WAR 11-07-2015-to-11-13-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

I took a bit of a break today so let me get the thread started before the calendar rolls over.....

(188) 10-17-2015-to-10-23-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...23-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(189) 10-24-2015-to-10-30-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...30-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(190) 10-31-2015-to-11-06-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...06-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

_____

Merde.....

Russian civilian aircraft goes off radar, reportedly crashes over Egypt (10/31/15)
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...portedly-crashes-over-Egypt-(10-31-15)/page10

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151107/ml-egypt-sharm-security-e06f017f46.html

Sharm el-Sheikh airport officials reveal porous security

Nov 7, 6:40 PM (ET)
By NOUR YOUSSEF

(AP) Tourists with their luggage walk towards the main entrance to the Sharm el-Sheikh...
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CAIRO (AP) — The airport at Egypt's resort of Sharm el-Sheikh has long seen gaps in security, including a key baggage scanning device that often is not functioning and lax searches at an entry gate for food and fuel for the planes, security officials at the airport told The Associated Press.

Security at the airport, and others around Egypt, have become a central concern as investigators probe the Oct. 31 crash of a Russian plane 23 minutes after it left Sharm el-Sheikh, killing all 224 on board. The U.S. and Britain have said the cause was likely a bomb planted on the flight, and Russia has halted flights to Egypt until security at airports is improved.

Seven officials involved in security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport, several for more than a decade, told the AP of the gaps, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the press. Several said the malfunctioning scanner had been noted in security reports to their superiors, but the machine was not replaced.

One of the officials, involved in security for planes, also pointed to bribe-taking by poorly paid policemen monitoring X-ray machines. "I can't tell you how many times I have caught a bag full of drugs or weapons that they have let through for 10 euros or whatever," he said.

(AP) An Egyptian policeman checks a Russian tourist's passport at the main entrance to...
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Egypt's aviation minister and his spokesman did not respond to repeated calls and texts for comment. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has said British officials sent a security team to evaluate the airport 10 months ago, in cooperation with Egyptian officials, and were satisfied with the results.

A spokesman for Britain's Department of Transportation would not comment on any details of what the team found. But British Transport Secretary Patrick Mcloughlin suggested on Friday that screening of checked-in bags was insufficient, telling the BBC that it had imposed its own additional checks on its flights "because we weren't wholly satisfied with the way screening had been done."

All bags are put through a scanner as passengers enter Sharm airport, and carry-on bags go through a second machine at the gate before boarding.

But a scanner in the sorting area for checked-in bags often is not working, all the airport officials speaking to AP said.

One of the officials said the breakdowns in the 10-year-old CTX scanner were because operators didn't use it properly — "human stupidity," he said — rather than technical faults.

"I have seen people unplug it to save power," he said.

Another of the officials said the staff made sure the scanner was operating well enough whenever international experts came to review measures at the airport.

"We only care about appearances," he said. "Once they (higher-ups) hear something is coming, suddenly everything gets fixed. ... We wish we had visits every day."

Several of the officials argued that it was "not that important" that the machine broke down because when it was working, it is only used to scan a sample of the bags, not all of them.

The scanner was one of at least five granted by Britain, and another scanner is used at Cairo's airport but only to scan luggage for flights to London and Paris, according to two security officials there. In Sharm el-Sheikh, the selective use of the scanner is even more arbitrary, three officials said.

On Friday, Russia suspended all flights to Egypt, joining Britain, which had halted flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. Ireland has also suspended flights to the Red Sea resort, while at least a half-dozen Western European governments told their citizens not to travel there.

Empty charter planes have been flying to Sharm el-Sheikh to bring home stranded Russian and British tourists. But these flights banned passengers from checking in luggage, suggesting a concern about security and luggage-screening procedures.

Egyptian authorities at Sharm el-Sheikh airport have begun questioning airport staff and ground crew who worked on the Russian flight and have placed some employees under surveillance, according to airport and security officials.

The officials from Sharm el-Sheikh airport said security checks were often lax at a gate into the facility used to bring in food and fuel. Local hotels provide food to some flights and deliver the food directly to the planes, they said.

Guards at the gate often let such deliveries go in without full searches because they know the delivery men, the officials said. Guards in a diligent mood are often bribed with a meal or two to pass the trucks unsearched to save time, they added.

"You are not going to search your friend or your friend's friend," one official said. "It's rude."

A retired senior official from Egypt's Tourism Ministry, Magdy Salim, said airport guards regularly skip security checks for friends and co-workers and often don't search people "out of respect to save their time if they look chic or if they come out of a fancy car."

"Airport security procedures in Egypt are almost (all) bad" and marred by "insufficiencies," Salim said.

Earlier Saturday, the head of the joint investigation team, Ayman el-Muqadem, said a noise was heard in the last second of the cockpit voice recording before the plane plummeted. The announcement bolstered U.S. and British suspicions it was brought down by a bomb.

However, el-Muqadem warned it was too early to say what caused the plane to apparently break up in mid-flight, adding that analysis of the noise was underway.

"All scenarios are being considered ... it could be lithium batteries in the luggage of one of the passengers, it could be an explosion in the fuel tank, it could be fatigue in the body of the aircraft, it could be the explosion of something," he told reporters at Cairo press conference.

---_

Associated Press writer Sylvia Hui in London contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151106/af--kenya-tribal_tensions-99e1171a55.html

Tribal tensions resurface again in Kenya, worrying many

Nov 6, 11:49 AM (ET)
TOM ODULA

(AP) In this Monday, March 4, 2013 file photo, a Kenyan voter holds a copy of the...
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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Hundreds of young men armed with machetes cheered as a ruling party lawmaker called for attacks on opponents of a project to create part-time jobs for youths in his constituency.

Opposing such a program in a country where many are jobless might seem bizarre, along with the reason: Opponents suspected the jobs initiative was a cover for creating a militia. The hostile and threatening reaction might seem even more outrageous.

But they reflect long-simmering tribal tensions that are heating up again, eight years after they exploded into violence that left more than 1,000 people dead and more than 600,000 displaced from their homes. That frenzied outbreak of fighting came in the aftermath of a disputed presidential election.

The current threats of violence between opposition and government politicians and venomous exchanges by their supporters on social media have risen to such a level that the country's chief justice and church leaders are warning that it is reminiscent of rhetoric that was a prelude to the 2007-8 violence.

(AP) In this Monday, Jan. 28, 2008 file photo, Kenyan men from the Luo tribe armed...
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Chief Justice Willy Mutunga noted while presiding over a launch of a program that seeks to improve access to justice that "the drums of possible violence are being heard."

A little over a week ago, an opposition politician was videotaped telling a crowd of thousands in Nairobi's sprawling Kibera slum that blood must be spilled for opposition leader Raila Odinga to become president in the 2017 election.

The exchanges have mainly centered on President Uhuru Kenyatta's Kikuyu tribe and communities that supported him, and those that align with Odinga, a Luo. Animosity between the Kikuyu and Luo goes back decades, precipitated by a falling out between Kenyatta's father Jomo —the founding president of Kenya— and Odinga's father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the country's first vice president after Kenya won independence from Britain in 1963.

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was opposed to, among other things, the re-distribution of land, which was seen to favor the Kikuyu elite. That fallout has shaped the political landscape in Kenya.

"Kenyans remain divided along ethnic lines," said the Rev. Peter Karanja, secretary general for the National Council of Churches in Kenya, an association of Protestant churches. "They identify with their tribes before their nation. Social media has been awash with hate messages that tell of a society that is on the edge."

Catholic Bishop Cornelius Korir, during a briefing on the upcoming visit of Pope Francis, urged Kenyans on Sunday to seek tolerance and peace.

"Our nation is facing (a) great trial that threatens to tear it apart," he said.

Opposition politician George Aladwa faces was charged on Friday with incitement to violence in relation to his public comments about bloodshed. He claims he was quoted out context.

Moses Kuria was the legislator from Gatundu South— the president's home area— who spoke to the youth with machetes in July. He also claims he was quoted out of context, but when the host of a TV program played a video of him urging attacks, he walked out of the studio. He has been charged in court with hate speech and incitement to violence.

But there appears to be virtual impunity for such offenses, said Francis Ole Kaparo, chairman of the National Integration and Cohesion Commission, which was formed to try to avoid a repeat of the 2007-08 post-election violence. He complained that those who spew hatred are never sent to prison.

In a telephone interview with The Associated Press, he said the local media, the police, the judiciary and people who cheer on the hatemongers all share blame for the situation.

"All of us must realize we have a big problem and deal with it," he said.

Kenyatta, who will run in 2017 for a second term, has condemned incitement and hate speech.

"As leaders, let us talk about things that will unite people," Kenyatta said in July.

Kenyatta, along with his deputy William Ruto, were charged by the International Criminal Court with crimes against humanity for allegedly orchestrating the post-election violence in 2007-08 while on opposing sides. Charges against Kenyatta were dropped in December after the ICC prosecutor said there was a lack of evidence, which she blamed on witness intimidation and bribery.

ICC cases against Ruto and radio journalist Joshua Sang continue.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummmm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/08/opinion/sunday/the-pakistan-nuclear-nightmare.html?_r=0

Sunday Review | Editorial

The Pakistan Nuclear Nightmare

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
NOV. 7, 2015
Comments 2

With as many as 120 warheads, Pakistan could in a decade become the world’s third-ranked nuclear power, behind the United States and Russia, but ahead of China, France and Britain. Its arsenal is growing faster than any other country’s, and it has become even more lethal in recent years with the addition of small tactical nuclear weapons that can hit India and longer-range nuclear missiles that can reach farther.

These are unsettling truths. The fact that Pakistan is also home to a slew of extremist groups, some of which are backed by a paranoid security establishment obsessed with India, only adds to the dangers it presents for South Asia and, indeed, the entire world.

Persuading Pakistan to rein in its nuclear weapons program should be an international priority. The major world powers spent two years negotiating an agreement to restrain the nuclear ambitions of Iran, which doesn’t have a single nuclear weapon. Yet there has been no comparable investment of effort in Pakistan, which, along with India, has so far refused to consider any limits at all.

The Obama administration has begun to address this complicated issue with greater urgency and imagination, even though the odds of success seem small. The recent meeting at the White House on Oct. 22 between President Obama and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan appears to have gone nowhere. Yet it would be wrong not to keep trying, especially at a time of heightened tensions between Pakistan and India over Kashmir and terrorism.

What’s new about the administration’s approach is that instead of treating the situation as essentially hopeless, it is now casting about for the elements of a possible deal in which each side would get something it wants. For the West, that means restraint by Pakistan and greater compliance with international rules for halting the spread of nuclear technology. For Pakistan, that means some acceptance in the family of nuclear powers and access to technology.

At the moment, Pakistan is a pariah in the nuclear sphere to all but China; it has been punished internationally ever since it followed India’s example and tested a weapon in 1998. Pakistan has done itself no favors by refusing to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and by giving nuclear know-how to bad actors like North Korea. Yet, it is seeking treatment equal to that given to India by the West.

For decades, India was also penalized for developing nuclear weapons. But attitudes shifted in 2008 when the United States, seeking better relations with one of the world’s fastest-growing economies as a counterweight to China, gave India a pass and signed a generous nuclear cooperation deal that allowed New Delhi to buy American nuclear energy technology.

American officials say they are not offering Pakistan an India-like deal, which would face stiff opposition in Congress, but are discussing what Pakistan needs to do to justify American support for its membership in the 48-nation Nuclear Supplier Group, which governs trade in nuclear fuel and technology.

As a first step, one American official said, Pakistan would have to stop pursuing tactical nuclear weapons, which are more likely to be used in a conflict with India and could more easily fall into the hands of terrorists, and halt development of long-range missiles. Pakistan should also sign the treaty banning nuclear weapons tests.

Such moves would undoubtedly be in Pakistan’s long-term interest. It cannot provide adequate services for its citizens because it spends about 25 percent of its budget on defense. Pakistan’s army, whose chief of staff is due to visit Washington this month, says it needs still more nuclear weapons to counter India’s conventional arsenal.

The competition with India, which is adding to its own nuclear arsenal, is a losing game, and countries like China, a Pakistan ally, should be pushing Pakistan to accept that. Meanwhile, Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, has done nothing to engage Islamabad on security issues, and he also bears responsibility for current tensions. The nuclear arms race in South Asia, which is growing more intense, demands far greater international attention.


Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter, and sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.stripes.com/news/us/carter-u-s-must-prepare-for-challenges-from-russia-china-1.377771

Carter: U.S. must prepare for challenges from Russia, China

By Tara Copp
Stars and Stripes
Published: November 7, 2015

SIMI VALLEY, Calif. –The United States must develop new strategies and weapons to challenge aggression from China and Russia, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said Saturday at the Reagan National Defense Forum.

“That is a generational challenge, like it was in Reagan’s time,” Carter said during a speech at the forum held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Center for Public Affairs. “In the face of Russia’s provocations and China’s rise, we must embrace innovative approaches to protect the United States.”

Carter’s speech follows a week of travel through Asia, where the contested waters of the South China Sea dominated the trip.

At the meeting of the Association of South East Asian Nations in Malaysia, defense ministers failed to reach a consensus on territorial claims in the South China Sea. The matter became a behind-the-scenes power struggle between the U.S. and China, and the ministers ultimately abandoned a joint statement that traditionally ends the annual summit.

“We’re putting our best and newest assets in the region,” Carter said Saturday about tensions with China. “Qualitatively, we are making heavy investments in capabilities of importance there: subsurface warfare, electronic warfare, space, cyber, missile defense, and more.”

The day after the ASEAN summit ended, Carter stood on the deck of the USS Theodore Roosevelt as the massive nuclear-powered aircraft carrier sailed through the South China Sea, enforcing the U.S. stance on freedom of navigation in those waters.

On Russia, Carter said he would continue to welcome cooperation when possible, such as multination talks that include Russia and aim to inspire North Korea to surrender its nuclear ambitions.


Carter also spoke of Russia’s increased aggressive behavior.

“The United States is accordingly making a number of moves in response, many but not all of which I can describe in this forum,” he said.

Carter did mention the United States sending additional tanks, aircraft and troops to defend eastern Europe.

“We do not seek a cold, let alone hot war with Russia,” Carter said. “We do not seek to make Russia an enemy. But make no mistake. The United States will defend our interests, our allies, the principled international order, and the positive future it affords us all.”

Copp.Tara@Stripes.com
Twitter:@TaraCopp

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2015/11/07/the_new_latin_america_111545.html

https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/new-latin-america

The New Latin America

Geopolitical Weekly
November 3, 2015 | 08:00 GMT
By Reggie Thompson

Several years into a Chinese economic slowdown, the Latin American economies that relied on China to buy up their key exports are feeling the pain. With less hard currency coming in, governments across the region are rapidly readjusting their spending plans and preparing to govern in an environment in which they will have fewer resources to secure their key constituents' political loyalties.

The Role of Geography

Ever since commodity prices began dropping several years ago, much has been written about how slow economic growth and potential political instability will plague Latin America in coming years. But what will Latin America as a whole look like in a decade as a result of the Chinese economic downturn? What ideologies will dominate in a continent that over the past decade veered toward leftist populism? And what issues will define its relationship with the United States, the hemisphere's undisputed hegemon?

The region's geopolitics hold the beginning of an answer. The first step is to view Latin America's geographic regions and countries as a series of divided islands rather than a united entity. Unlike Western Europe, where the relative absence of natural obstacles eventually gave rise to interconnected political entities, South America is bisected by the dense Amazon rainforest and divided lengthwise by the nearly insurmountable Andean mountain range. Latin American colonies were divided even before the collapse of the Spanish Empire in the Americas more than two centuries ago. After independence, this disconnected geographic landscape created dozens of economies of wildly varying sizes often more linked by trade with partners outside the region than with each other. With few unbroken expanses of arable land and high transport costs across the forests and mountains, Latin America was simply not in a position to create capital on the scale of the United States or Western Europe. Consequently, even major Latin American states such as Brazil or Mexico remain highly reliant on inflows of cash from abroad to keep their economies afloat and rely on exports to China or the United States for a significant part of their foreign trade.

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/defa...es/latam-exports-gdp-growth.png?itok=nwaXgYWI

Unsurprisingly, the goal of forming institutions that can provide lasting political and economic unity has eluded Latin American statesmen. Numerous attempts have been made to unite the fractious region: Simon Bolivar's ill-fated 19th-century bid to unite South America, a similar attempt at uniting the Central American states into a federation and the more recent creation of separate economic blocs in Latin America. Yet the isolation created by geographic barriers has foiled leaders' attempts to unite the region's countries into a real economic or political union on the scale of the European Union or even the North American Free Trade Agreement. In recent history, the closest that Latin American states came to some sort of unity — besides regional trading blocs such as the Common Market of the South and the Pacific Alliance — was the wave of leftist populist governments that swept the continent beginning in the early 2000s. But after a decade of budgets and politics buoyed by high commodity prices, the raw realities of geopolitics are back with a vengeance.

The Shape of Governments to Come

We cannot define the exact nature of the national governments that will emerge during the next decade; short-term actions are less predictable than long-term trends, and attempting to forecast which people or parties will lead countries such as Brazil after its 2018 elections or Venezuela after its presidential election in 2019 is very risky. However, we have a rough idea of the shape these governments will take. With less revenue available to pacify restive populations, the new governments will likely be more economically pragmatic than their predecessors. This is not to say that populism as a means of governance in Latin America will subside; rather, rulers are likely to take more care in how they relate to their voters and the outside world.

Because the region is so dependent on foreign capital for continued economic growth, and because states' export revenues are so depleted (in Bolivia, for example, export revenue is down by nearly a third compared with last year), leaders are more likely to refrain from mass nationalizations or hostility to foreign companies. During the past decade, leftist governments seized numerous private assets in disputes with private firms. Except for extreme cases such as Venezuela — which, because of its default risk, economic problems and past expropriations, is already de facto cut off from most foreign lending and many investments — most states will likely now try to encourage investments rather than scare them off. Consequently, Latin America is likely entering an era in which the grand populist gestures of the past decade will no longer yield the same results as before and can, in fact, be counterproductive for leaders trying to restart their faltering economies.

The weakening of the Latin American left is another factor that will shape the coming decade. In the next 10 years, the governments that came to power during the boom times will reach the end of their tenures. The list of states that will evolve from leftist administrations into some other type of government is lengthy. Venezuela will reach the painful point of reckoning in which its ruling United Socialist Party will split apart. And as the party splits, Venezuela will undergo a painful economic restructuring and a political shift away from extreme populism. In Ecuador, leftist President Rafael Correa may not secure even another four-year term. In Bolivia, low export prices for natural gas will put President Evo Morales' ability to secure another decade in office to the test.

Perhaps the only exception will be Colombia, where a possible peace deal with rebel groups could bring the left into the national fold, which could lead other parties to co-opt more leftist ideas. But even Cuba, long the bastion of Latin America's left and its ideological center, will eventually move into the United States' political orbit, likely in exchange for the lifting of the five-decade trade embargo.

The left's decline will give the United States an exceptionally benign climate for managing its relationships and priorities to the south. To be sure, longstanding concerns — such as trade, drug trafficking and illegal migration — guiding the United States' actions in much of Latin America will remain. But the bumper crop of leftist states that were often minor hindrances to U.S. political moves in the region will become less of a factor in the next decade. Washington's new priorities in the region, such as cushioning Venezuela's economic collapse and bringing Cuba into some sort of improved trade relationship, will occupy the United States' time.

Of the states currently undergoing deep economic downturns, several seem poised to make a resurgence. Mexico is an outlier, given than it is so linked to the United States through trade. But those links will ensure that despite problematic public finances, Mexico will remain a major force in Latin American economic growth. For Peru and Colombia, international trade will drop over the next several years, but their stable public finances will likely ensure some degree of social stability. And even Brazil, in the midst of a massive corruption scandal at Petrobras, will ride out the crisis due to its strong (albeit currently strained) domestic manufacturing base and sheer economic size.

Re-Emerging Differences

The rampant populism of the past 15 years — bolstered by rapidly increasing exports to hungry markets abroad — imposed a false appearance of unity among the Latin American leftist states. Superficially, Nestor Kirchner's Argentina appeared to have much in common with Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, even though both countries' individual geographic and political characteristics ultimately dictated the governments' decisions. With the rise of another leftist bloc unlikely in the next decade, the divided nature of Latin America will again become evident.

And the continent's divided nature means that the shortcomings of international bodies there, such as the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) and the Union of South American Nations (Unasur), will become even more self-evident. For example, Brasilia will use Mercosur to do what is in its own immediate benefit: increase trade links with Latin American states outside its immediate neighborhood, such as Mexico. But truly lucrative deals, such as a Mercosur-European Union trade agreement, will remain just out of reach because they require full approval of all the group's members. Mercosur's other key member, Argentina, opposes any such deals lest they harm its domestic industry. Consequently, Brazil will continue looking for small bilateral deals, but it will continue to be hamstrung by Mercosur. Unasur, on the other hand, which was originally conceived of as a sort of South American United Nations, is highly unlikely to progress beyond a regional body that meets a couple of times a year. It is not that there is no political will in Latin America to push toward greater unity, but unlike the European Union, such bodies cannot be superimposed onto a region whose trade ties and key political relationships are focused toward other continents rather than each other.

The next decade will bring with it some political and economic continuity. The region will maintain its fundamental relationship with the rest of the globe, in which its foreign trade is overwhelmingly skewed toward the export of raw materials and its economies are heavily reliant on foreign capital markets. But deeper internal changes are already in motion, and the states of the region will change accordingly. The parties at the helm of these states will be different, and the way these parties relate with the outside world on a political and economic level will be undeniably different. Over the next 10 years, the shortcomings of extreme reliance on the Chinese economy will spur cost-cutting and domestic economic diversification. The trappings of the Cold War will fade in Latin America as leaders are replaced and political institutions evolve, but the new Latin America will continue to be more defined by its divisions than by any idea of unity.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2015/11/06/is_kurdish_statehood_possible.html

November 6, 2015

Is Kurdish Statehood Possible?

By Kevin Sullivan
Comments 9

Ever since the Islamic State group began to lay claim to large stretches of territory in Syria and Iraq, conventional wisdom has dictated that the Kurds, even while relentlessly opposing the jihadist group, stand to benefit from the disintegration of state authority in the two countries.

During the summer of 2014, when Iraqi troops abandoned their posts in the northern city of Kirkuk, it was Kurdish peshmerga forces that stepped in to defend the oil-rich enclave from the advances of ISIS. "Six Iraqi divisions melted like the snow," said Masoud Barzani, president of the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), in an interview later that year with The New Yorker. "I saw it in an opportunistic way."

Indeed, be it in Iraq, where the Kurds have served as the tip of the Iraqi spear against ISIS, or in Syria, where Kurdish rebel forces have become an invaluable American ally, it would appear that each ISIS defeat has created an opportunity for Kurds across the region.

"The Kurds, despite their large numbers (about 30 million worldwide), as well as their shared language, culture and identity, have never had a nation. But they're getting closer to one with every battle," wrote Time's Karl Vick earlier this year.

So, have the Kurds -- the largest ethnic group in the world still without a state -- altered the so-called facts on the ground? Has the Kurdish moment finally arrived?

Not so fast, writes Denise Natali of the Institute for National Strategic Studies. While the Kurdish government of northern Iraq appears to have laid the foundation for statehood, the region "remains a landlocked, quasi-state entity lacking external sovereignty." Natali goes on:

"This condition means that the degree and nature of Kurdish autonomy, including any potential for independence, is not determined by unilateral decisions made by Kurdish elites but rather by the demands, deals, and incentive structures brokered by powerful regional states and non-state actors."

Moreover, while Iraqi Kurdistan is rich in oil, it lacks the infrastructure to deliver crude to world markets, placing unilateral energy deals reached with neighboring Turkey, for example, on a shaky legal foundation:

"Because the Kurdistan Region is not a sovereign entity and continues to rely on Iraqi pipeline infrastructure, its exports are not fully independent. Baghdad retains international legal rights over oil flows and revenues from the [Iraq-Turkey Pipeline] based on the 2010 pipeline Tariff Agreement negotiated with Turkey -- and has already filed litigation against Ankara at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris. It has also threatened to penalize [oil] and shipping companies that purchase Kurdish crude apart from [Baghdad], reinforcing the legal risks and opaque nature of KRG oil exports and sales. Moreover, Baghdad has cut the KRG budget (except for monthly food allocations), which represents 95 percent of the KRG's operating expenses."

Erbil's ongoing dispute with Baghdad over oil revenue sharing -- in addition to a growing refugee crisis -- has put a crunch on the flailing Kurdish economy, which had already been plagued by corruption and cronyism. A brewing succession crisis has only made matters worse within the KRG. Recent calls by rival political factions for Barzani to step down -- his presidential term ended in August -- have resulted in protests and violence.

The prospects for Kurdish statehood appear no better in neighboring Syria. While Kurdish YPG forces have taken on a key role in the United States' war against ISIS, there is virtually no chance that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- emboldened by his party's decisive victory in last weekend's parliamentary elections -- will allow any gains made by Syria's Kurds to evolve into a sovereign state. Turkish affairs expert Aaron Stein explains:

"Turkey's strategy is independent of the U.S. reliance on the YPG for operations east of Euphrates. This new AKP government is likely to continue with this program to provide rebels with weapons, particularly now that Russia has intervened on behalf of the Assad regime. The new Turkish government is also likely to continue to put pressure on the United States to adopt its preferred policy in Syria: the formation of a 110-kilometer-wide buffer zone extending up to 33 kilometers south into Aleppo province.

"This zone would provide a safe haven for refugees and a key area for the anti-Assad rebels to back-base. This proposed zone would also be free of the YPG, which Ankara accuses of indirectly bolstering the Assad regime by working at cross-purposes to the insurgency. Turkey has made one thing very clear: It will not tolerate a YPG presence west of the Euphrates, and will therefore not accept a Kurdish-led offensive on the ISIS-held city of Jarablus, or any YPG-led effort to unite its territory with the Kurdish-controlled enclave in Efrin in northwestern Syria."

The Kurds, in conclusion, may once again end up the victims of great power posturing, much as they did at the conclusion of World War I. Kurdish ambitions will continue to be tempered and curtailed so long as Ankara and Baghdad continue to play important roles in the plans of larger regional actors.

Around the Region

Why El-Sissi and Putin protest. The timing of Egyptian President Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi's trip to London couldn't have been worse. El-Sissi had hoped to use the visit as an opportunity to press the British government on violence and instability in nearby Libya. The Egyptian president was instead put on the spot, as Britain -- citing concerns about the cause of last weekend's mysterious plane crash in Sinai, which killed all passengers on board -- halted all flights between Sinai and the United Kingdom.

The Egyptian government -- along with the Russian government -- bristled at suggestions by Washington and Westminster that the plane may have been downed by a terrorist bomb, calling it mere speculation.

While still inconclusive, proof that a bomb downed the plane would challenge the preferred security narrative shared by El-Sissi and Putin. Testifying before the House of Representatives, Brookings expert Shadi Hamid explained just how flimsy the so-called authoritarian stability model truly is:

"By any measurable standard, Egypt is more vulnerable to violence and insurgency today than it had been before. Moreover, Egypt's ineffective counterterrorism policies are fueling the very insurgency it claims to be fighting. This past July, as many as 64 soldiers were killed in coordinated attacks by Egypt's ISIS affiliate, the so-called Sinai Province. It was the worst death toll in decades, and came just days after the country's chief prosecutor, Hisham Barakat, was assassinated. But these were not isolated incidents. According to the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, July 2013, the month of the coup, saw a massive uptick in violence, from 13 to 95 attacks. The number of attacks dipped in subsequent months ... but remained significantly higher than before the coup. The pre-and-post coup discrepancy becomes even more obvious when we zoom out further: From July 2013 to May 2015, there were a total of 1,223 attacks over 23 months, an average of 53.2 attacks per month. In the 23 months prior to June 2013, there were a mere 78 attacks, an average of 3.4 attacks per month."

Denominational dumps? With trash continuing to pile up in Beirut and around the country, Lebanese lawmakers are now debating the development of sectarian, religiously-based landfills. Al-Monitor's Sami Nader reports:

"The point of contention is the location and distribution of the landfills among the provinces, a problem that at this point has taken on a sectarian character, like the overall power structure in the country. Although Lebanon's various regions are home to a mix of sects, they are still characterized by sectarian division. The solution on the table suggests distributing waste on a regional basis, but this by nature also means on a sectarian basis. Thus talk of Shiite, Sunni and Christian landfills has emerged.

"No sect has shown a willingness to receive waste from other areas or sects in its region. No political party, which essentially represent religious groups in the Council of Ministers, is willing to allow into its constituency the waste of other regions or religious groups.

"Following much controversy, one agreement was reached in which a landfill in the Shiite area of the Bekaa agreed to take in waste produced in Shiite areas elsewhere. Discussions are underway to develop a landfill in the Srar region, in Sunni-dominated Akkar, in the north. This landfill would receive and treat waste produced in Beirut, especially its Sunni areas, because efforts to develop a landfill in the densely populated capital have failed."

 

[vestige]

From #2:


"Kenyans remain divided along ethnic lines,"

Strange comment….

They all look the same to me.




• Moses Kuria was the legislator from Gatundu South— the president's home area— who spoke to the youth with machetes in July. He also claims he was quoted out of context, but when the host of a TV program played a video of him urging attacks, he walked out of the studio. He has been charged in court with hate speech and incitement to violence.

...but not so for Calypso Louie and Al Sharpton


• In a telephone interview with The Associated Press, he said the local media, the police, the judiciary and people who cheer on the hatemongers all share blame for the situation.


Sound familiar?

 

[Housecarl]

Another move that in the long run is going to bite someone....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151108/eu--serbia-libya-abduction-25d8c13fb6.html

Gunmen in Libya abduct 2 Serbian Embassy employees

Nov 8, 4:16 PM (ET)

BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — Gunmen in Libya crashed into a convoy of vehicles taking Serbia's ambassador to neighboring Tunisia and then kidnapped two other embassy employees, officials said.

The embassy's communications officer, Sladjana Stankovic, and driver Jovica Stepic, were kidnapped in the northwest coastal town of Sabratha, Serbia's Foreign Ministry said.

The ministry is "doing all it can to get more information and secure the return of our citizens in a very complicated situation on the ground," a statement said.

Ambassador Oliver Potezica, who escaped unharmed and was traveling in the three-vehicle convoy with his wife and two sons aged 8 and 14, later recounted the attack.

"It happened like in a movie," Potezica told Tanjug news agency from Tunisia. "The attack happened when one of the embassy cars was hit from behind. When the driver came out to check what happened, he was dragged into one of the attackers' cars."

One of the Libyan security officers traveling with the convoy was wounded when hit by a spray of gunfire during the attack and taken to a hospital, the ambassador said.

The kidnapping "looked more like a criminal than a political act," Potezica said.

In Libya, a member of Sabratha's council said that the convoy had stopped at a motel on their way to Tunisia and then resumed their journey.

"They were ambushed by an armed group, and the vehicle carrying the ambassador and his wife managed to escape the ambush, but the group managed to stop the vehicle behind it, which had two embassy staff," council member Abdulghassim Krair said.

Military forces safely escorted the rest of the convoy to the Tunisian border, Krair said.

"We assured them that we will do our best to find the perpetrators and rescue the employees," he said.

Krair added that the embassy hadn't notified local authorities in advance about the trip, saying "it's not safe to travel through the area unguarded."

The motel was on the main road leading to Tunisia and close to the Mediterranean Sea in an area beset by smugglers and rouge militias. A number of kidnappings have been reported on the road recently.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151109/eu--spain-catalonia_independence-90ba52adf7.html

Catalonia parliament to vote on secession from rest of Spain

Nov 9, 12:29 AM (ET)

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — The regional parliament of northeastern Catalonia is due to vote on a proposal by secessionist parties that hold a majority in the chamber to set up a road map for independence from Spain by 2017.

The initiative defies Spain's central government, which considers it unconstitutional. A debate preceding the vote is set to begin at 0900 GMT (4 a.m. EST) Monday.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government has pledged to take legal action against the Barcelona-based parliament if it approves the proposal.

Although Catalan branches of Spain's ruling conservative Popular Party and the Socialist and the Citizens opposition parties filed appeals to halt the vote, Spain's Constitutional Court ruled Thursday that it could go ahead.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151108/ml--us_navy-35f560562a.html

AP Interview: US admiral sees no change in Iranian behavior

Nov 8, 12:13 PM (ET)
By ADAM SCHRECK

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran's landmark nuclear deal with world powers has done little to stop the country from pursuing activities beyond its shores that the U.S. considers destabilizing, the U.S. naval commander charged with securing the waters around the Arabian Peninsula said Sunday.

Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, commander of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, made the comments during an interview with The Associated Press at the opening day of the Dubai Airshow.

He was careful not to underplay the significance of Tehran's willingness to come to the negotiating table to hammer out a deal completed in July that gives it broad sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.

But he noted that other actions such as attempts to smuggle military equipment to Yemen and harassing ships transiting the Gulf continue just as they did before the agreement.

(AP) An Emirati man checks out an Apache helicopter during the opening of the Dubai...
Full Image

"We're still concerned about Iran's behavior overall. Positive about the nuclear agreement, but concerned ... about some of their malign behavior related to other things unrelated to the nuclear issue," he said.

Aside from the nuclear negotiations, "I don't know that we've seen a change in behavior," he added, speaking aboard a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol plane on display at the biennial show.

Donegan, a former Navy fighter pilot and aircraft carrier commander, took over as head of the 5th Fleet in September.

The naval force is based in the tiny Gulf island kingdom of Bahrain, just off the coast of Saudi Arabia. It is responsible for operations in a 2.5 million-square-mile area that includes the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway wedged between Iran and Oman that is the route for nearly a third of all oil traded by sea.

In September, a ship assigned to a multinational naval force led by the 5th Fleet commander intercepted a vessel carrying anti-tank missiles and other equipment believed to be from Iran.

That seizure came months after the U.S. sent an aircraft carrier and guided missile cruiser to the Arabian Sea amid concerns that a convoy of Iranian cargo ships was sending combat vehicles and other military equipment to Shiite rebels in Yemen.

"We don't think that was the only shipment that was working its way to Yemen," Donegan said. He declined to elaborate.

Iran acknowledges supporting the Yemeni rebels but denies it provides them any military aid.

In the run-up to the nuclear deal, Iranian forces seized a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship, claiming that the shipping company that chartered it owed money to an Iranian firm.

Days after it was released, an Iranian naval patrol opened fire on a Singapore-flagged commercial ship in the Persian Gulf. That incident was apparently linked to a financial dispute stemming from damage to an Iranian oil platform.

U.S. Navy ships continue to face occasional harassment from Iranian patrols, Donegan said. While most encounters with the Iranians are professional, they occasionally get too close in ways that are "unsafe," he said.

"The behavior we've seen is about what we've come to expect," he said. "They'll like to intercept our ships, especially the combatants, as they're going through the straits or in other places in the Gulf. They like to show that they can shoot weapons when they're in proximity."

In the heavily trafficked Strait of Hormuz, Iranian vessels have occasionally approached commercial ships passing through and told them they must fly an Iranian flag to ensure their safe passage, Donegan added.

For the first time since 2007, the United States has no aircraft carrier stationed in the Gulf. The last one left several weeks ago, and a replacement is not due until late this year.

The Navy says maintenance needs after several years of heavy reliance on its carrier fleet and longer-than-usual deployments are to blame for the gap in coverage.

Donegan said the U.S. can manage without a carrier for the time being even as it continues to handle the bulk of coalition airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, though he acknowledged he "wouldn't want sustain this for a long period."

U.S. Air Force and other military aircraft are stationed around the Gulf, Turkey and elsewhere in the region. The USS Kearsarge, an amphibious assault ship that resembles a small aircraft carrier and has planes and helicopters, also operates in the theater.

Donegan insisted that the temporary lack of a carrier is not a signal of the U.S. pulling back from the region — a growing fear among Washington's Gulf Arab allies.

"I don't think that anyone who looks at it too deeply is going to say that in any way we're leaving. Quite the contrary," he said. "We're here, and you can expect us to stay."

---

Follow Adam Schreck on Twitter at www.twitter.com/adamschreck.

 

[Housecarl]

This is not going to end well......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151108/af--burundi-killings-45cb805624.html

Witnesses: 9 killed in attack on bar in Burundi's capital

Nov 8, 2:00 PM (ET)
By ELOGE WILLY KANEZA

(AP) Burundians pray in a church in Bujumbura, Burundi, for peace in the country,...
Full Image

BUJUMBURA, Burundi (AP) — At least nine people were killed in an overnight attack at a bar in the latest violence in Burundi's capital, witnesses said Sunday, as security forces went door-to-door to disarm civilians in neighborhoods seen as opposition strongholds.

Residents found seven bloodied bodies lying on the floor after gunshots were heard Saturday night at a bar in the Kanyosha area, in southern Bujumbura. Two others who fled the scene later died in a hospital, witnesses said.

The bar's owner, his nephew and one of his employees were among the victims, Venant Rwakiranya, who lives near the bar and saw the bodies, said Sunday.

The gunmen ordered everyone seated on the bar's terrace to move inside before they started shooting indiscriminately, another witness told The Associated Press. The witness said he was grilling meats for customers when the attack started. The witness, who was injured and is now hospitalized, spoke on condition of anonymity because of safety concerns.

(AP) Burundians carry their belongings in Bujumbura, Burundi, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015....
Full Image

The bar's owner, believing the attackers to be robbers, asked his customers to hand over all cash and valuables, which they did, but then one of the gunmen opened fire, he said. Other gunmen, standing guard outside the bar, shot those who tried to flee, injuring or killing them, the witness said.

International concern is growing over the security situation in this central African nation, which been hit by unrest following the president's decision to extend his time in power.

On Sunday the security forces were combing the Mutakura neighborhood, searching homes for unlicensed weapons. Civilians are not allowed to enter or leave the neighborhood while the operation is underway.

A government-issued deadline to turn in illegal weapons or face extraordinary police action expired midnight Saturday and President Pierre Nkurunziza has urged the security forces to use all means necessary.

Many residents blame the police and security forces for the killings.

In the last two days some neighborhoods in Bujumbura emptied out as panicked residents fled to areas seen as less dangerous, Human Rights Watch said Saturday.

At least 198 people have been killed in Burundi since late April, when Nkurunziza announced his bid that was ultimately successful for a third term in office, according to U.N. officials. The actual death toll is likely higher, as many of the killings go unreported.

The U.S. is "particularly concerned" that the recent "inflammatory rhetoric" of some government officials and Nkurunziza's planned security crackdown this weekend "are increasing the risk of an outbreak of mass violence in Burundi," said U.S. State Department spokesperson John Kirby in a statement Saturday.

Although the current violence appears to be political, Burundi has a history of deadly conflicts between the country's Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups. Nkurunziza took power in 2005 near the end of a civil war in which some 300,000 people were killed between 1993 and 2006.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151109/lt-mexico-missing-students-282dd6d750.html

Mexico rights group blasts prosecutors over missing students

Nov 8, 9:28 PM (ET)
By MARIA VERZA

(AP) In this Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015, file photo, relatives of the 43 missing...
Full Image

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico's National Human Rights Commission is criticizing the Attorney General's Office for failing to address all the recommendations it made in July about the investigation into the fate of 43 missing college students.

In a document released Sunday, the commission said the office's response to its report has been "insufficient and imprecise" and prosecutors have failed to provide documentation to supports some of their positions.

The human rights commission issued a list of 32 omissions in and recommendations for the investigation of the disappearance of the teachers' college students, a case that has sparked large protests and outrage around the world.

The students from the southern state of Guerrero disappeared in the city of Iguala while commandeering transit buses to take them to a protest. The Attorney General's Office says the students were detained by local police on Sept. 26, 2014, and handed over to a drug cartel, which killed and incinerated them at a dump. Their remains were allegedly put in garbage bags and dumped in a nearby river.

But the commission's July report said the federal investigation had not developed profiles of each of the missing students that would include basic details such as blood type, fingerprints and distinguishing characteristics such as scars or tattoo. Many of the report's observations concerned the collection and analysis of evidence from the garbage dump in Cocula and the San Juan river where allegedly bags of their remains were dumped.

Later, an independent panel formed by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights also dismantled the government's official version of events.

The Mexican human rights commission said that of the 26 observations it made in its July report that related to the federal Attorney General's Office — there were also recommendations for state and local authorities — two were "partially attended to; one was partially addressed with a minimal advance; three are the process of being attended to and 20 weren't addressed" at all.

Late Sunday, the Attorney General's Office released a statement saying it was ready to fulfill "each and every observation" made by the commission and said it would send it new documentation next week.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151108/lt--venezuela-us-c5144a96a5.html

Venezuela says US intelligence plane violated airspace

Nov 8, 4:49 PM (ET)
By RICARDO NUNES

(AP) I this March 17, 2015, file photo, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro...
Full Image

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela claims a U.S. Coast Guard plane it describes as an intelligence aircraft violated the South American country's airspace.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said Sunday the Dash-8 aircraft flew out of Curacao, a Dutch island not far off Venezuela's Caribbean coast. He said that during a 30-minute period the plane twice entered Venezuelan airspace over the tiny archipelago of Los Monjes on Friday while performing what appeared to be a reconnaissance mission in the Gulf of Venezuela, which is also bounded by Colombia.

In comments on the state channel Telesur, Padrino said other U.S. reconnaissance and military transport aircraft had flown close to Venezuela in recent days.

While he offered no evidence to back the claims, he said the timing of the apparent maneuvers, as the country prepares for key legislative elections next month, was suspicious, recalling other U.S. military exercises that allegedly preceded a brief coup in 2002 against then President Hugo Chavez.

"It's completely unusual that these types of aircraft, with all their electronic surveillance characteristics, to come near our area of influence," said Padrino, adding that the USS George Washington aircraft carrier would pass nearby Venezuela around the same time as the Dec. 6 vote.

The U.S. Embassy in Caracas and State Department didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. The U.S. operates a so-called forward operating location on Curacao and neighboring Aruba responsible for drug-interdiction operation in the Caribbean region.

President Nicolas Maduro said he would denounce the alleged "military provocation" to the United Nations as well as regional groups such as the Union of South American Nations.

Relations between Venezuela's socialist government and the United States have been strained for years. Earlier this year, Washington sanctioned several senior Venezuelan officials accused of violating human rights of government opponents during a crackdown on anti-government protests.

Several other Venezuelan officials, including a former defense minister and the former head of military intelligence, have also been sanctioned for alleged involvement in drug-trafficking. According to the U.S. more than 200 metric tons of cocaine, about a third of Colombia's estimated production, pass through Venezuela each year en route to destinations in Europe and the U.S.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/08/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN0SX0H820151108

World | Sun Nov 8, 2015 11:39am EST
Related: World, Russia, Syria

Russian soldiers geolocated by photos in multiple Syria locations, bloggers say

MOSCOW | By Maria Tsvetkova

Three serving or former Russian soldiers have been geolocated by photographs in Syria, including locations near Hama, Aleppo and Homs, Russian bloggers said on Sunday, suggesting the Kremlin's operation stretches well beyond its air campaign.

Russia first launched air strikes to support President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's four-year civil war on Sept. 30 but has repeatedly said it has no intention of mounting a ground operation.

It has instead said it will limit its help to military trainers, advisers and deliveries of military equipment.

U.S. security officials and independent experts told Reuters last week that Moscow had increased its forces in Syria to 4,000 personnel from an estimated 2,000. A U.S. defense official said multiple rocket-launcher crews and long-range artillery batteries were deployed outside four bases the Russians were using.

Sunday's report by Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a group of Russian investigative bloggers, said that photos on social media had been used to geolocate three Russian serving or former soldiers in Syria.

"Although we still don't have indisputable evidence of Russian servicemen taking a direct part in the fighting on the ground in Syria, we believe the situation observed contradicts the claims of Russian officials that Russian troops are not taking part and are not planning to take part in ground operations,” CIT said.


Related Coverage
› After lull, U.S.-led air campaign in Syria intensifies

Russia's military jets are based in Latakia in western Syria, far from where the three men were geolocated.


SOCIAL MEDIA SCREENSHOTS

The Russian defense ministry did not respond to a written request for comment on Sunday to respond to CIT's findings and to clarify the nature of its ground operations.

CIT published screenshots from a social media account belonging to Ayas Saryg-Ool, a soldier it said served in Russia’s 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and from an account belonging to Vladimir Boldyrev, who it suggested was a Russian marine from the 810th Separate Marine Brigade.

It showed both of them had recently posted pictures with geolocation tags in Hama Province. Saryg-Ool’s page, which had previously shown him posing with a heavy machine gun and in the cab of what CIT said was an artillery tow truck, was not available on Sunday.

When contacted by Reuters on Sunday, Boldyrev denied in a message he was an acting serviceman sent to Syria, saying the picture of him and other soldiers had been taken when he was a conscript. He did not explain why one of his own pictures was geotagged Hama, Syria.

CIT also published screenshots from the Instagram page of Ilya Gorelykh, who it said had served in Russia's GRU special forces in the past.

In late October it showed he had uploaded pictures from Aleppo, one of which showed him holding an assault rifle while wearing civilian clothes. Another image of him posing in camouflage with three other armed men was apparently taken in Homs.

The pictures were not available on his account on Sunday.

CIT, led by Ruslan Leviev, has previously worked to uncover information about Russian military deaths in Ukraine. In late October it was first to report the first confirmed death of a Russian soldier in Syria.


(Additional reporting by Polina Devitt; Writing by Andrew Osborn; Editing by David Goodman and Hugh Lawson)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/1...ther-over-choice-new-leader-afghan-officials/

Afghanistan

Taliban factions battling each other over choice of new leader, Afghan officials say

Published November 09, 2015
·Associated Press

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan – Taliban insurgents loyal to rival leaders have been fighting in a southeastern province of Afghanistan, where about 50 men on both sides have been killed in two days, an Afghan official said Sunday.

Fighters in a breakaway faction led by Mullah Mohammad Rasool have been joined by ISIS militants, according to Mohmand Nostrayar, governor of the Arghandab district of Zabul province.

Rasool was elected "supreme leader" of the Taliban last week by a faction that does not support Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, who assumed power after the death of Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar. The Afghan government announced in July that Mullah Omar had been dead for two years, precipitating a leadership crisis in the group that has waged a 14-year insurgency against Afghan and U.S.-led forces.

Analysts have long pointed to divisions within the Taliban, but this is the first time a rivalry has burst into the open.

It is unclear how much support there is for Rasool, a veteran Taliban official. A Taliban commander loyal to Mansoor, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters, said Rasool's faction had joined forces with ISIS gunmen because it didn't have the numbers otherwise.

"It is obvious that Mullah Rasool's group can't face Akhtar Mansoor alone so they need ISIS. We said that before and now it has been proven," he said.

The ISIS group, which controls large areas of Iraq and Syria, has been slowly building a presence in Afghanistan. The group controls a number of districts in the eastern Nangarhar province, bordering Pakistan, and established a presence in Zabul province earlier this year.

Zabul provincial governor Mohammad Anwar Ishaqzai said the bodies of seven people who had been kidnapped in neighboring Ghazni province had been found late Saturday night in Arghandab. Most were kidnapped six weeks ago, he said, though one disappeared six months ago.

The four men and three women were all Hazaras, an ethnic minority who are predominantly Shiite, he said, and all had been beheaded. He blamed ISIS for the kidnappings and killings.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.omaha.com/opinion/carl-p...cle_82411402-68be-547a-839a-415f6741a7e6.html

Opinion

Omaha Daily Herald founded 1865 | Omaha Daily World founded by Gilbert M. Hitchcock, 1885 | Omaha World-Herald first published July 15, 1889

Carl P. Leubsdorf: Syria plan an admission of mistakes

For more than a year, the campaign against the Islamic State has relied too much on air power, despite evidence dating to Vietnam that bombing alone can’t stop a determined, indigenous foe.

Posted: Monday, November 9, 2015 1:00 am

President Barack Obama’s plan to send 50 Special Operations troops to Syria, following his decision to keep some U.S. forces in Afghanistan, is a tacit admission he went too far in implementing his campaign pledge to end the American involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and generally lower the country’s profile in the region.

But that does not justify either President George W. Bush’s decision to launch the war that overthrew Saddam Hussein or the criticism by Obama’s critics that the president could have prevented the rise of the Islamic State by keeping a residual American force in Iraq.

As is now painfully evident, both of the past two presidents went too far — in opposite directions. Bush clearly underestimated the long-term consequences of enmeshing the United States in the region to a greater military and political degree than was realistic. To a large extent, his invasion of Iraq created the mess that persists today.

But Obama’s determination to fulfill his campaign promise to end the U.S. military role in Iraq and Afghanistan failed to recognize the inability of those countries to resolve their many problems without strong U.S. leadership. And his failure to follow through on his vow to bomb Syria’s chemical and biological weapons created a perception of weakness that damaged this country’s future credibility.

Still, the region’s underlying problem remains the basic instability of what are, for the most part, artificially created countries such as Iraq and Syria, able to maintain territorial integrity only under the autocratic rule of strong-minded leaders who rejected democracy and suppressed their opposition.

Indeed, a strong case can be made that the region would be far more stable if Saddam Hussein still ruled Iraq, Bashar Assad maintained control of Syria, Hosni Mubarak was still president of Egypt and even Moammar Gadhafi was running Libya. Indeed, the region’s two most stable powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, owe their stability in considerable degree to their autocratic rulers’ ability to retain their authority.

Unfortunately, unlike many past global conflicts, the one that has wracked Iraq and Syria at enormous material, financial and human cost does not lend itself to any logical solution.

Ironically, it took Vladimir Putin’s bold decision to insert Russia into the chaos to produce some movement toward long-sought political negotiations and bestir Obama to move beyond the fiction — denied by his principal military advisers — that air power alone can turn back the quest of Islamic State terrorists to establish their unique and brutal type of order.

For more than a year, the campaign against the Islamic State has relied too much on air power, despite evidence dating to Vietnam that bombing alone can’t stop a determined, indigenous foe. U.S. efforts to foster a successful anti-Islamic State coalition have proved unsuccessful.

Unsurprisingly, division is widespread among Obama’s potential successors on the best way forward. They range from South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham’s proposal to ramp up the U.S. military effort with at least 10,000 ground troops to the position of such unusual allies as Democratic challenger Bernie Sanders and two Republicans, Sen. Rand Paul and Donald Trump, to avoid renewed U.S. ground involvement.

Republicans all criticize Obama’s handling of the situation. For the most part, however, there is far more caution in the GOP’s proposed prescriptions than in some of its anti-Obama rhetoric.

Sen. Ted Cruz wants to rely on a stepped-up U.S. air effort to bomb the Islamic State “back to the Stone Age” but doesn’t want to send more troops. Ben Carson and Jeb Bush criticize Obama for insufficient efforts while advocating steps similar to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton’s support for a no-fly zone to protect Assad’s opponents and the region’s thousands of refugees. Sen. Marco Rubio says the real problem is the lack of a broad U.S. strategy in the region.

At this point, no one seems to have an effective answer, leaving it likely the region’s problems will fester for years.

The next administration, whether headed by Clinton or a Republican, might well talk and act more assertively than Obama’s. But the country is likely facing what, in President John F. Kennedy’s epic forecast for the Cold War, is likely to be “a long twilight struggle” against an enemy more unpredictable and resilient than the old Soviet Union.


Contact the writer:
carl.p.leubsdorfgmail.com

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...s-part-of-user-trial/articleshow/49720522.cms

Ballistic missile Agni-IV test-fired as part of user trial

Rajat Pandit,TNN | Nov 9, 2015, 11.31 AM IST

NEW DELHI: In pre-Diwali fireworks over the Bay of Bengal, India on Monday successfully tested the nuclear-capable Agni-IV ballistic missile, which has a strike range of 4,000-km, from the A P J Abdul Kalam Island (formerly Wheeler Island) off Odisha coast. The user trial by the tri-Service Strategic Forces Command (SFC), which saw the two-stage missile being fired from a mobile launcher at 9.45am, met all mission parameters, said DRDO officials.

The country's most formidable missile, the over 5,000-km Agni-V, in turn is slated to be tested in January-February. While the Agni-I (700-km), Agni-II (2,000-km) and Agni-III (3,000-km) have already been inducted by SFC, the Agni-IV and Agni-V are currently undergoing developmental and user trials before their induction can take place in another two to three years. Before Monday, the Agni-IV had undergone one failed and four successful tests over the last five years, with the last one being conducted in December 2014.

The Agni-V, in turn, has been tested three times till now. The last test of Agni-V on January 30 this year was significant since it saw the missile being fired for the first time from a canister, which is designed to give the armed forces the requisite operational flexibility to swiftly transport and fire it from anywhere they want. The road-mobile Agni-IV and Agni-V are meant for deterrence against China, which can target any Indian city with its formidable inventory of long-range missiles. Once fully operational, Agni-V will also bring the northernmost part of China within its strike envelope, making it India's first true intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

The worry remains the lack of an operational submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) to complete India's nuclear weapons triad. It will become a reality only after the indigenous nuclear-powered submarine INS Arihant becomes fully operational. INS Arihant is currently undergoing extensive sea trials, which will include test-firing of the K-15 (750-km) SLBM, in the near future, say officials.

As reported by TOI earlier, DRDO is also working towards ``manoeuvering warheads or intelligent re-entry vehicles'' to defeat enemy ballistic missile defence systems as well as MIRVs (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) for the Agni missiles. An MIRV payload basically means a single missile capable of carrying several nuclear warheads, each programmed to hit different targets.: India on Monday test-fired its nuclear-capable strategic ballistic missile Agni-IV, capable of hitting a target at a distance of 4,000 kms, from a test range off the Odisha coast as part of a user trial by the armed forces.

Supported by a mobile launcher, the sleek missile was flight tested from the launch complex-4 of Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Abdul Kalam Island, formerly known as Wheeler Island, at about 0945 hours, defence sources said.

The indigenously developed surface-to-surface Agni-IV missile is a two-stage weapon system. It is 20 metres long and weighs 17 tonnes. The trial was conducted by Strategic Force Command (SFC) of the army, they said.

"The sophisticated surface-to-surface missile is equipped with modern and compact avionics to provide high level of reliability," sources in Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) said.

Agni-IV missile is equipped with 5th generation onboard computer and distributed architecture. It has the latest features to correct and guide itself for in-flight disturbances, they said.

The most accurate ring laser gyro-based inertial navigation system (RINS) and supported by highly reliable redundant micro navigation system (MINGS), ensures the vehicle reaches the target within two-digit accuracy.

The re-entry heat shield can withstand temperatures in the range of 4000 degrees centigrade and makes sure the avionics function normally with inside temperature remaining less than 50 degrees centigrade.

Agni-I, II and III and Prithvi are already in the arsenal of the armed forces, giving them reach of over 3000 kms and providing the country an effective deterrence capability, they said.

Radars and electro-optical systems were positioned along the coast of Odisha for tracking and monitoring all the parameters of the missile, the sources said, adding two Indian naval ships were anchored near the target area to witness the final event.

This was the fifth trial of Agni-IV missile. The last trial conducted by SFC of the army on December 2, 2014 was successful.

READ ALSO: BrahMos land missile successfully test-fired

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.france24.com/en/20151109-state-funeral-list-north-korea-triggers-purge-speculation

09 November 2015 - 06H25

State funeral list in North Korea triggers purge speculation

SEOUL (AFP) -
A state funeral in North Korea has sparked another fresh round of purge rumours after one of Kim Jong-Un's most powerful aides was omitted from the official funeral committee list.

Marshal Ri Ul-Sol, who died of lung cancer at the weekend, is to be given a state funeral on November 11, and the list of 107 names published on Sunday -- headed by leader Kim Jong-Un -- is an official Who's Who of the top political and military hierarchy.

A notable absentee, however, is Choe Ryong-Hae, a member of the ruling party's politburo standing committee and seen as one of Kim's closest confidantes.

Even if unwell, Choe would normally be on the list and experts said the omission of someone of his stature could not be put down to oversight.

"It's almost impossible that this happened unless Choe ... was removed from key positions," said Cheong Seong-Chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute think-tank in Seoul.

"I suspect that Choe might have been involved in serious trouble such as a major corruption scandal or defamation," Cheong said.

Seoul's Unification Ministry, which handles North Korea affairs, also noted the omission in a regular press briefing on Monday.

"We certainly view it as unusual given past precedent," said ministry spokesman Jeong Joon-Hee.

Choe was also absent when Kim paid tribute at Ri's wake Sunday along with several senior military cadres, according to footage from North Korean state TV.

Choe was seen as Kim Jong-Un's most trusted envoy, and was chosen to take a personal message to Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013.

And he visited Beijing again very recently, in September, as North Korea's representative at China's giant WWII victory anniversary parade.

He was mentioned by state media as recently as October 31, when he made a statement about a ruling party congress to be held next year.

Rumours of political purges and executions regularly swirl around the isolated North -- only to be rebutted when the official or officials in question resurface with their posts secure.

But Kim Jong-Un has been ruthless in eliminating even the highest-ranking officials whose loyalty may have been brought into question.

Kim had his powerful uncle, Jang Song-Thaek, executed in December 2012 on charges of treason and corruption.

The Kim dynasty has ruled the impoverished North for more than six decades with an iron fist and almost no tolerance for dissent.

© 2015 AFP

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Conflict News ‏@Conflicts 3h3 hours ago

BREAKING: Catalonia's parliament backs declaration to split from #Spain - @RuptlyNewsroom

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.wsj.com/article_email/u-...n-europe-1447034653-lMyQjAxMTA1NDAxOTIwNDk1Wj

World | Europe

U.S. Military Officials Aim to Bolster Troop Presence in Europe

Pentagon leaders propose rotating more forces to the Continent to deter Russia

By Julian E. Barnes And Gordon Lubold
Nov. 8, 2015 9:04 p.m. ET
178 COMMENTS

SIMI VALLEY, Calif.—Senior U.S. military leaders have proposed sending more forces into Europe on a rotating basis to build up the American presence and are stepping up training exercises to counter potential Russian interference with troop transfers in the event of a crisis with Moscow.

The new steps would allow for the presence of multiple U.S. brigades in Europe at any given time, increasing that number above current limits.

They were outlined at a forum here over the weekend by military and defense leaders, who condemned military aggression and threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin and warned that the U.S. must not let Moscow’s cooperation with the West in Syria distract from the conflict in Ukraine.

Russia has been involved in diplomatic talks over the war in Syria and the future of the regime of its ally President Bashar al-Assad. In late September, it launched a campaign of airstrikes in support of Mr. Assad’s government.



ENLARGE

.
Gen. Philip Breedlove, the supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said he would like to see more brigades committed to Europe as rotational forces. Decisions on the proposal, he said, will be made “in the next couple of months.”

Gen. Mark Milley, the chief of staff of the U.S. Army, said the Army is refining its training to ensure the U.S. military is able to face threats posed by Russian forces, learning to counter hybrid war, which blends regular and irregular forces, propaganda and unconventional tactics to sow confusion. He also said he was in favor of sending more troops to deploy—on a temporary basis—to Europe.

Such moves, Gen. Milley said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, are critical to ensure that no new conflict erupts in Europe.

“Aggression left unanswered is likely to lead to more aggression,” he said.

The generals’ comments came over the weekend at the Reagan National Defense Forum here, an annual gathering of U.S. defense and national security leaders.

The proposal for more rotating forces must be formally developed by Pentagon planners and then approved by the Obama administration and funded by Congress. The military will push for the inclusion of funding in a budget request to be sent to Capitol Hill early next year, officials said.


Related

NATO Looks at Stationing More Troops Along Eastern Flank (Oct. 28)
Russia Steps Up Bombing Campaign in Syria (Oct. 12)
.

At the same forum, Defense Secretary Ash Carter also issued a warning against Russian aggression. He said in an address Saturday that Moscow seems “intent to play spoiler” by “throwing gasoline” on the fire of Syria and criticized Russian “nuclear saber-rattling.”

Russian officials declined to comment on Sunday. Senior Russian officials have repeatedly said there is little difference between rotational forces and a permanent buildup. They have also repeatedly accused the U.S. and NATO of being the aggressor in Europe.

NATO countries are discussing increasing the number of troops stationed in members bordering Russia and putting them under formal alliance command. The next talks on that idea are likely to come in early December, when foreign ministers gather and begin discussing proposals to be formalized at a Warsaw summit in July.

U.S. defense leaders have been more hawkish in their comments than either White House or European officials as they focus on the U.S.-Russian military landscape.

Both the Obama administration and German leaders have criticized Russia as well, but they also have emphasized the importance of including Moscow in discussions over the future of Syria.

While officials have said the White House in recent weeks has asked some military leaders to temper some comments, the administration is pursuing a strategy that allows Pentagon officials the latitude to talk about bolstering defenses, while State Department diplomats try to engage with Moscow.

An administration official said it was reasonable for the Pentagon and State Department “to pursue different tracks.” The Pentagon, the official said, is focused on enhancing European readiness, while the State Department was pursuing “diplomacy where we can and where it is in our interest.”

Gen. Breedlove warned that by cooperating with Russia on Syria, the West will come to accept Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

“I fear that as we are dealing with Russia in Syria, the eyes are off the Donbas,” Gen. Breedlove said in an interview. “Why would we want our first negotiations on how we cooperate to be in Syria and then possibly allow the eyes of the world to accept what happened in Crimea?”

Mr. Carter defended what he called a balanced approach to Russia, saying Moscow may play a constructive role in resolving the Syrian civil war.

But signaling his wariness over Russian intentions, he said NATO needs a “new playbook” to deter Russia.

Defense officials said NATO would avoid massive troop buildups and instead rely on ways to get smaller numbers of troops forward from the U.S. both during a crisis and to prevent tensions from growing into a conflict.

The Army currently has two brigades—of about 3,500 soldiers each—based in Europe. It has assigned one additional brigade in the U.S. to serve as a regionally aligned force that will rotate into and out of Europe. Gen. Milley said he would like to add more brigades to those rotating to Europe, and add attack helicopter units, engineering teams and artillery brigades.

Russia has been building up and modernizing its military to make U.S. steps to reinforce European defenses more difficult. Russian submarine patrols and exercises have increased dramatically, Navy officials have noted.

Russia also has been increasing what military leaders call anti-access, area denial forces—air defense systems, surface-to-surface missiles, antiship weaponry—that can be used to keep opposing military equipment at arm’s length.

Other military officials have warned about such missile systems being moved into Kaliningrad—the Russian exclave located between Poland and Lithuania—and Crimea. Officials said Russia now seems intent on putting new weaponry at a base in Belarus.

In the event of a conflict, Gen. Breedlove said the U.S. will face a problem both with flying troops from the U.S. to Europe, as well as moving forces and equipment from airports and seaports to front-line conflict zones.

“The Russian navy is not going to stand by and watch us reinforce Europe,” in the event of a confrontation, said Gen. Breedlove. “For two decades we haven’t thought about the fact that we are going to have to fight our way across the Atlantic.”

Mr. Carter said the U.S. is investing in technologies meant to counter these Russian investments, including in lasers, a new bomber and upgraded drones. He also said the U.S. was “updating and advancing” operational defense plans against the Russian military, “given Russia’s changed behavior.”

Military officials noted that any new deployments must be carefully calibrated.

“The challenge here is to deter further aggression without triggering that which you are trying to deter,” Gen. Milley said. “It is a very difficult proposition.”

Throughout the later years of the Cold War, the U.S. military conducted a massive exercise called Reforger, that practiced moving tens of thousands of troops from the U.S. to Europe quickly. While there is no need to revive the exercise on that same scale, a new kind of drill that echoed the old Reforger operation would be helpful, Gen. Milley said.

“Nobody wants to go back to the days of the Cold War,” Gen. Milley said. “We don’t need exercises as big as Reforger anymore. But the concept of Reforger, where you exercise contingency forces … that is exactly what we should be doing.”

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...ands-presence-fighters-woody-island/75147522/

China Expands Presence With Fighters on Woody Island

By Wendell Minnick 3:02 p.m. EST November 8, 2015
Comments 1

TAIWAN — China’s deployment of the more advanced J-11BH/BHS fighter aircraft to Woody Island, revealed in photographs released via online Chinese-language media websites in late October, underscores how seriously the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is taking its claims to the South China Sea.

The placement of advanced fighter aircraft on Woody Island, located in the Parcel archipelago, extends China’s fighter aircraft reach an additional 360 kilometers into the South China Sea from the PLAN air base located on Hainan Island.

The new location could prove troublesome for US surveillance aircraft, such as the EP-3 Aries and the P-8 Poseidon, that fly through the area on a regular basis. In 2001, a collision between a Chinese fighter and EP-3 resulted in the death of a Chinese fighter pilot and the forced landing of the EP-3 on Hainan Island. In 2014, a Chinese fighter harassed a P-8 in the vicinity of Woody Island, which followed with a strong verbal protest by the Pentagon.

Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Chinese are demonstrating to the US, other claimants to the South China Sea and their domestic audience that they intend to protect their sovereignty.

Farther south of Woody Island, China is building air bases and port facilities in the Spratly Islands. These include Subi Reef, Mischief Reef and Fiery Cross. All three have undergone significant land reclamation efforts and expansion over the past two years.

“As China completes the facilities on its reclaimed features in the Spratlys, including air strips, hangars and fuel storage tanks, it will be able to base, or at least rotate on a regular basis, fighters in the South China Sea,” said Ian Storey, senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.

Some observers minimize the importance of military facilities and operational capabilities on China’s various claimed features, rocks and islands in the South China Sea, but Paul Giarra, president of Global Strategies and Transformation, disagrees.

“Chinese military aircraft and missile batteries spread throughout the South China Sea serve a number of important functions, all to the disadvantage of the United States and our friends and allies [including Taiwan] who have a stake in freedom of seas, the rule of law and their own territorial claims,” he said.

Giarra said this strategy entails six factors:

• They fortify China’s maritime approaches.

• They militarize China’s political claims, making it much more difficult to challenge them legally.

• They make it operationally much more difficult to dislodge China from these positions.

• These individual military capabilities are part of a larger fixed and mobile Chinese military network, not only throughout the South China Sea, but on the Chinese mainland.

• Military airfields throughout the South China Sea extend dramatically the operational range of land-based military aircraft, which can recover on these fields, refuel and swap crews in shuttle missions that change the military equation considerably.

• These maritime facilities push out the limits of the military’s footprint. This extends the boundaries of China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) envelope, and brings a considerably larger portion of China’s maritime approaches under the military’s firing arcs.

Taiwan-based Alexander Huang, chairman, Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies, said that it might be too early to focus on military implications. Citing the problems Taiwan’s Air Force faces with the operational and seasonal deployment of fighter aircraft at Magong Air Force Base, Penghu Island, Huang said weather and the salty sea air makes deployment on off-shore islands difficult for advanced fighter aircraft.

“If they intend to place J-11 on Woody Island around the year, it would be an ‘all-weather’ test to the airframe, parts and combat systems onboard before I do military implication analysis.”

Glaser agrees. “My understanding is that fighters are likely only to be deployed for short time frames in the Spratlys – the salty sea air would cause havoc to the aircraft over long periods.”

Giarra suggested that China's actions in the South China Sea mirror what the United States and its allies in the region should be doing: “expanding operational perimeters, distributing significant firepower along operational peripheries, and combining the psychological and legal elements of modern warfare in an integrated campaign.”

Email: wminnick@defensenews.com

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/china-stations-combat-aircraft-on-south-china-sea-island/

China Stations Combat Aircraft on South China Sea Island

Beijing has deployed fourth-generation fighter aircraft to Woody Island in the South China Sea.

By Franz-Stefan Gady
November 10, 2015

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The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has dispatched an unknown number of fourth-generation J-11BH/BHS fighter aircraft to Woody Island (known as Yongxing Island in Chinese), the largest of the Paracel Islands administered by the People’s Republic of China in the South China Sea, according to Chinese media reports.

Woody Island, located around 200 miles (321 kilometers) south of Hainan Island, boasts the only operational airstrip in the South China Sea, although China is in the process of construction of at least two more airstrips in the Spratly Islands.

The J-11BH/BHS fighter aircraft are most likely part of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s 8th Aviation Division stationed in Hainan Province. As my colleague, Ankit Panda, reported at the beginning of the month (See: “Chinese J-11 Fighters Exercise in the South China Sea After US Navy Patrols”), J-11BH/BHS fighter jets armed with missiles have recently carried out exercises in the South China Sea rehearsing “real air battle tactics,” according to the PLA Daily.

The exact number aircraft deployed to Woody Island and their deployment schedule are unknown, although it is highly unlikely that individual units will remain stationed for long stretches of time due to the difficulty of keeping advanced fighter jets operational under difficult climate conditions prevalent in the South China Sea.

“My understanding is that fighters are likely only to be deployed for short time frames in the Spratlys – the salty sea air would cause havoc to the aircraft over long periods,” Bonnie Glaser, a China analyst told Defense News.

Alexander Huang, a Taiwan-based defense analyst, highlights that the salty sea air is in particular an issue for modern fighter aircraft stationed on off-shore islands in the South China Sea. “If they intend to place J-11 on Woody Island around the year, it would be an ‘all-weather’ test to the airframe, parts and combat systems onboard before I do military implication analysis,” he added in an interview with Defense News.

The J-11BH/BHS is a single seat, twin-engine air superiority fighter produced by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation. It is based on the Soviet-designed Sukhoi-Su 27. The PLAAF currently operates around 260 J-11 of all types. In the past, the PLAAF purportedly had troubles with the indigenously-developed jet engine for the J-11, which required servicing after 30 hours, in comparison to 400 hours for Russian-made engines.

The deployment of J-11BH/BHS aircraft will be an additional obstacle for U.S. surveillance aircraft monitoring Chinese activities in the South China Sea. Stationed at Woody Island, rather than Hainan, J-11 fighter aircraft will be able to extend their operational range in the South China Sea by up to 223 miles (360 kilometers).

 

[Housecarl]

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...n-Artist-Sets-Fire-to-Former-KGB-Headquarters

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://abcnews.go.com/International/russian-artist-sets-fire-kgb-headquarters/story?id=35076038

Russian Artist Sets Fire to Former KGB Headquarters

By PATRICK REEVELL · Nov 9, 2015, 11:39 AM ET

A radical Russian artist has set fire to Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters as part of what he said was a piece of political performance art.

On Sunday night, the artist, Pyotr Pavlensky, walked up to the front entrance of Lubyanka, the hulking building in central Moscow that was once home to the Soviet KGB, poured gasoline over the doors and lit them ablaze.

A video released by Pavlensky showed orange flames filling the building’s entranceway and crawling up the doors. In a statement published with the video, Pavlensky named the act “Threat” and said it was meant to protest what he called the methods of terror used by the FSB to control Russian society.

Police quickly arrested Pavlensky, as he stood arms folded, with his back to the fire. Two journalists filming the piece were also arrested with him. Pavlensky has been charged with minor hooliganism, his lawyer told the Russian news agency Interfax.

Lubyanka is still a byword in Russia for terror and political repression, known as a place where under Stalin thousands of people were tortured and executed. The FSB now inhabits the building, a fact some Russians view as symbolic of a unbroken repressive lineage between modern Russia’s security services and the Soviet secret police. Russian security agencies still play a key role in running the political trials that are brought against those critical of Vladimir Putin’s rule.


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“The Federal Security Service acts with methods of uninterrupted terror. Terror transforms free people into a sticky mass of isolated bodies,” Pavlensky wrote in his statement. “The threat of inevitable retribution hangs over everyone who finds themselves within the reach of surveillance, of having their conversations eavesdropped on, and at the borders of passport control. ”

Pavlensky is known for his extreme performances, the most famous of which saw him nail his scrotum to the paving stones of Red Square in front of the Kremlin. In 2012, he sewed his mouth shut to protest the trial of Russian punk activists, Pussy Riot, and in 2014, he cut off part of his ear on top of a psychiatric institution to highlight what he said was the use of forced psychiatric treatment as a political punishment.

Pavlensky’s latest act was praised by some Russian oppositionists, although one of Russia’s most revered human rights activists, Lyudmila Alekseyeva, condemned the action.

"Why set fire to doors? Even if it's a performance, it's an idiotic performance. Imagine if a fire began, there were people inside, they could not have come out. If people burned, how would that be?" Alekseyeva told Interfax.

"He should be examined by doctors. A normal person would not think about doing such a performance," she said.

A Russian court has previously ordered Pavlensky to undergo psychiatric tests after the ear-cutting performance. He was found to be sane.

 

[vestige]

From #20:

In the event of a conflict, Gen. Breedlove said the U.S. will face a problem both with flying troops from the U.S. to Europe, as well as moving forces and equipment from airports and seaports to front-line conflict zones.

“The Russian navy is not going to stand by and watch us reinforce Europe,” in the event of a confrontation, said Gen. Breedlove. “For two decades we haven’t thought about the fact that we are going to have to fight our way across the Atlantic.”


“The challenge here is to deter further aggression without triggering that which you are trying to deter,” Gen. Milley said. “It is a very difficult proposition.”




That is EXACTLY why we were there in force since WW2.

That is EXACTLY why we built all the BLSA and upload sites in Europe.

That is EXACTLY why we built all the nuke sites in Europe.

etc. etc.

BTDT

The peace dividend didn't last long did it?

Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who didn't.

 

[Housecarl]

From #20:

In the event of a conflict, Gen. Breedlove said the U.S. will face a problem both with flying troops from the U.S. to Europe, as well as moving forces and equipment from airports and seaports to front-line conflict zones.

“The Russian navy is not going to stand by and watch us reinforce Europe,” in the event of a confrontation, said Gen. Breedlove. “For two decades we haven’t thought about the fact that we are going to have to fight our way across the Atlantic.”


“The challenge here is to deter further aggression without triggering that which you are trying to deter,” Gen. Milley said. “It is a very difficult proposition.”




That is EXACTLY why we were there in force since WW2.

That is EXACTLY why we built all the BLSA and upload sites in Europe.

That is EXACTLY why we built all the nuke sites in Europe.

etc. etc.

BTDT

The peace dividend didn't last long did it?

Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who didn't.

Not only didn't the "peace dividend" last very long, they blew all the opportunities it offered and burned up the loan they took out on it on cheap hookers, bad booze and "QA reject" drugs.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151109/eu-europe-migrants-cb99d70c1b.html

EU warns of refugee 'catastrophe' as winter closes in

Nov 9, 2:07 PM (ET)
By LORNE COOK

(AP) French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, arrives for a meeting of EU justice and...
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BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union warned on Monday of a looming humanitarian "catastrophe" with tens of thousands of people traveling through the Balkans to northern Europe as winter closes in.

More than 770,000 people have arrived in the EU by sea so far this year, overwhelming border authorities and reception facilities. Many have made the arduous land journey on foot through the Balkans in search of sanctuary or work in countries like Germany or Sweden.

The EU's 28 member nations have pledged to provide experts and funds to help manage the emergency, and to share refugees among them.

But the resources have been painfully slow in coming.

(AP) French Interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve, right, is hugged by Luxembourg Foreign...
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"The European Union must do everything to avoid a catastrophe as winter closes in," Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said after chairing the latest in a long series of high-level talks on the challenge. "We cannot let people die from the cold in the Balkans."

To help manage the influx, EU border agency Frontex has called for 775 extra officers, but member states have so far only offered about half that amount. Slovenia asked for 400 more police officers within a week to help out. Almost three weeks later, less than half has been pledged.

A so-called relocation plan is meant to share 160,000 refugees arriving in Greece and Italy, but barely more than 100 people have been moved so far.

"We need to move from the dozens to the hundreds," the EU's top migration official, Dmitris Avramopoulos, told reporters after the meeting in Brussels.

Asselborn said the ministers had discussed setting up "processing centers" in the Balkans, where people could be registered and given information as they travel further north. But they would also have to accept to have their fingerprints taken, which some migrants are refusing to do.

French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said that his country had committed to relocate 30,000 refugees "in coming weeks and months."

He also urged his EU partners to live up to their pledges and to enforce the rules in place on returning people who don't qualify for asylum back to their home countries.

"Solidarity can't work if we are not determined enough to implement the measures that we have already agreed," he said.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151109/eu--spain-catalonia_independence-90ba52adf7.html

Catalonia parliament to vote on secession from rest of Spain

Nov 9, 12:29 AM (ET)

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — The regional parliament of northeastern Catalonia is due to vote on a proposal by secessionist parties that hold a majority in the chamber to set up a road map for independence from Spain by 2017.

The initiative defies Spain's central government, which considers it unconstitutional. A debate preceding the vote is set to begin at 0900 GMT (4 a.m. EST) Monday.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government has pledged to take legal action against the Barcelona-based parliament if it approves the proposal.

Although Catalan branches of Spain's ruling conservative Popular Party and the Socialist and the Citizens opposition parties filed appeals to halt the vote, Spain's Constitutional Court ruled Thursday that it could go ahead.

Conflict News þ@Conflicts 3h3 hours ago

BREAKING: Catalonia's parliament backs declaration to split from #Spain - @RuptlyNewsroom

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151109/eu-spain-catalonia-independence-38a47b0694.html

Catalan lawmakers approve plan for secession from Spain

Nov 9, 2:17 PM (ET)
By JOSEPH WILSON

(AP) Regional acting president Artur Mas speaks at the Parliament in Barcelona, Spain,...
Full Image

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — The regional parliament of Catalonia launched a plan Monday to set up a road map for independence from Spain by 2017, defying warnings from the central government in Madrid that it is violating the nation's constitution.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy pledged to halt the effort.

The chamber, based in the northeastern city of Barcelona, passed the secession resolution in a 72-63 vote.

The proposal was made by pro-secession lawmakers from the "Together for Yes" alliance and the extreme left-wing Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP). The groups together obtained a parliamentary majority in regional elections in September that they presented as a stand-in plebiscite on independence after the central government in Madrid refused to allow an official referendum.

(AP) Popular Party of Catalonia, right, show Spanish flags and Catalonia flags at the end...
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Spain's government reacted swiftly Monday. In a nationally televised address, Rajoy said his government will appeal the decision at the Constitutional Court, which has in the past blocked moves toward independence.

"Catalonia is not going anywhere. Nothing is going to break," Rajoy said.

He added he would meet with the leader of the main opposition Socialist Party, Pedro Sanchez, to forge a common front against the separatists.

The resolution passed by the Catalan parliament in its first postelection session declared "the start of a process toward the creation of an independent Catalan state in the form of a republic" and a "process of democratic disconnection not subject to the decisions by the institutions of the Spanish state."

While separatist lawmakers celebrated the result in the chamber, opponents held up Spanish and Catalan flags.

(AP) A man wrapped in a Spanish flag holds a cigarette outside Parliament in Barcelona,...
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"There is a growing cry for Catalonia to not merely be a country, but to be a state, with everything that means," said Raul Romeva, head of the "Together for Yes" alliance.

Catalan branches of Spain's ruling conservative Popular Party and the Socialist and the Citizens opposition parties had filed appeals to halt the vote, but Spain's Constitutional Court ruled last Thursday that it could proceed.

"You want to divide a country by raising a frontier within the European Union," Citizens regional leader Ines Arrimadas told separatist lawmakers.

The Constitutional Court is expected to quickly rule that the law is illegal, but the resolution specifically orders the regional government not to heed the decision of Spain's highest court. It gives the incoming government 30 days to start working on a new Catalan constitution, which would later be voted on in a referendum by the summer of 2017, and begin establishing a new tax office and social security administration.

Pro-secessionist parties won their majority in September on the strength of just 48 percent of the vote. Anti-independence lawmakers say that denies separatists a legitimate democratic mandate to break away from Spain.

(AP) People hold "estelada" or pro-independence flags at Parliament in Barcelona, Spain,...
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As well as warnings from the EU that an independent Catalonia would have to ask to be admitted to the bloc, separatist forces also face an internal dispute that could slow or even derail the independence push.

Later Monday, the parliament began what is expected to be a long, heated debate over whether Artur Mas should continue for a third term as regional president.

While his "Together for Yes" alliance backs him with 62 votes, it is short of the required majority of 68. The anti-independence parties are against him, and the CUP has said it won't support Mas because of his conservative austerity policies and the corruption investigations involving his Convergence Party.

The parliament has until Jan. 9 to form a government or a new election must be called.

By then, Spain will have held a national election — on Dec. 20 — and the issue of how to handle the situation in Catalonia will play a crucial role in whether the Popular Party can hold onto power.

(AP) Regional acting President Artur Mas arrives at the Parliament in Barcelona, Spain,...
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Polls consistently show that while the majority of the 7.5 million Catalans support holding an official referendum on independence like Scotland, they are evenly divided over whether to break centuries-old ties with the rest of Spain.

Separatists have held massive pro-independence rallies since the Constitutional Court struck down key parts of a law that would have given more power to the wealthy and industrialized region in 2010.

The ranks of lifelong secessionists, who feel that the Catalan language — spoken along with Spanish in the region — and local traditions can only flourish in an independent state, have been joined by those suffering through Spain's economic problems and who believe that Catalans pay more than their fair share in taxes.

"The Spanish state has consistently frustrated our aspirations. That's why we are where we are," Mas said. "Catalonia is a country on the move. No lawsuit, threat or fear can stop the desire of millions of people."

Analysts say that with the regional and central governments on a collision course, they will eventually be forced to negotiate a way out of the impasse.

"The social and political pressure from Catalonia will provoke a political response in Madrid," said Jordi Matas, professor of political science at the University of Barcelona.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20151109/ml--yemen-400a67216b.html

Hundreds of Sudanese troops arrive in Yemen's Aden

Nov 9, 12:10 PM (ET)
By AHMED AL-HAJ

SANAA, Yemen (AP) — Security officials say hundreds of Sudanese troops have arrived in Yemen's southern port city of Aden, the third batch of an expected 10,000 reinforcements for the U.S.-backed Saudi-led coalition fighting the country's Shiite Houthi rebels.

They say Monday's reinforcements come as coalition strikes and clashes rage on in the western province of Taiz, killing three civilians and 20 Houthi fighters. Rebel leaders say they killed 15 pro-government fighters.

Yemen is torn by fighting between the coalition-backed government and the Houthis allied with army units loyal to a former president.

The officials remain neutral in the conflict that has splintered Yemen's armed forces. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to reporters, as did the rebel leaders.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-e-paying-eritrea-to-back-yemen-fight-un-says

Saudi Arabia, U.A.E Paying Eritrea to Back Yemen Fight, UN Says

by Ilya Gridneff
November 4, 2015 — 11:16 PM PST

- African nation allowed use of land, airspace, UN report says
- Potential violation of UN resolutions if compensation misused

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are paying Eritrea to help fight its anti-Houthi military campaign in Yemen in an agreement that may violate United Nations sanctions against the Horn of Africa nation, according to a UN report.

Eritrea is allowing the Arab coalition to use its land, airspace and territorial waters in a “new strategic military relationship with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,” the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea said in its report published Oct. 21. The arrangement would violate Security Council resolutions if Eritrea diverted the compensation “towards activities that threaten peace and security,” it said.

A request for comment from the Saudi-led coalition in Riyadh wasn’t answered. The U.A.E’s national media office and Eritrea’s Information Ministry didn’t immediately respond to e-mailed requests for comment.

Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. struck the deal with Eritrea earlier this year after failing to arrange a similar accord with its neighbor Djibouti, according to the report. Eritrea receives fuel and financial compensation in return for its support, which includes providing 400 soldiers who “are embedded with the United Arab Emirates contingent of the forces fighting on Yemeni soil.” The report didn’t give further details on the payments.

Supporting Militants

Eritrea, situated along one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes on the Red Sea, is less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) across the waterway from Yemen at its closest point. Sanctions were imposed on the country in 2009 after the government was accused by the UN of sending 2,000 troops to Somalia to support an insurgency by al-Qaeda-linked militants.

Sudan, which also borders Eritrea, is part of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, providing aircraft and deploying at least 300 infantry troops, according to its military. The alliance is trying to reinstate the government of President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi, which crumbled after Houthi rebels overran the capital, Sana’a, last year, forcing him to flee to Saudi Arabia.

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iAwsmG8OIpjc/v2/-1x-1.jpg

Eritrean citizens fleeing forced labor and conscription in the northeast African nation make up the third-biggest source of migrants who crossed into Europe by sea in the first six months of 2015, after Syrians and Afghans, according to the UN Refugee Agency.

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http://www.mareeg.com/saudi-uae-military-coalition-expands-into-the-horn-of-africa/

Saudi-UAE Military Coalition Expands into the Horn of Africa

by warka · November 7, 2015

The Emirati Armed Forces has started to use actively the Eritrean ports. According to our information, at least, three landing craft belonging to the United Arab Emirates were docked in the port of Assab on September 16.

A diplomatic row between Djibouti and UAE took precedence of these developments. On 28 April the UAE consulate in Djibouti was closed after the altercation between Wahib Moussa Kalinleh, the commander of the Djibouti Air Force, and Ali Al Shihi, Vice Consul of the UAE.

Indeed, it was the a formal reason of the departure of the Gulf Cooperation Council troops based on a plot of land that Djibouti had put at its disposal in Haramous in early April to set up its military base. Then Saudi Arabia and UAE redirected their efforts aimed to build a military base on Eritrea.

In turn Eritrea will likely seek to expand its relationships beyond the region in an attempt to break its isolation in the region. Djibouti and Ethiopia have been trying to turn it into a regional rogue state through the African Union. So, from Eritrea’s perspective, accepting Saudi and Emirati cash and resources would be a logical move. Indeed, Eritrea is ready to accept cash and resources from anybody who is ready to provide them.

There was a time when Eritrea supported Yemen’s Houthi fighters and functioned as a transshipment location for Iranian supplies heading to them. Thus, the Saudi and Emirati attempt to involve a new member state into their coalition has 3 goals.

First is to prevent contacts among Eritrea, Iran and Houthi. It will reduce Iran’s possibility to provide supplies to its allies in Yemen.

Second is to use the port of Assab as a local logistics hub, situated relatively close to the conflict. Given the distances that must be traveled over sea to get to Aden from Sudan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, the port of Assab is located at a vantage ground.

Third is Saudi Arabia will be able to turn Eritrea into a tool to destabilize the situation in Ethiopia. It’s possible through the monoethnic communities of Ogaden and Oromo controlled by Eritrea. The Ethiopian government is conducting a rough anti-Saudi politics and, de facto, destroying all pro-Saudi Islamist entities.

Alternatively, a recent U.N. report claimed that 400 Eritrean soldiers were deployed to Aden to support the Saudi-led coalition. The Emirati vessels in Assab could either transport the Eritrean troops or ferry equipment and supplies to the Eritrean troops already in Yemen. Assab is becoming a point on the Saudi-led coalition’s main supply routeIn any case, the Saudi and Emirati presence in Eritrea won’t be limited by the Yemeni conflict’s length. According to unconfirmed reports, the UAE took on lease Assab for 30 years. Separately, the UAE is seeking to take on lease a former naval base in Berbera in Somaliland. Thus, the Emirati activity in Eritea is a first step in a big plan to establish a naval base network at the Horn of Africa’s coast.

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http://allafrica.com/stories/201511020514.html

31 October 2015
The East African (Nairobi) »

East Africa: Three EA States Going to War - in Yemen!

By Kevin J Kelley

At least three East African nations Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan are reported to be directly involved in the war raging in Yemen, a country a short distance from the Horn of Africa.

Sudan recently acknowledged that it has dispatched a battalion of troops to Yemen to join a Saudi Arabia-led coalition fighting the al-Houthi rebel group.

"Our troops in Yemen are ready to do their military task under the command of the alliance military leadership," Sudanese army spokesman Brigadier General Ahmed Khalifa Alshami said on October 18.

Saudi Arabia and one of its allies, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have established a military presence in Eritrea as part of their war against the Houthis, a United Nations monitoring group has reported. The UN team also said it has received unconfirmed reports that 400 Eritrean soldiers are embedded with the UAE contingent battling the Houthis.

Similarly, Somalia's government is allowing its air space, land and territorial waters to be used by the anti-Houthi coalition. Foreign Minister Abdisalam Omer Hadliye told the BBC's Somali Service in April that "Somalia shares the same crisis as existing in Yemen and we cannot watch what is going on there.

Houthis are trying to topple a legal government so it is the responsibility of the Arabs to protect, and Somalia is playing its role to that end."

Although far from the frontlines, Senegal has also intervened in Yemen on the side of the Saudi-led coalition. The West African country has sent 2,100 soldiers to assist in the fight against the Houthis. In addition, two North African countries -- Egypt and Morocco -- have intervened militarily in Yemen against the Houthis.

Djibouti may likewise be aiding the coalition that is officially under the command of the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and that is receiving support from the United States. Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh said in a recent interview with Arab News that he has expressed "our firm support to the legitimate government against the coup carried out by the al-Houthi militia."

The Sunni branch of Islam predominates in Djibouti, Senegal, Somalia and Sudan, which is also the case in the GCC countries and with the Yemen government leadership displaced by the Houthis. The Yemeni insurgents practice the Shia form of Islam and are said to be allied with Iran, a Shi'ite-led country competing with Saudi Arabia for influence in the Gulf.

The predominantly Sunni East African countries may thus be seen as acting out of sectarian solidarity with the Saudis and the other GCC member-states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the Emirates.

Somalia and Djibouti have also both been directly affected by the fighting in a country that is less than 50 kilometres across the Gulf of Aden. According to the UN human refugee agency, a total of 15,000 refugees have made perilous sea voyages to the two East African states in order to escape the violence in Yemen so far this year.

Somalia's involvement may also be linked to military aid it has been given by the UAE.

The Emirates foreign minister visited Somalia in June for a meeting with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and a few days later a shipment of armoured vehicles and other military equipment arrived in Mogadishu from the UAE.

Received assistance

Sudan has also received assistance from GCC countries that may amount to a reward for its willingness to intervene in Yemen.

Sudan said in August that it had received a $1 billion deposit from Saudi Arabia. That followed an announcement in April that Qatar was making a $1 billion deposit in Sudan's central bank.

The UN Monitoring Group suggested that the Saudis and UAE "may be offering Eritrea compensation for allowing its territory and possibly its troops to be used as part of the Arab coalition-led war effort."

"Independent sources have informed the Monitoring Group that high-level delegations from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates visited the Hanish islands and met Eritrean officials," the UN report stated, citing March or April as the likely time of that visit.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki visited Saudi Arabia on April 29, and concluded a bilateral security and military agreement with King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, the UN monitors noted.

Although the details of that deal have not been disclosed, the UN team says it "understands" that the UAE has leased the Eritrean port of Assab for a 30-year period.

The report adds that the UN monitors have received "credible corroborating information that, as part of the arrangement, Eritrea had received compensation, including monetary compensation and fuel supplies."

The Saudi-led coalition also urged Eritrea to ban the Houthis from operating on its territory, the monitors said. "The Monitoring Group has received consistent information from a range of sources over the course of multiple mandates that the [Eritrean] government has had a history of allowing the Houthi rebel movement to use its territory to pursue military activities," the report notes.


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https://wgnmka.wikispaces.com/file/view/easafmap.gif/93365252/easafmap.gif

So they're accepting (if not or more correctly outright buying) direct military involvement from a regime that's president is under indictment for war crimes, that the US bombed (using cruise missiles) for supporting Al Qaeda, and was for quite some time cooperating with Iran and has now switched sides. The same thing goes for Eritrea.

Sudan was also very tight with Russia and the PRC. If they're going completely over to the Sunni side expect to see fighting start on the Egyptian-Sudanese border at some point with Egypt currently both in the US/Sunni and Russian camps.

10,000 troops is a little less than 10% of the Sudanese Army's active duty force. It would be interesting to see what kinds of units were sent by the two of them to Yemen. I haven't been able to find that yet.

As an aside, the Sudanese Military Industry Corporation in terms of variety of arms it manufactures is analogous to the Egyptian Arab Organization for Industrialization. So the Saudis "theoretically" have access to an arms supplier that can mark gear with whatever they want in order to cover its point of origin and will ship to them as long as the checks don't bounce with no other concerns.

ETA: Add these to the "refugee" crisis in terms of military age males coming out of East Africa (both as avoiding military service to tyrannical regimes and as agents of said same) and things look all the more "interesting".

 

[Housecarl]

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http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/11/09/us-eurozone-greece-idINKCN0SY1D420151109

Markets | Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:56am IST

Euro zone won't release new money for Greece until reforms done

BRUSSELS | By Jan Strupczewski and Francesco Guarascio

The euro zone will release the next tranche of loans for Greece as well as money for bank recapitalization only after Athens implements agreed reforms, euro zone finance ministers said, noting a Greek pledge the conditions would be met this week.

A European Central Bank Stress test showed at the end of October that Greek banks needed a total of 14.4 billion euros in additional capital if they were to survive a scenario of adverse economic conditions.

Some of the needed total is likely to come from private investors, but the euro zone will have to provide the rest, using all or part of the 10 billion euros already earmarked for that purpose in the euro zone's bailout fund.

"We await the finalization of all the measures in the first set of milestones and the financial sector measures which are essential for a successful recapitalization process," the ministers said in a document at the end of a meeting on Greece.

The euro zone recapitalization money is in the form of bonds of the euro zone bailout fund that can be transferred to the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), which would then hand them over to the banks.

"We stand ready to support the disbursement of the 2 billion euros sub-tranche linked to the first set of milestones and the transfer to the HFSF of the funds needed for the recapitalization of the Greek banking sector out of the 10 billion euros earmarked for this purpose, provided that the agreed conditionality is met," the ministers said.

Prime among the disagreements for the Greeks is protection for poorer families in danger of losing their homes through foreclosure.

Dijsselbloem said passing the foreclosures law was key before banks could be recapitalized, because it had a direct impact on the number of bad loans that banks would have to deal with through recapitalization.


Related Coverage
› Euro zone to hold funds for Greek bank recap until reforms done: doc

But Greek officials note that repossessions are politically sensitive at a time when Athens is undertaking to provide food and housing for thousands of asylum-seekers under a plan to handle the European Union's migration crisis.

Officials in the leftist-led government say a wave of evictions could boost support for the far-right Golden Dawn party.

Differences between Athens and its euro zone partners also remain in how to treat taxpayers who are late repaying overdue tax under a special scheme.

There is also no agreement on the minimum prices of medicine and on a tax on private education, official said.

"We welcomed the commitment by the Greek authorities that this conditionality will be fulfilled in the course of the week," the ministers said.

They said their deputies would meet at the start of next week at the latest to assess if the reforms have been implemented as agreed, paving the way for any disbursement.

Greece said on Monday it would need a political decision to overcome a dispute, so that thousands of poorer Greeks would not be at risk of losing their homes as banks repossess them.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker discussed the bad loans issue by telephone on Sunday. French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel also talked about it by phone.


Related Coverage
› Greek government official says expects deal with lenders by early next week

"Greece is making considerable efforts. They are scrupulously respecting the July agreement," French Finance Minister Michel Sapin told reporters. "I want an agreement to be reached today. France wants an agreement today."

Greek officials stress that Athens wants to fulfill all the points of the bailout agreement, but for the reforms to fly, they have to have social cohesion, which means not making life more difficult for poorer citizens.

"The Eurogroup will press Greece to find sufficient solutions till Wednesday," one euro zone official said.

"There is always room for compromise but I don't think the ministers would accept rules that are much more favorable for people not paying their mortgages than in any other country," the official said.


(Additional reporting by Francesco Guarascio and Robert-Jan Bartunek Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

 

[Housecarl]

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World | Mon Nov 9, 2015 12:34pm EST
Related: World

Divided and defeated, Turkey opposition faces decade in wilderness

ANKARA | By Jonny Hogg

In the space of just five months the Turkish opposition's dreams of coalition government have vanished, swept away by a resounding election defeat that could consign them to another decade in the wilderness.

When the ruling AK Party lost its majority in June's parliamentary elections, opponents of President Tayyip Erdogan scented blood. But it rebounded back into single-party rule with a surprise landslide in a Nov. 1 snap election.

Opposition parties were unable to press home their advantage after June - when they collectively won 60 percent of the vote - because they failed to form an anti-AKP coalition, with the nationalist MHP refusing to negotiate with the pro-Kurdish HDP.

Instead their divisions were exploited by Erdogan. He presented the snap polls as a chance to restore stability to the country at a time of tension over Kurdish insurrection and after two bombings attributed to Islamic State, and as the economy faltered.

"The opposition had a chance and they blew it," said Aykan Erdemir, a former MP for the leading opposition People's Republican Party (CHP) and non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Now, with a resurgent Erdogan seeking constitutional change to consolidate power in the hands of the presidency, the opposition could remain divided and sidelined for many years to come, according to political experts.

"They didn't just lose the election, they may have lost the system that allows them to win elections," said Erdemir.

The Islamist-rooted AKP took 50 percent of the vote and around 317 seats in the election, tantalizingly close to the 330 needed to force a referendum on giving Erdogan the executive presidency he seeks.


'MR NO'

On paper, the biggest losers were the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), both of which saw their share of the vote drop.

However, it was the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) that suffered the most. Although it increased its seats, the CHP lost the chance at a grand coalition with the AKP, which has faced little credible competition for Turkey's large right-wing vote since its rise to power in 2002.

Although Erdogan appeared from the start to oppose a coalition, in the run-up to polls ruling party officials signaled they were open to the idea if there was another inconclusive result. The AKP's resurgence left opposition hopes in tatters, with one CHP insider describing the outcome as "simply a disaster".

Anti-AKP coalition hopes foundered on the MHP's refusal to countenance any negotiations with the pro-Kurdish HDP; MHP leader Devlet Bahceli's refusal to do business saw his party's vote plummet, and led to some analysts dubbing him 'Mr No'.

In the end, Erdogan was able to pick the opposition off.

CHP, which has struggled to extend its reach beyond its traditional base of secular voters who make up around 30 percent of the electorate, ran its election campaign on economic issues, promising wage rises for low-paid workers.

In the run-up to November's poll, however, AKP abandoned talk of Erdogan's presidential system, instead returning to one of its core strength of economic management and largely outbidding CHP in terms of election promises.

Following the collapse of a government ceasefire with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in July and the surge in violence that followed left hundreds dead, AKP characterized HDP as terrorist stooges - and in the process won back nationalist votes and conservative Kurds who oppose the left-wing PKK.

"Erdogan cleverly opted for a security focused campaign, appealing to conservative voters' desire for security," said Fadi Hakura, a Turkey expert at London-based think-tank Chatham House. "MHP's Bahceli - or 'Mr. No' - simply showed his was a party of protest."


'INEPT AS A COLLECTIVE'

Following the election, it looked briefly as if Bahceli - whose party shed more than 4 percent of its votes - would step down. Not now. A senior MHP official said a post-mortem on the party's performance was underway.

"If that analysis shows we made mistakes, then we will take the necessary measures, but don't expect a change in the party's leadership," he said.

CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has seen support for his party stagnate at 25 percent since he became leader in 2010. One senior party official has already said he will stand against him at the CHP congress due in February, with others privately saying they will follow.

"CHP's direction should be towards the future, its method should gain the hearts of people, and a new management should be introduced," CHP parliamentarian Mustafa Balbay told Reuters.

Nonetheless, Kilicdaroglu and Bahceli will likely survive, for now at least, said Chatham House's Hakura. "There's no culture of accountability in Turkish politics," he added.

The HDP, meanwhile, will continue to be a major force in the mainly Kurdish southeast, although it has the task of differentiating itself from the PKK in voters' minds. In an interview with Reuters, its leader accused Erdogan of fostering a climate of fear to win the election, and of trying to create a "constitutional dictatorship".

All will not be plain sailing for the AKP - economic woes, the war in Syria, the problem of sheltering 2.3 million refugees and a crippled Kurdish peace process make it a difficult time to govern Turkey.

But the opposition's weakness means it will struggle to exploit any mis-steps by the government, according to Soli Ozel, a politics professor at Istanbul University.

"They were so inept as a collective after June 7," he said. "This opposition will not be able to pull itself together for a long time."


(Additional reporting by Gulsen Solaker and Ercan Gurses; Editing by David Dolan and Pravin Char)

 

[Housecarl]

U.S. to Help Iran Rebuild Nuclear Reactor
Started by JohnGaltflaý, Yesterday 05:17 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?478690-U.S.-to-Help-Iran-Rebuild-Nuclear-Reactor


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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...5fee4b0411d3072ce70?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

Iran Has Stopped Dismantling Centrifuges, Senior Official Says

Iran's hardliners continue to resist and undermine the nuclear deal.

Reuters
Posted: 11/10/2015 02:44 PM EST

Iran has stopped dismantling centrifuges in two uranium enrichment plants, state media reported on Tuesday, days after conservative lawmakers complained to President Hassan Rouhani that the process was too rushed.

Last week, Iran announced it had begun shutting down inactive centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordow plants under the terms of a deal struck with world powers in July that limits its nuclear program in exchange for easing sanctions.

Iran's hardliners continue to resist and undermine the nuclear deal, which was forged by moderates they oppose and which they see as a capitulation to the West.

"The (dismantling) process stopped with a warning," Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the National Security Council, was quoted as saying by the ISNA student news agency.

Only decommissioned centrifuges were being dismantled to begin with, of which there were about 10,000 at Natanz and Fordow, the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran has said.

Shamkhani did not specify what he meant by "warning", but the head of parliament's nuclear deal commission, Alireza Zakani, told Mehr news agency that the dismantling had stopped in Fordow because of the lawmakers' letter to Rouhani.

Zakani, who was not one of the signatories of the letter, did not mention activities at Natanz.

A group of 20 hardline parliamentarians wrote to the president last week complaining that the deactivation of centrifuges contradicted the directives of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Khamenei has said that the deal should only be implemented once allegations of past military dimensions (PMD) of Iran's nuclear program had been settled.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to announce its conclusions on PMD by Dec. 15.

Centrifuges spin at supersonic speed to increase the ratio of the fissile isotope in uranium. Low-enriched uranium is used to fuel nuclear power plants, Iran's stated goal, but can also provide material for bombs if refined much further.

Iran denied Western suspicions it was aiming to build a nuclear bomb.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://news.yahoo.com/iran-receive-russian-missiles-end-2015-minister-074717322.html

Iran to receive Russian missiles by end of 2015: minister

AFP
3 hours ago

Tehran (AFP) - Iran will receive the bulk of the S-300 air defence missile systems it ordered from Russia by the end of the year, Tehran's defence minister has said.

"We signed a contract with Russia. It is being done. We will acquire a large portion of the systems by the end of this year," Hossein Dehghan told state television late Tuesday.

He said Iranian troops were being trained in Russia to operate the surface-to-air missile systems.

This week, the state-run Russian Technologies corporation (Rostec) announced the signing of a delivery contract in Tehran for S-300 missiles.

Moscow in April lifted a ban dating from 2010 on selling the missile systems to Iran, ahead of Tehran sealing a final historic deal with world powers in July to curb its nuclear programme.

The decision sparked condemnation from Israel and concern from Washington, as it came before the lifting of the sanctions by the UN Security Council.

Russia will provide Iran with a "modernised and updated" version of the missile systems, following up on an initial contract signed in 2007, Rostec Director General Sergey Chemezov said in a statement.


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[Housecarl]

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http://news.yahoo.com/russia-deploy-weapons-counter-us-missile-shield-150816463.html

Russia to deploy new weapons to counter US missile shield

Associated Press
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV
15 hours ago

MOSCOW (AP) ¡ª Russia will counter NATO's U.S.-led missile defense program by deploying new strike weapons capable of piercing the shield, President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday.

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«Ã
Putin told defense officials that by developing defenses against ballistic missiles Washington aims to "neutralize" Russia's strategic nuclear deterrent and gain a "decisive military superiority."

He said that Moscow will respond by developing "strike systems capable of penetrating any missile defenses."

"Over the past three years, companies of the military-industrial complex have created and successfully tested a number of prospective weapons systems that are capable of performing combat missions in a layered missile defense system. Such systems have already begun to enter the military this year. And now we are talking about development of new types of weapons," Putin said.

His statement comes amid a severe strain in Russia's relations with the U.S. and its NATO allies, which have plunged to the lowest point since the Cold War over the crisis in Ukraine.

For many years, the Kremlin has protested the U.S.-led missile shield, voicing concern that it could eventually become capable of intercepting Russia's nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, thus eroding the strength of the nation's nuclear deterrent.

Washington, in turn, has argued that the shield was aimed to fend off missile threats from nations such as Iran and North Korea and wouldn't be capable of dealing with the massive Russian nuclear arsenal.

Putin argued Tuesday that the U.S. has kept working on the missile shield despite Iran's deal with six world powers that has curbed its nuclear program in exchange for relief from international sanctions.

"So, references to the Iranian and the North Korean nuclear missile threat just have served to cover up the true plans, and their true task is to neutralize nuclear potential of other nuclear powers, ... Russia in particular," Putin said. "Regrettably, our concerns and cooperation proposals haven't been taken into account."

Putin added that in the future Russia may also work on the development of its own missile defense systems, but will now focus primarily on commissioning new strike weapons.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia aims to spend less on its missile-defense system than the United States has done.

"The Russian president has repeatedly said that we are not going to follow the United States' lead and spend stratospheric amounts on a missile-defense system," he told journalists. "The president has been saying the options we choose are much lower in cost but no less, and maybe even more, efficient."


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[Housecarl]

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http://news.yahoo.com/russia-calls-syrian-constitution-18-months-054322827.html

Russia calls for a new Syrian constitution in 18 months

Associated Press
By EDITH M. LEDERER
5 hours ago

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Russia has circulated a document on ending the nearly five-year-old Syrian conflict that calls for drafting a new constitution in up to 18 months that would be put to a popular referendum and be followed by an early presidential election.

The document, obtained Tuesday by The Associated Press, makes no mention of Syrian President Bashar Assad stepping down during the transition — a key opposition demand. It only mentions that "the president of Syria will not chair the constitutional commission."

It calls for U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura to launch a political process between the Syrian government and "a united delegation of the opposition groups" on the basis of the June 2012 communique agreed upon by major powers in Geneva calling for the establishment of a transitional governing body for Syria with full executive powers, leading to elections.

Russia's deputy U.N. ambassador Vladimir Safronkov, who expressed regret that the document had been leaked, told The Associated Press: "It's our vision — it's our proposal."

"And of course we are receptive for proposals from the other side. It's just Russian contribution, how we launch a political process ... to make parties work together, government and opposition," he said.

The document was circulated ahead of a second round of talks in Vienna on Saturday among key governments on both sides of the Syrian conflict. De Mistura told reporters after briefing the U.N. Security Council late Tuesday that his message to the 15 members was "one word — momentum."

British Ambassador Matthew Rycroft said the Russian document was not discussed at Tuesday's council meeting "but we're aware of the Russian proposals."

"We welcome their engagement in the Vienna talks," Rycroft said of Russia. "We welcome any constructive ideas that will accelerate an end of this terrible conflict."

At the initial talks in Vienna on Oct. 30, the U.S., Russia, Iran and more than a dozen other nations agreed to launch a new peace effort involving Syria's government and opposition groups. But they carefully avoided the issue of when Assad might leave power — a dispute at the heart of the conflict that has claimed more than 250,000 lives and flooded neighboring countries and Europe with more than 4 million refugees.

Russia, Syria's closest ally, has stepped up its diplomatic efforts in the country in recent months, hosting meetings with some opposition groups. It launched a bombing campaign on Sept. 30 which it has claimed is striking terrorists in Syria, but the U.S. says 85 to 90 percent of the strikes have hit moderate Syrian opposition forces and have also killed civilians.

De Mistura said he hopes the second round of talks in Vienna will "bring some deliverables for the Syrian people, and one of them should be reduction of violence ... and I hope something in that direction can be achieved."

The Russian document, entitled "Approach To The Settlement of The Syrian Crisis," focuses on both opposition and "terrorist groups," and the need to differentiate between them.

It calls for the Security Council to agree to list the Islamic State extremist group, also known as ISIL, as "a terrorist organization," and agreement on an additional list of terrorist groups.

"When considering the issue of a cease-fire in Syria, operations against ISIL and other terrorist groups must be excluded," the document says.

It says the composition of the opposition delegation to the political talks "has to be agreed beforehand, including on the basis of readiness of respective groups to share the goals of preventing terrorists from coming to power in Syria and of ensuring sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of Syria, as well as secular and democratic character of the state."

When the Syrian government and opposition delegations meet under U.N. auspices, the document says they should agree on a series of steps:

— Launching a constitutional reform process taking up to 18 months to guarantee "sustainable security and fair balance of interests, rights and obligations of all ethnic and confessional (religious) groups in structures of power and state institutions."

— Forming a constitutional commission "to embrace the entire spectrum of the Syrian society, including domestic and outside opposition," with the chair agreed by all participants.

— Submitting the draft constitution to a popular referendum, and "after its approval an early presidential election will be called."

— Postponing parliamentary elections planned for spring 2016 and scheduling them to be held simultaneously with presidential elections on the basis of the new constitution. Assad was elected to a new seven-year term in 2014 elections that the opposition dismissed as a sham because of the impact of the civil war.

— Agreeing that the popularly elected president will be commander-in-chief of the armed forces and have "control of special services and foreign policy."

The Russians also propose establishing a Syria Support Group to help prepare the meeting and assist the Syrian parties during negotiations to reach "mutual consent."

It suggests that the group include many of the same members that are taking part in the Vienna talks: the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Lebanon, Germany, Italy, the U.N. special envoy, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the European Union.

Chinese Ambassador Liu Jieyi told reporters, "It is imperative that we start a political process by the Syrian people to work out the future of the country. And the process should be Syrian-led and Syria-owned."

Lithuania's U.N. Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaite said the council "talked a lot about the Vienna momentum, which in a way is what we all need. We need to hold on to a straw, given the level of tragedy. But then again, we need to see how it all proceeds."

___

Associated Press writer Cara Anna contributed to this report from the United Nations.

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[Housecarl]

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U.S. sees threat of more attacks on foreigners in Bangladesh

Reuters
12 hours ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Foreigners may be attacked again in Bangladesh, the U.S. State Department said in a travel warning on Tuesday that urged Americans to be cautious and vigilant in that country.

A Japanese citizen was shot dead in Bangladesh on Oct. 3 and an Italian aid worker was killed in the same manner in the capital Dhaka on Sept. 28 in attacks claimed by the Islamic State militant group.

"There is reliable information to suggest that terrorist attacks could occur against foreigners in Bangladesh, including against large gatherings of foreigners," the State Department said in a travel alert that cited the two killings as well as the Oct. 24 bombing of a Shi'ite religious procession.

"During 2015 there has been a series of threats and terrorist attacks targeting writers, publishers, and others in the media, including the murder of a U.S. citizen blogger," it added. "The U.S. government assesses that the terrorist threat remains real and credible, and further attacks are possible."

Attacks on foreigners are relatively rare in Bangladesh, despite a rising tide of Islamist violence over the past year that has seen four online critics of religious militancy hacked to death, among them a U.S. citizen of Bangladeshi origin.

(Reporting by Arshad Mohammed; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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Kosovo suspends deal giving powers to Serb-dominated areas

Nov 11, 6:12 AM (ET)

PRISTINA, Kosovo (AP) — Kosovo's Constitutional Court has suspended a deal with Serbia that would have given more powers to Serb-dominated areas in Kosovo, an agreement that has sparked violent opposition protests for two months.

The Kosovo opposition has disrupted Parliament using tear gas, whistles and eggs to demand that the government renounce the deal, and also one with Montenegro on border demarcation. The measures cannot become law unless voted upon by the Parliament.

The opposition has only allowed Parliament sessions when foreign guests have visited.

Following a request from the country's president in a move to calm tensions, the court on Wednesday said it has temporarily suspended any other legal act on the deals until their full consideration.

President Atifete Jahjaga hailed the court's decision that "only suspends implementation of the agreement pending the court's verdict."

"Kosovo remains committed to the dialogue with Serbia and the implementation of agreements reached in Brussels to normalize ties between the two countries," she added.

The opposition says it does not trust the Constitutional Court, which it claims is too linked with the government, and says protests will continue.

"There will be no normal functioning of the state institutions unless deals with Serbia and Montenegro are withdrawn," the opposition said in a statement.

Kosovo declared independence in 2008 from Serbia, a move not recognized by Serbia.

 

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Al-Shabab video shows executions of African Union troops

Nov 10, 4:38 AM (ET)

KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — The Somali Islamic extremist group al-Shabab had released a video showing its members executing African Union soldiers during an attack on their base in Somalia in September.

The video, reported Tuesday by SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors jihadi activities, shows armed fighters rampaging through what looks like a camp for Ugandan troops.

Al-Shabab says it killed more than 50 Ugandan troops in the attack on a base for peacekeepers in the town of Janale. Ugandan officials have reported only 19 deaths.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said after the attack that al-Shabab may have taken some prisoners and blamed commanders for being "asleep" when the attack happened.

The video shows an alleged Ugandan prisoner in handcuffs and other soldiers being shot at close range with an AK-47 rifle..

 

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Losing the International Order: Westphalia, Liberalism and Current World Crises[1]

The war in Syria demonstrates the limits of the Westphalian system—but it's still the best rulebook we have.

Peter Harris [2]
November 10, 2015

According to conventional wisdom, states in the twenty-first century inhabit a fundamentally liberal world order. And while the current international order certainly has its discontents, most in the West like to believe that most of the world accepts liberal principles as desirable ways of organizing international affairs. Current events, however, highlight the extent to which this conventional wisdom is wishful thinking: international order is not an agreed-upon set of international compacts, but rather the site of vigorous political contestation, and the survival of its liberal character can hardly be taken for granted.

Europe and the United States are the architects and stewards of the rules, norms and institutions that together comprise what is commonly referred to as the liberal international order. The liberal order-building project can be said to have started during the age of Pax Britannica, when the world’s leading great powers—the European empires plus the United States, Japan and, to a lesser extent, the Ottomans—gradually came to routinize certain aspects of their relations with one another. Growing free trade, an expanded corpus of public international law, the use of binding arbitration as a mechanism for settling interstate disputes, formalized institutions and agreements to regulate commerce, communications and the process of colonization—all of these international developments can be considered germs of the present liberal order.

Under American leadership in the twentieth century, this incipient liberal order witnessed at least three distinct phases of meaningful expansion: after World War I, with the ill-fated creation of the League of Nations and various arms control agreements; after World War II, with the foundation of the United Nations and the Bretton Woods international financial institutions; and during the 1970s, with the West’s embrace of individual human rights as a cornerstone of the international community. And with the collapse of the Soviet bloc in the early 1990s, this U.S.-backed system of rules and organizations appeared to be left as the only blueprint for how to orient relations between states. America’s unipolar moment meant that liberal order became total and all-encompassing—or so it seemed.

But as John Ikenberry has noted, the current world order is actually a fusion of two order-building projects: the liberal advances of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, to be sure, but also the much earlier order-building enterprise undertaken by European states in the mid-seventeenth century, especially in the form of the Peace of Westphalia.

As every student of international relations can recount, the leading powers of Europe convened on Westphalia in 1648 not only to formalize an end to the bloody Thirty Years’ War that had all but torn Christendom apart, but also to establish some basic rules that would reduce the likelihood of future such conflagrations occurring on the continent. Of course, the assembled statesmen did not entirely succeed in this latter endeavor: war was not banished from European soil with the Treaties of Münster and Osnabrück, and far from it. But the order that emerged post-Westphalia did shape European and later world politics in important and long-lasting ways.

Three central pillars of the Westphalian system are especially worth noting, all of which remain in place to this day—at least nominally: juridical equality between sovereign states, an expectation that the territorial integrity of states will be respected and a general agreement not to interfere in the domestic affairs of others. Taken together, these basic rules comprise the core of the so-called Westphalian system and the foundations upon which all future international order-building projects have had to take place—liberal international order included.

International politics in the twenty-first century thus takes place according to two distinct logics: a Westphalian logic, which emphasizes the autonomy and inviolability of states and their respective territorial jurisdictions; and an overlain liberal logic, which insists upon the inexorable eradication of difference between international system’s constituent units. A purely Westphalian world order is one tolerant of pluralism among nations, but liberal order demands that states be obedient to liberal principles in foreign policy (and in significant aspects of domestic policy, too).

Not surprisingly, the Westphalian elements of international order are the most widely accepted rules in circulation today. Few governments, liberal or otherwise, have an interest in renouncing their sovereign rights to independence, autonomy and inviolability. By contrast, the liberal components of world order have much less “buy-in” from national governments. Free trade, democratic government, national self-determination, adherence to international law, respect for human rights—these things are far from universally cherished, with only a subset of the international community being dedicated to their maintenance.

At a very basic level, then, there is a cleavage in world politics that pits some states (Russia, China, other non-liberal states) that see the Westphalian system as “enough” when it comes to organizing international politics against others that are committed to defending and extending liberal extensions to the Westphalian foundations. What is more, several of today’s most prominent international crises can be considered manifestations of this fundamental disagreement. And nowhere is this clearer than in Syria, where the liberal West and its non-liberal detractors visibly compete over how to define and apply the international rulebook.

Predictably, the United States and its allies look to the liberal aspects of world order when making their arguments about Syria. The West insists that Assad is committing war crimes against his own people, that certain rules must be followed even during the prosecution of warfare, that the outside world has a responsibility to protect civilians from harm and indignity, and that state sovereignty cannot and should not be used as an excuse to literally get away with murder. The Westphalian order is no order whatsoever if its rules permit the mass slaughter of innocent people.

Assad and his backers, however, have no difficulty in mustering rebuttals to such charges. Syria is a sovereign state, they say, and its government thus has a monopoly on the legitimate use of force within its borders. Foreign militaries have no business conducting operations in Syria without the say-so of Damascus. It is up to the Syrian people, not outsiders, to decide upon a form of government and to choose their leaders. And unless national authorities are allowed to maintain order within their own sovereign spaces, there can be no hope of peace anywhere on the globe.

For many in the West, it seems obvious which side is right: strongmen like Assad and Putin clearly are guilty of abject cynicism and ruthless pragmatism. Such rulers use the vocabulary of international rules only when it suits them; they pose as faithful devotees to the strictures of international law because they are desperate for any rationale that might excuse their brutal exercise of power. If these same rules stood in the way of their political ambitions then they would just as easily trample all over them. Who in their right mind would take a lesson on proper international conduct from Bashar al-Assad, a man whose government uses barrel bombs to terrorize civilian populations, or from Vladimir Putin, who brazenly used the language of national self-determination to justify the invasion and annexation of Crimea?

But charges of cynicism and outright hypocrisy can cut both ways. It is true, after all, that war is only justified under international law if waged in national self-defense or if authorized by the UN Security Council. Neither of these conditions would appear to be met with regard to U.S. bombing missions against targets in Syria (not to mention the 2003 invasion of Iraq). Nor is it uncommon for the West to turn its gaze from egregious violations of human rights, or to unevenly apply international rules, such as by backing Kosovo’s declaration of independence while opposing self-rule for other breakaway regions.

The truth is that international order is a messy, contested and often contradictory bundle of purported rules and expectations; it certainly does not provide a clean and clear-cut set of principles that can be applied in an objective fashion by world leaders. Instead, international order offers a variety of normative prescriptions that statesmen can and do use to justify vastly different policies, both liberal and decidedly non-liberal alike. International order is a repository of norms, but it is neither fixed nor agreed upon, and there is nothing inherently liberal about it.

The humanitarian crisis in Syria is the latest in a long line of international disputes that point to the ongoing contest over who will control the international order in the future—that is, who will define its contents and rule on its application. Today’s non-liberal states can be relied upon to vigorously maintain the primacy of Westphalian norms, which appeal to them now just as they once appealed to the monarchical despots and religious bigots of seventeenth century Europe. Ranged against them, liberal states and their domestic publics will continue to try to make the entire world in their own image, rarely pausing to recognize the hubris inherent in their actions.

It is too early to sound the death knell for liberal international order, but what events in Syria and elsewhere do seem to highlight is that the liberal edifices of world order command significantly less respect—both in words and in deeds—than do Westphalian principles when it comes to the application of actual rules. And if this is true today then it will even more true in coming years and decades. The liberal world order is fading. Westphalia, briefly obscured by the shining light of liberalism, is reemerging; ancient and well-worn, perhaps, but still hulking, resilient, and indomitable—and perhaps even irreplaceable.

Peter Harris is an assistant professor of political science at Colorado State University. You can follow him on Twitter: @ipeterharris [4].

Image: Flickr/United Nations Photo [5]

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Netanyahu doesn't rule out unilateral pullout from West Bank

In Q&A session at Washington think tank, prime minister says negotiated agreement preferable to unilateral steps, but such steps are possible if they meet Israeli security criteria.

Yitzhak Benhorin
Published: 11.11.15, 09:40 / Israel News

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that he is not ruling out a unilateral Israeli withdrawal of the West Bank.

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Responding to questions at the Center for American Progress think tank in Washington, Netanyahu said a negotiated peace deal would be better than unilateral steps by Israel to impose a solution to the conflict. But he indicated a unilateral approach might be possible under the right conditions.

"Unilateralism ... I suppose that's possible, too, but it would have to meet Israeli security criteria and that would also require, I think, a broader international understanding than exists now," he said.

However, the prime minister stressed, even if Israel does pull out of the West Bank - whether as a result of an agreement or in a unilateral move - it will have to keep its security presence in the territories.

He gave as an example the 2005 Gaza disengagement, as well as Israel's pullout from southern Lebanon, noting that even though Israel had left "every square inch," these territories were taken over by Iran proxies - Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon - and turned into launching pads for thousands rockets.

"So Israelis ask a simple question, which I ask: If we set up a Palestinian state, how do we make sure that state does not become another Gaza, and is not committed to our destruction?"

Netanyahu in Washington:
•Netanyahu: Palestinians are reason there's no peace yet
•Netanyahu, Obama agree to expedite talks on new military aid package
•Opinion: When Obama and Netanyahu ate from the tree of knowledge

Palestinians oppose Israel's demand to maintain security presence in the territories because they see it as blocking a "fully sovereign" Palestinian state, Netanyahu said. But he cited World War II losers, Germany and Japan, and South Korea, as countries that prospered under foreign security control.

He didn't say if Israel could eventually relinquish security control west of the Jordan River - part of past US peace plans.

Netanyahu also stated that "the question of Jerusalem and specifically the Temple Mount is unsolvable" at present.

When asked about the chances of reaching peace with the Palestinians, Netanyahu said he does not see mutual recognition and agreements over security arrangements happening in the immediate future.

"I don't think the Palestinians will necessarily accept it by themselves, but I think because of the change that is happening in the region, it might be that leading Arab countries might encourage a future Palestinian leadership, or even this one, to accept that kind of deal. And if that happens, I think Israelis would go for it," he said.

The prime minister once again dismissed the issue of settlement expansion as an obstacle for peace, saying "The total amount of built-up land is just a few percent, and the addition, if you look it up over time, has got to be a fraction. Maybe one tenth of one percent, maybe three-tenths of one percent."

He also argued that the governments of Ehud Barak, Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert all built more housing units a year in the settlements than his own governments.

Netanyahu went on to say that the conflict started in 1920, detailing violent attacks that proceeded the 1967 Six-Day War, in which Israel captured the West Bank.

"This was 47 years, from 1920 to 1967. Half a century. What's the root cause of this? Can't be the settlements, it can't be the territories, because there weren't any," he said.

A group of pro-Palestinian protesters picketed outside the building where he spoke, and Netanyahu acknowledged his visit had been "a source of some controversy."

But while the prime minister is in the US, Jerusalem's committee for planning and construction is expected to approve on Wednesday the building of 891 new housing units in the neighborhood of Gilo, which is located beyond the Green Line.

The plan will see the construction of new homes in an empty area between Gilo and the Palestinian village of Beit Jala.

The area is under ownership of several bodies, including the Israel Land Administration and KKL-JNF. In order to issue a building permit, all plots will have to come under one ownership, and then be re-divided.

The plan was submitted and approved in 2013, but the planning was stopped as a result of the unofficial construction freeze in Jerusalem. After the committee approves the re-division of the plots, it will essentially green light the project, allowing it to move forward.

The Jerusalem municipality said in response: "This is not an approval of construction plans, as the plans have been approved two years ago in a district committee. This is a strictly technical process of correcting the internal borders of the plots."

Making good with the Democrats
Netanyahu also met with members of Congress, where he stressed that Israel must be able to defend itself, by itself. This includes threats from any territory Israel relinquishes, including hundreds of miles (kilometers) of borders subject to potential tunneling.

After an hour-long meeting with senators, Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin said Netanyahu planned to meet on Wednesday with Secretary of State Kerry and that the peace effort would be on their agenda.

US-Israel relations were seriously strained by the nuclear deal that the US and its partners signed with Iran, which will receive relief from sanctions in exchange for curtailing its nuclear program.

"We didn't dwell on the Iran nuclear agreement. Talked about it. But didn't dwell on it," said Durbin. "This was an important step back into a bipartisan relationship."

"We have to have more dialogue and more understanding as to the current security challenges facing Israel. ... As important as I believe the Iran nuclear agreement was, it doesn't make Israel a safe nation. It is still in danger," Durbin said.

"He talked about the current threats from Iran and they are substantial."

In the wake of the nuclear agreement, the Obama administration is considering increasing the amount of security assistance to Israel. Annual US aid to Israel currently exceeds $3 billion a year.

Republican Sen. Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said no dollar amount was discussed at the meeting.

He played down any rift Netanyahu has with Congress, saying those senators who voted for the Iran nuclear deal went out of their way at the meeting to explain to Netanyahu that there is bipartisan support for Israel in Congress. According to Corker, Netanyahu said he knew that.

Yael Friedson, Roi Yanovsky, Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

 

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World | Wed Nov 11, 2015 6:43am EST
Related: World, Turkey, Syria, Iraq

Turkey's Erdogan puts Syria, Iraq on G20 leaders' agenda

ANKARA | By Ece Toksabay


Turkey wants world leaders to discuss the conflicts in Syria and Iraq at a G20 summit this weekend and is ready to take "stronger steps" in the region following its general election, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday.

Leaders of the Group of 20 major economies (G20), including the United States, China, Japan, Russia, Canada, Australia and Brazil, are to meet on Sunday and Monday in the Mediterranean resort of Antalya to discuss global economic issues.

But Turkey, a NATO member which has taken in more than 2 million refugees from Syria and Iraq and faces a growing threat of spillover from the conflicts, wants the heads of state to also discuss the unrest there.

"Our inclusion of issues of Iraq and Syria to the G20 agenda is not against the primary objectives of the platform," Erdogan told a business meeting in the capital Ankara.

The ruling AK Party, founded by Erdogan, regained the parliamentary majority it had lost just five months earlier in an election a week and a half ago. He said that meant Turkey could now act with more authority in the region.

"The result of the Nov. 1 election completely removed political uncertainty in Turkey and gave us the opportunity to take stronger steps on regional issues," Erdogan said, without elaborating.

Turkey has been a staunch opponent of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, arguing lasting peace is impossible without his departure. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Tuesday that Turkey would respond by air and land to threats from Syria and that a new strategy was needed.

Russia, which supports Assad, wants the Syrian government and opposition to agree on launching a constitutional reform process of up to 18 months, followed by early presidential elections, a draft document obtained by Reuters showed on Tuesday.

The proposal, drawn up before international talks on Syria in Vienna this week, does not rule out Assad's participation in the election, something Ankara and the Syrian leader's other foes are likely to oppose.

Turkey is also expected to use its presidency of the G20 to try to persuade allies including Washington against giving U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish rebels a greater role in the fight against Islamic State militants.

Turkey, which opened its air bases in July to the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State, sees advances by the Syrian Kurds as a threat to its national security, fearing they could stoke separatism among its own Kurds.

"Anyone ferrying wood to the Syrian fire will find themselves burning. It is a friendly warning," Erdogan said.


(Additional reporting by Melih Aslan in Istanbul; Writing by Jonny Hogg; Editing by Nick Tattersall/Ruth Pitchford)