WAR 12-24-2016-to-12-30-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

(247) 12-03-2016-to-12-09-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...09-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(248) 12-10-2016-to-12-16-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...16-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(249) 12-17-2016-to-12-23-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...23-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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Hummm....Considering the "way of the guerrilla", never mind the past performance of the Nigerian military, I'm not holding my breath over this claim....HC

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...s-boko-haram-out-of-stronghold-president-says

Nigerian Government Pushes Boko Haram Out Of Stronghold, President Says

December 24, 201610:02 AM ET
MAGGIE PENMAN

In a victorious statement on Saturday, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari announced the "long-awaited and most gratifying news of the final crushing of Boko Haram terrorists in their last enclave," declaring, "the terrorists are on the run, and no longer have a place to hide."

The president congratulated Nigerian troops for "finally entering and crushing the remnants of the Boko Haram insurgents at Camp Zero," deep in the Sambisa Forest in northeast Nigeria.

The Sambisa Forest is where it is thought Boko Haram was holding some of the more than 200 schoolgirls kidnapped in April of 2014 from Chibok. The mass kidnapping brought international attention, and sparked the social media movement #BringBackOurGirls.

A deal brokered by the Swiss government and the International Red Cross in October freed 21 girls, but some 197 remain missing as of late December, according to The Associated Press.

President Buhari said "further efforts should be intensified to locate and free our remaining Chibok girls still in captivity. May God be with them."

Though the president's message was celebratory, there are already reports that insurgents are regrouping in Taraba and Bauchi states, south of their stronghold in Borno state. The AP reports that it is unlikely that Nigeria will soon see an end to the deadly suicide bombings and attacks that have plagued the country for years.

Boko Haram's seven-year uprising has killed more than 20,000 people, and driven some 2.3 million people from their homes, creating a massive humanitarian crisis. The United Nations warned last month that 75,000 children were in danger of starving in communities inaccessible because of insecurity.

 

[Housecarl]

Trump Calls For Expansion Of US Nuke Capability, Hours After Putin Urges Russia To Do Same
Started by Possible Impact‎, 12-22-2016 09:57 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ity-Hours-After-Putin-Urges-Russia-To-Do-Same

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/natio...eal-with-us-missile-defence-shield-putin-says

Russia needs new nuclear weapons to deal with US missile defence shield, Putin says

DAVID PUGLIESE, OTTAWA CITIZEN
More from David Pugliese, Ottawa Citizen
Published on: December 24, 2016 | Last Updated: December 24, 2016 2:01 PM EST

Russian President Vladimir Putin says his country needs new nuclear weapons to deal with the U.S. missile defence system.

During interviews and speeches on Thursday and Friday, the Russian leader said his nation should be swift in “adjusting plans to neutralize potential threats to our country.”

Strengthening Russia’s nuclear capability is the chief objective for 2017, he added.

“We need to enhance the combat capability of strategic nuclear forces, primarily by strengthening missile complexes that will be guaranteed to penetrate existing and future missile defense systems,” Putin said.

At another news conference he argued that the modernization of Russia’s nuclear arsenals is a necessary response to the U.S. missile defence system. “It’s not us who have been speeding up the arms race,” Putin said.


He also stated Russia’s nuclear-equipped missiles can penetrate any missile defence.

More from the Associated Press:

Speaking during a marathon end-of-year news conference, Putin said he sees “nothing unusual” in Trump’s pledge to strengthen the U.S. nuclear forces, calling the statement in line with the president-elect’s campaign promises.

In his wide-ranging remarks, the Russian leader claimed that his country’s military is stronger than any potential aggressor, but acknowledged that the U.S. military is bigger.

On the U.S. election, Putin described President Barack Obama’s accusations of Russian hacking into Democratic leaders’ emails as an attempt to shift the blame for Hillary Clinton’s defeat.

Asked how he responded to Obama’s accusations when he brought them up in their conversation, Putin said he wouldn’t divulge details of a confidential discussion.

He shrugged off Washington’s claims of the hackers’ Russian affiliation, saying they could be based elsewhere.

“The most important thing is the substance of the information the hackers have uncovered,” Putin said, adding that the Democrats should have apologized to Americans over the “manipulations” the emails revealed.

In response to Obama’s comment that “Ronald Reagan would roll over in his grave” upon seeing recent poll results showing that more than one-third of Republicans view Putin favourably, Putin said Reagan would be happy to see his party win.

“It shows that a significant part of the American people have a similar view about the situation in the world and what we need to do, what the common dangers and problems are,” he said.

The two countries’ relations have plummeted to their lowest level since the Cold War. Putin said he agrees with Trump’s assessment of poor U.S.-Russian relations, adding that they “can’t be worse.”

Noting the attack in Berlin, Putin called for better co-operation in fighting terrorism, saying such efforts between Russia and the West have been effectively paralyzed by Western sanctions against Russia.

Putin expressed hope that he would meet soon with Trump to discuss how to improve the two countries’ relations — and would “definitely” visit the United States if Trump invites him.

The Russian leader added with a smile that “no one but us expected him to win.”

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.alamogordonews.com/story...hopeful-trumps-nuclear-weapons-plan/95626194/

The Air Force Is Hopeful on Trump's Nuclear-Weapons Plan

Valerie Insinna, Defense News 2:27 p.m. MST December 23, 2016

WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump’s nuclear agenda remains opaque, but current Air Force officials are cautiously optimistic that he will stay the course on nuclear modernization.

Trump raised eyebrows during his campaign with vague statements on nuclear issues that sometimes contradicted longstanding US policy, such as when he said he was prepared to allow South Korea and Japan attain nuclear weapons.

He frequently went back and forth on when he would be prepared to use nuclear force, often stating he would “be the last person” to use nuclear weapons but at the same time refusing to rule out nuclear attacks in Europe or against the Islamic State.

“Well, it is an absolute last stance,” he said on CBS in January. “And, you know, I use the word unpredictable. You want to be unpredictable.”

Military officials interviewed for this article largely downplayed concerns about Trump’s fitness to control nukes. Instead, they portrayed the nuclear arsenal as one of the few weapons enterprises supported by presidential administrations regardless of party affiliation.

"I would be lying if I said we don't wonder. Of course we do. But I tell you what, I am just absolutely confident,” Maj. Gen. Michael Fortney, vice commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, said when asked about how a Trump presidency could affect the nuclear enterprise.

“Every administration from the time I've been alive has supported the nuclear triad, a strong deterrent assured force. And the need for that strong deterrent assured force is going to be just as strong in January as it is today," he said. "So I am confident for the need for the systems that we have that do deter and do assure our allies and partners, that's going to be seen from any administration. The next one and the one after that."

Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James will hold her first meeting with Trump’s transition team this week. In a Dec. 8 interview with Defense News, James said she plans to raise the topic of the nuclear enterprise. She also intends to share her insights and experiences from trips to the bases that host bombers and ICBMs, including her most recent visit to F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming last week.

“It is certainly my belief that the next administration is going to be supportive of the thrust of the last few years, the focus on people, the focus on the readiness, the focus on modernization,” she said. “Everything that I've heard and seen so far suggest that they are going to very much be supportive of the nuclear enterprise."

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein and Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, the service’s deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, have already met with Trump’s transition team.

“Nuclear has been foundational to the defense of our nation through seven administrations. I don’t see it changing for this one,” Weinstein said last week, adding that he planned to meet with the team again on Dec. 12.

During the first session, "we discussed the threats that exist from other nations, we discussed where we are with modernization programs and the changes we’ve made,” he said. “It was a really open, transparent and really productive meeting.”

One of the biggest questions is whether Trump will alter current plans to acquire the new bombers, ballistic missile submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles — the three weapons known as the nuclear triad — as well as a nuclear-capable cruise missile for the B-21 bomber.

Although Trump has not directly addressed the issue, his transition website suggests a commitment to upholding the triad.

Trump “recognizes the uniquely catastrophic threats posed by nuclear weapons and cyber attacks,” the website reads. “Mr. Trump will ensure our strategic nuclear triad is modernized to ensure it continues to be an effective deterrent, and his administration will review and minimize our nation’s infrastructure vulnerabilities to cyber threats.”

However, Trump’s nominee for defense secretary, retired Marine Gen. James Mattis, has previously questioned whether all three legs of the triad are necessary.

“Is it time to reduce the triad to a dyad, removing the land‐based missiles?” Mattis asked during a 2015 Senate panel.

Even if Trump moves forward with the three acquisition programs meant to modernize the nuclear triad — the B-21 bomber and Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, both overseen by the Air Force, and the Navy’s Ohio replacement submarine — the president-elect still has several options to grow or roll back the size of the arsenal.

In a Dec. 8 report, the Congressional Budget Office proposed cuts to the nuclear triad in an effort to reduce the nation's deficit.

Under the Obama administration’s current budget plans, the Air Force plans to ultimately procure as many as 100 B-21 bombers and 642 new ICBMs. The Navy is set to buy 12 ballistic missile submarines or SSBNs. Those acquisition programs will about double the usual spending on nuclear weapons— currently about $20 billion a year — through the mid 2030s, CBO said.

The analysts offered two potential plans that would have the Defense Department retain the triad, but in smaller numbers. One path would take the nuclear force down to 1,550 warheads, reducing the arsenal to 10 SSBNs and 300 ICBMs, which would trim about $12.3 billion from the 2017 to 2026 budget submission. An even more drastic plan would cut it down to 1,000 warheads — leaving 8 SSBNs and 150 ICBMs — and decreasing the budget authority over the next 10 years by $17 billion.

The bomber fleet, which can be employed for both nuclear and conventional missions, would be left alone in both of those scenarios, but CBO also presented two alternative plans that target the B-21. The first would eliminate the Long Range Standoff Weapon, which would allow the B-21 to conduct nuclear strikes from a distance, to save about $9 billion. Another option would defer development of the B-21 until after 2026, reducing new budget authority by $39 billion.

Conversely, Trump could also make changes to the nuclear posture that boost procurement numbers. Air Force advocacy groups and supporters in Congress have championed a 200-aircraft buy of the B-21, for example.

James said it’s likely the Trump administration will conduct a nuclear posture review before making any sweeping changes to the nuclear enterprise.

The Defense Department has not conducted a nuclear posture review since 2010, when the United States had a better relationship with Russia and was collaborating on nuclear disarmament agreements like the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. One senior Air Force official remembered relations during the early part of the decade being so cozy that he hosted a meeting with a Russian strategic forces official at an ICBM base.

"It was an open dialogue, we had a great discussion ... he answered all my questions, we drank vodka, great time. That's not the relationship we have right now. It would be great if it came back, but the whole world environment has changed," he said. “I think it would be good to evaluate the current world environment, what the threat is out there and what’s the best way to keep us safe at a cost that’s reasonable.”

Yet another unknown is whether the Trump administration will continue to raise the profile of the nuclear workforce. The eight years of Obama’s tenure as president were plagued by multiple scandals implicating Air Force nuclear personnel in systemic cheating on tests and drug use. Before that, under President George W. Bush, the service saw a particularly embarrassing incident where the officials lost track of nuclear-tipped cruise missiles for more than a day.

The Air Force responded by pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into funding immediate equipment needs and into policy changes that addressed training and morale. While it is unknown whether the Trump administration will continue these efforts, multiple service officials pointed to recent changes in the Air Force chain of command — including elevating Global Strike Command’s head to a four-star position and the promotion of the service’s deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration to the two-star general.

Ultimately, the hope is that uniformed leaders will help safeguard the nuclear community and prevent it from becoming neglected once again.

“Before [the scandals], the highest ranking advocate you had for the nuclear enterprise was a colonel,” said one Air Force official not authorized to speak on the record. “Now you have a four star and a three star, and that’s very difficult to ignore.”

“If we run into a position where we’re removing that level of senior leader from the nuclear enterprise, then I will become concerned again,” he added.

Editor's note: This story was updated on Dec. 19 to reflect that a 2007 Air Force mishap of unaccounted nuclear weapons occurred before President Obama took office.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.dw.com/en/german-military-to-send-first-soldier-to-baghdad/a-36895213

German military to send first soldier to Baghdad

The Bundeswehr will be helping to train the Iraqi army in Baghdad in 2017, as part of a NATO mission. Up until now, the military has confined itself to helping the Peshmerga Kurds in the north of the country.

Date 23.12.2016
Author Ben Knight

The German military will finally be dipping a toe into one of the more hostile areas of the Middle East in the New Year. A spokesman for the German Defense Ministry confirmed to DW that Berlin will be sending a military instructor to Baghdad in January, to advise the Iraqi army on a "ministerial level."

The single instructor, who is likely to spend an initial six months in the Iraqi capital, will be part of an approximately 40-strong NATO team taking part in the alliance's "Training and Capacity Building Activity in Iraq" (NTCB-I).

According to NATO's website, the training program was first agreed in July 2015 at the request of the Iraqi government, and would specifically help the military disarm improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and landmines, as well as provide advice on "security sector reform, military medicine and civil military planning."

The agreement marked the first time that NATO has been active in Iraq since the United States officially withdrew from the country (while leaving private contractors) in 2011. A year later, at a summit in Warsaw in July 2016, NATO allies agreed to augment the plan with a new training and capacity building effort, to run alongside a "train-the-trainers" program for 350 Iraqi officers in Jordan that has been running since April.

No parliamentary approval required

"It's called helping them to help themselves," said the Defense Ministry spokesman, who remained anonymous as per German government policy. "NATO will offer courses to the Iraqi security forces - but that's at a ministerial level, so they won't be on the ground."

Since the mission is not considered dangerous, the Defense Ministry argued, it does not require parliamentary approval. Markus Grübel, state secretary to Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, informed Bundestag representatives as much this week, assuring them that the training officer would not be involved in "armed action." Also, Grübel said, the German military considers the security situation in and around Baghdad to be relatively stable.

Up until now, the Bundeswehr has confined its activities in Iraq to the area surrounding the northern city of Erbil, where 150 German soldiers have been training Peshmerga fighters since last year. Erbil is also considered relatively safe, though it is only around an hour and a half from the area where the Kurds are battling the [so-called] "Islamic State," (IS) a Defense Ministry statement said.

Supplying weapons to Kurds

But Germany is providing the Peshmerga with more than expertise - the Bundeswehr is now regularly providing the Kurdish fighters with thousands of its own standard assault rifle, the G36, plus millions of rounds of ammunition. The latest round of these arms deliveries were confirmed in Defense Ministry statements from December 8 and 14, which said Germany had delivered 1,000 G36s in mid-November, followed by 2.5 million rounds of ammunition, as well as spare parts for weapons that had already been supplied, including rocket launchers.

As German law requires, the weapons come with an "end-user certificate," which obligates the Peshmerga not to pass them on to any third party. Despite this, it is known that "Islamic State" and other extremist factions in the region have acquired German guns in one way or another.

In February this year, the German Foreign Ministry summoned a representative of the Kurdish regional government to explain media reports that some Kurdish fighters, strapped for cash, had been selling on their German weapons.

The Bundeswehr says it has supplied the Kurds in northern Iraq with almost 2,500 tons of military equipment - including more than 20,000 rifles. When the supplies were first delivered in 2014, it was considered a taboo break that was ushered in with an impassioned debate in the Bundestag.

The central Iraqi government, meanwhile, has had to make do with 3,000 protective vests, as well as medical supplies. German peace activists say the deliveries to Kurds violate both the German constitution and international law.

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A twin bomb attack on the headquarters of an Iranian Kurdish party based in northern Iraq has killed seven people. It is unclear who is behind the attack, but signs point to Iran. (21.12.2016)

Report: 'Islamic State' used chemical weapons in Iraq, Syria
The "Islamic State" has used chemical weapons on at least 52 occasions in Iraq and Syria, says a London-based analytical firm. The IHS Markit report comes as Iraqi forces seek to retake Mosul from the militant group. (22.11.2016)

German churches call for new law on arms exports
The two main churches in Germany say a new German law on arms exports is needed, especially those to non-EU countries. They highlighted the frequent gap between declared political principles and actual practice. (12.12.2016)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKBN14D0JA?il=0

WORLD NEWS | Sat Dec 24, 2016 | 5:33pm EST

Russian jets step up raids on rebel-held Idlib and rural Aleppo

Russian jets stepped up strikes on several towns in Syria's rebel-held Idlib province and rural Aleppo two days after the evacuation of rebels from their last pocket in the northern city of Aleppo, rebels and residents said on Saturday.

They said at least eight strikes targeted Binish, Saraqeb and Jisr al Shaqour - main towns in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib. There were reports of several casualties, mainly among civilians.

Idlib province for months has been a target of Russia's heavy bombing campaign against rebel-held areas. It came even while the former eastern part of Aleppo under insurgent control faced an escalation in aerial raids and shelling until its defenses collapsed and the rebels were forced to agree to an evacuation deal.

The Syrian army has hinted the next major campaign after its victory in Aleppo was to rout insurgents in their stronghold of Idlib province, where mainly Islamist brigades operating under a coalition known as Jaish al Fateh are in control.

Residents and rebels said Russian and Syrian jets also staged heavy strikes on rebel-held parts of western and southern parts of rural Aleppo for the second day since the last rebels left their remaining pocket of territory in Aleppo city.

They raided the town of Khan al Asal, about 14 km (9 miles) west of Aleppo, with cluster bombs while several strikes hit Hreitan and Andan, according to a rebel fighter from Jaish al Mujahdeen. The nearby town of Atareb was also hit.

Although the Syrian army, with the help of Iranian-backed militias, was able to take full control of Aleppo city after Russia conducted hundreds of raids that pulverized rebel-held parts, large swathes of western and southern Aleppo countryside remain in rebel hands.

Rebels said they repelled an Iranian-backed militia assault on Saturday to gain ground in the Rashideen area, west of Aleppo city.

The Syrian army continued to comb areas in eastern Aleppo that fell under its control on Thursday. The Lebanese Hizbollah- run military news service said weapons caches left by insurgents exploded, causing two deaths and wounding scores.

(Reporting by Suleiman Al-Khalidi; Editing by Dan Grebler)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...sea-made-made-islands-to-guard-airstrips.html

US intel: China to put missiles on S China Sea man-made islands to guard airstrips

By Lucas Tomlinson
Published December 24, 2016
FoxNews.com

Video

EXCLUSIVE: The U.S. intelligence community thinks the "hundreds" of surface-to-air missiles that China recently shipped to its Hainan Island in the South China Sea will be moved to the country’s nearby and disputed man-made islands in the coming months, two military officials told Fox News on Saturday.

The plan follows what U.S. intelligence officials say is Beijing’s expressed desire to protect its three airstrips on three of the man-made islands.

The missiles now on Hainan island, China’s largest in the South China Sea, are a combination of short- medium- and long-range weapons. And they include one battalion of the advanced SA-21 system, a long-range missle system that is based on fourth-generation Russian software and capable of knocking out aircraft from as far away as 250 miles.

The total number of surface-to-air missiles on Hainan could reach 500, one of the military officials told Fox News.

China shipping more surface-to-air missiles from the mainland to the South China Sea was first reported Friday by Fox News.

The new missiles have been seen by American intelligence satellites on China’s provincial island province of Hainan, which is not part the disputed islands.

Officials think the location is “only temporary” and likely a training site before the missiles are deployed in early 2017 to the contested Spratley Islands or Woody Island.

The two missile systems seen on Hainan island are known as the CSA-6b and HQ-9. The CSA-6b is a combined close-in missile system with a range of 10 miles and also contains anti-aircraft guns. The longer-range HQ-9 system has a range of 125 miles, and is roughly based on the Russian S-300 system.

This latest deployment of Chinese military equipment comes days after the Chinese returned an unclassified underwater research drone in the South China Sea. The Pentagon accused a Chinese Navy ship of stealing the drone, over the objections of the American crew operating it in international waters to collect oceanographic data.

The escalation comes weeks after President elect-Donald Trump received a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president breaking decades-long “one-China” protocol and angering Beijing.

China has deployed surface-to-air missiles to Woody Island in the South China Sea before, as Fox News first reported in February.

It has yet to deploy missiles to its seven man-made islands in the Spratly chain of islands. Weeks ago, civilian satellite imagery obtained by a Washington, D.C., based think-tank showed gun emplacement on all the disputed islands, but not missiles.

Earlier this month, Fox News first reported China getting ready to deploy another missile defense system from a port in southeast China. China also flew a long-range bomber around the South China Sea for the first time since March 2015 and days after Mr. Trump’s phone call with his Taiwan counterpart.

Days before President Trump’s call, a pair of long-range H-6K bombers flew around the island of Taiwan for the first time.

Beijing has long expressed interest in fortifying its seven man-made islands in the South China Sea.

Last year, China’s President Xi Jinping pledged not to “militarize” the islands, in the Rose Garden at the White House.

“This another example of the adventurous and aggressiveness of the Chinese in the face of an anemic and feckless set of policies that we've seen over the last eight years,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, former head of Air Force intelligence, in an interview with Fox News.

This month, U.S. intelligence satellites also spotted components for the Chinese version of the SA-21 system at the port of Jieyang, in southeast China, where officials say China has made similar military shipments in the past to its islands in the South China Sea.

The Chinese SA-21 system is a more capable missile system than the HQ-9.

Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence-idUSKBN14E025
Edition: United States

World News | Sun Dec 25, 2016 | 7:12am EST

China's aircraft carrier to drill in Western Pacific

A live-fire drill using an aircraft carrier is seen carried out in the Bohai sea, China, December 11, 2016. Picture taken December 11, 2016. REUTERS/Stringer

China's first aircraft carrier will carry out drills in the Western Pacific, in what the navy called part of routine exercises, amid renewed tension over self-ruled Taiwan that Beijing claims as its own.

The navy said in a statement late on Saturday the Liaoning, along with its accompanying fleet, would conduct "exercises far out at sea", without giving details of the location or route, in what is likely its first blue-water drill far from home waters.

"This exercise is being carried out in accordance with annual exercise plans," the navy said in a statement also carried on the front page of the official People's Liberation Army Daily.

Taiwan's defence ministry said on Sunday it had been monitoring the drills closely as the Liaoning went through the Miyako Strait, a body of water between the Japanese islands of Miyako and Okinawa, heading into the Pacific.

It said it was monitoring whether the aircraft carrier would continue into the Bashi Channel, which lies between Taiwan and the Philippines, on its return.

China's military has conducted its first ever live-fire drills using an aircraft carrier and fighters in the northeastern Bohai Sea close to the Korean peninsula this month, and has more recently been in the East China Sea.

The navy showed pictures on its official microblog from the drills in the East China Sea, including J-15 carrier-borne fighter jets launching into the sky, overseen by navy chief Wu Shengli.

They conducted aerial refuelling and air combat exercises on Thursday, the navy said.

China's growing military presence in the disputed South China Sea in particular has fuelled concern, with the United States criticising its militarization of maritime outposts and holding regular air and naval patrols to ensure freedom of navigation.

The Western Pacific exercise comes amid new tension over self-ruled Taiwan, following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's telephone call with the island's president that upset Beijing.

China's air force conducted long-range drills this month above the East and South China Seas that rattled Japan and Taiwan. China said those exercises were also routine.

China's Soviet-built Liaoning aircraft carrier has participated in previous military exercises, including some in the South China Sea, but China is years away from perfecting carrier operations similar to those the United States has practised for decades.

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Last December, the defence ministry confirmed China was building a second aircraft carrier but its launch date is unclear. The aircraft carrier programme is a state secret.

Beijing could build multiple aircraft carriers over the next 15 years, the Pentagon said in a report last year.

China's successful operation of the Liaoning is the first step in what state media and some military experts believe will be the deployment of domestically built carriers by 2020.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Additional reporting by J.R. Wu in Taipei; Editing by Robert Birsel and Paul Tait)

 

[Housecarl]

Well this could have gone real dumb....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/fake-news-story-sets-off-israel-pakistan-twitter-173536722.html

WorldCNN

Fake news story sets off Israel-Pakistan Twitter feud

Associated Press
17 hours ago

JERUSALEM (AP) — A fake news story has touched off a tense Twitter confrontation between nuclear power Pakistan and Israel, widely believed to have a nuclear arsenal of its own, in an episode that underlines the potentially harmful impact of such stories in sensitive global affairs

In an apparent response to a fake story claiming Israel's former defense minister threatened a nuclear attack against Pakistan if it sends troops to Syria, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif reminded Israel that "Pakistan is a nuclear state too."

Israel's Defense Ministry tweeted back Saturday, saying the original story on the site AWD News was "totally fictitious."

AWD has been identified by fact-checking organizations as a fake news site.

Israel maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying the existence of an arsenal. Pakistan became a nuclear power in 1998. The countries have no diplomatic ties.

There was no immediate reaction from Pakistan to Israel's response.
Comments (271)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-defence-taiwan-idUSKBN14F061

SOUTH CHINA SEA | Mon Dec 26, 2016 | 4:06am EST

Chinese carrier enters South China Sea amid renewed tension

By J.R. Wu | TAIPEI

A group of Chinese warships led by the country's sole aircraft carrier entered the top half of the South China Sea on Monday after passing south of Taiwan, the self-ruled island's Defense Ministry said of what China has termed a routine exercise.

The move comes amid renewed tension over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, ineligible for state-to-state relations, following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's telephone call with the island's president that upset Beijing.

The Soviet-built Liaoning aircraft carrier has taken part in previous exercises, including some in the South China Sea, but China is years away from perfecting carrier operations similar to those the United States has practiced for decades.

Taiwan's Defense Ministry said the carrier, accompanied by five vessels, passed southeast of the Pratas Islands, which are controlled by Taiwan, heading southwest.

The carrier group earlier passed 90 nautical miles south of Taiwan's southernmost point via the Bashi Channel, between Taiwan and the Philippines.

"Staying vigilant and flexible has always been the normal method of maintaining airspace security," said ministry spokesman Chen Chung-chi, declining to say whether Taiwan fighter jets were scrambled or if submarines had been deployed.

Chen said the ministry was continuing to "monitor and grasp the situation".

Senior Taiwan opposition Nationalist lawmaker Johnny Chiang said the Liaoning exercise was China's signal to the United States that it has broken through the "first island chain", an area that includes Japan's Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan.

In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said people should not read too much into what the carrier was up to, as its movements were within the law.

"Our Liaoning should enjoy in accordance with the law freedom of navigation and overflight as set by international law, and we hope all sides can respect this right of China's," she told a daily news briefing.

Influential state-run Chinese tabloid the Global Times said the exercise showed how the carrier was improving its combat capabilities and that it should now sail even further afield.

"The Chinese fleet will cruise to the Eastern Pacific sooner or later. When China's aircraft carrier fleet appears in offshore areas of the U.S. one day, it will trigger intense thinking about maritime rules," the newspaper said in an editorial.

China has been angered recently by U.S. naval patrols near islands that China claims in the South China Sea. This month, a Chinese navy ship seized a U.S. underwater drone in the South China Sea. China later returned it.

Japan said late on Sunday it had spotted six Chinese naval vessels including the Liaoning traveling through the passage between Miyako and Okinawa and into the Pacific.

Japan's top government spokesman said on Monday the voyage showed China's expanding military capability and Japan was closely monitoring it.

China's air force conducted long-range drills this month above the East and South China Seas that rattled Japan and Taiwan. China said those exercises were also routine.

Last December, the defense ministry confirmed China was building a second aircraft carrier but its launch date is unclear. The aircraft carrier program is a state secret.

Beijing could build multiple aircraft carriers over the next 15 years, the Pentagon said in a report last year.

China claims most of the South China Sea through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. Neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.

(Additional reporting by Kiyoshi Takanaka in Tokyo and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Robert Birsel and Nick Macfie)

ALSO IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

China begins daily civil charter flights to South China Sea outpost
China says don't read too much into U.S. drone case

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-moscow-evacuation-idUSKBN14F0IY

WORLD NEWS | Mon Dec 26, 2016 | 5:24am EST

Police evacuate three Moscow railway stations after bomb threat: agencies

Police in Moscow have evacuated almost 3,000 people from three different railway stations after receiving an anonymous bomb threat, Russian news agencies reported on Monday.

The TASS news agency said police planned to use sniffer dogs to check the Kazansky, Leningradsky and Yaroslavsky railway stations. All three stations are located on the same Moscow square.

(Writing by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-crime-idUSKBN14E0IF

WORLD NEWS | Sun Dec 25, 2016 | 5:00pm EST

Thirteen killed in Mexican wave of drug violence

Thirteen people were killed in the restive Mexican states of Michoacan and Guerrero, Mexican authorities said on Sunday, amid feuds between rival drug gangs that have racked the country.

The prosecutor's office of the western state of Michoacan said in a statement the heads of six men were found in front of a business in the town of Jiquilpan, near the border with Jalisco, where drug traffickers from the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) operate.

A threatening message signed by the New Michoacan Family (NFM), a rival criminal group, was left next to the heads, the prosecutor´s office also said.

In another episode in the mountains of Atoyac in the state of Guerrero, home to the resort town of Acapulco, seven people were killed by gunfire, including three police officers, state police said.

(Reporting by Anahi Rama; Writing by Natalie Schachar; Editing by Phil Berlowitz)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.dw.com/en/french-swiss-aid-worker-kidnapped-in-mali/a-36905049

French-Swiss aid worker kidnapped in Mali

The female employee, who worked with a small children's nonprofit, was seized in the northern city of Gao on Saturday. There have been no claims of responsibility.

Date 25.12.2016

Malian officials said three men stormed the aid worker's home and took her and an orphan at the home in Gao, more than 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) from the capital, Bamako.

A local radio station in Gao said the victim was affiliated with "Aide Gao," a small aid agency that helps children suffering from malnutrition.

She was taken by a group of men who drove off in a Toyota pickup truck, the radio station said.

Hamadou Guindo, head of security for the governor of Gao, told The Associated Press (AP) that a rescue operation has been launched.

It was not clear who was responsible, or why the aid worker was taken.

Jihadists suspected

The former French colony has been beset by attacks from resurgent Islamist groups like al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) this year, especially in the north.

Gao was occupied by Islamist extremists in 2012 until a French-led military operation forced them from power.

But United Nations peacekeeping patrols and Malian soldiers are still frequently targeted by attacks. However, kidnappings are rare.

Last month, the offices of the UN peacekeeping mission located next to the Gao airport terminal were razed by a truck-bomb explosion which forced the airport to close.

Another Swiss woman has been abducted twice by jihadists in the northern town of Timbuktu. She has been in captivity since her second kidnapping last January and is believed to be in the hands of al-Qaida-linked militants.

A French diplomatic source in Paris said it was trying to verify the information.
mm/kl (AFP, AP, Reuters)

DW RECOMMENDS

Defense Minister visits German soldiers in Mali
Germany's Minister of Defense Ursula von der Leyen visited German soldiers stationed in northern Mali. Criticism of the mission is mounting in Germany. (19.12.2016)
Germany's army union slams conditions for soldiers in Mali
Car bomb explodes outside Somalia capital Mogadishu's port
Violence mars local elections in Mali

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/india-tests-agni-v-ballistic-missile

India Tests Agni-V Ballistic Missile

By: Vivek Raghuvanshi, December 26, 2016

NEW DELHI*–*India today conducted successful test of the nuclear-capable long-range surface to surface ballistic missile, Agni-V.

The missile is indigenously designed and developed by state-owned Defence Research and Development Organisation.

"The test*– the fourth in a row*–*was a complete success," a senior DRDO scientist said.*"Three more tests are planned before the missile is inducted in the defense forces...*The full range test-flight of the missile has further boosted the indigenous missile capabilities and deterrence level of the country."

All*the radars, tracking systems, and range stations tracked and monitored the flight performance, and all the mission objectives were successful. This was the 4th test of Agni-V missile and the second one from a canister on a road mobile launcher. All the four missions have been successful, according to a Ministry of Defense announcement.

"Agni-V will be the last link in the chain of land-based deterrence vis a vis China as at present India cannot pose a viable threat to major Chinese counter value targets such as large cities," said*Rahul Bhonsle, a defense analyst and retired Indian Army brigadier and defense analyst. "This will certainly place the country at par with the Chinese as well as other major missile powers such as the United States and Russia to some extent. Thus India enters the exclusive intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) club."*

*"India had strategically delayed the testing of 5000 kilometres range Agni-V for one year to ensure a seat in the Missile Control Technology Regime (MTCR) which it got in July this year," said a senior MoD official who requested anonymity.

The fourth test of Agni-V missile was first scheduled for December 2015 which was postponed to January 2016 and then to March 2016 and then rescheduled because of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to US*in June this year.

The first test of this missile was conducted on April 19, 2012, the second test was carried out on September 15, 2013 and the third on January 31,*2015 from the same base. The surface-to-surface Agni-V missile is seven meters long and can carry a nuclear warhead of more than one ton.

A DRDO scientist further noted that there is also a proposal to develop Agni-VI missile with a range of over 10,000 kilometers, but the status of the project is not known.

India has already inducted the homemade nuclear capable Agni-I with a range of 700 kilometers, Agni-II with a range of 2000 kilometers,3000 kilometers range Agni-III missile The 4000 kilometers range Agni-IV missile is in user trial stage.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/12/25/52/0200000000AEN20161225000400320F.html

N.K. may develop ICBM capable of hitting U.S. mainland by 2020: report

2016/12/25 10:26

SEOUL, Dec. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is believed to have secured a technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads and load them onto its Scud and Nodong ballistic missiles, a report issued by a Seoul government think tank said Sunday.

The Institute for National Security Strategy under the National Intelligence Service said in its 2016 annual report that North Korea is expected to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland by 2020 at the latest after drastically increasing the number of its nuclear warheads.

"The seriousness of the North Korean nuclear program lies in the rapid growth in the number of warheads, as well as its miniaturization and diversification. The North is estimated to have succeeded in developing nuclear warheads on par with boosted fission weapons through its fourth and fifth nuclear tests," the report said.

Notably, the blast in its fifth nuclear test on Sept. 9 this year was measured at 10 to 20 kilotons, compared with 7.9 kilotons in its third test and 6 kilotons in its fourth test, the report showed, citing some progress in the explosive power.

The institute went on to say that the North is believed to have secured a basic technology to have its ballistic missiles re-enter Earth's atmosphere, despite a low success rate.

"Of the North's eight Musudan missile tests this year, all, excluding the sixth, ended in failure. In the sixth test, a Musudan missile went up over 1,000 kilometers before re-entering Earth's atmosphere and flying an additional 400 km," it noted.

Regarding the North's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) technology, the institute said: "It will take several years for SLBMs to be deployed, but the deployment is now a matter of time, not a matter of technology. Considering the capabilities of North Korean submarines, U.S. military bases not only in South Korea but in Japan will be under threat."

**(END)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/i...general-says/article/2610383?custom_click=rss

ISIS fight to slog on at least two years, top general says

By SARAH WESTWOOD (@SARAHCWESTWOOD) • 12/26/16 2:43 PM

Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, who is commanding coalition forces in Iraq as they battle the Islamic State, predicted the fight against terrorists entrenched in Mosul and Raqqa, Syria could last at least two years.

Townsend told the Daily Beast on Christmas Day that Islamic State militants have begun to employ increasingly brutal tactics against civilians as Iraqi forces and a coalition of Kurdish fighters and irregular militias — which will soon become legally recognized in Iraq under a controversial new law — continue their battle to retake Mosul from terrorists.

"Beheading with a knife isn't good enough anymore," Townsend said, noting Islamic State terrorists had used blowtorches, chainsaws and even bulldozers to murder civilians.

Townsend said the roughly two-year fight against the Islamic State would involve driving the terrorists from their strongholds in Raqqa and Mosul before destroying the survivors who flee to the desert between the two cities.

President Obama has weathered criticism for allowing the Islamic State to flourish in the Middle East under his watch.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....I recall Gen. Powell saying "You break it you buy it" when I read the article title.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://nationalinterest.org/feature...atience-over-donald-trump-must-confront-18864

The Time for 'Strategic Patience' Is Over. Donald Trump Must Confront North Korea.

Pyongyang is on the verge of being an actual, rather than potential, threat to the United States.

Geoff Dyer
December 26, 2016
January/February 2017

Editor’s Note: TNI’s January/February 2017 print issue convened a symposium on the most significant national-security challenge awaiting the Trump administration. You can find all entries in the series here.

EACH OF the last three presidents has arrived in the White House to find a terrifying file on his desk entitled “North Korea,” full of grim warnings about an isolated hermit kingdom bent on developing nuclear weapons that could reach the continental United States. Each was urged to do everything in his power to prevent this nightmare. Yet each ultimately chose to look the other way and relegate North Korea to the category of future problems that someone else will have to deal with. They all tried some mixture of negotiations and sanctions to persuade the North Korean regime to back off. And when that failed, they simply played for time, hoping Pyongyang would eventually return to the table for serious talks. The Obama administration even devised a name for waiting it out—“strategic patience.”

Donald Trump will have no such luxury. Given all the other problems and crises that will fall into his lap, he too will be tempted to downgrade North Korea to the second tier. But Trump will not be able to punt. This time, it really is different. After five nuclear tests, a flurry of missile launches—some failures, but some at least partial successes—and advances in warhead miniaturization, North Korea’s nuclear program now has a critical mass that can no longer be avoided. James Clapper, the outgoing director of national intelligence, gave the game away last month when he admitted that getting North Korea to give up its nuclear program was now “a lost cause.” Nuclear weapons, he admitted, are “their ticket to survival.”

So what can Trump do differently? One of the reasons that the previous three administrations stuck to the same failing path is that the other options were so poor. Those options are no better now that Pyongyang is on the verge of being an actual, rather than potential, threat to the United States. But he will have to try something.

Given North Korea’s advances, there has been a surge of talk about potential preemptive strikes on its missile facilities, including from figures such as Mike Mullen, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But President-elect Trump would have to take into consideration the same risks that have always made this a Hail Mary—the potential damage to Seoul as Pyongyang unleashes a missile avalanche in retaliation. China might also feel obligated to come to the defense of its treaty ally.

Alternatively, Trump could order his administration to swallow its pride and return to the negotiating table—before North Korea has made any concessions. He could frame this as recognition of reality and argue that no one has actually tested Kim Jong-un to see if he has any room for flexibility. And what about the potential theater of a Trump-Kim summit? He would own cable news for a week.

But the objective of a new round of talks is unclear. If the argument were that the United States needs a new approach because North Korea is on the verge of becoming an undeniable nuclear power, why would it make concessions in new negotiations? Pyongyang would likely push for a series of commitments from Washington that would upend security arrangements for the entire region. And although the United States would issue a denial, it would look to the world as if Washington were recognizing North Korea as a legitimate nuclear power—Pyongyang’s ultimate objective. The domestic politics are also lousy for Trump. He is already preparing for bruising fights with Senate Republicans over things he sees as his actual priorities, such as infrastructure funding. Does he really want a major battle over North Korea?

That leaves one other option, and the one nonmilitary approach that has never been tried: China sanctions. Every direct sanction the United States has thought of has been applied on North Korea. But that is not the case with most of the Chinese entities that trade with Pyongyang and are its effective economic lifeline. The objective would be to impress on Xi Jinping that the United States is at its wits’ end. Either China really puts the squeeze on its ally to give up its nuclear weapons, or it will feel the impact. More missile defense in South Korea and Japan—something Beijing would hate—could also be on the table. There is no guarantee of success, of course, but the Trump administration can suggest that if this approach fails, the pressure for a U.S. preemptive strike will grow and grow and grow.

The one thing Trump has said about North Korea is that the United States should leave it to China to solve the problem. That will not happen by itself. Trump will need to give Beijing some encouragement.

Geoff Dyer writes about U.S. foreign policy for the Financial Times and is the former bureau chief in China and Brazil. He is the author of The Contest of the Century: The New Era of Competition with China—and How America Can Win.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/india-tests-agni-v-ballistic-missile

India Tests Agni-V Ballistic Missile

By: Vivek Raghuvanshi, December 26, 2016

NEW DELHI*–*India today conducted successful test of the nuclear-capable long-range surface to surface ballistic missile, Agni-V.

The missile is indigenously designed and developed by state-owned Defence Research and Development Organisation.

"The test*– the fourth in a row*–*was a complete success," a senior DRDO scientist said.*"Three more tests are planned before the missile is inducted in the defense forces...*The full range test-flight of the missile has further boosted the indigenous missile capabilities and deterrence level of the country."

All*the radars, tracking systems, and range stations tracked and monitored the flight performance, and all the mission objectives were successful. This was the 4th test of Agni-V missile and the second one from a canister on a road mobile launcher. All the four missions have been successful, according to a Ministry of Defense announcement.

"Agni-V will be the last link in the chain of land-based deterrence vis a vis China as at present India cannot pose a viable threat to major Chinese counter value targets such as large cities," said*Rahul Bhonsle, a defense analyst and retired Indian Army brigadier and defense analyst. "This will certainly place the country at par with the Chinese as well as other major missile powers such as the United States and Russia to some extent. Thus India enters the exclusive intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) club."*

*"India had strategically delayed the testing of 5000 kilometres range Agni-V for one year to ensure a seat in the Missile Control Technology Regime (MTCR) which it got in July this year," said a senior MoD official who requested anonymity.

The fourth test of Agni-V missile was first scheduled for December 2015 which was postponed to January 2016 and then to March 2016 and then rescheduled because of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to US*in June this year.

The first test of this missile was conducted on April 19, 2012, the second test was carried out on September 15, 2013 and the third on January 31,*2015 from the same base. The surface-to-surface Agni-V missile is seven meters long and can carry a nuclear warhead of more than one ton.

A DRDO scientist further noted that there is also a proposal to develop Agni-VI missile with a range of over 10,000 kilometers, but the status of the project is not known.

India has already inducted the homemade nuclear capable Agni-I with a range of 700 kilometers, Agni-II with a range of 2000 kilometers,3000 kilometers range Agni-III missile The 4000 kilometers range Agni-IV missile is in user trial stage.

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/12/27/2016122700498.html

India Tests Long-Range Nuclear Missile that Can Hit Targets in China

VOA News
December 27, 2016 08:18

India has successfully carried out a fourth test of its nuclear-capable, intercontinental Agni-V missile, which can hit targets more than 5,000 kilometers away, effectively putting China's northernmost areas within range of Indian nuclear weapons.

The 17.5-meter-long, 50-ton surface-to-surface missile was test fired Monday from Abdul Kalam Island, off the coast of the eastern Odisha state, and splashed down near Australian waters.
Ajay Lele, at New Delhi's Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, says the test ensured the Agni-V missile is operational.

"After this, the missile will be handed over for the operationalization of it to India's strategic forces command and they will undertake two tests and subsequently the missile will come into India's armory," said Lele.

Earlier generations of Agni missiles, developed over the last decade, are capable of striking anywhere in Pakistan, India's neighbor and South Asian rival. The two countries have fought three wars and tensions continue to run high. Pakistan also possesses nuclear weapons.

Defense analysts say the longer-range Agni-V missile has been developed with an eye on China, which New Delhi also views as a threat.

India and China fought a brief war in 1962 and have an unresolved boundary dispute in the Himalayas. New Delhi also remains wary of China's close ties with Islamabad and bid to increase its influence in the Indian Ocean.

The Agni missile adds considerable heft to India's nuclear capability and its aspirations to be viewed as a regional power. Only China, France, Russia the United States and Britain have long-range nuclear weapons.

Scientists said the latest missile incorporates new technology for navigation and guidance.

Indian leaders welcomed the successful test of the Agni, which means "fire" in Hindi and Sanskrit.Congratulating the scientists, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted that the "uccessful test firing of Agni-V makes every Indian very proud. It will add tremendous strength to our strategic defense."

The missile was launched from a mobile platform, which gives the armed forces flexibility to transport and fire it swiftly from anywhere they want.

However, Lele noted that India's nuclear doctrine emphasizes a "no-first-use" policy and that New Delhi's official position is that its nuclear deterrence is not country-specific.
"It is essentially to make a point that yes, we have a sufficient amount of arsenal. If somebody attacks us by using nuclear weapons, we can respond effectively," he said.

---

http://gulfnews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1011011!/images11/3982738877.jpg

https://itextbook-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/book_image/image/3597/811.jpeg

http://img1.techtree.com/sites/default/files/news/2012/4/Agni-V-range.jpg


From India Today 24 hours ago....

http://media2.intoday.in/indiatoday/images/stories//2016December/agni_gfx__122616011918.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/z52YeKk.jpg

Compared to PRC systems....

http://index.heritage.org/military/...ary-power-index-2015-china-missile-ranges.png

http://static5.businessinsider.com/...782/screen shot 2015-05-11 at 11.58.41 am.png

http://centreright.in/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/112513_1156_2.jpg

https://fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/images/chinaproj1.jpg

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.voanews.com/a/defector-north-korea-has-big-nuclear-plans/3653735.html

Defector: North Korea has Big Nuclear Plans

December 28, 2016 1:35 AM
VOA News

Next year will be the most opportune time for North Korea to bolster its nuclear program because of upcoming leadership changes in the United States and South Korea, according to a senior North Korean official who defected recently to the South.

"With South Korea holding presidential elections and the U.S. undergoing an administration transition, the North sees 2017 as the prime time for nuclear development," said Thae Yong-ho, who was North Korea's second highest ranking diplomat in London.

Thae defected to South Korea in August, becoming the most senior North Korean official to defect in almost 20 years.

At a news conference Tuesday with South Korean reporters, Thae made clear he was not aware of the status of North Korea's nuclear program but expressed confidence that China would not severely discipline North Korea for its nuclear program because the North's disintegration could produce a combined U.S.-friendly Korea.

Thae said North Korean leader Kim Jung Un has no plans to relinquish his country's nuclear weapons even if he is offered large sums of money. The exiled diplomat said Kim is expediting the country's nuclear development program with the intent of possessing nuclear weapons by the end of next year.

North Korea conducted two nuclear tests this year and fired over 20 ballistic missiles. And it publicly promised to develop the ability to strike the United States with a nuclear weapon.

President-elect Donald Trump has said he favors the manufacture of nuclear weapons by Japan and South Korea as a deterrent to North Korea, a position that prompted a sharp response from the administration of President Barack Obama, which has supported a decades-old policy of nonproliferation.

Donald Trump will assume control of the executive branch of the U.S. government on January 20 and South Korea will hold a presidential election next year. Thae predicted North Korea will attempt to open dialog with the two new administrations in an attempt to obtain nuclear power status. In the meantime, Thae said, North Korea will continue to conduct nuclear tests in an effort to discourage South Korea's and Washington's sanctions-oriented policy toward North Korea.

U.S. National Intelligence Director James Clapper said in October that convincing North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons is futile.

"They are under siege and they are very paranoid. So the notion of giving up their nuclear capability, whatever it is, is a nonstarter with them," Clapper said in a speech before the Council of Foreign Relations.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/28/middleeast/syria-ceasefire-russia-turkey/index.html

Turkey and Russia agree on draft Syria ceasefire, report says

By Angela Dewan and Onur Cakir, CNN
Updated 6:06 AM ET, Wed December 28, 2016

Video

Istanbul, Turkey (CNN)Turkey and Russia have reportedly agreed on a draft nationwide ceasefire in Syria, the Turkish state-run news agency Anadolu said Wednesday.

The report cited an unnamed source saying that Ankara and Moscow would try to bring a ceasefire into effect at midnight.

It was not immediately clear if any of the Syrian rebel groups were aware of the draft plan. CNN has contacted all parties for comment.

The Anadolu report said that unspecified "terrorist organizations" would be excluded from the deal. In past agreements, "terrorist organizations" have included ISIS and the Al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra.

Political negotiations?

A successful nationwide ceasefire hinges on many fighting factions laying down arms -- forces from Iraq, Iran and Lebanon are also fighting alongside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Some rebel groups have been openly armed and supported by the United States and Turkey, and sectarian divisions still run deep in Syria.

Many attempts at ceasefires have crumbled over the years.

If the ceasefire succeeds, the regime and the opposition parties will start political negotiations led by Turkey and Russia in the Kazakhstan capital, Astana, the Anadolu report said.

A turning point

The Turkey-Russia draft ceasefire comes six days after Syrian regime forces regained control of the key city of Aleppo -- a major turning point in the country's civil war that has raged for nearly six years and has killed an estimated 400,000 people.

Tens of thousands of civilians and rebels were evacuated from the city's east under several deals brokered by Turkey and Russia.

Rebels had held eastern Aleppo for more than four years, and losing the territory has made a military an political opposition to the Assad regime less likely, analysts have said.

After the regime seized Aleppo, Russian President Vladimir Putin had said that a nationwide ceasefire was the next step in resolving the war.

Iran also expressed willingness to play a part in brokering a ceasefire last week in Moscow after talks with Russian and Turkish officials.

Russia and Turkey are wielding increasing influence over Syria's fate, as the UN Security Council failed several times to find a political solution to end the brutal war.

Video

Russia shot down at least seven UN resolutions on Syria using its veto power as a permanent member of the Council. China vetoed six of those seven. Many of them were aimed at getting desperately needed aid into Aleppo.

Turkey has insisted on playing a significant role in negotiations as it hopes to keep any territorial gains by Kurdish forces far from its border with the war-torn country.

Russia has been the closest and most powerful ally of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. It has carried out airstrikes against rebel groups opposed to the leader's regime since September 2015.

CNN's Onur Cakir reported from Istanbul and Angela Dewan wrote from London. Marilia Brocchetto and Eyad Kourdi contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-usa-idUSKBN14G0K0

WORLD NEWS | Tue Dec 27, 2016 | 6:14pm EST

Russia calls U.S. move to better arm Syrian rebels a 'hostile act'

By Andrew Osborn | MOSCOW
Russia said on Tuesday that a U.S. decision to ease restrictions on arming Syrian rebels had opened the way for deliveries of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, a move it said would directly threaten Russian forces in Syria.

Moscow last year launched a campaign of air strikes in Syria to help President Bashar al-Assad and his forces retake territory lost to rebels, some of whom are supported by the United States.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the policy change easing restrictions on weapons supplies had been set out in a new U.S. defense spending bill and that Moscow regarded the step as a hostile act.

U.S. President Barack Obama, who has been sharply critical of Russia's intervention in Syria, signed the annual defense policy bill into law last week.

State Department spokesman Mark Toner dismissed the Russian charges, saying the administration remains opposed to providing portable anti-aircraft missiles, or MANPADS, to Syrian opposition groups.

"Our position on MANPADS has not changed. We have a very deep concern about that kind of weaponry getting into Syria," Toner said, referring to fears that portable anti-aircraft missiles could end up in the hands of Islamist militants and be used against civilian airliners.

The National Defense Authorization Act, signed into law by Obama on Dec. 23, appears designed to assuage the administration's misgivings but imposes a new layer of congressional oversight on any presidential decision to provide them.

A provision bars the U.S. Defense Department from spending funds on MANPADS for Syrian rebel groups until the secretaries of state and defense submit a report to congressional committees explaining the decision to do so.

The report would have to include which groups would receive the weapons, intelligence analyses on the groups and the kinds and numbers of MANPADS to be supplied.

Moscow cast the bill as lifting restrictions on the provision of such weapons to Syrian rebels.

"Washington has placed its bets on supplying military aid to anti-government forces who don't differ than much from blood thirsty head choppers. Now, the possibility of supplying them with weapons, including mobile anti-aircraft complexes, has been written into this new bill," Zakharova said in a statement.

"In the administration of B. Obama they must understand that any weapons handed over will quickly end up in the hands of jihadists," she added, saying that perhaps that was what the White House was counting on happening.

The U.S. decision was a direct threat to the Russian air force, to other Russian military personnel, and to Russia's embassy in Damascus, said Zakharova.

"We therefore view the step as a hostile act."

Zakharova accused the Obama administration of trying to "put a mine" under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump by attempting to get it to continue what she called Washington's "anti-Russian line."

The Obama administration has in recent weeks expanded the list of Russians affected by U.S. sanctions imposed on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine.

Trump, during his election campaign, said he was keen to try to improve relations with Moscow and spoke positively about President Vladimir Putin's leadership skills.

A back-and-forth exchange between Trump and Putin over nuclear weapons last week tested the Republican's promises to improve relations with Russia however.

The Obama administration and U.S. intelligence officials have accused Russia of trying to interfere with the U.S. election by hacking Democratic Party accounts.

"The current occupants of the White House imagined that they could pressure Russia," said Zakharova. "Let's hope that those who replace them will be wiser."

(Additional reporting by Peter Hobson in Moscow and Tom Perry in Beirut and Jonathan Landay and Lesley Wroughton in Washington; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky and Alan Crosby)

RELATED COVERAGE

Russia says Syrian government and opposition in talks
U.S. says not providing portable missiles to Syrian rebels
Syrian opposition urges rebels to cooperate in ceasefire efforts
Iran says could send military advisors to Syria's Aleppo if needed - RIA
U.S.-backed force in Syria advances towards IS-held dam

 

[Doomer Doug]

Both Turkey and the Kurds are making moves to permanently seize land in both Syria and Iraq.

The Kurds are now refusing to withdraw from Mosul and plan to take it over. Further, Turkey is now engaged in a massive military buildup in Northern Syria which will bring it into direct conflict with the Syrian Peshmerga forces.

The link is here.

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/271220162

Peshmerga are in their homeland, won’t hand over territory, says commander
By Rudaw yesterday at 09:20




ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – There is no agreement between Erbil and Baghdad regarding Peshmerga withdrawal from areas the Kurdish forces liberated after the launch of the Mosul operation on October 17, a senior Kurdish commander said in response to remarks made by the spokesperson for the Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi force.


“Where should Peshmerga go?” Kamal Kirkuki told Rudaw on Tuesday. “Peshmerga are in their homeland. We are going nowhere.”

Ahmad al-Asadi from the Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi who are fighting ISIS west of Mosul as part of the military operation, told Irani Mehr News agency on Sunday that Baghdad and Erbil had agreed to the withdrawal of Peshmerga forces from liberated areas after the defeat of ISIS.

“There is an agreement signed between the central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government, between brother Masoud Barzani and Dr. Haider al-Abadi which stipulates the withdrawal of the Kurdish forces after the liberation of Mosul to the areas where they were before the launch of the operation.”

Kirkuki said the Peshmerga would not withdraw and they have an obligation to save Kurdish areas from terrorists, now and in the future.

“We will not hand over the liberated areas to a defeated army,” he said in reference to the Iraqi army that retreated when ISIS militants swept through Mosul and northern Iraq in the summer of 2014.

In mid-November, Kurdish President Masoud Barzani said that an agreement was in place between his government, and the governments of Iraq and the United States that the Kurdish forces would not withdraw from lands they reclaimed from ISIS before the start of the Mosul operation.

“We have a deal with America, between the Pentagon and the Peshmerga ministry – and with the Iraqi government – that the defense lines before the Mosul operation are non-negotiable,” Barzani said in a speech in Bashiqa shortly after it was liberated by the Peshmerga.

“There will be no negotiations about territories liberated by Peshmerga before the Mosul offensive,” he stressed.

Regarding land that has come under Peshmerga control since October 17, these territories “will be left to locals to defend,” Barzani said. “Peshmerga will help where possible. We will not abandon you.”

“Our only goal is to protect the security of people in these areas and for the Peshmerga to back it. We will never ever again let you be displaced and you can count on us for that,” he said.

Kurdish authorities have said they have extended their territories by as much as 40 percent since 2014.

 

[Doomer Doug]

oops!

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13951008001217

Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:56
Syria: American, German, Bulgarian Arms Found in Terrorists' Positions in Aleppo City

TEHRAN (FNA)- A large volume of weapons, manufactured in the US, Germany and Bulgari, were discovered as Russian sappers were on a mine clearance mission in Eastern Aleppo, Commander of Russia’s International Mine Action Center Ivan Gromov disclosed on Wednesday.

"Ammunition and large-caliber arms together with rockets for Grad multiple launch systems have been found there. The shells have been produced in Germany, the United States and Bulgaria," Gromov said.

The Russian combat engineers also found 122mm mortar shells, rockets for multiple launch rocket systems, hand grenades, grenade launchers and howitzer projectiles in one of the militants’ headquarters, the commander said, adding that the ammunition discovered there were in such a large quantity that they would be enough for a battalion.

A Russian General disclosed on Tuesday that a large volume of Turkey and US-made chemicals and weapons had been discovered in militants' bases in Eastern Aleppo.

"Engineering units of the Syrian and Russian forces that were jointly defusing bombs and mines planted by Jeish al-Fatah terrorists in the Eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo seized a large volume of US-made and Turkey-made weapons in the positions of militants," the Russian General said.

The engineering units also found hand-made arms in terrorists' bases, he added.

"A large number of bags filled with chemicals were also found in the positions of the terrorists" the source said, adding, "The terrorists had used chemicals to make bombs."

The General went on to say that the engineering units also found a workshop in which the terrorist groups were making bombs by gas cylinders.

The Russian and Syrian units also found a large quantity of suicide-explosive belts, the General said, adding, "The terrorist groups have planted bombs in hidden locations in residential areas, neighborhoods and streets."

 

[mzkitty]

9m
Russian President Vladimir Putin says agreement reached on Syrian ceasefire with Russia and Turkey acting as guarantors - @PA


7m
More: Putin says the Syrian government and rebels have signed a truce deal and are ready to begin peace talks - Reuters
End of alert

 

[mzkitty]

3m
Russian president Vladimir Putin has announced a 'reduction; of Russian forces in Syria following the announcement of a ceasefire - @SkyNewsBreak

 

[mzkitty]

1m
Syrian military agree to nationwide ceasefire starting at midnight - @PA

 

[Housecarl]

35 Russian Diplomats Expelled From The US
Started by*Marthanoirý,*Today*11:06 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?508801-35-Russian-Diplomats-Expelled-From-The-US/page3

Circle January 15th: 70 Nations Will Gather In Paris To Discuss The Creation Of A Palestin
Started by*Lurkerý,*Yesterday*12:00 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...s-To-Discuss-The-Creation-Of-A-Palestin/page2

Obama under pressure to prove Russian interference in election
Started by*Be Wellý,*Today*02:15 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ure-to-prove-Russian-interference-in-election

Socialist Military Profiting from Starving Venezuelans by Selling Food at 100x Regulated
Started by*China Connectioný,*Today*02:59 PM
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Obama Set To Announce Economic Sanctions And "Covert Cyber Ops" Against Russia For "Electi
Started by*BetterLateThanNeverý,*12-27-2016*05:51 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...Ops-quot-Against-Russia-For-quot-Electi/page2

Russia "Tired Of Obama Lies About Hackers", Vows Response To Any New Sanctions
Started by*BetterLateThanNeverý,*Yesterday*01:33 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ckers-quot-Vows-Response-To-Any-New-Sanctions

Putin Announces Syrian Ceasefire Deal, Ready To Start Peace Talks; Obama Snubbed Again
Started by*BetterLateThanNeverý,*Today*05:24 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...eady-To-Start-Peace-Talks-Obama-Snubbed-Again

Russia: Mass Graves Full Of Tortured Civilians Discovered In Aleppo
Started by*BetterLateThanNeverý,*Today*08:01 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ll-Of-Tortured-Civilians-Discovered-In-Aleppo

Spanish Military Report: Islamic Terrorists Operate, Raise Cash in Latin America to Attack
Started by*Medical Mavený,*Today*08:24 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...Operate-Raise-Cash-in-Latin-America-to-Attack

Sorry folks, I've been working some "interesting hours" of late and my posting opportunities have thus been a bit more limited.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/12/28/stratfor_2017_annual_forecast_110556.html

Stratfor 2017 Annual Forecast

By Stratfor
December 28, 2016

The convulsions to come in 2017 are the political manifestations of much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, the trend of aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it. China's economic slowdown and its ongoing evolution compound this dynamic. At the same time the world is trying to cope with reduced Chinese demand after decades of record growth, China is also slowly but surely moving its own economy up the value chain to produce and assemble many of the inputs it once imported, with the intent of increasingly selling to itself. All these forces combined will have a dramatic and*enduring impact on the global economy*and ultimately on the shape of the international system for decades to come.

These long-arching trends*tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.*

Only, the global superpower is not feeling all that super. In fact, it's tired. It was roused in 2001 by a devastating attack on its soil, it overextended itself in wars in the Islamic world, and it now wants to get back to repairing things at home. Indeed, the main theme of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.

Barack Obama already set this trend in motion, of course. Under his presidency, the United States exercised extreme restraint in the Middle East while trying to focus on longer-term challenges — a strategy that, at times, worked to Obama's detriment, as evidenced by the rise of the Islamic State. The main difference between the Obama doctrine and*the beginnings of the Trump doctrine*is that Obama still believed in collective security and trade as mechanisms to maintain global order; Trump believes the institutions that govern international relations are at best flawed and at worst constrictive of U.S. interests.

No matter the approach, retrenchment is easier said than done for a global superpower. As Woodrow Wilson said, "Americans are participants, like it or not, in the life of the world." The words of America's icon of idealism ring true*even as realism is tightening its embrace*on the world.

Revising trade relationships the way Washington intends to, for example, may have been feasible a couple decades ago. But that is no longer tenable in the current and evolving global order*where technological advancements in manufacturing*are proceeding apace and where economies, large and small, have been tightly interlocked in global supply chains. This means that the United States is not going to be able to make sweeping and sudden changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement. In fact, even if the trade deal is renegotiated, North America will still have tighter trade relations in the long term.

The United States will, however, have more space to selectively impose trade barriers with China, particularly in the metals sector. And the risk of a rising trade spat with Beijing will reverberate far and wide.*Washington's willingness to question the "One China" policy*– something it did to extract trade concessions from China – will come at a cost: Beijing will pull its own trade and security levers that will inevitably draw the United States into the Pacific theater.

But the timing isn't right for a trade dispute. Trump would rather focus on matters at home, and Chinese President Xi Jinping would rather focus on consolidating political power ahead of the 19th Party Congress. And so economic stability will take priority over reform and restructuring. This means Beijing will expand credit and state-led investment, even if those tools are growing duller and raising China's corporate debt levels to dangerous heights.

This will be*a critical year for Europe. Elections in the pillars of the European Union — France and Germany — as well as potential elections in the third largest eurozone economy — Italy — will affect one another and threaten the very existence of the eurozone. As we have been writing for years, the European Union will eventually dissolve. The question for 2017 is to what degree these elections expedite its dissolution. Whether moderates or extremists claim victory in 2017, Europe will still be hurtling toward a breakup into regional blocs.

European divisions will present a golden opportunity for the Russians. Russia will be able to crack European unity on sanctions in 2017 and will have more room to consolidate influence in its borderlands. The Trump administration may also be more amenable to easing sanctions and to some cooperation in Syria as it tries to de-escalate the conflict with Moscow. But there will be limits to the reconciliation. Russia will continue to bolster its defenses and create leverage in multiple theaters, from cyberspace to the Middle East. The United States, for its part, will continue to try to contain Russian expansion.

As part of that strategy, Russia will continue to play spoiler and peacemaker in the Middle East to bargain with the West. While a Syrian peace settlement will remain elusive, Russia will keep close to Tehran as U.S.-Iran relations deteriorate. The Iran nuclear deal will be challenged on a number of fronts as Iran enters an election year and as the incoming U.S. government takes a much more hard-line approach on Iran. Still, mutual interests will keep the framework of the deal in place and will discourage either side from clashing in places such as the Strait of Hormuz.

The competition between Iran and Turkey will meanwhile escalate in northern Syria and in northern Iraq. Turkey will focus on establishing*its sphere of influence*and containing Kurdish separatism while Iran tries to defend its own sphere of influence. As military operations degrade the Islamic State in 2017, the ensuing scramble for territory, resources and influence will intensify among the local and regional stakeholders. But as the Islamic State weakens militarily, it will employ insurgent and terrorist tactics and encourage resourceful grassroots attacks abroad.

The Islamic State is not the only jihadist group to be concerned about. With the spotlight on Islamic State, al Qaeda has also been quietly rebuilding itself in places such as North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, and the group is likely to be more active in 2017.

Crude oil prices will recover modestly in 2017, thanks in part to the deal struck by most of the world's oil producers. (Notably, no country will fully abide by the reduction requirements.) The pace of recovery for North American shale production will be the primary factor influencing Saudi Arabia's policy on extending and increasing production cuts next year. And though it will take time for North American producers to respond to the price recovery and to raise production, Saudi Arabia knows that a substantial rise in oil prices is unlikely. This means Saudi Arabia will actively intervene in the markets in 2017 to keep the economy on course for a rebalance in supply, especially in light of its plan to sell 5 percent of Saudi Aramco shares in 2018.

Higher oil prices will be a welcome relief to the world's producers, but it may be too little, too late for a country as troubled as Venezuela. The threat of default looms, and severe cuts to imports of basic goods to make debt payments will drive social unrest and expose already deep fault lines among the ruling party and armed forces.

Developed markets will also see a marked shift in 2017, a year in which inflation returns. This will cause central banks to abandon unconventional policies and employ measures of monetary tightening. The days of central banks flooding the markets with cash are coming to an end. The burden will now fall to officials who craft fiscal policy, and government spending will replace printing money as the primary engine of economic growth.

Tightening monetary policy in the United States and a strong U.S. dollar will shake the global economy in the early part of 2017. The countries most affected will be those in the emerging markets with high dollar-denominated debt exposure. That list includes Venezuela, Turkey, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Chile, Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia. Downward pressure on the yuan and steadily declining foreign exchange reserves will meanwhile compel China to increase controls over capital outflows.

Calm as markets have been recently, steadied as they were by ample liquidity and by muted responses to political upheaval, they will be much more volatile in 2017. With all the tumult in 2017, from the threats to the eurozone to escalating trade disputes, investors could react dramatically. Asset prices swung noticeably, albeit quickly, in the first two months of 2016. 2017 could easily see multiple such episodes.

The United States is pulling away from its global trade initiatives while the United Kingdom, a major free trade advocate, is losing influence in an increasingly protectionist Europe. Global trade growth will likely remain strained overall, but export-dependent countries such as China and Mexico will also be more motivated to protect their relationships with suppliers and seek out additional markets. Larger trade deals will continue to be replaced by smaller, less ambitious deals negotiated between countries and blocs. After all, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership were themselves fragments spun from the breakdown of the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization.

Economic frustration can manifest in many ways, not all of which are foreboding.* In Japan, the government will be in a strong position in 2017 to try to implement critical reforms and adapt its aging population to shifting global conditions. In Brazil and India, efforts to expose and combat corruption will maintain their momentum. India has even taken the ambitious step of setting its economy*down a path of demonetization. The path will be bumpy in 2017, but India will be a critical case study for other countries, developed and developing alike, enticed by the efficiencies and decriminalized benefits of a cashless economy and who increasingly have the technology at their disposal to entertain the possibility.

EAST ASIA FORECAST: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/2017-annual-forecast-east-asia/east-asia

EURASIA FORECAST: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/2017-annual-forecast-eurasia/eurasia

EUROPE FORECAST: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/2017-annual-forecast-europe/europe

LATIN AMERICA FORECAST: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/2017-annual-forecast-latin-america/latin-america

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FORECAST: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/2...and-north-africa/middle-east-and-north-africa

SOUTH ASIA FORECAST: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/2017-annual-forecast-south-asia/south-asia

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FORECAST: https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/2017-annual-forecast-sub-saharan-africa/sub-saharan-africa


This article appeared originally at Stratfor.

Related Topics: World In 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, North Africa, Middle East, Latin America, Europe, Eurasia, East Asia, 2017, China, Ongoing Evolution Compound

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/29/asia/china-tibet/

Tibet: Tensions on the roof of the world

By Matt Rivers, CNN
Updated 2:06 PM ET, Thu December 29, 2016

Video

Lhasa, Tibet (CNN)It's dawn in Lhasa, Tibet, and the quiet is punctuated only by the gentle chanting of Buddhist pilgrims.

They pray outside the Jokhang temple, Tibetan Buddhism's holiest place.

Some prostrate themselves on the cool stone ground, while others walk clockwise around the temple, spinning hand-held prayer wheels.

The thick, sharp scent of incense hangs heavy in the air.

We're watching all this from the side, mere silent observers to rituals honed over hundreds of years.

More restricted than North Korea?

The early morning calm belies the region's tumultuous history.

The Communist government in Beijing has controlled Tibet since 1951. After a failed revolt against Chinese rule in 1959, the 14th Dalai Lama -- Tibet's spiritual leader -- fled to India.

Simmering defiance from Tibetans who remained sometimes boils over into large-scale riots.

Activists say more than 140 people have lit themselves on fire in protest of religious and cultural suppression since March of 2009.

It's a side of Tibet the Chinese government doesn't want outsiders to see. Beijing requires all foreign tourists to have permits and sometimes shuts down access for weeks at a time. It only rarely allows reporters to visit the region.

However, in early September, CNN was among a small group of journalists invited on a five-day, government-led trip to what China calls the Tibetan Autonomous Region.

It was the first time a CNN team had been allowed to visit Tibet since 2006. By comparison, CNN has been to North Korea, often referred to as the hermit kingdom, more than a dozen times in the same period.

We were allowed in only under the watchful eye of government minders, who packed our days with activities -- art classes, operas and an international tourism expo.

What we saw ... and didn't see

The lack of access to anything controversial or the ability to ask any real questions was a theme of our trip.

When we met Tibet's vice chairman, Penpa Tashi, the most senior official we encountered, we hoped to be able to pose some tougher questions.

Instead, we were forced to sit silently as he spoke for 80 uninterrupted minutes, talking about how everyone in Tibet is happy and content -- a picture in stark contrast to the one painted by human rights activists.

We also asked to visit a Buddhist monastery during our stop in Nyingchi, a town near the border with India, but were told there were none nearby.

A quick Google search brought up a Chinese state media article from just two weeks earlier, showing a photo spread from a monastery in the same area, a mere 15 miles (24 kilometers) from where we were.

We asked our minder about that too, and he simply shrugged and ignored our question.

All in all, Lhasa, Tibet's capital, felt like most other Chinese cities I've visited -- safe, busy and very much in Chinese control.

A tinderbox
For people who track daily life in Tibet, demonstrations of dissent are just a spark away from being reignited.

"Tibet is one of the regions in China where political oppression and religious oppression are at the highest point," says Nicholas Bequelin, East Asia Director at Amnesty International.

Much of the tension stems from concerns over the influx of Han Chinese -- China's dominant ethnic group -- into Tibet.

In 1964, there were just 39,500 Han Chinese in the remote region, just under 3% of the population, according to scholars. That figure now stands at 245,000, according to the 2010 census figures.

While this is less than 10% of the population, Han Chinese traders, workers and investors have mainly settled in Lhasa, where they control many businesses and fill better-paying jobs -- deepening resentment with Tibetans.

Nearly every shop we visited appeared to be owned by Han Chinese.

Economic inequality

The government has invested billions of dollars into transforming the region, focusing on building new infrastructure, schools, and modern medical facilities.

We saw a new multi-lane highway being built between Lhasa and Nyingchi.

As our mini-bus bounced over the existing road -- a muddy, potholed mess -- we envied what future travelers will drive on: the highway that will cut the nine-hour journey by half.

Many Tibetans are still extremely poor and welcome these improvements. But they have come at a cost. Traditional nomadic ways of life are beginning to disappear.
Others complain that ethnic Tibetans don't share equally in the benefits.

One afternoon in Lhasa, we left our minders behind during a lunch break, and wandered into some back streets not far from our hotel.

We met a 29-year-old Tibetan laborer who said he had never gone to school. He said he made more money than he used to and his neighborhood has paved roads. However, he complained that his Han co-workers got paid more than he did.

"When we are doing exactly the same work, the Han people get, say 300 kuai, and the Tibetans get 200 kuai," he said, using the colloquial term for China's currency.

It's an example of the dichotomy facing many Tibetans -- frustration over Chinese rule combined with a desire for an easier way of life.

Tibetan culture
Many Tibetans also feel their native culture is under threat as the number of Chinese tourists visiting the region's yak-filled grasslands and snowy peaks has surged.

This year, some 17 million tourists will have come, state media says, up from just a trickle a decade ago — although some have questioned whether the number is really that high. By 2020 authorities expect upwards of 35 million, according to officials we met.

Critics say locals are being marginalized, as the Chinese make money hand over fist using Tibetan culture as a selling point.

Western brands are also cashing in on the tourist influx, with new hotels like the InterContinental opening in Lhasa. Five-star hotels once steered clear of the area, fearful of the backlash from pro-Tibetan groups.

In Nyingchi, our minders took us to a newly built village, which will feature shops and restaurants with Tibetan facades. It's expected to open soon as a tourist attraction.

A Chinese company built it, and most of the stores that will be renting out space will be Chinese owned.

A Tibetan settlement stood on the site for many years, but villagers were forcibly relocated and given new apartments, according to the government official giving us the tour.

He added that the villagers would be allowed to sell biscuits and tea to the tourists if they wanted.

No space for dissent

CNN also spoke to La Mu, a Tibetan woman who has upgraded her small farmhouse and turned it into a guesthouse for tourists with the help of government subsidies. Government minders hovered behind us and took notes on her answers.

When asked if she thought all the development and Han migration was having a negative effect on Tibetan culture, she would only smile uncomfortably, and said she didn't know.

Her reticence at speaking openly is quite common in a place where activists say she could be swiftly questioned or jailed for voicing dissent.

Since 2012, Bequelin says upwards of 400 Tibetans have been detained for protesting over the lack of religious freedom and economic inequality -- including what some call the illegal Chinese extraction of minerals from lands considered holy to Tibetan Buddhism.

"The lack of space for any dissent, even peaceful, will continue to drive deep resentment within Tibetan society," he says.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/arti...il&utm_term=0_b02a5f1344-40ca020667-122460921

Cracks in the Union: Europe and the World in 2016

December 28, 2016 | Kaitlin Lavinder

Editor’s Note: Over the coming days, The Cipher Brief presents some of our most incisive coverage on key issues of 2016 and a look ahead at what is yet to come in 2017.

The tumultuous nature of 2016 hit Europe especially hard. Wars in the Middle East became a refugee crisis for Europe, and terrorist groups like the Islamic State roiled the continent. This insecurity, combined with growing discontent over economic repercussions for the “losers” of globalization, fueled the rise of populist parties. The continuing enigma of Russia, from its unchecked actions in Ukraine and Syria to the buildup of troops along its western border, divided Europe further; populist and “illiberal” parties of Europe generally support Russian President Vladimir Putin, while moderate parties have taken a strong stance against him – for example, by emphasizing deterrence through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Meanwhile, the United States in 2016 focused heavily on its own political issues, namely the presidential election, rather than worried about Europe’s political demise. The result: a fragile European Union (EU) that is divided politically, economically, and feeling ever more insecure.

The Refugee Crisis

The refugee crisis brought Europe’s stark divisions to light. In 2015, more than 885,000 migrants arrived in Greece and nearly 154,000 landed in Italy, according to Frontex data. Many of these new arrivals fled from wars in the Middle East, particularly Syria. Last year, more than 1.3 million asylum applications were registered in EU and Schengen-associated countries (states that are part of Europe’s free movement Schengen Area but not part of the EU).

2016 brought the aftermath of those arrivals in Europe – all while more continued to knock on the doors of the Union. The influx of migrants caused polar reactions from EU member states: on the one hand, welcome any migrant who crosses the border, and on the other, erect physical barriers to keep migrants out.

Germany is the prime example of the former. The country, under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel, absorbed more than one million migrants in 2015 and, according to the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, expects as many as 300,000 more this year – far more than any other European country.

Hungary is a prominent example of the latter; it completed the construction of a fence on its border with Serbia – a key route for migrants coming from the Middle East – in September 2015. Hungary is also challenging an earlier one-off EU regulation to help Greece and Italy by distributing refugees throughout the continent. In October this year, Hungarians voted in a referendum against mandatory migrant quotas proposed by the EU in its reform of the Common European Asylum System (although the referendum was not legally binding due to low voter turnout).

To justify its position, Hungary and other like-minded countries point to a handful of asylum seekers who are now implicated in a recent wave of terror attacks across Europe. Because so many refugees entered Europe so quickly in 2015, many countries – Germany included – failed to properly vet and/or process them. 2016 felt the consequences.

Europe: A Terror Target

Europe’s latest experience with terror – the attack on a Berlin Christmas market on December 19 – was, according to German authorities, carried out by a rejected asylum seeker from Tunisia. The suspect, Anis Amri, appears to have arrived in Germany in July 2015. He was not deported after his asylum application was denied, even though he was on law enforcement’s radar.

This July, Germany experienced a wave of four attacks – three committed by refugees. On July 18, an asylum seeker from Pakistan used a knife to attack people on a train near Würzburg. On July 24, a 21-year-old asylum-seeker from Syria – who was known to police – killed a woman and injured two others with a machete in the southern German town of Reutlingen. And just a few hours later, a 27-year-old Syrian refugee –*who authorities say had been denied asylum a year ago but was allowed to stay in Germany because of the ongoing war in Syria –*killed himself and injured 12 others after setting off an explosive device in Ansbach, Germany.

A number of other major attacks rocked Europe this year – from the Brussels bombings in March that left at least 35 people dead and hundreds injured, to the July attack in Nice, France, where a truck driver plowed through a crowd during Bastille Day celebrations, killing more than 80 and injuring more than 400.

These attacks have proved ample fodder for European populist parties that continue to gain ground at the polls.

Populism Proliferates

In a statement following the Berlin Christmas market attack, the chairwoman of Germany’s right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Frauke Petry, said, “The radical Islamic terror has hit us right in the middle of Germany. […] It is not only an attack on our freedom and our way of life but on our Christian tradition. Germany is a country which is divided over the immigration question. But the terror will bring us together. These terrorists are godless people.”

The AfD has gained substantial ground since its founding in 2013 and is now represented in 10 of the 16 German state parliaments. It is expected to perform relatively well in Germany’s 2017 federal elections, amongst a populace that is largely dissatisfied with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “open arms” policy toward refugees.

France’s right-wing Front Nationale (FN), led by Marine Le Pen, has similarly used terror for political fuel. After the massive attacks in Paris in November 2015, that left at least 130 people dead, FN issued a statement claiming one of the attackers entered Greece among a mass migrant flow and, “as a precaution, Marine Le Pen calls for the immediate halt of all intake of migrants in France.” Florian Philippot, a close advisor to Le Pen, commented, “It is irresponsible to continue this welcoming of migrants.”

A study published this September by research center ELABE finds Le Pen will likely make it to the second round of the 2017 French presidential election with 25 – 28 percent of the vote.

Brexit

The 2016 populist wave scored a major victory in the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU – a move advocated by Britain’s right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP). By a vote of 51.9 to 48.1 percent, a majority of UK voters decided in a referendum this June to pull out of the EU – shocking then-Prime Minister David Cameron and other transatlantic leaders.*

In a statement after the vote, the EU’s six founding member nations said, “The Foreign Ministers of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands take note with regret of the fact that the British people have spoken out against EU Membership. […] we strongly reaffirm our joint commitment to the European Union.”

In a call with German Chancellor Merkel the day after the vote, the White House reported both Merkel and Obama “said they regretted the decision.”

An apparent beneficiary of the vote, however, is Europe’s eastern neighbor. Russian President Vladimir Putin has long attempted to destabilize the EU, and NATO along with it. Now, with Brexit, the EU will lose one of the strongest supporters of its sanctions against Russia for the war in Ukraine – potentially tipping the balance of power toward EU member states that disagree with sanctions and would like to see closer ties with Russia, including Hungary and Slovakia.

Under the Gaze of Russia, Whither NATO?

The Russian question has the potential to exacerbate Europe’s divisions, particularly vis-à-vis*NATO. At the Alliance’s Warsaw Summit this July, NATO members stressed the necessity of both deterrence and dialogue in dealing with Russian aggression. The former topped the agenda, with the announcement of the deployment of one rotational battalion to each of the Baltic nations – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania – and Poland. Three of the four countries leading these battalions are either non-EU (U.S. and Canada) or planning to exit the EU (Britain).

The other battalion lead is Germany. Deputy Director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Jeffrey Rathke told The Cipher Brief, “It is significant that Germany, which has always placed an emphasis on the balance and complementarity of deterrence and defense on the one hand and political dialogue on the other hand, has taken this step.”*While Germany and the Baltic states are leaning toward deterrence, other EU and NATO states – Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, for example – lean toward dialogue.

It is no surprise that the dialogue-prone, more Russia-friendly states fall significantly below the defense spending goal of two percent of GDP that NATO has set for all members. NATO’s 2016 estimate of defense expenditures is 1.01 percent for Hungary, 1.04 percent for the Czech Republic, and 1.16 percent for Slovakia. Estonia, on the other hand, is expected to exceed NATO’s two percent spending goal, for the second year in a row. Latvia and Lithuania are expected to reach near 1.5 percent, a sharp increase from the just over 1.0 percent both countries contributed last year.

The NATO defense spending debate was prevalent during Obama’s time in office, but not particularly enforced. The Donald Trump Administration, however, may prove more resolute. On the campaign trail this year, President-elect Trump said he would defend NATO allies against a Russian invasion only if those countries have “fulfilled their obligations to us.”

Europe & Trump

There could be a silver lining to Trump’s NATO rhetoric: The risk of the U.S. not abiding by Article 5, which says an attack on a NATO ally is an attack on all members and thus demands collective defense, could finally pressure European under-contributors to take more responsibility for their own defense, and meet the two percent spending target. A stronger and more capable Europe is good for both the continent’s security and that of the United States.

Still, Europe in 2017 may be just as fractured as in 2016, especially with Trump taking power in the United States. Mathew Burrows, Director of the Strategic Foresight Initiative at the Atlantic Council and a Cipher Brief expert, explains, “For the first time, a U.S. President-elect is opposing the EU […] A big question going forward is how much backing Trump will give [far-right European political leaders] Wilders or Le Pen once he is officially in the White House. Open support could help shift the electoral balance in their favor, but constitute an unprecedented affront to other European leaders who support the EU. Even if Trump forbears, there’s enough suspicion of where his true feelings lie that transatlantic relations will be difficult.”
After a rough year, Europe has its work cut out for it in 2017. *

Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/would-south-korea-really-go-nuclear/

Would South Korea Really Go Nuclear?

Only if Donald Trump seriously undermines the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

By Lami Kim
December 30, 2016
*****
Since Donald Trump won the presidential election last month, concerns over a nuclear South Korea have intensified. Although President-elect Trump reassured President Park Geun-hye of the U.S. security commitment to South Korea, a strong fear of abandonment has arisen in South Korea in light of Trump’s campaign statements. When South Korea feared*U.S. disengagement from Asia in the early 1970s, it responded by attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Today, the prospect of a nuclear South Korea, unthinkable since the 1970s, is more real than ever. The recent impeachment of Park by the National Assembly earlier this month adds to uncertainty for South Korea’s security policies. Could the next administration pursue nuclear weapons as a result of these fears?

The answer will heavily depend on whether the Trump administration reaffirms the strength of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Otherwise, it is anyone’s guess what the policies of the next president will be, which could include “going nuclear.”

Until recently, calls for nuclear armament were considered extremist in South Korean political discourse. However, public support for nuclear armament is growing in South Korea due to North Korea’s nuclear provocations. In a recent Gallup Korea poll, 58*percent supported nuclear armament. If the U.S. security guarantee is not credible in the minds of South Koreans, and nuclear armament is the only way to defend South Korea’s security from North Korea, a nuclear option will seem even more appealing to the public.

Such public sentiment would affect the upcoming presidential election. Presidential candidates could appeal to populist sentiment and promise pursuit of nuclear weapons. At the minimum, they may pledge to acquire the ability to produce nuclear fissile materials (enriched uranium or plutonium) so that South Korea could minimize a future timetable for developing nuclear weapons. This would be a major blow to U.S. nonproliferation policy.

As long as the U.S. security guarantee is intact, nuclear proliferation in South Korea is not a rational choice, as the costs and risks seem to far outweigh the benefits. The security risks would be substantial. Should South Korea decide to go*nuclear, the United States would withdraw its security guarantee, while South Korea would require several years to acquire a functional nuclear arsenal. Unless Seoul could manage a covert nuclear weapons program, fooling its closest ally and the rest of the world, which seems highly unlikely given rigorous International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections over its nuclear facilities, going nuclear would in fact decease South Korea’s security rather than strengthening it.

The economic costs of nuclear armament are no less substantial. If South Korea’s fear of abandonment escalates under a Trump administration and the country reveals new nuclear weapons capabilities, the UN Security Council would impose economic sanctions on South Korea, which would damage the country’s highly trade-dependent economy. Electricity production, 40*percent of which derives from nuclear energy, would also be disrupted. South Korea imports a large portion of its nuclear fuel from the United States to operate its*25 nuclear reactors. The U.S.-South Korea civil nuclear agreement bans the use of U.S.-origin materials for military purposes. The breach of the agreement would lead to a suspension of U.S. export of nuclear fuels to South Korea. It*would be*difficult for South Korea to purchase enriched uranium from other suppliers, too, since international nuclear export*control regimes, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group, prohibit transferring nuclear materials to states that develop*nuclear weapons in violation of the Nonproliferation Treaty.*The suspension of the nuclear fuel supply would*cause economic and social distress in*this already energy-starved country.

Despite the negative consequences to pursuing a nuclear weapons program, the current political environment in South Korea, combined with Trump’s tough campaign rhetoric about the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, means that decades-old policies could shift radically overnight. How Trump values America’s security role in East Asia will strongly impact the next South Korean administration’s decision to challenge North Korea with nuclear weapons development of its own.

Lami Kim is a research fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University and a lecturer at Boston College.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/experts-north-korea-may-developing-171557172.html

Experts: North Korea May Be Developing a Dirty Bomb Drone

Kyle Mizokami
Popular Mechanics
December 29, 2016

From Popular Mechanics
A Korean think tank claims that North Korea is developing a drone capable of spreading lethal amounts of radioactivity over a wide area, sickening people and making areas unlivable. If true, the weapon is the latest in a series of nuclear or radiological weapons being developed by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's regime.

According to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency, Kim Jong-un may have begun to develop the drone in 2012, shortly after the death of his father Kim Il-sung. The Banghyun-5 drone, as it is supposedly called, is made of titanium and carbon composites and has a 900-liter fuel tank, allowing it to fly for up to 10 hours. The drone is designed to carry a payload of enriched uranium, which North Korea is believed to possess as a result of its nuclear weapons program.

Also known as a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD), a dirty bomb is not to be confused with a nuclear weapon. Instead, it uses conventional explosives such as TNT or dynamite to spread radioactive material over a wide area. The more powerful the explosive, the wider the contaminated area. Other dispersal means include aerosol sprays and crop-dusting planes.

A wide variety of radioactive isotopes are candidates for dirty bombs, including Americium-241, Californium-252, Cesium-137, Cobalt-60, Plutonium-238, and Strontium-90. Dirty bombs rarely have enough radioactive material to kill. Prolonged exposure may cause radiation sickness and elevate a person's long term chances of developing cancer but are not instantly lethal. They mostly create fear and panic due to public perceptions of radiation dangers.

Another byproduct of an RDD attack is seeding an area with radioactive fallout, making it dangerously uninhabitable-but easily avoided. The half life of some isotopes is in the hundreds of years, making an expensive and tedious cleanup necessary.

Now, this report should be taken with a grain of salt. Such a program would be a closely held state secret in North Korea, a notoriously inaccessible country. Titanium and carbon composites are also hard to manufacture. On the other hand, North Korea is known to have a great deal of interest in drones, and has repeatedly flown them over South Korea. Several drones have crashed in South Korea, including drones with photographs of the capital, Seoul, and the Blue House, the official residence of the South Korean president.

A radiological dispersal device drone would be an ideal weapon for North Korea's provocative attacks. The country's leadership periodically orders provocations-such as shelling an inhabited island with artillery or starting a gun battle at sea-in order to appear unstable. Attacking a South Korean park, building, or landmark (such as the Blue House) with the drone probably wouldn't trigger a war with Seoul but certainly would grab the attention of the international community.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/Afghanistan-India-and-Trump/article16950526.ece

The Hindu
Opinion

Afghanistan, India, and Trump

Rakesh Sood
December 28, 2016 00:12 IST
Updated: December 28, 2016 00:17 IST

Given his limited choices in stabilising Afghanistan, which include supporting a national election, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will find India to be a reliable and trusted partner in this process

On January 20, next year, Donald Trump will take over as the 45th President of the United States of America, at a time when the U.S. remains engaged in the longest war in its history — the war in Afghanistan. He will be the third President to deal with the war launched in 2001 by U.S. President George Bush and sought to be brought to a conclusion by his successor U.S. President Barack Obama.

Even though ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’ ended on December 28, 2014 implying an end to formal combat operations by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) forces, the U.S. still maintains approximately 9,800 troops as part of the international troop presence numbering over 12,000 under ‘Operation Resolute Support’. Primary responsibility for fighting the insurgency was transferred to the Afghan National Security Forces (consisting of the military and the police) two years ago but U.S. presence is essential to provide critical domain awareness, intelligence and surveillance support, air power and special forces.

For Mr. Bush, the war against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan was an integral part of his “war on terror”, launched on September 20, 2001. The U.S.-led effort enjoyed broad international support which continued even after Mr. Bush’s ill-conceived invasion in Iraq in 2003 in search of the non-existent weapons of mass destruction. The Iraq invasion however diluted Washington’s focus on the challenges it faced in Afghanistan.

In 2009, Mr. Obama drew a clear distinction between the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, describing the latter as “a war of necessity”, a “war that we (USA) have to win”. He ordered a troop surge in 2009 while simultaneously announcing the date for withdrawal of the U.S. from combat operations. This flawed decision may have been the result of domestic compulsions but it breathed fresh life into the insurgency.

Gains and losses

Much blood and treasure has been expended in Afghanistan. The U.S. alone has spent more than $800 billion in Afghanistan, of which $115 billion has been spent on reconstruction; more than the inflation adjusted expenditure under the Marshall Plan for rebuilding Europe after World War II at $105 billion! The ISAF (consisting of over 40 countries) suffered 3,500 fatal casualties during the last 15 years, with the U.S. bearing the largest loss at 2,400 lives. At the NATO summit in Warsaw earlier this year, it was agreed to maintain the current international troop presence till 2020 while providing annual financial support of $4.5 billion for the Afghan security forces.

It is clear that this is unlikely to bring about a material change in the situation in Afghanistan. In fact, casualties among the Afghan forces and civilians have risen rapidly in recent years. The total civilian casualties are estimated at 31,000; this year witnessed a spike. The Afghan security forces have suffered significant casualties, rising from 21,000 in 2014 to about 30,000 today.

Out of 408 districts, the government writ holds in 258 while 33 have come under the control of the insurgents, largely in the south. The remaining 116 districts are contested zones.

It is true that some progress has been registered. Life expectancy has gone up from 40 years in 2002 to 62 years today. From 9,00,000 boys in school then, the number of children in school is now more than 8 million, more than a third are girls. Literacy figures have gone up from 12 per cent to 34 per cent in 15 years. Today, with a median age of 18 years, Afghanistan has one of the youngest populations with 60 per cent of the population below 21 years of age. This progress can be sustained only if peace can be restored.

Different political approaches

Former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai realised early on that the key to restoring peace and stability in Afghanistan lay in Pakistan. He described the Taliban as “Pashtun brothers” and tried to improve relations with Pakistan. In many of his speeches, Mr. Karzai referred to India “as an old friend” and Pakistan as “a brother and conjoined twin”. The metaphor may not be apt — because half the conjoined twins are stillborn and an additional one-third die within 24 hours — but it does capture Pakistan’s critical role. Eventually, he became exasperated with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s rebuffs and tried, unsuccessfully, to open up his own channels for dialogue with the Quetta Shura, first with Mullah Obaidullah and then with Mullah Baradar, only to have them successively neutralised by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

Mr. Ghani went a step further. Having witnessed Mr. Karzai’s doomed efforts and conscious of the political fragility of his National Unity Government, he swallowed his pride and even called on the Pakistani Army chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif, at the GHQ, in Rawalpindi in 2014, a departure from protocol that raised many eyebrows. He tacitly accepted Pakistan’s demand that Afghanistan diminish the salience of its relationship with India, in the expectation that Pakistan would play a positive role to ensure political reconciliation. A new track was opened with the Quadrilateral Coordination Group consisting of Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the U.S. However, Mr. Ghani too felt betrayed when he learnt that the myth of Mullah Omar had been sustained for at least two years and despite his pleading, the ISI went ahead with the anointment of Mullah Mansour as the new Taliban leader. As insurgency grew, he publicly blamed Pakistan of sending “a message of war” when he had held out a hand of peace.

In their own fashion, both Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama saw the Pakistan problem but were content to manage the situation rather than push for a solution. Mr. Bush ensured the first round of peaceful elections in Afghanistan by laying down clear redlines for Gen. Musharraf but during his second term, he was preoccupied with Iraq. Mr. Obama tried diplomacy by appointing the high profile U.S. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke as Special Representative for AfPak but eventually decided that the best way for the U.S. to address the issue was to reduce its role and presence in Afghanistan. The Kerry-Lugar assistance package for Pakistan turned out to be more carrot than stick.

Pakistan’s overreach

Given a porous border with Afghanistan with tribal linkages cutting across the Durand Line, Pakistan’s legitimate interests can be understood as also the fact that it is critical to any political reconciliation in Afghanistan. However, what Pakistan has been seeking is to exercise a veto over Kabul’s relations with Delhi which the Afghans are unwilling to concede.

Pakistan’s policies towards both India and Afghanistan are determined primarily by the Army which sees India as an existential threat. Looking at its relations with Afghanistan through the India prism makes it inevitable that Pakistan can only have a relationship with Afghanistan that is mired in mistrust, suspicion and hostility. Since relations with India are unlikely to normalise in the foreseeable future, the only way out for Pakistan to play a constructive role in Afghanistan is to accept the idea of Afghan sovereignty and autonomy and refrain from making it a zone of India-Pakistan rivalry.

Unless Pakistan changes its attitude, political reconciliation in Afghanistan will remain unlikely. The Taliban today is a fractured lot, neither a Vietcong nor even a Hezbollah. Its fragmentation does not affect its ability to launch terrorist attacks in Afghanistan but certainly makes it more difficult to get it to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, the National Unity Government in Kabul is not a strong and united entity thereby reducing its negotiating space. All this diminishes Pakistan’s ability to deliver the Taliban too; it can ensure presence for a one-off meeting but lacks the political capital needed to underwrite the reconciliation process.

The challenge for Kabul is that it has to engage in multiple reconciliation processes — with the Taliban and with the Pakistani army. The hardline Taliban represented by the Haqqani network is determined to continue the fight militarily. However, even the more moderate who are willing to talk demand the exit of all foreign forces from Afghanistan. Not only could this bring about a collapse of the fragile coalition in Kabul but it would also reduce the international financial support which is critical to keep the government machinery working. Power sharing can be worked out, as demonstrated recently in the accord with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, but no government in Kabul can accept this Taliban redline.

The India factor

India has had the most effective economic cooperation programme, having spent more than $2 billion and committed another billion dollars earlier this year. Indians have also lost lives in deliberate attacks linked to the Haqqani group and the Lashkar-e-Taiba but this has not diminished the Indian role. It has only cemented Afghan-Indian relations which are now developing a military dimension. Never again will India be forced to close down its embassy in Kabul as it happened during the Taliban regime.

When President-elect Donald Trump takes charge, he will find that he has little choice in the matter. A complete withdrawal is out of question. His challenge will be to change the calculus of the Pakistani establishment, increase capabilities of the Afghan security forces to inflict attrition on the insurgents, and, in 2019, support an election in Afghanistan that brings about a more cohesive government. In all this, he will find the Narendra Modi government to be a reliable and trusted partner.

Rakesh Sood is a former Ambassador to Afghanistan and currently Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. E-mail: rakeshsood2001@yahoo.com

 

[Doomer Doug]

Well, Happy New Year, gang. Obama is clearly gone quite insane and is trying to trigger a war by January 20th, 2017. Sheesh, I see treason all around me, blatant, brazen and no longer care type treason.

Thank God Vlad the Impaler is shrugging off Obama's very, very dangerous moves. Otherwise I think DC would be a radioactive wasteland right now.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.janes.com/article/66613/china-s-carrier-replenishment-ship-begins-sea-trials

Sea Platforms

China's carrier replenishment ship begins sea trials

Andrew Tate, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
30 December 2016

The People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN's) new Type 901 replenishment ship commenced sea trials on 18 December, according to Chinese media.

The 45,000-tonne vessel, which was built at Guangzhou Shipyard International's Longxue shipyard on the Pearl River, is expected to provide logistics support to the PLAN's nascent carrier force.

Photographic evidence of the ship's construction emerged in late 2015, not long before it was launched on 15 December 2015. It is equipped with three gantries and a fourth high-point structure port side aft, configured with five hose rigs for liquid refuelling on the port side and four on the starboard side. The central gantry provides a transfer station for solids on each side.

The ability to have multiple hoses connected will enable the Type 901 to not only provide aviation fuel and fuel oil to the carrier simultaneously, but also minimise the duration of each replenishment serial: a potentially hazardous evolution which limits the carrier's manoeuvrability and precludes it from operating aircraft.

The Type 901 will be able to refuel a carrier from its port side and, when fully worked-up, the ship will also be able to simultaneously refuel one of the carrier's destroyer/frigate escorts on its starboard side.

Replenishment of solids can be expected to include food and equipment spares, as well as air-launched munitions.

Propulsion of the Type 901 is thought to be provided by four QC280 gas turbines, each delivering 28 MW, enabling the ship to achieve a maximum speed of about 25 kt. This is significantly faster than the Fuchi-class (Type 903A). The speed is needed for the Type 901 to keep pace with the carrier and its escorts.

Refuelling conventionally powered carriers may be required every 3-4 days if conducting intensive flying operations requiring the carrier to operate near its maximum speed for extended periods.

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[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-usa-idUSKBN14K03S

Aerospace & Defense | Fri Dec 30, 2016 | 10:45pm EST

China considering strong measures to contain Taiwan - sources

By Ben Blanchard and Benjamin Kang Lim | BEIJING

China's military has become alarmed by what it sees as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's support of Taiwan and is considering strong measures to prevent the island from moving toward independence, sources with ties to senior military officers said.

Three sources said one possibility being considered was conducting war games near the self-ruled island that China considers as a breakaway province. Another was a series of economic measures to cripple Taiwan.

It was not clear whether any decisions had been taken, but the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Taiwan issue had become a hot topic within the upper echelons of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) in recent weeks.

Trump, due to take office on Jan 20, angered Beijing this month by speaking to Taiwan's president by telephone, breaking decades of precedent and casting doubt on his incoming administration's commitment to Beijing's "one China" policy. Beijing fears this could embolden supporters of independence in Taiwan.

"If Trump challenges 'one China' after becoming president, this would cross our red line," said another source, who has ties to China's leadership.

China's defense ministry declined to comment. An official at the ministry's news department said China's position was clearly laid out in the 2005 Anti-Secession Law, which authorizes the use of force against Taiwan in the event China judges it to have seceded.

Asked about any possible aggressive moves from China, Taiwan
defense ministry spokesman Chen Chung-shi said: "We are fully
prepared, and plan for the worst while preparing for the best."

China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its sacred and inviolable territory and is deeply suspicious of President Tsai Ing-wen, whose ruling Democratic Progressive Party espouses the island's independence. Tsai, who took power this year, says she wants to maintain peace with China, but China is unconvinced.

Tsai said on Saturday that Taiwan will be "calm" when facing issues to do with China, but uncertainties next year will test the self-ruled island and its national security team.

Beijing has also been angered by a trip planned by Tsai in January to Latin America in which she will transit through Houston and San Francisco. China has urged the United States to block the stopovers.

Chinese officials have blamed Taiwan for creating trouble rather than Trump, and many of them believe he will be more accommodating to China once in office.

"We're ready. If Taiwan wants to make trouble so can we. Let's hit them hard," said an official in Beijing who meets regularly with China's most senior military officers, including those who work directly with President Xi Jinping.

"We can hold exercises close to Taiwan, and show them the damage we could cause. Taiwan will have to give in then," the official added, citing a recent conversation with one of the military officers.

ONE CHINA POLICY

The United States is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, but it's unclear if the United States would send troops in the event of war between China and Taiwan.

Washington also acknowledges Beijing's position that there is only one China and Taiwan is its territory.

Related Coverage
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Taiwan says will be calm when dealing with China, but 2017 will test national security

A retired senior officer who maintains contacts with the PLA told Reuters that China probably wouldn't need to fire any missiles to bring Taiwan to its knees. China is Taiwan's largest trading partner, and Taiwan runs a huge trade surplus with China, worth $27 billion in 2015.

"We can just cut them off economically. No more direct flights, no more trade. Nothing. Taiwan would not last long," the officer said. "There would be no need for war."

In addition, any Western economic blockade of China put in place in the event of war with Taiwan would also be damaging to China, already dealing with a slowing economy.

A U.S. defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Chinese actions had been more provocative in the past month, since Trump won the U.S. election and made comments about Taiwan.

This month, a Chinese naval flotilla headed by its sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, took part in drills that took it around Taiwan.

Chinese air force jets have performed similar drills in recent weeks, flying close to the island, though China has officially called the air force and naval exercises routine.

China also scored a diplomatic victory when tiny Sao Tome and Principe switched recognition to Beijing from Taiwan.

(Additional reporting by J.R. Wu in Taipei and David Brunnstrom and Idrees Ali in Washington; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

------

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-taiwan-politics-idUSKBN14K02I

World News | Fri Dec 30, 2016 | 10:45pm EST

Taiwan says will be calm when dealing with China, but 2017 will test national security

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen speaks on the phone with U.S. president-elect Donald Trump at her office in Taipei, Taiwan, in this handout photo made available December 3, 2016. Taiwan Presidential Office/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said on Saturday that Taiwan will be "calm" when facing issues to do with China, but uncertainties next year will test the self-ruled island and its national security team, even as she recommitted to maintaining peace.

China is deeply suspicious of Tsai, who it thinks wants to push for the formal independence of Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing regards as a renegade province.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump angered China this month when he spoke to Tsai in a break with decades of precedent and cast doubt on his incoming administration's commitment to Beijing's "one China" policy.

Speaking at a year end news conference, Tsai said there was room to talk with China and things to talk about.

Taiwan's pledge to maintain peace and stability has not changed and its goodwill toward China has not changed, she said, adding that Taiwan will not be pressured.

"Cross-strait relations are certainly a challenge for the people of Taiwan and for this country," she said.

"But please don't forget that Taiwan is a sovereign independent nation."

Relations between China and Taiwan have worsened since Tsai, who heads the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected president in January, even as she has pledged to maintain peace with China.

Defeated Nationalist forces fled to Taiwan in 1949 at the end of a Chinese civil war and Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control.
A group of Chinese warships led by the country's sole aircraft carrier carried out drills this month that took them around Taiwan and through the disputed South China Sea on their way to the Chinese province of Hainan.

China's air force also conducted long-range drills this month, which it said was routine, above the East and South China Seas that rattled Japan and Taiwan.

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Further drama looms with Tsai's transit through the United States next month for a Latin America trip. China has called on the United States to block the transits.
Tsai said the transit was unofficial, and speculation about it "excessive".

(Reporting by J.R. Wu; Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Michael Perry)


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[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-hongkong-idUSKBN14K00V

World News | Fri Dec 30, 2016 | 8:31pm EST

No space for Hong Kong independence, China says

There is no space for Hong Kong independence in the "one country, two systems" agreement under which Beijing governs the former British colony, but there can be tolerance for differences in their systems, a senior Chinese official said.

Chinese leaders are increasingly concerned about a fledgling independence movement in Hong Kong, which returned to mainland rule in 1997 with a promise of autonomy known as "one country, two systems", and recent protests in the city.

The head of China's Hong Kong Macau Affairs Office, Wang Guangya, told pro-Beijing Hong Kong magazine The Bauhinia that "under 'one country, two systems' there is absolutely no space for 'Hong Kong independence'", in comments carried in the ruling Communist Party's People's Daily on Saturday.

"Hong Kong is an inseparable part of the country, and in no situation is 'Hong Kong independence' allowed. This is a bottom line that cannot be touched in 'one country, two systems'," Wang said.

As "one country, two systems" is new, it has no ready-made experience to draw from, and it's normal that in this process "new situations, new problems and new challenges" will arise, he added.

"You can't expect it to be all plain sailing," Wang said.

"The central government has confidence in and patience with Hong Kong. As long as the 'one country' principle is not damaged, the differences in the 'two systems' absolutely can be tolerated and respected," he added.

China's parliament last month staged a rare interpretation of the Basic Law, Hong Kong's mini-constitution, to effectively bar pro-independence city lawmakers from taking office there.

In separate comments from the same interview reported by the official Xinhua news agency late Friday, Wang said the interpretation did not harm the independence of Hong Kong's legal system, but that that independence could not limit the Chinese parliament's ability to interpret the Basic Law.

"It needs to be pointed out that the independence of the legal system is an important principle of the rule of law in Hong Kong, and the central government has always cherished and protected the independence of Hong Kong's legal system."

Chinese President Xi Jinping told outgoing Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying last week that China's central government strongly supports efforts by the Hong Kong government to curb moves by some promoting independence for the global financial hub.

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Hong Kong returned to China under the "one country, two systems" agreement that ensured its freedoms and wide-ranging autonomy, including a separate legal system.

But Communist Party rulers in Beijing have ultimate control, and some Hong Kong people are concerned they are increasingly interfering to head off dissent.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Eric Meijer)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKBN14J14I

World News | Fri Dec 30, 2016 | 6:21pm EST

Iraqi forces face fierce Islamic State combat in south Mosul


Iraqi forces face fierce Islamic State combat in south Mosul
01:14

By Stephen Kalin | NEAR MOSUL, Iraq

Iraqi forces faced fierce resistance from Islamic State militants in southern Mosul on Friday, the second day of a renewed push to take back the city after fighting stalled for several weeks.

An officer in the federal police forces, which joined the battle on Thursday, said there were heavy clashes in the southeastern Palestine district, but they had made progress in two other neighborhoods, disabling a number of car bombs.

Another officer, from an elite Interior Ministry unit fighting alongside federal police, said his forces were gaining ground in the Intisar district despite heavy clashes there.

Iraqi forces in the east and north of the city were clearing areas they had recaptured on Thursday before advancing any further, officers said, and the army was trying to cut supply lines to the town of Tel Keyf, north of Mosul.

Since the offensive began 10 weeks ago, U.S.-backed forces have retaken a quarter of the jihadists' last major stronghold in Iraq in the biggest ground operation there since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

Recapturing Mosul would probably spell the end for Islamic State's self-styled caliphate, and Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has said the group would be driven out of Iraq by April.

Elite forces pushed into Mosul from the east in October but regular army troops tasked with advancing from the north and south made slower progress and the operation stagnated.

After regrouping this month, they renewed the offensive on Thursday, advancing from the south, east and north of the city, which has been under militant control for more than two years.

The second phase of the operation will see U.S. troops deployed closer to the front line inside the city.

On Friday, a Reuters reporter saw a handful of Americans in their MRAP vehicles, that tower over Iraqi tanks, accompanying top commanders to meetings in a village just north of Mosul.

Although the militants are vastly outnumbered, they have embedded themselves among Mosul residents, hindering Iraqi forces who are trying to avoid civilian casualties. Despite food and water shortages, most civilians have stayed in their homes rather than fleeing as had been expected.

A civilian in the southeastern Wahda district, which is still under Islamic State control, said helicopters were visible overhead firing at Islamic State targets on the ground.

"One of them targeted a car carrying a rocket launching pad from which Daesh (Islamic State) was targeting counterterrorism positions in liberated areas," he said over the phone.

NORTHERN FRONT
On the northern front, Iraqi forces have yet to enter Mosul itself but on Friday they were clearing just-recaptured areas on its periphery as well as trying to cut off Tel Keyf.

"The enemy had occupied this area and used it for resting and resupplying toward Tel Keyf and Mosul," Major General Najm al-Jubbouri, a top commander in the offensive told Reuters in the northern district of Sada, which was recaptured on Thursday.

"It (Tel Keyf) is surrounded from the other sides and by our forces here," he said.

Related Coverage

VIDEO-Air strike kills at least seven at Mosul hospital - Amaq

Jubbouri said the U.S.-led coalition backing Iraqi forces had killed 70 militants since late on Thursday and were using Apache helicopters, HIMARS rocket launchers and fighter jets.

Mosul is bisected by the Tigris river, and Iraqi forces have yet to enter the western side, where 2,000-year-old markets and narrow alleyways are likely to complicate any advance.

Coalition forces bombed the last remaining bridge connecting east and west Mosul late on Monday in a bid to block Islamic State's access across the Tigris River.

A medical source in Mosul told Reuters a large number of wounded militants had been ferried across the river to the emergency hospital on the western side of city on Thursday.

The source said the militants were denying wounded and sick civilians access to the hospital.

More than 114,000 civilians have been displaced from Mosul so far, according to the United Nations - a fraction of the 1.5 million thought to still be inside.

(Additional reporting by Saif Hameed; Writing by Isabel Coles; Editing by Louise Ireland)

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm....They left the PRC out of the title.....HC

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.conservativehq.com/article/24805-iran-north-korea-pakistan-nuclear-missile-axis

The Iran, North Korea, Pakistan Nuclear Missile Axis

George Rasley, CHQ Editor | 12/30/16

Back in 2002 when I served as Director of Policy and Communications for Congressman Adam Putnam (FL-12) then Vice Chairman of*the Oversight and Government Reform Committee's Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs*he requested a staff report on North Korea’s nuclear program.*

Among the unclassified findings of the 38-page report (prepared through the hard work of Legislative Assistants*Casey Welch and Tim Coleman) was this appreciation of*the nuclear weapons and missile technology*cooperation between North Korea and Iran:

Both North Korea and Iran seem to be using the "building block approach," by developing space boosters that could be reengineered and deployed as ballistic missiles. This approach could allow North Korea and Iran to*possess*a Limited Range ICBM within the next five or ten years, while retaining the option to develop a Full Range ICBM, without initially committing to such a course. In general, the performance attributed to the various missile systems appear to far exceed the performance that would be seen under real-world conditions while carrying a legitimate strategic lethal payload mass, which would not be sufficient to reach the continental United States. However, they present a legitimate lethal threat to the Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and much of Africa.*

It seems that the building block approach is intended to allow these countries to develop the technological and managerial infrastructure of their scientific and industrial base that they do not have now, but which are necessary for the development of a Full Range ICBM in the next 10-15 years…*

Although the majority of systems being developed and produced today are short- or medium-range ballistic missiles, North Korea's three-stage*Taepo*Dong-1 SLV demonstrated Pyongyang's potential to cross the 5,500-km ICBM threshold if it develops a survivable weapon for the system.*Other potentially hostile nations could cross that threshold during the next 15 years.*While it remains extremely unlikely that any potential adversary could inflict damage to the United States or its forces comparable to the damage that Russian or Chinese forces could inflict, emerging systems potentially can kill tens of thousands, or even millions of Americans, depending on the type of warhead, the accuracy, and the intended target…*

The proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs)--driven primarily by North Korean No Dong sales--has created an immediate, serious, and growing threat to US forces, interests, and allies, and has significantly altered the strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia. We judge that countries developing missiles view their regional concerns as one of the primary*factors in tailoring their programs. They see their short- and medium-range missiles not only as deterrents but also as force-multiplying weapons of war, primarily with conventional weapons, but with options for delivering biological, chemical,*and eventually nuclear weapons.
*
The report also noted that the nuclear and missile cooperation between North Korea, Iran and Pakistan was brokered by the notorious anti-Western Pakistani nuclear weapons pioneer A.Q. Khan.*

As we reach the end of the 15-year window projected in our report to Congressman Putnam,*the Voice of America reports*that satellite images taken and analyzed by the intelligence firm Strategic Sentinel discovered a missile silo in*Geumchang-ri, a mountainous area in North Pyongan province, where American intelligence believed that the country was conducting nuclear weapons research in the late 1990s.
*
According to Strategic Sentinel, the missile silo has dimensions very similar to one known to exist in Tabriz, Iran.*

“If this Iranian site is housing missiles and the North Korean site that we have uncovered is the exact same dimension, then it’s quite possible that the site that we have uncovered is housing missiles as well,” explained Strategic Sentinel founder Ryan*Barenklau. He also suggested that the two countries could be collaborating on nuclear research.**

Mr.*Barenklau’s*politesse is understandable,*but there was*no question in the intelligence*we reviewed in 2002*that North Korea, Iran and also Pakistan*had*for many years been cooperating*on missile technology and nuclear weapons research.*And the evidence that cooperation has continued is overwhelming.
*
The bulk of Iranian ballistic missiles are reverse-engineered North Korean designs.*You can see their parallel evolution in*this illustration by globalsecurity.org.
*
Moreover, in*the January 2015 issue of The Tower Magazine, investigative journalist Claudia*Rosett*offered some background on the two rogue nations’ history of joint missile development.*

Rosett*wrote:
In 1992, for example, a North Korean freighter slipped past U.S. Navy surveillance and delivered a cargo of Scud missiles to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. In 2003, a North Korean defector testified before Congress that he traveled from North Korea to Iran in 1989 and helped the Iranians test-fire a North Korean missile. In 2007, a secret State Department cable made public by*Wikileaks*stated,*
Iran and North Korea have continued their longstanding cooperation on ballistic missile technology via air-shipments of ballistic-missile related items. We assess that some of the shipments consist of ballistic missile jet vanes that frequently transit Beijing on regularly scheduled flights of Air*Koryo*and Iran Air.*

In 2010, a Congressional Research Service report by analyst Larry A.*Niksch*estimated that “North Korea earns about $1.5 billion annually from missile sales to other countries. It appears that much of this comes from missile sales and collaboration with Iran in missile development.” Also in 2010, the New York Times reported that Iran obtained 19 missiles from North Korea that were “much more powerful than anything Washington has publicly conceded that Tehran has in its arsenal.” This too was based on a classified State Department cable made public by*Wikileaks. In 2013, a report from the National Air and Space Intelligence Center stated, “Iran has an extensive missile development program, and has received support from entities in Russia, China, and North Korea.” Among Iran’s ballistic missiles is the intermediate-range Shahab 3, based on North Korea’s No Dong missile, with a range long enough to strike Israel.*

This longtime partnership continues to raise the possibility,*said*Rosett*in*an article for*Forbes, “the two countries are also in nuclear cahoots, because ballistic missiles are basically cost-efficient only as vehicles for delivering nuclear warheads”*

Once again, there is no question, based on our 15-year old research that Iran and North Korea – and Pakistan – have cooperated on nuclear weapons*and*missile*technology.*

The Executive Summary of our report concluded:

For many years, there has been a lack of understanding of the origin and direction of the North Korean nuclear weapons program, particularly the DPRK’s ongoing effort to develop the capability to deploy a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile.* Equally absent from public discussion and concern is the clear, high level of cooperation between the DPRK and other anti-western regimes and actors, such as A.Q. Khan the father of Pakistan’s bomb, and Iran.* While this briefing focuses on the history and capabilities of the North Korean nuclear program,*recognizing the relationship between Iran, North Korea and individuals associated with the Pakistani nuclear program will enhance the understanding of this strategic threat.*

After*the North Koreans*tested a nuclear weapon in*last*January, retired Army Maj. Gen. Robert Scales, a former commandant of the U.S. Army War College,*explained in simple terms how the cooperation works today.*

As our friends at TheTower.org reported,*Scales*told Fox News that “We know that the Iranians were at the last*[North Korean]*nuclear test a couple of year ago, [and] we know that the Iranians are helping the North Koreans miniaturize their nuclear weapons.”**

Scales further*indicated that the North Korean nuclear program experienced several failures until it received assistance from Iran. “What does this say about our nuclear deal with Iran?” Scales asked. “It says Iran is able to circumvent it by using their technological colleagues in Pakistan and their test site facility in North Korea to push their own nuclear ambitions….*The Iranians and North Koreans are both developing long-range ballistic missiles by collaborating together.”*

The Axis*of nuclear weapons and missile technology*proliferation*between North Korea, Iran and Pakistan*accelerated under Obama, but*has proceeded unimpeded through both Republican and Democratic administrations.**

When asked what the lesson of the first Gulf War was*General*S.F.Rodrigues, formerly Chief of Staff of the Indian Army said,*"Don't fight the Americans without nuclear weapons."*The George Rasley corollary to that observation is “You don’t seek nuclear weapons unless you plan to fight the United States.”*

This growing tripartite threat*represents one of the great undiscussed strategic challenges facing the incoming Trump administration,*and we here at CHQ believe it has gone undiscussed long enough.*It is time that Americans know the truth about the threat and that American policymakers deal with it.
*
Go here to read “Satellite Pics Suggest Iran, North Korea Cooperating on Nuclear Research” from TheTower.org*

Go here to read*Claudia*Rosett’s*“The Audacity Of Silence On Possible Iran-North Korea Nuclear Ties”*