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US vs China: Is China In Front of the US in Developing Hypersonic Weapons?
Kris Osborn
07/01/2016
The US wants to say in front of China with hypersonic weapons able to travel at five-times the speed of sound and destroy targets with a "kinetic energy" warhead.
The Air Force will likely have high-speed, long-range and deadly hypersonic weapons by the 2020s, providing kinetic energy destructive power able to travel thousands of miles toward enemy targets at five-times the speed of sound.
“Air speed makes them much more survivable and hard to shoot down. If you can put enough fuel in them that gets them a good long range. You are going roughly a mile a second so if you put in 1,000 seconds of fuel you can go 1,000 miles - so that gives you lots of standoff capability,” Air Force Chief Scientist Greg Zacharias told Scout Warrior in an interview. *
While much progress has been made by Air Force and Pentagon scientists thus far, much work needs to be done before hypersonic air vehicles and weapons are technologically ready to be operational in combat circumstances.
“Right now we are focusing on technology maturation so all the bits and pieces, guidance, navigation control, material science, munitions, heat transfer and all that stuff,” Zacharias added.
Zacharias explained that, based upon the current trajectory, the Air Force will likely have some initial hypersonic weapons ready by sometime in the 2020s. A bit further away in the 2030s, the service could have a hypersonic drone or ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) vehicle.
“I don’t yet know if this is envisioned to be survivable or returnable. It may be one way,” Zacharias explained.
A super high-speed drone or ISR platform would better enable air vehicles to rapidly enter and exit enemy territory and send back relevant imagery without being detected by enemy radar or shot down.*
By the 2040s, however, the Air Force could very well have a hypersonic “strike” ISR platform able to both conduct surveillance and delivery weapons, he added.
A weapon traveling at hypersonic speeds, naturally, would better enable offensive missile strikes to destroy targets such and enemy ships, buildings, air defenses and even drones and fixed-wing or rotary aircraft depending upon the guidance technology available.
A key component of this is the fact that weapons traveling at hypersonic speeds would present serious complications for targets hoping to defend against them – they would have only seconds with which to respond or defend against an approaching or incoming attack.
Hypersonic weapons will quite likely be engineered as “kinetic energy” strike weapons, meaning they will not use explosives but rather rely upon sheer speed and the force of impact to destroy targets.
“They have great kinetic energy to get through hardened targets. You could trade off smaller munitions loads for higher kinetic energy. It is really basically the speed and the range. Mach 5 is five times the speed of sound,” he explained.
The speed of sound can vary, depending upon the altitude; at the ground level it is roughly 1,100 feet per second. Accordingly, if a weapon is engineered with 2,000 seconds worth of fuel – it can travel up to 2,000 miles to a target.
“If you can get control at a low level and hold onto Mach 5, you can do pretty long ranges,” Zacharias said.
Although potential defensive uses for hypersonic weapons, interceptors or vehicles are by no means beyond the realm of consideration, the principle effort at the moment is to engineer offensive weapons able to quickly destroy enemy targets at great distances.
Some hypersonic vehicles could be developed with what Zacharias called “boost glide” technology, meaning they fire up into the sky above the earth’s atmosphere and then utilize the speed of decent to strike targets as a re-entry vehicle.
For instance, Zacharias cited the 1950s-era experimental boost-glide vehicle called the X-15 which aimed to fire 67-miles up into the sky before returning to earth.
China’s Hypersonic Weapons Tests
Zacharias did respond to recent news about China’s claimed test of a hypersonic weapon, a development which caused concern among Pentagon leaders and threat analysts.
While some Pentagon officials have said the Chinese have made progress with effort to develop hypersonic weapons, Zacharias emphasized that much of the details regarding this effort were classified and therefore not publically available.
Nevertheless, should China possess long-range, high-speed hypersonic weapons – it could dramatically impact circumstances known in Pentagon circles and anti-access/area denial.
This phenomenon, referred to at A2/AD, involves instances wherein potential adversaries use long-range sensors and precision weaponry to deny the U.S. any ability to operate in the vicinity of some strategically significant areas such as closer to an enemy coastline. Hypersonic weapons could hold slower-moving Navy aircraft carriers at much greater risk, for example.
An April 27th report in the Washington Free Beach citing Pentagon officials stating that China successfully tested a new high-speed maneuvering warhead.
“The test of the developmental DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle was monitored after launch Friday atop a ballistic missile fired from the Wuzhai missile launch center in central China, said officials familiar with reports of the test,” the report from the Washington Free Beacon said. “The maneuvering glider, traveling at several thousand miles per*hour, was tracked by satellites as it flew west along the edge of the atmosphere to an impact area in the western part of the country.”
X-51 Waverider
Scientists with the Air Force Research Laboratory and the Pentagon's research arm are working to build a new hypersonic air vehicle that can travel at speeds up to Mach 5 while carrying guidance systems and other materials.
Air Force senior officials have said the service wants to build upon the successful hypersonic flight test of the*X-51*Waverider 60,000 feet above the Pacific Ocean in May of 2013.
The Air Force and DARPA, the Pentagon's research entity, plan to have a new and improved hypersonic air vehicle*by 2023.
The X-51*was really a proof of concept test designed to demonstrate that a scram jet engine could launch off an aircraft and go hypersonic.
The scramjet was able to go more than Mach 5 until it ran out of fuel. It was a very successful test of an airborne hypersonic weapons system, Air Force officials said.
The successful test was particularly welcome news for Air Force developers because the X-51 Waverider had previously had some failed tests.
The 2013 test flight, which wound up being the longest air-breathing hypersonic flight ever, wrapped up a $300 million technology demonstration program beginning in 2004, Air Force officials said.
A B-52H Stratofortress carried the*X-51A on its wing before it was released at 50,000 feet and accelerated up to Mach 4.8 in 26 seconds. As the scramjet climbed to 60,000 feet it accelerated to Mach 5.1.
The*X-51*was also able to send back data before crashing into the ocean -- the kind of information now being used by scientists to engineer a more complete hypersonic vehicle.
"After exhausting its 240-second fuel supply, the vehicle continued to send back telemetry data until it splashed down into the ocean and was destroyed as designed," according to an Air Force statement. "At impact, 370 seconds of data were collected from the experiment."
This Air Force the next-generation effort is not merely aimed at creating another scramjet but rather engineering a much more comprehensive hypersonic air vehicle, service scientists have explained.
Hypersonic flight requires technology designed to enable materials that can operate at the very high temperatures created by hypersonic speeds. They need guidance systems able to function as those speeds as well, Air Force officials have said.
The new air vehicle effort will progress alongside an Air Force hypersonic weapons program. While today's cruise missiles travel at speeds up to 600 miles per hour, hypersonic weapons will be able to reach speeds of Mach 5 to Mach 10, Air Force officials said.
The new air vehicle could be used to transport sensors, equipment or weaponry in the future, depending upon how the technology develops.
Also, Pentagon officials have said that hypersonic aircraft are expected to be much less expensive than traditional turbine engines because they require fewer parts.
For example, senior Air Force officials have said that hypersonic flight could speed up a five- hour flight from New York to Los Angeles to about 30 minutes. That being said, the speed of acceleration required for hypersonic flight may preclude or at least challenge the scientific possibility of humans being able to travel at that speed – a question that has yet to be fully determined.
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https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/private-sector/future-hypersonic-weapons-1091
The Future of Hypersonic Weapons
October 20, 2016 | Daniel M. Norton
Daniel M. Norton
Senior Management Systems Analyst, RAND Corporation
Over the next few years, the Defense Advanced Research Projects*Agency*(DARPA) plans to demonstrate two air-launched hypersonic weapons (HSW) concepts; the*Turbo Boost Glide*and the*Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapons*Concept. These systems, though not weapons themselves, should generate a great deal of information on the operating conditions for weapon-sized air vehicles in hypersonic flight (Mach 5 to 10) at high altitudes, and, along with other government-funded research efforts, could pave the way for a weapons program in the next decade.
Other countries are also developing HSWs. Russia is developing the*Zircon, a ship-launched hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) reportedly derived in part from the*Brahmos, a supersonic ASCM developed by Russia and India. It is also developing a ballistic missile-launched system with a hypersonic glide vehicle.
Russia*and China are developing ballistic missile launched HSWs. Russia recently launched a hypersonic glide vehicle on an SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missile.*China has tested the DF-ZF*(formerly the WU-14), a hypersonic glide vehicle that could be launched by ballistic missiles of various sizes, seven times since 2014.
The development of conventional hypersonic weapons offers opportunities and challenges for U.S. defense planners, particularly in potential major conflicts with adversaries possessing advanced air defenses. The introduction of air-launched HSWs could allow aircraft to target short-dwell mobile targets, such as surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and ballistic and cruise missile launchers, from standoff range in ways that are ineffective with subsonic weapons due to their long time of flight. HSWs could also put at risk well-defended targets that are difficult to hit with subsonic weapons. The very high speed, high altitude flight profile, and maneuverability of HSWs could reduce threat engagement opportunities, increasing weapon survivability and effectiveness. Procuring HSWs could also force potential adversaries to develop new air defense systems or re-allocate existing ones to address this threat, possibly increasing the effectiveness of other air assets. Of course, other solutions are possible. Supersonic (Mach 1 to Mach 5) weapons could also be effective in attacking these targets and would also need to be considered.
The case for ballistic missile-launched HSWs, particularly those launched from the U.S. with intercontinental range, is less clear. Procuring such a system would provide a means of attacking targets throughout the world within 30 minutes from U.S. territory. However, such a launch could be misinterpreted as a nuclear-armed ICBM launch and thus could have substantial escalation risks. Further, ISR systems are likely to be needed in the theater to find many targets of interest. If ISR systems are available, strike aircraft could be as well. Strike aircraft could offer a less expensive, more tailorable, and more robust way of striking the target. Thus, while these weapons may have some utility, it is not clear they are cost-effective or outweigh their risks.
Even air-launched HSWs have important limitations. Achieving very high speeds and altitudes requires a great deal of energy and advanced materials. As a result, HSWs are likely to be much larger, heavier, and more expensive than subsonic weapons of similar payload and range. As such, they will never be competitive with current systems in attacking targets that both can effectively reach.
Although at this point a U.S. decision to procure HSWs would be premature, flight demonstrations and technology maturation efforts could pave the way for the development of a new weapon system.
Regardless of whether the U.S. procures HSWs, it may be compelled to develop ways to defend against them. Defeating the Zircon system could require attacks on multiple steps in the adversary effects chain. This could include destroying or dazzling Russian intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems to prevent them from finding Navy ships; jamming communications links between ISR systems and HSW-equipped surface ships; and attacking those ships. Efforts to deceive or blind the missile seeker and destroy the missile itself may also be necessary. The Navy has employed systems designed to defeat supersonic anti-ship missiles for decades. These kinds of systems would have to be extended to address the threat posed by Zircon.
The introduction of Russian and Chinese ballistic-missile launched HSWs could present a much broader set of challenges, since they could conceivably be used against multiple surface targets. Chinese HSWs will be more expensive than comparable subsonic cruise missiles and thus may be reserved for high-value, well-defended targets, such as ships and critical infrastructure.
Addressing this threat could also require attacks on multiple stages of the adversary’s effects chain. The fact that these weapons could be launched from mobile ground systems, which have proven very difficult to find and attack in previous conflicts, only adds to the challenge. Upgrades to air defense systems, such as theater air and missile defense systems, may also be needed.
It may not be possible to intercept every missile. The attacker chooses the timing and number of missiles used to attack each target. The defender must allocate defenses prior to the attack and thus those defenses may be overwhelmed in specific locations. Mitigation steps, such as hardening some critical facilities and building backups for others, could make operations more robust in the face of attacks.
Although the United States, Russia, and China are all developing hypersonic systems, and Russia and China appear to be developing hypersonic weapons, it would be a mistake to view this as an arms race. The United States should make decisions on whether to develop and procure HSWs based on their potential contributions in future conflicts, regardless of the course of action taken by others. Similarly, defense planners will have to address the threat posed by Russian and Chinese HSWs if those systems become operational, independent of whether the United States decides to procure its own HSWs.
Hypersonic Weapons
United States
Russia
China
missile defense
The Author is Daniel M. Norton
Daniel Norton is a senior management systems analyst with 27 years of experience in analyzing mobility, modernization, and strategic planning issues for the U.S. Army and Air Force. He began his career analyzing the performance of next-generation armored and mechanized vehicles using high-resolution ground-combat simulations. He then shifted his focus to improving the strategic mobility of Army units. He later analyzed force sizing and airfield suitability issues in the Next-Generation Gunship...
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http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/spaceplanes-high-frontier/
Spaceplanes on the high frontier
19 Oct 2016|Malcolm Davis
A transformation in military space capabilities is occurring hundreds of kilometres above the Earth’s surface as the US Air Force X-37B Space Plane logs over 500 days in orbit in its latest mission. The unmanned X-37B Space Plane is designed for long-endurance missions that are highly classified. It’s officially referred to as the ‘Orbital Test Vehicle’, and is described as a platform for testing ‘reusable spacecraft technologies for America’s future in space and operating experiments which can be returned to, and examined, on Earth.’ A total of four missions have been flown since April 2010, with the fourth in progress since 20th May 2015. It’s designed to be launched on an expendable Atlas V booster, and there are currently two operational X-37Bs in the USAF’s inventory.
The current mission is testing a new type of ion-engine called a ‘Hall-effect thruster’. It was the Hall thrusters on the first USAF Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) satellite that saved the satellite when a rocket motor failed to raise it to the correct orbit. Hall thrusters provide higher thrust than traditional ion propulsion, with sustained thrust allowing a spacecraft to reach about 50km per second—much faster than even NASA’s Voyager 1 space probe now travelling out of the solar system at mere 17km per second. For satellites they provide a much more cost effective way of remaining in the right location within an orbit.
The laws of orbital dynamics and the fact that rockets use fuel at an alarming rate means satellites and spacecraft are not manoeuvrable like fighter aircraft within Earth’s atmosphere. Minimising fuel use also demands the use of Hohmann transfer trajectories to move between orbits, reducing their orbital agility even further. Rocket engines and the need to carry large amounts of fuel adds mass and complexity to spacecraft design, blowing out cost and extending development time. Once the rocket fuel is used up, the spacecraft or satellite is useless.
The X-37B potentially changes this situation, as not only can the spacecraft be recovered and reused, but it uses a small amount of Xenon gas that is far lighter than traditional rocket fuel like hydrazine, though it has a high storage density to allow greater useful fuel. Manoeuvring with Hall thrusters is slow compared to rockets (even though prolonged acceleration over time produces much higher velocities), but far more cost effective in terms of fuel. So the X-37B can stay up longer, manoeuvre at far lower cost in terms of fuel than a similar vehicle with traditional rockets, and enjoy a greater ability to manoeuvre within and between orbits. This flexibility would allow it to do more in space, including close surveillance of an adversary’s satellites in orbit, both in terms of optical imaging, and electronic intelligence and signals intelligence gathering. It can also fill a gap if satellites are badly positioned to respond to short notice events like a nuclear test in North Korea. The X-37B suggests a new generation of space capabilities beyond traditional satellites.
The Obama administration’s space policy eschews the weapons in space option. It instead emphasises efforts towards ensuring space resilience and Space Situational Awareness (SSA) as a key aspects of space policy to deter adversary counter-space threats like anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. Reconstitution of space capabilities after an adversary ASAT attack is also an essential aspect of space resilience, and DARPA is developing a vehicle similar to the X-37B, the XS-1 Spaceplane, which is designed to launch payloads at low cost in a responsive manner. Matching this responsive space launch capability with low-cost Cubesats means the US can rapidly replace lost capability after an attack. Furthermore an ability to temporarily operate in a degraded space environment may also mitigate the effects of losing access to space capabilities. Yet the X-37B would give the next Administration an option to quickly develop a very advanced ASAT capability if it were needed. That’s going to be an important issue for the next occupant of the White House to consider, given that both Russia and China are continuing to ignore US efforts to prevent the weaponisation of space, and are developing a broad range of ASAT capabilities that will allow them to threaten the vital satellites depended upon bythe US and its allies. SSA only permits the monitoring of space activities, and real space resilience may need to include defending critical high-end satellites such as missile early warning, GPS or strategic communications satellites. An expanded X-37B capability may be an answer to defending these vital assets through providing close-in escorting capabilities that can respond to an approaching threat before it can close within range of its target. For the US to take a step towards the weaponisation of space is a policy dilemma for Washington and has implications on space security, both of which will considered in a subsequent article.
Author
Malcolm Davis is a senior analyst at ASPI.*Image courtesy of Flickr user US Air Force.
