WAR 11-14-2015-to-11-20-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
(189) 10-24-2015-to-10-30-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...30-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(190) 10-31-2015-to-11-06-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...06-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(191) 11-07-2015-to-11-13-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...13-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
_____

BRKG: Widespread Coordinated Terrorist Attacks Occurring In Paris France
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...rist-Attacks-Occurring-In-Paris-France/page22


FUNG FYI ALERT: Syrian Passport Found at Site of Suicide Bombing
Started by doctor_fungcoolý, Today 04:55 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ian-Passport-Found-at-Site-of-Suicide-Bombing

ISIS fighters included with invaders entering Europe with forged passports
Started by Sasquatchý, 11-09-2015 05:19 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...nvaders-entering-Europe-with-forged-passports

November 13, 2015 on ABC-Obama: ISIS Is Not Getting ‘Stronger,’ We Have ‘Contained’ Them
Started by JohnGaltflaý, Yesterday 03:15 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-Getting-‘Stronger-’-We-Have-‘Contained’-Them

Main Islamic State (ISIS) thread
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?451597-Main-Islamic-State-(ISIS)-thread/page185

_____

The Four Horsemen - Week of 11/10 to 11/17
Started by Ragnaroký, 11-10-2015 05:55 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?478644-The-Four-Horsemen-Week-of-11-10-to-11-17

_____

Netanyahu's Framing of Middle East Situation is Spot-On
Started by Trainman-2ý, Yesterday 02:00 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...s-Framing-of-Middle-East-Situation-is-Spot-On

ISRAEL heating up again...
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?461079-ISRAEL-heating-up-again.../page60

_____

U.S. Congress Prepares to Ramp up Ukraine War Again by Authorizing Lethal Aid to Kiev
Started by JohnGaltflaý, 11-10-2015 04:32 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...e-War-Again-by-Authorizing-Lethal-Aid-to-Kiev

Main Russia/Ukraine invasion thread - NATO: Russian Tanks and Artillery Enter Ukraine
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ian-Tanks-and-Artillery-Enter-Ukraine/page431

_____

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/chinas-potential-pitfalls-5-the-united-states/

China's Potential Pitfalls #5: The United States

U.S. China policy remains a challenge for Beijing, but it’s not the South China Sea that will cause major issues.

By Xue Li
November 14, 2015

22 Shares
4 Comments

After enjoying rapid development for nearly 40 years, China is at a turning point in terms of both economic growth and social development. In this series, Dr. Xue Li examines the five most critical challenges and potential pitfalls China faces today. See his previous pieces on Pitfall #1, Pitfall #2, Pitfall #3, and Pitfall #4 as well.

China’s final potential pitfall is the foreign threat, which comes principally from the United States. Westernizing China remains the long-term goal of the United States, and the medium-term goal of dragging China into the current world order is also a westernization tactic.

Over the short term, Americans are working hard to establish win-win cooperation with China. But if China should fall into difficulties, the U.S. will adjust its policy goals. If economic stagnation and mass social unrest should appear in China, the forces aiming to divide the mainland will grow stronger, and those in the U.S. who want to westernize China (and fundamentally obliterate China’s capacity to challenge the United States) will see their goals as more realistic.

Ever since China began its reform and opening policy, the principal strategy of the United States has been engagement first and hedging second. Since 2014, however, this has been trending toward hedging first and engagement second. As hedging becomes more important, the South China Sea issue is now the touchstone for the United States in its monitoring of trends in Chinese foreign policy. Meanwhile, the U.S. has become more and more directly involved in the South China Sea issue. It is now one of the main players.

However, the principal goal of the United States in acting this way is not to contain China (as it contained the Soviet Union during the Cold War), but instead to maintain the regional balance of power, maintain regional stability, and to protect its interests. In order to do this, the U.S. needs to have a fairly clear understanding of China’s policy goals in the South China Sea. Therefore the U.S. finds it hard to accept China’s ambiguous policies. However, the South China Sea is not a core interest of the United States and so it is unlikely to fight a war with China over the South China Sea.

In fact, neither China nor the United States have any intention of fighting a war in the South China Sea. The disagreement about the South China Sea is actually being controlled effectively by both sides. China is also adjusting its own South China Sea policy in order to facilitate the accomplishment of its “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” strategy. China and the United States need to maintain communication about the South China Sea issue so that they will be able to reach more understandings and to avoid miscalculations.

If China is able to successfully respond to the five challenges I’ve listed in this series, it will not stumble on the threshold of becoming a developed country. China could continue to develop until it becomes the most powerful country in the world — this is the goal of the Chinese renaissance. However, if China is not able to respond effectively, these challenges could become pitfalls on the road to China’s rise.

Dr. Xue Li is Director of the Department of International Strategy at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Translation courtesy of Gao Dawei.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://nationalinterest.org/feature...-military-challenge-beijings-underwater-14340

The Next Big U.S.-China Military Challenge: Beijing's Underwater Nukes[1]

If America can credibly threaten China's nuclear deterrent, Beijing’s paranoia might become more risk-acceptant, rather than less. However, the Cold War might offer some perspective.

Robert Farley [2][3]
November 14, 2015
Comments 19

How vulnerable are China’s nuclear ballistic missile submarines [4] (SSBNs, or boomers), and what does that vulnerability mean for US strategy?

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has devoted considerable time and expense to developing a maritime nuclear deterrent. The United States Navy, on the other hand, has forty years of experience in hunting down Russian boomers. Chinese boomers present no major problem.

But the paradox of nuclear weapons is that one player’s insecurity can make the other player less secure. If the United States can credibly threaten the Chinese nuclear deterrent, Beijing’s paranoia might become more risk acceptant, rather than less. This makes the decision to exploit the vulnerability of China’s boomers fraught with danger.

Fortunately, the United States faced a similar dilemma in the Cold War, when U.S. attack boats (SSNs) hunted Soviet boomers in the arctic. That experience, and the debates that flowed from it, can help inform U.S. decision-making today.

Recap:

In the latter stages of the Cold War, the United States Navy (USN) came to the understanding [5] that the Soviet Union did not intend to use the bulk of its surface and submarines units on interdiction in the North Atlantic. For most of the Cold War, the U.S. and the United Kingdom had assumed that the USSR would use its submarines (and later its surface ships) much like Germany had used them in both World Wars; as part of an effort to destroy the commercial and military linkages between North American and Western Europe. The USN and the Royal Navy (RN) developed their anti-submarine doctrine around this assumption.

However, it became clear by the 1970s that the Soviet Union considered the protection of its SSBN force a more critical need than interdiction. The Soviets built their surface fleet, and much of their submarine fleet, around the idea of creating “bastions” that would allow the SSBNs to patrol, unmolested by U.S. and British attack submarines. Even Soviet carriers concentrated on this mission, at the expense of offensive capabilities.

Eventually, the USN decided upon an offensive strategy [6], designed to force the Soviets to allocate ships and submarines to defending the bastions. Strategic anti-submarine warfare (or ASW directed against strategic targets) had obvious escalatory implications. If the Soviets came to believe that the United States intended to sink its maritime deterrent, Moscow might become paranoid enough to use the submarines before it lost them. Conversely, a significant threat to the bastions might force the Kremlin to the peace table. Either way, Soviet ships and subs devoted to the bastions could not create mischief elsewhere.

A 1987 study by Ronald O’Rourke worked through the upsides and pitfalls of [7] offensive strategic ASW. The study concentrated on the question of whether the Soviets would perceive attacks against the bastions as dangerously escalatory, explaining the Navy’s view that such an offensive strategy would not likely incur a nuclear Soviet response. Of course, given the enormous advantages that the Soviets enjoyed in the arctic, this plan was probably impracticable in any case, but may have had considerable value as a bluff designed to tie down the Soviet Navy.

Bastions of the South China Sea?

NATO and the Warsaw Pact never went to war, so we never got to work out the implications of threatening the USSR’s most precious strategic assets. The Sino-American naval competition differs in many ways from its Cold War antecedent, but some parallels endure. The SSBNs of the PLAN have yet to undertake a deterrent patrol, and so Chinese nuclear strategy remains uncertain. However, several factors point to the likelihood of a bastion strategy, including the relative noisiness of Chinese boomers.

If the U.S. and China went to war [8], how might the escalatory logic of attacks against Chinese boomers (and Chinese boomer bases) differ from that of the Cold War? Key variables include:

- The vulnerability of the subs themselves

- The robustness of the “bastions”

- The security of the other legs of the deterrent triad

- The paranoia of the leadership

- The effectiveness of USN ASW efforts

By almost all accounts, Chinese SSBNs are noisier in absolute terms than their Soviet counterparts. This suggests that they could conduct independent deterrent patrols only at great risk, and that in time of war American SSNs could hunt them with significant hope of success. The Chinese also have far fewer SSBNs (less than 10, versus 40+) than the Soviets operated during the Cold War, making the overall deterrent more vulnerable. Projected attrition of the Chinese SSBN force would happen much faster than the Soviet, telescoping the Chinese response process.

The early post-war Soviet Navy lacked much in the way of serious anti-submarine capabilities. However, during the 1960s the Soviets began to pursue ASW with much greater seriousness, introducing a variety of ASW specialized surface vessels and aircraft-carrying ships. China has yet to pursue ASW with the same degree of enthusiasm [9], although Chinese ASW has reportedly improved in the last decade. Overall, however, the ability of the PLAN to protect its bastions is probably less than that of the Soviet Navy during its heyday.

By the 1970s the Soviets had deployed large numbers of bombers and ICBMs, easily capable of providing secure second strike capability. While a surprise U.S. attack might decapitate the Soviet leadership, the Americans could not hope to destroy the entire Soviet second strike capability on the ground. And while China’s nuclear forces have taken a step forward in the past decade, they do cannot yet match the robustness of Soviet nuclear forces in the latter part of the Cold War. Attacks on Chinese SSBNs would attrite the entire Chinese nuclear deterrent at a faster rate than the Soviet.

During the Cold War, the Soviet leadership exhibited spectacular paranoia about the prospect of a decapitating strike against the Kremlin. Various systems, including stealth aircraft and land-attack cruise missiles, threatened to detach the leadership from the broader Soviet military machine. The Chinese leadership, on the other hand, has accepted nuclear vulnerability for at least fifty years, relying instead on a minimal deterrent posture combined with the exploitation of superpower tension. Thus, we can hope that the CCP will react in measured fashion to the loss of its nuclear deterrent.

What of the effectiveness of USN attack submarines? U.S. SSNs have never stopped monitoring Russian SSBN deployments, but they have increasingly taken on other missions, such as the launch of land-attack cruise missiles. Modern Seawolf and Virginia class submarines surely exceed the capabilities of the boats deployed during the late Cold War, however.

Taken together, these factors suggest a strategic situation that differs in important ways from the late Cold War balance. Even protected by bastions, China’s boomers will suffer greater vulnerability than did their Soviet cousins. At the same time, the Chinese leadership has historically accepted a greater degree of nuclear vulnerability than the Soviets entertained at any point past the 1950s. Consequently, there is some reason to hope that attacks against China’s boomer bastions would not result in nuclear escalation.

Implications:

Notwithstanding the differences between the respective undersea competitions with the Russians and the Chinese, the United States needs to think very carefully about whether and how it will pursue the PLAN’s SSBN in case of war, or even heightened tension. Operators have a laudable tendency to push the borders of the possible; if Chinese boomers can be hunted, then why not hunt them, and hunt them well? But these operations need a strategic logic to animate them. Threatening Chinese boomers may serve U.S. strategic interests better than attacking them; refraining from threatening behavior could convey an interest in restraint.

In any case, if the United States and China go to war, or even draw close to war, both sides will pay a great deal of attention to the PLAN’s boomers. The best case for the United States would probably be for China’s SSBNs to remain safe and sound behind an elaborate set of air, sea, and surface defenses, thus drawing considerable forces away from more critical theaters of action. Posing a threat that is credible, but not too credible, is the problem that faces the silent service of the USN.

Robert Farley, a frequent contributor to TNI, is author of The Battleship Book [10]. He serves as an Senior Lecturer at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky. His work includes military doctrine, national security, and maritime affairs. He blogs at Lawyers, Guns and Money [11] and Information Dissemination [12] and The Diplomat [13].

Image: Wikimedia Commons/Owly K

Tags
China [14]submarines [15]Nuclear weapons [16]
Topics
Security [17]
Regions
Asia [18] [3]
Source URL (retrieved on November 13, 2015): http://nationalinterest.org/feature...-military-challenge-beijings-underwater-14340

Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/feature...-military-challenge-beijings-underwater-14340
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/robert-farley
[3] http://twitter.com/share
[4] http://nationalinterest.org/feature...y-fear-chinas-underwater-atomic-arsenal-14218
[5] http://fas.org/irp/doddir/navy/strategy1980s.pdf
[6] https://books.google.com/books?id=L...l war college review bastion escalate&f=false
[7] https://books.google.com/books/about/Nuclear_Escalation_Strategic_Anti_submar.html?id=YgC3tgAACAAJ
[8] http://nationalinterest.org/feature/asia-flames-us-china-war-10621
[9] https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china-closing-gap-anti-submarine-warfare
[10] http://www.amazon.com/The-Battleship-Book-Robert-Farley/dp/1479405566
[11] http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/
[12] http://www.informationdissemination.net/
[13] http://thediplomat.com/
[14] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/china
[15] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/submarines
[16] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/nuclear-weapons
[17] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
[18] http://nationalinterest.org/region/asia
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/artic...expect_after_nov_13_paris_attacks_111563.html

November 13, 2015
What to Expect After Nov. 13 Paris Attacks
By Stratfor
65 Comments

Update (6:00 CST): According to French media reports, French security forces have stormed and secured the Bataclan theater. The attackers apparently used grenades inside the main concert hall, Aujourd'hui Paris reported Nov. 13. Details are still emerging.

As many as 60 people died Nov. 13 in multiple terrorist attacks throughout Paris. At least five gunmen - likely jihadists judging from witness's accounts - conducted the attacks.


Timeline of the Attack

The attacks, which were clearly coordinated, took place in multiple locations and involved different methods. In the first wave, two suicide bombers detonated their explosives at locations near the Stade de France, where a soccer match between France and Germany was taking place. (French President Francois Hollande himself was at the stadium at the time of the attack. He was escorted from the scene and met with French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve in a closed meeting shortly thereafter.) It is unclear whether grenades or other explosives were used, and it is possible a suicide bomber may have been involved.

Meanwhile, gunmen also opened fire, reportedly with Kalashnikov rifles, on a tightly packed Cambodian restaurant in a drive-by shooting. Shots were also fired at the Bataclan concert hall, where a hostage situation in now underway.

Roughly 25 minutes later, gunmen also opened fire on Rue de Charonne. And about an hour after the initial attacks, attacks by other terrorist cells took place at the Louvre and Les Halles.

Special police units, including RAID, a police intervention unit, have been rapidly mobilized and are currently securing the areas around the stadium, the bars and restaurants in the area of the 10th and 11th arrondissement, a part of Paris popular with young people and tourists, and the Bataclan concert hall, where at least some of the gunmen, allegedly armed with explosives, are reportedly located and holding up to 100 hostages.

Events in Paris could evolve rapidly - the standoff with the gunmen at the Bataclan concert hall could end at any moment if the French special police units believe that the gunmen are going to harm the hostages.

Though shocking, the attacks are not completely surprising. Multiple individuals from France and other European countries have traveled to Syria to join extremist groups there. As the Charlie Hebdo attacks have also demonstrated, there is a persistent risk of terrorist attacks within Europe. An important question going forward is whether the attacks were entirely grassroots in nature or whether the assailants received instruction or assistance from abroad from groups such as the Islamic State or al Qaeda. Furthermore, the recent influx of refugees into Europe from places such as Syria highlights the risk that jihadist groups could have placed some of their members among the large refugee flow in order to conduct attacks in Europe.

In an address to the nation, French President Francois Hollande said that the country will close off its borders. The French government will prioritize immediately locking down the city, protecting civilians and capturing the attackers. The next piece of that will be to close down transportation and the borders to prevent any perpetrators from escaping. Finally they will begin to investigate to uproot the parties responsible for the attacks. Notably, Hollande has officialy declared a state of emergency.

Political Fallout

The attacks will surely have political consequences. They come five days before France's only aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is due to set sail for the Persian Gulf for actions against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. France has been carrying out airstrikes in Syria since late September. Should the attacks be traced back to the Islamic State's core area of operation, France will probably deepen its involvement in anti-Islamic State operations in Syria and Iraq at a time when the Syrian battlefield in particular is becoming crowded and complicated.

From a political perspective, the attacks are a reminder of France's longstanding ethnic frictions following several months in which the focus has been on neighboring Germany. High numbers of migrants have been entering Germany from the east and south, with very few carrying on to France. As a result, France has kept a relatively low profile in the attempts to stem the flow of migrants, though it has been present at the numerous summits on the issue and has supported Germany's push for a relocation of asylum seekers across Europe. Nevertheless, this event can be expected to strengthen the argument of those groups that have been calling for a halt in the flow of immigrants and the closing of borders in countries such as Germany, Sweden and much of Central and Eastern Europe

In the wake of these attacks, Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Front party could see their popularity rise. Le Pen kept a low profile after the Charlie Hebdo shooting in January and still saw an increase in her party's popularity because of its longstanding anti-immigration message. Hollande also saw a brief uptick in popularity after the Charlie Hebdo attack because of his reaction to the events, but a repeat of this trend is not expected because people will now question whether the anti-terrorism measures that were approved this year actually worked. The leader of the center-right Republicans Party, Nicolas Sarkozy, also has a history of taking a strong stance on security issues; he was campaigning on the subject only last week. He is expected to battle the milder Alain Juppe for his party's nomination in the 2017 elections, and voters may swing to his side in the wake of the attacks.

A Stratfor Intelligence Report.


What to Expect After the Nov. 13 Paris Attacks is republished with permission of Stratfor.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/friday-13-november-2015

The John Batchelor Show

Friday 13 November 2015

Air Date: November 13, 2015.


Photo, left: In October and November of 2005, a series of riots occurred in the suburbs of Paris and other French cities, involving the burning of cars and public buildings at night.

The unrest started on 27 October at Clichy-sous-Bois, where police were investigating a reported break-in at a building site, and a group of local youths scattered in order to avoid interrogation. Three of them hid in a power-station where two died from electrocution, resulting in a power blackout. (It was not established whether police had suspected these individuals or a different group, wanted on separate charges.) The incident ignited rising tensions about youth unemployment and police harassment in the poorer housing estates, and there followed three weeks of rioting throughout France. According to Spiegel the rioters were the children of immigrants from North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa for whom Islam was an inseparable component of their self-identity which strengthened their sense of solidarity, gave them the appearance of legitimacy and drew a line between them and the French. A state of emergency was declared on 8 November, later extended for three weeks, and the government announced a crackdown on immigration and fraudulent marriages.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Hour One
Friday 13 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Sebastian v Gorka, Marine Corps University; Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, in re: Paris: ISIS tweeting "Paris is burning." Three young men entered the theater, shot wildly at young people. Pres Francois Hollande visits the site of the massacre, declares, "We will have no mercy."

Massive intelligence failure: got past a network built over fifteen years. More than seven locations attacked simultaneously: need weapons, safe house, coordination, vast planning, How did all of it get past France's generally good intell svcs? Shocking. Was this planned overseas? Did executors get graining in camps in Somalia, Yemen, Syria, etc? Parallel to Mumbai in that it paralyzed an entire city, chose soft targets where many would be congregated to allow enormous body counts. Not a surprise to those who've analyzed jihadi tactics and procedure s in the last fifteen years – Beslan, Kenya, others –all the same techniques, and he intent is the same: synchronized attacks, low-tech, creates a mass panic. The Paris govt has shut down every public institution tomorrow, and the national borders are closed, Exactly what they wanted to achieve. Have consolidated power in Syria Iraq,; now expanding the caliphate. We the mujahedin will take the fight to you on [haram] soil. . . . all the groups have comparable goals. ISIS has been good at publicizing; "the shiny object ins the room " for several years. / Successful attack in the heart of Western Europe. Intell officers often say, "We didn't have any info on this coming so it wasn't an intell failure>" What? Specious – an across-the board intell failure. If ISIS did do this then in invalidates much of what the [talkers] have said – "ISIS doesn't want to . . ." At least, this will demolish the notion of lone wolf actor - they're all linked: by the ideology of jihadism. A global threat.

- Attack was planned in advance. I personally dismiss the facile reports that this was revenge for "Jihadi John" until evidence to the contrary. Attack was too sophisticated for a rushed revenge attack.
- Attacks at at least 7 locations. This is Mumbai all over.
- Unclear who conducted attack. al Qaeda or islamic State? Someone will eventually claim credit. Given the sophistication, I suspect al Qaeda, but I merely speculating.
- Massive, massive intel failure. This is the danger of playing defense with terrorist groups. A matter of time before one attack gets thru.
[Addendum: Le Bataclan - where hostage-taking occurred - had been signalled many times by jihadi groups because it once housed a support concert for Magav Israeli units.]

Friday 13 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Sebastian v Gorka, Marine Corps University; Bill Roggio, Long War Journal and FDD; Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, in re: France, multiple attacks. We don't know who did it, how many shooters, how many dead. However, tit is a massive intell failure. The US mainland has long been target Number One, Are we ready for this? Got though French intell – what about ours? Hard to tell – it's based on humint. US have amazing sigint, satellites, etc., but ability to melt into the diaspora is central. The NYPD has done brilliantly at humint, depends on penetration of radicalized elements, getting the signals early enough to arrest the individuals, In the last 12 mos, 80 personas have been arrested on US soil representing ISIS; had no intention of leaving but wished to serve ISIS by killing Americans here. / The drone attacks in Afghanistan did nicely tactically but were wholly ineffectually as strategy – the Administration's mode failed spectacularly. Cannot deny the group's ability to recruit, raise money – drone program failed. Will strike in the heart of Crusader countries. Manichaean war vs the Crusaders. Paris, UK, Italy, Germany – all the same to them. Today will claim victory for their ideology.

Friday 13 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Ann Marlowe, Hudson, in re: . . . Bashir in Zoara on the Libyan coast; Joanna de Bono, often in Malta and wanted in Tunisia and perhaps elsewhere; contact with jihadists. Sells weapons around the larger region – gunrunner, smuggles diesel fuel, drugs widespread fraud, false visas from Algeria, Libya and Tunisia and human trafficking. Fake passports. Malta is in the Schengen Area. Her bogus visas cost €3,000, going to Libyans. DeBono also notorious for dating a Gadhaffi. Rubber boats that the human traffickers are using aren't even Chinese copies of zodiacs, but are copies being made in people's garages out of deeply unsafe materials. This is the state where the Obama Administration and Secy Clinton claimed success. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-34157123 ; http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/europe/europe-migrants-mediterranean-operation-sophia/

Friday 13 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: John Roskam, IPA Melbourne, in re: We had an attack in the middle of a café, with three deaths; we're a free and open society where we trust each other – and now all this is up for debate. Only controversy is from the left. We need to have a free and open society and at the same time the police must protect the citizenry's safety. Foreign fighters returning from the Middle East, trained to murder. . . . Modcrnity versus Medievalism.
Police storm Sydney cafe to end hostage siege, three dead ... - Heavily armed Australian police stormed a Sydney cafe early on ... was shot dead after attacking two anti-terrorism officers with a knife. http://www.theguardian.com/australi...nd-night-of-terror-unfolded-at-the-lindt-cafe Just after the morning rush at the Lindt cafe on Monday, Man Haron Monis held up a gun and began a 16-hour hostage crisis. Here Guardian Australia reporters detail the key moments of the siege that ended in the death of two victims https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/29738998/police-raid-sydney-homes-fo...

Hour Two
Friday 13 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Michael E Vlahos, Johns Hopkins, & Naval War College, in re: Three, four, five, six young men trained to kill in Mesopotamia. French i9nteligence is very good, and they were beaten. Achilles killed Hector, was the all-powerful being whom everyone worshipped almost as a god – but Achilles is not welcome in the Twenty-first Century. The source of the Muslim revival warriors. What the Iliad has to teach us about the Islamic State. . . . We've contracted out or Achilles to contractors and to drones. The warrior-hero is increasingly distasteful. It's in the sacrifice that the Muslim revival-warriors grow powerful. The purification of an Islam degraded over centuries can be accomplished only through us and our sacrifice. [There's no middle way:] it needs to be either fulfilled by the jihadists or obliterated.

-----They burst in and started spraying bullets' More from Rory Mulholland who is on the streets of central Paris: One young man who gave his name as Hervé spoke to The Telegraph in the street near the Bataclan rock venue said he had escaped through an emergency exit. "Three men with Kalashnikovs and wearing flak jackets burst in in the middle of the concert. There were probably around 1,000 people there. They just started spraying bullets. I saw a girl hit right in front of me. There must have been quite a few dead." He said the men were not wearing masks and that they were in their 20s or 30s.

Friday 13 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Michael E Vlahos, Johns Hopkins, & Naval War College, in re: Why do they want us involved? To pull us in the way al Q did in 9/11 is to incite a greater urgency and commitment to the authority for the larger cause. Adds legitimacy to the jihadists. The US has been conducting air strakes over the Muslim world for over a year, to very little effect, but not at all a decisive weapon. By inciting the West, no obvious risk of greater military enterprise. . . . Achilles hates governance and modernity. The later-day Achilles, the Islamic State: Agamemnon is the US. US guardianship for the last 30 or 40 years; will be overturned. We honor heroes who save lives, not who honor Achilles. . . We'll have to march in and slaughter; last time we did that was in Vietnam, no stomach now. We killed over a million Vietnamese. Toward robot warriors. We're emotionally detached from killing, have no wrathful relish in killing mano-a-mano, which is what the enemy has. Americans have had en9ugh of war in the Middle East – but they won't stop coming from us. We'd turn on a dime if that attacked us again as on 9/11. Paris in mourning, Eiffel Tower dark. We wait in New York.

00:55 People escaped Bataclan masacre by climbing onto roof. The Telegraph's Rory Mulholland reports: Dozens of people escaped from the Bataclan rock venue by climbing onto its roof. Frederic Nowak, who was at the Eagles Of Death concert with his 23-year-old son, told the Telegraph that he was one of them. "It was about 30 minutes into the concert when I saw two men firing into the crowd with machine guns. I at first hid behind a speaker. The men were firing wildly into the crowd and even at people lying on the ground.

Then I followed some people who were running out through a door to the right of the stage. It led to stairs but all the doors off the stairs were locked. We were stuck there for about ten minutes. There were thirty or forty people there. Then we went further up the stairs and arrived at the roof. We got out through a window and we saw a man whose apartment was in the building next door waving to us. We made out way over the rooftop and he let us in through his attic window. We stayed there until we heard the past police raiding the venue a while later." Mr Kowak said he got a good look at just one of the shooters. He said he was young, probably in his 20s, and dressed casually.

00:50 Bataclan witness - A young man who was inside the Bataclan has given a detailed account of what happened to Le Figaro. He said: It was chaos. I was on the right of the room in the Bataclan, an Eagles of Death Metal song was about to finish, when I heard the sound of explosions like fire crackers.

I saw the guitarist take off his guitar, I turned around, and I saw a guy with an automatic weapon firing into the air. Everyone got onto the ground. From that moment, instinct kicked in. With each volley you try to get as far away as possible from the gunmen - impossible to say how many, it all went by too quickly. I tried, with some other people, to get onto the stage where there was an emergency exit on the right.

And there it was chaos, people were terrified, pleading to survive, and others pushed and pulled at us to get behind the stage. We hid in a room on the right, by the stage, thinking that it was an exit, but no. A member of staff in the room said that the emergency exit was on the other side of the room.

We still heard shooting. After a few more seconds or minutes, nothing, and we saw people edging towards the emergency exit - when I think about it, the gunmen must have been reloading at that point. All of our group then decided to cross, passing behind the rear curtain. Then we found ourselves outside, and ran towards the boulevard. We heard shooting in the street where we were but I didn’t look back. I ran, like all the world ran, towards Bastille. On the road there were already many police in cars and motorbikes heading towards the venue.

I went home, I’m OK. Others can’t say the same thing. I wasn’t frightened, and I’m not (yet) in shock. I’m writing this so I don’t forget.

https://audioboom.com/boos/3811957-...ahos-johns-hopkins-gene-marks-washington-post

https://audioboom.com/boos/3811893-...-ann-marlowe-hudson-john-roskam-ipa-melbourne
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151114/as-apec-paris-attacks--110db9f7db.html

Philippine forces on alert, assure APEC summit's safety

Nov 14, 2:56 AM (ET)

(AP) Philippine Marines mount anti-aircraft guns near the venue as security has been...
Full Image

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Philippine forces went on the highest alert Saturday following the deadly attacks in Paris, in a bid to ensure the safety of President Barack Obama and other Asia-Pacific leaders who will gather in Manila for an annual summit next week.

National police chief Director-General Ricardo Marquez said extra security steps, including a gun ban in metropolitan Manila, will reinforce the security of thousands of delegates, including 19 heads of state, attending the Nov. 18-19 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit at a convention complex by Manila Bay.

No specific threat has been monitored anywhere in the country, but security was strengthened at airports, seaports, train stations and other public areas "to maximize deterrence against unforeseen events," national police spokesman Chief Superintendent Wilben Mayor said.

President Benigno Aquino III expressed outrage over the Paris attacks that killed at least 120 people. The Philippines, he said, stands with France as France has stood by the Southeast Asian country when it was devastated by deadly Typhoon Haiyan two years ago.

"We stand with France now in the firm belief that the light must never dim in Paris," Aquino said.

He urged Filipinos in the country to be vigilant.

The Philippines has faced numerous terrorist attacks, including a 2004 bombing that ignited an inferno and killed 116 people on board a ferry, but threats from al-Qaida-linked militants have waned amid years of U.S.-backed Philippine offensives. Filipino forces also continue to fight communist insurgents mostly in the countryside.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
Not sure where to put this. Has anybody told Assad or Russia?


7m
John Kerry: Transitional government for Syria to be set in 6 months, elections in 18 months - @AP
End of alert
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Enrico Ivanov ‏@Russ_Warrior 40m
Nuclear submarine "Vladimir Monomakh"
has successfully launched 2 Bulava ICBM!
#Russia (drills) Via @Armiya_Russii
CTyrBgmXAAAxqGP.jpg



^^^ When was the last time they did multi-launch drills? :shkr:
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Enrico Ivanov ‏@Russ_Warrior 40m
Nuclear submarine "Vladimir Monomakh"
has successfully launched 2 Bulava ICBM!
#Russia (drills) Via @Armiya_Russii
CTyrBgmXAAAxqGP.jpg



^^^ When was the last time they did multi-launch drills? :shkr:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnHUr0AqNOU
RAW: Russia test-fires Bulava IBMs from nuclear submarine



Published on Nov 14, 2015
Russian nuclear submarine Vladimir Monomakh (Project 955 Borei class)
fires 2 Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles from underwater for
the first time – the launch was successful as the IBMs reached their target
in Kamchatka polygon.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...-state-terrorism-editorials-debates/75788436/

The nature of this war: Our view

The Editorial Board5:49 p.m. EST November 14, 2015

Paris attacks highlight conflict between modernity, barbarity.
Comments 58

French President Francois Hollande called Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris “an act of war.” And they were, much as the Sept. 11 attacks were an act of war against the United States.

But what, exactly, is the nature of this conflict?

“War on terror” has always been something of a misnomer. Terror is a tactic, not an enemy. This is a war against religious fanatics — Islamic extremists associated on 9/11/01 with Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network and on 11/13/15 with the Islamic State, which promptly claimed credit for the Paris attacks.

It is a war against just a tiny fraction, perhaps only thousands, of the world’s approximately 1 billion Muslims. But as 9/11 and the subsequent attacks have shown, even small groups of people can inflict horrific damage and instill even wider fear.

From the extremists’ perspective, this is a war aimed at reestablishing an Islamic caliphate, a war against the infidels, including other Muslims, who dare to hold different beliefs. After the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris earlier this year, a radical Muslim preacher in London wrote on these pages that, in effect, the cartoonists got what they deserved because of their blasphemy against the prophet Muhammad. That was a warped and chilling rationale, and the perpetrators of the Friday night attacks had equally hollow excuses for slaughtering innocents — concertgoers at a music hall, diners at a cafe, fans outside a soccer game.

This is a war in which it is impossible to defend every “soft target,” so the international community must take the fight to the enemy, which has established strongholds in Syria and Iraq.

It is a war that, if we are not careful, threatens to undermine civil liberties, compassion for refugees, religious freedom and other values that define Western society.

It is a war that is likely to be long, and it will be hard to know when it is won. Surrender won’t come at a courthouse or on a battleship.

It is a war in which there is nothing to negotiate. There are no territorial demands to discuss, no acceptable political compromises. The enemy must be destroyed, using the full array of military, economic and intelligence means.

It is a war in which successes — this week’s recapture of Sinjar in Iraq, the apparent killing of the psychopathic Islamic State fighter known as Jihadi John — are followed by tragedies such as Friday’s attacks in Paris.

It is a war of modernity against medievalism, of civilization against barbarity.

USA TODAY's editorial opinions are decided by its Editorial Board, separate from the news staff. Most editorials are coupled with an opposing view — a unique USA TODAY feature.
_____
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/3492794/a-death-cult-declares-war-on-the-west/?cs=298

Opinion

A death cult declares war on the West

By Janet Daley
Nov. 15, 2015, 2:30 p.m.

•Rolling coverage of Paris terror attacks

Whatever this is, it is not a clash of civilisations. The concept of "civilisation" scarcely comes into it. Nor is it a struggle between competing sets of values, or a religious war, or a battle with an alien culture. There is no debate here – as there was in the Cold War – about how it is best for men to live: the enemy has stated explicitly that it does not revere life at all. On the contrary, it is in love with self-inflicted death, which it sees as the highest moral achievement.

Civilians are not collateral damage in this campaign: their deaths are the whole point.

This is not even war in any comprehensible sense. Where are the demands, the negotiable limits, or the intelligible objectives?

It is not the modern world versus medievalism, or the secular enlightenment trying to deal with fundamentalist religion. It isn't anything that can be encompassed in the vocabulary of coherent, systematic thought in which we are now accustomed to describe the world. This is just insanity.

There is no point now arguing about the historical or theological roots, about correct or incorrect interpretations of the Koran or even the social role of Islamic leadership. When the lucid try to impose logic on behaviour that is pathological, they will be driven into a dead end – or waste time coming to blows among themselves on matters that are no longer relevant.

What we are faced with is a virulent and highly contagious madness, a hysterical death cult which has, almost by accident, fallen on the fertile ground of global circumstances: chaos in the Middle East, confusion and lack of resolve in the West and the awakening of a ruthless, opportunistic power base in the East.

But there is no time any more for international recriminations or parochial introspection. The old enmities and suspicions – between the West and Russia, Turkey and the Kurds – are going to have to be put aside in the name of one unified, relentless effort to stamp out an epidemic of murderous lunacy.

Civilians are not collateral damage in this campaign: their deaths are the whole point. This time there isn't even the "logic" of the Charlie Hebdo attacks whose pretext was the blasphemous depiction of the Prophet. Just the slaughter of random innocents, many of whom may have been Muslims themselves, carried out for the sheer nihilistic thrill of it. It is that thrill – the brief absolute power of anarchic terror – that is going to have to be forcibly suppressed with all the weapons at our disposal.

Francois Holland declared that France would provide "a merciless response to [these] ISIL barbarians". But the question remains: how do you respond to unreason? All the things that make an enemy – however evil and malign – predictable, analysable, and intelligible are missing here. The actions make no sense in any terms that are within common understanding.

When the news started to come in from Paris, my husband and I began emailing our friends and contacts there. Are you OK? Are you and yours safe? They all replied immediately, even though they must have been preoccupied with the unfolding ever-more horrendous events, sometimes taking place outside their own windows.

It reminded me horribly of 9/11, and of trying desperately to reach friends in New York. All the phone lines were down so communications were agonisingly slow. It took days in some cases to learn whether people we knew were still alive.

After the Paris atrocity, Europe will have, paradoxically, to be both more united and less convergent. If the Schengen agreement – the sacred principle of "open borders" – was already in question because of the flood of migrants from precisely the region which is spawning this movement, it must now be regarded as outrageously dangerous.

The prospect of free, unchecked movement between EU countries was one of the great attractions of those thousands of people who arrived at the un-policed external borders. Once having set foot on European soil it is possible to move from one end of the Schengen zone to another, to become effectively untraceable, seeking out the most favourable circumstances in any country at any moment.

It is an economic migrant's dream, which may be no bad thing, but it is also an open field for terrorists – a thought which obviously occurred to Hollande when, on Friday night, he closed the French borders, presumably indefinitely. The wire services are reporting as I write that a Syrian passport was found on the body of one of the terrorists. If this turns out to be true, it is going to raise fresh controversy about the EU policy on migration – even about the accommodation of Syrian refugees who had been considered one of the most unambiguously deserving categories of asylum-seekers in the current wave.

France and its attitude towards Islam are already being analysed and dissected for all they are worth. Is it the willingness of the country to become involved in action in the regions claimed by Islamic State that has incited this terrible vindictiveness? Or the enforced secularism of the society in which such a large Muslim minority lives in alienation from national civic norms?

Was it the French military intervention in Libya, or the banning of the burka that was responsible for this havoc? Maybe none – or all – of the above. But none of this speculation is to the point. France has the honourable and consistent foreign policy that it has. It is a proudly secular republic which made the decision to separate civil life from religious observance several centuries ago for what it believed then – and believes now – to be historically sound reasons.

And what is the alternative that is being demanded? Sharia law? The subjection of women? An end to liberal democracy? Are any of these things even within the bounds of consideration? What could be accomplished by national self-doubt or criticism at this point, when there is not even a reasonable basis for discussion with the enemy?

If there is any need to argue about these matters, it should come at some other time. This debate cannot be conducted at the point of a gun held by a madman. Whatever the attitudes of France's authorities, whatever mistakes might have been made in the assimilation of North African or Middle Eastern minorities, the French people did not deserve this, just as Americans did not deserve 9/11.

It is wicked and irresponsible to suggest otherwise. The indiscriminate mass murder of civilians must put an end to that. The sane people of the world – even when their ultimate objectives differ or conflict – will need to join together now to stamp out, by whatever means are necessary, a threat to all varieties of civilised life.

Janet Daley is a columnist with The Sunday Telegraph, London.
_____
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://time.com/4113324/paris-attacks-veterans/

Ideas Paris Attacks

Iraq Vet: What Real War With ISIS Would Mean

Elliot Ackerman @elliotackerman
Nov. 14, 2015

Video

News from Paris came as veterans celebrated a wedding—will some of us be heading back to war?

The news alert for the Paris attacks came across my phone as I was about to officiate the marriage of my friend Sean, a veteran of multiple tours in Iraq whom I’d fought alongside in Afghanistan. We had just finished the last rehearsals and Sean’s small wedding party began to gather. The groomsmen, a rank of veterans in rented tuxedos, arrayed themselves on the crest of a bluff overlooking the evergreen studded ridge lines surrounding Carmel Valley, Calif. Nobody wore a uniform. We were civilians now, and ready to be. After the exchange of vows and recessional we gathered at a few outside cocktail tables. I could see people checking the headlines between toasts, but nobody spoke openly about the attacks. We didn’t want the war to cast a shadow over the day. This wedding was a celebration of love but also a celebration of Sean’s moving on. Away from wars.

No such moving on has occurred for the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS). In a little over a month it has claimed credit for three major attacks: the Ankara bombing that killed 102 in Turkey, the Metrojet flight that killed 224 Russians, and now the Paris attack that has killed 129 in France. If the Islamic State were treated as an actual state, these attacks would be considered acts of war. But the Obama administration and other governments refuse to classify ISIL, or ISIS, or Daesh as anything other than a terrorist organization, the logic being that statehood status conveys a legitimacy not deserved. The attacks in Paris offer the West an opportunity to strike at the Islamic State’s greatest vulnerability: the very statehood it aspires to.

When it claimed nation status, the Islamic State forfeited the insurgent’s advantage: it gave itself form. We have done little to take advantage of our adversary’s new shape. We continue to refer to it as ISIS or ISIL, not embracing the idea that statehood does not legitimize this organization but rather makes it vulnerable to destruction in a way that its precursor, the shadowy al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia, never was.

On Saturday morning, when speaking to the Italian Bishop’s Conference, Pope Francis referred to the Paris attacks as being part of a “piecemeal Third World War.” By elevating the conflicts in Iraq and Syria into a world war, the Islamic State invites a coalition to form against it. Nations such as Turkey, France, Russia, and of course the U.S. possess unmatched capabilities to launch conventional military campaigns which could swiftly retake cities such as ar-Raqqah, Ramadi, and Mosul. To date, our strategy to counter the Islamic State has consisted of airstrikes combined with the use of surrogate forces, and the targeting of organizational leadership. It’s not working.

Targeted killings might serve as a standalone strategy when attacking a traditional terrorist organization, but they serve only a complimentary role when trying to degrade the capabilities of a state. Just before the Paris attacks the U.S. military reported the likely death of “Jihadi John,” the Islamic State’s infamous executioner, while simultaneously announcing the expansion of air strikes against oil production facilities. This announcement did nothing to deter the attack. Nor did the May 16 strike which killed Abu Sayyaf, the Islamic State’s chief administrator of oil production, do anything to degrade production capability. A strategy relying on the targeted killings without operations against its military forces is akin to trying to defeat the Germans in World War II by killing select generals instead of meeting their army on the battlefield. It won’t work.

Though analogies to World War II might seem anachronistic, they are unusually apt when considering a current diplomatic and military strategy. Until now, the air war has had no profound effect on the Islamic State, and the surrogates employed by the West, namely the Kurds and Iraqi Security Forces, have not proved themselves capable of retaking significant territory. Only a competent, modern, and highly trained force can accomplish this task. As reluctant as we all are to recommit significant numbers of ground troops into Iraq and Syria, attacks like those we’ve seen recently will continue until the Islamic State is dismantled.

They’ve offered us, if we so chose, the opportunity to assemble a coalition. As in World War II, a coalition will likely include partners—such as Iran and Russia—which have different long-term regional interests than ours. Regardless, the U.S. has historically shown sufficient leadership to negotiate these nuances when the broader fight is against a common adversary. We can show such leadership again.

Even if the Islamic State is defeated on the battlefield, its radical ideology will not vanish. A large-scale ground intervention in Iraq and Syria would include a post-conflict phase which, if not handled properly, could look much like the post-invasion Iraq of the last decade. Although we would enter into such a phase with certain advantages—a regional knowledge honed over the past decade of war, and the possibility of a stronger multi-national coalition—are we prepared for such a recommitment?

When I served with Sean in the Marines we had a saying: “Nothing is more dangerous than a gentle surgeon.” The Paris attacks illustrate that gentle measures—a limited commitment of ground troops, a refusal to work closely with the Iranians and Russians, respecting the border between Iraq and Syria while the Islamic State does not—will only prolong the conflict, ensuring we remain vulnerable.

Sitting down to dinner after the wedding, I struggled not to check the developing headlines on my phone. I wanted to celebrate my friend. Every veteran there that night, I know, wanted to be what we’d become: a professor at Stanford, a software engineer, a small business owner. Yet many of us, including Sean, still serve in the reserves. So we are also: a Marine Raider, a platoon sergeant, an infantry officer. For those of us who might return to active duty, what does Paris mean?

As the dancing wound down and the wedding cake was eaten I found Sean. He hadn’t stopped smiling the whole night. I told him that I was heading back to my hotel, and he gave me a hug. After thanking me for coming, he grasped my hand. “Love you, brother. Be safe.” This is what we used to say before heading out on a mission. Hearing it on his wedding night felt like a punch to my stomach. I guess Sean had checked the headlines.

Elliot Ackerman served five tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, received the Silver Star, the Bronze Star for Valor, and the Purple Heart, and is the author of Green on Blue.
_____
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4725484,00.html

Opinion
Ron Ben-Yishai

Welcome to World War Three

Analysis: The Paris attack is directly tied to events in Syria and Iraq; this was not an intelligence failure but rather the failure of the West to see itself as in a total war vs. radical Islam.

Published: 11.14.15, 22:54 / Israel Opinion

It is time that we came to the realization: we are in the midst of World War III. A war that will differ from the others but will take place all over the globe, on land, air and sea. This is a war between jihadist Islam and Western civilization; a war between radical Islam and all those who refuse to surrender to its values and political demands.

•Follow Ynetnews on Facebook and Twitter

This war will, of course, have to be fought on the ground – with American, British and French divisions and tanks that will fight in Syria and Iraq, but also with security measures taken at border crossings and by special forces and intelligence agencies in Belgium, France and Germany as well as in the Philippines, China and Russia. This war will be conducted on the Mediterranean Sea as well as in the air with combat aircraft bombarding concentrations of ISIS and al-Qaeda fighters across Asia and Africa and security measures taken at airports and passenger aircraft worldwide. This is what the third world war will look like, which Israel has been a part of for a while now.

Indications from the Paris attack immediately pointed to Islamic State, and after they took responsibility for it – it is possible to discern the strategy set forth by the organization: Painful blows of terror at targets easy for them to operate in and which allow them to claim a mental victory with minimal effort and risk.

Paris terror attack

One can identify the beginning of the current offensive with the Russian plane explosion over Sinai three weeks ago. The Paris attack was directed according to the same strategy. It is likely that the attack had been planned over many months, but the background is the same as that of the plane attack: ISIS is now taking heavy blows in Syria and Iraq and is losing several of its important outposts in the heart of the Islamic caliphate it wants to establish.

Therefore ISIS is attacking its enemies’ rear and Europe, as usual, is the first to get hit. ISIS and al-Qaeda prefer striking in Europe because it is considered the cradle of Christianity and Islamic fundamentalist organizations still see it as the homeland of the Crusaders, who just as in the past, are at present waging a religious and cultural war on Islam. France and Paris were chosen as a target as France stood at the forefront of the cultural and religious struggle against radical Islam. It is also the easiest target to attack.

Why France?

France was the target of a combined assault of radical Islam not just because it has a tradition of human rights and freedom of movement, but because France and French culture symbolize everything that radical Islam is afraid of and is in an all-out war against. France enacted a ban on women to wear the hijab in public places, the Supreme Court allowed the magazine Charlie Hebdo to publish caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad and President Francois Hollande recently refused Iranian President Rouhani’s request to not have alcohol served at a dinner in his honor. All these are challenges to the jihadists that no one else in the West have yet dared emulate. So that is the primary reason that France mourns the murder of at least 129 people.

French headlines: "This time it's war", "War in central Paris"

The second reason is that France has the biggest and most established Muslim population in Europe that lives in large urban concentrations, mostly poor neighborhoods. These are ideal soil for the preaching of radical Islam in neighborhood mosques. The terrorists yesterday spoke French fluently and one can assume that at least some were French citizens of North African descent and other Muslim countries in Africa and Asia. They could thus assimilate into the population to choose destinations, collect information about them and flee from them after their attack.

It was not clear if all the terrorists were suicide bombers or whether some of them escaped. That is why the French government imposed a partial curfew and ordered troops into the streets in many cities, the same measures taken by Israel when the current wave of terrorism began. The aim is that the very presence of many security personnel can deter copycat attacks or the continuation of ongoing attacks.

The third reason is the fact that France is in the heart of Western Europe and it is surrounded by states with large Muslim immigrant communities. The freedom of movement between European countries as per the Schengen Agreement allows the jihadists to utilize these communities to both find terrorist fighters who have been through the baptism of fire in the Middle East and to smuggle weapons required to perform attacks.

One of the wounded in the Paris attack (Photo: Reuters)

Huge quantities of arms and ammunition arrive in Europe from Libya via Sicily, Malta, Greece and many other places. These Libyan weapons move like a deadly wave through Europe, are available to anyone interested in them and can be moved about without any difficulty, as we have seen in previous attacks, from state to state. The same is true with explosives, although terrorists are able to manufacture explosives from local products - acetone and hydrogen peroxide, for example. The information is available to everyone, and Hamas had already shown during the second intifada how to equip a terrorist with an explosive belt containing homemade explosives which are no less deadly. A similar process took place in Iraq, and now France is taking a hit from it.

Another reason for choosing France is that it is considered the center of and the pinnacle of European culture and it is to a great extent a world city of the first order. Therefore the attack there has the greatest effect on people’s consciousness. Horror is effectively spread. It appears that the attackers were equipped with the pages of messages that declared so that those victims who survive would be able to cite to a media thirsty for every detail. "You bomb us in Syria and we bomb you in Paris,” was heard.

Terror victim in Paris attack (Photo: Reuters)

They also were dressed in frightening clothing, right out of a Hollywood horror movie, but the weapons and explosives were real. ISIS mixes the virtual world with the real world fluidly and this is the secret of its success and its appeal to young Muslims in the West.

A change of perception needed

To carry out terrorist attacks in seven different locations requires lots of time and elaborate organization. One has to plan, to stockpile weapons and explosives, choose targets, collect information about the targets ahead of the attack, recruit attackers some of whom are willing to die in suicide attacks and tour the scene of the attack and prepare nearby before the actual attack. Therefore, it is reasonable to estimate that the attack was planned and prepared months ago and was kept on hold for a strategically opportune moment.

We need to prepare for further attacks not only in France, but throughout Europe. To this end, Europe will need to resume full control its borders and will having to boldly deal with the dilemma of protecting human and individual rights versus the need to provide security. So far EU countries have preferred, and they can’t be condemned for it, the individual liberty of citizens over the defense against terrorism. Now Europe and especially France will have to reach the conclusion that the most important individual right is the right to life.

There's no specific intelligence failure here but rather a total failure of perception that requires rethinking. The West will have to establish a joint intelligence apparatus that will perform assessments and issue immediate alerts - and this concerns not only France and Western Europe but also Russia, China and other countries. European countries will have to establish special forces and station them in large, as well as medium and small, urban concentrations to be able to react quickly to any warning or intelligence information.

The way Israel manages to gather intelligence and act on it quickly with the Border Police counter-terrorism unit and Shin Bet’s operational unit must serve as a model. It is clear that European bureaucrats, EU officials, will at first oppose the adoption of this model - but reality will probably force it upon them. They also will have to enact legislation to enable the mechanisms set up for intelligence gathering and rapid reaction to decisively prevent attacks before they occur and handle them quickly if they have already started to take place.

The world war between murderous fundamentalist Islam and Western civilization - and basically anyone and anything not Muslim – will have to be waged without compromise and without half-steps on land, air and sea. Brussels may not like it - but we're all in the same boat. And no, the current wave of terrorism has nothing to do with the "occupation of Palestine."
_____
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/427064/paris-terror-attacks-long-war-continues

National Review

The War That Hasn’t Ended

By Andrew C. McCarthy — November 13, 2015
Comments 1234

There is always the chance that the next attack will knock the scales from our eyes. Always the chance that we will realize the enemy is at war with us, even as we foolishly believe we can end the war by not fighting it, by surrendering.

As this is written, the death count in Paris is 158. That number will grow higher, and very many more will be counted among the wounded and terrorized.

“Allahu Akbar!” cried the jihadists as they killed innocent after French innocent. The commentators told us it means “God is great.” But it doesn’t. It means “Allah is greater!” It is a comparative, a cry of combative aggression: “Our God is mightier than yours.” It is central to a construction of Islam, mainstream in the Middle East, that sees itself at war with the West.

It is what animates our enemies.

Barack Obama tells us — harangues us — that he is the president who came to end wars. Is that noble? Reflective of an America that honors “our values”? No, it is juvenile.

In the real world, the world of aggression — not “micro-aggression” — you don’t get to end wars by pronouncing them over, or mistaken, or contrary to “our values.”

You end them by winning them . . . or losing them.

If you demonstrate that you are willing to lose, then you lose. If you sympathize with the enemy’s critique of the West on the lunatic theory that this will appease the enemy, you invite more attacks, more mass murder.

France is hoping the night’s bloodshed is done as it counts its dead. And perhaps it is for now. But the atrocities are not over, not even close.

In Paris, it has been but the blink of an eye since the Charlie Hebdo massacre, after which Western nations joined together in supposed solidarity, supporting the fundamental right to free expression.

That lasted about five minutes.

Intelligentsia on both sides of the Atlantic rationalized that, while we of course (ahem) champion free expression — “Je suis Charlie!” and all that — columnists and cartoonists who dare lampoon a totalitarian ideology are bringing the jihad on themselves.

It was a familiar story. In 2012, jihadists attacked an American compound in Benghazi, killing our ambassador and three other officials. The president responded by . . . condemning an anti-Muslim video that had nothing to do with the attack, and by proclaiming that “the future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam.”

Islamic supremacism killed Americans, and America’s president validated Islamic supremacism.

How did the French and the rest of the West react when jihadists attacked Charlie Hebdo in Paris?

After a fleeting pro-Western pose, they condemned . . . themselves.

What happened when American commentators who had spent years studying Islamic-supremacist ideology warned that mainstream Muslim doctrine was fueling jihad against the West?

The Obama administration — the president and his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton — reacted by targeting the messengers, not the aggressors.

Jihadist terror would be obfuscated by euphemisms like “violent extremism” and “workplace violence.” The critics of jihadist terror would be smeared as racist “Islamophobes.” Mrs. Clinton led the administration’s effort to portray examination of Islamic doctrine as hate speech, to brand commentary about radical Islam as illegal incitement.

Wouldn’t that be a betrayal of First Amendment free expression? If so, Mrs. Clinton declared, the government had other ways to suppress it. The administration, she said, would resort to extra-legal extortion: “old fashioned techniques of peer pressure and shaming.”

American government intimidation, not against the jihad but against opponents of the jihad. Could we tell the enemy any more clearly that we don’t think we are worth defending? Could we tell the enemy any more clearly that we are ripe for the taking?

Hard experience has taught us that when jihadists have safe haven, they attack the United States and our Western allies. But as ISIS and al Qaeda expand their safe haven in Syria and Iraq, we tell the world it is everyone else’s problem — the Kurds have to do the fighting, or the Yazidis, the Iraqis, the “rebels,” anyone but us.

As hundreds of thousands of refugees flee the region — many of them young, fighting-fit men whose potential terrorist ties cannot possibly be vetted — we encourage Europe to open its arms and borders to them, promising to open our own as well.

After all, to do otherwise would be to concede that the war is against us — and Obama is the president who “ends” war.

The enemy is not impressed. What Obama calls “ending” war the enemy sees as surrender, as the lack of a will to fight, much less to prevail.

So, as night follows day, the enemy attacked Paris tonight, yet again. Jihadists brazenly proclaimed that they were from Syria, spreading their jihad to France.

Obama responded by soft-peddling the atrocity as a “tragedy,” the acts of war as a “crime.”

A “crime” that tonight killed 158 people (and counting). A “crime” by “criminals” who vow more jihadist acts of war against Paris, Rome, London, Tel Aviv, and New York.

We did not ask for a war with jihadists. Years ago, they commenced a war of aggression against us. Pace Obama, you can’t end such a war by withdrawing, or by pretending it is just a crime. You end it by winning it or losing it.

The enemy senses that we are willing to lose it. Tonight, they pressed their advantage. It won’t be the last time.

— Andrew C. McCarthy is a policy fellow at the National Review Institute. His latest book is Faithless Execution: Building the Political Case for Obama’s Impeachment.
_____
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6136/instant_view_paris_attacks_west_s_ambiguity_on_jihad

INSTANT VIEW: Paris attacks, West's ambiguity on Jihad

The tragic terror attacks in Paris were all too predictable. The West has an ambiguous approach to the jihad, as we see over Israel, and a broad denial about what it is we are at war with

the commentator
On 13 November 2015 23:03
Comments 31

For the second time this year, the global jihad has come to Paris. Dozens have been slaughtered, and it may not be over yet. First thoughts, of course, go to the families.

As night turns into morning, there will be people in the French capital who still do not know if their loved ones are alive or dead.

But we must also turn our attention to the perpetrators. During and after the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January, France and much of the wider West descended into denial. Incredibly, political leaders and many journalists in the mainstream media described the events as "an attack on Islam".

The BBC was reluctant to even mention the Islamic motivations of the attackers.

We are at war. And if we frightened to name our enemies, it is a war we are going to lose.

Let us also recall that Western policy towards terrorism has been ambiguous, and nowhere has that ambiguity been more apparent than over the State of Israel, the front-line Western country in a decades-long struggle against the jihad.

Far too often -- and we have seen it in the recent (and ongoing) "knife intifada" -- mainstream media and political and societal leaders have drawn an equivalence between dead Israeli civilians and their murderous, Islamist killers.

Obviously, no-one should blame Muslims in general. Many thousands have themselves been killed by the Islamists. But Islamism is an outcrop of Islam and it is borderline insane to deny it.

Expect quite a lot of insanity from the mainstream West in the days and weeks to come.
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151114/eu--g-20-ca130cdcec.html

Turkey: Soldiers kill 4 suspected militants day before G-20

Nov 14, 1:01 PM (ET)
By BERZA SIMSEK and SUZAN FRASER

(AP) Japan{2019}s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, right, and his Turkish counterpart Ahmet...
Full Image

ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkish soldiers killed four suspected Islamic State militants Saturday and authorities detained 11 demonstrators a day before leaders of the G-20 group of economic powerhouses meet for a summit overshadowed by the slaughter in Paris.

The Anadolu Agency said two cars believed to be carrying IS militants approached an armored military vehicle, ignored warnings to stop and opened fire on the soldiers. The soldiers responded, killing four militants inside one of the cars; the second car escaped, Anadolu said.

The incident occurred close to a military border outpost near the town of Oguzeli, in Gaziantep province — some 700 kilometers (more than 400 miles) east of the Mediterranean coastal resort where U.S. President Barack Obama and other leaders of the world's top 20 economies will meet Sunday and Monday. Some of the leaders began arriving on Saturday.

Police arrested four demonstrators outside a domestic flights terminal at Antalya airport, near the conference venue, Anadolu said. "Murderer U.S. get out of the Middle East," said placards held up by protesters, the private Dogan news agency said.

(AP) Chinese President Xi Jinping, centre holding flowers, is surrounded by officials and...
Full Image

Seven other demonstrators were detained in Istanbul after protesting outside the German and British consulates.

The war in Syria — Turkey's neighbor — and Islamic extremism were already major items on the G-20 agenda, but they gained greater urgency following the terror attacks in Paris. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the deadliest attacks in France since World War II.

In a show of grief and solidarity with the victims, officials said Saturday that no music will be played at dinner or other events during the two-day gathering at the secluded seaside resort of Belek, near Antalya. French President Francois Hollande canceled his trip to the meeting.

Security appeared tight around the vast venue hosting the summit. On the road from the airport, hundreds of police personnel were posted every hundred meters, and special police units patrolled frequently.

Long queues of accredited vehicles came under close scrutiny with bomb-sniffing dogs checking for explosives and other hidden substances. Even after the security check point at the entrance to the main zone, metal detectors were installed in every building.

(AP) A man stands outside the French consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, Saturday, Nov. 14,...
Full Image

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose guests include Obama, Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping, has insisted that the perils posed by Syria are casting a shadow on world security and stability, and therefore on the global economy.

The spillover from Syria certainly poses a threat to Turkey. The IS group is blamed for two massive bombings — one in the Syrian border town of Suruc and in the capital Ankara — that killed about 130 people in July and October.

Turkish security forces have carried out sweeps against suspected IS militants in the weeks leading to the summit meeting, detaining dozens of people, including some 20 suspects who were nabbed in and around Antalya.

European governments are talking to Turkey about stemming the deluge of refugees spilling into Europe. The European Union has offered cash and promises of progress on Turkey's bid to join the club, in exchange for a greater effort to keep the migrants in Turkey. More than 2 million refugees are already in Turkey, which has spent more than $8 billion since 2011 caring for them.

"Of course the economy is the G-20's real reason for being but in our day it is not possible to consider the economy separately from politics, social developments and security," Erdogan said recently. "The Syrian issue has created humanitarian dimension, a terror dimension and economic impact."

---

Fraser reported from Ankara. David Keyton in Antalya contributed.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
6m
Photo: Houses marked 'Sunni' being set alight in Sinjar, Iraq - @sommervillebbc
 

Attachments

  • iraq nov 15 1.jpg
    iraq nov 15 1.jpg
    43.4 KB · Views: 78

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
6m
Photo: Houses marked 'Sunni' being set alight in Sinjar, Iraq - @sommervillebbc

And people though the Yugoslav "Civil War" was bad.....Heck given the opportunity the "parties" involved could make a stab at outdoing Rwanda.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
News_Executive ‏@News_Executive 4m4 minutes ago

BREAKING: Wikileaks say the will soon release 30 hours of tapes related to a billion dollar corruption scandal with links to the White House
 

vestige

Deceased
From somewhere above:


It is a war in which there is nothing to negotiate. There are no territorial demands to discuss, no acceptable political compromises. The enemy must be destroyed, using the full array of military, economic and intelligence means.

Slowly, very slowly, people are "getting it."
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151116/lt--brazil-mob_killing-f5d0f25ff1.html

Brazil police probing mob killing in Rio's Ipanema

Nov 16, 10:34 AM (ET)

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Rio de Janeiro police say they are investigating the apparent mob killing of a 33-year-old ice vendor in the heart of the Olympic city's Ipanema neighborhood.

The police said in an emailed statement Monday that they've spoken to witnesses and requested surveillance videos to help shed light on the circumstances of Fabiano Machado da Silva's death on Sunday.

Rio's O Globo daily newspaper reported that a crowd of around 10 people chased Silva through the expensive and exclusive beachside neighborhood. The report said the mob caught him at a central square and pummeled him with punches and kicks.

The paper quoted a police investigator as saying that passers-by later joined in on the beating.

It was not immediately clear what motivated the slaying.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/16/us-ukraine-crisis-conflict-idUSKCN0T512B20151116

World | Mon Nov 16, 2015 6:03am EST
Related: World

Ukraine says may return artillery to frontline if situation escalates

KIEV

Ukraine could return artillery to its eastern frontline if fighting with pro-Russian separatists escalates further, Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said on Monday after a weekend of the deadliest attacks in two months.

"If the situation escalates further our military commanders will be forced to return artillery and mortars to the first line of defense to defend Ukrainian positions and protect the lives of our servicemen," he said in a daily televised briefing.

(Reporting by Natalia Zinets; Writing by Alessandra Prentice)

______

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/16/g20-turkey-russia-ukraine-idUSL8N13B1LJ20151116

Bonds | Mon Nov 16, 2015 5:14am EST
Related: Bonds, Markets

UPDATE 2-G20- Russia's Siluanov says Moscow made offer to Ukraine over debt

(Adds background)

Nov 16 Russia wants to reach a compromise over Ukraine's debt to Russia and has made an "interesting" offer to settle the issue, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Monday.

The 11th-hour offer represents an apparent U-turn by Russia, which has been insisting for months that it expects Ukraine to repay the debt in full when it falls due next month and would treat any failure to do so as a default.

Siluanov did not provide any details about what the Russian offer involves, other than to say that Russia continues to regard restructuring on the same terms as commercial creditors as unacceptable.

Siluanov revealed the offer after a meeting with the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, who is also attending the Group of 20 summit in Turkey.

"Russia made an offer about the procedure for payment by Ukraine. This proposal will be interesting and placed at the basis of regulating (the debt)," Siluanov said on the sidelines of the summit. "We consider restructuring on the terms of commercial creditors unacceptable."

Russia lent Ukraine $3 billion by buying its Eurobonds in December 2013, three months before the overthrow of former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich.

The two neighbours have been at loggerheads over the issue since then, in the context of the wider deterioration in relations caused by Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Ukraine's east.

The political upheaval and war in Ukraine have caused a severe deterioration in government finances as a result of which Ukraine needed a new bail-out from the IMF, which insisted on a restructuring of government debts.

Ukraine reached a deal with commercial bondholders in August, under which they agreed to a debt swap which includes a 20 percent writedown on the principal and coupon cuts.

Russia has repeatedly insisted that the Ukrainian bonds it holds are not subject to the restructuring agreement because they represent a loan from a sovereign creditor.

It has threatened to take Ukraine to court if it fails to redeem the bonds in full when they mature on Dec. 20.

Ukraine insists that it cannot offer Russia better terms than its other creditors -- a position that Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalia Yaresko reiterated last week.

"It's not a matter of compromise ... The legal structure of the restructuring for all the Eurobonds has a most-favoured creditor clause that says that we cannot provide better terms for any holdouts," Yaresko said in an interview with Reuters.

"Therefore that is the structure within which we will have to work."

Yaresko also said she was willing to meet her Russian counterpart and that she would "continue in good faith to try and reach some type of agreement".

Russia's offer follows signs the IMF is preparing to change its rules over debts to sovereign creditors, in effect refusing to support Russia in its claims against Ukraine, even though the Fund' rules say it cannot lend to countries which are in arrears to other governments.

Russia has criticised the proposed rule changes. "We are concerned that the changes in the policy of the Fund are forced in the context of a very politicised issue of restructuring of the Ukrainian debt," Siluanov said on Oct. 30. (Reporting by Denis Dyomkin, writing by Jason Bush; Editing by Catherine Evans)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
November Sierra..........

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/17/w...mood-toward-islam-emerges-in-france.html?_r=0

Europe

After Paris Attacks, a Darker Mood Toward Islam Emerges in France

By ADAM NOSSITER and LIZ ALDERMAN
NOV. 16, 2015

PARIS — November is not January. That thought has been filtering through the statements of most French politicians and the news media, and most people seem to understand.

Unlike the response in January after attacks at the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo and elsewhere left 17 dead, there were no grand public appeals for solidarity with Muslims after the Friday attacks that left 129 dead in Paris. There were no marches, few pleas not to confuse practitioners of Islam with those who preach jihad.

Instead, there was a palpable fear, even anger, as President François Hollande asked Parliament to extend a state of emergency and called for changing the Constitution to deal with terrorism. It was largely unspoken but nevertheless clear: Secular France had always had a complicated relationship with its Muslim community, but now it was tipping toward outright distrust, even hostility.

Attacks in Paris

Complete coverage of the shootings across Paris, Europe’s worst terrorist attack in 11 years.

After Paris Attacks, ‘La Marseillaise’ Echoes Around the World in Solidarity NOV 16

What Travelers Can Expect in Paris NOV 16

After Paris Attacks, C.I.A. Director Rekindles Debate Over Surveillance NOV 16

John Kerry Arrives in Paris to Show ‘Shared Resolve’ After Attacks NOV 16

The Attacks in Paris Reveal the Strategic Limits of ISIS NOV 16

See More »

The shift could be all the more tempting because the government is struggling to find its footing politically as it is threatened on its far right by the anti-immigrant National Front party.

Already, tough talk from officials in the government shows them shifting rightward, calling for new scrutiny of mosques, extending the state of emergency and possibly placing restrictions on the 10,000 or more people loosely indexed as possible threats to the state. France needs to “expel all these radicalized imams,” Prime Minister Manuel Valls declared Saturday.

France had already been expelling handfuls of imams in recent years. But the attacks have not ceased, and experts point out that the paths to radicalization more typically run through the prisons or the war in Syria, not the mosques. At the same time, there are whiffs of hardening feelings — mosque desecrations over the weekend, and harsh words between non-Muslims and Muslims in the crowds mourning.

The concern among Muslims in France is palpable. “We’re already feeling the backlash. It started right away,” said Latetia Syed, 17, whose family gathered on Sunday near the Bataclan concert hall, where 89 people were killed on Friday, to pay respect to the victims. “There was a flood of violent language on Facebook to kill Muslims.”

France’s imams “are all worried,” said Hassen Farsadou, the head of a group of Muslim associations in the Paris suburbs. “We are trying to figure out how to handle this.”

Fear and suspicion are pervasive. “Today, I went to the gym, and I was wearing my helmet,” said Aykut Kasaroglu, a shop worker in the immigrant-rich Montreuil district. “The policeman stopped me and told me to take it off so they could see me. Everyone is suspicious.”

The grim public mood, with hardened jaws and frowns on the emptied streets, is bubbling up. Deep shades of distinction that previously separated France’s political groupings — left, right and far right — on how to handle the terrorist threat, or even how to deal with France’s large Muslim community, are blurring.

“We know, and it is cruel to say it, that on Friday it was French who killed other French,” Mr. Hollande told a rare joint emergency session of Parliament on Monday. “There are, living on our soil, individuals who from delinquency go on to radicalization and then to terrorist criminality.”

Similar words, references to France’s “enemy within,” recently have provoked an uproar, particularly on the left. But this time Mr. Hollande’s speech was met with universal applause, a singing of the national anthem and some rare praise from the far-right National Front leader, Marine Le Pen.

As for the audience newly receptive to Ms. Le Pen, “certainly it will grow,” said Bernard Godard, a leading French expert on Franco-Muslim relations and former Interior Ministry official.

Anti-Muslim feelings that had been kept under wraps may no longer be so discreet, Mr. Godard suggested. On Sunday, tensions flared when a Frenchman, approaching a group of Muslim women in head scarves who were paying homage to the Bataclan victims at a makeshift shrine, began inveighing against the Quran as a source of inspiration for extremists.

“The Quran says that nobody can take a life,” said one of the women, Abiba Trabacke, who was wearing a blue head scarf. She likened the killers to Nazis, adding: “They have nothing to do with us.”

But the man persisted, and several women in the entourage burst into tears. “We are calling for peace and love,” one said.

“Shut up!” a bystander yelled at them. “This is not the time to get into this.”

Mrs. Trabacke turned to the growing crowd. “You see this head scarf that I’m wearing?” she asked. “This is my conviction; it comes from God.”

How this might play out in coming weeks is hinted at in rapidly evolving propositions for how best to use the notorious “S files,” an index of thousands of people considered possible threats to the state — on the basis of dubious associations, for instance, or even online threats? At least one of the attackers at the Bataclan, Ismaël Omar Mostefaï, was on the S list; so were the two brothers who shot up Charlie Hebdo in January and a train attacker thwarted by three Americans in August.

Each time, there has been an outcry in France over why a dangerous individual known to the state was not stopped beforehand. Each time officials have explained that a place in the S files is not the basis for an arrest.

Since Friday, there have been the customary calls from the right and far right for crackdowns on the lists’s members, with a top National Front functionary on television Monday seeming to call for imprisoning all of them. The former President Nicolas Sarkozy suggested electronic monitoring. But this time the left-wing government was careful not to dismiss a heightened role for the S files.

“You can’t dismiss any tool,” Mr. Valls, the prime minister, said on radio about the files. “We are not setting aside any solutions.” As his boss, Mr. Hollande, put it to lawmakers on Monday, “With the acts of war of Nov. 13, the enemy has crossed a new line.”

The question, rights advocates say, is how far the government can go in restricting the rights of a mostly law-abiding minority without further alienating its more marginal members and driving them to the militants.

The Socialist government, with its intensified bombing campaign in Syria and its promises of an internal crackdown, is trying to stay ahead of a deeply uneasy public. But experts say its efforts may not be enough.

Ms. Le Pen’s criticism of Mr. Hollande on Monday may be more significant than her unusual praise. The president had failed to mention the “fight against Islamism” or the “indispensable cleaning out of the cellars and suburbs gangrened by criminality,” she said. In the National Front lexicon, Ms. Le Pen’s words — “suburbs” and “criminality” — are often code for Islam and Muslims.

“There is a serious risk, in public opinion, that people will become more radical,” Mr. Godard said. “Maybe people will now say, ‘No, no, no Islam in the public space, not anymore.’”

Reporting was contributed by Nabih Bulos, Alissa J. Rubin, Elian Peltier and Aurelien Breeden.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...s_surrender_to_taliban_in_helmand_108686.html

November 15, 2015

Afghan Troops Surrender to Taliban in Helmand

By Bill Roggio

Sixty-five Afghan soldiers and several of their officers laid down their weapons two days ago and surrendered to the Taliban in the embattled district of Sangin in the southern province of Helmand. Some reports suggested that the Afghan troops defected to the Taliban, but the jihadist group has indicated that the troops merely laid down their arms.

The Afghan company’s surrender was confirmed by both Afghan officials and the Taliban. Helmand governor Mirza Rahimi told reporters that “65 Afghan security force members including three commanders surrendered in Sangin district,” TOLONews reported. Oddly enough, he stated that “the situation is under control in the district.”

The Taliban reported yesterday that “5 commander [sic] and 65 ANA [Afghan National Army] trooper [sic] from an outpost located in Station area repented their mistakes and surrendered to Mujahideen on Thursday at around 05:00 am local time.”

The Afghan soldiers handed over “5 APCs, 3 mortar tubes, 2 SPG9 artillery pieces, 18 US machine guns, 50 US rifles and a large amount of ammunition and other equipment,” the Taliban reported on its official website, Voice of Jihad.

The Taliban apparently had laid siege to the base for two weeks before the Afghan soldiers abdicated. A mother of one of the soldiers claimed the base was under attack for 15 days before the soldiers quit the fight, and that the Afghan military and police did not intervene to save them.

Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense has denied that its soldiers in Sangin surrendered to the Taliban. “Our troops will never surrender to the enemy,” the ministry’s spokesman said to TOLONews.”There might be some problems. This is war. Moving forward and backwards, defending and leaving strongholds can happen in war and they are allowed to do this.”

Sangin is one of several districts in Helmand that are hotly contested. The Taliban has released numerous statements about the fighting there, and just yesterday claimed to have overrun “2 more check posts … located near the old hospital and Eid Gah area of the district bazaar.”

In Helmand, the Taliban controls or contests six of the province’s 13 districts, according to data compiled by The Long War Journal. All of the districts due north of the provincial capital of Laskhar Gah — Sangin, Baghran, Musa Qala, Kajaki, and Now Zad — are controlled or heavily contested by the jihadist group. The Taliban uses these districts to assemble its forces and assault Lashkar Gah and neighboring districts. Taliban forces are currently positioned in Marja and Babaji, just miles from Lashkar Gah.

If Lashkar Gah falls to the Taliban, it would be the second city to do so this year. Kunduz fell under Taliban control for two weeks before the jihadist forces were driven from the city. Lashkar Gah is not the only provincial capital facing a direct threat. One month ago, the Taliban pressed an offensive to take control of Ghazni city but failed to do so; Taliban forces remain on the outskirts of the city. Additionally, Tarin Kot, the capital of Uruzgan province, which borders Helmand to the north, is also imperiled. Four of the six districts in Uruzgan are heavily contested by the Taliban.

The situation in southern Afghanistan has deteriorated since the US military began withdrawing its forces beginning in 2012. Jihadist groups have become emboldened as Afghan forces have been unable to prevent the return of the Taliban. Al Qaeda was so confident that it established two training camps, one of them extending for 30 square miles, in Kandahar’s Shorabak district. The US military destroyed the camps during a four-day assault in October.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of The Long War Journal.


This article originallyl appear at the Long War Journal.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/wal-mart-uprising-the-battle-for-labor-rights-in-china/

Wal-Mart Uprising: The Battle for Labor Rights in China

Wal-Mart is the latest frontier in China’s nascent labor rights movement.

By Linda van der Horst
November 14, 2015

559 Shares
11 Comments

When Zhang Jun, a 44-year old electrician at Wal-Mart (China) Investment Co., Ltd. in Shandong, east of Beijing, shared his association’s Weibo blog, featuring a Mao-era propaganda poster, he was trying to make a point.

In it, Mao beams over a group of mobilized workers. A caption reads: “The working class must lead everything.” Zhang is not a fan of Mao, or his trade unions, but he is trying to revive a Maoist dictum in a cat-and-mouse game with both China’s only legal trade union and his capitalist bosses in Bentonville, Arkansas.

Zhang’s loosely defined movement — the “Wal-Mart China Staff Association” — is neither huge nor high profile, and it doesn’t have a national political agenda. But the activists involved are no longer just focused on specific workplace grievances. Instead, they are fighting for workers’ rights to organize a real union with teeth: namely, collective bargaining power.

And while this transition is standard in the history of labor movements around the world, the fight of activists like Zhang in China is unique. They are trying to re-code the only union that’s allowed to exist in China, the so-called All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU). As a socialist institution, it was a conduit for the Communist Party to its large working class, as opposed to a trade union with collective bargaining power that represents workers’ interests. As a result, the ACFTU has mostly stood on the sidelines as protests and collective strikes have intensified and increased in frequency.

Prompted by signs that Beijing’s central leadership is urging the 200-million member ACFTU to reform, Zhang and a small cadre of like-minded organizers are applying pressure on the ACFTU from below — demanding democratic elections of the grassroots layers of the ACFTU at their respective Wal-Mart stores, which they claim have been illegally controlled by Wal-Mart’s management since unionization in 2006.

Wal-Mart is the latest frontier in a series of incidents where pioneers like Zhang Jun, who are experienced in activism and educate other workers on their labor rights, are pushing the envelope to apply pressure on the ACFTU to reform from below.

“In five to ten years, (Chinese) workers will be able to reclaim the union through collective bargaining, and that [would be] the biggest national union on earth with bargaining power,” says Han Dongfang, founder and executive director at China Labor Bulletin, a non-governmental organization in Hong Kong.

Growing labor activism could also make it harder for employers to manage costs as China’s economy slows. Wal-Mart itself is already grappling with such pressures elsewhere: its share price is yet to recover from last month when it reported that higher wages had hurt its bottom line. That’s largely a North American problem – the retailer has more than 6,000 stores there – but it still has 100,000 employees in about 400 stores in China, 19 years after entering the Chinese market.

Wal-Mart also became the first foreign company to accept unionization in China in 2006. But since unionization, the ACFTU has been standing on the sidelines, say Wal-Mart labor activists. Although several municipal-level branches of the ACFTU convinced Wal-Mart in 2008 to raise its wages by eight percent both in 2008 and 2009, Wal-Mart labor activists claim that otherwise Wal-Mart’s wages have stagnated since unionization.

This is because, Wal-Mart activists argue, the enterprise union committees are controlled by management-appointed representatives, so-called “yellow union committees.” China’s labor laws and ACFTU policy theoretically allow workers to directly elect their own representatives in these enterprise unions, but in practice, Wal-Mart’s activists claim that the elections are held in secret, with Wal-Mart appointing its own representatives.

The company wouldn’t comment on the election of its ACFTU locals, or on specific labor disputes. But Marilee McInnis, Director of International Corporate Affairs at Wal-Mart, says that the company’s policy is to “protect the interest of associates [i.e. employees] while promoting the sustainable development of the company, provide competitive wages, and have resources in place to train and develop associates.”

There are signs that the ACFTU itself may be primed to change from the highest levels in Beijing. In 2013 Chinese president Xi Jinping explicitly asked the ACFTU to “protect workers’ interests and promote social justice to win public trust and support,” and to set up trade unions as a genuine “home for employees.”

Local governments, in particular in Guangdong, have recently introduced new regulations that allow for “collective consultation,” the Chinese version of collective bargaining. And while there are still many caveats to these regulations, it is a move in the direction of strengthening the position of workers.

But Wal-Mart’s activists do not want to wait for the slow-moving ACFTU to reform.

Enter the Staff Association, which Zhang Jun founded in mid-2014. By day, Zhang works as an electrician at Wal-Mart’s Yantai store, in Shandong province in China’s northeast. In his spare time, through his association, he advises Wal-Mart workers across China on how to put local employees truly in charge of their ACFTU enterprise union, using lessons he learns at workshops organized by labor groups in Hong Kong.

In doing so, he’s taking on both Wal-Mart, and the Beijing-induced presumption that the ACFTU obey its whims. “Years of anger over Wal-Mart’s illegal suppression and manipulation of the trade unions, and exploitation of employees, is now bursting out,” writes Zhang on the association’s micro-blog.

Labor activists in China say that Wal-Mart has responded to such efforts by firing activists like Wang Shishu, a Wal-Mart worker in his mid-50s. Wang lost his job in 2012 after organizing workers in Shenzhen, the mainland boomtown next to Hong Kong, to demand better wages.

If firing activists is part of a strategy, it may be backfiring by placing the issue of workers’ rights squarely in front of Chinese courts. Wang sued Wal-Mart in 2012 for wrongful dismissal and won his job back. Then he lost his Wal-Mart job again after resuming his labor activism, according to a China Labor Bulletin account. He is now taking Wal-Mart to court again, alongside Yu Zhiming, one of the few democratically elected worker representatives at a Shenzhen store. Yu was dismissed in March 2015 after his enterprise union committee opposed a new Wal-Mart rule that would simplify dismissals.

Duan Yi, a Guangdong-based labor lawyer, says that in the past six years he has helped over 100 Wal-Mart employees who have lost their Wal-Mart jobs after attending labor rights workshops or marching in protests for things like higher wages. The “Wal-Mart union never spoke up when Wal-Mart laid off their employees in the past,” he says. But now, Wal-Mart is stuck between a rock and a hard place: outspoken Wal-Mart activists are demanding that the enterprise union be democratically elected, and Wal-Mart does not get a free pass to rid itself of them.

Now the battle has shifted to Wal-Mart’s Store 1059 in Shenzhen. Wal-Mart workers there are currently challenging the results of elections, claiming they are “yellow union committees.” Zhang Liya, a Wal-Mart activist in the Staff Association and senior employee at Wal-Mart’s store 1059, announced in September that he will put himself forward as candidate for the enterprise union’s presidency whilst also campaigning for democratic elections to be held. He actually thought it worthwhile to write an open letter to leaders of the ACFTU higher up, including the Shenzhen branch, for help, through the Staff Association; they say they haven’t heard back.

Navigating the murky waters of labor activism in China remains a delicate balancing act for pioneers like Zhang Jun. Earlier this year, ACFTU vice-chairman Li Yufu said in an interview with a political magazine that “hostile foreign forces” are infiltrating the Chinese labor movement, which “are attempting to wreck the solidarity of the working class and trade union unity with the help of some illegal ‘rights’ organizations and activists,” the Financial Times reported. Activists like Zhang are often assisted and trained by labor groups both inside and outside China. Although it is Zhang and his Staff Association’s aim to organize within the ACFTU, they also seek support from international labor organizations, such as China Labor Bulletin. Zhang has even been writing to the American trade union, the AFL-CIO. A new draft law for foreign NGOs that introduces a high level of state oversight of foreign NGOs will further complicate support that activists such as Zhang receive in China.

Labor lawyer Duan Yi believes that the Wal-Mart activists “should at least be able to achieve an elected labor union committee this year,” but he foresees that “those union members need more organization and training in the future, which they currently lack.” The next hurdle, Han of China Labor Bulletin says, will be better protecting local representatives once they are elected.

Wal-Mart may not care much about the China activists, says Anita Chan, a scholar on China’s labor issues and Wal-Mart’s in particular, but it “may have a wider impact within China.” Through the Staff Association, workers across China’s stores are following the developments at store 1059 in Shenzhen. Successful experiences are quickly shared among workers on social media, especially within organizations such as Zhang Jun’s.

Although the labor movement is still in its infancy, says Chan, “in a little over a decade, starting with scant awareness of labor rights and trade unionism as a vehicle for change, workers’ consciousness of the importance of collective representation in the form of democratically elected trade unionism is emerging.”

Zhang, the Staff Association founder, is hopeful: “Our cooperation can bring about extraordinary history, which is achieved through an accumulation of small things brought about by ordinary people like us.”

Linda van der Horst holds a Master’s degree in Modern Chinese Studies from the University of Oxford. She is a lawyer in the U.K. and currently a journalism fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs. You can follow her on Twitter: @LindaXiaXian
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/kyrgyzstan-and-the-islamists/

Kyrgyzstan and the Islamists

While detained in a Kyrgyzstan prison cell, our reporter speaks with some former ISIS members.

By Umar Farooq
November 16, 2015

565 Shares
0 Comments

On October 7, a judge in southern Kyrgyzstan sentenced one of the country’s most prominent imams, Rashat Kamalov, to five years in prison for “inciting religious hatred” and “possessing extremist materials” – part of what prosecutors say was a scheme for sending recruits to Syria to join the Islamic State. Officials with the State Committee on National Security (GKNB), the successor to the KGB in Kyrgyzstan, say up to 500 locals have gone to join ISIS, most from the Uzbek ethnic minority in the south, from congregations like those led by Kamalov.

Security officials though have cast a wide net, and along with clerics like Kamalov, they have cracked down on journalists, lawyers, and human rights groups.

Earlier this year I traveled to Osh to report on the charges against Kamalov. For a brief time, I was facing some of the same charges as those leveled against ISIS suspects, specifically of possessing extremist materials and seeking to overthrow the constitutional order, in my case through the media

Lured to Syria

“We thought we would be fighting infidels, but we were fighting other Muslims,” Abdullah, 26, told me in the GKNB prison cell we shared for three days in Osh. Six months ago Abdullah quit ISIS and returned home from Syria. “It wasn’t what I expected.”

Clean-shaven, broad-shouldered, and tall, the ethnic Uzbek wore black rain boots – he had been arrested, along with four friends, from work, a carwash, the same day. They were scattered, along with dozens of other detainees, in eight cells.

Abdullah was lured to Syria by a Salafi cleric called Abu Muslim who ran a private madrassa out of his home in a village outside of Osh. “He told us the Muslims in Syria needed our help, there was a jihad there, and we could practice Islam there in its true form.” Leaving his young bride and his blind, diabetic mother, Abdullah flew to Istanbul, and a day later was smuggled into the ISIS capitol of Al-Raqqa.

Abu Muslim had opened a madrassa near Raqqa for Russian-speaking recruits – more than 150 – and Abdullah spent 10 months there learning Arabic and the ISIS ideology. The food was meager – Syrian flat bread and olive oil – and Abdullah told me he never saw any combat. When they decided it was time to leave, Abu Muslim helped them get out, telling ISIS commanders the men were going to Turkey to get married.

In a separate facility a stone’s throw away was a cell holding Rashat Kamalov, who led a congregation of tens of thousands of people from a mosque in Kara Suu, a city straddling the border with Uzbekistan, 30 km north of Osh.

I had visited Kamalov’s mosque a few days earlier, where the GKNB agents who would detain me on my last day in Osh, had first begun to tail me.

Climbing to the third story of the massive mosque, I could look down upon hundreds of Uzbeks wrapping up their prayers in the courtyard below, and on the other side, across a stream, at Uzbekistan. Uzbek soldiers watched the mosque from their post at the head of a bridge that until 1991 connected the two halves of Kara Suu, when the two countries split from the former Soviet Union.

Kyrgyzstan has seen two popular revolutions since then, but Uzbekistan has always been led by one man, Islam Karimov, who has systematically eradicated his critics, especially since 9/11, using an inflated threat of Islamic extremism. More than 10,000 now languish in Uzbekistan’s prisons, and millions have fled the country, some joining communities like the one in Kara Suu.

When Karimov’s soldiers opened fire on thousands of civilians in the town of Andijan in 2005, just across the border, Rashad Kamalov’s father, who led the same mosque, helped shelter hundreds of them with local Uzbek families.

Shortly after the massacre, Tashkent and Bishkek announced they would be cooperating on tracking down Islamic militants, especially members of Hizb ut-Tahrir, a global political movement seeking to reestablish the Caliphate. Kamalov’s father was killed in what is likely a joint Uzbek-Kyrgyz security operation in Osh in 2006, and his son Rashad took over the mosque.

The Uzbek minority that is native to southern Kyrgyzstan has had trouble with its own government. In June 2010, rumors of a planned Uzbek separatist movement sparked ethnic riots that killed more than 400 Uzbeks in Osh and the surrounding countryside. Kyrgyz mobs backed by military helicopters and armored personnel carriers laid waste to centuries-old Uzbek neighborhoods.

Questionable Prosecutions

Events like the 2010 clashes have made Kyrgyzstan’s human rights activists skeptical of the benefit of popular revolutions. Tolekan Ismailova, one of the country’s best known rights activists, helped document the involvement of security forces in the 2010 clashes, then had to leave the country for a few months.

“They say you are not Kyrgyz,” Ismailova told me in Bishkek, days after her office had been ransacked by right-wing groups for the second time in a year.

Activists like Ismailova have found themselves being prosecuted for “religious extremism” for what would normally be considered liberal issues, in a bizarre and telling pattern that raises issues about the prosecution of ostensibly jihadist suspects like Kamalov.

In 2012, Ismailova’s organization, Bir Duino (One World) planned to screen a documentary about gay Muslims, titled I Am Muslim and I Am Gay.

Based on the film’s content, the GKNB asked prosecutors to charge Ismailova with being a religious extremist and inciting religious hatred – the same charges leveled against Kamalov. Officials said the charges were made after the film was screened by Kyrgyzstan’s State Commission of Religious Affairs, a body of ostensibly knowledgeable experts on Islam.

Prosecutors routinely ask the body to review evidence – phone recordings, emails, books, and other materials – seized from the suspect. “They said they reviewed the Quran and found I am a religious extremist,” Ismailova told me. “It’s funny, I want to show a film about gays and I am an extremist.”

The trial of Kamalov, for instance, relied heavily on the testimony of government-appointed experts, who examined his statements and concluded he was supporting ISIS.

“We have a large network of radical Islamists, and they really look to disturb things, they say they do not want a secular state,” Ismailova admitted. “But when the GKNB targets minorities, people like Kamalov, or human rights activists, we understand they are not looking for any real extremists.”

The charges against Ismailova were eventually thrown out, but the tactics have been employed by the GKNB since, especially against Bir Duino, which runs a network of lawyers working pro bono on behalf of hundreds of those accused of violence in the 2010 clashes, as well as those who have lately been ensnared in the dragnet against ISIS.

In Osh, I met with Valerian Vakhitov and Khusanbay Saliev, two well-known human rights lawyers with Bir Duino representing ISIS suspects. The pair now faces charges of possessing extremist material themselves – documents like witness testimony or recordings of their clients, things they naturally need to defend their clients.

Some clients are actually former ISIS members – young men like Sardar, a 23-year-old Uzbek who spent a few days in Syria in 2013. After the building next to his safe house in Aleppo exploded one night, Sardar decided the war was not for him, and fled back home. Others seem motivated but incompetent. Iqbal jan and Yusupov Ahmed, both 18 years old, showed up at the Bishkek airport one day and started asking about flights to Syria.

Still others have more tenuous connections – several suspects were arrested by the GKNB after they were found with jihadist propaganda on their smart phones, or in social media profiles. Simply having an image of the logo of a banned outfit is a serious crime in Kyrgyzstan. Dozens have been detained for alleged ties to ISIS based solely on suspicious interactions with the GKNB on Facebook or its Russian equivalent, Adnavaste.

Journalists who have reported on the GKNB have been targeted as well. “To catch suspects, they put up photos of themselves with beards, or hijabs, or weapons, then write to them saying ‘do you want to go to Syria?,’ ” Shohrukh Saipov, an investigative journalist in Osh told me.

Saipov has documented a number of cases where police have arrested suspects through such social media connections, hoping to come up with more evidence after detention. “If they can’t find other evidence, they ask people for money, $500 to $2,000.” In May 2014, Saipov wrote a story detailing corruption in the police as well as the GKNB, which interrogated him and then fought a short-lived libel suit over the story.

During my last meeting with him, Vakhitov reluctantly handed me the indictments for a few clients, along with an expert opinion from the State Commission of Religious Affairs used to argue that Kamalov was an extremist. “Please be careful with these, if they catch you I am not sure how to help you,” he told me. Two Westerners before me had been detained by the GKNB recently when they looked into the ISIS problem, and Vakhitov was convinced I would be next.

The Caliphate

“Do you believe in the caliphate?,” asked Assylbek Kozhobekov, the GKNB head in Osh, a short, well-built man who was trying to explain his job to me, 48 hours after I was detained. Along with the documents from Kamalov’s case, police in Osh had planted DVDs of the Imam’s sermons on me, and the State Commission of Religious Affairs had provided its standard one paragraph finding to prosecutors concluding I was carrying extremist material.

The official case against Rashat Kamalov itself rests on a sermon he gave last year on the idea of the caliphate.

“Kamalov said the Prophet Muhammad taught us a caliphate will come, towards the end of times, and if someone doesn’t believe in this he is not a Muslim,” Abdulqadir, a long-time member of the Kara Suu congregation told me before my arrest. “Government-appointed imams never speak about the caliphate, because Hizb ul Tahrir wants it [the Caliphate]. Someone recorded the sermon..Kamalov’s sermons are sold on the streets.”

Hizb ul Tahrir’s generations-long ideological battle for a caliphate is unlikely to bear fruit any time soon, but its pipe-dream has earned it the enmity of Central Asia’s security agencies. Thousands of alleged members have been imprisoned across Central Asia, but the organization works openly in Europe and Turkey.

“There is no caliphate in Islam,” Kozhobekov told me shortly before I was released. He drew me a map of the region, Kyrgyzstan a round blob encroached upon by extremists in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and militant Uyghurs in China, an island of stability that sat, for his taste, far too close to Afghanistan and Pakistan. “Hizb ul Tahrir is the first step towards creating ISIS here.”

But Hizb ul Tahrir members point out they have officially condemned ISIS and its self-declared caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

“Baghdadi claims he is a caliph,” Abdulqadir told me, “but our Prophet told us when there is a caliphate everyone will accept it. ISIS has cheated people, they have killed many Muslims.”

Others insist Kamalov discouraged people from traveling to Syria. “When young people came to him to ask for advice, Kamalov told them you have parents here, they need you and the money you earn, staying here is an obligation for you,” Ayyub, the regional head of HuT, told me in Kara Suu.

“Kamalov told people not to join ISIS,” Abdullah, the former ISIS fighter said. “He had a large mosque, maybe there were some people [who agreed with ISIS] there, but Kamalov was not sending people to Syria.”

For rights activists like Ismailova, Kamalov’s prosecution is not because he was encouraging locals to join ISIS. They say he was prosecuted because he was critical of the GKNB’s tactics.

Weeks before he was targeted, Kamalov was a participant in a roundtable that talked about why people left for Syria, Ismailova explained. “He said to officials in the meeting, sometimes you come and raid homes at 4 a.m., you take bribes from innocent people, only because they are religious. You are making it like a prison for them here.”

Umar Farooq is based in Pakistan, where he works as a correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor and the Wall Street Journal. He has also written for The Atlantic, Foreign Policy, The Globe and Mail, and The Nation.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
In light of the posting about the US looking at placing the IRR into the "Total Force" and that the French ended conscription with the Cold War this is a very relevant article as to what the minimums needed vs what's actually available....And of course the author is assuming that anyone is looking at a "normal" COIN/LIC and not a more "firepower" oriented operation to let the local parties regain advantage to take over....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://news.vice.com/article/franc...-on-the-ground-to-kick-the-islamic-states-ass

Defense & Security

France Just Can't Put Enough Boots on the Ground to Wipe Out the Islamic State

By Ryan Faith
November 16, 2015 | 1:05 pm
Comments 102

In the immediate aftermath of Friday's attacks across Paris, French President François Hollande announced that France is "at war" with the Islamic State, and will see to its destruction. The problem is that the first battle France is going to face will be between this stated goal and its practicality.

Historically, France values its independence and sovereignty very highly, and remains the most heavily armed European nation. Then-President Charles de Gaulle took France out of NATO in 1966, following a dispute over control of the French nuclear arsenal, and today, it is the only other country in the world besides the US that operates a nuclear aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle. France has also taken upon itself the responsibility for maintaining European space launch capability, because it views access to space as integral to maintaining national sovereignty.

This national emphasis on sovereignty means that, from a political perspective, France will have no choice other than to respond very decisively and very visibly. There is simply no way for a French politician not to do that after the size of Friday's attacks. Hollande's comments about destroying IS and being "ruthless" are exactly what one might expect in the face of a terrorist attack of this scale.

France has a sizable, powerful military with very modern, very high-tech equipment, and a respectable nuclear arsenal. Moreover, it is (once again) a member of NATO, one of the largest and most successful military alliances in recent memory.

However, this intent is going to run headlong into the realities of modern warfare and budgets. Counterinsurgencies are typically very labor-intensive — sometimes even more than fighting a traditional conventional war of pitched battles.

According to 2015 French defense statistics, the French Army had a force of 111,628 in 2014, with another 15,453 in reserves. Minus the Paris Fire Brigade (which is part of the army), Hollande has, very roughly, 120,000 soldiers at his disposal if he pulls in all French forces from around the globe.

The first part of Hollande's problem is how armies fight short fights versus long, drawn-out, knock-down fights.

In the case of a dire national emergency, you can send everyone to the front. At the other end, for a typical long-run fight where you have to rotate troops in and out of the theater of war, only about a third of the troops will be fighting at any one time. As that third fights, a third are coming back and being replenished and resupplied, while another third are training up and getting ready to deploy. Real numbers vary somewhat, but this is a rough estimate. That means that starting with 120,000 soldiers, the French Army could put some 40,000 boots on the ground for an extended fight.

Related: Here's What US Boots on the Ground in Syria Really Means

This leads to the question of how many you really need. If this were a regular pitched-battle, conventional-war kind of fight, 40,000 troops on offense can take on one-third that many (call it 13,500) who are on the defense. Which is actually a bit better than the 10,000 or so that the Islamic State can put in the field right now. Without getting into lengthy pros and cons, the IS guys are a pretty credible light infantry, but aren't quite up to speed with complex maneuvers and combined-arms operations. So, all other things being equal, the French military should be able to defeat IS in any kind of conventional fight.

But the problem is that IS doesn't always fight like that — it fights mostly like an insurgency. The most common way of calculating the number of troops needed to wage a counterinsurgency campaign is soldiers per 1,000 locals. In a really brutal fight, like Algeria's war of independence which France fought (and lost) in the 1950s and '60s, the French needed 46.3 soldiers per thousand locals. The lowest ratio for a significant post-World War II insurgency gets down to 2.6 soldiers per thousand.

Syria had a prewar population of about 22 million. Now, between deaths and refugees, that number is closer to 16 million. If you take the most benign possible scenarios, France would have just enough troops to fight a nationwide counterinsurgency: they'd have to come up with a constant presence of 43,160 troops to keep a lid on Syria. But at the ugly end of the spectrum, that number explodes to 768,580 — which is more than the US and French armies combined.

In essence, France fighting alone would have a good shot at taking Raqqa, the de-facto IS capital, but would have a hard time holding it against a sufficiently determined IS.

Which brings us back to coalitions. There are two realities of Western coalition warfare today. The first is that, going forward, the US will (almost certainly) go to war in a coalition — the political legitimacy of multilateral operations is just too important in US politics to pass up, except in the worst of cases. The second reality is that no other Western power will fight a war without the US, because at most current defense spending levels, countries just don't have the firepower to get into and win great big fights without the US. Essentially, the US provides the brawn while the rest of the world provides the approval.

But President Barack Obama has no incentive to go into Syria, and would view as a political nonstarter anything that would result in the deployment of large US forces for major combat operations. And if the US won't go, then France won't.

So, essentially, the problem the French are running into is that, at their current levels of defense spending, they have to get permission from the US to really destroy IS. Which, per sovereignty comments above, isn't going to sit that well in France. So, Hollande will need to have something very visible and very decisive that he can order, short of invading the "caliphate" and ridding the world of its so-called government.

Watch VICE News' documentary Embedded in Northern Afghanistan: The Resurgence of the Taliban

Which is where airstrikes come in. The French Navy has already sent that nuclear-powered aircraft carrier off to the Persian Gulf to join in airstrike operations; the press has been covering those air operations with great vigor, describing a veritable onslaught of French firepower over the weekend. Truth be told, it was 10 aircraft dropping 20 bombs on various IS targets. Which isn't very much at all. For the month of October, coalition forces were averaging 86 "weapons releases" per day.

Against that backdrop, the French must (and almost certainly will) step up their participation to push back against notions that France is too weak to protect its own citizens, or to avenge them. This means France will be sending more aircraft to hit more targets, but in the end, that's only going to go so far.

Even with better intelligence and targeting, there's an upper limit to the effectiveness of bombing from the air. After the fall of Mosul and the involvement of the US-led coalition in airstrikes over the past few months, IS commanders have learned that they shouldn't present good targets to hostile and very well-equipped air forces.

This turns back to the slog-and-grind stuff, which is never an easy sell. One thing that Hollande might end up doing is something similar to Obama's recent announcement that the US would have Special Forces operating directly on the ground in Syria. Using Special Forces working with locals and supported by high-tech airpower is something that can work — as was seen in the 2001 ouster of the Taliban in Afghanistan. But ejecting someone from territory isn't the same thing as keeping them out, as we see in the ongoing fighting with the Afghani Taliban.

So, maybe the locals on the ground can be augmented by French troops to pull together the necessary force? Well, that's kind of what's been happening with the largely successful Kurdish campaigns in northern Iraq and Syria. But the Kurds have shown no interest in liberating any of the neighboring folks with whom they've had feuds, and may very well not back a campaign to wipe out IS. Besides, too much support for the wrong Kurdish factions might put the French at odds with a NATO ally they'd most certainly need: Turkey, the historical enemy of the Kurds.

Related: Kurds Don't Believe Turkey Wants To Fight The Islamic State

Now, there are a whole lot of people fighting in Syria besides the Kurds. However, if the French buddy up with anyone who isn't explicitly on the side of President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian ally, it might result in Russian airstrikes killing French soldiers, which would be a political disaster. The flip side to that scenario is France signing up with Russia and Iran if the US isn't game. But the political price of publicly turning away from the US to side with a self-described opponent of NATO and fighting alongside the Iranians would be far, far too high.

Similarly, if France were to seek out Iraqi forces to work with, that would again mean sidling up alongside the Iranians, which is a no-go. As to the other options in Iraq, there aren't a lot, since the Iraqi Sunni militias the US has been counting on have been slow to materialize and probably wouldn't be much good for a drive deep into Syria anyway.

The French could sit around trying to pull together a large multinational Arab coalition to go in, but it's hard to see how they could pull off the requisite diplomacy if they can't convince the US to commit troops.

So, what's left? Sending supplies and weapons? That would be very low-profile and unimpressive, and it carries all kinds of new risks. Some of that more advanced weaponry will almost certainly fall into the wrong hands, which means a subsequent risk of seeing something like a French surface-to-air missile being used in another terrorist attack.

What if the very large bulk of the French response will be in the intelligence arena? If France can nab some big bad guys or disrupt some very public plots, then it will provide an occasional measure of public victory.

If Hollande pursues a very aggressive intelligence effort (which he very likely will), along with increased Special Forces on the ground in Syria, and some photogenic airstrikes, he'll probably cover his bases about as well as can reasonably be expected.

There's an outside chance that he might go for something to really extend the visibility of those measures. For instance, adding long-distance cruise-missile strikes to the mix, or maybe a large airborne raid on Raqqa or an IS site. However, the reality is that, while some sort of very visible show of force could hurt IS and hurt it bad, Paris just doesn't command enough boots on the ground to stomp out IS for good.
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Russian civilian aircraft goes off radar, reportedly crashes over Egypt (10/31/15)
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...portedly-crashes-over-Egypt-(10-31-15)/page10

Goodbye Raqqa – ISIS has Invited Massive Russian Retribution with the Airline Bombing
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...an-Retribution-with-the-Airline-Bombing/page4



For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.france24.com/en/20151117-russia-bomb-plane-crash-egypt-syria-retribution

Russia confirms bomb downed its plane over Egypt, vows retribution

Latest update : 2015-11-17

The Kremlin said for the first time on Tuesday that a bomb had ripped apart a Russian passenger jet over Egypt last month, and promised to hunt down those responsible and intensify its air strikes on Islamist militants in Syria in response.

Until Tuesday, Russia had played down assertions from Western countries that the crash, which killed 224 people on Oct. 31, was a terrorist incident, saying it was important to let the official investigation run its course.

But in a late night Kremlin meeting on Monday, three days after Islamist gunmen and bombers killed 129 people in Paris, Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s FSB security service, told a meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin that traces of foreign-made explosives had been found on fragments of the downed plane and on passengers’ personal belongings.

“According to an analysis by our specialists, a home-made bomb containing up to one kilogram of TNT detonated during the flight, causing the plane to break up in mid-air, which explains why parts of the fuselage were spread over such a large distance,” said Bortnikov.

“We can unequivocally say it was a terrorist act,” Bortnikov said in footage that was not released until Tuesday morning.

Putin responded by saying the incident was one of the bloodiest acts in modern Russian history and ordered the Russian air force to intensify its air strikes in Syria in response.

“It (our campaign) must be intensified in such a way that the criminals understand that retribution is inevitable,” said Putin.

Ordering the country’s secret service to hunt down those responsible for blowing up the plane, he said the effort to bring them to justice should be exhaustive.

“We will search for them everywhere, wherever they are hiding. We will find them anywhere on the planet and punish them,” Putin said.

Egyptian authorities detained two employees of Sharm El Sheikh airport in connection with the plane’s downing, two security officials said on Tuesday.

“Seventeen people are being held, two of them are suspected of helping whoever planted the bomb on the plane at Sharm El Sheikh airport,” one of the officials said.

Unlike Britain and the United States, Egypt has not yet confirmed a bomb downed the jet.

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)

Date created : 2015-11-17
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/17/us-egypt-crash-russia-blast-idUSKCN0T60PS20151117

World | Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:09am EST
Related: World, Russia, United Nations, Egypt

Putin vows payback after Kremlin confirms bomb downed Russian plane over Egypt

MOSCOW | By Andrew Osborn


Vladimir Putin said Russia would intensify its air strikes on Islamist militants in Syria and launch a global manhunt after the Kremlin concluded that terrorists had placed a bomb on a Russian passenger jet which broke up over Egypt last month.

"We will find them anywhere on the planet and punish them," President Putin said of the plane bombers, in a somber Kremlin meeting which was broadcast on Tuesday.

Until now, Russia had played down assertions from Western countries that the crash, in which 224 people were killed on Oct. 31, was the work of terrorists, saying it was important to let the official investigation run its course.

But four days after Islamist gunmen and bombers killed at least 129 people in Paris, the Kremlin released footage showing Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia's FSB security service, telling a late night meeting on Monday that traces of foreign-made explosive had been found on fragments of the downed plane and on passengers' personal belongings.

"According to an analysis by our specialists, a homemade bomb containing up to 1 kilogram of TNT detonated during the flight, causing the plane to break up in mid air, which explains why parts of the fuselage were spread over such a large distance," said Bortnikov.

"We can unequivocally say it was a terrorist act," he said.

The Airbus A321, operated by Metrojet, had been returning Russian holiday makers from Sharm al-Sheikh in Egypt to St Petersburg when it broke up over the Sinai Peninsula, killing all on board. A group affiliated with Islamic State claimed responsibility, but until Tuesday Russia had said terrorism was just one possible scenario.


Related Coverage
› Russia offers $50 million reward for help detaining Egypt plane bombers: TASS


RETRIBUTION

Putin, wearing a dark suit, presided over a minute of silence in memory of the victims at the Kremlin meeting, before telling security and military chiefs the incident was one of the bloodiest crimes in modern Russian history and ordering the air force to intensify its air strikes in Syria in response.

"Our air force's military work in Syria must not simply be continued," he said. "It must be intensified in such a way that the criminals understand that retribution is inevitable."

Putin said he expected military chiefs to present him with specific proposals on how Russia could ramp up its campaign. His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters Putin was expected to visit the defense ministry later on Tuesday.

A senior French government source said Russia had already launched air strikes against the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa in northern Syria on Tuesday, a sign, the source said, that Russia was becoming more concerned about the threat posed by IS.

Russia began air strikes in Syria at the end of September. It has always said its main target is Islamic State, but most of its bombs in the past hit territory held by other groups opposed to its ally, President Bashar al-Assad.

Putin, in language reminiscent of how he talked about Chechen militants during a war when he came to power 15 years ago, ordered the secret services to hunt down those responsible.

"We must do this without any statute of limitations and we must find out all their names," he said, invoking Russia's right to self defense under the United Nations charter.

"Anyone who tries to help the criminals should know that the consequences for trying to shelter them will lie completely on their shoulders."

The FSB security service later told Russian news agencies there was a $50 million reward for help detaining the bombers.


(Additional reporting by Maria Kiselyova, Vladimir Soldatkin and Daria Korsunksya in Moscow; Editing by Christian Lowe and Peter Graff)
 

almost ready

Inactive
heading to World War with the speed of lightning

This morning's twitters led to these links:

Duma calls for foreign parliaments to launch worldwide anti-terror coalition


Members of Russia’s lower house of parliament have approved a declaration expressing solidarity with all nations that have suffered from terrorist attacks and calling on parliaments worldwide to participate in a major coalition to fight terrorism and put an end to attacks on civilians.

“Deputies of the State Duma urge the lawmakers from Europe, North America, Middle East and Central Asia and other regions of the world to do all in their power to create an international anti-terror coalition. The necessity to protect human lives and the moral duty to terror victims make this an obligation for us all,” the resolution, prepared by the State Duma Committee for International Relations, reads.

“Only joint efforts of the whole international community would be able to stop the terrorism that is expanding now right before our eyes,” it says.

https://www.rt.com/politics/322434-duma-calls-for-foreign-parliaments/

All for one: 28 EU states agree on first-ever military support to France


France has invoked an EU treaty collective defense article requesting military help from its European partners in response to the terror attacks in Paris. EU officials say the mutual defense article is being used for the first time.

The assistance would come from 28 European partners under Article 42.7 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, which outlines mutual defense among the EU members. Called the ‘mutual defense clause’, the Article reads that if any EU country “is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.”


French President Francois Hollande delivers a speech at a special congress of the joint upper and lower houses of parliament (National Assembly and Senate) at the Palace of Versailles, near Paris, France, November 16, 2015. © Philippe Wojazer ‘France is at war’: Hollande urges more security spending & stripping of citizenship after attacks

Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on Tuesday, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said all 28 EU member states unanimously accepted France's formal call for “aid and assistance” under the EU treaty and he expected all to help quickly in various regions, Reuters reports.

“This is firstly a political act,” Le Drian said of the decision to invoke article on mutual defense of the EU treaty.

The minister said France at this time does not have sufficient capabilities to wage several different military operations simultaneously, and expects full military support from its European partners.

“Beyond that, how is this going to work? It may be by cooperating with French interventions in Syria, in Iraq, it may be in support of France in other operations,” Le Drian said, quoted as saying by RTL.

The EU treaty mentions certain security issues, but Paris preferred to resort to mutual defense article instead of using Article 222, the so-called ‘solidarity clause’. It specifically tackles the issue of response to European countries in case of a terrorist attack and requires EU members to “mobilize all the instruments at its disposal, including military resources.”

The EU’s chief of diplomacy Federica Mogherini confirmed France will receive military assistance, but on bilateral tracks. The assistance is not to come from the EU as a whole within the so-called Common Security and Defense Policy, which is a European collective security system, according to RIA Novosti.

“We will continue to work together on bilateral basis during next days,” she said.

Paris did not choose to employ Article 5 of NATO’s Washington treaty, which says an attack on one is attack on all, although the EU’s mutual defense clause provides no common military infrastructure within the European Union itself.

France has launched a massive air campaign against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) targets in Raqqa, Syria, following Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris. On Sunday, 12 French aircraft, including 10 fighter jets, took part in the country’s biggest air raid over Syria. The strike, coordinated with the United States, was carried out simultaneously from Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/isis-the-logic-anarchy-14367

ISIS and the Logic of Anarchy [1]

ISIS' success, and the key to defeating it, lies in "out-administering" whoever came before.

Robert D. Kaplan [2] [3]
November 17, 2015
Comments 19

The terrorist attacks in Paris [4], beyond their obvious horror, recalled to me the words of the late Bernard Fall, a French-American historian and war correspondent in Vietnam. In 1965, Fall wrote: “When a country is being subverted it is not being outfought; it is being out-administered. Subversion is literally administration with a minus sign in front.” ISIS has subverted western Iraq and eastern Syria because it is out-administering the Baghdad and Damascus regimes there. That is, ISIS has erected a competent bureaucratic authority covering everything from schools to waste removal which, combined as it is with repression, is secure and stable. And with that territorial security, ISIS has apparently created a central dispatch point for planning terrorist attacks abroad. Eventually, the end of ISIS can only come about when some other force out-administers it.

ISIS is the upshot of anarchy, in other words: a situation which obtains when a populated territory is without administration, so that warrior bands prevent anyone from feeling secure. The toppling of a secular Baathist regime in Iraq in 2003 and a revolt against another secular Baathist regime in Syria in 2011 reduced those countries to dust and chaos. Baathist totalitarianism, followed by such chaos, meant that only a movement equally extreme in its own right could take root and flourish in the vacuum. Thus, whatever strategy we follow against ISIS must have as its endgame a plan to out-administer it, or else anarchy will simply return and ISIS along with it.

Should we put boots on the ground?

Of course, this would create an alternative administration to ISIS. But that means nation-building and there is no public appetite in the United States, France, or elsewhere in the West for that. I would distrust the public mood at the current moment, since rage deceives itself regarding its long-term willingness to sacrifice. A realistic war plan must be cognizant of what the public mood will be after many more news cycles; it will be very different from this one. The Bush administration's critical mistake was to plan an anti-terror strategy—from interrogating enemy combatants to invading countries—based essentially on the public mood in the first days and weeks after 9/11.

Should there be an international coalition?

Surely that will exist, as it did for the invasion of Afghanistan, but not like for the invasion of Iraq. And that will help. An international coalition does buy you time: if many consequential countries are involved, the home front in each of them will tend to be more patient and understanding when setbacks inevitably occur. Still, the idea that an army of largely Christian soldiers from America and Europe is going to permanently pacify toughened outlaw cities, brimming with Islamic religiosity, is inherently problematic.

Should we cooperate with the Assad regime and Iran?

Assad's tyranny is why the Syrian civil war is going on in the first place. As for Iran, its occupation, direct or indirect, over eastern Syria and western Iraq would create a more powerful regional hegemon, hostile to the West. Augmenting Iranian power would be a high price to pay for subduing ISIS. On the other hand, Iranian-backed Shia groups are not presently committing terrorist acts in the West, even as Assad represents, with Russian help, the most powerful and secular force in Syria at the moment. Given that foreign policy is a hierarchy of needs, perhaps utilizing Assad and the mullahs (and the Russians, too) against ISIS is demonstrably in the West's interests. The point is to out-administer ISIS in eastern Syria and western Iraq through some kind of occupation force that will not use its newly established sovereignty to plan terror attacks on the West.

Why can't the Iraqi government administer these places?

If the Iraqi government had the capacity for adequate administration, it would not have lost places like Fallujah and Ramadi in the first place. Remember, ISIS emerged in all its horror when it out-administered the Baghdad regime in Mosul.

What about the Kurds?

They are a partial solution. But owing to the mountainous geography of the ethnic Kurdish homeland, Kurdistan does not sufficiently overlap with the sprawling ISIS terrain in the desert.

What about utilizing certain elements of all of the above? That is, what could likely emerge is an international coalition with very modest numbers of boots on the ground; continued military support for the Kurds; and back-channel political deal with Damascus, Baghdad, Tehran and Moscow. The point is, all of this will be hard, truly hard.

There is also the Rumsfeld-Cheney approach—what the two men actually wanted to do in Iraq, as opposed to what they ended up doing: topple Saddam and leave quickly, period. The corollary to that might now be: bomb, bomb, bomb ISIS territory, with a dramatic upsurge of drone strikes and intelligence operations to make a place such as Raqqa unlivable even for ISIS itself. But you shouldn't occupy any territory in this game plan. That way, you don't have to out-administer anyone. I just don't see how such a strategy ends, though, since somebody will eventually have to fill the void. Thus, like their Iraq plan, it offers no solution.

Ultimately, a new order must emerge in the Levant from the anarchy unleashed by the collapse of Baathist regimes, in which all intermediary layers of civil society, between the dictator on top and the tribe and extended family at the bottom, were eviscerated. The West has decreed that such a new order cannot constitute the warriors of ISIS. So who and what will out-administer it?

Robert D. Kaplan [5] is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and the author of 16 books on foreign affairs, including "In Europe's Shadow," to be published in February.

Image: Flickr/DVIDSHUB [6]

Tags
Terrorism [7]Islamic State [8]iraq [9]
Topics
Global Governance [10]
Regions
Middle East [11]
[3]
Source URL (retrieved on November 17, 2015): http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/isis-the-logic-anarchy-14367


Links:
[1] http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/isis-the-logic-anarchy-14367
[2] http://www.nationalinterest.org/profile/robert-d-kaplan
[3] http://twitter.com/share
[4] http://www.cnn.com/specials/world/shooting-at-charlie-hebdo
[5] http://www.robertdkaplan.com/
[6] https://www.flickr.com/photos/dvids/6478512085/sizes/l
[7] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/terrorism
[8] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/islamic-state
[9] http://www.nationalinterest.org/tag/iraq
[10] http://www.nationalinterest.org/topic/global-governance
[11] http://www.nationalinterest.org/region/middle-east
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34849063

Europe

Russia steps up attacks against IS with missile bombardment

2 hours ago

Russia has stepped up its attacks on Islamic State targets in Syria, dispatching long-range bombers and firing a volley of cruise missiles.

The strikes follow a statement by Russia's security chief that a bomb brought down a Russian airliner over Egypt last month, killing 224.

Sinai Province, an IS-linked Egyptian jihadist group, said it downed the jet.

Russian officials say the country's air force has flown 2,300 missions over Syria in the past 48 days.

In response to Friday's terror attacks in Paris, which killed 129 people and wounded a further 352, Russian warships have been ordered to work "as allies" with their French counterparts in the Mediterranean.

Speaking at a security meeting held on Monday night, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country's air campaign in Syria would intensify.

"The combat work of our aviation in Syria should not only be continued, but it should be intensified to make the criminals understand that vengeance is imminent," he said.


Story: 'Act of terror' downed Russian plane

Paris attacks: live updates

Russian plane crash: What we know


Sinai Province said in a statement that the attack on the Metrojet airliner was a "response to Russian air strikes that killed hundreds of Muslims on Syrian land".

On Tuesday, FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov said that "traces of foreign explosives" were found on the wreckage of the plane. Mr Putin vowed to "find and punish" those behind the attack.

As well as targeting IS, Russian warplanes are supporting Syrian government forces against various rebel groups - a source of tension between Mr Putin and his US and UK counterparts.

France has also vowed to intensify air strikes against IS after Friday's attacks in Paris were linked to the group. At least 129 people were killed in several coordinated attacks in the city and a further 352 injured.

Both Russian and US officials have said they will coordinate closely with France to target IS in the wake of the attacks in Paris.


Recent attacks linked to Islamic State

13 Nov - Paris, France Gunmen and suicide bombers kill at least 129 people.

12 Nov - Beirut, Lebanon Suicide bombers kill at least 43 people.

31 Oct - Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt Plane crashes killing all 224 on board. Russia says a bomb caused the crash and an IS affiliate says it was responsible.

10 Oct - Ankara, Turkey Suicide bombers kill 102 people at peace rally. Turkey blames IS, but no group claims the attack.

18 Jul - Khan Bani Saad, Iraq Car bomb kills 120 people.

26 Jun - Sousse, Tunisia Gunman kills 38 people, mostly British tourists.

26 Jun - Kuwait City, Kuwait Suicide attack kills at least 27 people.

22 May - Qatif, Saudi Arabia Two suicide bombs kill at least 21 people.

21 Mar - Sanaa, Yemen Suicide bombings kill at least 137 people.

18 Mar - Tunis, Tunisia Gunmen kill 19 people, mostly foreign tourists.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-told-u-syria-strikes-cruise-missiles-u-120131497.html

U.S. says Russia gave advance notice of strikes on Syria's Raqqa

Reuters
By Phil Stewart
1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Russia gave the United States advanced notice before launching a "significant number" of strikes in Syria on Tuesday targeting the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa but a U.S. official said the former Cold War foes were still not coordinating militarily.

France has appealed to Washington and Moscow to join in a grand coalition to fight the Islamist group that controls swathes of Syria and Iraq and has claimed responsibility for Friday's attacks in Paris.

But Washington, which fiercely opposes Russia's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has been at pains to stress that any communication with Moscow was aimed at ensuring pilot safety. The two countries struck an agreement on air safety protocols in October.

"The Russians did provide us notice prior to conducting these strikes, via the Coalition Combined Air Operations Center in Qatar," the defense official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

French warplanes, operating within a U.S.-led coalition, also hit targets in Raqqa on Tuesday, targeting a command center and a recruitment center for jihadists. French defense officials said the United States had stepped up intelligence sharing, enabling Paris to identify more specific targets.

.. View gallery
Frame grab from footage released by Russia's Defence …
A frame grab taken from a footage released by Russia's Defence Ministry November 5, 2015, shows …

The U.S. defense official ruled out the possibility that the United States and Moscow were coordinating targets.

"We do not coordinate or collaborate in any way with Russia on its activities in Syria," the official said.

The U.S. official said that Russia had advised the United States ahead of Tuesday's strikes its intention to use both sea-based cruise missiles and long-range bombers.

The Russian strikes on Raqqa came as Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to hunt down those responsible for what the Kremlin said was a bomb that brought down a Russian airliner over Egypt and to intensify air strikes against Islamists in Syria.

Russia, which began its strikes in Syria at the end of September, has always said its main target is Islamic State. But most of its bombs in the past hit territory held by other groups opposed to Assad, including Western-backed rebels.

(Reporting by Phil Stewart Editing by W Simon)

View Comments (476) .
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
So much stuff going on and so little time.....

:dot5::dot5::dot5:

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.thelocal.de/20151118/german-army-could-join-un-syria-mission

German army 'could join UN Syria mission'

Published: 18 Nov 2015 13:50 GMT+01:00

Germany might send ground troops into Syria on condition that there is a UN resolution covering any mililtary intervention, Der Spiegel reported on Friday citing government sources.

•Schäuble moots ordering soldiers onto streets (18 Nov 15)
•'We'll do all we can to help France': Germany (17 Nov 15)
•Germany 'in terrorists' sights', warn experts (16 Nov 15)

Ministers "are not ruling out deploying troops" to Syria, the weekly news magazine reported.

That would be a big step up from Germany's current role in the battle against Isis of arming and training Kurdish Peshmerga troops in northern Iraq.

Officials close to Chancellor Angela Merkel believe it's increasingly likely that German troops might be called on to supervise a negotiated ceasefire.

They expect that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be keen to withdraw his own forces from Syria, based on his moves to co-operate more closely on the crisis with the USA in recent weeks.

With Russia onside, the other powers on the UN Security Council will have a clearer way to passing a resolution for joint action in Syria.

Previous attempts to organize UN intervention have foundered on Russian resistance, as Putin has continued to back Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.

Russian airstrikes in recent weeks are believed to have largely been directed at moderate opposition forces fighting Assad, rather than at Isis.

But Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Monday that he believed there was hope for peace negotiations going on in Vienna, which involve the EU, Russia, and the US as well as regional powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

There would be no purely military solution to the threat of Isis, Steinmeier warned at the time.

More soldiers to sent to Afghanistan

The cabinet decided on Wednesday to moderately restrengthen the Bundeswehr's (German army) presence in the north-east of Afghanistan.

The upper limit of soldiers involved in the mission will be raised from 850 to 980, but the central principal of the mission – to train and advise local forces – will remain unchanged.

There are no plans to return to conducting combat missions.

But the government wants to change the text of the mission statement to allow the Bundeswehr more room to advise their Afghan counterparts.

The cabinet also agreed upon extending Germany's involvement in “Active Endeavour” the EU's anti-people smuggling mission in the Mediterranean.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.politico.eu/article/the-french-way-of-war/

The French way of war

Bet on it: Hollande’s counterattack against the terrorists is going to hurt them.

By Michael Shurkin | 11/18/15, 5:57 AM CET

France’s military may suffer from a poor reputation in American popular imagination, dating from historical events like the rapid fall to Nazi Germany in World War II and the colonial-era defeat at Dien Bien Phu. This is a mistake: The French airstrikes on Islamic State positions in Syria are only the beginning of the counterattack against ISIL, as French officials themselves are promising. And as anyone familiar with France’s military capabilities can attest, when it comes to war the French are among the very best.

Moreover, whatever France does probably will not look like anything the U.S. would do. There is a French way of warfare that reflects the French military’s lack of resources and its modest sense of what it can achieve. They specialize in carefully apportioned and usually small but lethal operations, often behind the scenes; they can go bigger if they have help from the U.S. and other allies—which they will probably have in any case and know how to put to good use.

Emblematic of the French approach was France’s military intervention in the Central African Republic in March 2007. To stop a rapidly moving rebel advance into the country from the Sudanese border, the French attacked using a single fighter plane and two waves of paratroopers totaling no more than a “few dozen” who dropped into the combat zone in the Central African town of Birao. In military terms, what the French did was a pinprick, yet it was sufficient to break the rebel advance like placing a rock in the path of a wave. It was, moreover, a risky thing to do: Airborne assaults are intrinsically dangerous, all the more so when one has little capacity to reinforce or withdraw the lightly armed soldiers in an emergency. The first wave of “less than 10” soldiers reportedly made a high-altitude drop. The French military, moreover, did all this quietly, with the French press only learning of the intervention a few weeks after the fact.

France’s intervention in Mali in January 2013 also illustrated these attributes amply. For one thing, the French showcased high-end combined arms and “joint” fire and maneuver capabilities, meaning they deftly made use of everything they had at hand—special forces and conventional forces, tanks and infantry, artillery, helicopters, and jet fighters—in an orchestrated and integrated fashion that made the most of every resource available.

To put it another way, the French in Mali played major league baseball (though perhaps we should no longer consider ISIS a “JV” team, as President Obama once did). They did so, moreover, with a scratch ‘pick-up team’ consisting of bits and pieces of a diverse array of units cobbled together in great haste and on the fly. Some of these could be considered elite, but most were not. In addition, the French put this ad hoc force up against a dangerous enemy that was operating in the worst imaginable physical environment–all with barely enough supplies simply to keep French troops from dying of thirst and heat exhaustion. French soldiers’ boots literally fell apart because the glue holding them together melted from the heat. The French went places their enemies assumed they would never dare go, fighting hand-to-hand among caves and boulders deep in the desert. For example; they chanced a nighttime parachute drop into Timbuktu to take on a force that might have outnumbered them. For American military observers, the one word that sums up their assessment is respect.

What makes the French way of war distinct from, say, the U.S. way of war has to do with scarcity. The French military is highly conscious of its small size and lack of resources. This translates into several distinctive features of French military operations. One is an insistence on modest objectives, on limiting strictly the aims of a military invention in line with a modest assessment of what the military can accomplish. The French thus aim low and strive to achieve the minimal required. Whenever possible, they try to limit the use of the military to missions for which militaries really can be of use. Meaning, militaries are good at violence; if violence is what is required, then send in the military. Otherwise, not. The French military abhors mission creep and want no part in things such as ‘nation building.’ In Mali, for example, the French military sees itself as good at killing members of a few terrorist groups; that is what they do, and they refuse to get involved in anything else, such as sorting out Mali’s political mess or involving themselves in the conflict among Mali’s various armed rebel groups and between them and the Malian state. Of course, that means the French military is not doing a lot of what Mali needs, but the French are sticking to their policy.

Another feature of the French way of war is scale. Whereas the U.S. military tends toward a “go big or go home” approach to war—American planners arguably take for granted their ability to marshal vast resources and firepower—the French military embraces ”going” small. They strive for sufficiency and hope to achieve limited goals through the application of the smallest possible measure of force, what they refer to as “juste mésure,” i.e. just enough to get the job done, and no more. This requires knowing how much is enough, not to mention accepting risk that Americans would prefer not to run and largely do not have to. The French accepted going to Mali with insufficient medical evacuation resources, for example. The U.S. military probably would not make that call.

Keys to the French approach include substituting quality for quantity, and fighting smart, of making the most of the tools at hand. One does not drop a few dozen paratroopers into Birao, where they are likely to be outnumbered and possibly outgunned, unless one knows precisely what needs to be done, where, how, and for what purpose. In Mali, the French forces deployed without sufficient water, but they knew exactly where to get it once there. They knew, moreover, who the local actors were, whom to trust and to what extent, and how to leverage local forces to make up for their own small numbers.

The French military’s self-awareness with respect to its limitations help it to work well with the United States. Informed by their experience working with American resources in Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, Somalia, and currently in the Sahel, the French know how to work with Americans. They also know precisely what they need most from the U.S. and what to do with it, namely aerial refueling, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and heavy lift (large cargo planes such as the Air Force’s C-17s). When the U.S. provides any of these things, or indeed when the U.S. provides any additional capability that the French themselves do not have, the French take it and are off and running. The cooperation is therefore not just close but effective, although usually behind the scenes.

The French might not be able to defeat ISIS—certainly not alone. They might not, moreover, have any better ideas than we or anyone else for how to win. But, based on their history, whatever they do in addition to the recent airstrikes, they are likely to act in a measured way and think first. They might act quietly, so quietly we might never hear of it. But one thing is certain: If the French are determined to hurt someone, they will.

Michael Shurkin is a senior political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...255c26-8c8e-11e5-934c-a369c80822c2_story.html

Is it too late to solve the mess in the Middle East?

By Liz Sly November 17 at 7:07 PM  Follow @LizSly
Comments 445

BAGHDAD — With the attacks in Paris and the downing of a Russian passenger plane, the Islamic State has declared war on the wider world, galvanizing new calls for an intensified global effort to defeat the emerging threat.

It may already be too late and too difficult, however, for any swift or easy solution to the tangled mess the Middle East has become in the four years since the Arab Spring plunged the region into turmoil.

What Jordan’s King Abdullah II referred to as a “third world war against humanity” has, more accurately, become a jumble of overlapping wars driven by conflicting agendas in which defeating the Islamic State is just one of a number of competing and often contradictory policy pursuits.

In those four years, four Arab states — Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen — have effectively collapsed. Civil wars are raging in all of them. World powers have lined up on different sides of those wars. And the chaos has given the heirs to the legacy of Osama bin Laden the greatest gift they could have hoped for: the gift of time and space.

Aided by the disinterest of a world wearied and wary after the failings of the Iraq war, an assortment of al-Qaeda veterans, hardened Iraqi insurgents, Arab jihadist ideologues and Western volunteers have moved into the vacuum left by the collapse of governments in Syria and Iraq and built themselves a proto-state. It can hardly be said to count as a real state, but it controls territory, raises taxes and maintains an army.

[The hidden hand behind the Islamic State militants? Saddam Hussein’s.]

Any responses now “are very late in the game,” said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution in Washington. “The costs of inaction have accumulated, and we can’t undo the damage of the past four years.”

The Islamic State is finding new footholds in Egypt, Libya and Afghanistan as state control crumbles there, too, confronting the world with a vastly bigger challenge than it faced after the 9/11 attacks in the United States, said Bruce Riedel, who is also with the Brookings Institution.

“We have now been fighting al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda offshoots, which is what the Islamic State is, since 1998,” he said. “We now face an enemy that has more sanctuaries and operating space than ever before. The battlefield is now much larger than it was before.”

It is also more complicated. At no point has any world power made defeating the Islamic State a top priority, including the United States, said Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group. “Everyone’s using the Islamic State,” he said. It’s a diversion “from what’s really going on.”

For the Obama administration, avoiding entanglement in another Middle East war has been the foremost policy priority, followed closely by the pursuit of a nuclear deal with Iran. There seems to be little doubt that the United States has soft-pedaled its Syria policy, ostensibly aimed at removing President Bashar al-
Assad, in order not to jeopardize the Iran deal, Hamid said.

Russian intervention in the region has been driven primarily by President Vladimir Putin’s desire to reassert Russia’s stature as a global power and shore up Assad’s regime, hence the focus on targeting U.S.-backed moderate rebels rather than the Islamic State in the earliest days of its intervention.

Saudi Arabia, America’s most powerful Arab ally, is preoccupied above all by the challenge posed by Iran and is expending its military energies on fighting the Iranian-backed Houthi militias in Yemen.

Iran has prioritized the projection of its regional influence through Syria and Iraq to the Mediterranean, funding and arming proxy militias to defend its interests in Shiite-dominated areas of Iraq and to quell the anti-Assad rebellion mostly in the areas around Damascus, the Syrian capital.

And Turkey’s attention is focused mainly on its domestic Kurdish problem and on the perceived threat posed by the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish enclave along its border in northern Syria.

It seems unlikely that the Paris attacks will generate a more coherent international response, analysts say.

France has joined the United States and Russia in conducting airstrikes in Syria, raining bombs on the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed capital of Raqqa on two occasions since the bloodshed in Paris on Friday. On Tuesday, President François Hollande dispatched an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean, where Russian warships are already deployed for a fight that has focused mostly on Syrian rebels fighting Assad — some of whom also have been supported by France.

[Plans by U.S. to capture Islamic State’s capital already go awry]

Syrian activists with the group Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently, which maintains a network of undercover reporters in Raqqa, say that the initial French strikes, at least, hit only empty buildings vacated by the militants in anticipation of retaliation.

Experience has already demonstrated that the Islamic State is unlikely to be defeated with airstrikes alone, and for now, there are few other alternatives on the horizon, Riedel said.

“The Islamic State can be degraded by air power, but in the end someone has to provide the infantry that goes in and takes Mosul and Raqqa and restores governance and rule of law, and I don’t see anyone offering that.”

In America, the Paris attacks have precipitated peripheral debates about whether the United States is waging war on Islam and the question of whether to admit Syrian refugees, rather than ways to address the wider problems of the Middle East.

Although there have been calls for more robust intervention, including boots on the ground, from some members of Congress, President Obama has made it clear that he thinks the current U.S. strategy is working.

And in recent days, there has been a spurt of progress on the ground. An alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters recaptured the eastern Syrian town of al-Hawl and dozens of surrounding villages. In northern Iraq, Kurdish fighters ejected the Islamic State from the town of Sinjar in 48 hours. The Iraqi army has made advances around Ramadi, the capital of the province of Anbar, which is now almost encircled.

The gains reflect a newly concerted effort to coordinate efforts among the diverse local forces fighting on the ground in order to pressure the Islamic State in multiple places at the same time, said Col. Steve Warren, spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State.

“We’re fighting them across the entire depth of the battlefield at once. We are synchronizing and aligning our support,” he said. “Each one of these gains is not necessarily compelling, but when you look at them simultaneously it’s very compelling.”

The gains nonetheless leave unaddressed the core problem confronting the region, which is the collapse of viable state structures in the Middle East and the absence of any immediately apparent alternative to Islamic State rule in the mostly Sunni areas it controls, said Robert Ford, former U.S. ambassador to Syria and now a fellow with the Middle East Institute.

Kurdish fighters have made most of the advances in Syria so far, but they are unlikely to succeed in retaking core Sunni strongholds such as Raqqa and other cities in the Sunni Arab territories that form the heart of the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate.

“Kurds are never going to liberate Palmyra; Kurds are not going to clear the Islamic State out of Deir al-Zour,” he said. “Sunni Arabs are going to have to do that, and what Arab force is going to do that? Assad doesn’t have the forces; he can’t even take the suburbs of Damascus.”

Likewise in Iraq, Shiite militias and Iraqi Kurds have made most of the gains so far. The Iraqi army’s recent advances in Ramadi have isolated Fallujah, which has been under Islamic State control for nearly two years, leaving residents besieged and short of food.

[The Islamic State rampage in Iraq has torn villages apart]

Many residents “would like Daesh to be expelled,” said Issa al-Issawi, the mayor of Fallujah, who left the city when the Islamic State, also known as Daesh, overran it and is living in government-controlled territory. “But at the same time they have major concerns about what would happen next.”


Obama acknowledged the problem in justifying his reluctance to commit troops to the fight. “We can retake territory and as long as we leave troops there we can hold it, but that does not solve the underlying dynamic that is producing these extremist groups,” he told journalists in Turkey this week.

Progress is being made on standing up Arab forces to fight in both Iraq and Syria, said Warren, citing the creation of an Arab coalition in northern Syria and ongoing efforts to train Sunni fighters in Iraq. The three-to-five-year timeline for defeating the Islamic State offered by the administration when airstrikes were launched last year is still on track, he said. “Now it’s two to four years.”

That may be an optimistic assessment, analysts say. The networks and ideology generated by al-Qaeda survived more than a decade of American presence in Iraq and Afghanistan and are likely to endure for at least another decade, Riedel said.

In the meantime, more attacks of the kind launched in Paris are to be expected, a message the Obama administration seems to be trying to convey.

“We’ve always said there’s a threat of these kind of attacks around the world until we’ve made more progress,” Secretary of State John F. Kerry told CNN in an interview Tuesday.

Read more:

They freed a Syrian town from ISIS. Now they have to govern it.

As talks on Syria begin, the future of Assad will be set aside — for now

5 stories you should read to really understand the Islamic State

The politics and hypocrisy of word-policing ‘radical Islam’


Liz Sly is the Post’s Beirut bureau chief. She has spent more than 15 years covering the Middle East, including the Iraq war. Other postings include Africa, China and Afghanistan.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151118/eu-bosnia-attack-5e35a1446a.html

Police: Gunman kills 2 Bosnian soldiers; injures 3 civilians

Nov 18, 4:28 PM (ET)

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina (AP) — A gunman has killed two Bosnian soldiers and injured three civilians after he opened fire with an automatic rifle at a betting shop and then against a public bus driving by.

Police spokesman Irfan Nefic said the attack occured Wednesday evening in the Sarajevo suburb of Rajlovac and that the two soldiers were killed instantly in the betting shop. The attacker then shot at a public bus and fragments of the broken glass injured the driver and two passengers.

Nefic said an investigation is under way and that it is too early to say what motivated the attack.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151118/ml--islamic_state-syrian_stronghold-235d1fc24e.html

IS militants dig in, anticipating assault on Syria's Raqqa

Nov 18, 5:24 AM (ET)
By BASSEM MROUE and ZEINA KARAM

(AP) This undated file image posted on a militant website on Jan. 14, 2014, which...
Full Image

BEIRUT (AP) — Islamic State militants are stiffening their defenses for a possible assault on their de facto capital of Raqqa, as international airstrikes intensify on the Syrian city in retaliation for the Paris attacks. IS fighters are hiding in civilian neighborhoods and preventing anyone from fleeing, former residents say.

The northern Syrian city's estimated 350,000 people are gripped by fear, rattled by powerful Russian and French airstrikes that shake the city daily. They are also worried they would be trapped with nowhere to go amid signs of a looming ground invasion by U.S.-allied Kurdish and Arab forces in Syria, according to the former residents who have fled to Turkey and now report on events in Raqqa through acquaintances and activists inside.

For months, the anti-IS forces have been advancing gradually toward Raqqa with backing from American-led airstrikes, capturing IS-held towns to the north and east of the city. After IS claimed responsibility for Friday's carnage in Paris that killed at least 129 people, there are calls for even stronger action in Syria.

Iraqi intelligence officials this week told The Associated Press that the operation was planned in Raqqa, where the attackers were trained specifically for this operation with the intention of sending them to France. The attacks came soon after IS claimed the downing of a Russian plane in Egypt and deadly suicide bombings in Lebanon and Turkey.

(AP) This undated file photo posted on Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2014 by the Raqqa Media...
Full Image

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday suggested Raqqa would be the new focus.

"My sense is that everybody understands that with Lebanon's attacks, with what's happened in Egypt, with Ankara, Turkey, with the attacks now in Paris, we have to step up our efforts to hit them at the core where they're planning these things," he said after his meeting with French President Francois Hollande on Tuesday.

But the extremists are digging in to make any potential assault as grueling as possible. The city, which they have held since early 2014, lies on the Euphrates River at an intersection of major routes from all directions, most through agricultural areas crisscrossed by canals and tributaries of the river. The closest forces from the U.S.-backed Kurdish-Arab coalition called the Democratic Forces of Syria are 50 kilometers (30 miles) to the north in the town of Ein Issa.

The Raqqa activists say the militants have been stepping up defenses of the city since late October, after the Democratic Forces launched their campaign vowing to retake the city. Shortly afterward, IS banned people leaving the city and activists said it has stepped up enforcement of the ban in the past few days, leading to fears the group intends to use civilians as human shields in future fighting.

To avoid being hit in their bases, the fighters have moved into residential neighborhoods in empty homes abandoned by people who fled Raqqa earlier, said an activist from Raqqa. He spoke on condition he be identified only by the name he uses in his political activism, Khaled, for security reasons.

(AP) In this file photo released May 14, 2015 by a militant website, which has...
Full Image

"There is major fear in the city, especially with Daesh preventing civilians from leaving the city," Khaled said, using the Arabic acronym for the group.

Khaled, who now lives in Turkey, is in touch with people back in Raqqa. Raqqa residents could not be reached because of an IS ban on private Internet access across the city.

Among new measures that have been put in place by IS, according to several of the activists, is an order that IS fighters move only in alleys and side streets to avoid detection from the air and not use vehicles at night.

Those measures have intensified after a series of successful hits by the coalition that killed a number of IS leaders, including the Islamic State militant known as "Jihadi John" who appeared in several videos depicting the beheadings of U.S. and Western hostages.

On the roads leading into Raqqa, the extremists have dug extensive tunnels and trenches, said another activist from Raqqa, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of IS retaliation. More recently, the militants placed tires filled with fuel on empty barrels around the city, with plans to ignite them in case of an attack to cloud the skies with smoke.

(AP) This photo made from footage taken from Russian Defense Ministry official website...
Full Image

The attacks on Raqqa since the Paris attacks include:

— Nov. 14: Russian airstrikes that activists say struck central Raqqa near the Grand Mosque and the museum building that killed up to 13 civilians in addition to a number of IS militants.

— Nov. 15: France's Defense Ministry said 12 aircraft dropped a total of 20 bombs Sunday night in the biggest air strikes since France extended its bombing campaign against the extremist group to Syria in September.

— Nov. 16-17: French jets bombed a jihadi training camp and munitions dump in Raqqa.

— Nov. 17: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russian bombers hit Islamic State positions in Raqqa and Deir el-Zour, to the southeast. Russian warplanes also fired cruise missiles on militant positions in Syria's Idlib and Aleppo provinces. French warplanes also carried out new strikes in the evening.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Syrian group that closely monitors the war in Syria, said on Wednesday that airstrikes on Raqqa and its outskirts over the past three days killed at least 33 IS fighters.

Last week's capture by Kurdish forces of the Iraqi town of Sinjar near the Syrian border cut off one main route connecting Raqqa to IS holdings in Iraq, making movement of fighters and supplies more difficult. On the Syrian side, fighters of the Democratic Forces have been on offensive for the past two weeks in Hassakeh province, northeast of Raqqa. Last week they seized the Syrian town of Hol from IS, further crimping its supply lines.

Those forces are now marching south toward the town of Shaddadeh, an IS stronghold 150 kilometers (90 miles) east across the desert from Raqqa, Kurdish activist Mustafa Bali said. Once that is taken, they will head east toward Raqqa through the Abdul-Aziz Mountain, as well as from Ein Issa and Soureen to the north and northwest of Raqqa.

He said liberating Raqqa would be a major blow and "mark the beginning of the end of Daesh in Syria," and he called for greater international support for the Kurdish-Arab coalition. But a campaign on Raqqa by the under-armed forces would be costly, even with an intensified air campaign, he said.

"I believe it is going to be a major and long war."

---

Follow Zeina Karam at http://twitter.com/zkaram and Bassem Mroue on http://twitter.com/bmroue

__


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151118/ml--islamic_state-hostages-80c74f3f9f.html

IS group says it has killed Norwegian, Chinese captives

Nov 18, 3:52 PM (ET)
By JOSEPH KRAUSS and JON GAMBRELL

(AP) Norway`s Prime Minister Erna Solberg, left and Foreign Minister Borge Brende address...
Full Image

CAIRO (AP) — The Islamic State group said Wednesday that it has killed Norwegian and Chinese captives after earlier demanding ransoms for the two men.

The extremist group published two images of the men in the second-to-last page of its English-language magazine, saying they had been "executed after being abandoned by kafir nations and organizations." "Kafir" is the Arabic word for infidel. In the images, the men both appeared to have been shot to death.

The Norwegian man had been identified as Ole Johan Grimsgaard-Ofstad, 48, a graduate student in political philosophy from Porsgrunn, south of Oslo. The Chinese man had been identified as Fan Jinghui, 50, a self-described "wanderer" from Beijing who once taught middle school.

The militants did not say when or where the two were captured when announcing their captivity in a previous issue of the magazine, which showed them in yellow jumpsuits. However, the last post on Grimsgaard-Ofstad's Facebook page, dated Jan. 24, said he had arrived in Idlib, Syria, on his way to Hama.

(AP) This file combination of undated photos taken from the Islamic State group's...
Full Image

Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg told a press conference that the government cannot confirm the killing, but said "we have no reasons to doubt it."

"It is painful for the family and the whole country," she said. She called IS a "barbaric group" and said "we do not pay ransom." She added that "even if it hurts, we should never let the terrorists win."

Foreign Minister Borge Brende, who attended the same press conference, said the Norwegian citizen "was harshly mistreated," adding that photos and videos were sent to Norwegian authorities along with demands for ransom. Brende said the government was releasing the information in accordance with the family's wishes.

In a statement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said China has noted the report and is "deeply shocked."

"Ever since the Chinese citizen was held hostage by the Islamic State group, the Chinese government has been sparing no effort in rescuing him," Hong said. "We are still verifying the information."

The IS group controls large areas in Iraq and Syria. The killing of the two men stood in contrast to other filmed beheadings and atrocities carried out by the group since it seized a third of Iraq in a lightning advance in 2014.

The announced killings come as Islamic State militants face increasing airstrikes from a variety of countries, including the U.S., Russia and France, as well as ground attacks from Kurdish and other forces.

The group's online magazine, which is titled "Dabiq" after a town in Syria, contains articles, interviews, opinion pieces and other propaganda. It has a professional layout, complete with photos and graphics. The latest issue celebrates the Paris attacks on its cover with the headline "Just Terror."

---

Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press writers Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark, Matti Huuhtanen in Helsinki, Finland, David Thurber in Bangkok and Cara Anna at the United Nations contributed to this report.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
NATO, therefore, is defunct. A new coalition is forming AND Russia will be part of that coalition.

Yeah. That's definitely the way it is starting to look. Another thing you can lay upon Obama's "leading from the rear" policy.

Considering what harm NATO has caused for decades, that is a good thing. Bosnia etc, Libya for two horrorshows.

The EU, if the trending continues, is going to swap; the US lead NATO alliance with an alliance with Putin's Russia. That's what's trending as I see it with the French and Russians getting together regarding IS.

We're going to have a real long time un-FUBARing that.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151118/eu-bosnia-attack-5e35a1446a.html

Police: Gunman kills 2 Bosnian soldiers; injures 3 civilians

Nov 18, 4:28 PM (ET)

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina (AP) — A gunman has killed two Bosnian soldiers and injured three civilians after he opened fire with an automatic rifle at a betting shop and then against a public bus driving by.

Police spokesman Irfan Nefic said the attack occured Wednesday evening in the Sarajevo suburb of Rajlovac and that the two soldiers were killed instantly in the betting shop. The attacker then shot at a public bus and fragments of the broken glass injured the driver and two passengers.

Nefic said an investigation is under way and that it is too early to say what motivated the attack.


MUZZIES:


*snip*

Witnesses at the scene said the attacker appeared to be a follower of the ultra-conservative Salafi Muslim movement in Bosnia, but Nefic could not confirm the reports.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/18/us-bosnia-attacks-idUSKCN0T735520151118
 
Top