WAR 12-23-2017-to-12-29-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

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(300) 12-02-2017-to-12-08-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...2-08-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(301) 12-09-2017-to-12-15-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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(302) 12-16-2017-to-12-22-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...to-use-force-in-eastern-ukraine-idUSKBN1EH097

#World News December 23, 2017 / 1:37 AM / Updated 35 minutes ago

Moscow: U.S. arms supply to provoke Kiev to use force in eastern Ukraine

Reuters Staff
2 Min Read

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The U.S. decision to supply weapons to Ukraine is dangerous as it will encourage Kiev to use force in eastern Ukraine, Russian officials said on Saturday.

The U.S. State Department said on Friday the United States would provide Ukraine with “enhanced defensive capabilities” as Kiev battles Russian-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country.

Supplies of any weapons now encourage those who support the conflict in Ukraine to use the “force scenario,” Russia’s RIA state news agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin as saying on Saturday.

Franz Klintsevich, a member of the upper house of parliament’s security committee, said Kiev would consider arms supplies as support of its actions, Interfax news agency reported.

“Americans, in fact, directly push Ukrainian forces to war,” Klintsevich said.

After Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine and Russia are at loggerheads over a war in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces that has killed more than 10,000 people in three years.

Kiev accuses Moscow of sending troops and heavy weapons to the region, which Russia denies.

The Russian foreign ministry said the U.S. decision once again undermines Minsk agreements, TASS state news agency reported on Saturday.

Minsk agreements intended to end the fighting in Ukraine were signed by Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France in the Belarussian capital in early 2015.

Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Alison Williams and Stephen Powell
 

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ate-with-u-s-on-afghanistan-ria-idUSKBN1EH083

#World News December 23, 2017 / 12:37 AM / Updated 3 hours ago

Russian foreign ministry: Moscow ready to cooperate with U.S. on Afghanistan - RIA

Reuters Staff
1 Min Read

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Moscow stands ready to cooperate with the United States on Afghanistan, Russia’s Foreign Ministry official said in an interview with RIA state news agency published on Saturday.

Russia maintains contacts with U.S. acting Assistant Secretary of State Alice Wells, said Zamir Kabulov, special representative to the Russian president on Afghanistan and the head of Asian region department at the Foreign Ministry.

Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh; Editing by Alison Williams
 

almost ready

Inactive
Russia: ISIS has over 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, more coming every day
By
Brecht Jonkers -
23/12/2017

DAMASCUS, SYRIA (11:30 AM) – According to Zamir Kabulov, special envoy and head of the Middle East department in the Russian Foreign Ministry, there are currently no less than 10,000 armed and ready ISIS militants within Afghanistan, with more arriving every day mostly from Syria and Iraq.

ISIS has been mostly defeated in both Iraq and Syria after years of conflict in which the Syrian and Iraqi forces successfully pushed back the terrorist movement that once ruled around half of the two nation’s territory.
Iraq officially declared the country free of the terrorist threat on December 9, whereas in Syria the takfiri organisation has been reduced to small areas of influence in desert areas near the Iraqi border.

However, many ISIS fighters who fled those countries ended up in Afghanistan, where the terrorist group has as many as 10,000 troops at the moment, says Kabulov, adding that the United States has been continuously ignoring warnings by Russia and is still underestimating the ISIS threat to the Central Asian country.

“Russia was among the first nations to ring alarm about the expansion of IS into Afghanistan (…) Lately ISIS has boosted its presence in the country. Our estimate is that their force there is stronger than 10,000 troops and is continuing to grow. That includes new fighters with combat experience received in Syria and Iraq,” Kabulov said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

The majority of these ISIS forces are located near the border regions with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, which adds an extra security concern for Russia as these two nations are considered Russian allies.

“ISIS goals are definitely to expand its influence outside of Afghanistan, which they use as a staging ground. This poses a significant security threat for Central Asia and southern parts of Russia,” Kabulov concluded.



https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-isis-10000-troops-afghanistan-coming-every-day/
 

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/major-powers-seek-hold-sochi-congress-syria-january-132314798.html

Major powers seek to hold Syria peace congress in late January
AFP
Dana RYSMUKHAMEDOVA with Maya GEBEILY in Beirut, AFP • December 22, 2017

Astana (Kazakhstan) (AFP) - Major powerbrokers agreed Friday to hold a peace congress for Syria in Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi in late January after previous attempts to hold the conference collapsed.

Sochi will host the "Congress of National Dialogue" on Syria on January 29 and 30, said a joint statement released after two days of talks spearheaded by Russia and Iran, both key backers of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, and rebel-aligned Turkey.

The congress will see "the participation of all segments of Syrian society," said the statement released in the Kazakh capital Astana.

"To this end three guarantors will hold a special preparation meeting in Sochi before the congress on 19-20 January," it added, referring to Russia, Turkey and Iran.

But a list of prospective participants was not released and the opposition did not immediately confirm participation.

A previous attempt to convene the Sochi congress in November failed following a lack of agreement among would-be participants.

Turkey has said it will be opposed to any talks involving the Kurdish YPG militia of the Democratic Union Party (PYD).

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been hoping to convert Moscow's game-changing military intervention in Syria into a political settlement on his terms.

In November, he convened the leaders of Turkey and Iran in Sochi to discuss the plan for the peace conference.

While both Russian officials and Assad have spoken enthusiastically of the plan, rebel representatives have been wary and the United Nations has yet to firmly endorse it.

Head of the Syrian government delegation Bashar al-Jaafari said Friday that the congress would "pose a basis for dialogue between the Syrians" and confirmed the government would attend.

- 'Not a rejection' -

The opposition was more cautious, although Ayman al-Aasemi, a member of the opposition delegation in Astana, told AFP there was "an openness to the idea of Sochi".

"It's not a rejection. We've asked for more details -- how often it will meet, what's the essential goal," said Aasemi, who also credited Moscow with "opening up" during the latest round of talks.

"According to the Russians, the constitution and the elections will be the main topics."

"We will go back to our popular base and the people we represent in Syria, and see what our interest is in attending this conference. But in my view, it's better to attend than not attend."

The head of the opposition delegation in Astana, Ahmad Tohmeh, said the opposition would have to "hold consultations with our military and political leaders" before confirming participation.

"(The Syrian regime) is participating in peace talks but they are killing our people. How can we talk about a national dialogue?" Tohmeh asked emotionally on Friday.

- A cautious UN -

UN envoy Staffan de Mistura's office acknowledged Friday the plan to hold the congress in January without throwing full support behind it.

"The United Nations maintains its view that any political initiative by international actors should be assessed by its ability to contribute to and support the mandated political process under the United Nations in Geneva," de Mistura's office said in a statement.

The UN envoy held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in Moscow on Thursday.

The Astana talks have run in parallel to the negotiations taking place in Geneva with the backing of the United Nations, but neither set of talks have borne much fruit.

Since the start of Syria's war in 2011, several diplomatic attempts to halt the conflict have stumbled, mainly over Assad's future.

A fragile ceasefire brokered at the end of last year by Moscow and Ankara has been bolstered somewhat by the negotiations in Astana.

The talks there have focussed on implementing four de-escalation zones to stem fighting between government and rebel forces, among other issues.

But both Damascus and the rebel factions have regularly accused one another of violating the ceasefire the zones were intended to bolster.

The second day of the talks in Astana coincided with the anniversary of a devastating and strategically crucial victory by Syrian forces in Aleppo, the country's second-largest city and once a rebel stronghold, after a blistering Russian-backed offensive.

Since the victory over Aleppo, Damascus has consolidated control over much of the country, wresting territory from extremist factions not party to the truce, particularly the Islamic State group.

The war in Syria has left more than 340,000 people dead, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

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https://apnews.com/79d6a427b26f4eeab226571956dd256e

AP Exclusive: Uighurs fighting in Syria take aim at China

Associated Press
GERRY SHIH, Associated Press • December 22, 2017

ISTANBUL (AP) — It was mid-afternoon when the Chinese police officers barged into Ali’s house set against cotton fields outside the ancient Silk Road trading post of Kashgar. The Uighur farmer and his cowering parents watched them rummage through the house until they found two books in his bedroom — a Quran and a handbook on dealing with interrogations.

Ali knew he was in trouble.

By nightfall the next day, Ali had been tied against a tree and beaten by interrogators trying to force him to say he took part in an ethnic riot that killed dozens in western China. They held burning cigarette tips to Ali’s face, deprived him of sleep and offered him only salt water. When he asked for fresh water, they gave it to him — in buckets poured over his head.

That winter night in 2009, Ali recalled years later, would set him on a path that ended on northern Syria’s smoldering plains, where he picked up a Kalashnikov rifle under the black flag of jihad and dreamed of launching attacks against the Chinese rulers of his homeland.

Since 2013, thousands of Uighurs, a Turkic-speaking Muslim minority from western China, have traveled to Syria to train with the Uighur militant group Turkistan Islamic Party and fight alongside al-Qaida, playing key roles in several battles. Syrian President Bashar Assad’s troops are now clashing with Uighur fighters as the six-year conflict nears its endgame.

But the end of Syria’s war may be the beginning of China’s worst fears.

“We didn’t care how the fighting went or who Assad was,” said Ali, who would only give his first name out of a fear of reprisals against his family back home. “We just wanted to learn how to use the weapons and then go back to China.”

Uighur militants have killed hundreds, if not thousands, in attacks inside China in a decades-long insurgency that initially targeted police and other symbols of Chinese authority but in recent years also included civilians. Extremists with knives killed 33 people at a train station in 2014. Abroad, they bombed the Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan in September last year; in 2014, they killed 25 people in an attack on a Thai shrine popular with Chinese tourists.

China is just like the West, its officials say: the country is a victim of terror, and Uighur men are pulled by global jihadi ideology rather than driven by grievances at home. Muslims in the Uighur homeland of Xinjiang, as one Chinese official declared in August, “are the happiest in the world.”

But rare and extensive Associated Press interviews with nine Uighurs who had left China to train and fight in Syria showed that Uighurs don’t neatly fit the profile of foreign fighters answering the call of jihad.

There was a police trainer who journeyed thousands of miles with his wife and children to Syria, a war zone. A farmer who balked at fundamentalist Islam even though he charged into battle alongside al-Qaida. A shopkeeper who prayed five times a day and then at night huddled with others in a ruined Syrian neighborhood to study Zionist history.

And there was Ali, a short, soft-spoken 30-year-old with a primary school education who knew little of the world beyond his 35-acre farm when he left China, a home that had become unlivable.

Sitting cross-legged one recent evening in an empty apartment overlooking a kickboxing gym in Istanbul, he recalled the vow he made the night Chinese police beat him for participating in a riot he never joined.

“I’ll get revenge,” he said.

___

SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY

Ali’s parents eventually got him out of detention — but it cost them 10,000 yuan ($1,500) in bribes to local officials, no small amount for the family of farmers.

Despite his release, Ali was not free.

It was late 2009, and Xinjiang was in lockdown. Four months earlier, hundreds of Uighurs had rioted in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, and attacked the Han, China’s dominant ethnic group. An estimated 200 people died in the unrest that night, the bloodiest ethnic violence the country had seen in decades and an event that would change Ali’s life and that of 10 million Uighurs in Xinjiang.

The government, caught off-guard by the unrest, rolled out an expansive security crackdown and surveillance programs in the region that have accelerated in the last year . Thousands of Uighurs, including moderate Uighur intellectuals, are believed to have been arrested or detained, some of them without trial.

Ali was constantly stopped and questioned wherever he went. He couldn’t check into a hotel, buy a train ticket or get a passport.

“I had nowhere to go,” he said. “Except out.”

As the repression mounted, what began as a trickle of Uighurs fleeing China grew into a mass exodus. In 2013, more than 10,000 left across southern China’s porous borders, according to Uighur exiles. Nearly all the Uighurs who spoke to the AP after returning to Turkey from Syria recounted being persecuted by Chinese authorities as a motive for taking up arms.

“The Chinese government had been accusing Uighurs of militancy for a long time when there hasn’t been much of a threat,” said Sean R. Roberts, an expert on Uighur issues at George Washington University. “That changed after the 2009 crackdown. It’s become a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

___

ESCAPE AND ROAD TO SYRIA

Desperate to leave China, Ali paid more than 100,000 yuan ($15,000) to human smugglers and made his way overland through Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia, where he received a Turkish travel document.

In Turkey, Ali drifted in Istanbul, working construction and electrical jobs for $300 a month. Within two months, his brother said he had met people who could take them to Syria, where they could learn weapons training and return to China to “liberate” their friends and family.

“We’ll avenge our relatives being tortured in Chinese jail,” he said.

Ali agreed, thinking they would go for a few weeks. They ended up spending two-and-a-half years in Syria.

The story of how Ali ended up in a distant war zone echoed the experiences of other Uighurs the AP spoke to in Turkey, who said they joined religious militant groups at first because of grievances against Beijing or support for the idea of a Uighur nation. Most knew little about political Islam that fueled jihadis in other countries, and none said they met with recruiters inside China.

But that changed as soon as they left China’s borders. As Uighur refugees traveled along an underground railroad in Southeast Asia, they said, they were greeted by a network of Uighur militants who offered food and shelter — and their extremist ideology. And when the refugees touched down in Turkey, they were again wooed by recruiters who openly roamed the streets of Istanbul in gritty immigrant neighborhoods like Zeytinburnu and Sefakoy, looking for fresh fighters to shuttle to Syria.

Uighur activists and Syrian and Chinese officials estimate that at least 5,000 Uighurs have gone to Syria to fight — though many have since left. Among those, several hundred have joined the Islamic State, according to former fighters and Syrian officials.

As Uighurs streamed out of China, militant leaders have seized upon China’s treatment of Muslims as a recruiting tactic. The Islamic State, for instance, regularly publishes Uighur-language editions of its radio bulletins and magazines, while the Turkistan Islamic Party has been releasing videos on a near-weekly basis, said Rita Katz, director of the SITE Intelligence monitoring group.

“How can those who are imprisoned due to their faith be freed? How can they be saved from this humiliation?” a masked Uighur fighter says in a Turkestan Islamic Party video released last year. “Words from our mouths won’t help, but jihad for Allah will.”

___

A FARAWAY WAR

From Istanbul, several of the former fighters described taking buses or being driven to the border region of Hatay, where they would cross on foot at night through lightly guarded hills. After a three-hour hike into Syria, cars waited in a forest clearing to whisk them to separate camps dotting the country’s north. One fighter said he simply drove in, unobstructed, on the highway from the Turkish city of Gaziantep.

When the Uighurs arrived in Jisr al-Shughour, a strategic town on the edge of Assad’s stronghold of Latakia region, men with families, like Ali, moved into a ruined neighborhood of single-story brick homes where 150 families stayed. Single men lived together in larger apartment buildings.

The men undertook three-month training sessions in the use of Soviet AKM rifles, shoulder-mounted rocket-propelled grenade launchers, physical conditioning and mapping.

At the beginning of the course, the trainers showed off their prized cache of captured American M-16s and German G3 rifles, but each fighter received a battered AKM and cheap Chinese ammunition. Boys as young as 12 and 13 — mostly orphans — were taken to a separate camp for religious classes and physical training.

Two fighters said they received boxes of food from IHH, a Turkish Islamic charity group, that included rice, flour, meat and even fish imported from Thailand. One of the fighters said the food supplies were labeled with the foreign fighting group they were being shipped to — for example, “Turkistanis (Uighurs) or Uzbeks.”

IHH spokesman Mustafa Ozbek said the group distributes aid in refugee camps near the Syrian border to civilians, but not armed groups.

“All of our aid is conducted officially, documented and reported,” Ozbek said.

The Uighurs in Syria have a reputation for administering their territory with a light touch, said Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi, a British researcher at the Middle East Forum who has extensively interviewed jihadis in Syria, including Uighur fighters. They don’t enforce an Islamic court system or replace local councils — unlike their close allies, the al-Qaida-linked Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Arabic for Levant Liberation Committee.

Instead, an older Uighur would convene young fighters in the evenings to discuss history and politics. They looked to an improbable model for building an independent homeland: Israel and the Zionist movement.

“We studied how the Jews built their country,” Ali said. “Some of them fought, some of them provided money. We don’t have a strong background of that.”

Few Uighurs spoke Arabic and most didn’t mingle with locals, but at one point some residents joked that Uighurs should rename the city Shughuristan, a play on “East Turkistan,” the Uighur exiles’ preferred name for their homeland. The Uighurs were unconvinced.

“This is not our homeland,” Ali and his comrades told the Arabs. “We want our homeland, we don’t need yours.”

___

FEARLESS ‘PAWNS’

Like Ali, Rozi Mehmet wanted to do something to help his people fight Chinese oppression. His grandfather, a wealthy Uighur farmer, had been executed in the tumult of China’s Cultural Revolution in the 1960s.

Three years ago, Mehmet left the ancient oasis town of Hotan and hiked into Syria to join a class of 52 Turkistan Islamic Party trainees.

Within six months, he would be on the front lines with a rocket-propelled grenade launcher strapped to his skinny back, sprinting toward government positions near Jisr al-Shughour.

Jihadi clerics have exhorted Uighurs to take up holy war and reap the rewards of martyrdom. But if he would take a bullet, Mehmet thought as he rushed into battle, he wasn’t dying for Islam — or the virgins that the preachers promised. His homeland was the only thing on his mind.

“I didn’t feel fear,” he told the AP. “If I felt fear, how could I be able to build my country?”

As fighting escalated in 2015 and 2016, hundreds of Uighurs died in its campaigns alongside al-Qaida’s Nusra Front, according to two former fighters who fought in northern Syria.

Radical groups have aggressively recruited Uighurs. Al-Qaida’s leader promised in a video that Islamic militants would repay the Uighurs by striking at “atheist Chinese occupiers” after the Syrian war. The Islamic State has echoed similar pledges and the group in March released a Uighur-language propaganda video vowing to one day shed Chinese blood if Uighurs would join the Syrian struggle.

As the chaotic opposition splintered and reorganized, groups vied for the Uighurs’ support and lauded them for their suicide attacks that often kept the Syrian army off-balance, Mehmet boasted.

An older fighter, also from Hotan, chided the young man, saying he was more cynical about why the Arab jihadis lavished them with praise.

“They praise us, which means they want us to follow them and fight for them,” said Rozi Tohti, 40, who fought near the city of Idlib. They “are trying to lure us to become their pawns.”

___

DISSENT IN SYRIA; THREAT TO CHINA

But several Uighur fighters insisted that, in their minds, there was a distinct line between themselves and the Islamic militants they fought beside. Some Uighurs complained about being stuck in Syria instead of attacking China, as they had been promised.

“We fight for them and help them control the country, and then Uighurs are left with nothing,” Mehmet said.

After joining the TIP in mid-2015, Uighur fighter Abdulrehim visited a graveyard for fallen militants and wondered why there were no Uighur national banners. At one point, he openly challenged a TIP senior leader, Ibrahim Mansour, about what they were doing in Syria, he recalled.

“We haven’t fired a bullet against our enemy, China,” he told a group of gathered Uighur fighters. “We always fight alongside international terrorists. What’s going on here?”

Many Uighur militants have grown tired of the war and are looking to leave particularly as Assad’s forces gain the upper hand, says Seyit Tumturk, a Uighur activist in Turkey who often speaks to fighters in Syria.

He said it was impossible for Uighurs militants to liberate Xinjiang, currently blanketed with paramilitary forces and riot police. But he said Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitious project to develop railway lines, ports, and other infrastructure linking various regions to China makes Beijing vulnerable to militant attacks abroad.

The Islamic State took credit in June for kidnapping and killing two Chinese teachers in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, which is a cornerstone of Beijing’s so-called Belt and Road infrastructure project. In Kyrgyzstan, state security say a suicide bombing of the Chinese embassy in Bishkek was ordered by Uighur terrorist groups active in Syria and financed by al-Qaida’s Nusra Front.

Chinese officials and Western analysts alike say that the Uighurs’ experience in the Syrian jihadi melting pot will likely exacerbate violence against “soft” targets outside China. China’s foreign ministry called the Turkistan Islamic Party a security threat for the Middle East.

“We hope our brothers, including Syria and Turkey, will work with us, strengthen cooperation and cut off the terrorists’ cross-border movements and safeguard regional stability,” the ministry said in a faxed statement in response to questions from the AP.

The ministry did not address questions about the causes of radicalization but said that China’s government has invested heavily in Xinjiang’s economic development, protected its minorities’ rights and treated them just as every other ethnic group.

“Of course, when there are those who try to create tension in Xinjiang, the Chinese government’s commitment to striking against violent terror and ethnic splittism is unquestioned,” it said.

___

RETURN TO TURKEY AND AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

By June of this year, Ali had tired of Syria and wanted to get out. For him, the war consisted of spending months at a time manning checkpoints and patrolling borders.

But like many other Uighurs who sought to return to Turkey, he struggled to find a way back. Ali walked for a week to get around a wall built by the Turkish government on the border. He’s now back in Istanbul and selling milk.

Although some of the Uighur returnees said they would attack China if the opportunity arose, others balked at the idea.

Uighur community workers are concerned that many of those cast back into Turkish society would struggle to integrate and be easily pulled back into radical groups. Many of the men make $200 to $300 a month, barely enough to cover rent in Istanbul, and spoke poor Turkish. Many faced daily discrimination.

Activists also worry about TIP recruitment continuing unchecked in Turkey, where it appears to have a degree of official support.

This year, Turkish authorities detained TIP members including a former top commander, ostensibly for his own safety, said a diplomat in Beijing and a Uighur activist who was allowed by Turkish officials to speak with him. But Turkey refused to allow Chinese intelligence to interrogate the former commander, deeply frustrating Beijing, the diplomat said.

Uighur leaders say Turkish police also have released several well-known Uighur jihadi recruiters even after the community offered tips that led to their arrest.

“There are suspicions that these recruiters have links with some individuals or agencies within the government,” said Omer Kanat, director of the Uyghur Human Rights Project in Washington. “They’re turning a blind eye.”

Rozi Tohti, the middle-aged fighter from Hotan, sat in a meadow facing the ruined walls of old Constantinople and ruminated on the choices facing his compatriots in Turkey: give their lives to a radical Islamic movement that they did not believe in or struggle to settle into a Turkish society where they did not fit in.

One thing was clear. Returning to their homeland was out of the question.

“Who wants to live in a war zone?” Tohti said. “We once had paradise in our country. But it was being erased by the Chinese, so instead we looked for paradise in Syria.”
 

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https://ca.news.yahoo.com/mexico-murders-hit-record-high-dealing-blow-president-012725573.html

Mexico murders hit record high, dealing blow to president

Reuters
December 23, 2017

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico has this year registered its highest murder total since modern records began, according to official data, dealing a fresh blow to President Enrique Pena Nieto's pledge to get gang violence under control with presidential elections due in 2018.

A total of 23,101 murder investigations were opened in the first 11 months of this year, surpassing the 22,409 registered in the whole of 2011, figures published on Friday night by the interior ministry showed. The figures go back to 1997.

Pena Nieto took office in December 2012 pledging to tame the violence that escalated under his predecessor Felipe Calderon. He managed to reduce the murder tally during the first two years of his term, but since then it has risen steadily.

At 18.7 per 100,000 inhabitants, the 2017 Mexican murder rate is still lower than it was in 2011, when it reached almost 19.4 per 100,000, the data showed. The rate has also held below levels reported in several other Latin American countries.

According to U.N. figures used in the World Bank's online database, Brazil and Colombia both had a murder rate of 27 per 100,000, Venezuela 57, Honduras 64 and El Salvador 109 in 2015, the last year for which data are available.

The U.S. rate was 5 per 100,000.

Still, Pena Nieto's failure to contain the killings has damaged his credibility and hurt his centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which faces an uphill struggle to hold onto power in the July 2018 presidential election.

The law bars Pena Nieto from running again.

The current front-runner in the race, leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has floated exploring an amnesty with criminal gangs to reduce the violence, without fleshing out the idea.

Mexican newspaper Reforma said on Saturday that after a campaign stop in the central state of Hidalgo on Friday, Lopez Obrador again addressed the issue when asked whether talks aimed at stopping the violence could include criminal gangs.

"There can be dialogue with everyone. There needs to be dialogue and there needs to be a push to end the war and guarantee peace. Things can't go on as before," Reforma quoted Lopez Obrador as saying.

Such a strategy harbors risks for the former Mexico City mayor.

A poll this month showed that two-thirds of Mexicans reject offering an amnesty to members of criminal gangs in a bid to curb violence, with less than a quarter in favor.

Separately, Lopez Obrador said on Saturday he would get rid of Mexico's intelligence agency CISEN if he won the July election, calling it an "unnecessary expense."

"We're not going to monitor anybody, we're not going to spy, we're not going to listen to phone calls, or hack phones to get files and photos," he said in the central town of Tezontepec.

(Reporting by Diego Ore and Dave Graham; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Susan Thomas)


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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rce-in-sahel-fighting-islamists-idUSKBN1EH0JX

#WORLD NEWS
DECEMBER 23, 2017 / 9:18 AM / UPDATED 10 HOURS AGO

Macron: France ready to strengthen force in Sahel fighting Islamists

Reuters Staff
2 MIN READ

PARIS (Reuters) - President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday France stood ready if needed to strengthen its military force fighting alongside African troops against Islamist insurgents in the Sahel.

Video

France has been seeking to eventually withdraw from the poorly policed scrublands of the Sahel region - which abuts the Sahara to the north and has become a recruiting and training ground for Islamist militants - with the help of a new regional African force.

The G5 Sahel, which began official operations in November, is made up of troops from Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso and Mauritania that will patrol the region in collaboration with 4,000 French troops deployed there since intervening in 2013 to quell an insurgency in northern Mali.

But Macron said on a visit to the Niger capital Niamey that the Sahel would remain a focus for the French army, should it be required in the future.

“France is ready, not only to maintain, but if necessary to strengthen its engagement in the region because the fight against terrorism in the Sahel is essential, in my opinion,” he said during a joint news conference with his Nigerien counterpart Mahamoudou Issoufou.

“The fight is not won today ... it is essential not only to maintain but to further improve our agility on the ground, to innovate more and to focus our priorities on the regions identified as the most vulnerable,” he added.

Speaking during his visit to Niger, Macron also announced an additional 10 million euros to help educate girls, one of the priorities promoted by President Issoufou to curb migration.

This sum is on top of 15 million euros already invested by France to help education in Niger. Paris pledged in mid-December to spend 400 million euros over 2017-2021 to support Niamey.

Reporting by Sophie Louet and Maya Nikolaeva in Paris, Edward McAllister in Dakar; Editing by Stephen Powell
 

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Syrian, Iranian backed forces advance in border near northern Israel
 

Housecarl

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-blast-in-afghan-capital-kabul-idUSKBN1EJ095

#World News December 24, 2017 / 9:55 PM / Updated 5 hours ago

Islamic State claims responsibility for blast in Afghan capital, Kabul

Reuters Staff
1 Min Read

CAIRO (Reuters) - Islamic State claimed responsibility for an explosion on Monday carried by a suicide bomber near a compound of Afghanistan’s national intelligence agency in the capital, Kabul, the group said on its Amaq news agency.

The blast, close to the entrance of the security agency compound, killed at least three people and wounded one, Afghan government officials said.

Reporting and writing by Nayera Abdallah; Editing by Robert Birsel
 

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ng-taiwan-to-heel-official-says-idUSKBN1EJ052

#World News December 24, 2017 / 7:14 PM / Updated 8 hours ago

China has 'overwhelming advantage' in bringing Taiwan to heel, official says

Reuters Staff
3 Min Read

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s growing economic, political and diplomatic power means it is achieving an “overwhelming advantage” in bringing self-ruled Taiwan to heel, and time is on China’s side, a senior official said in a comments published on Monday.

Taiwan is one of China’s most sensitive issues. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring what it considers a wayward province and sacred Chinese territory under its rule.

Writing in the influential state-run newspaper the Study Times, Liu Junchuan, who heads the liaison office of China’s policy-making Taiwan Affairs Office, said it was inevitable Taiwan would come under China’s control.

China’s economic growth means its economy now far surpasses Taiwan‘s, and the trend would only continue, Liu wrote in the paper, which is published by the Central Party School that trains rising Communist Party officials.

“The swift development and massive changes in the mainland of the motherland are creating an increasingly strong attraction for the people of Taiwan,” he said.

“The contrast in power across the Taiwan Strait will become wider and wider, and we will have a full, overwhelming strategic advantage over Taiwan,” Liu added.

“The economic, political, social, cultural and military conditions for achieving the complete reunification of the motherland will become even more ample.”

The concepts of peaceful reunification and “one country, two systems” would become even more attractive to Taiwan’s people and foreign forces will not be able to stop it, Liu said.

“The basic situation of the Taiwan Strait continuing to develop in a direction beneficial to us will not change, and time and momentum are on our side.”

China has long mooted taking Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” form of government, which is supposed to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy, and applying it to Taiwan, though the people of the proudly democratic island have shown no interest in being ruled by the autocratic mainland.

Taiwan says Beijing does not understand what democracy is and that only Taiwan’s people can decide the island’s future.

Relations between Beijing and Taipei have soured since Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party won presidential elections last year, with China suspecting she wants to push for the island’s formal independence.

Tsai says she wants peace with China but will defend Taiwan’s security and democracy.

China has stepped up military drills around Taiwan and squeezed Taiwan’s international space, siphoning off its few remaining diplomatic allies.

Defeated Nationalist forces fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the Chinese civil war to the Communists.

Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Robert Birsel
 

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If you thought what has already been going on in Turkey was bad, this is going to open the door to a whole different level of "stuff" coming to Turkey....

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...es-fears-of-legalized-extra-judicial-violence

Erdogan Law Stirs Fears of Legalized Extra-Judicial Violence

By Onur Ant
December 25, 2017 1:40 AM PST Updated on December 25, 2017 6:17 AM PST


  • [*]No penalties for actions to resist coup ‘or its continuation’
    [*]Bar chief says it’ll incite political lynchings and murder

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest emergency decree risks inciting political violence by giving legal cover to pro-government vigilantes, opposition parties and legal authorities warned.

The order, declared in the Official Gazette on Sunday, grants sweeping immunity for acting against terrorism or attempts to overthrow the government. Civilians won’t face legal consequences for actions against last year’s coup attempt -- or more importantly -- anything that could be considered its “continuation,” the decree said.

Erdogan and his allies regularly accuse political opponents of furthering the agenda of coup plotters, raising concern - and fear - about how broadly the decree will be interpreted. Opposition parties led by the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, said the measure provides immunity not just to those who fought back a failed coup attempt by a faction of the military on July 15, 2016, but to supporters of the government intent on stifling political dissent.

No Consequences
“They’ve paved the way for anyone who claims to be fighting against terrorism to slaughter everybody else,” Ozgur Ozel, a CHP parliament whip, said in televised remarks in the western province of Manisa. “They will unleash vigilantes on us in a future democratic rally and will face no charges.”

Ozel’s comments were echoed across Turkey’s normally fractured opposition spectrum. Meral Aksener, a former interior minister who leads the newly established Iyi Party, said in a Twitter post that the decree risks dragging Turkey into a civil war by allowing civilians to use weapons on the pretext of suppressing rebellion. It also legitimizes use of paramilitary forces, according to Ziya Pir, a lawmaker with the pro-Kurdish party HDP.

Even Abdullah Gul, a former president who co-founded the AKP with Erdogan, warned of “events that could upset us all” and called for the law to be revised. Its wording is “inappropriate for legal language and is worrying from the perspective of rule of law,” he said on Twitter, in an unusual criticism of his successor’s policies.

More than 200 people including civilians were killed on the night of the coup attempt. There have also been widespread accusations of violence against rank-and-file soldiers who were following their commanders’ orders.

The decree was vaguely worded in terms of its timeframe and its targets. Party spokesman Mahir Unal said it only applied to events that took place on July 15-16, 2016, but that timeline isn’t spelled out in the order.

Ayhan Bilgen, spokesman for the HDP, questioned why the act was written to apply to terrorism if the intent, as Unal said, was only to grant immunity for acts in the two days around the attempted coup. Tusiad, Turkey’s largest business group, called for an overhaul of the decree and a complete end to the state of emergency, citing possible future grievances due to vague clauses in the law.

Lawyers ‘Horrified’
Metin Feyzioglu, head of the national bar association, said in a video posted on Facebook that he was “horrified” by the decree, which he said appears designed to exempt pro-government actors from the legal consequences of political violence. He called on Erdogan to immediately retract it.

“People on the streets are going to start shooting one another in the head,” Feyzioglu said. “You just passed a law that allows citizens to kill one another, to lynch one another, without any punishment or compensation -- what have you done?”

Sunday’s decrees add to a long list of government decisions issued under the state of emergency declared after last year’s failed putsch. Emergency rule allows Erdogan to govern with decrees that carry the force of law, bypassing parliamentary and judicial oversight. The head of Turkey’s top court said earlier this year that the court has no authority to rule on the legality of emergency measures.

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said after imposition of the state of emergency last year that it would never be used for decisions related to economic policies, but that also hasn’t been the case. The latest batch of decrees included several economic measures, among them an executive order allowing the transfer of a majority stake in state-run lender Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO from the state foundation that owned it to the Treasury.

A spokesman for Yildirim’s office declined to comment when contacted by phone on Monday. The office of presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin, who’s accompanying Erdogan on a trip to Sudan, also said it couldn’t immediately respond to opposition criticism of the measure.
 

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http://www.france24.com/en/20171226-south-africa-blighted-racially-charged-farm-murders

26 December 2017 - 04H14

South Africa blighted by racially charged farm murders

© AFP / by Philippe ALFROY | Crosses are planted on a hillside at the White Cross Monument, in Ysterberg, near Langebaan, South Africa, each one marking a white farmer who has been killed in a farm murder

TZANEEN (SOUTH AFRICA) (AFP) - "They beat him with a pole... and you could hear the bones breaking," said Debbie Turner, recounting her husband's murder in a slow, defiant voice.

She refuses to talk about him in the past tense and sleeps with a photo of him close by.

"I miss him so terribly -- it's just so hard," she said, sitting in front of the frail-care unit that has been her home since the attack at their farm.

Robert "Oki" Turner, 66, was beaten to death before her eyes six months ago on their isolated stretch of mountain land in South Africa's northeastern Limpopo province.

He was one of the latest victims of a long campaign of violence against the country's farmers who are largely white.

The rural crime epidemic has inflamed political and racial tensions nearly a quarter-of-a-century after the fall of apartheid.

Farm murders are just one issue that reveals how South Africa is struggling with violence, an economic slowdown and divisions along race lines.

The Turners moved to the verdant region, half-way between Kruger national park and Zimbabwe, some 30 years ago.

On their property, which spans dozens of acres, they grew gum trees which they sold to craftsmen or for firewood.

"Until about four or five years ago, we were very open. We didn't have a key for our house -- we would go away and nothing would have happened," she said.

But then the extreme violence that had long afflicted major cities engulfed rural areas like theirs.

Break-ins, hostage takings and killings became common -- with attackers often making off with just a few hundred rand (less than $20), a mobile phone or a hunting rifle.

The Turners were targeted after nightfall on June 14 when two armed men stormed their farm. Debbie was alone after her husband stepped out to fix a water tap.

- Savagely beaten -
"They said 'we want money'. I said I haven't got money," recounted Debbie.

"They dragged me all over the house and put me under the shower and turned it on and left me for 15 minutes.

"Then they decided to try to rape me. I said 'please don't rape me, I've got HIV'."

Some time later, Oki was found slumped motionless covered in blood after being savagely beaten by the attackers searching for the key to the couple's safe.

He died in hospital a few hours later.

Dozens of white farmers are murdered in similar circumstances in South Africa every year.

In the absence of detailed statistics, the scope and scale of the crimes has become a battleground.

AfriForum, a pressure group that advocates on behalf of the country's nine-percent-strong white population, is one of the forces seeking to shape the debate around farm murders.

"Farmers are living in remote areas, they are far from police stations," said the group's vice president, Ernst Roets.

"There are political factors that play a role here. We are concerned about hate speech, political leaders who... would say for example 'the white farmers should be blamed for everything'."

He is particularly damning of Julius Malema, the firebrand leader of South Africa's radical left, who has called on his followers to "retake the land" from whites.

In 2012 President Jacob Zuma sang a struggle-era song containing the words "shoot the farmer, shoot the Boer".

Agriculture, like much of South Africa's economy, remains in the hands of the white descendants of colonial-era settlers.

White farmers control 73 percent of arable land in the country compared with 85 percent when apartheid ended in 1994, according to a recent study.

Calls for "radical economic transformation" to benefit the black majority have gained traction as unemployment has soared.

They are frequently coupled with accusations that the white minority control a disproportionate share of the nation's wealth.

- 'We built this country' -
That narrative has alarmed many white rural communities.

"We're being hunted," said Pauli, a 43-year-old farmer who declined to give her surname.

More militant white farmers describe the violence they face as "genocide" and use the casually racist rhetoric of the apartheid era.

"They (black people) truly think that we have stolen the country from them," Limpopo-based farmer Gerhardus Harmse told AFP.

"We built this country, show me anything, any place that the blacks built -- there isn't any. They cannot build, they destroy."

The radical fringe has become increasingly vocal.

Last month, some supporters flew the flag of the old white-minority government during a protest against farm murders.

The demonstration called on the government to guarantee farmers special protection -- something that police minister Fikile Mbalula categorically refused.

"All deaths of all South Africans must be met with disgust," wrote Mbalula in a Twitter post. "My problem is that farm murders are racialised and politicised."

While black farmers have so far been largely reluctant to march with their white colleagues, they face many of the same risks.

"We don't feel protected by the government," said Vuyo Mahlati, president of the African Farmers Association of South Africa.

"We need to deal with everyone trying to utilise farming as a centre of a right-wing political discourse. That we are not going to allow."

- 'I will go back' -
Feeling abandoned by the government, many white farmers have taken steps to protect themselves.

Some patrol their land under moonlight, pistols tucked into their belts, to deter would-be attackers.

Others undergo commando training in anticipation of the worst.

Among them is Marli Swanepoel, 37, who owns a farm in Limpopo.

"You have to be prepared. You have to protect yourself," said the mother-of-three.
Hans Bergmann was recently assaulted on his farm, but takes a different approach.

Some weeks ago, armed men broke in to rob his safe, tied him up and shot him in the foot.

"In South Africa everybody thinks farmers have a lot of money," he said.

Bergmann, who is in his sixties, declines to carry a gun or abandon his land.

"I just accept it... where do I go from here if I leave the farm?" he said.

Debbie Turner is scathing of the police who have yet to catch her husband's killers -- or even take a statement from her.

"It shows that what happened that night doesn't mean anything to these people," she said.

"I'm angry against those people who killed my husband. Sometimes I wish they could hang them."

But she will not be leaving any time soon, vowing: "One day I will go back to the mountain."

by Philippe ALFROY
© 2017 AFP
 

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/twenty-eight-arrests-venezuela-looting-violence-203546562.html

Twenty-eight arrests after Venezuela looting, violence

By Maria Ramirez, Reuters • December 26, 2017

PUERTO ORDAZ, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan authorities said on Tuesday they had arrested 28 people in southern Bolivar state for looting and disorder over Christmas in the latest unrest during a severe economic crisis.

There have been scattered protests and roadblocks around the South American OPEC nation in recent days over food shortages, power-cuts, high prices and fuel rationing.

Local chamber of commerce head Florenzo Schettino told Reuters 10 businesses - mostly liquor stores - were looted as dark fell on Christmas Day in Bolivar, which has seen unrest at various points over the last four years of brutal recession.

In the western Andean states, police and soldiers were guarding gas stations, where there were large lines and customers were only allowed to fill up 35 litres per vehicle.

"We're wasting so much time ... The government is testing people's patience," said bus driver Pedro Pina, waiting for hours to buy fuel in Barinas state.

Critics blame President Nicolas Maduro and the ruling Socialist Party for Venezuela's economic mess, saying they have persisted with failed statist policies for too long, while turning a blind eye to rampant corruption and inefficiency.

The government says it is the victim of an "economic war" by political opponents and right-wing foreign powers, intent on bringing down Maduro in a coup.

"This can only be reversed with deep economic reforms," said opposition legislator and economist Angel Alvarado.

In western Zulia state, several hundred thousand people were plunged into darkness on Christmas Eve, sparking fury among those who had scraped together money and hunted for products throughout the day to prepare a traditional family dinner.

"I spent the whole day stressed out - and then the lights went off. What a pathetic Christmas," said Lilibeth Rodriguez, 40, whose family gathering was ruined.

(Reporting by Maria Ramirez; Additional reporting by Francisco Aguilar in Barinas, Isaac Urrutia in Maracaibo, Anggy Polanco in San Cristobal; Writing by Andrew Cawthorne; Editing by Andrew Hay)
 

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https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-...?utm_source=sec&utm_campaign=sl&utm_medium=17

Egypt executes 15 militants over terrorism charges

By Sara Shayanian | Dec. 26, 2017 at 12:45 PM

Dec. 26 (UPI) -- Egypt executed 15 people on Tuesday after they were convicted on terrorism charges for an attack on armed forces in North Sinai in 2013.

The militants were executed at the Prison of Wadi Al Natrun, west of Cairo, and the Prison of Burj Al Arab in the Mediterranean Sea city of Alexandria.

The Egyptian Interior Ministry oversaw the executions.

The inmates had been convicted of "acts of violence" and were executed after court rulings against them became final.

Ezzat Ghonein, director of the Egyptian Coordination for Rights and Freedoms, said the militants were convicted for taking part in violence in the city of Al-Arish located in the northern Sinai Peninsula following the 2013 military coup.

Prosecutors accused the defendants of "targeting military personnel" and "possessing illegal weapons" --- charges the suspects denied in court.

Militants have been increasingly targeting security forces around Mount Sinai since the army overthrew Islamist president Mohammed Morsi in 2013.

Last month, over 300 people were killed by a gun and bomb attack on a Sinai Penninsula mosque.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi vowed to combat the terrorists.

"We will respond to this act with brute force against these terrorists," el-Sisi said in a televised address.

"This terrorist act will strengthen our resolve, steadfastness and will to stand up to, resist and battle against terrorism."


Related UPI Stories
Two ancient tombs uncovered in Egypt
Egypt reopens Rafah border crossing with Gaza in deal
 

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https://divergentoptions.org/2017/12/25/assessment-on-the-revised-use-of-afghan-militias/

Assessment on the Revised Use of Afghan Militias

Posted by
Divergent Options
December 25, 2017

Suzanne Schroeder is an independent analyst. She can be found on Twitter @SuzanneSueS57, and on Tumblr. She is currently working on a long-term project on school poisonings in Afghanistan and has previously written for War on the Rocks. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of any official nature nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.

Date Originally Written: November 27, 2017.
Date Originally Published: December 25, 2017.

Summary: A new plan is under consideration by the Afghan Government to transform the Afghan Local Police into an Afghan Territorial Army. While this transformation contributes to the current U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, without proper oversight, the Afghan Territorial Army could be co-opted by regional strong men.

Text: The number of U.S. and North American Treaty Organization troops currently in Afghanistan is insufficient to carry out U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy. This strategy has multiple parts involving an increased use of air power, employing Special Operations Forces in more ambitious ways, and a constant fight to reverse Taliban gains and prevent the Taliban from securing additional territory. Additionally, there is a counter-terrorism part of the U.S. mission, which unilaterally focuses on containing/defeating the Islamic State-Khorasan Province[1].

On November 19, 2017, The Guardian newspaper reported that Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani is currently considering a U.S. proposal to restructure the Afghan Local Police into the Afghan Territorial Army, modeled after the Indian Territorial Army[2]. The Guardian also reported that the proposal would start with 1,000 men, and possibly reach 20,000, over two years[3]. This proposal has raised numerous concerns with human rights groups, including the United Nations and Human Rights Watch, that fear any new iteration of the militia system will revive the serious abuses that the militias have been accused of in the past ranging from child sexual abuse to extra judicial killings. As global attention shifts away from Afghanistan, increased misuses of power are a concern.

If one types the word “arbakis,“ the Pashto world that generally means militias, into the search field on the Taliban’s alemarah website the result is 81 pages where the term is used. Despite the deceptions and exaggerations that often appear in Taliban propaganda, the negative opinions regarding militias allow the Taliban to gain political capital by exploiting the distrust of these groups based on their records of abusive practices towards civilians. If this anti-militia narrative did not produce some benefit for the Taliban, it is doubtful they would continue to adhere to it so closely.

The plans to form an Afghan Territorial Army are an attempt to provide a second-line defense against Taliban gains. The Taliban understand that repeated attacks on military and police targets accomplish the goal of psychological intimidation. For anyone who may be considering joining the Afghan National Security Forces, the awareness of how often security forces are targeted is a strong deterrent. Taliban attacks on police and military targets have become increasingly ambitious, complex, and deadly.

The war in Afghanistan is both regionally strategic, and a micro-level conflict driven by local concerns. All regional players have their own motives for involvement in the conflict in Afghanistan, whether related to security concerns (containing the Islamic State for both Russia and Iran, as an example), or economic opportunities, as in the case with India and the People’s Republic of China. Also involved are the ever-complex machinations of Pakistan and its security services. Concurrently, there are numerous local competitions for resources, favors, development projects, drugs, and all other commodities. These conditions have allowed local powerbrokers, most of whom have connections to the Afghan National Unity Government, to consolidate their power and establish local fealties, policed by militias. The idea that an Afghan Territorial Army would not be co-opted in some fashion by regional strong men seems dangerously naïve. Afghan Territorial Army units might also be used as conduits for influence from other regional actors. There is no reason why Russia, who already assists the Taliban with small arms and a fuel supply scheme[4], wouldn’t seek to co-opt the Afghan Territorial Army. Any establishment of an Afghan Territorial Army must also take into account the shifting of alliances, which have been so characteristic of this conflict.

A critical part of the counter-terrorism mission in Afghanistan includes the avoidance of another civil war, such as the devastating one that followed the Soviet departure in 1989. While the continuation of Western aid would seem to prevent this outcome, it’s still a danger that existing conditions can be worsened by sectarianism, social inequality, and the ever-present corruption, that is too entrenched to be effectively combated. The establishment of an Afghan Territorial Army that is unregulated and operates outside of an accountability structure, would further fuel declining social and political cohesion. Combined with abuses, and little or no means of redress, Afghan hostilities may be directed at the Afghan National Unity Government, which ironically is greatly lacking in “unity.” The inability of Afghans to redress the actions of an unregulated Afghan Territorial Army would ensure the Taliban gains support. One way to preempt this inability of redress is to truly model the Afghan Territorial Army after the Indian Territorial Army, which is subordinated to the Indian Army to ensure proper oversight.

An Afghan Territorial Army with sufficient oversight, including maintaining an accurate inventory of its weapons and equipment, could contribute towards the U.S. strategic goal of recapturing territory from the Taliban (80% back in Afghan government control, after two years), and sufficiently degrading Taliban capabilities to make negotiations seem a reasonable option[5]. While this strategic goal is lofty, a narrower tactical goal could be an Afghan Territorial Army that succeeds in addressing the localized nature of the conflict and offsets the high level of desertions, among other problems that plague the Afghan National Army.

Any future development of the Afghan Territorial Army will require a functioning, sustainable system of oversight, and an awareness of consequences that could potentially damage U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, thus strengthening support for the Taliban. If the U.S. is invested the creation of an Afghan Territorial Army, then Afghan partners must be willing to adhere to mutually agreed upon guidelines for its employment and oversight, and due care must be taken to evaluate both the potential successes and failures of this type of program throughout its life.

Endnotes:
[1] Author interview, with The Guardian’s Kabul correspondent, Sune Engel Rasmussen, September 11, 2017.
[2] Rasmussen, S. E. (2017, November 19). UN concerned by controversial US plan to revive Afghan militias. Retrieved November 27, 2017, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/19/afghanistan-militias-us-un-diplomats
[3] Ibid.
[4] Loyd, A. (2017, November 11). Afghanistan: the war that never ends. Retrieved November 27, 2017, from https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/afghanistan-the-war-that-never-ends-mchjpgphh
[5] Stewart, P., Ali, I. (2017, November 20). U.S. General Sets Two-Year Goal for Driving Back Afghan Taliban. Retrieved November 27, 2017, from www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/...two-year-goal-for-driving-back-afghan-taliban
 

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https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/int...issile-armed-with-a-hypersonic-glide-vehicle/

Introducing the DF-17: China's Newly Tested Ballistic Missile Armed With a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle

The DF-17 is the first hypersonic glide vehicle-equipped missile intended for operational deployment ever tested.

By Ankit Panda
December 28, 2017

China carried out the first flight-tests of a new kind of ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) in November, The Diplomat has learned.

According to a U.S. government source who described recent intelligence assessments on the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) on the condition of anonymity, China recently conducted two tests of a new missile known as the DF-17.

The first test took place on November 1 and the second test took place on November 15. The November 1 test was the first Chinese ballistic missile test to take place after the conclusion of the first plenum of the Communist Party of China’s 19th Party Congress in October.

During the November 1 test flight, which took place from the Jiuquan Space Launcher Center in Inner Mongolia, the missile’s payload flew to a range of approximately 1,400 kilometers with the HGV flying at a depressed altitude of around 60 kilometers following the completion of the DF-17’s ballistic and reentry phases.

HGVs begin powered flight after separating from their ballistic missile boosters, which follow a standard ballistic trajectory to give the payload vehicle sufficient altitude.

Parts of the U.S. intelligence community assess that the DF-17 is a medium-range system, with a range capability between 1,800 and 2,500 kilometers. The missile is expected to be capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads and may be capable of being configured to deliver a maneuverable reentry vehicle instead of an HGV.

Most of the missile’s flight time during the November 1 flight test was powered by the HGV during the glide phase, the source said. The missile successfully made impact at a site in Xinjiang Province, outside Qiemo, “within meters” of the intended target, the source added. The duration of the HGV’s powered flight was nearly 11 minutes during that test.

The HGV payload that China tested in November was specifically designed for the DF-17, the source told The Diplomat, while noting that parts of the U.S. intelligence community assess that the DF-17 is heavily based on the PLARF’s DF-16B short-range ballistic missile, which is already deployed.

“The missile is explicitly designed for operational HGV implementation and not as a test bed,” the source said, describing U.S. intelligence assessments of the DF-17. This was “the first HGV test in the world using a system intended to be fielded operationally,” the source added.

The DF-17, per current U.S. intelligence assessments, is expected to reach initial operating capability around 2020.

“Although hypersonic glide vehicles and missiles flying non-ballistic trajectories were first proposed as far back as World War II, technological advances are only now making these systems practicable,” Vice Admiral James Syring, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, remarked in June, during a testimony before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee.

Outside these missiles, China has conducted seven known tests of experimental hypersonic glide vehicles. These tests took place between 2014 and 2016.

Tests of the DF-17—the first missile designed for the operational deployment of an HGV with the PLARF—followed the first-ever appearance of a physical hypersonic glider test object in Chinese state media in October.

It’s unclear if the object bears any relation to the tested DF-17, but the images released in October are thought to be the first of any glider-like object in Chinese state media.

In addition to China, the United States and Russia are also developing hypersonic glider technology, but neither country is known to have flight-tested a system in a configuration intended for operational deployment to date.

Hypersonic gliders, by virtue of their low-altitude flight, present challenges to existing radar sensor technology enabling missile defenses. By flying at a low altitude instead of reentering from a much higher apogee on a ballistic trajectory, adversary radars would detect HGVs with less time for an interception to take place before the payload can reach its target.

HGVs, however, are considerably slower in the final stages of their flight than most reentry vehicles on a ballistic trajectory. This may leave them vulnerable to interception by advanced terminal point defense systems.

In a report detailing new ballistic and cruise missile threats to the U.S. released this year, the U.S. National Air and Space Intelligence Center observed that “Hypersonic glide vehicles delivered by ballistic missile boosters are an emerging threat that will pose new challenges to missile defense systems.”
 

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...shiite-center-in-afghan-capital-idUSKBN1EM0F5

#World News December 27, 2017 / 10:32 PM / Updated 43 minutes ago

Suicide bombers kill dozens at Shi'ite center in Afghan capital

Abdul Aziz Ibrahimi, Akram Walizada
5 Min Read

KABUL (Reuters) - Suicide bombers stormed a Shi‘ite cultural center and news agency in the Afghan capital on Thursday, killing more than 40 people and wounding scores, many of them students attending a conference.

Islamic State said in an online statement that it was responsible for the attack, the latest in a series the movement has claimed on Shi‘ite targets in Kabul.

Waheed Majrooh, a spokesman for the ministry of public health, said 41 people, including four women and two children, had been killed and 84 wounded, most suffering from burns.

The attack occurred during a morning panel discussion on the anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Sunni-majority Afghanistan at the Tabian Social and Cultural Centre, witnesses said.

The floor of the center, at the basement level, was covered in blood as wailing survivors and relatives picked through the debris, while windows of the news agency, on the second floor, were all shattered.

“We were shocked and didn’t feel the explosion at first but we saw smoke coming up from below,” said Ali Reza Ahmadi, a journalist at the agency who was sitting in his office above the center when the attack took place.

“Survivors were coming out. I saw one boy with cuts to his feet and others with burns all over their faces,” he said. “About 10 minutes after the first explosion, there was another one outside on the street and then another one.”

“SMOKE EVERYWHERE”

Deputy Health Minister Feda Mohammad Paikan said 35 bodies had been brought into the nearby Istiqlal hospital. Television pictures showed many of the injured suffered serious burns.

“There was a reading and an academic discussion and then there was a huge bang,” said Sayed Jan, a participant in the conference, from his bed in the hospital.
“I felt my face burning and I fell down and saw other colleagues lying around me and smoke everywhere.”

The bloodshed followed an attack on a private television station in Kabul last month, which was also claimed by the local affiliate of Islamic State.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid issued a statement on Twitter denying involvement in the attack, which was condemned by both the Kabul government and Afghanistan’s international partners including NATO and the United Nations.

“I have little doubt that this attack deliberately targeted civilians,” said Toby Lanzer, acting head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.

“Today in Kabul we have witnessed another truly despicable crime in a year already marked by unspeakable atrocities.”

Over the past two years, Islamic State in Khorasan, as the local group is known, has claimed a growing number of attacks on Shi‘ite targets in Afghanistan, where sectarian attacks were previously rare.

The movement, which first appeared in eastern Afghanistan in 2015, has extended its reach steadily, although many security officials question its ability to conduct complex attacks and believe it has help from criminals or other militant groups.

Prior to Thursday’s attack, there had been at least 12 attacks on Shi‘ite targets since the start of 2016, in which almost 700 people were killed or wounded, according to United Nations figures. Before that, there had only been one major attack, in 2011.

FORTIFIED ZONE

Backed by the heaviest U.S. air strikes since the height of the international combat mission in Afghanistan, Afghan forces have forced the Taliban back in many areas and prevented any major urban center from falling into the hands of insurgents.

But high-profile attacks in the big cities have continued as militants have looked for other ways to make an impact and undermine confidence in security.

The attacks have increased pressure on Ghani’s Western-backed government to improve security. Much of the center of Kabul is already a fortified zone of concrete blast walls and police checkpoints, following repeated attacks on the diplomatic quarter of the city.

But militant groups have also hit numerous targets outside the protected zone, many in the western part of the city, home to many members of the mainly Shi‘ite Hazara community.

“This gruesome attack underscores the dangers faced by Afghan civilians,” rights group Amnesty International said in a statement from its South Asia Director, Biraj Patnaik. “In one of the deadliest years on record, journalists and other civilians continue to be ruthlessly targeted by armed groups.”

According to a report this month by media freedom group Reporters without Borders, Afghanistan is among the world’s most dangerous countries for media workers with two journalists and five media assistants killed doing their jobs in 2017, before Thursday’s attack.

According to Sayed Abbas Hussaini, a journalist at Afghan Voice, one reporter at the agency was killed in Thursday’s attack and two were wounded.

Reporting by Abdul Aziz Ibrahimi; Writing by James Mackenzie; Editing by Nick Macfie, William Maclean
 

Housecarl

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Hummm......

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https://www.axios.com/scoop-u-s-and-israel-reach-joint-plan-to-counter-iran-2520518565.html


Barak Ravid of Israel's Channel 10 news 50 mins ago

Scoop: U.S. and Israel reach joint plan to counter Iran

The U.S. and Israel have reached a joint strategic work plan to counter Iranian activity in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli officials said the joint understandings were reached in a secret meeting between senior Israeli and U.S. delegations at the White House on December 12th.

What it means: A senior U.S. official said that after two days of talks the U.S. and Israel reached at a joint document which included understandings on countering Iranian actions in the region. The U.S. official said the document goal's was to translate President Trump's Iran speech to joint U.S.-Israeli strategic goals regarding Iran and to set up a joint work plan.

At the table: The Israeli team was headed by national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat and included senior representatives of the Israeli military, Ministry of Defense, Foreign Ministry and intelligence community. The U.S. side was headed by national security adviser H.R. McMaster and included senior representatives from the National Security Council, State Department, Department of Defense and the intelligence community.

As part of the understandings that were reached the U.S. and Israel decided to form several working groups according to the joint goals:

  1. Covert and diplomatic action to block Iran's path to nuclear weapons – according to the U.S. official this working group will deal with diplomatic steps that can be taken as part of the Iran nuclear deal to further monitor and verify that Iran is not violating the deal. It also includes diplomatic steps outside of the nuclear deal to put more pressure on Iran. The working group will deal with possible covert steps against the Iranian nuclear program.
  2. Countering Iranian activity in the region, especially the Iranian entrenchment efforts in Syria and the Iranian support for Hezbollah and other terror groups. This working group will also deal with drafting U.S.-Israeli policy regarding the "day after" in the Syrian civil war.
  3. Countering Iranian ballistic missiles development and the Iranian "precision project" aimed at manufacturing precision guided missiles in Syria and Lebanon for Hezbollah to be used against Israel in a future war.
  4. Joint U.S.-Israeli preparation for different escalation scenarios in the region concerning Iran, Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

Senior Israeli officials confirmed that the U.S. and Israel have arrived at strategic understandings regarding Iran that would strengthen the cooperation in countering regional challenges.

The Israeli officials said:

"[T]he U.S. and Israel see eye to eye the different developments in the region and especially those that are connected to Iran. We reached at understandings regarding the strategy and the policy needed to counter Iran. Our understandings deal with the overall strategy but also with concrete goals, way of action and the means which need to be used to get obtain those goals."
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Housecarl, I think the assumption that Iran won't respond, either directly or indirectly, to the new alliance between the US, Israel and Saudi Arabian "axis of threat," is naive. Iran has now implemented a land based, ship by truck, logistics support system from Tehran, through Iraq, through Syria and into Lebanon, using the Bekka Valley to drive supplies into Hezzbollah control zones. Assuming either Israel or the US tries to interdict those trucks, well Iran is going to respond to that. If you then throw into the mix the third infitata, you have all the ingredients for a full blown regional war.

I just don't see how we can avoid a major Middle East dust up in 2018.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Housecarl, I think the assumption that Iran won't respond, either directly or indirectly, to the new alliance between the US, Israel and Saudi Arabian "axis of threat," is naive. Iran has now implemented a land based, ship by truck, logistics support system from Tehran, through Iraq, through Syria and into Lebanon, using the Bekka Valley to drive supplies into Hezzbollah control zones. Assuming either Israel or the US tries to interdict those trucks, well Iran is going to respond to that. If you then throw into the mix the third infitata, you have all the ingredients for a full blown regional war.

I just don't see how we can avoid a major Middle East dust up in 2018.

Nor I...As to the public face of all of this being aimed at containing Iran despite the situation on the ground, privately I'd hazard a guess that in fact they're preparing for a "full up" war in the near future. I'm guessing the bulk of the "boots" from the Arab side are going to come from Egypt.

A little "tension" serves Putin's goals, but the Iranians doing "stuff" enough to trigger such an event definitely doesn't. Now whether or not Putin can influence Tehran is yet to truely be seen.
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
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https://ca.news.yahoo.com/mexico-murders-hit-record-high-dealing-blow-president-012725573.html

Mexico murders hit record high, dealing blow to president

Reuters
December 23, 2017

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico has this year registered its highest murder total since modern records began, according to official data, dealing a fresh blow to President Enrique Pena Nieto's pledge to get gang violence under control with presidential elections due in 2018.

A total of 23,101 murder investigations were opened in the first 11 months of this year, surpassing the 22,409 registered in the whole of 2011, figures published on Friday night by the interior ministry showed. The figures go back to 1997.

Pena Nieto took office in December 2012 pledging to tame the violence that escalated under his predecessor Felipe Calderon. He managed to reduce the murder tally during the first two years of his term, but since then it has risen steadily.

At 18.7 per 100,000 inhabitants, the 2017 Mexican murder rate is still lower than it was in 2011, when it reached almost 19.4 per 100,000, the data showed. The rate has also held below levels reported in several other Latin American countries.

According to U.N. figures used in the World Bank's online database, Brazil and Colombia both had a murder rate of 27 per 100,000, Venezuela 57, Honduras 64 and El Salvador 109 in 2015, the last year for which data are available.

The U.S. rate was 5 per 100,000.

Still, Pena Nieto's failure to contain the killings has damaged his credibility and hurt his centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which faces an uphill struggle to hold onto power in the July 2018 presidential election.

The law bars Pena Nieto from running again.

The current front-runner in the race, leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has floated exploring an amnesty with criminal gangs to reduce the violence, without fleshing out the idea.

Mexican newspaper Reforma said on Saturday that after a campaign stop in the central state of Hidalgo on Friday, Lopez Obrador again addressed the issue when asked whether talks aimed at stopping the violence could include criminal gangs.

"There can be dialogue with everyone. There needs to be dialogue and there needs to be a push to end the war and guarantee peace. Things can't go on as before," Reforma quoted Lopez Obrador as saying.

Such a strategy harbors risks for the former Mexico City mayor.

A poll this month showed that two-thirds of Mexicans reject offering an amnesty to members of criminal gangs in a bid to curb violence, with less than a quarter in favor.

Separately, Lopez Obrador said on Saturday he would get rid of Mexico's intelligence agency CISEN if he won the July election, calling it an "unnecessary expense."

"We're not going to monitor anybody, we're not going to spy, we're not going to listen to phone calls, or hack phones to get files and photos," he said in the central town of Tezontepec.

(Reporting by Diego Ore and Dave Graham; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Susan Thomas)


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Mexico can lay all that on former president Vicente Fox. The moron started his war on drugs by invading Oaxaca, Michoacan, Baja (Norte) California, and Sonora with no strategy or intelligence other than shooting up the cartels.
 

Housecarl

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https://geopoliticalfutures.com/north-africa-signs-turkish-revival/

In North Africa, Signs of a Turkish Revival

Dec. 28, 2017 Turkey is trying to strengthen ties in areas once held by the Ottomans.
By Allison Fedirka

For a number of years, the Turkish government has tried to strengthen relations with countries that were formerly part of the Ottoman Empire. It’s part of what GPF sees as Turkey’s re-emergence as a regional power. One of the regions in which it has tried to establish a growing presence is North Africa, where the Turkish president has spent much of this week on state visits. It’s important to remember, however, that Ankara still faces a number of barriers to restoring its past glory.

Reviving Turkish Influence

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week visited Sudan, Tunisia and Chad in what, on the surface, appeared to be routine diplomatic trips aimed at maintaining bilateral ties. Both the Turkish and the international press particularly emphasized the Sudan visit, highlighting Turkey’s plan to restore the Suakin Port along the Red Sea. The port has been defunct for more than a century, but it was a major port during part of the time that Sudan was ruled by the Ottomans. It will now be used mostly for tourism and a ferry service to Mecca.

The restoration of this port is part of a broader neo-Ottomanist strategy to revive Turkish influence in regions once controlled by the Ottomans. Domestically, the government has been arousing pan-Turkic sentiment for years through a number of measures, including restoring historic sites. But now we’re seeing moves to expand Turkish power on the international front, with the Turkish press even referencing the country’s Ottoman past during Erdogan’s visits abroad.

But Turkey won’t be able to revive its old empire if it can’t ensure its own survival. Key to its survival is maintaining its control over the Bosporus, a critical waterway that separates the European and Asian parts of Turkey. The Ottomans too depended on this passageway. Before Mehmed the Conqueror took Constantinople (now Istanbul) in 1453, the Byzantine Empire was able to threaten the Ottomans and prevent them from defending their holdings on either side of the strait. Securing the Bosporus requires building buffer zones around it where Turkey can maintain some degree of influence and prevent other powers from getting close enough to threaten Turkish control. Building this strategic depth requires establishing power over parts of the Caucasus that can act as chokepoints in its ability to project power further east toward Iran; securing territory south of the Caucasus in Arab lands that border the western side of the Zagros Mountains; protecting or controlling its border with Europe in the southern Balkans; and defending itself in the eastern Mediterranean.

turkey-ottoman-empire.jpg

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/turkey-ottoman-empire.jpg

Turkey faces challenges to establishing buffers in each of these directions. In the Caucasus, it faces competition from both Iran and Russia. In the Balkans, it has to contend with the Russians and key European powers, although Europe currently lacks a major power like the Hapsburg Empire so it’s less threatening. To the south, the Syrian civil war rages on and a lot of political, and potentially military, maneuvering will be needed to establish a Turkish foothold here.

Less Competition

The one place where Turkey could more easily expand its presence is in North Africa. Turkish engagement with countries like Sudan and Tunisia will be met with relatively less competition or pushback from other regional powers. North Africa’s main geopolitical value is its access to the Mediterranean Sea and, to the east, the Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean to the Red Sea. Given that Europe borders the Mediterranean to the north, it naturally has an interest in North African affairs. But this interest is currently limited to stemming migration to Europe, which has exacerbated internal political divisions on the Continent.

The United States needs to ensure its navy has access to the Mediterranean, but it already has this through its NATO partnerships. Washington’s resources are stretched thin, and the resouces it has devoted to Africa are mostly focused on security operations in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.

Russia has recently established a minor naval presence in the Mediterranean to support its operations in Syria, but the fleet’s home base is far away in Murmansk, and maintaining long, large deployments in the region is logistically difficult. Its efforts to expand its global influence are better focused elsewhere in the Middle East or in other strategic regions where it can better compete. Additionally, should it want to contest Turkey directly over the Bosporus, it can use its Black Sea Fleet.

Both Sudan and Tunisia fell under Ottoman rule during the empire’s heydays and could allow Turkey to once again project power into North Africa. The Ottoman Empire seized control over North Africa and maintained this control by relying heavily on local actors and a very powerful navy. In the 15th and 16th centuries, the Ottoman navy had a strong presence in the Mediterranean and maintained trading routes to North Africa for much of this time. While some Italian city states tried to challenge it for control of these routes, they failed to cut maritime supply routes. This time around, however, considering the significant U.S. and NATO presence in the Mediterranean, Ankara will likely establish its influence through political ties and economic investments.

Turkey may be trying to re-establish its once mighty power, but a number of factors still stand in its way. Iran is chief among them. Tehran, which has strong ties with the governments in Damascus and Baghdad, is blocking Turkey’s path in Syria and Iraq. Even at the height of Ottoman power, the empire couldn’t push its borders too far east due to geographic factors, including the long distance between Istanbul and eastern Turkey that made supplying its army difficult.

Although deeply concerned about the rising power of Iran, the Arabs are also worried about Turkish expansion and are therefore resisiting alignment with Turkey. But the Arabs need a counter to Iran. Egypt, considering the state of its economy, is in no position to be an Arab leader. Saudi Arabia is still dealing with the fallout of its economic reforms and the drop in oil prices. Neither of these two countries is capable of countering Iranian power, and thus the only viable option is Turkey.

But by supporting the Turks, they run the risk of helping Turkey re-establish itself as the regional hegemony. The Ottoman Empire is a blueprint for what this regional hegemony might look like in the future, and Ankara’s interest in North Africa is motivated by its desire to grasp that power once again.
 

Housecarl

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https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russia-chinas-alliance-convenience-1/

Russia and China’s Alliance of Convenience

Dec. 26, 2017 A common enemy isn’t the basis for a stable, enduring partnership.

By Jacob L. Shapiro

China and Russia conducted a six-day military exercise last week. The exercise simulated attacks on both countries from ballistic and cruise missiles. The Chinese Ministry of Defense declined to identify which country was the simulated aggressor in the exercise, but it’s not hard to figure out that it was the United States.

A few days into the exercise, the Trump administration published its National Security Strategy. The document is 68 pages long, but one line in particular from the second page has been quoted endlessly in the media: “China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests.” These two developments raise the same question: Is a Sino-Russian alliance emerging?

Military cooperation between Russia and China has indeed increased in recent years. The two main vectors for this cooperation have been weapons purchases and military exercises. Since the end of the Cold War, China has been the Russian weapons industry’s largest and most consistent customer. One of China’s more recent and consequential acquisitions from Russia, S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems, are set to be delivered to Beijing in 2018. China’s current SAM force has a range of only about 185 miles (300 kilometers). The S-400s will have a range of 250 miles. This will put all of Taiwan within range of Chinese SAMs and will extend China’s range in the East and South China seas.

China and Russia have also stepped up the frequency, and complexity, of joint military exercises. They held their first joint exercise in 2003. Since then, the two countries have conducted nearly 30 military drills together. The most recent exercise, which tested readiness to combat an attack from a more advanced air power, was as much for show as it was to hone technical capabilities. The same can be said for Russian-Chinese naval drills held in the Sea of Japan back in September. Chinese state news agency Xinhua insisted that the exercises were not linked to North Korea, but considering the timing and location, that’s a dubious claim. That both drills coincided with U.S.-South Korean-Japanese drills is further evidence of their political nature.

Superficial Alliance

Many observers view these developments as signs of a nascent Russian-Chinese alliance. And both Russia and China want observers to think precisely that. Just take the recent anti-missile exercise. Russia’s ambassador to China made a point of telling Russian reporters last week that the exercise was an example of “vigorously developing military cooperation.” The subsequent article based on the ambassador’s remarks, published in Russian media, was picked up and posted verbatim on the only official English-language military news website of China’s People’s Liberation Army. It’s an article that, frankly, is difficult to take seriously. After the early headline-grabbing quotes, the story lists the areas where China and Russia are increasing cooperation: “military medicine, martial music, and military orchestras.”

Military cooperation, even over such weighty matters as military orchestral arrangements, does not guarantee, or even imply, an alliance between two countries. An alliance is a relationship of serious gravity. When two countries forge an alliance, it means their interests are aligned. In practical terms, that means they will put aside small-ticket items and points of contention because there is a larger shared interest that is of immense importance. The currency of an alliance is trust. The products of an alliance are duty and obligation. Alliances are not entered into lightly, nor are they broken easily. They are based on shared interests that are clear to both sides, interests important enough that they justify the sacrifice by the people of one country for the people of another should a threat arise.

This is not the basis of the Russia-China relationship, and it cannot be the basis of a Russia-China alliance. This is not to say that Russia and China don’t have some basis for cooperation. Both countries chafe at the extent and application of U.S. power. Russia and China are land-based powers of continental size whose access to the global economy can be significantly curtailed by the U.S. Navy in the event of conflict. U.S. power is uniquely suited to limit Russian and Chinese ambitions. For instance, Russia’s primary imperative is to extend its influence out to the Carpathians. The U.S. is blocking Russia from achieving this. China seeks to conquer Taiwan to make the South China Sea a Chinese lake. The U.S. stands in the way. China and Russia share an enemy, and that means a certain level of coordination is useful.

The Multipolarity Myth

When Russian and Chinese leaders get together, one of the buzzwords they use to discuss their policies is “multipolarity.” Multipolarity is part wishful thinking and part strategy. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the world has been unipolar – that is to say, only one country has had the ability to project global power: the United States. Russia and China would see that changed. That is where Russia and China’s shared vision begins – but it’s also where it ends. Russia and China agree that the U.S. should not be a dominant superpower. But they have a vastly different sense of what the alternative reality should be. Russia sees the alternative as a rebirth of Russian power on the order of the Soviet Union’s. China sees the alternative as reclaiming the mandate of heaven, a position that was usurped by Western imperialist powers in the 19th century at a period of maximum Chinese vulnerability. Their issue is not with a unipolar world. Their issue is that they themselves are not the ones calling the shots.

The two sides use the word multipolar to paper over this difference. Better to focus on weakening the U.S. now and work out differences later. But there is only so much that can be papered over. After all, from Beijing’s perspective, Russia was one of the Western imperialist powers that took advantage of Chinese vulnerability. Vladivostok is the most important city in eastern Russia, the home base of Russia’s Pacific Fleet – and China views Vladivostok and the roughly 350,000 square miles of territory around it that it was forced to cede to Russia in previous centuries as Chinese land. Russia views Central Asia as part of its sphere of influence. China views Central Asia as crucial to its plans to develop its own interior and to find alternate routes to Europe until its military is capable of challenging the United States.

china-russia-border.jpg

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/china-russia-border.jpg

From Russia’s perspective, China is a Pacific-facing power whose fundamental interests lie outside of Russia’s interests. Russia has also always seen China as lacking a basic sense of strategy as it is understood in the West, and Moscow believes that this lack of strategy, along with China’s internal inconsistencies, limits China’s effectiveness outside of its main wealth centers on the coast. From China’s perspective, Russia is part of a bygone world order that it seeks to rearrange to its own benefit. China’s patience is as long as its memory. China has not forgotten the various humiliations it was forced to endure, whether U.S. support of Chiang Kai-shek in the Chinese Civil War or Russia playing all sides during the Second Opium War to solidify its position in Asia at China’s expense.

Russia and China don’t trust each other, and they don’t trust each other because they have divergent interests. They work hard to keep this mutual distrust out of public view: military cooperation, economic investments, a chummy relationship between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and promises of coordination on China’s grand plans to unify the world via belts and roads all serve to make it appear that the two sides are in lockstep. But these are surface-level political affairs of convenience. Russia and China challenge U.S. power, security and interests, but they do so for vastly different ends. It will be their undoing.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...aker-shot-dead-in-jalisco-state-idUSKBN1EM1VV

#World News December 28, 2017 / 1:24 PM / Updated 17 hours ago

Regional Mexican lawmaker shot dead in Jalisco state

Reuters Staff
2 Min Read

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Unidentified gunmen shot dead a local lawmaker in the western Mexican state of Jalisco on Thursday, authorities said, the latest killing in a gang-ravaged region ahead of elections next summer.

Saul Galindo, a lawmaker for the opposition center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution, headed the justice committee in the Jalisco state congress, according to its website.

Galindo was at home in the town of Tomatlan when gunmen arrived and shot him, a spokeswoman from the state attorney general’s office said. Galindo was running for mayor of Tomatlan, according to his Twitter feed.

Tomatlan lies in the western part of the state, an area where the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, one of the country’s most powerful drug gangs, has a strong presence.

Mexico holds a string of national, state and local elections on July 1, including in Jalisco and its 125 municipalities.

The motive for the slaying was unclear, said the office of the state attorney general, who is investigating the case.

Earlier this week, an activist for the center-left Citizens’ Movement, the party which holds the mayoralty of state capital Guadalajara, was also shot dead in Jalisco.

Elections in Mexico can cause violence in areas where gangs seek to influence local politics.

Reporting by Lizbeth Diaz; Editing by Alistair Bell
 

Housecarl

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/military-says-gaza-gunmen-fire-rockets-israel-110216657.html

Israel retaliates to Gaza rocket attack, no injuries

Associated Press • December 29, 2017

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel's military retaliated to rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip on Friday with strikes on posts used by the Islamic militant group Hamas that rules the territory. The exchange caused no casualties on either side.

The Israeli military said tanks and aircraft fired at Hamas posts soon after its Iron Dome missile defense system downed two rockets fired from Gaza targeting the south of the country. Police said another rocket exploded in a populated area damaging a building but causing no injuries.

Hamas said there were no injuries in the strikes.

Israel holds Hamas responsible for all attacks initiated from the territory regardless of the gunmen firing the rockets.

The rockets came as the family of Oron Shaul, an Israeli soldier killed in the 2014 Gaza-Israel war, held a birthday ceremony for him near the border prompting some participants to take cover.

Hamas is holding on to Shaul's remains along with those of another soldier killed in the fighting, demanding Israel release dozens of Palestinian prisoners before it opens negotiations on returning them. Hamas is also believed to be holding two Israeli civilians in Gaza.

There has been an uptick in Gaza rocket fire since President Donald Trump on Dec. 6 abandoned decades of American policy by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital and saying he would move the U.S. Embassy to the holy city.

Palestinians were enraged by Trump's declaration, viewing it as siding with Israel on the most sensitive issue in the conflict. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said Trump's move disqualified the U.S. from continuing in its role as the traditional mediator of peace talks.

Trump said his decision merely recognizes that Jerusalem already serves as Israel's capital and is not meant to prejudge the final borders of the city.

Palestinians have clashed with Israeli troops across the West Bank and along the Gaza border since Trump's announcement. Twelve Palestinians have died in the violence so far.

Palestinian health officials said dozens of protesters were injured on Friday, including some by live fire and rubber bullets.

Israel's military said about 2,000 Palestinians rolled burning tires and threw rocks at soldiers stationed near the Gaza border and troops fired "selectively against four main instigators."

It said troops used riot dispersal means in protests across the West Bank where Palestinians threw fire bombs and stones at soldiers.

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Housecarl

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/situation-report-russia-slams-u-124333332.html

Situation Report: Russia Slams U.S. Missile Defense Sale to Japan

Foreign Policy Magazine
Paul McLeary, Foreign Policy Magazine • December 29, 2017

Treaty violations? Moscow and Washington continue to accuse one another of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which was reached between the two countries 30 years ago. The latest flare-up is Moscow’s objection to the recently announced sale of two Aegis Ashore missile defense systems to Japan, which Russia says violates the pact.

A deal, finally? After months of back and forth, Turkish media is reporting that Turkish and Russian officials have signed a financing agreement for the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 anti-missile system worth $2.5 billion. The agreement has unsettled Turkey’s NATO allies, who are uneasy over Russian military equipment being placed in a NATO country.

SecNav packing heat in Helmand. Secretary of the Navy Richard Spencer was spotted carrying a sidearm while visiting troops in Afghanistan recently, the first for a civilian service secretary. His spokespeople say it was no big deal — he was offered the gun and accepted. But it says something that 16 years into the U.S. war there, government officials feel the need to arrive in secret (Vice President Mike Pence earlier this month), and arm themselves while on the ground.

Yemen. Reuters pays a visit to a hospital in Yemen, where diseases thought to have been eliminated — like diphtheria — are back, and are killing children. Thursday marked the 1,000th day of the Saudi-led war in Yemen, which has killed thousands of civilians. Saudi Arabia maintains a blockade of all sea, land, and air ports in the country, keeping desperately needed food and medicine out.

Dear Readers: SitRep is taking a hiatus and slimming down for the holidays. It will be back Jan. 8 in a new once-a-week format. Today is also the last day on duty for Adam and I. We wanted to thank everyone for reading, for the feedback, and for the sharp-eyed corrections and suggestions over the past two-plus years. We did our bleary-eyed best to bring you the news each morning, and sprinkle obscure movie and music references here and there to see if anyone caught them. You often did. While signing off, we also wanted to thank Gordon Lubold for starting SitRep as a daily newsletter way back when, and all of our colleagues who have dragged themselves out of bed before dawn on occasion to pitch in. It’s been a great ride!

Welcome to SitRep. As always, thanks for reading, and please send any tips, thoughts or national security events to paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com and always available on Twitter: @paulmcleary.

Curating Gitmo. What to do with the art created by a military prison full of aging al-Qaeda suspects? That’s the question the Guantanamo Bay detention facility is struggling with after Southern Command ordered it to craft a policy to either burn or archive the works but so far Gitmo officials aren’t saying what their game plan is for detainee art.

Calm in Ankara. U.S.-Turkish relations are thawing a bit as a diplomatic spat that developed following the arrest of a Turkish employee of the U.S. consulate. The U.S. stopped processing new visa applications from Turkey following the incident but the U.S. Mission in Turkey says visa service has returned to normal.

Et tu, bromance? Trump has pronounced himself “very disappointed” in China in a tweet following the release of U.S. satellite imagery showing North Korean ships allegedly violating sanctions by trading oil at sea with Chinese ships.

Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen killed 109 civilians in a series of airstrikes carried out over the past 10 days, according to U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator Jamie McGoldrick.

Foreign fighters. U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria are holding an alleged French member of the Islamic State, according to French media outlets. Kurdish troops allegedly captured convert Thomas Barnouin, who had been arrested by Syrian troops in 2006 after trying to join the jihad in neighboring Iraq, in the northeastern city of Hasakah.

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Housecarl

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/reports-turkey-russia-sign-loan-deal-400-air-104045906.html

Turkey, Russia finalize deal on anti-missile defense system


Suzan Fraser, Associated Press • December 29, 2017

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Turkey has finalized a deal with Moscow for the purchase of Russia's S-400 anti-missile system, Turkish defense officials announced Friday, despite concerns voiced by some of the NATO member's allies.

The deal, which would make Turkey the first member of the military alliance to own Russia's most advanced air defense system, comes amid strengthening ties between Turkey and Russia and Ankara's deteriorating relations with the United States and other western countries.

The Turkish Defense Industries Undersecretariat said in a statement Friday that Turkey would buy at least one S-400 surface-to-air missile battery with the option of procuring a second battery. The delivery of the first battery was scheduled for the first quarter of 2020, the statement said.

The two countries on Friday also finalized a financial agreement for the project, under which part of the cost would be financed through a Russian loan, the Defense Industries body said, without revealing details of the deal.

Turkish media reported Friday that Turkey would purchase four S-400 units at a cost of $2.5 billion. Sergei Chemezov, head of Russia's state-controlled Rostech corporation, also told the business daily Kommersant in an interview published Wednesday that the contract was worth $2.5 billion and that a Russian loan would account for 55 percent of the sum.

Chemezov said Turkey would buy four batteries and that the first deliveries would start in March 2020, according to Kommersant.

"It's the first NATO country to purchase our most advanced S-400 system," he said.

The reason for the discrepancy over the number of batteries Russia would supply Turkey was not immediately clear. The Defense Industries body would not disclose the cost of the project or other details, citing "principles of secrecy" agreed to by the two countries.

The S-400 has a range of up to 400 kilometers and can simultaneously engage multiple targets. It's capable of shooting down ballistic missile warheads along with aircraft and cruise missiles.

Russia deployed the S-400s to its base in Syria to deter Turkey when the two nations were on the verge of conflict after a Turkish jet downed a Russian bomber on the Syrian border in November 2015.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced in September that Turkey had signed a deal to buy the Russian system and made a down payment, drawing concerns from some of Turkey's NATO allies.

Some NATO countries have expressed worries that the S-400 system is not compatible with the alliance's weapons systems.

The Defense Industries agency said the Russian system would be operated under the full control of the Turkish military and "in an independent manner, without any links to any outside elements."

"The system's operation, management, and systems recognizing friends and foes will be undertaken through national means," the Defense Industries body said.

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Associated Press Writer Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow contributed.

5 reactions
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Well, bye bye NATO. Turkey can't be a member of NATO and be getting sophisticated missile systems from Russia at the same time.

Erdogan is still full on for his restored Ottoman Empire fantasy, and now he has the advanced anti-missile/aircraft systems to keep NATO from doing anything about it.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Well, bye bye NATO. Turkey can't be a member of NATO and be getting sophisticated missile systems from Russia at the same time.

Erdogan is still full on for his restored Ottoman Empire fantasy, and now he has the advanced anti-missile/aircraft systems to keep NATO from doing anything about it.

That sort of depends on the system software the Russians loaded as well as the number of back doors in said same's lines of code.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
We see yet again Putin the master at work. Russia is flanking NATO to the south by taking Turkey off the table, and deep into Central Europe by focusing on the Ukraine. When you add in their naval bases in Syria, the new airbase in Armenia, the one on the Turkish border; finally, the former British base on Cyprus, the USA has just been kicked out of the Middle East west of Afghanistan. Damn, those Ruskies are pesky ain't they?
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
We see yet again Putin the master at work. Russia is flanking NATO to the south by taking Turkey off the table, and deep into Central Europe by focusing on the Ukraine. When you add in their naval bases in Syria, the new airbase in Armenia, the one on the Turkish border; finally, the former British base on Cyprus, the USA has just been kicked out of the Middle East west of Afghanistan. Damn, those Ruskies are pesky ain't they?

Yeah, you got to admit the work of true professionals is always a sight to behold, no matter the finished product.
 

homepark

Resist
We quickly 'forgot' those assurances to Russia about NATO not moving into Russia's direct neighbors. Not very surprising at all. All the EU has now to counter Russia, is treaties. That worked so well prior to WWII. I can guess it will function about the same if push comes to shove.
 
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