WAR 12-05-2015-to-12-11-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
(192) 11-14-2015-to-11-20-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...20-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(193) 11-21-2015-to-11-27-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...27-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(194) 11-28-2015-to-12-04-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...04-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-militants-idUSKBN0TO04620151205

World | Sat Dec 5, 2015 5:16am EST
Related: World

Malaysia arrests five with suspected IS, al-Qaeda links

KUALA LUMPUR

Malaysia's police said on Saturday that it had arrested five people, including a European employed as a teacher, on suspicion of links with militant groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.

Malaysia is on heightened alert after reports on Friday that ten Syrians linked to Islamic State entered neighboring Thailand in October to attack Russian interests.

Police chief Khalid Abu Bakar said in a statement that four of those arrested were foreign nationals and one was a Malaysian. The arrests were made between Nov. 17 and Dec. 1.

Among them was a 44-year-old European who was employed as a temporary teacher in the state of Penang, and had links with al-Qaeda and allegedly participated in militant activities in Afghanistan and Bosnia, the police said.

Three other suspects – a 31-year-old Indonesian man, a Malaysian and a Bangladeshi – were part of a cell linked to the Islamic State (IS) group and are were tasked with recruiting volunteers to take part in militant activities overseas.

The leader of the cell was the Indonesian who is said to have vowed allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi through Facebook in 2014.

"He, along with the Malaysian national, is suspected of acting as facilitator to organize individuals from Malaysia and some Southeast Asian countries to join the Islamic State in Syria," said Khalid.

Southeast Asia faces the threat of Islamic State-inspired attacks designed to "glamorize terrorism", a Malaysian minister said last month, voicing fears of battle-hardened fighters returning from Syria to launch Paris-style attacks.

In September, Malaysian police thwarted a plot to detonate bombs in Kuala Lumpur’s vibrant tourist area of Bukit Bintang.


(Reporting by Praveen Menon)
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-usa-turkey-idUSKBN0TO01T20151205

World | Fri Dec 4, 2015 9:51pm EST
Related: World, Russia, Turkey, Syria

Exclusive: U.S. puts request for bigger Turkish air role on hold

WASHINGTON | By Phil Stewart and Warren Strobel


Since Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet last week, the United States has quietly put on hold a long-standing request for its NATO ally to play a more active role in the U.S.-led air war against Islamic State.

The move, disclosed to Reuters by a U.S. official, is aimed at allowing just enough time for heightened Turkey-Russia tensions to ease. Turkey has not flown any coalition air missions in Syria against Islamic State since the Nov. 24 incident, two U.S. officials said.

The pause is the latest complication over Turkey's role to have tested the patience of U.S. war planners, who want a more assertive Turkish contribution -- particularly in securing a section of border with Syria that is seen as a crucial supply route for Islamic State.

As Britain starts strikes in Syria and France ramps up its role in the wake of last month's attacks on Paris by the extremist group, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter publicly appealed this week for a greater Turkish military role.

The top U.S. priority is for Turkey to secure its southern border with Syria, the first official said. U.S. concern is focused on a roughly 60-mile (98-km) stretch used by Islamic State to shuttle foreign fighters and illicit trade back and forth.

But the United States also wants to see more Turkish air strikes devoted to Islamic State, even as Washington firmly supports Ankara's strikes against Turkey's Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), viewed by both countries as a terrorist group.

Carter told a congressional hearing this week that most Turkish air operations have been targeted at the PKK rather than at Islamic State, but U.S. officials acknowledge some promising signs from Turkey, including moves to secure key border crossings.

For example, Turkish F-16 fighter jets last month joined an air operation to support Syrian rebels taking back two villages from Islamic State along the so-called Mara Line, a senior Obama administration official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The United States does not give data on the number or type of missions conducted by Turkish air force flights in Syria.

Turkey rejects any suggestion it is not playing its part in the fight against ISIL.

"We have taken part in at least half of the operations," a senior Turkish official told Reuters. "Apart from that, Turkey takes part in identifying targets and providing logistics and bases. We are in close cooperation with the U.S."

Russian President Vladimir Putin branded Turkey's shoot-down a war crime on Thursday and said Turkey would face further sanctions. Moscow has already banned some Turkish food imports as part of a wider package of retaliatory sanctions.

The United States hopes that tensions between Moscow and Ankara will ease quickly, allowing Turkey to take a more prominent role inside the U.S.-led coalition's air campaign, the first official said.

The Pentagon declined to comment on the status of Turkish flights since the shoot-down. Two Turkish officials declined to directly comment but stressed that Turkey remained part of the air coalition.

"For us nothing has changed," a senior Turkish official told Reuters.

U.S. officials stressed that overall coalition air operations had been unaffected by the tensions between Turkey and Russia.

There is debate within the Obama administration on how hard to push Turkey. U.S. officials broadly acknowledge its support has been vital to the U.S.-led campaign in Syria, allowing the coalition to stage strike missions out of a Turkish air base.

Turkey, for its part, has grown frustrated over the past few years at what it sees as indecision on the part of the United States and its Western allies, arguing that only Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's removal from power can bring lasting peace.


(Additional reporting by Nick Tattersall in Istanbul and Jonathan Landay in Washington; editing by Stuart Grudgings.)
 

Housecarl

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Hummm..........

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151204/ml-syria-opposition-c6454f63f8.html

Saudi Arabia to host Syrian opposition ahead of peace talks

Dec 4, 2:34 PM (ET)
By BASSEM MROUE

(AP) In this April 17, 2012, file photo, Hassan Abdul-Azim, head of the Syrian...
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BEIRUT (AP) — Saudi Arabia is hosting Syrian opposition groups and many of the main rebel factions next week in an effort to come up with a unified front ahead of peace talks with representatives of the government in Damascus, scheduled to begin early next year.

The meeting is the first of its kind in the Sunni kingdom, which is a main backer of the Syrian opposition, underscoring how the internationally backed effort is the most serious yet in attempts to end the nearly five-year civil war. The conflict has killed more than a quarter of a million people and triggered a refugee crisis of massive proportions.

The rebel factions' participation points to the evolution in the position of many of them that long rejected any negotiations with Damascus as long President Bashar Assad was in power. Now they are on board to attempt a process that the United States and its allies say must eventually lead to Assad's removal — but with no timetable for it.

At the three-day gathering that starts next Tuesday in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, the factions will try to form a unified opposition delegation and a platform regarding what is meant to be a transitional period in Syria, officials who were invited said.

(AP) In this Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015, file photo, president of the Syrian...
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"We will be negotiating Assad's departure," said Mustafa Osso, the vice president of the Syrian National Coalition, the main Western-backed opposition group. "If this regime stays, violence will continue in Syria and there will be no stability," he said, speaking from Turkey. Osso will be part of what he said will be a 20-member delegation from the coalition at the Riyadh meeting.

A peace plan agreed to last month by 20 nations meeting in Vienna sets a Jan. 1 deadline for the start of negotiations between Assad's government and opposition groups. The plan says nothing about Assad's future, but states that "free and fair elections would be held pursuant to the new constitution within 18 months."

Among the nations that took part in the Vienna meeting were the United States, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Russia and Iran have been Assad's strongest supporters since the crisis began in March 2011 while Saudi Arabia and Turkey have backed factions trying to remove the Syrian president from power.

In Tehran, Iran's deputy foreign minister denounced the planned gathering in Saudi Arabia, the official IRNA news agency reported.

"The action will divert Vienna political efforts on Syria from its natural path and will drive the Vienna talks toward failure," Hossein Amir Abdollahian was quoted as saying.

Most of the main rebel factions have been invited to the Riyadh talks, including the Western-backed Free Syrian Army. Also among the invited are two of the biggest — Jaysh al-Islam and the ultraconservative Ahrar al-Sham group that has been for months trying to improve its image and market itself as a moderate faction, said Ibrahim Hamidi, a journalist who covers Syrian affairs for the Saudi-owned newspaper Al Hayat.

Spokesmen for Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham did not respond to requests for comment on whether the groups would attend.

"The time for serious negotiations to find a solution has begun," Hamidi said.

But in a sign of the splits within Assad's opponents, no Kurdish factions have been invited, including the main Kurdish militia known as the YPG. The YPG has been the most successful group fighting the Islamic State group and captured scores of towns and villages from the extremists over the past year.

Saleh Muslim, the president of the largest Kurdish group, the Democratic Union Party or PYD, said his group has also not been invited. He said Turkey, which has broad fears of Kurdish ambitions, likely pressured Saudi Arabia not to invite them or the YPG.

"We would love to participate. The conference is related to Syria's future and we are a main part of Syria and its future," Muslim said.

Kurds are the largest ethnic minority in Syria, making up more than 10 percent of the country's pre-war population of 23 million people. There are Kurds, including Osso, in some other factions that will attend.

Among those invited is Hassan Abdul-Azim, a veteran opposition figure in Syria who leads the Syria-based National Coordination Body for Democratic Change. He said that his group will enter talks with the Syrian government "without pre-conditions."

"The fate of the Syrian president will be decided during the negotiations," Abdul-Azim said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last month that the Syrian government has already put forward to the U.N. special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, the makeup of its delegation to the upcoming negotiations. Lavrov last week said peace talks cannot go ahead until all parties involved agree on which groups should be listed as terrorist and which as Syria's legitimate opposition.

Also ahead of the peace talks, Jordan is to oversee a process identifying which militant groups in Syria should be considered as terrorists and thus should be prevented from participating in any negotiations. That is to be completed by the time the political process between the government and opposition begins in January.

Separately, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Thursday that the world body is working to launch talks between Syria's warring parties and start a nationwide cease-fire in the country in early January. He also said he expects the third round of talks on the "Vienna process" to take place in New York but wouldn't confirm a Dec. 18 date, though that date is being considered, according to U.N. diplomats.

Also Thursday, Iyad Ameen Madani, the secretary general of the world's largest body of Muslim nations, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, appealed to the Syrian opposition leaders to "close ranks and make the legitimate demands of the Syrian people for change, reform and reconstruction of institutions.

---

Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Aya Batrawy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this report.
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151204/af-mali-extremists-830298488f.html

Mali extremists join with al-Qaida-linked North Africa group

Dec 4, 4:36 PM (ET)

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — A leader of al-Qaida's North Africa group says Islamic extremist group Al-Mourabitoun is joining it, describing the recent attack on a luxury hotel in Bamako as their declaration of unity, an organization that tracks jihadi websites said Friday.

SITE Intelligence Group said al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb leader Abu Musab Abdul Wadud confirmed the unification in an audio speech distributed Thursday.

SITE also said that Al-Mourabitoun later released an audio speech saying the Mali-based group is joining the al-Qaida branch.

Al-Mourabitoun was the first Islamic extremist group to claim responsibility for the Nov. 20 Radisson Blu attack that killed 20 people. It said it worked with al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. Other extremist groups also declared responsibility.

Malian authorities said they arrested two men over the attack.

Al-Mourabitoun, or the Sentinels, was formed by Algerian militant Moktar Belmoktar, a former leader in AQIM. It includes nationals from countries across the Sahara.
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151204/af--nigeria-boy_bomber-17dd309e4f.html

Military says boy trained as suicide bomber against refugees

Dec 4, 11:48 AM (ET)
By MICHELLE FAUL and HARUNA UMAR

(AP) In this Friday, Oct. 30, 2015 file photo, people look at a poster featuring...
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ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — Women and even girls have been used by Islamic extremists in Nigeria as suicide bombers. Now, the military says it has detained an 11-year-old boy who is currently describing to interrogators how Boko Haram trained him to be a suicide bomber and attack the biggest refugee camp in war-torn northeast Nigeria.

The boy is suspect No. 82 on a poster showing photographs of 100 wanted Boko Haram militants, according to army spokesman Col. Sani Kukasheka Usman.

"The child said he was sneaked into the camp as a displaced child to get familiarized with the people and wait for the day he would be prompted to carry (out) his own suicide attack," Usman said in a statement.

He said the boy was arrested Tuesday by troops guarding Dalori refugee camp in Maiduguri, the northeastern city that is the birthplace of Nigeria's homegrown Islamic extremist group.

He told interrogators that three other children who trained with him already have blown themselves up in suicide attacks.

Usman did not respond to an emailed list of questions and The Associated Press was not immediately able to get access to the child to verify the military's account.

The boy is still being interrogated, in the Hausa language that is all he speaks, at a military camp in Maiduguri on Friday, according to an officer at the camp who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to reporters.

Hundreds of people have died in recent months in suicide bombings in mosques, market places, restaurants, bus stations and other crowded areas.

Many bombers are young women and children — one girl bomber reportedly looked as young as 7. A military bomb expert has told the AP that some suicide bombs have been detonated remotely. That has led to speculation that Boko Haram is turning kidnap victims into unwilling weapons.

Usman identified the 11-year-old boy as a resident of Bama, a town 45 miles (72 kilometers) northeast of Maiduguri. Boko Haram had seized Bama in September 2014 and a year ago published a video showing gunmen mowing down civilians lying face down in the town, executing them as "infidels." Nigeria's air force and army reported destroying several Boko Haram camps around Bama in August, and rescuing 178 people, including 101 children, held captive by the extremists.

One video published by Boko Haram shows children training to shoot with assault rifles.

Usman said the 11-year-old has already identified a Boko Haram member among adults in Dalori refugee camp, who has been arrested. Usman said this highlights the need for proper screening of refugees. Dalori is the biggest refugee camp in the northeast, holding some 30,000 people.

The boy is at least the fourth person arrested since the military five weeks ago began distributing a photographic collage of 100 wanted Boko Haram militants. The 11-year-old boy is shown in the bottom right-hand corner of the poster, a cap covering his head, his arms raised in prayer.

No names were attached since most images are screen grabs from videos seized in raids on Boko Haram camps or published on the Internet by the extremists, Usman has said.

---

Faul reported from Lagos, Nigeria.
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151204/af-central-african-republic-violence-ae6164d38b.html

C. African Republic attack kills 8, wounds UN peacekeeper

Dec 4, 3:55 PM (ET)
By CARLEY PETESCH

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — An attack in Central African Republic by Muslim combatants led to the killing of eight civilians in a camp for the displaced along with five fighters, the United Nations said Friday.

U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said U.N. peacekeepers intervened in Thursday night's attack which also injured several displaced people and two ex-Seleka Muslim combatants, and slightly injured a peacekeeper.

Central African Republic descended into conflict in 2013 when Muslim rebels overthrew the Christian president. That ushered in a brutal reign. When the rebel leader left power the following year, a swift and horrific backlash against Muslim civilians ensued, and violence has continued.

The attack comes days after Pope Francis wrapped up his three-nation Africa tour in Central African Republic, calling for peace and Muslim-Christian reconciliation.

It took place in Ngakobo, about 60 kilometers (37 miles) south of the central town of Bambari.

The U.N.'s humanitarian coordinator in Central African Republic, Aurelien A. Agbenonci, condemned the attack in a statement and called on feuding parties to preserve the security of safe havens.

Haq told reporters at U.N. headquarters in New York that the U.N. mission in Central African Republic also reported several incidents involving the ex-Seleka rebels and the anti-Balaka Christian militia that have raised tensions in Bambari.

He said anti-Balaka members looted and damaged a truck heading from Bambari to the capital Bangui on Thursday, but U.N. peacekeepers intervened forcing the attackers to withdraw and apprehending the alleged leader.

---

Associated Press writer Edith M. Lederer contributed to this report from the United Nations.
 

Housecarl

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151205/ml--yemen-b3f717fb1f.html

Yemen's president meets UN envoy in Aden

Dec 5, 1:40 PM (ET)
By AHMED AL-HAJ

(AP) In this photo provided by the Yemeni Presidency, Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour...
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SANAA, Yemen (AP) — Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi met with a U.N. envoy in Aden on Saturday to agree on peace talks with Shiite Houthi rebels set to begin in mid-December, officials from the president's office said.

It was the first such meeting in the southern port city since pro-government forces drove the Houthis out of Aden earlier this year with the help of a Saudi-led and U.S.-backed coalition.

The conflict, which pits the Houthis and army units loyal to a former president against a loose alliance of pro-government forces, southern separatists and other militants, has killed at least 5,700 people since March, when the fighting escalated and the Saudi-led air campaign began, according to the U.N.

Previous peace efforts have ended in failure, with the government demanding the implementation of a U.N. resolution calling on the Houthis to lay down arms seized from the state and withdraw from territory, including the capital. The Houthis want broader negotiations on the country's political future.

(AP) Smoke rises after a Saudi-led airstrike hits an army base in Sanaa, Yemen, Saturday,...
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At Saturday's meeting, U.N. envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed presented a draft plan to implement the U.N. resolution, the officials said, without providing details.

The draft will also be presented on Sunday in Oman to leaders of the party of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is allied with the Houthis, party official Yasser al-Awaidi told The Associated Press.

Yemen's powerful al-Qaida affiliate has exploited the chaos to seize territory in the south and east of the country, including a number of cities.

On Saturday, masked gunmen on motorcycles carried out separate attacks on vehicles in Aden, killing Col. Aqeel al-Khodr, a military intelligence official who supports Hadi, and Judge Mohsen Alwan, who was known for sentencing al-Qaida militants. Three other people were killed in the attack on Alwan, security officials said.

No one immediately claimed the attacks, which bore the hallmarks of al-Qaida.

All government officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to brief reporters.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
12.04 BREAKING: Turkey Invades Kurdish Iraq to Allegedly “Train” Kurdish Troops
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...dish-Iraq-to-Allegedly-“Train”-Kurdish-Troops

12.05 Turkey Seizes 4 Russian Ships in Black Sea to retaliate against Russian Aggression!
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...k-Sea-to-retaliate-against-Russian-Aggression!

12.05 BREAKING NEWS: Turkey Goes Insane – Will Establish Permanent Base in Mosul, Iraq
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...–-Will-Establish-Permanent-Base-in-Mosul-Iraq
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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/w...rkish-troops-angers-iraqi-officials.html?_r=0

Middle East

Influx of Turkish Troops Angers Iraqi Officials

By TIM ARANGO
DEC. 5, 2015

ISTANBUL — Turkey has sent more troops, along with armored vehicles and tanks, to northern Iraq to support a longstanding mission to train Kurdish and Sunni Arab forces in the fight against the Islamic State, touching off an uproar in Baghdad, where officials called the move a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

The troop movements on the outskirts of Mosul apparently came in recent days and were done in coordination with the autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq, but not with the central government in Baghdad. They prompted the Iraqi foreign ministry to summon the Turkish ambassador in protest on Saturday and demand that the forces withdraw from Iraq.

In a statement, the foreign ministry called the Turkish troop movements a hostile act and said they had been made “without the knowledge of the Iraqi central government,” adding, “This is considered a violation and a breach of the sovereignty of the country.” Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and President Fuad Masum also voiced objections.

Days earlier, Mr. Abadi, who came to power last year with the strong support of the United States, made a similarly tough statement in reaction to the United States’ plans to deploy Special Operations forces to Iraq to conduct raids against Islamic State targets. He wrote on Facebook, “Iraq doesn’t need foreign ground troops,” and added, “This will be considered an act of aggression.”

The reactions of the Iraqi authorities to the growing military role of the United States and Turkey inside Iraq highlighted Mr. Abadi’s weakness as he seeks to balance his relationships with the West and Iran, which backs powerful militias in Iraq. Some of the leaders of those militias are popular on the Iraqi street and have sought to undermine Mr. Abadi, saying they will fight any foreign troops on Iraqi soil.

In an interview on Saturday, Hakim al-Zamili, the head of Parliament’s security committee and a Shiite militia leader, said the Iraqi military, if necessary, should strike the Turkish positions in the north.


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“I have sent a letter to Abadi and told him that Iraqi sovereignty must be respected, and we have weapons and F-16 planes and must use them to hit the Turkish military force in Mosul, so no one will dare violate the sovereignty of Iraq,” he said.

While a military confrontation seems unlikely, the controversy highlights the extent to which Iraq is divided, essentially split between areas controlled by the Islamic State, the northern Kurdish region, and a Shiite-dominated zone that includes Baghdad and the south and that represents the extent of the central government’s control.

For instance, Turkey has established its small military presence in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq without the approval of Baghdad. For nearly a year, it has trained a small group of largely Sunni Arab fighters. They are mostly former policemen from Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, which fell to the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, last year.

Continue reading the main story

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Why Cutting a Crucial ISIS Route May Not Stop Flow of Fighters and Supplies

The ease of creating roads through the desert could limit the effectiveness of the offensive to cut off a key ISIS supply route.

OPEN Graphic

Turkish officials played down the new troop deployment, saying it was a routine move to support a continuing training mission in the north.

“No one should interpret our help in a wrong way,” Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey said Saturday, in remarks reported by the semiofficial Anadolu News Agency. “Turkey does not have an eye on another country’s soil, and she would never have. Turkey’s struggle is against terror and terror organizations.” The news agency said 150 new troops had been deployed.

Baghdad has been aware of Turkey’s presence but chose to publicly challenge it only now — underscoring, analysts say, the increasing pressure Mr. Abadi is facing from Iran and its proxies, including Iraq’s former prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. In a report published last month, Ayham Kamel, the director for the Middle East and North Africa at the political risk firm Eurasia Group, predicted that Mr. Abadi would likely be ousted sometime next year.

Continue reading the main story

Graphic

ISIS Is Likely Responsible for Nearly 1,000 Civilian Deaths Outside Iraq and Syria

At least a dozen countries have had attacks since the Islamic State, or ISIS, began to pursue a global strategy in the summer of 2014.


OPEN Graphic

In the case of the United States, American officials say they negotiated with Mr. Abadi about the new deployments of Special Forces and believe his recent comments in defense of Iraqi sovereignty were made for domestic political reasons.

Still, Mr. Abadi’s increasingly weak position in the face of Iranian pressure complicates matters for the United States as it considers increasing its military presence in Iraq to fight the Islamic State.

While the deal reached by the West and Iran to curb Iran’s nuclear program raised hopes that Washington and Tehran could more closely coordinate campaigns against the Islamic State in Iraq, that now appears unlikely. The heads of powerful Iranian-backed militias have said they are willing to fight any new American troops in Iraq, as they did during the long American occupation after 2003.

Rather than the United States’ and Iran’s becoming partners in the fight against the Islamic State, Iran’s presence in Iraq is seen as a constraint on the American military’s role there.

Kirk H. Sowell, an analyst based in Amman, Jordan, and editor of the newsletter Inside Iraqi Politics, wrote in an email, “The sending of ground forces to Iraq in any appreciable numbers would almost certainly open a new front in the war, with U.S. troops fighting Shia militias instead of Islamic State.”




Falih Hassan contributed reporting from Baghdad, and Safak Timur from Istanbul.

A version of this article appears in print on December 6, 2015, on page A14 of the New York edition with the headline: Influx of Turkish Troops Angers Iraqi Officials. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
 
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mzkitty

I give up.
WTF is this supposed to mean? (It's a muzzie, after all)


6m
Adviser to Iran's top leader calls fate of Syria's Assad a 'red line' - @Reuters

12/06/2015 08:13

DUBAI - A top advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader on Sunday said the future of Syria's President Bashar Assad could only be determined by the Syrian people and this was a "red line" for Tehran.

"Bashar al-Assad is the Islamic Republic of Iran's red line because he was elected president by the Syrian people," said Ali Akbar Velayati, the top foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"The Syrian people must decide their own fate, and nobody outside Syria's borders can choose for the Syrian people," he added.

http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/...-calls-fate-of-Syrias-Assad-a-red-line-436424
 

Housecarl

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http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...turning-screws-washingtons-sub-deal/76676188/

Taiwan Turning the Screws on Washington’s Sub Deal

By Wendell Minnick 4:42 p.m. EST December 5, 2015

WASHINGTON — In 2001, President George W. Bush's administration released the largest arms package to Taiwan since the closing of US military bases on the island in 1979. The deal included four Kidd-class destroyers, 12 P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft and eight diesel-electric submarines.

Since then, the package has been completed except for the submarine offer. The many sticking points include the fact the US has not built diesel-electric attack submarines since the last Barbel-class was finished in 1959. But that has not stopped Taiwan's Navy from pushing forward on an official release via the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) office before beginning an indigenous build program.

Taiwan’s frustrations with the US FMS process it began 14 years ago are growing, leading it to pursue an indigenous construction effort that it hopes will provide some tactical and strategic leverage against China’s rapidly growing naval modernization efforts.

On Dec. 1, the Washington-based Project 2049 Institute sponsored a conference on the topic with Taiwan's Rear Adm. David T.W. Yang presenting the keynote speech. The conference, “A Deep Dive: Taiwan’s Future Submarine Program,” included commentary by Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute.

Stokes said the US FMS effort was frozen in 2007 due to a number of factors: political considerations and U.S.-China relations; domestic debates in Taiwan over pursuing an FMS program or an indigenous build; perceived cost effectiveness in the US of building only eight subs; US operational considerations regarding waterspace management as more countries in Asia procure submarines; and past US Navy institutional concerns over fears in the nuclear submarine community that cheaper diesel electric subs might be forced upon them during future budget cuts.

It should be noted that Stokes served as the Pentagon’s team chief and senior country director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs during the 2001 arms release. He is described by many within the US and Taiwan defense industries as the architect of the original arms package and continues to be a major advocate of Taiwan’s acquisition of submarines.

Yang, who is a military attaché at Taiwan’s de facto embassy, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, told the conference that Taiwan has improved its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities with the procurement of the P-3 aircraft, but additional enhancements are required. “The training programs, however, failed to meet requirements because of limitations of the aging submarines ... and Taiwan’s defensive capabilities are adversely affected.”

Taiwan's only two combat-operational submarines are Dutch-built Zwaardvis-class subs acquired in the late 1980s. It also has two of the oldest submarines in operation — two Guppy-class submarines acquired in the early 1970s that served at the end of World War II. These submarines are described as training platforms, not operational ones.

Yang said the Guppys should be replaced and the Zwaardvis “urgently” need to be refurbished. He said the FMS program has been “suspended through the ‘interagency review’ phase for over a decade ... [and now] Taiwan has been urging the US to accelerate the FMS process to provide Taiwan with the urgently needed submarines.”

Yang said Taiwan has created the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program to fulfill its requirements. IDS will be built locally with some foreign, including American, assistance.

“In consideration of the longstanding security cooperation with the US, acquiring submarines from the US government will remain as the priority option," he said. "Until there is a concrete response from the US, a dual-track ‘FMS-plus-IDS’ policy will be implemented.”

Yang admitted that Taiwan was “in communication” with Japan for a possible deal for Soryu-class submarines. Japan’s export defense restrictions have been eased, and Japan and Australia are currently working on a joint submarine program.

Bob Nugent of AMI International, a Bremerton, Washington–based naval market analysis and advisory firm, said he could “envision a scenario where there is an outright sale to Taiwan of Japanese submarines.” The current price is around $500 million a hull for the Soryu, and that includes airindependent propulsion — significantly less than the US offer estimated at $800 million for just the design stage.

China and Japan are bickering over control of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which Japan controls and China claims as its territory. Additional friction was created in 2013 when China announced an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea, which included the airspace over the Senkakus. Increased Chinese fighter and surveillance flights into Japanese air space in recent years have also rattled Tokyo.

Both Taiwan and Japan face an enormous Chinese submarine fleet that now numbers over 70 submarines. Yang called the growth “aggressive.”

Email: wminnick@defensenews.com
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151206/eu--poland-nuclear_weapons-cb364c6918.html

Poland denies considering request for nuclear weapons

Dec 6, 3:11 PM (ET)

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland's Defense Ministry denied on Sunday that it is considering asking for access to nuclear weapons through a NATO program under which the U.S. places them on the territory of certain allied states.

On Saturday, Deputy Defense Minister Tomasz Szatkowski said that the ministry was currently discussing whether to ask to take part in NATO's so-called Nuclear Sharing program to improve the country's defenses. He made the comments in an interview with the private broadcaster Polsat.

But the Defense Ministry issued a statement on its website on Sunday denying that discussions are underway.

"Within the Defense Ministry there is presently no work underway concerning the accession of our country to the NATO Nuclear Sharing program," the statement said.

The 28-member NATO has three nuclear powers, the U.S., France and Britain, but only the U.S. has provided weapons to allies for nuclear sharing. Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey have hosted nuclear weapons as part of the program.
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151206/ml--libya-b376529cfd.html

Libya's rival governments shun UN, sign separate peace deal

Dec 6, 5:53 PM (ET)
By RAMI MUSA

BENGHAZI, Libya (AP) — Lawmakers from Libya's rival parliaments have reached a power-sharing agreement in Tunisia, shunning a U.N.-brokered deal to avoid the "foreign intervention" tainting it, an internationally recognized government representative said Sunday.

However, it appeared the deal had failed to gain broad acceptance by either side, with representatives from both parliaments coming out to slam the newly minted agreement.

Libya slid into chaos following the 2011 toppling and killing of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi. The oil-rich country has been torn between an internationally recognized government in the far east and Islamist-backed government in the capital, Tripoli.

The U.N.'s unity government deal, which is aimed at ending the conflict, was drafted by its former envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, who accepted a job last month from the United Arab Emirates. The country backs some members of the internationally recognized government, casting doubts on the international body's neutrality.

Sunday's move seemed to splinter the north African country's governing bodies even further, with members from both sides coming out to praise or criticize the deal.

"We believe this is a step on the right track away from intervention of foreign entities and manipulation," prominent internationally recognized parliament member Abu Bakr Beira said in the eastern city of Tobruk, where his parliament is based.

Meanwhile, his parliament's spokesman told The Associated Press the new deal does not represent the body.

"This is an individual effort and a childish attempt to get out of signing the real peace deal," Faraj Abu Hashim said.

If successful, Sunday's deal would see the formation of two 10-member committees, with both camps enjoying equal representation. One committee would name a prime minister and two deputies_one from each body— in the next two weeks. The trio would then form the unity Cabinet. The other committee would draft a constitution and prepare for parliamentary elections within two years.

Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi received the chief negotiators Sunday night after the talks and urged the negotiating parties to maintain contacts with the U.N. envoy for Libya.

"Tunisia welomes this step, which helps to bring an end to division in Libya and allow this brother country to re-establish unity and assure conditions of security and stability on its territory," the president's office said in a statement after the low-profile talks in the Tunis suburb of Gammarth.

According to the media offices of both parties, nearly half the members of each body are still in favor of the U.N. deal despite Leon's departure, albeit with conditions. The U.N. has repeatedly refused to reconsider changing the proposal.

The U.N. deal due for endorsement next week in Rome had been rejected by the internationally recognized government because it would have given the unity government the power to fire all senior Libyan officials not unanimously approved by its members — a clause they interpreted as an attempt to remove their fiercely anti-Islamist army chief, Gen. Khalifa Hifter, whose forces have been battling Islamist militias nationwide for over a year.

The Islamist authorities, on the other hand, were unhappy with the deal because it did not provide sufficient guarantees that Islamic law will be applied, Islamist officials said.

Western officials have urged the Libyan governments to act quickly and reach a deal, warning that the instability in the country was giving room for extremist groups like the Islamic State to expand.

Libya's chaos has opened the door to a surge of migrants and refugees who set off from its coast for Europe in often rickety boats operated by smugglers. Many have died on the journey.

---

Bouazza ben Bouazza in Tunis contributed to this report.
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151206/as-south-china-sea-chinese-airstrips-71e0ca3350.html

New China airstrips a potential headache for neighbors, US

Dec 6, 1:49 AM (ET)
By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN

(AP) In this Monday, May 11, 2015, file photo, this aerial photo taken through a...
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BEIJING (AP) — China's campaign of island building in the South China Sea might soon quadruple the number of airstrips available to the People's Liberation Army in the highly contested and strategically vital region.

That could be bad news for other regional contenders, especially the U.S., the Philippines and Vietnam.

The island construction work that is creating vast amounts of new acreage by piling sand on top of coral reefs is now moving into the construction stage, with buildings, harbors and, most importantly, runways appearing in recent months.

China now operates one airfield at Woody Island in the Paracel island chain, and satellite photos show what appears to be work on two, possibly three, additional airstrips on newly built islands in the Spratly archipelago to the east.

(AP) In this Monday, May 11, 2015, file photo, the alleged on-going reclamation of...
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The bases could have a "significant impact on the local balance of power" by helping bolster the forward presence of Chinese coast guard and navy forces, said Euan Graham, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia.

As with most South China Sea developments, China has remained opaque about its plans for the island airstrips. At a recent monthly briefing, Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian declined to say how many China planned to build or what their purpose would be, repeating only that all military infrastructure was "purely for defensive purposes."

Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea and its islands and has created seven new features in the Spratlys since last year that are permanently above water totaling more than 800 hectares (2,000 acres) in area, according to satellite photos collected by U.S. government agencies and private groups including the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

While China insists its island building works are justified and don't constitute a threat to stability, further militarization of the region seems assured given China's increasingly robust assertions of its territorial claims.

Those perceptions were reinforced with the deployment in October of advanced J-11BH/BHS fighters of the navy air force to Woody Island that was revealed online in China in October. China's military has declined to comment on the reports.

(AP) In this Sept. 17, 2015, file photo, Adm. Harry B. Harris, Jr., commander of...
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The island's 2.4-kilometer (1.49-mile) long runway will soon be eclipsed by one more than 3 kilometers (10,000 feet) long on the reclaimed island built atop Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratlys, the satellite photos show. Another runway is being built on Subi Reef, with signs of similar work underway on nearby Mischief Reef.

Patrols by fighter jets based on the islands, most likely temporarily given the salty climate and frequent storms, could serve to intimidate other claimants, especially the Philippines and Vietnam. That could also complicate regular operations by U.S. forces which insist on freedom of navigation and overflight over the entire sea.

"In periods of tension, the intimidation value of air patrols from the islands would be considerable," Graham said.

The airfields would allow Chinese aircraft to refuel, repair and if necessary, rearm without having to fly the more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) to the nearest Chinese air base on Hainan island, said Hans Kristensen, a China security expert with the Federation of American Scientists.

They would also be highly vulnerable to bombing in an actual conflict, although their presence alone would require additional planning and effort by opponents.

(AP) In this Friday, Dec. 4, 2015 file photo, Philippine presidential candidate...
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Short of that, the issue grows murkier and more troublesome, especially if China were to announce a zone of air control over all or part of the South China Sea. In that case, the airstrips could be launching points for patrols, enforcement operations and possibly strikes.

China announced an initial air defense identification zone over much of the East China Sea in late 2013, a designation the U.S., Japan and others refused to recognize.

In early December, China conducted what its air force spokesman Shen Jinke described as the latest "routine patrol" through the zone, featuring aircraft including H-6K long-range bombers, fighter jets and early warning aircraft.

Questioned on plans for a South China Sea zone, Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said that would depend on threats to China's interests and security.

"Therefore we will take into consideration a number of factors in making the decision," Wu said.

Other countries also operate airstrips on their South China Sea holdings, but their size and level of sophistication are dwarfed by China's new developments.

Vietnam's strip on Spratly island is just 550 meters (1.8 feet), just long enough to accommodate slow-moving cargo and surveillance planes. Those operated by the Philippines on Thitu Island, also known as Pagasa, and Taiwan on Itu Aba, or Taiping Island, and Malaysia on Swallow Reef, are about twice as long, allowing them to land fighters as well.

Yet, only Fiery Cross Reef is long enough to accommodate bombers like the H-6K, whose air launched cruise missiles increase its destructive power.

Lying astride busy sea lanes, rich fisheries and a potential wealth of mineral deposits, the Chinese airfields would also boost China's position over strategic resources it craves to fuel economic growth.

The new airstrips will also come in handy as China develops its aircraft carrier program, particularly for training pilots in simulated night landings or to recover planes in difficult conditions.

However, their usefulness is constrained by the need for large amounts of jet fuel on hand, along with the need to reinforce strips built on sand to handle bombers and other heavy aircraft.

"If we start to see satellite evidence of fuel storage going in on a large scale in the artificial islands, that will be the clearest indicator that China is planning to develop them as active air bases," Graham said.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-di...-nuclear-war-and-the-korean-peninsula/5493862

The Division of Eurasia: Threats of Nuclear War and the Korean Peninsula

By Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya

Global Research, December 06, 2015


Region: Asia, Russia and FSU, USA

Theme: US NATO War Agenda

In-depth Report: NORTH KOREA, Nuclear War

No-Dong Medium Range Ballistic Missile

The following article was presented in Berlin, Germany at the Second International Conference on Peace and Prosperity in Korea on November 25, 2015. The paper deals with Northeast Asian security from a broader global lens where Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula are strategically interlocked to the other regions of Eurasia.

The US has pushed for the destabilization of the countries and economies of these regions in Europe and Asia. In this regard, the division of the Korean Peninsula and the threat of a nuclear war igniting between Pyongyang and the US are directly tied to Washington’s “active program of forceful intervention to prevent European or Asiatic unification” in Eurasia that has ushered the “Pivot to Asia” and the militarization of Japan and the Asia-Pacific as part of Washington’s strategy to encircle China.

Themes of security in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula cannot be viewed as secluded issues from the rest of Asia, the Eurasia landmass, and, even more broadly, the rest of the world.

Northeast Asia’s security and Korean security must be examined within the framework of the international rivalries and power politics taking place between the so-called “Great Powers.” Therefore, Northeast Asian and inter-Korean security must be analyzed in consideration of the United State of America’s “Asian pivot” or “pivot to Asia” and Washington’s strategic objectives vis-à-vis the People’s Republic of China and the geopolitical shift(s) being brought about by Eurasian integration and Beijing’s New Silk Road(s) (or “One Belt, One Road”) policy.

Examining the Asia-Pacific

Although there is a plethora of different definitions for the Asia-Pacific region, Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula are part of this broader region that may either include or exclude the Pacific countries of the Americas, Oceania (including the region of Australasia), Russia, and all of Asia. The Asia-Pacific is roughly analogous to the Pacific Rim. This is why the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, which was established in 1989, includes the United States, Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru as members.

Northeast Asia and specifically the Korean Peninsula are strategically important for the US strategy in Eurasia, which is influenced by the US strategist Nicolas Spykan’s containment theory about the Rimland. US Pacific Command (USPACOM) was formed on this basis of this too.


Empirically, these unified combatant commands and the strategic fronts they support are aligned with classical Cold War containment doctrine and with its underlying doctrine of strategic incursion, which became visible in the post-Cold War era tied to the master of containment theory Nicholas Spykman’s concept of the Eurasian Rimland. Spykman’s work builds on Halford Mackinder’s calls to create a shatter-belt around the Eurasian Heartland and amidst Germany and Russia from the Baltic to the Aegean Seas. Spykman was one of the figures in the US that aligned containment with incursion—making US defensive strategy effectively strategically offensive. Spykman argued that relying on isolationism, based on reliance on the oceans as a protective barrier to invasion, was bound to fail (Nazemroaya 2012:270).

In an introduction to Spykman’s work, Frederick Sherwood Dunn explains that Spykman’s strategy has prompted the US government to adopt “an active program of forceful intervention to prevent European or Asiatic unification” (Ibid.:271). This is the rationale behind the partition of Germany in 1945. “Any proposal for the unification of Europe would tend to put [Europe] in a subordinate position to Germany (regardless of the legal provisions of the arrangement) since Germany, unless broken up into fragments, will still be the biggest nation on the continent,” Dun explains (Ibid.) He summarizes this by stating:


The most important single fact in the American security situation is the question of who controls the rimlands of Europe and Asia. Should these get into the hands of a single power or combination of powers hostile to the United States, the resulting encirclement would put us in a position of grave peril, regardless of the size of our army and navy. The reality of this threat has been dimly realized in the past; on the two recent occasions when a single power threatened to gain control of the European mainland, we have become involved in a war to stop it. But our efforts have been belated and have been carried out at huge cost to ourselves. Had we been fully conscious of the implications of our geographical location in the world, we might have adopted a foreign policy which would have helped to prevent the threat from arising in the first place (Ibid).

It is in this context, Northeast Asia is viewed by US strategists as a bridgehead of power projection into the Eurasian landmass from its eastern periphery. Japan, like Britain on the western side of Eurasia, is viewed as a base of sea or oceanic power for the US. Korea on the other hand is viewed as Washington’s eastern perch into Eurasia. This is part of a longstanding US strategy that even predates the Cold War, which saw the US government encourage the Japanese to invade Korea in 1905.

In 2011, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that Washington was going to begin concentrating on East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. Because of an article titled “America’s Pacific Century” that Hillary Clinton authored for the international relations magazine Foreign Policy, this US policy popularly became known as the “Pivot.” She argued that “Asia is critical to America’s future” and that the world’s balance of power would be decided in East Asia, and not Afghanistan, Iraq, or Southwest Asia (Clinton 2011). “One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore be to lock in a substantially increased investment — diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise — in the Asia-Pacific region,” she concluded (Ibid.). This is why the US would recalibrate and redirect its attention and resources towards East Asia.

Two years later, a report authored by the British think-tank Chatham House described Washington’s redeployment efforts in the Asia-Pacific region like this: “The United States government is in the early stages of a substantial national project: reorienting significant elements of its foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region and encouraging many of its partners outside the region to do the same” (Andrews and Campbell 2013:2). “The ‘strategic pivot’ or rebalancing, launched four years ago, is premised on the recognition that the lion’s share of the political and economic history of the 21st century will be written in the Asia-Pacific region,” the Chatham House report points out (Ibid.). In one way or another, what this analysis insinuates is that the nation that controls the Asia-Pacific region will be dominate globally.

The Chinese view Washington’s “Pivot to Asia” as a containment policy directed against them. As Clinton (2011) wrote in her article, “China represents one of the most challenging and consequential bilateral relationships the United States has ever had to manage.” In fact, aside from the Korean Peninsula, one of the two areas that the US has repeatedly designated as a security concern in the Asia-Pacific region is the South China Sea, which directly involved territorial claims and disputes between Beijing and Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

The US has been busy consolidating a military and security network in the Asia-Pacific that targets Beijing and which is part of its broader goal of subordinating China (Nazemroaya 2012: 175-191, 268-278, 343). Characteristically, this has been executed regionally by the US through a misleading approach. The militarization of the Asia-Pacific region is taking place under the banners of peace and stability the region. The region is actually being destabilized by both its increased militarization and by the the stoking of tensions in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula by the United States.

While Beijing prefers diplomacy and dialogue over territorial disputes, it has been forced into taking a defensive posture in its littoral zones in the South China Sea and East China Sea. The People’s Republic of China announced the establishment of the East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea in November 2013. Despite the fact that the US and its allies had all setup air defence zones decades before China, the response of Washington and its allies was to portray the move as an act of Chinese aggression and militarism. The Pentagon even deliberately and defiantly flew two B-52 bombers over the newly established ADIZ.

It is important to note that “China’s establishment of the zone is conducive to identifying aircraft and thus avoiding unexpected frictions, but takes on another implication in public opinion” (“B-52’s defiance”) In other words, the antagonism over the Chinese ADIZ is manufacturing tensions and being used to demonize Beijing in public opinion. Additionally, according to the Global Times (Ibid.), the Chinese ADIZ has triggered “a political row over the East China Sea because it overlaps with the Japanese ADIZ over the Diaoyu Islands.”

Washington Vilifies Pyongyang to Target Beijing

On November 15, 2014, in parallel to the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Brisbane, US President Barack Obama delivered a keynote speech to diplomats, policymakers, faculty members, and students at the University of Queensland Washington’s on policy in the Asia-Pacific. In his speech, Obama warned potential aggressors to never question the resolve or commitment of Washington to its regional allies in East Asia and Oceania. Although President Obama did not emphasize this directly or too much, everyone knew which countries he was talking about, and the media vividly filled in the blanks. While President Obama directly named the nuclear program and missile arsenal of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) as a regional threat in the Asia-Pacific region, he was careful in how he talked about the People’s Republic of China. Beijing was mentioned casually in terms of regional territorial disputes. Reference to Russia was short too. The Russian Federation was only named once and briefly when President Obama said the Russians were a threat to the world because of their actions in Eastern Europe, specifically Ukraine.

It is with the above understanding that the billing the mainstream media narrative gave to Obama’s University of Queensland speech was one that understood Washington’s commander-in-chief was talking tough against Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang, as the Asia-Pacific’s rogues. Unlike Obama’s speech, the names of these three countries were repeatedly named and more openly demonized in the media reports about the G20 Summit in Brisbane and Obama’s speech at the University of Queensland. Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang were either directly or tacitly been portrayed as some type of “Axis of Evil” in the Asia-Pacific region.

China was mentioned seventeen times throughout the body of the speech while the DPRK was mentioned twice and Russia once (Obama 2014). Even though Beijing was not directly or openly called an adversary in the speech, it was clear that the main US concern in the Asia-Pacific region is the Chinese. In reality, President Obama’s message was a US call to arms against the Chinese, which along with the Russians are Washington’s main global adversaries or rivals. US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter would make an omission of this on November 5, 2015; Carter would say that both the Chinese and Russians are endangering the US-dominated world order.

Although Pyongyang was thrown into the equation by Obama, the DPRK is merely a pretext for Washington to station the Pentagon’s forces and US nuclear assets in Northeast Asia and the southern portion of the Korean Peninsula and Japan. The objective of this is to target Beijing from its eastern seaboard, like Washington’s “Pivot to Asia” does. Under the justification of protecting Washington’s clients in the Republic of Korea (ROK), the Pentagon maintains Marines, soldiers, airmen, and sailors on standby for a nuclear war in the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

The US even has control over the ROK Armed Forces. Syngman Rhee, who was selected by the Pentagon to become the president of the ROK and flown into Seoul by the US military from Tokyo after the surrender of Japan in the Second World War, placed the ROK’s military under US control. Formally, the ROK would get control of its own military only by December 1994, but the US would maintain its influence and have undisputed control in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia (Su 2012:159). It was understood that in the event of a war that Washington will give the ROK military general command in Seoul their orders through the Pentagon. When this agreement was first revealed to the Korean people and world, it was said that this military arrangement between Washington and the ROK was not meant to last. It was supposed to be a Cold War precaution against the threat of a war with the DPRK that would only last until Seoul was ready to take charge of its own military affairs and security. Since then there has been anger and continuous protest by a vast spectrum of the Korean population in the ROK about the agreement giving the US operation command (OpCon) over the ROK’s military forces in a war. It has even become a campaign issue in South Korean politics.

The ROK-US agreement on operation command’s existence can only be justified through the continued vilification of the DPRK as a military threat to the ROK. With inter-Korean political dialogue and attempts at rapprochement between the DPRK and ROK, it has become harder to justify US control over the ROK’s military forces. In order for the agreement to continue, the DPRK has to be perceived as a threat and irrational. This is why there is an interest to depict the DPRK and its government as threats in the ROK.

In 2015, operational control was supposed to be transferred from the US back to the ROK. In October 2014, however, Washington and the ROK agreed to scrap “a long-standing time frame for Seoul to take control of its military in the event of war” in the Korean Peninsula (Schwartz). It was declared that the security question of operational control would be postponed until the mid-2020s. While it initially tried to ignore the issue, the Blue House in Seoul was forced to respond to public anger over the delay and violation of ROK President Park Geun-hye’s campaign promise to transfer wartime operational control of the ROK military from the Pentagon to Seoul. “This is something that should be viewed rationally and realistically from the perspective of national security. It is not a violation of Park’s campaign pledge,” the Blue House’s spokesperson Min Kyung-wook argued (Seok and Park). In November 12, less than a year earlier, Park had pledged during a press conference for her presidential election campaign to prepare for the OpCon transfer without delay if she was elected as the president of the ROK (Ibid.).

The US does not want to surrender operational command of Seoul’s armed forces for strategic reasons tied to its regional approach:


If one of the unstated goals of the United States in South Korea is to have a strong presence in mainland Northeast Asia, beyond countering the DPRK and to perhaps balance China, then handing over OPCON makes the purpose of US troops deployed to South Korea a question for foreign observers. By recognizing the capacity of the ROK military in wartime, the OPCON transfer might encourage Beijing to wonder just what, or whom, the US military presence on the Korean peninsula (in addition to US bases in Japan) is geared toward. If the United States hopes to stay in the region and is using the continuing ROK-DPRK conflict as a crutch, then the OPCON transition would undermine the US argument for staying in South Korea (Su 2012:168)

Pyongyang and Beijing both are cognizant of this. In this context, it is not just the DPRK alone that views US military operations, exercises, and operational control in the Korean Peninsula as a threat. Beijing does too.

Chinese strategists understand that the DPRK is being demonized and targeted as an excuse for the US to keep its forces adjacent to mainland China. Like the disputes in the South China Sea, this is also why inter-Korean tensions are being promoted. By the same token, this was also the basis for the eventual Chinese intervention against the US military during Korea’s Liberation War in 1950, albeit China intervened unofficially by sending the People’s Volunteer Army. The Chinese intervened in the Korean Peninsula in 1950, because they did not want US troops directly on their border and in close proximity to Beijing. Aside from their historically close political and military relationship (in what is called their “blood ties”) with Pyongyang (Ong 2002:57-58), Chinese leaders realized that the DPRK was and still is a stepping stone towards the US goal of encircling, destabilizing, and eventually neutralizing the People’s Republic of China.

Realizing what the strategic objectives of the US are in Northeast Asia, the Chinese and the Russians have continuously worked to prevent a confrontation in the Korean Peninsula from occurring by mediating in the tensions that the DPRK has with the US and the ROK’s authorities. As the US continues its military buildup in the Asia-Pacific, the Russian military and Chinese military have begun coordinating joint large-scale aerial, land, and naval exercise to enhance their cooperation and preparedness. Moscow is also strengthening its ties with Pyongyang.

The Militarization of the Asia-Pacific Region

The Asia-Pacific region has steadily militarized in recent years. Steady streams of US Marines have been deployed to Australia and Southeast Asia while Washington’s military and security alliances with Australia and Japan are being deepened. The Australian Defence Ministry has talked about a regional arms race and issued reports on increased Chinese military spending and naval expansion while the Japanese government continually talks about the DPRK and China as military threats. Never once is it mentioned that the Chinese naval expansion and Beijing’s increased military spending are reactions to US militarism and Washington’s attempts to encircle the Chinese. China is acting defensively and trying to secure the Indian Ocean’s maritime trade routes and energy corridors from the US, because it fears the US could block them in the scenario of a confrontation (Nazemroaya:175-191).

Australia, Japan, and the ROK form key components of the US strategy against China (Ibid.:252-265). They are all part of the global missile shield system targeting the Chinese and Russians, which the US initially justified erecting using the demonization of the DPRK and Iran. Australia, Japan, and the ROK are homes to US-led rapid response military forces that are configured for immediate military action should a war ignite with China, Russia, and the DPRK. The policies of Canberra, Tokyo, and Seoul have also begun to radically change as they harden themselves as frontline states next to or near the Chinese (Ibid.). For example, the strategic aim of the Pentagon to encircle and contain China has encouraged successive Japanese governments to turn their backs on the Japanese Constitution, specifically Article 9, by re-arming Japan in an offensive context. Despite the objections and anger of many Japanese citizens and many more Asian societies, Tokyo has violated and breached the framework of its constitution by militarizing.

There is very little question that Japan is a full partner with Australia, the US, Singapore, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), against Beijing, Moscow, and their partners. In 2007, Japan signed its second post-Second World War bilateral security agreement. The first one was with the US, but the 2007 agreement was with the Commonwealth of Australia. This was the beginning of the Australia-Japan-US Trilateral Security Dialogue. The security agreement led to the eventual signing of the Japan-Australia Acquisition and Cross-servicing Agreement (ACSA) on 19 May 2010, which allows for the pooling and sharing of military resources by both Canberra and Tokyo. In 2015, for the first time ever, the Japanese joined the Australians and the US in their biennial Talisman Sabre military exercise as a dress rehearsal for conformation with the Chinese (Schogol).

As for Australia, it has had a steady stream of secret deals and talks with the US government and the Pentagon. The deal signed between the Australian and US governments over the Pentagon intelligence facility and signals base in Geraldton followed years of secretive discussions between both sides. In 2011, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard and her government allowed the US to deploy troops on Australian territory after a series of secret and public discussions. Gillard’s deal with the Pentagon was unwelcomed by the Chinese and seen as the first significant expansion of the Pentagon into the Asia-Pacific region since the Vietnam War. In 2013, the Chinese told the governments of Australia, Japan, and the US not to use their regional alliance to inflame local tensions any further or to instigate hostilities in East Asia by interfering in bilateral territorial disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea (Ruwitch). As recently as 2015, a Chinese news outlet editorial said that a war with the US would be “inevitable” if the US continued its posture in the South China Sea (Ryall quoting Global Times).

Continued......
 

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The integration of Australia and Japan into a US-led military front against China and Russia has not only included the formation of the Australia-Japan-US Trilateral Security Dialogue. The creation of this Washington-led front includes NATO as a key feature of the strategy of militarily encircling all Eurasia. It is in this context that the accession of both Canberra and Tokyo, alongside New Zealand, the ROK, and Colombia, as NATO partners has occurred. These NATO partnerships are referred to by NATO Headquarters and the North Atlantic Council as NATO’s “global partners” program. Mongolia, post-2003 Iraq, and NATO-garrisoned Afghanistan are also partners of the NATO program. NATO has also created different partnership programs that include countries like Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan, Israel, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, the Republic of Georgia, Kuwait, Bosnia, and Mauritania.

The hardening lines being created, specifically with the instigation and agitation of the United States, are destabilizing factors in the international arena. This threatens to turn Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, including Northeast Asia, into war theatres. These regions could be theatres of a global confrontation or start off as theatres of regional wars that quickly escalate into broader hot wars.

Korea and the Global Multi-Spectrum War

The Cold War was more than an ideological struggle. Ideology was merely utilized as a justification for foreign policy and unacceptable actions. The divisions that were perceived to have existed during the Cold War did not or have not disappeared either, because the struggle fuelling the Cold War did not really end. In reality, there has been a “post-Cold War cold war” or a cold war after the Cold War. Over the years it has become increasingly clear that the divisions that existed in the Cold War have been carried on and merely transformed. Those divisions have slowly re-emerged and are displaying themselves again.

The specter of a nuclear war has not disappeared either. The US and its NATO allies “have always deemed the [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)] to be null and void in the scenario of a world war” (Nazemroaya 2012:374).


In essence the NPT is nothing more than a convenient means of holding sway over non-nuclear states and insuring a partial US and NATO nuclear weapons monopoly to insure their dominance over other states; the moment that dominance fades, the US and NATO have no qualms in being unequivocal treaty violators as they themselves have warned (Ibid.:347-348)

In violation of the NPT, the US has even threatened to attack the DPRK and Iran with nuclear weapons. This is because Obama “redefined Washington’s NPT commitments in April 2010 by declaring that the” US government would violate “the NPT’s provision which barred a nuclear attack on certain non-nuclear states, meaning Iran and North Korea” (Ibid.:346). Although the DPRK is not legally obligated by the NPT since it cited the NPT’s Article 10 to withdraw on April 10, 2003, Washington’s justification for this was that it had unilaterally and illegally decided that both Iran and the DPRK were in noncompliance with the NPT.

In 2001, the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) acknowledged that the US had nuclear missiles pointed for an attack on Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, China, Russia, and the DPRK at all times. Since the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq and the NATO war on the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, the US continues to maintain nuclear weapons pointed at the DPRK, Iran, Syria, Russia, and China. In 2006, the Pentagon even launched war games called Vigilant Shield 07 that simulated a nuclear attack on Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea, respectively codenamed Irmingham, Ruebek, Churya, and Nemazee.

Like Russia and China, this is why the DPRK maintains its nuclear weapons as a strategic deterrence against the US. The nuclear factor also makes the signing of a formal peace treaty to officially end the Libration War between the US and the DPRK of great consequence to Eurasian and global security, because a conflict in the Korean Peninsula could escalate into a nuclear war with immediate global ramifications that would draw in China, Russia, Japan, and NATO.

The threat of nuclear confrontation has actually increased, because there is less pressure for constraint on public officials due to the fact that the general public is less aware of the nature of global rivalries and the dangers of nuclear escalation. This is directly tied to the role of the mass media and the information strategies of governments.

A chain of US-controlled alliances are being constructed and equipped around three main actors, China, Russia, and Iran—the “Eurasian Triple Entente.” In this context, the following was averred in 1997:


But if the middle space rebuffs the West, becomes an assertive single entity, and either gains control over the South or forms an alliance with the major Eastern actor, then America’s primacy in Eurasia shrinks dramatically. The same would be the case if the two major Eastern players were somehow to unite (Brzezinski 1997:35).

Camouflaged behind thinly veiled liberal and academic jargon, what Zbigniew Brzezinski—the man making these statements—meant was that if the Russian Federation and the post-Soviet space manage to repulse or push back Western domination—meaning some combination of tutelage by the US and its allies—and manage to reorganize themselves within some type of confederacy or supranational grouping, either gaining influence in the Middle East and Central Asia or form an alliance with China, that Washington’s influence in Eurasia would be finished. This is why the US government is doing everything it can to prevent the “Middle Space” and the “Middle Kingdom” (Zhongguo/China) from uniting Eurasia. It is under this framework that the US opposes the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and China’s New Silk Road(s) or One Belt, One Road” project. With the shifting balance of power, this is also the reason that the US was forced to revise its policies with Cuba and Iran.

While NATO has expanded eastward in Europe towards the borders of Russia and its allies in the post-Soviet space, the US has tightened its system of alliances in East Asia and Oceania against China, incubated the rise of the so-called “Islamic State” death squads to devastate Syria as a means of weakening Iran and its Resistance Bloc, and working to control the Gulf of Aden and strategic Mandeb Strait through the Saudi-led war on Yemen. Chinese, Iranian, and Russian allies and partners, such as Belarus, Armenia, Syria, Kyrgyzstan, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, are being target in various ways as a means of getting them to change their orbits. In this regard, this and the self-sufficiency aspects of the DPRK’s Juche ideology are additional reasons why it is being targeted.

Land components of the missile shield have been kept and expanded in the Balkans, Israel, Turkey, and the Asia-Pacific region. Aside from land elements, the Pentagon’s missile shield project has been expanded to include a naval armada of ships that will surround Eurasia from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf, South China Sea, and the East China Sea. In Europe and the Middle East the missile shield project includes NATO. Missiles that are pointing at Armenia, Iran, Syria, and Russia have been deployed to Turkey while infrastructure has been put in place in Poland on the direct borders of Russian ally and EEU founding member Belarus, as well as the Russian Federation’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania.

The militarization of the Russian and Belarusian borders by the NATO alliance puts the US and its allies in direct opposition to not just Russia and Belarus, but the entire Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is the military pact of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and converges with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that includes China. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are full members of both the CSTO and SCO; Armenia is a member of the CSTO and a dialogue partner of the SCO; and Uzbekistan is a member of the SCO while it has suspended its participation the CSTO. In 2007, the CSTO and the SCO signed a cooperation agreement, effectively creating a distinct Sino-Russian Eurasian security community covering the space from Shanghai and Vladivostok to St. Petersburg and Minsk through Dushanbe and Astana.

Economic sanctions have increasingly become a tool in the multi-spectrum war that the US is waging against its adversaries across the world. The DPRK has been one of the oldest targets of US sanctions, that deliberately target the civilian population to create internal instability and to cripple the country by means of crippling its most important resource—its people. Simply put, these sanctions are economic warfare.

Countries like the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Syria, Baathist Iraq, and the Russian Federation have also been targeted by US sanction regimes. Iran and Cuba, as two of the countries that have been sanctioned longest by Washington, have similar experiences against the US economic sanctions as the DPRK and in this regard have been unapologetic allies of Pyongyang as part of a network of international resistance to Washington’s system of economic coercion. The sanctions experience has made self-sufficiency an important security consideration in the DPRK and Iran.

Trade Blocs and Economic Rivalries

Washington’s militarization agenda is tied to a multilateral trade agenda that has hegemonic connotations. In other words, there is a trade dimension to the militarization and the stoking of tensions in the Asia-Pacific. The case is the same for the tensions with Russia in Europe. It is under this framework that the DPRK, China, and the Russian Federation are being instrumentally demonized to help increase US influence and justify a larger US presence in both East Asia and Europe. This is also part of a US strategy to marginalize and exclude the Russians and Chinese in the affairs of both Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. While Washington works to exclude China and Russia, the US goal is to integrate the other countries of these areas with itself using the tensions that it has promoted between Beijing, Moscow, and their neighbours.

In Europe, the objectives of the US are to create instability in the flow of Russian energy supplies to the European Union by instigating problems inside Ukraine and between the Russian Federation and the Ukrainians. What the US is actually doing through this is working to weaken both the Russians and the European Union economically. This includes the goal of disrupting trade ties. The deterioration of EU-Russian trade ties and relations is meant to aid US negotiations and weaken the European Union. This is part of the US strategy to eventually economically control and swallow the European Union under the framework of the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which is under negotiation between Brussels and Washington. Washington’s objective is to construct a single US-controlled Euro-Atlantic military, political, and economic space that would absorb the EU and Europe.

In the Asia-Pacific region the US is following or using the same strategy of artificially creating tensions and instigating problems between China and other countries in the region. This is exactly why US officials continuously showcase the territorial disputes that Beijing has and the reason why Washington has been getting itself involved in the bilateral or multilateral territorial disputes that China has in East Asia. Washington has used this to promote the secretive Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in the Asia-Pacific region.

Ultimately, what the US wants is to subordinate China and Russia. In the case of Russia, it wants to control Russia’s vast resources and technology. As Nikolai Patrushev notes, this is why Madeleine Albright, the former US secretary of state during the presidency of Bill Clinton, has had the nerve and audacity to say in doublespeak that the Russians have “unfair” control of the world’s resources on their country’s vast territory and should give the US and its allies “free access” to it “to serve humanity” (Yegorov).

The case with Beijing is different. There is a level of alignment between it and economic interests in the so-called West. This is why after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s very revealing October 2015 visit to London, one of the world’s financial hubs, the British declared that a “golden age” was starting with China. The visit to Britain came after Xi Jinping was in Washington making deals with the US.

In the case of the Chinese, the US wants to control China as an industrial colony. Washington and Wall Street want China to be a giant labour camp of manufacturing for US corporations. Thus, Washington’s goal is to put a leash on China as a subordinate. This is why Obama (2014) made the following points to his audience in Brisbane: “And the question is, what kind of role will it play? I just came from Beijing, and I said there, the United States welcomes the continuing rise of a China that is peaceful and prosperous and stable and that plays a responsible role in world affairs.” What Obama is saying is that Beijing serves Washington interests as a manufacturing hub. What he meant by China playing “a responsible role in world affairs” is that Beijing will be considered a “responsible” international actor by the US as long it follows Washington’s designs and scripts. “So we’ll pursue cooperation with China where our interests overlap or align. And there are significant areas of overlap: More trade and investment,” Obama’s (Ibid.) admitted.

Korea: Peace at Home, Peace Abroad or Peace Abroad, Peace at Home?

Peace, security, and unification in the Korean Peninsula are internal matters for the Korean people, but there are important external factors involved. The key word here is “glocalism.” In other words, both local and global considerations must be taken into account for peace in Korea. North Korean-South Korean or inter-Korean relations are predisposed to external forces. As long as the government of the ROK is subordinated to Washington the external factor is a part of the equation.

As it should be realized, Chinese-US relations are another external factor in the equation. Even if a peace treaty is signed between the DPRK and the US, it will be ineffective for as long as Washington is targeting China and wants primacy in Eurasia. This is why, as declassified US government documents reveal, US Secretary of Defence James Baker instructed Richard (“Dick”) Cheney to make the ROK reject an inter-Korean deal with the DPRK to have US forces leave the ROK in exchange for the de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in cable dated November 18, 1991. As long as the US is targeting Beijing, Washington will want a military presence in the Korean Peninsula and maintain hostilities with the DPRK directly and by means of the leadership in the ROK. This means that the US will continue to obstruct Korean unification and continue to demonize the DPRK’s leadership as a means of weakening and dividing the unification movement in the ROK. Washington will maintain this position unless the DPRK surrenders to US edicts or there are tectonic shifts in Chinese-US relations.

The case of the USS Pueblo, the US Navy spy ship that was caught in DPRK waters in 1968, must be recalled too. To free the USS Pueblo’s crew, the US committed itself to halting any future violations of the DPRK’s territories and ending its spying missions. Washington never honoured its commitments to Pyongyang.

The increasing tensions between the US and Russia, the decline of the global influence of Washington, Eurasian integration, and the growing clout of the Iran are also all important factors for how China and the US will act in Northeast Asia. Along with growing multipolarism, these events are giving the DPRK options, alternatives, and moving space.

Despite Washington’s intentions in Korea and against China, a peace treaty between the DPRK and the US is still an important step and ingredient towards Korean reunification. Such a treaty would give strength to the calls to remove the US military in the ROK and transfer operation control of the ROK military to Seoul. It would make it harder to justify the US military presence and command in the ROK.

In Turkey, it was once said that “peace at home” will translate to peace abroad.” For the Korean Peninsula, the case is inversed. “Peace abroad” will equate to “peace at home” in the divided homeland of the Korean people. This is because of the role that external factors play on local policies, politics, and security in the Korean Peninsula. Thus, the road forward for Korea will be a glocal one.

WORKS CITED

Andrews, Briand, and Kurt Campbell. 2013. “Explaining the US Pivot to Asia.” London, UK: Chatem House.

Brzezinski, Zbigniew. 1997. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. NYC: Basic Books.

“B-52’s defiance no reason for nervousness.” November 2, 2013. Global Times. Accessed November 7, 2015 <www.globaltimes.cn/content/828213.shtml#.UpaRe7VDvC0>.

Clinton, Hillary. October 11, 2011. “America’s Pacific Century.” Foreign Policy. Accessed November 7, 2015: <http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/>.

Nazmeroaya, Mahdi Darius. 2012. The Globalization of NATO. Atlanta, GA: Clarity Press.

Obama, Barack. November 15, 2014. “Remarks by President Obama at the University of Queensland.” Office of the Press Secretary. Accessed November 7, 2015: <www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/15/remarks-president-obama-university-queensland>.

Ong, Russell. 2002. China’s Security Interests in the Post-Cold War Era. NYC: Routledge.

Ruwitch, John. October 6, 2013. “China warns U.S., Japan, Australia not to gang up in sea disputes,” Reuters. Raju Gopalakrishnan, ed. Accessed November 7, 2015: <www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/ 07/us-asia-southchinasea-china-idUSBRE99602220 131007>.

Ryall, Julian. May 26, 2015. “US-China war ‘inevitable’ unless Washington drops demands over South China Sea.” Telegraph. Accessed November 7, 2015: <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/11630185/US-China-war-inevitable-unless-Washington-drops-demands-over-South-China-Sea.html>.

Seok Jin-hwan and Park Byong-su. October 27, 2014. “Latest OPCON transfer delay is Pres. Park’s latest broken campaign promise.” Hankyoreh. Accessed November 8, 2015: <http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/661566.html>.

Schogol, Jeff. July 26, 2015. “Talisman Sabre: Trying to deter China.” Military Times. Accessed November 8, 2015: <www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2015/07/26/talisman-sabre-trying-deter-china/30574725/>.

Schwartz, Felicia. October 23, 2014. “U.S., South Korea Shift Plan on Wartime Military Control.” Wall Street Journal. Accessed November 7, 2015: <www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-south-korea-shift-plan-on-wartime-military-control-1414104612>.

Su, Shelley. 2012. “The OPCON Transfer Debate.” Pp.159-173 in 2011 US-Korea Yearbook. Baltimore, MD: The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University

Yegorov, Ivan. February 10, 2015. “Patrushev: US goal – to weaken Russia” [«Ïàòðóøåâ: Öåëü ÑØÀ - îñëàáèòü Ðîññèþ»]. Rossiyskaya Gazeta [«Ðîññèéñêîé ãàçåòû»]. Accessed November 8, 2015: <http://rg.ru/2015/02/10/patrushev-interviu-site.html>.

This paper (original title: “Examining The Global Kaleidoscope: Glocalism and Korea”) was presented at the Second International Conference for Peace and Prosperity on the Korean Peninsula, which just took place in Berlin, Germany from Nov. 24 to 27, 2015.


The original source of this article is Global Research

Copyright © Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Global Research, 2015
 

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http://www.france24.com/en/20151207-yemen-peace-talks-ceasefire-un-switzerland

Yemen's warring parties agree to peace talks in Switzerland

Latest update : 2015-12-07

Warring parties in Yemen have agreed to peace talks in Switzerland beginning on December 15, when a temporary ceasefire will likely be in place, the UN envoy to the country said Monday.

The United Nations Yemen envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said three delegations had agreed to come to the talks, likely to be held outside of Geneva.

They include representatives of President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi's government, a delegation of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, and officials from the General People's Congress, who are loyalists of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Ahmed said there was no timeline for the negotiations, vowing they would last "as long as it takes."

The UN envoy added he was "almost sure" a temporary ceasefire would be in place by the time talks started.

He said all sides had responded positively to the ceasefire proposal, including the Saudi-led coalition which has been bombarding Yemen in support of the government.

According to the UN envoy, Riyadh said it would observe a ceasefire if Hadi backed the idea.

(AFP)
 

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http://business.financialpost.com/n...led-nations-now-only-able-to-bully-themselves

‘OPEC is dead’: Cartel that once blackmailed nations now only able to bully themselves

Laura Hurst, Nayla Razzouk and Julian Lee, Bloomberg News | December 7, 2015 9:34 AM ET

OPEC has abandoned all pretense of acting as a cartel. It’s now every member for itself.


So this is what winning looks like: OPEC's 'victory' against rivals comes at heavy price

While OPEC’s strategy has cancelled projects in North America, most of its own members are also struggling with massive deficits, anemic economies and rising unemployment. Read on
.

At a chaotic meeting Friday in Vienna that was expected to last four hours but extended to nearly seven, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries tossed aside the idea of limiting production to control prices. Instead, it went all in for the one-year-old Saudi Arabia-led policy of pumping, pumping, pumping until rivals — external, such as Russia and U.S. shale drillers, as well as internal — are squeezed out of market share.

“Lots of people said that OPEC was dead; OPEC itself just confirmed it,” Jamie Webster, a Washington-based oil analyst for IHS Inc., said in Vienna.

OPEC has set a production target almost without interruption since 1982, though member countries often ignored it and pumped well above it. The ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, in place since 2011 and now abandoned as too rigid, is no exception. OPEC output has outstripped it for 18 consecutive months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Now the organization says it will keep pumping as much as it does now — about 31.5 million barrels a day — effectively endorsing limitless output.

‘It’s Ceilingless’

The oversupply has sent the price of Brent, a global oil benchmark, to a six-year low, triggering the worst slump in the energy sector since the 2008 world financial crisis. It’s cut the profits of major oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc in half while crude-rich countries such as Mexico and Russia have watched their currencies plunge and their coffers shrink.


Americans don’t have any ceiling. Russians don’t have any ceiling. Why should OPEC have a ceiling?
.
West Texas Intermediate extended losses below $40 a barrel, dropping as much as 81 cents, or 2 percent, to $39.16 on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 6:55 a.m. Monday. Brent crude in London slid as much as 1.3 per cent to $42.46.

On Friday, there was no talk of even setting a production target that member countries could then disregard.

“Effectively, it’s ceilingless,” said Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. “Everyone does whatever they want.”

Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, the Nigerian minister, reinforced the message, saying the market shouldn’t worry about the “semantics” of targets or real production.

“We aren’t going to go back to a cartel and work against the customers — that time has passed,” said United Arab Emirates Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei.


Related
Oil tanks below US$40 a barrel after OPEC mantains output amid global glut
Why OPEC has no choice but to keep pumping more oil
OPEC’s ‘victory’ against rivals comes at heavy price
.
Most of the market “doesn’t have any ceiling,” Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi told reporters. “Americans don’t have any ceiling. Russians don’t have any ceiling. Why should OPEC have a ceiling?”

Iran Looming

The prospect of OPEC, which accounts for roughly 40 per cent of the world’s oil production, taking U.S. TV personality Sarah Palin’s advice to “drill, baby, drill” sent crude prices further downward. The U.S. benchmark dropped 5.7 per cent between 8:14 a.m. and 9:06 a.m. New York time on Friday. On June 30, 2014, the price was $105.37 a barrel.

The oversupply is likely to continue in the new year. Iran, for years under sanctions related to its nuclear program, has promised to lift its production to as much as 4 million barrels a day by the end of 2016, up from about 3.3 million barrels a day currently.

‘Pivotal Role’

“We hope an increase in oil-market demand, on one hand, and a dropping trend in production or drop in the increase in production, as seen and said by non-OPEC producers, will exert less pressure on prices,” Iran’s Zanganeh said, according to a report on Sunday by IRINN state TV.

OPEC will “continue its pivotal role in production and investment no matter how much prices fall,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in an interview with Al Eqtisadiah newspaper published Saturday.

The meeting on Friday at times looked as if it might be headed to an acrimonious end, similar to a gathering in June 2011 when OPEC was unable to agree on policy and ministers openly attacked each other. At the time, al-Naimi said he personally had had one of his “worst-ever” meetings.

Concealing Differences

No official would go that far to describe this conference, yet when ministers and delegates left the OPEC building, near the iconic Vienna State Opera house, they were speechless and grim. Within an hour, some of them, including representatives of Saudi Arabia and Iran, were heading to the airport. Al-Naimi said he was traveling to Paris to take part in climate-change talks. Delegates from Venezuela, which pushed hard to cut the old ceiling by about five per cent, would only say OPEC “didn’t decide anything,” a sign of the deep frustration with the new policies in the cash-strapped South American country.

Officials nonetheless did their best to conceal any division. Asked what arguments, if any, went on inside the small meeting room where OPEC ministers seclude themselves without the presence of aides, Iran’s Zanganeh simply said, “There were discussions.”

That was most likely polite understatement, as Iran’s rival, Saudi Arabia, carried the day. This time around, OPEC didn’t look like the group that American diplomat Henry Kissinger once described as able to blackmail national economies and whole industries. Instead, it looked like they might have spent the last few days bullying each other.

Bloomberg.com
 

vestige

Deceased
The Division of Eurasia: Threats of Nuclear War and the Korean Peninsula

That title jogged my memory.

What was the final disposition of the +or - 70 subs that went missing?

bump

(Helicopter overhead ... low.... 12:04 PM EST)
 

Housecarl

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The Division of Eurasia: Threats of Nuclear War and the Korean Peninsula

That title jogged my memory.

What was the final disposition of the +or - 70 subs that went missing?

bump

(Helicopter overhead ... low.... 12:04 PM EST)

Last I heard they were mostly accounted for. Considering that they're getting North Korean owned small fishing boats washing up in Japanese territory with dead crews in the last couple of weeks, just about any theory could play at this point.
 

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http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/12/06/jihadists-using-refugee-flows/

European Nightmare

Jihadists Using Refugee Flows?

Evidence accumulating that jihadi groups, including the one that planned the Paris attacks, are using the migration of hundreds of thousands of refugees to cover their own movements. The New York Times reports:

The investigation into the Paris terrorist attacks, previously focused on jihadist networks in France and Belgium, has widened to Eastern Europe, with a Belgian federal prosecutor announcing Friday that one of the people suspected of terrorism traveled in September by car to Hungary, where he picked up two men now believed to have links to the carnage of Nov. 13.

The disclosure of a Hungarian connection has not only dramatically expanded the scope of the investigation but has also put a spotlight on the question of whether jihadist militants have concealed themselves in a huge flow of asylum seekers passing through Eastern Europe.

A statement issued by the Belgian federal prosecutor on Friday said that Salah Abdeslam, a former Brussels resident who is the only known survivor from three terrorist squads that killed 130 people in Paris, had made two trips to the Hungarian capital, Budapest, in a rented Mercedes-Benz a few weeks before the Paris attacks.

On a drive back to Western Europe on Sept. 9, he was stopped during a routine check at Hungary’s border with Austria and found to be transporting two men using what have since turned out to be “fake Belgian identity cards.”

Europe, which just a few years ago thought that it inhabited a post-historical universe in which nothing could ever go seriously wrong, is painfully waking up from the dream. It’s now crystal clear that one can’t combine a passive foreign policy with a legalistic adherence to absolutist ideals—that, for example, one can turn a blind eye to a disintegrating Middle East and North Africa while opening the gates to every refugee and migrant that the meltdown creates.

Not far behind this lurks the realization that a cosmopolitan and tolerant society can’t thrive if it admits millions of migrants who hate and despise cosmopolitan values. Still obscure to most European elites (and to their American counterparts) is the understanding that neither the values nor the liberties of liberal civilization can long flourish if the religious and spiritual foundations of that civilization are allowed to decay, and are treated with scorn and neglect by society’s leaders.

Today’s Western elites, in the U.S. as much as in Europe, have never been so self-confident. Products of meritocratic selection who hold key positions in the social machine, the bien-pensant custodians of post-historical ideology—editorial writers at the NY Times, staffers in cultural and educational bureaucracies, Eurocratic functionaries, much of the professoriat, the human rights priesthood and so on—are utterly convinced that they see farther and deeper than the less credentialed, less educated, less tolerant and less sophisticated knuckle-dragging also-rans outside the magic circle of post historical groupthink.

And while the meritocratic priesthood isn’t wrong about everything—and the knuckle-draggers aren’t right about everything—there are a few big issues on which the priests are dead wrong and the knuckle-draggers know it. Worse, as the mass of the people become more aware that the elites are too blind and too wrapped up in the coils of elite ideology to deal effectively with society’s most urgent problems, an age of demagogues is opening up around us. People need leaders; when the meritocratic priesthood seems incapable of providing leadership, people start looking elsewhere.

Posted: Dec 06, 2015 - 1:00 pm - WRM
Walter Russell Mead
Comments 30
 

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http://news.yahoo.com/china-military-tells-officers-hold-tongues-reform-concerns-030459646.html

China military tells officers to hold their tongues on reform concerns

Reuters
14 hours ago
Comments 85

BEIJING (Reuters) - High-ranking officers in the Chinese army must hold their tongues about concerns over military reform and lead from the front to ensure the rank and file are on board, the People's Liberation Army said on Monday.

President Xi Jinping unveiled a broad-brush outline of the reforms last month, seeking further modernization of the command structure of the world's largest armed forces, including job losses, to better enable it to win a modern war.

Xi is determined to modernize at the same time as China becomes more assertive in its territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas. China's navy is investing in submarines and aircraft carriers, while the air force is developing stealth fighters.

The reforms, kicked of in September with Xi's announcement he would cut service personnel by 300,000, have been controversial.

The military's newspaper has published a series of commentaries warning of opposition to the reforms and worries about lost jobs.

In a front-page commentary in the People's Liberation Army Daily, the military's political department, in charge of ideology and ensuring loyalty to the ruling Communist Party, said the success or failure of reform depended on top officers "leading from the front and setting a fine example".

"It is forbidden to speak nonsense, make irresponsible comments, have your own points of view, act as you see fit or feign compliance," it said, in a piece also carried in the party's official People's Daily.

Special attention must be paid to what ordinary soldiers think and sensitive subjects "effectively resolved", it added.

"(You) must organize and manage well public opinion, especially on the Internet, and fight an active battle to create a good atmosphere for promoting reform," the piece said.

Those in the military who "resolutely support reform and dare to throw themselves into reform" should be promoted, it added.

The commentary reiterated the party's absolute leadership over the military and reminded officers to oppose "liberalism", wording the army normally uses to refer to those who wish to challenge the party's control.

Xi's reforms include establishing a joint operational command structure by 2020 and rejigging existing military regions, as well as cutting troop numbers.

The military commentary said that the reforms were unprecedented in their scope and for the interest groups they touch upon.

"Deepening military reform is a big test that cannot be avoided, and we have begun our assault and entered deep waters," it added.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Nick Macfie)
 

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Washington, Baghdad on different pages in fight against IS

Dec 8, 1:45 AM (ET)
SUSANNAH GEORGE

(AP) In this Monday, June 8, 2015, file photo Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi...
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BAGHDAD (AP) — A series of political spats that erupted in Baghdad over the past week surrounding foreign forces on Iraqi soil have exposed the increasing weakness of Iraq's central government and a growing disconnect between Washington and Baghdad in the U.S.-led coalition's fight against the Islamic State group.

Following exaggerated media reports of Turkish troops deploying to a base near Mosul, politicians in Baghdad were quick to express outrage. Despite Turkey's insistence that the troops were part of a training mission coordinated with Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi gave Turkey an ultimatum late Sunday night: Turkey must withdraw its troops within 48 hours or else Iraq will bring the matter to the United Nations Security Council.

In truth, a few hundred Turkish trainers have been present in Iraq for months, working to train Kurdish peshmerga fighters and Sunni militiamen. Their presence, while not publicly advertised, appears to have been done in coordination with both Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish regional government in Iraq's north.

One senior Iraqi lawmaker said Abadi's angry public reaction was a reflection of pressure from Iran — one of Abadi's strongest allies.

(AP) This Thursday, Sept. 10, 2015, file photo shows a general top view of the...
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"Let us be realistic," said the lawmaker, who requested his name be withheld so he could speak freely on the subject. "This is not Baghdad that's upset about the Turkish troops. Baghdad authorized those troops, this is another country that's now pulling the strings."

Iranian influence in Iraqi politics and in the country's security apparatus has significantly increased in the past 18 months as the country has struggled to recover after the fall of Mosul and the loss of large swaths of territory to the Islamic State group.

In the wake of international acts of terrorism with links to IS, U.S. officials have pushed the Obama administration to increase military intervention against the Islamic State group in Iraq. But analysts and officials warn the moves are only weakening Abadi, the man whose government President Obama cited as a key factor in his decision to step up the U.S.-led campaign of airstrikes against IS in September 2014.

The coalition against the Islamic State group in Iraq needs a strong Iraqi central government to be effective, according to analysts and senior coalition officials in Baghdad — especially as Iraqi forces backed by coalition airstrikes move to help retake territory in majority Sunni parts of the country.

Iraq's ruling Shiite parties and the country's powerful Shiite militia groups have already reacted with hostility to Defense Secretary Ash Carter's recent announcement that the U.S. military would deploy a new special operations force to Iraq.

(AP) In this Friday, Nov. 13, 2015, file photo, a Kurdish fighter walks past a...
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"Iraq does not need foreign ground forces and the Iraqi government is committed not to allow the presence of any ground force on Iraqi land," Abadi said in a statement. Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the Badr Organization, considered one of the country's most powerful Shiite militias, said Monday that any U.S. base in Iraq would be considered "a target" by his fighters.

There are currently some 3,500 U.S. troops in Iraq, training Iraqi forces and supporting the U.S.-led campaign of airstrikes.

In comments to the Associated Press, Abadi's spokesman walked back the prime minister's comments, saying that the government had requested more overflights, weapons and equipment.

"There will be special forces on board the aircraft," said Saad al-Hadithi. "The matter was discussed with top Iraqi leaders and they approved these forces."

Regardless, as an airstrike-heavy approach to the fight against IS in Iraq appears to be stalling in the Sunni-dominated provinces of Anbar and Ninevah, the hostility to increased numbers of U.S. troops is seen as a bad sign by some.

(AP) In this Monday, June 8, 2015, file photo, US President Barack Obama and Iraqi...
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"You can't take Anbar back without the Sunnis and honestly you can't get the Sunnis (on board) without an outside force like the U.S.," said a senior coalition diplomat in Baghdad. The level of distrust between Iraq's Sunnis and the central government is so high, the diplomat said, that a mediating force is needed to effectively execute military operations in Sunni-dominated territory.

But in the current political climate, the diplomat explained, endorsing the deployment of U.S. ground troops would be political suicide for Abadi. The prime minister didn't enter office with a broad base of support and has failed to build one during his first year in office.

"I think now he's missed the boat," said Muwaffak al-Rubaie, a Shiite lawmaker and former member of Abadi's Dawa party.

Abadi had an opportunity to establish a base of support when he was riding a wave of public goodwill following the introduction of a political and anti-corruption reform package, Rubaie said. But in the weeks that followed he bungled the opportunity, specifically in his handling of proposed salary cuts that looked set to hurt Iraq's dwindling middle class — the very people who supported the reforms to begin with.

"He was never a strong guy. By nature he dithers and is reluctant, but I honestly believe he missed his opportunity," said Rubaie, a former Iraqi national security adviser.

(AP) In this Thursday, Nov. 12, 2015, file photo, smoke believed to be from an...
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A number of Iraqi lawmakers contacted by The Associated Press paint a similar picture of Abadi: a well-intentioned man tasked with an impossible job who is now attempting to compensate with heavy-handed rhetoric.

As Abadi has weakened, his rivals inside and outside of parliament have grown in strength. The umbrella group of Shiite militias, the Popular Mobilization Forces, who are already significantly more powerful than the Iraqi military, appear set to receive an even larger share of next year's budget. Amiri, the head of the Badr brigade, and Naim Aboudi the spokesman for Asaib al-Haq, another Shiite militia, confirmed they expect to receive more supplies in the coming year and heavier weaponry.

Amiri says without a doubt Abadi is a weak leader, but he doesn't think anyone else would be able to do a better job.

"Any other person who could come (to assume the position of prime minister), won't have a magical wand that can change the situation," he said.

In the meantime Amiri says he counsels Abadi to reach out more to other political parties and groups to keep what little power he still has.

(AP) In this Friday, Nov. 13, 2015, file photo a Kurdish fighter, known as a...
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Regardless, Sajad Jiyad, a fellow at the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform in Baghdad, doesn't believe Abadi's position is in any danger. Partially, because parliament lacks the votes needed for a vote of no confidence and partially because for the moment, Abadi's rivals are served by the status quo.

"They want a weak prime minister who's not able to challenge the parties and unable to challenge the corrupt," Jiyad said. "Everyone is working for their own gain, even members of his own party."

However, Jiyad said, a weakened Abadi is a problem for the U.S.-led coalition.

"They need someone who can work with the Iranians, who can work with the Shiite majority in Iraq and at the same time keep the Sunnis on board, and keep the Kurds on board."

"If you don't want the breakup of Iraq," he continued, "you're still relying on the strong central government in a federal structure and that means at the end of the day the prime minister has to be a strong figure — somebody's who's able to hold the country together."

---

Associated Press writers Qassim Abdul-Zahra and Sinan Salah in Baghdad contributed to this report.
 

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Amnesty: Most weapons used by IS were seized from Iraqi army

Dec 7, 7:28 PM (ET)
By BASSEM MROUE

(AP) This file image posted Nov. 1, 2015, by supporters of the Islamic State...
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BEIRUT (AP) — Decades of reckless arms trading and the poorly regulated flow of weapons into Iraq have contributed to the Islamic State group's accumulation of a "vast and varied" arsenal which is being used to commit war crimes on a massive scale in Iraq and Syria, an international rights group said Tuesday.

Amnesty International's report, based on expert analysis of verified videos and images, says most of the extremist group's weapons, ammunition and equipment were looted from the Iraqi army. It says the weapons were manufactured and designed in more than two dozen countries, including Russia, China, the U.S. and EU states.

IS swept across Iraq in the summer of 2014, capturing the second largest city, Mosul, and taking weapons left behind by fleeing Iraqi security forces, including U.S.-supplied arms and military vehicles. The extremist group has also snatched arms from Syrian forces after capturing military bases there.

"The vast and varied weaponry being used by the armed group calling itself Islamic State is a textbook case of how reckless arms trading fuels atrocities on a massive scale," said Amnesty researcher Patrick Wilcken.

(AP) In this file photo released on June 16, 2015, by Ismamic State militant group...
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"Poor regulation and lack of oversight of the immense arms flows into Iraq going back decades have given IS and other armed groups a bonanza of unprecedented access to firepower," he said.

The rights group said the weapons have allowed IS to carry out a "horrific campaign of abuse," including "summary killings, rape, torture, abduction and hostage-taking -- often carried out at gunpoint."

IS has proudly posted videos showing its fighters beheading journalists, captured soldiers, Syrian rebels and alleged spies. IS militants have also forced women and girls from Iraq's Yazidi religious minority into sex slavery.

Amnesty said the range and scope of the group's arsenal reflects decades of "irresponsible" arms transfers to Iraq. It also faulted a lack of oversight following the 2003 invasion, when the United State spent billions of dollars arming and training Iraqi security forces. "Lax controls over military stockpiles and endemic corruption by successive Iraqi governments have added to the problem," it said.

The report documents the extremists' use of arms and ammunition from at least 25 countries. Among the advanced weaponry in the IS arsenal are man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, guided anti-tank missiles and armored fighting vehicles.

It said most of the conventional weapons being used by IS fighters date from the 1970s to the 1990s, when Iraq was engaged in a massive military buildup ahead of and during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.

Iraq was placed under a U.N. arms embargo after Saddam Hussein's troops invade Kuwait in 1990, but that was lifted after the U.S.-led invasion. By 2014, Washington had delivered more than $500 million worth of small arms and ammunition to the Iraqi government, Amnesty said.

Amnesty International called on all states to adopt "a complete embargo" on Syrian government forces and armed opposition groups "implicated in committing war crimes." It said any state transferring arms to Iraq should invest heavily in controls, training and monitoring in order to meet international standards.
 

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http://www.newsweek.com/iran-missile-united-nations-402380

U.S. Officials: Iran Tested Missile, Violating U.N. Resolution

By Reuters 12/7/15 at 7:29 PM

WASHINGTON/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Iran tested a new medium-range ballistic missile last month in a breach of two U.N. Security Council resolutions, two U.S. officials said on Monday.

The officials, both speaking on condition of anonymity, said the test was held on Nov. 21. One of them said the missile traveled within Iranian territory.

Fox News earlier on Monday on its website cited Western intelligence sources as saying the test was held near Chabahar, a port city near Iran's border with Pakistan.

All ballistic missile tests by Iran are banned under a 2010 Security Council resolution that remains valid until a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers is implemented.

Under that deal, reached on July 14, most sanctions on Iran will be lifted in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. According to a July 20 resolution endorsing that deal, Iran is still "called upon" to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons for up to eight years.

In October, the United States, Britain, France and Germany called for the Security Council's Iran sanctions committee to take action over a missile test by Tehran that month that they said violated U.N. sanctions. So far, no action has been taken by the committee.

Several Security Council diplomats said on Monday that they had received no official notification of a new alleged violation of the U.N. missile sanctions against Iran since the October notification. The diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity.
 

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2015/12/07/what_would_clausewitz_do_108769.html

December 7, 2015
What Would Clausewitz Do?
By Mark Perry

For a growing number of military officers, combatting ISIS is a test of national resolve

. . .


Several years ago, during a visit to the U.S. Army War College, I was invited to have lunch with some of its instructors. The school teaches Army officers about strategy and its course offerings (“Civil-Military Relations,” “Peace and Stability Operations,” “Irregular Warfare”) reflect that mandate. So, naturally, the lunch discussion focused on strategy, and how to teach it. While I don’t now recall the exact details of that conversation, a statement by one of the war college’s professors has stayed with me. It brought immediate laughter — and unanimous assent. “Just remember,” he said, “that no matter what the question, the answer is always Clausewitz.”

A Prussian army officer with impressive combat experience, Carl von Clausewitz was still young when the Napoleonic wars ended — and with them opportunities for battlefield glory. Even so, and despite his origins as a junior officer from the provinces, Clausewitz had won the esteem of Prussia’s key military leaders, became the military tutor to Prussia’s royal princes, and married one of the highest-ranking noblewoman in Prussia. Throwing his formidable energies into a quest for understanding the lessons of the long, grueling wars that had just ended, Clausewitz evolved into “the Philosopher of War.”

His papers were gathered by his widow, Marie, into ten volumes and published in 1832, the year following his death. The first three volumes of that compilation constitute the famous tome Vom Kriege — On War. After an initial splash in Prussia, Clausewitz’s work seemed to fade into obscurity, before gaining steadily in reputation. A recent biography, Clausewitz, His Life and Work by U.S. Naval War College professor Donald Stoker, catalogues this growing popularity. By the late 1870s On War was required reading even for French military officers. It was translated into English (1873), Japanese (1903), Russian (1905), and Chinese (in 1910). Marx, Engels, and Lenin readOn War, as did Mao; Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap, the victor at Dien Bien Phu, kept a copy at his bedside.

It took the American military much longer to appreciate Clausewitz.[1]George Patton read Clausewitz in 1910 and Dwight Eisenhower was introduced to him in the early 1920s by U.S. General Fox Conner, who made Ike read him three times. But American military institutions resisted Clausewitz’s key messages until the debacle in Vietnam. It was only in 1981, after U.S. Army Colonel Harry Summers, Jr., published On Strategy, A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War, that he became required reading for the Army.

On War’s belated discovery has been compensated for by its universal acclaim: it now has the same status among military officers as St. Paul’s letters do among Christians — with the caveat that, at least in the military, Clausewitz is more widely read. “On War is the greatest work on the subject ever written,” Stoker told me last week. “There really isn’t anything to compare. His contribution is not that he taught us how to wage war, but that he taught us how to think about it. His was an enormous, a revolutionary, contribution.”

Historian and Clausewitz scholar Christopher Bassford agrees, but argues that “while there was a sustained effort in the decade following Vietnam to get a handle on Clausewitz, I don’t think we’ve really done it.” One of the challenges, Bassford notes, is that most military officers lack a broad knowledge of history, and particularly of the era in which Clausewitz wrote. “Clausewitz is often described as a mere ‘staff officer,’” Bassford notes, “which is looked down on in U.S. military culture — a ‘staff puke’ as we say. The German military tradition is quite different. In the year of Napoleon’s defeat, any Prussian who followed the news would have known who he was, even though he had been a mere major in 1812. He was not at all an “ivory-tower” military academic. He not only led troops in battle, but was a brilliant military planner. In many ways, we actually underestimate him.”

To help correct this, the Pentagon has undertaken a series of seminars on Clausewitz for younger officers. The sessions, which were the brainchild of Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, Brad Carson, were inaugurated on September 25 with a presentation (“Why Study Clausewitz?”) by Lt. General H.R. McMaster, one of the military’s leading strategists. Included in the sessions are some of America’s preeminent Clausewitz thinkers: Ohio State historian Alan Beyerchen, the Army War College’s Antulio “Tony” Echevarria, the University of Maryland’s Jon Sumida, and Bassford.

So, if Clausewitz is so important, if he’s “always the answer” — what would he recommend we do about ISIS?

Oddly, those most familiar with Clausewitz’s thinking issue nearly identical responses to this question. “Clausewitz would start by asking us what it is that we want to accomplish,” the Rand Corporation’s David Johnson, a retired U.S. Army Colonel says. Johnson, who has read On War “from cover to cover numerous times” notes that, for Clausewitz, finding answers to fundamental questions is the key to shaping a military strategy. “You have to understand the war you’re in, and I would bet that, with ISIS, Clausewitz would say that we haven’t done that. We’re too enthralled with trying to figure out who ISIS is — instead of focusing on what they do. In truth, I don’t think it’s much of a mystery. If you go to Istanbul and look south the Caliphate is right there. You can point to it. It’s a state that views us as an enemy. What’s the mystery?”

Bassford agrees. “I think the first thing ‘Chuck’ Clausewitz would do is wonder why the U.S. government, and the West in general, is reluctant to acknowledge ISIS as a ‘state,’” he wrote to me in an email. “ISIS controls territory, has a capital city in Raqaa, and for the most part practices a fundamentally conventional, though particularly vicious, kind of warfare. It uses terrorism, but it’s not just a terrorist group. And I also think Clausewitz would wonder why the French say they’re surprised to find themselves ‘at war’ after the Paris attack. They have been bombing ISIS for months.” While Clausewitz’s ideas are not restricted to state-on-state warfare, Bassford argues that we should accept that, for practical purposes, ISIS is a state. Indeed, in a strategy he calls “Let-the-Wookiee-Win,” we should do what we can to make ISIS more state-like. “After all, we know how to destroy states — we’re very good at it,” he argues.

One of the things that Stoker, Bassford, Johnson and many in the military find compelling about Clausewitz is that he views war as a subject that can be studied, understood and that, like engineering (say) or architecture, or any other discipline, improved on. It is possible to get good at killing, and if you’re better at it than your enemy — if you break your enemy’s will to resist (as he would say) — you’ll win. On War provides a slew of these undiluted but axiomatic understandings. Though Clausewitz was a civilized man who recognized war’s horrors, he issued these axioms with a stern warning: “Kind-hearted people might think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat an enemy without too much bloodshed,” he writes, “and might imagine this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds, it is a fallacy that must be exposed: war is such a most dangerous business that the mistakes which come from kindness are the very worst . . . This is how the matter must be seen. It would be futile — even wrong — to try and shut one’s eyes to what war really is from sheer distress at its brutality.”

It is this unblinking ability to call war what it is that has given Clausewitz such a dedicated following that large numbers of military officers have worked to grasp his thinking, and vocabulary. “Clausewitz says that the purpose of war is to achieve a particular political end,” Stoker says. “He argues that the best route to doing this is to attack the enemy’s center of gravity, the center of his strength. That might seem obvious now, but many of the most important parts of our current military thinking were first identified by him.”

Of course much of what Clausewitz tapped into in On War was a reflection of what professional soldiers already knew, and know. Thus, Union General William Tecumseh Sherman issued his famously Clausewitzian statement on war without, apparently, ever having read him. “War is cruelty. There is no use trying to reform it,” he said. “The crueler it is, the sooner it will be over.” Sherman’s unflinching calculus (that true humanity consists in waging war unrelentingly, so as to end it sooner) is, in many ways, a perfect distillation of the U.S. military’s traditional mistrust of the narrative propounded by counterinsurgency advocates that the “center of gravity in a counterinsurgency is the protection of the population that hosts it.” That might have been true in western Iraq, but few would argue that it’s the case with ISIS — particularly after the attacks in Paris. “The Germans and Japanese were held in a vice grip by their leaders in World War Two,” Christopher Bassford says, “but that didn’t stop us from burning down their cities. If it’s safer to be with ISIS than against it, ISIS will retain its hold on the population it now controls.”

In fact, Bassford’s views reflect a growing consensus inside the U.S. military’s upper echelons that a cruel war against ISIS now, no matter how distasteful, will save the lives of many decent people — including many Americans — later.

The view was most recently propounded by retired Air Force Lt. General David Deptula, during an interview on Fox News. Deptula characterized the American air offensive against ISIS as anemic and ineffective. “The ‘mother may I?’ request chain to be able to engage is inducing delay in actually being effective,” he said. Deptula argues for a more intensive and relentless air campaign, of the kind used during Operation Desert Storm, when the U.S. flew upwards of 1200 sorties each day. The difficulty with the Deptula thesis is that the U.S. would be forced to weather the international condemnation that will follow from the inevitable, perhaps substantial, increase in civilian casualties. But without such a campaign, Deptula argues, an ISIS attack on the U.S. is nearly inevitable. And, he argues, “what is the logic of a policy that restricts the application of airpower to prevent the potential of collateral damage while allowing the certainty of the Islamic State’s crimes against humanity?”[2]

While David Johnson disagrees with Deptula’s view that unleashing an air offensive would be enough to destroy ISIS (“I’ve talked with him about this,” he says), he agrees that the danger of maintaining the current course could be far worse. “This is the Steve Jobs problem,” he explains. “You go to the doctor and he says you need a major operation to take care of your cancer or it will spread. You shrug him off and try your homemade remedies, thinking you can always head back to the doctor. The problem is that by the time you decide to try the surgery the doctor says ‘sorry, it’s too late.’ That’s the fear among many in the military: that by the time we get around to it, ISIS will be stronger and tougher to dislodge. I’d feel a lot better if there were two plotters hanging out in a cave, instead of thousands streaming into a caliphate.”

Clausewitz, Johnson notes, understood this problem. “To win you have to seize the initiative and keep it,” he says, “and right now we’re not doing that. Right now the tail is wagging the dog. ISIS kills and we respond. But you know, the dog’s supposed to be in charge, not the tail.”

Bassford too is skeptical of airpower alone. “These ISIS guys ultimately will have to be dug out of their holes and slaughtered to a man by fighters on the ground,” he says, then adds that it would be far better if those fighters were Muslim: “We need to help them wipe out the stain on Islam that ISIS represents, but it really has to be their fight.”

While neither Stoker, Bassford or Johnson cited the passage from On War that best reflects this view, it is well known to both military strategists and Clausewitz scholars, and is one of his earliest and most crucial maxims: “If one side uses force without compunction, undeterred by the bloodshed it involves, while the other side refrains,” Clausewitz wrote, “the first will gain the upper hand.” For a growing number of senior U.S. military officers, and particularly for those devotees of the Prussian’s masterpiece, the escalation marked by the Paris attacks requires a shift in U.S. strategy to seize the initiative: to hit them, and relentlessly, before they hit us. Inevitably, and ultimately, such a decision will test not only ISIS’s will to resist — it will test ours.

Notes:

[1] http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Bassford/CIE/Chapter18.htm

[2] http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/11/20/signs-pentagon-moving-to-loosen-rules-isis-war.html


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Mark Perry is an author, writer and foreign policy analyst living in Arlington, Virginia. His most recent book is The Most Dangerous Man In America, The Making of Douglas MacArthur. His work appears regularly in Politico and Foreign Policy.


This article originally appeared at Strategy Bridge.
 

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http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/the-isil-war-the-real-cost-20000-wasted-missiles-14535

The ISIL War: The Real Cost of 20,000 Wasted Missiles [1]

Thanks to ISIL, the U.S. military is now running short of missiles and bombs.

Daniel L. Davis [2] [3]
Comments 25

Last Thursday USA Today published a stunning article revealing that since August 2014 the U.S. Air Force has fired more than 20,000 bombs and missiles against Islamic State (ISIS) targets in Iraq and Syria. The expenditure has, according to the article [4], depleted the Air Forces’ “stocks of munitions and prompting the service to scour depots around the world for more weapons and to find money to buy them.”

The article included a comment by a defense industry consultant lamenting the fact Congress has “capped defense spending” leaving too few missiles in the inventory. Curiously, no one seems to be asking the much more fundamental question: why should Congress appropriate money to further increase missile stockpiles when the staggering expenditure hasn’t strategically dented the non-state enemy?

In fact, it may not simply be that we have failed to defeat ISIS. The strategic situation may be worse after the expenditure of 20,000 bombs than before the first struck its target. According to a report cited by the Associated Press this past summer, a multi-agency intelligence estimate suggested that the first year of bombing not only failed to accomplish strategic objectives, but saw the ISIS threat expand.

According to the article [5] “intelligence analysts see the overall situation as a strategic stalemate: The Islamic State remains a well-funded extremist army able to replenish its ranks with foreign jihadis as quickly as the US can eliminate them. Meanwhile, the group has expanded to other countries, including Libya, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and Afghanistan.” If the situation were only that we were wasting billions of dollars on a failing strategy, it would be appalling. But there are second and third order effects at play few seem to consider which together place American national security at increasing risk.

At a time when every service chief is telling Congress that sequestration is killing readiness, the Department of Defense is now going to have to spend billions of those limited dollars to replace the missiles and bombs thus far expended, leaving even fewer dollars for readiness and training. But there is an additional consequence that should be given more consideration. The depletion of so many thousands of missiles leaves the US conventional forces with dangerously few in the event we face an unexpected conventional fight.

On August 1, 1990 anyone suggesting that in the foreseeable future the US would send half a million soldiers to fight in a full-on conventional war would have been dismissed as embarrassingly naive. Saddam Hussein grossly miscalculated the next day when he invaded Kuwait and in a day the unthinkable suddenly became probable. Given the tensions rising between Russia and the West and in the Asia Pacific with an increasingly aggressively China, the possibilities of unexpected conventional war cannot be dismissed.

If the US has launched 20,000 bombs and missiles against a non-state actor with no air force, navy, or modern army, how many might be required against a major world power with modern armed forces? What if an unexpected and unavoidable war were thrust on us in the near future? ISIS represents a legitimate terrorist threat, but is not an existential threat to the US. A war against either Russian and Chinese forces most assuredly would. How would the Department of Defense, Congress or the Administration explain to the American people that our armed forces couldn’t effectively blunt an enemy attack because we ran out of missiles?

Such a situation could be catastrophic for the United States and our interests abroad. In a time of zero sum defense dollars, it is crucial that Washington reassess its military strategy against ISIS. Hoping that we don’t get into a conventional fight in the near future while wasting limited resources on a failing strategy in the present puts our national security at unnecessary risk.

Daniel L. Davis is a widely published analyst on national security and foreign policy. He retired as a Lt. Col. after 21 years in the US Army, including four combat deployments. The views in these articles are those of the author alone and do not reflect the position of the US Government.

Image [6]: Flickr/U.S. Navy.

Tags
ISIL [7]Islamic State [8]iraq [9]Syria [10]U.S. Foreign Policy [11]
Topics
Security [12]
Regions
Middle East [13] [3]
Source URL (retrieved on December 8, 2015): http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/the-isil-war-the-real-cost-20000-wasted-missiles-14535

Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/the-isil-war-the-real-cost-20000-wasted-missiles-14535
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/daniel-l-davis
[3] http://twitter.com/share
[4] http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...iraq-syria-hellfire-missiles-drones/76741954/
[5] http://nypost.com/2015/07/31/isis-no-weaker-than-a-year-ago-despite-bombing/
[6] https://www.flickr.com/photos/naval...jwB-pAH8NF-qinzd8-5piShG-9HyWak-r52ZBj-snVYTz
[7] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/isil
[8] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/islamic-state
[9] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/iraq
[10] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/syria
[11] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/us-foreign-policy
[12] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
[13] http://nationalinterest.org/region/middle-east

_

From the comments....

mrbinga • 15 hours ago

I'm no expert but I believe history has shown that short of throwing nukes around any sort of conventional air campaign without an accompanying ground campaign is doomed to failure. Air power is great at "shaping" the battlefield and is a tremendously effective destructive force in its own right but you have to have men with guns occupying a given piece of real estate to achieve your geopolitical desires, and therein lies the problem. Any large conventional invasion and occupation by the U.S. is just not viable for a whole host of reasons that I'd imagine most everybody understands. As for relying on our supposed "Sunni Arab allies" to act in that role, that's nothing more than a wet dream. I seriously doubt that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan or any other nation in that region has any desire to get themselves drug into a protracted and bloody insurgency in any conventional sense. Especially so given that there's no foreseeable end in sight and their largely conscript armies in any event don't have a terribly impressive track record and who's rank and file probably find their beliefs better represented by islamic extremists like ISIS than they do their own corrupt dictatorships they ostensibly serve.

A.Lex • 21 hours ago

"Given the tensions rising between Russia and the West and in the Asia Pacific with an increasingly aggressively China, the possibilities of unexpected conventional war cannot be dismissed."

The author is surely not naive enough to suggest that a conflict with Russia would stay conventional for more than 2.5 seconds? If so, I really _hope_ nobody making any sort of real decision is naive as that, otherwise we're done for.

Mike Jackson • 19 hours ago

You can't bomb a force to death that exists everywhere and nowhere at the same time. Its idiocy to even try. That's not to say bombing their resources and crippling their supply chain isn't effective. I'm just saying you can obliterate ISIS with bombs. ISIS/ISIL is an idea, in some aspects, its not even physical... let that sink in... we are bombing a force that is, for all intents and purposes, not a physical state. WE ARE BOMBING GHOSTS, and the data effectively substantiates that. 20,000 bombs (roughly $1 billion+) and we MAY have killed 10,000 combatants over the past 3 years. That means at BEST, we are killing one combatant for every 2 bombs... or even more sobering 1 kill cost taxpayers any where from $50-100k for the munitions alone. That's insane.

Peace for All • 7 hours ago

As some commentators here have pointed out:

1. it was not expected that US many sorties returned without engaging because of restrictive ROE or lack of targets;

2. you cannot decisively win a war without boots on the ground; you can hurt the enemies but they will regroup unless you limit the space that they can operate by physically controlling the area that they have been displaced.

One would however need to note that without a coherent strategy to end the Syria conflict in a peaceful manner, putting boots on the ground to clear out ISIL would leave US with the baby to carry (just as in Iraq). It is obvious that US will not turn over the captured land to the Assad government forces, and turning the land over to "moderate rebels" without US presence may mean inviting attacks from Assad government forces (perhaps with the support of Russia, Iran and Iraq and Shia militarists). Whichever way you see it, US may get itself into a quagmire again if ISIL is destroyed with US ground forces before a political settlement is achieved for a post ISIL Syria. And for the US, this means a post Assad Syria.

This is another lesson for the US not to get itself involved in expensive conflicts without a plan for the end game in mind, which must be a plan that is being rigorously pursued via a coherent and flexible strategy and one which is there to support a trusted ally/friend who can the stable governance after conflict ends and not one where everyone is seen as the enemy or untrustworthy. If it is a conflict that the US finds it impossible to stay out of, then quickly identify local partners that it can work with (regardless of how unpalatable they maybe) to achieve the end game is a necessary evil. Being fixated with immediate democratisation following the defeat of the enemy may only create new conflicts within society that may not be so easily overcome when all the opposing players participating in the political game are still highly armed.

Harry Heller • 13 hours ago

Brilliant. This has been my concern, too. How much money is Obama wasting on expensive hardware because he is unwilling just to put boots on the ground - and then unleash them with orders to annihilate the radical Muslim enemy? Without ground directed fire, this is just "feel-good" bombing of sand and rocks. Total waste.

delta 5297 • 19 hours ago

That's news to me. Here I was under the impression that coalition aircraft bombing ISIS weren't expending very much ordnance for a lack of targets. How are we suddenly running out of munitions?

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Jon > delta 5297 • 11 hours ago

Reportedly, 7-10 sorties per day on average, with 70-80% returning without engaging because of the restrictive ROE.
It's not the lack of targets, it's Obama's insistence on zero civilian casualties, and the length of time required to get clearance.
Also reported, we didn't go after the oil infrastructure/trucks, because of the likely environmental damage.
Truth? Beats me...

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Swiftright Right • 19 hours ago

Considering we have faught nothing but elective wars for the last 70 years I don't think skipping one becuase were out of teh missiles is a big concern.

In the entire world their is not a single conventional theart to the existence of the USA, not one. Even a major attack like 9/11 is roughly equivalent to the yearly death toll we inflict on our self with gun violence or the equivalence of a few months worth of drunk driving deaths or a few weeks of vsnilia traffic accident deaths or a few days worth of deaths as a result of eating to much Twinkies and sodapop....

Jack M. • 6 hours ago

A silly piece written by a former Army lt. colonel who has the motive to belittle the benefits of air power. The bombing of ISIS has saved the Kurdish enclaves in northern Syria and allowed the YPG in Syria and the Iraqi government forces and Peshmerga in Iraq to push ISIS back. ISIS suffered a net loss of 9% of its territory during 2015, even as the Kurds and the indigenous Syrian opposition increased their territory. Never would have happened without the bombing. A more useful article would focus on why the USAF is scouring depots for bombs. The US spends more money on defense than Russia, China, the UK, France, india, Pakistan and Brazil combined. Why are we constantly scrounging for ordnance, parts or struggling to deal with aging systems, such as transport aircraft or ICBM facilities? With what we spend, there shouldn't be shortages. The corruption and ineptitude in spending seems to be a real story, not the drivel written above.

Mark Overholt • 16 hours ago

Conventional war with Russia is arming and supplying weapons to a proxy. unless a common wealth was attacked. AKA Afghanistan or Vietnam. it's been done before.
The likely hood of a conventional war with Russia in Syria or Iraq is slim, there could be a sparking incident but hasn't as of yet. (Turkey and an assault against a NATO member acting under the unity with NATO. (Turkey acting on it's own outside of NATO consultation for unity is not an assault against NATO,unless initiated by the opposition ) ).
That's a unilateral action just as if a nation acted without UN resolution.(which is what Turkey did) fortunately clearer heads held at bay what could have been a disaster.
Iraq in there wisdom to refuse international help in ridding ISIS from occupation endangers the world security and international national security interests............Iraq will have to reconsider or become an obstacle to international efforts to deal with there own national security interests. Meaning they either support the war against ISIS or they support ISIS.
once that choice is made it is what it is. As the Untied States has no gainful interest other than the diminished capability of ISIS to cause harm to anyone. the fact we are not bringing bodies back to Dover (which is where they are brought when soldiers die over seas a coffin draped in the American flag with honors) makes this no boots on the ground campaign PRICELESS........................
 

Housecarl

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/china-mali-relations-after-the-bamako-attacks/

China-Mali Relations After the Bamako Attacks

Chinese companies have a surprisingly large stake in Mali. How could this relationship unfold in the future?

By Benjamin David Baker
December 07, 2015

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There has been some speculation that China might be losing some of its oomph in Africa. According to Xinhua, Chinese investments on the continent have fallen by 40 percent in 2015. This has been due to a number of reasons, “including the slack global economic recovery, international commodity price fluctuations and the Ebola outbreak,” according to Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOC) spokesman Shen Danyang.

While the MOC is optimistic that these figures will recover by 2020, Chinese businesses and citizens are facing another kid of threat as well. As both Shannon Tiezzi and myself have reported for The Diplomat, Chinese citizens recently been killed in Syria and Mali by jihadist terrorists.

The three Chinese citizens murdered at the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako raise some interesting issues for Beijing’s engagement with Mali. All three, plus another four Chinese citizens who were rescued from the hotel, were senior employees with the China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), a state-owned firm.

This is indicative of China’s presence in the region. Both CRCC and the China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC) are involved in massive infrastructural projects in and around the region. Mali has been trying to diversify its economy from the exports of its natural resources, notably gold. A crucial part of this involves investments into Mali’s fledgling railways system. Considering Mali’s landlocked geographical position, this is especially urgent with regards to extending and repairing its rail links to the surrounding coastal states of Senegal and Guinea.

According to a report from Stellenbosch University in South Africa, China signed a $11 billion investment deal with Mali last year, $9.5 billion of which is slated for railway construction and repairs. Of this, $8 million is going to CREC’s construction of a 900-km railway connecting Bamako to the port capital of Conakry in Guinea. The remaining $1.5 billion is slated for CRCC’s upgrade of the existing but dilapidated 1,230-km railway between Bamako and Dakar, which currently functions as landlocked Mali’s main link to the sea.

The improved transport links would attract investors to under-explored resources, such as iron ore, bauxite, and uranium, that are bulkier and more costly to transport than gold. “The infrastructure will enable Mali to end its dependency on gold,” said Lassana Guindo, an adviser at the Malian Ministry of Mines. According to Reuters, Chinese company CGC Overseas Construction Group plans to exploit Mali’s 100 million ton iron-ore deposit at Bale, 220 km (136 miles) west of Bamako. “The company will build a steel plant and also construct a 400 megawatt power plant,” said Ousmane Mamadou Konaté, a technical adviser on a Malian delegation to China in 2014.

Aside from Bale, other iron ore deposits in the same basin are estimated to hold some 400 million tons and would all benefit from the rail project, Guindo said. Despite decreased global demand, China is still the single-largest importer for most of these resources.

Furthermore, it is believed that Mali might contain large stores of uranium and hydrocarbons. Several firms have been searching for uranium in the country’s southwestern region, and initial reports are optimistic. Until the civil war broke out in 2013, several western companies were prospecting for oil in Mali’s northern regions. Both of these are resources that China requires for its economic growth.

The Radisson Blu attack might have implications for China’s presence and ambitions in the country. During Mali’s civil war against a combination of Tuaregs, Islamists, and former fighters for Muhammar Gaddafi’s regime in Libya, Chinese economic interests in the country were mostly unharmed, being located in the south of the country. The attack in Bamako shows that China isn’t immune to the effects of terrorism, even when Chinese citizens probably aren’t the primary target. Western citizens, and particularly French and American ones, are more at risk in the current Malian context.

However, this does not mean that attacks specifically targeted at Chinese interests in Mali can’t happen in the future. There is a precedent for this; from 2007 to 2009, the Sudanese rebel group Justice and Equality Movement carried out several attacks on Chinese installations, saying that “We don’t want China. We want to expel them. We have the means … We are preparing new attacks.”

China’s position in Sudan was and remains somewhat unique due to the fact that Khartoum has been subject to Western sanctions since 1997. However, there is an interesting similarity between China’s presence in Sudan and Mali as well. Two of the People’s Liberation Army’s largest contingents are stationed in Mali and Sudan/South Sudan; they are the only Chinese United Nations forces with combat troops deployed. There has been reports that one of the objectives of the PLA forces in Sudan/South Sudan is to protect China’s economic interests in the region. If true, that could be an indicator of one of the motives behind China’s contingent operating within the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA).

If the Radisson Blu attack is an indicator, terrorism in Mali is far from defeated. China’s presence in Mali might be an interesting test case as to how Beijing’s African economic and security policies will evolve in the future.
 

Housecarl

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/12/radical-islam-in-asia-the-arc-of-al-qaeda-and-isis/

Radical Islam in Asia: The Arc of Al Qaeda and ISIS

Insight from Audrey Kurth Cronin

By Mercy A. Kuo and Angelica O. Tang
December 08, 2015

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The Rebalance authors Mercy Kuo and Angie Tang regularly engage subject-matter experts, policy practitioners and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into the U.S. rebalance to Asia. This conversation with Professor Audrey Kurth Cronin – Director of the International Security Program at George Mason University’s School of Policy, Government and International Affairs, frequent advisor to senior U.S. policymakers, and author of numerous publications, such as How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns and Ending Terrorism: A Strategy for Defeating Al-Qaeda – is the 23rd in The Rebalance Insight Series.

In Foreign Affairs (April 2015), you posited that ISIS is not a terrorist group. Briefly explain the different goals and strategies of Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

ISIS and Al Qaeda both engage in terrorism, have similar long-term goals, and were once aligned, but they differ in key ways that are vital to fighting them. Terrorist groups like Al Qaeda generally have only dozens or hundreds of members, attack civilians, do not hold territory and cannot directly confront military forces. ISIS boasts some 30,000 fighters, holds territory in both Iraq and Syria, maintains extensive military capabilities, controls lines of communication, commands infrastructure, funds itself, and engages in sophisticated military operations. It is not a “terrorist group”; it’s a pseudo-state led by a conventional army that also seeks to inspire acts of transnational terrorism.

Al Qaeda thinks of itself as the vanguard of a global movement mobilizing Muslim communities against secular rule. It is playing a long game. The establishment of a so-called caliphate is a distant, almost utopian goal; educating and mobilizing the Muslim community comes first. It seeks to train violent mujahedeen, exclusively men, to act on behalf of that community.

ISIS has already declared a “caliphate” and is attracting a large number of foreigners (men, women and even children), drawn by the potential to build a society that follows strict Muslim rules now. It is unconcerned about popular backlash. Its brutality – videotaped beheadings, mass executions – is designed to intimidate foes and suppress dissent. It appeals to people who are yearning for personal power. It is the most effective employer of targeted social media propaganda we have ever seen.

Is Asia the next theater for ISIS to expand its caliphate beyond the Middle East? If so, what is the strategic relevance of Asia or key Asian regions to ISIS?

No, Africa is the next major theatre for expansion. ISIS has expanded by developing affiliates in North Africa (especially Libya) and West Africa, where Nigeria’s Boko Haram recently pledged allegiance to the group.

But there is significant risk to Asia. A global competition is underway in the so-called “jihadist” movement: ISIS are persuading some existing Al Qaeda affiliates or splinter groups to shift their allegiance to them. It’s the current “hot brand.” In Asia, they succeeded in attracting former al-Qaeda-linked affiliates such as the Philippines’ Abu Sayyaf (although that group still pursues its own agenda). According to the head of Indonesia’s national counterterrorism agency, Islamic State may also be training fighters in Poso, a port town on the northeastern coast of Central Sulawesi.

What about the threat of foreign fighters from Asia?

ISIS’ mythical concept of a caliphate has drawn tens of thousands of gullible outsiders, including from Asia. Small numbers of foreign fighters have traveled from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, New Zealand and Australia, sometimes bringing along their families. Estimates vary widely; however, the largest numbers apparently come from Australia (between 100-250 people) and Indonesia (between 30-60).

For Asia, the danger lies in what militarily-trained ISIS foreign fighters will do if they return to their native countries, as well as whether those who have been prevented from traveling will carry out attacks at home. A powerful element of the Islamic State’s message is to goad people into violence wherever they are. Unfortunately, terrorist attacks in Asia are virtually inevitable.

What countervailing forces and social conditions in Asia could mitigate ISIS incursions?

In the short term, three things are important. First, countries must strengthen their border controls, increasing both domestic and international cooperation in policing and intelligence. Second, they must increase regional cooperation to counteract ISIS’ financing and the movement of weapons. Third, they must monitor potential risks at home, meaning both returned foreign fighters and those just inspired by ISIS. Although national perspectives can differ markedly (e.g., China’s Uighur problem is as much about a fear of separatism as it is terrorism), there is no substitute for good intelligence and regional cooperation, within the rule of law.

That does not necessarily mean treating returnees as criminals. The “caliphate” is a brutal Wahhabi Sunni Arab empire led by an Iraqi. As the truth unfolds, many foreigners are now trying to flee ISIS. Well-publicized testimonials from defectors could be a powerful counterterrorism tool. Also, efforts to counter ISIS messaging through social media, such as Malaysia’s new counter-messaging center, are vital.

In the longer run, ISIS is trying to polarize societies. Governments must address the conditions that contribute to radicalization, including discrimination, unemployment and ignorance.

What emerging, over-the-horizon challenges of violent radical Islamism in Asia will the next U.S. president likely confront?

The U.S. will be concerned about violence against Americans and American businesses in Asia, a destabilizing blow to an Asian ally or a partner, and the creation of sanctuaries for recruitment or radicalization to violent extremism, including by ISIS. Moving forward, regional efforts such as the recent discussions on extremism held during the ASEAN meetings in Kuala Lumpur and the upcoming January 2016 conference on deradicalization in the ASEAN region will be crucial to reducing the threat of ISIS in Asia for everyone.

Mercy A. Kuo is an advisory board member of CHINADebate and was previously director of the Southeast Asia Studies and Strategic Asia Programs at the National Bureau of Asian Research. Angie O. Tang is Senior Advisor of Asia Value Advisors, a leading venture philanthropy advisory firm based in Hong Kong.
 

Housecarl

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http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/monday-7-december-2015

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Hour One
Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Tom Joscelyn, FDD and Long War Journal, and Bill Roggio, FDD and Long War, in re: FDR's radio address, ____1941, on facing a new and unfamiliar kind of war in places with which Americans had no familiarity. Tom: The story is a little more complicated that ISIS claimed. Does the president still holds that al Qaeda is defeated? That shifts from day to today. ISIS gets enormous media attention, but al q pursues he opposite strategy and strikes back at ISIS in a hard way, incl in Somalia, Libya Mali. Bill: Afghan and Pakistani officials are spotty in reporting the deaths of senior Taliban leaders. The fellow reported dead is not. The fewer assets we have on the ground, the harder it gets for us to get useful info; as the US withdraws, Taliban takes over 30 districts, and 40 hotly contested. JB: A vast canvas. The struggle ahead will take a long time, lots of sacrifice, lots of learning.

Taliban emir denies reports of his death In a new audio message, Taliban emir Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour denies that he was killed in a shootout in Pakistan. Afghan officials and other sources recently said that the Taliban leader was slain by a rival commander. But Mansour dismisses these reports as mere "propaganda." READ MORE ¡ú
Islamic State issues first official statement on San Bernardino terrorist attack The Islamic State's Al Bayan "news" bulletin describes the San Bernardino terrorists as "soldiers" of the "caliphate" in English, but as "supporters" in Arabic. The group has not claimed that the shooters received any operational direction or assistance. Federal authorities are still investigating that possibility.

Islamic State-affiliated ¡®news¡¯ agency praises San Bernardino shootings The 'Amaq News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic State, issued a statement saying the San Bernardino shootings were the work of the jihadist group's "supporters." However, the message is not an official claim of responsibility and didn't include any details that were not already available in the Western press.

Why the Islamic State tells supporters to swear allegiance before dying Tashfeen Malik, one of the two San Bernardino shooters, reportedly swore allegiance to the Islamic State's Abu Bakr al Baghdadi as the attack got under way. This is consistent with what the Islamic State tells its followers to do and other terrorists have done the same in the past.
Female suicide bombers continue to strike in West Africa At least 75 women and girls have carried out suicide attacks in northwest Nigeria, northern Cameroon, and southwestern Chad since the beginning of June 2014.

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Tom Joscelyn, FDD and Long War Journal, and Bill Roggio, FDD and Long War, in re: From the Atlantic Ocean to the Hindu Kush. Southern Yemen as al Q takes over: controls a vast contiguous territory along he southern coast, grabbed from Houthis and others. Sometimes executes a bombing, but it also actually captures capitals. Recently took Zinjibar and Jarr; from ____ to Aden. AQAP has a massive war against he Houthis (who are backed by Iran) ¨C where Houthis destabilized Yemen and made sure that there was no local partner to the US. Then a lQ blds its own coalition and takes advantage of chaos to claim territory. . . . We can identify at least ten guys we've replaced the al Q leaders whom the US has "taken out." Note that Boko Haram also uses female fighters. . . . Routine suicide bombers. Nigerian mil claims this and that, but the Boko Haram threat has not at all abated. Eastern Nigeria, esp in the Chad Lake Region.

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Rubin, AEI, & Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: Lajes! Airfield in the middle of the Atlantic has been crucial through a number of wars. Can hold a few thousand personnel, but it's a ghost town, school shuttered (in perfect condition), and houses and apt bldgs are empty. A huge waste of a fantastic asset. Portugal wants the US to keep its base there; Washington is drifting off; China is snooping around and about to lease the place the US built: both a sophisticated air field and a good port. The chairman of House Intell, Devin Nunes, raised this matter; what's the pretext for leaving? . . . [Not much.] What'll happen if we leave? [Not good.] DOD plans to move this to London ¨C where it's not only vastly more expensive but nit nearly as useful. Can be 23400 mi closer to the IS, and control the mouth of the Med. Will also have a base in Walvis Bay, southern Africa. US is giving China the chance to take over a tip-top facility. Whenever a US strike facility leaves, it has to pass by the Azores; also, the Azores are the divert area for out aircraft if anything goes wrong. IF Chinese are there. this becomes very, very dangerous. US is fighting freedom-of-navigation issues in southeast Asia ¨C and now we turn over a massive airfield and port to Beijing. What is this?? Not a strategy ¨C it's a case of bureaucratic blinders. Does the US not regard China as a military power? Thinks that China doesn't have a fleet? When China starts staffing up Walvis Bay in Namibia, the Pentagon will wake up. We don't want Chinese panes flying within twelve miles of the Continental US. Our major problem is self-inflicted wounds. Sometimes a short-term investment can head off a huge, long-term expense. this is the gateway that Xi Jinping needs to make Africa take noticed. China will be in the Gulf of Aden [and Djibouti]. The head of Africom could be in the Azores instead of in Stuttgart! Azores have always been critical in transferring eqpt from the US to Europe.

Xi in Africa: China Africa Trade: President Xi Jinping Commits $60 Billion in ... Chinese President Xi Jinping made the announcement at the opening of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Johannesburg ... ; Chinese president Xi Jinping began his African tour to discuss trade http://www.businessinsider.com/chin...-critical-us-air-base-in-the-atlantic-2015-11

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: China maintains close relations with Zimbabwe but plays that down out of embarrassment. GM builds cars in China and intends to sell them in the US. GM's deliberate mercantilist plan to gut US mfrg. This is a specific car that can profitably be made in the US. Beijing for the first time ever declared a red alert, about twelve hours ago till noon Thurs: air is 40 times worse than acceptable by the UN WHO. Can't tell day from night.; schools closed, offices shut down. Also in Tienjin and neighboring provinces; covers a good portion of northeastern China. If they had democracy they could have a popular voice from the bottom up. Jack Ma of AliBaba said, "Los Angeles cleaned this up; why can't we?" -- because you don't have representative government!

Hour Two
Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Devin Nunes, Chairman of House Intelligence Committee, in re: a long, drawn-out investigation, can't rule out that this is part of a larger problem within the US. San Berdoo was precisely the scale of attack we've been worried about ¨C and more about people we don't know about. These two are exactly that. Bad actors embedded in the US. Europe now has an impossible problem ¨C so, so many and their borders are so open. This is why it's critical that if you see something worrisome, call the police immediately. A coming attack could be as large at s 9/11. So many Al Q branches have opened from Iraq to the Philippines. ISIS and al Q are the estranged sisters organizations. I know that it's tough for the president to contradict what he said in 2012, but he needs to address the fact that al Q is growing. NYPD says clearly that as much of a concern as I SIS is, it's al Q that's the monster that wants to bring down New York. ISIS has so much money that it can finance a big operation; not much info about San Berdoo ¨C could lead back to a [large organization]. The president needs to be able to say that this is Islamic terrorism, plain and simple, and the ISIS and al Q are growing, All of us in Washington needsto work together, incl having a clear picture of the intelligence so you can target it accurately. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...hp_hp-top-table-main_obama-8pm:homepage/story

¡°I commend the FBI for acknowledging the San Bernardino killings as an act of terror. It is now time for President Obama to acknowledge this act was committed by the same Islamic jihadist movement ¨C including al Qaeda and its estranged sister organization ISIS ¨C that we have battled for fifteen years. Despite the President's statements that ISIS is contained and that al Qaeda is on the run, the events in San Bernardino show that the threat is real and growing. For the sake of the safety of the American people and our allies, the President must use every available resource to take the fight to the enemy.¡± -- Devlin Nunes on Friday 4 December

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: John Fund, NRO, and David M Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re: ObL is dead but al Q is strong and growing. President Obama anent major natl events esp terrorism, he wants to seem to be the antithesis of G W Bush. When the country is on edge, you want he president to get on TV to say it'll be OK because here are the steps I'm taking that are new and different; he already suffers from a public perception that he doesn't have a handle on this and his speech did nothing to alleviate that. The pres is whistling past a natl security graveyard hoping that the next 400-odd days wont bring yet another, worse event. Hillary Clinton looks ill, being lashed to the mast of political correctness. . . . Pres Obama did not make the country feel as though someone is in charge. He seems to be trapped. I don't think he can think his way out of this. . . He doesn't have the skill set to lead the Congress, or the country when it doesn't know where it wants to go. His MO is to say, "Look, I'm smart and know what I'm doing; why doesn't the rest of the country get with the program?" . . . Had the president said he was going to blow up the ISIS oil well, might've ruined his Paris summit. [He can't do that: Pres Obama is hand in glove with Erdogan, who's making tons of money selling ISIS oil. ¨Ced] We're a few weeks away form Mrc C calling for more aggressive action.

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: The people of Venezuela have turn on the Chavistas bullies and had a landslide in midterm/parliamentary elections. How little attention the US press gave to this election, which could be the unraveling of the Chavista bloc and entire multi-nation empire. Might challenge Maduro. May release political prisoners. In 2015 had 100% inflation; all numbers of the economy are horrendous. In 2016, growth will be -6% ! Chavez and his crew have extremely close ties with Iran, which mines uranium there, and blt a cement factory, extensive mil facilities; the flight from Venezuela to Syria to Iran; 30K to 40K gents the Iran has in Venezuela. Bet that Maduro tries oppo tactics ¨C look for violence. Fireworks and Champagne in the street late at night. In France, Marine LePen's National Front won in regional elections, has become a mainstream party. Dec 13 will be the final round; Sarkozy and Hollande are scrambling, In some regions. Socialists pulled their candidates and urged their members to vote for the Conservative. Across-the board appeals. German courts were thinking of barring he farthest-Right party ¨C National Democratic Party. Finally, the Constitutional Court has agreed to have a March hearing to consider this. Yes, anti-Jewish events are much increasing, along with anti-Christian. Egypt ordering F-16s? Instead, Russian planes? Russia financing planes to the tune of $600 mil? Also, a flight from Cairo to Damascus. Delivering S300 (MU2) missile systems to Iran and using the S400 in Syria.
Kerry¡¯s ¡®one state¡¯ comments cause consternation in Israel

 U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry set off an uproar in Israel on Sunday after warning that the country, through its continued West Bank occupation, will become a ¡°binational state.¡± Kerry¡¯s words describe a scenario that would mark a failure of U.S. policy and end to Israel¡¯s existence as a country that is both Jewish and democratic.

Deutch, Frankel election advantages: new districts, no challenger
 Ted Deutch avoided a potential political headache when a prospective primary opponent said Friday she wouldn¡¯t run and endorsed his candidacy for a newly drawn, Broward-based congressional district. Stephanie Toothaker, a Fort Lauderdale lawyer with ties to former U.S. Sen. Bob Graham and his family, said last month she was considering a congressional candidacy.

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Iran does a second missile launch since it wasn't punished for the [illegal] first one.

Ballistic missile from Iran: violation of the Vienna "accord." IAEA report this weekend said Iran had continued nuclear dvpts till 2009, not 2003; and have made it impossible to set a baseline upon which the rest of the agreement can rest. Iran charging ahead and demanding money. Mrs Clinton.

Kerry ¨C today passed Mrs Clinton as the most-travelled Secretary of State. Why did he say that dvpts on the ground in the Middle East could lead to a one-state solution. Abbas is tired, Israel might collapse the PA. What he missed is that the PA has repeated failed to keep its basic commitments. Both Palestinians and Israel reject a one-state solution. The problem is that the PA consistently runs incitement ¨C brutal, racist, bigoted incitements to violence. TGM: It's a shame those million miles couldn't all have been in the same direction. PA urges Palestinian workers to quit working at their well-paying jobs in the West Bank (Palestinians and Israelis get the same wages).

Hour Three

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Arif Rafiq President, Vizier Consulting, (vizierconsulting.com), and Non-Resident Fellow, Middle East Institute ; in re: the San Bernardino shootings. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-san-bernardino-malik-pakistan-20151204-story.html

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re: It's difficult for the political left in the US today to admit the existence of evil. Current president seems to be trying to [quash] a lot of actions and discussion and just pass the whole thing on to the next president. Opinion Journal: France¡¯s Far-Right Rises The Editorial Page Writer Sohrab Ahmari on why voters are flocking to Marine Le Pen¡¯s National Front. Opinion Journal: The Gun Control Debate The Editorial Page Editor Paul Gigot on the Democratic policy priorities following the San Bernardino terrorist a . . .

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Josh Rogin, Bloomberg View, in re: Administration policy hitherto has been to negotiate with Assad to get him to leave. That plan may no longer be feasible. Then that Assad needs to stay in charge [to keep everything from, in effect, blowing up]. Last night Pres Obama said not a word on the matter. In the interim, the policy looks muddled and incoherent. What they're thinking about is, How do we advance this issue? Maybe to concede it all to Russia and Iran. As they say, "Once you've lost, you've got nothing to lose." . . . Turkey, Qatar, Saudi, Jordan, have been supporting the rebels against Assad. They also hold that there's no way to defeat ISIS with Assad in place. Both Democrats and Republicans have been supporting the rebels; haven't been consulted at all while the Obama Adm in effect has dinner with Assad. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-07/obama-no-longer-seems-sure-assad-must-go

Monday 7 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Larry Johnson, No Quarter, in re: When It Comes to Fighting the Islamic State, Obama Is Lost A fool in the wilderness. That is Barack Obama. His ridiculous performance last night exposed his buffoonery and delusion. Here was the critical take . . . How Delusional Is Barack Obama? We will find out tonight. Barack Obama is set to speak to the nation in between the end of the NFL Red Zone and...

For audio please go to the site.....
 
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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
The article regarding the Azores from last week......


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.businessinsider.com/chin...-critical-us-air-base-in-the-atlantic-2015-11

China may be trying to take over a critical US air base in the Atlantic

Commentary Magazine
Michael Rubin, Commentary Magazine
Nov. 30, 2015, 11:28 AM
Comments 68

Over Thanksgiving, I briefly visited the Azores, an archipelago in the middle of the North Atlantic, home to Lajes Field, a Portuguese Air Force Base that's also home to the US Air Force's 65th Air Base Wing.

The US has had almost a century of interaction with the Azores. During World War I, the US Navy briefly occupied Ponta Delgada, from which it flew hydroplanes to help spot German submarines. With the end of the war, the American contingent returned home, but various Azores airfields served as waypoints as transatlantic aviation developed.

During World War II, however, Lajes Field became a significant base under British control from which both US and British planes flew missions to protect Atlantic shipping. The US Navy also used it as a blimp waystation.

In 1946, Lajes reverted to Portuguese control, but Washington and Lisbon agreed that the US could continue to use the field. With the creation of NATO, Lajes became Portugal’s greatest military asset and contribution to the alliance.

By the 1950s, tanker aircraft at Lajes became important for aerial refueling for US military aircraft and, as the Cold War solidified, the Azores became an important asset to enable US forces to better track Soviet submarines and naval movements. During the 1980s, Lajes also was home to an airborne command post for the commander of US forces Europe.

Lajes was also crucial to Operation Nickel Grass, the US airlift to supply Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur war, and as a way station as US forces moved assets to the Persian Gulf to liberate Kuwait in 1991. Just days before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, it was in the US-run club house at Lajes Field that President George W. Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar, and Portuguese Prime Minister José Manuel Durão Barroso met to cement the “coalition of the willing.”

Needless to say, the Azores’ strategic location has been an asset to which generations of American policymakers were indifferent until a crisis struck at which point it became essential. At the same time, Lajes Field became an important symbol of the US-Portugal relationship as generations of Portuguese on Terceira Island grew up working and living among Americans.

Today, however, Lajes Field has the atmosphere of a ghost town. Fewer than 200 American personnel remain stationed at Lajes. At lunch or dinner, the dining room hosts no more than a dozen people. Office and administrative buildings are well-maintained but vacant. In the subdivisions closest to the base, only two or three townhouses are occupied along entire blocks.

Last summer, the base school closed. While the purpose of Lajes was not to provide welfare to the Portuguese, the abrupt withdrawal of US personnel has left the island in a crisis and looking for alternatives.

Here, China has offered to fill the gap. Three years ago, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made a stopover in Terceira, an episode whose context author and longtime Asia expert Gordon Chang described:

On June 27 [2012] a plane carrying Wen Jiabao made a “technical” stop on the island of Terceira, in the Azores … Wen’s Terceira walkabout, which followed a four-nation visit to South America, largely escaped notice at the time, but alarm bells should have immediately gone off in Washington and in European capitals. For one thing, Wen’s last official stop on the trip was Santiago, the capital of Chile. Flights from Chile to China normally cross the Pacific, not the Atlantic, so there was no reason for his plane to be near the Azores.

Moreover, those who visit the Azores generally favor other islands in the out-of-the-way chain. Terceira, however, has one big attraction for Beijing: Air Base No. 4.

Better known as Lajes Field, the facility where Premier Wen’s 747 landed in June is jointly operated by the U.S. Air Force and its Portuguese counterpart. If China controlled the base, the Atlantic would no longer be secure. From the 10,865-foot runway on the northeast edge of the island, Chinese planes could patrol the northern and central portions of the Atlantic and thereby cut air and sea traffic between the US and Europe. Beijing would also be able to deny access to the nearby Mediterranean Sea.

And China could target the American homeland. Lajes is less than 2,300 miles from New York, shorter than the distance between Pearl Harbor and Los Angeles.

Taxi drivers are still talking about the Chinese visit. The Chinese advance team hired 100 at rates far above normal just to sit at a staging area in case they were needed. Chinese officials rented out whole hotel floors and re-furnished them, in effect renovating them for free as they left the upgrades behind.

While Terceira remains pro-American and locals understand the risks of a Chinese presence at the airfield, there is also a resignation that they may be given no choice should the White House and Pentagon continue their drawdown.

screen_shot_2015-11-30_at_10_09_51_am.jpg

http://static6.businessinsider.com/...564/screen_shot_2015-11-30_at_10_09_51_am.jpg

The airfield is not Terceira’s only asset in which the Chinese have interest. Locals also describe growing Chinese interest to upgrade Praia da Vitória, the island’s main port, just a couple miles from the base. As the Chinese develop a blue-water navy, a logistical hub in the Azores that would be upgraded under the guise of civilian traffic but to a standard that could accommodate Chinese naval vessels, cannot be dismissed.

Losing Lajes — especially to the Chinese — confirms cross-administration shortsightedness that increasingly puts North Atlantic and US security at risk. Almost a decade ago, the Defense Department closed the US Naval Air Station in Keflavik, Iceland. The Cold War was over, both the Pentagon and Langley insisted, ignoring both Russia’s military build-up and its reversion to a Cold War posture. The Keflavik base was once vital to secure shipping routes and trace Soviet submarines.

Now, the US has far fewer defenses even as Russia has upgraded its submarine fleet. To end the US presence in Iceland was bad enough. The whole point of bases is to have them when you need them and, unlike many of the facilities the Pentagon maintains in Great Britain or Germany, the strategic location of Iceland and the Azores means that any base closure also means losing an asset that cannot be covered from a base relatively close by.

There is a remedy, however. For several years, the Pentagon has been considering where to locate a new intelligence complex, finally choosing Royal Air Force Croughton in England over Lajes Field. The Pentagon has suggested that locating the facility in the Azores rather than Great Britain would increase its cost by more than $1 billion, though the numbers suggest they have that calculation backward.

Not only does Lajes have many structures already standing that would otherwise need to be torn down, but the cost of living is much less on Terceira than in the UK — putting aside widespread suspicion that European Command picked the UK over the Azores simply because most personnel would rather live in the former.

The simple fact is that maintaining the Azores as an asset — and denying it to the Chinese — makes long-term strategic sense. It’s long past time US officials consider the forest rather than the trees when making such decisions. Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) might be waging a one-man crusade to force the Pentagon to choose Lajes. But that doesn’t mean he’s wrong. Sometimes, it’s healthy to allow common sense to triumph over bureaucratic inertia.

It’s not just a matter of the intelligence center; nor is it a question of duty to Portugal, an ally in need that stood by the United States when US interests were at stake. Rather, it’s a recognition that the US faces adversaries who will seek advantage of any opportunity the US presents.

For the White House and the Pentagon to allow China a foothold in the North Atlantic would be beyond Beijing’s wildest dreams.

Read the original article on Commentary Magazine. Copyright 2015. Follow Commentary Magazine on Twitter.
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/will-drawing-new-borders-create-and-sustain-peace

Will drawing new borders create and sustain peace?

Sholto Byrnes
December 8, 2015 Updated: December 8, 2015 03:06 PM

Could we be facing the prospect of boundaries in the Middle East being redrawn, or seeing states reconstituted out of all recognition? In the past week, two experts have suggested this is the only viable solution to the civil wars in Iraq and Syria and to defeating ISIL.

Anatol Lieven, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and a former chair of international relations and terrorism studies at King’s College, London, advocates “the creation of fully autonomous areas in Sunni northern Iraq and eastern Syria, along similar lines to the present Kurdish region of Iraq and with full control over their internal affairs”.

Writing in Foreign Affairs, the scholar Barak Mendelsohn goes further. American “attachment to the artificial Sykes-Picot borders demarcated by France and Britain a century ago no longer makes sense”, he argues, adding that Syria and Iraq are finished as unitary states. He proposes “an independent Sunni state that would link Sunni-dominated territories on both sides of the border”.

This sounds remarkably radical, but US vice president Joe Biden, for one, can feel somewhat justified after the fact. He had suggested tripartite autonomy in Iraq nearly 10 years ago – “giving each ethno-religious group – Kurd, Sunni Arab and Shiite Arab – room to run its own affairs”. He may not have included the Sunni areas of Syria at that point, but then that was before Bashar Al Assad declared war on his own people, and before the rise of ISIL and the effective disappearance of the border with Iraq.

Drastic measures may be necessary to restore peace. And the boundaries negotiated in 1916 by Sir Mark Sykes for Britain and Francois Georges-Picot for France were not only artificial, they were suspiciously straight. Sykes declared: “I should like to draw a line from the ‘e’ in Acre to the last ‘k’ in Kirkuk.” Moreover, the borders were agreed on without the knowledge or participation of any of those inhabiting the lands being dismembered by the imperial powers.

Not obviously present, either, is the glue that could hold these states together again. Baathist nationalism is a spent and discredited force, and when even getting all the various factions around a table is a near impossibility, locating a creed which could unite the populations of these two countries will be a Herculean task.

There may be a logic to partition, then. If separate states for Sunnis, Shias, Alawites and Kurds is what is necessary to keep a new peace, then legalistic niceties about maintaining the integrity of states that were only created in the 20th century should not stand in the way.

What is worrying, however, is the implication: that states can only be stable and have a sense of internal coherence if they are based on a single ethnicity or culture. This is, after all, effectively what is being said about Iraq and Syria. Some countries are constituted more or less on those lines, for reasons of history or geography, with Korea, Japan, Portugal and Poland being statistically among the most ethnically and culturally homo*genous.

But many others have long contained significant minorities who at the very least have been tolerated, and at best have been regarded as contributing to an enriching diversity. And surely this, not separation, is the model we would rather encourage.

I wrote recently about the glories of Andalusia, where Muslims, Christians and Jews built a civilisation hundreds of years ahead of a Europe still mired in the Dark Ages. The Ottoman and Roman empires were also remarkable for their diversity. In the former, while the sultan was Turkish, a high proportion of Grand Viziers were Albanian; in the latter, emperors hailed from Spain, Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe and across the territories they ruled.

The United States of America today is, in its finer moments, an example of a happily diverse nation which aims, as per the motto inscribed on its Great Seal, for “e pluribus unum” – out of many, one. Proof that this remains the vision of many came this week, when most of the Republican presidential candidates condemned Donald Trump’s bizarre and divisive call to ban Muslims from temporarily entering the country.

If such unity is now thought to be unachievable in Syria and Iraq, Mr Biden's endorsement of a semi-dismembered Iraq may now seem to have been ahead of its time. But it is worth remembering that it was inspired by what now appears to be a failure – the divided Bosnia that was the result of the Dayton Peace Accords in 1995. It may have been true, as Biden wrote in 2006, that “Bosnians have lived a decade in relative peace and are now slowly strengthening their common central government”.

Today, however, forgiveness and reconciliation are absent, and the structures created to keep Bosniaks and Serbs apart but still within the same state have burdened them with a sclerosis-inducing number of administrative layers. Unemployment is rampant, racial divides are entrenched and history – such as the instances of genocide – is being denied in some quarters. If this is what success looks like, it is not going to gladden the hearts of many in Syria and Iraq.

It may be that the boundaries of those states were hastily and thoughtlessly drawn, and perhaps re-delineating them, either within or without, will be necessary.

Peace is always a prize. But it should not be forgotten that, just as in Bosnia, peoples of different creeds and ethnicities had lived together mostly harmoniously for decades before the triumph of those who sowed narrowness and hatred. A new map of the Middle East may represent hope for the future – but it will also be a monument to the failures of the past.

Sholto Byrnes is a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malaysia
 

Ragmann

Contributing Member
Housecarl, I've never thanked you for all you do here on TB. I am now, thank you very much.
 

brudog

Veteran Member
Thank you HC,for the important updates....
N.K. Should be feeling really ready about now....Jan. weather forecast for freezing(tank) weather?
Where is China Connection?
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Housecarl, I've never thanked you for all you do here on TB. I am now, thank you very much.

Thank you HC,for the important updates....
N.K. Should be feeling really ready about now....Jan. weather forecast for freezing(tank) weather?
Where is China Connection?

You guys are most welcome. Please feel free to contribute to the thread; and that goes for everyone........

:dot5::dot5::dot5:

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-building-new-missile-defense-system-2015-12

The US is building a new advanced missile defense system — and Iran could be one reason why

Armin Rosen
9 hours ago
Comments 8

Iran just launched a ballistic missile in apparent violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions.

On Tuesday, Reuters reported that Iran "tested a liquid-fueled missile ... capable of carrying a nuclear warhead" last month, citing two anonymous US officials.

The test would mark Iran's second illicit ballistic-missile launch since the landmark nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was reached between Iran and a US-led group of six countries earlier this year.

Iran also tested a long-range, nuclear-capable Emad-class missile in October.

The July nuclear deal is aimed at implementing a number of non-binding controls on Iran's ability to stockpile fissile materials for a nuclear weapon over the next 15 years, in exchange for the lifting of most US and EU and all UN sanctions on the country.

The deal's implementation also supersedes all previous UN Security Council resolutions related to Iran's nuclear program. So though the two missile tests are illegal under the current international framework, Iran will only be "'called upon'" to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons for up to eight years" once the JCPOA goes into effect, according to Reuters.

The ballistic tests might complicate the deal's implementation. Iran has violated UNSC resolutions and launched nuclear-capable long-range missiles — at the same time it's agreed to a series of over decade-long limitations on its nuclear program. This contradictory behavior that might suggest a split within Iran's notoriously fictionalized regime.

But the test probably won't come as much of a surprise to US officials, as there have been two major indications that the US didn't think nuclear diplomacy would be enough to arrest Iran's ballistic-missile progress.

First, the US's top missile defense official expected these kinds of tests to take place. Vice Admiral James Syring, the head of the US Missile Defense Agency, testified before congressional subcommittees on June 11, 2014, and March 19, 2015. Both times, he said he anticipated major Iranian ballistic missile advances in the near term.

In his June 2014 testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee's defense subcommittee, Syring explicitly warned "Iran could develop and test an ICBM capable of reaching the United States by 2015."

His assessment echoed deputy defense Secretary M. Elaine Bunn's April 2, 2014, congressional testimony that Iran had the capability and intention of developing long-range, space-capable weapons systems.

"While Iran has not yet deployed an ICBM, its continued efforts on space launch vehicles, along with its desire to deter the United States and our allies, provide Iran with both the means and the motivation to develop longer-range missiles, including an ICBM," Bunn told the Senate Armed Forces Committee's subcommittee on strategic forces.

In his March 2015 testimony before the House Armed Services Committee's subcommittee on strategic forces, Syring was less specific about Iran's missile-test plans. But he laid out a picture of a country looking to expand, rather than curtail, its capabilities.

"Iran has publicly stated it intends to launch a space-launch vehicle as early as this year (2015) that could be capable of intercontinental ballistic missile ranges if configured as such," Syring said. "Iran also has steadily increased its ballistic missile force, deploying next-generation short- and medium-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs and MRBMs) with increasing accuracy and new submunition payloads."

Ballistic development was also apparently integral to Iran's future military posture.

"Tehran’s overall defense strategy relies on a substantial inventory of theater ballistic missiles capable of striking targets in southeastern Europe," Syring said.

Both Syring and Bunn's assessments came well after the implementation of the interim nuclear agreement with Iran, which was reached in November 2013 and set the stage for the series of negotiations that culminated in the final landmark deal. Even during negotiations for a major arms control accord, top US missile defense officials did not expect Iran to slow its missile development.

And the US recently restarted a missile defense program that's especially well-suited to countering an emerging Iranian capability. In August, nearly a month after the JCPOA was reached, the Department of Defense awarded a $9.8 million contract to Boeing to "define a concept" for a multiple-kill vehicle or multiple-object kill vehicle (MVK). An MKV is an anti-missile system in which a single interceptor launches several projectiles that can destroy multiple incoming targets.

An MKV program was killed in 2009 shortly after the start of Barack Obama's first term as president, but reintroduced under the May 2015 National Defense Authoritarian Act.

According to Space News, the MKV fills a gap in US missile defense capabilities. In one possible attack scenario, an adversary would launch warheads along with decoys meant to fool existing defense systems.

An MVA is supposed to be capable of destroying both the decoy and the actual warhead. It's also possible an adversary would launch multiple missile salvos specifically meant to fool US missile defense that an MKV would still be capable of intercepting.

In his March 2015 testimony, Syring touted the benefits of the MKV, claiming it would "revolutionize" US missile defense. He also identified Iran as one country pursuing the kinds of capabilities that the MKV is almost purpose-built to counter.

"Iran ... has publicly demonstrated the ability to launch simultaneous salvos of multiple rockets and missiles," Syring said.

According to Space News, the Pentagon aims for the MKV to go online by 2020. Assuming the JCPOA is implemented next year, the nuclear deal's nonbinding limits on Iran's ballistic missile program will be lifted in 2024.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2044

12/8/2015

U.S. Mulling Permanent Missile Defense System in Guam

By Jon Harper

The U.S. military is considering deploying additional defenses against enemy ballistic missiles in the Pacific region by permanently basing a terminal high altitude area defense system on Guam, the commander of U.S. Army Pacific said Dec. 8.

The Defense Department has been rotationally deploying THAAD to the island since April 2013 in response to North Korean threats. A THAAD battery — which consists of a mobile launcher, interceptors, radar and a fire control network — is capable of shooting down incoming missiles inside or outside the atmosphere with “hit to kill” interceptors, according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.

“We … are proceeding toward a permanent stationing of that element in Guam,” Army Gen. Vincent Brooks told reporters at a breakfast in Washington, D.C.

Putting THAAD there on a full-time basis would offer several benefits, he noted.

“It’s first about making sure we have a continuous presence” for readiness and deterrence purposes, he said.

Such a move could also have budgetary implications. THAAD unit rotations are currently funded through the base budget rather than supplemental overseas contingency operations funds, Brooks noted. Permanently stationing an element in Guam could save money versus deploying United States-based units on lengthy rotations, the regional Army chief said.

“There’s a fiscal aspect of this also,” he said. “The more cost we have to apply to rotations the fewer the dollars we have to apply to actual operations.”

Ending the extended rotations will also ease the burden on troops and their families and give the Pentagon more flexibility in deploying U.S.-based missile defense to other hotspots, he said.

Brooks did not provide a specific timetable for when THAAD will be permanently based in Guam.

North Korea’s missile capabilities and its demonstrated willingness to use force is the “biggest concern” driving U.S. missile defense efforts in the region, he said.

“That is a very dangerous proposition,” he said. “Knowing that [they] have long-range ballistic missile capabilities, potentially even nuclear capabilities … we have to have defenses in place.”

U.S. officials believe that Pyongyang is trying to miniaturize nuclear warheads so that they could be delivered via missile. “We can’t certify [that they have developed that capability] yet but we have every expectation that they’re moving that way,” Brooks said.

Brooks declined to comment on the possibility of deploying THAAD in South Korea to bolster missile defenses there. “That is the kind of discussion that the Republic of Korea is going to have, is having, will have, if they’re interested, with the U.S. government,” he said.

Sending THAAD to Japan — another major U.S. ally — would be beneficial, Brooks said.

“Anything that increases defenses in the region against … the North Korean threat is helpful,” he said. “I would suspect that it wouldn’t be the only thing that they [Japanese officials] are considering. … We have to see which way that goes, but that has not been one of the detailed discussions that I have been involved in.”
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.janes.com/article/56481/poland-receives-final-leopard-2a5-mbts-from-germany

Land Platforms

Poland receives final Leopard 2A5 MBTs from Germany

Remigiusz Wilk, Warsaw - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly

07 December 2015

1646329_-_main.jpg

http://www.janes.com/images/assets/481/56481/1646329_-_main.jpg

Poland has received its final batch of Leopard 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) from Germany, it has been announced.

The MBTs, plus 220 additional vehicles, were purchased for EUR187 million (USD203 million) in November 2013 from ex-German Army stocks to equip the 34th Armoured Cavalry Brigade, based in Zagan.

Speaking to IHS Jane's , Captain Rafal Nowak from 34th Brigade said, "On 28 November we received the last tranche of Leopard 2A5 tanks. Now the brigade is fully equipped with 14 Leopard 2A4 and 105 newer 2A5 MBTs. We expect that all remaining vehicles, including trucks and Bergepanzer 2 armoured recovery vehicles, will be delivered to mid-2016."
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://abcnews.go.com/International...zes-closer-us-defense-ties-singapore-35639530

China Criticizes Closer US Defense Ties With Singapore

By The Associated Press
BEIJING — Dec 8, 2015, 10:25 AM ET

China on Tuesday criticized enhanced U.S. defense ties with Singapore that include the deployment of U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft to the Southeast Asian city state.

A stronger U.S. military presence does "not conform to the common and long-term interests among the regional countries," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chuying told reporters at a daily briefing.

"So we hope the relevant side does more to enhance mutual trust among regional countries, and thus benefit the regional peace and development," Hua said.

Her comments followed the signing of an enhanced defense cooperation agreement on Monday between U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Singapore Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen.

Singapore has long provided logistical support for U.S. military ships and aircraft, and the new agreement will take cooperation to a higher level, including in battling nonconventional threats such as piracy, transnational terrorism and cyberdefense, according to a Defense Department statement.

The two officials also welcomed the inaugural deployment of a Poseidon aircraft from Dec. 7 to 14, saying it would help with "maritime security efforts," among other areas.

Such planes form part of the U.S. military presence in and around the South China Sea, where China has been taking increasingly robust steps to uphold its sovereignty claims against neighbors such as Vietnam and U.S. ally the Philippines.

Those moves have included the building of new islands by piling sand on top of coral reefs, followed by the construction of harbors, airstrips and other infrastructure.

The U.S. and others have accused China of raising tensions in an increasingly militarized region and called for an end to the island building. Beijing has rejected the accusations against it and holds that the U.S. has no right to comment on South China Sea territorial disputes.

China is also adamantly opposed to U.S. surveillance missions off its coastline, although the sides recently signed an agreement to avoid unexpected incidents that could lead to confrontations.
 

Housecarl

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151209/ml--syria-8ff5b706a4.html

Syrian rebels start pulling out of last stronghold in Homs

Dec 9, 9:11 AM (ET)
By ALBERT AJI

(AP) Damaged shops are seen with new doors in the old city of Homs, Syria on Tuesday,...
Full Image

HOMS, Syria (AP) — Hundreds of Syrian civilians and rebels began pulling out of the last opposition-held neighborhood of the city of Homs on Wednesday as part of a local deal with government forces that would return the entire central city to government control.

A few thousand insurgents have been holed up in Waer district, which government forces had blockaded for nearly three years, only sporadically allowing in food.

The governor of Homs, Talal Barazzi, told The Associated Press on the outskirts of Waer that 272 gunmen and 447 civilians left the district on Wednesday in an evacuation process that was presided over by the United Nations.

Once the evacuation is completed, the city of Homs, once dubbed as "the capital of the revolution," will fully return to government control.

(AP) A woman pushes a stroller in an area adjacent to the Waer neighborhood in the...
Full Image

The deal is similar to one struck in May 2014 in Homs' Old City. There, the government assumed control of the quarter after about 2,000 rebels were granted safe passage to opposition areas north of Homs. The area was destroyed and thousands of civilians were killed or forced to flee, and rebels surrendered only after they were starved and outgunned.

Still, officials hope that such local deals can be replicated across Syria to create pockets of peace and a climate conducive to peace talks. The international community is making its most serious push yet for a cease-fire and negotiations to end the Syrian conflict that began in 2011.

In Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, Syrian opposition groups and rebel factions opened a meeting on Wednesday with the aim of forming a unified front ahead of the proposed peace talks with representatives of Assad's government.

A peace plan agreed to last month by 20 nations meeting in Vienna set a Jan. 1 deadline for the start of negotiations between Assad's government and opposition groups.

U.N. and Red Crescent officials were on hand on the outskirts of Waer Wednesday to oversee implementation of the deal, which saw the gunmen and some of their families transported to areas further north in Hama and Idlib province. The insurgents included members of the al-Qaida branch in Syria, the Nusra Front, and an array of extremist and more moderate rebels fighting to topple President Bashar Assad.

Also, several wounded civilians were loaded into ambulances waiting just outside the district.

Journalists were not allowed to approach the civilians and gunmen as they left Waer. An AP crew saw gunmen getting into buses, their faces covered with scarves to avoid identification. The bus windows were covered with curtains, but several of the gunmen, some of them with light beards, could be seen peeking from behind them. Several gave the thumbs-up sign.

In one of the blue civilian buses, a man grinned and waved from his window seat, while a little girl in the seat behind waved. At least one person with a missing leg was seen walking on crutches and assisted by paramedics into a waiting bus.

The convoy of at least 10 white buses carrying civilians and seven green buses carrying gunmen then left Waer. A U.N. vehicle and Syrian army pickup truck mounted with a machinegun drove in between each bus carrying civilians, while U.N. and Red Crescent vehicles bracketed each bus carrying rebel fighters.

"With this agreement, Homs will now be a safe place free of weapons and gunmen," said Barazzi, the Homs governor.

The truce deal also stipulates that the government in Damascus release an unspecified number of prisoners from Syrian jails, in addition to the release of some civilians and militants who were kidnapped by the gunmen in Waer.

The Waer deal is similar to one struck in May 2014 in Homs' Old City. There, the government assumed control of the quarter after about 2,000 rebels were granted safe passage to opposition areas north of Homs. The area was destroyed and thousands of civilians were killed or forced to flee, and rebels surrendered only after they were starved and outgunned.

---

Associated Press writers Aya Batrawy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Zeina Karam in Beirut contributed to this report.
 

Housecarl

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151209/ml--gulf_summit-5b3f4be32c.html

Gulf summit on regional security begins in Saudi Arabia

Dec 9, 5:42 AM (ET)

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Royalty and officials from around the Gulf have arrived in Saudi Arabia to meet on regional security issues.

The two-day summit began Wednesday in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Saudi state television showed dignitaries from around the Gulf meeting with Saudi King Salman after arriving at the capital's international airport.

Also on hand to meet the Gulf leaders was the king's son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who also serves as the kingdom's defense minister. Interior Minister and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, the king's nephew, also was there.

The meeting comes as a Saudi-led coalition battles a Shiite rebel group in Yemen and amid concerns about the deal between Iran and world powers over the Islamic Republic's contested nuclear program.
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151209/ml--saudi-syria-opposition-dd485c4c75.html

Syrian opposition groups meet in Saudi Arabia to close ranks

Dec 9, 7:26 AM (ET)
By ABDULLAH A L-SHIHRI

(AP) A man smokes on the grounds of a destroyed building in the old city of Homs, Syria...
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RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Syrian opposition groups and rebel factions began talks in the Saudi capital of Riyadh on Wednesday in an effort to form a unified front ahead of proposed peace negotiations with Syrian President Bashar Assad's government.

The meeting is taking place under the auspices of Saudi Arabia, a key backer of Sunni opposition blocs pushing for Assad's ouster.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir wished the group success at the start of their talks before leaving the closed-door session, according to a statement released to the media.

The nearly five-year civil war in Syria has killed more than a quarter of a million people and triggered a refugee crisis of massive proportions.

(AP) A woman walks past the shell of buildings destroyed in the old city of Homs, Syria...
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The stakes are high for the two-day Riyadh meeting, during which the disparate and often competing opposition factions will be held to a tight deadline to agree on the outlines of a political solution to the crisis, as well as on who should represent them in the proposed talks with Assad's government.

A peace plan agreed to last month by 20 nations meeting in Vienna set a Jan. 1 deadline for the start of negotiations between Assad's government and opposition groups.

However, signs of divisions among the participants emerged quickly, when Ahrar al-Sham, one of the most powerful rebel factions in Syria, released a statement suggested a compromise vision for the country's future remains far from reach.

The ultraconservative group objected to the presence of some of the other participants at the meeting, claiming they are "closer to the (Syrian) regime than they are to the revolution," and the lack of proportional representation of some of the other Islamist groups fighting on the ground in Syria. It did not elaborate.

The group also vowed to "preserve the Islamic identity of our people, as well as the principles of our orthodox religion" and said it will oppose any conference outcomes that contradict its principles.

The Associated Press received a copy of the names of the delegates in attendance from a Saudi official close to the talks. The official, who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release the information, said some of the delegates met with Western and Russian diplomats in Riyadh ahead of the talks.

The United States and its allies are calling on the opposition to work toward a consensus ahead of the negotiations intended to lead to a transitional period in Syria and Assad's eventual removal.

U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby stressed on Tuesday that the meetings in Riyadh will affect future negotiations.

"We're grateful for this meeting that the Saudis have convened and led. We're going to be watching the outcomes, obviously, very, very closely," he said.

The largest bloc at the meeting, with around 20 delegates, is the Western-backed opposition group known as the Syrian National Coalition. Also in attendance are representatives of the Syria-based National Coordination Body. In total, fewer than 10 women are taking part.

Rebel factions at the talks include the Western-backed Free Syrian Army, the Saudi-backed Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham — groups that had long rejected any negotiations with Assad's government so long as he remained in power.

Notably absent were Kurdish opposition factions, such as the People's Protection Units, which is known by its Kurdish acronym the YPG. It's the main Kurdish fighting force battling the Islamic State group in Syria. However, there are ethnic Kurds at the talks from among the broader opposition groups invited.

The YPG is participating in a concurrent conference in Syria's northern province of Hassakeh that is unrelated to the Riyadh gathering and that is led by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, of which the YPG is a member.

Over the past year, ties between Saudi Arabia and Turkey have strengthened around their mutual support for Sunni groups fighting Assad's Iranian-backed government. The decision to exclude Kurdish groups is widely seen as a gesture to appease Turkey, which is wary of Kurdish ambitions for an independent state in the region.

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Associated Press writers Bradley Klapper in Washington and Zeina Karam in Beirut contributed to this report.
 
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