OP-ED 38 North: The Future of North Korean Nuclear Delivery Systems

[Housecarl]

Report is 28 pages long....

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http://38north.org/2015/04/nukefuture040715/

The Future of North Korean Nuclear Delivery Systems

By 38 North
07 April 2015

The Future of North Korean Nuclear Delivery Systems

Pyongyang’s inventory of delivery systems is a key factor in considering North Korea’s nuclear future. While its current inventory is well developed, although limited to old Soviet technology only able to reach regional targets, North Korea has bigger ambitions and is seriously pursuing the deployment of more capable, longer-range, more survivable weapons. However, the future of its nuclear delivery systems remains uncertain given technical, engineering and other challenges the North will have to face.

This report details North Korea’s current missile program and provides low-end, medium and high-end scenarios for its future delivery systems capabilities. In developing these projections, a number of potential constraints are considered, including engineering and technical challenges, access to foreign assistance and the regime’s political and economic commitment to the modernization of its arsenal.

Download the report, “The Future of North Korean Nuclear Delivery Systems,” by John Schilling and Henry Kan.

Find other papers in the North Korea’s Nuclear Futures Series.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://csis.org/publication/norad-discusses-north-koreas-missile-technology

Korea Chair Snapshot
Apr 8, 2015

Commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command Adm. William Gortney’s press briefing at the Pentagon on April 7 addressed concerns on North Korea’s nuclear and missile program.
If the NORAD commander's statements are intended to confirm to the press North Korea’s road-mobile KN-08 capability, the main strategic implication is that North Korea's nuclear force are potentially more survivable.
It would be difficult for the U.S. to counter the KN-08 threat because, as Adm. Gortney acknowledged, the U.S. does not currently have the persistent ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) over North Korea to deal with a mobile, re-locatable target.
Therefore, should North Korea have a flight-tested KN-08 its nuclear forces would be less deterrable from a strategic stability perspective.
The KN-08 is presumed to be an ICBM, a mock-up of which was first publicly paraded in April 2012. Speculations indicate that the KN-08 is a three-stage liquid-fuel missile system that can possibly carry a miniaturized nuclear warhead with a range capable of reaching the U.S. west coast.
Gortney gave the assessment the North Korea has the ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for a KN-08 ICBM but emphasized they have not yet tested such technology.
April marks some important anniversaries in North Korea's calendar including Kim Il Sung's birthday (April 15) and the founding of the Korean People's Army (April 25). On April 1st North Korea implemented a no-fly, no-sail zone over the East Sea leading to speculation that a possible provocation or missile test may be in the works.
In April 2012 North Korea successfully launched a Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 a satellite with a flight trajectory over the East Sea followed a successful launch in December 2012.


Korea Chair Snapshot is a product by the CSIS Korea Chair providing key takeaways from breaking events of the day. Snapshot is published by the Office of the Korea Chair (http://www.csis.org/ program/korea-chair) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

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