WAR 11-28-2015-to-12-04-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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(191) 11-07-2015-to-11-13-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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(192) 11-14-2015-to-11-20-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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(193) 11-21-2015-to-11-27-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151127/eu-turkey-journalists-jailed-d17a4dd97f.html

Hundreds protest jailing of 2 journalists in Turkey

Nov 27, 5:47 PM (ET)

(AP) In this Thursday, Nov. 26, 2015 photo, Can Dundar, right, the editor-in-chief of...
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ISTANBUL (AP) — Hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Istanbul office of an opposition newspaper Friday, accusing the government of silencing critics and attempting to cover-up a scandal after two journalists were jailed on terror and espionage charges for their reports on alleged Turkish arms smuggling to Syria.

Cumhuriyet newspaper's editor-in-chief Can Dundar and the paper's Ankara representative Erdem Gul, were sent to a prison in Istanbul late on Thursday, accused of willingly aiding a terror organization and revealing state secrets.

The incident comes amid deepening concerns over media freedoms in Turkey, which aspires to join the European Union.

In May, the paper published what it said were images of Turkish trucks carrying ammunition to Syrian militants.

(AP) In this June 3, 2015 file photo, Can Dundar, the editor-in-chief of...
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The images reportedly date back to January 2014, when local authorities searched Syria-bound trucks, touching off a standoff with Turkish intelligence officials. Cumhuriyet said the images were proof that Turkey was smuggling arms to rebels in Syria.

The government had initially denied the trucks were carrying arms, maintaining that the cargo consisted of humanitarian aid. However, some officials later suggested that the trucks were in fact carrying arms or ammunition destined to Turkmen in Syria.

Prosecutors launched an investigation into the journalists after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan filed a criminal complaint.

Crowds filled the yard and a street outside of Cumhuriyet's headquarters, chanting: "Free press cannot be silenced."

Opposition legislator Baris Yarkadas said: "The government does not want any journalist to see what kind of a calamity they have involved Turkey in."

Mark C. Toner, deputy U.S. State Department spokesman, said in a statement that the U.S. is troubled by the arrests.

"The investigation, criminal charges, and arrest raise serious concerns about the Turkish government's commitment to the fundamental principle of media freedom," the statement said. "These events are only the latest in a series of judicial and law enforcement actions taken under questionable circumstances against Turkish media outlets critical of the government."

At a separate protest in Ankara, police used tear gas to break up a gathering of journalists hoping to march to Cumhuriyet's office in the city.

The U.S. Embassy expressed concern over the arrests of Dundar and Erdem and at the apparent pressure being exerted on Cumhuriyet.

"We hope the Turkish courts and authorities will uphold the fundamental principle of media freedom enshrined in the Turkish Constitution," the Embassy said on Twitter.
 
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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151127/ml-tunisias-troubles-fdb70e9ab6.html

Tunisia, targeted anew, faces intelligence challenge

Nov 27, 1:47 PM (ET)
By BOUAZZA BEN BOUAZZA

(AP) Tunisian citizens leave flowers and light up candles at Mohamed V avenue in memory...
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TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — An attack by Islamic State militants on Tunisia's presidential guard has left this North African country, its economy and its democracy even more vulnerable just days before four Tunisians head to collect the Nobel Peace Prize.

Five years ago, a desperate Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire, unleashing a pro-democracy movement that swept the Arab world. This week, a Tunisian street vendor blew himself up on a presidential bus, killing 12 others in the name of the Islamic State and further darkening hopes for this country's economy and newfound freedoms.

Alone among the nations that underwent the turmoil of the Arab Spring, Tunisia has emerged as a democracy, but just this last year has seen three devastating terrorist attacks claimed by the Islamic state that killed more than 70 people, mainly tourists and security forces.

What Tunisia needs now, analysts and the government say, is better intelligence and jobs for youth who see holy war as their only future without resorting to the brutal tactics that first sparked the revolution.

(AP) Tunisian citizens leave flowers and light up candles at Mohamed V avenue in memory...
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After each attack, the government has promised better security — including passing a counter-terrorism law over the summer criticized by human rights activists as draconian — yet the attacks have continued.

Their goal is to "seed chaos and destabilize the country, and in doing so, make a fledgling democracy fail," Prime Minister Habib Essid said after the attack Tuesday, when a street vendor-turned-suicide bomber hopped on a bus carrying members of the elite presidential guard, killing 12 of them.

In March, two gunmen trained in a camp in neighboring lawless Libya unleashed carnage in the country's leading museum, the Bardo, killing 22, mostly foreign tourists.

Three months later, the Mediterranean beach resort of Sousse was the stage of a bloody operation by a student, also trained in Libya, who killed 38 tourists, mostly British.

Tunisia has already sought Western help for better police and border technology, built a sand wall on the Libyan frontier and shut down social media accounts of people suspected of terrorism links.

But the problem is deep and broad.

More than 3,000 Tunisians are believed to be fighting along with other Islamic extremists in Syria, Iraq and Libya, and several hundred are believed to have returned to Tunisia and authorities have had trouble tracking them.

"While Tunisia has stepped up its policing, which is relatively easy to do, its intelligence capabilities, which are significantly harder to develop, are lagging," Geoff Porter of North Africa Risk Consulting said in a research note.

The overthrown regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was known for its ruthlessly efficient network of informers, but they targeted mainly political dissidents and not the hardened jihadis in the poor neighborhoods.

Police, who are regarded with a great deal of suspicion by many sectors of society because of their brutal reputation, have struggled to build up networks of informers among the urban poor that feed the ranks of the jihadis.

The government announced a new string of measures after the latest attack to combat the extremists, putting the country back under a state of emergency with an overnight curfew around the capital.

"It's total war against terrorism," the president's office said in a statement. The border with Libya has been closed and security tightened at sea ports and airports.

The government is now revising next year's budget — already tight because of economic troubles — to spend more on security and defense. It plans to create 6,000 more jobs linked to the army and police.

They're also trying to speed up court proceedings — some 1,200 terrorism-related cases have been dragging through the courts for years.

Issandr El Amrani, the North Africa director for the International Crisis Group, said efforts at beefing up intelligence gathering are just starting out and without a coherent strategy for reform it will be easy for police to fall into the kind of bad old habits that just feed the problem.

"The government as a whole — not just security forces — need to address socio-economic woes," he said. "Otherwise the security forces end up having to bear the brunt alone, and Tunisians from marginalized areas — especially the urban poor and those in interior provinces — end up increasingly hostile to a state they only interact with when police are sent in."

Samir Taieb, head of the opposition Al Massar party is all for a muscular government response, including calling up reservists, but he too cautioned not to forget the social and economic dimensions of the crisis, including a 25 percent unemployment rate among young people.

"We should also pursue the path of dialogue and consensus that won us the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize," he said. Four Tunisian groups in the National Dialogue Quartet won this year's prize for their efforts in 2013 to resolve a constitutional crisis and rescue the country's efforts to build a democracy.

Residents of the capital don't appear to be ceding to fear despite this week's attack and crowds have been lining up to see movies as part of the Carthage Cinema Festival currently under way.

The night of Tuesday's attack, organizers decided to go ahead with the show.

"If the terrorists think they'll scare us, they've got the wrong address," said 30-year-old public servant and festival-goer Ahmed Sassi. "We are attached to life, we love culture and we will continue to go out."

---

Angela Charlton in Paris and Paul Schemm in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, contributed to this report.
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151128/as--philippines-fighter_jets-ce7eefb450.html

Philippines gets 1st fighter jets in a decade amid sea feud

Nov 28, 3:59 AM (ET)
By BULLIT MARQUEZ

(AP) Newly-acquired FA-50PH fighter jets, left and right, escorted by Philippine Air...
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CLARK AIR BASE, Philippines (AP) — The Philippines on Saturday took delivery of two Korean-made fighter jets — the country's first supersonic combat aircraft in a decade — as it strengthens its underfunded military amid an escalating territorial feud with China.

The FA-50 jets touched down at Clark Freeport, a former U.S. Air Force base north of Manila, as Philippine defense officials applauded and fire trucks sprayed water as a traditional welcome salute for the still-unarmed aircraft.

The Philippines bought 12 FA-50s, which are primarily trainer jets that the military converted to also serve as multi-role combat aircraft, from Korea Aerospace Industries at a cost of 18.9 billion pesos ($402 million). The other jets will be delivered in batches through 2017.

Weapons for the FA-50s, including bombs and rockets, will be purchased later.

(AP) One of two newly-acquired FA-50PH fighter jets is given a water cannon salute while...
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"We're glad we're finally back to the supersonic age," Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said.

The Philippine military decommissioned its last fleet of supersonic combat aircraft, the F-5, in 2005. A military modernization program that included plans for the purchase of at least a squadron of fighter jets and naval frigates didn't happen for several years largely because of a lack of funds.

Over the years, the military has deteriorated to become one of Asia's weakest.

Under current President Benigno Aquino III, however, territorial spats with China over islands in the South China Sea have escalated and resulted in the Chinese seizure of a disputed shoal in 2012, prompting the military to scramble to acquire new navy ships and air force planes with the help of the United States, the Philippines' longtime defense treaty ally.

Last week, Aquino authorized Gazmin to enter into major contracts to acquire 44 billion pesos ($936 million) worth of military hardware, including two frigates, anti-submarine helicopters and amphibious assault vehicles for the navy, and long-range patrol aircraft, munitions for the FA-50s and surveillance radar for the air force, Defense Undersecretary Fernando Manalo said.

(AP) Two newly-acquired FA-50PH fighter jets taxi on the runway upon landing Saturday,...
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The new ships, aircraft and military equipment were expected to be purchased from this year up to 2018, according to Manalo.

Lt. Col. Rolando Condrad Pena III, one of three Filipino air force pilots who received training in Korea to fly the FA-50s, said that the jets could carry enough munitions payload and could be used in air-to-air and air-to-ground combat.

"Now that we have a supersonic aircraft our reaction time will be faster," Pena told reporters.

Still, the Philippines has ruled out a military solution to the territorial conflicts with its limited defense capabilities. In January 2013, the Philippines brought its disputes with China to international arbitration, but Beijing refused to participate and pressed for one-on-one negotiations.

An international tribunal in The Hague, however, dismissed China's legal arguments last month and ruled that it has authority to hear the Philippines' case. It said it expects to hand down a decision next year on several issues raised by the Philippines, including the validity of China's sweeping territorial claims under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

---

Associated Press writer Jim Gomez in Manila contributed to this report.
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151127/lt--mexico-violence-d5d8e0a4b1.html

11 killed in Mexico, including 2 police in town on US border

Nov 27, 4:36 PM (ET)

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexican authorities said attackers killed four members of a civilian police patrol in the turbulent southern state of Guerrero, while two city police officers and five gunmen died in a series of gunbattles in the northern border town of Rio Bravo.

The prosecutors' office in Guerrero said late Thursday that seven members of a community police force were attacked as they patrolled the streets of the city of Tixtla, which is home to the teachers college that had 43 of its students vanish more than a year ago after being detained by municipal police in a nearby city. Four members of the vigilante-style community force died in the attack.

The community police are civilians allowed to carry weapons and defend their towns in many parts of rural Mexico where official police forces are mistrusted. They have often clashed with organized crime gangs. The attackers have not been identified, but residents have said two drug gangs appear to be fighting over turf in the area.

On Friday, officials in the northern border state of Tamaulipas said two police officers and five suspected gunmen died in at least three gunbattles in Rio Bravo, which on the Texas border near McAllen.

Two confrontations occurred late Thursday when gunmen attacked police patrols in the town, killing two officers and wounding a female officer. Her injuries are not life-threatening. A bystander was also hit by gunfire and was listed in stable condition.

The officers returned fire and killed two suspects while other attackers fled, authorities said.

Gunmen later opened fire on state police in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, and three suspected attackers were killed, officials said.

The area has been the scene of turf battles between rival factions of the Gulf Cartel.
 

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/dealing-with-pakistans-nuclear-breakout/

Dealing with Pakistan’s Nuclear Breakout

What is the best way to bring Pakistan into the non-proliferation fold?

By Julian Schofield
November 27, 2015

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The 2003 conquest of Iraq, disintegration of Syria, and recent nuclear deal with Iran has seemingly pushed the nuclear non-proliferation frontier to Pakistan. There is concern that at current rates of production, within ten years Pakistan will have the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, from a count of approximately 70 boosted-fission warheads in 2008, to more than 500, and with sufficient range to reach Israel and Turkey. There is a temptation, as part of the next step to roll back nuclear proliferation, for the West to isolate Pakistan as it did with Iraq, Iran and North Korea in the 1990s.

Pakistan’s current weapons grade fissile material production is four times India’s, and Pakistan is more determined to concentrate these resources into warhead production. It possesses four operational production reactors at Khushab collectively able to manufacture 25 to 50 kg of plutonium every twelve months, which, combined with Pakistan’s ongoing highly enriched uranium (HEU) production with 20,000 centrifuges at Kahuta, gives it the capacity to produce between 14 to 27 warheads annually. Refinements at the Khushab site may double this total. India by contrast can manufacture between two and five nuclear weapons in the same period. This pace has continued unabated since 1998, and has received further stimulus from recent Indian-U.S. nuclear material agreements.

Turning international attention and pressure on Pakistan to compel it join the non-proliferation regime will not succeed. The 1968 Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT) is often advertised as a collective security framework to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. In fact, it was a bargain between two great powers, the U.S. and the USSR, to jointly promise not to permit the proliferation of nuclear weapons to their allies. In particular, Moscow was concerned that West Germany would acquire an independent nuclear arsenal. Moscow and Washington conceded their failures to reign-in China, France or Israel, and the USSR accepted the NATO framework for the sharing of U.S. nuclear weapons, including with West Germany. Huge arsenals maintained general deterrence against new nuclear weapons programs, as well as extended deterrence to insecure allies, and the deal proved a great success in arresting proliferation. With the end of the Cold War, the U.S. extended the principles of the NPT in order to neutralize former Soviet client-states.

The outlines of a second grand bargain took place between China and the U.S. in the 1990s, with China imposing firm export controls on dual-use technology to the developing world. China agreed to cut-off Iran, but was determined to maintain its relationship with Pakistan, on which it depends to draw-off Indian security efforts. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program has, since 1974, received important assistance from China, including warhead designs, HEU, scientific testing and training, and missiles technology and production capacity. Although China has reduced its support to Pakistan, primarily because the latter has attained an adequate level of strategic self-sufficiency to deter India, this could be reversed promptly if India were to obtain some technological breakout capacity.

Any new great power bargain to contain Pakistan will be imperiled by the interests of three pivotal states. China will not reign in Pakistan unless India emulates Pakistani disarmament. India will not submit to any arrangement that puts it into a separate class from the great powers. Saudi Arabia will continue to provide financial, energy and diplomatic support to Pakistan to offset Israel or a future Iran, Egypt, or Turkey. Isolating Pakistan will push it closer under a Chinese strategic nuclear umbrella. U.S. threats to facilitate the countervailing nuclear armament of Japan, Australia or South Korea are incredible because they would cause as much difficulty for the U.S. as China. Even if Pakistan never joined a formal alliance with China, and did not further contribute to nuclear proliferation, its regionally destabilizing arsenal would continue along its current maximal growth trajectory. However, to put the arsenal into correct perspective, Pakistan’s will consist primarily of fission or boosted-fission weapons (15 to 50 kiloton yields), but will likely not include mass-produced fusion warheads (megaton range) for at least two decades. Its delivery systems consist of medium range aircraft (F-16s, Mirages, and JF-17s) and the mobile Haft and solid fuelled Shaheen series of missiles, which are likely never to be able to target Europe. Despite the significant destruction it could inflict on India’s cities, the arsenal would remain regional and strategically insignificant as long as they weren’t based outside of Pakistan.

So how should the international community approach the problem of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal? Pakistan is quite vulnerable to economic sanctions, because of an array of ad hoc export agreements providing Pakistani goods access to EU and U.S. markets. But the high priority placed on national security in Islamabad means that Pakistan would not likely be dissuaded by sanctions, nor has it historically. Furthermore, these trading arrangements sustain an emerging commercial class, which in turn is believed to create the conditions for a more stable democracy.

Another approach is to institutionalize Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally. The outlines of a constructive informal alliance should consist of military to military interaction in the form of ongoing strategic dialogues, perhaps through a permanent NATO agency, joint training, but most importantly operational officer exchanges and student positions at staff colleges. Institutionalizing this constructive engagement of Pakistan’s military would buffet it against the usual political friction typical of Pakistani-Western relations. Nor are weapons sales necessary to sustain this relationship. However, this arrangement would require political will, as interest in engaging with Pakistan will inevitably decline with the reduced involvement of NATO in Afghanistan.

On the one hand, it seems absurd to establish such close relations with a nuclear-armed state so allegedly unstable, plagued with militant Islamists, and which has also been accused repeatedly of feeding insurgency in Afghanistan and Indian-occupied Kashmir. However, military-to-military contacts are a particularly effective avenue of influence of Western values to the elites of the security state within Pakistan. This could influence everything from democratization to more humanitarian approaches to counter-insurgency. Other less amenable avenues of influence, such as through the mass population, would compete unfavourably with indigenous nationalism and Gulf Arab-funded Islamist movements. The principal national political parties, the PPP and PML-NS, are primarily dynastically run ethnic groupings, and are preferential towards China and Saudi Arabia, respectively. The tribal regions are under active suppression, and the poorest regions of Pakistan, while open to foreign aid efforts, are politically marginalized. The military elite are the most effective and representative national organization in Pakistan, technocratic, and committed to socio-economic development.

The Western disinclination to engage with Pakistan has a lot to do with its caricature as an illiberal and religiously extremist state and society. Pakistan certainly has a great many socio-economic developmental challenges, including entrenched rural feudalism, mistreatment of minorities, and a heavy-handed approach to governance in the outer provinces. But Pakistan also has many factors in its favor. Its Sufi-based Barelvi variant of Hanafi Islam remains dominant and tolerant, and is the main reason Pakistani religious parties have far less influence in politics than they do in Egypt, Turkey or Indonesia. Democratic political culture in Pakistan is genuine and has widespread support, even within the military. Pakistan has a competent national security bureaucracy, which has preserved stability at the center despite repeated existential challenges. A relationship at this level would draw Pakistan away from Chinese, Saudi and Islamist influence, would facilitate further attempts at dialogue to repair the tragedy that is Indo-Pakistani relations, and reduce the security anxiety that is propelling Pakistan’s nuclear build-up.

Dr. Julian Schofield is a professor of political science at Concordia University (Montreal). He has been conducting research in and on Pakistan for twenty years. His publications include Militarization and War (Palgrave, 2007), Pakistan: Geopolitics (with Usama Butt, Pluto, 2012), and Strategic Nuclear Sharing (Palgrave, 2013).
 

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http://www.timesofisrael.com/buildi...n-making-contact-lenses-claims-iran-official/

Building a bomb now easier for us than putting in a contact lens, claims Iran official

Quds Force adviser says regime ‘closer than ever’ to nuclear device, and could easily complete project if religious ban were lifted

By Times of Israel staff November 26, 2015, 6:31 pm
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Iran's nuclear program
Qassem Suleimani
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Iran is “closer than ever” to the bomb, and completing it would be “easier than putting in a contact lens,” a senior Iranian official was quoted saying on Thursday.

The claim by Hassan Karimpour, an adviser to Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, was reported Thursday in Iranian media, and quoted on the BBC’s Persian language website and Israel’s Hebrew-language Channel 2 TV.

Finishing a nuclear bomb would be “easy to do, as soon as the spiritual ban on nuclear weapons were lifted,” Channel 2 quoted Karimpour as saying.

The Iranian regime has repeatedly vowed that it is not seeking a nuclear weapon, and spiritual leader Ali Khamenei has issued fatwas forbidding nuclear weapons.

According to Fars news, Karimpour also said Iran has 14 missile depots, buried between 30 and 500 meters underground, equipped with automatic launchers, and that any country that dared to attack Iran would be riddled with large numbers of missiles fired from these depots.

A worker rides a bicycle in front of the reactor building of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, just outside the southern city of Bushehr, Iran, on October 26, 2010. (AP/Mehr News Agency, Majid Asgaripour, File)

Israel and others in the West believe Iran has been pursuing a rogue nuclear weapons program, however, and the US-led P5+1 world powers signed a deal with Iran in July intended to curb the program, in exchange for sanctions relief. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the deal as a “historic mistake” that would pave Iran’s path to the bomb, and challenged US President Barack Obama’s handling of the issue in a speech to Congress in March.

In this Feb. 2007 file photo, an Iranian technician walks through the Uranium Conversion Facility just outside the city of Isfahan, south of the capital Tehran, Iran. (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)

A former Iranian president reportedly admitted last month that the country’s nuclear program was started with the intent of building a nuclear weapon. The reported comments by Hashemi Rafsanjani to the state-run IRNA news agency marked the first time a top Iranian official — current or former — had said the country sought a nuclear weapon.

Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Yukiya Amano speaks during an interview with the Associated Press in Vienna, Austria, Tuesday, May 12, 2015. (AP Photo/Ronald Zak)

Earlier on Thursday, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said he could not guarantee that everything Iran is doing is peaceful, even as Tehran takes steps to reduce its nuclear activities under the July deal. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano spoke Thursday to the IAEA’s 35-nation board.

Amano said he is “not in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran,” and thus cannot conclude that “all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.”
 

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Islam and the Bomb

by Michael Krepon | November 25, 2015 | 6 Comments

This post on Islamic teachings from the Quran is written by Faiqa Mahmood, a Non-Resident Fellow at the Stimson Center. It’s another in a series on how traditional principles of the world’s major religions relate to the advent, possession and use of nuclear weapons. – MK

With a distinct and slim minority of Muslims engaged in acts of violence against noncombatants, it is important to have conversations among Muslims and between Muslims and practitioners of other religions on the use of force, and whether and when it may be justified. The most consequential use of force relates to the use of nuclear weapons.

The concept of deterrence is implied in the Quran, the highest authority in Islamic jurisprudence, in this verse:


“Prepare against them whatever forces you [believers] can muster, including warhorses, to frighten the enemies of God and of yours.” (8:60)

A majority of Islamic jurists hold that although the acquisition of nuclear weapons for deterrence is permissible, their first use can never be justified. However, it remains uncertain whether or not the use of nuclear weapons in retaliation is allowed.

This lack of clarity stems from an inherent tension is the classical Islamic principles between the protection of non-combatants and the retaliatory use of force. This tension is compounded by a lack of debate amongst Muslim scholars and leaders on the justifiable use of force, or jihad. Classical Islamic principles distinguish between the defensive use of force and the offensive use of force. The defensive use of force is contained in this Quranic commandment:


“Fight in God’s cause against those who fight you, but do not overstep the limits: God does not love those who overstep the limits.” (2:190)

The Arabic command “do not overstep the limits” (la ta’tadu) is so general that a majority of commentators agree that it includes a prohibition on starting hostilities, fighting non-combatants, and a disproportionate response to aggression. The phrase “those who fight you” underscores that classic Islamic principles do not permit Muslims to be the aggressors.

There has been debate on whether the offensive use of force is allowed in Islam. Twentieth-century thinkers such as Abul Ala Mawdudi and Syed Qutub argued that all Muslims are obligated to launch offensive jihad, in order to spread Islam. However, a majority of scholars hold that the offensive theory of jihad has no basis in the primary sources of Islamic law. Using examples from the life of Prophet Muhammad, they show that Muslims can only instigate an attack if they first entered into an agreement with an adversary, and that adversary proved to be treacherous. Thus, Muslims are allowed the anticipatory use of force against an enemy only under circumscribed conditions.

Even when force is used justifiably, classic Islamic principles call for Muslims to adhere to limitations on the use of force, i.e., force is only allowed to be used to the extent necessary to achieve military objectives. Muslims must make a distinction between the enemies, fighting only the combatants, and the force used must be proportionate to the harm suffered. Finally, all fighters and prisoners must be dealt with humanely. Prophet Muhammad said:


“Fairness is prescribed by God in every matter, so if you kill, kill in a fair way.” (Sahih Muslim, Volume 2, Page 72)

The Quran uses clear language to prohibit the killing of an innocent:


“If anyone kills a person unless ̶ in retribution for murder or spreading corruption in the land ̶ it is as if he kills all mankind, while if any saves a life, it is as if he saves the life of all mankind.” (5:32)

The question of killing a Muslim, or believer, is dealt with unequivocally in the Quran:


“If anyone kills a believer deliberately, the punishment for him is Hell, and there he will remain: God is angry with him, and rejects him, and has prepared a tremendous torment for him.” (4:93)

On numerous occasions, Prophet Muhammad is reported as saying:


“Do not kill a decrepit old man, or a young infant, or a child, or a woman.” (Sunan Abu Dawud, Book 14, Number 2608)

Abu Bakr, the first Caliph and successor to Prophet Muhammad, famously referenced this principle in a speech to the Muslim army before the invasion of what is now Syria in 632:


“Do not commit treachery or deviate from the right path. You must not mutilate dead bodies. Neither kill a child, nor a woman, nor an aged man. Bring no harm to the trees, nor burn them with fire… Slay not any of the enemy’s flock, save for food. You are likely to pass by people who have devoted their lives to monastic services, leave them alone.”

The above teachings clearly establish the inviolability of innocent life, and the environment. However, Islam also clearly sanctions the deterrence of the enemy, and retaliation, as noted above:


“Prepare against them whatever forces you [believers] can muster, including warhorses, to frighten the enemies of God and of yours.” (8:60)

This verse is invariably quoted by Muslim scholars who favor the acquisition of nuclear weapons, arguing that this requires Muslim states to acquire any means necessary to defend themselves.

Unfortunately, the Muslim debate on deterrence has yet to develop beyond this superficial level. Crucial questions remain unanswered: under Islamic teachings, how much of a nuclear arsenal is required if its cost detracts from the well-being of Muslims? What nuclear targeting strategy – whether counterforce or countervalue – is consistent with Islamic principles? If escalation cannot be controlled, is any targeting strategy that threatens entire populations consistent with Islamic principles?

The concept of retaliation is explicit in Islam, but its ramifications in the nuclear context are ambiguous. The Quran says:


“So if anyone commits aggression against you, attack him as he attacked you, but be mindful of God…” (2:194)

However, retaliation must be no more than the original harm suffered:


“If you [believers] have to respond to an attack, make your response proportionate, but it is best to stand fast.” (16:126)

“God will help those who retaliate against an aggressive act merely with its like…” (22:60)

From these principles, Islamic jurists have inferred that, in general, Muslims must not use any non-discriminatory methods in war. But these means become permissible, or even necessary, in defense if the enemy initiated their use. Al-Ghazali, the famous 12th-century theologian, believed that these moral prohibitions could only be suspended if the utter destruction of the Muslim community was at risk. Other jurists, however, held that Muslims could retaliate with non-discriminatory means as a matter of necessity, in order to prevent a Muslim defeat.

To conclude, the acquisition of nuclear weapons for deterrence may be allowed in Islam, but first use is never permitted. While a retaliatory nuclear strike may be permissible, it is unclear how the possibility of massive damage can be reconciled with the prohibition against harming women, children, the elderly, animals, and the environment. Classic Islamic principles therefore raise significant dilemmas for nuclear deterrence doctrine. If nuclear deterrence is sanctioned by Islam, targeting strategies would be significantly curtailed.

Given the current dynamics in Muslim countries, it is time for mainstream Muslim thinkers to begin a conversation on the justifiable use of force, with particular reference to attacks on noncombatants, ranging from the Paris attacks to the use of nuclear weapons.

Read the previous post in this series.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Tagged With: Abu Bakr, al Ghazali, counter value, counterforce, Islam, Mawdudi, nuclear deterrence, Prophet Muhammad, Quran, Syed Qutub


Comments


Michael Krepon (History)

November 26, 2015 at 7:46 am


comment from Dave:

A relevant exposition on this topic is the well known fatwa by Saudi Sheikh Nasir al-Fahd on the permissibility of WMD including nuclear and the covering of this fatwa by Sheikh Zawahiri in his book Exoneration.

Reply


SQ (History)

November 26, 2015 at 9:50 am


Michael, those are al-Qaida figures.






SQ (History)

November 26, 2015 at 10:52 am


Most striking about this analysis is Ms. Mahmood’s direct resort to Quran and Hadith; compare it to Hannah Haegeland’s essay on Catholic perspectives, which explores a relatively rich literature on the subject of nuclear deterrence, not pausing to quote the Bible even once. Partly the difference may be structural, since the Catholic Church has a formal hierarchy that asserts the exclusive authority to interpret scripture, but it also probably has something to do with how long different societies have been forced with live with the Bomb. The first of Ms. Haegeland’s sources is from 1983, almost four full decades into the nuclear age. That’s about when Pakistan was first amassing fissile material!

And there’s the rub. The only nuclear-armed state with a Muslim majority is Pakistan, the most openly pro-nuclear country in the world, dominated by its military, swarming with armed Muslim organizations, and frequently at odds with non-Muslim enemies, allies, and bystanders. Should this be the setting for the development of Muslim religious thought on nuclear weapons? Perhaps it would be better for the time being if it remained underdeveloped, or as Ms. Mahmood puts it, superficial.

In tackling the nuclear question in the early 1980s, the Catholic Church had something else going for it; an awareness that the lives of Catholics and Christians on both sides of the Cold War confrontation were at stake. The Catholic materials, starting with the American bishops’ letter, are suffused with awareness of common humanity across the geopolitical chasm. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that this process emerged under a Polish pope, not to mention during the same time as the Euromissiles controversy and the nuclear freeze movement in the United States. Pakistan today seems very far from that atmosphere, perhaps diametrically opposite.

In principle, at least, all Muslims are affected by the Bomb, and Muslims live everywhere around the world. But Pakistan’s special intensity on the question creates a difficulty.

There is also Iran. Shiism is the most Catholic-like branch of Islam, with a similar inclination to hierarchy and interpretive authority; in the abstract, Iran therefore might be a more favorable locus for the development of religious thought on nuclear weapons than Pakistan. But the reality is less promising. We are mired in the fog of Ayatollah Khamenei’s famous fatwa, which apparently has no official date, text, or rationale. Is the possession of nuclear weapons forbidden, or just the use? If it’s the use, how about in retaliation? All is unclear, and the fatwa, like all fatwas not otherwise renewed, dies with its originator. In practice, the fatwa is a bit like the JCPOA; it’s a positive development, but allows Ayat. Khamenei to hand off the issue to his successor without a decisive, permanent resolution.

Ms. Mahmood makes no reference to states and their interests, and perhaps that is her wise way of suggesting that disinterested religious authorities ought to interpret the question apart from geopolitical matters, if that’s possible. And indeed, silence could simply leave the genocidal ideologues of al-Qaida and ISIS to fill the void. But who will take up that challenge?

Reply



yousaf (History)

November 26, 2015 at 1:44 pm


In my view, it may be disingenuous and dangerous to resort to teachings (often contradictory, subjectively interpreted and not from the primary sources) from hundreds of years ago to inform the use of 20th and 21st century technology.

What do the Books of Chilam Balam have to say about cyber-deterrence? satellite warfare?

Let’s hope that the religious debate about these topics remains at a superficial level and that it is soon extinguished altogether.

Reply



JP Zanders (History)

November 27, 2015 at 3:25 am


I have written on religious origins of the prohibition on chemical and biological weapons. Poison use has a far longer history in civilisation than the existence of today’s monotheistic religions. In my research I came across several of the passages and sources identified by Ms Mahmood.

See:
* International Norms Against Chemical And Biological Warfare: An Ambiguous Legacy, Journal of Conflict & Security Law, Vol. 8 No. 2 (2003). http://www.the-trench.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/200312-JCSL-International-norms.pdf; and
* Iran’s Disarmament and Arms Control Policies for Biological and Chemical Weapons, and Biological Capabilities, Report FOI-R–0904–SE (Swedish Defence Research Agency: Umeå, December 2003) http://www.the-trench.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/200312-FOI-CBW-study.pdf

While religions have undeniably influenced the formulation of codes of conduct on the battlefield, it should equally be recognised that they only applied to members of one’s own religious community and not to wars between members of different religions, as empiral evidence of poison use by Christians and Muslims against each other in several medieval and later wars proves.

Perhaps the deeper point for consideration is that in monotheistic religions, followers can accept only a single source of authority. Anybody challenging that authority is a heretic, witness the bloodiness of the 100 years war in Europe, which ended in favour of the (secular) sovereign state. Legal rules apply only to entities considered equal (the “state” became the equal entity in international law and soldiers were its agents; once no longer its agents, e.g., if wounded or non-combatant, then they could no longer be targeted by war operations).

So, if religion once again becomes a primary organising principle of societies – witness developments in the Middle East, the USA, UK, East European countries – the question of organising inter- and intrasocietal relations will likely become increasingly contentious. Weapons of any type can obtain religious sanction by those wanting to have or use them, irrespective of whether any such sanction ever existed previously in religious doctrine or teachings. Just recall the way Aum Shinrikyo built up its internal justification to provoke armageddon, inter alia by means of chemical and biological weapons. My fear is that the extreme application of such a binary view on the world is the driving logic behind a lot of what we see relating to and in response to ISIL today.

Back to the academic analysis by Ms Mahmood: personally I would also include modern Islamic legal scholars in the analysis of religion and weapon acquisition. Some of them have served on the International Court of Justice in The Hague and contributed, among other things, to the advisory opinion regarding the legitimacy of nuclear weapon use. Also the practice of states (islamic or other) and their participation in international legal regimes ought also to be considered in today’s debates, I feel.

Reply



nab (History)

November 27, 2015 at 5:51 am


Ms Mahmood’s analysis is illuminating more about Islam itself than about nuclear weapons as means of attack or retaliation. She raises a more general problem about religions and their stands over this grave and humanity-threatening issue: nuclear weapons, or even more generally WMD.
It is an age old problem to engage or disengage religion from war, conflict, conquest, retaliation, plunder, revenge, all in a massive scale by armies of political or religious motivation. The Abrahamite religions, have as it is most humanly understandable contradictory and equivocal injunctions about war.
The Old Testament is replete with the wars of the Jewish tribes against its various enemies or occupiers. Christianity has no reference to war but the very general injunction “Give Caesar what is Caesar’s and to God what is God’s”. On the other hand it demands that we should love our enemy. However, if this enemy is also Caesar’s enemy what do we do, kill him? And if his an enemy of Christianity, then what?
Religious texts, at least those which belong to the Abrahamite religions aren’t a very good source for guidance for politics, conflict or war. They never were. What they did was to ameliorate the base and inhuman instincts of warriors, conquerors and plunderers to a more humane behavior towards the week, the non-combatants and the tax-providers.
But there are two other points which must be of interests to all interested in this modern phenomenon of Islam, terrorism and war. The Quran is replete with verses about war. Why is this the case? Why the Quran and the Hadiths present so many cases of war?
The second point: Ms Mahmood refers to the worlds of the first Caliph Abu Bakr. The caliph was giving instructions to the expeditionary force which moved against the Christian Byzantium. Why did the Moslems, of the newly conquered Mecca, started the attack against their Christian neighbors? In 636 AD, when Caliph Omar took the place of the assassinated Abu Bakr, the Moslem army in the battle of Ieremiax or in Arabic the battle of Yarmouk River, a tributary of Jordan, defeated the Byzantine Imperial army and thus the conquest of the Middle East and North Africa started.
Islam is more or less a tradition of war and conquest. There is no doubt that the Arabs were the initiators of a new Civilization and a new world history. There is no doubt that Islam became a source of inspiration and spiritual guidance to millions and to many mystics, philosophers, poets, scientists. The core of Islam, though, was an ideology of expansive mission. The recent decline of Muslim states (three centuries) changed this fervor but it is obvious that today Islam is reasserting itself on the world stage. The Bible and the Quran aren’t a good source of inquiry about nuclear weapons. Jews, Christians and Moslems, do possess nuclear arms. The motivation to use them for offensive or defensive purposes may rest upon deep religious convictions of some of world leaders but unfortunately we cannot bet on this in any rational way.
 

Lilbitsnana

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Conflict News ‏@Conflicts 35m35 minutes ago

North Korea tested submarine-launched missile, but launch failed - report http://reut.rs/1MKjr85 - @Reuters


posted for fair use
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...dType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:14am EST

Related: World, North Korea, Aerospace & Defense
North Korea tested submarine-launched missile, but launch failed: report
SEOUL

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks at the KPA's (Korean People's Army) 7th military education convention, which was held on November 3 and 4, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang November 5, 2015.
Reuters/KCNA

North Korea appeared to conduct a submarine-launched ballistic missile test on Saturday but it ended in failure with no indication that the missile successfully ejected from the vessel and took off, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported.

The test, if confirmed, follows a test-launch in May of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), which Pyongyang boasted as a success but has not been independently verified.

"There is no identification of a missile taking flight and only fragments of a safety cover was observed so it's highly likely that the launch was a misfire," a South Korean government source was quoted as saying by Yonhap.

South Korea's Defence Ministry declined to confirm the report citing its policy of not commenting on intelligence matters.

The North's May test launch of an SLBM fueled alarm in South Korea and the United States about the possibility of advances in the military capabilities of a state that is pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

But a high-ranking U.S. military official and private rocket experts questioned the authenticity of photographs released by the North of the May launch saying they were likely modified.

The missile was likely launched from a specially designed submerged barge and not from a submarine and that the North is years away from developing such technology, some experts have said.

But South Korea said it believed the rocket was fired from a submarine and flew about 150 meters out of the water.

North Korea has defied U.N. sanctions for its missile and nuclear tests and is believed to be developing a nuclear device small enough to be mounted on a ballistic missile but it is believed to be some years away from perfecting the technology.

North Korea is technically still at war with the South after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. About 28,500 U.S. troops are based in South Korea in combined defense with the South against the North.

(Reporting by Jack Kim and Ju-min Park; Editing by Dominic Evans)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Another Day At The Office: SF In Africa
Started by Dozdoatsý, Yesterday 07:23 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?479689-Another-Day-At-The-Office-SF-In-Africa


Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-facts-about-terrorism?intcid=mod-yml

November 24, 2015

The Facts About Terrorism

By John Cassidy

On Monday, I posted a long piece about how we perceive acts of terrorism in the age of social media. Today, prompted by the publication of a new report by the London-based Institute for Economics and Peace (and by a post on the report by Richard Florida), I’d like to focus on the facts about global terrorism.

If you have a sense that the problem is growing, you’re right. Last year, the number of people killed by terrorist attacks rose by about eighty per cent, reaching an all-time high of close to thirty-three thousand. Since 2000, the annual death toll from terrorism has increased ninefold. Not only that, but terrorist attacks are becoming more focussed on civilians and less focussed on military, political, and religious targets. Thanks largely to the deadly activities of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham and of Boko Haram, the Islamist extremist group based in northeastern Nigeria, the number of civilians killed in terrorist attacks jumped a hundred and seventy-two per cent in 2014, to more than fifteen thousand.

Relative to other causes of premature death, terrorism is still a minor phenomenon. For every person killed in a terrorist attack, roughly forty people die in traffic accidents and roughly eighty die of alcoholism. Still, violent attacks on civilians have great salience, psychologically, and, according to the I.E.P. report, they are getting more common, especially in non-Western parts of the world. In 2014, five countries—Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Syria—accounted for almost eighty per cent of the deaths caused by terrorists. Twelve years after the U.S. invasion, Iraq remains at the top of list, with close to ten thousand lives lost. Nigeria was the second most affected country, with more than seven thousand five hundred deaths.

Globally, the two leading purveyors of death and destruction are ISIS and Boko Haram. Last year, in fact, Boko Haram overtook ISIS to “become the most deadly terrorist group in the world,” the report says. The authors attribute six thousand six hundred and forty-four deaths to Boko Haram last year, and six thousand and seventy-three deaths to ISIS. The vast majority of these fatalities resulted from attacks carried out in Nigeria and Iraq. In Nigeria, Boko Haram killed an estimated six thousand one hundred and eighteen people; in Iraq, ISIS killed five thousand four hundred and thirty-six people.

The report doesn’t dwell on this, but few of these deaths attracted much attention from the Western news media. Sadly, that’s hardly surprising. In Iraq, kidnappings and suicide bombings are daily occurrences. In Nigeria, the deadliest massacres are often carried out with firearms, but suicide bombings are increasingly common. Just this past weekend, according to media reports, a girl detonated explosives at a military checkpoint in the city of Maiduguri, killing herself and seven others.

The I.E.P. report doesn’t include the recent attacks in Paris, or the ones carried out there in January, at the offices of Charlie Hebdo and at a kosher supermarket; the authors drew on data collected by the Global Terrorism Database, an open-source project maintained by researchers at the University of Maryland. Since the database is updated annually, it doesn’t yet account for the attacks in France. But the longer-term trends that the report describes regarding Western countries are still worth looking at.

In 2014, terrorist attacks caused just thirty-seven deaths in Western countries, 0.11 per cent of the global tally. Relative to this year, last year was a peaceful one, but it wasn’t a complete outlier. During the fifteen years from 2000 to 2014, there were three thousand six hundred and fifty-nine terrorism-related deaths in Western countries, and they accounted for 2.6 per cent of the over-all total around the world. The vast majority of these deaths resulted from four incidents: the 9/11 attacks in the United States, the 2004 train bombings in Madrid, the transit bombings in London in 2005, and the 2011 gun massacre and bombing in Norway. As I noted in my previous post, spectacular attacks on Western targets are a reality that we have to deal with. Mercifully, however, they are still pretty rare.

The report also has a section on the United States. In 2014, it says, nineteen incidents classed as terrorist attacks took place here, resulting in eighteen deaths. Most of these attacks were carried out by individuals. “Four out of the 19 attacks in the US had a jihadist element,” the report says. Three of the four were shootings believed to have been carried out by Ali Muhammad Brown, a Seattle man who claimed that he was responding to U.S. foreign policy. The other incident came when Zale Thompson, a Muslim convert, attacked some police officers in Queens with a hatchet. (The police shot Thompson dead; there were no other fatalities.)

In 2014, at least, violent attacks associated with Islamist extremism in the U.S. were outnumbered by attacks involving right-wing individuals and groups. The report notes that eight attacks last year were undertaken by “individuals or people with an affiliation to Sovereign Citizens, which is a network of individuals that have antigovernment views.” The authors identified a similar pattern throughout the West. “Lone wolf attackers are the main perpetrators of terrorist activity in the West, causing 70% of all deaths over the past 10 years,” the report notes. “Islamic fundamentalism was not the main driver of terrorism in Western countries: 80% of lone wolf deaths were by political extremists, nationalists, racial and religious supremacists.”

What is the message of these figures? Clearly, they don’t imply that there is no threat whatsoever of a large-scale attack in the United States by Islamist extremists. If ISIS and its supporters could find a way to carry out such a strike, doubtless they would do it. The two attacks in Paris are a reminder of the group’s deadly ambitions outside the Levant. Al Qaeda still represents a potential threat, too. But the figures do demonstrate that terrorism isn’t exclusively an Islamist phenomenon, and that most of its victims are located in troubled countries. The figures also suggest that, at the global level, large-scale terrorist attacks are associated with civil wars, failed states, and big flows of displaced people. “Ten of the eleven countries most affected by terrorism also have the highest rates of refugees and internal displacement,” Steve Killelea, the executive chairman of the I.E.P, said in a press release accompanying the report’s release. “This highlights the strong inter-connectedness between the current refugee crisis, terrorism and conflict.”

If we want to reduce the level of terrorism, or even contain it, we will have to deal with both its immediate manifestations and its underlying causes. This certainly involves coming to terms with ISIS, which the report depicts as an organization that is growing in strength and focussed on killing civilians. It points to an attack on the Iraqi city of Badush in June, 2014, when ISIS forces killed six hundred and seventy prisoners, and an attack on Sinjar, also in Iraq, in August, 2014, when five hundred people were killed. (Other sources say that the number of fatalities in Sinjar was much higher.) In the first half of 2015, the report estimates, at least seven thousand more foreign fighters joined ISIS.

But dealing with ISIS is far from the only task. Putting an end to terrorism, or even containing it, means treating the conditions that give rise to it. In the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, that involves ending civil wars, resolving ethnic and religious differences, strengthening state structures in ways that don’t discriminate against minorities, and providing economic opportunities for youthful populations. In many Western countries, it means tracking and marginalizing groups that advocate violence, and finding ways to prevent young people, particularly young Muslim men, from becoming radicalized.

If these challenges seem huge, that’s because they are. But in treating any problem, the first step is to gather all the facts.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151128/ml--iran-oil-1423e8e78c.html

Iran lures foreign investors with new oil contracts

Nov 28, 2:25 PM (ET)
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI

(AP) Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh speaks during the Iran Petroleum Contracts...
Full Image

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran unveiled a new model of oil contracts Saturday aimed at attracting foreign investment once sanctions are lifted under a landmark nuclear deal reached earlier this year, and said U.S. companies would be welcome to participate.

The new Iran Petroleum Contract replaces a previous buyback model, in which contractors paid to develop and operate an oil field before turning it over to Iranian authorities.

Iran has sweetened the terms, hoping to bring in $30 billion in new investment. The new contracts last 15-20 years and allow for the full recovery of costs. The older contracts were shorter term, and investors complained of heavy risks and suffering losses.

Investors who produced more than planned amounts received no compensation for the additional barrels. But under the new model, the more they produce, the more they will earn. Foreign investors will also have an option to extend contracts an additional five years, up to 25 years.

(AP) Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh speaks with media as he leaves the Iran Petroleum...
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Some 50 upstream oil, gas and petrochemical projects are being introduced during a two-day conference in Tehran that began Saturday. Iran will pay foreign oil companies larger fees under the new contracts to provide greater incentives to investors.

Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told the conference that under the new contracts, foreign investors will be required to form a joint company with an Iranian partner to carry out exploration, development and production operations.

"To continue to play the role (as a major oil supplier), we hope to enjoy working with reputable international oil companies under a win-win situation," he told the conference.

Zanganeh welcomed U.S. investment in Iran's energy sector.

"We have no objection to and problem with the participation of American companies. The way for the presence of these companies in Iran's oil industry is open," he said.

(AP) Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, center, Managing Director of National Iranian...
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Mahdi Hosseini, a senior official in charge of the new contracts, told the conference that the new model is an attempt to repair Iran's relations with the industrialized world.

Iran is hoping to attract over $150 billion in foreign investment in five years to rebuild its energy industry.

Iranian hardliners, however, condemned the new contracts as "unconstitutional", saying they will open the way for "infiltration" of the energy sector by Iran's enemies.

"Zanganeh today unveiled contracts that effectively transfers the rights of exploration, extraction, exploitation and sale Iran's oil to foreign companies for 25 years," the conservative news website, rejanews.com, said.

International sanctions on Iran's oil industry were tightened in 2012 over its controversial nuclear program. Western nations have long suspected Iran of secretly pursuing nuclear weapons, charges denied by Tehran, which insists the program is entirely peaceful.

Under the agreement reached in July with the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, Iran will curb its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

Oil Ministry officials said 137 foreign companies attended Saturday's conference, including Repsol, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Technip, Schlumberger, Eni, Enel, Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom, Inpex, Statoil and Daewoo.

Iran, an OPEC member, currently exports 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day and hopes to get back to its pre-sanctions level of 2.2 million, last reached in 2012. Iran's total production now stands at 3.1 million barrels per day. Iran is hoping to boost oil production to 5.7 million barrels a day by 2021.

Zanganeh said last week that Iran will export an additional 500,000 barrels of oil a day after sanctions are lifted — likely in early 2016 — to reclaim its market share despite low prices. Iran plans to begin exporting an additional 500,000 barrels of oil a day six months later in order to double its crude exports.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.....9 to 15 million Copts in Egypt vs 5 million Palestinians in the PA controlled areas of the West Bank and Gaza....


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151128/ml--israel-egypt-0ac20ac327.html

Egypt's Coptic Orthodox leader makes rare Israeli visit

Nov 28, 11:08 AM (ET)

(AP) Clergy and faithful attend the funeral of Coptic Archbishop Abraham of Jerusalem, in...
Full Image

JERUSALEM (AP) — The leader of Egypt's Coptic Orthodox Church is making a rare visit to Israel to attend the funeral of a senior Coptic official in Jerusalem.

Pope Tawadros II broke a ban on pilgrimages to take part in Saturday's funeral at a church at the Holy Sepulcher compound, where the Coptic church has maintained a presence since early Christianity.

The travel ban to Israel was imposed by Tawadros's predecessor, the late Shenouda III, who opposed the normalization of ties between Egypt and Israel.

A 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty ended hostilities between the two neighbors. But anti-Israel sentiments still run high in Egypt and many there have accused Tawadros of betrayal.

Tawadros insisted he was not making an official visit and was merely there to "bid farewell to a very important person."
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151129/ml--islamic_state-632d4e46b1.html

Iraqis find 3 more mass graves in formerly IS-held Sinjar

Nov 29, 3:15 PM (ET)
By SUSANNAH GEORGE and BALINT SZLANKO

(AP) In this Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 file image made from video, skulls remain at...
Full Image

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) — Kurdish officials said Sunday three more mass graves have been found in the northern town of Sinjar, where Kurdish forces backed by heavy U.S.-led airstrikes drove out Islamic State militants earlier this month.

The discovery brings the total number of burial sites in the area to five and the total number of bodies uncovered to between 200 and 300, according to local officials.

While experts say proper excavation and identification of the bodies could take months, Sinjar residents are expressing frustration with the process so far, complaining that their requests from the Kurdish Regional Government for expert help have gone unanswered.

Residents are seeking a faster identification process and assistance in rebuilding the town, much of which is uninhabitable after more than a year of clashes and airstrikes.

The graves found over the weekend are believed to contain 80 to 100 bodies, Qasim Simo, the head of security in Sinjar, said on Sunday. Two were uncovered to the east of the town and one was found within the western edges of Sinjar town itself.

Experts caution however, that properly counting and identifying the dead is a process that could take months and requires a controlled environment.

Local media reports showed some of the burial sites being excavated with heavy construction equipment. At others, Kurdish Peshmerga fighters were seen moving what appeared to be human remains into plastic garbage bags.

"The important thing is that the site is secure," said Kevin Sullivan of the International Commission on Missing Persons, an organization that specializes in war crimes documentation, including the excavation of mass grave sites.

"The site needs to be controlled, for example, by police or under authority of a prosecutor and the bodies need to be exhumed in a systematic way with any identifying artifacts," as wallets and scraps of clothing, he said. Careful record taking is key to being able to initiate war crimes proceedings in the future, he added.

The proximity of many of the sites in Sinjar to active front lines makes circumstances particularly difficult, Sullivan said.

The first suspected mass graves were uncovered over two weeks ago within days of IS forces being pushed out of Sinjar. One, near the town's center was estimated to contain 78 elderly women's bodies, and another, about 15 kilometers (10 miles) outside of Sinjar, contained between 50 and 60 bodies of men, women and children, according to Qasim Samir, the Sinjar director of intelligence.

The Islamic State group captured Sinjar during its rampage across northern Iraq in the summer of 2014 and killed and captured thousands of members of the Yazidi religious minority, including women forced into sexual slavery. The group's rapid expansion in Iraq's north, which included a push toward the city of Erbil, spurred the U.S.-led coalition to launch a campaign of airstrikes against IS in Iraq and later Syria.

On Sunday the Pentagon said coalition aircraft carried out 19 airstrikes in Iraq, three of which struck targets near Sinjar and neighboring towns in Iraq's northwest.

---

Associated Press writer Salar Salim in Irbil, Iraq, contributed to this report.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/what-is-chinas-plan-for-fighting-global-terrorism/

What Is China's Plan for Fighting Global Terrorism?

After the Paris attacks, China pledged to support the international fight against terrorism. But how?

By Shannon Tiezzi
November 27, 2015

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On November 13, gunmen and bombers affiliated with Islamic State (ISIS) attacked Batalcan Theater, cafes, restaurants, and the Stade de France in Paris, killing 129. A week later, armed gunmen took 170 hostages in the Radisson Blu hotel in Mali’s capital, Bamako. In between, ISIS announced that it had executed two hostages, a Norwegian and a Chinese citizen.

Each of these events impacted China directly. One Chinese citizen was shot but survived the Paris attacks; three Chinese were killed in the Mali hotel attack; and hostage Fan Jinghui’s murder was confirmed by China’s Foreign Ministry.

After the events of the past two weeks, China has being facing more pressure – both domestically and internationally – to clarify its contributions to the fight against terrorism. Government officials, from ministry spokespeople to Xi Jinping himself, have been clear cut about China’s revulsion toward terrorism. The question is how China plans to fight it.

One thing is clear: an American-style “war on terror,” with military operations overseas designed to attack and overrun terrorist strongholds, is not in the cards for Beijing. China’s non-interventionist foreign policy wouldn’t necessarily prevent China from sending its military to help fight terrorist groups like ISIS, if (and only if) the host country requests it. But even countries that have openly asked for China’s aid, such as Iraq, have received only promises of personnel training and other support. China simply isn’t interested in placing boots on the ground (or missile in the air, for that matter) to fight international groups like ISIS. And given how little effect military strikes against ISIS have had so far (and the mixed results of the long-standing U.S. operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan), it’s easy to understand how Beijing reached that decision.

But the question remains: if China doesn’t subscribe to a literal war on terror, how does it propose to contribute to the global effort to eradicate terrorism, which Chinese leaders vocally supported over the past two weeks?

When asked to specify how China will work with the international community to fight terrorism, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei was predictably vague, but did offer some hints toward China’s next moves.

First, Hong said, “We call on all relevant parties to coordinate with each other and forge synergy under [the] UN framework.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also spoken of the need to coordinate the global response to terrorism through the United Nations. “The UN’s leading role should be brought into full play to combat terrorism, and a united front in this regard should be formed,” he said on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Turkey, shortly after the Paris attacks.

Touting the UN as the overseer of global counter-terrorism operations meshes well with China’s interests. For one thing, China wants to see a UN-approved definition of terrorism – which would include China’s own issues with Uyghur separatist groups, thus ending once and for all what China sees as the West’s “double standard” toward terrorism. If the UN was recognized as the coordinator of counter-terrorist operations, it would also restrict U.S. military interventions in the name of fighting terror.

In fact, China’s vision for UN-led approach to counter-terrorism doesn’t seem to include military operations at all. As Hong told reporters on Monday, “The international community should implement relevant UN resolutions, and carry out more cooperation in blocking cross-border flow of terrorists, cutting off the secret financing channels for terrorism, and fighting cyber terrorism.” Tellingly, all of these are actions that can be accomplished through government-to-government meetings, sharing of best practices, and the other sort of achievements reached in high-level dialogues. Nowhere did Hong mention coordinating strikes or attacks on terrorists.

That’s keeping with China’s insistence that both the “root cause” and the “symptoms” of terrorism should be addressed together. In Beijing’s view the “war on terror” as exemplified by the United States focuses too much on the symptoms – eradicating militant activity – without addressing the conditions that led to terrorism.

A recent Xinhua piece outlined China’s vision for how to fight terrorism in Africa, and it had nothing to do with military operations against groups like Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and al-Mourabitoun (which claimed responsibility for the November 20 hotel attack in Mali). Instead the piece focused on supporting the affected states to fight their own battles against extremists, by providing “technological aid and intelligence sharing.” Xinhua also argued that, by arming rebels around the world, the West has made terrorist groups stronger, rather than weakening them.

In this light, China sees its economic outreach to Africa (and the Middle East) as steps forward in the fight against terrorism – ways to tackle terrorism at the root by eliminating poverty and providing employment for those who might otherwise be drawn to extremist groups.

Of course, China’s understanding of the “root causes” of terrorism can be called into question based on its actions in Xinjiang province, where heavy-handed security measures may actually be backfiring and increasing terrorist activity. China seems to cling to the belief that economic development can cure all ills, whether in Xinjiang, Mali, or Afghanistan — despite evidence to the contrary in China’s own far-western province. Still, Western military efforts haven’t proved much more successful either.

As China grows in prominence, and as its global interests are increasingly impacted by terrorist networks overseas, expect Beijing to become more vocal about its own strategy for fighting terror — without actually fighting.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Originally posted by MzKitty on the Turkish/Russian Su-24 shoot down thread.....

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...sh-air-space-11-24-2015&p=5860632#post5860632

I haven't seen anything corroborating YET..........

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/587

TURKEY BLOCKADING RUSSIA FROM DARDANELLES; BLACK SEA FLEET COMPLETELY CUT OFF

Post by U.S.Reporter - Nov 29, 2015

Turkey has begun a defacto blockade of Russian naval vessels, preventing transit through the Dardanelles and the Strait of Bosporus, between the Black Sea and Mediterranean.

According to the AIS tracking system for the movement of maritime vessels, only Turkish vessels are moving along the Bosphorus, and in the Dardanelles there is no movement of any shipping at all.

At the same time, both from the Black Sea, and from the Mediterranean Sea, there is a small cluster of ships under the Russian flag, just sitting and waiting. The image below shows the situation with the ships using the GPS transponder onboard each vessel:


In addition, shipping inside the Black Sea from Novorossiisk and Sevastopol in the direction of the Bosphorus, no Russian vessels are moving. This indirectly confirms the a CNN statement that Turkey may have blocked the movement of Russian ships on the Dardanelles and the Strait of Bosporus.

There is a Treaty specifically covering the use of these waterways by nations of the world. That Treaty is the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits.

It is a 1936 agreement that gives Turkey control over the Bosporus Straits and the Dardanelles and regulates the transit of naval warships. The Convention gives Turkey full control over the Straits and guarantees the free passage of civilian vessels in peacetime. It restricts the passage of naval ships not belonging to Black Sea states. The terms of the convention have been the source of controversy over the years, most notably concerning the Soviet Union's military access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Signed on 20 July 1936 at the Montreux Palace in Switzerland, it permitted Turkey to remilitarise the Straits. It went into effect on 9 November 1936 and was registered in League of Nations Treaty Series on 11 December 1936. It is still in force today, with some amendments.

The Convention consists of 29 Articles, four annexes and one protocol. Articles 2–7 consider the passage of merchant ships. Articles 8–22 consider the passage of war vessels. The key principle of freedom of passage and navigation is stated in articles 1 and 2. Article 1 provides that "The High Contracting Parties recognize and affirm the principle of freedom of passage and navigation by sea in the Straits". Article 2 states that "In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete freedom of passage and navigation in the Straits, by day and by night, under any flag with any kind of cargo."

The International Straits Commission was abolished, authorizing the full resumption of Turkish military control over the Straits and the refortification of the Dardanelles. Turkey was authorized to close the Straits to all foreign warships in wartime or when it was threatened by aggression; additionally, it was authorized to refuse transit from merchant ships belonging to countries at war with Turkey.

Turkey has now invoked its power, but has not publicly stated whether they are blocking Russian Naval Vessels because Turkey is "threatened with aggression" or whether Turkey considers itself to be "at war." Last week, Turkey shot down a Russian military jet over Syria and this has caused a major rift between the two nations.

This latest development of blockading Russian naval vessels is a massive and terrifyingly dangerous development. Blockading Russia and preventing its Black Sea fleet from traveling to the rest of the world, or back to its home port, is something that will not sit well with the Russians.

Earlier today, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of 150,000 Russian troops and equipment into Syria, but then ALSO ordered the deployment of 7,000 additional Russian Troops, tanks, rocket launchers and artillery, to the Russian Border of Turkey at Armenia, with orders to be "fully combat ready."

It is important to note two things:

1) Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as is the United States and most of Europe, AND;

2) Turkey took the first shot at Russia when they intentionally shot down a Russian jet last week.



It is important to remember these facts because, as a NATO member, Turkey can invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty which requires all NATO members to come to its defense if Turkey is "attacked." So if Russia decides to fight back against Turkey downing its military jet, the Turks might call NATO and claim they've been "attacked" thereby calling-up NATO forces to go to war against Russia.

It bears remembering, however, that Turkey shot first. Turkey was the nation which "attacked."

Before NATO and the world get dragged into a war between Russia and Turkey, the citizens of the world must be ready to remind our leaders that Turkey Shot First.

Why did the Turks shoot? Because Turkey has been allowing the terrorist group ISIS to sell the oil it has stolen from countries it is conquering. The oil is transported from the wells in countries where ISIS has seized power, is taken by truck to Turkey, and is then sold at cheap prices on the black market.

This black market selling results in over 1 Million dollars per DAY flowing into ISIS to keep it equipped and supplied for its ongoing terrorist activities. Only a fool would think that all this is going on through Turkey, without some Turkish officials having their hands out for money from the illegal oil sales. Put simply, Turkey appears to be in business with ISIS and Russia is harming that by attacking ISIS in Syria.

So Turkey shot down one of the Russian planes that was attacking ISIS. Russia is quite furious; with the Russian President stating the shoot down was "a stab in the back of Russia" and was carried out by "accomplices to terrorism."

It would be shocking if NATO were to defend Turkey under such circumstances because by its actions, Turkey is providing material support to the terrorist group ISIS. For NATO to defend that would make all of us accomplices to terrorism.

Readers can view REAL TIME SHIP INFO at the AIS Maritime web site, to see for yourselves that Russian ships are being held from transit. The web site address is: http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:27/centery:40/zoom:9


Last modified on Sunday, 29 November 2015 17:54
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm........

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://news.vice.com/article/insid...e-middle-easts-most-unwanted-people-to-africa

Inside the $100 Million Scheme to Send the Middle East's Most Unwanted People to Africa

By Peter Salisbury
November 19, 2015 | 11:40 am

Iyad el-Baghdadi doesn't know why he was called into the immigration office. It was April of 2014, and the 36 year old was being told he had a choice: He could permanently leave the United Arab Emirates, where he had lived almost his entire life, or he could face indefinite imprisonment.

El-Baghdadi does, however, have a theory about why he was called in. His tweets.

He had written a series of them criticizing the 2013 overthrow of Egypt's democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, by a UAE- and Saudi-backed military junta. He had also decried the Egyptian military's subsequent brutal crackdown on political opposition.

The deportation didn't come as a total surprise. A startup business and educational consultant who had worked closely with the UAE government in the past, el-Baghdadi rose to prominence as a prolific commentator during the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, lending his full-blooded support on Twitter to protest movements in Tunisia, Egypt, and elsewhere in the region. By the time he was deported, he had been skating on thin ice for years with the UAE's quietly autocratic government, which loathes the Muslim Brotherhood — Morsi's party — and has arrested a number of alleged Brotherhood members since 2011.

El-Baghdadi ended up spending a couple of weeks in prison before he agreed to be deported. He was born in Kuwait, is of Palestinian descent, and lived in the UAE most of his life; his only travel documents, issued in Egypt, mark him as a Palestinian refugee. The UAE ended up sending him to Malaysia, one of the few countries that would accept his papers. But when he arrived, he was told he could not enter the country.

For the next three weeks, he says, he contemplated the possibility of spending years in administrative limbo in the international lounge of Kuala Lumpur airport, a sort of modern-day Mehran Karimi Nasseri, the Iranian refugee who spent 18 years in Terminal One of Paris's Charles De Gaulle Airport. Finally, however, he was allowed to enter the country. As all of this was happening, his wife was pregnant with what would be the couple's first child — Ismail el-Baghdadi, who was born a stateless refugee this past June before the Baghdadis were ultimately granted refugee status in Norway.

Even before he was deported, el-Baghdadi was under no illusion that he would ever be able to become a formal citizen of the UAE. In the Arab Gulf states, he says, "citizenship isn't treated as an automatic right — rather, it's a reward for political loyalty with a string of benefits. But if you aren't willing to kiss enough ass, they don't want you there."

* * *

El-Baghdadi's experience isn't new or uncommon for Middle East's large and rapidly growing community of exiles and refugees. Palestinians have been expelled in large numbers from both Jordan and Kuwait in the past when they've rubbed those countries' rulers the wrong way.

What is new, however, is the way the Gulf States, intolerant even of critical tweets, are now punishing their own citizens by rendering them stateless. This, el-Baghdadi says, is part of a new, harsher interpretation of the social contract among the region's oil and gas rich monarchies. "Being a citizen or a 'local' can potentially make you a lifelong recipient of government largess," he says. In return for a cradle-to-grave welfare system "you just need to be completely apolitical and quiet." Rocking the boat has become an increasingly risky business.

Since the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, three of the Gulf states have revoked the citizenships of hundreds of people, the majority of them advocates for political reform or democratization. Bahrain has revoked the citizenship of 159 people since 2012; Kuwait made about 100 of its citizens non-Kuwaitis with the stroke of a pen in 2014 and 2015. The UAE stripped seven of its citizens of their nationality in 2011; in July 2014, the regional Al Sharq newspaper claimed that hundreds more had been secretly rendered stateless. Amnesty International has independently made a similar claim — that Emerati authorities planned to revoke the citizenship of "scores" of nationals.



Abu Dhabi. (Photo via Wikimedia Commons)

In 2014, Oman passed a law allowing the government to arbitrarily revoke the citizenship of anyone working "against the interests" of the state, and Bahrain passed similar legislation allowing the state to strip the citizenship of anyone who failed "the duty of loyalty." Saudi officials have publicly mulled following suit.

This January, Kuwaiti authorities arrested Saad al-Ajmi, the onetime director of the Kuwait office of the Saudi Arabian television channel Al-Arabiya, as he was about to board a flight to Saudi Arabia with his family. His arrest — for skipping out on a short jail sentence that he says he was not aware of — surprised many in Kuwait who knew al-Ajmi as the well-regarded spokesman for the Popular Action Bloc, a parliamentary coalition that is vocally critical of the government appointed directly by the Emir of Kuwait. Surprise turned to shock when, three months later, al-Ajmi was stripped of Kuwaiti citizenship and deported from the country.

When the head of a household loses citizenship in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, their families are often also stripped of their citizenship, creating a multiplier effect: Hundreds of people may have ultimately lost their status as Kuwaiti citizens due to the purge of 2014, according to human rights researchers tracking their cases, while more than 1,000 Bahrainis may have been plunged into the administrative void. These are people who learn that they and their loved ones have gone from being citizens of some of the world's wealthiest countries — and most comprehensive welfare states — to being outcasts and exiles without a home.

"Stripping a human identity and exil[ing] him from his country is tough and difficult," al-Ajmi told VICE News from Saudi Arabia, where he is currently living while trying to appeal the decision to revoke his citizenship. "Especially [because] I am currently deprived of meeting my family because they too were stripped [of their] identity."

Contrary to Kuwaiti government's claims, al-Ajmi says he does not hold a Saudi passport, nor does he have residency there, meaning that he is now effectively stateless.

"[My family] are currently living in Kuwait without identity," he said. "That means they cannot leave Kuwait, and I am forbidden from entering."

A UN official who works on the legal aspects of citizenship at the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the main UN body tasked with dealing with the Gulf's bedoun, or stateless people, is frank about stripping the citizenship of political dissidents: It's against international law.

"If someone is contrary to the vital interests of the state, if they have committed treason, that would give rise to deprivation of nationality," the official said. "But you would never be able to strip someone of their nationality on discriminatory grounds, on the basis of race, religion, political views. That would not be legitimate."

'This thing happened to me because of my political positions and my declared views. I am not a terrorist or supporter of violence.'

It hasn't stopped the citizenship stripping from happening. In most cases, the legal rationale has been vague, with governments citing threats to national security and stability while publicly claiming that people being made stateless are part of grand conspiracies linked to shadowy foreign powers. In Bahrain, the royal family plays up fears of Iranian intervention through its restive Shia population, which took to the streets to call for a more participatory political system in 2011. Since then, Shias have been the main targets of citizenship stripping. In the UAE, the threats cited by authorities are political Islamists tied to the Muslim Brotherhood trying to overthrow the government and install a Sunni theocracy. In Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, critics of the regime are labeled fifth-columnists with a wide range of agendas, from being part of a Muslim Brotherhood–backed coup plot to working on behalf of Iran.

To be sure, some of these external threats are very real, even if they're overplayed. But a good number of those convicted of sedition are avowed secular advocates of democracy who say that they're facing sham charges. Often, the offense committed is a tweet or Facebook post that crosses a line in the sand drawn by their countries' autocratic rulers.

Al-Ajmi's only crime, he argued, was publicly calling for a more transparent and participatory political system.

"This thing happened to me because of my political positions and my declared views," he said. "I am not a terrorist or supporter of violence."

* * *

Citizenship stripping cases like al-Ajmi's are part of a wider trend of deepening autocracy in the Gulf sparked by the Arab Spring uprisings 2011, analysts and human rights campaigners say. "Across the Gulf since 2011, when monarchies saw how vulnerable they were to people within their borders, they have been eager to develop mechanisms for prosecuting people who are critical of them," said Belkis Wille, a researcher at Human Rights Watch.

An initial round of prosecutions in 2011 and 2012 was aimed at quieting the activist community, Wille said. "But the reality is that this wave of prosecutions and heavy sentences given by the courts hasn't silenced critics, so governments are looking to more effective ways of silencing people…. Revoking citizenship and deportation affects an entire family. One individual might be willing to take the risk for themselves, but not for everyone close to them."

Nowhere is this shift more apparent than Kuwait, once seen as the most politically liberal country in the Gulf, with a vibrant if fractious parliament and a relatively free press.

Related: Kuwait Is Buying a Bunch of Weapons to Protect Itself From the Islamic State

"They want you to eat, sleep, say nothing," Fahed al-Minouini, a wheelchair-bound pro-democracy activist, said of Kuwait's ruling Al Sabah family as we sat earlier this year with several other men in front of the well-appointed Kuwait City home of Musallam al-Barrak, an opposition politician and the leader of the Popular Action Bloc. Al-Barrak himself was not there because he was in prison awaiting sentencing for a speech he gave in 2012; in May he was convicted of lèse majesté — insulting the Emir — and handed a two-year jail sentence.

Like a number of the men gathered in al-Barrak's spacious brick courtyard, al-Miniouni also faced a lengthy prison term for taking part in protests and repeating the text of al-Barrak's speech. Though it's fiery stuff for the region, it sounds almost surreally polite to Western ears. This is the most contentious moment in the speech: "Mr. Emir, we will not permit you to turn Kuwait into an autocracy."

"Before 2011, there was a big area of freedom," al-Miniouni said. "Right now there is not a single chance of freedom. You send a tweet and you will go to jail on fabricated charges. Now if you talk, they take your nationality, your ID. You go to sleep Kuwaiti and you wake up not Kuwaiti."

* * *

But the Gulf states stripping dissident voices of their citizenship now face a problem. Revoking citizenship is largely an administrative task, a matter of filling out paperwork. But it doesn't solve the problem of the people themselves, and where to send them. In fact, the bulk of Gulf citizens who have had their citizenships revoked remain inside the borders of the countries that have told them they're no longer welcome.

Jalal Fairooz, a onetime member of Bahraini parliament for the opposition Shia Wefaq party, didn't need to be deported. He was among the first people from the island kingdom to have his citizenship revoked in November 2012, though he had not initially been on the government's list of people to make stateless, he claims. Instead, he and his brother were added after authorities learned that they were visiting the United Kingdom — there was no need to deport them as they were already outside of Bahrain.

But that still left everyone else who were rendered stateless.

"They had and still have some difficulty in deporting those who had had their citizenship stripped because no country would accept them because they don't have official travel documents," Fairooz said. It is effectively impossible to deport someone who does not have proper travel documents. To get around this problem, in 2014 the Bahrain government briefly reinstated the citizenship of senior Shia cleric Ayatollah Hussein al-Najati before deporting him to Lebanon. Once he was gone, the government again made him stateless and cancelled his passport.

A solution to the newly stateless is already in place, having been in the planning stages for years in the Gulf states among large populations of bedoun: outsource the problem.

Thanks to Lawrence of Arabia and other movies, books, and TV shows, to Western ears the word bedoun conjures up images of desert nomads of the past: TE Lawrence and proud sheikhs in crisp white robes. But for many in the Gulf, it has become a dirty word.

The bedoun, who in many cases come from the same nomadic tribes as their peers with formal citizenship, fell through the cracks when the countries in which they lived were being formed by military conquest, as was the case in Saudi Arabia, or a pullout of British colonial officials in the 1960s and 1970s in the rest of the region. The newly minted states began to register citizens, but the parents and grandparents of today's bedouns failed to fill in the necessary paperwork for a variety of reasons: illiteracy, or not knowing the registration process was necessary, or because the idea of a state and a ruling government was one that did not appeal to the nomads.

This was a huge mistake.

Today, unlike their peers with citizenship, the bedoun have to pay for healthcare and education. Because they lack necessary documentation, they struggle to find jobs even when they are well-educated. Most cannot leave to study or work abroad because they do not have valid travel documents, and those who do have them worry that they may not be allowed to return to their home countries.

There are between 10,000 and 20,000 bedoun in the UAE, about 70,000 in Saudi Arabia, and as many as 200,000 in Kuwait. The rulers of these countries typically see them as a nuisance, since the rulers bear a degree of legal responsibility toward people who were born within their borders. But leaders are loathe to take on the financial burden of supporting the bedoun in their generous welfare states — particularly given that they have long viewed the bedoun in much the same way Donald Trump views Mexican immigrants.

"Iraqis and Saudis" is how one Kuwaiti politician derisively characterizes his country's bedoun to VICE News. "Pakistanis and Indians," says a member of a leading Emerati family in the UAE. Vocal agitation for citizenship and improved rights by a segment of the bedoun population has led many of the region's rulers to take an even dimmer view.

The Kuwaiti government in particular has long struggled with a solution to what elite Kuwaitis call its "bedoun problem." The ruling Al-Sabah family has promised on a number of occasions to find a workable solution for its tens of thousands of bedoun, and at times has seemed prepared to make stateless people citizens. But widespread antagonism toward the bedoun from within the ruling family — some of whom see the bedoun as Iraqi fifth-columnists and accuse them of supporting Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 — along with the continued agitation of bedoun rights activists and their supporters, left the Al-Sabah family unconvinced. The 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, which emboldened many bedoun to demand expanded rights, compounded the family's suspicions.

The Kuwaiti bedoun now believe that their governments are working on a plan to wash their hands of them entirely, by pushing them into taking so-called economic citizenships, passports procured from other countries in exchange for cash — a technique also being employed by the UAE. These paid-for citizenships, which are rarely accompanied by basic benefits or even consular assistance, would allow the bedoun to apply for permanent residency in their home countries and even receive benefits like free education and healthcare. But the citizenships would also absolve the rulers of the countries they call home of responsibility for them — and make deportation much easier.

The little-known plan would see responsibility for thousands of bedoun from the Gulf States transferred to the small island nation of Comoros has been known of in the region for some time. It has been publicly promoted by both the governments of Kuwait and the UAE, and is being mulled as a possible solution to the problem of the "new bedoun" whose citizenships have recently been revoked.



Moroni, the capital of the Comoros. (Photo via Wikimedia Commons)

The plan can be traced back to a 2006 real estate deal backed by, among others, a senior member of the Kuwaiti royal family and led by a French-Syrian media entrepreneur with deep ties to the ruling families of both Kuwait and the UAE. This man, Bashar Kiwan, has been repeatedly described by sources in the region as the intellectual architect of the plan, which saw promises of an investment of more than $100 million in Comoros used as collateral in negotiations to introduce a new law that allowed the island nation's then-president to sell tens of thousands of economic citizenships directly to the Gulf States.

An economic citizenship is basically a paid-for passport that allows the buyer to travel as a national of the country that issued the document, and to live and work there. But in most cases, it limits the degree to which the host government is responsible for the passport holder. In most countries, the idea is that a wealthy individual invests an agreed amount of money in the host country in exchange for a limited version of citizenship.

Economic citizenships are popular among wealthy businessmen who have passports that can make international travel difficult — like those from China or Nigeria — and among people who have had political trouble at home. Sometimes people buy them so they can travel to places they would rather their governments not know they are visiting, or where they want to hide money from being taxed. In general they are sold in one-off transactions between an individual and the host government, which does its due diligence on the person applying for citizenship.

But in the case of the Comoran deal with the UAE and Kuwait, the citizenships appear to have been sold en masse so they could be freely distributed among the bedoun with very few checks or balances in place.

In a 2009 diplomatic cable obtained by Wikileaks, US diplomatic officials in Comoros asked their colleagues in the Gulf for information on Kiwan, the general manager of the Kuwait-registered firm Comoros Gulf Holdings (CGH).

"[C]GH actively and openly lobbied for a controversial 'economic citizenship law' that appeared to be rejected, then was passed at the National Assembly," the American diplomats wrote.

The legislation was sold by its advocates as an opportunity to encourage investment in the tiny island state, which remains dependent on grants from abroad — many of them provided by the Gulf states — for almost a third of state revenues. In 2008, Saïd Attoumani, the Comoroan minister responsible for promoting inward investment, touted the legislation — it was initially limited to 4,000 economic citizenships for residents of the UAE but was later expanded to include an undisclosed number of citizenships for residents of Kuwait — as having the potential to net up to $100 million from wealthy Gulf investors for the island. The new law was passed in November of 2008 after a number of "fact-finding" missions by Comoran politicians to Kuwait and the UAE.

No mention was made at the time of the bedoun, but few in the Comoros were under any illusion as to how the economic citizenship law was to be used. In another cable, this time in 2009, American diplomats reported that opposition politicians already claimed that the law was mainly being used to allow the government of Comoros "to sell passports to stateless persons in Kuwait and the Emirates."

The $100 million cited by Attoumani came from a business plan being shopped around by Kiwan, along with investors including Sheikh Sabah Jaber Mubarak Al-Sabah, a nephew of the Kuwaiti emir. As documents obtained by VICE News show, rather than wealthy Gulf investors, the scheme was aimed at convincing bedoun families to invest in the development in the hope of obtaining passports.

In 2009, the Massachusetts-incorporated firm SCAC Inc. commissioned the financial advisory firm KPMG, which describes itself as "the largest professional finance service company in the world," to assess the feasibility of a real estate development in the Comoros. KPMG, according to the report obtained by VICE News through a Gulf businessman [pdf at the end of this article], based its assessment on an existing plan first formulated in 2006. The business case that the partners presented to KPMG was based on the assumption that investment in the scheme would be driven by Gulf bedoun in need of economic citizenships, who would purchase more than half of the properties on offer.

The bigger the investment, the more citizenships would be approved. Two slides from the KPMG report break the deals down: Properties bought for €30,000 — they "focus on minimal quality and price / cost," the report says of the 80 square meter homes — would yield citizenships for families of up to four members. An outlay of €200,000 would return a 1,000 square meter home with a garden, beach views, and seven passports. Big spenders would "even [be] eligible for a diplomatic passport and official honorary titles (e.g., honorary consul, presidential advisor, etc.)." The development was tied to a commitment by the Comoroan government to provide up to 50,000 economic citizenships for life to investors.

'Citizenship a way to discriminate, privilege, punish — it's a tool. It's important to understand that it's being used in the most evil of ways.'

The report pulls no punches in explaining why the proposition might be attractive to the stateless people of the Gulf, or even to full citizens. "Many Bidoon [sic] have lived in countries their entire lives, but are not entitled to full citizenship rights of their country," it reads. In a later section entitled "Acquiring Economic Citizenship," the KPMG analysts point to "an insurance policy in times of political strife (e.g., ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, Palestinians, Kurds, Bidoon, Gulf Arabs)."

When VICE News asked four members of Kuwait's bedoun community whether thousands of bedoun families would be able and willing to pay €30,000 (about $32,000) for a home in the Comoros, the question was met with derision. The €200,000 figure produced outright laughter. The bedoun face high levels of unemployment, often live hand-to-mouth, and perhaps most importantly "do not see themselves as future Africans."

The legislation to grant the citizenships, at the discretion of then-president Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, was passed in 2008, but the real estate development stagnated. Instead, the UAE and Kuwait each appear to have paid the Comoran government undisclosed sums of money for large numbers of passports.

Earlier this year, the Indian Ocean Newsletter, a subsidiary of the political analysis firm Africa Intelligence, reported that Sambi's successor, Ikililou Dhoinine, was investigating the misappropriation of €24 million from an account opened by the Comoran government at the Central Bank of the UAE in Abu Dhabi for payments made by the UAE government for Comoran passports. In November of 2014, meanwhile, leading Kuwaiti interior ministry official Mazen al-Jarrah told the local Al-Jarrah newspaper that his country's bedoun would be granted Comoran economic citizenship free of charge once a Comoran embassy had opened in the emirate.

Although the Gulf states have certain legal responsibilities to their bedoun populations as long as they live within their borders, the UN official says, there is nothing illegal in offering people economic citizenship or refusing to naturalize stateless people. But under such agreements, countries like the Comoros rarely have many legal responsibilities toward their new "citizens."

"Any good lawyer would say the Comoros has no need to provide compensation or protection to their citizenship," he said.

According to bedoun in Kuwait, the government has been pushing Comoran and other economic citizenships (including ones from Belize and Bangladesh) on the country's stateless people for a number of years, often refusing to issue paperwork until bedoun applicants applied for some form of citizenship abroad.

"Everywhere you go to get a document, they push it," said Mona Kareem, a Kuwait bedoun rights activist and student at New York University. She is in the process of applying for refugee status in the US after the Kuwaiti government refused to issue her a fresh batch of travel documents. "They say that if you don't do this, we can't help you."

According to Kareem, this is part of a wider systemic attempt to disenfranchise the bedoun, a sentiment echoed repeatedly by other Kuwaiti bedoun interviewed by VICE News. For instance, official paperwork is allegedly altered so it shows that a bedoun applicant was born in, or has historical ties to, either neighboring Saudi Arabia or Iraq.

"The agencies have not only been trying to harass us, but to create a process of discrimination," she says. "[They want to make it look like] people came from somewhere else and hid their records."

Fears over the Kuwaiti and Emirati government's agenda in procuring economic citizenships have been accompanied by the deportation of Ahmed Abdulkhaleq, an Emirati bedoun activist, and the pending case of another bedoun rights activist in Kuwait, Hakeem al-Fadhli.

On May 17, 2012, Abdulkhaleq, a prominent advocate for bedoun rights who blogged under the name Emeraty Bedoun, was issued a Comoran passport after coming under pressure from the Emirati authorities to take on foreign economic citizenship. Five days later, he was arrested. Abdulkhaleq was not heard from again until he was deported to Thailand two months later. He had been held without charge, he said at the time, and was told to choose between indefinite detention or deportation. He chose the latter.

VICE News reached out to Abulkhaleq, who now lives in Canada, on a number of occasions, but he did not respond.

In March, VICE News met with al-Fadhli in Kuwait. At the time, he was living as a fugitive, on the run after more than a decade of run-ins with the law.

"I have been tortured two times, been taken to court 138 times," he said of the Kuwaiti government's attempts to pressure him to quit publicly agitating for better treatment for bedoun. Where in the past he had taken the punishments meted out to him as they came, his calculus had recently changed.



Kuwait City. (Photo via Wikimedia Commons)

In late January, al-Fadhli was sentenced to a year in jail for his part in staging protests calling for improved bedoun rights and expanded political participation for ordinary Kuwaitis. Under the terms of his sentence, he was set to be deported after he did his time. When he met VICE News, he had chosen to skip bail and live on the run, changing locations every night and juggling mobile phones, doing his best to evade the law as one of the best-known faces of dissent in a country slightly smaller than the US state of New Jersey. He firmly believed that he would be deported if he allowed himself to be jailed, pointing to Abdulkhaleq's case.

"They want to get rid of me and this is one way of doing that," he said.

The Comoran economic citizenships are now being used to get rid of the so-called new bedoun, those recently stripped of their citizenships. Six of the so-called "UAE 7," a group of pro-democracy campaigners — the majority of them Sunni Islamists with affiliations to the Muslim Brotherhood — were stripped of their citizenship in 2012. They were jailed and had their citizenships revoked after refusing to sign documents agreeing to apply for foreign citizenship, believed to be Comoran, before they were formally rendered stateless, people with knowledge of their cases told VICE News. (Amnesty International has independently reported the same claim.) Several Kuwaitis who have had their citizenships stripped are also said to be under pressure to take on Comoran economic citizenship to "make their situation easier," a person working on the legal aspects of their cases says.

Rather than a birthright, in the Gulf citizenship is "a way to discriminate, privilege, punish — it's a tool," Kareem said. "It's important that we understand that citizenship is being used in the most evil of ways."

* * *

The starkness of choice for potential dissidents who still enjoy the benefits of citizenship was laid bare when al-Fadhli picked me up from my hotel in central Kuwait City one rainy day this past March. He drove me to the outskirts of the city and pulled up to a patch of dirt surrounded by ad hoc structures made of whitewashed adobe and corrugated iron. This was Al Taimam, the main bedoun settlement in Kuwait City. He motioned to a bridge that crossed a busy intersection. We climbed it, gingerly sidestepping broken glass. He motioned to a series of well-groomed villas on the other side of the road.

"Look here," he said. "What do you see? Nice houses. A free wedding hall, Houses worth KD500,000 [$1.66 million]. That's a lot even by Western standards. Free education. A sports center. A nice walkway. It's clean. It's green. It defines life. You can start a life there. You can build up good health. You can live in a proper place."

This, he said, was how an ordinary Kuwaiti could reasonably expect to live. The choice, al-Fadhli said, motioning to the two sides of the bridge, was like choosing between heaven and hell; full citizenship in a rich nation and the benefits that accompany it, or administrative limbo.

Yet even facing this choice, many Kuwaitis have decided to continued to agitate for change, underscoring the difficulty of governing through coercion alone. In the UAE, the crackdown on dissent has worked by and large; public political activity, even on social media sites now carefully monitored by the security services, has all but disappeared. But in Bahrain and Kuwait, the same approach has failed. People now criticize the Kuwaiti emir, Sabah al-Sabah, and his family openly, something few would have dared in the past.

"There is an outburst of sentiment that has been seen across the region, and whether or not it is democracy or social justice it will eventually morph into liberation movements," said Christopher Davidson of the UK's Durham University, who has written several books on the Arab Gulf states including After the Sheikhs: The Coming Fall of the Gulf Monarchies.

In the long term, the Gulf states will not be able to afford to run the kind of expansive welfare states that provide a carrot motivating citizens not to engage in dissent. And the state now face a choice of doubling down on a strategy of repression and disenfranchisement, or reforming in the hope that a more open political system will appease their populations.

"These six Gulf monarchies, although they have very similar patterns, are very different," Davidson said. "We could see the end of this system of government doesn't necessarily mean popular revolutions. It could mean a shift in system of governance."

As I toured Al Taimam with al-Fadhli, we came to halt in front of a nondescript home made of cinder blocks. Iron bars cover the windows. It was here, al-Fadhli said, that a young bedoun man named Mohammed al-Emwazi stayed when he was last in Kuwait. Al-Emwazi left Kuwait with his family in the 1990s, settling in the UK as a refugee and eventually attaining British citizenship.

He is now better known as Jihadi John, the man who slit the throats of Western hostages in several propaganda videos for the Islamic State (IS).

"He leaves Kuwait, he goes to a land of freedom, he goes to a good school, a good university, and he goes on to be Jihadi John," al-Fadhli said of al-Emwazi. "Now imagine what someone who didn't have all of this opportunities might do."

Al-Emwazi was killed last week in a drone strike coordinated by the US and UK, both governments said.

For Kuwait's disaffected youth — bedoun and full citizens alike — groups like al Qaeda and IS have increasing appeal, al-Fadhli said, and Al Taimam is being targeted by recruiters for jihadist groups abroad that promise riches, glory, and a place to belong. In September, a Kuwaiti court sentenced seven men to death for their part in the bombing of a Shia mosque in Kuwait City by the local wing of IS. Among their number was Abdulrahman Sabah Saud, a Kuwaiti bedoun who had confessed to driving the bomber to the mosque. Several Kuwaiti bedoun interviewed for this story told VICE News that recruiters for both al Qaeda and IS have come to view Al Taimam as a rich recruiting ground.

"The one concern has to be that people who are stateless and disenfranchised are ideal targets for extremist groups," the UN official said.

Earlier in the day I had asked al-Fadhli whether he would consider seeking asylum elsewhere in the world. "Every time I go on trial people ask, 'Why don't you go abroad and claim asylum?'" he said. "But what can I do? Be a refugee? I would rather be in jail for 10 years. I won't leave my country."

I asked why, although I already had an idea what his answer would be.

"Kuwait, for me, is belonging," he said.

Follow Peter Salisbury on Twitter: @altoflacoblanco
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...o-turn-arab-countries-around/article27509852/

DEMOGRAPHICS

Banking on Arab youth to turn Arab countries around

Doug Saunders
The Globe and Mail
Comments 92

Published Saturday, Nov. 28, 2015 6:00AM EST
Last updated Friday, Nov. 27, 2015 1:37PM EST

Is the Arab world a lost cause? You’d be forgiven for reaching that conclusion. At a moment when the world’s other once-poor regions have all experienced significant improvements, the 22 Arabic-speaking countries stretched between Oman and Mauritania, with few exceptions, are stuck with stagnant economies, backward strongman political systems and simmering threats – and that’s the luckier ones.

But imagine for a moment that the current chaos and unrest is only a period of turbulence between two eras. Imagine if, a century from now, we were to look back upon the Arab 2010s as something like the French 1790s or the American 1770s or the English 1640s – a terrible time that foretold the creation of a better time.

To imagine this, you’d have to conclude that the current Arab “youth bulge” – the extraordinary proportion of the region’s population (at least a fifth) who are between 17 and 25 and whose unemployment, disappointment and youthful zealotry are currently key sources of its violence, instability and chaos – largely come of age, in a few years, as a new generation of adults seeking better economic and political futures.

Once the civil wars, riots, coups and countercoups played themselves out and some uneasy semi-democratic détente was reached, that generation’s education and literacy, urbanized and connected aspirations and entrepreneurial outlook gave rise to a period of improvement and reform that, while far from utopian, put the Middle East and North Africa onto the same modernizing track as the rest of the world.

This is exactly the mind exercise performed by Bessma Momani, a political scientist based at the University of Waterloo (and frequent Globe and Mail contributor) who specializes in the economies of the Middle East, in a new book surprisingly titled Arab Dawn: Arab Youth and the Demographic Dividend They Will Bring.

She spent several years surveying and interviewing young Arabs in half a dozen countries. She finds plenty of troubles – staggering unemployment, rising religiosity, sexism – but beneath it an emerging generation who are modern, educated and unwilling to settle for the closed nationalist economies, authoritarian politics and enforced subservience their parents endured.

Arabs are young, but aren’t having huge families, so are in a demographic sweet spot. Dr. Momani foresees this combination of factors paying the dividend her subtitle suggests.

“Throughout the Arab world,” she writes, “the number of the very young, those up to age 14, is shrinking and the number age 65 and older is growing negligibly, while those in the economically productive years between 25 and 64 are expanding. The average Arab household thus will soon shift from one full of dependents to one full of working-age individuals. Lower dependency ratios and rising human capital could produce rapid economic growth that might be sustained for at least a generation.”

No other place in the world is following this pattern: Even China now faces a rising dependency ratio.

But demography is not destiny. The last time Arab countries seemed to be well-positioned demographically and economically, after the Second World War, they fell prey to Cold War politics that propped up authoritarian regimes and financed stagnant rent-seeking economies. This, in turn, kept family structures, class structures and relations between the sexes trapped in the past.

This is now visibly changing. Although it’s sad to see that Egyptians consider it “progress” that the proportion of women enduring genital mutilation has dropped from 90 to 80 per cent, on the other hand a huge proportion of Arab women now have university educations (almost 80 per cent in some of the Gulf states). While it’s alarming that state enterprises account for 70 per cent of employment in key countries, it’s encouraging that 15 per cent of young people intend to start a business – three times the rate in the West.

A good number of Arabic scholars have pointed out that the current unrest – including its Islamist extremism – is not a retreat into the past but a reaction to the ruptures of rapid modernization and democratic change. While I’m not so sure the outcome will be the bold new economy and society Dr. Momani describes, I do believe it’s worth imagining such an end point, because only by doing so can we begin to grasp onto something other than a spiral of despair.

Follow Doug Saunders on Twitter: @dougsaunders

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Last edited:

almost ready

Inactive
Published on Nov 27, 2015

Zhirinovsky proposes to drop a nuclear bomb on the Strait of Bosphorus

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky has proposed to crush Turkey via a nuclear missile strike. This is according to the radio station "Moscow speaking".

"Istanbul is very easy to destroy: just one nuclear bomb in the Strait of Bosphorus, and it will wash away. It will be such a terrible flood, the water column will rise 10-15 meters, and the city will not be there any more, and there are 9 million lives in that city", — said the leader of the liberal Democrats.

According to the party's leader, Turkey's allies in NATO will not interfere, "they don't want to die in a nuclear fire". Zhirinovsky noted that currently Turkey is the number one enemy for Russia.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kNt-DufhNY

hmmm
 

mzkitty

I give up.
I should put this here too:


Hmm.... poking around the "Dardanelles" twitter, I saw this:

espressino ‏@ulvdis Nov 28
espressino Retweeted 世界 - 世界

#Turkey, military exercise on a full blockade of the Straits of #blacksea exit for #Russia
#Dardanelles


В Турции начались учения по полной блокаде выхода из проливов Чёрного моря для РФ http://by24.org/2015/11/28/coast_gua...ses_in_turkey/

Translate:

Turkey has begun exercises to complete blockade of the Straits exit the Black Sea for Russian http://by24.org/2015/11/28/coast_gua...ses_in_turkey/

https://twitter.com/pharaon01/status/670527646997078016
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/11/29/world/europe/ap-eu-greece-turkey-tweets.html?_r=0

Greek PM Tsipras Takes on Turkey's Davutoglu on Twitter

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
NOV. 29, 2015, 8:27 P.M. E.S.T.

ATHENS, Greece — A highly unusual online exchange took place on Twitter between the prime ministers of Greece and Turkey late Sunday before the former deleted his tweets - but only from the English version of his account.

The official English-speaking account of Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras (@Tsipras_eu) posted four tweets addressed to his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu, needling him about Turkey's downing of a Russian jet and Turkey's violations of Greek airspace.

"To Prime Minister Davutoglu: Fortunately our pilots are not mercurial as yours against the Russians #EuTurkey" Tsipras tweeted.

Both prime ministers attended an EU-Turkey summit on refugees in Brussels Sunday. Tsipras did not explain whether his tweets reproduced a conversation between the two or were written especially for Twitter.

"What is happening in the Aegean is outrageous and unbelievable #EUTurkey" Tsipras continued. "We're spending billions on weapons. You--to violate our airspace, we--to intercept you #EUTurkey" Tsipras said in a third tweet, referring to intrusions of Turkish planes into Greek airspace, which Turkey contests, and Greek and Turkish pilots frequently buzzing each other.

Tsipras said the two countries should focus on saving refugees, not on weapons.

"We have the most modern aerial weapons systems--and yet, on the ground, we can't catch traffickers who drown innocent people #EUTurkey," the Greek premier said in a fourth tweet.

Davutoglu chose to respond to only the first tweet and not engage in a detailed dialogue.

"Comments on pilots by @atsipras seem hardly in tune with the spirit of the day. Alexis: let us focus on our positive agenda," @Ahmet_Davutoglu responded.

The tweets quickly sparked a vigorous reaction on the Twitter, with many condemning Tsipras engaging in dialogue in this manner, but a few defending him.

"Tsipras showing off his twitter 'diplomacy' skills," said a user calling himself The Greek Analyst.

"Much as I'm increasingly critical of Tsipras lately, remarkable Twitter diplomacy," commented another user.

Then, the @Tsipras_EU account deleted the four tweets, which have remained posted, however, in Tsipras' Greek language account, @atsipras.

The deletion sparked further furious tweeting, with comments such as "who is handling your account?" being the most common.

Then, the English account posted further tweets, but less controversial this time.

"Important Summit today for the EU, Turkey and our broader region #EUTurkey"

A last Tsipras tweet obliquely referred to the deleted ones:

"We are in the same neighborhood and we have to talk honestly so we can reach solutions #EUTurkey."

And the comments, of course, continue, both for and against this kind of Twitter diplomacy.

There were some who saw the humorous side of things:

"The conflict escalates; a short while ago Tsipras commented 'you've gained weight' on one of Davutoglu's Instagram photos from last summer," user @dimmarg tweeted, in Greek.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151130/af-boko-haram-7ebb1f0d81.html

Boko Haram destroys Nigerian military base, 107 troops MIA

Nov 30, 10:39 AM (ET)

YOLA, Nigeria (AP) — Residents say Boko Haram destroyed a military base as soldiers fled and only self-defense fighters prevented the insurgents from retaking a northeastern Nigerian town.

Resident James Ularamu said civilian fighters held Gulak town on Sunday night until the military sent reinforcements who fought off the extremists.

The attack came as a military intelligence officer confirmed that 107 soldiers remain missing five days after a battle in which the rebels drove away in a T-72 tank. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak on the issue.

Nigeria's military has denied dozens of soldiers are missing, but it often does not report embarrassing information.

The setbacks come as Nigeria's government admitted it cannot crush by December the 6-year uprising that has killed some 20,000 people.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151130/af--africa-china-dbe19e80aa.html

Chinese president to head to Africa

Nov 30, 10:12 AM (ET)
By FARAI MUTSAKA

(AP) U.S. President Barack Obama, left, meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping during...
Full Image

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — Some immigration signs at Zimbabwe's main international airport are in Chinese, a sign of China's deep economic inroads in Africa, which Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit this week.

Xi arrives Tuesday in Zimbabwe before heading on Wednesday to South Africa. There, he will attend a forum on cooperation between Africa and China, whose investment on the continent has soared in the past decade. Zimbabwe, whose economy is faltering, would like to get a bigger piece of it.

China's overall trade with Africa topped $200 billion last year but has slowed over the past two years as the weakening Chinese economy demands fewer of the continent's oil, copper and other raw materials.

Chinese-built roads, bridges and power installations are found across Africa, often paid for in resources or through loans from China that must eventually be repaid.

(AP) French President Francois Hollande, left, greets China's President Xi Jinping as he...
Full Image

Along with those looming debts, some African nations have expressed anger over Chinese companies' use of Chinese workers and other practices that fail to benefit local economies.

Inexpensive Chinese goods have long been popular in Africa, and in the last decade Chinese merchants have started eliminating the middle man and setting up retail outlets of their own, much to local merchants' chagrin. In 2011, riots in the Ugandan capital of Kampala largely targeted the city's foreign merchants.

There are about a million Chinese living in Africa, mostly engaged in commercial work, according to the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce in Africa.

Xi's visit to Zimbabwe is his first and he'll meet President Robert Mugabe, who has been quoted by Zimbabwean state media as saying they will discuss "some of the projects and programs we want China to assist us in undertaking."

Despite the collaboration, Mugabe has expressed concern in the past, telling the Chinese in 2012 to respect Zimbabwe's investment and labor laws.

"To our Chinese friends we say, 'You don't just come, you have to respect our rules," the Zimbabwean leader said at a gathering of the ruling party.

China pumped $600 million into Zimbabwe in 2013, making it the biggest foreign investor with interests ranging from gold, diamond and platinum mining to tobacco, nickel, chrome, construction, energy and telecommunications, said Chinese ambassador Huang Ping.

Zimbabwe's economy is battered by mass company closures, high unemployment, low liquidity and foreign direct investment and food shortages. The government has been struggling to raise money to pay its workers, often shifting pay dates. Over two-thirds of Zimbabweans survive on informal trade, according to the African Development Bank.

Xi travels to South Africa where he will be from Wednesday through Saturday on his second state visit to that country. In addition to attending the China and Africa forum security will also be on his agenda. Three Chinese were among 20 people killed in an Islamic extremist assault on a hotel in Mali last week.

China has said it is holding discussions with Djibouti on setting up a naval logistics center in the Horn of Africa nation to service Chinese anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden and other regional missions. It hopes the center could ease difficulties in refueling and replenishing Chinese navy ships and provide recreation for officers and sailors.

Like India, China has looked to African states to bolster its profile. South Africa has been especially supportive on the political front, twice barring entry to the Dalai Lama, a Nobel Peace Prize winner who is derided by Beijing as an advocate for Tibetan independence from Chinese rule.

---

Associated Press writer Christopher Bodeen contributed to this report from Beijing.
 

vestige

Deceased
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151130/af-boko-haram-7ebb1f0d81.html

Boko Haram destroys Nigerian military base, 107 troops MIA

Nov 30, 10:39 AM (ET)

YOLA, Nigeria (AP) — Residents say Boko Haram destroyed a military base as soldiers fled and only self-defense fighters prevented the insurgents from retaking a northeastern Nigerian town.

Resident James Ularamu said civilian fighters held Gulak town on Sunday night until the military sent reinforcements who fought off the extremists.

The attack came as a military intelligence officer confirmed that 107 soldiers remain missing five days after a battle in which the rebels drove away in a T-72 tank. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak on the issue.

Nigeria's military has denied dozens of soldiers are missing, but it often does not report embarrassing information.

The setbacks come as Nigeria's government admitted it cannot crush by December the 6-year uprising that has killed some 20,000 people.


Sounds familiar.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://breakingdefense.com/2015/11/us-steadily-retreating-in-south-china-sea-dispute/

US ‘Steadily Retreating’ In South China Sea Dispute

By Dean Cheng
on November 29, 2015 at 3:37 PM
Comments 65

Those of us who cover the US military in detail, those in the military and those who spend lots of time around the military tend to be at least mildly obsessed with Star Trek and Star Wars. As his opening make clear, Dean Cheng is truly one of the tribe. But his topic, freedom of the seas and how the US, China and other countries cope with the difficult calculus of Taiwan, China, the South China Sea and the larger questions of international law and trade — let alone what is right — is deadly serious. Read on. The Editor.

When the Jedi Council assembled in Star Wars Episode I “The Phantom Menace,” they discussed a prophecy that they would soon be joined by one who would “bring balance to the Force.” Little did they expect that the One would achieve this balance by collapsing the old order.

Reality now seems to be mirroring fiction, as the Administration steadily obscures what it means by the “rebalance” to Asia in the six weeks leading to the next episode of the “Star Wars” franchise. American B-52s and the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battlegroup both operated in the South China Sea recently, providing ample opportunity to conduct operations within 12 nautical miles of China’s artificial islands, and clearly sending the message to Beijing and the world of the seriousness with which the United States takes freedom of the seas.

960117-N-7729M-002 (December 20, 1995).... The U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) conducts a weapons on-load with the ammunition ship USS Santa Barbara (AE 28) in the waters off the Virginia-Carolina coast, following her post deployment yard period, at the Norfolk Naval Shipyard, in Portsmouth, Virginia. Official U.S. Navy Photo by Photographer's Mate 2nd. Class Michael Tuemler
USS Roosevelt

After a stymied ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus, where China battled hard to stop the group from taking any stance on the South China Sea, Southeast Asia is clearly becoming the focal point of growing tensions between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. As China continues to challenge the United States on the competing principles of sovereignty and freedom of the seas, the reefs, spits, rocks, and islands in the Spratlys have become the center of the battle

For the Chinese, the point is simple. As a Chinese admiral observed recently in London, “The South China Sea, as the name indicates, is a sea area that belongs to China. And the sea from the Han dynasty a long time ago where the Chinese people have been working and producing from the sea.” The issue is one of sovereignty, not only over the land and submerged features, but the waters, the “blue soil” that is encompassed within the “nine-dash line,” now more prominently noted in recent Chinese maps.

For the United States, the point is almost equally straightforward. Washington takes no position on the disputes over sovereignty in the South China Sea, but it is firmly committed to the principle of freedom of the seas. All states may use the high seas as they see fit, as they are free for use by all. Conversely, no state may arbitrarily seek to lay claim to swathes of the ocean—and reefs do not exert any justification for territorial claims, even if one builds an artificial island atop it.

Ostensibly as a show of commitment to the principle of freedom of the seas, the USS Theodore Roosevelt operated in the South China Sea, providing a perfect venue for Secretary of Defense Carter to make a speech on this issue. This comes a fortnight after the Administration finally authorized a US ship to transit waters near China’s artificial islands, five months after it stated that American ships would sail where they wished, and three years after the last freedom of navigation operation (FONOP).

Unfortunately, if several recent reports are to be believed, these American ship transits are demonstrating not strength, but weakness.

As it turns out, the USS Lassen reportedly did not engage in a FONOPS to demonstrate that the islands China has built exert no right to territorial waters reaching out 12 nautical miles. Instead, the U.S. ship reportedly conducted “innocent passage,” turning off its radars and grounding its helicopters as it transited within 12 nautical miles of the islands. Undertaking “innocent passage” is done only in another nation’s territorial waters.

In short, the United States, by its actions, may have actually recognized China’s claims. If the reports are correct, the United States treated the artificial island atop Subi Reef as though it were a naturally occurring feature, and therefore entitled to a 12 nautical mile band of territorial water. This is precisely the opposite of what had been announced.

Further obscuring the message, Administration sources are now claiming that it was both a FONOP and “innocent passage,” because the American ship was transiting waters near other islands occupied by various other claimants as well as going near Subi Reef. It would appear that the Administration was more intent on placating domestic concerns (e.g., the Senate Armed Services Committee) than in sending a clear signal.

Now, according to reports, the USS Theodore Roosevelt did not even sail within 200 nautical miles of the Chinese islands, instead avoiding the waters around them entirely. Similarly, the American B-52s underscoring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea took care to never approach more than 15 nautical miles from the artificial Chinese islands.

It is the final step in a pivot of American statements and actions that have charted a steadily retreating course. It has proceeded like this:
◾from Secretary of Defense Carter’s declaration at Shangri-La this May that “the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as U.S. forces do all over the world;”
◾to the revelation to the Senate Armed Services Committee this summer that the United States, in fact, has not sailed or operated near China’s artificial islands for three years;
◾to the apparent concession on international law, five months later, by the Lassen’s “innocent passage” transit, effectively acceding to the Chinese version on the key principle of freedom of the seas;
◾to the apparent decision to have the USS Theodore Roosevelt and American B-52s avoid those waters and airspace altogether, a message that is being sent less than a month after the Lassen

Like it or not, the message that the White House is now repeatedly sending is that the United States, in fact, accepts that the Chinese artificial islands should be treated as national territory, like a natural feature. In short, the United States is acceding to China’s efforts to close off portions of the open ocean. Teddy Roosevelt’s catch-phrase, of course, was “Speak softly, but carry a big stick.” To deliver this craven message via the routing of a ship named for him adds a grotesquely ironic twist to the decision.

No doubt the Obama Administration will claim that it is trying to send a different message. This would be less difficult than the White House’s feckless efforts would make it appear—American aircraft and ships should conduct normal activities within 12 nautical miles of a manmade feature built atop a reef. This could include aircraft fly-overs, helicopter operations, anti-submarine warfare operations, the operation of fire control radars, and loitering in those waters. But, as Yoda observed, “Do, or do not. There is no try.”
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.wsj.com/article_email/ou...n-europe-1448833504-lMyQjAxMTA1NjM2MDczOTA0Wj

Opinion | Commentary

Our Precarious Defenses in Europe

There are fewer American soldiers protecting the Continent than there are New York City cops.

By Robert H. Scales
Nov. 29, 2015 4:45 p.m. ET
146 COMMENTS

For an old Cold Warrior the scene on a bright October afternoon was surreal: America’s Second Cavalry Regiment crossing a Romanian river on a Soviet-built tactical bridge assembled by the Romanian Army, while overhead Vietnam-era MiG 21s carried out mock attacks, with German-made antiaircraft guns manned by Romanian crews simulating the destruction of the intruding MiGs.

The symbolism of the river crossing brought home to me the precarious condition of the U.S. military presence in Europe. American armor crossed on Romanian bridges because the Army has no tactical bridging in Europe. Romanian antiaircraft guns at the crossing sites highlighted the fact that our Army has no mid- and low-level antiaircraft weapons to protect America’s ground forces in Europe.

The Second Cavalry’s lightly armored Stryker vehicles that crossed on Romanian bridges worked well in Afghanistan against the Taliban. But they would turn into burning coffins when confronting Russian tanks. Numbers tell an even more frightening story: At 30,000, there are fewer American soldiers protecting Western Europe, a piece of the planet that produces 46% of global GDP, than there are cops in New York City.

On Oct. 27, the day after the crossing, I attended the annual Conference of European Armies in Wiesbaden, Germany. The event brought together 26 NATO nations and 10 affiliated European nations including Ukraine, Georgia, Romania and Albania. The military chiefs of these “partner” nations universally feared intrusion by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his military. After Russia’s excursions in Georgia and Ukraine, every European military fears further Russian aggression.

Virtually all the nations at the conference are tightly bonded by the shared experience of Afghanistan. Most had sacrificed soldiers to support the American-led conflict. Tiny Georgia contributed two companies that suffered 30 killed and more than 300 wounded. Many of all ranks had served together. The U.S. Army commander in Europe, General Ben Hodges, had fought under both a German and a Danish commander. U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley greeted many NATO and affiliated army leaders whom he had known and served with in Afghanistan. The question heard throughout the conference was: What will Putin do next?

They all agreed that, thanks to two years of enormous sacrifice by the Ukrainian Army, Mr. Putin is not anxious to restart his march through Ukraine to the Black Sea. Russia’s costly military commitment in Ukraine may well be one motive behind Mr. Putin’s dispatch of Russian soldiers and materiel to Syria. The consensus among all present was that Mr. Putin’s most dangerous and perhaps most likely next move will be against the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

From a Russian perspective the geography of the region would make aggression there possible. Russia has the advantage of “interior lines” in the Baltic, meaning that Mr. Putin can move units to threaten the Baltics much faster than the U.S. and NATO can respond. The Russian enclave of Kaliningrad is the most heavily armed oblast, or province, in its erstwhile empire. It contains three Russian armored brigades, a huge naval base, several airfields and is loaded with the same electronic spying and spoofing materiel used against the Ukrainians.

Kaliningrad is a Russian wedge between Poland and Lithuania and is only a 95 kilometer tank ride from the Russian military protectorate of Belarus across the Suwalki Gap. In a single day a Russian column could move from the southern border of Belarus across the extreme southern tip of Lithuania and effectively cut off the Baltics from the rest of NATO. Russia’s antiship missiles and ships berthed in Kaliningrad would very quickly cut all sea communications routes to the Baltic states and in so doing trap the three small American light infantry companies currently training Baltic armies.

What should NATO do to deter such a move? Put heavy-armored American ground units into Eastern Europe within marching distance of the Baltics. Position a heavy-armored brigade in each Baltic state and two in neighboring Poland. All but two of the American brigades might be limited to prepositioned brigade “sets” of materiel in Europe with troops stationed in the U.S.

A quick-reaction force of dedicated Air Force cargo aircraft alerted immediately for the mission could move all these soldiers to Europe in less than a week. These forward-based brigades would be reinforced with supporting units that have proven essential in recent wars, to include heavy artillery and rockets, drones, attack helicopters, intelligence, electronic warfare units and sufficient ammunition and fuel to keep the force in the fight for weeks.

Moving existing materiel to Europe wouldn’t require a single new weapons program or any increase in existing manpower. From what I witnessed first hand I strongly believe that such a force properly positioned would create a deterrent sufficiently intimidating to keep Mr. Putin in his cage for a very long time.

Maj. Gen. Scales retired from active duty in 2000 as commandant of the Army War College.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Conflict News þ@Conflicts 35m35 minutes ago

North Korea tested submarine-launched missile, but launch failed - report http://reut.rs/1MKjr85 - @Reuters


posted for fair use
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...dType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:14am EST

Related: World, North Korea, Aerospace & Defense
North Korea tested submarine-launched missile, but launch failed: report
SEOUL

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks at the KPA's (Korean People's Army) 7th military education convention, which was held on November 3 and 4, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang November 5, 2015.
Reuters/KCNA

North Korea appeared to conduct a submarine-launched ballistic missile test on Saturday but it ended in failure with no indication that the missile successfully ejected from the vessel and took off, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported.

The test, if confirmed, follows a test-launch in May of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), which Pyongyang boasted as a success but has not been independently verified.

"There is no identification of a missile taking flight and only fragments of a safety cover was observed so it's highly likely that the launch was a misfire," a South Korean government source was quoted as saying by Yonhap.

South Korea's Defence Ministry declined to confirm the report citing its policy of not commenting on intelligence matters.

The North's May test launch of an SLBM fueled alarm in South Korea and the United States about the possibility of advances in the military capabilities of a state that is pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

But a high-ranking U.S. military official and private rocket experts questioned the authenticity of photographs released by the North of the May launch saying they were likely modified.

The missile was likely launched from a specially designed submerged barge and not from a submarine and that the North is years away from developing such technology, some experts have said.

But South Korea said it believed the rocket was fired from a submarine and flew about 150 meters out of the water.

North Korea has defied U.N. sanctions for its missile and nuclear tests and is believed to be developing a nuclear device small enough to be mounted on a ballistic missile but it is believed to be some years away from perfecting the technology.

North Korea is technically still at war with the South after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. About 28,500 U.S. troops are based in South Korea in combined defense with the South against the North.

(Reporting by Jack Kim and Ju-min Park; Editing by Dominic Evans)


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North Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Test Fails

North Korea tested its Bukkeukseong-1/KN-11 missile again. This time, the test may actually have been submarine-launched.

By Ankit Panda
November 30, 2015

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Back in May 2015 we witnessed North Korea conduct an ejection test for its KN-11/Bukkeukseong-1 (“Polaris-1”) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). That test, insofar as the ejection itself is concerned, was successful, even though it later emerged that Pyongyang’s video production of the launch was careless in masking that it was actually staged from an underwater barge and not a submarine. On Saturday afternoon, North Korea attempted another KN-11 test-launch which failed.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that the test launch, which was staged from a submarine, took place in the East Sea “failed to soar from the waters,” according to an unidentified South Korean official. The Korea Herald adds that a source noted that “The cover of the capsule where the missile was placed has been found,” presumably by South Korean authorities. The event marks the second SLBM test since the Bukkeukseong-1 back in May. Kim Jong-un himself oversaw that launch and North Korea released widely circulated video footage showcasing the successful ejection.

Even if the test failed this time around, what will be important to ascertain is whether the North Koreans actually attempted an ejection test out of a Sinpo-class submarine this time around. Back in May, reports citing South Korea intelligence officials suggested that the KN-11 had been launched from a submarine, but open-source analysis soon thereafter caught evidence of a submerged barge as the launch platform. (Indeed, hints to this were available even on Google Earth.)

Jeffrey Lewis, on his blog, noted that the barge test was somewhat unsurprising. Indeed, “it would be strange if the North Koreans did not conduct such a test before moving to a full flight test,” he wrote at the time. Saturday’s failed test, if it was indeed an attempt to test the ejection readiness of the Sinpo-class, indicates that North Korea is making steady progress. One failed test doesn’t indicate anything particularly damning about the feasibility of a fully operationalized SLBM system. We may be able to glean additional details on the circumstances of Saturdays tests in the coming days. Peering into North Korea is difficult to begin with and that’s often doubly true for unpublicized, failed military tests.

The KN-11 saw its first flight test in January 2015 and has been of keen interest to North Korea watchers. The primary worry for the United States, China, and certainly South Korea is that North Korea successfully mates a nuclear warhead onto an SLBM, giving it a highly survivable nuclear strike capability. Though its Sinpo-class submarines are not nearly as advanced as most current-generation ballistic missile submarines, a nuclear-armed SLBM would be an important development in the military balance on the Korean peninsula. South Korean President Park Geun-hye described the May test-launch as a “serious challenge” to South Korea’s national security and to overall northeast Asian stability.
 

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Abe Touts the TPP in Battle to Define the Regional Order

China’s push into the South China Sea is behind the growing awareness of the strategic value of the TPP.

By Aurelia George Mulgan
November 30, 2015

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In the wake of the broad agreement on the TPP reached in Atlanta on October 5, strategic competition in the Asia-Pacific has taken on two even more salient dimensions.

The first centers on competing trade models for the region. Japan wants to turn the TPP into the model for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Japan-China-South Korea FTA, while China wants these trade agreements to be modeled on the China-South Korea FTA signed in June this year, not the TPP. During the recent G20 summit meeting in Turkey, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asserted that “The economic order built by the TPP will become the preliminary draft for the regulations for the RCEP etc.’

In the wake of the Atlanta agreement and the recent APEC meeting in Manila, both Xi Jinping and Valdimir Putin have indirectly criticized the TPP as counter to their own plans for the region. China’s position was previously cautious rather than openly negative towards the trade pact, not rejecting it outright. It remains to be seen whether the Chinese authorities will seriously consider membership, with some reports suggesting that China may now be seeing the agreement in a more positive light.

Some Chinese commentators identify the TPP and RCEP as alternative and competing routes to trade liberalization and economic integration in the region. One depicted the TPP as “powerfully promoted by the United States and excluding the two major nations China and India” and RCEP as led by ASEAN and proactively promoted by China. Such comments belie the fact that the TPP is open to Chinese membership, while the RCEP is widely seen as a China-led trade agreement even though it was initiated by the 10 ASEAN members, which invited China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India – to join the negotiations.

Ultimately competition over trade agreements may determine what kind of free trade zone will prove preponderant in the Asia-Pacific as rivalry for the design of the Free Trade Agreement for the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) intensifies. Japan and the United States are explicitly pushing for the TPP to be used as the model or building block for the FTAAP, viewing the recent broad agreement on the TPP as a major step towards realizing the region-wide agreement. In the short term, trends appear to be favoring the TPP over any other FTA model, with the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea either expressing an interest in joining or seriously considering it. Abe was quoted on NHK News on November 20 as saying that “the new economic order [in the Asia Pacific] that will be established based on the TPP will become the springboard for rule formation in the FTAAP and reiterated that he would like to promote regional economic integration proactively with the TPP as the basis.”

In these developments, he is playing a dual leadership role with U.S. President Barack Obama in promoting the TPP around the region, causing at least one Chinese critic to ask the question: “Does Japan want to have a fall out with China in order to pander to the TPP led by the United States?” The reality is, however, that Japan is a leading power in the TPP, with Abe pursuing Japan’s own regional trade interests in promoting it as potentially a region-wide agreement.

The second dimension of strategic competition that is emerging centers on the growing importance of the TPP in terms of its geopolitical and security spin-offs. This aspect of the TPP has become much clearer in the wake of the Atlanta agreement and the recent round of summitry in Manila and Kuala Lumpur.

Obama’s overtures to non-TPP member South East Asian countries to join the pact reflects keen awareness of the TPP’s strategic value in supporting U.S. leadership in the region. He is urging more ASEAN countries to join the pact, delivering a message that the trade agreement would generate not only trade and economic benefits for member nations but also “important strategic and geopolitical benefits.”

Abe has also spoken about both the economic and strategic advantages of TPP membership at the recent meetings in Southeast Asia and expressed a keen interest in expanding participation amongst regional countries and focusing on expanding the pact.

Even before the East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur Abe had drawn attention to the importance of widening TPP membership as being extremely important to Japan’s security. He elaborated on this idea at the summit of TPP country leaders meeting on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Manila, saying “deepening economic interdependence and expanding the circle of such ties will contribute to the stability of the Asia-Pacific region.” A Japanese diplomatic source explained: “Even if security problems arise amongst participating countries, they will emphasize economics and aim [to resolve issues] through peaceful processes.”

China’s push into the South China Sea is behind the growing awareness of the strategic value of the TPP and underpinning its strategic importance well beyond its significance as a trade and economic pact. Three participating countries (Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam) have rival claims to islands and the Philippines, which is most concerned about the Chinese advance into the South China Sea, has expressed the strongest interest in joining the TPP. Member countries also share a common interest in stable sea lanes, which are indispensable for trade, so there will be incentive to coordinate in shaping regional public opinion on the issue as a possible deterrent to China.

At the same time, membership is also widely seen by both participants and non-participants as supporting U.S.-led order in the region.

Aurelia George Mulgan is professor of Japanese Politics, University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra, Australia. Author of six books on Japanese politics (the latest “Ozawa Ichiro and Japanese Politics: Old Versus New,” Nissan/Routledge 2014).
 

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Chinese president to head to Africa

Nov 30, 10:12 AM (ET)
By FARAI MUTSAKA

(AP) U.S. President Barack Obama, left, meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping during...
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HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — Some immigration signs at Zimbabwe's main international airport are in Chinese, a sign of China's deep economic inroads in Africa, which Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit this week.

Xi arrives Tuesday in Zimbabwe before heading on Wednesday to South Africa. There, he will attend a forum on cooperation between Africa and China, whose investment on the continent has soared in the past decade. Zimbabwe, whose economy is faltering, would like to get a bigger piece of it.

China's overall trade with Africa topped $200 billion last year but has slowed over the past two years as the weakening Chinese economy demands fewer of the continent's oil, copper and other raw materials.

Chinese-built roads, bridges and power installations are found across Africa, often paid for in resources or through loans from China that must eventually be repaid.

(AP) French President Francois Hollande, left, greets China's President Xi Jinping as he...
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Along with those looming debts, some African nations have expressed anger over Chinese companies' use of Chinese workers and other practices that fail to benefit local economies.

Inexpensive Chinese goods have long been popular in Africa, and in the last decade Chinese merchants have started eliminating the middle man and setting up retail outlets of their own, much to local merchants' chagrin. In 2011, riots in the Ugandan capital of Kampala largely targeted the city's foreign merchants.

There are about a million Chinese living in Africa, mostly engaged in commercial work, according to the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce in Africa.

Xi's visit to Zimbabwe is his first and he'll meet President Robert Mugabe, who has been quoted by Zimbabwean state media as saying they will discuss "some of the projects and programs we want China to assist us in undertaking."

Despite the collaboration, Mugabe has expressed concern in the past, telling the Chinese in 2012 to respect Zimbabwe's investment and labor laws.

"To our Chinese friends we say, 'You don't just come, you have to respect our rules," the Zimbabwean leader said at a gathering of the ruling party.

China pumped $600 million into Zimbabwe in 2013, making it the biggest foreign investor with interests ranging from gold, diamond and platinum mining to tobacco, nickel, chrome, construction, energy and telecommunications, said Chinese ambassador Huang Ping.

Zimbabwe's economy is battered by mass company closures, high unemployment, low liquidity and foreign direct investment and food shortages. The government has been struggling to raise money to pay its workers, often shifting pay dates. Over two-thirds of Zimbabweans survive on informal trade, according to the African Development Bank.

Xi travels to South Africa where he will be from Wednesday through Saturday on his second state visit to that country. In addition to attending the China and Africa forum security will also be on his agenda. Three Chinese were among 20 people killed in an Islamic extremist assault on a hotel in Mali last week.

China has said it is holding discussions with Djibouti on setting up a naval logistics center in the Horn of Africa nation to service Chinese anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden and other regional missions. It hopes the center could ease difficulties in refueling and replenishing Chinese navy ships and provide recreation for officers and sailors.

Like India, China has looked to African states to bolster its profile. South Africa has been especially supportive on the political front, twice barring entry to the Dalai Lama, a Nobel Peace Prize winner who is derided by Beijing as an advocate for Tibetan independence from Chinese rule.

---

Associated Press writer Christopher Bodeen contributed to this report from Beijing.

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The Port of Bagamoyo: A Test for China’s New Maritime Silk Road in Africa

A port project in Tanzania could become a model for connecting east Africa to China’s Silk Road.

By Frannie A. Léautier, Michael Schaefer, and Wei Shen
December 01, 2015

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The following text reflects the discussions at the 5th BMW Foundation Global Table on the opportunities that China’s New Maritime Silk Road initiative holds for East Africa. The ideas on testing the inclusiveness of the One Belt, One Road initiative build on the 4th BMW Foundation Global Table in Poland, which focused on the Silk Road Economic Belt connecting China, Central Asia, and Europe.

Following the Tanzanian general election of 2015, President Jakaya Kikwete will hand over power to John Magufuli after serving two terms in high office. One of the most important legacies of his presidency could turn out to be laying the foundation stone for the construction of the Bagamoyo port, which also happens to be his hometown, located 60 kilometers up the coast from Dar es Salaam. Funded by China Merchants Holdings International and Oman’s State Government Reserve Fund, the project presents an opportunity to test the potential of China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road as game changer for Africa’s development. Will the New Silk Road succeed in aligning the “Chinese Dream” with an African one? The answer will largely depend on China’s ability to create a truly inclusive process, allowing all participating states, together with landlocked and geographically disadvantaged corridor countries, to bring in their respective interests. Africa and Europe should give China the benefit of the doubt and become active co-drivers of the process.

At a time when China combines the world’s second largest economic power with growing military capability, the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative is being portrayed by the Chinese leadership as an illustration affirming the country’s peaceful rise and its readiness to shoulder greater regional and global responsibility.

The New Maritime Silk Road reflects a strategic vision of a zone of economic development that maps along the key ports and maritime trade routes of the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. Africa is a strategic center point in this framework. Projects to be undertaken under the “Belt and Road” framework in Africa are located in Bizerte, Tunisia; Dakar, Senegal; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Djibouti, Djibouti; Libreville, Gabon; Maputo, Mozambique; and Tema, Ghana.

The Tanzania Port Authority recently announced its approval for a $10 billion project to develop a port at Bagamoyo, financed by China and Oman. Located about 60 kilometers north of Dar es Salaam, Bagamoyo is expected to become the biggest port in Africa once completed, handling 20 times more cargo than Dar es Salaam port. The project will link Bagamoyo port to the central corridor railway and the TAZARA Railway through an extended link. A parallel highway linking Bagamoyo to the Uhuru Highway going to Zambia will also be built. An integral part of the Bagamoyo project will be an Export Development Zone (EDZ) which will include the construction of an industrial city as well as upgrades to road and railway infrastructure. Bagamoyo will be a strategic pillar and connect the MSR with other East African countries, including Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan, Comoros, Madagascar, and Seychelles.

The Bagamoyo port provides opportunities to shape the approach taken to developing the other nodes in the Maritime Silk Road and for China to work with its development partners in Africa and Europe.

First, given Bagamoyo’s historical link to Germany, and Europe’s knowledge of and past experiences with African nations, China should also be open to policy coordination and development cooperation with the European Union and other relevant stakeholders, which could also potentially eradicate the increasing neocolonial speculation in the West over China’s “exploitative engagement” in Africa. The question remains also whether China’s ongoing and extensive crackdown on government corruption proposed by President Xi Jinping could be finally aligned with the EU’s longstanding efforts to overcome widespread corruption and poor governance in Africa.

Brian Eyler’s 2014 report on the partnership that China and Thailand have established to “construct investment vehicles for the development of 12 strategic ports” – including seven African ports (in Djibouti, Tanzania, Mozambique, Gabon, Ghana, Senegal, and Tunisia) offers a possible cooperation framework for other nations to be involved in both MSR and the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB). During President Xi Jinping’s visit to Africa in 2013, he proposed the four principles of “sincerity, real results, affinity and good faith” as a blueprint for bilateral relations. Premier Li Keqiang, highlighting the unity of the “Chinese Dream” and the “African Dream,” said that the MSR was the best testing ground for China’s promise and commitment to Africa. In order for the MSR to be as inclusive as it claims to be and for it to produce win-win results, China will need to be open-minded, innovative, more flexible, and prepared to move beyond its foreign-policy comfort zone.

Second, Bagamoyo and other construction sites on the MSR in Africa and Asia are located in natural habitats. In the case of Bagamoyo, the future port is surrounded with endangered mangrove swamps, local fishing activities, and smallholder agriculture. These activities are highly sensitive to weather and the elements. It is important to ensure that sustainability principles are followed during the design, construction, and operation phases of the projects. The agreement on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2015 is a great opportunity to ensure that the planned port and industrial city follow the best possible sustainability principles.

Third, Bagamoyo is a historic city with important landmarks for tourism, located close to Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar. It was founded at end of the 18th century and was the original capital of German East Africa. It used to be one of the most important trading posts along the East African coast. Despite such important landmarks and cultural activities, Bagamoyo is a poor area, depending on smallholder farming, small traders, tidal fishing, and jobs in government administration. The town has an adequate water supply, but a shortage of sewerage and electricity. A town of some 30,000 people, the city is expected to grow tremendously with this new port and industrial park investment. It is important to preserve the history and architectural landmarks, which are of importance to tourism and the livelihood of many local residents. Coordination with the Department of Antiquities in Tanzania is critical at all stages of the design, construction, and operation of the port and industrial city. This would be a great opportunity for Bagamoyo to engage in green design and construct a truly sustainable city that preserves the past, protects the activities and livelihood of the present inhabitants, and prepares for a brighter future. This includes energy, water use, construction techniques, materials used, traffic management and urban planning, to name just a few areas.

Fourth, Bagamoyo is a microcosm of Tanzania’s modern path to development, as its residents are more diverse than in other parts of the country. The city accumulated such diversity over the years due to its role in trade, fine sailing culture, sufficient water supply, fertile hinterland, and closeness to the rice-producing region along the Ruvu River. Maintaining a peaceful multicultural society despite a tremendous growth in population due to in-migration to serve the Export Development Zone, the port, and the growing city is paramount. As modern cities in Tanzania are becoming as diverse as Bagamoyo as a result of the in-migration of different ethnic groups in search of jobs, efforts undertaken to ensure a harmonious society in Bagamoyo could be scalable across Tanzania.

Finally, Bagamoyo will go from a sleepy “dottoir” for Dar es Salaam to a major port with a Pan-African and global role along the Maritime Silk Road. Planning and managing such a city is light-years away from the manner in which the city is currently planned and managed. Attention will have to be paid to building the capabilities and competences as well as the systems and processes for the city to be able to play this important role. Time is of essence as port construction is supposed to be completed by 2017.

Nevertheless, careful coordination will be needed to reduce misunderstandings and internal rivalry in Africa. Creating the necessary degree of transparency and trust will be also essential for long-term engagement with China in the framework of the Maritime Silk Road. Therefore, to ensure effective coordination, it would be important to establish a multi-national coordinating body including stakeholders from all participating countries. This coordinating body would have the task of overseeing cross-border projects on the basis of a level playing field, taking the legitimate interests of all stakeholders on board.

Negotiating with one voice would also improve the bargaining position of African states vis-à-vis China. This is of particular importance when it comes to standard-setting or defining the conditions for extractive activities of foreign mining companies as well as also for large-scale construction projects. Coordination among each other and securing transparency regarding the various national interests will also allow African leaders to identify areas of convergence, strengthen regional integration, and adopt a multi-vector diplomacy approach. This will provide African countries with the necessary political leverage to negotiate with Europe and China as well as other powers.

Furthermore, African leaders should also explore the potential of existing exchange formats and institutions such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which will hold its 6th Ministerial Conference on December 4-5 in Johannesburg. With the theme for the upcoming summit being “Africa-China Progressing Together: Win-Win Cooperation for Common Development,” it only makes sense for all African states including the transit countries to sit down and discuss beforehand their strategy and lay out their expectations toward the partnership with China.

Last but not least, a successful approach to the Maritime Silk Road would allow Africa to achieve the optimistic vision in the “Africa Rising” narrative through its key port cities and their interconnected road, rail, and power links. Then Bagamoyo would eventually resemble the town described in the Old Swahili caravan song:


Be happy, my soul, let go all worries
Soon the place of your yearnings is reached
The town of palms – Bagamoyo

Frannie A. Léautier is Chairperson and Co-Founding Partner of Mkoba Private Equity. Michael Schaefer, a former German ambassador to China, is the Chairman of the Board of the BMW Foundation. Wei Shen is Director of the Lancaster University Confucius Institute and Professor of International Business at Lancaster University Management School.
 

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Iraqi army warns of imminent assault on IS-held Ramadi

30 November 2015
From the section Middle East

The Iraqi army has urged people living in the centre of the Islamic State-held city of Ramadi to leave before an operation to retake it is launched.

A security source told the BBC leaflets had been dropped by planes, warning residents the army planned to storm the city within the next 24 hours.

The call, which was also broadcast on state television, told them to use an exit secured by the army to the south.

Ramadi was captured by IS in May in an embarrassing defeat for the Iraqi army.

Last month, the US military said Iraqi troops and pro-government militiamen had essentially encircled the city, located about 90km (55 miles) to the west of Baghdad, and that conditions were set for a final assault.

'Last warning'

On Monday, a security source told the BBC that the leaflets dropped over Ramadi had urged civilians living in the city centre to leave because government forces were preparing to storm the city from the south, the west and the north.

They were advised to head to the south-eastern Humayra district, where an exit had been secured, the source said.

"This is the last warning by the security forces to the people inside Ramadi," the source added. "The security forces will storm the city, whether residents are inside it or not."

However, a spokesperson for Ramadi residents called on the government to postpone the offensive.

The spokesperson said thousands of families were being held by IS militants, who had set up checkpoints and threatened to kill anyone who attempted to leave.

The US military believes there are between 600 and 1,000 IS militants in Ramadi.

It says they have developed a strong defensive system in and around the city, including using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to create minefields.

Earlier this month, Iraqi Kurdish forces backed by US-led coalition air strikes recaptured the north-western town of Sinjar from IS in a major operation.
 

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World | Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:03pm EST
Related: World, Afghanistan

U.S. Embassy warns of imminent attack in Kabul

WASHINGTON


The U.S. Embassy in Kabul warned on Monday of an imminent attack in the Afghan capital, saying it had received credible reports of a threat within the next two days, although it had no other details.

State Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau told reporters the threat was not made specifically against the U.S. Embassy, U.S citizens or any American interests in Kabul.

"U.S. Embassy Kabul has received credible reports of an imminent attack in Kabul city, Kabul province, Afghanistan within the next 48 hours," the embassy said in a post on its website.

"During this period of heightened threat, the U.S. Embassy strongly urges U.S. citizens to exercise extreme caution if moving around the city. There were no further details regarding the targets, timing, or method of the planned attack," it said.


(Reporting by Washington newsroom; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe and Peter Cooney)
 

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Putin, Obama discuss Syria political settlement

Nov 30, 4:22 PM (ET)
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

(AP) Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and U.S. President Barack Obama, rear,...
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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he and President Barack Obama have a shared understanding on how to move toward a political settlement in Syria, but added that incidents like the recent downing of a Russian warplane by a Turkish fighter jet stymie broader cooperation against extremism.

Putin and Obama had a half-hour meeting on the sidelines of a climate summit near Paris, and the Russian leader told reporters they discussed efforts to compile a list of extremist groups and another one of members of legitimate political opposition.

Putin said ½201c}we have an understanding how we should proceed if we talk about a political settlement. We need to work on a new (Syrian) constitution, new elections and the control over their outcome.½201d}

At the same time, he said, disputes such as last Tuesday½2019}s shooting down of a Russian warplane imperil cooperation on defeating extremists and resolving Syria½2019}s turmoil.

(AP) Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and U.S. President Barack Obama shake hands...
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Turkey said it downed the plane after it intruded its airspace for 17 seconds despite repeated warnings, while Russia insisted that the plane had remained in Syria½2019}s airspace and denounced Ankara½2019}s move as a ½201c}treacherous stab in the back.½201d}

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed regret over the incident, but Putin has made it clear that Russia wants a formal apology, something Turkey has refused to do.

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau said the United States has corroborated that the Russian plane violated Turkish airspace, based on evidence from Turkey and from ½201c}our own sources.½201d}

Russia on Monday imposed sanctions including a ban on Turkish food exports.

Putin said he was ½201c}very sorry½201d} to see the break-down of long-cultivated links with Turkey, but added that problems in bilateral ties have started building up long ago as Turkey has refused to hand over Russian suspects accused of terrorism.

He also accused Turkey of downing the Russian warplane in order to protect what he described as massive illegal imports of Islamic State-produced oil, saying that Ankara½2019}s claim that it was worried about Russian blows on the territory populated by a Turkish ethnic group in Syria was ½201c}just a pretext.½201d}

½201c}We have every reason to believe that a decision to shoot down our plane was prompted by a desire to ensure security of that oil to the territory of Turkey and on to sea ports for loading into tankers,½201d} he said.

Putin had presented fellow leaders at the Group of 20 summit hosted by Turkey in Antalya earlier this month with aerial pictures of what he described as convoys of oil trucks carrying oil from IS-controlled oilfields in Syria to the Turkish territory.

While Erdogan has denied the Russian accusations, Putin insisted that the illegal oil trade has acquired a massive scale.

½201c}We have received additional information confirming that oil from IS-controlled deposits flows into Turkey on an industrial scale,½201d} he said.

½201c}Our pilots write on their bombs: ½201c}For ours!½201d} and ½201c}For Paris!½201d} Putin said. ½201c}And the Turkish air force shoots down our bomber! What kind of broad coalition can we talk about then?½201d}

Still, he added that Russia would continue its efforts to help form a wider coalition against extremism.

½201c}We will strive for helping form a working broad coalition and regional and financial interests fall behind a global terror threat,½201d} he said, adding that it½2019}s impossible to unite global efforts against the IS as long as ½201c}some use terrorist organizations to achieve momentary political goals and fail to observe the U.N. Security Council resolutions banning the sales of illegally produced oil.½201d}
 

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Iran denies links to 2 alleged operatives arrested in Kenya

Nov 30, 2:41 PM (ET)

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran has denied any links to two detained Kenyans accused of spying and plotting attacks on Western targets in Nairobi.

A Foreign Ministry statement carried by the official IRNA news service says the two Kenyan nationals have no links to Iran's intelligence or security apparatus. It says publicizing the case was "hasty and non-constructive."

The statement says Iran values relations with Kenya and wants to cooperate in clarifying the case.

Kenyan police said Saturday that Abubakar Sadiq Louw, 69, and Yassin Sambai Juma, 25, confessed to being spies for the Quds Force, an elite and secretive unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

The police said the two made several trips to Iran and were given money by their handlers to case targets for attacks and to recruit others.
 

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War of words over South China Sea militarization heats up

By Bill Gertz on November 30, 2015 in Asia Times News & Features, Bill Gertz, China, Southeast Asia, The China Challenge

Days after US President Barack Obama urged China to halt the militarization of newly-created islands in the South China Sea, China continues military deployments, exercises and construction in the disputed waterway.

During a summit meeting with Pacific Rim leaders in Manila Nov. 18, Obama called on China to halt its militarization of disputed islands in the South China Sea. “We agree on the need for bold steps to lower tensions, including pledging to halt further reclamation, new construction and militarization of disputed areas in the South China Sea,” he said.

The warning was ignored in Beijing. On Nov. 24, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Li was asked if China will end island construction and stated unequivocally that it will not.

Further, Li asserted that defense facilities will continue to be built but denied the effort represented militarization. China completed land reclamation in the Spratlys, which China calls the Nansha Islands, in June, Li said, but then told reporters “some civilian facilities” are being built, including two lighthouses to assist shipping traffic.

The Chinese spokesman then made clear that militarization is also continuing. “We will also build necessary defense facilities on some islands and reefs,” Li said. “The relevant construction will be moderate, which has nothing to do with militarization, targets no countries, and [does] not obstruct various countries’ enjoyment of freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea in accordance with international law.”

Three days earlier Adm. Harry Harris bluntly called China’s actions in the sea “provocative” and made clear the United States would remain a leader in resisting Chinese hegemony over the waterway that he said facilitates the annual transfer of $5.3 trillion in international trade.

“Let me be clear, we will not give China or any other nation a free pass to fray the rules-based security architecture that has benefited all of us, including China,” Harris said during a foreign policy forum in Canada.

Calling China’s maritime views on the sea “exclusionary and absolutist,” Harris said China appears to be rejecting the policies of the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping who urged patience in dealing with China’s territorial disputes.

Recent actions by Beijing “appear to be walking away” from the Deng’s patient approach to using mutually beneficial solutions, Harris said.

China, Harris said, is shifting from patient state into “a nation in a hurry” through the massive island building spree that began last year in disputed waters of the South China Sea. The activities significantly heightened tensions in the region, he said.

The Chinese have started “building runways and support facilities to support possible militarization of an area vital to the global economy,” the four-star admiral said.

Chinese military units are now warning ships and planes legally operating in the sea that they are not permitted to enter China’s claimed security zone, a zone Harris said “does not exist.”

Harris also said Chinese military leaders have issued veiled threats against other claimants to the sea. He also praised the international tribunal that supported Philippines’ claims to the Spratlys and said China’s reaction is being closely watched.

The four-star admiral made clear the United States would not be coerced or intimidated by China and will continued to fly, sail and operate in the sea. “The South China Sea is not and will not be an exception,” he stated, promising further warship transits like last month’s passage of the guided missile destroyer USS Lassen.

Pentagon officials said privately that the next US Navy transit likely would take place by two warships near Mischief Reef in the Spratlys some time before the end of the year. That island is one of three locations where China is building an airstrip that US defense officials say likely will be used for military operations that could control access to the region.

“These [freedom of navigation] operations serve to protect the rights, and freedoms and lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all nations under international law, including China,” Harris said.

Harris said a war with China is not inevitable but warned of the growing danger of a conflict. “Access to shared thoroughfares is at risk due to increasing competition and unfortunately the provocative actions by nations like China,” he said.

Meanwhile, China has been busy bolstering its defenses in the region and signaling that it will take steps to challenge US forces in the region.

In response to Harris, People’s Liberation Army Navy Capt. Zhang Junshe told state-run Global Times that another warship passage by the United States would be a “serious provocation” of Chinese sovereignty and security.

“Chinese armed forces would undoubtedly respond by dispatching matching forces” to the disputed islands, Zhang said, adding that the US warship passages “violates international law.”

A further indication of Chinese militarization was the announcement Nov. 24 that the PLA commissioned its largest supply ship that will be home ported at Sansha City, an island outpost set up in 2012 that is the hub for Chinese maritime claims. The ship can support helicopters and can move heavy equipment. It is the first time a large supply ship has been deployed to the sea.

Earlier in the month, Chinese naval forces conducted war games in the sea that simulated long-distance assaults and landing operations.

Other war games included live fire drills by surface ships simulating attacks on submarines in the sea.

The heated rhetoric from both China and the United States is a sign that tensions remain high, and that the risk of a military miscalculation leading to a shoot out or other military action is increasing.

Bill Gertz is a journalist and author who has spent decades covering defense and national security affairs. He is the author of six national security books. Contact him on Twitter at @BillGertz

Copyright 2015 Asia Times Holdings Limited
 

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Posted: Dec 02, 2015 5:12 AM PST
Updated: Dec 02, 2015 5:41 AM PST

Police in Italy, Kosovo detain 4 men in terror plot

MILAN (AP) - Police in Italy and Kosovo detained four Kosovars with Islamic State contacts Tuesday for making threats against the pope and a U.S. diplomat. Authorities said the men were armed and prepared to act.

Kosovo police arrested an ethnic Albanian south of the capital, Pristina, who authorities say was the group's leader, seizing a pistol and a rifle as well as electronic equipment. Three other men were detained in Italy as police conducted searches in four cities; one was being held while two were being expelled under anti-terrorism measures.

Italy's top security official, Interior Minister Angelino Alfano, said the expulsions were being carried out in cases where the evidence wasn't deemed strong enough to seek prosecution.

The four are suspected of being terrorism apologists and instigating racial hatred. The ethnic Albanian arrested in Kosovo was also suspected of trying to recruit fighters to go to Syria and Iraq and promoting "terrorist" activities on social media.

"We intervened during a period of propaganda and criminal apology before it could become a problem," said Giovanni De Stavola, the head of the counter-terrorism office in the northern city of Brescia, which helped conduct the investigation. "The weapons found in Kosovo demonstrate that they could have acted."

Italian authorities also carried out searches in the northern cities of Vicenza and Padua and the central town of Perugia.

Authorities said the suspects had posted on their Facebook pages images of themselves with weapons and "in circumstances characteristic of Islamic State fighters." All four often visited a jihadist Facebook group whose members are known to be in Syria, where a few hundred Kosovo-born volunteers have joined the Islamic State group.

Police said the men's posts also included threats against the pope and a former U.S. ambassador to Kosovo, as well as celebrating the Paris attacks, saying "this is only the beginning."

Chief prosecutor Tommaso Buonanno said the most alarming messages were aimed at the pope, stating, "Remember there won't be any pope after this one. This is the last. Don't forget what I am telling you."

Copyright 2015 The Associated Press.
 

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12/1/2015

U.S. Army Europe to Request Aviation Reinforcements

By Sandra I. Erwin

The downsizing of Army aviation in Europe has gone too far, said a senior commander. As a result of an Army-wide restructuring of aviation units, the brigade that supports the European theater has seen its ranks shrink from seven down to just two battalions.

“This has created an aviation deficit in Europe,” said Col. Christopher W. Waters, commander of the 12th Combat Aviation Brigade, based in Germany.

The Army has sought to make up for reductions in European-based forces by sending U.S.-based units there for nine-month rotations. But the size of current rotational forces in Europe today is not enough to keep up with growing demands for NATO training and deployments across a large continent of 51 countries, Waters said Dec. 1 during a meeting with reporters.

In the coming weeks, U.S. Army Europe will be requesting additional forces beyond the currently planned rotations, Waters said.

The 12th brigade is a skeleton of its former self. It used to have 48 Apache attack helicopters and now has 24. It lost its organic fleet of 60 Black Hawk helicopters. Its fleet of 12 Chinook heavy lift choppers was reduced to eight. The fleet of 20 Black Hawks assigned to transport VIPs is down to 10. And it went from 30 medevac helicopters to six.

The cutbacks are the result of the so-called “aviation restructuring initiative” that was launched in the summer of 2013 in response to funding caps set by the Budget Control Act of 2011.

The secretary of the Army and the chief of staff approved the ARI in October 2013. The Pentagon included the reductions in its fiscal year 2015 budget. U.S. Army Europe started shedding force structure in the spring.

The restructuring was ill-timed because it coincided with the start of Russia’s aggressive incursions into Ukraine, followed by the escalation of the war in Syria and the refugee crisis that has rattled Europe, Waters said. “The Army had to make decisions to restructure, but the environment changed during the same period.”

Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley has suggested that he may reconsider some of the actions set forth in the ARI, and the plan is now under review by a congressionally mandated “national commission on the future of the Army.” The panel was created in response to National Guard objections to the removal of aircraft from the Guard to backfill active-duty units.

The cutbacks in the 12th Combat Aviation Brigade, however, are a done deal, Waters said. “The preponderance of ARI has taken effect. I don’t expect to get force structure back in the near future.”

The 12th brigade was once the largest aviation brigade in the Army, with seven operational battalions. Since spring, three have been deactivated and two others relocated back to the United States. The brigade’s permanent European footprint has been reduced to a headquarters, one attack battalion and one theater general support aviation battalion. All other assets are now deployed from the United States. The 12th brigade has about 1,000 soldiers and is supplemented by 350 rotational troops.

Aviation cutbacks are just one piece of the broader downsizing of the U.S. military in Europe that began in the 1990s. At the height of the Cold War, the United States had almost 300,000 soldiers based in Europe. The size of the current force there is about 27,000.

A “request for forces” will seek additional rotational reinforcements to beef up three aviation battalions next year, Waters said. “As a commander I would like to have organic capability, but frankly, I need capability and I don’t care where it comes from. If the Army solves the challenge with rotational forces, that is absolutely fine with me.”

A general support aviation battalion and an attack battalion that are still in Germany are scheduled to be reassigned to the 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade based in Savannah, Georgia, by summer 2016. Waters said there is a chance that the move may be delayed because of the heightened security crisis in Europe.

The amount of rotational forces now is less than what is needed to conduct training exercises, especially battalion-level collective training, Waters said. “We are strained,” he said. “The numbers of missions we’re supporting and the geographical dispersion make it difficult to build readiness.”

Waters said he has asked for additional National Guard and Reserve support, too. And he is seeking greater contributions from NATO allies. The most urgent needs are logistics support and communications, said Waters. “The biggest deficiency we have in the 12th CAB is the ability to sustain ourselves. We lost that when we deactivated our support battalion.”

In recent months, the brigade has had to pare back its commitments, Waters said. “We’re not supporting the volume and capacity we were before. … We cannot build readiness organically. Most missions ask for companies of aircraft, so we put platoons. When they ask for platoons we put teams, and when they ask for teams we put a single ship.”
 

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Budget Matters

New Afghanistan Troop Plan to Cost Billions

December 2015
By Jon Harper

President Barack Obama’s decision to delay troop withdrawals from Afghanistan could cost $10 billion or more annually, analysts said.

The commander-in-chief recently announced that about 10,000 U.S. troops would remain in the country until late 2016, and 5,500 would still be in Afghanistan when he leaves office in 2017. The previous plan called for drawing down to a mere embassy presence by the end of 2016.

Independent defense budget experts estimated that the additional forces and support efforts would come with a big price tag.

“They will probably need at least $10 billion more this [fiscal] year for the number change,” said Mackenzie Eaglen, a defense analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. For fiscal year 2017, the Pentagon will need “at least” $20 billion. Her estimates were based on per capita cost trends for keeping service members in Afghanistan, as well as the cost of the overall war effort.

Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence at the Brookings Institution, said $10 billion to $15 billion a year would likely be needed to bankroll the higher force levels.

Both O’Hanlon and Eaglen expect the money for Afghanistan operations to be allocated as part of overseas contingency operations (OCO) funding.

“It will be additional to other defense spending, not taking from” other Pentagon programs, O’Hanlon said in an email.

The Obama administration and Congress recently reached an agreement to spend about $59 billion annually on military OCO in fiscal years 2016 and 2017.

Beyond 2017, the troop level will likely remain at 5,500 or higher, Eaglen said.

“I do think it’s the floor until there is a significantly more stable Afghan National Security Forces” and the threat from insurgents declines, she said. “Only then can the U.S. consider revising” the military footprint.

Experts anticipate sufficient political backing on Capitol Hill for funding the more robust troop presence.

“It should have a fair amount of broad support, though I would expect some critiquing here and there,” O’Hanlon said.
 

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Montenegro prime minister says NATO invitation historic day

Dec 2, 8:01 AM (ET)
By PREDRAG MILIC

(AP) U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, meets Montenegro's Foreign Minister Igor...
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PODGORICA, Montenegro (AP) — NATO's membership invitation to Montenegro represents a historic day for the tiny Adriatic state, the most important since the 2006 independence referendum, the prime minister said Wednesday.

NATO member states on Wednesday formally invited Montenegro to join the alliance in the face of Russian opposition.

"Montenegro is entering the exclusive circle of states which are synonymous with the highest values of modern civilization," Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic said. "This is a crown jewel of the long-standing national efforts and comprehensive reform processes launched in 2006."

Russia, which has traditionally strong religious, cultural and historic influence in the Balkans, has been opposed to Montenegro's membership bid, fueling anti-NATO sentiments among many Montenegrins. Several protests by thousands of people in the capital, Podgorica, against the pro-NATO government have turned violent recently.

Montenegro, with a population of just over 600,000, split from much bigger Serbia in 2006. The current Serbian right-wing government has said it has no intention of joining NATO, although it maintains close relations with the alliance and wants to become a European Union member.

"Inviting Montenegro is a big day for the Western Balkans as well," Djukanovic said. "I believe this will be the wind in the sails for reform and integration processes in the neighborhood. Our country's membership in NATO will strongly contribute to regional stability and security."
 
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