WAR 11-26-2016-to-12-02-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Sorry folks the Meat World's been all over me the last couple of days and last night I just wanted to music hunt for the Baron....HC

(243) 11-05-2016-to-11-11-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...11-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(244) 11-12-2016-to-11-18-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...18-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(245) 11-19-2016-to-11-25-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...25-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...ic-over-refugees-EU-membership/8561480202571/

Erdogan, EU escalate angry rhetoric over refugees, EU membership

By Eric DuVall | Updated Nov. 26, 2016 at 6:31 PM

ANKARA, Turkey, Nov. 26 (UPI) -- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan escalated a brewing war of words with the European Union on Saturday amid fresh warnings from a leading European official not to renege on a deal to house more than 3 million Syrian immigrants.

The two sides have clashed of late over the fate of negotiations for Turkey to enter the European Union. In the months since a coup attempt in July failed to topple Erdogan, the conservative Muslim leader has moved to crack down on perceived military and civilian government workers loyal to the coup's alleged leader Fetullah Gulen.

After arresting thousands of alleged conspirators in the military and the government in the coup's aftermath, European leaders warned the authoritarian tactics could cost Turkey its bid for EU membership, a potential major economic windfall. On Thursday, the EU Parliament voted to freeze accession talks, though the vote was mostly symbolic and major EU nations such as Germany and France favor continuing the process.

On Friday, Erdogan threatened to throw open the Turkish border with Bulgaria -- and thus the rest of Europe -- to the 3 million-plus Syrian refugees being housed in camps in Turkey if the EU halted the accession process. On Saturday, Erdogan unleashed another angry tirade on television, suggesting his government could extend a state of emergency that has been in place since the coup failed.

"Maybe the state of emergency will be extended by three months and then maybe another three months," he said, according to Al Jazeera. "This is a decision for the government and the [Turkish] parliament."

"What's it to you?" he said, addressing the European Parliament. "Know your place."

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker offered a mixed response, telling Euronews on Friday that EU member-states should "refrain from giving lessons" to Turkey on the refugee crisis because the Turks are bearing a much more significant part of the burden than Europe.

"Turkey does much more than Europe, as do Jordan and Lebanon. So, we need to be humble when we speak on those issues," Juncker said.

However, Juncker also cautioned in a Belgian newspaper Saturday that Turkey must abide by the terms of the migrant deal with Europe and stop the authoritarian treatment of its citizens, or own the potential consequence -- including failure to gain EU membership.

"We made an agreement, it must be respected and it will be," Juncker said. "I believe that Erdogan and his government are in the process of 'pre-blaming' Europe for the failure of its accession negotiations."

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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/26/south-sudan-accepts-un-peacekeepers-with-no-conditions.html

MIDDLE EAST

South Sudan accepts UN peacekeepers with no conditions

Published November 26, 2016
Associated Press

JUBA, South Sudan – A top South Sudan official says the government has accepted to have with "no conditions" an increased peacekeeping force as mandated by the U.N. Security Council in August.

Minister of Cabinet Affairs Martin Lomuro told the Associated Press on Saturday that South Sudan's Cabinet unanimously decided to agree to the enlarged peacekeeping force.

The agreement ends a three-month limbo over whether the peacekeeping force could be increased and eliminates a potential showdown with the U.N. Security Council. South Sudan already has 12,000 U.N. peacekeepers.

The additional peacekeepers were ordered by the U.N. Security Council after fighting killed hundreds of people in the capital, Juba, in July, and set off fighting across the country.

President Salva Kiir's government had objected to the additional peacekeepers.
 

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http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/11/china-successfully-fires-radical-300.html

November 25, 2016

China successfully fires radical 300+ mile range hypersonic missile that would put key parts of US air operations at risk

In November 2016, a Chinese J-16 strike fighter test-fired a larger and longer range hypersonic missile and successfully destroying the target drone at a very long range.

The missile is about 28 percent of the length of the J-16, which measures 22 meters (about 72 feet). The puts the missile at about 19 feet, and roughly 13 inches in diameter. The missile appears to have four tailfins. Reports are that the size would put into the category of a very long range air to air missile (VLRAAM) with ranges exceeding 300 km (roughly 186 miles), likely max out between 250 and 310 miles. (As a point of comparison, the smaller 13.8-foot, 15-inch-diameter Russian R-37 missile has a 249-mile range).

This missile would easily outrange any American (or other NATO) air-to-air missile.

The VLRAAM's powerful rocket engine will push it to Mach 6 speeds, which will increase the no escape zone (NEZ), that is the area where a target cannot outrun the missile, against even supersonic targets like stealth fighters.

vlraam_j-16.jpg

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5aLbyG_8...fFkJ3soaU8JlrrIb3iTQCLcB/s640/vlraam_j-16.jpg
vlraam_j-16_2.jpg

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-saAlBWuo...mpLAATtwDX7rQaAi8ACLcB/s640/vlraam_j-16_2.jpg
The VLRAAM is one of the world's largest air to air missiles. Its other advanced features include an AESA radar, a infrared/electro-optical seeker (under the yellow-orange cover on the forward section above the nosecone), and satellite navigation midcourse correction.

Large radar able to detect stealth targets

The new, larger missile's added value is not just in range. It has a large active electronically scanned (AESA) radar, which is used in the terminal phase of flight to lock onto the target. The AESA radar's large size—about 300-400% larger than that of most long range air-to-air missiles—and digital adaptability makes it highly effective against distant and stealthy targets, and resilient against electronic countermeasures like jamming and spoofing.

Another researched VLRAAM function is datalinking; the papers called for the VLRAAM to be embedded within a highly integrated combat networks. It is envisioned as just part of a larger wave of networked solutions aggregated through multiple Chinese systems. For example, a J-20 stealth fighter wouldn't mount the missile (the VLRAAM is too large to fit in the J-20's weapons bay), but could use its low observable features to fly relatively close in order to detect enemy assets like AEW and C aircraft (which are vital to gather battlespace data for manned and unmanned assets, but subsonic in speed and less able to evade missiles). Then before breaking off contact, the J-20 would signal a J-16 400 km (249 miles) away (outside the range of most air to air missiles) providing it the data needed to launch the VLRAAM at the target. This would offer China a longer range version of present U.S. tactics that involve using the fifth generation F-22 as a sensor for 4th generation fighters as the "shooters."

Putting US refueling and electronic warfare planes at risks messes with all US Air operation strategies

The gains in range and speed of the VLRAAM pose another significant risk to the concepts of the U.S. military's "Third Offset." U.S. operations are highly dependent on assets like aerial tankers, dedicated electronic warfare aircraft, and AEW&C. For example, without aerial tankers, the relatively short range of the F-35s would become even more of a liability in long range operations in the South China Seas and Taiwan Straits. Similarly, without AEW&C aircraft, F-22s would have to use onboard radars more, raising their risk of detection. Even for stealthy tanker platforms like the planned MQ-25 Stingray drone and proposed KC-Z tanker will be vulnerable to VLRAAMs if detected by emerging dedicated anti-stealth systems such as the Divine Eagle drone and Yuanmeng airship

SOURCE- Popular Science, wikipedia
 

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http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/japa...flies-bombers-fighters-through-miyako-strait/

Japan Scrambles Jets as China Air Force Flies Bombers, Fighters Through Miyako Strait
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force conducted a similar fly-through in September.

By Ankit Panda
November 26, 2016

On Friday, two Chinese fighters and bombers, in addition to two surveillance aircraft with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, transited the strategically important Miyako Strait, which lies south of the Japanese island of Okinawa, according to Japan’s Defense Ministry.

The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) scrambled jets in response to the flyby. Though the Chinese aircraft did not enter Japan’s territorial airspace, the proximity of the flyby to Japanese airspace prompted an ASDF response.

As I discussed in The Diplomat, the PLAAF carried out a similar drill in the Miyako Strait in September, which also prompted the Japanese ASDF to scramble fighters in response.

According to a PLAAF spokesperson at the time, that drill included a focus on “reconnaissance and early warning, attacks on sea surface targets, and in-flight refueling to test the Air Force’s fighting capacity on the high seas.”

According to a Japanese Defense Ministry news release on Friday’s flyby, the PLAAF contingent that flew through the Miyako Strait included two H-6 bombers, two Su-30 fighters, and two intelligence-gathering aircraft. In September, the PLAAF had also flown H-6 bombers, Su-30 fighters, and air tankers through the strait.

The H-6 bombers on Friday transited east-to-west through the strait and all aircraft entered the East China Sea from the Western Pacific. China declared a unilateral air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea in 2013.

Friday’s incident in the Miyako Strait also came as Chinese and Japanese officials met in Tokyo for the 6th joint working group consultation on a bilateral maritime and air communication mechanism that would govern encounters between the armed forces of the two countries. The two sides have been working to finalize the mechanism since 2012, but momentum was lost by rising tensions in the East China Sea.

Relations between China and Japan have been strained over maritime disputes in the East China Sea, most notably concerning the sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which Japan administers but China claims. Moreover, Tokyo strongly protested China’s declaration of an ADIZ in 2013.

This year, Chinese naval and coast guard vessels increased incursions into Japan’s territorial sea and contiguous zone in the East China Sea. In June, for example, a People’s Liberation Army-Navy frigate entered the contiguous zone of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands for the first time ever.

The PLAAF, in particular, has demonstrated a renewed interest in transiting strategically important passages along the first island chain. In addition to Friday’s incident and the September drill in the Miyako Strait, the PLAAF has conducted multiple transits of the Bashi Channel, the strategically important waterway separating the Philippines’ northern island of Luzon and Taiwan.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...r_beijing_in_the_south_china_sea__110381.html

Four Ways Donald Trump Can Deter Beijing in the South China Sea

By Harry J. Kazianis
November 25, 2016
Comments 24

On the day President-elect Donald J. Trump first steps foot in the oval office the weight of the world’s problems will be squarely on his shoulders. The Islamic State, tensions with Russia and an out of control Syrian Civil War will loom large, ready to test the resolve of the new administration almost immediately.

Moreover, while all of the above could fully occupy the new President’s attention for years to come, a greater, multi-decade dilemma with truly global ramifications awaits—the growing challenge presented by the People’s Republic of China.

No Bigger Challenge:

While many experts and scholars can readily recite a laundry list of reasons for growing tensions in the U.S.-Sino relationship, there is only one that counts: Beijing has determined that it no longer needs to bide its time or hide its capabilities, evidenced by China’s opposition to a U.S. led international system in the Asia-Pacific. In fact, Beijing has every intention to slowly but surely push America out of Asia and dominate what is clearly the world’s fastest growing economic region today.

And among all of the China-related problems Trump will need to deal with, growing economic competition, a rising military, increasing pressure on Japan in the East China Sea, tensions with what Beijing describes as the “renegade province” of Taiwan and so on, there is one, to be specific, a certain body of water that will test the skills of his new diplomats and strategists more than anything else: the South China Sea.

Why The South China Sea Matters:

It’s no wonder world-renowned journalist and geostrategic thinker Robert Kaplan proclaimed this treacherous sea “Asia’s Cauldron.” With over $5 trillion dollars of seaborne trade passing through ($1.2 trillion of which is U.S. goods, by the way) along with vital natural resources that power economic juggernauts like Japan, South Korea as well as China, whoever dominates the South China Sea dominates Asia. Because of this, Beijing is working hard to build what are essentially new islands in the area along with military bases and rotating in various military platforms to cement its claims and change facts on the water to ensure future dominance—all without firing a shot.

So why hasn’t the current administration worked harder to push back against Beijing in the South China Sea? While declaring a pivot to Asia back in 2011, the Obama administration’s much hoped foreign policy achievement suffered from problems nearly right from the start. Domestic challenges in the form of bruising budget battles that led to sequestration plus crisis after crisis abroad sapped the resources and political capital needed to turn the pivot into a reality.

A Plan of Action to Preserve the Status-Quo:

The incoming Trump Administration clearly has an opportunity to reset expectations and make sure China knows that it will not be able to achieve its goals in the South China Sea.

I would offer the following four key points as part of a new South China Sea strategy that could be easily implemented by the new administration with the goal of deterring China from dominating the area for the foreseeable future:

One: Don’t Be Afraid to State the Facts - The incoming administration must be willing to admit and make clear the realization that China is committed to changing the status-quo. Trump’s new team must be willing to call Beijing out when it acts aggressively and readily state the obvious— that China is a great-power competitor to the United States.

While this might seem obvious, the Obama administration’s attempts to play nice and hold their collective tongues exudes weakness. While we don’t need to declare China the “evil empire”, we do need to make sure we are honest in our assessment of what Beijing is trying to do in the South China Sea and beyond.

Two: Assemble the Best Team - Whom Trump picks for various positions in his administration will signal to America’s allies and partners in Asia that we either mean business or that the Asia-Pacific will be a backwater of our foreign policy planning for years to come.

While the floated pick of Congressman Randy Forbes as Secretary of the Navy is a good first step, Trump will need to make strong picks in even bigger positions in the very near future. Selecting former Senator Jim Talent, someone who has requisite experience on China issues, would be an exceptional choice. Picking former Governor Mitt Romney would signal Trump can work with even the most bitter of rivals and that he has the temperament and judgment that world leaders will be looking for in our new Commander-In-Chief, especially in Asia.

Three: Don’t Make Promises You Cannot Keep (or Won’t) - President Obama rattled Asian leaders when he declared a “red line” in Syria over chemical weapons and broke what was an implied promise to act if crossed. And to be clear, they are not angry that Assad got away with attacking his people with chemical weapons nor are they upset that a seemingly inviolable international norm was broken. No, they were upset over the idea of what it meant for them, the fear that America would not come to their aid over bigger challenges, such as if China attacked Taiwan or if Beijing decided to land troops on disputed islands in the East China Sea. One Taiwanese diplomat last year said to me bluntly: “We don’t trust you after you broke your word in Syria.” Trump’s new Asia hands—and indeed his whole foreign policy team—must remember never to make promises you cannot keep.

Four: Be Prepared for a Long Struggle - China’s attempt to dominate the South China Sea—

and eventually all of Asia—will be a multi-administration challenge. Chinese scholars, government officials, and active military personnel I have spoken to through the years have always echoed the same basic thought that America does not have the will, the patience or the strategic mindset to compete for dominance in Asia. President Xi Jinping and company feel they can wait us out, and that time is on their side. The new administration, if they are to put forward a successful strategy, must know that this will not be one or two-year challenge, but will extend through the entire Trump tenure in office, and beyond.

Harry J. Kazianis (@grecianformula) is director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, founded by former U.S. President Richard M. Nixon.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mhi-defence-bae-systems-idUSKBN13K0CD

BUSINESS NEWS | Fri Nov 25, 2016 | 12:19am EST

Exclusive: Japan's MHI U.S. Army vehicle suspension may mark milestone for defense exports

By Tim Kelly and Nobuhiro Kubo | TOKYO
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) (7011.T) has designed a new suspension for the U.S. Army's Bradley Fighting Vehicle, said two sources with direct knowledge of the matter, potentially the first Japanese defense hardware built for export in decades.

The design is for an upgrade of the mainstay infantry carrier proposed by Britain's BAE Systems (BAES.L). If adopted, it would be the first Japanese component designed specifically for a foreign military to be exported in seven decades.

MHI and other Japanese defense companies are seeking overseas sales after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lifted a ban on arms exports two-and-a-half years ago. However, no significant export deals have been secured yet.

"It could be a pretty good deal for Mitsubishi Heavy," said one of the sources who know about the partnership with BAE, asking not to be identified because he is not authorized to talk to the media.

The U.S. Army currently has around 6,000 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and has asked BAE and rival General Dynamics Corp (GD.N) to submit proposals for new or upgraded vehicles to improve mobility, fire power and survivability.

The sources did not say how much the Japanese suspension will cost. Twelve of the suspension components would be needed for the twelve road or "bogie" wheels per vehicle to cushion its tracks.

BAE displayed a prototype upgraded Bradley for the first time at the Association of the United States Army exposition in Washington in October, where it also displayed a mock up of MHI's suspension.

“It was simply displayed alongside the vehicle and at this time remains an early prototype, not a part of the vehicle,” said a spokesman for BAE Systems.

MHI did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

MHI, the maker of Japan's main battle tank, will gain new overseas avenues for its armored vehicle technology through the partnership with BAE. Since the end of World War Two, it has developed kit exclusively for the nation's Self Defense Forces.

However, that limited market for battle tanks and armored vehicles has shrunk over the past several years as Japan pivots to reinforcing islands along the southern edge of the East China Sea instead of preparing for an invasion by Russian forces on Japan's northern Hokkaido island.

MHI, the maker of the World War Two-era Zero fighter, has been making armored vehicles for Japan's military for eight decades.

In April, MHI missed out on a chance to land a major foreign military contract after Australia rejected a variant of its Soryu submarine in favor of a French design for a planned new fleet of submarines.

However, foreign companies have shown interest in MHI's gear technology and water jet propulsion systems to drive armored amphibious vehicles, industry sources earlier told Reuters.

(Reporting by Tim Kelly and Nobuhiro Kubo; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
 

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http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/chinas-maritime-strategy-on-the-horizon/

China's Maritime Strategy on the Horizon
There’s a fleeting strategic opportunity for the U.S. to influence Beijing’s looming and evolving maritime strategy.

By Tuan N. Pham
November 24, 2016

Last July, I authored an article titled “America Has a Chance to Beat Back China’s South China Sea (SCS) Strategy,” highlighting an aggressive Chinese public relations (PR) campaign throughout the region and across the globe to influence world opinions and present Beijing’s legal and political positions in the SCS. I suggested that the PR shift may be part of larger Chinese recalibration of its assertive (and oftentimes unilateral) actions in the SCS to meet the mounting unfavorable geopolitical conditions and regional trends (at that time). I then asked what the PR shift reveals about Beijing’s developing maritime strategy, and, more importantly, what could Washington do to shape and influence that strategy? In this follow-on article, I further assess the evolving strategy and outline how Washington could respond.

Deeper Analysis of China’s Maritime Strategy

Beijing’s forthcoming maritime strategy will shape its comportment and actions in the maritime domain in the near- and far-term, and possibly in the other contested domains of space and cyberspace as well.

Chinese maritime strategists have long called for a maritime strategy – top-level guidance and direction to better integrate and synchronize the multiple maritime lines of effort in furtherance of national goals. For Beijing, the ruling by the International Tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague makes this imperative even more pressing. China’s Communist Party’s Central Committee, State Council, and Central Military Commission in July signaled their intent to draft such a document as part of Beijing’s grand strategy for regional preeminence (and possibly global preeminence). The document proposes coordinating Beijing’s maritime development with efforts to safeguard its maritime rights and interests.

China’s maritime activities are driven by its strategic vision of the ocean as “blue economic space and blue territory” crucial for its national development, security, and status. Beijing is on a quest to build maritime power, and naval and security issues are only part of that grand vision. The new maritime strategy will encompass more than just the People’s Liberation Army Navy and Maritime Militia. Also at play is China’s wide-ranging approach to maritime economic, diplomatic, environmental, and legal affairs. Hence, the new guidance will need to rationalize and balance two competing national priorities – defending maritime rights and interests (national security) and developing the maritime economy (economic prosperity). Anticipate the initial emphasis will be on the latter since it fits well with economic initiatives already underway – the Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road (otherwise known as One Belt One Road), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – and is an enduring asymmetric counter to the perceived military-centric U.S. “rebalance to Asia.”

The calculus is simple for Beijing. Why would China opt to directly compete now with the stronger U.S. military when it can subtly and quietly undermine American regional preeminence through lasting economic partnerships and enduring political agreements that underscore and reinforce its strategic narratives – the uncertainty of U.S. commitment and policy constancy, the geographic reality of China’s presence, and the economic benefits derived from good ties with Beijing (an economic juggernaut and rising global power). China can always recalibrate later based on the fluid strategic conditions and confront the United States when opportunities arise, or if and when the military balance of power shifts more in its favor.

In creating a formal maritime strategy, Beijing may be trying to fill domestic legal gaps that it sees as hindering its ability to defend territorial claims in the East China Sea (ECS) and SCS, and justify its activities in international waters. Last March, China announced its intent to create new domestic maritime laws in support of its evolving maritime strategy, part of a continuing effort to set the terms for international legal disputes it expects will grow as its maritime reach expands. These developing domestic maritime laws bear watching as a public expression of Beijing’s strategic intent in the maritime domain, a possible harbinger for the other contested domains, and an attempt to right a perceived historical wrong. China feels disadvantaged (and taken advantage of) by a Western-dominated system of international maritime laws established when it was weak as a nation and had little say in its formulation.

A prominent example of shaping maritime law to support maritime strategy is China’s expansive and fluid legal position on the permissibility of military activities in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Beijing contends that military activities on the high seas and in the EEZ are unlawful based on the legislative spirit of United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and a requirement from that treaty that the high seas be used only for peaceful purposes. Though the language in UNCLOS mentions only the high seas, Chinese legal scholars further assert that military activities are unlawful in the EEZ as well. The logic is that if UNCLOS requires states to use the high seas only for peaceful purposes, then foreign activities in the EEZ (a special area governed by the coastal state) must also be peaceful and so military activities, which are inherently not peaceful, are not permitted. American legal scholars counter that military activities have been a recognized lawful activity on the high seas and in the EEZ under customary international law, and conducted in the exercise of freedom of navigation preserved within UNCLOS.

In context of its unfolding maritime strategy, the aforesaid broad legal stance makes a lot of legal, political, and military sense from Beijing’s perspective. China wants to set the enabling conditions for its future maritime strategy in terms of implementation and sustainment. Beijing seeks to expand its maritime borders through claimed EEZs, buttress and justify its growing maritime presence and operations, and exert greater control within those maritime zones with legal underpinnings, and eventually shape international maritime law to be more equitable and complementary to its national interests.

Potential U.S. Response

Once completed and promulgated, the maritime strategy will be enmeshed in national policy and strategic messaging. At that point, Washington’s ability to shape and influence Beijing’s approach and regional perspectives will significantly decrease. For now, however, there are a number of things the United States can do (or should not do) to influence the maritime strategy that China eventually adopts:

Do Exercise Strategic Patience. Despite the apparent warming of China’s ties with regional neighbors (the Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand), it may be premature to conclude that the recent changes in geopolitical conditions and regional trends have markedly and permanently shifted in Beijing’s favor. The Indo-Asia-Pacific remains a very fluid environment, which makes any recalibrations transitory. Hence, Washington should exercise strategic patience and allow regional dynamics to settle before setting a new policy course. If the regional trajectory does indeed turn unfavorable to long-term U.S. national interests, then it becomes even more an imperative to do the following to reverse the tide.

Do Not Cede Maritime Territory. As Beijing refines its strategic maritime approach, its near-term focus will be on its offshore waters. In particular, China’s doctrine sees U.S. sensitive reconnaissance operations (SRO) and special mission ship (SMS) surveys in these waters as the tip of the U.S. military spear. Beijing judges their value as strategic, not operational. Expect continued Chinese efforts to create offshore vacuums, like reductions in SRO and SMS missions, that Beijing can fill strategically and permanently. The post-PCA ruling environment is not the time to cede territory in the maritime domain, especially during the upcoming period of strategic risk and uncertainty. Beijing may engage in provocations to further test U.S. resolve and commitment and challenge U.S. regional preeminence through the first six months of the next administration. Therefore, Washington should stress the value of SRO and SMS missions for the United States as strategic as well as operational. China is pursuing a very broad, long-term maritime strategy and may view any perceived U.S. force posture reduction as a reward (tacit acknowledgement and consent) for its unilateral rejection of the PCA ruling, a win for its strategy and preferred security framework, and another opportunity to reset the regional norms in its favor. Reduction may also increase Beijing’s confidence in its ability to shape and influence Washington’s decisions and encourage China to press the United States for additional concessions, in return for vague and passing promises of “restraint.”

Do Not Cede the Strategic Narrative. To compete with Beijing, Washington needs to reframe the narrative that China dominates with accusations of containment. Washington’s strategic message seems largely reactive and defensive, simply seeking to counter Beijing’s message. Consequently, the United States could be more proactive and seize the messaging initiative like it did during the Shangri-La Dialogue in June and in the November/December 2016 edition of Foreign Affairs. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter hit the right resonance notes in both forums with his gentle reminder to the region of the United States’ traditional role as the “principal underwriter” of maritime security, political stability, and economic prosperity in the Indo-Asia-Pacific; his warning for China not to build a “Great Wall of self-isolation”; and his use of the catchall concept of “principled security network of alliances and partnerships” to outline a vision that the United States has long sought to describe. The message needs to be reiterated at every opportunity and at the highest level, and synchronized throughout the whole-of-government and with allies and partners. There can be no U.S. policy seams or diplomatic space for Beijing to exploit. In short, acknowledge that both countries have competing visions; highlight the flawed thinking of Beijing’s approach; champion Washington’s approach as the better choice; and encourage China to act as (or become) a more responsible global stakeholder and net provider of maritime security that contributes positively to the international system.

Do Not Cede the Strategic Initiative. The maritime strategy and accompanying domestic maritime laws are coming, but China has not said when. Ask Beijing for discussions and briefings on its developing strategy and laws now, and actively engage in the private and public domains. Challenge vague or problematic content, such as how the security and economic pieces fit together. Inquire how they comport with extant international maritime law (UNCLOS) and contribute to the regional security network, and if they do not, why not. Otherwise, silence concedes the strategic initiative to Beijing and allow it to control the strategic narrative.

Do Maintain the Rebalance. To date, the most effective counterbalance or check to China’s campaign of tailored coercion in the ECS and SCS is the U.S. rebalance – an amalgamation of integrated soft and hard deterrent powers (multilateral diplomacy, economic integration, and military presence) to reassure allies and partners by strengthening defense (security) relations and demonstrating resolve and commitment; enhance force posture, capabilities, and readiness through geographical distribution, operational resilience, and political sustainment; and bolster economic ties with a multinational trade agreement (Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP). All in all, the rebalance imposes the largest strategic cost to Beijing while providing the greatest reassurance to allies and partners.

Do Involve the Interagency (Whole-of-Government). China studies other nations’ current and historical approaches – particularly the 17th to 19th century British Empire and 20th century America – as it develops its own maritime strategy, providing an opening for engagement and a degree of shaping. Given the exceedingly broad nature of Beijing’s approach to maritime issues (an amalgamation of Corbettian/Mahanian principles, Chinese nationalism, and Chinese characteristics), an appropriate forum could be the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue reinforced by other forums like the Shangri-La Dialogue and Association of Southeast Asian Nations Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus.

Do Ratify UNCLOS. The ratification of UNCLOS will undercut Beijing’s calling into question Washington’s sincerity to international norms. China is a member of UNCLOS but often violates its provisions, whereas the United States has not ratified UNCLOS but has been its foremost champion on behalf of freedom of navigation, global commerce, and international rule of law.

Do Mitigate Plans for TPP Withdrawal. President-elect Trump reaffirmed his intent to withdraw from the TPP deal. The ramifications of such a move will have far-reaching and lasting foreign policy consequences that cannot be understated or underappreciated. The TPP is by far the most “promising and enduring” counter to China’s developing maritime strategy. The powerful economic integration tool would have bound the United States to 11 other regional economies, guaranteed a trading system with higher standards, and complemented the other rebalancing instruments of multilateral diplomacy and military presence.

That being said, the heart of the matter now is how best to deal with a future outcome with no TPP. Regional countries view the TPP as a litmus test for U.S. credibility in Indo-Asia-Pacific. The demise of TPP will not only reinforce the Chinese internal belief and external narrative of a declining United States and a rising China; it will also impel many regional countries, to include possibly some allies and partners, to increasingly consider other economic alternatives like the China-led RCEP. If so, Beijing will gladly take on the burdens and benefits of regional economic leadership, a step closer to a possible Chinese sphere of influence in the Western Pacific.

At the end of the day, the strategic window of opportunity to shape and influence Beijing’s developing maritime strategy may be closing soon for Washington. To China, U.S. inaction implies tacit acknowledgement and consent to execute its maritime strategy and strategic ambitions unhindered and unchallenged. At stake is nothing less than U.S. preeminence in the Indo-Asia-Pacific and ultimately as a global power. For decline is a deliberate choice, not an imposed reality.

Tuan N. Pham has extensive experience in the Indo-Asia-Pacific. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Government.
 

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http://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/11/25/2-us-servicemembers-killed-in-syria-iraq.html

1st US Service Member Killed Fighting ISIS in Syria

Military.com | Nov 25, 2016 | by Brendan McGarry
Comments 74

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to correct earlier version that included an incorrect reference to a casualty in Iraq and incorrectly attributed information to Fox News. We regret the errors.

The first U.S. service member was killed on Thursday in fighting against the Islamic State in Syria, officials said.

The troop died from injuries sustained in a roadside blast near Ayn Issa in the northern part of the country, according to a statement from Combined Joint Task Force -- Operation Inherent Resolve.

The name of the individual wasn't immediately released, pending notification of next of kin.

Defense Secretary Ashton Carter offered his condolences after the tragedy.

"I am deeply saddened by the news on this Thanksgiving Day that one of our brave service members has been killed in Syria while protecting us from the evil of ISIL," he said in a statement, using another term for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.

"It is a painful reminder of the dangers our men and women in uniform face around the world to keep us safe," he added. "Please keep this servicemember's family, friends and teammates in your thoughts and prayers, and this Thanksgiving I hope you will join me in expressing thanks to all of our dedicated troops who selflessly protect us everyday."

Hundreds of U.S. troops, primarily special operations forces, have deployed to Syria to combat ISIS. The troops are helping local forces retake the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa.

Nearly a half-million people have died during the five-year-old civil war in Syria, according to advocacy groups. Heavy fighting has recently occurred in the northwestern city of Aleppo, where Syrian government forces backed by Russia have launched airstrikes against rebels who oppose the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

While U.S. supports forces opposed to the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Russia provides military and financial backing to government troops.

Another 5,000 American service members are serving in Iraq to help Iraqi and Kurdish forces combat militants affiliated with the extremist group. Many service members are advising Iraqis and Kurds in an operation to retake the city of Mosul.

A total of 17 coalition members, all American, have been killed in Iraq in 2016, according to the website icasualties.org.

-- Brendan McGarry can be reached at brendan.mcgarry@military.com. Follow him on Twitter at @Brendan_McGarry.
 

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22 Syria rebels hit by IS chemical attack: Turkey army

AFP
45 mins ago

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Provided by AFP The Turkish army is backing pro-Ankara Syrian rebels in an unprecedented incursion aimed at rooting out Islamic State (IS) jihadists from the border area

Twenty-two pro-Ankara Syrian rebels were hit by a chemical gas attack from Islamic State (IS) jihadists in northern Syria, the Turkish army said on Sunday.

"After a rocket was fired by Daesh (IS), 22 opposition members were observed to have been exposed in their eyes and bodies to chemical gas," the general staff said in a statement, quoted by the state-run Anadolu news agency.

It said the attack happened in the area of the village of Khaliliya, east of Al Rai in northern Syria.

Turkish media said that the affected Syrian fighters were brought over the frontier to the Turkish border town of Kilis by teams from Turkey's AFAD emergencies agency.

The reports said that the Turkish emergency workers were equipped with special chemical suits to protect themselves. The Syrians were brought to the main hospital in Kilis where they are currently undergoing treatment.

Television pictures showed some of the Syrians being transferred on stretchers to the hospital, with the emergency workers dressed in full-body white protective clothing and gas masks.

The Turkish army is backing the Syrian fighters in an unprecedented incursion aimed at rooting out IS jihadists from the border area and also ensuring there is no Kurdish militia presence.

In a three-month operation, the rebels have so far captured the IS stronghold of Jarabulus, cleared IS from Al Rai and retaken the symbolically important town of Dabiq without much resistance.

With Turkish support, they are now pressing to take Al Bab from the jihadists in an advance that appears to be taking more time and encountering greater opposition.
 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-navy-yemen-syria-idUSKBN13M08M

World News | Sun Nov 27, 2016 | 3:57am EST

Iran may seek naval bases in Yemen or Syria: chief of staff

FILE PHOTO: Iran's national flags are seen on a square in Tehran February 10, 2012, a day before the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl/File Photo

Iran may seek to set up naval bases in Yemen or Syria in the future, as distant footholds might be more valuable militarily than nuclear technology, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces said in remarks published on Sunday.

"We need distant bases, and it may become possible one day to have bases on the shores of Yemen or Syria, or bases on islands or floating (bases)," said General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, quoted by the Shargh daily newspaper.

"Is having distant bases less than nuclear technology? I say it is worth dozens of times more," added Baqeri, who was speaking at a gathering of naval commanders.

Iran is a main ally of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's civil war and of the armed Houthi movement fighting a Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen.

(Reporting by Dubai newsroom; Editing by Mark Potter)
 

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Syria blames Turkey for loss of soldiers; government troops advance in Aleppo

By BASSEM MROUE The Associated Press
First Published Nov 26 2016 04:21PM ** • ** Updated 5 hours ago

Beirut • A Syrian official Saturday blasted Turkey, saying it is to blame for the death of its soldiers because it sent them to Syria. Meanwhile, the Syrian army said troops have captured a neighborhood in the northern city of Aleppo days after the government resumed its offensive on the besieged rebel-held eastern part of the city.

Syria's deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad's comments were the first by a Syrian official since Thursday when three Turkish soldiers were killed in northern Syria in what the Turkish military said was a pre-dawn Syrian airstrike. The account was disputed by Syrian activists who said the soldiers were killed by a suicide attack by the Islamic State group the day before.

Since then, two more soldiers have been killed over the past two days in fighting near the town of al-Bab, an IS stronghold.

"Turkish policies are responsible for the tension in Turkish-Syrian relations," Mekdad told the Lebanon-based Pan-Arab Al-Mayadeen TV. He added that Turkey took part in sending foreign fighters into Syria and armed them "in order to destroy Syria and Syrians."

Mekdad did not confirm or deny whether Syrian aircraft were behind the attack that killed the three Turkish soldiers but said that "if the Turks want to complain they should complain to themselves. What happened was inside the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic."

Since Syria's crisis began in March 2011, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government has been a strong supporter of Syrian rebels trying to remove President Bashar Assad from power.

Turkey sent ground troops into northern Syria in August to help Syrian opposition fighters battle both IS and U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces, which Ankara sees as an extension of the Kurdish insurgency in southeastern Turkey.

The Turkish troops are not fighting Syrian government forces, and have not been attacked by them, though Damascus has strongly objected to the military intervention.

On Saturday, Turkey's state-run news agency said a Turkish soldier was killed and three wounded in an attack during an anti-IS operation in north Syria, raising to five the number of Turkish troops killed in Syria this week. It said the dead and wounded soldiers were brought back to Turkey.

The rising Turkish-Syrian tension came as Syrian troops captured Aleppo's Hanano district days after government forces and their allies launched an offensive involving deadly street battles in the area.

The army said troops "have seized full control" of the eastern district in Syria's largest city.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said troops now control most of the district, adding that Hanano was the first Aleppo neighborhood to fall into the hands of rebels in 2012.

Syrian state media said rebel shelling of west Aleppo killed three people and wounded 15 adding that some 150 residents of east Aleppo have been able to leave the besieged area of 275,000 people on Saturday.

The Observatory said that since the government offensive resumed on east Aleppo on Nov. 15, 357 people have been killed in the city and nearby villages.

The Observatory also reported that deals have been reached to evacuate fighters from the Tal and Khan al-Shih suburbs of the capital Damascus.
 

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Middle East

Israeli Military Kills 4 IS Militants in Syria After Ambush

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
NOV. 27, 2016, 3:57 A.M. E.S.T.

JERUSALEM — The Israeli military says it has killed four Islamic State-affiliated militants in Syria, after the militants opened fire on a military patrol on the Israeli side of the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

Lt. Col. Peter Lerner says the Israeli patrol came under machine gun and mortar fire early Sunday. They returned fire toward Syria before an Israeli aircraft engaged, striking a machine gun-mounted vehicle and killing its passengers. All were suspected militants from an IS offshoot that controls the area. No Israeli troops were harmed.

Israel has largely been unaffected by the Syrian civil war next door. There have been sporadic incidents of spillover fire that Israel has generally dismissed as tactical errors of the Assad regime. This appears to be the first case of an intentional ambush targeting Israeli troops.
 

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Nov 27, 2016 @ 12:01 AM 30,496 views

To Disarm North Korea, Wage Trade War On China

Gordon G. Chang, Contributor

Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House told the Trump transition team that North Korea was, in the words of the paper, the “top national security priority” for the incoming administration.

Virtually every American analyst agrees on what Trump should do to meet the No. 1 threat: drop his plans of confronting China on trade to obtain its assistance on “denuclearizing” the Kim regime.

This line of thinking is not new and ignores 13 years of American foreign policy failure. In fact, it’s possible the opposite is true, that waging a trade war on China may be the only way to obtain Beijing’s cooperation on North Korea.

It’s not hard to see why the outgoing administration thinks the North is such a danger. At this time, Kim Jong Un, the regime’s unstable ruler, can press a button and send three types of missiles to the lower 48 states, the Taepodong-2; the road-mobile KN-08; and the KN-08 variant, the KN-14. Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center thinks the KN-14 might be able to reach Washington, D.C.

The consensus is that North Korea cannot mate a nuclear warhead to these launchers, but in, say, four years, it will have that capability as well. The North already possesses a nuke that fits atop its Nodong intermediate-range missile, which can travel a little under a thousand miles.

How did North Korea, one of the world’s most destitute states, develop its nukes and missiles in the face of opposition of virtually all the international community? The simple answer is that Presidents Obama and Bush relentlessly pursued ineffective policies.

With the regrettable exception of about a month in early 2012, when his negotiators crafted the misguided Leap Day deal, Obama practiced a policy of “strategic patience,” not talking to the North Koreans until they showed good faith. At the same time, Washington worked with Beijing to impose sanctions as the North detonated four nuclear devices during the president’s eight years.

That Obama policy was an understandable reaction to Bush’s failed efforts. The 43rd president, placing a higher priority on integrating China into the international system than disarming the North, gave Beijing a lead role in multilateral negotiations, the so-called Six-Party talks.

Instead of helping to craft a solution, Beijing used its central position to give the North Koreans the one thing they needed most to make themselves a real menace, time. Kim Jong Il, the father of the current ruler in Pyongyang, stalled the talks so that he could conduct his regime’s first test of an atomic device. That occurred in October 2006, in the middle of then-ongoing negotiations.

With a new administration taking office in January, there will undoubtedly be a new North Korea policy, but China is still seen as the key to a solution. Said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, to the Wall Street Journal, “I see little reason to think a combination of sanctions and diplomacy will deter North Korea” unless Trump gains Beijing’s assistance.

To gain that assistance, Jane Perlez of the New York Times wrote on Friday that Trump may have “to prioritize security over trade in his dealings with China.” She paraphrased Yang Xiyu, a former mid-level Chinese official, this way: “With the right approach, he could find a willing partner in Beijing.”

There has been no “willing partner” or “right approach” this century. Despite—or maybe because of—American attempts to seek cooperation, China has played a duplicitous game. This spring, for instance, David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security charged that Beijing had not interrupted the flow of items from China for the North’s bomb programs, such as cylinders of uranium hexafluoride, vacuum pumps, and valves.

That’s not all. After the imposition of the U.N.’s March 2 sanctions, Beijing both allowed blacklisted North Korean vessels to visit Chinese ports and busted the new rules with its trade in coal and jet fuel. Now, China’s commerce with North Korea appears to have returned to pre-March levels.

And the China-North Korea cooperation may be even more sinister. The submarine-launched ballistic missile North Korea tested on August 24 resembles China’s JL-1.

Until recently, Washington imposed no cost on China for its blatant support of North Korea’s weaponization. On September 26, however, the Treasury Department added Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Development Co. Ltd., its owner, and three employees to its list of Specially Designated Nationals. By doing so, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the listed parties.

Treasury did not explain its designations, the first secondary sanctions on China, but Joshua Stanton of the One Free Korea site told me the parties were listed for laundering Pyongyang’s money.

On the same day, the Justice Department announced the unsealing of indictments of the same four individuals and Hongxiang for various crimes including the laundering of funds through the U.S. financial system for North Korea.

Moreover, Justice initiated civil forfeiture actions to recover money in 25 Chinese bank accounts but did not impose any sanctions on the financial institutions themselves. The decision to not go after the banks looks like a mistake as they have been deeply involved in the North’s illicit dealings.

North Korea looks impossible to solve, and it is if we see China as on our side. It is not.* But if we treat China as part of the problem, which it most certainly is, then we can begin to craft solutions, like secondary sanctions. Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, will stop supporting North Korea only when the costs of doing so are too high. So far, his country has suffered almost no penalty.

To impose costs, Trump’s administration could, among other things, cut offending Chinese banks off from the global financial system, sanction every Chinese proliferator, and impose his threatened 45% across-the-board tariff on China’s goods. He could end negotiations on the Bilateral Investment Treaty and treat Chinese businesses like Beijing treats American ones.

And Mr. Trump, starting January 20, will have the tools to raise the costs on Beijing. The Chinese will surely retaliate, but they have few effective options for a long-term struggle. After all, last year they ran a $334.1 billion trade surplus in goods and services against the United States. Trade-surplus countries are vulnerable in trade wars, and that is especially true of a China with an already fragile economy that is dependent on the American market.

A more coercive American approach may not work, but the current set of policies, in place for two decades, are guaranteed to fail. They have resulted in an even more irresponsible Beijing and a nuked-up Kim regime.

So it’s time for fresh approaches, perhaps even to wage that trade war with China, not just to protect the jobs of American workers and the profits of American businesses but the lives of American citizens.

Follow me on Twitter @GordonGChang and on Forbes.* And find much more here.
 

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http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/preventing-mosul-from-becoming-fallujah-on-a-grand-scale

Preventing Mosul from Becoming Fallujah on a Grand Scale

by Gary Anderson
SWJ Blog Post | November 26, 2016 - 7:03am

Iraqi forces have stalled in their attempt to retake Mosul, the nation’s second largest city. They are facing the nightmare scenario envisioned by US Marine Corps planners in the 1990s when we undertook a series of experiments designed to improve our urban combat capabilities.

Fighting among a population ties the hands of the attacking force unless it decides to rubble buildings and accepts the awful civilian casualties that would result. It is a testament to the Iraqis that they have rejected that option. However, this means that Iraqi forces are not able to use artillery and airpower to their full capabilities. The Iraqi government to date has warned the population to shelter in place rather than evacuate, but Iraq’s generals are now reconsidering that approach.

When we faced similar problems in our urban experimentation, many of us advocated developing directed energy non-lethal weapons that would temporarily incapacitate enemy fighters and any civilians in the buildings allowing for a less deadly approach to urban combat. For a number of reasons, policy makers decided not to pursue the non-lethal option. That left many of us with the opinion that draining the city of the civilian population before attacking it was a preferable option to fighting among the population. During the fighting in Fallujah earlier this year, much of the population self-evacuated; however, that caused a different set of problems because the civilians ended up stuck in the open desert lacking food, water, or basic shelter.

The Islamic State is using the citizens of Mosul as human shields, but as was the case in Fallujah, the population will flee once the city’s outer ISIS check points are breached by Iraqi security forces. This will be doubly true if civilians are encouraged to evacuate. At that point, we will see hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) rather than the tens of thousands that fled Fallujah. If the Iraqi government is not prepared for that influx, Iraq will have a humanitarian disaster on a biblical scale.

Consequently, if the Iraqis want to switch tactics and encourage evacuation, they need to prepare for a temporary mass relocation. That will mean setting up temporary camps, and that will take time.

If the Iraqis will agree to an operational pause, facilities can be set up fairly quickly. We have the experience and resources to help nongovernmental and interagency organizations prepare camps to temporarily house IDPs until the city can be cleared of Islamic State fighters. This will not alleviate the destruction caused by the actual fighting, but it will help prevent the tortuous disregard for civilian well-being that occurred in the aftermath of the Fallujah fighting.

Humanitarian concerns aside, there are good public policy reasons to prepare to shelter the displaced civilians. The destruction of Fallujah did nothing to endear the Iraqi government to the Sunni population of that chronically troublesome city. Providing shelter, food, and water is good as far as it goes; but if properly done, the organization of the camps can go a long way toward setting Mosul up for successful recovery from the fighting. It will be a security necessity to separate military age males from their families for biometric screening and to ensure that hard core ISIS fighters are weeded out, but reuniting legitimate male family members with the women and children should be a priority. In the meantime, emphasis should be on organizing camps by Mosul neighborhoods, along ethnic and religious lines. This serves several purposes. First, it reduces the chances for ethnic and sectarian violence in the camps. Second, it allows for some sense of normality providing the ability for neighbors and family to reunite.

Finally, if surviving local government and security officials are allowed to administer neighborhood areas of camps, it will facilitate rebuilding. Neighborhoods can be reoccupied as they are declared cleared.

Trying to build governance from scratch is difficult at best. Rebuilding from an existing framework is much more efficient. The maxim that, “all politics is local” is true for governance as well. If IDPs can reoccupy their city with coherent local leadership in place, residents will have a better probability of recovery, and their chances of being loyal to the Iraqi central government are enhanced.

Evacuation, even if done properly, will be traumatic; but it will save countless lives among civilians and Iraqi security forces. The initial loss of Mosul was a disaster, but killing thousands of civilians to retake it would be a tragedy. Then, when the dust settles we should reconsider non-lethal weapons.

About the Author

Gary Anderson is a retired Marine Corps Colonel who has been a civilian advisor in Iraq and Afghanistan. He is an adjunct professor at the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs.
 

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...ts_law_legalizing_shiite_militias_110385.html

Iraq's Parliament Adopts Law Legalizing Shiite Militias

By Hamza Hendawi & Qassim Abdul-Zahra
November 27, 2016

BAGHDAD (AP) — Rekindling sectarian rivalries at a sensitive time, Iraq's parliament on Saturday voted to fully legalize state-sanctioned Shiite militias long accused of abuses against minority Sunnis, adopting a legislation that promoted them to a government force empowered to "deter" security and terror threats facing the country, like the Islamic State group.

The legislation, supported by 208 of the chamber's 327 members, was quickly rejected by Sunni Arab politicians and lawmakers as proof of the "dictatorship" of the country's Shiite majority and evidence of its failure to honor promises of inclusion.

"The majority does not have the right to determine the fate of everyone else," Osama al-Nujaifi, one of Iraq's three vice presidents and a senior Sunni politician, told reporters after the vote, which was boycotted by many Sunni lawmakers.
*"There should be genuine political inclusion. This law must be revised."

Another Sunni politician, legislator Ahmed al-Masary, said the law cast doubt on the participation in the political process by all of Iraq's religious and ethnic factions.

"The legislation aborts nation building," he said, adding it would pave the way for a dangerous parallel to the military and police.

A spokesman for one of the larger Shiite militias welcomed the legislation as a well-deserved victory. "Those who reject it are engaging in political bargaining," said Jaafar al-Husseini of the Hezbollah Brigades.

"It is not the Sunnis who reject the law, it is the Sunni politicians following foreign agendas," said Shiite lawmaker Mohammed Saadoun.

The law, tabled by parliament's largest Shiite bloc, applies to the Shiite militias fighting IS as well as the much smaller and weaker anti-IS Sunni Arab groups. Militias set up by tiny minorities, like Christians and Turkmen, to fight IS are also covered.

According to a text released by parliament, the militias have now become an "independent" force that is part of the armed forces and report to the prime minister, who is also the commander in chief.

The new force would be subject to military regulations, except for age and education requirements — provisions designed to prevent the exclusion of the elderly and uneducated Iraqis who joined the militias. The militiamen would benefit from salaries and pensions identical to those of the military and police, but are required to severe all links to political parties and refrain from political activism.

The legislation came at a critical stage in Iraq's two-year-long fight against IS, a conflict underscored by heavy sectarian tensions given that the group follows an extremist interpretation of Sunni Islam and the security forces are predominantly Shiite. The Shiite-led government last month launched a massive campaign to dislodge IS from predominantly Sunni Mosul, Iraq's second largest city and the last major urban center still held by the extremist group.

Through the military, the government has used the campaign to project an image of even-handedness, reaching out to the city's residents and promising them a life free of the atrocities and excesses committed by IS. It has also excluded the Shiite militias from the battle, winning a measure of goodwill from the Sunnis. But Saturday's legislation may stoke the simmering doubts of many Sunnis about the intentions of the government.

The Shiite militias, most of which are backed by Iran, have been bankrolled and equipped by the government since shortly after IS swept across much of northern and western Iraq two years ago. Many of them existed long before IS emerged, fighting American troops in major street battles during the U.S. military presence in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. Their ranks, however, significantly swelled after Iraq's top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, called for jihad, or holy struggle, against IS in June 2014.

They now number over 100,000 men and fight with heavy weaponry, including tanks, artillery and rocket launchers. The larger militias have intelligence agencies and run their own jails. Since 2014 they have played a key role in the fight against IS, checking its advance on Baghdad and the Shiite holy cities of Samarra and Karbala and later driving the militants from areas to the south, northeast and north of Baghdad.

Their heavy battlefield involvement followed the collapse of security forces in the face of the 2014 IS blitz, but their role has somewhat diminished in recent months as more and more of Iraq's military units regained their strength and chose to distance themselves from the occasionally unruly militiamen.

Iraq's Sunni Arabs and rights groups have long complained that the militiamen have been involved in extrajudicial killings, abuse and the theft or destruction of property in Sunni areas. They viewed them as the Trojan Horse of Shiite, non-Arab Iran because of their close links to Tehran and their reliance on military advisers from Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Many in the Sunni Arab community wanted them integrated into the military and police, a proposition long rejected by Shiite militia leaders, some of whom have on occasion spoken of their aspiration of evolving into a force akin to Iran's Revolutionary Guards or the Iranian-backed Hezbollah — both well-armed military groups with substantial political leverage and large economic interests.

Senior Shiite politician Amar al-Hakim sought to reassure Sunnis on Saturday, saying several laws to be issued by the prime minister to regulate the work of the militias would allay many of their fears. He did not elaborate, but added "The law creates a suitable climate for national unity."

In a statement, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi welcomed the legislation and said the "Popular Mobilization Forces" — the formal name of the militias — would cover all Iraqi sects.

"We must show gratitude for the sacrifices offered by those heroic fighters, young and elderly. It is the least we can offer them," said the statement. "The Popular Mobilization will represent and defend all Iraqis wherever they are."

But Sunni lawmaker Mohammed al-Karbooly said the law ignored pleas by Sunni politicians for the expulsion and prosecution of Shiite militiamen accused of abuses.

"The law, as is, provides them with a cover," he said.
 

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http://www.independent.ie/world-new...urge-into-rebel-areas-of-aleppo-35249701.html

Syrian forces surge into rebel areas of Aleppo

Philip Issa
Published 28/11/2016 | 02:30

Syrian government forces advanced deep into eastern Aleppo yesterday amid a swift collapse of rebel defences inside the divided northern city.

The advance into the city's Sakhour neighbourhood brings the military within less than 1km of commanding a corridor in eastern Aleppo for the first time since rebels swept into the city in 2012.

Residents in the east of the city expressed distress among opposition circles on social media and in messaging groups.

"The situation in besieged Aleppo (is) very, very bad, thousands of eastern residents are moving to the western side of the city," Khaled Khatib said, a photographer for the Syrian Civil Defence search-and-rescue group.

"Aleppo is going to die," he said on Twitter.

Syrian state TV broadcast a video showing a teary reunion between a soldier and his family after nearly five years apart.

The UN's child agency warned yesterday that nearly 500,000 children were now living under siege in Syria, cut off from food and medical aid.

Irish Independent
 

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/uganda-says-55-police-tribal-insurgents-killed-clashes-065826859.html

Uganda says 55 police, tribal insurgents killed in clashes

By Elias Biryabarema
Reuters
November 27, 2016

KAMPALA (Reuters) - The Ugandan authorities said on Sunday 41 tribal insurgents and 14 police officers were killed in clashes in the west of the country, and the tribal king of the area near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo was detained.

The police, who announced the death toll on Twitter, said the clashes took place in the Rwenzori region, where there has been unrest since a disputed presidential election in February that was won by veteran leader Yoweri Museveni.

Police said the people it simply described as "attackers" were fighting to create an independent state in the area.

Army spokesman Paddy Ankunda told Reuters that Charles Wesley Mumbere, the king of the Rwenzururu Kingdom who supports the opposition, was detained for questioning.

There are several tribal kings in Uganda who have a largely ceremonial role with some modest regional powers.

The opposition has accused the government of stoking tensions in the region, where the opposition has strong support, with a clamp down on political activity.

"The attackers used IED (improvised explosive devices as) grenades, guns, and spears to attack security personnel," the police said, adding a police vehicle at a security post was burned during the fighting.

"So far we have arrested 15 key ring leaders," police said.

According to the Daily Monitor, a leading local daily, a group of security personnel on patrol in Kasese, the biggest town in the region, was attacked by Mumbere's royal guards on Saturday, sparking a firefight that led to clashes.

It quoted a security official in its report.

Ankunda did not offer details about the clashes, and the police spokesman could not be reached for comment.

(Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Mark Potter)
 

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World

Egypt Troops In Syria: Cairo Denies Reports Of Military Presence In War-Torn Country

By Mary Pascaline @PadawanRadjou On 11/28/16 AT 12:45 AM

Egypt denied media reports that alleged*the presence of its military units in Syria. The country’s foreign ministry said Sunday Egypt does not intervene*in the internal affairs of other countries.

“These claims only exist in the imagination of those who promote them,” the ministry reportedly said in a statement, adding that such an intervention would require public legal measures.

The statement did not refer to any specific media outlets behind the claims but most reports cited As-Safir, a Lebanese daily which reported last week that Cairo sent a military unit of 18 pilots to an air base*in the west-central Syrian city of Hama*earlier in November. The report was based on “well-informed Arab sources” who said the unit was joined by four senior military officials upon arrival.

Citing sources close to the operation, As-Safir reported Cairo will deploy a large contingent of troops to Syria in late January 2017 to participate in operations “not limited to air support at Hama airbase.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said last week he supported the Syrian military.

“Our priority is to support national armies, for example in Libya to assert control over Libyan territories and deal with extremist elements. The same with Syria and Iraq,” he reportedly said in an interview with Portuguese broadcaster RTP.*“Our stance in Egypt is to respect the will of the Syrian people, and that a political solution to the Syrian crisis is the most suitable way, and to seriously deal with terrorist groups and disarm them,” the former army chief added.
 

Housecarl

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:dot5:

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://news.sky.com/story/anti-terror-police-deployed-on-londons-streets-10675458

Anti-terror police units deployed on London's streets

Uniformed and undercover anti-terror police are going on patrol in a bid "to disrupt potential terrorist activity and crime".

04:33, UK, Monday 28 November 2016

Anti-terrorism police patrol units are hitting the streets of London in an attempt to spot people carrying out "hostile reconnaissance" and other criminal activity.

Lambeth and Wandsworth will be the first areas to see the new patrol units of uniformed and undercover officers*from today, and*are due to be extended to*other boroughs in the coming months.

Scotland Yard*stressed the move was "not in response to a specific threat".

Operation Servator, as it is known, is a tactic of policing already used by other forces including City of London and British Transport Police.

It "is based on extensive research into the psychology of criminals and what undermines their activities", the Metropolitan Police said.

Other units will also be available, including the dogs and boat units and the territorial support unit riot police.

Sophie Linden, London's deputy mayor for policing and crime, said keeping Londoners safe was London Mayor Sadiq Khan's "top priority".

She said: "We know our emergency services do a great job every single day protecting our city. However we cannot be complacent, which is why it is good to see the Met rolling out Project Servator to help deter and detect crime in our city's busiest areas.

"This tactic was endorsed by Lord Harris in his review of London's preparedness for a terror attack, commissioned by the mayor.

"I urge Londoners to remain alert and report anything suspicious to the police as they work to keep us all safe."

City of London Police introduced Servator tactics in February 2014, using undercover teams, CCTV and number plate recognition technology to add to the 1990s "ring of steel" in place around the Square Mile.
 

Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...olice-detonate-bomb-near-us-embassy/94533556/

Philippine police detonate bomb near U.S. Embassy

Jane Onyanga-Omara , USA TODAY 5:54 a.m. EST November 28, 2016

Police in the Philippines detonated a bomb that was discovered near the U.S. Embassy in the capital Manila on Monday.

Ronald dela Rosa, the national police chief,*told reporters the incident was “an attempted act of terrorism.”

Police said the improvised bomb, made from an 81-mm mortar round, a cellphone, a blasting cap and a small battery, could have been powerful enough to kill people within 110 yards, the Associated Press reported.

Dela Rosa said the device, which was placed in a trash bin about 22 yards from the embassy compound by a person in a taxi, was the same type of explosive as one that killed 15*people at the Davao market on the southern island of Mindanao in September.

Several members of the Islamic State-linked Maute*group were arrested over the Davao blast. The terror group is suspected in Monday’s incident.

“After analysis, we can link it to the Maute because of what happened in Davao, the same (bomb) signature,” dela Rosa said.

He said the Maute militants may have wanted to create a diversion because the*group has*suffered heavy casualties in clashes with government security forces in the south of the country, the AP reported.

Molly Koscina, the press attaché for the U.S. Embassy in the Philippines, told CNN that a municipal employee*discovered the bomb.

"(He) reported the discovery of a device to U.S. Embassy guards, who immediately contacted the police. We are thankful that the municipal employee and the (police) took quick and appropriate action to ensure the safety of all,” she said, according to the broadcaster.
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...ry-acronym-you-need-know-ind-improvised-18496

The Buzz

The Next Scary Military Acronym You Need to Know: IND (Improvised Nuclear Device)

Nuclear terrorism could be hell.*

Michael Peck [2]
November 27, 2016

One of the most terrifying acronyms in the world is IED, or Improvised Explosive Device. First coined by the British in the 1970s, when the IRA demonstrated its expertise in homemade fertilizer bombs, the term IED has come to symbolize a new form of warfare, where death can come at any moment from a device buried in the ground or an innocent-looking car parked at the corner.

But if you thought IEDs were bad, get ready for an even more horrifying acronym: the IND, or Improvised Nuclear Device.

What is an IND? If you’ve seen any movies or books where the terrorists or the super villains build a nuclear bomb and hold the world hostage, then you know what an IND is.

And here is what an IND can do, according to a U.S. Department of Homeland Security hypothetical scenario [3] for a nuclear 9/11. If a terrorist group were to build a ten-kiloton bomb (the Hiroshima bomb was just fifteen kilotons) using nuclear materials smuggled into the United States, and detonate it in a major city, there would be one hundred thousand casualties as well as contamination of as much as three thousand square miles.

Ever since James Bond stopped SPECTRE from stealing nuclear weapons in the 1965 film Thunderball [4], the world has been waiting for a terrorist nuclear attack. In fact, there have been so many studies, predictions and warnings about INDs that they have become a sort of nonstop fire alarm for what everyone assumes is inevitable. Nonetheless, just this past April, President Obama reminded us [5] that a terrorist nuclear attack would “change our world.”

Pointing to chemical weapons used by ISIS in Syria, Obama warned [6] that “there is no doubt that if these mad men ever got their hands on a nuclear bomb or nuclear material they would certainly use it to kill as many people as possible.*.*.*. The single most effective defense against nuclear terrorism is fully securing this material so it doesn’t fall into the wrong hands in the first place.”

The problem is that there is a cornucopia of nuclear materials out there, including former Soviet stockpiles in Russia, and unstable nations like Pakistan. The terrorists might not even have to build or steal a bomb. They just need to purchase one from a rogue, cash-starved state such as North Korea [7]. Isn’t it comforting to know that all that money ISIS got from bootlegged oil and looted ancient artifacts could buy a ready-made bomb, like some kind of takeout meal?

Not that terrorists even need the smarts to trigger a nuclear explosion. Here’s another acronym that’s likely to make the headlines one of these days: RDD, or Radiological Dispersal Device. Merely detonating a “dirty bomb”—an explosive device that spreads radioactive materials—would cause some damage and much more panic.

What’s interesting is how the U.S. government defines an IND. A somewhat convoluted definition appeared this September in the Pentagon’s Joint Publication 3-42: Joint Explosive Ordnance Disposal [8], which governs explosive ordnance disposal across the U.S. armed forces. JP 3-42 defined an IND as:

a device incorporating fissile materials designed or constructed outside of an official government agency that has, appears to have, or is claimed to be a nuclear weapon that is no longer in the control of a competent authority or custodian or has been modified from its designated firing sequence.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s 2008 description of an IND [9] is more straightforward:

An IND is an illicit nuclear weapon bought, stolen, or otherwise originating from a nuclear State, or a weapon fabricated by a terrorist group from illegally obtained fissile nuclear weapons material that produces a nuclear explosion. The nuclear yield achieved by an IND produces extreme heat, powerful shockwaves, and prompt radiation that would be acutely lethal for a significant distance. It also produces radioactive fallout, which may spread and deposit over very large areas. If a nuclear yield is not achieved, the result would likely resemble an RDD in which fissile weapons material was utilized.

Note that according to these definitions, an Improvised Nuclear Device is any nuclear weapon built or acquired by a nongovernmental group, even if the bomb itself was manufactured by a nation like Pakistan or Russia. In other words, what makes an IND “improvised” isn’t that it’s jury-rigged or amateurish, but rather that whoever controls it isn’t an official government agency. One wonders whether the victims of an IND would be comforted by the thought that that bomb was just an improvised one.

If there is any consolation about an IND, it’s this: there won’t be a lot of them. Every day, there is another report of an IED going off in Syria or Afghanistan or Iraq. Rest assured that there won’t be INDs going off every day. If there are, we will have a new acronym: EHS, or Extinct Human Species.

Michael Peck is a frequent contributor to the National Interest and is a regular writer for many outlets like WarIsBoring. He can be found on Twitter [10] and Facebook [11].

Image [12]: The APPLE-2 Event, a 29-kiloton tower test at the Nevada Test Site. Wikimedia Commons/Public domain
Tags
Terrorism [13]Nuclear weapons [14]defense [15]Technology [16]IED [17]Military [18]Politics [19]
Topics
Security [20]
Regions
Americas [21]

Source URL (retrieved on November 28, 2016): http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...ry-acronym-you-need-know-ind-improvised-18496
Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...ry-acronym-you-need-know-ind-improvised-18496
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/michael-peck
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Response_Scenario_Number_One
[4] http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0059800/
[5] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35947702
[6] https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pres...-prime-minister-rutte-opening-session-nuclear
[7] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...-north-korea-could-ever-do-sell-nuclear-18313
[8] http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp3_42.pdf
[9] https://www.fema.gov/txt/about/divisions/thd/repp_rdd_pag.txt
[10] https://twitter.com/Mipeck1
[11] https://www.facebook.com/michael.peck.967
[12] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Teapot_Apple-2_001.jpg
[13] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/terrorism
[14] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/nuclear-weapons
[15] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/defense
[16] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/technology
[17] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/ied
[18] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/military
[19] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/politics
[20] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
[21] http://nationalinterest.org/region/americas
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...-russia-chinas-cold-war-nuclear-weapons-18518

The Strange Story of Russia and China's Cold War Nuclear Weapons Break-Up

And the CIA had a frontrow seat.*

WarIsBoring [2]
November 27, 2016

Late last year, the CIA declassified a treasure trove of information — the daily briefs it wrote for U.S. presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson from 1961 to 1969. The agency’s memos cover one of the most fascinating and frightening periods of American history.

During the 1960s, communist ideologies ruled in both the Soviet Union and China. At the time, propaganda often depicted the two countries marching in lockstep to plant the red flag across the globe.

The truth, however, was far more complicated. At some points, just based on the CIA’s briefings with no outside historical knowledge, it seemed as if Beijing outright hated Moscow … especially Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.

The agency seemed to take glee in reporting the ins and outs of the Sino-Soviet split. Sometimes that joy got weird.

Relations were not always frosty between the two communist powers. Throughout the ’40s and ’50s the two maintained a cordial, even helpful relationship. But the commie buddy routine didn’t last, and by 1961 China’s leadership had formally denounced the Soviets as “revisionist traitors.”

The reasons why are complicated and varied, but one of the points of contention between the two powers was nuclear weapons. Moscow detonated its first nuclear warhead in 1949. By the middle of the 1950s, Mao Zedong decided China needed nukes too, and he looked to his Soviet friends for help.

The Kremlin was happy to oblige at first. It sent advisers and agreed to help China develop its own weapons program. As late as 1958, China had sent uranium to Russia in exchange for two R-2 ballistic missiles. Then Khrushchev told Mao he planned to discuss nuclear arms control with the West.

Mao didn’t take it well. By 1960, the Soviets were no longer helping China develop a nuke.

The CIA took great pleasure in the breakup and that pleasure bled over into the agency’s briefings to the president. In 1962, the agency began to write to the president about how the two great communist powers seemed at odds.

“We cannot confirm press reports that [Beijing] has asked the USSR to close all of its consulates in China,” the CIA wrote on Sept. 21, 1962. [3] “There is, nonetheless, tenuous evidence suggesting that Moscow’s posts at Harbin in Manchuria and [Urumqi] in [Xinjiang] may in fact have been closed.”

“Nevertheless, we are coming to believe that a new period of open hostility between the two powers has arrived.”

Beijing took every opportunity to remind both Russia and the West that the superpowers’ stranglehold on nuclear weapons was one of China’s biggest problems.

“The Chinese communists have told Moscow in strong language that [Beijing] will speak for itself when it comes to renouncing the right to nuclear arms,” the agency wrote on Oct. 12, 1962 [4]. “Beijing has been saying publicly that the purpose of our arms limitation proposals has been to cheat them out of nuclear arms.”

As autumn wore on that year, relations between China and Russia worsened. The spies recounted every moment of the division with fervor.

“The Chinese have started using troops instead of police and border guards to patrol their border with the USSR,” the CIA explained in early October [5]. “With relations at a low ebb, the Chinese evidently do not exempt the Soviets when they speak … of the danger of agent infiltration and subversion by the imperialists.”

Later that month, as the Cuban Missile Crisis unfolded, China took every opportunity to call out the Kremlin and its leadership for what it saw as a bungled opportunity. “[Beijing] … is grumbling that Moscow … has shown itself to be weak-kneed,” the CIA wrote on Oct. 26 [6].

“Communist China’s leaders have recently stepped up their criticism of Soviet foreign policy and appear determined to undermine confidence in Soviet Leadership,” the agency wrote in late October [7] as the Cuban Missile Crisis wound down.

China used the moment to score easy propaganda points against the USSR … and let the Soviets know exactly why. “[Beijing’s] latest note charges the Soviets with betrayal for allowing international communism to fall behind in the nuclear arms race by not sharing technical information with China since 1959.”

In 1963, the United States, United Kingdom and the Soviet Union signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty. The agreement prohibited the countries from conducting nuclear test detonations above ground. At the time, scientists and leaders worried about radioactive fallout and an uncontrolled nuclear arms race.

Except China.

“The Chinese yesterday handed diplomatic missions in [Beijing] a letter from [Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai] calling for a meeting of all chiefs of state to discuss the Chinese proposal for a total ‘prohibition and destruction’ of nuclear weapons,” the CIA explained to Kennedy in early August [8]. “It appears that the Chinese are trying to spread the letter as widely as they can in an effort to trump the test ban agreement.”

“They have coupled this move on the diplomatic front with the most outspoken attack on the Soviets yet to see light in China,” the agency continued. “An almost apoplectic People’s Daily yesterday drew for its readers a picture of Soviet leaders ‘embracing Imperialism in joyous abandon.’ The paper alleged that the test ban agreement is a ‘U.S.-Soviet alliance against China pure and simple.’”

In the ’60s, Beijing never missed an opportunity to call out Moscow … or call for insurrection. “The paper ended by implying that the Soviet people would surely react against this ‘betrayal’ by their leaders.”

The Kremlin didn’t take Beijing’s call to arms well.

“The Soviets lost no time striking back at the Chinese for the insults [Beijing] published on Saturday,” the CIA told Kennedy the next day [9]. “Moscow, as might be expected, took particular offense at the Chinese attempt to turn the Soviet people against their government. Such talk, the statement says, could only come from those who are ‘doomed by history’ and are themselves on shaky ground.”

“The Soviets take the occasion to reject [Beijing’s] call for a summit meeting on nuclear disarmament which they say is a merely a cover for China’s refusal to sign the test ban agreement.”

‘Study the Soviet Union’s advanced economy to build up our own nation,’ from 1953. Image and translation via chineseposters.net[/caption]

As the decade wore on, relations between China and Russia went from worse … to weird.

“Yesterday [Beijing] put on sale its second volume of Khrushchevian memorabilia,” the agency explained in mid-October, 1964 [10]. “It covers reports, speeches, and letters extracted from Pravda issues between 1942–53, the first volume published last August having covered material from the 1930s.”

That’s right, China was putting out books about how much Khrushchev sucked.
“The publisher’s note claims that comparison of Khrushchev’s past and present statements shows him to be a ‘conspirator, careerist and double faced hypocrite’ and at one time an obsequious sycophant of Stalin.”

It may seem weird that Beijing published a multi-volume set dedicated to dumping all over Russia’s leader, but it made a lot of sense back then. China felt it was in an ideological conflict with the Soviet Union over the soul of communism.

Beijing wanted to oust the Kremlin as the spiritual leader of a global movement. The best way to do that, it felt, was to demean and belittle the men in charge. But pretty soon Beijing wouldn’t have Khrushchev to kick around anymore.

On Oct. 14, 1964, the Soviet leadership ousted Khrushchev. He went without a fight. Two days later, China detonated its first nuclear bomb. For Beijing, it was a happy autumn. The CIA seemed … depressed.

“Within hours of its successful nuclear test, [Beijing] started beating the drum for an all-nation summit conference to discuss prohibition and destruction of nuclear weapons,” the agency wrote at the time [11]. “This was presumably intended to dampen adverse criticism abroad. The Chinese made a similar proposal in 1963 when they refused to sign the test ban treaty, and they may be expected to continue to push it.”

“The Chinese have not publicly acknowledged the help they received from the Soviets in laying the technical foundations for their nuclear program. Rather, they say the success of today’s shot was due to the hard work of Chinese scientists who ‘displayed a spirit of relying on their own efforts.’”

A day later, the CIA bemoaned the events [12].

“The successful atmospheric test at to Lop Nor site, coming as it did on the heels of Khrushchev’s ouster, has doubtless added to the already monumental self-regard of the Chinese leadership,” the agency wrote in the president’s Oct. 17 briefing.

“Within hours of exploding a rough 15 KT device, they were jubilantly describing the event to the world as a ‘major contribution to peace,’ arguing that they, unlike earlier nuclear powers, could be trusted to be neither adventurous nor capitulationist with their bomb.”

China was now a nuclear power, a fact that the rest of the world rushed to acknowledge.

“Western European statesmen have reflected resignation at an anticipated development and have focused on its political ramifications,” the agency wrote. “Several have round in the Chinese success a new and persuasive argument for admitting [Beijing] to world forums.”

Then things got weirder.

“Sic Transit Gloria Mundi. In these last few days the ax has been falling all over the world. Not only has it cut down such diverse figures as Khrushchev and Lord Home, but it has shown itself no respecter of either victor or vanquished; both the Cardinal’s Johnny Keane and the Yankees Yogi Berra have felt its edge.”

Thus passes the glory of the world. Lord Alec Douglas-Home was the British prime minister, but lost the position on Oct. 15. Johnny Keane and Yogi Berra were both baseball managers. Keane ran the St. Louis Cardinals and Berra managed the New York Yankees.

The two faced off against each other in the World Series that year. Keane’s Cardinals won, but he resigned from the team a few days later. The owner of the Yankees fired Berra. The two best teams in the league no longer had managers.

It’s an odd moment in the briefs, the most personal and human moment I’ve seen so far. Between baseball, nuclear China and the hippies, the 1960s must have seemed like a turbulent time to the CIA.

This first appeared in WarIsBoring here [13].

Image Credit [14]: Creative Commons/Wikicommons.*
Tags
Russia [15]China [16]Soviet Union [17]Military [18]Technology [19]Nuclear weapons [20]Cold War [21]
Topics
Security [22]

Source URL (retrieved on November 28, 2016): http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...-russia-chinas-cold-war-nuclear-weapons-18518
Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...-russia-chinas-cold-war-nuclear-weapons-18518
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/warisboring
[3] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005995941.pdf
[4] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005995977.pdf
[5] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005995959.pdf
[6] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005996003.pdf
[7] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005996009.pdf
[8] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005996487.pdf
[9] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005996489.pdf
[10] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005959480.pdf
[11] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005959489.pdf
[12] http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/1827265/DOC_0005959490.pdf
[13] https://warisboring.com/the-cia-s-weird-history-of-nuclear-china-a20bbb9160fb#.t7alhgon6
[14] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bunker_museum,_NBC_suit_(9644552334).jpg
[15] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/russia
[16] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/china
[17] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/soviet-union
[18] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/military
[19] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/technology
[20] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/nuclear-weapons
[21] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/cold-war
[22] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Israel Burns!
Started by Buick Electra‎, 11-24-2016 09:26 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?506541-Israel-Burns!

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/...-israeli-arabs-confess-starting-terror-fires/

Report: Two Israeli Arabs Confess to Starting Terror Fires

by BREITBART JERUSALEM
28 Nov 201611

The Times of Israel reports: Two Israeli Arabs arrested on suspicion of deliberately starting brush fires have confessed to the crimes, police reportedly told ministers at the weekly cabinet meeting on Sunday.
The suspects were said to from the Israeli Arab towns of Umm al-Fahm and Deir Hanna in northern Israel, the Hebrew-language Ynet news website reported. The report did not specify which fires the two admitted to igniting or offer details on the suspects.

While many of the fires that ravaged towns and cities nationwide since Tuesday have been caused by negligence, officials say at least some of the blazes were started by nationalistically motivated Arab arsonists and have vowed to crack down on the perpetrators.

Read more here.
 

Housecarl

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http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/27/is-trump-ready-for-chinas-inevitable-test-of-american-power/

Daily Caller News Foundation

Is Trump Ready For China’s Inevitable Test Of American Power?

RYAN PICKRELL
10:18 PM 11/27/2016

China’s worldview prompts it to probe the strength and resolve of the dominant power, and President-elect Donald Trump will inevitably be tested.

In recent years, China has carefully tested and evaluated each new American president.

“The Leninist core of Chinese leadership thinking makes Beijing probe assiduously for international opportunities stemming from changes in counterparts’ personalities, policies, and power,” Dr. Andrew Erickson, a leading expert on China, explained to The Daily Caller News Foundation. China sees power in relative terms; one country’s loss is another’s gain. Weaknesses, even in a dominant power, are vulnerabilities that can be exploited.

For former President George W. Bush, his test was the 2001 Hainan Island Incident.

On April 1, 2001, only a few months into Bush’s first term, a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) J-8II interceptor fighter jet collided with a U.S. Navy EP-3E ARIES II signal intelligence aircraft near Hainan Island in the South China Sea. Chinese pilot Lieutenant Commander Wang Wei died in the crash.

Although it became an international incident, the crash itself was not the real test for the Bush administration; rather, the test was the pattern of increasingly-dangerous interceptions which occurred prior to the accident.

“The PLA began its recent pattern of aggressive interceptions of U.S. reconnaissance flights in December 2000,” a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report notes. Between December 2000 and April 13, 2001, there were 44 PLA interceptions of U.S. reconnaissance flights in international airspace over the East China Sea and South China Sea.

Chinese interceptor fighter jets came within 30 feet of U.S. aircraft six times. In two instances, the distance between Chinese and U.S. aircraft was less than 10 feet.

Through repeated interceptions, Beijing appeared interested in determining whether or not Washington would call its bluff. The U.S. did exactly that, and the results were fatal.

Following the incident, China scaled back interceptions of U.S. surveillance aircraft, while the U.S. did not make any substantive concessions to the Chinese.

A few weeks after President Barack Obama took office, the Chinese tested him by harassing ocean surveillance ship USNS Impeccable.

China took what retired Navy Capt. Raul Pedrozo called an “aggressive, unsafe, and unprofessional action against an unarmed naval auxiliary vessel.”

On March 8, 2009, five Chinese vessels — specifically a Navy intelligence ship, a government fisheries-patrol vessel, a state oceanographic patrol vessel, and two fishing trawlers — surrounded the Impeccable in international waters about 75 miles off the coast of Hainan Island.

The fishing ships came within 25 feet of the U.S. ship and even stopped in front of it, forcing the Impeccable to take emergency action to avoid a collision.

The Impeccable returned the next day accompanied by a guided-missile destroyer, a reasonable yet temporary solution overlooking a far more complicated and troublesome problem that has continuously resurfaced during Obama’s time in office.

The Chinese fishing vessels dispatched to harass the Impeccable were part of China’s Third Sea Force, its Maritime Militia. The threat has gone unacknowledged and unaddressed by the Obama administration.

As Trump prepares to take office, he can expect to be tested as well, possibly by issues left unresolved by the previous administration.

“Beijing’s longstanding opposition to key principles of international air-sea law and its growing assertiveness in the South China Sea make it view ‘unapproved’ American activities there as contravening vital interests,” Erickson told TheDCNF. “Recent evolution of bilateral frictions suggests that China might test Trump by using Maritime Militia personnel and vessels to pose some sort of ambiguity, complication, and possible harassment to a U.S. freedom-of-navigation operation.”

China uses its Third Sea Force as a paramilitary force while portraying units as noncombatants. The ambiguous appearance allows China’s Maritime Militia to engage in “gray zone aggression.”

“Make no mistake, these are state-organized, -developed, and -controlled forces operating under a direct military chain of command,” Erickson revealed at a House Committee on Armed Services hearing in September.

“Trump and his team must prepare for manifold contingencies from the start. Among them, a Maritime Militia challenge would stand out for the Obama administration’s failure to pave the way with basic public preparations,” Erickson asserted. “The Administration’s apparent dismissal thus far of repeated recommendations that it at least mention China’s Maritime Militia by name to begin raising awareness can only have emboldened Beijing.”

“This is a force that thrives within the shadows of plausible deniability,” Erickson argued in September. “China’s Maritime Militia can only be as deceptive and plausibly deniable as we allow it to be through our own silence and our own inaction.”

Throughout the Obama administration, the Third Sea Force has repeatedly made its presence known. Outside of the incident with the Impeccable, the Maritime Militia was also involved in the 2011 sabotage of two Vietnamese hydrographic vessels, 2012 seizure of Scarborough Shoal, 2014 repulsion of Vietnamese vessels near a Chinese oil rig in disputed waters, and 2015 shadowing of the USS Lassen during a freedom-of-navigation operation.

Although it has yet to do so, the Obama administration still has time to address this challenge.

“To avert a potential setback or crisis, the Obama Administration must immediately ‘call out’ China’s Maritime Militia officially in public, share information with countries at risk, and communicate clearly to Beijing that any ships ignoring repeated warnings by U.S. vessels to desist from disrupting or harassing them will be treated as military-controlled and handled accordingly,” Erickson told TheDCNF. “Regardless of what leadership and stewardship President Obama ultimately demonstrates in this regard, Trump and his team must prepare to pass their China test. The world is watching.”

While Trump promised to get tough on China on the campaign trail, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Trump and his policies, making him a likely target for persistent probing early on in his first term. “How he responds will reverberate across the region and around the world,” Erickson emphasized.

By firmly upholding the rules of the road, Trump has the ability to pave the way for sustainable U.S.-China cooperation within a rules-based international order. Failure to do so will result in a continuation and possibly an exacerbation of existing challenges.

Follow Ryan on Twitter

Send tips to ryan@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/asia-pacific-china-plays-nice-because-it-can

In the Asia-Pacific, China Plays Nice Because It Can

Analysis NOVEMBER 26, 2016 | 14:00 GMT

Summary
The contested waters of the South China Sea are a geopolitical flashpoint, but for now they exist in a period of comparative calm. Following a July ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, countries with territorial claims in the waters struck a conciliatory tone, most prominently over the Scarborough Shoal — a barely submerged coral atoll that has become a touchstone for affairs between China and the Philippines, traditional adversaries in the South China Sea. A normally recalcitrant Beijing, forced to accept a more delicate and complex maritime arrangement in the region, is making placating gestures at last.

The shoal is emblematic of deeper issues at stake, namely the nature of maritime boundaries and bilateral concerns over fishing rights and exploitation of strategic territory. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte made a high-profile visit to China in October and, following a strategic recalibration on both sides, Beijing and Manila appeared to be moving toward a joint mechanism of control over the shoal. The aspiration is that the countries will eventually be able to achieve some form of coexistence. That said, such a delicate arrangement is susceptible to domestic pressure, especially from nationalist movements, and to additional sovereignty disputes that may develop.

Analysis
Since early November, China has quietly eased its naval blockade around Scarborough Shoal, which it seized in 2012 after a hostile standoff. As part of the ongoing appeasement process, Beijing not only allowed access to Filipino fishermen and vessels but also offered fishing assistance. Although Philippine coast guard vessels have also been permitted to return to the locale, many points of contention are unresolved. Beijing still exercises some degree of control over the shoal, including conducting routine patrols, and Manila will not ease its attempts to push maritime boundaries. China has blocked access to the shoal's central lagoon. In return, Duterte has called for a fishing ban in the lagoon itself. And there is the matter of the underlying claim of sovereignty, which remains unresolved. Even with this diplomatic chafing, however, Beijing and Manila appear to have enough strategic reasons to sustain the current arrangement, at least for now.

South-China-Sea-Maritime-Claims-11-23-2016%20%281%29.png

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/defa...itime-Claims-11-23-2016 (1).png?itok=LldAF7ja

An Evolving Strategy

Located 120 nautical miles from the Philippine mainland — well within Manila's internationally recognized exclusive economic zone — Scarborough Shoal also rests within the eastern edge of China's maritime claim, known as the nine-dash line. The shoal is crucial to Manila's territorial integrity and is a buttress when it comes to external security. Yet, it is also key terrain in Beijing's plan to become a maritime power. The net result of these incompatible positions is that neither side will back off its claim. For Manila, Beijing's seizure of the shoal — and subsequent expansionism — not only dealt a serious blow to Philippine maritime defense but also represents a diminishing opportunity to counter Beijing's broader maritime aggressiveness in a practical manner.

In achieving international legal intervention, Manila won a diplomatic upper hand, but despite the July arbitration ruling, effectively resisting Beijing physically proved impossible. Furthermore, the Philippines' vocal opposition to China and its orientation toward Washington (and, to a lesser extent, Tokyo) put Manila at risk of Chinese maritime aggression as well as economic and diplomatic alienation. In context, Duterte's diplomatic reorientation allows Manila to amend its volatile relationship with Beijing while attaining desirable economic concessions. At the same time, Duterte hopes to restore a Philippine presence along the maritime boundary. This, in turn, could help alleviate domestic resistance toward the regional rebalancing act.

Similarly, Beijing perceives eased relations with Manila over the South China Sea as an opportunity to expand its own strategic space. China's immediate concessions are a luxury afforded by its significant tactical advantage in the shoal: Its strong military presence and its naval and maritime enforcement advantage over the Philippines would allow Beijing to achieve full control if it so desires. Indeed, the chances of China reasserting itself there are high, despite Washington's warnings against such an action.

By offering some concessions on Scarborough Shoal, however, Beijing shows its far-reaching aspirations. An effective arrangement to manage the dispute demonstrates Beijing's willingness to negotiate, encouraging other South China Sea claimants to rethink their approach. Beijing hopes the diplomatic track will help reduce external involvement, leading to international acknowledgement of its maritime interests. Shortly after the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, Beijing refashioned its joint energy exploration proposals — which had been stalled for years — and reached out to a number of claimant countries through significant economic concessions. Meanwhile, China also enticed Malaysia and Vietnam back toward bilateral negotiations, but with mixed results.

Beijing Tries Diplomacy
China's charm offensive is in part driven by an evolving strategic recalibration at home. Despite its ambition for maritime domination, Beijing's policy of expansionism over the past six years led to contradictory outcomes for its foreign policy agenda. South China Sea claimant states — most notably the Philippines and Vietnam, and to a lesser extent Indonesia and Malaysia — have responded to Beijing's activities by expanding their military capabilities while seeking cooperation from external powers, such as the United States, Japan and India. The result has been increasingly internationalized waters that, from China's perspective, equate to hostile competitors stalking its periphery. At the same time, Beijing understands that the strategic ambiguity over its maritime claims — its ungrounded nine-dash line, lack of clearly defined sovereignty and defiance of international law — has reached a limit.

It is unlikely that Beijing will ever ease its assertive behavior in the South China Sea. Rather, the new maritime status quo, aided by the court ruling, could lead China to reconsider which strategies best suit the country's immediate interests. New courses of action might take years to develop, but for now, Beijing's current imperatives — to avoid outright military confrontations, circumvent further interference from the international community and not provoke all of its Association of Southeast Asian Nations neighbors at once — make further antagonistic behavior counterproductive.

A High-Stakes Game
The fate of Scarborough Shoal speaks to the new maritime reality for most South China Sea claimants: China's dominant military and technological advantages. Lacking options to effectively counter Beijing's practical control, either by force or international intervention, claimant countries are rendered powerless. This also feeds the prevailing regional perception of Washington's reduced sway in the Asia-Pacific and explains the generally conciliatory gestures made by Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Beneath the status quo, however, one thing is assured: Every stakeholder in the South China Sea is working behind the scenes to strengthen its footing. Claimant countries continue to search for external supporters to bolster their defense and negotiation positions; China plots to take control of what it considers to be its rightful territory; and the United States, working within its regional alliance, must somehow continue to assert itself, even though the future presidential administration's intentions remain unknown for now.

Whether Beijing's conciliatory stance over Scarborough Shoal marks a genuine strategy shift or is simply a facade, the underlying fervor surrounding territorial rights will not dim anytime soon. China is a past master at manipulating sovereignty for its own ends and is more than content to provoke through words, if not actions. Beijing's talk of "allowing access" to the shoal rather than conceding a claim fuels nationalist sentiments in Manila. In many respects, Scarborough Shoal is a testing ground for China, and any future territorial challenges will depend on the political climate in claimant countries as well as abroad. There is also the question of Beijing's maritime ambitions, which might render the need for diplomacy obsolete.

As peaceful as things may appear on the surface, when it comes to Scarborough Shoal, the stakes are as high as they ever were. And when China no longer feels inhibited by the desire to play nice, there will be no dispute as to who physically owns the shoal. The question then switches to what, if anything, the region or the international community is prepared to do about it.

---

EEZ
The 1994 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea grants nations an exclusive economic zone of up to 200 nautical miles from the coast and around some islands, carrying rights to marine resources. This makes the official status of tiny rocks, reefs and islands essential.
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-putin-russia-231785

A Russia reset? Maybe not yet.

As Moscow talks up a possible Putin-Trump meeting, officials in Congress and the Pentagon are ready to block any attempt to appease the Russian president.

By MICHAEL CROWLEY 11/28/16 05:06 AM EST

After a phone call between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin days after the U.S. election, Russian media buzzed that Putin might host Trump this winter to kick off what the Kremlin described as their joint effort to "normalize ties” between the U.S. and Russia.

The talk of an early state visit remains speculative. But Trump's avowed desire for better relations with the autocratic Russian president makes it plausible that Trump would pay the first presidential visit to Moscow since a hopeful trip by President Barack Obama in 2009.

But interviews with more than a dozen officials and experts contacted by POLITICO since the election reveal an unyielding bipartisan and institutional opposition to any perceived effort by Trump to appease Putin. Such a gesture would be met with strong resistance from Congress, European allies, career national security officials and possibly even some key Trump officials.

“Trump can’t just unilaterally do it,” said Stephen Cohen, an author and academic who supports improved American relations with Moscow. “We don’t know that there’s going to be a partnership with Russia at all.”

The talk comes at a particularly tense moment, with Putin announcing on November 21 that Russia would move nuclear-capable missiles into its European enclave of Kaliningrad to counter what he called the NATO “threat” to his country.

"The situation is heating up," Putin said of tensions with NATO in an interview with the filmmaker Oliver Stone broadcast on Russian television Monday.

1974_fidel_castro_ap_629.jpg
Cuba's Fidel Castro dies at age 90
By DAVID COHEN

Trump has pledged to cool it down. As a candidate, Trump promised to “get along great” with Putin, startling a foreign policy establishment that views the Russian leader as a treacherous enemy. Trump has suggested that the U.S. join forces with Moscow to fight the Islamic State, and mused about ending U.S. sanctions imposed since 2014 to punish Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Trump has also repeatedly expressed admiration for Putin and bragged that the Russian has called him "brilliant" — Putin actually used an adjective closer to "impressive" —leading critics to worry that the New Yorker may be dangerously eager for Putin's friendship and approval.

Many analysts expect that Putin will offer Trump military cooperation against the Islamic State, which has not been a focus of Russian operations in Syria. In return, Putin will seek recognition of Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula; an end to economic sanctions; and reduced U.S. military and political engagement in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Earlier this month, Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told the Associated Press that a "slow down or withdrawal of NATO's military potential from our borders" could "lead to a kind of detente in Europe."

But at the moment, talk of such an agreement is more likely to produce outrage on both sides of the Atlantic.

“The military doesn't believe in that, the State Department doesn’t believe in that, the intelligence community doesn't believe in that, the Republican Party doesn't believe in that, and none of our allies believe in that,” said Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO under Obama and president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

“It is very difficult to think about Russia as a country where we can make deals without compromising our principles,” said Petr Pavel, a Czech army officer and chairman of NATO’s military committee who spoke to POLITICO on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada last weekend.

The first obstacle to Trump's outreach could be within his own circle of top advisers. Vice president-elect Mike Pence derided Putin in an October debate as “small and bullying,” and said that recent “provocations by Russia need to be met with American strength.” Trump’s pick for CIA director, Rep. Mike Pompeo, has called the U.S. response to Putin’s aggression in Ukraine “far too weak.”

Trump's choice for national security adviser, Michael Flynn, might also warn his boss about dealing with Putin. Although the retired general infamously sat next to Putin at a December 2015 dinner in Moscow and has said the U.S. and Russia should fight Islamic terrorism together, he was caustic about the Russian in an October interview with POLITICO. "Putin is a totalitarian dictator and a thug who does not have our interests in mind," Flynn said.

Sources said that Trump’s pick for Secretary of State would send a strong signal about his intentions. One leading candidate for the post, Mitt Romney, has denounced Putin as a "thug" and in 2012 called Russia "America's number-one geopolitical foe," and is seen as unlikely to lead a strategic volte-face with Moscow.

161123_barack_obama_gty_1160.jpg
PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION
Obama's agencies push flurry of 'midnight' actions
By BOB KING and NICK JULIANO

If Trump does proceed with a Russian rapprochement, Congress may fight back.

For months, GOP leaders in Congress have slammed President Barack Obama's allegedly tepid response to Putin’s annexation of Crimea, and his backing for an armed pro-Russian insurgency in the country’s east that has killed thousands. They would be hard-pressed to defend a more forgiving Trump policy.

At the Republican convention in July, Trump campaign officials had to block proposed GOP platform language calling for arms to Ukraine. Trump has also hinted that he might recognize Crimea as part of Russia. (“You know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that,” he told ABC News in July.)

Congress has very different views on both scores. In March 2015, a House resolution calling on Obama to send arms to Ukraine’s government passed in an overwhelming 348-48 vote. And in September, the House approved another measure ordering the Government Printing Office to “not print any map, document, record, or other paper… portraying or otherwise indicating Crimea as part of the territory of the Russian Federation.”

While Trump could unilaterally end some U.S. sanctions on Russia that were imposed by Obama through executive orders, others would require Congressional action. They include sanctions on dozens of Russians implicated for human rights abuses under the 2012 Magnitsky Act, which Putin considers a major thorn in U.S.-Russian relations. Trump is unlikely to find much congressional support for its repeal.

Most top Republicans in Congress take a far more hawkish line towards Putin than Trump does. In September, House Speaker Paul Ryan rebuked Trump's praise of the Russian, calling Putin "an aggressor that does not share our interests." Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he would send arms to Ukraine's government and expand U.S. missile defense systems in eastern Europe—moves that would enrage Putin.

Senate Armed Services Committee chairman John McCain issued a statement shortly after the election warning Trump not to trust Putin. On CNN last month, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Bob Corker warned Trump against letting Putin’s “flattery” affect his judgment.

And in a statement to POLITICO, House Foreign Relations Committee chairman Ed Royce pointedly said he is “ready to work with the Trump administration to check Russian propaganda, see NATO bolstered and act from a position of strength.”

Even many Democrats take a hard line on Putin, making it difficult for Trump to go around his own party. Russia “is the one foreign policy area where [Trump] would most likely face united opposition from Congress,” said Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, a Senate Foreign Relations Committee member.

Any move by Trump seen as selling out America’s European allies, Coons added, would be “vigorously and persistently opposed by Democrats and Republicans in the Congress who over decades have worked together to resist Russian aggression in Europe and the Middle East.”

Trump's Russia policy could also encounter stiff resistance from military and intelligence officials.

The U.S. has escalated military and intelligence spending and activity against Moscow in recent months, particularly since Russia began conducting air strikes in Syria last fall, including against CIA-backed rebels.

161102_ted_cruz_getty_1160.jpg
Rubio, Cruz want Trump to dial back U.S.-Cuba relations
By REBECCA MORIN

Testifying before the Senate in July 2015, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Joseph Dunford— whose term as the president’s top military advisor runs until September—called Russia “the greatest threat to our national security” and said Putin’s behavior was “nothing short of alarming.”

“It’s going to be dark days in the Pentagon” if Trump seeks to dramatically relax the military’s confrontational posture towards Moscow, said Evelyn Farkas, who served as the defense department’s top Russia official under Obama.

Pentagon officials, Farkas noted, have spent months “working around the clock to challenge Russia’s subversive activities in Europe and the Middle East. This is going to be a real morale problem.”

U.S. intelligence officials are likewise conditioned for confrontation, having ramped up their covert and cyber operations against Russia at a time when Moscow has harassed and even allegedly drugged U.S. officials overseas. In July, national intelligence director James Clapper said the U.S. is in a “version of war” with Russia in cyberspace. And in October, the U.S. intelligence community concluded that the Kremlin directed the hacking of Democratic Party and Clinton campaign emails to disrupt this month's presidential election.

While legally bound to follow a president’s orders, military and intelligence officials can voice opposition internally and slow-roll policies with which they disagree. When Secretary of State John Kerry struck a limited deal with Moscow for military cooperation against the Islamic State in Syria this fall, for instance, a skeptical Pentagon undermined the short-lived plan through media leaks and bureaucratic intransigence.

Several officials and Russia experts were hopeful that Trump will reassess Putin in light of the classified intelligence briefings he now receives, which detail hostile Russian activities around the globe.

“That’s going to be a sobering moment for him,” said Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow under Obama.

Yet Trump has frequently been presented with public evidence about Putin’s malfeasance, including the U.S. intelligence finding that Russia interfered in the election, and repeatedly dismissed the allegations. That has led some critics to wonder if Trump might have some undisclosed interest—possibly a financial one—in the Russian leader's good graces.

To be sure, even Russia hawks support talking to Moscow on certain issues, like the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and say dialogue is crucial to containing tensions between the nuclear-armed states. “We understand that not communicating isn’t an option,” said Pavel.

Experts say Trump and Putin might initially build trust by cooperating in Syria, with Russia increasing strikes against the Islamic State and Trump ending U.S. support for Syrian rebels battling the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a Putin ally.

But Trump’s final obstacle to a new deal with Russia may be Putin himself. Trump would be the third consecutive U.S. president to reach out to the autocratic Russian leader, who took office in 2000 determined to restore his vision of Russian greatness after the collapse of the Soviet Union and what Putin considers America's opportunistic expansion of NATO to a weakened Russia's borders.

Both George W. Bush and Barack Obama extended a hand to Putin early in their presidencies, only to watch him seize foreign territory—in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014—and accuse Washington of threatening his country.

“The bad relationship with Russia is not a result of lack of trying,” said one State Department official.

Some argue that Trump could confound critics who fear he’ll roll over for Putin. Dmitri Simes, a former advisor to Richard Nixon who is president of the Center for the National Interest, believes Trump will privately send Putin a message of American resolve so that he can negotiate from a position of strength.

At the same time, Simes said, Trump would likely send “a clear message to Putin that we are not trying to remove him from power, we are not trying to humiliate him and we are not trying to diminish Russia—as long as he understands our red lines.”

Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said transition was going smoothly despite the large shockwave rippling through Washington about Trump's lobbying restrictions.

Conway unloads on Romney
By MATTHEW NUSSBAUM

Simes called his view informed by his contact with Trump’s campaign when the Center for the National Interest hosted the GOP nominee for an April foreign policy address.

But Simes also warned that a failed effort at comity between Trump and Putin—two proud men who do not suffer insults lightly—could set back relations even further. He recommended private diplomatic talks to avoid “public exchanges which can produce dangerous polemics, and the next thing you know the two leaders start to hate each other.”

Some skeptics about Trump’s ability to shift U.S. policy towards Russia can be found in Putin’s own government.

Trump’s election was met with initial optimism in the Russian capital, where members of the Russian Duma spontaneously applauded the news. But Kremlin officials have expressed wariness about what the incoming president can achieve.

“The U.S establishment has a very negative attitude towards the prospect of cooperation” with Russia, Ilya Rogachev, a Russian foreign ministry official, told the Russian news agency Interfax this month. “Remember how Obama promised, for example, to close the prison at Guantanamo more than 8 years ago?”

"I remember the great expectations of eight years ago, when Barack Obama was elected,” Russian Economic Development Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev told the German newspaper Die Welt earlier this month. “The result turned out completely different.”
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/uganda-says-55-police-tribal-insurgents-killed-clashes-065826859.html

Uganda says 55 police, tribal insurgents killed in clashes

By Elias Biryabarema
Reuters
November 27, 2016

KAMPALA (Reuters) - The Ugandan authorities said on Sunday 41 tribal insurgents and 14 police officers were killed in clashes in the west of the country, and the tribal king of the area near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo was detained.

The police, who announced the death toll on Twitter, said the clashes took place in the Rwenzori region, where there has been unrest since a disputed presidential election in February that was won by veteran leader Yoweri Museveni.

Police said the people it simply described as "attackers" were fighting to create an independent state in the area.

Army spokesman Paddy Ankunda told Reuters that Charles Wesley Mumbere, the king of the Rwenzururu Kingdom who supports the opposition, was detained for questioning.

There are several tribal kings in Uganda who have a largely ceremonial role with some modest regional powers.

The opposition has accused the government of stoking tensions in the region, where the opposition has strong support, with a clamp down on political activity.

"The attackers used IED (improvised explosive devices as) grenades, guns, and spears to attack security personnel," the police said, adding a police vehicle at a security post was burned during the fighting.

"So far we have arrested 15 key ring leaders," police said.

According to the Daily Monitor, a leading local daily, a group of security personnel on patrol in Kasese, the biggest town in the region, was attacked by Mumbere's royal guards on Saturday, sparking a firefight that led to clashes.

It quoted a security official in its report.

Ankunda did not offer details about the clashes, and the police spokesman could not be reached for comment.

(Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Mark Potter)

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uganda-security-idUSKBN13N0MY?il=0

WORLD NEWS | Mon Nov 28, 2016 | 1:57pm EST

Amnesty warns over extrajudicial killings after deadly Uganda clashes

By Elias Biryabarema | KAMPALA
Amnesty International on Monday accused Uganda of carrying out extrajudicial executions as authorities in the east African country said 62 people had died in clashes between a tribal militia and security forces in a restive western region.

The fighting between royal guards of a tribal king, Charles Wesley Mumbere, and a combined army and police force occurred on Saturday and Sunday in Kasese, the biggest town in Uganda's Rwenzori region located near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo.

A regional police spokesman, Mansur Suwed, told Reuters on Monday at least 46 members of the king's guards died in the fighting, which also left 16 police officers dead.

"In a shocking display of heavy-handedness, many people appear to have been summarily shot dead and their bodies dumped," Amnesty International said in a statement on Monday.

The security crackdown had shown "shocking examples of unlawful killings and a complete disregard for human rights during the arrests ... the government must ensure that police and soldiers observe restraint and desist from extrajudicial executions," the rights group added.

Paddy Ankunda, spokesman for Uganda's military, said he had no immediate comment on Amnesty's allegations.

"We're preparing a comprehensive government statement which will be issued tomorrow," he said.

Ugandan police were not able to be reached to comment on the allegations.

Earlier on Monday, police said they had taken control of Mumbere's palace after the fighting and seized a cache of machetes, spears and petrol bombs.

Security detained Mumbere on Sunday and accused his supporters of trying to create a new state in the area.

The Rwenzori area has been experiencing intermittent unrest since Uganda's disputed February presidential election, which the electoral body said was won by long-ruling President Yoweri Museveni.

Uganda's largest opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) got overwhelming support in the area.

There has been no statement from the king, a supporter of the opposition.

"The town is calm but we're still patrolling and monitoring. We have burnt down all the camps they (the guards) had established and also we've taken over the royal palace," Suwed told Reuters earlier on Monday.

Police, Suwed said, had also seized a rifle, a pistol, four walkie-talkies and knives from the fighters, and increased patrols in Kasese town.

Some opposition officials have said in the past the government was likely stoking the violence in the area to punish it for shunning the ruling party, a charge the government has denied.

An opposition legislator from the region, William Nzoghu denied the royal guards were armed and accused the government of using excessive force when storming the king's palace.

"It was madness. The action of government was real madness," he said.

(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; Writing by George Obulutsa; Editing by Katharine Houreld and Toby Chopra)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I'd expect Pyongyang to start getting squirrelier very soon....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-un-idUSKBN13N1WM

WORLD NEWS | Mon Nov 28, 2016 | 1:23pm EST

U.N. Security Council to vote Wednesday on North Korea sanctions: diplomats

By Michelle Nichols | UNITED NATIONS
The United Nations Security Council is set to vote on Wednesday morning on a U.S.-drafted resolution to impose new sanctions on North Korea over its fifth and largest nuclear test conducted in September, diplomats said on Monday.

Diplomats said the council's five veto-wielding powers - the United States, China, Britain, Russia and France - had agreed to new measures, seen by Reuters on Friday, that target Pyongyang's export earnings.

North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions since 2006. It conducted its latest nuclear test on Sept. 9, and the United States and China, a North Korean ally, then spent more than two months negotiating new sanctions. The draft resolution was given to the full 15-member council on Friday.

It intends to close loopholes in sanctions imposed in March, following Pyongyang's fourth nuclear test in January. That resolution banned the 193 U.N. member states from importing North Korean coal, iron and iron ore unless such transactions were for "livelihood purposes" and would not generate revenue for Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

The new sanctions to be voted on Wednesday would cap North Korean coal exports at $400.9 million or 7.5 million metric tonnes annually, whichever is lower, starting on Jan. 1. Over the first 10 months of this year China has imported 18.6 million tonnes of coal from North Korea, up almost 13 percent from a year ago.

Coal is particularly important to the economic health of North Korea because it is one of its only sources of hard currency and its largest single export item. North Korea would also be banned from exporting copper, nickel, silver and zinc.

The draft resolution would prohibit the export of North Korean helicopters, vessels and statues, banning deals similar to multibillion-dollar contracts that Pyongyang had signed to build large statues in some African countries.

It calls on U.N. states to reduce the number of staff at North Korea's foreign missions and requires countries to limit the number of bank accounts to one per North Korean diplomatic mission amid worries that Pyongyang had used its diplomats and foreign missions to engage in illicit activities.

The draft text says that countries can inspect the personal luggage of individuals entering or leaving North Korea as it could be a way to transport banned items.

The Security Council would blacklist a further 11 individuals, including people who have served as ambassadors to Egypt and Myanmar, and 10 entities, subjecting them to a global travel ban and asset freeze for their role in the North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

The sale or transfer of luxury items to North Korea has long been banned by the Security Council and the draft resolution adds rugs or tapestries worth more than $500 and porcelain or bone china tableware valued at more than $100 to the list.

(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-government-idUSKBN13N1ZQ

WORLD NEWS | Mon Nov 28, 2016 | 2:00pm EST

Yemen's Houthis form government in setback to peace process

Yemen's armed Houthi movement and its political allies formed a new government on Monday, the Houthi-run state news agency Saba reported, in what appeared a blow to U.N.-backed efforts to end 20 months of war in the country.

Diplomats had hoped the Houthis, who control the capital Sanaa, would hold off on putting together a cabinet of their loyalists and instead form a unity government with their Yemeni foes, whom they pushed into Saudi exile.

The Houthis, who control territory with more than half of Yemen's population, previously said forming a government with their allies did not mean abandoning the U.N.-sponsored peace process.

The flight of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, the internationally recognized president, triggered military intervention by a coalition led Saudi Arabia that has carried out thousands of air strikes on the Houthis but failed to dislodge them from Sanaa.

Having caused the deaths of at least 10,000 people and unleashed a humanitarian crisis, the Arabian Peninsula conflict has continued despite several U.N.-backed ceasefires and peace efforts by Western and U.N. diplomats.

The Houthis this month agreed to a U.N. plan which required them to hand in heavy weapons and pull out of main cities in exchange for participating in a unity government with Hadi, who rejected the proposal, saying he was the legitimate president.

Making common cause with the party of powerful ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Iran-allied Houthis previously ruled the parts of Yemen they controlled through a "Supreme Political Council", a body which announced the new government.

"The meeting stressed that the government, which was formed amid the difficult conditions experienced by the country, is tasked with putting in order the internal situation and confronting the (Saudi) aggression," Saba reported.

"The Council noted that this comes amid the intransigence of the aggression and its (Yemeni) mercenaries to move within the framework of a national solution ... to spare the country further bloodshed and destruction."

A spokesman for the exiled Hadi government did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. There was no immediate United Nations comment.

(Reporting By Mohammed Ghobari; writing by Noah Browning; editing by Mark Heinrich)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Active shooter reported on Ohio State campus
Started by eXe‎, Today 07:19 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...e-shooter-reported-on-Ohio-State-campus/page4

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.wptv.com/news/national/active-shooter-reported-at-ohio-state-university

Police ID Ohio State attacker who injured 11
Officer who killed supsect a 2-year veteran

Associated Press, Scripps National Desk
10:07 AM, Nov 28, 2016
51 mins ago

Videos

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — A Somali-born college student plowed his car into a group of pedestrians at Ohio State University and began stabbing people with a butcher knife Monday before he was shot to death by a police officer. Police said they are investigating whether it was a terrorist attack.
Eleven people were hurt, one critically.

The attacker was identified as Ohio State student Abdul Razak Ali Artan. He was born in Somalia and was a legal permanent resident of the U.S., according to a U.S. official who wasn't authorized to discuss the case and spoke on condition of anonymity.
The FBI joined the investigation.

RELATED LINKS:

Was Ohio State attack motivated by terror?
The nation reacts to incident at Ohio State
Ohio State officer praised by officials for ending attack
Suspect in Ohio State attack discussed portrayal of Muslims in newspaper feature.

The details emerged after a morning of confusion and conflicting reports that began with the university issuing a series of tweets warning that there was an "active shooter" on campus near the engineering building and that students should "run, hide, fight." The warning was apparently prompted by what turned out to be police gunfire.

Numerous police vehicles and ambulances converged on the 60,000-student campus, and authorities blocked off roads. Students barricaded themselves inside offices and classrooms, piling chairs and desks in front of doors.

Ohio State Police Chief Craig Stone said that the assailant deliberately drove over a curb outside a classroom building and then got out and began attacking people with the knife. A campus officer who happened to be nearby because of a gas leak arrived on the scene and shot the driver in less than a minute, Stone said.

Angshuman Kapil, a graduate student, was outside the building when the car barreled onto the sidewalk.

"It just hit everybody who was in front," he said. "After that everybody was shouting, 'Run! Run! Run!'"

Student Martin Schneider said he heard the car's engine revving.

"I thought it was an accident initially until I saw the guy come out with a knife," Schneider said, adding that the man didn't say anything when he got out.

Most of the injured were hurt by the car, and at least two were stabbed, officials said. One had a fractured skull.

Asked at a news conference whether authorities were considering the possibility it was a terrorist act, Columbus Police Chief Kim Jacobs said: "I think we have to consider that it is."

Surveillance photos showed Artan in the car by himself just before the attack, but investigators were looking into whether anyone else was involved, the campus police chief said.

In recent months, federal law enforcement officials have raised concerns about online extremist propaganda that encourages knife and car attacks, which are easier to pull off than bombings.

The Islamic State group has urged sympathizers online to carry out attacks in their home countries with whatever weapons are available to them.

In September, a 20-year-old Somali-American stabbed 10 people at a St. Cloud, Minnesota, shopping mall before being shot to death by an off-duty officer. Authorities said he asked some of his victims if they were Muslim. In the past few years, London and other cities abroad have also seen knife attacks blamed on extremists.

The shelter-in-place warning at Ohio State was lifted and the campus declared secure after about an hour and a half, after police concluded there was no second attacker, as rumored.

The attack came as students were returning to classes following the Thanksgiving holiday break and Ohio State's football victory over rival Michigan that brought more than 100,000 fans to campus on Saturday.

Rachel LeMaster, who works in the engineering college, said a fire alarm sounded on campus.

"There were several moments of chaos," she said. "We barricaded ourselves like we're supposed to since it was right outside our door and just hunkered down."

LeMaster said she and others were eventually led outside the building and she saw a body on the ground.

Classes were canceled for the rest of the day.

The officer who gunned the attacker down was identified as 28-year-old Alan Horujko, a nearly two-year member of the force.

The initial tweet from the university's emergency management department went out around 10 a.m. and said: "Buckeye Alert: Active Shooter on campus. Run Hide Fight. Watts Hall. 19th and College."

Ohio State President Michael Drake said the active-shooter warning was issued after shots were heard on campus.

"Run, hide, fight" is standard protocol for active shooter situations. It means: Run, evacuate if possible; hide, get silently out of view; or fight, as a last resort, take action to disrupt or incapacitate the shooter if your life is in imminent danger.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/iranian-navy-boat-threatens-u-s-helicopter-n689286

NEWS
NOV 28 2016, 4:55 PM ET

Iranian Navy Boat Threatens U.S. Helicopter

by COURTNEY KUBE

An Iranian Navy boat trained its gun at a passing U.S. military helicopter over the weekend, two senior U.S. military officials told NBC News.

A USS Eisenhower MH-60 Seahawk helicopter was flying ahead of the carrier group as it was sailing out of the Persian Gulf on Saturday when an Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps boat below aimed its mounted gun at the approaching U.S. helicopter.

Neither side fired their weapons during the incident — not even warning shots, officials told NBC News.

The U.S. Navy attempted to communicate with the Iranian Navy but they didn't respond. The Eisenhower has been in the Gulf flying missions for Operations Inherent Resolve in Iraq and Syria.

A U.S. military official in the region called the action "unsafe and unprofessional."

"The air crew didn't necessarily feel threatened but it was unsafe and unprofessional," the official said.

U.S. military craft and Iranian vessels have had previous encounters.

In August a U.S. Navy ship, the USS Squall, fired several warning shots near an Iranian "fast boat" when the craft came dangerously close. That same week, four Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels near the Strait of Hormuz drawing close to the USS Nitze, a guided missile destroyer, despite repeated radio warnings.

President-elect Donald Trump vowed during a campaign rally in Florida in September that, once he is in the Oval Office, such actions would be met with swift retribution.

"With Iran, when they circle our beautiful destroyers with their little boats and they make gestures at our people, that they shouldn't be allowed to make, they will be shot out of the water," Trump promised.
 

Housecarl

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Turkey entered Syria to end al-Assad’s rule - President Erdoğan
Started by Possible Impact‎, Today 07:52 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...l-Assad%92s-rule-President-Erdo%26%23287%3Ban

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Considering that the Japanese could start cranking out LACMs, MRBMs, IRBMs or ICBMs any time they want at literally the drop of a hat, this upgrade and deployment is a "measured" ratcheting up of the situation.....HC

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...ure_of_us-japan_defense_relations_110400.html

Japan's New Missile and the Future of U.S.-Japan Defense Relations

By Ben Wermeling
November 29, 2016

In August, the government of Japan outlined plans to domestically produce a new surface-to-ship missile (SSM). This missile will have a range of 300 kilometers with a planned deployment date of 2023. It is likely that the missile will be deployed to the Miyako and Yaeyama island chains in the southern part of the Okinawa prefecture. From there, the missiles will be able to strike targets approaching the remote Senkaku island chain. These small islands have been a contentious issue in Sino-Japanese relations in recent years, particularly due to recent Chinese encroachments in the area. This deployment appears to be part of a small-scale version of the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) operational concept being developed by the Chinese military, which emphasizes the use of long-range striking power aided by sensors, largely in the form of ballistic and cruise missiles, to hit naval surface forces and fixed targets on land and has caused a great deal of consternation in American military circles. This procurement should provide durable capabilities to defend Japanese territorial claims in the event of a conflict, assuming sensors can maintain coverage of the area around the Senkaku islands.

Trucks with land-based missiles are capable of utilizing the earth’s cover for concealment. They are also physically smaller than ships and aircraft, making them more difficult to locate and destroy when spread throughout the island chain. With this in mind, the deployment of these missiles could deny China the ability to maintain ships near the Senkaku islands in the event of a conflict or at least make it prohibitively expensive.

Since World War II, Japan has not purchased much in the way of “offensive” weaponry that could be used to project force. The procurement of a new SSM is not a major departure from this trend, though. Japan already deploys land-based missiles in the region with ranges of 200 km. It is possible that these new missiles could be mounted on aircraft or ships to increase force-projection capabilities, but the platforms carrying the missiles would be vulnerable to attack while attempting to get in range for a missile launch, assuming an adversary with comparable missiles.

By itself, the SSM procurement does not radically alter the nature of the U.S.-Japan military alliance. Japan could use the SSM to augment its ability to defend or deter aggressive behavior around the Senkaku islands in a minor conflict, meaning the United States would not need to be as involved in the issue. Japan could also use the missiles as part of a broader, high-intensity counter A2/AD campaign against China. Such a conflict appears unlikely, but the U.S. military has taken interest in the threat A2/AD could pose in the western Pacific.

What impact the missiles would have in such a war is dependent on what operational concept is decided upon to counter A2/AD. The U.S. military has historically favored offensive operations. When combined with the potential to procure more advanced weaponry, it is not surprising that the American military is leaning toward the aggressive Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons (JAM-GC) (formerly referred to as the Air/Sea Battle concept) to counter Chinese A2/AD capabilities. JAM-GC Battle plans to destroy the Chinese weapon systems that make it possible to conduct an A2/AD campaign. The Japanese missile’s limited range means it cannot strike missile launchers or other targets on the Chinese mainland that enable A2/AD.

Other options with less ambitious objectives have been proposed to counter A2/AD. They primarily fall under the categories of denying China the area it seeks to deny others or using a blockade to coerce China into halting aggressive actions. The greater coverage of the SSMs compared to the ones currently deployed would strengthen the capabilities of the U.S. military and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to deny China access to its near seas on the margin. Alternatively, SSMs could be stationed on the Japanese islands south of Kyushu to assist in a coercive blockade of China. In sum, the deployment would do little to defeat China’s A2/AD threat directly, but could moderately enhance indirect counter moves.

Although the SSM being planned does not radically alter the military dynamics of East Asia, it is possible that Japan could acquire more aggressive weaponry in the future. For instance, the Japanese government could build on the technology to create a new missile with greater range. Such a weapon would expand Japan’s own A2/AD capabilities while allowing the country to take a greater role in providing for its own security.

A policy like this could occur if the United States presses Japan to play a greater role in an aggressive A2/AD campaign. Another way Japan could be motivated to acquire more force projection abilities would be if Tokyo perceived its interests were threatened even with American security guarantees. Plans to procure more offensive weapons could be politically constrained by the non-interventionist views many Japanese citizens hold.

If Japan increased its offensive capability due to such pressures, it could be a double-edged sword for the United States. On the one hand, Americans have often called for Japan to take a more prominent role in defending itself, including President-elect Donald Trump. Doing so could be a balance against China’s growing military capabilities. It would also ease the defense burden of the United States in East Asia. On the other hand, Japan would have greater capability to assert its own interests independent of American wishes. In a heated confrontation over the Senkaku islands dispute, for example, Tokyo could be more willing than Washington to take quick action. The United States has reassured Japan that it would defend the islands; however, Tokyo may wish for more prompt and aggressive responses than Washington would desire. Determining the optimal degree of expanded military capabilities of its longtime ally will thus be a challenge for the United States.

Ben Wermeling is a recent graduate of George Washington University's graduate program in security studies and a defense policy researcher.
 
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Housecarl

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Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...s_in_russias_approach_to_conflict_110404.html

Nuclear Weapons in Russia’s Approach to Conflict

By Dave Johnson
November 29, 2016

President Putin has moved nuclear weapons to the foreground of the European security landscape. New risks and dangers arise from the apparent coupling of nuclear weapons capabilities with Moscow’s revanchist and irredentist foreign and defence policies toward its neighbours.

Nuclear weapons are the central feature and capstone capability in Russia’s evolving concept of strategic deterrence and are important tools for achieving Russia’s geopolitical aims. Russian thinking on the role and place of nuclear weapons in upholding national security and in achieving strategic aims is reflected in military policy, force structure and posture, and exercises and operations. Russia’s political and military leaders are not only reconceptualising the role of nuclear weapons. They are also building the military capabilities that can credibly threaten the calibrated employment of nuclear weapons for deterrence, de-escalation and warfighting from the regional to large-scale and global levels of conflict. New and still developing concepts for the employment of conventional long-range precision weapons in tandem with nuclear weapons for regional deterrence and containment of local and regional conflicts add volatility to the regional tensions and uncertainties created by recent Russian aggression.

Russia’s reliance upon integrated conventional and nuclear capabilities in reasserting its influence in its perceived sphere of special interest, intended to contain conflicts at a manageable level, could actually increase the risk of the potential employment of nuclear weapons. NATO nations collectively, and the three NATO nuclear powers (Great Britain, France, and the United States) individually, have recognized this new reality and have begun to adapt to it. In that context, the aim of this paper is to elaborate a clearer understanding of the place and role of nuclear weapons in Russia’s approach to conflict, based on nuclear-related policy statements and military-theoretical writing, force structure and posture choices, and exercises and operations. If the contours of the Russian side of this new deterrence dynamic are correctly recognised and assessed, including its nuclear dimension, its challenges could be manageable in a deterrence framework tailored by NATO and individual Allies for Europe’s 21st Century circumstances.

Download the Full Report PDF

This article appeared originally at Édité et diffusé par la Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
 

Housecarl

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http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/is-vietnam-reigniting-a-fire-in-the-south-china-sea/

Is Vietnam Reigniting a Fire in the South China Sea?

Hanoi is starting to feel more and more isolated as its regional neighbors reconcile with China.

By Nguyen Quoc-Thanh
November 29, 2016

With Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s decision to reset ties with China, and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak’s decision to put his country in the Chinese orbit, the situation all around Vietnam is evolving very rapidly. China also signed agreements for the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road with Cambodia in mid-October, not to mention their joint military exercise scheduled for December. Together, these rapprochements are seen by the Vietnamese as coming at the expense of their country, which is now “isolated” by land and sea.

Things have gotten worse and worse for Hanoi only five months after The Hague international tribunal’s verdict; the latest developments in the South China Sea (SCS) have shifted in Beijing’s favor. One by one, Vietnam’s neighbors have looked toward China and now seek conciliation. The legacy of U.S. President Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia” seems distant, especially since President-elect Donald Trump has declared his intention to cut back the U.S. role as “world policeman.” At this time, no one can predict anything about Washington’s future role in Asia. Trump criticized Obama’s Asia policy during his campaign and now, Asian leaders are still waiting to see the U.S roadmap for the region under the next president. Will Trump lead America to an isolationist foreign policy? A year ago, Harry Kazianis imagined the consequences for U.S allies if America walked away from Asia. This scenario seems now potentially realistic.

In this context, it seems that Vietnam prefers to anticipate and plan to protect itself, including militarily. But by extending an airplane runway and building hangars for housing combat aircraft in the Spratly Islands, Vietnam has raised tensions. In August, the country already deployed rocket launchers to its bases in the SCS. Is such an offensive stance justifiable?

In the past years, Vietnam has notably increased its military spending. The trauma caused by the battle of the Paracel Islands in 1974, when ships of the People’s Republic of China sunk those of the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam), runs deep. The Vietnamese requested assistance from the U.S Seventh Fleet but their request was denied. As Vietnam doesn’t want to repeat the experience of relying on foreign help that may not come, the country has forged a defensive army for deterrence. For months, Hanoi has waited for a strong signal from Washington, especially since the lifting of arms embargo. But with the end of Obama’s presidency and, most likely, the end of his “pivot to Asia policy,” the future is uncertain for Vietnam, even if the partnership between U.S and Vietnam remains strong.

Under a Trump presidency, U.S. withdrawal from Asia is an unlikely but possible scenario. The European Union could have helped to disentangle regional conflicts in Washington’s stead, but European unity has been wracked since the Brexit – not to mention domestic factors such as the coming French presidential election and the next German federal election. In any case, Europe is busy dealing with tension over migrants and the Syrian civil war issue.

Help will not come from the outside and all indications are that the Vietnamese are now on their own. The solution could have been ASEAN unity but it has shattered lately, most recently during the 49th ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting. Together, these factors contribute to increase Vietnam’s sense of insecurity. “We must react now or later would be too late,” said an officer of Vietnam People’s Navy.

The 1974 battle resulted in Chinese control of the entire Paracel Islands group and Vietnam clearly does not want history to repeat itself in the Spratly archipelago. A list of national possessions in the Spratly archipelago has been published on former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s website. It is a way of showing that Vietnam is clearly determined to defend its claims.

No country in Southeast Asia knows China as well as Vietnam, which shares both maritime and land frontiers with this giant neighbor. China rising power in Asia is a worrying issue for Hanoi, and not even bilateral dialogues with Beijing have succeeded in reassuring the Vietnamese. For 2015, Vietnam’s defense budget was $5 billion and it may rise again as long as the Vietnamese feel insecure.

At the 8th SCS International Conference in Nha Trang, participants insisted on respect for international law and their desire for peace. But even with Duterte’s apparent allegiance to China, peace remains precarious in the South China Sea. A fire can reignite at any time with just a spark.

Nguyen Quoc-Thanh holds a Ph.D. in Maritime Studies. IrAsia, Aix-Marseille University.
 

Housecarl

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Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/11/trump-radical-islam/508331/

The Coming War on ‘Radical Islam’

How Trump’s government could change America’s approach to terrorism

URI FRIEDMAN 7:00 AM ET

In the fall of 1990—around the time U.S. troops arrived in Saudi Arabia, enraging Osama bin Laden—the historian Bernard Lewis sounded an alarm in The Atlantic about brewing anti-Americanism in the Muslim world. “[W]e are facing a mood and a movement far transcending the level of issues and policies and the governments that pursue them,” he wrote. “This is no less than a clash of civilizations—the perhaps irrational but surely historic reaction of an ancient rival against our Judeo-Christian heritage, our secular present, and the worldwide expansion of both. It is crucially important that we on our side should not be provoked into an equally historic but also equally irrational reaction against that rival.”

America’s two post-9/11 presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, attempted a balancing act: combatting jihadist terrorism while seeking to avoid the impression that the Western and Muslim worlds were engaged in the kind of clash Lewis described.

Donald Trump may soon steer the government in a different direction. Several of the president-elect’s national-security appointees have argued that the United States is at war with “radical Islamic terrorism,” or “radical Islam,” or something broader still, such as “Islamism.” They have described this war as a primarily ideological struggle to preserve Western civilization, like the wars against Nazism and communism. The war is not confined to extremist Sunni Muslims or extremist Shia Muslims; the Islamic State and the Islamic Republic of Iran are seen as two sides of the same coin. Notably, these appointees have put forth this sweeping vision before taking charge of the nation’s security—before a terrorist attack has occurred on their watch.

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Bush certainly described his War on Terror in ways that evoked a civilizational clash, pitting freedom-lovers against the totalitarian successors of the Nazis and communists. But he emphasized that Islam was not one of the clashing sides—that the terrorists had perverted the “peaceful teachings of Islam.” “Some call this evil Islamic radicalism,” he said in 2005. “Others militant jihadism. Still others Islamo-fascism. Whatever it’s called, this ideology is very different from the religion of Islam.”

Barack Obama has downgraded Bush’s War to a fight, and the enemy from Terror to specific terrorist groups. He rejects the notion of a clash of civilizations, both because he thinks it overestimates the threat of terrorism to the United States and because he doesn’t want to affirm the jihadists’ narrative of a struggle between Islam and infidels in the West. When a U.S. president uses “loose language that appears to pose a civilizational conflict between the West and Islam, or the modern world and Islam, then we make it harder, not easier, for our friends and allies and ordinary people to resist and push back against the worst impulses inside the Muslim world,” Obama told The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg.

Obama’s approach has produced a backlash that may shape policy in a Trump administration. For years now, Republicans have condemned Obama’s avoidance of the term “radical Islam,” arguing that it represents the president’s failure to properly assess and address the threat. Radical Islam, Obama’s critics contend, is what it sounds like: radicalism rooted in the religion of Islam. Where Obama sees “violent extremism,” his critics see militant religiosity. Where Obama sees a clash within Islamic civilization—between a tiny faction of fanatics and the vast majority of Muslims—his critics see a clash between Western civilization and a small yet significant segment of the Muslim world. Where Obama sees a weak enemy that is getting weaker, his critics see a strong enemy that is getting stronger. Where Obama sees limits to what the U.S. can do on its own to eradicate radical interpretations of Islam, his critics see an appalling lack of effort by the U.S. government. Where Obama sees a serious but manageable national-security threat, his critics see an ideological and civilizational challenge to the free world.

Trump has gone further than many other Republican leaders in advancing the counterargument to Obama—not just in his proposed policies, like banning or severely restricting Muslim immigration to the United States, but also in his rhetoric. “I think Islam hates us,” Trump said earlier this year. Asked if he was referring to “radical Islam,” he responded, “It’s radical, but it’s very hard to define. It’s very hard to separate. Because you don’t know who’s who.”

Several members of Trump’s emerging team have described the threat in similarly stark and broad ways. “We’re in a world war against a messianic mass movement of evil people, most of them inspired by a totalitarian ideology: Radical Islam. But we are not permitted to speak or write those two words, which is potentially fatal to our culture,” writes Michael Flynn, Trump’s pick for national-security adviser, in a book he published this summer with the conservative writer Michael Ledeen.

“I don’t believe all cultures are morally equivalent, and I think the West, and especially America, is far more civilized, far more ethical and moral, than the system our main enemies want to impose on us,” Flynn adds.

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“Not all the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims are extremists or terrorists. Not by a long shot,” wrote Flynn’s incoming deputy, K.T. McFarland, in March. “But even if just 10 percent of 1 percent are radicalized, that’s a staggering 1.6 million people bent on destroying Western civilization and the values we hold dear. The fascists wanted to control the world. So did the communists. But the Islamists want to brutally kill a significant percentage of the world—and that is anyone standing in the way of their end-times caliphate.” Jeff Sessions, Trump’s choice for attorney general, has invoked America’s “containment” strategy during the Cold War, noting that there “can be no compromise with this form of radical Islam.”

As the head of Breitbart News, Steve Bannon hosted a radio show featuring numerous guests who claimed that radical Muslim ideologues were clandestinely infiltrating the U.S. government and trying to extend their belief system across the country. (Flynn has similarly warned, falsely, that Islamic Sharia law is encroaching on the U.S. legal system.) In a 2014 speech to the Human Dignity Institute in the Vatican, Bannon, who will be Trump’s chief strategist in the White House, characterized the current war against “jihadist Islamic fascism” as the latest stage of an existential, centuries-old struggle between the Judeo-Christian West and the Islamic world:

If you look back at the long history of the Judeo-Christian West struggle against Islam, I believe that our forefathers kept their stance, and I think they did the right thing. I think they kept it out of the world, whether it was at Vienna [presumably during the Battle of Vienna in 1683], or Tours [presumably during the Battle of Tours in 732], or other places. … We’re in a war of immense proportions. It’s very easy to play to our baser instincts, and we can’t do that. But our forefathers didn’t do it either. And they were able to stave this off, and they were able to defeat it, and they were able to bequeath to us a church and a civilization that really is the flower of mankind...
Mike Pompeo, the Kansas congressman who Trump has tapped as his CIA director, has described the clash in more nuanced terms, stressing that Islam should not be equated with extremism. But he nevertheless claims that Obama has grossly underestimated the danger of jihadism. “This administration will go down in history as having, for the first time, put America in a place, from a national-security perspective, that it has not found itself [in] in anyone’s lifetime in this room,” he said in a 2015 speech to an audience in Wichita that included many people who clearly were alive during the nuclear brinksmanship of the Cold War. “The line is drawn not between faith but between extremists, and those who accept modernity and those who are barbarians. We should understand that line, and we should never be fearful to walk right up to the line, find those on the other side, and crush them.”

Obama’s policies are misguided because he misunderstands the essence of the jihadist threat, Trump’s advisers argue. This is why Flynn, for example, has placed such importance on the words “radical Islam.” They are meant to indicate that many leaders of groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda are genuine ideologues, adherents to the fundamentalist Salafi strain of Islam. If these leaders are thought of merely as violent nihilists to be bombed, those who are taken out will inevitably be replaced by other true believers, and the war will never end.

Flynn arrived at these conclusions after interrogating terrorist suspects in Iraq and Afghanistan as an intelligence officer in Joint Special Operations Command. As he told James Kitfield in October:

Over the course of all those interrogations, I concluded that “core Al Qaeda” wasn’t actually comprised of human beings, but rather it was an ideology with a particular version of Islam at its center. More than a religion, this ideology encompasses a political belief system, because its adherents want to rule things—whether it’s a village, a city, a region or an entire “caliphate.” And to achieve that goal, they are willing to use extreme violence. The religious nature of that threat makes it very hard for Americans to come to grips with.
Framing the fight as an ideological struggle, however, tends to blur the distinction between radical Islam, the political movement known as Islamism, and the religion of Islam. Consider this bewildering exchange between Flynn and the journalist Mehdi Hasan in January:

Flynn: We are at war with a radical component of Islam. … Islam is a political ideology based on a religion.

Hasan: Islam is?

Flynn: That’s what I believe and that’s how I like to—

Hasan: Sorry, do you mean Islamism? Or Islam? Sorry, I’m confused here.

Flynn: Islamism. Islamism, probably better—

Hasan: OK, you’re not saying the religion of Islam is a political ideology?

Flynn: A political ideology based on a religion.
The ideological frame also invites a response that goes well beyond military tactics like drone warfare and air strikes, which Flynn argues Obama has relied on too heavily. Flynn has called for Cold War-like information campaigns that promote Western values and expose “the failures” of radical Islam. Pompeo, an evangelical Christian, has argued that more Muslim leaders need to speak out against terrorism in the name of Islam, noting that Protestant leaders have condemned the hateful actions of the Westboro Baptist Church in his state. “There is a battle of interpretation within Islam,” he’s said. “It’s not enough to deny responsibility, saying one’s own interpretation doesn’t support terrorism. Moderate imams must strive to ensure that no Muslim finds solace for terrorism in the Koran.”

Flynn has also urged the U.S. government to help Middle Eastern countries overhaul their economies and develop energy sources other than oil, in an effort to undermine the socioeconomic grievances that in his view make jihadist groups appealing to young people. When the journalist Fareed Zakaria pointed out that this would require a huge U.S. investment of time and resources that might be disproportionate to the actual threat, Flynn disagreed. “There was a cost, post-World War II, called the Marshall Plan for Europe,” he said. “And Europe is doing pretty darn good.”

Treating radical Islam as a monolithic ideology tends to swell the ranks of enemy fighters as well. During an appearance on The Steve Malzberg Show, for instance, Pompeo offered an expansive definition of the threat facing the United States in Syria: “We got to do it all. [Syrian President Bashar] Assad is a tool of Iran and so to the extent we’re not prepared to push back on Iran in the form of Assad we’re making mistakes. We ought to do that, but it’s not just ISIS either: al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda. These are all the same two sides of the terror coin and we got to go crush them all.”

“I concluded that ‘core al-Qaeda’ wasn’t actually comprised of human beings. Rather, it was an ideology.”

Many of Trump’s appointees have staked out hardline positions against Iran, which the U.S. government has labeled the world’s top state supporter of terrorism, and heavily criticized the agreement brokered by the Obama administration to restrict the Iranian nuclear program. Pompeo has suggested that Iran’s brand of Shia radicalism is currently a greater challenge to the United States than ISIS’s brand of Sunni radicalism. “At the root of most of the things you see today [in the Middle East] is Iran,” he has said.

When radical Islam is interpreted as a fundamentally anti-American ideology, the ranks of the enemy can also grow to include other anti-American entities. “We’re in a global war, facing an enemy alliance that runs from Pyongyang, North Korea, to Havana, Cuba, and Caracas, Venezuela,” Flynn wrote this summer, in an echo of George W. Bush’s “axis of evil” formulation. “Along the way, the alliance picks up radical Muslim countries and organizations such as Iran, al Qaeda, the Taliban and Islamic State. … If our leaders were interested in winning, they would have to design a strategy to destroy this global enemy. But they don’t see the global war. Instead, they timidly nibble around the edges of the battlefields from Africa to the Middle East, and act as if each fight, whether in Syria, Iraq, Nigeria, Libya or Afghanistan, can be peacefully resolved by diplomatic effort.” (When Bloomberg’s Eli Lake asked how ISIS, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela could all possibly be in alliance, Flynn responded, “It was a simpler way to explain the relationships.”)

Traditional U.S. alliances are liable to be reshuffled as well. Trump wants to partner with Russia to fight ISIS, and both Flynn and Pompeo have praised Egypt’s authoritarian leader, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, for urging a “religious revolution” to purge Islam of its radical elements. “I’ve met President Sisi,” Pompeo said during his 2015 speech. “I’ll say it this way: You don’t find many Thomas Jeffersons over there. Once you accept that … the line needs to be drawn [between] those who are on the side of extremism and those who are fighting against it, of whatever faith we may find them.” Flynn and Pompeo want the U.S. government to amplify Muslim voices like Sisi’s, but their rhetoric on radical Islam also has the potential to alienate Muslim allies.

The ideological war could spur the Trump administration to increase the government’s surveillance powers. “My judgment is that we need to go well past what is violent extremism,” Pompeo said in Wichita. “If you are communicating with, talking to, facilitating, providing resources and money for, educating, training, helping, assisting, and you are part of [a jihadist] network, you are someone who America has every right and indeed an obligation to pull from the streets. We have deep constitutional commitments to what we allow people to do. You all want to be able to talk about your faith. I talk about mine all the time. I want everyone to be able to do that. But when you begin to engage with networks around the world that are part of jihadist organizations, you are no longer talking about your faith but putting people in my neighborhood at risk.”

It could also lead to more intensive vetting of immigrants from Muslim countries. “Questions can be asked: Do you believe in religious freedom, do you believe in Sharia law or the Constitution, and do you respect minorities such as women and gays?” Sessions told The American Thinker in June. “We are not required to admit people if their philosophies or principles are contrary to the Constitution. We have to understand that most Muslims do not adhere to this extreme ideology, but there is nothing wrong to refuse admittance to those who distance themselves from our values.”

Relative to the neoconservatives in George W. Bush’s administration, Trump and his advisers are less inclined to grand visions of nation-building and democracy-promotion overseas. But they endorse Bush-like shows of military force. Jihadist groups “must be denied safe havens, and countries that shelter them have to be issued a brutal choice: either eliminate the Radical Islamists or you risk direct attack yourselves,” Flynn writes.

“[T]he religious and political transformation of Europe that we call the Reformation entailed hundreds of years of very bloody fighting,” he adds. “The world badly needs an Islamic Reformation, and we should not be surprised if violence is involved.”

“The line is very clear,” Pompeo noted in Wichita, channeling Bush. “Are you with us or against us? If you’re with us: God bless you, Godspeed, let’s go get ’em. And if you’re against us: Godspeed, I have a missile that is looking for you.”

As Flynn, Pompeo, and the others tell it, Obama’s refusal to acknowledge radical Islam has kept him from implementing the policies they’re suggesting. But the great irony is that Obama has implemented many of those policies. Obama has launched information campaigns to discredit ISIS and enlisted Middle Eastern countries in the battle against jihadism. He has encouraged Muslims to condemn the extremists in their midst and subjected Syrian refugees to what Trump might call “extreme vetting.” He has relied on government surveillance to fight terrorism, neutralized the most alarming aspect of the threat posed by Iran, and built a reputation as a formidable terrorist hunter by using military force against jihadist leaders and operatives in a number of countries.

But even if U.S. counterterrorism policies don’t dramatically change during Trump’s presidency, the rhetoric probably will. U.S. officials will likely describe the fight against terrorism as an epic struggle, and trace the ideological roots of that terrorism to Islam and a political-religious movement within the faith that endangers Western civilization. Bush and Obama stayed away from that rhetoric in part because of their assessments of the jihadist threat. But they also did so because they worried that bolstering the clash-of-civilizations narrative would undermine their efforts to eliminate that threat. The signs so far suggest that Trump, and many of his advisers, do not share that concern.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Uri Friedman
URI FRIEDMAN is a staff writer at The Atlantic, where he covers global affairs.
 

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Sweden, Finland & Norway Deepen Defense Ties with the West

NOVEMBER 30, 2016 | KAITLIN LAVINDER

Sweden, Finland, and Norway (the only NATO member of the three) are inching closer to the western sphere of defense. Russian incursions over the past few years – from Georgia in 2008 to Ukraine in 2014 – and the need to bolster overall defense in response to an increasingly unstable security environment in Europe have prompted the move.

This month, a senior Russian lawmaker said Russia would move its S-400 anti-aircraft missiles into Kaliningrad, a Russian territory sandwiched in between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea, opposite Sweden’s southern tip. Russia has also reportedly moved some of its nuclear-capable Iskander short-range ballistic missiles into Kaliningrad. Last month, Russian media claimed Russia is adding warships armed with long-range cruise missiles to its Baltic Fleet.

Sweden has reported multiple air violations by Russia, and Finland suspects Russian SU-27 fighter jets violated its airspace on two separate occasions in October.

Yet Sigurd Neubauer tells The Cipher Brief, “They [Sweden and Finland] are not going to radically change their relationship with the Russians. Rather, their movement toward the U.S. and NATO is based on the decision to upgrade their own defense capabilities. Some of today’s global insecurity is really impacting the security of these countries. Cross-border terrorism, extremism, and migration are real threats.”

Neubauer, who is from Norway and now works at a defense consultancy in the Washington-area, adds, “Finland and Sweden are unable to manage new cross boundary threats by themselves. They need a wide array of strong partners, and that comes in the form of NATO.”

In May, Sweden granted NATO more access to conduct training exercises. A month later the Swedes signed a new defense cooperation agreement with the United States, declaring, “Transatlantic cooperation is crucial for U.S. and European security […] The security challenges are greater and more complex than in decades.” The stated objectives are to enhance interoperability, strengthen capabilities through training and exercises, deepen armament cooperation, advance cooperation on R&D, and meet common challenges in multinational operations. Sweden and the United Kingdom also signed a similar agreement.

Finland has been mulling over NATO membership for some time. In the Finnish government’s recent defense policy review and on the Finnish Ministry of Defense website, the option to join NATO clearly remains on the table. Just last month, Finland signed a bilateral defense cooperation pact with the U.S. – much like the Swedish-U.S. one – that seeks to deepen ties through information exchange, joint R&D in cyber defense, and joint training. It also calls for cooperation in ship building, nuclear defense, and developing technologies for the Arctic. Finland signed a similar pact with the UK in July.

Norway is also strengthening its already strong ties with NATO and the U.S., partially due to Russia’s latest adventurism. In the Norwegian government’s latest Long Term Defense Plan, published in June, it is acknowledged that “Even though Russia does not constitute a military threat to Norway, the combination of military modernization and the will to exert influence through military power place Russia as a central factor in Norwegian defense planning. […] we cannot rule out the possibility that Russia in a given situation will consider the use of military force to be a relevant tool.”

Eight years ago, Russia considered military force a handy tool when it moved troops into Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia provinces, two breakaway territories that Russia recognizes as independent. Just two years ago, Russia used military force to invade Ukraine and annex the country’s southern peninsula, Crimea, which sits on the Black Sea’s northern coast.

As part of a Black Sea Rotational Force that bases U.S. troops with NATO partners, Norway is hosting around 330 U.S. marines at its Vaernes Air Station in January 2017. This builds on a renewal of the 2005 Oslo-Washington agreement, Marine Corps Prepositioning Program-Norway. In 2018, Norway will host NATO’s massive Trident Juncture exercise, with some 25,000 soldiers participating.

The deepening defense ties between the three largest Nordic countries and the West could, on the surface, provoke Russia. Olga Oliker, Senior Advisor and Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), explains to The Cipher Brief, “It’s an argument the Russians try to make. But if the Russians have no intention of any sort of aggressive action, then how is defensive cooperation between countries that generally have good relations and that are aligned – and, in one case, allied – in any way provocative?”

Moreover, a Trump presidency could ease tensions if a policy of detente with Russia is enacted. “The Nordic countries will be able to continue their military operations, and they will not be used as a pretext by the Russians to get back at Washington,” says Neubauer.

This, however, may be wishful thinking. The Nordic countries’ shift west is certainly an effort to enhance overall security in an increasingly insecure world. But at the same time, Russia’s actions have abetted global insecurity. Sweden, Finland, and Norway are closely watching their eastern neighbor.

Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.
 

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Air Force: Hypersonic Missiles From China, Russia Pose Growing Danger to U.S.

U.S. falling behind in race for high-speed maneuvering weapons

BY: Bill Gertz
November 30, 2016 5:00 am

The United States is vulnerable to future attack by hypersonic missiles from China and Russia and is falling behind in the technology race to develop both defensive and offensive high-speed maneuvering arms, according to a new Air Force study.

“The People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation are already flight-testing high-speed maneuvering weapons (HSMWs) that may endanger both forward deployed U.S. forces and even the continental United States itself,” an executive summary of the report says.

“These weapons appear to operate in regimes of speed and altitude, with maneuverability that could frustrate existing missile defense constructs and weapon capabilities.”

Hypersonic missiles are ultra-high speed weapons that travel along the edge of the earth’s atmosphere at speeds above Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound. The missiles also can maneuver to avoid current missile defenses—all of which were developed to hit ballistic missiles with predictable flight paths.

The unclassified summary of the report, “A Threat to America’s Global Vigilance, Reach, and Power: High-Speed, Maneuvering Weapons,” was produced by a blue-ribbon panel of experts for Air Force Studies Board at the National Academies of Science. The summary was made public earlier this month.

It is the first U.S. military study to sound the alarm about an arms race quietly underway for several years to develop hypersonic missiles for both strategic nuclear weapons and conventional rapid strike systems.

Mark J. Lewis, chairman of the panel that produced the report, said the panel concluded that as a result of new hypersonic missiles from Russia and China “the United States may be facing a threat from a new class of weapons that will effectively combine speed, maneuverability, and altitude in ways that could challenge this nation’s tenets of global vigilance, reach, and power.”

“Offense and defense are two sides of the same coin; as in the days of the Cold War, the only reliable deterrent to the use of a hypersonic weapon may in fact be the threat of a corresponding hypersonic countermeasure that might hold at risk the very sites from which the adversaries’ hypersonic strike would originate,” Lewis stated in a forward to the summary.

Lewis urged the U.S. government to engage in a major effort to develop both offensive and defensive means to counter high-speed maneuvering weapons. He criticized what he termed the “relatively leisurely pace of disjointed hypersonics technology development” by the Pentagon.

Additionally, foreign nuclear powers are already designing systems that exploit both the organizational disconnects and current technical limits of U.S. defenses, he said.

Highspeed-weapons-graphic.jpg

Operational flight information for high-speed maneuvering weapons / Adapted from Air Combat Command, “Defense Against High Speed Weapons Operational Perspective” presentation
http://s4.freebeacon.com/up/2016/11/Highspeed-weapons-graphic.jpg

According to the study, the new class of high-speed maneuvering weapons operate “at the seams” of U.S. defense and national security systems that make them difficult to counter if the weapons are used against U.S. forces or American territory.

“Put another way, while operational doctrine and command structures adequately address traditional atmospheric air attack or exoatmospheric ballistic missile attack, existing doctrine and organizational structure may not be adequate to address the cross-domain threat posed by [high-speed maneuvering weapons],” the report says.

The report says that some may seek to dismiss the new threat as overblown or non-existent and similar to the Eisenhower-era ballistic missile gap because it has taken decades for the hypersonic missile threat to emerge.

Also, some security analysts say the danger can be mitigated by a “silver bullet” solution, or that the threat will never fully emerge.

“However, the value of extreme speed coupled with maneuverability and altitude constitutes a potential threat to U.S. capabilities that should not be discounted or ignored,” the report warns.

In addition to China and Russia, other states are studying hypersonic weapons, including India.

However, China’s multiple tests of a hypersonic glide vehicle dubbed DF-ZF appear to be the more advanced program. The most recent test took place in April.

A Russian official announced in August that developing hypersonic missiles to defeat U.S. missile defenses is a high priority and that the first weapons could be fielded by 2020.

Russia flight-tested its experimental Yu-71 hypersonic glider in April atop a SS-19 missile.

The Pentagon currently has no well-resourced program to either developing hypersonic missiles or to counter them.

Congress has sought to prod the Missile Defense Agency into focusing more resources on hypersonic missiles.

The defense contractor Lockheed Martin is studying an enhanced version of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense known as THAAD-ER, as a possible defense against hypersonic missiles.

The Air Force study said the combination of high-speeds and maneuverability increases the lethality of missiles that can be used to widen the range of attack options, and the missiles operate both within the atmosphere and in space in ways that make them much less vulnerable of conventional ballistic and cruise missile defenses.

Two methods for reaching hypersonic speeds are through missile-powered gliders and rocket, ramjet, or scramjet powered versions.

Such missiles also can conduct precision strikes at ultra-high speeds that the report says could include fixed or slow-moving targets such as runways, command and control facilities, or ships at sea.

“Both categories of high-speed weapons may be capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads, thereby complicating strategic intent and posture as well as operational identification, response, and engagement,” the report said.

For those that have sought to play down the hypersonic threat, the report warned that “this is no mere tweaking of an existing threat.”

The committee said it was unable to find any formal strategic operational concept or organizational sense of urgency regarding hypersonic weapons, and faulted what the report called a “lack of leadership coordination” at the Pentagon in seeking countermeasures.

An Air Force spokesman said in a statement that hypersonics are “one of the game-changers that provides high-speed options for engaging time-sensitive targets.”

“The Air Force is developing technologies for a high speed strike weapon to enable a responsive, long-range strike capability,” said Capt. Michael Hertzog, the spokesman.

“These weapons can be employed from fighters and bombers and fly at hypersonic speeds to their intended target on the ground.”

The Air Force is developing what it calls a high-speed strike weapon that will travel at hypersonic speeds. The technology involved in the program includes work on explosives with increased effectiveness in the high temperatures produce by hypersonic speed. Other technology involves smaller warheads, advanced materials for lower weight and cost, precision navigation and control, and solid rocket motor technologies to boost performance for air-launched missiles.

The experts on the Air Force study panel included missile specialists from Raytheon, Lockheed, and Boeing, several former Pentagon weapons developers, and Adm. Richard Mies, former commander of the U.S. Strategic Command.
 

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http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ons-on-North-Korea-to-slash-cash-from-exports

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Wed Nov 30, 2016 | 10:41 AM EST

U.N. imposes new sanctions on North Korea to slash cash from exports

By Michelle Nichols | UNITED NATIONS

The United Nations Security Council imposed new sanctions on North Korea on Wednesday aimed at cutting the Asian country's annual export revenue by a quarter in response to Pyongyang's fifth and largest nuclear test in September.

The 15-member council unanimously adopted a resolution to slash North Korea's biggest export, coal, by about 60 percent with an annual sales cap of $400.9 million or 7.5 million metric tonnes, whichever is lower.

The U.S.-drafted resolution also bans copper, nickel, silver and zinc exports and the sale of statues by Pyongyang.

The United States was realistic about what the new sanctions on North Korea - also known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) - will achieve, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, told the council after the vote.

"No resolution in New York will likely, tomorrow, persuade Pyongyang to cease its relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons. But this resolution imposes unprecedented costs on the DPRK regime for defying this Council's demands," she said.

"In total, this resolution will slash by at least $800 million per year the hard currency that the DPRK has to fund its prohibited weapons programs, which constitutes a full 25 percent of the DPRK's entire export revenues," Power said.

North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions since 2006 over its nuclear and ballistic missile tests. It conducted its latest nuclear test on Sept. 9.

"Sanctions are only as effective as their implementation," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told the council. "It is incumbent on all member states of the United Nations to make every effort to ensure that these sanctions are fully implemented."

China, believed to be the only country buying North Korean coal, would slash its imports by some $700 million compared with 2015 sales under the new sanctions, diplomats said.

Over the first 10 months of 2016, China imported 18.6 million tonnes of coal from North Korea, up almost 13 percent from a year earlier. North Korean exports to the end of 2016 will now be capped at $53.5 million, or 1 million metric tonnes.

While China said it was opposed to North Korea's nuclear tests, U.N. Ambassador Liu Jieyi accused the United States and South Korea of intensifying confrontation with North Korea by scaling up military exercises and presence.

He described the planned U.S. deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in South Korea as "neither conducive to the realization of the goal of de-nuclearization of the Korean peninsula nor helpful to the maintenance of peace and stability on the peninsula."

The U.N. resolution blacklisted 11 more individuals, including former ambassadors to Egypt and Myanmar, and 10 entities, subjecting them to a global travel ban and asset freeze for ties to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.

It calls on U.N. states to reduce the number of staff at North Korea's foreign missions and requires countries to limit the number of bank accounts to one per North Korean diplomatic mission amid concerns that Pyongyang had used its diplomats and foreign missions to engage in illicit activities.

(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn and Jonathan Oatis)
 

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Wed Nov 30, 2016 | 11:26 AM EST

Sunni tribesmen battling Islamic State demand federalism in Iraq

By Michael Georgy | SHAYYALAH AL-IMAM, IRAQ

As mortar bombs landed ever closer, Sunni tribal fighters preparing to attack Islamic State seemed more preoccupied by the failures of Iraq's political class than the militants trying to kill them.

The men - and one woman - from the Lions of the Tigris unit gathered on Wednesday in Shayyalah al-Imam, a village near Mosul, with some of their leaders expressing deep distrust of the politicians and saying Iraq's governance must change once Islamic State is defeated.

"Iraq needs serious reforms," said Sheikh Mohammed al-Jibouri, the top commander of the tribesmen. "Only serious reforms will lead to the unity of Iraq."

The unit is part of the Popular Mobilisation Committee, or Hashid Shaabi, which was formed to take on Islamic State after the hardline Sunni group swept through northern Iraq in 2014, facing little resistance from the army.

Hashid Shaabi is mostly comprised of Shi'ites but there are also Sunnis, such as the 655-strong Lions of the Tigris unit.

Their efforts along with government soldiers to capture several villages are part of an offensive to oust Islamic State from its stronghold of Mosul, Iraq's second largest city.

On the surface, their participation lends credibility to the Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad, accused by Sunnis of marginalising their minority community. It denies the accusation.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has been struggling to persuade Sunni tribesmen who helped U.S. forces defeat Al Qaeda during the 2003-11 occupation to join the battle against Islamic State. He has declared a war on corruption in government and army but faces resistance.

The show of force in Shayyalah al-Imam points to progress, with soldiers and tribesmen standing side-by-side.

But some of the men doubted the politicians have the resolve or desire to unify Iraq, gripped by sectarian bloodshed since the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein.

Another tribal commander, Abdel Rahman Ali, even saw Islamic State as part of an elaborate plot to weaken Sunnis, underlining the pervasive mistrust in Iraq.

"Everyone knows Islamic State will be defeated. The conspiracy was designed to hurt Iraq, especially Sunnis, after we liberate Mosul," he told Reuters. "Our own politicians are behind it."

UNITY OR PARTITION

Officials have said the Mosul offensive, the biggest ground operation since 2003, could make or break Iraq. If it inflames sectarian tensions in the predominantly Sunni city, the fighting could lead to Iraq's partition, they warn.

But if the campaign goes smoothly and a new administration in Mosul is seen as non-sectarian, that could help the country to unite.

Ali said federalism modelled on the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq is the best option, even though that has created friction with Baghdad over oil resources.

Like many Sunnis, the minority who dominated under Saddam and then watched the majority Shi'ites rise to power, he is disillusioned with a governing system that allocates posts according to sects. Sunnis themselves are divided and lack a strong leadership, adding to Iraq's fragmentation.

As the men spoke, Islamic State militants fired more mortar bombs towards their unit. One day earlier, suicide bombers attacked the area, a collection of bland cement houses choked by dust, overlooking the desert.

A few hundred metres away, soldiers stood on a rooftop, focused on two suspected car bombs in the distance.

Nashwan Sahn, a Sunni tribesmen who has been fighting Islamist militants in Iraq for 11 years, taking on al Qaeda and then Islamic State, kept warm at a small campfire where freshly-slaughtered chickens had been barbecued. A few raw livers lay scattered on a tray. Beside him was a Shi'ite soldier.

Both said they support Iraqi unity but neither had any faith in the politicians to manage the sectarian tensions which provoked a civil war in 2006-2007.

"Federalism would be good but only if we have good leaders," said Sahn, who criticised all politicians including fellow Sunnis. "We liberate these villages where Sunnis live. Yet Sunni politicians who have constituents here have never visited us at the frontline."

Miaad Madaad, the only female member of the Lions of the Tigris, clutched an AK-47 assault rifle and vowed to defeat Islamic State. "The last time they came to my house and threatened me I threw rocks at them and called them dogs," she said proudly.

Islamic State militants beheaded her father-in-law and brother-in-law. But her story illustrates the sectarian and ethnic complexities and mistrust facing Iraq.

When she and her husband fled to the relatively stable Kurdish region earlier this year, he was arrested by Kurdish fighters who suspected him of being an Islamic State fighter.

(editing by David Stamp)
 

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http://time.com/4585802/indonesia-chinese-muslim-protests/

Hardline Islamist Protests In Indonesia Are Spreading Fear Among the Minority Chinese

Stephen Wright / AP 4:35 AM ET

Protests by conservative Muslims against Jakarta's Chinese Christian governor are putting religious and racial fault lines in the spotlight

JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) — The capital of Muslim-majority Indonesia is on edge ahead of what is expected to be a second massive protest by conservative Muslims against its Christian governor and no group more so than its Chinese minority.

They have reason to be concerned. The movement against the governor, who is being prosecuted for allegedly insulting the Quran, has overflowed with racial slurs against his Chinese ancestry, an unnerving sign in a country with a history of lashing out violently against the ethnic minority that makes up 1 percent of its 250 million people.

The first major protest against Gov. Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama on Nov. 4 drew more than 100,000 people to Jakarta’s streets. Some held up banners calling for Ahok to be killed or decrying Chinese influence. It ended in violence, with one death and dozens injured after hard-liners attacked police. A separate mob tried to invade the apartment complex where Ahok lives in the north of the city and vandalized property in the area, which is home to many Chinese.

Hard-line organizers of the protest, who were unsatisfied by a police decision earlier this month to formally name Ahok as a suspect in the blasphemy case instead of arresting him, are promising another giant rally on Friday. After police pressure, they have agreed to concentrate the rally around a national monument in central Jakarta and insist it will be peaceful.

The furor over Ahok, sparked by his criticism of detractors who argued the Quran prohibits Muslims from having a non-Muslim leader, has highlighted religious and racial fault lines in Indonesia, the world’s most populous nation, and the growing challenge from proponents of Shariah law to its secular system of government.

For Chinese Indonesians, the controversy has awakened painful memories of the mass protests that ousted late dictator Suharto during the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Boiling resentment against immigrant Chinese tycoons who profited from ties to Suharto and his famously corrupt family spilled over into mob attacks on Chinese property and people, killing many. Nearly two decades later, Jakarta’s Chinatown is still scarred by the burned out shells of buildings torched in the chaos.

“Certainly as Chinese descendants, we are still traumatized by the riots in 1998,” said Clement Alexander, a grocery store owner in a narrow lane of the bustling Petak Sembilan market in Chinatown. “We heard that horrible event may happen again if the government fails to control the protests. It’s scared us, but we cannot do anything except pray,” he said.

“For rich ethnic Chinese, they could flee to Singapore or to other countries, but for lower-class people like me it is rather difficult, we just survive and depend on the government for protection.”

When Ahok in 2012 became the first Chinese to be elected deputy governor of Jakarta, and the first Christian in half a century, it was seen as a sign of the pluralistic tolerance fostered by the moderate form of Islam practiced in Indonesia.

But his rise to governor in 2014 to replace political ally Joko “Jokowi” Widodo after his election as president was unpalatable to hard-liners. With the support of moderates that hope to gain from Ahok’s fall, they have elevated their agenda to the national stage, and revealed that intolerant interpretations of Islam adapted from the Middle East have made greater inroads than believed.

Ahok is running for a second term as governor in elections due in February but since the blasphemy accusations erupted in September, his sky-high popularity in opinion polls has melted away. A pro-tolerance rally in Jakarta on Nov. 19 attracted less than 10,000 people. A military-organized event in the city on Wednesday meant to showcase respect for all of Indonesia’s six officially recognized religions was mainly populated by soldiers, schoolchildren and police, who had no choice about attending.

For the Nov. 4 protest, the normally clogged streets of Jakarta were nearly emptied of cars, embassies closed, countries such as Australia issued advisories against travel to the city and many businesses shuttered for the day, particularly in Chinatown.

“We are afraid the riots in 1998 would be repeated. But I don’t want to talk about that horrible event,” said Jhony Tan, owner of a store selling Buddhist worship paraphernalia.

“I hope the government can handle this issue, so there’s no negative impact to any other community, especially to ethnic Chinese here. If they fail, Indonesia will be ruined,” he said. “I’m sure the majority of Indonesian people are willing to see that this problem has nothing to do with us.”

Christianto Wibisono, an ethnic Chinese businessman and former government adviser whose home was burned in the 1998 riots, said that despite communal tensions, he is hopeful the government will maintain calm during Friday’s protest and beyond.

The government’s approach needs to sap the momentum of a vocal and highly motivated minority but faces challenges: the moderate, silent majority is intimidated by the hard-liners’ tactics and months of campaigning for the Jakarta gubernatorial election as well as Ahok’s blasphemy trial will keep divisive issues in the spotlight.

“Now is really the crucial test for Indonesia to maintain the country’s secular philosophy rather than be run over by Shariah groups. That would affect the whole world, if Indonesia became like the Middle East,” he said. “We should not import Middle East extremism. We should export our moderate Islamic philosophy and pluralism.”

___

Associated Press writer Niniek Karmini contributed to this report.
 
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