WAR 12-22-2018-to-12-28-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

Sorry for the delay folks.....HC

(347) 12-01-2018-to-12-07-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...2-07-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(348) 12-08-2018-to-12-14-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...2-14-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(349) 12-15-2018-to-12-21-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...2-21-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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It's interesting to see the contortions the author goes to in this op-ed from the LA Times.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-bacevich-afghanistan-20181219-story.html

The war in Afghanistan isn’t a ‘stalemate.’ The U.S. has lost

By Andrew J. Bacevich
Dec 19, 2018 | 3:15 AM

With the sole exception of Vietnam, the ongoing Afghanistan war represents the greatest failure in U.S. military history. Today, all but a few diehards understand that Vietnam was a debacle of epic proportions. With Afghanistan, it’s different: In both political and military circles, the urge to dodge the truth remains strong.

This may explain, at least in part, why the present commander in chief has yet to visit the war zone. For a president with an aversion to accepting responsibility, traveling to Afghanistan would call attention to a situation he prefers to ignore.
After all, Donald Trump campaigned against the war and vowed if elected to end it forthwith. Once in office, however, he caved in to advisors urging him not only to continue the war but even to dispatch a contingent of reinforcements. Steering clear of Afghanistan allows Trump to sustain the pretense that the war is not actually his.

If only by default, it becomes incumbent on the military itself to explain what’s going on. With the Afghanistan war in its 18th year, Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, characterized the war as a “stalemate” last month. Other high-ranking officers regularly use the same term.

Coming from seasoned professionals who preside over what is ostensibly the world’s mightiest armed forces, this qualifies as a remarkable, though misleading, admission.

The truth is that the United States is losing in its effort to bring order and stability to Afghanistan. The relatively small number of recent U.S. casualties — 13 fatalities in all of 2018 — should not distract from the pertinent facts. Terrorist attacks in Afghanistan occur on a daily basis, with Afghan security forces suffering losses at a rate that even the incoming commander of U.S. Central Command describes as unsustainable. The Taliban now directly controls or contests more than 60% of the districts across Afghanistan. Coalition efforts to foster political legitimacy and create a functioning economy have flopped. Afghan opium production, a major source of insurgent funding, has reached an all-time high.

The most significant indicator of a war gone badly awry is this: The U.S. has now quietly opened negotiations with the enemy. Recall that the immediate military objective of Operation Enduring Freedom when launched back in 2001 was to destroy the Taliban and thereby prevent Afghanistan from ever again becoming a terrorist sanctuary. Yet, now the United States seeks to end the war by coming to terms with the Taliban. That is a de facto admission of failure.

On the one hand, of course, it makes sense for the United States to cut its losses in Afghanistan, and the sooner the better. Substantive U.S. interests there have never been other than marginal. In any logical ranking of U.S. strategic priorities, Afghanistan comes nowhere close to justifying the trillion-plus dollars that the United States has spent there since it first intervened.

On the other hand, some might argue, the United States has a moral obligation to finish what it began. After all, previous administrations stressed that U.S. involvement in Afghanistan included a moral component. The U.S., it was said, was seeking to spread freedom and democracy and to advance the cause of women’s rights. Helped by the United States, Afghanistan would become a beacon of modernity in the Islamic world.

None of that has come to pass, nor will it. So bending to the dictates of realpolitik, authorities in Washington are now proceeding down a path not unlike the one followed by their predecessors a half-century ago when the United States found itself stuck in another unwinnable war. That path culminated with the U.S. selling out its ally and leaving the South Vietnamese people to their fate. Although no U.S. government official will yet admit to the fact and few Americans care enough to notice, a similar fate now awaits Afghans.

If the United States were, in fact, what many Americans imagine their country to be — exceptional, indispensable, history’s chosen agent of salvation — the story of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan might have a different ending. But we are not all that different from other great powers in other ages.

The United States’ war in Afghanistan began with an illusion: that it was incumbent upon the U.S. to liberate and transform that country. The war in Afghanistan will end, as the Vietnam War ended: in shame and abandonment.

Andrew Bacevich is the author most recently of “Twilight of the American Century.”

Comments 53

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm…….

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/pakistan-acknowledges-indian-role-in-afghanistan/

Pakistan Acknowledges Indian Role in Afghanistan

Indian analysts, however, remain divided on the sincerity and reasons for Islamabad’s sudden flip-flop.

By Samuel Ramani
December 22, 2018

On December 11, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi surprised international observers by acknowledging India’s stake in Afghanistan and asking New Delhi to help end the war in Afghanistan. To justify his calls for India-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan, Qureshi emphasized the “shared responsibility” of all regional powers to end the conflict and urged India to follow the “solution through dialogue” approach advocated by the United States, Pakistan, and the Taliban.

Despite Pakistan’s change in rhetoric toward Indian involvement in Afghanistan, India’s reaction to Qureshi’s statement was predictably skeptical. Mumbai-based newspaper The Economic Times acknowledged the symbolic significance of Qureshi’s statement but also claimed that Islamabad would react negatively to expanded Indian involvement in Afghanistan, due to its long-standing fear of strategic encirclement. Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj refrained from commenting on Qureshi’s statement, while her description of Qureshi’s “googly remarks” on Sikh rights continued to circulate widely across Indian social media outlets.

In spite of this official attitude of nonchalance and dismissals of Qureshi’s comments in major media outlets, my discussions with members of the Indian expert community revealed varying explanations for Pakistan’s qualified endorsement of an expanded Indian role in Afghanistan. The primary points of contention relate to Pakistan’s willingness to change its Afghanistan strategy and whether Qureshi’s comments are representative of the Pakistani military’s opinions.

Retired Major General Harsha Kakar, who served in the Indian military from 1979-2015, emphasized the symbolic significance of Qureshi’s statement and its linkage to rhetoric emanating from the Pakistani military’s headquarters in Rawalpindi. In a comment to The Diplomat, Kakar argued that Qureshi’s comments are a direct consequence of Pakistan’s economic malaise and the unsustainability of its aspirations for military parity with India. According to Kakar, the recent comments from Major General Asif Ghafoor, the director general of the Pakistani military’s Inter-Services Public Relations wing, about Pakistan’s need to maintain peace on its borders reflect this geopolitical reality.

Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, presented another explanation for Qureshi’s comments, which aligns more closely with the skeptical view outlined by The Economic Times. In a comment to The Diplomat, he argued that Qureshi’s “surprising” statement did not reflect a major shift in Pakistani foreign policy and represented Pakistan’s usual tendency of “saying the right things” on Afghanistan. Rajagopalan also argued that there is a very real possibility that the Pakistani military, which directs Islamabad’s strategy toward Afghanistan, did not endorse Qureshi’s statement.

Although Indian geopolitical analysts disagree on the intentions behind Qureshi’s statement, there appears to be a near-unanimous consensus around India’s need to uphold its current strategic inflexibility policy toward Pakistan. If Pakistan is insecure about its own capabilities, as Kakar suggests, and is reaching out to India over Afghanistan as a last-ditch olive branch, India’s optimal reaction is to resist Islamabad’s overtures and force further compromises. In particular, India views Qureshi’s outreach as a golden opportunity to pressure Pakistan to extradite Lakshar e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists living on its soil, as this group perpetrated the November 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Recent developments suggest that India’s pressure strategy has helped breach the legal stalemate over the Mumbai attacks. On December 7, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan admitted that Islamabad should resolve the case as part of its broader counterterrorism campaign. Khan’s statement was a response to Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Raveesh Kumar’s accusations that Pakistan was “insincere” about bringing the Mumbai perpetrators to justice. For now, Pakistan appears willing to continue its strategy of plausible deniability about the whereabouts of prime LeT suspects, like the organization’s founder Hafiz Saeed and his close ally Hafiz Abdul Rahman Makki. However, India hopes that linking LeT extraditions to cooperation on Afghanistan will force Pakistan to take this investigation more seriously.

A similar logic holds if Qureshi’s statement is merely a way for Pakistan to improve its international image, without changing its policies. In this scenario, India would be very reluctant to cooperate with Pakistan on Afghanistan as it does not want to look like Islamabad is leading the conflict resolution process. This concern is especially acute, as Qureshi has claimed that Pakistan successfully pressured a previously reluctant Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to open the Kartarpur corridor. India would not want Pakistan to claim a similar public relations victory on Afghanistan, unless Islamabad fundamentally changes its relationships with the Taliban and the Haqqani Network.

The proximity between Qureshi’s comments and the 2019 Indian general elections will likely tempt Modi to continue New Delhi’s strategic inflexibility policy toward Pakistan, even if Qureshi is sincere about expanded cooperation with India on Afghanistan. Retired Brigadier General Venkataraman Mahalingam, a prominent New Delhi-based defense analyst, told The Diplomat that Indian policymakers remain united around the belief that terror and talks cannot go together. As the linkage between Pakistan and transnational terrorism is etched into the Indian popular consciousness, a radical change in India’s strategy towards Pakistan will be accompanied by significant popular backlash.

This outlook, combined with Indian concerns about Pakistani violations of the 2003 ceasefire agreement, explained Swaraj’s decision to rebuff Qureshi’s outreach at the UN General Assembly in September. Adopting a more amenable position on cooperation with Pakistan, in the absence of major concessions from Islamabad, would also detract from the BJP’s efforts to frame Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi as soft on Pakistan.

If the Modi-led BJP records a decisive victory over the Congress Party in 2019, the possibility of small-scale India-Pakistan cooperation on Afghanistan will marginally increase. As anti-Pakistan sentiments continue to surge in India, Modi is unlikely to frame dialogue with Pakistan on Afghanistan as part of a rapprochement with Islamabad but will instead extol New Delhi’s commitment to collective security preservation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Over the past year, Modi has highlighted New Delhi’s interest in Indo-Pacific collective security initiatives, through under-the-radar diplomatic engagement with North Korea and diplomatic efforts to convince Myanmar to quell the Rohingya crisis. Helping to stabilize Afghanistan would allow India to bolster its prestige within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), even if it is accompanied by the undesirable necessity of cooperating with Pakistan.

While Qureshi’s support for an expanded Indian role in Afghanistan constitutes a marked shift from Pakistan’s long-standing policies, Indian analysts remain divided on the sincerity of Qureshi’s rhetoric and the reasons for Islamabad’s sudden flip-flop on India’s role in Afghanistan. These uncertainties and electoral pressures will likely stymie short-term India-Pakistan cooperation on Afghanistan, but the door remains open to limited dialogue on Afghanistan in the second half of 2019.

Samuel Ramani is a DPhil candidate in International Relations at St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford. He is also a contributor to the Washington Post and The National Interest. He can be followed on Twitter@samramani2.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm…….

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...hip-approached-by-venezuelan-navy-off-guyana/

ExxonMobil ship approached by Venezuelan navy off Guyana

By: The Associated Press  
1 day ago

GEORGETOWN, Guyana — A ship hired by ExxonMobil was approached by a Venezuelan naval vessel off the coast of Guyana, one of the most serious incidents yet in oil-rich waters that Venezuela has long claimed as its own.

The Venezuelans did not board the ship and have since left the area, according to a statement issued by Norway’s Petroleum Geo-Services, which was performing a seismic survey on behalf of Irving, Texas-based ExxonMobil.

Bard Stenberg, PSG’s senior vice president for communications, declined to provide further details about the incident, but said the vessel, Ramform Tethys, had not resumed operations and was now heading eastward.

He said the ship was working under Guyanese authority and had all required permits.

ExxonMobil in a statement said that it was working to ensure the safety of all crew members.

Navy hospital ship Comfort returns after treating Venezuelan migrants
A U.S. Navy hospital ship has returned home after its crew treated thousands of people in Central and South America, including migrants who fled crisis-wracked Venezuela.
By: The Associated Press

Exxon drilled its first successful well off the coast of Guyana in 2015 and since then has made nine more discoveries, including one this month that boosted to 5 billion oil-equivalent barrels the company’s estimate of reserves in the deep-water area.

The recent discoveries mean the tiny country of 750,000 people is on track to surpass Venezuela and Mexico to become Latin America's second-biggest oil producer within the next decade, behind only Brazil, energy research firm Wood MacKenzie wrote in a report this month.

But Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has called the oil drilling by the U.S. company illegal, and many fear that as his socialist-run country teeters on the edge of chaos he could seek to provoke his neighbor.

Venezuela has claimed the mineral-rich region west of the Essequibo river in Guyana as its own since the 19th Century, a view shared even by some of Maduro's fiercest opponents. An international tribunal ruled in 1899 that the area formed part of Guyana, which at the time was a British colony. The swath of disputed land makes up 40 percent of Guyana.

Earlier this year, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres sent the case to the International Court of Justice following a failed UN-sponsored attempt to broker a settlement.

Venezuela's navy actually seized a U.S.-chartered oil research ship working in the area in 2013 and held it for more than a week before releasing the vessel and its 36 crewmembers from the U.S., Russia, Indonesia and Ukraine.

AP Writer Joshua Goodman contributed to this report from Medellin, Colombia.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...-base-near-iraq-jordan-that-has-riled-russia/

Flashpoints

US troops to withdraw from Syrian base near Iraq, Jordan that has riled Russia

By: Shawn Snow  
2 days ago

A small U.S. training base known as at-Tanf near the Iraq-Syria border has been the site of much apprehension between Russian and U.S. forces.

As news has spilled out over President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria, Muhannad al-Talla, a rebel commander working alongside U.S. forces at the remote garrison, told Buzzfeed that the U.S. would be withdrawing its troops from the base.

U.S military officials routinely have described the mission at the outpost as a training garrison for anti-ISIS fighters known as the Maghaweir Al-Thowra — a group that has had some previous connections to forces rebelling against Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The existence of the garrison, while hailed as a counter-ISIS mission, has become a symbol of America’s entanglement in the broader politics of the Syrian civil war — with prominent national security experts arguing its true intent is to block Iranian influence in the region.

Nestled near the Iraq-Syria border in the middle of the desert, U.S. forces training rebels at the base established a 55 km deconfliction bubble around the base as Syrian regime, Russia and Iranian proxy forces aligned to Assad made headway into the region in 2017 as they clawed back territory lost during the outset of the civil war.

Russia and Assad both see the base as an irritation, stymieing Syria’s ability to reclaim its borders and open a major avenue of influence that stretches from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea.

Proxy forces allied to Assad, have on numerous occasions attempted to encroach the 55 km safety bubble established by the coalition only to be met by punishing air and artillery strikes.

U.S. forces even moved a long-range precision rocket artillery system, known as HIMARS, to the small garrison to beef up its defenses.

On at least two occasions, the coalition shot down Iranian Shaheed-129 drones, one armed, and the other that dropped a dud bomb near coalition forces.

And in September a company-size element of Marines were quickly dispatched to the garrison as a show of force exercise aimed at tampering down Russian threats to enter the deconfliction zone around the base.

America’s potential withdrawal from the base is a major prize for Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime. It also threatens Jordan’s border should ISIS fighters stumble their way through the desert region unchallenged.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-just-dumped-f-35-133200785.html

Business

Taiwan Just Dumped the F-35 for the F-16V. Here's Why.

Wendell Minnick, The National Interest 2 hours 52 minutes ago

Taipei wants to go in a different direction.

Taiwan Just Dumped the F-35 for the F-16V. Here's Why.

Key point: Taiwan will also retire its ageing Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft due to high maintenance costs and to make room in the budget for new F-16s. Of the sixty fighters France sold Taiwan in the 1990s, fifty-six remain operational. “We would like to resale the Mirage fighters to a third country,” said one source.

TAIPEI - Taiwan’s air force will cease campaigning for the F-35 Lightning stealth fighter aircraft and will, instead, reissue a request to the U.S. government for F-16 fighters.

(This first appeared last month.)

The new proposal will push for the release of sixty-six F-16V Block 70 fighters, with an additional six aircraft to replace crashed F-16A/B Block 20s (seventy-two total aircraft).

This is, in part, a resurrection of an abandoned effort to procure sixty-six F-16C/D Block 50/52s killed by the Obama administration due to Chinese pressure. Beijing had dubbed the sale of new F-16s to Taiwan a “red line” and has repeatedly threatened to invade the self-ruled island.

The new campaign will also request co-production and performance-based logistics (PBL) as part of the overall package. PBL would improve combat effectiveness by 80 percent, say Taiwan defense industry sources.

One source said PBL was a “critical part of the package…we must have it.”

The package is consistent with Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen’s indigenous defense industry policy that mandates local production of weapon systems that in the past were procured only from the United States. In part, the policy weens Taiwan away from dependency on the United States for weapon sales that are often influenced by Washington’s fickle relationship with Beijing.

Local sources also want the PBL to expand later to include Taiwan’s current F-16 upgrade effort. Taiwan procured 150 F-16A/B Block 20 fighters in the 1990s and is currently upgrading them to F-16V as part of the $5 billion Phoenix Rising Program.

The PBL could later be expanded for the fleet of twenty C-130H Hercules cargo/transport aircraft and twelve P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, all Lockheed Martin products.

The air force is also upgrading its Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDF) under a program that will allow the IDF to carry more munitions and replace its radar and combat computer. Taiwan is down to 126 aircraft from the original 130 due to crashes. It was constructed in the 1990s by state-run Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) in Taichung, which is also participating in the F-16V upgrade program.

AIDC is currently manufacturing a new advanced jet trainer (AJT) to replace its ageing AT-3 and F-5 fighter trainers. The new AJT, expected to roll-out in late 2019, is loosely based on the IDF design. AIDC plans to build sixty-six aircraft with operational deployment in 2026.

The air force turned its back on pursuing the F-35B short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) fighter due to a recent Taiwan National Security Council report. It indicated the stealth fighter was too exorbitant and untested in real combat to be a pragmatic choice for Taiwan.

There are also suspicions in Taiwan that opposition to the sale of a fifth-generation fighter would be raised in Washington over secrecy issues, as mainland Chinese espionage on the island is rampant.

The STOVL option was originally considered a practical requirement due to China’s vast arsenal of short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan. Military analysts in Taiwan and Washington predict that the air bases will be pummeled during the initial phase of a war.

However, Taiwan still needs an advanced fighter aircraft capability to maintain sovereignty and control of its air space, especially as China begins testing the island’s air defense capabilities with fighter and bomber aircraft sorties that now circumnavigate the island.

Taiwan will also retire its ageing Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft due to high maintenance costs and to make room in the budget for new F-16s. Of the sixty fighters France sold Taiwan in the 1990s, fifty-six remain operational. “We would like to resale the Mirage fighters to a third country,” said one source.

Wendell Minnick is an author, commentator, journalist and speaker who has spent two decades covering military and security issues in Asia, including one book on intelligence and over 1,200 articles. From 2006-2016, Minnick served as the Asia Bureau Chief for Defense News, a Washington-based defence weekly newspaper.

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[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.longwarjournal.org/arch...oreign-fighters-are-embedded-within-group.php

Taliban commander admits thousands of foreign fighters are embedded within group

By Bill Roggio | December 18, 2018 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio

In a startling admission, a senior leader in the Afghan Taliban told NBC News that “thousands” of foreign fighters are currently embedded in the group in Afghanistan. The admission is astonishing as the Taliban has attempted to obscure its relationship with al Qaeda, even though it slips up every now and then. FDD’s Long War Journal has maintained for the last eight years that US military and intelligence estimates of between 50 to 100 al Qaeda in Afghanistan (later modified to 200) have been woefully low.

The Taliban leader, who has not been named, admitted this to NBC News as the group was conducting negotiations with the US in Qatar. From the report:
A senior Afghan Taliban commander who is also a member of the group’s leadership council told NBC News that there were around 2,000 to 3,000 non-Afghan fighters in their midst, mostly from China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Chechnya, Tunisia, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

“We are Muslims and according to our religion … we cannot deny shelter to someone if he or she comes to trouble,” said the commander, who recently attended three days of talks with Khalilzad in Qatar. “None of the foreign militants would be allowed to take up arms and use this soil against any country in the world.”

Thousands of Pakistanis are also thought to be fighting as members of the Taliban.

It is unclear why the Taliban leader felt the urge to admit that thousands of foreign fighters are fighting alongside his group (most these are without a doubt al Qaeda, note how the Taliban commander refers to them as “foreign militants”). Perhaps he is emboldened by the US government’s desperation to negotiate with the Taliban, and is unconcerned that his comments will make US officials reconsider the Taliban’s relationship with al Qaeda.

Regardless of the reason, the admission further validates eight years of research by FDD’s Long War Journal, which has rejected the absurd notions that al Qaeda was defeated in Afghanistan and the Taliban has distanced itself the group. Between 2010 and 2015, LWJ fought back against the US military and intelligence community’s unchanging assessment of 50 to 100 al Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan. Using the US military’s own press releases on operations against al Qaeda, and al Qaeda’s own statements of its operations in Afghanistan, it was clear that the terror group’s footprint was far larger than 50 to 100 operatives. The fact that this estimate remained the same for six straight years was also a tell that the intelligence on al Qaeda’s strength in Afghanistan was being gamed, likely for political reasons, primarily to justify the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The preposterous 50 to 100 estimate was completely discredited in Oct. 2015, when the US military raided two al Qaeda camps in Shorabak, Kandahar. More than 150 al Qaeda fighters were killed in an area that the US military and intelligence community claimed al Qaeda didn’t operate. After admitting the 50 to 100 estimate was incorrect, US military leaders laughingly increased the estimate of al Qaeda’s strength to about 200 fighters.

Now, a Taliban leader is saying thousands of foreign fighters are operating alongside it. Will the US military and intelligence community up its estimate? It is doubtful, as the US government is hell-bent on withdrawing, and the fact that thousands of al Qaeda are fighting alongside the Taliban would make it difficult to sell negotiations with the group that hosted al Qaeda when the US was attacked on 9/11.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

Are you a dedicated reader of FDD's Long War Journal? Has our research benefitted you or your team over the years? This holiday season we are asking readers to support our independent reporting and analysis by considering a one-time or monthly donation. Thanks for reading! You can make a tax-deductible donation here.

Tags: Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Taliban
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[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.longwarjournal.org/arch...-the-costs-of-withdrawal-from-afghanistan.php

Analysis: The costs of withdrawal from Afghanistan
By Thomas Joscelyn & Bill Roggio | December 21, 2018 | billroggio@gmail.com |

First it was Syria, then came Afghanistan. Two days ago, President Trump shocked the foreign policy community by announcing the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, wrongly claiming the Islamic State has been defeated. Within the last 24 hours, reports have emerged that the US military will quickly pull nearly half of its forces from Afghanistan, and likely withdraw the rest by the end of 2019.

Trump’s decision is unsurprising to us. We’ve reported since October that the order to withdraw from Afghanistan could come at any time.

Many are celebrating the move, pointing to the length of the conflict (17 years), the enormous sunk cost and the inability of the Afghan government to stand on its own. Careful readers of this website will note that we have been critical of the war effort, and especially the rosy rhetoric employed by US military officials. We could easily pen another biting critique of the US-led war.

More troubling to us than a so-called “endless war,” however, is an outright jihadist victory. And that’s what Trump’s withdrawal of the small American force in country all but guarantees.

For years, the Taliban and al Qaeda have told their followers that victory is on the horizon. “Verily, Allah has promised us victory and America has promised us defeat, so we shall see which of the two promises will be fulfilled,” Mullah Omar has been quoted as saying.

More recently, al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri claimed that the Taliban’s resurrected Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will be the “nucleus” of a new caliphate. Such is the importance that Osama bin Laden’s successor has placed on the Afghan jihad. Similarly, the leader of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Asim Umar, predicted in 2017 that Trump’s “America First” policy meant that America would retreat from Afghanistan, thereby signaling the loss of its global leadership position.

Today, their predictions look prophetic. The precipitous withdrawal of US forces will grant the Taliban and al Qaeda a victory. Just as the mujahideen vanquished one superpower in Afghanistan, they will now claim to have defeated a second. The boost this gives to the global jihadist movement will be felt in the years to come. Trump’s withdrawal will have other costs as well, from undercutting his diplomats’ already weak negotiating position to validating Pakistani duplicity. And the Islamic State hasn’t been defeated in Afghanistan either.

A victory for the Taliban and Al Qaeda
The rapid withdrawal of US forces will give the Taliban, the group that hosted al Qaeda before and after the Sept. 11, 2001 hijackings, a clear triumph.

It will also be a win for al Qaeda, which has remained a steadfast ally of the Taliban since the US invasion. Zawahiri has sworn a bayat (oath of allegiance) Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, the current head of the Taliban, just as Zawahiri had pledged his fealty to Akhundzada’s two predecessors. Akhundzada’s top deputy, Sirajuddin Haqqani, has long worked with al Qaeda on the Afghan battlefield. In fact, Sirajuddin Haqqani and his father, Jalaluddin, gave al Qaeda a foothold in the region in the first place.

When Jalaluddin Haqqani’s death was announced in early September, al Qaeda’s general command eulogized him as bin Laden’s “brother.” Al Qaeda addressed Akhundzada and Sirajuddin as “our emirs in the Islamic Emirate,” vowed to remain loyal to the Taliban’s emirate-building project, and said that it took “solace in the fact” that Sirajuddin is the “deputy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s Emir of the Faithful.”

The “Emir of the Faithful,” an honorific usually reserved for a Muslim caliph, is how al Qaeda consistently refers to Akhundzada.

This is not mere rhetoric. Numerous independent reports and assessments confirm that al Qaeda has embedded its operatives as military trainers and advisers alongside the Taliban, while also providing combat forces. AQIS was formed in 2014 for several reasons, but principally to help the Taliban rebuild its Islamic Emirate. AQIS’s men continue to serve their Taliban comrades to this day.

Al Qaeda has hidden the extent of its network in Afghanistan for years. The group doesn’t even release videos or images from its massive training facilities. This has been enough to fool credulous analysts into thinking that al Qaeda maintains only a minimal footprint in the country. Indeed, there is a cottage industry of Taliban apologists in the West. Their dismissal of the Taliban’s ongoing alliance with al Qaeda will be put to the test in the coming months.

Indeed, we expect that once American forces have left Afghanistan, al Qaeda will begin to advertise some of its activities once again. Zawahiri’s men will use America’s defeat as an alluring recruiting tool, bragging that the US couldn’t defeat them.

Weakens an already weak negotiating position
This fall, the US government tasked Zalmay Khalilzad with negotiating a peace deal between the Taliban and the Afghan government. FDD’s Long War Journal has been very clear that we think that this effort has little chance of success. Past efforts to negotiate with the Taliban ended in a fiasco. The Taliban has steadfastly refused to negotiate with the Afghan government, which it views as an “impotent” “stooge” and “puppet” of the US. The Taliban has demanded that American troops leave the country, Taliban prisoners be freed, and its leaders removed from the UN blacklist before the Taliban even considers talking with the government. The Taliban also rejects democracy, refuses to share power with the government, and most importantly, calls elections “un-Islamic.” While some Afghanistan watchers claim these positions can be negotiated, the Taliban has proven over the past that it is willing to hold fast to its radical principles. The West has often mistakenly downplayed the Taliban’s ideological commitment.

Regardless of whether or not you believe negotiations can lead to a settlement (and we do not), the immediate withdrawal of 7,000 troops from the country does not strengthen Khalilzad’s position. In fact, it greatly weakens it. Before news broke that the US would begin withdrawing soldiers, Khalilzad and other US officials had already signaled American weakness by pushing for a quick negotiated settlement. They wanted a deal as soon as April 2019. The US has engaged in these talks without the participation of the Afghan government — a move that grants legitimacy to the Taliban and delegitimizes President Ashraf Ghani’s administration.

The Taliban undoubtably views Trump’s withdrawal as further evidence of US desperation. There was little to no reason to think that the Taliban would negotiate in good faith before. There is none now. The Taliban can string along the US and extract concessions without giving anything up.

From the beginning, the Taliban has insisted that it was “fighting and negotiating with the American invaders for the success of Jihad” – that is, to get America out.
The Taliban has already achieved that goal.

Potential ANSDF collapse & a return of the warlords
The Afghan National Security Defense Forces (ANDSF) have struggled with containing the Taliban-led insurgency, as well as the Islamic State, even with approximately 15,000 US troops in country. Afghan military outposts are routinely overrun by agile Taliban forces. The jihadists even briefly took control of large areas of Farah and Ghazni cities this year. The military and police have largely been on the defensive, as the Taliban has maintained the initiative. ANSDF casualties (killed in battle) average between 500 and 600 a month for the past several years.
Even with US and NATO forces backing the ANSDF, the Taliban controls about 13 percent of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, while contesting another 49 percent, according to an ongoing study by FDD’s Long War Journal.

A rapid reduction in US forces will no doubt allow the Taliban to step up its efforts to gain more territory. A complete withdrawal will pave the way for the Taliban to take control of large areas of Afghanistan. At least some provincial capitals and other populated areas will fall under the Taliban’s control in short order. This likely could lead to the collapse of the ANSDF and the Balkanization of Afghanistan. We could see the return of warlords and a revival of something akin to the Northern Alliance.

Pakistan’s use of jihadism as a foreign policy tool has been validated
Pakistan also has much to gain from a US withdrawal. It says much about America’s ineptitude and confusion that not a single Pakistani official was ever sanctioned or designated as a terror supporter throughout 17+ years of war. Besides the Trump administration’s decision to withhold some miitary aid, Pakistani officials never paid a real price for harboring the same forces that were attacking Americans and their allies.

Pakistan’s model of using jihadists to further its foreign policy goals in the region has been validated. Pakistan sponsors the Taliban and other terrorist groups as part of its regional security strategy. But there is more to it than that. Some unknown number of Pakistani officials have themselves fallen under the jihadists’ sway. The Pakistani military and intelligence establishment will continue to export the jihad to neighboring countries, particularly in the Indian state of Kashmir, but perhaps also elsewhere.

The Islamic State isn’t dead in Afghanistan
Finally, the Islamic State’s so-called Khorasan “province” hasn’t been defeated either. Although a US-led counterterrorism campaign has killed several of the group’s emirs, and dislodged Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s loyalists from their safe havens in eastern Afghanistan, they continue to terrorize the Afghan capital and other populated areas. Meanwhile, they also regularly attack inside Pakistan as well.

Outside of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State’s men are most active in the “Khorasan.” The so-called caliphate hasn’t been defeated in any of those areas, but President Trump is withdrawing from the fight.

We share much of the widespread frustration with the US-led war effort in Afghanistan. We simply disagree that America can withdraw without serious consequences.

In the coming months, we will report on the ramifications of President Trump’s decisions, just as we did during the Obama administration. There is a simple rule of thumb many haven’t learned: the enemy gets a vote.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal. Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD's Long War Journal.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-w...uclear-pact-collapse-095918391--business.html

Russia warns of global conflict over nuclear pact collapse

Reuters • December 22, 2018

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia said on Saturday that the scrapping of a Cold War era nuclear pact may lead to an arms race and direct confrontation between several global regions, after a proposal by Moscow was rejected in a United Nations vote.

Moscow had put forward a resolution in support of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) which bans Moscow and Washington from stationing short- and intermediate-range, land-based missiles in Europe.

Russia's foreign ministry said in a statement that the UN had failed to vote in favor of the proposal.

"A new blow has been dealt on the global architecture of security and stability. Now, with the collapse of the INF treaty, several global regions could be plunged into the arms race or even into a direct confrontation," it said.

Washington has threatened to pull out of the accord, saying Moscow failed to comply with it.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the United States of raising the risk of nuclear war by threatening to spurn the key arms control treaty and refusing to hold talks about another pact that expires soon.

(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Alexander Smith)

37 reactions

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/official-suicide-bomber-gunmen-attack-government-building-131333358.html

World

Suicide bomber, gunmen attack government building in Kabul

AMIR SHAH, Associated Press • December 24, 2018

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — A suicide bomber exploded his car outside a building housing the government's department for martyrs and disabled persons on Monday moments before gunmen stormed the building armed with automatic rifles and explosive devises, Kabul police chief spokesman Basir Mujahid said.

Six people have been reported injured and a police officer has been killed in the attack, said Mujahid. Three of the gunmen were killed in a shootout with police. The attack occurred as workers were preparing to leave for the day, said Mujahid.

Deputy Interior Ministry spokesman Nasrat Rahimi said 200 employees have been evacuated and are safe, but several other employees were still trapped inside the building. Rahimi couldn't say how many gunmen remained inside the building.

Police have cordoned off the area in the east of the capital Kabul as they try to gain control of the situation. Kabul police spokesman, Mujahid said heavily armed police are going floor to floor searching the building to find the remaining gunmen. He said they received a phone call from employees, who were still trapped inside the building. They appeared to be calling from a safe place. They were told to wait until they receive word from police that it is safe to leave. Meanwhile the sound of gunfire had stopped as darkness settled on the capital, said Mujahid.

Several apartment buildings as well as a government public works department building are located in the same eastern Kabul neighborhood where the attack occurred. Eyewitnesses reported that a portion of the government building was in flames and several smaller explosions were heard amid the ongoing gunbattle.

No one claimed responsibility but both the Taliban and the local Islamic State affiliate have carried out brazen daytime attacks in the capital.

9 reactions

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://news.yahoo.com/china-apos-s...vbXVuBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--

China's Submarine Force Is Testing Missiles That Can Nuke America from Long-Range

David Axe,The National Interest • December 21, 2018

Security,
Could this missile be a game-changer?
China's Submarine Force Is Testing Missiles That Can Nuke America from Long-Range

The Chinese navy has tested a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, one that could eventually allow Chinese ballistic-missile boats, or "boomers," to threaten the continental United States from waters that are close to China's shores, and thus safer for the boomers.

The People's Liberation Army Navy tested the JL-3 missile on Nov. 24, 2018, The Diplomat reported, citing unnamed U.S. government sources.

"Modernization of China’s submarine force remains a high priority for the PLAN," the U.S. Defense Department explained in its 2018 report on Chinese military capabilities. The force is on track to achieve parity with America’s own fleet of undersea missile boats.

The Chinese test reportedly took place in the Bohai Sea, the innermost gulf of the Yellow Sea in the Western Pacific. According to The Diplomat, the test focused on the missile's "cold-launch" capability. In other words, its ability to boost from the submerged launching vessel and out of the water before igniting its rocket booster.

The JL-3 represents an improvement over the JL-2 SLBMs that arm the Chinese navy's current Type 094 boomers and an even greater improvement over the JL-1, China's first submarine-launched nuclear weapon. The JL-1 possessed just enough range -- a thousand miles or so -- to threaten countries close to China.

The single Type 092 boat that carried the JL-1 never completed a front-line deployment after entering service in 1987. “It was reportedly too noisy and might have had other safety and reliability issues,” Tong Zhao, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, based at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, explained in a 2018 study
The Type 094s, by contrast, have been a relative success in service. In 2015, the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence described the type's imminent first front-line deployment "perhaps the most anticipated development in China’s submarine force."

Each armed with a dozen JL-2s, Type 094s began to enter service around 2006. A Type 094 apparently conducted China's first undersea deterrence patrol in 2015. “This represents the start of a new era for China’s sea-based nuclear forces," Tong wrote.

The Type 094s represent "China’s first credible, sea-based nuclear deterrent," the U.S. Defense Department stated. A JL-2 can range as far as 5,000 miles, experts estimate. By contrast, a U.S. Navy Trident SLBM can travel as far as 7,500 miles.

To target California, a Type 094 might have to sail past Japan. Ideally for Beijing, its boomers would be able to remain close to mainland China and under the protection of the Chinese fleet while still credibly threatening the United States.

The JL-3 could help the Chinese navy to fulfill this ambition once it, and the Type 096 submarines that will carry it, enter service. The Pentagon's China report projected that construction of the first new boomer would begin in the early 2020s.

It's unclear how many Type 096s Beijing plans to build. "To maintain a continuous peacetime presence, the PLAN would likely require a minimum of five ... SSBNs," ONI reported in 2015.

Beijing might already possess five boomers. By carefully analyzing commercial satellite imagery, in late 2018 Catherine Dill, a researcher with the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California, managed to count five Type 094s. It's possible additional boats exist but weren't visible during Dill's count.

Beijing plans to build eight Type 094s by 2020, Dill asserted.

It's possible that the Chinese Communist Party plans to deploy Type 096s alongside Type 094s, allowing it to expand the boomer fleet beyond the five that the Americans have determined are necessary for a around-the-clock deterrence, and even beyond the eight that Dill claimed were planned.

The U.S. Navy operates 14 Ohio-class boomers. It's building 12 new Columbia-class boats to replace them starting in the 2020s. While China might never deploy a dozen boomers, it could get close to that number.

And once the Type 096s enter service with their JL-3 missiles, the Chinese boats could possess an at-sea nuclear deterrence that, in size and power, is roughly similar to America's own deterrence.

Image: Reuters.
Read full article

12 reactions

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...n-last-is-bastions/ar-BBRosK5?ocid=spartanntp

Kurdish-led force closes in on last IS bastions

5 hrs ago

Kurdish-led forces made fresh gains against jihadists defending their eastern Syria stronghold Monday, forcing hundreds of people to flee the fighting, a war monitor said.

The Syrian Democratic Forces, with aerial support from the US-led coalition, closed in on the two main spots where jihadists are digging their heels in, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

"There is currently fighting around the villages of Al-Shaafa and Sousa," said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Britain-based monitor.

The two villages are the main hubs in what is left of the Islamic State group's last pocket in the Euphrates River valley, near the Iraqi border.

"The latest developments are in favour of the SDF and it appears the Islamic State may collapse soon," Abdel Rahman said.

An SDF spokesman, Kino Gabriel, said the Kurdish-Arab alliance was able to repulse several jihadist attacks and was now advancing from three different directions.

A few hundred holdout fighters are defending the last rump of the jihadist organisation's self-proclaimed "caliphate", which once covered territory the size of Britain.

The fighting comes days after US President Donald Trump announced his decision to pull US troops out, a move many within his own administration feared would weaken the fight against IS.

The SDF reported in a statement on Sunday that it had evacuated 1,000 civilians from the area where the fighting was taking place.

The Observatory said a total of more than 5,000 people were able to flee the IS pocket since the SDF took Hajin, which had been the main hub in the jihadist's Euphrates pocket, on December 14.

Abdel Rahman said most of them were women and children but he added that some fighters were trying to blend in with civilians, forcing the SDF to screen the evacuees at the Omar oil field.

The fall of Al-Shaafa and Sousa will cap a years-long multi-national effort to smash the sprawling pro-state IS declared over parts of Syria and Iraq in 2014.

If the jihadists lose these two villages, they will no longer control any populated areas in Iraq or Syria and will have fully reverted to being a clandestine group hiding in desert areas.

 

[China Connection]

Russia and China will not sit and let Trump rebuild the military from the Obama years.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-sudan-protests-20181225-story.html

Amnesty says 37 killed in Sudan’s anti-government protests

By Associated Press
Dec 25, 2018 | 12:35 AM | Cairo

Amnesty International says it has “credible reports” that Sudanese police have killed 37 protesters in clashes during anti-government demonstrations that erupted last week across much of the country.

In a statement late Monday, the London-based rights group said the use of lethal force by security forces against unarmed protesters was “extremely troubling” given that more protests were planned Tuesday.

A coalition of independent professional unions has called for a march on the presidential palace in Khartoum later Tuesday to submit a petition demanding that longtime autocrat Omar Bashir step down. Two of Sudan’s largest political parties called on their supporters to take part.

The protests began last Wednesday, initially over rising prices and shortages of food and fuel, but later escalated into calls for Bashir to go.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...ing-in-afghan-capital-leaves-43-dead-official

Attack on Government Building in Afghan Capital Leaves 43 Dead-Official

Dec. 25, 2018, at 12:50 a.m.

KABUL (Reuters) - Afghan authorities on Tuesday collected 43 bodies from a government compound in the capital Kabul that was targeted by a suicide bomber and extremists armed with assault rifles on Monday, officials said.

The attack began when the suicide bomber blew up his explosives-laden car in front of a government building that houses a public welfare department in an eastern neighborhood of Kabul.

Some of the attackers rampaged through the building of the Ministry for Martyrs and Disabled Persons taking workers hostage, and others fought a prolonged gun battle with local security forces.

Health ministry spokesman Wahid Majroh said so far 43 bodies and 10 injured had been transported by ambulances from the attack site. One policeman was killed and three militants were gunned down during seven hours of fighting inside the government compound.

Afghan forces evacuated over 350 civilians from the building before calling off the operation on Monday night. No militant group has claimed responsibility for the complex attack that was identical to previous attacks by Taliban insurgents on government offices, foreign buildings, and military bases.

Abdullah Abdullah, the government’s chief executive, blamed the Taliban for the attack.

"The 'Taliban' crime syndicate must know that with every attack they carry out against our people our resolve is further strengthened to eliminate them. Their conduct is a disgrace to the very notion of peace," he said in a tweet.

However, the Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement that the group was not involved in the attack on Monday.

The latest assault came just days after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering pulling out at least 5,000 of the 14,000 U.S. troops currently deployed in Afghanistan.

The possibility of thousands of U.S. troops leaving has triggered confusion and panic in the Kabul government and foreign missions who fear that sudden withdrawal would lead to the return of the Taliban regime, who are fighting to expel foreign forces, topple the Western-backed government and restore their version of hardline Islamic law in Afghanistan.

But Marine General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff who was in Afghanistan on Christmas Eve, was quoted by local news channels as saying that the mission for troops in Afghanistan continues without any changes.

“There are all kinds of rumors swirling around,” said Dunford while addressing hundreds of U.S. troops gathered Monday at a base in Afghanistan.

“The mission you have today is the same as the mission you had yesterday," he said.

The Taliban controls nearly half of Afghanistan and are more powerful than at any time since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion. They carry out near-daily attacks, mainly targeting security forces, government officials and civilians as human shields.

Even as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have intensified, fighting between the Taliban and Afghan forces backed by foreign troops has not subsided.

In the north, Taliban fighters killed a district police chief and kept up the pressure to seize control over parts of Faryab province on Tuesday.

Karim Youresh, a spokesman for the Faryab police said the police chief died in clashes in the Garziwan district that also killed 16 insurgents.

In eastern Nangarhar province, the Taliban killed eight pro-government militia members and injured 12 during clashes in the Bati Kot district.

Attaullah Khogyani, a spokesman for the Nangarhar governor said the Taliban attacked several security checkpoints, with the battles continuing for hours. Ten Taliban were killed and dozens were wounded.

Afghan forces also killed a Taliban field commander in western Herat province on Monday. Mullah Javed, a Taliban military commission chief, and three aides were killed in an air strike in the Zawul district, said a police official in Herat on Tuesday.

Air and ground operations have surged in recent weeks as General Scott Miller, who took command of U.S. forces in Afghanistan in September, has pressed government forces to go on the attack to strengthen their hand in any talks.

(Reporting by Abdul Qadir Sediqi,Matin Sahak in Mazar, Ahmad Sultan in Jalalabad, Storay Karimi in Herat, Writing by Rupam Jain, Editing by Michael Perry and Christian Schmollinger)

 

[Shacknasty Shagrat]

The evil ones are still busy on Christmas.
This warning does not merit a new thread, just a heads up.
I found it unusual in that the warning was specific to place, time and targets.
SS

'Barcelona on high alert after US issues terror warning
By Michael Burke - 12/24/18 09:07 AM EST

Security in Barcelona is reportedly on high alert following a warning from the U.S. of the risk of a terror attack over the holidays.

The State Department in a tweet urged "heightened caution around areas of vehicle movement" in Barcelona's Las Ramblas area during Christmas and New Year's.

"#Spain: Exercise heightened caution around areas of vehicle movement, including buses, in the Las Ramblas area of Barcelona during Christmas and New Year’s. Terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs, and other public areas," the warning reads.

#Spain: Exercise heightened caution around areas of vehicle movement, including buses, in the Las Ramblas area of Barcelona during Christmas and New Year’s. Terrorists may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs, and other public areas. pic.twitter.com/MPGiZwMwxq
— Travel - State Dept (@TravelGov) December 23, 2018



Police in Spain declined to comment on any specific threats Monday, according to The Associated Press, but said that security has been increased “as part of a previously arranged anti-terrorist vigilance for the Christmas period.”

The Spanish Interior Ministry told ABC News the level of anti-terror alert holds at the country’s second-highest level, where it has been since 2015.

In April of 2017, Barcelona, Spain's second-largest city, saw a terror attack that killed 14 people when a man drove a van into pedestrians on La Ramba, a central street popular with tourists. ISIS took credit for the incident.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brie...-on-high-alert-after-us-issues-terror-warning

 

[Shacknasty Shagrat]

I am trying to get more confirmation on this.
As the US wells knows, flawed translations can lead to real wars.


SS

'
Babak Taghvaee
‏ @BabakTaghvaee
25m25 minutes ago

#BREAKING: It is expected that the #Israel takes advantage of the chaos in #Syria to carry-out an airstrike against #Syrian military infrastructures probably tonight or tomorrow nigh


Babak Taghvaee
‏ @BabakTaghvaee
29m29 minutes ago

#BREAKING: According to #Turkish military sources F-16s have left #Diyarbakir AB to provide air support for #FSA Jihadists who just launched their offensive for occupation of #Manbij. It is not clear whether they will engage #Syrian Army in the west of city or not.(Archive image)


Nidalgazaui
‏ @Nidalgazaui

HAPPENING NOW: Firqat al-Hamza Convoy (#FSA) leaves its bases & moves towards the frontline in northern #Manbij minutes after the announcement that the battle of #Manbij has started.

'abak Taghvaee
‏ @BabakTaghvaee

#BREAKING: #Russian forces will support the #Syrian Army & #SDF/#YPG coalition only in Al-Arimah village. So, from Al-Arimah village till #Aleppo will be the #Syria's territory and #Manbij will most likely be occupied by #Turkey following to the green lights of #Russia & #US!



���������� ����������
��
�� Retweeted
ثائر الثورة السورية
‏ @VivaRevolt
55m55 minutes ago

This announcement by one of the key commanders of TFSA is likely to signal that the Turkish Military Operation on Manbij is very imminent
3 replies 12 retweets 19 likes

https://twitter.com/intelcrab?lang=en

 

[Shacknasty Shagrat]

Now we have some 'General Confusion' taking charge of the FSA.
I think he has been running this whole theater for several years.
SS


'
MrRevinsky
‏ @Kyruer

#Syria #EasternEuphrates
Asalat wal Temniyah and a commander from Jaysh al-Islam confirmed the start of the operation against #YPG. Anyway, an al-Hamza Brigade commander denies such statements. General confusion among #FSA groups now.

https://twitter.com/Kyruer/status/1077608558668234752

 

[Shacknasty Shagrat]

It this is not a red flag for something, a real war or a coup against Trump or something else, I don't know one.
Merry Christmas, Mr. Mattis, your dreams of a real war may come true.
SS

'
ELINT News Retweeted
Barbara Starr
‏Verified account @barbarastarrcnn
26m26 minutes ago

Defense Secretary James Mattis is in his third floor Pentagon office on Christmas Day working.
https://twitter.com/elintnews?lang=en

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm…..

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.realcleardefense.com/ar...nese_private_military_contractors_114057.html

Options for Countering the Rise of Chinese Private Military Contractors

By Anthony Patrick
December 26, 2018

Anthony Patrick is a graduate of Georgia State University and an Officer in the United States Marine Corps. Divergent Options’ content does not contain information of an official nature nor does the content represent the official position of any government, any organization, or any group.

National Security Situation: Future threats to United States (U.S.) interests abroad from Chinese Private Military Contractors.

Date Originally Written: November, 26, 2018.
Date Originally Published: December 24, 2018.
Author and / or Article Point of View: The author is a United States Marine Corps Officer and currently attending The Basic School.

Background: Over the last six months, the media has been flooded with stories and articles about the possibility of a trade war between the U.S and the People Republic of China (PRC). These talks have mainly focused around specific trade policies such as intellectual property rights and the trade balance between the two nations. These tensions have risen from the PRC’s growing economic influence around the world. While many problems persist between the U.S and the PRC due to the latter’s rise, one issue that is not frequently discussed is the growing use of Private Military Contractors (PMCs) by the PRC. As Chinese companies have moved operations further abroad, they require protection for those investments. While the current number of Chinese PMCs is not large, it has been growing at a worrying rate, which could challenge U.S interests abroad[1].

Significance: Many countries have utilized PMCs in foreign operations. The most significant international incidents involving PMCs mainly come from those based in the U.S and the Russian Federation. However, many other countries with interests abroad have increasingly started to utilize PMCs. One of the most significant examples has been the growing use of Chinese PMC’s. These PMCs pose a very unique set of threats to U.S national security interest abroad[2]. First, like most PMC’s, Chinese contractors come mainly from the Peoples Liberation Army and policing forces. This means that the PMCs have a significant amount of military training. Secondly, the legal relationship between the PMC’s and the PRC is different than in most other countries. Since the PRC is an authoritarian country, the government can leverage multiple forms of coercion to force PMC’s into a certain course of action, giving the government a somewhat deniable capability to control foreign soil. Lastly, the Chinese can use PMC’s as a means to push their desired political endstate on foreign countries. With the U.S still being ahead of the PRC militarily, and with both states having nuclear capabilities, conventional conflict is highly unlikely. One way for the Chinese to employ forces to counter U.S. interests abroad is through the use of PMC’s, similar to what Russia has done in Syria[3]. With this in mind, the U.S will need a proactive response that will address this problem both in the short and long term.

Option #1: Increase the Department of Defense’s (DoD) focus on training to counter irregular/asymmetric warfare to address the threat posed by PRC PMCs.

Risk: The new National Defense Strategy (NDS) focuses on many aspects of the future conventional battlefield like increasing the size of the U.S Navy, cyber operations, and cutting edge weapons platforms[4]. By focusing more of the DoD’s resources on training to counter irregular / asymmetric warfare, the military will not be able to accomplish the goals in the NDS. This option could also lead to a new generation of military members who are more adept at skills necessary for smaller operations, and put the U.S at a leadership disadvantage if a war were to break out between the U.S and a near peer competitor.

Gain: Another major conventional war is highly unlikely. Most U.S. near peer competitors are weaker militarily or have second strike nuclear capabilities. Future conflicts will most likely require the U.S. to counter irregular / asymmetric warfare methodologies, which PRC PMCs may utilize. By focusing DoD resources in this area, the U.S would gain the ability to counter these types of warfare, no matter who employs them. In addition to being better able to conduct operations similar to Afghanistan, the U.S. would also have the tools to address threats posed by PRC PMCs. Emphasizing this type of warfare would also give U.S actions more international legitimacy as it would be employing recognized state assets and not trying to counter a PRC PMC with a U.S. PMC.

Option #2: The U.S. pursues an international treaty governing the use of PMC’s worldwide.

Risk: Diplomatic efforts take time, and are subject to many forms of bureaucratic blockage depending on what level the negations are occurring. Option #2 would also be challenging to have an all-inclusive treaty that would cover every nation a PMC comes from or every country from which an employee of these firms might hail. Also, by signing a binding treaty, the U.S would limit its options in foreign conflict zones or in areas where Chinese PMC’s are operating or where the U.S. wants to use a PMC instead of the military.

Gain: A binding international treaty would help solve most of the problems caused by PMC’s globally and set the stage for how PRC PMC’s act as they proliferate globally[5]. By making the first move in treaty negotiations, the U.S can set the agenda for what topics will be covered. The U.S can build off of the framework set by the Montreux document, which sets a non-binding list of good practices for PMCs[6]. By using the offices of the United Nations Working Group on PMCs the U.S would be able to quickly pull together a coalition of like minded countries which could drive the largernegotiation process. Lastly, Option #2 would help solve existing problems with PMC’s operating on behalf of other countries, like the Russian Federation.

Other Comments: None.

Recommendation: None.

Endnotes:
[1] Swaine, M. D., & Arduino, A. (2018, May 08). The Rise of China’s Private Security (Rep.). Retrieved November 26, 2018, from Carnegie Endowment For International Peace website: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/05/08/rise-of-china-s-private-security-companies-event-6886

[2] Erickson, A., & Collins, G. (2012, February 21). Enter China’s Security Firms. Retrieved November 26, 2018, from https://thediplomat.com/2012/02/enter-chinas-security-firms/3/

[3] United States., Department of Defense, (n.d.). Summary of the 2018 National Defense strategy of the United States of America: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge (pp. 1-14).

[4] Gibbons-neff, T. (2018, May 24). How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria. Retrieved November 25, 2018, from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/...ican-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

[5] Guardians of the Belt and Road. (2018, August 16). Retrieved November 26, 2018, from https://www.merics.org/en/china-monitor/guardians-of-belt-and-road
[6] Switzerland, Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Directorate of International Law. (2008, September 17). The Montreux Document. Retrieved November 26, 2018, from https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0996.pdf

This article appeared originally at Divergent Options.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm…..

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/turkey-stands-firmly-against-u-160000888.html

World
Turkey Stands Firmly Against U.S. Sanctions On Iran

OilPrice.com,Oilprice.com Tue, Dec 25 8:00 AM PST

Following Wednesday's unexpected and dramatic full and "immediate" withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Syria, Turkey has announced it will not play ball on Iran sanctions. According to a translation of the Turkish president's words on Thursday during a previously planned summit with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Ankara, journalist Abdullah Bozkurt reports, "Turkish president Erdogan says Turkey won't support U.S. sanctions on Iran which he claims puts regional security and stability at risk, vows to take all measures to minimize impact of sanctions on trade between the two countries, pledges support to Iran in difficult times."

This is huge given that the complete U.S. reversal in policy comes following a phone call last week between President Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wherein Erdogan is reported to have pressed the Kurdish problem and presence of U.S. troops. The United States needs Turkey as a key regional economy if it hopes to effectively strangle Iran through sanctions. Without Erdogan, analysts believe, Iran will be able to weather the storm long term.

Abdullah Bozkurt
@abdbozkurt


Turkish president #Erdogan says #Turkey won't support US sanctions on #Iran which he claims puts regional security and stability at risk, vows to take all measures to minimise impact of sanctions on trade between the two countries, pledges support to Iran in difficult times.

85
8:32 AM - Dec 20, 2018

For the past week Erdogan has threatened to launch a full-scale cross border assault on U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria, which Turkey has long considered a terrorist extension of the outlawed PKK. Currently Turkey's military is reportedly mustering forces and tanks along deployment points at the Syrian border. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has said the military is "intensely" preparing for a major operation against Syrian Kurds in Manbij, Aleppo Governorate, and to the east of the Euphrates. Turkish Anadolu Agency reported the defense minister promised to "bury" the Syrian Kurds.

Prior to Trump's announced Syria pullout, the promised large-scale assault and ongoing future operations would have eventually brought American troops and advisers under fire, who've found themselves in the awkward position since entering Syria of training Syrian Kurdish militias on the one hand and coordinating broadly with NATO ally Turkey on the other.

However, Trump's announced troop withdrawal has defused the crisis of American troops being caught in the middle, and along with it the possibility of a U.S.-Turkey clash. Thus the U.S. withdrawal is considered a major concession for Erdogan, which no doubt Trump was hoping to maintain as a key ally against Iran. That hope has now been dashed with Erdogan's speech Thursday.

Joshua Landis
✔
@joshua_landis
· Dec 19, 2018

Replying to @joshua_landis
Lack of US coordination is disturbing, but perhaps Nat Sec people should consult w Trump? Dept of St and NSC merrily made policy on Syria beneath Pres's radar. Only when Turkey escalated, drawing Trump in, did Trump reiterate what he's been saying for some time: bring troops home

Joshua Landis
✔
@joshua_landis

Turkey has undermined US policy of confronting Iran. Why? B/c US attacked Turkey by arming & training YPG/Kurds. Erdogan's drip, drip Khashoggi strategy brilliant. Kicked legs out fr under Trump's Saudi policy. Congress is voting against Saudi. US needs TR on board to hurt Iran.

47
2:25 PM - Dec 19, 2018

This also comes a day after the U.S. approved the sale of $3.5bn in missiles to Turkey amid negotiations for Ankara to buy anti-air defense missiles from Russia. Last Wednesday the State Department informed Congress that the plan includes transfer of 80 Patriot missiles, 60 PAC-3 missile interceptors and related equipment. A number of analysts were quick to note the deal had been firmed up immediately prior to Trump's announced Syria pullout.

But despite the multi-billion-dollar weapons sale, hawks in Congress and in the president's own administration will use Erdogan's Thursday announcement to "stand by Iran" as fodder for arguing against bringing the troops home, and continuing Syria ground operations in order to counter Iranian expansion.

By Zerohedge

View reactions (380)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/12/taliban-trains-scores-of-commandos-at-camp.php

Taliban trains scores of ‘commandos’ at camp

By Bill Roggio | December 26, 2018 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio

Bill Roggio
✔
@billroggio


Taliban video of its "commandos" training at a camp in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Wherever it is, the Taliban isn't afraid of being targeted. Flags flying, etc. Video produced by Haqqani Network's Manba’ Al-Jihad Media.

258
7:42 AM - Dec 26, 2018

The Taliban has released video of its “commandos” training at a camp purportedly located in Afghanistan. The video is the latest in a string of Taliban propaganda that shows its fighters in training exercises.

The video was produced by Manba’ Al-Jihad Media and a short clip of it (above) was published on Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid’s Twitter feed. The video bears the logo of Manba’ Al-Jihad Media, the main propaganda outlet for the Haqqani Network, an integral faction of the Taliban that is closely allied with al Qaeda and other foreign terrorist groups. Manba’ Al-Jihad Media was integrated into the Taliban’s propaganda apparatus years ago. Sirajuddin Haqqani, the head of the Haqqani Network, is the Taliban’s deputy emir. His father, Jalaluddin, who recently died, is featured in the video.

At least 70 “commandos” were shown during various stages of training, including marching and calisthenics. At one point, in a scene reminiscent of al Qaeda training videos from decades ago, the trainees jumped through a flaming hoop. The fighters were dressed in new uniforms and their faces were covered in white balaclavas.

The location of the camp was not disclosed, but the tweet indicates it is located in Afghanistan. The camp does appear to be transitory; no fixed buildings were shown and the Taliban fighters trained in a well-used opening surrounded by trees.

While the Taliban claimed the camp is in Afghanistan, it is possible it is located in Pakistan, where the Taliban operates unhindered. If it is located in Afghanistan, its existence further highlights the deteriorating security situation. If it is in Pakistan, then it highlights that country’s unwavering support for the Taliban.

Wherever the camp is located, it is clear that the Taliban are not concerned about coming under attack. Taliban flags were prominently displayed throughout the training area, including on seven vehicles that are parked in an orderly fashion.

Background on jihadist training camps in Afghanistan
The Taliban has publicly flaunted at least 20 of its training camps since the end of 2014. In late 2015, the Taliban announced that its Khalid bin Walid Camp operated 12 satellite facilities throughout Afghanistan, and had the capacity to “train up to 2,000 recruits at a single time.” Additionally, it said the Khalid bin Walid Camp “trains recruits in eight provinces (Helmand, Kandahar, Ghazni, Ghor, Saripul, Faryab, Farah and Maidan Wardak) and “has around 300 military trainers and scholars.”

Other jihadist groups, including al Qaeda, are also known to operate camps inside Afghanistan. In 2015, the US raided an al Qaeda camp in Bermal district in Paktika, and two others in the Shorabak district in Kandahar province. The outgoing commander of US Forces in Afghanistan, General John Campbell, said that one of the camps in Shorabak was the largest in Afghanistan since the US invaded in 2001. Al Qaeda has also operated camps in Kunar and Nuristan.

Harakat-ul-Mujahideen, a Pakistani jihadist group closely allied with al Qaeda, “operates terrorist training camps in eastern Afghanistan,” the US government stated in 2014. The Turkistan Islamic Party, the Islamic Jihad Union, and the Imam Bukhari Jamaat, an Uzbek jihadist group that operates in both Syria and Afghanistan, have all claimed to operate camps inside Afghanistan. Coalition forces have also raided Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan suicide training camps in Samagan and Sar-i-Pul in 2011.

Additionally, the US military has targeted training centers used by the Turkistan Islamic Party and the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan over the past several months. In Feb., the US military said it struck “Taliban training facilities in Badakhshan province, preventing the planning and rehearsal of terrorist acts near the border with China and Tajikistan by such organizations as the East Turkistan Islamic Movement and others.”

In March, the US military hit the Ghazi Camp in Kunar province, which was used by the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, or TTP. The son of Mullah Fazlullah, the emir of the TTP, and two commanders, including the camp’s trainer of suicide bombers, were reportedly killed.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/pro-turkish-rebels-reinforce-near-city-northern-syria-145054800.html

Pro-Turkish rebels reinforce near city in northern Syria

AFP • December 26, 2018

Jarabulus (Syria) (AFP) - Pro-Turkish armed groups have reinforced their presence on the outskirts of the city of Manbij in northern Syria as Ankara threatens a new offensive against Kurdish forces, sources said Wednesday.

Turkey announced in mid-December that it would launch a fresh military campaign against the Kurdish People's Protection Units, a militia in Syria that Ankara considers a terrorist group.

The United States has backed Kurdish fighters in northern Syria as part of an international coalition against the Islamic State jihadist group.

But a surprise announcement by US President Donald Trump a week ago that he will pull American troops out of the country has left the Kurds exposed to attack.

Pro-Turkish factions and opposing fighters in the city of Manbij are "consolidating their positions and massing reinforcements on the demarcation line" separating the two sides, said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based war monitor.

"Military operations haven't started -- there are no clashes or skirmishes," he said.

Turkey has massed reinforcements at the border, and dispatched tanks and armoured vehicles near Manbij, which hosts American troops and where Ankara says Kurdish forces also remain present.

Dozens of pro-Turkish fighters equipped with assault rifles were seen near the city of Jarablus in mud-splattered pick-up trucks on Tuesday, travelling to join sectors near the demarcation line, an AFP correspondent said.

But the situation was calm, he added.

- 'Final preparations for battle' -
The pro-Turkish Al-Jaish al-Watani rebel coalition said Wednesday it was finalising preparations for the planned offensive.

"We are in final preparations for the battle of Manbij, then (the battle) east of the Euphrates" river, the group's spokesman Yussef Hammud said on Wednesday.

He told AFP that the offensive would be in line with the "US withdrawal from the region".

"We await the political agreements between the US and Turkey concerning the withdrawal", he said.

The YPG says it has already left Manbij, but Ankara maintains that there has been no pullout of Kurdish forces from the city.

Sherfane Darwish, a spokesman for the Manbij Military Council -- a faction affiliated to the Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces - has said his forces are on a "state of alert" due to military movements by Turkey and its Syrian rebel allies.

"There is an increased mobilisation of reinforcements at the border, and we are monitoring that", he told AFP.

"Patrols by the (international) coalition are still taking place -- nothing has changed. We are ready to repulse any attack", he said.

More than 360,000 people have been killed since Syria's war erupted in 2011.

The brutal repression of anti-government protests was followed by various countries intervening militarily in support of and against President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

43 reactions

 

[danielboon]

ELINT News
‏

@ELINTNews
3h3 hours ago
More
#UPDATE: Earlier tonight sirens sounded at the US Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone after an apparent mortar attack on the compound caused explosions to rock the area

 

[danielboon]

AP report: Israeli official confirms Syria airstrikes as Russia objects
Associated Press|Published: 12.27.18 , 08:16
An Israeli security official on Wednesday confirmed responsibility for overnight airstrikes in Syria, saying the air force had hit a series of targets involved in Iranian arms transfers to the Hezbollah militant group.

Russia had criticized the airstrike, saying it endangered civilian flights. The comments highlighted the increasingly tense relations between Israel and Russia, which have grown strained since the September downing of a Russian plane by Syrian forces responding to another Israeli raid.

The Israeli official said the air force had attacked several Iranian targets in three main locations late Tuesday and early Wednesday. He said the targets were primarily storage and logistics facilities used by archenemy Iran to ship weapons to Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Lebanese group that fought Israel in a 2006 war.https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5434315,00.html

 

[danielboon]

Trump: 'we can use Iraq as base for Syria operations'
Reuters|Published: 12.26.18 , 23:33
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday defended his decision to withdraw US troops from Syria during an unannounced visit to Iraq, and said that the US would remain in Iraq, adding, "In fact, we could use this as the base if we wanted to do something in Syria."

Reuters reported last week that the Pentagon was considering using special operations teams to target Islamic State militants in Syria, based out of Iraq.https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5434190,00.html

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-hypersonic-missile-travels-nearly-191800459.html

Russia’s New Hypersonic Missile Travels Nearly Two Miles a Second

Kyle Mizokami, Popular Mechanics Wed, Dec 26 11:18 AM

World
Russia’s New Hypersonic Missile Travels Nearly Two Miles a Second
Kyle Mizokami,Popular Mechanics Wed, Dec 26 11:18 AM PST

From Popular Mechanics

Russia has tested a new hypersonic anti-ship missile that can travel a blistering 6,138 miles an hour, or 1.7 miles a second. The missile, known as Zircon, will attack ships at sea and land-based targets. It is in all likelihood unstoppable by modern air defenses.

CNBC reports that Russia has tested the Zircon anti-ship missile five times, with the latest test occuring on December 10. The December test hit a top speed of Mach 8, or 6,138 miles an hour. CNBC quoted two anonymous U.S. government officials with direct knowledge of an intelligence report on the test. The latest test proved the Russians were capable of achieving sustained flight-a difficult goal in hypersonic flight research.

The network’s source also said that it was clear Zircon was being diversified away from being a purely anti-ship missile to also strike land targets. It is expected to enter production in 2021 and service with the Russian Navy in 2022.

Not much is known about Zircon. According to Naval Technology, development of the missile goes back to 2011. Under development by NPO Mashinostroeniya Military-Industrial Corporation, it could be a domestic version of the Indian-Russian BrahMos II hypersonic missile system. Naval Technology claims the missile is known internally in Russia as 3K22 (the equivalent of calling a Sidewinder air-to-air missile the AIM-9X).

Naval Technology quotes BrahMos II as having a range of 300 kilometers, or 186 miles. That’s likely a number chosen in order for both countries to adhere to the Missile Control Technology Regime, an international agreement which seeks to slow the spread of nuclear missile technology by limiting the range of exportable missiles capable of carrying one ton warheads to 186 miles. India and Russia are both MCTR signatories. Missiles built by either country for domestic use, however, would have no such range limitation.

According to Russian state media source TASS, Zircon is designed to launch from vertical launch silos on several types of Russian Navy ships, including the Steregushchy-class Corvettes and Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates. The battlecruisers Admiral Nakhimov and Pyotr Velikiy will also get Zircon during scheduled refits. Per Naval Recoginition, both battlecruisers should get the ability to launch up to ten Zircon missiles each.

The real threat, however, is from the Russian Navy’s new Yasen-class submarines. According to TASS the same vertical launch missile launchers that allow the Yasen class to carry up to 40 anti-ship missiles also allow the submarines to carry Zircon. Unlike surface ships, which could be tracked, a Yasen-class submarine could launch them from an unexpected location and direction.

This gets at the real problem behind Zircon: it’s probably impossible to shoot down at this point, and in a conflict with the U.S. Navy will likely penetrate American defenses and sink ships-if it works as advertised. Although the U.S. Navy has a variety of defenses, from SM-3 ballistic missile interceptors to SM-6 surface-to-air missiles, each is optimized against certain threats. While SM-3 can take on incoming ballistic missiles moving at a similar speed, it does so at the borders of space, far above Zircon’s likely flight profile. SM-6 can shoot down short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles and aircraft, but whether or not it can hit something moving at 1.7 miles a second is unknown.

So, existing missiles can each tackle part of the problem, but not the whole problem of tackling Zircon. U.S. missile defenses will likely need significant hardware and software upgrades to down an incoming Zircon. For now, the most effective means of neutralizing these hypersonic missiles is to destroy the platforms that carry them before launch.

Zircon’s warhead could have a high explosive warhead, nuclear warhead, or no warhead at all. An object smashing into a target at nearly two miles a second will do significant damage, so a 2,000 pound non-explosive tungsten “warhead” would probably be an effective anti-ship warhead. High explosive is always an option.

Where Zircon could really excel is as a nuclear weapon. Fired from a submarine off the Eastern Seaboard, a hypersonic missile could hit a target at 186 miles in just 109 seconds.

Zircon is just one example of a slew of hypersonic weapons under development by the U.S., Russia, and China. Hypersonic research is pushing the boundaries of known engineering and science, but it may be in everyone’s interest to ban their testing or deployment.

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[Housecarl]

Hummm…...

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/german-army-floats-plan-recruit-foreigners-150347229.html

German army floats plan to recruit foreigners

Reuters
11 hours ago

BERLIN (Reuters) - Struggling to fill its ranks, Germany's military is drawing up plans to recruit nationals from other European countries as part of a drive to beef up the armed forces.

Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen wants to recruit Poles, Italians and Romanians, magazine Der Spiegel said, citing a ministry document.

The German military, or Bundeswehr, has stepped up its recruitment efforts as part of a broader reset following Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Last year, Germany said it would increase the size of its armed forces to 198,000 active soldiers by 2024 from 179,000.

Pressure on Berlin mounted again in July when U.S. President Donald Trump told a NATO summit that Washington could withdraw support for the alliance if Europe did not boost military spending.

According to the classified ministry document, some 255,000 Poles, 185,000 Italians and 155,000 Romanians, aged between 18 and 40, live in Germany - about half all foreign EU nationals. If 10 percent of them could be interested in the Bundeswehr, that could generate 50,000 new applicants, it said.

It did not say if they would serve alongside Germans in regular regiments, or would form their on units akin to the French Foreign Legion.

There was no comment available from the ministry when it was contacted by Reuters.

The Defence Ministry wants to limit the group of potential recruits to those who have already lived in Germany for several years and speak fluent German, Der Spiegel said.

Such limits would aim to minimize concern among other European Union countries about Germany luring their potential soldiers by offering better pay.

The ministry had sounded out defense attaches in other EU countries about the plan in recent months with "very different results", Der Spiegel said, with Eastern European countries particularly worried about the impact on their own recruitment.

Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz told the magazine that military service was "closely tied to nationality".

To help attract new recruits, the Bundeswehr is also targeting youngsters in Germany, where the army remains a sensitive career choice more than 70 years after World War Two.

(Writing by Paul Carrel; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

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[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-with-plotting-terrorist-crime-idUSKCN1OQ129

World News December 27, 2018 / 6:05 AM / Updated 17 hours ago

Three Central Asians charged in Sweden with plotting terrorist crime

2 Min Read

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Three Central Asian men have been charged in Sweden with plotting to commit a terrorist crime as well as - along with three others - financing the Islamic State militant group, prosecutors said on Thursday.

“Three (of the suspects) acquired and stored large quantities of chemicals and other equipment in order to, among other things, kill and harm other people. If the terrorist crime had been carried out, it could have seriously hurt Sweden,” the Stockholm prosecutor’s office said in a statement.

It said the six men were from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, both mainly Muslim, former Soviet republics.

Five are in Swedish custody while the sixth man was freed pending trial; all have denied wrongdoing, the statement said.

Thomas Olson, lawyer for one of the accused, told Swedish Radio his client had bought a large amount of chemicals from a bankrupt firm in order to try to sell it on, without success.

“My client left very detailed explanations as to why he was in possession of these chemicals, explanations that have been confirmed by all outsiders,” Olson said.

Prosecutors were not available for further comment.

In June, Rakhmat Akilov, an Uzbek asylum seeker in Sweden, was sentenced to life in prison for killing five people in Stockholm with a hijacked truck in 2017.

He stated during the trial that he wanted to punish Sweden for its part in the global fight against Islamic State, which has claimed a string of deadly attacks across western Europe since 2015.

Reporting by Johan Ahlander and Johan Sennero; Editing by Mark Heinrich

 

[night driver]

ELINT News Retweeted
Barbara Starr
‏Verified account @barbarastarrcnn
26m26 minutes ago

Defense Secretary James Mattis is in his third floor Pentagon office on Christmas Day working.
https://twitter.com/elintnews?lang=en

Barbi Starr(kins) is usually pretty well dialed in.

One would think that she would understand that with Jim Mattis, 25-12-18 is just pretty much another day.

 

[Zagdid]

Russian hypersonic missile scientists arrested, accused of treason

https://www.news.com.au/technology/...n/news-story/83c9381b58311a3ca4fc2f603be3d8fb (fair use)
Jamie Seidel, AP News Corp Australia Network JANUARY 1, 2019 10:37 AM

Rusian President Vladimir Putin lauded the test as a ‘game changer’, a ‘big success and victory’.

Russia had just fired its hypersonic ‘Avangard’ ballistic guided missile system. And everything seemed to work fine.

Putin declared Russia to be ‘untouchable’ as no other nation had such ‘invincible’nuclear-capable missiles can skip through the upper atmosphere at up to 20 times faster than the speed of sound.

Put simply, no defense system exists that can track it fast enough, react fast enough or hit it fast enough to prevent it reaching its target.

The Avangard (Vanguard) glider, which can reportedly change course mid-flight to confuse opponents, hit its target some 6000km from the launch site.

“It was hard and time-consuming work which required breakthrough solutions in principal areas, and all this was done by our scientists, designers and engineers,” Putin said.

What he neglected to say was many of these are now behind bars.

They’re charged with treason.
They’re accused of leaking secrets to other nations.

The Daily Beast reports that at least 10 Roskosmos (Russia’s space agency) researchers had their homes raided and were seized by secret police.

Among the Federal Security Service (FSB) detainees was reportedly 75-year-old Viktor Kudryavtsev, a specialist intrinsicly involved in the construction of two hypersonic weapons systems — Avangard and the air-launched Kinzhal (Dagger).

Kudryavtsev’s lawyer says the top specialist was detained last week. He faces 20 years in prison for sending two emails to European colleagues in 2013.

These discussed simulations of one of the key challenges of hypersonic vehicles — the intense friction caused by airflow over its surface during ultra-high speed flight. They were directed at European researchers at the Von Karman Institute working with him at the time on a joint Russian-European Union Roscosmos/ESA space project.

The FSB now accuses him of leaking key military secrets to NATO.

His lawyer told The Daily Beast that masked uniformed officials subjected Kudryavtsev to “unusually abusive and harmful treatment”.

SPECIAL REPORT: How hypersonic weapons will change warfare forever

“Russian state institutions, including the Foreign Ministry and the Defence Ministry, have lists of secrets, which are also secret, so scientists often have no idea what they are not supposed to speak about,” Pavlov said. “Kudryavtsev could not know back in 2013, when the government approved his research with foreign partners, that the Von Karman Institute would become a number one enemy.”

Details of the other detainees are unknown beyond their involvement in the hypersonic weapons program.

A year ago, Kudryavtsev’s business colleague — 76-year-old designer Vladimir Lapygin — was also arrested and convicted of leaking key hypersonic simulation software to the Chinese.

NUCLEAR STANDOFF

Amid rising tensions with the West, the Vladimir Putin has focused on updating Russia’s military arsenals.

It can no longer afford overwhelming numbers under crushing sanctions imposed over its annexation of Crimea. Instead, the Kremlin is focusing on producing game-changing new ‘super weapons’.

Putin used his state-of-the-nation speech in March 2018 to present an array of new nuclear weapons, including the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle and an underwater drone fitted with an atomic warhead designed to create a devastating tsunami.

Vladimir Frolov, a Moscow-based foreign policy expert, says Putin’s statements — then and now — are part of his efforts to persuade the West to sit down for talks.

“His goal is to win attention, fear and respect from the West, to get the right of veto regarding Western policies,” Frolov said. “He’s pushing for talks on Russia’s conditions and without any unilateral concessions.”

Putin warned that the proposed US exit from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (which the Kremlin is accused of already breaching with some of its new arsenal) would trigger a Russian response.

In an ominous statement this month, he lamented that global fears of a nuclear war have ebbed, leaving the world blind to a rising doomsday threat.

Stanovaya noted that Putin’s talk reflected growing instability in the absence of a common agenda between Russia and the West.

“Moving further along the same track would inevitably lead to the point where it would become more difficult to control the situation regarding nuclear weapons,” Stanovaya said. “Putin believes that nuclear weapons are Russia’s ultimate argument that should influence Western politicians’ thinking.”

 

[danielboon]

ELINT News Retweeted
Alex Kokcharov
Alex Kokcharov
@AlexKokcharov
#BREAKING! In #Magnitogorsk, #Russia, a residential building is reportedly being evacuated due to reported bomb threat:

В Магнитогорске оцепили жилой дом. Жильцы рассказали об эвакуации из-за сообщений о бомбе — Meduza
meduza.io
5:01 PM · Jan 1, 2019 ·

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/taliban-kill-21-afghan-security-forces-threaten-city-150001268.html

World

Taliban kill 21 Afghan security forces, threaten city: official

AFP
5 hours ago

Taliban fighters killed more than 20 Afghan security forces in simultaneous raids on a provincial capital and district in northern Afghanistan, an official said Tuesday, as the city braced for further violence.

Hundreds of militants were outside Sar-e-Pul city, which provincial governor spokesman Zabihullah Amani said was at risk of falling to the Taliban if reinforcements were not sent.

The Taliban have stepped up attacks on security forces across the country, slaughtering police and soldiers in record numbers, as the threat of a US drawdown complicates American-led efforts to end the 17-year conflict.

"The enemy is still amassing forces outside the city," Amani told AFP.

"We have deployed all the forces available in the city, but no reinforcements have arrived from outside so far.

"The people inside the city are very worried."

Taliban fighters launched the attacks on Sar-e-Pul and neighbouring Sayad district on Monday night, which Amani said were aimed at seizing control of several oil wells on the outskirts of the city.

At least 21 local forces, including police and intelligence, were killed and another 23 wounded in the attacks, Amani said.

"They have attacked the city many times in the past, but this time the threat is more serious," he said.

A security official, who spoke to AFP on the condition of anonymity, put the death toll slightly lower at between 15 and 20 members of local forces.

Kabul-based interior ministry deputy spokesman Nasrat Rahimi confirmed there had been casualties, but would not provide details.

He said reinforcements had been deployed to Sar-e-Pul and dismissed concerns that the provincial capital was at risk of falling to the insurgents.

The Taliban confirmed the attacks, saying their fighters had captured three checkpoints and killed or wounded 50 members of the security forces.

Afghanistan's largest militant group made significant territorial gains in 2018, including overrunning Ghazni city -- a few hours' drive from Kabul -- which they held for several days before being pushed back with the help of US airpower.

At the time, officials said Ghazni remained in government hands. But residents told AFP that the insurgents were in the streets, burning buildings and targeting civilians.

The Taliban's increased aggression on the battlefield coincided with a flurry of diplomatic efforts aimed at bringing the group to the negotiating table.

In recent days, Taliban representatives have met with Iran, as Tehran makes a more concerted and open push for peace ahead of a possible US drawdown.

The Taliban delegation discussed with Iran "the post-occupation situation, restoration of peace and security in Afghanistan and the region", the militants said in a statement posted on social media and emailed to journalists on Tuesday.

It signals a growing confidence among the Taliban that US troops will pull out of Afghanistan, after US officials last month told various media outlets that President Donald Trump had decided to slash the number of boots on the ground.

View reactions (246)

 

[danielboon]

This happened yesterday

Bob
Bob
@anonanonanon007
#Russia has stated the #explosion in the apartment in #Magnitogorsk was a #Terrorist attack, below is footage from RT of another mini bus explosion in the same city. gunshots can be heard and the following #UK media don't report
@SkyNews

@BBCWorld
The following media includes potentially sensitive content. Change settings
4:11 PM · Jan 1, 2019 · Putin is there now

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-military-taliban-fighters-kill-4-security-forces-163212804.html

Associated Press

Pakistan military: Taliban fighters kill 4 security forces

Associated Press
5 hours ago

QUETTA, Pakistan (AP) — Pakistan's military and a Taliban spokesman say four militants stormed a security forces facility in the southwestern town of Loralai, triggering a battle that left four security forces and the attackers dead.

In a statement, the military said the "terrorists," who included a suicide bomber, failed Tuesday to enter a main residential area where families of the soldiers and security forces live.

The assailants instead entered another compound near a security checkpoint, the statement said, where three of the assailants were shot and killed by troops and the fourth, the suicide bomber, detonated his explosives.

Mohammad Khurasani, spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility for the attack without giving details.

View reactions (3)

 

[Housecarl]

Bob
Bob
@anonanonanon007
#Russia has stated the #explosion in the apartment in #Magnitogorsk was a #Terrorist attack, below is footage from RT of another mini bus explosion in the same city. gunshots can be heard and the following #UK media don't report
@SkyNews

@BBCWorld
The following media includes potentially sensitive content. Change settings
4:11 PM · Jan 1, 2019 ·

ABC Radio News at the top of the hour mentioned a child being casevac'd to Moscow after being under the rubble for 36 hours but no mention of what happened.

 

[danielboon]

ABC Radio News at the top of the hour mentioned a child being casevac'd to Moscow after being under the rubble for 36 hours but no mention of what happened.

Conflicting stories some say it was a gas explosion while others are saying a terrorist attack and as I mentioned in another post Putin is there.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/taiwans-tsai-says-taiwanese-want-maintain-self-rule-021946077.html

President Tsai says Taiwanese want to maintain self-rule

RALPH JENNINGS, Associated Press 17 hours ago

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Taiwanese treasure their autonomy from China, the leader of the self-governing island said Tuesday, warning city and county officials to be open about and exercise caution in any dialogue with the Chinese.

President Tsai Ing-wen's remarks come after major gains by a Beijing-friendly opposition party in local elections in late November.

"The election results absolutely don't mean Taiwan's basic public opinion wants us to give up our self-rule," she said in an 11-minute New Year's address at the presidential office. "And they absolutely don't mean that the Taiwanese people want us to give ground on our autonomy."

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since the Chinese civil war of the 1940s, when Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists lost to Mao Zedong's Communists. The Nationalists rebased their government to Taiwan, but China insists that the two sides must eventually unite, by force if necessary.

The Nationalist Party, which in recent years has favored closer ties with Beijing, won 15 of 22 major seats in the local elections, reversing an advantage held by Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai takes a more guarded view toward relations with China.

"What's really needed between the two sides is a practical understanding of the differences between values, beliefs and lifestyles," she said.

China resents Tsai for declining to recognize its condition for dialogue: that each side sees itself as part of one China. Beijing has sent military aircraft near the island, squeezed Taiwan's foreign diplomacy and scaled back Taiwan-bound group tourism.

A New Year's statement from the Chinese official in charge of Taiwan affairs accused Tsai's party of obstruction and deliberate provocation.

"The broad masses of Taiwan compatriots are strongly dissatisfied with the hostility caused by the DPP authorities across the Taiwan Strait," Liu Jieyi, the director of the Taiwan Affairs Office, said, referring to Tsai's party by its acronym.

"To achieve the complete reunification of the motherland and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the common aspiration of all Chinese people," he said in a message published in an official magazine.

Experts say that China will likely offer economic incentives to Taiwanese cities and counties where officials take pro-Beijing views. Tsai warned officials against any reliance on "vague political preconditions" or "forced submission of secret passwords," a reference to giving away secrets.

"We don't oppose normal cross-strait exchanges, and even more we don't oppose city-to-city exchanges," she said. "However, exchanges across the strait need to be healthy and they need to be normal."

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to give a speech Wednesday aimed at Taiwan on the 40th anniversary of the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan," a pro-unification statement from China that called for steps to end the isolation between the two rivals.

Tsai would probably condemn any local official talking privately with Xi, said Shane Lee, political scientist at Chang Jung Christian University in Taiwan.

"She thinks that's not only immoral but even illegal, because foreign affairs are the power of the central government, not the local government," Lee said.

Lo Chih-cheng, who heads the international department of the Democratic Progressive Party, said Tsai cannot do more with China, because Beijing would credit any progress to the Nationalists.

She will do nothing radical to provoke China, but some voters are looking for more action, he said in an early December interview. "People enjoy the status quo, but it's not enough to win the elections," Lo said.

Tsai also announced that her government was introducing a three-year plan to attract Taiwanese investors home from China, where some face import tariffs raised by Washington in the U.S.-China trade dispute.

She said that Taiwan wants China to share data on an outbreak of African swine fever. Taiwanese officials are on alert against any infection on their island, which lies 160 kilometers (100 miles) across the Taiwan Strait.
___

Associated Press researcher Henry Hou in Beijing contributed to this story.

View reactions (21)

 

[danielboon]

ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
#UPDATE: Check our tweet and report, no single mention of evident heavy firefight reported by other smaller outlets and eyewitnesses
Quote Tweet
RT
@RT_com
Minibus bursts in flames killing 3 in Russian city where house collapsed
Details: (link: https://on.rt.com/9lln) on.rt.com/9lln
1:07
12K views
Embedded video
4:03 PM · Jan 1, 2019 · Twitter for iPhone
11
Retweets
6
Likes
Michel
Michel
@Michel21968
·
1h
Replying to
@ELINTNews
'heavy firefight' is overstated.
ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
There were many gunshots. You’d have to be deaf or in denial to miss it.
Michel
Michel
@Michel21968
·
1h
Indeed some shots were fired. Some.
ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
Approx 20
oneTwiProgrammer
oneTwiProgrammer
@interruptedC
·
1h
Replying to
@ELINTNews
find some one who speaks russian. in the background clearly heard voice saying "it is fireworks exploding".
ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
They say that because it’s just happened & like in any other incident there is Initial confusion. It’s not unreasonable to assume they don’t know what the hell is going on, it’s perfectly normal in these situations in fact. Local media confirm firefight:
Quote Tweet
Alex Kokcharov
@AlexKokcharov
In #Magnitogorsk, #Russia, a minibus exploded earlier tonight. It was initially reported that it was an explosion of a gas canister, but now local media report that there was an exchange of fire between the police and alleged terrorists:

(link: https://tvrain.ru/news/smi_marshrut...&utm_campaign=instant&utm_content=tvrain-main) tvrain.ru/news/smi_marsh…
oneTwiProgrammer
oneTwiProgrammer
@interruptedC
·
1h
There're already 3 different videos of explosion and dozens of eyewitnesses who casually observes site of action without any fear. There're only 2 non local SMM who are saying opposite. They(SMM) are nor big, nor respectable.

 

[Housecarl]

ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
#UPDATE: Check our tweet and report, no single mention of evident heavy firefight reported by other smaller outlets and eyewitnesses
Quote Tweet
RT
@RT_com
Minibus bursts in flames killing 3 in Russian city where house collapsed
Details: (link: https://on.rt.com/9lln) on.rt.com/9lln
1:07
12K views
Embedded video
4:03 PM · Jan 1, 2019 · Twitter for iPhone
11
Retweets
6
Likes
Michel
Michel
@Michel21968
·
1h
Replying to
@ELINTNews
'heavy firefight' is overstated.
ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
There were many gunshots. You’d have to be deaf or in denial to miss it.
Michel
Michel
@Michel21968
·
1h
Indeed some shots were fired. Some.
ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
Approx 20
oneTwiProgrammer
oneTwiProgrammer
@interruptedC
·
1h
Replying to
@ELINTNews
find some one who speaks russian. in the background clearly heard voice saying "it is fireworks exploding".
ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
1h
They say that because it’s just happened & like in any other incident there is Initial confusion. It’s not unreasonable to assume they don’t know what the hell is going on, it’s perfectly normal in these situations in fact. Local media confirm firefight:
Quote Tweet
Alex Kokcharov
@AlexKokcharov
In #Magnitogorsk, #Russia, a minibus exploded earlier tonight. It was initially reported that it was an explosion of a gas canister, but now local media report that there was an exchange of fire between the police and alleged terrorists:

(link: https://tvrain.ru/news/smi_marshrut...&utm_campaign=instant&utm_content=tvrain-main) tvrain.ru/news/smi_marsh…
oneTwiProgrammer
oneTwiProgrammer
@interruptedC
·
1h
There're already 3 different videos of explosion and dozens of eyewitnesses who casually observes site of action without any fear. There're only 2 non local SMM who are saying opposite. They(SMM) are nor big, nor respectable.

http://taboogenocide.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Magnitogorsk-1500-km-to-Moscow.jpg

http://russiatrek.org/images/map/chelyabinsk-oblast-map.gif

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fighting-erupts-between-rival-insurgent-groups-syria-141958429.html

World

Fighting erupts between rival insurgent groups in Syria

Associated Press 5 hours ago

BEIRUT (AP) — Clashes broke out between two powerful insurgent groups in northern Syria on Tuesday, leaving up to seven people dead in the most serious fighting in months in the last major rebel stronghold in the country.

The al-Qaida-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — Arabic for Levant Liberation Committee — and the Turkey-backed Nour el-Din el-Zinki group blamed each other for triggering the fighting in the northern province of Aleppo.

Nour el-Din el-Zinki is part of a 15-member coalition known as the National Liberation Front that has clashed with extremists in the past. Other factions in the NLF have been sending reinforcement to rebel-held parts of Aleppo to back their allies against al-Qaida-linked gunmen raising fears that the fighting will escalate.

According to activist collectives in northern Syria, both groups used heavy weapons, including tanks, in the fighting.

The rebel-held area is mostly in the northwestern province of Idlib that has witnessed sporadic violence since a Russia and Turkey agreed on a truce in September that averted a government offensive on the area.

Idlib has been plagued by assassinations over the past months that left scores of people dead including al-Qaida-linked fighters.

The government-controlled Syrian Central Military Media said the al-Qaida-linked fighters captured the villages of Taqad, Saadiyah and Habata. It added that fighting is ongoing in the town of Daret Azzeh.

The Levant Liberation Committee said Nour el-Din el-Zinki militants shot dead five people, including four of its fighters, last week. It added that a local court released an official with the Nour el-Din el-Zinki after questioning him leading to tensions in the area.

The clashes are the first between the two former allies since they reached a deal to end similar fighting in October.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says two civilians, including a nurse at a clinic in Daret Azzeh, were killed. SCMM said five al-Qaida-linked fighters were killed as well.

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