WAR 12-17-2016-to-12-23-2016_____THEWINDSofWAR

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

I just noticed my tag line's changed to "On TB every waking moment" from "Has no life..." Interesting and scary as well considering how close that both are to being correct...... :eek:

(246) 11-26-2016-to-12-02-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...02-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(247) 12-03-2016-to-12-09-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...09-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(248) 12-10-2016-to-12-16-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...16-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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China steals US underwater drone.
Started by Lurker‎, Yesterday 08:25 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?508030-China-steals-US-underwater-drone./page2

Duterte: "Bye Bye America, We Don't Need Your Money, China Said They Will Provide"
Started by BetterLateThanNever‎, Today 11:00 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-Your-Money-China-Said-They-Will-Provide-quot

Sweden going to WAR footing against RUSSIA ?
Started by Countrymouse‎, Today 12:18 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?508135-Sweden-going-to-WAR-footing-against-RUSSIA

Putin Lashes Out At Obama: "Show Some Proof Or Shut Up"
Started by China Connection‎, Today 12:38 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...At-Obama-quot-Show-Some-Proof-Or-Shut-Up-quot

Main Russia/Ukraine invasion thread - 8/11/16 Ukraine Military On "Combat" Alert
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ne-Military-On-quot-Combat-quot-Alert/page455

The Syrian War Condensed (For Almost Dummies) [Good Chart!!!]
Started by Buick Electra‎, Yesterday 10:19 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...War-Condensed-(For-Almost-Dummies)-Good-Chart!!!

Reuters: U.S.-led strikes destroy tanks, air defenses near Syria's Palmyra
Started by Possible Impact‎, Yesterday 08:14 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...stroy-tanks-air-defenses-near-Syria-s-Palmyra

Turkey’s Erdoğan goes after the pope and the Vatican
Started by Ragnarok‎, Yesterday 03:14 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...3287%3Ban-goes-after-the-pope-and-the-Vatican
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Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.ladailypost.com/content/roger-time-give-deterrence-rethink

Roger This: Time To Give Deterrence A Rethink
Submitted by Bonnie J. Gordon on December 17, 2016 - 8:01am
By ROGER SNODGRASS
Los Alamos Daily Post

There is a big difference between a nuclear deterrent and nuclear deterrence theory. The nuclear deterrent refers to the weapons, programs and systems capable of exacting an unacceptable toll on the country or party committing an initial strike.

Deterrence theory describes how one country or party prevents another from using weapons of mass destruction by threatening to use the deterrent if attacked. We say “party” these days because factions of a country or organizations without a country might get their hands on nuclear weapons sooner or later. This is one of many key conditions that have changed over the years.

Deterrence theory was more predictable during the Cold War, when there were two comparable superpowers. In time the theory evolved into a kind of system of norms for managing nuclear tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union.

The deterrent has to do with things (weapons, hardware, and systems) and capabilities. Deterrence theory is a concept. The things and the concept are frequently mixed together, so that officials involved in the nuclear weapons business might saythey aren’t making the weapons that can blow up the world, but rather the weapons that can keep the world from getting blown up.

In a sense, both sides of this paradox are true. “Deterrence theory has been called one of the most influential products of the social sciences,” according to Christopher H. Achen and Duncan Snidal in a 1989 critique of one of their papers calls “Rational Deterrence Theory,”

Their frequently cited critique of the theory includes this qualifier: “This is true but misleading. In various ways it is also a case study in how not to design a theory, test it, or apply it.”

A central problem that is rapidly coming to a head is that the theory of nuclear deterrence, while still a critical factor for global security in general, is unraveling.

Although verification techniques have been greatly improved, there will probably always be blind spots in the world. What if one can’t identify the party responsible for a nuclear explosion?

One can’t tweak the algorithm for every combination. According to the crooked logic of deterrence, argues international security professor Patrick Morgan,players must be rational enough to calculate how much an irrational mistake will cost, but if they are actually rational enough, they should know better than to play at all.

For much of this century, political scientists have emphasized the careening challenges deterrence theory now faces, including many more nuclear powers, more nations with nuclear ambitions, more complicated systems of extended deterrence, like the American nuclear umbrella that includes Japan, South Korea and Australia in the Pacific and NATO allies in Europe; and hybrid military strategies along with new weapons technologies that introduce unknown new risks.

With a shift in emphasis away from deterrence, there is an even more dangerous renewed interest by the major powers in designing nuclear weapons that might actually be used, whether as smaller, tacticalmunitions or specialized, precision weapons for striking underground facilities.

This round of modernization aimed at providing some new features, mechanisms, may also open novel avenues for escalation and new twists and turns in the calculus of unpredictable behaviors around the planet.

It’s on about the same level as the video game, called Global Thermonuclear War which has the catch phrase, “Nobody wins. But maybe - just maybe - you can lose the least.”

“I’m sorry to report to you that the likelihood of a nuclear crisis today is greater than it was at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis,” former Defense Secretary William Perry remarked at a nuclear disarmament conference in Santa Fe this month. Perry said he was driven by “a fundamental belief” that “nuclear weapons should never be used again.” He added, “My problem is I don’t know how to make that belief happen.”

In hindsight, it is apparent that the age of nuclear weapons began at Los Alamos as an advanced strategy for winning a war cheaper and with fewer casualties. The arms race accelerated rapidly after World War II when the Soviet Union became a rival power.

Slowly despite perilous moments and continuing risks of accidents and unintentional confrontation, the deterrence theory evolved into to a kind of a shaky security framework that is credited with reducing major power conflict but has been unable to chalk up more than a few grudging arms reductions and highly touted but inadequate steps toward disarmament.

The theory of deterrenceis still doing its voodoo to some extent. It weathered plenty of knocks and has been given a lot of credit, but it never achieved much more than a shared illusion, which a number of scholars have seriously compared to a kind of taboo. Unfortunately, that level of charm won’t hold a candle to the human-genome-crushing power of the atom.

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/12/irans_theater_of_operations_in_latin_america.html

December 17, 2016

Iran’s Theater of Operations in Latin America

By Janet Levy
Comments 7

In Iran’s Strategic Penetration of Latin America (Lexington Books, 2014) authors and global security experts Joseph Humire and Ilan Berman elaborate on Kelly’s position with a collection of essays that provides an alarming look at Iran's penetration of Latin America. That activity began in 1979 as part of Iran’s overall strategy to seek global power and develop nuclear weapons. Latin American experts featured in this revealing volume detail how Iran's infiltration of Latin America has been pursued under the cover of commercial activities and cultural exchanges and has been aided by an alliance and shared militancy with the Latin American Left. The experts maintain that, over more than three decades, Iran has been able to forge strong economic, political, and strategic links to the region.

As the authors explain, Iran began its strategic infiltration of Latin America in 1982. International proxy groups exported Muslim revolutionary ideas using a global network of embassies and mosques under the cover of legitimate commerce and diplomatic, cultural, and religious associations. In this way, the Islamic regime concealed its intelligence activities, claimed diplomatic immunity and gained access to backdoor channels and local governments. Iran’s operatives traveled throughout the region unifying and radicalizing Islamic communities and recruiting, proselytizing and indoctrinating young Latin Americans.

Editor Joseph Humire recounts that in 1983 the regime sent an emissary, Mohsen Rabbani, an Iranian cleric, as a commercial attaché to set up a trade agreement with Argentina, ostensibly to supply halal-certified meat to the Islamic Republic. Rabbani, who in 1994 would become the primary architect of a terrorist attack in Buenos Aires, fostered alliances with local Shiite Muslims, as well as radical activists who wanted to shift power away from democratic alliances and U.S. influence. Trade with Iran helped these activists buy political patronage to advance authoritarian rule and enabled them to funnel mass social spending into their countries and influence elections. As Islamic terrorist entities such as Iran’s proxy, Hizb’allah, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) moved into the region, they joined with local radical groups such as FARC and Shining Path in their anti-Americanism and hatred of Jews and Israel.

The authors explore how, with a large Muslim population in place spewing hatred toward Israel, attention focused on the largest Jewish population in South America, the 230,000 Jews in Argentina. In 1992, a Hizb’allah-linked terrorist group claimed responsibility for bombing the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. In 1994, Hizb'allah committed the deadliest bombing in Argentine history when it bombed the AMIA Jewish community center also in Buenos Aires, killing 89 people and injuring hundreds.

The essay collection insightfully examines the role of Venezuelan dictator, Hugo Chavez. After becoming president in 1999, he forged a close relationship with Iran and hailed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hizb’allah, as a hero. He also demanded criminal prosecution for Israel’s leader, Ariel Sharon, and President George W. Bush for mass murder. Chavez was able to help Iran overcome the hurdles of economic sanctions and engage in both licit and illicit commercial activity, including acquisition of strategic minerals for nuclear weapons development, drug trafficking, and money laundering. Chavez filled his cabinet with Islamists and became a close partner with then-Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. According to the authors, during this period Iranian influence in Latin American countries increased significantly.

Chavez worked closely with Fidel Castro, the first leader to recognize the Islamic republic and to invite Iran to open in Havana its first Latin American embassy. Together, Chavez and Castro sponsored a socialist “Bolivarian Revolution” to establish a “new world order” in which Latin America was part of a global revolution, not unlike the one in Iran. In 2004, they founded the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America or ALBA.

In Iran’s Strategic Penetration of Latin America, the authors examine how, over a decade, ALBA grew in strategic importance in Latin America and helped cause the backsliding of democratic reforms in the region. ALBA’s goal was to create a Latin American coalition under Venezuelan and Cuban rule using non-state actors and transnational organized crime to bring about a post-American world. In 2010, Iran and Syria were admitted to the organization as observer states. Chavez worked with Iran and Hizb’allah to train his military in asymmetric warfare, the use of insurgency forces against established armies. Iran financed an ALBA military training school in Bolivia, as well as Hizb’allah training centers in other countries. Hizb’allah became heavily involved in drug trafficking and money laundering in the tri-border area of Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil. It made millions of dollars, sending cocaine from Mexico and Columbia to the Middle East and Europe. Hizb’allah used its presence in Latin America to raise money for its global operations from the Lebanese and Syrian diasporas and to recruit, indoctrinate and proselytize among the Latin American population.

Iran accrued great benefit from its relationship with the ALBA nations. Diplomatically, they stood against sanctions on Iran and tried to subvert any attempts to isolate the Islamic republic. They provided Iran with a media platform in the region and supported Iran's rejection of nuclear weapons scrutiny from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Additionally, through ALBA, Iran skirted international sanctions and evaded financial authorities by launching front companies, laundering money and injecting cash into the financial systems of ALBA countries for lucrative, commercial, and criminal enterprises.

Iran’s Strategic Penetration of Latin America does a good job of providing an overall picture of Iran’s infiltration of South and Central America and the Caribbean. It also raises the question of what the future holds for the region. Since the death of Chavez and the economic decline in Venezuela and other Latin American countries, the trajectory of Iran-Latin America relations has shifted. Iran retains commercial interests in many countries in the area and is working to strengthen its political and economic ties. It continues to maintain its innocence in the AMIA bombing, despite substantial evidence to the contrary and heightened negative publicity from the suspicious death of chief prosecutor, Alberto Nisman, in January 2015. Many Latin American countries are wary of Iran’s influence, regional intelligence gathering and its status as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Donald Trump’s election may signal a game change in the region. Trump has emphatically and repeatedly stated his opposition to the Iran nuclear deal which calls up possible reimposition of sanctions. Similarly, a ruling by Columbia’s Constitutional Court to allow expedited congressional approval for a peace accord with the Hizb’allah-allied terrorist group, FARC, could limit the previously fertile ground for Islamic terrorism in South America. Additionally, the presence of increasingly Euro-friendly regimes in Argentina, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil, could constitute welcome impediments to Iran’s continued hold on power in the region. Finally, and most optimistically, with retired U.S. Marine Corps Gen. John Kelly as the nominee to head the Department of Homeland Security, Iran’s use of Latin America as a nexus for terrorist operations could be dramatically curtailed, if not eliminated outright.

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.stratfor.com/situation-report/syria-russia-iran-and-turkey-schedule-talks

Syria: Russia, Iran and Turkey Schedule Talks

Situation Reports DECEMBER 17, 2016 | 21:15 GMT
Representatives from Russia, Iran and Turkey will gather Dec. 20 in Moscow to discuss the conflict in Syria, according a Dec. 17 Iranian Foreign Ministry statement, Russia Today’s Arabic-language service reported. The meeting had originally been set to take place Dec. 27. This announcement followed an earlier phone call between the foreign ministers of all three countries. Iran, Russia and Turkey are each embroiled in the civil war and efforts to combat Islamic State in various ways.

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

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http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...ilitary-secrets-on-North-Korea/8411481913917/

South Korea, Japan directly share their first military secrets on North Korea

By Elizabeth Shim Contact the Author | Dec. 16, 2016 at 1:59 PM

SEOUL, Dec. 16 (UPI) -- South Korea and Japan shared classified information on North Korea nuclear weapons for the first time since November, when the two countries signed a military sharing agreement to better defend against North Korea threats.

"On the occasion of the Defense Trilateral Talks, based on the [Japan-Korea] GSOMIA agreement, information on North Korea's nuclear and missile threats was shared between South Korea and Japan during bilateral talks this morning," Seoul's defense ministry spokesman Moon Sang-kyun said Friday, according to Yonhap.

The DTT was a meeting of the security alliance composed of the United States, Japan and South Korea that was held later in the day.

Moon told reporters Seoul and Tokyo had agreed to not disclose the details of shared military secrets and did not provide further explanation.

Seoul and Tokyo last month agreed to share below "level 2" classified information.

The two sides also concurred to not disclose third-party information without the written consent of the information provider, to limit information sharing among appointed government officials and to inform the other party immediately if information was leaked or damaged.

Seoul's Deputy Defense Minister for Policy Yoo Jeh-seung and Tokyo's Director-General of Defense Policy Satoshi Maeda attended Friday's bilateral meeting.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Kelly E. Magsamen later joined the two representatives for trilateral talks.

The three sides agreed to join forces to counter North Korea's missile threats with joint exercises and to strengthen cooperation on the implementation of United Nations Security Council sanctions Resolution 2321, according to Yonhap.

A South Korean defense official confirmed the United States and South Korea would continue to conduct joint drills Key Resolve and Ulchi Freedom Guardian, but Japan's self-defense forces would not be involved in those exercises.

Japan's participation in exercises on the peninsula would be limited to search-and-rescue training, the Seoul defense official said.

The United States has previously expressed approval of the bilateral intelligence sharing agreement, but China has stated the deal is "not in line with the common interests of countries in the region."

Related UPI Stories
North Korea using flood aid to repair military roads, report says
Report: Notes on North Korean currency call for 'punishment' of Kim Jong Un
Kim Jong Un calls for end to 'gang culture' in North Korea Workers' Party

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/N_Korea_calls_time_on_200-day_mass_mobilisation_999.html

N. Korea calls time on 200-day mass mobilisation

by Staff Writers
Pyongyang (AFP) Dec 15, 2016

North Korea on Thursday wrapped up a 200-day mass mobilisation campaign aimed at boosting an economy struggling with upgraded UN sanctions imposed after its two nuclear tests this year.

Coming hard on the heels of a similar 70-day campaign that ended in May, the 200-day version kicked off in early June, pushing extra hours and working weekends.

On the final day Thursday, as on every day for the entirety of the campaign, dozens of female propaganda troupes armed with drums and flags put on early morning performances at strategic locations across the city, encouraging commuters on their way to work.

A large placard erected in front of each troupe - and replicated in work units across the country - asked the question: "Comrade, have you carried out your battle plan today?"

On Thursday the section on the placard counting down to the end of the campaign read: "Days remaining - 1"

Outside experts say the economic benefits of such campaigns are dubious at best, with some suggesting they have a negative net impact on productivity as exhaustion fuels inefficiency.

New York-based Human Rights Watch has condemned them as mass exercises in "forced labour" that use political coercion to extract economic gain.

North Koreans are used to mandatory mass mobilisation campaigns, with participation rigorously monitored and used as a measurement of loyalty to the regime.

But Andrei Lankov, a veteran North Korea watcher and professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, said the modern-day campaigns were more show than substance -- a strategy from a bygone socialist era that was long past its sell-by date.

The primary focus is on industrial output, with top priority given to reducing a yawning energy deficit that acts as a constantly tripping circuit breaker on economic growth.

Power outages remain commonplace in Pyongyang which, as the country's showcase capital, receives privileged utilities supplies.

Heavy batteries and power-saving LED lights are popular items in markets for those who can afford them, while the balconies of Pyongyang's apartment blocks bristle with solar panels to keep basic household appliances running.

The current 200-day campaign was launched to kick-start a new five-year economic plan unveiled by supreme leader Kim Jong-Un at a ruling party congress in May.

The plan was long on ambition but short on detail, offering no clear hint of reform despite Kim's call to "expand our method of economic management".

According to South Korea's central bank, the North Korean economy contracted by 1.1 percent last year -- the first downturn since 2010.

Given the paucity of economic data released by the North, estimating its GDP is a hazardous exercise, but experts say upgraded sanctions are clearly posing a challenge that old-school, mass mobilisation campaigns are simply no match for.

North Korea carried out two nuclear tests this year, in January and September, drawing two separate rounds of UN sanctions aimed at blocking Pyongyang's access to hard currency revenues.

The latest measures included a cap on North Korea's coal exports -- a key foreign exchange earner.

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

Reuters: Polish minister accuses opposition of trying to seize power illegally
Started by Possible Impact‎, Today 03:59 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...opposition-of-trying-to-seize-power-illegally

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http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ts-Next-Big-Test-as-France%92s-Election-Looms

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/17/world/europe/european-union-france-frexit-marine-le-pen.html?_r=0

E.U. Faces Its Next Big Test as France’s Election Looms

By STEVEN ERLANGER and KIMIKO DE FREYTAS-TAMURA
DEC. 17, 2016

LE LUC, France — When the French put a draft Constitution for a newly enlarged European Union to a referendum in 2005, Pascal Verrelle voted passionately against it — hoping it would stop the European Union in its tracks. He rejoiced when the effort failed, yet was dismayed when the bloc kept gathering more members and powers, anyway.

At the time, Mr. Verrelle, a former soldier, was a prison director, but he eventually felt compelled to enter politics and joined the far-right National Front. When he was elected mayor of this small town in Provence eight months ago, the first thing he did was to take down the European Union flag from City Hall.

“In 2005, a majority voted against Europe, and we still find ourselves in Europe, by magic,” he said, “and I find it inadmissible.”

Today the European Union is wobbling under the weight of problems encouraged in part by that unchecked expansion — stagnant economies, the euro crisis, new pressures from Russia and deep strains over migration, especially from newer members in Central and Eastern Europe.

Continue reading the main story
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But a visit to Le Luc and other villages in southern France is a reminder that the European Union faces yet another serious problem long in the making — a crisis of legitimacy — that is fueling right-wing, nationalist politics even in the traditional core of the bloc.

For Mr. Verrelle, 2005 was a watershed. Since then, opposition to a much-enlarged, poorer and vastly more diverse European Union has only increased. So has support for the National Front and its leader, Marine Le Pen, who has emerged as a serious contender in France’s presidential race.

Having already suffered a “Brexit” vote this year in Britain, Europe faces a series of critical elections in the year ahead. But none is more important than the vote in France, a founding European Union member.

The British decision to quit the European Union was a major blow, but a victory by Ms. Le Pen could be the death knell. And with the election of Donald J. Trump in the United States, that prospect has taken on new weight.

“Donald Trump makes Marine Le Pen sound reasonable,” said François Heisbourg, a special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research in France and chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “His victory gives her respectability. Everyone knows she’s not Trump — she knows how to use a noun and a verb and is intellectually coherent about what she wants and doesn’t want.”

What Ms. Le Pen wants is to lead France out of the euro currency and out of the bloc. She has said she would hold a popular referendum, à la Britain, on French membership in the European Union — a test of public will that mainstream French politicians, she says, are afraid to have.

From the mood here in southern France, a “Frexit” push would probably prevail in a referendum, just as 55 percent voted in 2005 against the Constitution that a former French president, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, had drafted.

The French “non” killed the treaty, intended to create new federal institutions for a bloc enlarged the year before by 10 countries, mostly former Soviet-bloc countries like Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary.

“In a way, Frexit already happened,” said a prominent regional Socialist member of Parliament, Jean-David Ciot. “Europe did not keep its promises, to create a world of wealth and full employment.”

“People feel peace has been attained but fear that the rest of the world has come to undermine this wealth,” Mr. Ciot added. “They fear Europe is not protecting them from these migrants who come to pillage and steal their wealth.”

Brexit, he said, is “just a symptom of the rest — the feeling that we no longer share a common destiny.”

Since 2005, said Mr. Verrelle, southern France has been shifting steadily toward the National Front and its opposition to the European Union. In the last three elections, he said, “support has been growing systematically.”

The former prison director is scathing about the radicalization of young French Muslims and the dangers he says he believes that uncontrolled immigration poses to France.

“When I saw the prayers in the corridors of the prison, and others hiding their crosses, I knew we were lost,” Mr. Verrelle said. “What’s most dangerous about Europe is the loss of borders, and today we see the result,” he added, speaking of terrorist attacks and migrant flows.

“I’m worried about Daesh,” he said, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State. “We’re bringing in a Trojan horse times 1,000.”

As for the European Union, it has no clear political direction, Mr. Verrelle said, adding that it is too diverse economically for a single currency and too weak to allow freedom of travel.

“We’re in Europe against our will,” he said. “It’s a prison. It’s not a solution that will last.”

About 90 minutes away, in La Tour d’Aigues, overlooked by the ruins of a Renaissance castle demolished during the French Revolution, Ms. Le Pen’s National Front organized a protest against plans to bring about 30 teenage asylum seekers from Afghanistan to the nearby town of Grambois.

The protesters, fewer than 200, were met by about 300 counterdemonstrators holding up banners showing solidarity with the refugees, while 90 riot police officers, dressed in black protective clothing, ringed the two groups to keep them apart.

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, a niece of Ms. Le Pen’s and a rising star of the National Front, addressed the crowd from a makeshift podium, tossing her blond hair behind her.

“It is not the hate of others, it is love for Provence, love for France,” Ms. Maréchal-Le Pen, 27, shouted into the microphone, as counterprotesters whistled and booed to try to drown her out. She railed against a “dictatorial” European Commission that “works to undermine national sovereignty.”

Asylum seekers coming to France receive generous payouts, she said, while the Vaucluse region, the home of La Tour d’Aigues, is the sixth poorest in France, where one in five people are without jobs.

“We are against this completely crazy plan to redistribute migrants,” Ms. Maréchal-Le Pen said in a brief interview after her speech. The European project “is a failure,” she said. “We need to build another Europe.”

The wave of anger and identity politics is washing over France, with the ready-made instrument of a modernized National Front under Ms. Le Pen, 48.

She has now become both a symbol and an agent of a kind of defensive French nationalism that is proving very popular, especially in the southwest and north, near the Belgian border.

As the European Union struggles with fundamental issues of coherence, policy and solidarity, she has also become a plausible, if unlikely, president of France — almost sure to make the two-candidate runoff for the post in May.

Brussels is an easy target, especially for politicians like her seeking to blame domestic ills on some supranational agency.

“There is huge disappointment with Europe,” said Sylvie Goulard, a French member of the European Parliament for this region. “But a tendency to blame Europe for national competencies — hospitals and nurses, malaise of the police, housing — these are all Franco-French failures, nothing to do with Europe.”

The mood is worse in the south, Ms. Goulard said. “I’m from the south, and people are angry and frustrated,” she said, “but you realize that lack of transportation or the failure to integrate foreigners are not the fault of Europe, but Le Pen is exploiting these issues.”

But even Ms. Goulard, who has announced her candidacy to become speaker of the European Parliament, acknowledges Brussels’s many failures. It has not created functioning external borders, and its response to the migrant issue has caused severe strains among member countries and undermined solidarity.

“It would be stupid to be too optimistic,” Ms. Goulard said. “But we have tried to do something never done on earth, to get so many people to live and trade together in peace.”

There are some strong proponents of Europe, too.

Alain-Pierre Merger, president of the Maison de l’Europe de Provence, the regional chapter of an association that supports the European Union and promotes European citizenship, said that it would be a tragedy to break up the union, and that young people now feel a European identity that must be strengthened. “Europe is an idea, but it must be seen to be working,” he said.

One of the members of the chapter, Caroline Brun, 23, said: “This has been a tough year for our hopes.”

Many blame Europe for the migrants, she said, adding: “But it’s not Europe. It’s the fault of the politicians of European states who use Europe as a scapegoat.”

At La Tour d’Aigues, even the town’s Socialist mayor, Jean-François Lovisolo, expressed disenchantment. Europe has “failed to fight for a European identity,” he said.

The monetary and economic union that underpins Europe did not translate into a closer political and social union, he said, “and Europe is not working.”

Ms. Le Pen’s supporters could not agree more. Édouard, a former colonel who served in Kosovo who declined to give his surname, said at the rally that “we have not seen the benefits” of Europe.

“My generation was told, ‘You are European,’ and there was great hope and excitement,” he said. “But that translated into a recession. It has been a terrible disappointment.”

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archi...ext-step-senior-qods-force-commander-says.php

Iraq’s PMF is IRGC’s “next step,” senior Qods Force commander says

BY BILL ROGGIO & AMIR TOUMAJ | December 17, 2016 | bill_roggio@gmail.com |

The establishment of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is an extension of Iran’s plan to export the revolution, which keeps war against Sunni extremists from reaching the country’s borders, argued Brigadier General Iraj Masjedi, senior adviser to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qods Force.

Masjedi was speaking to an Iranian audience at a ceremony commemorating an IRGC commander killed in combat in Syria last year, which was held in Iran’s northern province of Mazandaran on Dec. 14, according to Fars News. He spoke at length about the sacrifices of Iranian military personnel in Iraq and Syria. The martyrs extend Iran’s strategic depth, uphold revolutionary values, defend holy Shiite shrines, and keep the homeland safe, proclaimed the Qods Force commander.

Senior Iranian officials and commanders have repeatedly made this line of argument, especially about peace at home, as the IRGC’s involvements have become increasingly open since the Islamic State’s incursion into Iraq in 2014 and the IRGC’s military escalation in Syria in 2015.

Masjedi warned that war would continue in Syria following Aleppo and Mosul, even as “takfiri and Salafi groups” are in decline. He argued that the only way “all of the Islamic community” would be at peace is to “destroy the takfir front.”

“They will show mercy to none, and this is not exclusive to Shiites,” Masjedi warned.

The Qods Force commander tied the mission of fighting Salafi jihadist groups on their turf and away from Iran’s border to the the export of the revolution. That has been the IRGC’s mission since 1979.

When “Iraqi and Syrian forces saw your children among themselves,” their morals heightened, he said. Masjedi then subtly made the shift from the sacrifices of Iranians to exporting the revolution.

“The next step of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been the formation of the massive basij [mobilization] force that is faithful and a friend of Islamic Iran, such as the Iraqi Hashd al Shabi [PMF], which has been established as a powerful army with our organizing and our experience in the Sacred Defense [Iran-Iraq War],” Masjedi said.

FDD’s Long War Journal has argued that Iran helped nurture the PMF in Iraq as part of its efforts to extend its influence in the country and create an Iraqi version of the IRGC. [See FDD’s Long War Journal reports, Iraq’s prime minister establishes Popular Mobilization Forces as a permanent ‘independent military formation’ and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces in Iran’s game plan.]

Meanwhile, the expansionism, abuses, and destruction wrought by IRGC and its supported militias on the ground – on display in Aleppo – feed into sectarianism and Sunni anger. That perpetuates radical environments fertile for Salafi jihadism and lethal anti-Shiism, feeding into a vicious cycle of sectarian violence. The war against the Islamic State and al Qaeda is inextricably linked with the IRGC.

Masjedi’s statement about Iraq’s PMF comes less than three weeks after Iraq’s parliament passed a law that established the PMF as an independent security force supposedly answerable only to Iraq’s prime minister, according to the The Washington Post. Earlier this year, Prime Minister Hayder al Abadi issued an order that established the PMF as a permanent “independent military formation.”

The law passed by Iraq’s parliament was greeted warmly in Iran. Earlier this week, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei received Ammar Hakim, head of the Shiite National Alliance party that helped passed the PMF law. The PMF is “a great wealth, a major resource for today and the future of Iraq,” Khamenei said, “they should be supported and consolidated.” Khamenei’s office publicized the meeting.

The top political office in the Islamic Republic also advised Hakim: “Do not trust the Americans at all.”

Hakim called the Iraqi parliament’s passing of the PMF law one of the party’s “important” achievements, in which the National Alliance was able to secure the votes of other movements and groups.

The PMF was established in June 2014 after the Iraqi military and police forces were overwhelmed by the Islamic State in northern, central, and western Iraq. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani issued a fatwa for Iraq to support the collapsing security forces and drive the Islamic State from the country.

Militias that are supported by Iran which openly fought US and British troops during the occupation answered the call. These militias are responsible for killing hundreds of US, British, and other allied troops during the occupation of Iraq.

IRGC-backed militias that dominate the PMF have been infiltrating the Iraqi government for year, occupying important government posts. The recent law enshrines their militia formations as permanent fabric of the Iraqi state. These actors are open about their ideology, promotion of the IRGC’s brand of Islamic identity, and links with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Without serious overhaul and dissolution of these formations as currently constituted, it would be difficult to imagine the Iraqi Prime Minister wrestling these groups under his command and control in practice.

Many of the militias that are part of the PMF remain hostile to the United States, and some have threatened to attack US interests in the region. One of the more influential militias within the PMF, Hezbollah Brigades, is listed as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Several influential PMF leaders, including the operational leader of the PMF, are listed by the US as global terrorists.

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archi...aunch-coordinated-assault-in-burkina-faso.php

Jihadists launch coordinated assault in Burkina Faso

BY CALEB WEISS | December 16th, 2016 | weiss.caleb2@gmail.com | @Weissenberg7

A military post in northern Burkina Faso close to the borders with Mali was the target of a coordinated assault early this morning. At least 11 Burkinabe soldiers and one gendarme were killed in the attack, which was attributed to jihadists. Reuters reported Friday’s attack about 19 miles from the Malian border began at around 5 a.m. local time and was carried out “by about 40 heavily armed individuals who have not yet been identified,” the army told them in a statement.

Local media added that some of the dead were killed after being burned alive, while military equipment, including vehicles, were taken from the post during the assault.

No terrorist group has yet laid claim the attack, but several jihadist groups are known to operate in this area. This includes al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s Katibat al Murabitoon, led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar, and its Tuareg front group Ansar Dine. Another group, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), a splinter cell of Murabitoon led by Abu Walid al Sahrawi, also operates there.

Murabitoon has claimed two kidnappings in northern Burkina Faso in the last two years, while several gendarmerie posts have fallen under attack this year. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara has claimed at least two assaults in northern Burkina Faso since September. Ansar Dine’s Katibat Macina is also responsible several attacks along the Mali-Burkina Faso borders.

Caleb Weiss is an intern at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a contributor to The Long War Journal.

Housecarl · Dec 17, 2016

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/iraq-army-mosul-isis-214531

How Iraq’s Army Could Defeat ISIS in Mosul—But Lose Control of the Country

By MARK PERRY
December 15, 2016

One of the few pieces of good news coming from Iraq recently has been that the Iraqi army is winning the battle to retake Mosul from the Islamic State. A victory in Mosul, the nation’s second largest city and Northern Iraq’s most important industrial center, would mark the Islamic State’s most significant battlefield setback since the U.S. began targeting the group back in August 2014.

Iraq’s impending victory will be due almost exclusively to the Iraqi army’s elite 1st Special Operations Brigade, an American-trained counterterrorism unit of some 10,000 soldiers representing all of Iraq’s religious sects whose senior officers are graduates of the U.S. Army Ranger School. In mid-October, the elite Iraqi unit (called “the Golden Brigade,” but now referred to by Iraqis as “the Golden Division”), was designated as the lead unit in the fight to retake ISIS-held Mosul.

The U.S. has trained some 35,000 Iraqi soldiers over the past decade, but none as important as the Golden Division. The elite unit, which answers directly to the Iraqi prime minister, serves as a model for what the U.S. hopes the Iraqi army will become: well-armed, capably led, uncorruptible and and nonsectarian. Over the past year, the division’s soldiers have proved to be tenacious fighters, having led the successful fights to oust ISIS from Ramadi and Fallujah. Since the battle for Mosul began, the division has retaken the city’s eastern suburbs from ISIS in a grueling block-by-block contest.

But sources inside the U.S. Central Command tell me that this success has come at a terrible price, one that could have dire consequences for Iraq in the long run. With the division suffering “horrific” casualties every day, senior U.S. Centcom officers are worried that the grinding battle is slowly destroying the division itself. If that happens, which appears likely, Iraq will lose its best guarantee against civil war—the only force capable of keeping the peace when Iraq’s sectarian divisions, temporarily dampened by having to fight a common enemy, reemerge.

Put simply, the Golden Division’s fight for Mosul could go down in history as one of the greatest victories of the Iraqi government—and its last.

***

Veterans of the 101st Airborne Division know Mosul well. The storied U.S. military division first came into Mosul after the fall of Baghdad in April 2003. Under the command of then-Maj. Gen. David Petraeus, the 101st transformed Mosul into one of the few American success stories of the war. “Money is ammunition,” Petraeus told his soldiers, and they passed it out freely, focusing on getting the city’s water, power and sewer systems back in operation. The spending was so lavish that Iraqis gave Petraeus, called “Peaches” by his West Point classmates, a new nickname: They called him Malik Daoud—“King David.” Building on that reputation, Petraeus became, for a time, America’s star general, the man who was said to know the secret to victory in Iraq.

It is a measure of how badly things have come apart in Iraq 13 years later that the city of 1.8 million is now unrecognizable to the 101st, whose 2nd Brigade Combat Team is advising the Golden Division in its battle against the 5,000 militiamen of the Islamic State for control of the city. The division is now two miles from the Tigris River, which divides Mosul in two—a significant advance from where the unit started when it began its operation on October 17.

The Golden Division entered Mosul having been hardened by fights against the Islamic State for control of Beiji, Ramadi, Fallujah and Bartella. No one doubts that the Iraqi army will reconquer this city too, but Mosul has been a different kind of a fight, with resistance tougher than any the elite Iraqi unit has previously faced. The neighborhoods of eastern Mosul, which have seen the most intense fighting over the past several weeks, have suffered the most, with ISIS suicide units packing explosives into trucks hidden in local garages, then driving them into Golden Division units and detonating them. One senior Centcom officer told me that ISIS has detonated over 600 suicide car and truck bombs since the start of the offensive. “We knew the fight for Mosul would be tough,” this Centcom officer said, “but it’s been a lot tougher than anyone thought.”

ISIS units have fought tenaciously, and few of its volunteers have been willing to surrender—even when facing overwhelming odds. And the ISIS command has maneuvered its units deftly, pulling its best combat formations back into tighter defensive lines closer to the city center when the pressure against them becomes intense. The result is that the toughest battles for control of Mosul have yet to be waged. “I had a good chuckle when I heard Ash Carter [the U.S. secretary of defense] say last week that ISIS’ ‘days are numbered,’” this Centcom officer added. “In fact, its months are numbered. This whole idea that the battle will be over by the time that Trump is inaugurated is a fantasy. This is going to go on for a long time.”

One senior Pentagon officer with access to daily battle reports on the Mosul fight says the battle for the city has been so intense that the Golden Division’s veteran battalions “are suffering upwards of 50 percent casualties. If that rate stays constant,” he told me, “the division could become combat ineffective in a little over a month, and perhaps even sooner.”

The division’s senior commanders certainly know this, and they are trying to minimize the unit’s casualties, which is one of the reasons their Mosul offensive has slowed over the past two weeks. In addition, senior Iraqi officers have apparently decided that instead of continuing to suffer the effects of battle attrition, they will rely on artillery, tanks or precision munitions from Iraq’s small arsenal of F-16s (the first ones were delivered by the U.S. in July 2015) to reduce ISIS units holed up in barricaded buildings, regardless of the likely presence of civilians. In fact, civilian casualties have continued to mount in the city due to air and artillery attacks, despite the efforts of U.S. Joint Terminal Air Controllers who paint targets for incoming F-16s, with the result that some of Mosul’s heavily populated neighborhoods northwest of the Gogjali industrial district have been reduced to rubble.

On December 7, Iraqi officials responded to the large number of Golden Division casualties by accelerating the training of replacements and by ordering other Iraqi units, including federal police formations under the command of the Interior Ministry, to fight their way to the Mosul airport on the Golden Division’s left flank. But the units have been slow to respond, in part because their commanders fear suffering the same high casualty rate as their elite counterparts.
As crucially, Iraq’s other major units (including the 16th Infantry Division, in the north) have been fought to a standstill, which means that the Golden Division will continue to carry the load.

A part of the problem, one Pentagon intelligence officer notes, is that the Golden Division’s battlefield competence means that it is the unit of choice for the Iraqi government, which views the battle for Mosul as a political as well as a military test—and a way for Iraq’s leaders to show off their new army’s combat prowess. “The problem with being the best is that you get used,” the Centcom officer told me, “and the more you get used, the more casualties you take and the duller you become.”

***

Iraq’s Golden Division has a storied, and controversial, history. As one of three special brigades of Iraq’s elite Counter Terrorism Service, it acts under the direct command of Iraq’s prime minister. Established as a nonsectarian formation, the unit was first organized, equipped and trained by U.S. special forces units soon after Baghdad fell, with the express purpose of fighting the then-growing Iraqi insurgency. A select group of its best officers were brought to the U.S. for intensive training at the U.S. Army Ranger School, then redeployed to the division as combat commanders. From its earliest days its independent chain of command was resented, however, with Iraqis viewing the division as a political tool in the hands of the Iraqi prime minister. Among Iraqis, it became known as “the dirty division.”

But the Golden Division’s tenacious fight against ISIS over the past two years has burnished its reputation, giving it a gloss of respectability unequaled by any other Iraqi unit. The division’s newfound stature has also been a source of pride at Centcom, whose intelligence officers cite it as an example of the Army’s training expertise and as a counterpoint to America’s anti-ISIS fight in Syria.

At the heart of that comparison is the animus harbored by Centcom officers over the CIA’s failure to train a Syrian military equivalent. “All of this talk about how the CIA has put moderate Syrians in the field is a crock,” a joint staff officer told me last week. “The CIA program is a flat-out failure. The units we’ve trained are fighting in Mosul, while the units the CIA has trained are nowhere to be found. It’s an embarrassment.”

More crucially, the division’s new stature has raised hopes at Centcom’s forward headquarters in Doha, Qatar, that the unit can keep the peace in Iraq once the fight for Mosul is finished. After Mosul, one Pentagon intelligence officer reports, the nation’s Kurds, Shias and Sunnis will pick up where they left off before ISIS appeared: in a violent, bloody struggle for political power. The Golden Division has the training and the experience to form a bulwark against sectarian military units. But it also needs to remain combat effective, and that, given Mosul’s bloody calculus, is hardly a certainty. As a result, senior 101st Airborne commanders have been trying to shift the burden for the Mosul fight to other Iraqi units, but without much success.

Centcom planners, I was told, had hoped that ISIS units embedded in Mosul would flee west along the highway leading to Syria, where they could be slaughtered by U.S. and coalition aircraft. But so far that hasn’t happened: While some fighters have fled, not only have the majority of ISIS main-force units remained in the city, the main road west has also been closed by the Iranian-supported Hashd al-Shaabi, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (the PMU). In mid-November, Hashd al-Shaabi overran Tal Afar airport, near Iraq’s border crossing with Syria. For Centcom senior officers, that was good news (ISIS is now surrounded) and bad news—with no way out, ISIS units in Mosul will now fight the Golden Division to the last man.

An additional complicating factor for Centcom military planners is that a part of the 101st’s replacement unit, the 1st Infantry Division, has recently been subject to a controversial change in command, with Maj. Gen. Wayne Grigsby dismissed as the unit’s commander “due to loss of confidence in his ability to lead,” an Army spokesman announced in September. The Army has not announced why Grigsby was relieved, but one senior civilian Pentagon official told me that Grigsby’s mistake was in inviting retired Lt. Gen. Jerry Boykin to speak at a Fort Riley, Kansas, prayer breakfast in June. Boykin is known for his anti-Muslim sentiments,, and for saying that Jews are responsible for the world’s problems. Grigsby rescinded the Boykin invitation, but apparently not in time to save his command position. “You can’t have a guy in charge of a unit in Iraq who is associated with someone who says that Muslims are the spawn of Satan,” the senior Pentagon civilian told me. “Wayne was a hell of a combat officer, but what the hell was he thinking?”

The result of all these factors is that senior U.S. military officers have accelerated their planning for “the day after”—for what happens after Mosul falls. Centcom commander Army Gen. Joseph Votel, picked to head up Centcom by President Barack Obama because of his special operations expertise, believes the outlook is dark, this same Pentagon intelligence officer told me, and likely to get darker, with the country heading inexorably toward a civil war. Votel’s worries have been heightened by military intelligence reports tracking increased Saudi arms shipments to Anbar’s Sunni tribes, in apparent preparation for the inevitable face-off against the Iranian-supported Shia PMUs.

“The White House always worried that arming the tribes would fuel a Shia-Sunni civil war,” this Centcom intelligence officer told me, “but the Saudis have no such compunctions. It’s a problem, a big problem, because arms are flooding into Anbar and have been for the last several months. Everyone is getting ready for the reckoning.”

Watching this from Centcom headquarters in Tampa, Florida, and from Centcom’s forward base in Doha, Votel has been communicating his worries to Washington, along with his own assessment—that once ISIS is chased out of Iraq, America’s best option will be to get out of the line of fire, as the Shia-dominated militias face off in a war against Anbar’s Sunni tribes. In that fight, the Golden Division, a symbol of the new nonsectarian Iraqi army, will not be able to intervene to stop the fight—let alone dictate its outcome—as it’s likely that by then it will have lost its best fighters in the streets of Mosul.

Mark Perry is the author of Talking To Terrorists. His new book, The Pentagon Wars, will be published by Basic Books next year.

Housecarl · Dec 18, 2016

Sky News: 'Buses attacked' amid Syria evacuation stand-off (burned by al-Nusra)
Started by Possible Impact‎, Today 09:28 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...yria-evacuation-stand-off-(burned-by-al-Nusra)

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http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/18/middleeast/aleppo-syria-evacuation/

Aleppo: Evacuations resume after buses set ablaze

By Angela Dewan, Madison Park and Eyad Kourdi, CNN
Updated 2338 GMT (0738 HKT) December 18, 2016

Video

(CNN)Evacuations of civilians and rebels from Syria's eastern Aleppo resumed late Sunday after several hours of delay.

The exodus of thousands of people from besieged areas was set to begin this weekend under a new complex people-swap deal. But the plan was put on hold Sunday after a number of buses were set on fire.

Hours later, the first "limited evacuations" from eastern Aleppo and the towns of Kefraya and Foua began, United Nations humanitarian adviser Jan Egeland said on Twitter.

Shortly after midnight, Robert Mardini of the International Committee of the Red Cross said five buses and one ambulance had just left "dark and cold" eastern Aleppo.

"Hopeful operation will proceed smoothly," Mardini, the ICRC's regional director, said on Twitter.

Latest developments
UN Security Council set to vote on Monday on resolution to monitor evacuations.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin talk about Aleppo in phone call.
New deal mediated by Turkey after two ceasefires crumbled.
Buses set to evacuate people from rebel-besieged towns were set ablaze.
9,000 people evacuated before operations were suspended Friday.
Rebels say Iranian militia groups brought earlier evacuations to a halt.
Syrian regime is on the brink of seizing the whole city of Aleppo.

'Reckless armed men'
The agreement, struck Saturday, was to give safe passage to those loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, including Iranian militia groups, from areas held or besieged by rebels, the Aleppo Media Center activist group said.
It was a new demand in exchange for the evacuation of civilians, rebels and others loyal to the opposition from eastern Aleppo, now almost entirely in government control.

Battle for Aleppo: Full coverage
Ceasfire broken as evacuations delayed
Syrians post goodbye messages on Twitter
Children who put Aleppo's suffering on the map
'Assad will reign over a wasteland'
Photos: The Battle for Aleppo
'Aleppo is being destroyed by world's silence''
Why Aleppo is so important
What you need to know about Aleppo

What began as a straightforward evacuation agreement has become a complicated, three-stage deal involving Aleppo and four other cities. Some 4,000 people were to be evacuated from Kefraya and Foua, while others were also to come from Madaya and Zabadani.

Then, on Sunday, buses in neighboring province of Idlib were set ablaze as they made their way to Kefraya and Foua, said Syrian state media and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group.

The delay left thousands of people in limbo. Many had been sleeping on the streets and in bombed-out buildings in subfreezing temperatures since Friday, when earlier evacuations were brought to a sudden halt. Activist Monther Etaky in eastern Aleppo posted a video on Twitter showing dozens of weary and injured people, saying they had been waiting to be evacuated since 6 a.m. "Civilians are not negotiations tool(s)," he wrote in his post.

Some resistance to the deal was expected. It requires the cooperation of opposing parties in the Syrian civil war that has raged for more than five years.

Winter will be 'a killer'
The Norwegian Refugee Council is assisting people who have fled eastern Aleppo, many of whom slept outdoors as temperatures plunged below zero. The council is hosting them in camps to the north of the city.

"Our major concern at this point is -- not only in Aleppo but across the country, where there are people being displaced by this fighting -- is that they're living in the open, they're exposed to the elements," Thomas White, the organization's Syria Response Director, told CNN's Cyril Vanier. "And it's cold right now, and this winter in northern Syria will be a killer."

But for many, being taken to Idlib is moving from one war zone to another. Idlib is widely expected to be the regime's next target, and the evacuations are effectively moving rebels to one containable zone.

As many as 9,000 people had been evacuated from Aleppo's besieged east in nine convoys on Thursday and Friday, but the evacuation came to a sudden halt Friday.

The Syrian state news agency SANA has said the evacuations were suspended after some evacuees were found to be transporting weapons and advanced communication devices.

But rebels claimed that Iranian and other Shia militia groups loyal to Assad had made fresh demands to have regime loyalists freed from other rebel-held areas.

"We would like to highlight that the Iranians are the main reason for delays and obstacles," said Osama Abazid from the Free Syrian Army rebel alliance.

"We call upon you to spare no effort to ensure that attacks on convoys are prevented at all costs."

'All my children are gone'
And for those staying, life is only getting more grim, as the government's grip on eastern Aleppo is now so tight, there is little left for civilians.

The Syrian regime was accused of continuing its destructive airstrikes this week in violation of the earlier ceasefires agreed.

A harrowing video broadcast by ITV's Channel 4 of what is believed to be eastern Aleppo's last hospital shows a child siting on a bed, covered in dust and blood, visibly traumatized, following an airstrike.

A woman, also bloodied and white with dust, wails in pain, saying she lost all her children in a strike in their home as they slept, .

"I don't know what he (Assad) hit us with. We were at home sleeping. Suddenly, the whole building just fell on us. Oh my god! All my children are gone," she said.

A boy, who appears in the video to be a young teenager, is in tears and shock as he cradles the body of his 1-month old brother, who suffocated in a strike. Two children are escorted around the hospital to look for their parents, hoping they are not the latest to be orphaned.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet Monday to vote on a proposal brought by France that would redeploy UN staff to Aleppo to monitor and report on the evacuation of civilians. The proposal calls for safe evacuations, "immediate and unconditional" access to humanitarian aid, and protection of medical facilities and personnel.

The Security Council has come under criticism, having failed to find a political solution to Syria's brutal war that has killed at least 400,000 people and to even agree on days-long ceasefires.

Russia, which has supported Assad with airstrikes since September 2015, has used its veto power as a permanent member of the Security Council six times to shoot down UN resolutions on the conflict, while China has vetoed five of those six.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the latest developments in Aleppo, according to Turkey's official news agency Anadolu. The two said issues around evacuations should be solved as soon as possible. They also discussed efforts to send humanitarian aid into Aleppo and to reach a political solution in the country. No specific details were released.

If the regime does take control of the key city, it would mark a turning point in the war, putting the regime back in charge of all five major cities in Syria and making a political opposition far less likely to succeed.

CNN's Larry Register, Sheena McKenzie, Richard Roth, Marilia Brocchetto, Steve Visser, Jennifer Deaton, Natalie Gallon, Jomana Karadsheh and Kareem Khadder contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Dec 18, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jordan-security-shooting-idUSKBN1470GG

WORLD NEWS | Sun Dec 18, 2016 | 6:39pm EST

Jordan declares end of castle siege, says four gunmen killed

By Suleiman Al-Khalidi | AMMAN
Jordanian security forces said they killed four "terrorist outlaws" after flushing them out of a castle in the southern city of Karak where they had holed up after a shoot-out that killed nine people.

An official statement said the four assailants, who shot at police targets in the town before heading to the Crusader-era castle, carried automatic weapons. Large quantities of explosives, weapons and suicide belts were seized in a hideout, the statement said.

It made no mention of their identity or whether they belonged to any militant group, raising speculation they could have been tribal outlaws with a vengeance against the state rather than Islamic State fighters, who control parts of neighboring Syria and Iraq.

A Canadian woman, three other civilians and five police officers were among the nine killed during the exchange of gunfire between the assailants and security forces.

At least 29 people were hospitalized, some with serious injuries.

Earlier, government spokesman Mohammad al-Momani said a manhunt to "eliminate" the gunmen had entered its final phase.

Jordan's position made it vulnerable to spillover of violence, Momani said.

"When we are in a region engulfed with fire from every side you expect that such events happen," the official said.

Witnesses said exchanges of fire continued for several hours between the gunmen and security forces. Police said earlier they had rescued 10 tourists and trapped inside the historic site when the gunmen went into the castle.

A former government minister from Karak city, Sameeh Maaytah, said there were signs Islamist militants may have been behind the attack.

"This was a group that was plotting certain operations inside Jordan," Maaytah told pan-Arab news channel al-Hadath.

Video footage on social media showed security forces taking groups of young Asian tourists up the castle's steep steps to its main entrance as gunshots were heard overhead.

The castle is one of Jordan's most popular tourist attractions.

Prime Minister Hani al Mulki told parliament "a number of security personnel" had been killed and that security forces were laying siege to the castle. The Canadian government confirmed one of its nationals had been killed.

Police and witnesses said gunmen had earlier gone on a shooting spree aimed at officers patrolling the town before entering the castle, perched on top of a hill. They used one of the castle's towers to fire at a nearby police station.

Police said the gunmen had arrived from the desert town of Qatraneh nearly 30 km northeast of Karak city, a desert outpost known for smuggling, where many tribal residents are heavily armed and have long resisted state authority.

They had fled to Karak after an exchange of fire with the police at a residential building, security forces said.

Jordan is one of the few Arab states that have taken part in a U.S.-led air campaign against Islamic State in Syria.

But many Jordanians oppose their country's involvement, saying it has led to the killing of fellow Muslims and raised security threats inside Jordan.

Several incidents over the past year have jolted the Arab kingdom, which has been relatively unscathed by the uprisings, civil wars and Islamist militancy that have swept the Middle East since 2011.

Last November three U.S. military trainers were shot dead when their car failed to stop at the gate of a military base and was fired on by a Jordanian army member in an incident which Washington did not rule out political motives.

(Reporting by Suleiman al Khalidi; Editing by Robin Pomeroy and Grant McCool)

ALSO IN WORLD NEWS

Gunmen burn buses, Aleppo convoy goes through
Saudi Arabia, U.S. play down reports of curbs on military support

Housecarl · Dec 18, 2016

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-benghazi-idUSKBN1470QS

WORLD NEWS | Sun Dec 18, 2016 | 5:32pm EST

Suicide bomber kills seven in Libyan city of Benghazi: officials

At least seven people were killed and eight wounded when a suicide bomber targeted forces loyal to Libya's eastern government in Benghazi on Sunday, medical and security officials said.

Islamic State said it carried out the bombing, in the besieged district of Ganfouda. The area is one of the last pockets of resistance holding out against the Libyan National Army (LNA), a self-styled force loyal to eastern commander Khalifa Haftar.

Haftar has been waging a military campaign in Benghazi for more than two years against Islamists and other opponents. The fighting is part of a broader, low-intensity conflict in Libya, which splintered into multiple political and armed factions after the uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

This year the LNA has made major gains in Benghazi, though fighting and attacks have continued in parts of the city.

All those killed in Sunday's bombing were from the LNA, a medical source from Benghazi's main hospital said.

The attack came after the latest advance on Saturday by the LNA, which said following heavy clashes that it had taken control of buildings along the seafront west of Ganfouda, encircling its opponents.

At least three LNA troops were killed in Saturday's fighting, security and medical officials said. An LNA spokesman, Ahmed al-Masmari, said 13 fighters from "terrorist groups" had also been killed.

Recently there have been efforts to evacuate civilians trapped by the fighting in Ganfouda but only small numbers of women and children and foreign workers have left the area. Masmari said on Sunday that about 120 families remained inside Ganfouda.

Those fighting the LNA in Benghazi include the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC), a coalition of Islamists and self-proclaimed revolutionaries, as well as militants loyal to Islamic State.

(Reporting by Ayman al-Warfalli; Writing by Aidan Lewis; Editing by Greg Mahlich)

Housecarl · Dec 18, 2016

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Posted for fair use.....
http://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/difficult-year-ahead-for-us-military-in-pacific/3639299.html

AMERICA

Difficult Year Ahead for US Military in the Pacific

3 hours ago
Video

Military experts believe 2017 will be a difficult year for the American military in the Pacific area.

They note that China has become more aggressive in the area and that countries like the Philippines and North Korea are also a threat.

Michael O’Hanlon studies military issues at the Brookings Institution, a research group.

“North Korea, President Obama has just said to Mr. Trump, that this is in fact perhaps the sort of least-appreciated danger out there.”

Experts say North Korea is building up to six nuclear weapons each year. A senior U.S. military official says North Korea now has the ability to launch these weapons, although the warheads may not yet be able to hit a set target.

The Philippines has been an ally of the United States for many years. But Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has sought to limit ties with the U.S. since taking office earlier this year.

U.S. Navy and Marine officials have told VOA they will not take part in joint defense training exercises with the Philippine military. They will only train for disaster relief.

U.S. Army Lieutenant General Stephen Lanza says the Army may also change its planned training with the Philippine military next year -- from combat preparation to humanitarian assistance.

“We’re still working with the Philippines right now. We may have to make some adjustments based on operations in the Philippines, and we’re prepared to do that.”

The U.S. still has a large military presence in the Pacific. The Navy has four aircraft carriers in the area. The Army is taking part in military exercises with South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and, for the first time, Cambodia.

Lanza says Vietnam has also asked to take part in the exercises.

“You want to be there to deter. You want to be there to avoid conflict and, really, to avoid miscalculation. And I know our partners appreciate the fact that we are engaged with them in the Pacific.”

Lanza says the militaries of many countries should work together to prepare for difficult times.

I’m Christopher Jones-Cruise.

VOA Pentagon Correspondent Carla Babb reported this story. Christopher Jones-Cruise adapted her report for Learning English. Ashley Thompson was the editor.

Housecarl · Dec 18, 2016

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http://www.ibtimes.com/kim-jong-un-...clear-warheads-can-hit-britain-europe-2462164

Kim Jong Un Ready For War? North Korea's Long-Range Nuclear Warheads Can Hit Britain, Europe, US

BY SUMAN VARANDANI @SUMAN09 ON 12/18/16 AT 12:58 AM

North Korea has long-range nuclear warheads which can reach Britain, continental Europe and the United States, a South Korean government official reportedly said Saturday. The statement came amid reports that the military of the Kim Jong Un-ruled country is now capable of attaching nuclear warheads to missiles which can travel a few thousand miles.

Lee Sang-haw, director general of North Korean nuclear affairs bureau in South Korea, told the Daily Star Online in Seoul that Kim's nuclear arsenal is more dangerous than previously thought, and that “Europe is also within range” along with other countries of the NATO alliance.

According to reports, North Korea's KN-08 missile — which is under development — will have a range of more than 7,500 miles.

“I am not able to share everything I know because much of the intelligence is classified and I don’t want to go into precise details," a senior South Korean ministry source reportedly said. “There are different assessments of North Korea’s ballistic missile capabilities, but what is for sure is as they repeat tests, they learn something important.”

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Meanwhile, Yonhap reported Sunday, citing a local state-run think tank, that North Korea's ability to engage in special operational warfare has improved over the years. Pyongyang has continuously built up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs over the years.

"Every intelligence points toward a buildup of conventional arms," a source Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), who declined to be identified, said.

As a case in point, officials gave the example of the North creating a battalion-size unit specially tasked with attacking the Blue House — the office and official residence of South Korea's president — and assassinating key figures in Seoul's government. Kim reportedly visited this battalion Nov. 4 and the troops were assigned to participate in a mock attack on the Blue House early last week.

North Korea faced criticism from the West and strong U.N. sanctions were imposed on it following its nuclear weapons tests and other ballistic missile launches.

Housecarl · Dec 18, 2016

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Posted for fair use.....
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/12/485_220350.html

Posted : 2016-12-18 12:24
Updated : 2016-12-18 12:24

N. Korea's ability to wage special operations warfare has improved

North Korea's ability to engage in special operational warfare has improved over the years, as the reclusive regime builds up its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, a local state-run think tank said Sunday.

According to the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) that took detailed testimonies from North Korean defectors who served in senior field or command positions in Pyongyang's military, the regime has made a concerted move to not only build up the country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) but also its conventional forces.

"Every intelligence points toward a buildup of conventional arms," said an official source, who declined to be identified. The source, in particular, said South Korea's military is of the opinion that the North has set up more special forces units, upgraded the equipment used by such troops and beefed up their training.

KIDA and the military said as a case in point, the North actually created a battalion-size unit specially tasked with attacking South Korea's presidential office Cheong Wa Dae and assassinating key figures in government.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un actually visited this battalion on Nov. 4 and the troops assigned to the unit actually took part in a mock attack on Cheong Wa Dae early last week.

Even before such developments, the North has placed considerable emphasis on special forces, and is reported to employ large numbers of troops for special missions in the event of war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula.

The source then said Seoul is currently in the process of reassessing the North's infantry, artillery, special warfare, naval and aerial capabilities, with the final classified report to be submitted to the defense ministry and Joint Chiefs of Staff in the first half of 2017.

Such analysis can paint a clearer picture of North Korea's military might that has been greatly boosted by it nuclear weapons program.

This year alone the North tested two nuclear devices and fired off dozens of ballistic missiles, including those launched from a submarine, which can pose considerable challenges for South Korea and its main ally the United States.

Others said that while it has become very hard to carry out signal intelligence, with Pyongyang using underground cables to send commands to all key forces, Seoul still has the ability to carry out human intelligence gathering from various sources that includes defectors.

Since 2000, there have been 294 North Korean soldiers who have defected to the South, with many being senior officers and noncommissioned officers who have a generally good grasp of developments taking place within the military. Of the total who have reached the South, 20-30 have held command posts with their insight being instrumental in the compiling of the latest assessment.

They said this is the kind of intelligence that Japan wants to acquire through the recently inked General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA).

"There is a chance that Tokyo may use GSOMIA to get a copy of the military reassessment report that Seoul is working on," insiders said. (Yonhap)

Housecarl · Dec 19, 2016

Truck plows in Christmas market crowd, Berlin Germany
Started by Repairman-Jack‎, Today 11:38 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...n-Christmas-market-crowd-Berlin-Germany/page2

Russian Ambassador In Turkey Shot, Seriously Wounded In Ankara Attack
Started by Vegas321‎, Today 08:35 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...Shot-Seriously-Wounded-In-Ankara-Attack/page4

The head of one of the Russian Foreign Ministry's department found shot dead in Moscow
Started by Possible Impact‎, Today 02:49 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...nistry-s-department-found-shot-dead-in-Moscow

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-shooting-idUSKBN1481X0

WORLD NEWS | Mon Dec 19, 2016 | 5:13pm EST

Gunman wounds three in Zurich mosque rampage, motive unclear

By Michael Shields and Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi | ZURICH
A man stormed into a Zurich mosque on Monday evening and opened fire on people praying, injuring three, Swiss police said.

They said they had collected evidence inside the building and would make more details available on Tuesday. They declined to comment on the potential motive.

Two of the three men -- aged 30, 35 and 56 -- were seriously injured in the attack shortly after 5:30 p.m. local time (1630 GMT) near the main train station in Switzerland's financial capital, Zurich police said.

A third sustained less severe injuries. All three were brought to hospital.

The unidentified suspect, a man around 30 years old who according to witnesses was wearing dark clothing and a dark wool cap, fled the mosque, police said.

Police said a body was found nearby but would not comment on any link to the shootings while investigations continued.

People at the scene told Reuters the Islamic Center on Zurich's Eisgasse was used as a mosque, often by Somalis.

"We never once had a problem," said Abukar Abshirow, a Somali who said he was a regular worshipper at the center that attracted Muslims from around the world.

"We never had anyone come and say why are you here. We never had that," Abshirow said. He said the three victims were Somalis.

Two thirds of Switzerland's 8.3 million residents identify as Christian but the nation has been wrestling with the role of Islam as its Muslim population has risen to 5 percent, swelled by the arrival of immigrants from the former Yugoslavia.

Two thirds of Switzerland's 8.3 million residents identify as Christian but the nation has been wrestling with the role of Islam as its Muslim population has risen to 5 percent, swelled by the arrival of immigrants from the former Yugoslavia.

RELATED COVERAGE

Unknown man opened fire in Zurich mosque, wounds three: police
In 2009, a nationwide vote backed a constitutional ban on new minarets.

The Federation of Islamic Organisations in Switzerland said the center was not a member and it did not have any direct knowledge of the incident.

(Additional reporting by Arnd Wiegmann; Writing by Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi; Editing by Alison Williams and Anna Willard)

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-russia-diplomacy-idUSKBN1481RE

WORLD NEWS | Mon Dec 19, 2016 | 5:01pm EST

Russian ambassador shot dead in Ankara gallery

By Umit Bektas, Orhan Coskun and Tuvan Gumrukcu | ANKARA
The Russian ambassador to Turkey was shot in the back and killed as he gave a speech at an Ankara art gallery on Monday by an off-duty police officer who shouted "Don't forget Aleppo" and "Allahu Akbar" as he opened fire.

President Tayyip Erdogan, in a video message to the nation, cast the attack as an attempt to undermine NATO-member Turkey's relations with Russia - ties long tested by the war in Syria. He said he had agreed in a telephone call with Russia's Vladimir Putin to step up cooperation in fighting terrorism.

At a special meeting at the Kremlin, President Putin ordered increased security at all Russian missions and said "the bandits" who committed the act would feel retribution.

"We must know who directed the killer's hand."

The assassination of an ambassador, not least of a major power such as Russia, marks a dangerous escalation of tension in the region and beyond. Security sources said he was off duty and some witnesses said there was no security scanning machine at the entrance.

The attacker was smartly dressed in black suit and tie and stood, alone, behind the ambassador as he began his speech at the art exhibition, a person at the scene told Reuters.

"He took out his gun and shot the ambassador from behind. We saw him lying on the floor and then we ran out," said the witness, who asked not to be identified. People took refuge in adjoining rooms as the shooting continued.

A video showed the attacker shouting: "Don't forget Aleppo, don't forget Syria!" and "Allahu Akbar" ("God is Greatest") as screams rang out. He paced about and shouted as he held the gun in one hand and waved the other in the air.

Russia is an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and its air strikes helped Syrian forces end rebel resistance last week in the northern city of Aleppo. Turkey, which seeks Assad's ouster, has been repairing ties with Moscow after shooting down a Russian warplane over Syria last year.

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-The gunman was killed by special forces. Three other people were injured.

"We regard this as a terrorist act," said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. "Terrorism will not win and we will fight against it decisively."

GULEN

Erdogan, who has faced a string of attacks by Islamist and Kurdish militants as well as an attempted coup in July, identified the attacker as 22-year-old Mevlut Mert Altintas, who had worked for Ankara riot police for two and a half years. CNN Turk TV said police had detained Aydintas's sister and mother.

A senior security official said there were "very strong signs" the gunman belonged to the network of the U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, who Ankara says orchestrated the failed coup in July. Erdogan has denounced Gulen as a terrorist, but the cleric, a former ally, denies the accusation.

Gulen described the killing as a "heinous act of terror" that pointed to a deterioration of security in Turkey resulting from Erdogan's wideranging purge of police as well as the army, judiciary and media following the coup bid.

The government says Gulen, who has lived in self-imposed exile in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania since 1999, created a "parallel network" in the police, military, judiciary and civil service aimed at overthrowing the state.

Suspicion could also fall on a group such as Islamic State, which has carried out a string of bomb attacks in Turkey in the last year as Ankara has pressed a military campaign against the militants in Syria. The group has urged "lone" attacks in the West.

RELATED COVERAGE

Turkish official links Russian envoy killer to exiled cleric
U.S.-based cleric's movement not involved in Russia envoy killing: Gulen adviser
U.S.-based cleric: Killing of Russian envoy 'heinous act'
Turkey's Erdogan says Putin agrees shooting of ambassador was provocation

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was due to meet his Russian and Iranian counterparts in Russia on Tuesday to discuss the situation in Syria. Officials said the meeting would still go on, despite the attack.

"The attack comes at a bad time: Moscow and Ankara have only recently restored diplomatic ties after Turkey downed a Russian aircraft in November 2015," the Stratfor think-tank said.

"Though the attack will strain relations between the two countries, it is not likely to rupture them altogether."

However, both Russia and Turkey indicated that they were looking to work together to find the combat militant attacks.

The U.S. State Department, involved in diplomatic contacts with Russia in an attempt to resolve a refugee crisis unfolding around the city of Aleppo, condemned the attack, as did the United Nations Security Council.

Tensions have escalated in recent weeks as Russian-backed Syrian forces have fought for control of the eastern part of Aleppo, triggering a stream of refugees.

(Additional reporting by Orhan Coskun, Nevzat Devranoglu, Tulay Karadeniz, Ercan Gurses and Gulsen Solaker in Ankara; Humeyra Pamuk and Ece Toksabay in Istanbul; Andrew Osborn and Andrey Ostroukh in Moscow; Writing by Daren Butler and David Dolan; editing by Ralph Boulton and Mark Trevelyan)

Housecarl · Dec 19, 2016

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http://38north.org/2016/12/sinpo111...121916&utm_campaign=38+North&utm_medium=email

Sinpo South Shipyard: Is the GORAE Set to Sail?

By 38 North
19 December 2016

A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

Commercial satellite imagery from December 9 of North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard suggests that the GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine and submersible test barge may have recently been or are preparing to go to sea, although it is impossible to determine whether that would be related to an impending missile test or normal maintenance activities. Imagery is not yet available from after a recently reported “cold launch.” The December 9 image indicates that previous work on the protective berm at the test stand is complete, making it capable of testing missiles larger than North Korea’s KN-11 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) tested in August. As previously concluded, a shipbuilding program is possibly also underway in the construction halls.

Figure 1. Overview of the Sinpo South Shipyard.

Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
GORAE-class Submarine

Commercial satellite imagery from December 9 indicates that netting previously covering the GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) and submersible test barge is gone. Additionally, on the deck immediately aft of the GORAE’s sail is what appears to be a small grouping of equipment or supplies. These two factors suggest that both craft may have recently been at sea or are preparing to go to sea in the near future. However, there is no activity on the dock adjacent to the submarine and none of the commonly seen support vessels are present in the secure boat basin. The reason for their absence is unknown but could include being out to sea with other submarines or getting serviced in a different area. Moreover, a floating security barrier is present at the basin entrance, meaning neither the submarine or barge was likely put to sea that day.

There are numerous reasons why the GORAE or test barge would be put to sea other than testing missiles or their components, such as certification of personnel or validation of repairs. Therefore, based on satellite imagery alone, it is not possible to determine whether a SLBM test is imminent.

Figure 2. The GORAE-class submarine and test barge are docked in the secure boat basin.

Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Test Stand Now Capable of Handling Larger SLBMs

A recent “cold launch” test, if reports are correct, would have taken place from the vertical test stand at Sinpo. Since no imagery from that time is yet available, no assessment can be made to corroborate that claim.

Imagery from December 9 does indicate that work on the western protective berm, which began in February, is now complete with a higher, more substantial, berm in place. This reconfiguration will allow the stand to test missiles with engines larger than the KN-11 SLBM last tested in August.

Figure 3. The protective berm at the vertical test stand is complete, allowing for larger missile tests.

Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Activity at the Parts Storage Yard

During the past four months, the rail-mounted gantry cranes and transfer table at the construction hall parts storage yard continue to be repositioned. Furthermore, the contents of the storage yard have also continued to change. These two developments suggest that there is either internal construction work underway on the halls or a shipbuilding program has begun. If a shipbuilding program has begun, one possibility is that North Korea has commenced construction of a new submarine to carry ballistic missiles. But there is no clear evidence to suggest that it the case.

A heavy lift crane, present at the parts storage yard, has been seen at Sinpo before immediately prior to or after a SLBM test. At those times, however, it was located on the dock adjacent to the GORAE-class submarine and used for loading the missile into the submarine or to facilitate maintenance and repair work. From its present location, the heavy-lift crane could be used to support work within the construction halls, assisting the movement of components in the storage yard or work on the GORAE-class submarine.

Figure 4. Maintenance or shipbuilding could be taking place at the construction halls.

Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Additional Construction Activity Slows

Work on a new construction or maintenance hall on the southern tip of the Sinpo peninsula, which began in 2012, has slowed during the second half of 2016. The new hall is approximately 119-meters-long and its location and construction characteristics suggest that when complete, it could be covered with earth to provide protection from attack. If this is the case, it may be used to support a future ballistic missile submarine fleet. The associated 197-meter-long L-shaped pier remains incomplete in the December 9 image. Cement caissons that can be placed and filled with rock, however, are readily available at nearby docks to complete the work when required.

Figure 5. Work has slowed on building a new construction hall.

Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 6. L-shaped pier still under construction.

Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Found in section: Satellite Imagery
Tags: gorae, gorae class submarine, joseph s bermudez jr., satellite imagery, sinpo class submarine, sinpo south shipyard

Housecarl · Dec 19, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/arti...il&utm_term=0_b02a5f1344-7a5cd95bb5-122460921

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Cracks in the Chinese Powerhouse

DECEMBER 18, 2016 | TIMOTHY HEATH

The surprising strength of populist, anti-globalization leaders in the industrial West has underscored the declining prospects for the middle and working classes in the United States and Europe. By contrast, Asian elites and middle class workers are widely regarded as the largest beneficiaries of economic globalization. Despite enviable growth rates, however, Asian economies have their own worries. China’s economy has manifested troubling signs in the form of two major, inter-related threats.

First, mounting public and private debt has raised the risk of a financial crisis and of dramatically slower growth rates. Chinese debt has accumulated a dizzying 465 percent over the past decade, and totaled nearly 250% of GDP in 2015. Servicing the debt will consume a growing part of the country’s resources and is already exacerbating financial volatility. Worried about the size and pace of credit expansion, the IMF has called the resolution of Chinese debt an urgent task.

Second, the country’s adherence to an increasingly inefficient mode of economic growth threatens long-term growth. China powered its phenomenal rise on the backs of exports and investment. But this approach has grown less effective as world demand has fallen and capacity grown redundant. More debt is now required to generate less and less growth. According to economist Ruchir Sharma, China now borrows six dollars to generate one dollar in GDP growth.

To correct these problems, China should consider ways to wean the economy from its dependence on cheap credit, exports and infrastructure investment and instead adopt a more balanced and sustainable mode of growth driven to a much larger degree by consumption and services. To carry this out, China needs to curb credit to non-productive state owned enterprises, expand social welfare service spending, and strengthen market institutions. Chinese authorities acknowledge the risk and have announced a variety of reforms to address the problem. Much of the highly publicized “Third Plenum” agenda has centered on establishing the institutions, practices, and policies needed for such an economic transformation. However, implementation of the new policies has been extremely slow and the results largely disappointing. Accordingly, the government has frequently relapsed to loose credit as a way to boost growth and keep unemployment rates low. But these stop-gap measures only delay and compound the long-term structural problems. Indeed, pessimism about China’s ability to ever carry out needed reform has grown in recent years.

The mounting weaknesses in China’s economy come at an inauspicious time. Depressed global demand has left Beijing few options for overseas markets that could ease the pain of its economic transformation. Indeed, China until recently served as one of the bright spots in a slow growing global economy. The country currently accounts for 18% of world GDP, adjusting for purchasing power parity. Serious troubles in the Chinese economy would likely cause the world’s tenuous growth to falter. Uncontrolled credit expansion and failure to carry out needed structural reforms will further the misallocation of funds to wasteful purposes, requiring ever larger amounts of debt to fund ever slowing rates of growth. The increasing financial volatility could also spur capital flight, as anxious investors move their savings to more secure and stable markets. Both the developing and developed world would feel the effects. In the developing world, resource-producing countries that depend heavily on exports to China would find growth severely curtailed. Indeed, this has already begun to happen in light of slowing demand from China. Especially exposed are Latin America, Africa, and resource-exporting countries like Australia. The developed world could see a decline in investment if China opted to enact controls to prevent capital flight. Countries with integrated supply chains, such as Japan, and exporters of higher-end machinery and capital goods, like Germany, would suffer as well from a Chinese slowdown.

Although it remains to be seen what policies he may pursue, the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president could exacerbate China’s situation. Trump’s election is illustrative the spreading disenchantment with economic globalization in the industrial West. With Britain’s looming exit from the European Union and nationalist European parties poised to make larger electoral gains, the trend shows little sign of abatement. China’s continued dependence on exports to these countries renders the country highly vulnerable to the types of protectionist policies advocated by President-elect Trump and other nationalist European leaders. Whether President-elect Trump chooses to pursue tariffs once in office is unclear. But if he chooses to do so, China could retaliate with its own tariffs. The result could be a global trade war that damages growth for all. According to some experts, tariffs enacted against China and Mexico could permanently lower U.S. annual GDP by $100 billion a year and could cost China 5% of its GDP. Grimly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts continued stagnation in advanced economies, which it warned could increase the appeal of anti-trade policies.

Like most other countries that have experienced rapid development, China is struggling to transition from a highly successful but unsustainable economic model. Such a transformation is difficult to carry out in even the best of economic climates, but Beijing faces the additional challenge of executing difficult reforms in the face of an increasingly inhospitable global economy. To avoid global stagnation, the world’s leading economies require even closer coordination and innovative policies to spur global demand. Whether global leaders can resist the growing call for retrenchment and enact policies that invigorate growth remains to be seen.

CHINA

ECONOMICS

TRADE
THE AUTHOR IS TIMOTHY HEATH

Timothy Heath is a senior international defense research analyst at the RAND Corporation and member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. Prior to joining RAND in October 2014, he served as the senior analyst for the USPACOM China Strategic Focus Group for five years. He worked for more than 16 years on the strategic, operational, and tactical levels in the U.S. military and government, specializing on China, Asia, and security topics.

Housecarl · Dec 19, 2016

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-crime-defense-china-idUSKBN1482KS

WORLD NEWS | Mon Dec 19, 2016 | 6:41pm EST

Chinese man guilty of stealing military program documents: U.S. Justice Department

A 38-year-old Chinese man pleaded guilty on Monday to charges that he stole numerous sensitive military program documents from United Technologies Corp and transported them to China, the U.S. Justice Department said.

Yu Long pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to engage in the theft of trade secrets to benefit a foreign government and one count of unlawful export and attempted export of defense articles in violation of the Arms Export Control Act, the Justice Department said in a statement.

Long, who worked as a senior engineer/scientist at United Technologies Research Center in Connecticut from 2008 to 2014, could be sentenced to a maximum 15 years on one count and 20 years on the other, it said.

(Reporting by David Alexander; Editing by Mohammad Zargham)

Housecarl · Dec 20, 2016

The Four Horsemen - 12/19 to 12/26
Started by Ragnarok‎, Today 02:51 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?508260-The-Four-Horsemen-12-19-to-12-26

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http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/12/19/world/europe/ap-eu-serbia-russian-jets.html?ref=world

Serbia to Get Russian Fighter Jets to Counter NATO Threat

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
DEC. 19, 2016, 11:21 A.M. E.S.T.

BELGRADE, Serbia — Serbia said Monday that it will purchase Russian combat jets in a move likely to add to tensions in the Balkans amid Moscow's apparent efforts to prevent the volatile European region from joining Western institutions.

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said he will travel to Moscow later this week to sign a deal that will include six MiG-29 fighters, which he says are needed "to protect our freedom and sovereignty."

Although formally seeking European Union membership, Serbia has been sliding toward its traditional Slavic ally Russia. Moscow has launched a major propaganda effort to keep it away from the West.

Regional tensions have risen in the wake of an alleged election-day coup attempt in October by Serbian and Russian nationalists against Montenegro's pro-Western government for its efforts to join NATO.

Serbian officials have said they need to boost the military to protect the country from an alleged threat from NATO-member Croatia, Serbia's traditional foe that has split from the Serb-led Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

Initially, Vucic said Russia will hand over the aging warplanes — decommissioned by the Russian air force — for free and that they would be delivered to Serbia by next March before undergoing major repairs to extend their service lives. Now he said Serbia will pay for them.

"If we want to save our Serbia, we have to be strong ... and pay whatever we have to," Vucic said.

He also said that he will additionally negotiate the purchase of Russian air defense rocket systems.

While in Belgrade last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow was keen to help Serbia boost its defense and discuss a free trade deal with the Eurasian Union, a Russian-led bloc of ex-Soviet states.

Any inclusion of Serbia into a pro-Russian fold would seriously jeopardize the integrity of southeast Europe after the bloody wars in the Balkans in the 1990s.

Housecarl · Dec 20, 2016

The Sudden German Nuke Flirtation
Started by Housecarl‎, 12-07-2016 01:15 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?507406-The-Sudden-German-Nuke-Flirtation

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Hummm.....

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http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/could-europe-fear-germany-again

Could Europe Fear Germany Again?

by Adam Twardowski
Journal Article | December 19, 2016 - 12:10am

President-elect Donald Trump hasn’t taken the oath of office or outlined his administration’s plans for the nation’s foreign policy, but his election has already forced the United States’ European allies to contemplate a future where the United States might no longer underwrite Europe’s security. Faced with an American president who has dismissed alliances such as NATO while denigrating liberal values, Germany will assume an increasingly consequential role as a leader in the turbulent transatlantic order while it takes gradual steps to shore up its lagging military capabilities. But the prospect of nationalist victories in important European elections next year raises an under-discussed question: as the European project comes under unprecedented strain and prepares to face a President who promises to turn the United States away from the world, could a fractured and increasingly nationalistic Europe come to fear a more powerful Germany again?

For students of European history, Germany’s contemporary profile as a bastion of liberal values and globalization is nothing short of a miracle. Its improbable reintegration into the international system after 1945 was made possible because American and European statesmen forged a transatlantic order that avoided the strictures Versailles imposed on Germany a generation earlier. But the West’s embrace of postwar Germany sought to do more than instill transatlantic liberal values in the vanquished Third Reich: it also aimed to resolve the perennial dilemma of Germany’s power. Following its unification under Otto von Bismarck, Germany’s military and industrial might destabilized Europe’s post-Napoleonic balance of power by causing other Great Powers to fear Berlin’s intentions, which led in part to the continent’s militarization and the eventual outbreak of World War I. With the United States as Europe’s new postwar balancer, Germany’s onetime foes could concentrate on rebuilding the continent while dealing with the more pressing threat of Soviet aggression.

Although the Third Reich was ruined, occupied, and divided by the victorious Allies by 1945, the fear of German power never disappeared. NATO sought to keep the Soviets out of Western Europe, but its concurrent aspiration to keep the Germans down was largely forgotten because the West came to take Germany’s liberal character for granted. Franco-German cooperation and America’s security presence in Europe allowed a common European identity to flourish, thanks to which Germany’s economic and political power reached unprecedented heights. Germany’s reunification in 1990, an outward sign of the Cold War’s end, forced policymakers to confront the return of the same powerhouse responsible for destabilizing the continent 50 years earlier. While the leaders of the dying Soviet Union voiced fears about Germany’s reunification, as did British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and French President Francois Mitterrand, the rapid emergence of new challenges such as the Gulf War and the Yugoslav Wars quickly buried those fears. Averse to foreign intervention, Germany reunited became a key pillar of the post-Cold War transatlantic order.

The impending presidency of Donald Trump is one of the most significant internal challenges NATO has ever faced. For the first time since its inception, an incoming American president has dismissed NATO’s relevance while expressing affinity for illiberal regimes abroad and illiberal policy ideas at home. Some illiberal states such as Poland and Hungary have greeted Trump’s election with hope that the United States will stop pressuring them to respect liberal values. Russia, perhaps as surprised as anyone at his election despite its intervention in the American electoral process, is guardedly optimistic that Trump will seek to cut a deal with Moscow on Ukraine and Syria. Germany, however, measured in its reaction, has signaled apprehension about the implications of Trump’s victory for the transatlantic order. In her congratulatory statement, Chancellor Angela Merkel conditioned Germany’s cooperation with Trump “on the basis of values” such as democracy, freedom, and respect for the law. In a profound twist of historical irony that is not yet appreciated widely, only 71 years after World War II, a sitting German chancellor has warned the next leader of the United States to respect the transatlantic order’s commitment to the rule of law and liberal values.

Some commentators have rushed to anoint Angela Merkel the proverbial leader of the free world. But as critical as Germany has been to Europe’s stability and unity – Merkel, for instance, is instrumental in preserving the transatlantic sanctions regime against Moscow – Berlin can’t replace Washington in the post-World War II order. The United States is the only transatlantic pillar capable of fulfilling a unique balancing role due to its ability to project stability onto Europe far away from its shores. Trump’s comments on NATO have nevertheless forced Europeans to rethink the continent’s security. Germany will take steps to shore up its neglected military capabilities and boost spending from its current 1.18 percent of GDP, down from 2.5 percent in 1988. A white paper published by the German defense minister in July 2016 calls on Germany to “assume responsibility” and play a greater role in the world. The paper signaled a significant turn for Germany, but embracing a more robust military with a more active international portfolio would be a departure from Germany’s traditional postwar foreign policy. The United States’ security umbrella was the key variable that allowed the continent to economically integrate, which raised the costs of war and helped forge a common European identity that dampened the nationalism underlying Europe’s experience with war. Germany’s success is a testament to that policy, which has in turn allowed it to project influence in Europe without having to maintain a military reflective of its economic might.

Could a remilitarized Germany surrounded by increasingly Eurosceptic and nationalist governments one day rekindle old fears about German power? Germany’s economic might has already unleashed resentment about Berlin’s influence in Europe. During the Euro crisis, Germany’s insistence that peripheral states embrace austerity led to anti-German protests. The United Kingdom’s impending departure from the EU will only further elevate Germany’s leading role in Europe. While this on its own won’t lead to the destabilization of the continent, any scenario in which the project of European integration unravels might. If nationalist parties make gains or take outright control in elections next year in Italy, the Netherlands, and France, it is possible that the EU as we know it today will not survive. In that scenario, Germany, having laid the groundwork to boost spending and investment in military capabilities, could inadvertently resurrect fear of its intentions. But what does Europe have to fear of a liberal Germany that just happens to have a strong military to defend itself?

Perhaps nothing, and certainly nothing in the short to medium term. The key development to watch in the years ahead is whether Germany’s domestic politics will be reshaped by the same nationalism, opposition to immigration, and inward-focused rejection of globalization that has swept the transatlantic order. Next September Angela Merkel will stand for a fourth term, but after the victory of Donald Trump and the UK’s vote to leave the EU, no one should make confident predictions about whether she will stay around or whether a resurgent right might one day take the reins of power in Berlin as it has in other European capitals. That isn’t a far-fetched scenario. The far-right party Alternative fur Deutschland has enjoyed rising popularity as anti-immigration sentiment among Germany intensifies. If Germany’s political landscape shifts in a rightward direction, together with growing misgivings about the United States’ retrenchment from the world and its commitment to Europe’s security, it is not inconceivable that Germany’s neighbors will begin to fear Berlin’s power and intentions in a way they haven’t for decades. There are already signs of a debate within Germany about the desirability of a nuclear deterrent in some form. While this does not mean that a European conflict driven by fear of Germany is inevitable as perhaps it was a century ago, American policymakers should not assume that the present post-World War II stability in Europe will last forever.

Those who diminish the enduring relevance of America’s security presence in Europe should remember that NATO sought to do more than keep Russia at bay. It has also been instrumental in keeping the continent’s largest states at peace with each other. That in turn has paid America significant dividends, which could be lost if the American people sanction Trump’s turn away from the transatlantic order.

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About the Author

Adam Twardowski is a researcher on NATO and Russia pursuing his MA in Security Studies at Georgetown University.

Housecarl · Dec 21, 2016

Sorry for the hiatus, the meat world took precedence......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.atimes.com/article/rethinking-trumps-policy-options-north-korea/

Rethinking Trump’s policy options for North Korea

Strategic patience, as exercised by the outgoing Obama administration, is highly unsustainable as a long-term policy

By JANA HAJZLEROVA and MICHAEL RASKA
DECEMBER 21, 2016 4:37 PM (UTC+8)

2016, North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests, multiple missiles tests, and staged a rare Workers’ Party of Korea congress signaling the “official start to Kim Jong-un’s era” with no changes in its political course.

At the same time, Pyongyang has been able to withstand the latest round of international sanctions, a spate of defections by North Korean elites, and deepening international diplomatic isolation.

The ongoing impasse in resolving the North Korean nuclear conundrum stems largely from the tightening geopolitical deadlock — the confluence of growing tensions between great powers in East Asia, the varying perceptions, narratives, and historical imprints of North Korea’s “impending collapse,” all of which amplify the country’s siege mentality and encourage its political brinkmanship.

In retrospect, the outgoing Obama administration’s strategic patience, which could also be fairly described as muddling through, might have worked for the two presidential terms, but is highly unsustainable as a long-term policy option for the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

This growing realization has propelled a number of task forces around the Washington DC beltway to rethink US-North Korea policies, independently of the outcome of US presidential elections.

Beyond ‘strategic patience’

According to the Independent Task Force on North Korea organized by the Council on Foreign Relations, “it is not enough to maintain the status quo on the peninsula or wait for circumstances to evolve in a favorable way.”

Its main recommendation is to “elevate the [North Korean] issue to the top of the US-China bilateral relationship,” which sounds inviting, but would be costly. Indeed, much to the displeasure of Washington, the policy would likely reflect Chinese terms, with the US forced to return to the negotiating table with North Korea.

The Trump administration may rely on hard power — such as the “Tailored Deterrence Strategy” that contains options for preemptive strikes in case of imminent use of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, while extending the US nuclear umbrella as a key strategic deterrent for the US-South Korea Alliance.

An element of this strategy could be seen in the decision to proceed with the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system battery in South Korea, ongoing integration of US-South Korea capabilities, and strengthening the intensity of joint military exercises.

Beijing, however, opposes US military presence and influence on the Korean Peninsula, so taking this path would further deepen geostrategic rifts between China and the United States in East Asia.

A second scenario is that the new US administration will strengthen its “tailored sanctions” policy against the North Korean elites, primarily by seeking leverage over China to rigorously implement them. Beijing again, however, places a greater strategic priority on the “status-quo” — that is preventing a North Korean implosion.

Such a collapse would arguably undermine China’s regional geostrategic position by removing traditional strategic buffer zone vis-à-vis the US provided by North Korea, and significantly increase the People’s Liberation Army’s military deployment requirements in northeast China.

Alternatively, the US recognizes North Korea as a nuclear weapon state akin to Pakistan or India, and negotiates a peace treaty in a grand bargain deal with China that would provide provisions for US interests on the Korean Peninsula. It is difficult, however to predict whether such a deal would end North Korea’s siege mentality.

Seoul’s failed ‘trustpolitik’

Since 2013, South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s administration has pursued “trustpolitik” toward North Korea, combining a tough line with flexible policies open to negotiation. Implicit in this policy is ambiguity and uncertainty. Its main premise is that North Korea would be deterred by South Korea’s military capabilities, while simultaneously respond positively to parallel inter-Korean negotiations.

In theory, this policy delinks humanitarian outreach and socio-economic engagement initiatives from denuclearization. In practice, after a series of North Korean active measures, including laying landmines in the DMZ that wounded South Korean soldiers, the “engagement” initiatives ceased completely.

The closure of the vital Kaesong Industrial Complex has left the two countries with zero channels through which they could build the “trust” and “co-prosperity” that President Park promised in her Dresden speech in 2014.

Following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January 2016, diplomatic pressure increased for international sanctions, and ultimately a “no-dialog” approach as the new guiding principle toward Pyongyang.

Concurrently, South Korea has intensified global public diplomacy efforts with a narrative that the North Korean regime is bound to collapse in the near future, with a “reliable” maximum timeframe of a few years. A new body, the Presidential Committee for Unification Preparation, was established and research teams have been dispatched to select countries of the former Eastern Bloc to extract lessons learned from their transitions to market economy and parliamentary democracy in a bid to prepare for unification at home.

The third way

Current North Korea policies, based on sanctions and military pressure led by the US and coupled with South Korean unification policies, fail to address the geopolitical reality surrounding the Korean Peninsula, most importantly the interests of China. In fact, the very idea of a North Korea policy characterized by a broader consensus by great powers and international community is misleading. Countries will always seek ways to elude sanctions motivated by their national interests.

An alternative strategy would be to shift the North Korean question away from the large structures of the international community, such as the UN, toward either individual countries or local regional platforms that are not hindered by the diversity of interests but rather build their policies based on shared historical experience.

In particular, contrary to the still ongoing Scandinavian models of engaging North Korea through training and capacity building, which had some effect but brought no real change in North Korea’s foreign policies, other countries may be better suited to develop their respective policies to de-isolate Pyongyang.

The historical legacy of close links, contacts, and experiences of post-socialist states in Central Europe such as the Czech Republic suggests this approach could provide new opportunities for cooperation and confidence building measures.

Such an engagement may prove “face saving” for a regime in Pyongyang that is in desperate need of exit ramps.

Jana Hajzlerova is the Director of the Czech-Korean Society, and Ph.D. candidate at the Charles University, focusing on frames and ideology in North Korean media.

Michael Raska is Assistant Professor at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Housecarl · Dec 21, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2016/12/21/48/0401000000AEN20161221009600320F.html

N. Korea rejects NATO's call to abandon nuclear ambition

2016/12/21 19:44

SEOUL, Dec. 21 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Wednesday dismissed a recent statement from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that urged the communist state to give up its nuclear ambitions, saying the matter is none of their business.

The communist state did not raise any threats against the North European military alliance, as it frequently does when addressing South Korea or the United States, but sought to belittle NATO, claiming the latter did not even clearly understand the issue at hand.

"It is something beyond normality that the NATO whose mission is to 'defend peace and security in the North Atlantic region' poke its nose into the Korean issue to which it is not entitled," the North's official Korean Central News Agency said in a commentary.

It came about a week after the North Atlantic Council, the top decision-making body of the NATO, condemned North Korea "in the strongest possible terms the continued development by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, and its inflammatory and threatening rhetoric."

Pyongyang accused NATO of again serving the United States, claiming the statement was only aimed at supporting South Korea and the United States' efforts to topple its communist regime.

"NATO, a body bereft of independence and playing into the hands of the South Korean puppet forces, should not say this or that about the DPRK as it is unaware of the essence of the issue, but had better stop functioning as a tool harassing international peace and security," it said.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

Housecarl · Dec 21, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.nknews.org/2016/12/n-korea-conducts-night-combat-flight-drill-rocket-firing-contest/

N.Korea conducts night combat flight drill, rocket firing contest

Night flight training countermeasure to moves by S.Korean and U.S. militaries, expert says

Dagyum Ji
December 21st, 2016

North Korea recently conducted flight training to enhance night attack response capabilities, along with a firing contest by multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) batteries, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Wednesday.

Under the supervision of Kim Jong Un, the Korean People’s Army (KPA) Air and Anti-Air Forces conducted “practical military drills” dubbed a “night assault combat flight drill.” Fighter interceptors were ordered to hit targets on land, KCNA added.

Kim Jong Un gave an order to fighter pilots of the Hero Kil Yong Jo Pursuit Plane Regiment to “recklessly blow up any target of an enemy,” to assess their combat capability in the field.

“Thanks to the death-defying corps of the airmen possessed (with) the indomitable spirit of defending the country and the self-blasting spirit, the sky of the country will always remain azure,” KCNA reported quoting Kim as saying.

A South Korean military expert said the drills had a defensive purpose, in contrast to the North’s more offensive military drills by special operation force KPA Unit 525, which have taken place twice since November.

“Since an interceptor fighter has the aim of prohibiting enemy fighter jets from entering North Korean territory, the North conducted a military exercise in a bid to respond to an ‘ambush of South Korean and U.S. soldiers’,” Kim Min-seok, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), told NK News.

But another long-time North Korea watcher argued the exercises were also an attempt to demonstrate the country’s regular firepower, amid ongoing drills and deployments by South Korea and the United States.

“North Korea showed off that the country can make massive retaliation with conventional weapons even without using nuclear weapons,” Kim Dong-yeop, a researcher at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies based in Seoul, told NK News.

In October, the U.S. and the South conducted a military simulation entitled “Red Flag” in Alaska, practicing for an attack on North Korea’s core facilities – including the Yongbyon nuclear plant.

With a plan to develop 200 so-called “bunker buster” missiles with a range of over 500 km in 2018, Seoul also recently deployed around 40 Taurus cruise missiles to the peninsula, said to be accurate enough to penetrate Kim Jong Un’s office windows.

“Our military, of course, would prefer to do a preemptive strike at night, whereas it may be hard for the North to respond since a night flight is still dangerous – in spite of the development of radar,” Kim Min-seok said.

Kim Jong Un also guided a firing contest of MLRS batteries in which large combined units of the KPA took part.

The participating military were ordered to fire off an MLRS rocket 50m away from a designated target, and “hide after firing a volley,” KCNA reported.

Kim Dong-yeop said the contest demonstrated the North Korean military’s attempts to boost its viability in response to South Korean military’s planned “follow-up measures” in event of a war.

“Our follow-up measures would mean we destroy North Korea’s self-propelled artillery and artillerymen heading towards a [South Korean] metropolitan area before and after an attack, in a move to minimize our damages,” Kim Dong-yeop said.

Featured Image: Rodong Sinmun

Housecarl · Dec 21, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ront-lines-in-ukraine/?utm_term=.bf433343235f

Checkpoint

2,900 explosions in a day. Heavy artillery and tank fire returns to the front lines in Ukraine.

By Thomas Gibbons-Neff December 20
Comments 51

An early morning artillery barrage started the latest*bloody scrap in eastern Ukraine Sunday as Russian-backed militants and government troops clashed near the*town*of Svitlodarsk.

A spokesman for the Ukrainian military,*Col. Andriy Lysenko, said that five soldiers were killed and 16 wounded during the day-long battle and that Russian-backed separatist forces had attempted to break through government lines. It was the largest single loss of life for Ukrainian troops in five months.

[On Ukraine’s front lines, U.S.-supplied equipment is falling apart]

A resident in a nearby separatist-controlled town, who asked not to be identified for personal security reasons, dismissed the idea that any separatist troops had attempted to attack and said the fighting was merely “rocket-tennis” between the two sides.

Lysenko said the Russian-backed fighters*suffered about 50 casualties, but that figure could not be independently confirmed.

The site Censor.net, quoting an unnamed Ukrainian defense official, said that four bodies held by Ukrainian authorities were not claimed by the militants, suggesting that the deceased were either Russian soldiers or citizens.

An international monitoring group documented*almost*3,000*explosions in the region*Sunday — up from 700 on Saturday and 100 on Friday. The*majority of Sunday’s detonations were recorded around Svitlodarsk. Despite multiple cease-fire attempts and efforts to remove heavy weapons from the front lines, the day-long bombardment, which included tanks, rocket artillery and howitzers, laid bare the shortcomings of international*efforts to quell the conflict.

The fighting sent the residents of Svitlodarsk to their basements, and around nightfall, as temperatures dipped below freezing, the town*lost power and gas. Utilities were*restored around midnight, according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which has observers on the ground.

Social media accounts that follow the conflict indicated that shelling in the area started again Monday night.

Since summer 2014, the front line in eastern Ukraine has been mostly static, and both sides have been relegated to exchanging artillery and machine-gun fire across a heavily mined no man’s land. Svitlodarsk is near the border between the two breakaway territories known as the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic and represents*a Ukrainian-controlled bulge along the front line.

In talks brokered by France and Germany, Ukraine and Russia agreed upon a*series of cease-fires known as the Minsk Agreements to stop the conflict, but both sides continue to clash daily. Earlier this month, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg encouraged allies to maintain*economic sanctions on Russia until there is a lasting cease-fire.

While Russia continues to support the separatists,*the West has buttressed*the Ukrainian war effort through training programs and nonlethal aid that includes*vehicles, counter-artillery radar, body armor and night-vision equipment. The most recent defense bill passed by the U.S. Congress allocated an additional $50 million for Ukrainian military assistance in 2017, bringing the total to $350 million.

[Inside the Ukrainian special forces fight against separatists — and their own government]

It is unclear how*President-elect Donald Trump will approach the conflict. His pro-Russian statements have put both NATO allies and the Ukrainian government on edge.

Since the conflict in Ukraine began in April 2014, nearly 10,000 people have been killed and more than 20,000 wounded, according to a United Nations*report*in June. More than 1.6 million Ukrainians have been*internally displaced by*the conflict.

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/with...binet-approves-biggest-defence-budget-1640623

With North Korea's Nuclear Threats, Japan Cabinet Approves Biggest Defence Budget

World | Agence France-Presse | Updated: December 22, 2016 12:08 IST

Tokyo, Japan:* Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet on Thursday approved Japan's biggest annual defence budget in the face of North Korea's nuclear and missile threats and a territorial row with China.

The Cabinet approved 5.13 trillion yen ($43.6 billion) in defence spending for the fiscal year starting in April, up 1.4 percent from the initial budget for the current fiscal year.

It marks the fifth straight annual increase and reflects the hawkish Abe's attempt to build up Japan's military, which since World War II has been constitutionally limited to self defence.

Abe, who is pushing revisions to the constitution, strongly backed new security laws that took effect this year making it possible for Japanese troops fight abroad for the first time since the end of the war.

Japan is on constant alert against neighbouring North Korea which has conducted two underground nuclear tests and more than 20 missile launches this year.

Under the new budget, the ministry aims to beef up Japan's ballistic missile defences, allocating funds for a new interceptor missile under joint development with the United States. *

Also reflected in the spending is Tokyo's determination to defend uninhabited islets in the East China Sea -- administered by Japan as the Senkakus but claimed by China as the Diaoyus.

The ministry said it has allocated funds for increased monitoring operations and to maintain mastery of the air and sea to counter attacks against what it euphemistically described as "island areas" - a reference to the disputed territory.

Separately, the Japan Coast Guard will increase security around the islands by allocating a record 210 billion yen, which includes two new patrol ships and the hiring of 200 more personnel.

In August, Tokyo lodged more than two dozen protests through diplomatic channels claiming that Chinese coast guard vessels had repeatedly violated its territorial waters around the disputed islands.

Also in August, Abe appointed Tomomi Inada, a close confidante with staunchly nationalist views, as his new defence minister. She has in the past been a frequent visitor to the controversial Yasukuni war shrine in Tokyo, which South Korea and China criticise as a symbol of Japanese militarism.

Japan has been boosting defence ties with the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations, some of which have their own disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea.

The defence budget earmarks funds to dispatch extra personnel to the Philippines and Vietnam to increase gathering and sharing of information.

Beijing asserts sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, dismissing rival partial claims from its Southeast Asian neighbours. It also opposes any intervention by Japan.

The defence allocation is part of a record 97.5 trillion yen national budget that will be sent to parliament for debate and approval early next year.

Separately, the Japan Coast Guard will increase security around the islands by allocating a record 210 billion yen, which includes two new patrol ships and the hiring of 200 more personnel.

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/sout...capable-of-striking-key-north-korean-targets/

South Korea: Upgraded F-16s Capable of Striking Key North Korean Targets

A first batch of F-16 fighter jets has reportedly been upgraded with new weapons systems.

By Franz-Stefan Gady
December 22, 2016

The Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) has upgraded the first batch of its fleet of KF-16C/D Block 50/52 fighter jets, a variant of the General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon, arming the aircraft with bombs capable of destroying key underground targets in North Korea, according to local media reports.

Defense Industry Daily reports that 35 KF-16 fighter jets have been upgraded so far and are now capable of firing the AIM-120 mid-range air-to-air missile and drop the GBU-31JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) air-to-ground guided bomb. The $250 million upgrade of the 35 fighter jets is part of the ROKAF’s so-called F-16 Peace Bridge Upgrade (PBU) program initiated in November 2009.

The GBU-31 JDAM is a guidance tail kit that converts unguided bombs—for example, the 2,000-pound BLU-109/MK 84, the 1,000-pound BLU-110/MK 83 or the 500-pound BLU-111/MK 8 warheads—into guided air-to-surface*weapons. “The upgraded F-16 PBUs will have the same capability of the KF-16 jets and will operate as the main combat planes charged with defending South Korea’s air,” according to an unnamed ROKAF official.

The ROKAF currently operates 170 KF-16C/D Block 50/52 fighter aircraft, 134 of which will be undergoing extensive modernization and upgrades.* In November, Lockheed Martin was awarded a $1.2 billion contract to upgrade the 134 aircraft based on the advanced F-16V configuration—the latest and technologically most advanced version of the fourth generation fighter jet.

The upgrades, next to advanced weapons, will include “an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, a modern commercial off-the-shelf (COTS)-based avionics subsystem, a large-format, high-resolution center pedestal display and a high-volume and high-speed data bus,” according to Lockheed Martin press release. *Work on all 134 aircraft is slated to be completed by November 2025.

“As Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) and design authority of the F-16, Lockheed Martin is uniquely qualified to design, engineer, develop, integrate and sustain a complete F-16 weapons system solution tailored to customer requirements,” Lockheed Martin notes. (The contract had first been awarded to BAE Systems in 2012. However, it was reportedly cancelled by the South Korean government in 2014 after the costs had increased by $700 million.)

The Lockheed Martin contract was awarded following a July 2015 decision of the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) to approve a possible foreign military sale for the ROKAF’s F-16 Peace Bridge Upgrade (PBU) program, which included associated equipment, parts and logistical support for an estimated cost of $2.5 billion.*According to a DSCA press release, the ROKAF upgrade program aims to ensure “interoperability and continued relations between the ROK and the U.S. Government for the foreseeable future.”

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

China Halts Trading In Bond Futures After Record Bond Market Crash
Started by*Medical Mavený,*12-15-2016*08:59 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-Futures-After-Record-Bond-Market-Crash/page2

I'm adding this thread link in case their market crashes and sets off a chain reaction within the PRC....HC

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...idUSKBN14A072?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

World News | Tue Dec 20, 2016 | 10:05pm EST

China tightens financial oversight on military after scandals

China's military will tighten financial oversight with revised auditing rules coming into effect from Jan. 1, meaning all the armed force's financial dealings will have to be audited, the Defence Ministry said on Wednesday after several scandals.

As head of the 2.3 million-strong armed forces, President Xi Jinping has made his fight against military corruption a top priority. Officers have warned that the problem is so pervasive it could undermine China's ability to wage war at a time when Beijing has increasingly projected its influence in the region and surrounding seas.

The People's Liberation Army is already reeling from Xi's anti-corruption campaign, which has seen dozens of officers investigated and jailed, including Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong, both former vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission.

Xu died of cancer before he could stand trial.

The Defence Ministry said in a short statement on its website Xi had signed off on the new auditing rules.

"All economic activities of the People's Liberation Army and People's Armed Police and the economic responsibilities of leadership cadres must be audited and supervised," it said.

Particular focus would be put on senior officers who have left office or who work in the reserve forces, it said.

Military auditors will get more authority to collect evidence, look at bank accounts and publicize their findings, and wrongdoing will be handed over to prosecutors for further investigation, the ministry said.

Everyone has the responsibility to cooperate, to correct mistakes and wrongdoing when found and hold to account those found breaking the rules, it said.

China's military set up a new auditing unit in January as part of its corruption fight.

The anti-graft drive comes as Xi steps up efforts to modernize forces that are projecting power across the disputed waters of the East and South China Seas, although China has not fought a war in decades.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Paul Tait)

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-navarro-idUSKBN14A27N

Politics | Thu Dec 22, 2016 | 3:09am EST

Trump picks 'Death by China' author for trade advisory role

By Eric Beech
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump named Peter Navarro, an economist who has urged a hard line on trade with China, to head a newly formed White House National Trade Council, the transition team said on Wednesday.

Navarro is an academic and one-time investment adviser who has authored a number of popular books and made a film describing China's threat to the U.S. economy as well as Beijing's desire to become the dominant economic and military power in Asia.

Trump's team praised Navarro in a statement as a "visionary" economist who would "develop trade policies that shrink our trade deficit, expand our growth, and help stop the exodus of jobs from our shores."

Trump, a Republican, made trade a centerpiece of his presidential campaign and railed against what he said were bad deals the United States had made with other countries. He has threatened to hit Mexico and China with high tariffs once he takes office on Jan. 20.

Navarro, 67, is a professor at University of California, Irvine, and advised Trump during the campaign. His books include "Death by China: How America Lost its Manufacturing Base," which was made into a documentary film.

As well as describing what he sees as America's losing economic war with China, Navarro has highlighted concerns over environmental issues related to Chinese imports and the theft of U.S. intellectual property.

China is paying close attention to Trump's transition team and the possible direction of policy, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said after being asked about Navarro's appointment.

"Cooperation is the only correct choice. We hope the U.S. works hard with China to maintain the healthy, stable development of ties, including business and trade ties," the spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, told a daily press briefing.

While Trump in the statement praised the "clarity" of Navarro's arguments and the "thoroughness of his research," few other economists have endorsed Navarro's ideas.

Marcus Noland, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, likened a tax and trade paper authored by Navarro and Wilbur Ross, who has been named as Trump's commerce secretary, to "the type of magical thinking best reserved for fictional realities" for what he said was its flawed economic analysis.

'DON'T POKE THE PANDA'
Navarro has also suggested a stepped-up engagement with Taiwan, including assistance with a submarine development program.

He argued that Washington should stop referring to the "one China" policy, but stopped short of suggesting it should recognize Taipei, saying: "There is no need to unnecessarily poke the Panda."

China considers Taiwan a renegade province and has never renounced the use of force to bring it under its control.

China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, said in an interview carried on Thursday in the Communist Party of China's official newspaper that China-U.S. relations face new uncertainties but with mutual respect for core interests they will remain stable.

"Only if China and the United States respect each other and give consideration to other's core interests and key concerns can there be long-term, stable cooperation, and effect win-win mutual benefit," Wang said.

After his Nov. 8 election win, Trump stoked China's ire when he took a telephone call from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in a break with decades of precedent that cast doubt on his incoming administration's commitment to Beijing's "one China" policy.

In an opinion piece in Foreign Policy magazine in November, Navarro and another Trump adviser, Alexander Gray, reiterated the president-elect's opposition to major trade deals, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

"Trump will never again sacrifice the U.S. economy on the altar of foreign policy by entering into bad trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement, allowing China into the World Trade Organization, and passing the proposed TPP," Navarro and Gray wrote.

"These deals only weaken our manufacturing base and ability to defend ourselves and our allies."

Trump has vowed to pull the United States out of the TPP, a free-trade pact aimed at linking a dozen Pacific Rim nations that President Barack Obama signed in February. It has not been ratified by the U.S. Senate.

The president-elect has also vowed to renegotiate the NAFTA pact with Canada and Mexico, saying it had cost American jobs.

(Reporting by Eric Beech in Washington; Additional reporting by Mohammad Zargham and David Chance in Washington and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Doina Chiacu and Peter Cooney)

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.janes.com/article/66423/details-emerge-about-requirement-for-china-s-new-strategic-bomber

Air Platforms

Details emerge about requirement for China's new strategic bomber

Andrew Tate, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
21 December 2016

An article published by the China Military Online website on 7 December has provided further insights into the requirements for China's new strategic bomber.

Remarks made in the media report by Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, director of the People's Liberation Army Navy's Expert Consultation Committee, followed on from the confirmation given on 1 September by General Ma Xiaotian, Commander of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), that China is developing a new long-range strategic bomber referred to in the article as the H-20.

While Gen Ma gave no details of the programme, R Adm Yin, who is also a regular media commentator on Chinese military developments, commented that as the "cruise missiles, nuclear weapons, and other weapons and equipment that will be carried by domestic strategic bombers are all in place", the time was right for China to develop a new strategic bomber.

He stated that China's current long-range bomber, the Xian Aircraft Corporation (XAC) H-6 series (a modernised Tupolov Tu-16 Badger derivative) is not truly a strategic bomber and suggested that the new aircraft will have characteristics comparable with those of the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit stealth bomber.

The experience and knowledge in the design of stealth aircraft gained from the development of the stealthy J-20 and F-31 combat aircraft, together with the associated understanding and application of advanced materials technology, also present an opportune moment to progress the requirement for a new strategic bomber, according to R Adm Yin.

Although China has never developed a strategic bomber, the production of the XAC Y-20 military transport aircraft and of the Comac C919 commercial jet airliner reflect the progress the country's aviation industry has made in acquiring the technical expertise required to embark upon such a development project.

The article also quoted remarks made by another military commentator, Li Li, who noted that the technical challenge in producing a stealthy supersonic bomber was very considerable.

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Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/arti...il&utm_term=0_b02a5f1344-d505c02ad8-122460921

Expert Commentary

The Future of U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation

December 21, 2016 | Antonio Garza and Stephanie Leutert

Earlier this month, a police truck burned on the side of the road in Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, with meter high flames melting the interior and the four bodies, three of them murdered federal police officers, that lay inside. Like so many gruesome crime scenes across Mexico, this one marked a fault line among criminal groups dueling it out for territorial control. Yet, the brutality barely registered in the region's collective consciousness beyond a few cursory news stories. These were just four more deaths in a country that is once again living through a wave of violence.

The last time that Mexico’s murder numbers spiked so dramatically was over six years ago, not long after former President Felipe Calderón began his well-known confrontation against the country’s organized criminal groups. Around this point, the country’s homicide numbers were in their dizzying spiral to a bloody peak in 2011, before eventually leveling off and falling through the start of the Enrique Peña Nieto presidency in late 2012. Yet the much-welcomed drop in murders – which has defined Mexico's security situation over the past few years – has now bottomed out. And worse, today's homicide numbers are creeping upward again, across ever larger swaths of the country.

Some of the reasons behind this second spike in violence are the same as in previous years. First, the Mexican government still faces its perennial challenges of strengthening a weak rule of law, especially at the state and local levels, and thoroughly tackling collusion among local authorities and criminal groups. Despite federal efforts to reform the judicial system, build out and professionalize the police, and reduce corruption, impunity remains high, and trust in the authorities is still low.

Second, the Mexican government has barely changed its security strategy over the decade long offensive. President Peña Nieto entered into office with a rhetorical shift on security issues, but the current strategy continues to call for Calderón-era direct confrontation with organized criminal groups and prioritizes the targeting of top kingpins. Law enforcement and security officials have been successful in implementing this approach, with Calderón killing or capturing 25 of his 37 most wanted narcos and Peña Nieto plucking off 105 of his top 122.

Yet, each downed narco creates more than a photo-op. The relentless pounding of top leadership also breeds an underworld power vacuum, where rivalries, ambitions, and greed all inflame intra-cartel backstabbing and leave splinter groups locked in bloody battles. These fragmented groups have also increasingly adopted gruesome tactics and ventured into additional activities to beef up their revenue – such as extortion or kidnapping – that are often far more damaging to Mexican communities than standard drug trafficking.

There are dozens of these fragmented groups, but the standout is the Cartel Jalisco New Generation (CJNG), which has steadily expanded its territorial reach since 2010. As the cartel moves across Mexico, it has turned states from Colima to Michoacán to Veracruz into battlegrounds in its fight against the Sinaloa Cartel and the Zetas. In fact, the CJNG is no longer a minor splinter group. Its surge to power has placed it comfortably “among the most powerful drug trafficking organizations in Mexico,” according to the U.S. Treasury, and as it disrupts the established criminal order, it's also quickly becoming among the most murderous.

There are also market forces at work in driving up the violence. The United States' prescription drug epidemic has pushed addicts who can't get pills into cheap heroin to fulfill their opioid cravings. Either sensing a market opportunity or strategically boosting the demand, Mexican cartels have capitalized on the health crisis, quite literally fighting one another to provide the heroin supply. The results are doubly bloody, with Mexicans battling it out for the lucrative poppy producing land and Americans overdosing at record numbers.

However, one thing that looks dramatically different this time around is the promise of a U.S.-Mexico bilateral security partnership. In 2007, as Calderón began his push against criminal groups, Mexican officials worked with their American counterparts to form the Mérida Initiative and formalize the binational working relationship on security issues. This platform also earmarked $2.5 billion in U.S. funds over eight years (of which $1.5 billion was released) to complement Mexico's $79 billion in security investments over the same period. Over time, the Mérida Initiative's mandate evolved, but it always focused on supporting Mexico's efforts to implement a more professional, modern, and institutionalized security response.

During this second wave of violence, the Mérida Initiative stands on shaky policy ground. President-Elect Donald Trump has largely adopted a go-it-alone approach for tackling regional crime and violence, championing a full-length wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to stop narco-traffickers. Further, discussions around bilateral security partnerships have largely devolved into how and when Mexico will pay for this wall. When combined with Trump’s “America First” motto and a distaste for foreign aid, the Mérida Initiative and overall bilateral security cooperation is unlikely to look the same or even exist on a recognizable scale in the coming years.

Slowing Mexico's bloodshed will continue to require a comprehensive security policy approach. It will also require international cooperation – whether in the form of the Mérida Initiative or otherwise – as the market forces and criminal groups stretch well beyond Mexico's borders. Yet as Mexico’s murder levels climb upwards once again, the response will need to be quick and multi-faceted, addressing and tamping down on the flames of violence that are once again burning across the country.

--

The Author is Antonio Garza
Antonio Garza is currently counsel in the Mexico City office of White & Case. He served as U.S. Ambassador to Mexico from November 2002 through January 2009. Garza is a National Association of Corporate Directors Governance and Board Leadership Fellow, director of the Americas Society, member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a recipient of the “Aguila Azteca” or Aztec Eagle, the Mexican government’s highest honor bestowed upon a foreign national.

The Coauthor is Stephanie Leutert
Stephanie Leutert is the Mexico Security Initiative Fellow at the University of Texas at Austin. Leutert’s previous work has focused largely on Latin America policy, including research on Mexico's automotive sector as a Coca Cola World Fund Fellow, serving as part of the Latin America Studies program at the Council on Foreign Relations, and writing about refugee policy in Ecuador. She has an MA from Yale University and a BA from Skidmore College.

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China Connection · Dec 22, 2016

Italy Plays Derivatives Card As It Tries to Bypass EU Bank Bailout Rules

Published on July 7, 2016Featured in: Banking & Finance, Europe

Peter Farley
Senior Marketing Strategist, Capital Markets at Misys

Italy’s embattled PM Matteo Renzi might just have a point about where the real problem lies in the EU’s banking universe as he tries to convince other European leaders and regulators that the rules should be bent to enable a recapitalisation of his country’s beleaguered banks. But in doing so he could be opening a Pandora’s box that has much wider implications for European (and global) banks.

Renzi told a press conference yesterday that other European banks had much bigger problems than his own institutions faced with their bad debts. “If this non-performing loan problem is worth one,” he said, “the question of derivatives at other banks, at big banks, is worth one hundred. That is the ratio: one to one hundred.”

Recent industry reports estimate that Italian banks are sitting on around €360 billion in non-performing loans, with €50 billion of those on the books of Unicredit, the country’s biggest bank, which has seen its share price and market capitalisation slashed this year to only €12 billion.

However, there was little doubt who Renzi was pointing the finger at. Industry website Zero Hedge reports that Deutsche Bank’s total derivative exposure stands at a staggering €54.7 TRILLION. This not only dwarfs its own diminished market capitalisation of €16 billion, but is 20 times bigger than Germany’s €2.74 trillion GDP and more than five times bigger than the combined GDP of the entire Eurozone of €9.6 trillion.

Of course, not all that €54.7 trillion is a liability. In the normal course of events it should be netted off by counterparties as contracts mature, or are unwound. But if only a tiny fraction of them backfire, the impact could be catastrophic. Even a 1% failure would mean losses in excess of €500 billion. It is no wonder that at the end of last month the IMF cited Deutsche as “the most important net contributor to systemic risk” across the global banking universe. At the same time, US regulators said DB’s US subsidiary failed stress tests for the second year in succession.

Industry analysts are already comparing DB’s current predicament with that faced by Lehman in 2007 as it headed towards meltdown. At that time Lehman was leveraged 31 times, while DB is now estimated to have leverage of 40:1, or has forty times more assets on its balance sheet than shareholders’ equity. In bank parlance, those assets are also liabilities until they are repaid.

But it is also estimated that DB’s derivative positions are a staggering 13% of total outstanding global derivatives of around $550 trillion at the end of 2015. So who are the counterparties that potentially hold the fate of Deutsche Bank in the balance?

Well many believe that a large chunk of the derivatives book is represented by the Italian banks that are themselves so vulnerable right now, if a full audit of creditworthiness was applied. And hence Renzi’s implicit blackmail threat to his European colleagues.

According to Zero Hedge, he is effectively saying: “If Merkel does not relent on bailing out the Italian banks, the collapse of one or more of those Italian banks will assure the failure of Deutsche Bank in kind. And since in a failure scenario of that magnitude DB’s derivatives would not net out, there will be no chance to save the German banking giant - bail out, in or sideways.”

At the crux of this increasingly tense standoff is the fact that Italy did not move quickly enough post-2008 to recapitalise its ailing banks. Over the next few years the rules gradually changed, culminating in a new mechanism in place at the start of this year that only permits state support for a bailout of its banks, after a “bail-in” has also been prosecuted. This means that any banks individual and corporate equity and bond holders are expected to share equally in the losses required to recapitalise an ailing bank before taxpayers’ money is used.

In Italy this presents special problems as many Italian banks attracted funds in recent years through special savings accounts, which were in effect bond schemes under another name. These savers, or bondholders, stand to lose significant amounts of money as this process is implemented. German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a Berlin news conference yesterday that he had been assured by his Italian counterpart Pier Carlo Padoan that Italy would adhere to the new “bail-in” banking union rules as it plans to support the banks.

Clearly Renzi has other ideas, particularly with a sensitive referendum in Italy in the autumn which is seeking public support for a radical overhaul of the Italian political structure that would confer on it more of an executive authority and enable faster and more effective decision-making. But in the aftermath of widespread losses to public savings, this would likely be rejected.

So how is the market responding to this Damoclean sword hanging over DB? Its share price is now below the lows of 2008/9 and is quoted at a price-to-book ratio of 0.251, which indicates investors believe the bank is not worth more than a quarter of its liquidation value. Renowned hedge fund manager George Soros has recently, according to German newspaper Die Welt, opened a short position in 0.51% of DB’s shares, which equates to 7 million shares worth $7.5 billion. Some estimate he already stands to make over $1 billion on the position. He clearly understands the regulatory and political dilemma, but even he must think it inconceivable that DB will be allowed to fail.

All eyes are therefore now on Merkel, Renzi, Schauble, the ECB…. and the banks. It’s unlikely to be left to a matter of who blinks first. But another messy compromise looks the most likely outcome, which will not do anything to rebuild confidence in the longer term credibility and viability of the European banking system. Some deadwood (or zombie banks) will have to go eventually as economic logic triumphs over political will. But who will be the first?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/italy-plays-derivatives-card-tries-bypass-eu-bank-bailout-farley

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-conducts-fifth-test-new-anti-satellite-missile/

BY: Bill Gertz
December 21, 2016 5:00 am

Russia successfully flight tested a new missile capable of knocking out strategic U.S. communications and navigation satellites, according to Pentagon officials.

The test of the PL-19 Nudol missile was carried out Dec. 16 from a base in central Russia, and was monitored by U.S. intelligence agencies.

It was the fifth test of the Nudol missile and the third successful flight of a system Moscow has claimed is for use against enemy missiles, said officials familiar with the reports of the launch.

The exact location of the flight test was not disclosed. Earlier tests of the missile took place from a facility near Plesetsk, located 500 miles north of Moscow.

It could not be learned if the Nudol was sent into space or fired in a sub-orbital trajectory.

Pentagon spokeswoman Lt. Col. Michelle Baldanza declined to comment. “We generally don’t comment on other countries’ capabilities,” she said.

Earlier tests took place May 24 and Nov. 18, 2015. Both tests were first reported by the Washington Free Beacon.

The high rate of testing is an indication the program is a military priority and is progressing toward deployment.

The new anti-satellite missile is among several new strategic weapons systems being developed by the Russian military.

The Nudol is viewed by the Pentagon as a so-called “direct ascent” anti-satellite missile. Russia, however, has sought to mask the missile’s anti-satellite capabilities by claiming the missile is for defense against incoming ballistic missiles.

The Pentagon is worried about the development of anti-satellite weapons by both Russia and China.

Gen. John Hyten, the commander of Air Force Space Command who was recently promoted to lead Strategic Command, has stated that Russia and China are building space warfare systems that are worrying. “They are developing capabilities that concern us,” Hyten has said.

In March, Air Force Lt. Gen. David J. Buck, commander of the Joint Functional Component Command for Space, revealed during House testimony that the Russian military is developing weapons with “counter-space capabilities.”

“Russia views U.S. dependency on space as an exploitable vulnerability, and they are taking deliberate actions to strengthen their counter-space capabilities,” Buck said.

Mark Schneider, a former Pentagon strategic arms policymaker, said the current asymmetry between the United States and other nations in anti-satellite capabilities “is of enormous significance.”

“Potentially, it could result in our defeat in a high intensity conflict,” Schneider said. “The complete loss of the GPS network, or its serious degradation, would eliminate the effectiveness of all existing long-range conventional strike cruise missiles and would degrade the functioning of many of our precision guided weapons.”

Anti-satellite missiles also could be used to knock out communications satellites. “We have begun to take some steps to reduce our reliance on GPS but this will not be near term,” Schneider said.

Michaela Dodge, a defense analyst at the Heritage Foundation, said the Russian test highlights the growing threat to space from new weapons.

“The test demonstrates the need for the United States to treat space as an increasingly contested environment where access might not be guaranteed as it has been in the past,” she said.

“It demonstrates the need to exercise scenarios in which U.S. military might not have a complete access to its complete utilization,” Dodge added. “The test also illustrates the need to protect and diversify U.S. space infrastructure.”

U.S. intelligence agencies have estimated that U.S. military operations could be severely disrupted with only two dozen or so anti-satellite attacks.

Satellites are used for precision navigation, targeting, and communications and intelligence gathering.

The Pentagon is very dependent on satellites for long-range warfare operations, an American military specialty.

Both Russia and China have recognized the strategic vulnerability of U.S. dependency on satellites. Anti-satellite missiles are regarded as important asymmetric warfare weapons.

Both China and Russia are developing lasers and other directed-energy weapons that can blind or disrupt satellites. Small satellites capable of maneuvering in space and grabbing and crushing satellites also are being developed.

Russian generals have mentioned*their forces fielding anti-satellite capabilities in public statements, but with few details. For example, Russian Lt. Gen. Oleg Ostapenko, former commander of space forces, has said the S-500 anti-missile system is capable of hitting “low-orbit satellites and space weapons.”

In May, Vadim Kozyulin, a professor at the Academy of Military Sciences, was quoted as saying that discussion of “space kamikazes” suggests Moscow is preparing for a conflict in space with the United States.

The TASS news agency reported that the A-60, a variation of the IL-76 transport aircraft, has a laser anti-satellite capability.

In October, TASS reported that the Nudol is called the A-235 and is being developed to replace the current nuclear-tipped missile defense system ringing Moscow.

Missile defense interceptors share characteristics with space-faring satellite killers. Both travel at high rates of speed and require precision targeting and guidance.

The United States has no anti-satellite weapons. However, a Navy SM-3 anti-missile interceptor was modified to shoot down a de-orbiting intelligence satellite in 2008, indicating U.S. missile defenses could be used to target foreign satellites.

The Defense Intelligence Agency stated in a report to Congress last year that Russia leaders “openly assert that the Russian armed forces have anti-satellite weapons and conduct anti-satellite research.”

China conducted a flight test of its new anti-satellite missile in early December. Preparations for the test were first reported by the Free Beacon.

The missile was identified as a DN-3 direct ascent missile. That system, like the Russian Nudol, is being developed under cover as a missile-defense weapon.
China’s Defense Ministry said the Free Beacon report of test preparations for the DN-3 was “groundless.”

This entry was posted in National Security and tagged China, Defense, Russia.

Bill Gertz is the senior editor of the Washington Free Beacon.

vestige · Dec 22, 2016

Russia successfully flight tested a new missile capable of knocking out strategic U.S. communications and navigation satellites, according to Pentagon officials.

China conducted a flight test of its new anti-satellite missile in early December. Preparations for the test were first reported by the Free Beacon.

Our technical advantage was just reduced.

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

Hummm......(Yeah I know it's the LA Times...HC)

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-missile-defense-unlimited-20161221-snap-20161221-story.html

NATION

By striking a single word, Congress shakes up U.S. nuclear defense doctrine and opens door to space arms race

Spectators at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California observe a test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system in January. (Gene Blevins / Zuma Press)
David Willman

By removing a single word from legislation governing the military, Congress has laid the groundwork for both a major shift in U.S. nuclear defense doctrine and*a costly effort to field space-based weaponry.

Experts say the changes, approved by overwhelming majorities in both the House and Senate, could aggravate tensions with Russia and China and prompt a renewed nuclear arms race. The bill awaits action by President Obama. The White House has not said what he will do.

For decades, America’s defense against nuclear attack has rested on twin pillars: The nation’s homeland missile defense system is designed to thwart a small-scale, or “limited,” attack by the likes of North Korea or Iran.*As for the threat of a large-scale strike by China or Russia, the prospect of massive U.S. retaliation is supposed to deter both from ever launching missiles.

Central to this strategy was a one-word qualifier – “limited” -- used to define the mission of the homeland defense system. The language was carefully crafted to avoid reigniting an arms race among the superpowers.

Now, with virtually no public debate, bipartisan majorities in Congress have removed the word “limited” from the nation’s missile defense policy. They did so in giving final approval over the last month to the year-end defense bill, the National Defense Authorization Act.

A related provision of the law calls for the Pentagon to start “research, development, test and evaluation” of space-based systems for missile defense.

A space-based defense program would hinge on annual congressional appropriations and decisions by the incoming Trump administration.

Yet both proponents and opponents say the policy changes have momentous implications.

“These amendments were historic in nature — given the paradigm shift forward that they represent,” said Rep. Trent Franks*(R-Ariz.), who introduced and shepherded the amendments in the House.

Leading defense scientists said the idea that a space-based system could provide security against nuclear attack is a fantasy.

“It defies the laws of physics and is not based on science of any kind,” said L. David Montague, a retired president of missile systems for Lockheed Corp. and co-chair of a National Academy of Sciences panel that studied* missile defense technologies at the request of Congress.

“Even if we darken the sky with hundreds or thousands of satellites and interceptors, there’s no way to ensure against a dedicated attack,” Montague said in an interview. “So it’s an opportunity to waste a prodigious amount of money.”

He called the provisions passed by Congress “insanity, pure and simple.”

The National Academy study, released in 2012, concluded that even a bare-bones space-based missile defense system would cost about $200 billion to put in place, and hundreds of billions to operate in subsequent years.

Franks, asked whether the country could afford it, replied: “What is national security worth? It’s priceless.”

Philip E. Coyle III, a former assistant secretary of Defense who headed the Pentagon office responsible for testing and evaluating weapon systems, described the notion of a space-based nuclear shield as “a sham.”

“To do this would cost just gazillions and gazillions,” Coyle said. “The technology isn’t at hand — nor is the money. It’s unfortunate from my point of view that the Congress doesn’t see that.”

He added: “Both Russia and China will use it as an excuse to do something that they want to do.”

The word “limited” has guided U.S. policy since the National Missile Defense Act of 1999. The qualifier reflects, in part, the reality that intercepting and destroying incoming warheads is supremely difficult, and that it would be impractical to field enough interceptors to counter a large-scale attack. Any such system, by its very nature, would be limited.

The current homeland anti-missile system — the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, or GMD — relies on interceptors at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and Ft. Greely, Alaska. In flight tests, the system, which has cost taxpayers more than $40 billion, has managed to destroy mock enemy warheads only about half the time.

Military officials estimate that, in the event of an attack, the U.S. would have to fire four or five interceptors for every incoming warhead. As a result, the system’s arsenal of 34 operational interceptors could be rapidly depleted.

The 1999 law “threaded the needle between defending against a potential North Korean or Iranian threat and not rocking the boat too much with Russia and China,’’ said Laura Grego, a physicist who led a recent study of GMD for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“So just trashing that without a real substantive discussion is, I think, shameful,” Grego said.

Franks said in an interview that he drew inspiration from President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative of the 1980s, which was intended to use lasers and other space-based weaponry to render nuclear weapons “impotent and obsolete.” Known as “Star Wars,” the initiative cost taxpayers $30 billion, but no system was ever deployed.

Franks said that by striking the word “limited” from the homeland defense system’s mission, and at the same time pursuing a space-based system, the U.S. is on a path to better safeguard its security. He said the new approach would protect both U.S. territory and surveillance satellites.

“I hope that the day will come when we could have solid-state lasers in space that can defeat any missile attack,” said Franks, who represents suburbs north and west of Phoenix. “That day is a long ways off. But fortunately, it’s a little closer, and a little more certain, with the passage of these amendments.”

The new policy he championed says America “should maintain and improve a robust layered missile defense system capable of defending the territory of the United States and its allies against the developing and increasingly complex ballistic missile threat.”

Franks suggested that Americans have no reason to fear a space-based arms race with China or Russia. He also said he had been surprised by the absence of Democratic opposition to his proposals.

The first of his amendments — to eliminate “limited”*from U.S. policy — was approved in April by the House Armed Services Committee with no debate and without a recorded roll-call vote.

At a committee hearing May 17, a senior Democrat on the panel, Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, offered mild protest.

“I think it was a mistake to mandate a poorly thought out, unaffordable and unrealistic missile defense policy, including plans for a space-based missile deterrent,” Cooper said.

But neither Cooper nor any other House Democrat sought to overturn the provisions, *and he was among those who voted to pass the overall bill the next day.

“I’m a little stunned that we didn’t get more profile on it,” Franks said. “That’s fine with me, because that may have made my job easier.”

Franks’ Republican partner on the legislation, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, enjoyed a similarly smooth path.

Deliberations of the Senate Armed Services Committee were closed, forestalling public debate. The legislation was approved by a roll call vote of 16-10, with two Democrats, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Tim Kaine of Virginia, the party’s eventual vice presidential nominee, joining the Republican majority.

In June, Sen. Ed Markey*(D-Mass.)*sought to restore “limited,” saying that the change in U.S. policy would create “the impetus for a new arms race” with Russia and China. Markey offered an amendment on the Senate floor but could not muster enough support to bring it to vote.

The same month, the Obama administration criticized the changes in the Senate bill, saying it “strongly objects” to removing “limited” and to placing anti-missile weaponry in space. The statement stopped short of threatening a veto.

The policy changes were greeted with opposition from another quarter as well.* At a congressional hearing in April, Franks pressed Vice Adm. James D. Syring, director of the Missile Defense Agency, for his stance on expanding U.S. capability into space.
Syring pushed back.

“I have serious concerns about the technical feasibility of the interceptors in space and I have serious concerns about the long-term affordability of a program like that,” he said.

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

So how fast can they "break out" not just with weapons but with a full spectrum of delivery systems and deploy them?....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20161222/p2a/00m/0na/014000c

Gov't set to continue nuclear fuel cycle project despite Monju closure

December 22, 2016 (Mainichi Japan)

The government formally decided at a meeting of Cabinet ministers concerned with nuclear energy on Dec. 21 to decommission the trouble-plagued Monju prototype fast-breeder nuclear reactor in Tsuruga, Fukui Prefecture.

�yRelated�zJapan decides to scrap trouble-plagued Monju prototype reactor

�yRelated�zPlan to decommission troubled Monju reactor meets local criticism

Over 1 trillion yen in taxpayers' money has so far been invested in the reactor -- the core facility in the government's nuclear fuel cycle project in which spent nuclear fuel is reprocessed and reused in nuclear reactors.

Nevertheless, Monju, operated by the government-affiliated Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), will be shut down after being in operation for a total of only 250 days since the reactor reached criticality for the first time in 1994.

Still, the government, which is poised to continue the nuclear fuel cycle project, also agreed at the Dec. 21 meeting to draw up a road map by 2018 toward developing a fast reactor for the project.

In other words, the government is moving toward its "next dream" even without clarifying the cause of the failure of what they called "dream nuclear reactor" Monju and who is responsible for the fiasco.

"It's extremely important to maintain the nuclear fuel cycle project and promote the development of a fast reactor," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a news conference following the decision.

However, continuation of the project will likely pose a challenge. The government's nuclear fuel cycle project involves two cycles -- one centered on a fast-breeder reactor and the other in which mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel, nuclear fuel made from reprocessed plutonium and uranium, is used in nuclear plants.

With the decision to decommission Monju, the cycle involving a fast-breeder reactor has failed. At the same time, the government has failed to smoothly press forward with the cycle involving the use of MOX fuel since most nuclear power plants have been idled since the outbreak of the Fukushima nuclear crisis in March 2011. The No. 3 reactor at Shikoku Electric Power Co.'s Ikata plant is the only nuclear reactor using MOX fuel, which is currently in operation.

A spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Aomori Prefecture is undergoing safety screening by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), and pools holding spent nuclear fuel at atomic power stations across the country are filled to 70 percent of their capacities on average. Japan's stockpile of plutonium, which can be converted to use in nuclear weapons, has kept growing. By the end of 2015, the plutonium Japan possessed domestically and overseas had amounted to 47.9 metric tons.

The development of a fast reactor poses technological challenges. While a breeder reactor is designed to increase the amount of plutonium, the government emphasizes that a fast reactor that it is aiming to develop will play the role of an "incinerator" for nuclear waste such as by reducing the volume of high-level radioactive waste.

However, no experiment has been conducted on a fast reactor using actual radioactive waste. Hirofumi Nakamura, head of JAEA's planning and coordination division, acknowledged that the technology has not even reached the stage prior to putting it into practical use.

Serious questions persist about the feasibility of a fast reactor for economic reasons, and such a reactor is often dubbed as "modern alchemy."

The basic structure of a fast reactor and that of a breeder reactor are basically the same with the only differences being fuel types and arrangements. Therefore, a fast reactor, which is supposed to play the role of an incinerator for spent nuclear fuel, could be converted into a breeder reactor that produces plutonium.

A senior official of JAEA admits that "there is room for converting a fast reactor into one that breeds (plutonium)."

A fast reactor can be put into practical use after the development and production of experimental, prototype and then demonstration reactors. The government participates in the joint development of ASTRID, a French demonstration fast reactor. However, it remains unclear whether data and knowledge gained from the project in France, which is rarely hit by earthquakes, can be utilized in quake-prone Japan.

France is aiming to begin to operate the fast reactor in the 2030s, but the necessary funds for the project have only been allocated up to 2019. Questions remain as to whether Japan, which has aborted its project involving Monju, a prototype reactor, can be involved in a project to develop an upper-tier demonstration reactor.

Even those within the governing coalition are calling for caution in Japan's involvement in the joint development project in France. "Japan shouldn't ride on someone's (France's) back," said Hiroshi Hase, former education, culture, sports, science and technology minister.

NRA Chairman Shunichi Tanaka dismissed the feasibility of a demonstration reactor. "I understand that a demonstration reactor isn't realistic," Tanaka told a news conference on Dec. 21.

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Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/syrian-army-says-aleppo-retaken-183824917.html

Syria army says Aleppo retaken after evacuation

Maher Al-Mounes
AFP
December 22, 2016

Aleppo (Syria) (AFP) - The army said Thursday it has retaken full control of Syria's devastated second city Aleppo, scoring its biggest victory against opposition forces since the civil war erupted in 2011.

The announcement came after a landmark evacuation deal that put an end to a ferocious month-long offensive waged on east Aleppo by government forces and allied militia.

Earlier, the Red Cross said more than 4,000 fighters had left rebel-held areas of the city in the final stages of an evacuation.

The loss of east Aleppo is the biggest blow to Syria's rebel movement in the nearly six-year conflict, which has killed more than 310,000 people.

It puts the government in control of the country's five main cities: Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Damascus, and Latakia.

President Bashar al-Assad's victory in Aleppo is a boon for his allies in Moscow and Tehran and a defeat for the opposition's backers, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and some Western states.

Because of the intensity of these global rivalries -- particularly between Russia and the United States -- the international community struggled for years to respond to the bloodshed in Syria.

"The liberation of Aleppo is not only a victory for Syria but also for those who really contribute to the fight against terrorism, notably Russia and Iran," state news agency SANA quoted Assad as saying before the army announcement on Thursday.

The evacuation effort had been hampered by heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures, leaving evacuees waiting in unheated buses for hours.

"Overnight between Wednesday and Thursday, in one of the last stages of the evacuation, more than 4,000 fighters were evacuated in private cars, vans, and pick-ups from eastern Aleppo," said Ingy Sedky, the spokeswoman in Syria for the International Committee of the Red Cross.

She said about 34,000 people had left rebel areas of Aleppo under the evacuation plan.

The United Nations said it had deployed observers to monitor the final evacuations, under a Security Council resolution adopted on Monday.

- Pivotal moment -

Jens Laerke, spokesman for the UN humanitarian agency, said 31 staff had been assigned for monitoring at the crossing point at Ramussa, the government-held district of southern Aleppo through which evacuation convoys have been leaving.
"It's been a very difficult night. The weather is really harsh, and people are leaving in hundreds of private vehicles at different levels of disrepair," he told AFP.

Heavy snowfall from Wednesday, which blanketed Aleppo and the surrounding countryside, had slowed down the evacuations.

"The bad weather, including heavy snow and wind, and the poor state of vehicles... mean things are moving much more slowly than expected," Sedky said.

Rebel forces, who seized control of east Aleppo in 2012, agreed to withdraw from the bastion after a month-long army offensive that drove them from more than 90 percent of their former territory.

The deal was brokered by Russia, which launched air strikes in support of Assad's regime last year, and Turkey, which has supported some rebel groups.

As part of the Aleppo evacuation deal, it was agreed some residents would be allowed to leave Fuaa and Kafraya, two Shiite-majority villages in northwestern Syria that are under siege by the Sunni Muslim rebels.

About 1,000 people have been able to leave the villages in recent days.

The evacuation of Aleppo's rebel sector is a pivotal moment in a war that has triggered a major humanitarian and refugee crisis.

As well as a major strategic gain for Assad, the rebel withdrawal from Aleppo has given fresh impetus to international efforts to end the conflict.

Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed this week to guarantee Syria peace talks and backed expanding a ceasefire, laying down their claim as the main powerbrokers in the war.

- Powerful symbol -

Repeated attempts at peace have failed, but UN envoy Staffan de Mistura has said he hopes to convene fresh talks in Geneva in February.

Formerly the beating heart of Syria's commercial and cultural industries, Aleppo has been split since July 2012 between rebels in the east and the government in the west.

East Aleppo became a powerful symbol for Syria's opposition, which set up its own administration to run schools, electricity, and water there.

Opposition fighters lobbed rockets into government-held territory, and regime forces battered the east with air strikes and artillery.

Moscow's military intervention in support of Assad marked a major turning point in the war.

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Thursday the Russian air force has killed 35,000 fighters in Syria since it began in September last year.

Turkey launched its own campaign in Syria in late August in support of pro-Ankara rebels, with the aim of ousting Islamic State group jihadists as well as Kurdish militia from areas near its border.

Turkish air strikes killed at least 47 civilians including 14 children Thursday in the IS-held town of Al-Bab, which Turkish forces have been seeking to capture for weeks, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said.

The raids came a day after 14 Turkish soldiers were killed by jihadists around Al-Bab, in the country's biggest loss of the campaign so far.

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim vowed Thursday to press on, saying: "Turkey is in the midst of a great struggle -- our fight against terror continues both in our country and outside our borders."

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Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

Just came across this...Interesting to say the least...HC

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://jamestown.org/program/kremlins-lpr-dpr-unite-fight/

Are the Kremlin’s LPR and DPR About to Unite or Fight Each Other?

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 196
By: Paul Goble
December 14, 2016 05:57 PM Age: 1 week

The Kremlin has deliberately obscured the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), in eastern Ukraine, under a fog of confusion. As such, on a single day last week, a Russian analyst argued that the two self-styled republics are about to unite into one entity (Novorossiya), while at the same time a Ukrainian analyst saw signs that the two Moscow-sponsored statelets are almost at the point of declaring war on each other even though their Russian curators are reportedly purging the most radical Russian nationalists in each.

On one hand, that fog reflects the internal problems of the two self-proclaimed entities—problems that have only been exacerbated by the uncertain future of Donbas. And on the other hand, it reveals the Kremlin’s clear desire to keep as many of its options open as possible. Moscow wants to continue destabilizing Ukraine, even while talking peace; but it also particularly wants to avoid any actions that could lead to a violent reaction against the Kremlin by Russian nationalists in the Russian Federation. The two analysts’ sharply contrasting predictions as to what will happen next in eastern Ukraine, combined with the reports of a Moscow-ordered “cleansing” of the ranks of the Russia-backed militants there, provide a remarkable glimpse into developments on the ground in Donbas as well as offer some ideas about the range of options Moscow may choose from in the near future.

In a commentary on Moscow’s Svobodnaya Pressa portal, Russian analyst Dmitry Rodionov says that rumors are swirling in the DPR and LPR that the two may soon join together to restart Vladimir Putin’s “Novorossiya” project (Svpressa.ru, December 8). Such a union would make the DPR the dominant local player and would likely set the stage for more Russian aggression deeper into Ukraine.

The Moscow commentator suggests that there is more enthusiasm for this idea among DPR leaders than among their counterparts in Luhansk; and he further adds that the former may be prepared to use a show of force to secure such an outcome. That possibility opened the way for Ukrainian analyst Aleksey Konstantinov to draw the conclusion that the two Russian supported statelets may be on the brink of an open military conflict—a reflection of both the weakness and the desire of the DPR to dominate the situation (Apostrophe.ua, December 8).

On the one hand, of course, this may simply be a case of wishful thinking in Kyiv—a sense that the two Russian entities have been weakened by desertions, incessant fighting, shortages, and the Ukrainian special operations. Indeed, far too often Ukrainian outlets have reported developments that, if true, should have proven the death knell of Putin’s broader project in Ukraine. But on the other hand, precisely because Konstantinov’s words echo in part those of Rodionov, they may represent something more: the descent of these two Moscow efforts into a kind of atamanshchina (see below), with which Ukrainians had their fill at the dawn of Soviet times.

The word “atamanshchina” refers to the rule of the atamans, formal or often informal Cossack leaders who ruled by force and violence and served their own interests rather than any broader political or ideological agenda. Some of them fought for a time on the side of the Bolsheviks, and others on the side of the anti-Bolshevik White Russians. But at all times, they fought for themselves and represented a danger to anyone trying to impose state order on them. Indeed, it took the brutality of the Red Army and the Cheka some years to wipe them out across the Soviet Union.

And that makes the third report, about Russian efforts to purge the most committed and radical Russian nationalists from the ranks of leaders in the DPR and LPR especially significant. Leaders of such groups, including Aleksandr Khodakovsky of the so-called Patriotic Forces of Donbas, are complaining loudly about this (Patriot-Donetsk.ru, December 7; Evrazia.org, December 10). When Moscow invaded Ukraine, the Kremlin was only too pleased to have Russian nationalists as volunteers there. But now that the situation has dragged on, the Russian government is less happy about such people, both because they are less subject to discipline and because, on returning to Russia, they are a problem for the authorities—people with military experience and angry about Moscow’s failure to advance further into Ukraine.

Moscow clearly wants to rid itself of these people in order to strengthen its control of the situation, but the Russian authorities do not want them to come back home. Combining the DPR and LPR is one way to do that because it eliminates some of the positions Moscow has to ensure are staffed. But having the two fight it out is even better as there is a good chance that some of these Russian nationalist radicals would be killed—and that others would see the fight as evidence of Moscow’s willingness to renew the battle for Novorossiya. Consequently, these three reports taken together point to a conclusion that must be worrisome to Ukraine and all who care about its future: Moscow is hunkering down in Donbas for the long term and is working to create the kind of disciplined force it would use to expand its aggression into Ukraine.

Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/arti...il&utm_term=0_b02a5f1344-d505c02ad8-117247657

Violence in Mexico Surges

DECEMBER 21, 2016 | KAITLIN LAVINDER

Mexico’s homicide rate is surging. Government and independent sources are reporting an up to 18 percent increase for 2016, compared to last year.

This comes on the heels of a multi-year decline in criminal violence in many parts of the country. It has been more than six years since Mexico’s murder rate shot up so “dramatically,” notes former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico (2002-2009) Antonia Garza.

The U.S. has given Mexico $139 million this year to help “advance justice sector reform, modernize Mexico’s borders (north and south), and support violence prevention programs.” This aid is part of the Mérida Initiative, a $2.5 billion, eight-year bilateral security agreement that went into effect in 2008 and that Ambassador Garza helped spearhead.

So why is violence on the rise, and why isn’t billions of dollars of U.S. aid sufficient in boosting security?

The answer lies largely in the failure of well-intentioned policies. Former Mexican President Felipe Calderón started the country’s war on drugs in earnest in December 2006, when he sent 6,500 federal troops to Michoacán state to eliminate cartel operations there.

During his six years in office, Calderón’s method of ending drug violence was to use federal forces to wipe out drug lords and patrol cities, while getting state and local law enforcement officers to clean up their acts – that is, end the cycle of corruption and involvement with criminal organizations – and also aid in the eradication of Mexico’s leading criminals.

Mexico’s current president, Enrique Peña Nieto, has more or less carried out this same approach. But hitting drug cartels at the top only creates eventual fragmentation, Dwight Dyer told The Cipher Brief. Dyer, who is the former Head of Analysis at Mexican national intelligence agency Cisen, explained that when ring leaders are captured, groups tend to break up quickly into smaller factions, resulting in more competition and leading to more violence.

The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), for example, is a splinter group that gained strength in a power vacuum. “In the early 2010s, the CJNG was thought to be a local ally of the much larger Sinaloa Cartel, but with the passing of its archrivals Los Caballeros Templarios in Michoacán state, in 2014-15, and the arrest of Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzman [head of the Sinaloa Cartel], it has come into its own and seems to be challenging the Sinaloa Cartel in various locales,” says Dyer.

CJNG is now “amongst the most murderous” criminal organizations, say Garza and Stephanie Leutert, a Mexico Security Initiative fellow at the University of Texas at Austin. It is expanding its reach to areas not previously known for extreme violence, “from Colima to Michoacán to Veracruz,” they say.

Dyer notes CJNG is also spreading into Tijuana, in Baja California state, on the U.S.-Mexico border. The Baja State Secretariat for Public Security reported an increase in homicide rates in the first seven months of this year, compared to last year.

In addition to this seemingly effective but in reality insufficient policy of targeting criminals at the top of the totem pole, the Calderón-era of judicial reform has yet to prove fruitful.

A series of reforms, passed in 2008, intended to create more transparency in the judiciary and transform it from “a closed inquisitorial system toward an adversarial model,” explains Kimberly Breier, Director of the U.S.-Mexico Futures Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in a recent article. However, writes Breier, that model has “yet to be fully implemented” and there remains “slow progress on rule-of-law issues.”

Dyer comments that without reform of the justice system, it does not matter how much money is thrown at federal, state, and local forces – the violence won’t end. “If there is something that Mexican politicians-***-criminals have never stopped fearing, it is federal courts in Texas,” he said.

Compounding the failures of Mexico’s judiciary is widespread corruption within President Peña Nieto’s ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Recently, the Governor of Veracruz, Javier Duarte, was linked to organized crime and expelled from the PRI. Two other outgoing PRI governors are facing charges of fraud. And President Peña Nieto faces the highest disapproval rating recorded for any Mexican president, at 66 percent.

Then there’s the fluctuating economy, which, when weak, can exacerbate corruption amongst politicos and law enforcement, enabling criminal groups and violence to flourish.

Low oil prices have had a drag on the Mexican economy, given the country’s role as an energy supplier. The 2008 financial crisis in the U.S. also took its toll, since America is Mexico’s largest export market.

This October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2016 GDP growth forecast for Mexico by 0.2 percent, to 2.4 percent. Credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Mexico. In August, S&P Global Ratings revised the country’s outlook from stable to negative, citing substandard growth and rising sovereign borrowings.

The connection between economics, corruption, and a failed strategy to eliminate drug cartels has diminished the effectiveness of U.S. financial aid to help Mexico fight its war on drugs. According to Breier, the United States, instead, should look to other methods of weakening organized crime influence. “Success will depend primarily on U.S.-Mexican intelligence and law enforcement partnerships and the mutual sharing of information,” she said.

The U.S. could also do more to curtail drug demand in the United States. “Violence in Mexico is largely fueled by two illicit trades: drugs moving north and weapons moving south,” Dyer points out.

An economically more vibrant, politically stronger, and less violent Mexico is in the interest of the United States. Mexico is a huge export market for America, and thus, a source of millions of U.S. jobs. Plus, a better situation at home means fewer Mexicans crossing the border into the United States looking for jobs – a major concern for President-elect Donald Trump.

It is unclear if Mr. Trump will continue the Mérida Initiative of security cooperation or come up with a new approach to assist Mexico with its critical security needs. What is clear is that Mexico’s current efforts are not working.

Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.

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Housecarl · Dec 22, 2016

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nationalreview.com/artic...claves-europe-jihad-terrorism-problem-growing

German Lesson: Islamist Enclaves Breed Jihadism

Islamist enclaves in European cities are a bigger problem than the infiltration of trained jihadists from the Middle East.

By Andrew C. McCarthy — December 22, 2016 4:00 AM

German investigators have named a Tunisian refugee, Anis Amri, as the jihadist whom they suspect carried out Tuesday’s mass-murder attack. Amri is believed to be the man who drove a truck through a Christmas festival in Berlin, killing twelve and wounding four dozen others in an atrocity reminiscent of the attack in July, when 86 people were killed at a Bastille Day celebration in Nice.

Notwithstanding that they arrested and held the wrong man for several hours, it turns out that German authorities have been well aware that Amri posed a danger. He is yet another of what my friend the terrorism analyst Patrick Poole has dubbed “known wolves” — Islamic terrorists who were already spotlighted by counterterrorism investigators as likely to strike.

Amri, who is variously reported to be 23 or 24, arrived in Germany in July 2015 as an asylum-seeker. He was able to remain because of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s suicidal open-door policy for refugees from the Muslim Middle East and North Africa. Prosecutors in Berlin attempted to deport Amri back in June, after learning three months earlier that he was planning “a serious act of violent subversion.” He is reportedly a follower of Abu Walaa, an Iraqi sharia-supremacist firebrand who was recently arrested on suspicion of being a top ISIS leader and recruiter in Germany.

His terrorist activities aside, Amri has also been involved in narcotics trafficking, theft, and the torching of a school. That last felony occurred in Italy, where the “refugee” was sentenced to five years in prison before being welcomed into Deutschland. All that baggage, and still the Germans allowed him to remain. Reportedly, officials felt they could not deport him because he did not have a passport and the Tunisian government would not acknowledge him (despite the fact that the Tunisian government had convicted him in absentia of a violent robbery). That might explain a brief delay in repatriating him; it does not explain a legal system that permits a suspect with a lengthy, violent criminal record to remain at liberty while he is suspected of plotting mass-murder attacks.

Tuesday’s atrocity highlights an aspect of the refugee crisis to which I have been trying to draw attention for over a year: The main threat posed by the West’s mass acceptance of immigrant populations from sharia cultures is not that some percentage of the migrants will be trained terrorists. It is that a much larger percentage of these populations is stubbornly resistant to assimilation. They are thus fortifying sharia enclaves throughout Europe. That is what fuels the jihad. It would be foolish to think it couldn’t happen here, too.

To be sure, the infiltration of trained terrorists is a huge problem; even a small percentage would compute to thousands of jihadists within the swarms of migrants. Alas, that is a secondary concern. The bigger threat is the enclaves.

These are not merely parallel societies in which the law and mores of the host countries are supplanted by Islamic law and Islamist mores. Even residents who are not jihadists tend to be jihadist sympathizers — or, at least, to be intimidated into keeping any objections to themselves. That turns these neighborhoods into safe havens for jihadist recruitment, training, fund-raising, and harboring. They enable the jihadists to plan attacks against the host country and then elude the authorities after the attacks.

In short, the jihad succeeds not just because of the jihadists, but primarily because of the swelling, assimilation-resistant communities. They are the incubators.

Recall the horrific November 2015 Paris attacks, in which 130 were killed. The atrocities spurred what was said to be a tireless transcontinental manhunt. When Salah Abdeslam, one of the main culprits, evaded capture for four months, it was assumed that he must have made his way to Syria, rejoining his ISIS confederates.

But in mid March, he was captured in Belgium, just a few paces from his family home in Brussels’s Molenbeek district. He had been moving with relative ease from safe-house to safe-house.

Belgians were not surprised to hear it. Molenbeek is a notorious Islamist enclave. As the Independent reported, the neighborhoods there are a “magnet for jihadists,” and the community, home to many Moroccan and Turkish immigrants, “has been connected to almost all of Belgium’s [several] terrorism-related incidents in recent years.”

Belgium does not admit that it has so-called no-go zones, where Islamists challenge the authority of the host country to govern. German officials similarly pretend the problem does not exist. But Gatestone Institute’s superb analyst Soeren Kern recently published a jaw-dropping report, “Inside Germany’s No-Go Zones,” part one of which focuses on North Rhine–Westphalia. It is Germany’s most populous state, and it just happens to be where Anis Amri lived — in housing set aside for asylum seekers.

Kern observes that the German press has identified more than 40 “problem areas” across the country. The newspaper Bild describes parts of Berlin, Hamburg, and elsewhere as “burgeoning ghettos, parallel societies and no-go areas.” The Rheinische Post reports that numerous parts of North Rhine–Westphalia fall into this category:

Aachen, Bielefeld, Bochum, Bonn, Bottrop, Dorsten, Duisburg, Düsseldorf, Essen, Euskirchen, Gelsenkirchen-Süd, Gladbeck, Hagen, Hamm, Heinsberg, Herne, Iserlohn, Kleve, Cologne, Lippe, Lüdenscheid, Marl, Mettmann, Minden, Mönchengladbach, Münster, Neuss, Oberhausen, Recklinghausen, Remscheid, Rhein-Erft-Kreis, Rhein-Sieg-Kreis, Solingen, Unna, Witten and Wuppertal.

How do these communities operate in practice? Kern relates:

The president of the German Police Union, Rainer Wendt, told Spiegel Online years ago: “In Berlin or in the north of Duisburg there are neighborhoods where colleagues hardly dare to stop a car — because they know that they’ll be surrounded by 40 or 50 men.” These attacks amount to a “deliberate challenge to the authority of the state — attacks in which the perpetrators are expressing their contempt for our society.”

If we are lucky, Anis Amri will be apprehended before long, and before he can strike again. It is entirely possible, though, that he will remain on the lam for some time. Like Salah Abdeslam and other jihadists, he is not without places to go.

And that is the crux of our challenge here at home. It is not just a matter of weeding out the trained jihadists from among the tens of thousands of refugees the Obama administration has already admitted, and the 110,000 more refugees for whose admission in 2017 the president has paved the way. The real problem is the thousands of assimilation-resistant refugees who will gravitate to and reinforce Islamist communities. They could form the breeding grounds and sanctuaries for the jihadists of tomorrow.

— Andrew C. McCarthy is a senior policy fellow at the National Review Institute and a contributing editor of National Review.

WAR 12-17-2016-to-12-23-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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