Spirit Of Truth
Deceased
Looks like Georgia might be back on the international hot burner soon.
Last August, Russia invaded Georgia according to astrology, i.e., Moscow timed its invasion to a total solar eclipse over Russia:
http://www.spiritoftruth.org/astrology.htm
This time around, I'm not aware of any astrological events of significance in the near-future, but Easter for the Russian Orthodox Church is about to occur and this is of significance to Kremlin thinking as I've been warning:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2009/02/state-of-union.html
(Although there is a Uranus-Mars conjunction: http://www.monthly-horoscope.com/196/april-2009-monthly-horoscope-mars-uranus-conjunction/ )
------------------------
Russian Forces Deploying for Possible Action in Georgia
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11160&Itemid=132
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pavel Felgenhauer
Last week Georgian opposition parties prepared to mount street protests to force President Mikhail Saakashvili to resign, while Russian forces began military exercises in the Caucasus that might be a direct preparation for an intervention in Georgia -in response to the country being further destabilized. Massive rallies by opposition supporters have not forced Saakashvili to yield and tension is mounting in Tbilisi (EDM, April 14). The possibility that radical elements on either side of the political divide in Georgia might provoke violence is high, while Russia seems to be ready to intervene to defend a brotherly Christian Orthodox Georgian nation from the Saakashvili regime, which it considers as an ultimate enemy. After the war with Georgia last August, President Dmitry Medvedev declared in an interview with Italian RAI TV, "For us president Saakashvili does not exist, he is a political corpse" (www.kremlin.ru, September 2, 2008). While in a recent BBC interview, Medvedev reiterated: "We love and value the Georgian people. I do not want to have any relations with president Saakashvili and will not communicate with him. But if as the result of democratic processes power in Georgia changes, we are ready for discussions" (www.kremlin.ru, March 29).
It is inappropriate for a leader of a small neighboring nation, who has been officially pronounced by Moscow as a "political corpse," to remain in power. As the Georgian opposition was gathering force, the Russian military were already on the move. The Russian Black Sea Fleet left Sevastopol, Crimea in force, lead by its flagship missile cruiser "Moskva." The Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze accused Russia of "continuing aggressive policies" by deploying warships and reinforcing its troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Vashadze expressed the hope that Russia "will not dare a new aggression against Georgia, since this will put it against the entire civilized world" (Novosti-Gruzia, April 11). Russian military officials said that the deployment of troops and warships was part of routine military exercises, while the Georgian reaction was described as "hysterical and provocative" (RIA-Novosti, April 11, 13).
It is important that the Russian military acknowledges its mobilization and forward deployment of troops and ships. At present, it is impossible to know precisely how many additional army units have been moved within striking distance of Georgian territory. However, the composition of the naval force that disembarked from Sevastopol is not secret, since the Ukrainian authorities must be informed. It seems to be larger than the force that was deployed against Georgia last August. Four large amphibious landing craft left Sevastopol last week, while in August 2008 only two were reportedly deployed to insert a regiment of marines into Abkhazia in the small port of Ochamchira, close to the border with Georgia (Vlast, August 18). The marines were later deployed in the invasion of Western Georgia.
Before the war in August, the Georgian navy was small, armed only with old ships and not ready for serious action. First Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia (now Georgia's ambassador in Washington) told EDM last November that all seaworthy Georgian navy ships were moved at the start of the war from their main base in Poti, and relocated south to Batumi. The Russian navy announced it sunk a Georgian "missile ship" during a naval encounter after it attempted to attack the Black Sea flotilla (Interfax, August 10).
Kutelia says the Georgian Defense Ministry denies knowledge of such an encounter. Georgia did have two small guided missile ships: an old Soviet vessel "Tbilisi" and an even older French-build ship "Dioskuria." Both were left stranded in Poti and sunk in port by the occupying Russian army. Recently the wreckage of these ships has been auctioned off for $61,000 for salvage as scrap metal to clear the Poti harbor (Interfax, April 3). In the view of the Georgian Ministry of Defense, the naval encounter reported by the Russian navy last August was either a propaganda ploy, or simply a delusion.
After the war, Georgia disbanded its navy, handing over its surviving ships to the local coast guard. The Russian naval flotilla lead by "Moskva" will not find any opposition at sea, but the deployment of a large amphibious force formed of thousands of marines armed with heavy weapons on board is a threatening sight. The low capacity narrow roads leading from Russia into Georgia (one into Abkhazia and another leading into South Ossetia) create immense logistical problems in rapidly deploying large military contingents into Georgia if Moscow opts for a "humanitarian intervention" to bring about "regime change." The insertion of a sizable marine force with heavy weapons was used last August to bypass the clogged up overland routes and this could prove important again. The Russian military knew beforehand the exact timing of its pre-arranged invasion and fully controlled the pre-war armed provocations by the South Ossetian forces, whereas in the present crisis the situation is much more volatile.
Saakashvili and his ministers have been expressing confidence that the present Russian military deployments are a game of bluff, and that Moscow will not risk an attack that hinders the "resetting" of its relations with Washington (Novosti-Gruzia, April 2). But from Moscow's perspective only a tacit acceptance by the United States of Russia's dominance of the South Caucasus and control of energy transit routes from the Caspian and Central Asia is a prerequisite of any "reset." Washington's acceptance of Russia's dominance over these regions might be the unspoken precondition for a genuine improvement in bilateral relations.
-----------------------
Words flare between Georgia and Russia
Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:38pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE53F5E120090416?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
By Matt Robinson and Margarita Antidze
TBILISI (Reuters) - Georgia and Russia accused each other on Thursday of building up troops and armour at the de facto borders between their forces, and preparing "provocations."
Each side said the other was looking to take advantage of heightened political tensions in Georgia, where the opposition has been protesting in the streets for a week demanding the resignation of President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Russia sent troops into South Ossetia to crush a Georgian assault on the separatist region in August last year, and then officially recognised it and another rebel region of Georgia, Abkhazia, as independent states.
A European Union mission monitoring the cease-fire said it had registered Russian reinforcements at the boundaries between Georgian-controlled territory and South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but had not monitored any significant Georgian build-up.
EU spokesman Stephen Bird said the "significant" Russian reinforcements at the boundary of Abkhazia appeared to have moved back on Thursday.
Asked if they had seen a similar pullback in South Ossetia, Bird said: "Not as far as we have noticed yet."
A confidential assessment compiled by EU diplomats in Georgia and seen by Reuters said the Russian reinforcements included tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and "Grad" multiple-rocket launchers.
"Thus the situation at the ABL (administrative boundary line) remains in flux and volatile as Russian/South Ossetian forces continue to establish new facts on the ground," said the the assessment, dated April 13.
Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said the Russian military had brought in extra forces, "but they never withdrew the old forces."
"We are concerned about this," he said. Utiashvili said Georgia believed an extra 5,000 Russian forces had entered both regions before the protests.
Russia said it had taken "precautionary measures" to ensure security in South Ossetia and Abkhazia during the tense period, adding it had concrete information about likely provocations.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said Russian forces were conducting exercises in order to dissuade Tbilisi from any military action, which he suggested would be used to distract attention from opposition protests.
"We have repeatedly come up against the practice, which has now become customary for official Tbilisi, to search for a way out of internal problems by using external aggression," he said.
"The real danger for the stability of the region is the continued remilitarisation of Georgia including the concentration of special forces and military equipment close to the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia."
The Georgian Interior Ministry said it had arrested an activist of the Russian pro-Kremlin youth movement "Nashi" who had crossed into Georgian territory from South Ossetia, and accused him of trying to provoke a confrontation.
The ministry said other "Nashi" activist were still in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, having travelled from Moscow.
-------------------------
Georgia doubts Russian military action on exercises
Thu Apr 16, 2009 7:29pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc07/idUKTRE53F5Q420090416?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
By Patrick Worsnip
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Georgia's foreign minister said on Thursday he doubted Russia would resort to military action in response to planned NATO exercises in Georgia that Moscow has described as a provocation.
In an interview with Reuters, Grigol Vashadze dismissed Russian objections to next month's exercises, saying no country could dictate to Georgia over its "sovereign right" to stage them.
Russia demanded on Thursday that NATO call off the exercises, which it said could undermine its efforts to rebuild ties with the Western alliance. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the war games would not help efforts to restore stability in the restive Caucasus region, Interfax news agency reported.
Ex-Soviet Georgia has become a focus of tension between the West and Russia, which sees it as part of its sphere of influence. NATO's offer of eventual membership for Georgia has angered Moscow, which sent troops into Georgia last August.
Vashadze said that event meant fresh Russian action was "not something unimaginable," but added, "At this stage I would say that Russia would be afraid to undertake a new military aggression against Georgia because it would be entering in confrontation with the rest of the civilized world."
Georgia and Russia accused each other on Thursday, however, of building up troops and armor at the de facto borders between their forces, and preparing "provocations.
Russia says its invasion of Georgia last August was to repel an attempt by Tbilisi to restore Georgian control over the pro-Moscow breakaway province of South Ossetia.
Vashadze said NATO exercises in Georgia were the "sovereign right of Georgia and NATO and no other country, no third party shall have judgment or influence over that matter.
"It's not Mr. Lavrov's discretion or competence to dictate to us what kind of exercises we shall have in Georgia."
The instability in the Caucasus had been caused not by Georgia but by the actions of Russia and its predecessor the Soviet Union, the Georgian minister said.
Earlier, Russian envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin described the exercises as "absurd and a provocation," telling Reuters he had asked the alliance secretary-general to delay or cancel them.
NATO says the exercises, to be held 12 miles east of Tbilisi from May 6 to June 1, will involve 1,300 troops from 19 countries. It says they are benign, and will be based on a fictitious U.N.-mandated, NATO-led crisis response operation.
Vashadze was visiting the United Nations to talk to Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the future of U.N. observers in another Georgian breakaway region, Abkhazia, which has been in doubt since the South Ossetia conflict. Their current Security Council mandate expires in mid-June.
Turning to internal troubles in Georgia, where a week-old street campaign by opposition demonstrators has sought to force the resignation of President Mikheil Saakashvili, Vashadze said he believed the dispute would end through talks.
He said a drop in the number of protesters from 25,000 to 1,500 would "bring them, eventually, to a negotiating table, and we will do our best to include them into the political process."
The 41-year-old president has rejected opposition calls to quit over his record on democracy and last year's disastrous war with Russia.
Last August, Russia invaded Georgia according to astrology, i.e., Moscow timed its invasion to a total solar eclipse over Russia:
http://www.spiritoftruth.org/astrology.htm
This time around, I'm not aware of any astrological events of significance in the near-future, but Easter for the Russian Orthodox Church is about to occur and this is of significance to Kremlin thinking as I've been warning:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2009/02/state-of-union.html
(Although there is a Uranus-Mars conjunction: http://www.monthly-horoscope.com/196/april-2009-monthly-horoscope-mars-uranus-conjunction/ )
------------------------
Russian Forces Deploying for Possible Action in Georgia
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11160&Itemid=132
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pavel Felgenhauer
Last week Georgian opposition parties prepared to mount street protests to force President Mikhail Saakashvili to resign, while Russian forces began military exercises in the Caucasus that might be a direct preparation for an intervention in Georgia -in response to the country being further destabilized. Massive rallies by opposition supporters have not forced Saakashvili to yield and tension is mounting in Tbilisi (EDM, April 14). The possibility that radical elements on either side of the political divide in Georgia might provoke violence is high, while Russia seems to be ready to intervene to defend a brotherly Christian Orthodox Georgian nation from the Saakashvili regime, which it considers as an ultimate enemy. After the war with Georgia last August, President Dmitry Medvedev declared in an interview with Italian RAI TV, "For us president Saakashvili does not exist, he is a political corpse" (www.kremlin.ru, September 2, 2008). While in a recent BBC interview, Medvedev reiterated: "We love and value the Georgian people. I do not want to have any relations with president Saakashvili and will not communicate with him. But if as the result of democratic processes power in Georgia changes, we are ready for discussions" (www.kremlin.ru, March 29).
It is inappropriate for a leader of a small neighboring nation, who has been officially pronounced by Moscow as a "political corpse," to remain in power. As the Georgian opposition was gathering force, the Russian military were already on the move. The Russian Black Sea Fleet left Sevastopol, Crimea in force, lead by its flagship missile cruiser "Moskva." The Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze accused Russia of "continuing aggressive policies" by deploying warships and reinforcing its troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Vashadze expressed the hope that Russia "will not dare a new aggression against Georgia, since this will put it against the entire civilized world" (Novosti-Gruzia, April 11). Russian military officials said that the deployment of troops and warships was part of routine military exercises, while the Georgian reaction was described as "hysterical and provocative" (RIA-Novosti, April 11, 13).
It is important that the Russian military acknowledges its mobilization and forward deployment of troops and ships. At present, it is impossible to know precisely how many additional army units have been moved within striking distance of Georgian territory. However, the composition of the naval force that disembarked from Sevastopol is not secret, since the Ukrainian authorities must be informed. It seems to be larger than the force that was deployed against Georgia last August. Four large amphibious landing craft left Sevastopol last week, while in August 2008 only two were reportedly deployed to insert a regiment of marines into Abkhazia in the small port of Ochamchira, close to the border with Georgia (Vlast, August 18). The marines were later deployed in the invasion of Western Georgia.
Before the war in August, the Georgian navy was small, armed only with old ships and not ready for serious action. First Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia (now Georgia's ambassador in Washington) told EDM last November that all seaworthy Georgian navy ships were moved at the start of the war from their main base in Poti, and relocated south to Batumi. The Russian navy announced it sunk a Georgian "missile ship" during a naval encounter after it attempted to attack the Black Sea flotilla (Interfax, August 10).
Kutelia says the Georgian Defense Ministry denies knowledge of such an encounter. Georgia did have two small guided missile ships: an old Soviet vessel "Tbilisi" and an even older French-build ship "Dioskuria." Both were left stranded in Poti and sunk in port by the occupying Russian army. Recently the wreckage of these ships has been auctioned off for $61,000 for salvage as scrap metal to clear the Poti harbor (Interfax, April 3). In the view of the Georgian Ministry of Defense, the naval encounter reported by the Russian navy last August was either a propaganda ploy, or simply a delusion.
After the war, Georgia disbanded its navy, handing over its surviving ships to the local coast guard. The Russian naval flotilla lead by "Moskva" will not find any opposition at sea, but the deployment of a large amphibious force formed of thousands of marines armed with heavy weapons on board is a threatening sight. The low capacity narrow roads leading from Russia into Georgia (one into Abkhazia and another leading into South Ossetia) create immense logistical problems in rapidly deploying large military contingents into Georgia if Moscow opts for a "humanitarian intervention" to bring about "regime change." The insertion of a sizable marine force with heavy weapons was used last August to bypass the clogged up overland routes and this could prove important again. The Russian military knew beforehand the exact timing of its pre-arranged invasion and fully controlled the pre-war armed provocations by the South Ossetian forces, whereas in the present crisis the situation is much more volatile.
Saakashvili and his ministers have been expressing confidence that the present Russian military deployments are a game of bluff, and that Moscow will not risk an attack that hinders the "resetting" of its relations with Washington (Novosti-Gruzia, April 2). But from Moscow's perspective only a tacit acceptance by the United States of Russia's dominance of the South Caucasus and control of energy transit routes from the Caspian and Central Asia is a prerequisite of any "reset." Washington's acceptance of Russia's dominance over these regions might be the unspoken precondition for a genuine improvement in bilateral relations.
-----------------------
Words flare between Georgia and Russia
Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:38pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE53F5E120090416?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
By Matt Robinson and Margarita Antidze
TBILISI (Reuters) - Georgia and Russia accused each other on Thursday of building up troops and armour at the de facto borders between their forces, and preparing "provocations."
Each side said the other was looking to take advantage of heightened political tensions in Georgia, where the opposition has been protesting in the streets for a week demanding the resignation of President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Russia sent troops into South Ossetia to crush a Georgian assault on the separatist region in August last year, and then officially recognised it and another rebel region of Georgia, Abkhazia, as independent states.
A European Union mission monitoring the cease-fire said it had registered Russian reinforcements at the boundaries between Georgian-controlled territory and South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but had not monitored any significant Georgian build-up.
EU spokesman Stephen Bird said the "significant" Russian reinforcements at the boundary of Abkhazia appeared to have moved back on Thursday.
Asked if they had seen a similar pullback in South Ossetia, Bird said: "Not as far as we have noticed yet."
A confidential assessment compiled by EU diplomats in Georgia and seen by Reuters said the Russian reinforcements included tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and "Grad" multiple-rocket launchers.
"Thus the situation at the ABL (administrative boundary line) remains in flux and volatile as Russian/South Ossetian forces continue to establish new facts on the ground," said the the assessment, dated April 13.
Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said the Russian military had brought in extra forces, "but they never withdrew the old forces."
"We are concerned about this," he said. Utiashvili said Georgia believed an extra 5,000 Russian forces had entered both regions before the protests.
Russia said it had taken "precautionary measures" to ensure security in South Ossetia and Abkhazia during the tense period, adding it had concrete information about likely provocations.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said Russian forces were conducting exercises in order to dissuade Tbilisi from any military action, which he suggested would be used to distract attention from opposition protests.
"We have repeatedly come up against the practice, which has now become customary for official Tbilisi, to search for a way out of internal problems by using external aggression," he said.
"The real danger for the stability of the region is the continued remilitarisation of Georgia including the concentration of special forces and military equipment close to the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia."
The Georgian Interior Ministry said it had arrested an activist of the Russian pro-Kremlin youth movement "Nashi" who had crossed into Georgian territory from South Ossetia, and accused him of trying to provoke a confrontation.
The ministry said other "Nashi" activist were still in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, having travelled from Moscow.
-------------------------
Georgia doubts Russian military action on exercises
Thu Apr 16, 2009 7:29pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc07/idUKTRE53F5Q420090416?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
By Patrick Worsnip
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Georgia's foreign minister said on Thursday he doubted Russia would resort to military action in response to planned NATO exercises in Georgia that Moscow has described as a provocation.
In an interview with Reuters, Grigol Vashadze dismissed Russian objections to next month's exercises, saying no country could dictate to Georgia over its "sovereign right" to stage them.
Russia demanded on Thursday that NATO call off the exercises, which it said could undermine its efforts to rebuild ties with the Western alliance. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the war games would not help efforts to restore stability in the restive Caucasus region, Interfax news agency reported.
Ex-Soviet Georgia has become a focus of tension between the West and Russia, which sees it as part of its sphere of influence. NATO's offer of eventual membership for Georgia has angered Moscow, which sent troops into Georgia last August.
Vashadze said that event meant fresh Russian action was "not something unimaginable," but added, "At this stage I would say that Russia would be afraid to undertake a new military aggression against Georgia because it would be entering in confrontation with the rest of the civilized world."
Georgia and Russia accused each other on Thursday, however, of building up troops and armor at the de facto borders between their forces, and preparing "provocations.
Russia says its invasion of Georgia last August was to repel an attempt by Tbilisi to restore Georgian control over the pro-Moscow breakaway province of South Ossetia.
Vashadze said NATO exercises in Georgia were the "sovereign right of Georgia and NATO and no other country, no third party shall have judgment or influence over that matter.
"It's not Mr. Lavrov's discretion or competence to dictate to us what kind of exercises we shall have in Georgia."
The instability in the Caucasus had been caused not by Georgia but by the actions of Russia and its predecessor the Soviet Union, the Georgian minister said.
Earlier, Russian envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin described the exercises as "absurd and a provocation," telling Reuters he had asked the alliance secretary-general to delay or cancel them.
NATO says the exercises, to be held 12 miles east of Tbilisi from May 6 to June 1, will involve 1,300 troops from 19 countries. It says they are benign, and will be based on a fictitious U.N.-mandated, NATO-led crisis response operation.
Vashadze was visiting the United Nations to talk to Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the future of U.N. observers in another Georgian breakaway region, Abkhazia, which has been in doubt since the South Ossetia conflict. Their current Security Council mandate expires in mid-June.
Turning to internal troubles in Georgia, where a week-old street campaign by opposition demonstrators has sought to force the resignation of President Mikheil Saakashvili, Vashadze said he believed the dispute would end through talks.
He said a drop in the number of protesters from 25,000 to 1,500 would "bring them, eventually, to a negotiating table, and we will do our best to include them into the political process."
The 41-year-old president has rejected opposition calls to quit over his record on democracy and last year's disastrous war with Russia.
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