are going to be a lot of articles and commentary on it over the coming few weeks and months - it is great to have a thread to put them in.

Thank you Jane for starting it.

 

[Plain Jane]

This Brexit thread is to document and discuss the events and issues which will come up as the UK and PM Boris Johnson in particular face the October 31st deadline. All members, especially our European members are invited to chime in!

He seems to have ticked off a number of entities in the few days that he has been in office, including parts of his base who do not want amnesty for illegal aliens. This article is a summary of where things stand now.


https://www.france24.com/en/20190726-brexit-france-boris-johnson-macron-eu


France reiterates EU rejection of Johnson’s Brexit policy


France on Friday reiterated the EU’s rejection of an aggressive push by Boris Johnson to rewrite the Brexit agreement. But Paris is ready to "work with" the new British prime minister, said a senior French official.

France wants to “get past the stage” of negotiating the Brexit agreement and would like to “calmly” negotiate Britain’s future relationship with the EU, said France’s state minister for European affairs Amelie de Montchalin.

Her comments came a day after French President Emmanuel Macron invited the new UK prime minister to Paris during a phone conversation late Thursday to congratulate Johnson on becoming Britain’s new head of government.

Macron has emerged as one of the EU leaders most willing to see Britain leave soon, without a deal if it chooses, so as not to threaten EU stability and unity.

Separately from Macron's invitation, Johnson is expected to go to France in a month to attend a G7 summit in the oceanside city of Biarritz on August 24-26.

EU rejects Johnson’s ‘unacceptable’ positions

Macron’s invitation came shortly the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned the bloc’s member states that Johnson was trying to divide them by amping up the threat of a damaging "no-deal" divorce.

In an email to member states seen by AFP, Barnier warned that Johnson's "rather combative" demand -- delivered in a House of Commons speech Thursday -- that Brussels "rethink" its opposition to re-opening the current deal was "unacceptable".

"PM Johnson has stated that if an agreement is to be reached it goes by way of eliminating the backstop," Barnier wrote, referring to a clause of the current deal that would keep the Irish border open under all scenarios.

This is of course unacceptable and not within the mandate of the European Council," he wrote. The European Council represents the 28 leaders of EU member states.

Barnier advised EU leaders, "we have to be ready for a situation where he gives priority to the planning for 'no deal', partly to heap pressure on the unity of the EU27."

Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, echoed this message in his first phone call with Johnson since he took over the prime minister’s post.

"President Juncker listened to what Prime Minister Johnson had to say, reiterating the EU's position that the Withdrawal Agreement is the best and only agreement possible -- in line with the European Council guidelines," Juncker's spokeswoman Mina Andreeva said.


EU leaders have given Brussels no mandate to renegotiate the deal, said Juncker.

Johnson’s ‘backstop’ remarks ‘unhelpful’ says Ireland

Johnson’s statements to the House of Commons promising to get “rid” of the Irish border “backstop” sparked a sharp rebuke Friday from the Irish foreign minister.

"The statements of the British prime minister yesterday in the House of Commons were very unhelpful,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told reporters. "He seems to have made a deliberate decision to set Britain on a collision course with the European Union and with Ireland in relation to the Brexit negotiations."


The backstop is a key component of the deal negotiated by former British PM Theresa May which covers the tricky issue of the border between the British territory of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to the south. It guarantees a frictionless border until a solution is negotiated between the UK and the EU.

Johnson vows to get 'rid' of Irish backstop
The EU maintains the backstop is essential for any transition deal and a precondition for talks on a longer-term trade agreement.

Many Brexit supporters dislike the backstop -- which would require Northern Ireland or the United Kingdom as a whole to stay in the EU’s customs union -- as it would make it hard for Britain to negotiate free trade deals with other countries.

EU notes UK parliament’s ‘strong reactions’

Earlier, in a pugnacious parliamentary debut as leader, Johnson had urged the European Union to "rethink" its opposition to re-opening the current deal.

If they do not, we will of course have to leave the EU without an agreement," he declared, vowing to "turbo-charge" preparations ahead of the latest deadline of October 31.

In his letter, Barnier noted the domestic British opposition to Johnson's policy, and appeared to suggest that it might provide an opening for EU capitals to exploit.

"I note also the many strong reactions to the speech in the House of Commons," Barnier wrote.

"In this context we must follow carefully the further political and economic reactions and developments in the UK following this speech."

The exchanges came a day after Johnson purged more than half the ministers in May's team and installed what some have described as the most right-wing British government in decades.

The 55-year-old has assembled a team of social conservatives and Brexit hardliners who argue that leaving the EU after 46 years without an agreement will be less painful than economists warn.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and Reuters)

They’re free text. Open the dialog an type “brexit”.

I know that am a tech tard, but I don't even see dialog. I go to the first post , yes? And what is free text ?

 

[Dennis Olson]

See “tags for this thread” UNDER the last post.

 

[Melodi]

I am putting this on the BREXIT thread because my brain is saying "that didn't take long," both my German housemate and I have been wondering how many hours/days it would take one of the "dissident" groups in the North to "send a message to BoJo" on how they feel about a "no-deal" BREXIT by planting a bomb or three around the place.

Thankfully this one didn't go off, but it was aimed at the Police so probably from a "Republican" (another version of one of the "new" so-called IRA groups out there)

I guess the mostly 20 year "break" in this sort of thing may be over..*sigh*

Co Armagh bomb attack 'attempt to kill police' - PSNI
Updated / Saturday, 27 Jul 2019 16:37

The attack happened in the Tullygally Road area in Craigavon
Dissident republicans have attempted to kill police officers responding to a report from the public, a senior officer in Northern Ireland said.

Investigators believe a viable explosive device discovered in Craigavon, Co Armagh, represented a failed bid to target members of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) overnight on Friday into Saturday morning.

Chief Superintendent Peter Farrar said detectives were keeping an open mind on whether something had been fired but added that elements of the device were designed to murder officers.

He said: "I cannot condemn strongly enough those behind this cowardly and evil attack of terrorism.

"They offer nothing but heartache to this community and their actions here do not reflect the wishes of the vast majority of the good people living in this area.

"Huge disruption has been caused to the lives of those residents who live nearby, with people being evacuated from their homes in the middle of the night."

At around midnight police received a report of a loud bang in the Tullygally Road area.

A short time later the PSNI was contacted by a Belfast-based newspaper reporting that it had received a call claiming a device had been fired at a police patrol but had missed its target.

Officers and bomb disposal experts from the Army responded and a suspicious object was discovered, and later confirmed as a viable explosive.

Mr Farrar said: "We believe that this attack was set up in such a way as to target local police officers responding to the area following those reports from the public."

Twenty people were evacuated, including a pensioner aged 80.

Renegades who oppose the peace process have killed police officers, soldiers and prison officers in Northern Ireland, and parts of Craigavon have been a hotspot for dissident activity in the past.

Mr Farrar said: "Clearly this was a lethal device designed to murder police officers or indeed any member of the public, whether they be an older person or a child who would have been in the vicinity of this."

He confirmed the police focus is on dissident republicans.





© RTÉ 2019

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2019/0727/1065560-explosive-device-co-armagh/

 

[Melodi]

This was perhaps not a wise choice on BoJo's part, time will tell...
Boris Johnson yet to make a phone call to Irish PM Leo Varadkar
Lack of contact four days after becoming UK PM may further strain Anglo-Irish relations

Lisa O'Carroll

@lisaocarroll
Sat 27 Jul 2019 13.43 BST Last modified on Sat 27 Jul 2019 18.51 BST
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Taoiseach Leo Varadkar at the MacGill summer school in Glenties, Donegal
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said on Friday that a no-deal Brexit would prompt more people in Northern Ireland to consider joining a united Ireland. Photograph: Michael McHugh/PA
Four days after becoming prime minister, Boris Johnson has yet to make a phone call to his Irish counterpart.

Leo Varadkar appears to have been pushed back in the queue with no arrangements yet in place for the conventional call that takes place when new leaders assume office in Ireland and the UK.

Johnson has already spoken to five leaders around the world including Donald Trump on Friday, who later revealed he talked about doing a trade deal “five times” the size of existing arrangements with the UK.


US ambassador: Trump likes Boris Johnson for 'calling it as he sees it'
Read more
Also on Friday, Johnson contacted the Canadian president, Justin Trudeau, to discuss a Brexit transition and in his first two days of office he spoke to Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Claude Juncker.

The lack of contact with the taoiseach will add to the existing strains in Anglo-Irish relations since Johnson assumed power, with new tensions over remarks on the risks to Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom.

Varadkar said on Friday evening that “more and more people in Northern Ireland will come to question the union” if the UK crashed out of the EU, putting the region, which voted to remain, into a new historical chapter with the rest of the island of Ireland.

“People who you might describe as moderate nationalists, or moderate Catholics, who are more or less happy with the status quo, will look towards a united Ireland. And I think increasingly you see liberal Protestants and unionists who will start to ask where they feel more at home,” he said at a summer school in Donegal.

“One of the things that ironically could really undermine the union of the UK is a hard Brexit, both for Northern Ireland and for Scotland, and that is a problem they are going to have to face.”


Leo Varadkar
✔
@LeoVaradkar
Congratulations to @borisjohnson on his election as party leader. Look forward to an early engagement on #Brexit, Northern Ireland and bilateral relations

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His remarks earned a sharp rebuke from the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) MP Ian Paisley Jr who said his intervention was “unhelpful and unnecessarily aggressive”.


Sign up to our Brexit weekly briefing
Read more
DUP Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson said the “hysterical and self-centred” response of the Irish government to the demands of the UK prime minister to have the backstop removed from any exit deal speaks volumes.

“The megaphone reaction demonstrates that the blatant attempts by Leo Varadkar and co to use the Irish border as a means of undermining Britain’s referendum has backfired on them and they know it.

“The Irish government walked the world stage and styled themselves as the victims of British aggression. ‘Poor little Ireland’ may have worked in the past but people are growing tired of the same old tune. The game is up.

“They have overplayed their hand and they need to change course.”

Varadkar also said he would need to meet Johnson to understand his “real red lines” on Brexit, and that Ireland had shown in the past that it could be flexible.

Johnson has already spoken to other leaders in the UK including Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, and Michelle O’Neill, the head of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland.

1:10
Johnson: 'I do not want no-deal Brexit ... but we must get rid of backstop' – video
On Friday Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, described Johnson’s comments on Brexit as “unhelpful” and said he appeared to be putting the UK on a “collision course” with the EU.


He made his remarks after what he described as a “useful” meeting with Julian Smith, the new Northern Ireland secretary, who went to Belfast for a series of meetings aimed at getting the Stormont assembly up and running again.

Downing Street has been approached for comment.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...to-make-a-phone-call-to-irish-pm-leo-varadkar

 

[Ragnarok]

Boris is a notorious flip-flopper...

Much like the southern border wall, I'll believe Brexit when I see it...

 

[Plain Jane]

Got it, Boss!

 

[Plain Jane]

Good idea Dennis - this is THE TOPIC of the day over here and I'm sure there are going to be a lot of articles and commentary on it over the coming few weeks and months - it is great to have a thread to put them in.

Thank you Jane for starting it.

You're Welcome! Actually it was coming to the point where Brexit was going to drive the Europe threads or get lost in them. It was time to separate it out .

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-deal-brexit-preparations-paper-idUSKCN1UM0O9

UK's Javid to ramp up funding for no-deal Brexit preparations: paper

LONDON (Reuters) - New British finance minister Sajid Javid plans to announce spending of around 1 billion pounds to make sure the country is properly prepared for a possible no-deal Brexit in October, a newspaper reported.

Javid told the Sunday Telegraph he would overhaul the British Treasury’s approach to Brexit, starting with “significant extra funding” announcements in the coming days to get Britain fully ready to leave the European Union on Oct. 31, with or without a deal.

The extra spending would include financing a major public information campaign for individuals and businesses.

The Sunday Telegraph also quoted Javid as saying he had plans for 500 new Border Force officers and possible new infrastructure around the country’s ports.

Javid’s predecessor Philip Hammond, who opposed leaving the EU without a transition deal, was accused by Brexit supporters of failing to spend enough money to get Britain ready for a no-deal Brexit, undermining its negotiating position with Brussels.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he wants to rework the Brexit deal that former leader Theresa May struck with the EU but he also says he is prepared to take Britain out of the bloc without one on Oct. 31, if necessary.

Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Daniel Wallis

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nd-fund-will-help-towns-develop-idUSKCN1UM0AY

UK's Johnson says 3.6 billion-pound fund will help towns develop

MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said a 3.6 billion pound ($4.5 billion) fund will help towns to invest in areas such as transport and broadband, part of a push to address frustrations among voters that led to the Brexit vote.

“I recognise that when the British people voted to leave the European Union, they were not just voting against Brussels, they were voting against London too and against all concentrations of power in remote centres,” Johnson said in a speech on Saturday.

Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Mark Potter

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...s-to-block-no-deal-brexit-paper-idUSKCN1UM0N1

Hammond, Labour plot ways to block no-deal Brexit - paper


LONDON (Reuters) - Former Chancellor Philip Hammond, who quit the government last week before Boris Johnson took over as prime minister, has held secret talks with the opposition Labour Party about how to stop a no-deal Brexit, a newspaper said.

Hammond, who has long opposed leaving the European Union without a transition deal to soften the economic shock, met Labour’s top Brexit official, Kier Starmer, shortly after he quit the government, the Observer said.

The newspaper said Hammond and Starmer agreed to work with other senior lawmakers including former Conservative minister Oliver Letwin to thrash out how best to use parliamentary votes to torpedo a no-deal outcome.

“The political direction of travel under Boris Johnson is clear,” Starmer told the newspaper. “And so it is more important than ever that we build a strong cross-party alliance to stop a no-deal Brexit.”

Johnson has said he wants to strike a new Brexit deal with the EU but is prepared to take Britain out of the bloc without one on Oct. 31, if necessary.

He has also said he would not take off the table the possibility of suspending parliament if lawmakers threatened to block a no-deal Brexit.

Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Matthew Lewis

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...wants-post-brexit-uk-trade-deal-within-weeks/

Australia Joins U.S. in Seeking Post-Brexit UK Trade Deal ‘Within Weeks’

SIMON KENT28 Jul 201942
2:33
“Sooner not later” is the mantra for Australia as it seeks to trade with the UK in a post-Brexit world, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying he wants a deal done within weeks of Britain exiting EU trade restrictions.

Morrison told the Australian newspaper he called new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday to congratulate him and “wish him every success for the big challenges he now faces ahead.”

He added, “U.K. and Australia have the best of relationships and I have no doubt that Boris and I will be able to take this to a new level in the post-Brexit era.”

Breitbart TV

The Australian leader’s push for closer trade ties with the UK came within hours of U.S. President Donald Trump revealing his administration is already working on a trans-Atlantic trade deal which he predicts will boost British-American trade by three, four, perhaps even five times.

While Morrison pointed out the U.K. is “technically … not able to negotiate new trade agreements with other countries until they actually terminate their customs union with the EU,” he said Australia is ready to move “as swiftly as we can” to agree a deal after Brexit.

Morrison has already indicated he looks forward to working with Boris Johnson:



Scott Morrison
✔
@ScottMorrisonMP
Congratulations to @BorisJohnson on his election as Leader of the Conservative Party in the UK. I look forward to working with him and catching up at the G7 next month.

2,462
7:34 AM - Jul 23, 2019

As to the future, Morrison believes it starts now.

“We already put in place a trade working group between Australia and the U.K. to explore possibilities,” the prime minister said. “And that will put us in a position where, if the U.K. wanted to get the deal done in a period of months, maybe even weeks, well, we would be willing to move as swiftly as they were able to.”

Australian farmers would be among the biggest winners from such a deal, while the services sector would also stand to gain, the newspaper quoted the Australian leader as saying.



Canberra’s trade minister, Simon Birmingham, said this week Australia could help the UK to get a deal that would guarantee the free flow of agricultural and business products between the UK and Australia.

The UK is Australia’s eighth-largest trading partner and the two-way trade has been valued at £15billion.

Follow Simon Kent on Twitter: or e-mail to: skent@breitbart.com

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.apnews.com/d6b47f8354f3457d847849bae867d534

UK charity warns no-deal Brexit threatens science, research

LONDON (AP) — The head of Britain’s leading charity funding scientific research has written to new Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning about the threat to science if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal.

Wellcome Trust chair Eliza Manningham-Buller wrote that barriers to global collaboration must be minimized in Europe, where Britain’s “closest and most extensive science relationships are.” She said “some damage has already been done, with the loss of researchers and influence” since Brexit was set in motion.

She also urged Johnson to increase state research spending to match that in Germany, and devise a more welcoming immigration policy so Britain can still attract top scientists and their families.

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...l-leader-attacks-no-deal-brexit-idUSKCN1UN0U7

UK PM Johnson heads to Scotland as local leader attacks no-deal Brexit
Kylie MacLellan

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s Boris Johnson will make his first visit to Scotland as prime minister on Monday, his office said, as his Conservative Party’s leader there said she would refuse to support a no-deal Brexit.

Johnson took office on Wednesday with a pledge to deliver Britain’s exit from the European Union by Oct. 31 “no ifs or buts” and the government is ramping up preparations for “no deal” — something some senior politicians have warned could make the break up of the United Kingdom more likely.

Scotland rejected independence by a 55-45% majority in 2014 but then voted to stay in the EU at the 2016 Brexit referendum, fuelling calls for a second independence vote from those who argue it is being taken out of the bloc against its wishes.

On Monday Johnson will visit a military base in Scotland as part of a tour of the United Kingdom to announce extra funding for local communities.

His office said he was also planning a trip to Wales to meet local farmers and to Northern Ireland to discuss ongoing talks to restore its devolved executive.
Our Union is the most successful political and economic union in history. We are a global brand and together we are safer, stronger and more prosperous,” Johnson said in a statement ahead of the visit.

“So as we prepare for our bright future after Brexit, it’s vital we renew the ties that bind our United Kingdom.”

Johnson’s promise to deliver Brexit, with or without a deal, has put him at odds with some in his party who oppose a “no deal” exit - including its Scottish leader Ruth Davidson. His office did not say whether he would meet Davidson on Monday.

When I was debating against the pro-Brexit side in 2016, I don’t remember anybody saying we should crash out of the EU with no arrangements in place to help maintain the vital trade that flows uninterrupted between Britain and the European Union,” Davidson wrote in the Sccottish Mail on Sunday newspaper.

“I don’t think the government should pursue a no-deal Brexit and, if it comes to it, I won’t support it.”

Last week, Scotland’s nationalist leader Nicola Sturgeon wrote to Johnson telling him his Brexit plans would hurt the Scottish economy and that she would continue preparations for a second independence referendum.

Johnson will use the visit to announce 300 million pounds ($371 million) of new funding for so-called “Growth Deals” across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which provide investment for local businesses and projects.

It follows a trip to the north of England over the weekend to set out plans to boost investment in local services in a push to address frustrations among voters that led to the vote to leave the EU.

Reporting by Kylie MacLellan; Editing by Dale Hudson

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/20...al-migrant-amnesty-breaks-10000-govt-respond/

PETITION AGAINST BORIS'S ILLEGAL MIGRANT AMNESTY PLAN BREAKS 10,000, GOVT TO RESPOND



The official petition against Boris Johnson’s proposed amnesty for illegal migrants who have been in the country for some years has broken the 10,000 signature threshold in a few days, meaning the Government will respond to it.
Boris Johnson pushed for an amnesty for illegal migrants who have been in the United Kingdom for 15, sometimes only 12 years in his former roles as both Mayor of London and Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary, and indicated he was still in favour of the scheme during his first parliamentary question and answer session as Prime Minister.


“As London Mayor, the Prime Minister courted popularity with pledging an amnesty for illegal immigrants… Now that he is a position to do something about [this], is he a man of his word?” Labour’s Rupa Huq demanded.

“[F]or the amnesty on illegal immigrants, it is absolutely true that I have raised it several times since I was in Government,” Johnson replied.

“I think that our arrangements, in theoretically being committed to the expulsion of perhaps half a million people who do not have the correct papers, and who may have been living and working here for many, many years without being involved in any criminal activity at all — I think that legal position is anomalous” he continued, leaving the question of how someone could enter the country illegally and live by crime or work in the black economy “without any criminal activity at all” unaddressed.

I do think — I will answer the hon. Lady directly — that we need to look at our arrangements for people who have lived and worked here for a long time, unable to enter the economy and to participate properly or pay taxes, without documents. We should look at it… we should look at the economic advantages and disadvantages of going ahead with the policy that she described, and on which I think she and I share a view.”

While the Prime Minister stressed the importance of the “enter the economy and… pay taxes”, the evidence suggests that the impact of regularising half a million illegal migrants who have been in the country for several years, allowing them to access to welfare and social housing, would far outweigh any revenue generated — an impact which would likely be compounded by chain migration, as the newly legal residents exercised their rights to bring in spouses and family members.

Critics of the policy have also pointed out that the authorities would struggle to ascertain whether illegal migrants coming forward under an amnesty scheme had really been in the country for 12-15 years, and that there could be far more of them than estimated 500,000 currently under discussion in the press.

Migration Watch UK, the United Kingdom’s leading migration-sceptic think tank and pressure group, had therefore prepared a petition against such an amnesty in advance of Johnson’s elevation to the office of Prime Minister, in anticipation of his putting it on the agenda after a decade of rejection under previous Tory leaders.

Amnesties are manna for traffickers, rewarding illegality,” the petition, in the name of Migration Watch chairman Alp Mehmet — himself a legal migrant from Cyprus — begins, adding that “The experience of Italy and Spain suggests that they encourage more illegals.”

This has also been the experience in the United States, according to American migration-sceptic groups like NumbersUSA, which notes that multiple illegal migrant amnesties have tended not to wipe the slate clean, as many amnesty proponents suggest, but instead encouraged more illegal migration, with new illegals believing that they, too, will eventually be regularised if they remain below the radar for long enough.

Should the Mehmet’s petition against the proposed amnesty break 100,000 signatures, it will not only receive a Government response, but will also be considered for a parliamentary debate.

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...-pound-facing-gravity-of-parity-idUSKCN1UC205

FOREIGN EXCHANGE ANALYSIS
JULY 29, 2019 / 10:22 AM / UPDATED 36 MINUTES AGO
One direction: Brexit-hit pound facing gravity of parity
Saikat Chatterjee


LONDON (Reuters) - Currency traders who were wary of positioning outright for a no-deal Brexit outcome seem to be finally be throwing in the towel: heavy selling has hit sterling this month and metrics such as derivatives and positioning suggest no respite ahead.

The question for the markets and public alike is just how far sterling could now weaken.

Just a cursory reading of historical chart troughs shows $1.20 within easy reach; on Monday the pound fell below $1.23 for the first time since March 2017.

But some major banks have talked of the possibility it could breach post-Brexit referendum lows of $1.1491. And then sights get trained on the historic all-time low of $1.0545 from March 1985, just before G7 powers acted to rein in the superdollar of the Reagan era in the so-called “Plaza Accord”.

The broad view that Britain would manage to agree some kind of transition trading agreement before leaving the European Union had until now kept investors more or less on the sidelines, out of concern that a last-minute compromise would send sterling rocketing higher.

What has changed now is that the UK government under new Prime Minister Boris Johnson seems to be actively preparing for a no-deal outcome. Johnson’s pledge to take Britain out of the EU on Oct. 31 come what may, and his tough tone on Brexit talks seem to have galvanised market players into dumping the pound.

Then a growing swathe of dismal economic data has highlighted the Brexit fallout; it seems to have persuaded the Bank of England to turn more dovish and markets are ramping up bets on a rate rise by year-end

GRAPHIC: One direction for sterling - tmsnrt.rs/2yjulkD

All that has sent the pound reeling 6% since early-May. It is wallowing near a 30-month low below $1.23, having traded near $1.34 as recently as April. But its losses are far from over, options and futures imply.

$1.20 IN MY EYES
Options data shows some “strikes” amounting to around $800 million, amassed around $1.23, a level sterling has now breached. Strikes are essentially the price at which an option can be exercised.

After that level, options traders report that some $3 billion in strikes are outstanding around $1.20 from now until end-2019. On July 17, such strikes totalled $1 billion.

However, the market may be underpricing the risk of a no-deal Brexit; options expiring after Oct. 31 are still significantly below levels seen before the original March 29 deadline.

Moreover, option dealers have been buying three-month options expiring before Oct. 31 - a possible sign they are bracing for an early parliamentary election.

Markets do not appear to be prepared for bigger falls - there are not many large option strikes below the $1.20 mark

GRAPHIC: Sterling options data - tmsnrt.rs/2MmMRAP

VOLATILE TIMES
There seems to be growing conviction that sterling is set for a volatile ride from here.

A look at the term structure of implied sterling/dollar volatility shows that three and six-month gauges of expected swings in the pound have jumped far more than one-year segments — clearly investors are taking no chances around the Oct. 31 deadline.

As demand for these options has surged, market-making banks have sharply hiked the cost of three-month-expiry implied volatility options, even though the contract does not yet roll to Oct. 31.

ADVERTISEMENT

Three-month implied volatility, bid at five-year lows around 6 vols in April, has spiked four vols this month to over 10 vols — a 66% price increase.

“Pound volatility is picking up but is very cheap compared to the highs of last December and should keep moving higher,” Nomura strategists told clients.

GRAPHIC: GBP implied vols rise above 10 vols - tmsnrt.rs/2ymfIgA

NOT A VERY BIG SHORT
Often an asset’s price may be supported if investors are already “short” - essentially a bet on prices falling in the near future. Hedge funds indeed hold a substantial short position in sterling futures but the catch is that their cumulative short position is still far from an extreme amount. extreme. Net short in the market is still some way off from the record levels.

As of July 16, sterling short positions amounted to $5.7 billion, having risen for four weeks straight. But last September, the short was as big as $6.5 billion and it hit a record $8.4 billion in March 2017.

UNCHARTED TERRITORY

Nor is there much support in store for sterling from a technical perspective. The currency has breached support around $1.233, and is now eyeing a level around $1.2172. After that, support will kick in only around $1.15 - touched in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum.

Another technical indicator known as the RSI that measures whether currencies are oversold or overbought, also implies the recent drop in the pound is not that extreme. Greater extremes were seen during September 2018 and October 2016.

Against the euro, while the pound has breached the 90-pence psychological level, there is little support given how rarely sterling has traded below those levels in the past.

BNY Mellon strategists note the pound has only traded less than 3 percent of the time below the 90 pence per euro level since the single currency came into existence in January 1999.

“These are uncharted levels for the pound and there is more pain likely in store,” said Neil Mellor, a senior FX strategist at BNY Mellon in London.

GRAPHIC: GBP technicals - tmsnrt.rs/2yjuNPW

Reporting by Saikat Chatterjee; Additional reporting by Richard Pace and Tommy Wilkes; Editing by Sujata Rao and Frances Kerry

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.apnews.com/f47d47a6b5b74e9b96d5a58bed72bcf5

Boris Johnson visits Belfast as Brexit woes hurt UK economy
By JILL LAWLESS
today


LONDON (AP) — New British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday finished his rocky debut tour of the U.K. in Northern Ireland, where he faces a doubly difficult challenge: restoring the collapsed Belfast government and finding a solution for the Irish border after Brexit.

Since he took office a week ago, Johnson has been touring England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, but it has not been a triumphal parade. After facing protests and political opposition in Scotland and Wales, Johnson met Wednesday with the leaders of Northern Ireland’s five main political parties in hopes of kick-starting efforts to restore the suspended Belfast administration.

Northern Ireland’s 1.8 million people have been without a functioning administration for 2 1/2 years, ever since the Catholic-Protestant power-sharing government collapsed over a botched green-energy project. The rift soon widened to broader cultural and political issues separating Northern Ireland’s British unionists and Irish nationalists.

Johnson said he would “do everything I can to help that get up and running again, because I think that’s profoundly in the interests of people here, of all the citizens here in Northern Ireland.”

But a breakthrough did not look imminent. Opponents say Johnson can’t play a constructive role in Northern Ireland because his Conservative government relies on support from the Democratic Unionist Party, the largest of Northern Ireland’s pro-British parties. Without the votes of the DUP’s 10 lawmakers in London, Johnson’s minority government would collapse.

Critics say that gives the pro-Brexit DUP an oversized influence with the British government, unsettling the delicate balance of power in Northern Ireland.

Mary Lou McDonald, leader of the Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein, accused Johnson of being the DUP’s “gofer.”

“He tells us he will act with absolute impartiality. We have told him that nobody believes that,” she said.

Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union has strained the bonds among the four nations that make up the U.K. A majority of voters in England and Wales backed leaving in the referendum, while those in Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain.

Scotland’s nationalist government wants to hold a vote on independence from the U.K. if Scotland is dragged out of the EU against its will. Similarly, nationalists in Northern Ireland argue there should be a referendum on unification with the Irish republic if there is a damaging no-deal Brexit.

Johnson insists the U.K. will leave the EU on the scheduled date of Oct. 31, with or without a divorce deal. Economists say a no-deal Brexit would be economically damaging for the whole U.K. and politically destabilizing for Northern Ireland, the only part of the U.K. to share a land border with the bloc.

DUP leader Arlene Foster downplayed the risk of a no-deal Brexit, saying Johnson was “focused on finding a deal and we’re here to help him find that deal.”

She said Brexit must be carried out “in a way that does no damage either to the U.K., the Republic of Ireland — our neighbors — or the wider European Union.”

A divorce agreement between the U.K. and the EU has foundered largely because of the complex issue of the 300-mile (550 kilometer) border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland. An invisible border is crucial to the regional economy and underpins the peace process that ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.

Both Britain and the EU have promised there will be no hard border after Brexit, but they disagree about how to avoid it.

The EU and Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, came up with a solution known as the backstop — an insurance policy to guarantee an open border if no other solution can be found. But British Brexit-backers loathe the backstop because it locks Britain into EU trade rules to avoid customs checks, something they say will stop the U.K. from striking new trade deals.

Johnson is refusing to hold new talks with EU leaders unless they agree to scrap the backstop and sent Europe adviser David Frost to Brussels on Wednesday to deliver that message.

Johnson’s office said Frost would tell EU officials that “we will work energetically for a deal but the backstop must be abolished. If we are not able to reach an agreement, then we will, of course, have to leave the EU without a deal.”

The bloc is equally adamant that Brexit deal won’t be reopened and the backstop must stay.

The stalemate has sent the pound plunging to its lowest levels in more than two years, as economists warn a no-deal Brexit would disrupt trade and send Britain into a deep recession.

The currency was trading around $1.22 Wednesday, up slightly from a day earlier but still its lowest level since March 2017.

Business confidence has also been battered. Britain’s auto trade body said Wednesday that investment in the industry effectively stopped in the first half of this year amid no-deal fears.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said companies made just 90 million pounds ($110 million) of new investments between January and June, compared with an average annual total of 2.7 billion pounds. Car production dropped 20.1% in the first half of 2019.

“The fear of no deal is causing investors to sit on their hands,” said chief executive Mike Hawes.

On his tour of the U.K., Johnson was booed by protesters in both the Scottish city of Edinburgh and the Welsh city of Cardiff. He was also accused of playing “Russian roulette” with the agriculture industry by Welsh farmers who face high tariffs on their exports to Europe if there is a no-deal Brexit.

A variety of protesters greeted Johnson Wednesday in Northern Ireland, including border residents, steelworkers at a Belfast shipyard threatened with closure and anti-Brexit demonstrators.

After the meetings, Nichola Mallon, deputy leader of the Irish nationalist SDLP party, said Johnson “gave us bluff and bluster around Brexit.”

“We went into this meeting concerned that he would have a limited understanding of the complexities and the fragility of this place and those concerns have been confirmed,” she said.

Danica Kirka in London contributed to this story.

___

Follow AP’s full coverage of Brexit at: https://www.apnews.com/Brexit

 

[Melodi]

I think I may have figured out part of the "BoJo" gameplan, he can say with a straight face that the UK will not "implement" a hard border on the island of Ireland because in a no-deal BREXIT it is highly likely the EU will tell the Irish Republic that THEY have to set up a hard border themselves or be essentially removed from the EU trading block.

I think what Boris may be thinking is that Southern Ireland will want to leave the EU and join in some sort of "UK Free Trade" agreement.

I have news for Boris, the majority of Northern Ireland including Most of the Unionist polled voted to stay in the UK to stay part of the European Union; a large majority of folks in the Irish Republic also want to be part of the European Union.

I am not saying that is a good idea, I have very mixed feelings about the EU and EU membership but if there is going to be even a pretense of Republican Democracy than people will need to have a vote on this and under the Irish Constitution they can (that was in the Northern Ireland Peace agreement too).

While I am not sure a vote taken three months before BREXIT would result in anything like a United Ireland, one takes three to six months after a No-deal BREXIT has at least a reasonable chance of becoming reality.

Almost no-one except some of the hotheads in the Ulster Unionist Party keeping BoJo's party in government want a hard border running through villages, back yards and roads (all needing new fencing, barbed wire and probably military posts after a few months) directly on the Island of Ireland.

This has been the sticking point all along, I think BoJo thinks he has a "trick up his sleeve" but I think the Irish (on both sides of the border)might surprise him.

Either that or he just wants a snap election and knows he can't win without the actual BREXIT party which is polling better than the Tories.

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.apnews.com/9116620845c64e41b231664afabb9c99

Boris Johnson’s government faces test in special election
By JILL LAWLESS
58 minutes ago

LONDON (AP) — New British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was facing his first electoral test on Thursday — a special election that could see the Conservative government’s working majority in Parliament cut to just one vote.

Voters are electing a new lawmaker in a by-election for the seat of Brecon and Radnorshire in Wales after Conservative incumbent Chris Davies was ousted. He was dumped by a petition of local electors after being convicted and fined for expenses fraud.

Davies is running to regain the seat but faces a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrats’ Jane Dodds in a vote overshadowed by Brexit.

In Britain’s 2016 EU membership referendum the Brecon constituency — a hilly, largely rural area about 175 miles (280 kilometers) west of London — voted by 52%-48% to leave the EU, an outcome that exactly matched the national result.

As in the rest of the U.K., voters remain deeply divided over the decision, and over the fact that, three years later, Britain still has not left the EU.

Johnson became prime minister last week, vowing to take Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31, with or without a divorce deal.

The pro-EU Liberal Democrats are hoping to win support from voters opposed to Brexit.

The centrist Lib Dems have just 12 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons but have seen their support surge because of their call for Britain to remain in the EU. In May’s European Parliament election the party took 20% of U.K. votes, trouncing both the Conservatives and the main opposition Labour Party.

Johnson, who visited the area on Tuesday, said “a vote for any party other than Conservatives pushes the Liberal Democrats one step closer to cancelling the referendum result.”

The Conservatives face a challenge for anti-EU voters from the Brexit Party led by longtime Euroskeptic figurehead Nigel Farage.

The Conservatives lack an overall majority in the House of Commons, and rely on an alliance with 10 lawmakers from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party.

If the Conservatives lose the Brecon seat, the governing alliance will have 320 of the 639 voting lawmakers — the bare minimum needed to carry votes.

That will leave the government struggling to pass any legislation and vulnerable to an opposition no-confidence vote that could trigger an early general election.

Johnson has just over 90 days to secure and ratify a new divorce deal with the EU, or get Britain ready to leave the 28-nation bloc without one.

Economists say that would severely disrupt trade and plunge the U.K. into recession.

 

[northern watch]

Bank of England keeps key interest rate on hold at 0.75%

By Pan Pylas, Associated Press
LONDON — August 1, 2019, 7:19 AM ET

Brexit uncertainties are becoming "more entrenched" and increasingly weighing on the British economy less than three months before the country is scheduled to leave the European Union, the Bank of England said Thursday.

The bank's nine monetary policymakers unanimously decided to keep the bank's main interest rate on hold at 0.75%. They said heightened fears about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit were hobbling growth and likely to keep business investment in check over the coming months.

In quarterly projections published alongside the interest rate decision, the bank said economic growth in the second quarter is set to be flat, down from 0.5% in the first three months. That, it said, is partly related to the unwinding of Brexit contingency measures that firms took in the run-up to the original March 29 Brexit deadline, as well as a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit and worries over a trade war between the United States and China.

The bank is now forecasting growth this year and next of 1.3%, down from 1.5% and 1.6% respectively. The bank's forecasts are conditioned on the assumption that Britain will leave the EU with a deal, smoothing its exit.

The pound has fallen sharply in recent days to a 28-month low below $1.21, as new Prime Minister Boris Johnson escalated talk of a no-deal Brexit and put his government on notice that Britain will leave the EU on Halloween, the current Brexit date, come what may.

Most economists think that a no-deal Brexit would plunge the British economy into recession as firms struggle to cope with the subsequent imposition of tariffs on traded goods. The bank has previously warned that a worst-case rupture could see the British economy shrink by 8% in a matter of months after Brexit, though it has since indicated that better preparedness for such an outcome mean that the likely recession would not be as severe.

https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...03842?cid=clicksource_76_null_articleroll_hed

 

[northern watch]

Holger Zschaepitz
þ @Schuldensuehner
4h4 hours ago

Pound sinks as investors fear turmoil. Sterling has long possessed a mystique that transcends its marginal role in global econ, conjuring memories of its dominance in imperial age. But lately Pound has devolved into a sign of Britain's diminishing fortunes

 

[northern watch]

Nigel Farage
‏Verified account @Nigel_Farage
Jul 30

Britain’s best chance of achieving its independence now comes from The Brexit Party.

If the UK does not leave the EU with a clean break Brexit on 31 October, the Conservatives will be annihilated.

 

[northern watch]

Sky News‏Verified account @SkyNews · 4m4 minutes ago

"A no-deal situation is one in which Sterling is likely to be lower... and the economy is likely slow."

The governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney is warning against a no-deal #Brexit.

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...from-brecon-and-radnorshire-voters-byelection


Brecon and Radnorshire: byelection that could cut Tory majority to one

Steven Morris


Greg Collins, a 53-year-old care worker, waved off the bright turquoise open-topped Brexit party bus as it began one of its final grand tours of the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency and declared that Nigel Farage’s candidate would be getting his vote.

“I was a Labour supporter for a long time but they have let us down – Tony Blair lied over the Iraq war,” said Collins. “The Lib Dems helped bring austerity on us so I won’t have anything to do with them.”

And the Tories? Collins, it turns out, was one of 150 or so people who stood in the drizzle outside Brecon Guildhall this week hoping to get a glimpse of the new prime minister when he visited mid-Wales before Thursday’s byelection. But the crowd was left disappointed, with Boris Johnson only making a flying visit to an enterprise park on the fringe of the town rather than meeting and greeting the voters.

“I was keen to see him and if I’d have had the chance I’d have liked to speak to him,” said Collins. “I waited there for nearly two hours and he didn’t turn up. The common man gets stiffed all the time. I’m voting for Mr Farage this time and if he turns out to be a liar, I won’t vote again.”

In truth, the byelection is just about the last thing Johnson needs. It is his first major test as prime minister and if, as is widely expected, the Liberal Democrats win, his working majority in the Commons will be reduced to just one.

The byelection was called after the sitting Conservative MP Chris Davies was embroiled in an expenses scandal that resulted in him being ousted when more than 10% of the registered voters signed a petition to remove him. To the surprise of many Davies was re-selected to fight the byelection for the Tories.

The Brexit party candidate, Des Parkinson, a former police chief superintendent, called the Tory decision to put Davies up again as arrogant. “He’s doing the Tory cause here no good.”

Activists for the Brexit party have flooded in. Diana Coad, a Tory defector from Berkshire, was running the buzzing Brecon campaign office on Wednesday – and making sure those getting on the bus had been to the toilet before departure. “They’re a smashing bunch. They come from all over,” she said.

One absentee is Farage. The Brexit party MEP Nathan Gill explained that the leader was spending time in the US “with his friend Donald Trump” and also planning a much larger campaign.

“We’re in general election mode,” said Gill. “He’s got to make sure we’re fighting fit and ready for the big one.” Gill said he thought there would be a general election on 24 October. “Put a fiver on it.”

Of course, not everyone was impressed by the bright blue bus and the Brexit party bluster.

Les, a sheep farmer, was taking his ease in the sunshine when the vehicle drove through Brecon town centre. “They’re the sort that are here today, gone tomorrow,” he said.

Agriculture has been at the centre of this campaign with warnings of heartache for sheep farmers and even civil unrest if the UK leaves the EU with no deal.

Les voted for remain and will be backing the Lib Dems at the byelection. “Boris is thinking he can get a deal. I very much doubt he can. With him in charge we’re heading for a no deal. That’s a bad job for us. All the work we’ve done will be undone. It will mean a big adjustment.”

Three doors along from the Brexit party office, the Lib Dem campaign HQ was even more lively. The Lib Dems held this seat between 1997 and 2015 and believe they will win it back.

Candy Piercy had just arrived from Buckinghamshire to help the party’s candidate Jane Dodds. A veteran of byelections up and down the country, Piercy said she was shocked the Tories had chosen Davies to stand again. “I wonder if it’s because they want to blame him for losing it,” she said.

Kirsty Williams, the Lib Dem Welsh assembly member for Brecon and Radnorshire, said the campaign was not just about farming and Brexit.

“People want to talk about hundreds of different things,” she said. “Each doorstep conversation can be very different to the one before. Some people are talking about Brexit. We’re a very rural large farming industry. [A] no deal would be catastrophic for our sheep industry. Lamb and beef prices are down already. Farmers are feeling the strain.

“But when they are not talking about Brexit they want to talk about public expenditure, about infrastructure, austerity and hyper-local issues such as is the library going to survive.”

Williams criticised Johnson’s no-show in the town centre – a stark contrast to the efforts of the new Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, who has visited four times.

“Quite clearly this was a very stage-managed visit with extensive care taken to avoid scrutiny,” she said. “In a constituency particularly vulnerable to no-deal Brexit, local people are right to expect the Conservatives to explain why they are pursuing it. The fact they shied away speaks volumes.”

Davies, however, said he did not regret standing. “The support I’ve had from the people of Brecon and Radnorshire has been immense,” he said. “These aren’t just constituents. They are former clients, friends, family. It was they that encouraged me to stand again.”

He insisted he had not meant to commit an offence over his expenses – which concerned the submitting of fake invoices for nine framed landscape photographs, costing £700, to decorate his office in the town of Builth Wells.

“I regret making a mistake, clearly. A mistake was made in my paperwork. This was a legitimate expense. There was no financial gain. It was a pure mistake and I’ve paid a heavy price.”

Asked whether he was sorry for causing his new leaders such a headache, he said: “There are many things the prime minister will have a headache over. I’m sure this byelection is one of them.”

 

[northern watch]

HM Treasury‏Verified account @hmtreasury · 52m52 minutes ago

We’re doubling this year’s Brexit funding with an additional £2.1bn to prepare for No Deal. Funding will:
Accelerate border preparations at the border
Support business readiness
Ensure the supply of critical medicines

 

[Plain Jane]

The polls have closed for the Wales byelection. Updates are here:

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/live-updates-by-election-brecon-16675360


We're here at the count
Polls closed at 10pm, and there’s now activity at the count tables.

It’s far too early to call anything (but that never stops anyone trying).

As it stands, the Lib Dems are here - and if you asked me to guess their thoughts, I’d say they’re still confident, but a lot less so than in the early days of this election process.

Labour meanwhile fear they may be in the losing deposit territory.

Reminder: The deposit in Parliamentary elections is £500, which must be handed in when the candidate submits nomination papers. It is refunded if the candidate gains 5% or more of the valid votes cast.

The count at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election
The count at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election (Image: Ruth Mosalski)
22:13

 

[Plain Jane]

2.02

Chris Davies arrives
Chris Davies arrives - it’s a very muted arrival and he makes his way through the press and gathered people straight to the area by the ballot papers - where there is restricted access.

He gave no interviews or comment.

He’s joined by his wife Liz. While I’m no body language expert, neither of the couple looked happy.

2.03

Still no sign of Jane Dodds
As an announcement is made that there’s a provisional result, the Lib Dem candidate still hasn’t arrived.

I’m told she’s spent the night at home, waiting to arrive

2.11

Jane Dodds arrives
Jane Dodds arrives at the count and stays impressively quiet as she’s asked whether she feels confident.

“We’ll find out soon,” is the only response from her team.

2.23
Lib Dems win Brecon and Radnorshire by-election
The result has been announced and the Lib Dems have won.

Jane Dodds took 13,826 votes compare to 12,401 of Chris Davies.

**********

Not good for Brexit.

 

[Melodi]

They lost - Boris is now being kept in power by one vote ...a "snap" election is looking more and more likely...

Liberal Democrats win Brecon and Radnorshire by-election as Johnson suffers first defeat as PM
The result is a significant blow to the new Tory leader as his working majority in parliament has now fallen to just one.
By David Mercer, news reporter

Friday 2 August 2019 11:15, UK
WALES
Jane Dodds wins the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election for the Liberal Democrats


The Liberal Democrats have won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election - meaning Boris Johnson's working majority in parliament has now fallen to just one.

The result in the mid-Wales constituency is a significant blow to the new Tory leader, his first major defeat as prime minister.


Jane Dodds, the Lib Dems' leader in Wales, won with a majority of 1,425 votes, taking 13,826 (43.5%) to former Tory MP Chris Davies' 12,401 (39%), after a by-election was triggered due to his conviction for submitting false expenses.

https://news.sky.com/story/liberal-...s-johnson-suffers-first-defeat-as-pm-11775356

 

[Plain Jane]

Melodi, Do you have any insight into why the Tories decided to run Davies again? It seems counterintuitive.

 

[Melodi]

Melodi, Do you have any insight into why the Tories decided to run Davies again? It seems counterintuitive.

Honestly, I didn't even know about this obviously stupid choice (or the backstory) until yesterday - my guess is that for some reason the guy had local party "connections" and it was thought to be a "safe seat" meaning the Tories thought they could run "anyone," including someone who got recalled for some rather serious mistakes.

I do know that one of the "Remainer" Tories has said they may quit the party (I suspect if they don't get something they want) if they do, it is almost certainly election time; though Boris may manage to drag that out for a few weeks as it is the August "vacation" season and I am not certain but I think Parliament isn't even in session right now.

 

[intothatgoodnight]

Informative thread - thanks to the contributors for keeping us all up to date.

If should be abundantly clear to TB2K members - the intentions of the globalist cabal are obvious and out front - they have stepped from the shadows, even if only for a short time, so that we can all see them for what they are, as well as grok their international agenda/game-plan.

International threads like this one, and some other such threads on the TB2K board, help illuminate this international deep state and their marxist machinations/intentions - both in Europe, and in the Middle East.


intothegoodnight

 

[Plain Jane]

Remember, it was Westminster swooping in and robbing Scotland's pension system and their health system of North Sea oil royalties to bailout RBS that triggered the Scottish IndieRef in 2014.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...t-as-brexit-warning-signs-build-idUSKCN1US0LE

AUGUST 2, 2019 / 2:10 AM / UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO
RBS to miss profit target as Brexit warning signs build
Iain Withers, Lawrence White

LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) on Friday said deteriorating economic conditions before Brexit were likely to derail next year’s profitability and cost targets after it reported strong first-half results, including a 1.7 billion pound dividend.

The results show how the bank’s outgoing CEO Ross McEwan has put RBS on a surer financial footing, but his successor will now face major challenges, including steering RBS through any Brexit fallout and returning the lender to private hands.

RBS warned that in the first half of the year some of its consumers and businesses were struggling as the chances rise of a disorderly departure from the European Union.

The state-controlled bank said a tough outlook would make it “very unlikely” it would meet its target of achieving a 12% plus return on tangible equity - a measure of profitability.

RBS, which has undergone a major turnaround since a 45 billion pound bailout in the financial crisis a decade ago, said it would struggle to reduce its cost to income ratio to below 50% by 2020, although this remained its medium term goal.

The bank’s shares fell more than 5%, against a 2.8 % drop in the STOXX European banks index .SX7P.

Chairman Howard Davies said the bank faced another period of economic and political uncertainty.

“The subdued outlook for interest rates is affecting all banks, global economic growth prospects are less favorable, trade tensions between China and the U.S. continue to be strained ... and that’s also affecting market confidence.”

RBS announced the 1.7 billion pound ($2.06 billion) windfall for investors after the sale of a stake in Saudi bank Alawwal helped to support a 48% increase in first-half pretax profits to 2.7 billion pounds.

The British government - which still owns 62% of the RBS - will receive 1 billion pounds.

RBS said its overall lending business remained healthy, but it reported an increase in bad loans of 182 million pounds for the first half compared with the previous year.

RBS also said there was a modest increase in default rates among personal banking customers, a decline in property valuations in the retail sector and large companies delaying financing due to Brexit uncertainty.

There are some small signs of strain but at this point nothing we’re particularly concerned about,” CFO Katie Murray said.

The bank also warned of pressure on margins due to intense pricing competition in mortgages, after similar warnings from Barclays (BARC.L), Lloyds (LLOY.L) and CYBG (CYBGC.L).

“This is overall another set of disappointing of results from RBS, which is now facing an extremely demanding operating environment,” analyst Edward Firth at broker KBW said.

CEO SEARCH
RBS gave no update on its search for a new CEO to replace McEwan.

New Zealander McEwan, 62, said in April he planned to retire within the next year, but the hunt to replace him has intensified after National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) said last month that he would become its next CEO.

Davies said the board was making good progress on the search and McEwan’s successor would be appointed by next April.

“I can assure you I’m keeping his feet to the fire,” Davies said.

Excluding a 700 million pound boost from the sale of RBS’s Alawwal stake, RBS pretax profits of 2 billion pounds only narrowly beat forecasts of 1.9 billion pounds, according to a company-compiled average of analyst estimates.

The bank followed up on its first full-year dividend in a decade with an interim dividend of 2 pence per share and a special dividend of 12 pence.

Reporting by Iain Withers and Lawrence White; Editing by Rachel Armstrong and Jane Merriman

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

[Plain Jane]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...party-boris-johnson-october-31-no-deal-brexit

We WON'T leave EU!’ Nigel Farage declares war on Johnson with shock Brexit admission
NIGEL FARAGE has warned he has no faith in Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivering Brexit in October, declaring: “We’re here to stay.”
By JOEY MILLAR

The Brexit Party leader said the new PM would not deliver Brexit by the October 31 deadline “on current form”. He said there was only a 20 or 10 percent chance of Brexit being delivered by the new deadline, with a delay more likely. He issued his warning two days after the Tories lost a crucial by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire, seeing his fragile majority in the House of Commons halved to just one seat.

In an interview with The Times, Mr Farage delivered a scathing critique of the new PM’s brief time in power.

He said: “The reason he’s up in the polls is because Joe Public thinks he’s going to deliver a no deal Brexit.

“The first indications are that actually he’s not going to deliver anything that he said.

On his vow to quit the bloc “no ifs or buts” and a refusal to accept Theresa May’s current EU Withdrawal Agreement, he said: “It’s a means of trying to suppress the Brexit Party vote. I just don’t think it’s sincere.”

And he warned Britain could face a general election - or even two - in months.

Mr Farage told the newspaper: “Do I see a clean Brexit? No. Do I think there’ll be a general election? Yes. Do I think there could be two general elections within six months? Quite probably.

“In terms of Brexit, the really big historic battles are to come.”

Mr Johnson has claimed it will be the EU’s fault if a deal is no agreed.

The Prime Minister has demanded wholesale changes to the deal reached by Theresa May with Brussels, including scrapping the Northern Irish backstop.

Having set out his demands to the EU's members it was now "their call" whether they wanted a deal, he said.

Mr Johnson made the comments during a visit to Wales where he promised help for farmers facing a "tricky" situation if a no-deal Brexit results in tariffs pricing them out of EU markets.

Mr Johnson said the UK was not aiming for a no-deal Brexit but the situation was "very much up to our friends and partners across the Channel".

"They know that three times the House of Commons has thrown out that backstop, there's no way that we can get it through, we have to have that backstop out of the deal, we cannot go on with the Withdrawal Agreement as it currently is," he said.

"If they understand that then I think we are going to be at the races. If they can't compromise, if they really can't do it, then clearly we have to get ready for a no-deal exit."

He said it was "up to the EU, this is their call if they want us to do this" but "unless we are determined to do it they won't take us seriously in the course of the negotiations".