WAR 12-12-2015-to-12-18-2015_____THEWINDSofWAR

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

(193) 11-21-2015-to-11-27-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...27-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(194) 11-28-2015-to-12-04-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...04-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(195) 12-05-2015-to-12-11-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...11-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

_____

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.wsj.com/articles/india-a...nse-deals-in-show-of-stronger-ties-1449918627

India and Japan Sign Rail and Defense Deals in Show of Stronger Ties

The two countries also moved closer toward a nuclear deal

By Gabriele Parussini
Dec. 12, 2015 6:10 a.m. ET
0 COMMENTS

MUMBAI—India and Japan on Saturday signed a $15 billion high-speed rail agreement and a raft of other accords to strengthen ties, as countries across Asia seek to counterbalance China’s growing assertiveness in the region.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra and Shinzo Abe, his Japanese counterpart, said they would run joint naval exercises and agreed to transfer technology to increase arms production in India. They also took a step toward a pact on the use of civil-nuclear energy, but said technical details needed to be ironed out before a final agreement was signed.

“We have made enormous progress in economic cooperation and in our regional partnership and security cooperation,” said Mr. Modi.

The two countries announced they had agreed a plan to build the 500-kilometer high-speed corridor, a significant upgrade to India’s outdated and slow railway system.

The multibillion-dollar deal to build a railway between Mumbai and Gujarat’s capital, Ahmedabad, comes as the last step of a quick rapprochement between Asia’s two largest democracies over the past 18 months, in what observers see as a concerted effort to build a counterweight to China’s influence.

The railway deal—which comes with financing worth $12 billion on terms Mr. Modi described as “very easy”—also represents a boon for Japanese business, which has suffered embarrassing losses to China in bids for bullet-train contracts in Indonesia and Thailand.

The high-speed railway project will use technology developed to build Japan’s extensive Shinkansen network—on which trains run at more than 300 kilometers an hour—and will be a welcome update to India’s vast but often inefficient and overburdened railway network, which acts as a break on the country’s economic growth.

“This enterprise will launch a revolution on Indian railways and speed up India’s journey into the future,” Mr. Modi said at the news conference. “It will become an engine of economic transformation in India.”

An energy accord with Japan would allow India to boost its nuclear-power production, easing international pressure for the South Asian nation to cut carbon emissions generated by its coal-fired power plants.

News of the rail deal came out ahead of the meeting, but officials said that talks on the nuclear deal were continuing Friday evening.

India needs nuclear technology to boost the energy supply to its fast-expanding economy, while keeping its carbon emissions—already the world’s fourth-largest—under control.

Japan, the only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, sought assurances from India, which isn’t a signatory on the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a 1968 agreement signed by 190 countries, to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

“I know the significance of this decision for Japan, and I assure you that India deeply respect that decision and will honor and respect its commitments,” Mr. Modi said.

Messrs. Modi and Abe said Japan will take part in the India-U.S. Malabar naval exercises off the coast of the South Asian country on a regular basis, to develop stronger capabilities to deal with maritime challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.

Mr. Modi indicated his support for Mr. Abe as Asian nations struggle with their response to China’s moves to reclaim land in small reefs whose sovereignty is contested by its South China Sea neighbors, including Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines.

The two leaders stressed the “critical importance” of the sea lanes in the South China Sea for regional security, trade and commerce, and called on all states to avoid unilateral actions that could lead to tensions in the region.

“We stand strongly for ensuring freedom of navigation and oversight on maritime commerce. We believe that disputes must be resolved peacefully and that all countries must abide by international laws and norms on maritime issues,” Mr. Modi said.

The two countries also signed agreements on military intelligence and the transfer of defense technology to manufacture weapons in India.

Japan said it supported India’s application to join the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, a group of 21 Pacific Rim member economies that promotes free trade throughout the region. It also allocated 1.5 trillion yen ($12.41 billion) to promote bilateral trade.

Write to Gabriele Parussini at gabriele.parussini@wsj.com

Related

Modi Embraces Abe; Still Holds China Close
India’s Modi Seeks to Attract More Japanese Investment
India and Japan Pursue Closer Ties to Counter China

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

Hummm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...-Syrian-opposition-meeting-breakthrough-.html

Saudi hails Syrian opposition meet ‘breakthrough’

Staff writer, Al Arabiya News
Saturday, 12 December 2015

Saudi Arabia described a meeting aimed at unifying Syria’s opposition groups in the capital Riyadh to form a single delegation for upcoming negotiations as a “breakthrough,” the state-owned Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported on Saturday.

France on Friday also welcomed the Syrian opposition’s agreement to form a delegation to negotiate with the Syrian regime, describing the move as a “major step” towards solving the conflict in their country.

“France welcomes the conference of the Syrian opposition that was recently concluded by adopting a common program, which reaffirms commitment in a united, free and democratic Syria which respects rights of all citizens,” French Foreign Ministry Spokesman Romain Nadal told a press briefing.

Previously, Saudi King Salman reiterated Riyadh’s keenness to bring about security, stability and justice to Syria.

“I would like to tell you that Syria is dear to us and our relations with Syria are historical and the Syrian and welfare of the Syrian brethren is important to us,” the king told the opposition leaders when they met late Thursday.

The opposition delegation is due to a New York conference in Vienna grouping Syria’s warring sides will instead take place on Dec. 18.

The Riyadh meeting and the upcoming conference come after an international agreement to launch talks between the government and opposition on Jan. 1.

In response, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said he will not join negotiations and that he has the majority backing of Syrians, in an interview transcript published by state media on Friday.

Asked whether he would be willing to join negotiations called for by world powers by Jan. 1, he said: “They want the Syrian government to negotiate with terrorists, something I don’t think anyone would accept in any country.”

Last Update: Saturday, 12 December 2015 KSA 14:11 - GMT 11:11

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.rferl.org/content/white-...ssible-on-assad-exit-from-syria/27421835.html

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Russia

White House Official: U.S.-Russia Agreement Possible On Assad's Exit

By Carl Schreck
December 11, 2015

A senior White House official has voiced cautious optimism that the United States and Russia could reach an agreement on a political transition in Syria, which Washington says will be a focus of talks in Moscow next week between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Celeste Wallander, senior director for Russia and Central Asia on U.S. President Barack Obama’s National Security Council, said "it’s clear” that an agreement is possible between the U.S.-led coalition and Moscow on the political exit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia's staunch ally, as part of a transition in Syria.

“We wouldn’t be having these negotiations if we didn’t think that there was a possibility that Russia's position is evolving such that we could agree,” Wallander told RFE/RL in a December 11 interview.

The United States and its allies have insisted that Assad cannot be part of any peaceful resolution to the nearly five-year-old civil war in Syria, where his forces are fighting both Islamic State (IS) militants and moderate opposition groups -- some backed by the U.S.-led coalition -- seeking to oust him.

Russia rejects that position, saying it should be up to the Syrian people to choose their leader and that Assad’s army is the force most capable of defeating IS fighters that have captured large swaths of Syria and Iraq.

"I don’t know that the positions have come closer, but it's clear that there could be an agreement on a transition that meets U.S. and coalition requirements that Assad not be part of Syria’s leadership, and those are the discussions that are under intensive focus right now,” Wallander said.

The State Department announced earlier in the day that Kerry will visit Moscow on December 15 to meet with Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

“They will discuss ongoing efforts to achieve a political transition in Syria and related efforts to degrade and destroy ISIL,” the State Department said in a statement, using an alternate acronym for the extremist group.

Russia in late September began bombing armed groups fighting Assad in what Moscow has framed as a counterterrorist campaign. The United States and its allies have accused Moscow of bombing the moderate Syrian opposition and using its military intervention to prop up Assad rather than targeting IS positions -- criticism that Russia has rejected.

Wallander said the "political process that's underway" in Syria would be the primary focus of Kerry's visit to Moscow, which comes ahead of planned talks in Vienna next month between Syrian opposition groups and the government on a political solution to the conflict.

But she said they would also look at how Russia can "match its rhetoric to its actual actions and to get serious about fighting ISIL, not about defending [Assad’s] regime.”

"The overwhelming majority of Russian military actions and support is to the Assad regime, to the Assad military forces," Wallander said.

She added, however, that since the downing of a Russian passenger plane over Egypt in October that killed all 224 people on board, which IS militants claimed responsibility for, Russian bombers have struck IS targets "with somewhat more frequency."

The State Department said Kerry will also discuss the Ukraine conflict and "stress the need for full implementation" of the Minsk accords to halt violence between Kyiv's forces and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine that the UN says has killed more than 9,000 people since April 2014.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden told Ukraine’s parliament this week that Washington "will maintain pressure until Moscow fulfills its Minsk commitments" and that that U.S. sanctions against Moscow will remain in place "until Russia meets all of its commitments under the” accords signed in February.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded ambiguously to a question about whether a Putin-Kerry meeting would take place.

"If you ask me whether the meeting [of Kerry] with Putin will take place, I will repeat once again that we do not rule out the possibility of such a meeting," the state-run TASS news agency cited Peskov as saying on December 11.

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/libya-rivals-agree-to-sign-un-backed-peace-deal-20151212

Libya rivals agree to sign UN-backed peace deal

2015-12-12 08:25

Tunis - Libya's rival parliaments will sign a UN-sponsored agreement next week on forming a national unity government, they announced on Friday, as world leaders press them to end chaos in the country.

Salah el-Makhzoum, a vice president of the Tripoli-based parliament, called this a "happy day" in announcing the accord will be signed on December 16.

An official of the internationally recognised parliament, Mohammed Choueib, said that "after lengthy efforts... we announce to our people that we have decided to move beyond this difficult period... and ask everyone to join us".

Choueib said the deal could be signed in Morocco, which hosted most of a year of talks brokered by UN envoy Leon Bernardino that led to the proposed deal in October.

But neither he nor Makhzoum said whether they would have to clear the signing with their respective legislative bodies, which had rejected the deal after their negotiating teams agreed to it in October.

And just Sunday, delegates from both sides announced they had reached a joint "declaration of principles" aimed at resolving a crisis after secret talks that did not include the UN.

Under the UN-brokered deal, Libya would be governed by a nine-member presidential council comprising a prime minister, five deputy premiers and three senior ministers.

Libya descended into chaos following the 2011 ouster and killing of long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi.

The oil-rich country has had rival administrations since August 2014, when an Islamist-backed militia alliance overran Tripoli, forcing the recognised government to take refuge in the east.

Protesters reject UN deal

Hundreds of protesters gathered in Tripoli's main square on Friday afternoon, waving Libyan flags and holding signs calling for a rejection of the UN deal and backing the one reached at the weekend.

They were called onto the streets by Libya Dawn, the Islamist militia coalition that is a key backer of the Tripoli government.

Demonstrator Abdel Hamid Zawawi said: "After I saw that the EU countries and the US are insisting on the UN deal, I was convinced [it] should be out of the question."

On Tuesday, after announcement of the separate agreement, ambassadors to Libya from several EU countries and the United States warned against attempts to derail the UN-brokered deal, saying it was the only way forward.

Friday's announcement comes just two days before world leaders are set to gather in Rome to try to speed up the formation of a unity government in Libya, where chaos is fuelling the rise of the Islamic State group.

It was not immediately clear how Friday's development might affect that meeting or its agenda.

Italy's Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni, due to co-chair the talks with US counterpart John Kerry, has said the aim is a "decisive push" for a deal to help create stability, ease a dire humanitarian situation and smother a flourishing jihadist hotbed.

Kerry and Gentiloni will sit down with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and representatives from Britain, China and France, Germany, Spain as well as Algeria, Chad, Morocco, Niger, Qatar, Tunisia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

"You can never repeat often enough the danger that the presence of Daesh represents for Libya," Tunisian PM Habib Essid said Friday on the sidelines of a Mediterranean security conference in Rome, using an Arabic acronym for ISIS.

Friday's announcement came on a second day of meetings in Tunis with Leon's successor, Martin Kobler.

UN envoy 'very encouraged'

Kobler said on Thursday he felt "very encouraged" and had "big confidence in our meeting tomorrow [Friday] because we are going to define the messages for the meeting in Rome".

"The international community is very interested in this process, in particular the threat emanating from terrorism," he said.

"There must be a legitimate government very soon."

The UN estimates there are between 2 000 and 3 000 jihadist fighters in Libya, and local officials warn of hundreds of Tunisians, Sudanese or Nigerians travelling there for training.

It was not yet clear who would represent the rival factions in Rome.

European sources say the aim is to form a unity government by the end of the year, after which UN sanctions could be imposed to force an accord.

"There is an absolute emergency. Every week that passes is used by ISIS to try to make Libya a terrorist base," French European Affairs Minister Harlem Desir said on Friday.

Italy's Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has been saying for months that the Islamist threat is as severe in Libya as in Syria, and that Rome is ready to take command of a military mission should the UN agree.

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://news.investors.com/blogs-cap...will-north-koreas-next-step-be-an-h-bomb-.htm

BD Editorials » Capital Hill »
Capital Hill
Political & Economic Analysis

Why A North Korean H-Bomb Isn't That Far-Fetched

1 Comment

BY THOMAS MCARDLE
12/11/2015 02:35 PM ET

When North Korea's impulsive and eccentric young dictator Kim Jong Un on Thursday claimed, off the cuff, that his regime was "a powerful nuclear weapons state ready to detonate a self-reliant A-bomb and H-bomb to reliably defend its sovereignty and the dignity of the nation," the White House and a number of nuclear weaponry experts were quick to scoff at the notion of a North Korean hydrogen weapon.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said current information "calls into serious question those claims, but we take very seriously the risk and the threat that is posed by the North Korean regime in their ambitions to develop a nuclear weapon."

No one, however, should be too quick to dismiss the most isolated and repressive country in the world as a nuclear JV squad.

John Wilson Lewis, Chinese politics professor at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, and Xue Litai, a research associate at CISAC, muddied the widely-embraced notion that the megaton-level destructive power of the H-bomb is unreachable to all but the most advanced nations.

In their widely-praised 1991 book "China Builds the Bomb," Lewis and Xue point out that after Beijing produced an A-bomb, mostly without foreign assistance, the H-bomb was not a difficult challenge.

"One reason why it was so much easier to build the thermonuclear weapon than a fission one was that a staff with the basic scientific and technical expertise had already been assembled and had gone through the experience of building a nuclear weapon," Lewis and Xue wrote. They quoted leading Chinese nuclear scientist at the time, Liu Xiyao, as saying, "We knew what kinds of materials should be used to carry our thermonuclear fusion. We also commanded the necessary fundamentals \ had been used to make hydrogen bombs in the United States, the Soviet Union and Great Britain."

Liu added that "we had calculators and rudimentary computers sufficient for calculating and verifying the theoretical design of thermonuclear reactions." But Beijing could not procure "any secret scientific or technical data concerning hydrogen bomb development." China did, though, find out what materials an H-bomb would require by studying reports published in other countries.

According to Liu, they "knew nothing, however, about the performance of those materials ... or about the concrete conditions under which a hydrogen bomb would be detonated." They were also at a disadvantage in having to use uranium rather than plutonium as the fission trigger.

Yet the Chinese finished their design a month ahead of schedule and in 1966 tested an H-bomb.

In 2015, the knowledge and computer power that China struggled to obtain are all readily available to Pyongyang. So no wonder Institute for Science and International Security chief David Albright, while skeptical of North Korea having developed an H-bomb already, told Reuters on Thursday that there have been concerns that North Korea was seeking thermonuclear weapons for several years now.

Such a weapon can kill millions. With long-range missiles that can reach Alaska, Hawaii and even the West Coast, the Obama administration had best not add North Korea to its list of enemies it underestimates.

Follow Thomas McArdle on Twitter: @IBD_TMcArdle
Follow us: @IBDinvestors on Twitter | InvestorsBusinessDaily on Facebook

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://fpif.org/u-s-fueling-south-asias-nuclear-arms-race/

The U.S. Is Fueling South Asia’s Nuclear Arms Race

Washington is effectively subsidizing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal — the fastest-growing in the world — even as the country drifts closer to China and Russia.

By Nazish Kolsy, December 11, 2015.

In early October, the world was reminded of the ongoing deterioration of Afghanistan when U.S. warplanes eviscerated a civilian hospital. For one brief moment, attention returned to the disasters that so often strike the lands of terror and combat, especially in the northern hinterlands of South Asia.

However, this sort of fleeting attention often ignores the deeper political games at play. Neighboring Pakistan, a country often ignored unless its name is mentioned alongside the dangers of the Taliban and negotiations with Afghanistan, has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world.

Since 9/11, Pakistan has ranked among the top recipients of U.S. foreign aid, with its haul totaling $18 billion for fiscal years 2002-2015. However, this number only covers the amount used for economic development, humanitarian aid, and (especially) security-related assistance.

Pakistan has also received an additional $13 billion in Coalition Support Fund (CSF) payments that are meant to reimburse the country for its support of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan. For the 2016 fiscal year, the Obama administration requested $794 million for aid to Pakistan — a 10 percent decrease from 2015 — while the country’s CSF allotment has dropped from $1.2 billion per year in 2010 to $300 million in recent years as the U.S. looks to wind down its military role in the region.

Still, it’s a huge figure. So where does CSF money go? How has that $13 billion been distributed?

Suffice it to say those funds aren’t spent on rehabilitating or relocating the millions of people displaced by years of military operations in the country’s northwest. Instead, they’re funneled back into military spending and counterterrorism efforts. It becomes a vicious cycle of never-ending defense spending — which includes a rapid build-up of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

That nuclear arsenal is Pakistan’s ultimate defense against India — the neighboring nation it’s fought three wars against. Complicating matters, the United States has entered a nuclear agreement with India. That 2005 deal allows India to buy civil nuclear technology for its civilian program, which is subject to international inspections, but didn’t put any limits on its military nuclear program, which is exempt.

Pakistan and India, neither of which signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, are heavily involved in the nuclear arms race in the greater South Asian region. Pakistan’s accelerating nuclear weapons program is a cause for concern for U.S. officials, who are seeking to make a deal with Pakistan to limit its nuclear arsenal. However, these efforts may prove futile, considering the importance the country places on nuclear weapons in its standoff with India.

Meanwhile, as U.S. aid gradually lessens, Pakistan has pivoted to other powerful allies for financial assistance. China and Russia are key sources of economic and military support, with China promising $46 billion in development aid — making up for the cuts made by the United States and then some.

So while the United States remains on good terms with India, it finds itself subsidizing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal — the fastest-growing in the world — even as the country drifts closer to China and Russia. And all that’s in the interest of fighting a militant group, the Taliban, that’s received ample support from the Pakistani security establishment over the years.

This should be interesting.

Nazish Kolsy is a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus.

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://theislamicmonthly.com/the-new-middle-eastern-order/

The New Middle Eastern Order

December 11, 2015 12:10 pm
0 Comments
Views: 111

The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting. Whereas traditional old guard regimes like the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan have been able to resist the Arab Spring, much of the old order has either collapsed or is embroiled in existential conflicts. Conflict remains the order of the day, from the apocalyptic civil war in Syria to the fierce military crackdown in Egypt.

Yet the old guard is being challenged by a new generation of democratic activists seeking a new Middle Eastern order. They are seeking an end to the age of authoritarianism and want representative government, employment opportunities and the prospect of a better future. At the same time, regimes have doubled down on their attempts to quash any perceived threats. Although the democratic awakening is seen as a threat to authoritarian states, broader threats continue to emanate from traditional fault lines, such as the sectarian Sunni-Shia divide.

Saudi Arabia’s attack on Yemen, which began March 25, has increased sectarian divide and brought forth changes in the regional balance of power. This conflict is reshaping historical alliances, heightening religious tension and could potentially set off a Middle Eastern nuclear arms race. The making of a new Middle Eastern order is beginning and can be seen through the lens of the conflict in Yemen and broader changes taking place.

Yemen

The inception of the conflict in Yemen dates back to the beginning of the Arab Spring. Yemen got caught in the changing political winds as a wave of revolutions sparked by the self-immolation of Tunisian street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi led to upheavals across the Middle East.

Protests broke out across Yemen on January 27, 2011. Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been president since 1990, was facing increased pressure from opposition groups demanding political reforms. Saleh initially cracked down hard on the opposition but eventually came to the negotiating table under heavy pressure from the Gulf Cooperation Council. He agreed to leave office in exchange for immunity. Former Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi ran unopposed for the presidency and was easily elected in February 2012.

From Hadi’s election until his resignation in January 2015, Yemen faced a series of significant security challenges. Two primary challenges came from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Houthi rebels.

AQAP, which is part of Ansar al-Shari’a, managed to gain traction during the tumultuous period after Yemen’s revolution. It seized territory in several southern provinces and militants linked to the group captured the cities of Jaar and Zinjibar in 2011. In the aftermath, the U.S. launched an expansive drone program against AQAP with the approval of the Yemeni government. The drone program has managed to eliminate many of AQAP’s top leaders and continues to be used extensively. Although AQAP experienced significant setbacks during Hadi’s tenure, it is reasserting its influence in the chaos of civil war.

Houthi rebels are at the heart of the civil war. They are Zaidi Shia with a primary power base in north Yemen. The Houthis first launched an insurgency against the government in 2004 and intermittently fought the state until a ceasefire in 2010. With the collapse of Saleh’s regime, however, the Houthis expanded their control over portions of southwestern Yemen. They focused primarily on expanding their power base and countering militant Sunni groups, especially AQAP. But by September 2014, President Hadi had become increasingly irrelevant and the Houthis stepped in to fill the power vacuum. They captured the capital Sana’a that month and Hadi’s government was effectively sidelined. The Houthis seized the presidential palace on January 20 of this year and Hadi resigned two days later. He fled the country in March.

As Houthi rebels began to consolidate power, other groups sought to expand their own base. Forces loyal to Saleh began to vie for power along with continued pressure from AQAP. However, Yemen did not truly descend into full-scale civil war until Saudi Arabia began Operation Decisive Storm on March 25. The offensive launched with tacit U.S. support to weaken the Houthis, force them from power and help reestablish Hadi’s government. The Saudi military operation was supported by eight other predominately Sunni Arab states: Morocco, Sudan, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia provided the bulk of the fighting force, committing 150,000 troops and 100 fighter jets. The primary focus of the operation was an aerial bombardment of Houthi positions, a phase that ended April 21 without any decisive conclusion. The coalition continued its offensive in Yemen the next day, rebranding the military action as Operation Restoring Hope. Although this campaign is ostensibly aimed at beginning a peace process, for all intents and purposes, it’s a continuation of the same military actions.

New alliances

The rise of the Houthis presents a vexing challenge to regional actors involved in Yemeni politics. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia staunchly opposes the Houthis and supports Sunni forces working to reestablish a government led by Hadi. On the other hand, Iran has provided political support for the Houthis, especially after Saudi Arabia’s armed intervention, which is reshaping old regional alliances and setting the basis for a new regional order.

On the most basic level, Sunni authoritarian regimes are the only states that have committed to military action in Yemen. This demonstrates not only the limited makeup of the coalition, but also its reactionary and sectarian makeup. The coalition appears unsustainable in the long run because it is entirely made up of sclerotic, reactionary governments pushing against the tide of history. Even though it has the support of the U.S., it appears to be operating outside the confines of international law. The United Nations did not authorize the coalition to conduct operations in Yemen and therefore the conflict is not legally sanctioned.

On the other side of the conflict are Houthis and their allies. Although Houthis are Zaidi Shia, a group that does not belong to the same branch of Shiism practiced in Iran, it has been receiving increased support from Tehran since Saudi Arabia began operations.

Iran has been increasing its influence and power in the region. It stands at the head of the Shia Crescent, which stretches from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and ends in Iran. It has been the primary beneficiary of what international relations scholar Vali Nasr has termed the “Shia Revival” — the resurgence of Shia Islam and power in the Middle East after the disastrous 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. That invasion eventually led to the establishment of a Shia-dominated Iraqi government that has created stronger links all along the Shia Crescent.

Saudi Arabia has tried to counter Iran by even reaching out to Israel. Although Israel and Saudi Arabia historically have had a frosty relationship and do not have diplomatic relations, both appear to be working in concert against Iran. Recent reports indicate that they have exchanged intelligence on Iran and are working to undermine its nuclear program. Iran appears to be the primary threat to regional order for Saudi Arabia and Israel. Continued uncertainty could help create deeper ties between the two countries.

Old alliances also appear to be shifting. When Saudi Arabia began bombing Yemen, it sought military support from Pakistan, which previously provided such support on multiple occasions, including in 1969, when Pakistani Air Force pilots flew aircraft for the Royal Saudi Air force during its conflict with Yemen. Still, Pakistan did not provide the requested military assistance against the Houthis because of parliamentary opposition. Although Pakistan did make assurances that it would protect the “territorial integrity” of Saudi Arabia, its unwillingness to join the coalition against the Houthis in an offensive war was like a slap in the face of traditional allies. The United Arab Emirates’ Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Mohammed Gargash warned Pakistan that it would pay a “heavy price” for its ambiguous stance on Yemen. But Pakistan’s refusal to join the legally dubious war indicates its shift away from military actions dictated by friendships to one based on the interests and will of its people.

Pakistan’s decision to stay out of the conflict is in line with other nascent democratic Sunni states. Turkey stayed out of the conflict and has instead pushed for a diplomatic resolution. Tunisia also opposed military intervention. Even though these states did not prevent coalition action against the Houthis, it does indicate that newly democratizing Sunni Muslim states may be moving away from the military adventurism of the old guard authoritarian Sunni Muslim states. More importantly, it demonstrates that historic alliances will shift if the interests of traditional allies diverge. This could have a monumental impact if the region continues to democratize and get more representative governments.

A new Middle Eastern order?

With old alliance patterns appearing to shift, sectarian conflict on the rise and Yemen in a dire state of affairs, what will the new Middle Eastern order look like?

States will have to make a choice between perpetual conflict or principled diplomacy. The region has already seen too much war and many problems cannot be solved through military solutions. Although transnational threats from al-Qaida and now Daesh/ISIS may require some sort of military response, other issues like representative government cannot be bombed away.

What is needed now more than ever is a negotiated settlement to the disparate problems in the region, particularly to the Iranian nuclear issue and the crisis in Yemen. This will help pave the way for a more peaceful Middle East.

Leaving aside the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the prospect for peace in the Middle East is contingent upon what occurs with Iran, which is at the center of an increasingly complex web of competing states and actors all with designs for greater regional influence and power. It is the bastion of Shia Islam and continues to chart its own independent foreign policy. It has committed itself to developing a nuclear program and to resolve outstanding issues with the international community through hard-nosed diplomacy.

The central dilemma with Iran’s nuclear program is that it wants to maintain a civilian nuclear enrichment program irrespective of the economic or political costs. Critics allege that the nuclear enrichment program is a cover for a nuclear weapons program. Although Iran has not been fully transparent with its nuclear enrichment program, the last several U.S. National Intelligence Estimates — which contain the consensus view of America’s 16 intelligence agencies — indicate there is no hard evidence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. Iran has been negotiating in good faith with the U.S., Russia, China, France, the U.K. and Germany since 2006 for a comprehensive nuclear agreement. Negotiators reached a historic deal in July based on the 2013 Geneva agreement, a move that’s a win for principled diplomacy and a positive step forward for the Middle East.

But the nuclear weapons issue has become more urgent. Saudi Arabia opposes the negotiation with Iran and puts little faith in the allegedly peaceful intentions of its nuclear program, and is therefore considering developing its own nuclear program. After Pakistan declined to take part in military action against the Houthis, Saudi Arabia is no longer confident that it could turn to Pakistan for nuclear help. Even though Saudi Arabia financed much of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, there is no guarantee that Pakistan would provide the technical skills — or nuclear weapon(s) — to the Kingdom, especially after receiving harsh international criticism for Abdul Qadeer Khan’s nuclear proliferation activity. But if Saudi Arabia decided to develop nuclear weapons, this could set off a regional nuclear arms race.

Another chronic issue that remains unresolved is growing sectarian violence, which has deep historical roots inflamed by states in the region and beyond. After the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, radical Islamists received funding and support from different actors. Iranians exported Shia revivalism and built alliances with groups across the Shia Crescent, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia promoted puritanical Wahhabi Islam and funneled preachers, fighters and money to Afghanistan to fight the Soviet invasion. Saudi Arabia also joined hands with Pakistan and the United States to help the mujahedeen wage war against the Soviets. Eventually the interests of these states shifted, with Iran growing less interested in exporting revolution and more focused on development, while Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the U.S. focused on other issues. But the radical ideologies that had been promoted in the past continue to grow and expand, and have manifested themselves in increasingly violent ways across the Greater Middle East.

Although it would be too simplistic to read the conflict in Yemen purely in sectarian terms, there is no doubt that there is a sectarian element to the violence. Part of the country has come increasingly under that sway of al-Qaida and other radical Islamist fighters. Another part of the country is controlled by the Zaidi Shia Houthis who have an alliance with former President Saleh. Then there is the Wahhabi Saudi Arabian-led coalition that is waging war to reinstall Hadi’s regime.

Irrespective of which faction eventually gains control of Yemen, the ultimate losers are the Yemeni people. The Saudi-led coalition has already cost the lives of 5,400 people. At least 1.5 million people have been forced to flee their homes and the United Nations says that 21 million people need immediate help. Though intermittent peace talks have been underway in Geneva, Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners continue to wage war with no timeline for a cessation.

The new Middle Eastern order has the potential to go any number of ways. The ideal solution is an increase in principled diplomacy with a focus on the Iranian nuclear issue and ending hostilities in Yemen. From a realist perspective, states will continue to take actions that will advance their interests even if it costs regional stability. However, perhaps the democratic yearnings of people across the region may yet lead states to refocus and rebalance domestic and foreign policies. Regardless of which way the tide eventually turns, there can be no doubt that the new Middle Eastern order will look radically different.

TIM Summer 2015 Cover thumb
This article originally appeared in the Spring/Summer 2015 print issue of The Islamic Monthly.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nausherwan Hafeez (nausherwan.hafeez@gmail.com) writes about politics, international relations and security issues. He has Master's degrees from the University of Chicago and Johns Hopkins University. He is completing a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Florida. @NaushHafeez

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

Hummm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/11/iran-was-building-a-nuclear-bomb-so-what/

Iran Was Building a Nuclear Bomb. So What?

What “closing the file” on Tehran’s nuclear weapons program really means.

By Jeffrey Lewis
December 11, 2015

The Iran nuclear deal is nearing another mile marker, this one relating to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s investigation of Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear weapons program.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached in Vienna — or, as I like to call it, Der Wienerplan — requires Iran to implement the steps outlined in a road map negotiated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It also requires that the IAEA provide, by Dec. 15, a “final assessment on the resolution of all past and present outstanding issues” and the IAEA Board of Governors to submit a resolution “with a view to closing the issue.” In short, the terms of the deal require the IAEA to reach a conclusion on the allegations that Iran had a nuclear weapons program.

The IAEA director-general submitted his “Final Assessment on Past and Present Outstanding Issues regarding Iran’s Nuclear Programme” on Dec. 2. And now, a draft resolution by the Board of Governors to close the issue — dated Dec. 7 — has been circulated and leaked to my friend Andreas Persbo. (He placed it online at some disreputable blog that traffics in such leaks.) The resolution will likely pass in the next few days, moving the parties closer to an “implementation day” as early as January, at which point the United States, the European Union, and Iran must implement the bulk of their obligations.

Of course, the steady implementation of the deal is being met with the same opposition as every other step of the process. Some people hate the very idea of a diplomatic resolution of the nuclear standoff with Iran — though they will insist it is only this very specific deal to which they object — and they hate each and every step along the implementation path with the same passion. They’d probably tell you that Dec. 7 is a day that will live in infamy if that weren’t, like, already taken.

Others, too, are unhappy. My friends at the Institute for Science and International Security (aka The Good ISIS), though officially neutral on the merits of Der Wienerplan, are crying in their coffee over the draft resolution. Here is wishing them a speedy transition into the final phase of the grieving process: acceptance. The “Possible Military Dimensions” file is closed.

Closure of the file, however, has not brought emotional closure. Iran didn’t confess to a pre-2003 weapons program, though the evidence assembled by the IAEA should convince all but the most hardened Internet troll that Iran was working to build a bomb before 2003. Not that Tehran would ever confess such a thing. As I have argued before, a confession wouldn’t have improved the IAEA’s understanding of Iran’s past efforts to build a bomb, but it would have been used by those who wanted to undermine the agreement. I call this the cookie problem: “Drawing attention to something unwelcome often overwhelms any credit you get for taking steps to address that problem. Even if other people are objectively better off, you will only suffer for bringing it up.”

As a result, sovereign states rarely submit to a ritual humiliation, which is why South Korea and others haven’t acknowledged the nuclear weapons program behind their safeguards violations. The IAEA isn’t the Scooby Doo Gang and Iran’s supreme leader was never going to say: “And I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren’t for you meddling kids.” That only happens on children’s television. Life as a grown-up is rather less satisfying.

The final IAEA report does, however, deliver a verdict — and it is damning. While noting Iran’s denial of a “coordinated programme aimed at the development of a nuclear explosive device,” it makes no bones about what it thinks was actually going on. “[A] range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device,” the IAEA found, “were conducted in Iran prior to the end of 2003 as a coordinated effort.”

Apart from the passive voice, that is a straightforward assertion that Iran attempted to build a nuclear weapon prior to 2003.

In the main, the IAEA confirmed U.S. intelligence estimates that Iran had a covert nuclear weapons program until 2003 — as well as reports that only limited work continued until 2009. I summarized the unclassified estimates in one of my first articles for Foreign Policy in response to questions about the post-2003 work.

The scope of the IAEA’s report is also pretty damning, by the way. It describes Iran’s program management structure; procurement efforts; efforts to acquire unsafeguarded nuclear material, cast uranium metal, develop detonators, test high explosives, conduct hydrodynamic experiments, model nuclear explosions, and develop a neutron initiator; plans for a nuclear test site; steps to integrate a bomb into a missile; and work on its arming-firing-fusing system. Some of my colleagues claim that Iran must have done more, but honestly, that’s basically the complete starter kit for a nuclear weapons program. Unless they were building a hydrogen bomb, too, there isn’t much more for them to have done.

Iran doesn’t have to confess for the IAEA to have gotten to the bottom of its nuclear weapons program, any more than a criminal needs to confess to be convicted. Closing the file doesn’t give Iran a clean bill of health or remove prior offenses; it allows the parties to move toward implementing the terms of the nuclear deal, which imposes limits on Iran’s nuclear program and provides additional transparency.

Part of the problem may be the term “close the file,” which is a colloquial phrase often used by states that have violated their safeguards and want to move on. But let’s take a moment to ponder what it means to have opened the file.

The standoff with Iran began with the revelation that Iran was constructing an underground enrichment facility near Natanz. Although Iran, under the terms of the then-existing safeguards agreement and subsidiary arrangements, was not yet obligated to declare the facility, the circumstances surrounding its construction strongly suggested that Iran never intended to declare it. This resulted in a number of IAEA activities to determine the completeness and correctness of its safeguards declarations. The first milestone was a finding by the IAEA director-general, at the time Mohamed ElBaradei, that Iran had violated its safeguards obligations and that efforts to verify completeness and correctness were ongoing. Colloquially, one might call this the “opening” of the file.

As the IAEA worked with Iran, the director-general released regular reports to the Board of Governors on the “implementation of safeguards” in Iran. Unlike with other states that have violated their safeguards agreements, such as South Korea, Egypt, and Taiwan, the IAEA didn’t like the answers it was getting from Tehran. The IAEA was able to resolve one measly issue before the Board of Governors referred the metaphorical file, in 2006, to the United Nations Security Council. The file moved from the Vienna International Centre, where the IAEA is headquartered, to Turtle Bay.

The Security Council subsequently demanded that Iran cease enrichment-related activities (among other activities) and imposed sanctions in a series of resolutions: UNSCR 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929. It was these sanctions that eventually brought Iran to the negotiating table. And it is the Security Council on whose behalf the E3/EU+3 (or P5+1) countries were negotiating to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for concessions by Tehran pursuant to the terms of the JCPOA.

So, what does it mean to “close the file”? Well, first, let’s be clear about what that does not mean.

First, it does not mean that the matter is out of the U.N.’s hands. U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA, states that the Security Council “Decides to remain seized of the matter,” which is the grandiloquent language for saying it’s still the Security Council’s bag. If Iran does not comply with the terms of the JCPOA, the Security Council is the ultimate arbiter of any dispute and is where the so-called “snap-back” procedure to reimpose sanctions would play out.

Second, closing the file does not mean that Iran is no longer subject to unusual scrutiny by the IAEA. Quite the opposite, the IAEA is charged with verifying Iran’s compliance with the terms of the JCPOA and to this end has, under the terms of the agreement, extraordinary access to Iran’s nuclear program that extends beyond the access provided for under a routine safeguards agreement and the more extensive “additional protocol” safeguards that Iran must implement. The JCPOA provides for enhanced safeguards that extend into centrifuge workshops and uranium mills, as well as a number of prohibitions on activities linked to weaponization. And the IAEA will have a team of 130 to 150 designated inspectors for Iran, at a cost of about 9 million euros a year. The IAEA is not packing up and going home. It is moving in. Oh, and the IAEA director-general will continue to provide quarterly reports on Iran’s implementation of the terms of the JCPOA. So, you’ll have another column to read over Spring Break.

And finally, closing the file does not mean that the IAEA is prohibited from investigating any new information about misdeeds in Iran, past or present, relating to its safeguards agreement or weaponization activities.

What closing the file does mean is that the IAEA has reached final judgments about the list of activities that constituted “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear program. The IAEA remains, however, charged with reaching a “Broader Conclusion that all nuclear material in Iran remains in peaceful activities.” The last remaining sanctions will not be removed until the IAEA reaches this conclusion — or for eight years after adoption day.

The IAEA is unlikely to reach this conclusion anytime soon, if it ever does. This means the next eight years should be interesting, particularly as the deadline to lift remaining sanctions even without an IAEA “broader conclusion” approaches. The eight-year thing is a strange provision, I will admit, though perhaps not as strange as the rider allowing the Wu-Tang Clan and/or Bill Murray to plan one heist or caper to steal back from Martin Shkreli the only copy of Once Upon a Time in Shaolin. (Seriously, why isn’t that in Der Wienerplan? I know the story isn’t true, but come on — the idea of RZA, GZA, and Bill Murray trying to make off with an IR-8 centrifuge could surely bring a smile to the tear-stricken faces of our friends at The Good ISIS.)

The eight-year provision is a compromise — Iran was concerned that the IAEA would drag out the process indefinitely, while the other parties, principally the United States, France, Britain, and Germany, rightly concluded that Iran’s cooperation is likely to be grudging. If the IAEA can’t reach the broader conclusion that all of Iran’s nuclear material remains in peaceful uses after eight years, the United States and its allies will have a tough decision to make.

But tough decisions are what happens when your other options are things like “an Iranian bomb” or “bombing Iran.” The reason that we have a diplomatic agreement with Iran is not because they are Boy Scouts, but rather the opposite: We know Iran violated its safeguards agreement. We know Iran had a bomb program. We know Iran is still lying about that to this very day. The IAEA report makes that clear. If Iran weren’t a threat when it comes to building a nuclear weapon, the Security Council wouldn’t have imposed sanctions, the U.S. State Department wouldn’t have been renting hotel rooms in Lausanne and Vienna, and we wouldn’t have limits on Iran’s nuclear program and the extraordinary access for the IAEA that goes beyond the Additional Protocol. In other words, if Iran were run by Boy Scouts, we wouldn’t have any need for a nuclear deal in the first place.

____________

(Also see...

Sorry, Fareed: Saudi Arabia Can Build a Bomb Any Damn Time It Wants To

Why do we think it’s so hard for a non-European country to acquire a 70-year-old technology?

By Jeffrey Lewis
June 12, 2015

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/12...a-can-build-a-bomb-any-damn-time-it-wants-to/)

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151212/as-afghanistan-f86e93541e.html

Taliban attack near Spanish embassy in Afghanistan kills 7

Dec 12, 7:12 AM (ET)

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — At least seven people have been killed in a Taliban attack near the Spanish embassy in the capital, Kabul, the government said.

Sediq Sediqqi, spokesman for the Afghan Interior Ministry, said on Saturday that four Afghan police officers and two others, including a foreigner, were killed in the attack. The Spanish Interior Ministry later announced that a Spanish policeman had been killed and a second Spanish officer had later died from injuries sustained in the battle, bringing the total death toll up to seven.

Seven civilians and two policemen were wounded, Sediqqi said. Twelve foreign citizens were rescued by Afghan forces during the operation, he added.

Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesman for the Taliban, claimed responsibility for the attack in an email sent to media outlets.

The attack took place in the Kabul district of Shir Pur, which is home to many foreign embassies, guesthouses and the homes of high-ranking government officials. It took local security forces more than 10 hours to bring the area back under control.

The Kabul attack came two days after another massive Taliban attack on the main airport in the southern city of Kandahar, which lasted more than 24 hours and killed more than 50 people. The casualties from the Kandahar attack, which ended Wednesday night, included 38 civilians, 10 Afghan soldiers and two police officers, according to the Ministry of Defense.

Separately a district chief was shot and killed by insurgents in the northern province of northern Baghlan, said Jawed Basharat, spokesman for the provincial police chief.

Abdul Jabar, district chief for the Borka district, came under attack on the main road near Puli Khumri, the provincial capital. Basharat said that Jabar's driver and two of his bodyguards were abducted by the insurgents and police forces were searching for the missing men.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the killing of Jabar, but Taliban militants have increased their attacks recently on Afghan government officials and security forces.

---

Associated Press writers Cristina Fuentes and Harold Heckle in Madrid contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151211/lt--colombia-rebels-abortions-1b004fd59b.html

Colombian prosecutor accuses rebels of 150 forced abortions

Dec 11, 4:09 PM (ET)

BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — Colombia's chief prosecutor says his office has documented more than 150 forced abortions carried out by the country's main rebel force. And he says the number could rise.

Eduardo Montealegre says evidence indicates that "forced abortion was a policy of the FARC," referring to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. He says it was usually forced on female guerrillas so they would not be lost as combatants.

The comment to reporters late Thursday comes as the government is nearing the conclusion of talks with the FARC aimed at ending a half century of guerrilla conflict. A key element of the proposed deal is how rebel and government forces will be punished for human rights violations and other crimes.

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-burundi-violence-20151212-story.html

Burundi army: 87 people killed in violence

By Tribune wire reports•Contact Reporter
December 12, 2015, 10:16 AM |BUJUMBURA, Burundi

A Burundian army official in says 87 people were killed in violence Friday when three military installations were attacked by armed men.

Army spokesman Col. Gaspard Baratuza said Saturday eight security officers were among those killed and 21 others wounded in the fighting. Baratuza said forces arrested 45 members of the unidentified group that attacked the military installations.

Residents of Burundi's capital said that security forces searched houses and dragged out some people and shot them, some with their hands tied behind their backs.

Some residents ventured out of their houses Saturday but largely remained uneasily in their neighborhoods.

"I fear I can be killed like my friend yesterday, police came to search our house and by chance I escaped. If I had money, I would go buy a passport and flee," said Fidele Muyobera, 22, who works as household help.

"What is the international community waiting for? Will they intervene when there are no more people in Burundi?" asked businessman Gerald Bigirimana in Nyakabiga while pointing at one of the bodies lying on the streets.

The body of a 14-year-old boy was found in the Jabe neighborhood, the witness said. James Ntunzwenimana was shot dead while going to buy sugar, the witness said who spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared for his safety.

Six more bodies were found in Musaga, where the military said their installation was attacked, though residents said more bodies had been taken away by security forces.

The United States said it is "deeply alarmed" by the violence in Bujumbura, said a statement released by John Kirby, a State Department spokesman. The U.S. called on neighboring countries to start urgent negotiations between Burundi's government and the opposition to defuse the situation.

The U.N. Security Council late Friday strongly condemned the violence, and U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power said the council should look at "how the international community can protect civilians from mass violence, including for the possible deployment of a regionally led peace support operation."

The violence is linked to President Pierre Nkurunziza's third term in office, which many Burundians and foreign observers had opposed as unconstitutional and in violation of a peace accord. The treaty ended a civil war in which 300,000 people were killed between 1993 and 2006.

At least 240 people have been killed since April and about 215,000 others have fled to neighboring countries, according to the United Nations. Several hundred people have also been imprisoned for opposing Nkurunziza's re-election in July this year.

Associated Press

Copyright © 2015, Chicago Tribune

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

A US general just gave a stark assessment of the situation in Eastern Europe
Started by Safecastleý, Yesterday 03:21 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...assessment-of-the-situation-in-Eastern-Europe

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2015/12/11/war-in-europe-why-the-army-is-worried/

Dec 11, 2015 @ 11:48 AM 2,982 views

War In Europe: Why The Army Is Worried

Loren Thompson, Contributor

I write about national security, especially its business dimensions.

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and seized control of Crimea, Pentagon planners have been trying to figure out how they could cope with further land grabs by Moscow. Their greatest concern is that Russia will move on the three small Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — the only former provinces of the Soviet Union that have joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and that other alliance members are therefore obligated to defend. Internal Pentagon estimates suggest Russia’s military could occupy the Baltic states in 2-3 days — well before NATO could organize a coherent response.

More generally, the alliance’s entire eastern flank is vulnerable to invasion given the proximity of Russian forces and the absence of natural barriers to a quick advance (see map). In the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, Western military planners no longer think they can predict how Russian leader Vladimir Putin might react to perceived provocations or opportunities. So the possibility of war in Europe is back on the table as a priority concern, and that means land warfare in which the U.S. Army would have to carry most of the burden.

After talking to a number of senior military officials over the past year, the picture I get is that the U.S. Army isn’t postured to stop a quick Russian thrust westward. In certain circumstances, Putin could defeat NATO forces and upset the fragile European political order put in place after the collapse of the Soviet Union. That outcome would depend on the conditions in which such a campaign unfolds, and there are dozens of factors potentially influencing the course of events. But here are the issues that come up most frequently in discussions with the Army.

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/lorenthompson/files/2015/12/Europe_countries_map_en_2.png

Preparation for high-end threats has been neglected. Fifteen years of fighting counter-insurgency warfare in Southwest Asia has left the Army well equipped to take down irregular forces such as ISIS, but much less ready to fight an enemy armed with tanks, artillery and attack aircraft. The number of brigade combat teams in the active-duty force has fallen from 45 to 32, and only a quarter of those are the kind of heavy armored formations that could repulse a Russian mechanized advance. The active-duty force has also lost a quarter of its helicopters, with only modest investments being made to upgrade existing fleets or field new capabilities. To make matters worse, the number of Army units stationed in Europe has been reduced to only two light brigades — a small fraction of what would be needed to deal with a major Russian advance.

Russia would enjoy huge geographical advantages in a war. Russia historically has been a land power, and the vast preponderance of its military capabilities are deployed in Europe. It routinely conducts military exercises near the eastern borders of Estonia, Ukraine, and other nearby states it might invade. U.S. military forces are located far from where the military action might start, and would have great difficulty responding rapidly to a Russian invasion that began with no warning. Given the scale of conventional forces in western Russia that could quickly be brought into action, Moscow might be able to present the West with a fait accompli in places like Ukraine — especially given the internal wrangling that would precede any NATO response. Moscow would probably time its moves to take advantage of the fact that most U.S. ground forces now rotate in and out of the area rather than being permanently based there.

Air support might not be available. The Army trains to fight on the assumption that it will have continuous support from the U.S. Air Force and other allied aircraft. However, Russian air defenses in Eastern Europe are so imposing that Army planners aren’t sure Western aircraft will be able to operate in support of ground forces. Russian surface-to-air missiles such as the mobile SA-21 (over 150 launchers currently deployed) can reach into the air space of friendly countries to shoot down any aircraft that aren’t stealthy or supported by sophisticated jamming techniques. For instance, most of Polish air space is potentially within range of Russian air defenses. U.S. military planners don’t think the Russians could establish air dominance, but they could achieve sporadic air control sufficient to exclude all Western tactical air forces except for very stealthy fifth-generation fighters, leaving U.S. ground forces exposed.

Russian conventional weapons are increasingly capable. Air defense is not the only mission area where NATO forces might be at a disadvantage. As the Russian military has become increasingly professionalized, it has introduced an array of advanced conventional weapons while America and its allies have under-invested in new technology. Army officials say the Russians might outgun U.S. forces locally in long-range fires, electronic warfare, cyber skills and the ability to practice mixed regular/irregular tactics known as “hybrid warfare.” Russian antitank weapons are also said to pose a serious threat to U.S. armored vehicles, in part because the Army has failed to move ahead with plans to equip its existing fleet with active-protection systems that deflect the force of incoming rounds. With the exception of the Stryker SYK +0.00% wheeled troop carrier, most of the Army’s recent efforts to field more agile, survivable vehicles have faltered.

Moscow might be willing to use nuclear weapons. The Russians enjoy massive local superiority in tactical nuclear weapons, and Moscow’s military doctrine gives such weapons more prominence in warfighting plans than Western thinking does. President Putin said earlier this year that he considered putting Russian nuclear forces on alert during the Ukraine crisis in 2014 to deter Western intervention. Moscow’s military appears to view first use of nuclear weapons as a legitimate response to conventional threats endangering the Russian homeland, so NATO military planners have to at least consider the possibility that what starts out as a war over Russian land-grabs in the Baltic region or Ukraine escalates into a nuclear exchange as the campaign progresses. Once that threshold is breached, there is no way of knowing where it might lead, and the U.S. Army has no clear idea how to respond if and when.

Surveying the decay in NATO capabilities for dealing with a Russian onslaught, my Lexington Institute colleague Daniel Goure recently argued, “The U.S. Army needs to redeploy multiple armored combat brigades, additional Patriot air defense battalions, attack helicopter units and advanced sensors to Europe.” In other words, it needs to reverse the drawdown of U.S. ground forces in Europe that began when the Cold War ended and is currently enshrined in President Obama’s 2012 Strategic Planning Guidance. I think Dr. Goure is right, because having a robust force permanently stationed in Europe would both deter aggression and give the U.S. a quick response if deterrence failed. For all the money NATO spends on its collective defense, it doesn’t appear ready to cope with a Russian attack westward, and nobody knows what Putin might do if he thinks Washington is distracted elsewhere.

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/artic...ash_builds_against_saudi_salafism_111620.html

December 12, 2015

A Backlash Builds Against Saudi Salafism

By David Andrew Weinberg
Comments 1

The recent terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino have once again put Saudi Arabia's brand of Salafi Islam, known as Wahhabism, under the microscope. In both Europe and the United States, some observers are blaming Riyadh's austere religious tradition and state-funded proselytization for spreading an ideology that they believe inspired 9/11 and may have encouraged the more recent attacks.

Speaking with Berlin's Bild newspaper on Sunday, German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called Saudi Arabia an important diplomatic partner but raised concern that "from Saudi Arabia, Wahhabi mosques are financed throughout the world," warning "we must make it clear to the Saudis that the time of looking the other way is over."

Several of the Islamic State group's Paris gunmen grew up or spent time in Belgium's Molenbeek, a neighborhood described by the Guardian as "Europe's jihadi central" that has also been linked to several other attacks. Some observers have sought to draw a line connecting those attackers and Saudi-inspired Salafism.

The Paris cell's mastermind, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, grew up in Molenbeek as the child of Moroccan immigrants. According to a local think tank analyst cited by the Washington Post, starting in the 1970s "Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries sent funding for rigid religious schools, setting up tension between Wahhabi mosques and the more moderate and largely Moroccan tradition."

The Grand Mosque of Brussels, considered "the largest and most influential mosque in the capital of the European Union," was gifted to Saudi Arabia's King Faisal in 1967. According to Politico Europe, the mosque's cultural center "encouraged clerics from the 1980s onwards to shift to fundamentalist Salafist teachings, including the placement of over 600 salafist teachers into schools." Belgian MP and former Doctors without Borders official Georges Dallemagne also points to this influence, arguing that "the very strong influence of Salafists... is one of the particularities that puts Belgium at the center of terrorism in Europe today."

One month after the Charlie Hebdo attacks, Radio France Internationale reported that the French government was exploring new legislation to block foreign funding of mosques "from countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia" as part of "a cultural offensive against Salafist movements." Since last month's Paris attacks, several French mosques have been closed down, and one of France's senior imams told Al Jazeera that the interior ministry intended to shut down between 100 and 160 more due to takfiri messaging, preaching hatred, or operating without a license.

French police also reportedly searched the homes of two imams who work at the Geneva Mosque, the largest in Switzerland. The mosque was inaugurated in 1978 by Saudi Arabia's King Khalid, and the foundation that runs it today still "has close ties to Saudi Arabia" according to the Swiss public broadcasting organization's SwissInfo.

Meanwhile, in Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives have been under attack by the political opposition for maintaining cozy ties with Riyadh. On Thursday, former longtime mayor of London Ken Livingstone even went so far as to argue that "almost all Muslim fundamentalism has been funded by the Saudis and the Qataris, going back 70 years, spreading a particularly hate-filled Wahabi strand of Islam."

Even in tiny Iceland, the country's president has come out against the donation of $1 million from Saudi Arabia to a Rejkjavik mosque project. He knew about the donation in March but only took a position against it since the killings in Paris.

A similar script seems to be playing out following the ISIS-inspired terrorist attacks in San Bernardino, California. Initially, several news outlets erroneously reported that one of the attackers was from Qatar, the only country other than Saudi Arabia where Wahhabism is the leading religious tradition.

Reuters revealed that one of actual attackers, Tashfeen Malik, spent time in Saudi Arabia, where her father became "conservative and hardline," according to a relative. Although she returned to her native Pakistan for university, the Washington Post reported that a friend said Malik "lost interest in her studies" and "would travel across town, nearly every day, to a madrassa ... that she thinks ... belongs to the Wahhabi branch of Sunni Islam." A faculty member at her university reflected "I would call Tashfeen a Saudi girl" who "had just come to Pakistan for her degree." Saudi sources have downplayed the length and significance of her time in the kingdom, and her brother says Saudi authorities have now warned her family there not to speak to the press.

Writing in the New York Times on Tuesday, President Obama's former Special Representative to Muslim Communities Farah Pandith commented that she had traveled to 80 countries in this position and that "in each place I visited, the Wahhabi influence was an insidious presence" funded by "Saudi money."

It would be unrealistic, let alone unfair, to urge Saudi Arabia to abandon its most basic religious beliefs. However, there should be no justification -- under any religious tradition -- for words of religious incitement that dehumanize the other and erode the dividing line between religious piety and acts of violence.

Western countries must to encourage Saudi Arabia to finally remove intolerant passages from state-published textbooks, stop granting state privileges to well-known preachers of intolerance, and to release political prisoners such as Raif Badawi and Mikhlif al-Shammari whose only crime has been to call for religious pluralism and moderation.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia must also make a more serious contribution to airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, where Riyadh's role has dwindled to almost nothing since 2014. The Saudis should be expected to carry out or subsidize coalition airstrikes against ISIS with the same fervor that they used to spread Salafism beyond their borders.

David Andrew Weinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2015/12/11/cleaning_up_the_mess_in_latin_america_111617.html

0 Comments

December 11, 2015

Cleaning Up the Mess in Latin America

By Danilo Arbilla

This article first appeared in El Espectador

BOGOTÁ - The recent triumph of the Venezuelan opposition in parliamentary elections was good news. Better still was the voting public's resounding rebuke of the ruling system and the likes of President Nicolás Maduro, parliamentary Speaker Diosdado Cabello - a man of highly dubious reputation - and Tibisay Lucena, a loyalist appointed head of the electoral authority.

Other news that has received less attention is the continued drop in the price of Venezuelan crude, which fell last week to just over $34 a barrel. But these two bits of news are related.

You can blame Maduro for many things, but perhaps his worst feat was prompting nostalgia for his predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez, through his own mismanagement skills that have led to the country's deterioration. Not that Chavez was really any better. He wouldn't have gotten much farther than Maduro with current oil prices, and without oil prices having hovered around $120 to $130 a barrel during his time in office.

With that much cash, you can buy almost anything, even charisma. You can buy arms and warships from Spain and the United States, negotiate favorable business terms for companies with the friendly Lula government in Brazil, sign big deals with China, Iran and Russia - whose scope and consequences have yet to be fully revealed - provide cheap oil to needy Central American states or pick up the tab for dysfunctional companies, from Costa Rica to Uruguay.

At $38 a barrel, Chávez and Maduro would likely be in the same predicament. So the terrible legacy Venezuelans face today is bequeathed by two presidents, not one, and a system they installed. That system remains in power, even after the recent election defeat.

The opposition now has an arduous path ahead and must remain united in order to progress. Chavismo is not overcome, only badly injured. It is ensconced in its power den, sharpening its claws. In this setting, the opposition must maintain the unity that brought it to victory.

Hanging on

Generally, the populist and authoritarian regimes that call themselves progressive are loathe to leave power. That's in keeping with their doctrine, but also because they fear returning to the bottom of the heap or being held to account.

The conduct of outgoing Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is a perfect example. To begin with, she has thwarted the transition of the incoming government, denying it critical administrative information. Incoming President Mauricio Macri doesn't know what he'll find once he takes office. And in recent weeks, Kirchner has rushed to appoint some 20 ambassadors and hundreds of civil servants, and run up debts the new government must pay in coming months. She even refused to participate in the traditional handover ceremony in the presidential palace.

It is an almost ridiculous attitude that may corroborate popular hearsay about Kirchner's mental health. Meanwhile, her supporters are urging resistance, seeking a remedy for their falling numbers in zealotry.

Like her ideological peers in the region, Kirchner is finding it hard to step down. This lot won't leave before they have trashed the place! And that, after years of failing to make good use of the enormous revenues from a unique period of high demand for their export commodities. They could have invested the money - instead of spending it to win political votes, feed their egos and finance extravagant social programs with eminently electoral motives. Expect also an increasing number of revelations about leaders, senior politicians, their partisans and relatives personally enriching themselves.

The pseudo-progressive ideology is on its way out because the cash ran dry and people are exasperated. But make no mistake, they are not giving up. They will bide their time, hoping people have short memories and will be disoriented by their day-to-day problems. And then, right on time, they will resume their perennial discourse of bombast and bleeding hearts.

Reprinted with permission from Worldcrunch

dash8200 · Dec 12, 2015

Thanks for the postings.

Housecarl · Dec 12, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/friday-11-december-2015

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Hour One
Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Caitlin Webber, Bloomberg Intelligence, in re: Imagine ban on Muslims: How different would America be? - CNN.com If a Donald Trump-like ban on Muslims had existed in the past, what cultural ... to the United States, but tourists and students seeking temporary visas. ... The Islamic Circle of North America celebrated the announcement,
Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Liz Peek, The Fiscal Times, in re: Liz Peek, in re: Don’t look now, but Marco Rubio is taking down Obamacare. Unhappily for him, the process by which the GOP presidential candidate is undermining the healthcare law does not lend itself to soundbites and easy campaign slogans. But, the damage Rubio is inflicting on President Obama’s program is nonetheless severe – possibly fatal.

Republican backers for some time have griped that Congress has failed to do away with the unpopular program. Efforts to defund Obamacare and numerous votes to repeal it have come up short. What Rubio is doing, though, exposes the underlying flaws in the healthcare program. At the end of the day, Obamacare was sold to Americans as a way to “bend the cost curve” on spiraling healthcare costs, rather than as the giant entitlement program it actually is. Related: Obamacare Is Now on Life Support

Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: John Tamny, RealClearMarkets, in re: U.C. Davis professor Eric Rauchway's history of the Great Depression is remarkable for its gullibility, lack of nuance, and total worship of an economist (John Maynard Keynes) whom he plainly doesn't understand. Rauchway's omissions about the 1920s and '30s reveal him as either very dishonest, or as a very lousy historian. Book Review: How the Very Gullible Describe the New Deal In 1920 and 1921, the U.S. economy contracted. The recession was massive; far greater than the contraction that revealed itself from 1929-30. Most, however, are unaware of the downturn that took...

Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Harry Siegel, New York Daily News, in re: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/harry-siegel-trouble-trump-haters-article-1.2460763 So, we agree that Donald Trump is a bad guy: a racist, fear-pushing confidence man. Now, let’s talk about what Trump is not: an agent of ISIS. The second coming of Joe McCarthy. Or the next Republican presidential nominee, let alone the next American President. His supporters are scared for a lot of reasons, many of them ugly. But to write them off as irredeemable haters and suckers would be a huge mistake, adding to the fears and frustrations his campaign is already feeding on.

Hour Two
Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Tyler Rogoway, Foxtrot Alpha, in re: Here's Russia's S-400 Missile System in Action, and How the U.S. Would Deal with It ; Here's the First Video of the Navy's New Zumwalt-Class Destroyer Cruising Through Open Sea ; This Head-Cam Video of an F-16 Pilot Streaking Around the Sky Is Exhilarating ; Russia Launches Cruise Missiles at Syria From Submarine in the Mediterranean ; One of These Will Be the Next U.S. Marines Amphibious Combat Vehicle (1 of 2)

Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Tyler Rogoway, Foxtrot Alpha, in re: Here's Russia's S-400 Missile System in Action, and How the U.S. Would Deal with It ; Here's the First Video of the Navy's New Zumwalt-Class Destroyer Cruising Through Open Sea ; This Head-Cam Video of an F-16 Pilot Streaking Around the Sky Is Exhilarating ; Russia Launches Cruise Missiles at Syria From Submarine in the Mediterranean ; One of These Will Be the Next U.S. Marines Amphibious Combat Vehicle (2 of 2)

Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Mike Giglio, Buzzfeed News, in re: The Syrian YPG will work with Arab groups who'll be junior partners. . . . I was embedded with the Peshmerga; other Kurdish groups were fighting with them and it was a question of who got credit. When the y did finally take Sinjar I was there in an hour and walked around; met up with the PKK, who said they'd been in the front lines and had taken heavy losses. KRG are uncomfortable with the others' having moved in to their turf – an uneasy alliance. ; Air raids credited for Kurds' Sinjar success - Al Jazeera ... - Kurdish Peshmerga fighters who have captured the Iraqi town of Sinjar from ISIL say US-led coalition air strikes were crucial to their success. ; Kurdish fighters take control of Iraq's Sinjar - Al Jazeera ... Kurdish Peshmerga forces have entered the centre of Sinjar after pushing out Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) fighters from the ... ; 'Tyranny has gone': Kurds and Yazidis celebrate recapture ... The white battle truck roared through the rubble-strewn centre of Sinjar, its improvised armour scraping against the asphalt, bomb-laden dru . . .

Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Nicholas Wade, New York Times, in re: Grave of ‘Griffin Warrior’ at Pylos Could Be a Gateway to Civilizations A warrior’s tomb full of precious metals and jewels is expected to give insight into the rise of the Mycenaeans, from whom Greek culture developed.

Hour Three
Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Michael E Vlahos, Johns Hopkins, in re: American Boots on the Ground in Syria - National Review ... The War against ISIS Escalates: American Boots on the Ground in Syria ... However, while I believe the Iraq war resolution still empowers ...; Killing ISIS: Five Reasons American 'Boots on the Ground ... The U.S. ground presence in Iraq, which began with the commitment of a mere 300 advisors in June of 2014, has increased to over 3,500 and a . . . (1 of 2)

Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Michael E Vlahos, Johns Hopkins, in re: American Boots on the Ground in Syria - National Review ... The War against ISIS Escalates: American Boots on the Ground in Syria ... However, while I believe the Iraq war resolution still empowers ...; Killing ISIS: Five Reasons American 'Boots on the Ground ... The U.S. ground presence in Iraq, which began with the commitment of a mere 300 advisors in June of 2014, has increased to over 3,500 and a . . . (2 of 2)

Friday 11 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Ann Marlowe, Hudson Institute, in re: https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/12/10/tensions-in-sabratha-over-arrests-said-to-be-linked-to-is/

For audio please go to the site.....

Housecarl · Dec 13, 2015

dash8200 said:
Thanks for the postings.

You're welcome.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151213/eu--europe-migrants-the_latest-d4002bd1f0.html

The Latest: Hungary leader: EU a battlefield due to migrants

Dec 13, 12:09 PM (ET)

(AP) Refugees from Afghanistan make their way out of the sea, as their boat, on which...
Full Image

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — The latest developments as tens of thousands of people make their way to Europe and across the continent, seeking safety and a better life. All times local.

6:05 p.m.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban lashed out at EU leaders who reject his call to keep migrants out of the bloc, which he described as "weak, unsure and powerless."

Orban told delegates at the ruling party Fidesz' congress on Sunday that the "continent looks like a battlefield and the worse is yet to come. How many more will hit the road, heading for Europe? I believe it's millions, or tens of millions."

Hundreds of thousands of people fleeing war and poverty have arrived in Europe this year. Hungary erected a fence at its border with Serbia, and since September has effectively shut its doors to new arrivals.

On Sunday, Orban was re-elected as president of Fidesz with a landslide victory: out of 1,177 party delegates, 1,174 voted him as president again.

Housecarl · Dec 13, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151213/eu-libya-4562d6bdd4.html

Libyans urged to accept cease-fire, embrace UN unity plan

Dec 13, 1:13 PM (ET)
By MATTHEW LEE

(AP) US Secretary of State John Kerry meets the press at the end of a conference on Libya...
Full Image

ROME (AP) — Diplomats trying to help Libya emerge from the chaos that terrorists have exploited said Sunday that rival political factions in the North African country need to accept an immediate cease-fire and embrace a U.N.-brokered plan aimed at creating a "secure, democratic, prosperous and unified state."

"We refuse to stand by and watch a vacuum filled by terrorists because all of us are unwilling to do what's necessary to help people who want their freedom, want their independence, want their country back," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said after a conference that drew officials from 17 countries, the European Union, the African Union, the Arab League and the United Nations, as well as 15 Libyan leaders.

Members of Libya's two rival parliaments are set to sign the agreement, mediated by U.N. special envoy Martin Kobler during a session Friday in Tunisia, at a ceremony Wednesday in Morocco.

Libya slid into chaos following the 2011 toppling and killing of dictator Moammar Gadhafi. Since then, it has been torn between an internationally recognized government in eastern Tobruk and an Islamist-backed government in the capital, Tripoli, and now faces threats from Islamic State extremists.

(AP) US Secretary of State John Kerry, left, Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni,...
Full Image

IS is trying to extend its influence beyond areas it now controls, including the city of Sirte. The envisioned government of national accord is seen as critically important to help restore security and mobilize international support to counter the extremists.

The plan for a national unity government "is not something being sprung on the people of Libya," said Kerry, who hosted the conference with Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni.

"This has been developed by Libyans" through lengthy negotiations and "deserves to breathe the air of a future and of freedom and of possibilities."

Gentiloni has pressed other countries to move faster and with more urgency on Libya, which lies just across the Mediterranean from Italy's southern shores. "The commitment taken by all today can really be a turning point in a crisis that has dragged on for so long, with all the risks that that carries for all of us," he said.

A joint statement issued after the conference urged "all parties to accept an immediate, comprehensive cease-fire in all parts of Libya" and pledged economic, security and counterterrorism assistance for the unity government.

(AP) Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Libya Martin Kobler speaks...
Full Image

Conference participants reaffirmed their commitment to Libya's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and rejected "any foreign interference in Libya. We stand behind the Libyan people's efforts to transform Libya into a secure, democratic, prosperous and unified state, where all its people can be reconciled, (and) state authority and the rule of law are restored.

The U.N. plan calls for the creation of that government within 40 days. It would give the Libyans until early February to form a presidency council that would appoint a cabinet, including chiefs of the central bank and national oil company, and begin the process of moving the Tobruk-based parliament back to Tripoli.

Libya's oil industry has been largely crippled by the crisis. Proper management, as well as that of the central bank, is considered essential to the country's viability.

The plan would extend the reconstituted parliament's term by one year and allow for an automatic one-year extension of its mandate beyond that, if necessary.

The U.N. Security Council is expected to approve of the agreement shortly after it is signed by the Libyans.

"I was impressed by the consensus of the people of Libya to end the division, to be united as one country, not to be subject to terrorist threats and this is the wish of the Libyan people now," Kobler said at a news conference.

The United Nations and many countries concerned about Libyan crisis and the rise of IS stepped up efforts to get the rival governments to accept the power-sharing agreement since the factions rejected the deal in October.

Despite the political breakthrough, Kerry said "we are under no illusions about the difficulty inherent in the road ahead. ... It takes times to overcome the legacy of four decades of dictatorship which robbed Libya of any kinds of institutions of government that are legitimate."

---

Associated Press writer Frances D'Emilio contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Dec 13, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151212/ml-yemen-8e553dd887.html

Yemen's president, Houthi rebels agree to weeklong ceasefire

Dec 12, 12:28 PM (ET)
By AHMED AL-HAJ

(AP) The spokesman of the Shiite rebels known as Houthis, Mohammed Abdel Salam, speaks at...
Full Image

SANAA, Yemen (AP) — Yemen's internationally recognized government and Shiite rebels who have controlled the capital Sanaa since September last year agreed Saturday to start a weeklong ceasefire on the eve of direct talks in Geneva, both sides confirmed.

President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi will order his commanders to halt all fire five minutes before midnight on Monday, said officials in Hadi's office, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they're not authorized to brief reporters.

"We have agreed to the ceasefire to lift the suffering of our people and to deliver humanitarian assistance to them," Mohammed Abdel Salam, the spokesman of the Shiite rebels known as Houthis, said Saturday at a news conference in Sanaa as the Houthi delegation prepared to depart for Geneva.

The fighting in Yemen pits the Houthis and troops loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh against southern separatists, local and tribal militias, Sunni Islamic militants and Hadi's loyalists.

(AP) The spokesman of the Shiite rebels known as Houthis, Mohammed Abdel Salam, center,...
Full Image

The internationally recognized government has long requested the unconditional implementation of a U.N. Security Council resolution that requires the rebels to withdraw from all areas they control and lay down arms captured in months of fighting.

Abdel Salam said the Houthi delegation will discuss the resolution at the talks in Geneva which begin Monday. But so far, the Houthis have not said they would agree to its terms.

The Security Council approved the resolution in April, after a Saudi-led coalition began launching airstrikes in March against the Houthi rebels in support of the internationally recognized government.

Even with the approaching ceasefire, clashes intensified across several front lines in the country.

More than 27 fighters from both sides were killed in Taiz and Lahj provinces late Friday and Saturday, while 16 pro-government fighters and 10 Houthi fighters were killed in Jawf province, according to independent security officials. The Saudi-led coalition also continued to carry out air strikes against Houthi positions, according to the officials.

At least 2,695 civilians have died since the anti-Houthi airstrikes began in March, according to the U.N.

Housecarl · Dec 13, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151213/ml-syria-119d21864b.html

Syrian rebels fire barrage of mortar shells into capital

Dec 13, 11:21 AM (ET)
By ALBERT AJI

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Rebels entrenched in an eastern suburb of Damascus fired volleys of mortar shells into the Syrian capital on Sunday, killing three people, including a child, and wounding 33, Syria's state-run news agency and residents said. Government forces hit back with airstrikes that activists said killed at least 28 people.

The Damascus suburb, known as Eastern Ghouta, is held by rebels fighting to topple President Bashar Assad who often launch mortars into Damascus, his seat of power.

Sunday's barrage — more than 40 mortar shells according to one report — was particularly strong and sustained, shaking residents out of bed in the early morning as shells struck residential districts.

SANA said a child was killed and three people were wounded, and said the shells caused material damage to cars and buildings.

The government responded with airstrikes and missiles on suspected rebel outposts in Eastern Ghouta.

The Local Coordination Committees and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, two opposition outfits that track the war, said at least 28 people were killed in Douma and Saqba, which are part of the same sprawling suburb.

The Observatory reported earlier that 40 shells hit Damascus on Sunday. The shelling came as the United Nations humanitarian chief, Stephen O'Brien, was visiting the Syrian capital to review humanitarian work and assess the impact on civilians of the intensified fighting and military operations.

Following a meeting with Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, O'Brien said he was pursuing efforts to have humanitarian aid reach all Syrian people. Al-Moallem, according to SANA, emphasized the need for reconciliation and local truces to help in that regard.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah announced the names of at least 11 militants it said were killed while fighting in Syria.

The Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite group has sent thousands of fighters to shore up Assad's forces. It was not clear when the 11 fighters were killed, but one security official said it happened in the past 48 hours, most of them in Syria's Qalamoun mountains near the border with Lebanon, where militants operate, including Syria's al-Qaida branch, the Nusra Front.

More than 250,000 people have been killed and millions displaced in Syria's nearly five-year conflict, which has left the country divided and devastated. Islamic extremists, including the Islamic State group and its rival, the Nusra Front, control roughly half the country.

Nusra Front leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani said in rare comments aired late Saturday that local truces only benefit the government. He criticized last week's deal in the Homs neighborhood of Waer, which saw a few hundred insurgents pull out of the district in return for a cease-fire and the delivery of humanitarian aid. Nusra Front fighters and other hard-line rebels were among those who evacuated Waer after rejecting the cease-fire deal.

"Truces are the first step to surrender," al-Golani told a small group of local and supportive journalists, remarks that were aired on the opposition Orient TV.

He also criticized as "unacceptable" a meeting of opposition factions held this week in Saudi Arabia, during which a framework for taking part in proposed peace negotiations with the government was reached.

He claimed the international community's goal is to incorporate the armed opposition with government forces, keeping Assad as president, as a prelude to fighting extremist factions.

---

Associated Press writer Zeina Karam in Beirut contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Dec 13, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151213/lt-venezuela-congress-564b30682d.html

Venezuelan president addresses military after election loss

Dec 12, 8:03 PM (ET)
By FABIOLA SANCHEZ

(AP) Supporters of Democratic Unity opposition coalition reelected congressman Miguel...
Full Image

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday told Venezuela's military to be prepared for a fight as the country remains tense after a landslide defeat for his socialist party in congressional elections.

Maduro told troops at a year-end celebration in Caracas that the coming year could see a political showdown between the socialist administration and its enemies.

Soldiers listened solemnly as the late President Hugo Chavez's voice rang out over loudspeakers, and they applauded when Maduro reminded them of his quick acceptance of the crushing legislative election loss on Dec. 6.

Maduro also said he had ordered the military to return to barracks after troops were deployed across the country to public spaces to maintain order during the election campaign and the vote itself.

(AP) Democratic Unity opposition coalition congressman Miguel Pizarro, center, is...
Full Image

All eyes are on the country's military after the opposition's victory because the armed forces have traditionally been the arbiter of major political fights in Venezuela.

Maduro kept up the combative tone he has taken with the opposition, repeating the government's longstanding contention that Venezuela's enemies are waging a war on its socialist system.

While Maduro spoke, some opposition members took to the capital's streets to celebrate their election victory, which was the socialists' first rebuff in electoral contests since Chavez was first elected president 17 years ago.

In the city's poor Petare neighborhood, a street party atmosphere reigned as re-elected opposition lawmaker Miguel Pizarro made the rounds, hugging his supporters and drawing cheers of "Long live Venezuela!"

Opposition backers sang and danced in the steep, narrow streets linked with simple brick homes.

"We were hoping for a change. It is justice that we make a change after 17 years of the same people ... We all hope with this new congress to solve the problems of crime and economic crisis," a teary-eyed Elena Moreira said after embracing Pizarro.

The opposition Democratic Unity coalition won a huge victory in the legislative contest, which came amid widespread discontent over Venezuela's high crime, widespread shortages and triple-digit inflation.

The opposition ended up with 112 of the National Assembly's 167 seats, giving it an important two-thirds majority that dramatically strengthens its hand in challenging Maduro. The socialist party and its allies hold 55 seats.

Housecarl · Dec 13, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-leader-idUSKBN0TW0OV20151213

World | Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:02pm EST
Related: World, Davos

Iran's possible next Supreme Leader being examined: Rafsanjani

DUBAI | By Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

An Iranian committee is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader, former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said on Sunday, breaking a taboo of talking publicly about succession in the Islamic Republic.

Even after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 75, had surgery for prostate cancer last year, public discussion over who would succeed him never gained momentum in official circles because of the risk of being seen to undermine Iran's most powerful figure.

But with an election in February of the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body that appoints the Supreme Leader, such discussion is bound to come to the fore.

Moderate President Hassan Rouhani and his allies are hoping to cash in on the popularity they have gained by striking a nuclear deal with world powers that could see sanctions lifted to win the majority of seats in the assembly and a parliamentary election that will be held on the same day.

"The Assembly of Experts will act when a new leader needs to be appointed. They are preparing for that now and are examining the options," Hashemi, a powerful ally of Rouhani, was quoted as saying by ILNA news agency on Sunday.

"They have appointed a group to list the qualified people that will be put to a vote (in the assembly) when an incident happens," he added in rare comments acknowledging the process.

The assembly of 82 elected clerics is charged with electing, supervising and even disqualifying the Supreme Leader.

It is elected by the people roughly every 10 years and Rafsanjani's comments could be aimed at engaging public support for the election and his allies to give them more power in choosing the next leader.

Over past decade, conservatives have gained more seats both the assembly and parliament, because all candidates are vetted by the Guardian Council, whose most influential members are chosen directly and indirectly by the Supreme Leader to interpret the constitution.

The Supreme Leader is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and appoints the heads of the judiciary. Key ministers are selected with his agreement and he has the ultimate say on Iran's foreign policy and nuclear program. By comparison, the president has little power.

Khamenei is only the second Supreme Leader of Iran, selected in 1989 when Ayatollah Khomeini died.

Rafsanjani also said the Assembly of Experts would be open to choosing "a council of leaders if needed" instead of a single Ayatollah who rules for life.

Rouhani and Rafsanjani are both members of the assembly and are expected to run in the next election.

Last week, it was announced that Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the 1979 Revolution, would also run for the assembly. Hassan, who has close ties to Hashemi and Rouhani, would be the first Khomeini to run for election.

(Editing by Alison Williams)

Housecarl · Dec 13, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-rousseff-protests-idUSKBN0TW0L420151213

World | Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:30pm EST
Related: World, Brazil

Brazilians take to streets to demand Rousseff's impeachment

SAO PAULO | By Caroline Stauffer

Thousands of Brazilians took to the streets of major cities on Sunday to demand President Dilma Rousseff's ouster, but the first nationwide protests since formal impeachment proceedings began were smaller than similar events earlier this year.

Police did not provide official estimates for turnout although television stations said there were about 6,000 in Sao Paulo and slightly fewer in Rio de Janeiro and Brasilia.

"This is just a warm-up, there will be a huge mobilization in January," said Paloma Morena, a 35-year-old chemist on Sao Paulo's most famous street, Avenida Paulista.

Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in August and up to a million Brazilians were estimated to have turned out in March. A large-scale mobilization could increase pressure on lawmakers to vote for Rousseff's impeachment.

Lower House Speaker Eduardo Cunha opened impeachment proceedings on Dec. 2, agreeing Congress should consider opposition allegations that Rousseff violated budget laws to increase spending during her 2014 re-election campaign.

But many Brazilians are more upset about the worst economic recession in at least 25 years and a corruption scandal at state-run oil firm Petrobras that has ensnared many of her allies. Rousseff is not under investigation, but many Brazilians question how she could not have known about the corruption as she was chairwoman of Petrobras from 2003 to 2010.

"Inflation is through the roof, unemployment is shockingly high and we get nothing for the amount of taxes we pay," said Andre Patrao, a 47-year-old economist demonstrating in Rio's posh Copacabana neighborhood.

Currently the opposition is not thought to have the votes to impeach Rousseff, who denies mishandling public accounts and has pledged to fight impeachment in order to finish her second term.

If a house committee decides in favor of impeachment, the process will go to a full vote on the house floor, where the opposition needs two-thirds of the votes to begin a 180-day impeachment trial in the Senate. During that trial, Rousseff would be suspended and replaced by Vice President Michel Temer.

The Supreme Court has suspended impeachment proceedings until it rules on the validity of a secret ballot vote that selected the members of the house committee. Meanwhile Cunha, a former ally who broke with Rousseff, is facing formal charges in the Petrobras investigation over allegations he took bribes.

Brazil's largest umbrella union CUT has called a protest to support Rousseff on Dec. 16.

(Additional reporting by Stephen Eisenhammer in Rio de Janeiro and Anthony Boadle in Brasilia; editing by Andrew Roche and Grant McCool)

mzkitty · Dec 14, 2015

Oh yippee. :rolleyes:

7m
Secretary of State John Kerry heading to Moscow for Syria, Ukraine talks with Putin and Lavrov - @ABC

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/kerry-heads-moscow-tough-syria-ukraine-talks-35754882

mzkitty · Dec 14, 2015

This is cute too:

10m
Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan to participate in Saudi-based Islamic alliance against terrorism, per state media - @Reuters
End of alert

28m
Saudi Arabia forms Islamic military coalition of 34 states to fight terrorism, per Saudi-owned TV - @Reuters
End of alert

41m
White House expected to authorize sale of guided missile frigates to Taiwan soon, per congressional sources - @Reuters

1h
US State Department says Islamic State now established in Yemen; says al-Qaida in the Arabia Peninsula has expanded its influence since war began - @margbrennan

1h
Yemen Minister Ezzeddin al-Asbahi says truce to begin Tuesday, not midnight Monday - @AFP

1h
7 reported dead in clashes with security forces in Turkey's Kurdish southeast after new curfews declared - @Reuters

1h
Free Syrian Army rebels deny support from Russia - @Jerusalem_Post

mzkitty · Dec 14, 2015

15m
Lockheed wins $1.09 billion contract for Patriot PAC-3 missiles - @Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/lockheed-missiles-idUSL1N14329Z20151214

17m
Editor's note: Reuters notes that a US transfer of Perry-class frigates would be the 1st arms sale to Taiwan in more than 4 years. China opposes the deal. - Tom
End of note

mzkitty · Dec 14, 2015

Hmmm............

1m
New Saudi-based Islamic military coalition will not just confront Islamic State but 'any terrorist group in front of us,' says Saudi defense minister - @Reuters
End of alert

mzkitty · Dec 14, 2015

33m
US Secretary of State John Kerry lands in Moscow; will meet with President Putin on Tuesday to discuss Syria, Islamic State, Ukraine - @margbrennan

mzkitty · Dec 14, 2015

6m
More: US Navy Pacific Fleet commander urges China to submit to international arbitration in territorial spat with Philippines, says rule of international law in South China Sea threatened by possible use of military force in dispute - @Reuters
End of alert

8m
South China Sea dispute risks stoking tensions, threatens prosperity, US Navy Pacific Fleet commander says - @Reuters
End of alert

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

Sorry folks, been feeling under the weather...When you're bundled up in a heavy bathrobe and blankets and are having chills it's time to hang it up for the day. Better today....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151214/us--ap_poll-islamic_state-82c03ee1aa.html

Americans want to get tougher with the Islamic State

Dec 14, 4:09 PM (ET)
By KEN DILANIAN and EMILY SWANSON

(AP) President Barack Obama, accompanied by, from left, Vice President Joe Biden, Defense...
Full Image

WASHINGTON (AP) — After terrorist attacks at home and abroad, more Americans than ever — but still less than half — support sending U.S. ground troops to fight the Islamic State, according to a new Associated Press-GfK Poll. A large majority also want a clearer explanation from President Barack Obama about his strategy to defeat the group.

The percentage of Americans who favor deploying U.S. troops to fight IS militants has risen from 31 percent to 42 percent over the past year in AP-GfK polling, although it isn't clear whether those respondents favor a small contingent or a larger ground force that might engage in another protracted Middle Eastern war. Other national surveys in recent weeks have found similar or greater support for American ground troops.

Obama recently dispatched about 50 special operations forces to coordinate the fight in Syria, adding to the more than 3,000 troops already in Iraq. But he and most other politicians oppose sending a large American contingent to augment the U.S.-led coalition air campaign. Most Republicans running for president have not called for that, either, although Donald Trump recently said he would support 10,000 troops, a figure originally floated by South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has pledged to keep American troops out of Syria, saying she would resist sending forces to fight Islamic militants even if there's another terrorist attack within the U.S.

(AP) Graphic shows results of AP-GfK poll on fighting the Islamic State group; 2c x 5...
Full Image

In the poll, 56 percent of Americans said the U.S. military response to the Islamic State group has not gone far enough, up from 46 percent since October 2014.

Six in 10 Republicans, but only about 3 in 10 Democrats or independents, support sending ground troops, the poll showed.

Analysts say the public desire for more action reflects growing anxiety over the Islamic State after its attack in Paris, and the shootings in San Bernardino, California, carried out by a couple apparently inspired by the group. There is also widespread unease about Obama's strategy, which envisions a long, slow campaign of airstrikes, diplomacy, training, financial sanctions and other measures.

White House officials say Obama recognizes the need to make the case for his strategy. The president gave an Oval Office speech last week, visited the Pentagon Monday and is expected to visit a counterterrorism facility later in the week.

But Obama has pointedly made the case against a U.S. ground invasion. The U.S. military could clear the Islamic State from its headquarters in Raqqa, Syria, but IS troops would return unless a local ground force was available to keep order, he said Nov, 16, after the attacks in Paris.

(AP) President Barack Obama speaks at the Pentagon, Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, about the...
Full Image

"Let's assume that we were to send 50,000 troops into Syria," Obama said. "What happens when there's a terrorist attack generated from Yemen? Do we then send more troops into there? Or Libya, perhaps? "

Most interviews for the AP-GfK poll, which was conducted Dec. 3-7, were completed before last Sunday's Oval Office address, but the survey found the president had an uphill battle to allay Americans' concerns.

Just 28 percent in the survey said Obama had clearly explained the United States' goals in fighting the Islamic State, while 68 percent said he had not. Eighty-eight percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents said the president had not clearly explained the goals, and even among Democrats 51 percent agreed.

Daniel Byman, a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, said Obama's methodical approach is unsatisfying to Americans but they would be even more displeased if the U.S. troops were dying in Syria.

"Sure, right now, Americans are baying for blood, but if three years down the road, the U.S. has 50,000 troops in Iraq and Syria and we're taking casualties, then American are going to be saying, 'Why did people do stupid things and put American troops at risk."

Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, has himself conducted surveys showing some support for U.S. ground troops. But he doesn't believe the public wants an all-out invasion.

"Iraq syndrome is still hanging there," he said, referring to a hangover from the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, "and the public doesn't really think that war is going to solve the ISIS problem."

One AP poll respondent, Carl Ripperton, a retired executive living near Memphis, Tennessee, said he favored a U.S. invasion if American generals determined that one was needed to defeat the Islamic State.

"It's gotta be done," said Ripperton, 76, a National Guard veteran and self-professed political independent. "The bombing doesn't seem to have done anything. I would think if we just went in there and wiped them out that would take care of it. I mean they might pop up again, but at least we'd take care of this group."

The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online using a sample drawn from GfK's probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

---

Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

Can you say "failed state"......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151215/ml--iraq-doctors_in_peril-a86f64420e.html

Doctors still working in Iraq face violence, tribal justice

Dec 15, 1:59 AM (ET)
By SINAN SALAHEDDIN

(AP) In this Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015, photo, anesthesiologist Bashar Taha works with his...
Full Image

BAGHDAD (AP) — For nearly three months, anesthesiologist Bashar Taha lived in fear of deadly retaliation.

Taha, 38, was part of a team that performed plastic surgery on a female patient's nose in a Baghdad hospital. The woman had surgery complications afterward and was sent to intensive care, where she died. An autopsy showed bacterial poisoning from the intensive care room caused her death.

But the family blamed Taha and the surgeon, demanding their respective tribes arbitrate the case and rule on compensation. Otherwise, the doctors would face lethal consequences, the family threatened.

As Iraq struggles to combat the Islamic State group, which has captured large swaths of territory and plunged the country into the worst political and security crisis since the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011, threats against doctors have increased. Research published in the Lancet medical journal estimates more than 2,000 doctors have been killed in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Over the past year, doctors and other medical workers say they are increasingly facing harassment and assaults by disgruntled relatives of patients.

(AP) In this Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015, photo, anesthesiologist Bashar Taha works with his...
Full Image

The phenomenon reflects the growing power of tribal rule in the face of Iraq's weakening central government. Doctors are either turning down cases or seeking work abroad in increasing numbers, further crippling a health care system already plagued by corruption, mismanagement and shortages.

Taha, the anesthesiologist, had approached the Iraqi Doctors Syndicate and even clerics, but with little faith in Iraq's dysfunctional justice system, they hinted he should work with tribal leaders. Eventually, he and the surgeon paid the family 50 million Iraqi dinars (about $41,000).

"We are living in a state of lawlessness, the government is barely able to function," Taha told The Associated Press. "So we paid in order to save ourselves and our families, or at least to avoid being assaulted or insulted by an uneducated man in the street in front of others."

The deputy head of the Iraqi Doctors Syndicate, Dr. Mahdi Jassim, said assaults occur "on a daily basis in almost all medical centers due to the lack of security nationwide." He called for "swift action from the government to protect the doctors, otherwise we will all lose."

Since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, Iraq's professional class has been targeted by militants trying to widen chaos or by gangs extorting the wealthy.

Since the 1990s — when the country reeled under harsh U.N. economic sanctions — about 11,000 doctors have left Iraq, the majority of them after 2003, Health Ministry spokesman Ahmed al-Rudaini said. The country's medical centers are limping along with only 25 percent of the required staffing, he said.

Specific numbers for assaults, kidnappings and killings of medical staff are not available, but al-Rudaini said the issue has become a "phenomenon recently that forces a lot of doctors not to accept major surgeries with high risk or to seek refuge abroad, making it hard for the ministry to persuade those who are abroad to return."

Jassim said every month about 70 to 80 doctors, mostly new graduates, apply to the Iraqi Doctors Syndicate for the documents that are needed to seek jobs outside Iraq.

Interior Ministry spokesman Brig. Gen. Saad Maan said a special committee has been established in coordination with the Health Ministry to follow up on the assaults. "We have increased the number of guards in health institutions and attackers will face tough measures," he said.

Like many parts of the Arab world, tribal affiliations play a significant role in Iraqi society. Their influence was more muted before 2003 but has surged in many parts of Iraq due to the chaos and successive weak governments since Saddam's toppling.

Many people now prefer to solve disputes — like theft, assaults and murder — through their tribes instead of going to authorities. Some disputes in the south this year turned into bloody clashes that lasted for days, paralyzing those areas as security forces stayed on the sidelines.

Iraqi tribal arbitration still follows centuries-old customs. The plaintiff tribe sends a mediator to invite the other tribe to meet at their diwan — a place where tribesmen receive guests — within a specific period of time. If the other tribe fails to show, the plaintiff tribe can take up arms to exact revenge.

It's not only ordinary citizens who rely on tribal justice. This year, at least two tribal sessions were held for lawmakers over statements they made against each other in the media.

Iraq's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayattollah Ali al-Sistani, last month blamed "the weak status of the law that gives opportunity to some to use their influence or tribal arbitration as a means to assault and blackmail others."

In late September, 32-year-old Saddam al-Saiedi died a few days after having weight loss surgery in Iraq's southern city of Basra. Autopsy results have not yet been released, but al-Saiedi's tribe blamed the surgeon, who fled the city after the words "Wanted to be punished for death" were spray-painted on his home and clinic.

"The health situation in Basra is terrible. The doctors are greedy and care only about their pockets, while authorities do not monitor their work and do not punish the wrongdoers," said al-Saiedi's brother, Mohammed. "If all these things existed in Iraq, I would never rely on the tribe."

He added: "If lawmakers are relying on their tribes to solve their issues, what should a normal citizen do?"

A Baghdad-based surgeon said his female patient died three months after weight loss surgery, prompting her tribe to demand compensation. He said they refused to wait for results of the autopsy and even threatened to kill him.

The surgeon, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is still trying to resolve the dispute, said he complained to police, who didn't treat his case seriously. Eventually, he asked his tribe to provide guards for his clinic and home.

"I'm not guilty, so I don't want to solve it through tribes," he said.

When the issue is finally resolved, the surgeon said he was planning to ask for an unpaid one-year vacation to seek other opportunities abroad. "I had ambition, but it is gone now."

---

Follow Sinan Salaheddin on Twitter at www.twitter.com/sinansm

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151215/yemen-63f687f431.html

Yemen peace talks underway as some rebels ignore cease-fire

Dec 15, 9:32 AM (ET)
By JAMEY KEATEN and AHMED AL-HAJ

(AP) Shiite tribesmen, known as Houthis, hold their weapons during a tribal gathering...
Full Image

GENEVA (AP) — U.N.-brokered peace talks between Yemen's internationally recognized government and the country's Shiite rebels started on Tuesday in Switzerland, with the difficulty of the task underscored by rebel fighters' failure to honor a weeklong cease-fire in some parts of the country.

The ceasefire scheduled to start at noon on Tuesday was meant to give the warring factions a chance to find a solution to the conflict that has collapsed the Arab world's poorest country. However, rebel shelling and ground clashes continued in the southwestern Taiz province, said security officials who remain neutral in the conflict that has splintered the country.

Airstrikes by a Saudi-led coalition targeting the rebels, however, have halted, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters.

Yemen has been torn by fighting pitting the rebels, known as Houthis, and army units loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh against an array of forces, including the internationally recognized government, which is backed by the Saudi-led coalition and supported by the United States, and also southern separatists, religious extremists and other militants.

(AP) Shiite tribesmen, known as Houthis, hold their weapons as they chant slogans during...
Full Image

In a statement, U.N. special envoy for Yemen Ismail Cheikh Ahmed said the talks in Switzerland "should mark the end of military violence in Yemen."

"The people of Yemen are daily, indeed hourly, anticipating the outcome of these discussions. This meeting is their only glimmer of hope and must not be extinguished," the envoy said in his opening remarks. "The tongues of fire, the scenes of destruction, the reverberation of bombs and the soaring prices have turned their daily lives into a series of ongoing tragedies."

In Geneva, U.N. spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said a total of 24 people were taking part in the "open-ended" talks.

According to the U.N., the war in Yemen has killed at least 5,884 people since March, when the fighting escalated after the Saudi-led coalition began launching airstrikes targeting the rebels.

Just hours before the scheduled start of the cease-fire, the coalition and pro-government forces seized the Red Sea island of Zuqar from the rebels.

(AP) Shiite tribesmen, known as Houthis, perform a traditional dance during a tribal...
Full Image

Yemeni security officials, who have remained neutral in the conflict, said both sides had intensified the fighting to solidify their positions ahead of the truce. There was no immediate word on casualties and the officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to reporters.

Past efforts to end the violence have ended in failure, as the government insisted the Houthis comply with a U.N. resolution that requires them to return seized weapons and territory they had captured over the past year, including the capital, Sanaa. In response, the Houthis demanded negotiations over the country's political future.

The two sides had initially agreed to halt fire at midnight Monday but the coalition delayed the truce to midday Tuesday, without elaborating.

Both sides of the conflict confirmed permission for "unconditional movement of supplies, personnel and teams to all parts of the country" during the cease-fire, the World Health Organization's mission chief for Yemen told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday. It was not immediately clear if deliveries were affected because of the fighting in Taiz.

Dr. Ahmed Shadoul said the WHO had 19 supply trucks ready to move in the Yemeni cities of Sanaa and Aden. Shadoul said 150 metric tons (165 tons) of supplies across the Red Sea in Djibouti could be delivered by next week.

The talks were taking place at the Swiss Olympic House in the village of Macolin, a training center for elite athletes. Outside the two buildings at the sports center, police armed with automatic weapons were on patrol and they cordoned off the facility with metal barriers — requiring journalists to keep about 50 meters (yards) away.

---

Al-Haj reported from Sanaa, Yemen. Associated Press writers Nour Youssef in Cairo and Boris Heger in Macolin contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

MzKitty's posts above (#25 and #27)..... Also....

Saudi Arabia forms Islamic counterterrorism coalition
Started by michaelteever‎, Today 11:25 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...abia-forms-Islamic-counterterrorism-coalition

I wonder whether this is going to be limited by the Saudi's checkbook.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151215/ml-saudi-terrorism-43f4a0ede2.html

Saudi Arabia forms Islamic counterterrorism coalition

Dec 15, 9:47 AM (ET)
By AYA BATRAWY

(AP) In this Thursday, Sept. 17, 2015 file photo, a drone is used to record a...
Full Image

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that 34 nations have agreed to form a new "Islamic military alliance" to fight terrorism with a joint operations center based in the kingdom, but the coalition does not include Shiite-majority Iran or Iraq, and it's not clear how exactly it would function.

The announcement, published by the state-run Saudi Press Agency, said the Saudi-led alliance is being established because terrorism "should be fought by all means and collaboration should be made to eliminate it."

However, the absence of Iran, Iraq and Syria, three countries battling the Islamic State group, raised questions about whether the alliance was intended to present a unified front against the extremists or Tehran, Saudi Arabia's main regional rival.

Riyadh backs rebels fighting to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad, a key Iranian ally, and has been leading a coalition of Arab states against Iran-supported Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen since March. It is also part of the U.S.-led coalition fighting the IS group in Syria and Iraq.

(AP) In this Thursday, Sept. 17, 2015 file photo, Saudi security forces take part...
Full Image

The Saudi statement said Islam forbids "corruption and destruction in the world" and that terrorism constitutes "a serious violation of human dignity and rights, especially the right to life and the right to security."

The new counterterrorism coalition includes nations with large and established armies such as Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt, as well as war-torn countries like Libya and Yemen. African nations that have suffered militant attacks, such as Mali, Chad, Somalia and Nigeria, are also members.

It was not immediately clear what role, if any, the United States would play in the coalition. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said he is looking forward to learning more about what Saudi Arabia has in mind.

"In general, at least, it appears that it's very much aligned with something that we've been urging for quite some time, which is greater involvement in the campaign to combat ISIL by Sunni Arab countries," Carter told reporters during a visit to Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, referring to the IS group by one of its acronyms. He said he'd like to talk to the Saudis about the plan so he can learn more about it.

A senior defense official said the U.S. did not know in advance about the plan for the alliance, and that officials were working to find out the details. The official was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly so spoke on condition of anonymity.

(AP) In this Thursday, Sept. 17, 2015 file photo, Saudi security forces take part...
Full Image

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey, the only NATO member in the new coalition, called it the "best response to those who are trying to associate terror and Islam."

"We believe that this effort by Muslim countries is a step in the right direction," Davutoglu said.

At a rare news conference, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman said the new Islamic military coalition will develop mechanisms for working with other countries and international bodies to support counterterrorism efforts. He said their efforts would not be limited to countering the Islamic State group.

"Currently, every Muslim country is fighting terrorism individually ... so coordinating efforts is very important," he said.

He said the joint operations center will be established in Riyadh to "coordinate and support military operations to fight terrorism" across the Muslim world.

(AP) In this Thursday, Sept. 17, 2015 file photo, Saudi security forces show their...
Full Image

Smaller member-states included in the coalition are the archipelago of the Maldives and the Gulf Arab island-nation of Bahrain, which is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet.

Other Gulf Arab countries such as Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are also in the coalition, though notably absent from the list is Oman, a neighbor of Saudi Arabia. In recent years, Oman has maintained a neutral role and has emerged as a mediator in regional conflicts, serving as a conduit from the Gulf Arabs to Iran.

A Jordanian government spokesman confirmed that the Hashemite kingdom is part of the coalition. Spokesman Mohammed Momani would not comment specifically on the alliance but said that "Jordan is always ready and actively participates in any effort to fight terrorism."

A Lebanese official confirmed to The Associated Press that his nation was also part of the 34-nation coalition. Tiny Lebanon has seen frequent spillovers from Syria's civil war next door, as well as sectarian clashes and militant attacks.

"Lebanon is fighting a daily war against terrorism ... Lebanon cannot but be part of the alliance that is combating terrorism," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to give official statements. Asked how Lebanon plans to contribute to the alliance, he said that "these are details that we haven't gotten into yet."

Benin, while it does not have a Muslim majority, is a member of the new coalition. All the group's members are also part of the larger Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which is headquartered in Saudi Arabia.

The full roster of the new coalition is: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Jordan, Tunisia, Yemen, the Palestinians, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Benin, Chad, Togo, Djibouti, Senegal, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Gabon, Guinea, Comoros, Cote d'Ivoire, Maldives, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Nigeria.

---

Associated Press writers Karin Laub in Amman, Jordan, Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, Zeina Karam in Beirut and Lolita C. Baldor in Incirlik Air Base, Turkey contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151214/ml--israel-palestinians-1083a20d31.html

Abbas: Palestinian violence is "justified popular uprising"

Dec 14, 2:04 PM (ET)
By MOHAMMED DARAGHMEH

(AP) Israeli policemen push a trash container, as water sprays from a burst fire hydrant,...
Full Image

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas referred to the last three months of violence Monday as a "justified popular uprising".

Abbas's comments came as a new poll shows widespread Palestinian support for ongoing attacks on Israelis. Later Monday, a Palestinian from east Jerusalem rammed his car into a crowded bus stop, wounding nine before bystanders shot him dead.

Israeli leaders have accused Abbas and other Palestinian leaders of inciting the violence with incendiary rhetoric. Abbas has previously refrained from either endorsing or condemning the attacks, often referring to the wave of violence as understandable but not in the best interests of the Palestinian people.

"We cannot ask the youth why they are going out (to revolt)," Abbas said in Ramallah. "They just despaired of the two-state solution."

(AP) Ultra orthodox Jews stand at the scene of an attack in Jerusalem Monday, Dec. 14,...
Full Image

A poll released Monday found that two-thirds of Palestinians support the current wave of stabbings. Most Palestinians believe if the current individual attacks develop into an armed intifada, the violence might serve Palestinian national interests more than negotiations would.

Khalil Shikaki of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research conducted the survey, with a sample size of 1270 and a 3-percent margin of error.

Monday's ramming is the latest in a three-month period of near-daily bloodshed. Since mid-September, Palestinians have killed 19 Israelis in stabbing, shooting and vehicular attacks. At least 113 Palestinians have died by Israeli fire in the same period, of whom 76 are said by Israel to be assailants. The rest were killed in clashes with Israeli security forces.

In Monday's attack, Abed Almohsin Hassoneh, 21, from the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Beit Hanina, barreled his white Mazda into a bus stop on a crowded thoroughfare at the western entrance to the city, according to police spokeswoman Luba Samri. She said police found an axe in Hassoneh's vehicle, suggesting he intended to attack Israelis.

Israel condemned Abbas's comment that attacks are "justified."

"There can never be justification for wanton attacks on civilians like we saw today," said Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev.

Although Palestinians agree with the message issued by Abbas, support for the aging leader is dwindling. The poll found that 65 percent of Palestinians believe Abbas should resign. A similar figure supported his resignation in a poll released three months ago.

In Jerusalem, Mayor Nir Barkat vowed to erect protective barriers near bus stations on the city's main traffic arteries.

Barkat praised the "immediate alertness" of bystanders who averted "a grave tragedy."

vestige · Dec 15, 2015

Saudi Arabia forms Islamic counterterrorism coalition

hogwash

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

Think it's bad here? Chinese rights lawyer stands trial for social media posts
Started by mzkitty‎, 12-13-2015 06:57 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ts-lawyer-stands-trial-for-social-media-posts

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151215/as-china-plainclothes-politics-ddc299addc.html

China's plainclothes officers a force against dissent

Dec 15, 9:47 AM (ET)
By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN

(AP) In this Jan. 26, 2014 file photo, Chinese policemen manhandle a photographer,...
Full Image

BEIJING (AP) — The tough guys wore smiley face stickers, but they weren't there to spread good cheer.

Scenes of pushing, shouting and shoving outside a Beijing courthouse this week were orchestrated by plainclothes security officers identified by a sticker familiar around the world — the yellow decal identified since the 1970s with the slogan "Have a Nice Day."

Their attempts to intimidate journalists, foreign diplomats and a small cohort of human rights advocates outside the trial of a well-known activist lawyer are all-too familiar to China's beleaguered dissident community.

"The plainclothes police are the ones the Communist Party uses when they know what they're doing has no basis in law," said independent environmental activist Wu Lihong, who lives under a form of house arrest that becomes especially strict during sensitive political occasions.

(AP) In this Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, photo, a foreign journalist covering the trial of...
Full Image

The use of such agents dovetails with the party's desire to pay lip service to the rule by law while quashing all opposition, controlling the public discourse and sentencing critics to lengthy prison terms for hazily defined national security crimes.

The plainclothes agents did not specifically identify themselves as such, but foreign journalists in Beijing have interacted with them for two decades. They typically appear in civilian clothes in a wide variety of circumstances where foreign media might interact with government critics and authorities want to maintain control without uniformed officers intervening directly.

That was on full display Monday outside Beijing's No. 2 Intermediate Court, where lawyer Pu Zhiqiang was on trial on charges of provoking trouble and stirring ethnic hatred with online commentary critical of one-party rule.

Dozens of journalists were pushed around, including one who was slammed to the ground. At least five protesters were assaulted and taken away in vehicles, while diplomats from the European Union and the United States were interrupted, cursed at and jostled while attempting to read out statements criticizing Beijing's actions.

The smiley face stickers were presumably meant to identify the plainclothes officers to their uniformed colleagues and other security agents. Similarly, plainclothes agents wore green stickers last year to identify themselves while breaking up protests outside the Beijing courthouse where clean government advocate Xu Zhiyong was tried on charges of gathering a crowd to disturb public order.

(AP) In this Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, photo, a plainclothes policemen wearing a yellow...
Full Image

Xu, founder of the grassroots New Citizens movement, received a four-year sentence. Pu has denied the charges against him and the trial concluded about midday, with his lawyer Shang Baojun saying a verdict and sentence would be delivered at a later date.

As is standard in such cases, the officers on Monday refused to display identification and wore anti-smog face masks to obscure their identities.

Using such anonymous agents, or even independent contractors without official status, offers the government plausible deniability in the event situations might turn nasty. It also allows a degree of flexibility and a buffer between the authorities and actions that might be distasteful or illegal, while permitting uniformed officers to appear reasonable and law-abiding.

At least on Monday, the tactic may have backfired. Images broadcast around the world showed a violent and chaotic scene and drew even-more attention to the case of the lawyer Pu, who is being prosecuted for his past work advocating for political dissidents and government critics including avant-garde artist Ai Weiwei.

The scuffles attracted passers-by and about 50 people gathered and shouted slogans, including "Pu Zhiqiang is innocent." Signs displayed were emblazoned with slogans such as, "The people don't even have the rights that dogs enjoy," while plainclothes officers shouted back abuse, including calling the protesters "traitors."

(AP) In this Jan. 26, 2014, file photo, Zhang Qingfang, lawyer of legal scholar and...
Full Image

Whether China's image-makers care about the impressions such scenes create is doubtful. Beijing has consistently rejected foreign pressure over its domestic politics, while president and Communist Party chief Xi Jinping stridently asserts that China will never compromise on core issues of sovereignty and independence.

"For the authorities, it looks like disastrous public relations, but maybe they just don't care," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, an expert on Chinese politics at Hong Kong Baptist University. "They can always claim that (the officers) were ordinary citizens and there's very little anyone can do."

The ministry that oversees China's domestic security services did not immediately respond to faxed questions about the deployment and supervision of plainclothes officers.

Plainclothes officers and police auxiliaries are deployed for both short- and long-term assignments involving duties that fall outside the strict purview of uniformed officers. In one of the best-known cases, informal law enforcement officers were entrusted with guarding the rural home of blind legal activist Chen Guangcheng, who nevertheless escaped their around-the-clock watch to seek shelter at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.

Plainclothes officers are also assigned to watch the apartment of Liu Xia, the wife of imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, who lives under virtual house arrest in central Beijing. Criticism from the outside only seems to embolden decision-makers in the government that now spends more each year on domestic security than it does on national defense.

"They are simply forcing others to accept their will and showing that they will never accept outside sanctions on China's human rights situation," Cabestan said.

---

Associated Press videographer Aritz Parra and photographer Andy Wong contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151215/af--nigeria-shiite_raid-ab19e1578e.html

Activists: Nigeria military killed hundreds of Shiites

Dec 15, 9:24 AM (ET)
By MICHELLE FAUL

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — Activists on Tuesday accused Nigeria's military of killing hundreds upon hundreds, perhaps as many as 1,000, Shiite Muslims in just three days in what the country's top human rights protector is calling "a massacre" in the ancient Islamic town of Zaria.

The Shiite Islamic Movement in Nigeria said soldiers on Monday carried away about 200 bodies from around the home of leader Ibraheem Zakzaky, who was badly wounded in the attack, and demanded that the bodies be returned for the speedy burial required by Islamic tradition, according to group spokesman Ibrahim Musa.

Chidi Odinkalu of the Nigerian Human Rights Commission posted photos on social media showing a bulldozer tearing apart a Shiite shrine and said Zakzaky's home also was destroyed Zaria, located 160 kilometers (100 miles) southwest of Kano, Nigeria's second-largest city in the north.

Odinkalu told The Associated Press that Zakzaky suffered four bullet wounds and one of his wives was killed in raids that began Saturday and ended with Zakzaky's detention by soldiers on Monday morning. Odinkalu was quoting the family doctor.

Two of Zakzaky's sons also were killed and one was wounded, according to Musa.

Zakzaky and one wife have been detained by the military, according to Kaduna state Gov. Nasir El-Rufai.

Odinkalu and other human rights activists said there are hundreds of bodies at the mortuary of the Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital on the outskirts of Zaria.

"Citizens must ask, who ordered this carnage?" Odinkalu tweeted.

Nigerian troops said the raids came after 500 Shiites blocked the convoy of Nigeria's army chief, and tried to kill him. Army spokesman Col. Sani Usman said the Shiites stoned the convoy. But a military report seen by the AP said the group actually opened fire on the convoy and planned to petrol bomb the vehicle of Gen. Tukur Buratai.

Maj Gen. Adeniyi Oyebade, who was in charge of the operation, told reporters Monday night that the military acted because they had reports the Shiites were gathering for an attack. "Of course, because of the report I got that they are mobilizing, I had to order that the Gyallesu (Zakzady's residence) and Hussainiya (shrine) be brought down," he said.

He said both the military and the Shiites suffered casualties and that the dead are still being counted.

Odinkalu tweeted that his friend, UNDP worker Bukhari Mohammed Bello Jega, was killed and "his young wife & child are also missing, presumed dead ..."

Outraged Nigerians took to social media to condemn "trigger-happy troops" and "extra-judicial killings."

The three areas attacked by the military remained on lockdown Tuesday, with no one allowed to enter or leave. Musa charged wounded people are being denied medical treatment by the blocks.

Iran, seen as the guardian of the Shiite Muslim faith, condemned the killings. Iranian state TV said the Foreign Ministry on Monday summoned Nigeria's charge d'affaires to demand that the Nigerian government take responsibility for the lives and properties of its millions of Shiites.

State Department spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. Embassy in Abuja is seeking information about what happened. He said the U.S. government will continue to make protection of civilians and respect for human rights "a priority in its ongoing engagement with the Nigerian government."

Nigeria's Shiites, a movement started 37 years ago by Zakzaky, who dresses in the robes and turban of an Iranian ayatollah, often have clashed with police and other security forces over their unlawful blocking of major roads to hold religious processions.

Nigeria's military is infamous for its excesses. Nigerian troops are accused of killing thousands of detainees by shooting, torture, starvation and suffocation in its prosecution of a war against Boko Haram Islamic extremists in the northeast.

The Shiites two weeks ago suffered a suicide bombing by Boko Haram that killed 22 people. Boko Haram often attacks Muslims who oppose its radical vision of Islam.

In 2009, Nigerian armed forces attacked Boko Haram's headquarters and killed about 700 people, including its leader. The group re-emerged as a much more violent entity.

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151215/lt-mexico-the-disappeared-the-killer-10fdc6857a.html

30 lives extinguished, but no regrets: A killer's story

Dec 15, 8:53 AM (ET)
By E. EDUARDO CASTILLO

(AP) In this Nov. 29, 2015 photo, a man claiming to be responsible for kidnapping,...
Full Image

IGUALA, Mexico (AP) — The killer says he "disappeared" a man for the first time at age 20. Nine years later, he says, he has eliminated 30 people — maybe three in error.

He sometimes feels sorry about the work he does but has no regrets, he says, because he is providing a kind of public service, defending his community from outsiders. Things would be much worse if rivals took over.

"A lot of times your neighborhood, your town, your city is being invaded by people who you think are going to hurt your family, your society," he says. "Well, then you have to act, because the government isn't going to come help you."

He operates along the Costa Grande of Guerrero, the southwestern state that is home to glitzy Acapulco as well as to rich farmland used to cultivate heroin poppies and marijuana. Large swaths of the state are controlled or contested by violent drug cartels that traffic in opium paste for the U.S. market, and more than 1,000 people have been reported missing in Guerrero since 2007— far fewer than the actual number believed to have disappeared in the state.

(AP) In this Nov. 29, 2015 photo, a man claiming to be responsible for kidnapping,...
Full Image

The plight of the missing and their families burst into public awareness last year when 43 rural college students were detained by police and disappeared from the Guerrero city of Iguala, setting off national protests. Then, suddenly, hundreds more families from the area came forward to report their kidnap victims, known now as "the other disappeared." They told stories of children and spouses abducted from home at gunpoint, or who left the house one day and simply vanished.

This is a story from the other side, the tale of a man who kidnaps, tortures and kills for a drug cartel. His story is the mirror image of those recounted by survivors and victims' families, and seems to confirm their worst fears: Many, if not most, of the disappeared likely are never coming home.

"Have you disappeared people?" he is asked.

"Yes," he replies.

In Mexico and other places where kidnapping is common, the word "disappeared" is an active verb and also an adjective to describe the missing. Disappearing someone means kidnapping, torturing, killing and disposing of the body in a place where no one will ever find it.

(AP) In this Nov. 29, 2015 photo, a man claiming to be responsible for kidnapping,...
Full Image

To date, none of the killer's victims have been found, he says.

For months, the AP approached sources connected with cartel bosses, seeking an interview with someone who kills people on their behalf.

Finally, the bosses put forward this 29-year-old man, with conditions: He, his organization and the town where he met with reporters would not be identified. He would appear on camera wearing a ski mask, and his voice would be distorted. And one of his bosses would be present throughout.

In jeans and a camouflage T-shirt, the hit man looked younger than his 29 years. He wore a baseball cap with a badge bearing the face of Sinaloa cartel boss Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman and "prisoner 3578" — Guzman's inmate number before he escaped through a tunnel from Mexico's maximum-security prison in July, cementing his image as a folk hero.

"Of all the bad lot," the killer said, Guzman "seems to be the least bad."

The killer — who does not work for Guzman — does not see himself as bad. Unlike others, he says, he has standards: He doesn't kill women or children. He doesn't make his victims dig their own graves. He raises cattle for a living and doesn't consider himself a drug trafficker or a professional killer, although he is paid for disappearing people. While he acknowledges that what he does is illegal, he says he is defending his people against the violence of other cartels.

The killer wears a bag with a strap over his chest in which he carries several walkie-talkies and cell phones, one of which he used to take calls and issue orders: "Muevanse," he said — move on. "Esperense ah½ed}" — wait there. Just before the interview begins, he puts the bag aside, and slips on the ski mask. He sits in a plastic armchair.

There are many reasons people are disappeared, the killer says. It may be for belonging to a rival gang, or for giving information to one. If a person is considered a security risk for any reason, he may be disappeared. Some are kidnapped for ransom, though he says he does not do this.

Each kidnapping starts with locating the target. The best place is at a home, early in the morning, "when everyone is asleep." But sometimes they are kidnapped from public areas. If the target is unarmed, two men are enough to carry out a "pickup" or "levanton," as the gang kidnappings are known. If he is armed, it requires more manpower.

The victim is taken to a safe house or far enough out into the woods that no one will hear him during the next step: "getting information out of them by torture."

He rests his forearms on the chair and moves his hands over his knees as he speaks about torture. He describes three methods: beatings; waterboarding, or simulated drownings in which a cloth is tied around the mouth and nose, and water is poured over it; and electric shocks to the testicles, tongue and the soles of the feet.

He has no training in torture. He learned it all by practice, he says. "With time, you come to learn how to hurt people, to get the information you need."

It usually takes just one night. "Of the people who have information you want, 99 percent will give you that information," he says. Once he gets it, he kills them. "Usually with a gun."

The problem is that people under torture sometimes admit to things that are not true: "They do it in hope that you will stop hurting them. They think it's a way to get out of the situation."

That may have happened to him three times, he says, leading him to kill the wrong men.

The dead are buried in clandestine grave sites, dumped into the ocean, or burned. If the organization wants to send a message to another cartel, a victim's tortured body is dumped in a public area. But the 30 people he has "disappeared" all have been buried, he says.

By the official count, 26,000 Mexicans have been reported missing nationwide since 2007, just over 1,000 of those from Guerrero. But human rights officials and the experience of families from the Iguala area indicate that most people are too afraid to report kidnappings, particularly in areas where police, municipal and state officials are believed to be operating in tandem with the cartels. The official tally has just 24 missing from the Costa Grande area, where the killer says he has been involved in the killings of 30 people.

"The (disappeared) problem is much bigger than people think," the killer says.

The killer has a grade-school education. He wanted to continue studying, but when he was a child there was no middle school in his town. "I would have liked to learn languages ... to travel to other places or other countries. I would have liked that," he said.

Some in his circumstances use drugs, but he says he doesn't. "When people are on drugs, they're not really themselves," he says. "They lose control, their judgment."

He says no one forced him to join his organization. His parents and siblings don't know what he does, but he thinks they can guess, since he is always armed: He usually carries a .38-caliber pistol and an AK-47 assault rifle.

He isn't married and has no children. Although he would like to have a family, he knows his future is uncertain. "I don't really see anything," he said. "I don't think you can make plans for the future, because you don't know what will happen tomorrow."

"It's not a pretty life," he says.

Life in an area torn by drug disputes is rarely pretty. For years, Guzman's Sinaloa cartel controlled drug production, coastal access and trafficking routes in Guerrero. The Beltran Leyva brothers took over, until the Mexican government killed Arturo Beltran Leyva in a shootout in December 2009, and then the state's opium and marijuana business was divided up among half a dozen smaller cartels, including Guerreros Unidos, los Rojos, Los Granados and La Familia, from neighboring Michoacan state.

Besides running drugs, some Mexican cartels operate extortion rackets and control human trafficking to the United States. Where needed, they buy off politicians and police forces to make sure nothing gets in the way of business. When necessary, they kill those who fail to cooperate.

The violence spikes when cartels are fighting each other for control of territory, or when the military launches operations to strike the cartels. An anti-narcotics military operation prevented the killer's arrival at a pre-arranged location on the first try, but the next day he and his bosses made it to a house on a humid stretch of the Pacific Ocean known as the Costa Grande, an area lush with groves of coconuts and mangos — other exports for which cartels take a cut.

In recent years, residents of a number of towns and cities have taken up arms to protect themselves against drug cartels. In several cases, authorities have claimed these vigilantes are allied with rival gangs, and pass themselves off as self-defense groups to gain greater legitimacy.

Federal authorities told the AP that several drug gangs in Guerrero, including those that operate on the Costa Grande, act as self-defense groups to generate support from local residents.

"I can't say I'm a vigilante," says the killer, "but I am part of a group that protects people, an autonomous group of people who protect their town, their people."

He recognizes he would be punished if caught by the authorities. "For them, these (killings) are not justifiable under the laws we have, but my conscience — how can I put this — this is something that I can justify, because I am defending my family." A rival gang, "would do worse damage."

The killer fears dying, but he fears being captured by a rival gang even more. He knows better than most what will happen to him: "If I died in a shootout, for example, the suffering wouldn't be as bad."

With the same lack of emotion with which he described torture, the killer addresses his many murders.

"Whatever you want to say, you're hurting someone and in the end, you kill them, and that leaves people hurting, the family hurting," he said. "It's the kind of thing that causes stress and remorse, because it's not a good thing."

But he tries not to think about it too much, and while he can remember the number of people he has killed and the places he buried them, he says he cannot recall his victims. "Over time," he says, "you forget."

---_

E. Eduardo Castillo on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/EECastilloAP

Housecarl · Dec 15, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/rethinking-north-korean-missile-capabilities/

Rethinking North Korean Missile Capabilities

Pyongyang’s missile failures must be seen for what they are – teething issues the Kim regime is determined to overcome.

By Nah Liang Tuang
December 13, 2015

1.1k Shares
4 Comments

Following the test of an underwater missile ejection system of the first submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in May this year, North Korea conducted an even more ambitious test towards the end of last month – a flight test of the aforementioned SLBM, the Bukkeukseong-1 or “Polaris-1” missile. Despite the test being conducted from a floating barge, implying that Pyongyang lacks the confidence or capability for a full-fledged underwater test, the Bukkeukseong-1 failed upon launch, with missile debris subsequently seen floating in the Sea of Japan. But even as anti-DPRK watchers might feel a sense of schadenfreude when Pyongyang’s missile development team stumbles and falls, or even snigger at the lackluster qualities of their missiles, gloating is not only premature but ill-advised.

The Nature of Weapons Development

Based on available information, the North Korean Bukkeukseong-1 is likely a copy of the obsolete Soviet SS-N-5 “Sark” SLBM. Taking the development of the Sark as a guideline for the operational introduction of Pyongyang’s first SLBM, it can be seen that the Soviets took about four years from 1958-1962 to design and flight test the first SS-N-5. Notwithstanding the fact that Moscow’s missile research was backed by the full scientific and industrial muscle of the USSR, while Pyongyang has to make do with the decidedly inferior military-industrial complex driving its missile program, the latter can take however long it needs, and make all the blunders necessary (no matter how embarrassing) to build and deploy its first successful SLBM. It is of little comfort to Washington, Seoul and Tokyo whether the Korean People’s Navy fields its first SLBM in 2019, or takes twice the time the Soviets did, and puts SLBMs out to sea in 2023.

Next, those who decry the North Korean “Polaris-1” as being inferior or retrograde, citing the missile’s predicted short range of 890 nautical miles, which makes even a strike on Guam improbable, and its poor accuracy (only 50 percent of all missiles are likely to land within 2.8 km of a target), should note this is only the DPRK’s first SLBM prototype. As long as the Kim regime endures, its missile research and manufacturing sector can adopt a long run time horizon to implement modifications and improvements to this missile while it is still a prototype. Consequently, the final successfully flight-tested version might be a far more threatening creature than the one designed in the initial blueprints.

As proof of the non-static nature of North Korean missiles, it can be seen that the DPRK’s introduced missiles have increasing range and capabilities. From the Hwasong-5 in 1985 with a range of 320 km and a 1000 kg warhead, to the Rodong-1 in 1990 with a 900-km range and identical warhead, and finally the Taepodong-2, the technological basis for the Unha rocket which successfully lofted a satellite into space on December 12, 2012, it is evident that Pyongyang’s scientists and engineers remain determined to advance their nation’s missile forces. It can thus be safely assumed that they will be equally committed to their SLBM project.

Political Dedication and Resource Allocation

As noted above, Pyongyang will continue to prioritize the development of ballistic missiles for as long as the Kim regime is in charge. Based on the late Kim Jong-il’s governing policy of Songun, in which the military is used as the principal source of political power in order to ensure regime security – a policy that endures under his son, Kim Jong-un – the development of North Korea’s land-based and now submarine-borne missiles will continue to be funded and supported by all the human talent and material resources the DPRK is able to muster. From the perspective of the younger Kim and his father, missiles and nuclear warheads form two halves of the deterrence against any U.S. or foreign plan to bring about regime change via military force, and are consequently given priority over other concerns like economic restructuring or civilian welfare.

Fundamentally, it helps to understand that North Korea is arguably functioning with a wartime economy that has more in common with that of Germany during World War Two rather than any socialist client state under Soviet influence during the Cold War. Correspondingly, Berlin’s focus on the development of Wunderwaffe, or wonder weapons like the V-1 flying bomb (the first operational cruise missile) and the V-2 rocket (the first operational ballistic missile), are paralleled in the DPRK by the latter’s dedication to the building of land- and sea-based ballistic missile capabilities.

A Suggested Policy Stance

Insofar as Pyongyang appears determined to acquire a “triad” of delivery systems (land based missiles, bombers and sea-borne missiles) carrying either conventional warheads or WMD (either nuclear or chemical warheads) payloads in order to preserve a “second strike” deterrence capability, it would behoove the U.S., South Korea and Japan to cultivate a healthy respect for North Korean efforts to nurture the latter’s missile development, of which the Bukkeukseong-1 SLBM is the most recent example.

Accordingly, the best that Washington, Seoul and Tokyo can do is to adopt a two pronged strategy of utilizing their collective international influence to ensure the proper enforcement of the United Nations Security Council resolutions barring all transfers of missile or heavy weapons related technology to the DPRK, (Pyongyang apparently reverse engineered its SLBM from a few SS-N-5s acquired at the end of the Cold War), while bolstering their military defenses against North Korean ballistic missiles. Towards this second priority, the U.S., South Korea and Japan should maintain a robust anti-submarine warfare presence in the region to counter any of the DPRK’s ballistic missile submarine deployments, while making national missile defense (the Korean Air and Missile Defense System of South Korea is an example) a top funding and implementation priority.

Nah Liang Tuang is an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

mzkitty · Dec 15, 2015

2m
Report: Russian cruise missile goes astray during test, hits block of flats in Nyenoks; no injuries - @BBCBreaking

---------------

Russian cruise missile hits flats in Arctic accident

22 minutes ago

Part of a Russian cruise missile hit a block of flats in the Russian Arctic, during a test that went wrong, but nobody was hurt, media report.

A fire broke out in the three-storey block in the village of Nyenoksa, but residents were evacuated in time.

The village is near a Russian naval base at Severodvinsk, in the far north-west. The missile was fired from a defence ministry test range.

Russia has fired cruise missiles at targets in Syria from the Caspian Sea.

Nyenoksa is by the White Sea, 40km (25 miles) west of Severodvinsk, and the test range is near the village.

Russian military investigators went to the scene after the missile impact, at about 11:00 Moscow time (08:00 GMT). Four flats and the building's roof were damaged.

The Caspian Sea missile salvoes were aimed at rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad's government forces.

When Russian warships first launched an attack from the Caspian in October, some 1,500km (930 miles) away from targets in Syria, US officials said four of the missiles had landed in Iran. There was no independent confirmation.

Russia said earlier this month that it had used a submarine in the Mediterranean to launch Kalibr cruise missiles at Raqqa, targeting so-called Islamic State (IS) militants.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35106935

WAR 12-12-2015-to-12-18-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

Senior Member

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

I give up.

I give up.

I give up.

I give up.

I give up.

I give up.

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

Deceased

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

On TB every waking moment

I give up.

Attachments

WAR 12-12-2015-to-12-18-2015_____THEWINDSofWAR