OP-ED A Legacy of Ash: COIN and the Failure of American Foreign Policy

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
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http://havokjournal.com/nation/a-legacy-of-ash/

A Legacy of Ash: COIN and the Failure of American Foreign Policy

December 20, 2015 by Special Guest ~ Leave A Comment
By Joshua Hood
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COIN, an examination: Hidden amidst the media scrutiny following the recent terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino is an interesting aside. In January, David Petraeus, co-author of the Counter Insurgency manual, and disgraced director of the CIA, is going to testify before the special house subcommittee on the 2012 Benghazi attack that killed four Americans.

While our political betters will no doubt use hearing as an opportunity to make political hay, Petraeus is one of the few people who can answer a question he posed in 2003.

The Legend is Born

David Petraeus is an interesting character. He has many admirers, and even more detractors. He goes by many names: the man who saved Iraq, General Betray Us, and my personal favorite, the Perfumed Prince. But where did he come from?

Iraq Burning Fire Flag War Conflict Night 3DIn 2003, Major General David Petraeus deployed with the 101st Airborne Division during the invasion of Iraq. Up until that time he was just another officer, but when he famously asked Rick Atkinson, an embedded reporter from Washington Post, “tell me how this ends,” a legend was born.

This quote, brilliant in its simplicity, would later become the cornerstone of an altar built for the unknown general. It was the first seed planted in the mind of the collective consciousness that Petraeus had a preternatural ability to answer a question that no one had yet to ask.

Peter Bergen of CNN would later say “General Petraeus is the most effective American military commander since Eisenhower,” a fact that he was soon to “prove” by running a “textbook” counter insurgency strategy in Mosul.

He ended his first tour on a high, earning a Bronze Star with Valor device, and a Combat Actions Badge, despite the fact that he never came under direct fire. Newsweek would later laud that, “it is widely accepted that no unit did more to win the hearts and minds in Iraq than the 101st under the leadership of General Petraeus.” His mantra at the time was, “money is ammunition,” an idea he later would repeat over and over.

Six months later, now Lt. General Petraeus was put in charge of the Multi National Security Transition Team. His job was to set up a security force in Iraq, and lay the foundation for nation building.

However, when put to the test, both the illusion he’d created in Mosul, and the 11 billion dollars he spent on the Iraqi security force faded like smoke in the wind when the insurgency in Iraq burst on the scene. Violence slithered into Mosul, which was now being held by a Stryker Brigade roughly one quarter of the size of Petraeus’ force, and in no time the enemy Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, referred to as “political dead enders” began stacking bodies.

By this time Petraeus had been in Iraq for 14 months and was assigned to Ft. Leavenworth where he began crafting what was to become FM 3-24, the manual for Counterinsurgency or COIN.

The document he released in 2006 begins with, “this manual is designed to fill a doctrinal gap… and provides principles and guidelines for counterinsurgency operations. This manual takes a general approach to counterinsurgency operations (Petraeus FM 3-24). These guidelines were quickly dubbed the Petraeus doctrine when he took command of Iraq in 2007.

Look What I Did

At the heart of FM 3-24, we find a magical bait and switch. For those who have taken the time to read the manual, it becomes abundantly clear that at its core, COIN simply offers a new yardstick to measure success.

America was tired of the endless footage of dead and dying soldiers, and quickly lost faith in the White House’s strategy. It was becoming evident that the old days of enemy-centric warfare didn’t fit. Holding ground and calculating body count, meant nothing in this war, and President Bush looked to Petraeus for a new path.

Where his predecessors were rebuffed in their attempts to get additional troops, General Petraeus’ request was granted, and in 2007, 20,000 additional troops were sent to Iraq. But, this was no longer the war Petraeus had seen in 2004. The fragile nation was locked in a civil war between the Shia and the Sunni, and there was no end in sight.

With deployments extended from 12 months to 15, Petraeus threw away the concepts he’d created in FM 3-24, mainly the long-term commitment to the local government he’d help stand up. Instead, he began paying off the Sunnis to fight a war by proxy.

The people in al Anbar were tired of the sectarian violence and had grown weary of the coalition’s empty promises. Local emirs had begun fielding their own militias, in what was later dubbed the “Anbar awakening.” Sensing an opportunity, Petraeus used coalition forces to shore up a weak government and armed over 100,000 Sunni fighters to do his fighting for him. It didn’t matter that the majority of the fighters were known insurgents, all that mattered was the result.

The Beginning of the End

In his 1987 Princeton dissertation, David Petraeus wrote“What policy makers believe to have taken place in any particular case is what matters — more than what actually happened.” Perception is reality. The perception in Washington was that General Petraeus had saved Iraq, and after a Rolling Stone article condemned General McChrystal, President Obama wanted Petraeus to do the same thing in Afghanistan.

In reality, all Petraeus had done was create, arm, and train a massive militia, and got the hell out of dodge before the vacuum created by the coalition’s early withdrawal from Iraq went high order.

COIN never had a chance in Afghanistan. The shifts in ROE, or rules of engagement, and partnership General McChrystal made with Hamid Karzai came to nothing. Not even the vaunted Petraeus could work out the failures embedded in the tribal centric country, but before he got called on the carpet, he was selected as the Director of the CIA.

Petraeus was sworn in as the Director of the CIA, and there was even talk that he had the juice to become the next President of the United States. But then a little thing called ethics got in the way. In 2012, the FBI accused Director Petraeus of having an affair with his biographer Paula Broadwell. To add insult to injury, Petraeus was accused of giving her access to classified information, which he denied.

When the proof came out, Petraeus made a deal and plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge of “mishandling classified information.” His punishment: two years of probation, and he was forced to pay a $100,000 fine. No big deal to a man who is reported to have a net worth of two mil.

So What Now?

In 2008, Andrew Bacevich wrote in the Atlantic Monthly, that “Iraq represents a harbinger of things to come.” It is sad to find that he was right.

The Petraeus doctrine, much like the man himself, is a thing of smoke and mirrors —a parlor trick that dazzles, but has little substance. The doctrines were replaced when not convenient, and the only lesson that was ever put into use was the concept of “cash for cooperation,” which Petraeus reinforced when he pushed Congress to arm Syrian rebels against the Assad regime.

COIN widened the gap between the troops on the ground and the policy makers. Ideas became the primary machines in this new warfare, and money replaced the hearts and minds. Nation building will never work when the heavy lifters don’t believe in the end state, but that is the result of war by proxy.

The security forces set up by Petraeus in 2004 fled before the ISIS onslaught, leaving money, weapons and material behind. In Libya, guns and money provided by the United States were used in the Benghazi attack, and in Syria our arms, training and money fuel a never-ending cycle of violence.

In retrospect the only doctrine that Petraeus really follows is selling himself to the media. His ability to influence military conditions by using his press relations set a dangerous precedent amongst the fellow officers. Some would say that his actions in Iraq weakened the chain of command, and provided a fragmented narrative of omissions and distorted interpretations that have been accepted as fact. FM 3-24 has become the antidote that contained the disease, and it has infected our country’s foreign policy. The current administration, loath to actually finish a war that has been going on since 2001, seems to be content with letting the violence in Syria and Iraq spread to the United States and Europe.

Most likely there will be no answers coming from Petraeus’ testimony before congress. ISIS and other radical jihadists will continue planning and conducting attacks, and any response we have will be another attempt to put lipstick on the pig. Maybe in another ten years someone will be able to answer the question posed so long ago.

“How does this end?”


Joshua Hood is a combat veteran and former member of the 82nd Airborne Division. He is also the author of “Clear by Fire,” a military adventure novel published by Simon and Schuster and available on Amazon.com.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
It ends badly. The way the Big Green Army tries to do counterinsurgency always ends badly, because they always screw it up.

And counterinsurgency has a LOT longer history than that described in the OP - see http://www.history.army.mil/books/Recent/Counterinsurgency/Counterinsurgency-TOC.htm

A short war story to tell you how Big Army screws up counterinsurgency ...

Acquaintance was on a mortar crew in A'stan, in a FOB (forward operating base). The FOB was getting rocketed (RPGs) occasionally from the nearby village. A couple of Taliban would sneak into the otherwise peaceful village and pop off a couple of rockets into the FOB every week or so. The Taliban were armed ... the villagers were not. The Taliban were fighters ... the villagers were not. The Taliban could get MORE fighters if they were opposed ... the villagers were not. And so on.

So the Fobbits warned the village that the rocket attacks better stop, or else. As if the villagers could stop them. Next time a couple of RPGs landed in the FOB, the FOB mortared the village.

So, military geniuses at TB2K - tell me how you think this little exchange played out.

That's how Big Army does counterinsurgency - BY CREATING MORE guerrillas.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
It ends badly. The way the Big Green Army tries to do counterinsurgency always ends badly, because they always screw it up.

And counterinsurgency has a LOT longer history than that described in the OP - see http://www.history.army.mil/books/Recent/Counterinsurgency/Counterinsurgency-TOC.htm

A short war story to tell you how Big Army screws up counterinsurgency ...

Acquaintance was on a mortar crew in A'stan, in a FOB (forward operating base). The FOB was getting rocketed (RPGs) occasionally from the nearby village. A couple of Taliban would sneak into the otherwise peaceful village and pop off a couple of rockets into the FOB every week or so. The Taliban were armed ... the villagers were not. The Taliban were fighters ... the villagers were not. The Taliban could get MORE fighters if they were opposed ... the villagers were not. And so on.

So the Fobbits warned the village that the rocket attacks better stop, or else. As if the villagers could stop them. Next time a couple of RPGs landed in the FOB, the FOB mortared the village.

So, military geniuses at TB2K - tell me how you think this little exchange played out.

That's how Big Army does counterinsurgency - BY CREATING MORE guerrillas.

Yeah. Contrasting that to Col. Hackworth's "out guerrilla the guerrilla" and you see the problems "Big Army" has...Same as the French in Indochina and the Dutch in Indonesia. Just because you're set up for mobile mechanized warfare in Europe against another big army similarly equipped doesn't mean that's how you fight every conflict.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
While having no military background at all, it seems to me we have put the academics in charge and they are treating military missions as lab experiments so they can keep their defense contractor cronies funded.
 

Adino

paradigm shaper
he was just following orders: psd 11

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/258089/directive-11-obamas-secret-islamist-plan-daniel-greenfield


Directive 11: Obama's Secret Islamist Plan
Behind the rise of ISIS and the Middle East’s civil wars is Directive 11.
June 7, 2015
Daniel Greenfield


Behind the rise of ISIS, the Libyan Civil War, the unrest in Egypt, Yemen and across the region may be a single classified document.

That document is Presidential Study Directive 11.

You can download Presidential Study Directive 10 on “Preventing Mass Atrocities” from the White House website, but as of yet no one has been able to properly pry number 11 out of Obama Inc.

Presidential Study Directive 10, in which Obama asked for non-military options for stopping genocide, proved to be a miserable failure. The Atrocities Prevention Board’s only use was as a fig leaf for a policy that had caused the atrocities. And the cause of those atrocities is buried inside Directive 11.

With Obama’s typical use of technicalities to avoid transparency, Directive 11 was used to guide policy in the Middle East without being officially submitted. It is possible that it will never be submitted. And yet the Directive 11 group was described as “just finishing its work” when the Arab Spring began.

That is certainly one way of looking at it.

Directive 11 brought together activists and operatives at multiple agencies to come up with a “tailored” approach for regime change in each country. The goal was to “manage” the political transitions. It tossed aside American national security interests by insisting that Islamist regimes would be equally committed to fighting terrorism and cooperating with Israel. Its greatest gymnastic feat may have been arguing that the best way to achieve political stability in the region was through regime change.

What little we know about the resulting classified 18-page report is that it used euphemisms to call for aiding Islamist takeovers in parts of the Middle East. Four countries were targeted. Of those four, we only know for certain that Egypt and Yemen were on the list. But we do know for certain the outcome.

Egypt fell to the Muslim Brotherhood, which collaborated with Al Qaeda, Hamas and Iran, before being undone by a counterrevolution. Yemen is currently controlled by Iran’s Houthi terrorists and Al Qaeda.

According to a New York Times story, Obama’s Directive 11 agenda appeared to resemble Che or Castro as he “pressed his advisers to study popular uprisings in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia to determine which ones worked and which did not.”

The story also noted that he “is drawn to Indonesia, where he spent several years as a child, which ousted its longtime leader, Suharto, in 1998.”

The coup against Mubarak with its coordination of liberals, Islamists and the military did strongly resemble what happened in Indonesia. The most ominous similarity may be that the Muslim mobs in Indonesia targeted the Chinese, many of whom are Christians, while the Muslim mobs in Egypt targeted Coptic Christians.

Both were talented groups that were disproportionately successful because they lacked the traditional Islamic hostility to education, integrity and achievement. Islamist demagogues had succeeded in associating them with the regime and promoted attacks on them as part of the anti-regime protests.

Chinese stores were looted and thousands of Chinese women were raped by rampaging Muslims. Just as in Egypt, the protesters and their media allies spread the claim that these atrocities committed by Muslim protesters were the work of the regime’s secret police. That remains the official story today.

Suharto’s fall paved the way for the rise of the Prosperous Justice Party, which was founded a few months after his resignation and has become one of the largest parties in the Indonesian parliament. PJP was set up by the Muslim Brotherhood’s local arm in Indonesia.

His successor, Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie, was more explicitly Islamist than Suharto and his Association of Muslim Intellectuals (ICMI) conducted a campaign against Christians, Hindus and Buddhists. It helped purge non-Muslims from government while Islamizing the government and Indonesia’s key institutions.

Habibie had been the Chairman of ICMI and ICMI’s Islamists played a key role in moving Suharto out and moving him in. It was obvious why Obama would have considered the Islamization of Indonesia and the purge of Christians under the guise of democratic political change to be a fine example for Egypt.

While we don’t know the full contents of Directive 11 and unless a new administration decides to open the vaults of the old regime, we may never know. But we do know a good deal about the results.

In its own way, PSD-10 tells us something about PSD-11.

Obama’s insistence that human rights be made a core national security interest paved the way for political and military interventions on behalf of Islamists. Obama had never been interested in human rights; his record of pandering to the world’s worst genocide plotters and perpetrators from Iran to Turkey to Sudan made that clear. When he said “human rights”, Obama really meant “Islamist power”.

That was why Obama refused to intervene when the Muslim Brotherhood conducted real genocide in Sudan, but did interfere in Libya on behalf of the Brotherhood using a phony claim of genocide.

Positioning Samantha Power in the Office of Multilateral Affairs and Human Rights at the National Security Council was part of the process that made over the NSC from national security to servicing a progressive wish list of Islamist terrorist groups that were to be transformed into national governments.

Power, along with Gayle Smith and Dennis Ross, led the Directive 11 project.

Secret proceedings were used to spawn regime change infrastructure. Some of these tools had official names, such as “The Office of The Special Coordinator For Middle East Transitions” which currently reports directly to former ambassador Anne Patterson who told Coptic Christians not to protest against Morsi. After being driven out of the country by angry mobs over her support for the Muslim Brotherhood tyranny, she was promoted to Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.

“The Office” is still focused on “outreach to emergent political, economic and social forces in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya” even though counterrevolutions have pushed out Islamists in Egypt and Tunisia, while Libya is in the middle of a bloody civil war in which an alliance of the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda controls the nation’s capital.

But even as Morsi’s abuses of power were driving outraged Egyptians into the streets, Gayle Smith, one of the three leaders of Directive 11, reached out to the “International Union of Muslim Scholars”, a Muslim Brotherhood group that supported terrorism against American soldiers in Iraq and which was now looking for American support for its Islamist terrorist brigades in the Syrian Civil War.

The men and women responsible for Directive 11 were making it clear that they had learned nothing.

Directive 11 ended up giving us the Islamic State through its Arab Spring. PSD-11’s twisted claim that regional stability could only be achieved through Islamist regime change tore apart the region and turned it into a playground for terrorists. ISIS is simply the biggest and toughest of the terror groups that were able to thrive in the environment of violent civil wars created by Obama’s Directive 11.

During the Arab Spring protests, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit had told Hillary Clinton that his government could not hand over power to the Muslim Brotherhood. “My daughter gets to go out at night. And, God damn it, I’m not going to turn this country over to people who will turn back the clock on her rights.”

But that was exactly what Hillary Clinton and Obama were after. And they got it. Countless women were raped in Egypt. Beyond Egypt, Hillary and Obama’s policy saw Yazidi women actually sold into slavery.

Directive 11 codified the left’s dirty alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood into our foreign policy. Its support for Islamist takeovers paved the way for riots and civil wars culminating in the violence that birthed ISIS and covered the region in blood.

And it remains secret to this day.
 
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