WAR 10-01-2016-to-10-07-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
(235) 09-10-2016-to-09-16-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...16-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(236) 09-17-2016-to-09-23-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...23-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(237) 09-24-2016-to-09-30-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...30-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-usa-china-idUSKCN1212XH

World News | Sat Oct 1, 2016 | 4:39am EDT

China paper says U.S., South Korea will 'pay the price' for planned missile system

The United States and South Korea are destined to "pay the price" for their decision to deploy an advanced missile defense system which will inevitably prompt a "counter attack", China's top newspaper said on Saturday.

Tension on the Korean peninsula has been high this year, beginning with North Korea's fourth nuclear test in January, which was followed by a satellite launch, a string of tests of various missiles, and its fifth and largest nuclear test last month.

In July, South Korea agreed with the United States to deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system to protect against any North Korean threats.

South Korea aims to deploy the system on a golf course, a defense ministry official said on Friday.

But the plan has angered China, which worries that THAAD's powerful radar would compromise its security and do nothing to lower temperatures on the Korean peninsula.

In a commentary, the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily said China's opposition to THAAD would never change as it was a serious threat to the regional strategic security balance.

"Like any other country, China can neither be vague nor indifferent on security matters that affect its core interests," the newspaper said in the commentary, published under the pen name "Zhong Sheng", meaning "Voice of China", often used to give views on foreign policy.

The United States and South Korea have to wake up to the fact that the Korean peninsula is no place to take risks, it added.

"If the United States and South Korea harm the strategic security interests of countries in the region including China, then they are destined to pay the price for this and receive a proper counter attack," the paper added, without elaborating.

NO DETAILS YET
China has repeatedly promised to take specific steps to respond since the THAAD decision was announced, but has given no details about what it may do.

The United States and South Korea have said THAAD does not threaten China's security or target any country other than North Korea.

China is North Korea's most important diplomatic and economic partner, but Beijing has been infuriated by its nuclear and missile tests and has signed up for strong United Nations sanctions against North Korea.

However, China has continued to call for talks to resolve the North Korean issue and said sanctions are not the ultimate solution.

At a reception in Pyongyang on Friday for China's National Day, Chinese Ambassador Li Jinjun said his country wanted to consolidate its friendship with North Korea, China's Xinhua news agency said on Saturday.

The report made no mention of the nuclear issue.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

Also In World News
Russia said to send more warplanes to Syria, diplomacy 'on life support'
Philippines' Duterte likens himself to Hitler, wants to kill millions of drug users
 

Housecarl

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37515551

US invests $50m in Niger drone base for counterterrorism

30 September 2016
From the section
Africa

The US is investing at least $50m in a military air base in Niger that will be capable of deploying drones.

The US already has a presence in the capital Niamey, where it shares an airbase with France's anti-Islamist force, Operation Barkhane.

MQ-9 Reaper drones are stationed there.

But the new facility, in the central city of Agadez, will give Washington greater ability to use drones against Islamist extremists in neighbouring countries like Libya, Mali and Nigeria.

Niger battles terror threats on all fronts
What are drones?

A spokeswoman for the Pentagon, Michelle Baldanza, confirmed the US had agreed to pay for a new runway and "associated pavements, facilities and infrastructure".

She estimated the cost at $50m but The Intercept, which first reported the story, said it is projected to cost twice that.

The investigative news site reports that it has obtained files that show the project is considered "the most important US military construction effort in Africa" and will be completed in 2017.

Drones, also known as UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) or RPAs (Remotely Piloted Aircraft) are used by the military for surveillance and to drop bombs, in places where it is too risky or difficult to send a pilot.

_91453874_niger_niamey_agadez.jpg

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/BADB/production/_91453874_niger_niamey_agadez.jpg


More on this story
Niger battles terrorism threats on all fronts
30 May 2016
Niger country profile
23 March 2016
Drones: What are they and how do they work?
31 January 2012
France sets up anti-Islamist force in Africa's Sahel
14 July 2014
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN1201WN

World News | Sat Oct 1, 2016 | 5:18am EDT

Russia said to send more warplanes to Syria, diplomacy 'on life support'

By Dmitry Solovyov and Ellen Francis | MOSCOW/BEIRUT

Russia is sending more warplanes to Syria to ramp up its air campaign, a Russian newspaper reported on Friday, as the United States said diplomacy to halt the violence was "on life support" but not dead yet.

Fighting continued to intensify a week into a new Russian-backed Syrian government offensive to capture rebel-held eastern Aleppo and crush the last urban stronghold of a revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that began in 2011.

Moscow and Assad spurned a U.S.-Russian brokered ceasefire agreed to this month and launched attacks on rebel-held areas in Aleppo in potentially the most decisive battle in the Syrian civil war.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke by telephone for a third straight day, with the top Russian diplomat saying Moscow was ready to consider more ways to normalize the situation in Aleppo.

But Lavrov criticized Washington's failure to separate moderate rebel groups from those the Russians call terrorists, which had allowed forces led by the group formerly known as the Nusra front to violate the U.S.-Russian truce agreed on Sept. 9.

The United States made clear on Friday that it would not, at least for now, carry through on the threat it made on Wednesday to halt the diplomacy if Russia did not take immediate steps to halt the violence.

"This is on life support, but it's not flat-lined yet," State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters. "We have seen enough that we don't want to definitively close the door yet."

In a 40-minute discussion with Syrians, diplomats and others on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York last week, Kerry said the administration had failed to make any threat of military force that give him leverage with Russia.

"I think you're looking at three people, four people in the administration who have all argued for use of force, and I lost the argument," Kerry told the group, according to a recording of the session obtained by The New York Times.

NO ALTERNATIVE TO DIPLOMACY?

U.S. officials and analysts argued the White House has few alternatives. "If we do walk away from this diplomatic process, as ... moribund as it is, what are the options?" Toner asked.

"They can't afford to," said Chas Freeman, a retired U.S. ambassador. "You can't do international business with silence and ostracism."

The White House put on hold for now proposals to end the talks despite the possibility that continuing them would erase whatever credibility Washington has on Syria, risk encouraging Assad and his Russian backers to continue the carnage, and prompt Saudi Arabia and other Assad opponents to arm rebel groups with better weapons without consulting Washington.

It also would leave the United States vulnerable to attacks that it failed to intervene to halt war crimes, proponents of ending the diplomacy argued, according to officials familiar with the internal discussions.

According to the tape, however, Kerry told the Syria group last week that as the bombing of Aleppo had escalated, "There's a different conversation taking place."CIA director John Brennan said in an interview on Friday that Russia's actions in Syria over the last several weeks have shown that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been serious about negotiating a political solution to the conflict.

"I think that pushing back against a bully is appropriate," Brennan told Reuters. "I think that is very different than rushing in and bombing the hell out of a place."

Military options that administration officials say are still being discussed include providing more sophisticated arms, logistical support, and training to Syrian rebel groups, though not shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, either directly or via Gulf Arab states or Turkey, these officials said.

Another idea, they said, was first to attempt humanitarian relief flights over Aleppo or other embattled areas, escorted by fighter jets, to see how the Russians and Syrians respond. Further down the list would be launching an air or cruise missile strike on a Syrian base, with a tentative list already drawn up of what one official said was "slightly more than a dozen" Syrian airbases, barrel-bomb factories and other targets.

However, senior officials concluded there is no alternative to leaving the door open to talks for now because any immediate action would risk provoking an open conflict with Russia.

According to the tape of his meeting with the Syrian group in New York, Kerry warned that if the U.S. started using muscle, "then everybody ups the ante, right? Russia puts in more, Iran puts in more; Hezbollah is there more and Nusra is more; and Saudi Arabia and Turkey put all their surrogate money in, and you all are destroyed."

SU-24 AND SU-34 AIRCRAFT

Western countries accuse Russia of war crimes, saying it has targeted civilians, hospitals and aid deliveries in recent days to crush the will of 250,000 people trapped inside the besieged rebel-held sector of Aleppo, Syria's biggest city before the war.

Moscow and Damascus say they have targeted only militants.

Russia joined the war a year ago, tipping the balance of power in favor of Assad, who is also supported by Iranian ground forces and Shi'ite militia from Lebanon and Iraq.

The Kremlin said on Friday there was no time frame for its military operation in Syria. The main result of Russian air strikes over the past year is that "neither Islamic State, nor al Qaeda nor the Nusra Front are now sitting in Damascus", Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Russia's Izvestia newspaper reported that a group of Su-24 and Su-34 warplanes had arrived at Syria's Hmeymim base.

The Su-25 is an armored twin-engine jet that was battle-tested in the 1980s during the Soviet war in Afghanistan. It can be used to strafe targets on the ground, or as a bomber.

Russia's defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request from Reuters for comment. The U.S. State and Defense Departments declined comment on the Izvestia report.

Syrian government forces and rebels fought battles on Friday in the city center and north of Aleppo, where government troops had recaptured a Palestinian refugee camp on Thursday that already had changed hands once since the start of the attack.

The sides gave conflicting accounts of the outcome of Friday's fighting. North of the city, the military said it had captured territory around the Kindi hospital near the refugee camp. Rebel sources denied the army had advanced there.

(Additional reporting by Tom Perry, Angus McDowall, Lisa Barrington in Beirut; David Alexander, Eric Beech, Arshad Mohammed, David Rohde and John Walcott in Washington, Dmitry Solovyov in Moscow; writing by Peter Graff and Arshad Mohammed; editing by Peter Millership and Tom Brown)

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Kerry said he lost argument to back Syria diplomacy with force: NYT
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EU's anti-fraud body probes aid for Syrian refugees
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Conflict News ‏@Conflicts 13m13 minutes ago

BREAKING: Reports that Houthis have damaged/sunk a UAE navy vessel off the coast of Yemen


Conflict News ‏@Conflicts 7m7 minutes ago

VIDEO: Footage claims to show the moment Houthis struck a UAE navy vessel with a missile.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSW8N-LCsSM



 

Housecarl

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I'm posting this here due to the potential and degree to which this could go real hot....

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http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/angry-brazilian-voters-upend-political-order-42495131

Angry Brazilian Voters Looking to Upend Political Order

By MAURICIO SAVARESE, ASSOCIATED PRESS SAO PAULO — Oct 1, 2016, 11:10 AM ET

In Brazil's biggest city of Sao Paulo, the leading mayoral candidate is a businessman who once fired people on air during a television reality show. In the country's crown jewel city of Rio de Janeiro, the front-runner is an evangelical pastor. And in Belo Horizonte, a former pro soccer player is leading the pack.

For the first time since a bruising impeachment fight led to the ouster of President Dilma Rousseff, Brazilians will get to vote on Sunday as municipal elections take place in more than 5,500 cities. If polls are any indication, voters are in a kick-the-bums-out mood, preferring novices to established politicians amid a deep recession and anger about a colossal corruption scheme that has led to the jailing of several top politicians.

"I don't want any of these traditional politicians. Not the current mayor, the ex-mayor, anyone who has governed before," said Maria Fernandes, a hairdresser in Sao Paulo who plans to vote for Joao Doria, an ex-host of "The Apprentice Brazil" who uses the slogan "I am not a politician, I am a businessman."

Outsiders like Doria seem to be on the upswing in Latin America's largest country, where major parties had long kept tight control on which candidates get put forward.

In the 26 state capitals where mayoral seats are at stake, only five incumbents are polling above the 50 percent necessary to avoid a runoff, according to polls aggregated by online news site UOL. Many candidates are going out of their way to present themselves as outsiders uncorrupted by the business-as-usual way of doing things that led to arguably the country's biggest political crisis since President Fernando Collor was impeached in 1992.

In August, Rousseff was removed by the Senate for illegally shifting funds between federal budgets. The ouster was the culmination of a nearly yearlong fight that paralyzed Latin America's largest economy, already mired in its worst recession in decades.

Rousseff denied wrongdoing, arguing that an elite class, furious over the social welfare policies of her Workers' Party, was pulling off a modern-day coup d'etat. The battle came against the background of revelations of a massive kickback scheme at state oil company Petrobras.

Fabio Wanderley Reis, a political science professor at Minas Gerais Federal University, said candidates who reject traditional politics are mirroring an overwhelming feeling among Brazilians.

"Politics are being criminalized in part by the politicians themselves," said Reis. He said that if outsiders triumph in the mayoral elections, "it could be a trend for the presidential elections in 2018."

One of the biggest upsets could be in Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city, the country's economic engine and traditionally a bellwether for the national stage. Even a year ago, incumbent Fernando Haddad of the Workers' Party was talked about as a leading contender for the presidency in 2018. Now Haddad is struggling just to qualify for a runoff.

Polls show a clear lead for Doria, a communications mogul who hosted a Brazilian version of Donald Trump's show "The Apprentice" and has owned magazines such as "Caviar Lifestyle."

Haddad is tangled in a three-way battle for second with TV consumer advocate Celso Russomano and former Mayor Marta Suplicy.

In Rio, the front-runner is Sen. Marcelo Crivella, an evangelical pastor known for religious songs on YouTube with titles like "Jesus Cures" and "I'm Israel." Crivella has run and lost in previous mayoral and gubernatorial elections.

In Belo Horizonte, Brazil's sixth biggest city, former Atletico Mineiro goalkeeper Joao Leite is in a tight race with former Atletico Mineiro chairman Alexandre Kalil, whose slogan is even more anti-establishment than Doria's: "Enough of politicians. Vote for Kalil."

To be sure, career politicians are fighting back, arguing that governing takes a lot more than slick speeches and promises to upend the establishment.

"This could lead to an even bigger adventure that Brazil cannot afford," Haddad warned, adding that the way his opponents were presenting themselves was "no more than a trick."

Fernandes, the hairdresser, said such warnings are meaningless because they come from a corrupted political class.

"At least I know that (Doria) is going to dismantle the corruption schemes and he is already rich, which means he won't steal anything," she said, then added, "I mean, I think he won't."
 

Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....
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http://www.realcleardefense.com/art..._gamble_america_and_world_order___110154.html

Weekly Recon - Third Offset Gamble, America and World Order. . .
By David Craig
October 01, 2016

Good Saturday morning and welcome to Weekly Recon. On this day in 1942, the Bell P-59 Airacomet fighter, the 1st U.S. jet, made its maiden flight. Also on this day in 1961, the United States Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is formed, becoming the country’s first centralized military espionage organization.

Continuing Resolution – to Destroy the Military – Dating back to the Budget Control Act of 2010, which triggered Sequestration in 2013, political brinksmanship intending to bring the Federal Budget under control, had severe and unintended consequences. The impacts on the military’s defense budget have created significant setbacks, not only in readiness but have nearly crippled military modernization efforts. Efforts by congress to overcome this burden have relented to the use of continuing resolutions (CR), which tends to amplify rather than solve this problem. Some have even argued that the impacts have made the world a more dangerous place.


The shuffling of money to accommodate the continuing resolutions, 11 in the last 16 years, have cost billions of dollars and setback programs for all the services. The Air Force’s planned B-21 could end up costing far more than previous estimates, while programs like the Army’s already plagues aviation readiness. The Navy, meanwhile, estimated that the 2015 CR would cost upwards of $6 Billion for shipbuilding and acquisition. These 16 years of CR have had dire impacts on military modernization, acquisition, and simply the ability to function as Robert Work said in 2015, “there is no organization on this earth that would be able to remain in business, operating under these conditions.”

While Ash Carter and military leaders strive to innovate and sustain the “world’s strongest military,” the rest of the world is catching up, fast.

The Third Offset Gamble – The Quest for Disruptive Military Technology – Building upon Chuck Hagel’s 2014 military innovation initiative, Ash Carter has made innovation a hallmark of his tenure as head of the Defense Department. Shifting authorities and monies around in the defense department, Carter is banking on America’s ability to innovate faster than near-peer competitors such as Russia and China. The question arises will this investment pay off?

The predominant challenge currently for the military is the threat of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), which is a primary focus of Russia and China in countering the imposing American threat. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments’ (CSBA) analysis of the Third Offset Strategy lists A2/AD as one of the greatest strategic and technological challenges facing the United States. Additionally, the ability to operate in a cyber challenged battlespace and the growing competition in space adds to an already complex list of technological challenges.

The list of challenges facing the U.S. military is becoming rather daunting in the face of growing near-peer competition. The recommendations and solutions are nearly as complex, so the question will be whether or not the focus on innovation will be capable of addressing the increasing challenges posed by Russia and China. The CSBA offers some excellent insight into the problems and possible solutions, but will the Third Offset deliver and will it survive the next administration?

To Lead or Not to Lead – The subject of Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s new book, “The Will to Lead” suggests that America has lost the will to lead as the World’s lone superpower. RealClearBooks Editor John Waters poignantly recognizes that “Mr. Rasmussen argues that global security is stronger, universal human rights more respected and the light of liberty more radiant when America fulfills its duty to police the world.” Without the American will to act as the “global policeman,” the world order as we know it is at stake.

What is at stake and what is “international order” in the modern era? To find out more, read John Waters interview with Mr. Rasmussen here.

SEND RCD YOUR INPUT: Please send your tips, suggestions and feedback to editors@realcleardefense.com. Make sure to follow us on Twitter at @RCDefense
Related Topics: The Will To Lead, World Order, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, John Waters, National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), NDAA, Defense Budget, Continuing Resolution, Third Offset Strategy
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Housecarl

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http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/enabling-unconventional-warfare-to-address-grey-zone-conflicts

Enabling Unconventional Warfare to Address Grey Zone Conflicts

Jennifer A. Obernier and Frank N. Sanders
Journal Article | September 28, 2016 - 12:14am

Abstract

The United States currently finds itself in several grey zone conflicts - political, economic, informational, or military conflicts where normal diplomacy has proven insufficient, but the conflict occurs short of a conventional war. In these situations, Unconventional Warfare (UW) has rarely been a first - or second or third - choice among options to influence a foreign power and achieve U.S. foreign policy and national security goals. However, UW provides the U.S. with the capability to deal with a foreign adversary without having to own the foreign terrain and the associated entanglements after the conflict is over.

UW is conducted by the Department of Defense primarily with Special Operations Forces (SOF) to enable a resistance movement or insurgency to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power. UW looks a lot like covert action in the eyes of our legislators, but without the oversight processes that provide a balance between executive independence and congressional oversight. Without clear roles for the executive and legislative branches, there is inherent unease within both branches to use UW to achieve U.S. foreign policy goals. At best, the executive branch views UW as an ill-defined military mission encumbered by significant legislative concerns. At worst, legislators see UW as the next embarrassing military flap waiting to happen because of a lack of oversight. Even when the Defense Department is able to overcome these concerns, there is no clear and timely legislative path for gaining authorization and funding for UW missions.

Introduction

In this paper, we explore how the similarities between covert action and UW activities have led to a negative perception of UW and lengthy delays in its use. We then offer three actions to overcome these perceptions and enable the use of UW as a timely foreign policy option: creating a statutory definition of UW; proactively establishing congressional oversight and reporting mechanisms; and creating a specific legislative mechanism for acquiring authorization and appropriations.

The Root of Congressional Unease with UW

Covert action was defined in statue in 1991 as activities of the United States government to influence political, economic, or military conditions abroad, where it is intended that the role of the U.S. government will not be apparent or acknowledged publicly.[3] On the surface, UW does not seem very different – both covert action and UW are intended to influence a foreign power – especially when both are most often conducted through clandestine means. However, Congress explicitly excluded military activities such as UW from the statutory definition of covert action, noting that a military activity that supports an overall military operation that is apparent or will be publicly acknowledged is not covert action, even if the military activity itself will not be acknowledged.[4],[5],[6] Congress deliberately excluded activities such as UW from the statutory definition of covert action, but more than 25 years later, confusion remains. Though ‘deniable’ covert actions and ‘unacknowledged military operations’ are legally distinct activities, there is often little difference in the practical execution and inherent political risk of covert action and UW.

Adding to legislative confusion over UW, the only law that currently cites UW is 10 U.S.C. § 167(g), which grants U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) authority to “train, man, and equip” for specific activities, including UW. However, 10 U.S.C. § 167 is not an operational authority to conduct UW, it does not define the activities that comprise UW, nor identify oversight and reporting mechanisms.

The lack of statutory definition causes an information disadvantage for Congressional overseers.[7] In fact, Congress often has to ask those that they are supposed to oversee ‘what is unconventional warfare?’ To add to the confusion, the Defense Department and Army Special Forces have never settled on a consistent definition and have redefined UW three times in the last eight years.[8],[9],[10]

In contrast to UW, covert action is tightly regulated by both the executive and legislative branches through explicit oversight requirements defined in law, to include the need for a presidential finding, notification of Congress, and oversight of the activities by the Intelligence Committees through regular reporting requirements.[11] There are no similar processes to govern UW in statute or Defense Department policy, creating the perception that UW is not well regulated.

Further, UW and covert action both use clandestine means or ‘tradecraft’ to conceal their activities. This similarity has led the Intelligence Committees to believe that they should oversee UW activities as well as covert action, since both use tradecraft and share the political risks inherent in clandestine activities. UW by default is overseen by the Armed Services Committees, with no clear articulation in statute of a role, if any, for the Intelligence Committees. As a result, there is the perception among the Intelligence Committees that SOF are skirting Congressional oversight by categorizing UW as a “traditional military activity” not subject to Intelligence Committee oversight.[12]

Congress’ unease with UW has had direct consequences on the timely use of this foreign policy option. In a May 2014 speech at West Point, President Obama called for a broadening of our tools to address crises where direct, unilateral U.S. military action is untenable.[13] In particular, the President called out the crisis in Syria, signaling an administration decision to support Syria’s moderate opposition by providing training and equipment through SOF – a classic example of a UW mission. This mission was eventually authorized and funded by the close of 2014, but only after more than a year of debate after it was initially proposed by the Defense Department in fall 2013.[14]

While news reports indicate the Obama administration was concerned about pursuing the training and equipping of the Syrian moderate opposition before all chemical weapons in Syria were secured, there are also reports the Pentagon was reticent to pursue this option as it was perceived to be an ill-defined commitment.[15] In hindsight, it’s possible that a clear statutory definition and Congressional oversight mechanisms might have accelerated the debate within the Defense Department, Obama administration, and Congress that lasted more than a year, and provided U.S. SOF additional time to build capability within the Syrian moderate opposition.

The Way Forward

The first step in building a level of comfort with UW is defining it in statute. This would provide a structure for building mutual understanding of the capability and necessary trust between the executive branch, military and Congress. A statutory definition of UW affords Congress an ex ante control on the development of UW capabilities. Currently, the Defense Department lacks clear left and right boundaries on the missions they might be asked to undertake under the umbrella of UW and appropriators have no way to evaluate the capabilities the Defense Department is developing to support a UW mission. Defining UW in law would also force a public debate necessary for democratic transparency. Similar debates surrounded covert action in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and as was noted by W. Michael Reisman[16] and expounded upon by James Baker in Regulating Covert Action, “The urgent policy question is which emerging legal and administrative arrangements best equip the United States for its world role while preserving its democratic values.”[17]

A statutory definition would also prevent the U.S. military from continuously evolving the definition of UW. The shifting military definitions have reinforced the perception that the military changes the definition in order to expand its activities under the guise of “traditional military activities” and avoid Intelligence Committee oversight.

There are counterarguments to defining UW in law. The primary one is that such a definition would become restrictive and would limit the President’s executive authority and the Defense Department’s flexibility and agility to address evolving threats and adversaries. Similar arguments were raised regarding the definition of covert action in the 1991 Intelligence Authorization Act.[18] The subsequent twenty plus years of covert actions suggest executive freedom of action has not been overly constrained by a statutory definition. James Baker further noted that the law “pertaining to covert action permits and prohibits, most of all it regulates its use by creating substantive thresholds triggering statutory and executive processes for authorizing and then appraising covert activities. These processes are intended to ensure that the means to effect covert actions are lawful, but also that the policy choices are sound and effective (emphasis added).”[19] Whether UW is ultimately defined in law or not, the debate surrounding its inclusion in U.S. code would advance the discussion about all options available our U.S. foreign policy decision-makers.

The second step in enabling UW is establishing clear Congressional oversight mechanisms. Though UW is not subject to oversight by the Intelligence Committees, it is subject to oversight by the Armed Services Committees, as are all military activities. What is not clearly defined is an oversight governance structure within the Defense Department and a reporting mechanism for keeping the Armed Services Committees informed. The Armed Services Committees have tacitly acknowledged there is no distinct oversight or reporting mechanism by including language in the authorization to train and equip the Syrian rebels that requires notification prior to commencement of the program, explanation of how the train and equip mission fits within the larger U.S. strategy, and a report on performance of the program every 90 days.[20]

In 2007, Joel Meyer noted the advantages of retaining oversight of UW in the Armed Services Committees and a similar argument for oversight of traditional military activities has been noted in 2010 House Report on cyber activities.[21] Retaining oversight of UW under the Armed Services Committees provides consistency with oversight of other SOF activities; it also aligns oversight with statutory authority. Further, since 2014, the Committees have provided oversight of the military’s “sensitive military operations” - a traditional military activity using clandestine methods - demonstrating their capability to oversee a traditional military activity that, when undertaken by other agencies of the U.S. government, is considered covert action.[22]

Existing oversight and reporting mechanisms for 1208 programs[23] and special access programs[24] provide a start point for designing necessary reporting mechanisms, and the Armed Services Committees could receive a regular report on UW activities. However, part of the angst in Congress, and particularly the Intelligence Committees, is that the level of reporting required for activities expensed through intelligence-designated funds (such as the Military Intelligence Program or National Intelligence Program) exceeds the typical details associated with other funding categories like USSOCOM’s appropriation, the Major Force Program-11 (MFP-11).[25],[26] To mitigate Intelligence Committee concerns about deconfliction and unnecessary duplication with other military, intelligence, or covert action activities, reports to the Armed Services committees on UW activities could also be provided as information to the chair and ranking members of the Intelligence Committees. This approach provides a bridge that retains functional oversight in the Armed Services Committees but creates a mechanism for the reporting of the type of information that satisfies the Intelligence Committees.

The final step in enabling UW is establishing a specific legislative pathway to acquire authorization and a funding mechanism for a UW campaign. This would provide the Defense Department a clear and timely pathway for pursuing UW and would further enhance Congressional oversight by providing a “follow-the-money” tool to monitor how UW funds are spent and how well the programs perform.

In the table below are three possible legislative pathways for a UW campaign that account for the need to address both an authorization and a funding mechanism or appropriation for a UW campaign. An authorization specifies what Defense Department money can be spent on and can also include spending thresholds. An appropriation allocates the funds for the activities, which is a constitutional requirement.

In the first pathway, Congress approves a standing authorization tied to a specific annual appropriation for UW. In the second, Congress approves a standing authorization that allows the Secretary of Defense to expense UW activities from a pre-existing Defense appropriation. In the third possible pathway, Congress approves an authorization and appropriation for each individual UW activity.

uwpaper12a.jpg

http://smallwarsjournal.com/sites/default/files/uwpaper12a.jpg
Table 1: Possible Authorization and Appropriations Models for UW.

An example of the first pathway is the existing covert action contingency fund. The Congressional authorization for CIA to conduct covert action is granted in 50 U.S.C[27] and there are indicators that the classified appropriation, known as the Covert Action Contingency Fund, includes specific annual appropriation amounts for covert action.[28]

The second pathway is drawn from activities authorized through Section 1208 of U.S. Public Law 113-291. Colloquially known as 1208 activities, Public Law 113-291 is a standing Congressional authorization for the Defense Department to train foreign forces to conduct counterterrorism operations on behalf of the U.S. However, 1208 activities do not have a separate appropriation, but rather are expensed out of an existing appropriation, USSOCOM Major Force Program-11.

In the third pathway, there is no standing authorization or specific funding mechanism and thus Congressional action must approve both. The recent mission to train and equip Syrian moderate opposition through section 1209 of U.S. Public Law 113-291 provides an example of this pathway, where Congress authorized the conduct of the activity, as well as the reprogramming of an unrelated Defense appropriation for the purposes of expensing the 1209 activities. While other models do exist, a key nuance is that Congress does not typically appropriate Defense Department funds specifically for the purpose of training and equipping a foreign force. Provisioning a foreign force has typically required separate authorizations and appropriations.[29]

The Congressional record and extensive debate regarding the Defense Department mission to support the Syrian opposition in countering the Islamic State suggests Congress would not likely establish a standing authorization and appropriation for UW activities,[30] although proactively establishing a statutory definition and oversight mechanisms might make this a viable option in the future. This leaves pathways 2 and 3. As noted previously, a yearlong debate surrounded Congress’ eventual approval of an authorization and reprogramming to train and equip the Syrian opposition through a section 1209 program, during which time the Syrian moderate opposition continued to be attrited by the Syrian regime and the Islamic State.[31] This suggests an UW authorization and funding mechanism similar to pathway 3 is not timely enough.

A plausible way forward would be legislation that creates a standing authorization to conduct UW activities, but requires the Defense Department to expense the UW activities against a larger appropriation (pathway 2). This approach provides two advantages. First, the authorization would spell out the details Congress will expect prior to a crisis environment. This prescriptive legislation would allow the Defense Department to understand the details it must report to Congress in order to expense funds for UW activities. Second, it signals to the Defense Department the level of fidelity that will be required in the management of the execution of the activities. The timing of reports, required report details, and established performance metrics would allow the Defense Department to create the processes and tool needed to provide the Congressionally mandated details in a timely and efficient manner.

Conclusion

Changes to the law governing UW would force a public debate necessary for democratic transparency. Similar debates surrounded covert action in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and as was noted by Jim Baker in Regulating Covert Action, “the urgent policy question is which emerging legal and administrative arrangements best equip the United States for its world role while preserving its democratic values.”[32]

A statutory definition of UW, oversight procedures, and UW-specific authorization and appropriation mechanisms are all essential steps for providing transparency to Congress and there-by enabling the timely execution of UW missions with the full backing of the executive and legislative branches. This three-prong approach provides transparency by defining what the activity is, proactively establishing governance structures for the activity, and building necessary bookkeeping to track the money spent on the activity. These proactive steps should provide the mechanism for minimizing the time between an administration decision conduct to UW and the actual employment of a SOF.

The demand for UW options is going to increase: instability continues to spread across the globe, with terrorists finding new safe havens in ungovernable areas, foreign powers threaten regional stability, and resurgent, aggressive nation states are challenging international norms. The Defense Department is the only U.S. agency that has the capacity to deal with multiple or large scale missions to provide support to resistance movements. UW may not be the appropriate solution to a specific foreign policy dilemma – but not even considering UW as an option because we lack certainty in what UW is and we have not had the foresight to build appropriate oversight structures is untenable and does a disservice to the foreign policy community, Congress, SOF, and ultimately, the nation.

End Notes

[1] U.S. Department of Defense, “Special Operations,” Joint Publication 3-05, July 16, 2014. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp3_05.pdf

[2] National Security Act of 1947, Sec. 503(e), 50 U.S.C. § 413b(e).

[3] National Security Act of 1947, Sec. 503(e), 50 U.S.C. § 413b(e).

[4] House Report 102-166: Conference Report on H.R. 1455, the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1991, July 25, 1991.

[5] see Jennifer D. Kibbe, “Covert Action and the Pentagon,” Intelligence and National Security, vol. 22, no. 1, p 57-74, 2007. http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684520701200806

[6] see Robert Chesney, “Military-Intelligence Convergence and the Law of the Title 10/Title 50 Debate,” Journal of National Security Law and Policy, vol. 5, no. 2, p. 539, 2012. http://jnslp.com/2012/01/24/militar...and-the-law-of-the-title-10title-50-debate-3/

[7] Amy B. Zegart, “The Domestic Politics of Irrational Intelligence Oversight,” Political Science Quarterly vol. 126, no. 1, p. 1–25, 2011.

[8] Department of Defense, Department of Defense Directive 3000.07 Irregular Warfare, December 1, 2008. Note the August 28, 2104 updated Irregular warfare directive did include a UW definition that matched the Department of the Army, ATP 3.05-1.

[9] Department of the Army, “Unconventional Warfare,” ATP 3.05-1, 2013.

[10] U.S. Department of Defense, “Special Operations,” Joint Publication 3-05, July 16, 2014. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp3_05.pdf

[11] National Security Act of 1947, Sec. 503(e), 50 U.S.C. § 413b(e).

[12] House Report 111-186: Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010.

[13] “Transcript of President Obama’s Commencement Address at West Point” New York Times, May 28, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/29/u...bamas-commencement-address-at-west-point.html.

[14] Barbara Starr, “Pentagon Proposes Training Moderate Syrian Rebels,” CNN.com, September 19, 2013. http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/18/politics/us-syria-training/

[15] Adam Entous, “Obama Close to Authorizing Military Training of Syrian Rebels,” Wall Street Journal, May 27, 2014. http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-close-to-authorizing-military-training-of-syrian-rebels-1401198550

[16] W. Michael Reisman, Regulating Covert Action, Yale Univ Press, 2011.

[17] James E. Baker, “From Cold War to Long War: Covert Action in U.S. Legal Context”, in Strategic Intelligence Volume 3: Covert action behind the veils of secret foreign policy, ed Loch K. Johnson, Praeger Security International, 2007.

[18] W. Michael Reisman, Regulating Covert Action, Yale Univ Press, 2011.

[19] James E. Baker, “From Cold War to Long War: Covert Action in U.S. Legal Context,” in Strategic Intelligence Volume 3: Covert action behind the veils of secret foreign policy, ed Loch K. Johnson, Praeger Security International, 2007.

[20] Jonathan Weisman, “House Expected to Vote on Training Syrian Rebels to Fight ISIS,” New York Times, September 16, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/u...-on-training-syrian-rebels-to-fight-isis.html

[21] Joel T. Meyer, “Supervising the Pentagon: Covert Action and Traditional Military Activities in the War on Terror,” Administrative Law Review vol. 59, no. 2, April 1, 2007, p. 463–78. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40711988

[22] National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2014.

[23] Support to Military Operations to Combat Terrorism, 10 U.S.C. § 1208.

[24] Special Access Programs: Congressional Oversight, 10 U.S.C. § 119.

[25] Jordana Mishory, “Lawmakers Claim SOCOM budget is Not Conducive to Oversight”, Inside the Pentagon, August 8, 2013.

[26] House Report 113-113, 113th Congress, Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2014.

[27] National Security Act of 1947, Sec. 503(e), 50 U.S.C. § 413b(e).

[28] L. Britt Snider, The Agency & The Hill: CIA's Relationship with Congress, 1946-2004, 2008, p 164.

[29] For example, see International Security Assistance Act of 1977, where congress specifically mandated that “none of the funds made available under this section may be used for military, guerrilla, or paramilitary activities in any country.”

[30] Christopher M. Blanchard and Amy Belasco, “Proposed Train and Equip Authorities for Syria: In brief,” Congressional Research Service, December 3, 2014.

[31] Zeina Karam, “Syrian Rebels Buckling in Face of Jihadis,” Associated Press, June 28, 2014. https://www.yahoo.com/news/syrian-rebels-buckling-face-jihadis-202642372.html?ref=gs

[32] W. Michael Reisman, Regulating Covert Action, Yale Univ Press, 2011.

About the Authors

Jennifer A. Obernier
Dr. Obernier and Mr. Sanders are currently with the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Frank Sanders is a retired U.S. Army Special Forces Colonel. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.

Frank N. Sanders
Dr. Obernier and Mr. Sanders are currently with the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Frank Sanders is a retired U.S. Army Special Forces Colonel. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.

Comments (2)

by Bill C. | September 29, 2016 - 7:19pm Login or register to post comments
Edited and modified slightly from my earlier offering:
In the Old Cold War of yesterday, the U.S./the West (and indeed the rest of the non-communist world) engaged in the use of unconventional warfare as a "defensive"/ "resistance to unwanted transformation and incorporation" method; this, to counter "expansionist" Soviet/communist attempts to transform (more along communist political, economic, social and value lines) and incorporate (more into the communist sphere of influence) the entire non/less-communist world.
In the New/Reverse Cold War of today, this is no longer the case.
In the New/Reverse Cold War of today, a now "expansionist" U.S./the West seeks to use unconventional warfare more in the same manner, and more for the same reasons, as the Soviets/the communists in the Old Cold War of yesterday, to wit: as (a) an "offensive" means/method for (b) advancing one's alien and profane way of life, one's alien and profane way of governance and one's alien and profane values, attitudes and beliefs; this, in the face of -- and indeed in spite of -- -- (c) the "resistance to transformation and incorporation" efforts of one's state and non-state actor Rest of the World enemies.
It is this critical difference/distinction -- re: offense/"expansion" rather than defense/"containment" and "roll back" -- that, I suggest, Congress, the American/Western public, etc., must -- and re: the use of unconventional warfare, political warfare, etc., today -- consider, debate and come to terms with.
Bottom Line:
Our "soft power" having failed us post-the Old Cold War, the U.S./the West, and re: its "expansionist" designs, has determined that it must now contemplate such "hard power" matters as political warfare, unconventional warfare and indeed "small wars" -- for the first time since the colonial period(?) -- more from an "offensive"/ "imperial" point-of-view.
Thus, more from the "advancing (Western) civilization" perspective of Callwell, Kipling and Schumpeter.
(Such things as "instability spreading across the globe, terrorists finding new safe havens in ungovernable areas, foreign powers threatening regional stability, and resurgent, aggressive nation-states challenging international norms?" These such things to be seen as the normal "cause and effect" consequences of an "expansionist" great nation's [the Soviets/the communists then; U.S./the West today] -- obviously disruptive -- attempts to transform the entire Rest of the World more along one's own individual and unique [and, thus, often alien and profane to others] political, economic, social and value lines. Such "cause and effect" disruptions, thus, to be understood as simply being "part and parcel" to such massive "expansionist"/"transformation and incorporation" efforts as those [a] undertaken by the Soviets/the communists in the Old Cold War of yesterday and those undertaken by the U.S./the West in the New/Reverse Cold War of today.)

by Dave Maxwell | September 28, 2016 - 8:40am Login or register to post comments
An excellent article co-authored by one of our nation's foremost experts on unconventional warfare whom most have never heard of because he has so long labored behind the scenes on complex unconventional warfare issues. And there are few people who understand authorities issues better than Frank Sanders. One minor quibble. Although technically correct that there is only one law that cites UW (Title 10, section 167) we should keep in mind that the NDAA 2016 legislation in Section 1097 also defines UW as it calls for DOD to develop a strategy to counter our adversaries who are conducting UW. See page 295 here: https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-114s1356enr/pdf/BILLS-114s1356enr.pdf
 

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WORLD NEWS | Sat Oct 1, 2016 | 5:02pm EDT

Russian and Syrian missiles pound Aleppo, destroy hospital: rebels and aid workers

By Suleiman Al-Khalidi | AMMAN

Russian warplanes and their Syrian government allies battered rebel-held areas in and around Aleppo on Saturday and rebels and aid workers accused them of destroying one of the city's main hospitals, killing at least two patients.

The strike on hospital M10 in eastern Aleppo - the city's main trauma hospital - came as the United States and its allies urged Russia, which is trying to crush resistance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to halt the bombing and reach a diplomatic resolution.

Saturday's air strikes focused on major supply lines into rebel-held areas of Aleppo - the Castello Road and Malah district and around the Handarat camp.

Fighting also raged in the city in Suleiman al Halabi neighborhood, the front line to the north of Aleppo's Old City and in the residential Bustan al Basha quarter.

Rebels and rescuers said at least seven missiles were dropped on hospital M10, more commonly known as Sakhour hospital, by both Russian jets and Syrian helicopters.

An American relief organization said two patients were killed and 13 injured in the attack - the second such on the hospital in less than a week.

"The hospital is now out of service completely. There's destruction to walls, infrastructure, equipment and generators. There are no more guards or staff left. It's complete darkness," said Mohammad Abu Rajab, a radiologist in the hospital.

Footage of the bombed hospital on social media showed extensive damage.

The attack drew immediate condemnation from France and Germany. French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said the shelling of healthcare structures and personnel in Aleppo amounted to war crimes, adding: "Their perpetrators will be held to account."

"The bombing of Aleppo needs to finally stop! Whoever wants to fight terrorists does not attack hospitals!", German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in a tweet.

The U.S envoy to the U.N. last week called Russia's actions in Syria "barbarism" not counter-terrorism.

Rebels say Moscow and the Syrian army have for months been targeting power plants, hospitals and bakeries to force nearly 250,000 believed to be trapped in the city into surrender

Hundreds of people have been killed in indiscriminate bombing of residential areas and many hundreds more wounded, with little access to treatment in hospitals that lack basic supplies.

The army, aided by hundreds of Iranian-backed militias who have arrived in Aleppo, have backed up the air campaign with a ground offensive on several frontlines to break rebel defenses inside the city.

"The regime is spearheading an attack on all fronts and is trying to open more than one major front and of course there are a lot of amassing of troops mostly based in Handarat," said Abu Haidar, a commander in Fastaqim, one of the rebel groups inside Aleppo, said via internet messaging.

In a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was ready to consider more ways to normalize the situation in Aleppo.

But Lavrov criticized Washington's failure to separate moderate rebel groups from those the Russians call terrorists, which had allowed forces led by the group formerly known as the Nusra front to violate the U.S.-Russian truce agreed on Sept. 9.

The United States made clear it would not, at least for now, carry through a threat made on Wednesday to halt the diplomacy if Russia did not take immediate steps to end the violence.

Moscow and Assad spurned the ceasefire to launch the new offensive, potentially the biggest and most decisive battle of the civil war, which is now in its sixth year.

BACK AND FORTH

An army source quoted in state media said its forces had made advances, which was denied by rebels who say they had repelled a new assault.

A news commentary by the state-run Ikhbariyah said "high level coordination from the air and ground by Syrian and Russian warplanes" had allowed the two allies to "successful hit locations where terrorist groups had dug in."

But rebels say Syrian troops backed by fresh reinforcements from Iranian-backed militias were struggling to make any gains in a ground offensive in a key frontline in the old city.

"They are shelling the old city heavily after another failed attempt to gain ground. They have lost several fighters and we are steadfast," said Abu Hamam, a rebel from the Failaq al-Sham group.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based group that monitors the war, reported heavy bombardment by government forces and "back and forth" fighting in the Suleiman al-Halabi neighborhood.

Rebels led by the main Islamist rebel group Ahrar al-Sham said on Saturday they had regained several areas in the Bustan al-Pasha district seized a day before, a strategic point that would allow the army to press into the heart of the rebel held eastern sector.

Russia joined the war exactly a year ago, tipping the balance of power in favor of Assad, who is also supported by Iranian ground forces and Shi'ite militia from Lebanon and Iraq.

The army said it would press its advantage after retaking last Thursday the strategic Handarat camp north of Aleppo that had already changed hands once since the start of the attack.

Rescue workers said at least 34 were killed by sustained Russian and Syrian army strikes and artillery shelling on Friday and into the early hours of Saturday, while state media said rebel mortar attacks on government-held Midan, al Ithaa and other areas in the city had killed at least 20 people.

(Additional reporting by Ellen Francis in Beirut,; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

RELATED COVERAGE

Gulf Arab states call on U.N. to intervene to stop Aleppo assault
France condemns Aleppo hospital bombing, calls attacks war crimes
 

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WORLD NEWS | Sat Oct 1, 2016 | 5:08pm EDT

Six policemen killed in Sinai

Gunmen killed five policemen in the restive northern Sinai on Saturday, the Egyptian interior ministry said on Facebook.

The assailants pulled the policemen out a vehicle in El Obour neighbourhood, south of El Arish city, and shot all five of them dead, security sources said.

In another incident on Saturday morning, nine policemen were injured when an explosive device planted on the road was remotely detonated as the armoured vehicle carrying the conscripts passed in the city of Rafah, security sources said.

One conscript later died of his wounds.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks.

Saturday's attacks come two days after an assassination attempt on a senior Egyptian prosecutor. A recently-emerged militant group called the Hasm Movement later claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it was in revenge for death sentences handed out to thousands of convicts.

The most populous Arab country is battling an insurgency that gained pace after its military overthrew President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's oldest Islamist movement, in mid-2013 following mass protests against his rule.

The insurgency, mounted by Islamic State's Egyptian branch Sinai Province, has killed hundreds of soldiers and police and started to attack Western targets within the country.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the former military chief who led Mursi's ouster, describes Islamist militancy as an existential threat to Egypt, an ally of the United States. Islamic State controls large parts of Iraq and Syria and has a presence in Libya which borders Egypt.

(Reporting by Yusri Mohamed; writing by Amina Ismail; Editing by Richard Balmforth)
 

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NATIONAL

Abe, Modi look to ink civil nuclear pact at November meeting

KYODO
OCT 1, 2016

A meeting between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian counterpart Narendra Modi is set to be held in Tokyo in mid-November, with a civil nuclear cooperation pact likely to be signed, according to a source close to bilateral ties.

The pact would pave the way for Japan to export nuclear power plant technology to the fast-growing Asian economy. But it would be Japan’s first signing of a civil nuclear cooperation pact with a country that has not joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

To ensure the nuclear technology transferred to India, considered a de facto nuclear weapons state, will not be used for military purposes, the pact will include a clause to halt Japanese cooperation with India if New Delhi conducts a nuclear test, the source said. Abe and Modi reached a basic agreement on the pact during a meeting last December.

One of the key issues in the negotiations has been how Japan, as the only country to have suffered nuclear bombings, can ensure India will not resume nuclear tests. Plutonium made by reprocessing spent fuel in a nuclear power plant can be used to make nuclear weapons.

Earlier, other diplomatic sources said that under a provision in the pact, Japan will permit Indian power producers to reprocess spent fuel at designated facilities on the condition the country accepts comprehensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Such “advanced consent” will be withdrawn, however, if threats to national security or issues regarding the protection of nuclear materials arise, the sources said.

India has accepted the Japanese stipulation that nuclear tests be regarded as such a threat, the sources said.

Following the signing of the treaty, the Japanese government will seek swift approval from the Diet to promote Japanese corporate participation in building nuclear power plants in India.

Aside from nuclear cooperation, Abe wants to strengthen coordination with India in maritime security as China continues to elevate its activities in the East and South China seas and the Indian Ocean.

The leaders are expected to confirm that they will deepen defense cooperation, such as through joint maritime exercises involving Japan, India and the United States, and affirm the importance of the rule of law.

Abe is also likely to convey Japan’s concerns about the increase in Chinese activity around the Senkaku Islands, which are administered by Japan but claimed by China and Taiwan.

It will be Modi’s first visit to Japan since August 2014.
 

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Clinton Criticism Could Mean Doom for LRSO

By: Aaron Mehta, September 30, 2016 (Photo Credit: USAF/J.T. Armstrong)

HONOLULU – Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s apparent skepticism of a wide-ranging nuclear weapons modernization plan, including a new cruise missile, puts the future of America’s nuclear posture in question.

According to a New York Times report released Thursday, Clinton told an audience in a February fundraiser that she would turn a critical eye to the nuclear modernization plans of the Obama administration.

The news came out the same week that Secretary of Defense Ash Carter took a cross-country trip to stump for the broad modernization plan that also includes new bombers, submarine and ICBMs, along with modernized warheads and a command and control structure.

“The last thing we need are sophisticated cruise missiles that are nuclear armed,” Clinton reportedly said, adding she “certainly would be inclined” to cancel the Long Range Standoff (LRSO) weapon program, which seeks to replace the US stockpile of nuclear cruise missiles with a modern weapon.

“This is going to be a big issue,” the times quoted Clinton as saying. “It’s not just the nuclear-tipped cruise missile. There’s a lot of other money we’re taking about to go into refurbishing and modernization.”

In the fight over nuclear modernization, the LRSO has become target number one in the nonproliferation community. Congressional democrats – including Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, a close Clinton ally – have attempted to derail the program’s funding, arguing that the weapon is an unclear cost given existing conventional weapons and other nuclear options.

But the Pentagon has steadfastly maintained it requires the LRSO in order to provide options for a future president. Speaking at least week’s Air Force Association conference outside Washington, Gen. Robin Rand, head of Air Force Global Strike Command, defended the need for the LRSO.

“The deterrent value of it; the options that it gives the president,” Rand responded when asked why the weapon was needed. “The ability not to penetrate enemy airspace, not to fly directly to the target. I don’t believe we should put 100 percent of our eggs all in one basket and solely rely on stealth, so this gives you a long-range strike capability.”

Carter defended the need to modernize more broadly in comments Monday at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota, where he appeared in front of a B-52 loaded up with nuclear-capable cruise missiles.

“If we don’t replace these systems, quite simply they will age even more, and become unsafe, unreliable, and ineffective. The fact is, most of our nuclear weapon delivery systems have already been extended decades beyond their original expected service lives,” Carter said. “So it’s not a choice between replacing these platforms or keeping them … it’s really a choice between replacing them or losing them. That would mean losing confidence in our ability to deter, which we can’t afford in today’s volatile security environment.”

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After Nuclear Missile Loss, Dems Vow to Keep Fighting
 

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Kerry’s diplomacy is based on irrational optimism

Oct 1 2016 12:01 am Oct 1 5:24 pm
BY ELI LAKE

If you’ve ever wondered how Secretary of State John Kerry’s understands diplomacy, the waiting is over. On Thursday, at the Aspen Institute’s Washington Ideas Forum, Steve Clemons of the Atlantic pried it out of America’s top diplomat: What exactly is the “John Kerry secret sauce?”

There are interests and values, Kerry said. “You may have tension with the values because of the level of the interest, or the values may be — I mean, the Holocaust or Rwanda — which is also relevant to the debate about Syria, by the way, the killings and the torture and the barrel bombs and the gas.”

But then we got that secret sauce. After you figure out those values and interests, “you have to figure out whether you can find in the adversaries a meeting of the minds on any of the interests and/or values,” he said.

First, let’s state that what Kerry said is like a football coach saying, “We want to go try to put more points on the board than the other guys.”

Kerry’s weakness is that he never gets to the point where he concludes an adversary doesn’t share our interests and values. He just keeps engaging. Take Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Even after the horror of the last week, when the Russians and Syrians bombed an aid convoy that sought to deliver food and medicine to the besieged city of Aleppo, Kerry can’t quite end the talks.

Then there is the stubborn fact that it’s difficult to find places where the U.S. has advanced its interests or values in the last four years. Kerry spent a year and a half on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, with no results. In 2013, after making the case that Bashar al-Assad’s gassing of civilians in Syria was akin to the Nazis, he negotiated a deal to remove those chemical weapons that allowed the regime to continue to drop them.

In the South China Sea, China builds artificial islands and militarizes them. In Europe, Russia has annexed Crimea. Iraq is still trying to build a political consensus to cleave its Sunni citizens away from the Islamic State. The Afghan government is losing territory to the Taliban.

Kerry said, “I hear people allege that the United States is retrenching and that we’re somehow pulling back,” But he assured that this wasn’t true: “There has never been a moment where the United States is more engaged in more places simultaneously on as significant a number of complicated issues as we are today.”

Notice that Kerry is not touting how America is advancing its values or interests. I hope the committee awards him the Nobel Prize for Participation.

Then Kerry ticked off a bunch of places where he thinks U.S. diplomacy has succeeded. This includes Afghanistan, which is a success because the government in Kabul hasn’t totally collapsed.

U.S. diplomacy in the South China Sea counts as success because “we’ve held that from becoming a major conflict.” In Ukraine, “the sanctions worked.” In Yemen, “we’re on the verge maybe of a ceasefire there.”

In fairness to Kerry, he also mentioned the fact that relief efforts saved perhaps a million lives from Ebola, and that many African children are now growing up without the scourge of AIDS. On the latter, he did not mention much cheaper AIDS medication has come on the market, and George W. Bush invested billions in trying to address the problem.

You have to credit Kerry for never becoming discouraged. This brings us to Kerry’s most consequential diplomacy: the Iran nuclear deal.

Kerry explained that for now, the pact has held, but the Iranians are still worried they have not seen more benefits.

Kerry understands that he negotiated a deal with an Iranian leader who can’t or won’t end his country’s hostility toward the U.S. and its allies. And most of the limits on nuclear fuel production are lifted in the next 9 to 14 years.

That’s when we’ll find out whether this bargain advanced America’s interests and values.

Eli Lake is a Bloomberg View columnist.
 

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IS Takes to Ancient Strategy as Battle for Mosul Looms

October 01, 2016 12:30 PM
Rikar Hussein

Reeling from U.S.-led coalition airstrikes and battlefield defeats by Iraqi and Kurdish forces, the Islamic State (IS) is resorting to an ancient defense strategy as a massive battle looms to eject the militants from Mosul.

The tactics are drawn from the “Battle of the Trench,” a story narrated from Islamic history texts in which the Islamic Prophet Muhammad led 3,000 defenders of Medina to prevail over 10,000 Arab and Jewish troops in 627 A.D.

IS fighters are using the ancient tale - a highly significant religious moment for many Muslims around the world - to rally followers worldwide via internet posts and social media accounts.

The size of the force left to defend IS’s last remaining stronghold in Iraq has been cut by as much as two-thirds, U.S. military officials say, leaving only 3,000 to 4,500 fighters left in Mosul, U.S. officials say. A U.S.-aided Iraqi and Kurdish assault on Mosul could begin in October, according to reports.

"They know they don't have what it takes to stop that offensive," Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman Colonel John Dorrian said Thursday, referring to IS.

FILE - Iraqi security forces ride in vehicles towards to Mosul, Feb. 21, 2016. The city has been now been controlled by IS militants for more than two years.
FILE - Iraqi security forces ride in vehicles towards to Mosul, Feb. 21, 2016. The city has been now been controlled by IS militants for more than two years.
Prophet's strategy

Copying the prophet’s war tactic, IS has dug miles of trenches around Mosul – a city of about a half-million people it has controlled since June 2014. Thousands of concrete barriers have been erected by militants around the outskirts of Mosul, according to American and Kurdish intelligence.

“IS has increased its efforts to fortify the city with the trenches and the barriers over the last couple months,” Ismat Rajab, a Kurdish Mosul official in exile, told VOA. “The trenches are three meters deep and two meters wide and are filled with oil in some places. ... IS knows losing Mosul is deadly for them, so they will do anything to hold it.”

In its media postings, IS has named its Mosul operation “Battle of the Trench," copying the moniker for the prophet-led victory in what is now Saudi Arabia. The 14-century-old battle is often taught by Muslim preachers as a story of Muslim victory by a unified flock, a willingness to overcome oppression, and a lesson to obey leaders during difficult situations.

One preacher in Mosul harkened back to the prophet’s conquest in a recent speech, according to the Iraqi news agency Niqash.

“War is coming and the survival of the caliphate will depend on the steadfastness of Mosul in confronting the infidels,” the preacher, a man in his 30s, told worshipers in the Umar ibn al-Khattab mosque in Mosul’s Nahrawan neighborhood.

“Did you hear about the battle fought by Muslims, led by the Prophet Mohammed, in 627 A.D.?” he asked worshipers. “Do you know how they won that battle? The people followed their leader and they did not betray him. That is why the sons of Mosul should be patient and why they should tolerate hunger, thirst and fear. They should support the caliphate and prevent the infidels from entering the city.”

Members of a Shi'ite militia group undergo training as part of preparations to recapture Mosul, in Diyala province, Iraq, Sept. 27, 2016.
Members of a Shi'ite militia group undergo training as part of preparations to recapture Mosul, in Diyala province, Iraq, Sept. 27, 2016.

'Battle of the Trench'

In late August, IS released a video intended for Iraqis under IS control that announced “just like Muhammad’s time, there are three groups of people in the new Battle of the Trench.”

“The first group are honest believers who depend on nothing but their confidence of God,” the narrator said in the video. “The second group are the hypocrites … who doubted God and thought victory is by the side of infidels.” The third group are “the Christians, Jews, seculars and apostates,” the narrator said.

“Today, God wants history to repeat itself and here is Battle of the Trench reoccurring again with the same precision and with confederation among the same parties to defeat the Islamic State,” the narrator said.

IS sympathizers are also referring to the prophet’s battle on social media posts.

The “Mosul battle is a decisive battle between infidelity and faith and is similar to Battle of the Trench. Woe to infidels who are going to lose,” one IS supporter tweeted.

Another supported tweeted that the “Mosul battle is the Battle of Confederates. The airplanes will not benefit you during the winter and victory comes from God not America. A nation that practices rule of God will not fall.”

Media campaign

IS often refers to early Islamic history in media campaigns to draw radicalized Muslims to their self-proclaimed caliphate and legitimize a self-proclaimed religious existence, said Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University.

“They model themselves based on the Islamic events,” Haykel said. “They’re projecting over the past and they want people to see them like the first warriors of Islam during the time of Muhammad.”

0D9A0266-F21C-46F0-BD98-13736DD01681_w610_r0_s.jpg

http://gdb.voanews.com/0D9A0266-F21C-46F0-BD98-13736DD01681_w610_r0_s.jpg
This U.N. map shows expected paths of escape from Mosul
But it’s unlikely, given the allied firepower, that history will help spare IS in Mosul, said Rajab, the Mosul leader in exile.

“Digging those trenches might buy them some time, but it won’t save them by the end of the day,” he said. “The coalition and Iraqi forces are well aware of this and have prepared for such a scenario.

"Unlike Prophet Muhammad’s time, technology is very developed now and no natural or manmade barrier can prevent a military with advanced weaponry,” Rajab said.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.france24.com/en/20161001-ukraine-army-rebels-pull-back-troops-eastern-town

01 October 2016 - 21H25 (Paris Time - HC)

Ukraine army, rebels pull back troops from eastern town

KIEV (AFP) - Ukraine's army and pro-Russian separatists both announced Saturday the pull back of their troops from a small eastern city as agreed in a demilitarisation accord signed last month.

Ukrainian military spokesman Valentyn Shevchenko told AFP that both sides had moved their forces to several kilometres (miles) away from Zolote.

"Some representatives of the OSCE observer mission confirmed the retreat," he said, referring to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

The official press agency of the separatists in eastern Ukraine also announced the retreat of their troops from Zolote.

"Not a single soldier remains at the positions which they previously occupied, conforming to what is required by the Minsk peace accord," rebel commander Mikhail Filimonenko said, according to the agency.

Negotiators for Kiev and the pro-Moscow rebels reached an agreement in Minsk in September to demilitarise three frontline areas in eastern Ukraine, withdrawing heavy arms and fighters from the towns of Stanytsya Luganska as well as Zolote in the Lugansk region and Petrovske in the Donetsk region.

The retreat of troops has not yet taken place in the other two cities, according to the separatists.

Enacting this accord would create a security perimeter of two kilometres (1.2 miles) around the three frontline towns and is seen as a small step forward in Ukraine's stalled peace process.

The conflict erupted after Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014.

Kiev and the West accuse Russia of fuelling the conflict, which has killed more than 9,640 people. Moscow however denies government involvement.

A peace deal brokered by Germany and France in February 2015 reduced the intensity of fighting but has failed to stop it.

© 2016 AFP
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Reports of clashes between Indian and Pakistani forces near the town of Poonch.
Started by*danielboon‎,*09-28-2016*01:33 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...kistani-forces-near-the-town-of-Poonch./page2

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ills-one/ar-BBwUwZA?li=AA4Zpp&ocid=spartandhp

Militant attack on Indian army base in Kashmir kills one

Reuters
Fayaz Bukhari
2 hrs ago

SRINAGAR, India, Oct 3 (Reuters) - At least six militants attacked an Indian army camp in north Kashmir on Sunday night, killing one border guard and wounding another, two weeks after a similar attack killed 19 Indian soldiers and ratcheted up tensions between India and Pakistan.

The attack on the camp of India's 46 Rastriya Rifles in Baramulla, which also houses a unit of the Border Security Force, started at around 10:30 pm (1700 GMT) and repeated exchanges of fire ensued.

One border guard was killed and one wounded when militants tried to enter the army camp, said Baramulla Superintendent of Police Imtiyaz Hussein.

Nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan have been at odds over Kashmir ever since independence nearly 70 years ago, fighting two of their three wars over the territory that they each rule in part but claim in full.

Hussein said the militants in the latest attack, who appear to have reached the camp by boat on a river that passes through the town, had escaped.

"They fled under the cover of darkness," he told Reuters on Monday morning.

India called its 4 Para special forces unit in to Baramulla and an operation continued into the morning to search and secure the army camp.

Baramulla is a district capital that lies on the road from Srinagar, the summer capital of India's northernmost state, to the frontier settlement of Uri, where the Sept. 18 attack on the army base took place.

India launched retaliatory "surgical strikes" in the early hours of Thursday against militant camps on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control, announcing it had inflicted significant casualties.

Pakistan denied any such attack had taken place.

India's announcement that it had conducted the cross-border raid was the first in decades, and raised international fears that its campaign to isolate Pakistan diplomatically and punish it militarily could lead to an armed escalation.

After the Indian operation, the United States urged India and Pakistan to show restraint. On Monday, Pakistan said the two countries' national security advisers had been in touch in an attempt to calm the situation on the Line of Control (LoC).

"Pakistan wants to reduce tensions on LoC and focus on Kashmir," Sartaj Aziz, foreign policy adviser to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, said in a statement.

(Reporting by Fayaz Bukhari; Writing by Douglas Busvine and Ruth Pitchford; Editing by Paul Tait)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
US To Suspend Syria Diplomacy With Russia, Prepares "Military Options"
Started by*Hfcomms‎,*09-29-2016*11:32 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...sia-Prepares-quot-Military-Options-quot/page4

Syria war: John Kerry urges planes to be grounded
Started by*danielboon‎,*09-21-2016*09:30 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ia-war-John-Kerry-urges-planes-to-be-grounded

FUNG RED ALERT: U.S. Aircraft Srike Syrian Army Positions...........It Begins.
Started by*doctor_fungcool‎,*09-17-2016*10:58 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ian-Army-Positions...........It-Begins./page7

Military.com: US Scrambles Fighters After Syrian Aircraft Bombed Near SpecOps Forces
Started by*Possible Impact‎,*08-19-2016*12:50 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ian-Aircraft-Bombed-Near-SpecOps-Forces/page2

Turkey Says "Massive Escalation" In Syria Imminent *update #280, Saudis launch strikes
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...nent-*update-280-Saudis-launch-strikes/page52

For later.....http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/search.php?searchid=2314746
----------

Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.aawsat.com/2016/10/article55359472/turkey-proposes-joining-u-s-raqqa-battle

Turkey Proposes Joining U.S. in Raqqa Battle

Said Abdul Razzak
22 hours ago

Ankara – Turkey has proposed forming a joint operation administration in Manbij between Arab fighters within the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian Free Army.

“The Arab elements of the SDF should learn to cooperate with the Free Syrian Army (FSA). We want the Arab elements of the SDF and the FSA to establish a joint administration in Manbij,” a senior Turkish official told Anadolou News Agency.

The official, whose name was not revealed, said that both the SDF and FSA should act together in a military offensive towards liberating Raqqa.

He reiterated Ankara’s refusal of the participation of any Kurdish militias in the operations.

The main group within the SDF is the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey charges is closely linked with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), is a terrorist organization according to Ankara.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had renewed Ankara’s wished to participate in the operations led by the U.S. in the liberation of Raqqa from ISIS terrorists, given that no Kuridsh Syrian fighters participate.

It is known that Washington considers the YPG its ally and continue to arm the forces despite Ankara’s objection.

The official expressed his country’s willingness to coordinate with the international coalition within a plan set prior to the initiation of the military action.

He added that Ankara had presented its vision for the liberation to the Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his visit to Turkey few days ago.

Turkish sources revealed that, and according to Ankara, during the liberation of Raqqa, FSA fighters should replace the YPG.

During a phone call, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu discussed with his U.S. counterpart John Kerry the situations in Syria, especially Aleppo.

Turkish diplomatic sources said that the both Cavusoglu and Kerry discussed the steps that need to be taken in the coming stages regarding sending aid to besieged citizens.

As part of the ongoing “Euphrates Shield” operation, the Turkish military hit ten ISIS targets on Saturday, and destroyed over 99 targets belonging to the extremist organization within Syria.

According to a written statement released by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF), the forces on the Turkish-Syrian border had targeted 99 ISIS locations with howitzer and rocket fire.

The statement also indicated that the forces captured 1835 persons trying to infiltrate the borders illegally, 1592 of which were trying to cross from Syria to Turkey and 18 the other way.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
M5.3 Explosion - 15km ENE of Sungjibaegam, North Korea
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...on-15km-ENE-of-Sungjibaegam-North-Korea/page6

S. Korea: North Korea test fires submarine missile (23 Aug 16) ETA: Flew 300 miles
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...-missile-(23-Aug-16)-ETA-Flew-300-miles/page2


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://38north.org/2016/09/sinpo093016/

Is North Korea Building a New Submarine?

By 38 North
30 September 2016

A 38 North exclusive by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

Summary

Commercial satellite imagery strongly suggests that a naval construction program is underway at North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard, possibly to build a new submarine. While there is no direct evidence that the program is for a boat to carry the ballistic missile currently under development, the presence of an approximately 10-meter-in-diameter circular component outside the facility’s recently renovated fabrication hall may be intended as a construction-jig[1] or as a component for the pressure hull of a new submarine. However, it is also possible the ring may be related to another construction project. If this activity is indeed to build a new submarine, it would appear to be larger than North Korea’s GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA), which has a beam of approximately 7 meters.[2]

Laying the Groundwork for a New Program

While North Korea has built submarines at a number of locations, the vast majority of which have been built at the Sinpo South Shipyard.[3] The shipyard is also the headquarters of the Maritime Research Institute of the Academy of National Defense Science responsible for research and development of maritime technology, naval vessels and submarines, and naval related armaments and missiles.[4] North Korea’s GORAE-class submarine was built and is ported here.

Shortly after the launch of this submarine, North Korea began a revitalization program of the machine, fabrication and construction facilities at the shipyard. Most significantly, beginning in 2014, the North focused on renovating the main construction and adjacent fabrication halls that had been abandoned and roofless since about 2010.[5] *The fabrication building was externally complete by November 2014 and the construction hall by October 2015. These facilities provide North Korea with the capability to build new submarines much larger than the current GORAE-class or ROMEO-class.[6]

Key Signatures of Submarine Construction

The appearance and movement of raw steel, fabricated sub-components and finished components around the facilities construction and fabrication halls and parts storage yards are indicators of naval construction. Accompanying these signatures are the movement of vehicles and cranes around the same buildings and storage yards. Imagery from January to September 2016 indicates the following activities around these halls:

Movement of numerous large and small components within the two parts storage yards adjacent to the fabrication and construction halls;
The repositioning of both rail-mounted tower and gantry cranes supporting these parts storage yards[7];
The occasional presence of large groups of workers between the two halls and around the parts storage yards;
The occasional presence of heavy equipment transporters; and
The repositioning of the large access doors of both halls.

Moreover, imagery from September 24 shows the presence of a 10-meter-in-diameter circular component that may be intended for the construction of a new submarine—either as a construction jig or component of a pressure hull. This component is on a large rail-mounted transfer table outside the fabrication building. Components fabricated here would typically be moved out to the parts yard on a transfer table. Here, a rail-mounted overhead gantry crane would move them from the fabrication building’s transfer table to the construction hall’s transfer table. They would then be moved into the construction hall for assembly.

Figure 1. Workers and cranes seen near the construction and fabrication halls in January.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 2. Regular repositioning of cranes supporting the parts storage yards.


March 28, 2016. Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.


April 11, 2016. Figure 2B. Regular repositioning of cranes supporting the parts storage yards. Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.


May 28, 2016. Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

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Figure 3. Heavy equipment transporters appear.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 4. Workers seen around the two halls and yards, and new components are visible.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 5. Large circular component seen at storage yard.

Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 6. Close up view of new components seen at the storage yard.

Image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
_______________

[1] A construction jig holds components in proper position as they are being worked on (i.e., welding, wiring, etc.)
[2] The GORAE-class submarine is sometimes identified as the SINPO-class because of where it was first seen. See history of ballistic missile submarine development at Sinpo at http://38north.org/?s=sinpo.
[3] The Sinpo South Shipyard is sometimes known by the cover name “Pongdae Boiler Plant.”
[4] Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Shield of the Great Leader: The Armed Forces of North Korea (London: I.B. Taurus, 2001) 45-55.
[5] Construction halls are sometimes called erection halls.
[6] The GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) has dimensions of approximately 66.7 x 7.7 meters and the ROMEO-class are attack submarines (SS) armed with torpedoes with dimensions of 76.6 x 6.7 meters.
[7] Although not identified specifically in the accompanying imagery, in addition to the two rail-mounted gantry cranes, there are 4 rail-mounted tower cranes in and adjacent to the parts storage yards.

One Response to “Is North Korea Building a New Submarine?”

Henri Kenhmann says:
October 1, 2016 at 7:18 pm
If true, then a 10 meters beam would mean the North Korean first generation SSBN will be in the class of the Chinese first generation ballistic missile submarine, the Type 092 Xia-class SSBN. Not surprising as the Pukguksong-1 seems very similar in size and performance to China’s own Julang-1 SLBM.

In addition, official picture of an Iranian SSBN with 14 launch tubes for nuclear ballistic missiles, have already been disclosed back in June 2012 as “Rear Admiral Abbas Zamini pointed to the Iranian Navy’s plan to manufacture super heavy nuclear-powered submarines”.

http://i.imgur.com/oXw05ph.jpg
Original Farsnews link (dead):
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9103081864
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ans-reject-deal-to-end-52-year-FARC-rebel-war

WOW!........

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-peace-idUSKCN12204M

World News | Mon Oct 3, 2016 | 12:12am EDT

Colombians reject deal to end 52-year FARC rebel war

By Helen Murphy and Julia Symmes Cobb | BOGOTA

Colombians narrowly rejected a peace deal with Marxist guerrillas in a referendum on Sunday, plunging the nation into uncertainty and dashing President Juan Manuel Santos' painstakingly negotiated plan to end the 52-year war.

The surprise victory for the "no" camp poured cold water on international joy, from the White House to the Vatican, at what had seemed to be the end of the longest-running conflict in the Americas.

The "no" camp won by 50.21 percent to 49.78 percent. Voter turnout was only 37 percent, perhaps partly owing to torrential rain through the country.

Both sides in the war immediately sought to reassure the world they would try to revive their peace plan.

Santos, 65, said a ceasefire already negotiated would remain in place. He vowed to sit down on Monday with the victorious "no" camp to discuss the way forward, and send his chief negotiator back to Cuba to meet with FARC rebel leaders.

"I will not give up, I will keep seeking peace until the last day of my term because that is the way to leave a better nation for our children," said Santos, who cannot seek re-election when his second term ends in August 2018.

The commander of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, known by his nom de guerre, Timochenko, gave a similar message from Havana, where peace negotiations have taken place over the last four years.

"The FARC reiterates its disposition to use only words as a weapon to build toward the future," said Timochenko, whose real name is Rodrigo Londono. "To the Colombian people who dream of peace, count on us, peace will triumph."

Santos recently said a "no" vote would mean a return to war, and opinion polls had predicted he would win comfortably.

Traditionally conservative Colombian voters, in favor of peace in principle but unhappy at perceived soft treatment for the guerrillas, confounded those forecasts.

RENEGOTIATION?

Opponents of the pact believed it was too lenient on the FARC rebels by allowing them to re-enter society, form a political party and escape jail sentences.

"I voted no. I don't want to teach my children that everything can be forgiven," said Bogota engineer Alejandro Jaramillo, 35.

Opponents want a renegotiation of the deal with rebel leaders serving jail time and receiving no free seats in Congress.

"We all want peace, no one wants violence," said influential former president Alvaro Uribe who led the "No" campaign. "We insist on corrections so there is respect for the constitution... We want to contribute to a national accord and be heard."

"No" voters appeared to have been more highly motivated on Sunday. And some Colombians may have felt pressured to tell pollsters they were voting for peace despite private doubts.

Regions still riven by the conflict, including poor areas along the Pacific and Caribbean coasts, voted resoundingly in favor of the deal, but formerly violent interior regions pacified during the Uribe presidency backed the "no" camp.

The rebels, whose numbers were halved to about 7,000 in recent years because of a U.S.-backed military offensive, had agreed to turn in weapons and fight for power at the ballot box instead.

Under the accord, the FARC, which began as a peasant revolt in 1964, would have been able to compete in the 2018 presidential and legislative elections and have 10 unelected congressional seats guaranteed through 2026.

It would also have given up its role in the lucrative illegal drug trade and taken part in reforming rural Colombia.

But controversially, many rebel leaders who ordered killings, bombings and displacements would have had to appear before a special tribunal that could sentence them to alternative punishments like clearing landmines.

BLOODSHED

Related Coverage
VIDEO Colombia's Santos committed to peace, despite 'no' vote
Colombia's Santos accepts 'no' win in peace vote, says ceasefire to continue
Colombia's FARC leader say he maintains will for peace despite referendum loss

For decades, the FARC bankrolled the longest-running conflict in the Americas through the illegal drug trade, kidnapping and extortion.

Battles between the guerrillas, paramilitaries, drug gangs and the army raged in the countryside and there were atrocities committed on all sides.

The conflict took more than 220,000 lives and displaced millions of people. At one stage, the FARC was positioned close to the capital and the state was on the verge of collapse.

Supporters of the peace deal were stunned by the plebiscite result.

"How sad. It seems Colombia has forgotten about the cruelty of war, our deaths, our injured, our mutilated, our victims and the suffering we've all lived through with this war," said Adriana Rivera, 43, a philosophy professor standing tearfully at the hotel of the "yes" campaign.

The vote was a disaster for Santos, who had hoped to turn his focus quickly to other matters including possible talks with the smaller ELN rebel group, a much-needed tax reform and other economic measures to compensate for a drop in oil income.

The government had hoped peace would lead to a boom in investment by commodities investors, in gold mines, oil and agriculture in Latin America's fourth-largest economy.

After Sunday's vote, companies will be rethinking the situation.

Although the "no" camp has broached the idea of fresh talks, the FARC has said no group sits at a negotiating table to agree to jail time.

"Today will be remembered by history as the moment Colombia turned its back on what could have been the end of a war that for more than 50 years devastated millions of lives," said Erika Guevara-Rosas, Americas director for rights group Amnesty International. "Even though it was imperfect, the accord was a sure path to peace and justice."

(Reporting by Helen Murphy and Julia Symmes Cobb; Additional reporting by Carlos Vargas and Monica Garcia; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne, Kieran Murray and Peter Cooney)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Here we go again......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-idUSKCN123086

World News | Mon Oct 3, 2016 | 3:24am EDT

Taliban fighters enter northern Afghan city of Kunduz

Taliban fighters attacked the northern Afghan city of Kunduz overnight, entering urban areas and threatening a repeat of the assault in which they seized the city exactly a year ago.

Sheer Ali Kamawal, commander of the 808 Tandar police zone in Kunduz, said the attack began at around midnight (1930 GMT Sunday) and fighting was going on in and around the city. Some Taliban fighters had entrenched themselves in homes.

The fighters appear to have slipped through a defensive security line set up around Kunduz, entering the city itself before clashes broke out, witnesses in the city said.

In Kabul, Brigadier General Charles Cleveland, spokesman for Afghanistan's NATO-led force, said he was aware of reports of sporadic fighting in Kunduz but said he had not seen evidence of a major Taliban offensive.

"At this point, we are not observing evidence via our internal means to support the reports that Kunduz is under significant attack," he said in an emailed statement.

Police spokesman Mahfozullah Akbari said security forces were preparing to drive out the fighters, who had infiltrated the Khak Kani area in the city's southwest.

"The Taliban are inside some civilian houses and we have to carry out operations very carefully," he said.

The interior ministry said reinforcements were being sent.

Military helicopters flew overhead and gunfire could be heard in Kunduz, where a year ago to the day, Afghan troops backed by U.S. air strikes and special forces battled to drive out Taliban who had raised their flag in the city center.

On Monday, a Reuters reporter saw at least five Taliban fighters armed with AK-47 assault rifles, machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades in the city. He saw fighters entering homes and taking up position on roofs.

The attack, a day before the start of a major donor conference in Brussels, underlines Afghanistan's precarious security. Government forces are estimated to have control over at most two-thirds of the country.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in his official Twitter account four government checkpoints in Kunduz had been captured and some soldiers had been killed.

"A massive operation started on Kunduz capital from four directions early this morning," he said.

ATTACKS ACROSS AFGHANISTAN

The attack came as the Taliban have stepped up attacks in different parts of Afghanistan, including the southern province of Helmand, where they have been threatening the provincial capital of Lashkar Gah.

On Monday, Taliban fighters, positioned just across the Helmand river from the center of Lashkar Gah, also took control of Nawa district to the south, killing a district police chief, officials said.

Also In World News
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Heavy fighting has also continued along the main highway to Tarin Kot, the provincial capital of Uruzgan, also in the south, where a Taliban raid on Sept. 8 sparked fears of another collapse like that in Kunduz last year.

The raid on Tarin Kot was beaten back but alarmed security officials because the militants were able to enter the city without significant resistance after police abandoned dozens of checkpoints.

The fall of Kunduz last year was one of the most serious blows suffered by the Western-backed government in Kabul since the withdrawal of most international troops at the end of 2014.

Although the insurgents abandoned Kunduz after a few days, their capture of a provincial capital underlined their growing strength and exposed flaws in Afghan security forces.

Afghanistan's international partners are expected to approve maintaining billions of dollars in funding for the government over the next four years at the two-day Brussels meeting.

(Reporting by Afghanistan bureau; Writing by James Mackenzie; Editing by Paul Tait, Robert Birsel)

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5 Philippines' Duterte says China, Russia supportive when he complained of U.S
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-rights-idUSKCN12309I

World News | Mon Oct 3, 2016 | 1:44am EDT

Hundreds protest in Bangkok urging junta to respect land rights

Hundreds of protesters took to the streets of the Thai capital on Monday calling on the junta to address land rights and housing needs in what police and organizers said was one of the biggest demonstrations since the May 2014 coup.

Development in Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy, has come at a cost to local communities who often face threats, violence and judicial harassment, say rights groups.

Protesters marking World Habitat Day outside the regional UN headquarters in Asia said they would hand a petition to the United Nations and then march on to Government House, a stone's throw away, to demand land reform.

"We came today so that the government can fix the land problems and land rights of poor people throughout the country," said Somneuk Phootnuan, 60, a rubber farmer from the southern province of Nakhon Si Thammarat.

"If we keep kicking the poor off government land, we won't have anywhere to live or make a living," he said, as protesters waved flags and signs near the U.N. building.

Sompong Chingduang, a police officer at the protest site, said around 1,000 people had gathered by mid-morning. Political protests have been outlawed since Thailand's generals seized power, ending months of sometimes violent street protests, but leaders of the demonstration said their gathering was not political.

World Habitat Day is observed annually on the first Monday of October as a way of reminding the world of people's right to adequate shelter.

(Reporting by Cod Satrusayang; Writing by Amy Sawitta Lefevre; Editing by Nick Macfie)
 

Housecarl

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http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?501181-Go-Ahead.-Let-Japan-and-South-Korea-Go-Nuclear

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http://nationalinterest.org/feature/go-ahead-let-japan-south-korea-go-nuclear-17897?page=show

Go Ahead. Let Japan and South Korea Go Nuclear.

Nonproliferation zealots are making sure nuclear weapons now proliferate only to totalitarian states.

James Van de Velde
October 1, 2016
Comments 34

Japan ought to become a nuclear-weapons power as soon as possible. South Korea ought to begin a nuclear-weapons program.

The North Korean state is a national gulag. The regime is illegitimate, unstable and totalitarian—and a proliferator of nuclear-weapons technology. It brings nothing to the world but misery, widespread death to the Korean people, suffering and political instability.

Foolishly, the state is sustained by China, which thinks that it would be better to sustain North Korea than to facilitate its collapse, which might lead to a larger U.S. presence on the Korean Peninsula. But this thinking is politically shortsighted: the collapse of the North Korean regime would allow the Republic of Korea to absorb the North, thereby ending the entire reason U.S. forces are on the Peninsula. American forces would likely leave Korea, not grow, once the Pyongyang regime collapses.

Further, it was China that gave North Korea many of the ballistic-missile technologies that it uses to threaten us and our allies. China is not timidly and reluctantly standing with North Korea; it is, as usual, actively contributing to the North Korean mess. China uses North Korea to shove the United States away from Asia and keep Western diplomacy off balance, defensive and uninitiated.

Nonproliferation zealots are making sure nuclear weapons now proliferate only to totalitarian states. Despite much rhetoric and sincere, well-intentioned efforts, the United States sat by as North Korea developed its nuclear weapons. It is not too late to disabuse China and North Korea of the idea that nuclear proliferation pays. Japan ought to begin a sincere program to build deliverable nuclear weapons to show China that China’s support to North Korea is counterproductive and strategically naive. The Republic of Korea ought to begin a nuclear-weapons development program.

Since China would greatly oppose Japan becoming a nuclear-weapons state, should Japan declare its intention to start a nuclear-weapons program in response to these repeated, unjustified and deeply threatening provocations by the Pyongyang regime, China might finally realize that it is in its interest to facilitate the collapse of the totalitarian regime in Pyongyang and allow the Seoul government to absorb the North. The United States could reassure China that U.S. forces are in Korea only to defend the South Koreans. And Japan could assure China that its program is entirely defensive and would likely be suspended, should the North Korean regime collapse and the peninsula become completely denuclearized. A Japanese nuclear-weapons program would be entirely within Japan’s constitutional rights, given the North Korean nuclear-weapons program.

The U.S. nuclear umbrella for Japan is made credible by the presence of U.S. forces in Japan (which is declining, given our indebtedness and weakening of alliances), the presence of U.S. naval forces in the region (which is being challenged by China) and a strong commitment by the U.S. government (which is questioned these days). But if, of course, North Korea successfully develops an intercontinental ballistic missile and a compatible nuclear warhead that could be delivered to U.S. soil, then the same threat to the U.S. nuclear umbrella that occurred in Europe will occur for Japan and the Republic of Korea: North Korea might have the capability to strike either with a nuclear weapon and then deter the United States from retaliating with the threat of a North Korean nuclear weapon on top of an ICBM. The North Korean ballistic missile program threatens the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Japan and the Republic of Korea have every right—in fact, a duty and a UN-protected right—to self-defense.

In short, there is no future and no other solution to this regional problem other than the collapse of the Pyongyang regime. There is no historical model through which a totalitarian state like North Korea evolves. There is no confederation scenario that is possible with a totalitarian state. Unlike authoritarian states, totalitarian states cannot evolve; they implode. The best future—dissolution—should be something for China to seek, trigger and help manage.

Since the initiation of a Japanese nuclear weapons program would provoke China into concluding that North Korea is far more trouble than it is worth as a buffer against U.S. forces in the South, the people of North Korea would benefit the most, since they suffer daily. The goal is to collapse the Pyongyang regime peacefully, much like the East German regime collapsed. This is also the best means to effect true nuclear counter-proliferation; without it, the world will have to live with one more totalitarian nuclear state—a nuclear North Korea—forever.

If the Chinese played chess and not tic-tac-toe on the Korean Peninsula, they would maneuver to collapse the northern regime by first opening Chinese borders (like Hungary did to East Germany) and then provide asylum to the Northern political leadership and general officer corps and ask Seoul to assume economic and political responsibility for the entire Korean people, in exchange for a nuclear-free (and U.S.-military-free) Korean Peninsula. The Koreans (and Japanese) would jump at the deal. And the Japanese nuclear-weapons program would end.

At present, the Chinese wrongly think that they can tolerate the North’s antics and provocations, because they assume the Kim Jong-un regime is not serious with its threats to start large-scale conflict, and North Korea serves a purpose of keeping the Americans in the South. The North acts out with these threats to secure its continuation and appearance of legitimacy with the rest of the world, seeking a peace treaty/agreement with the United States that will allow it to continue unthreatened and deter Western designs for the Pyongyang regime’s collapse.

The Chinese government must conclude that North Korea is far more of a strategic danger to China than a unified and strategically neutral Korea under the governance of Seoul. A Japanese and South Korean nuclear-weapons program would bring a geostrategic situation clearly less favorable to China. At present, politicians in the West are too timid to recommend such a step, and cling to shallow arguments that the world should be rid of nuclear weapons—so that only rogue states will have them.

James Van de Velde is Adjunct Faculty at the National Intelligence University, the Center for Advanced Governmental Studies, Johns Hopkins University and the Edmund Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. government, the Department of Defense, or the National Intelligence University.

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34 comments

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Zsari Maxim • 17 hours ago
Sure, every country in the world should develop nuclear weapon, let's just drop non-prolifteration altogether, not just in the northeast Asia. I bet the author would love that.

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Dossi Zsari Maxim • 9 hours ago
The author can't think past next meal.


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Mark Tucker • a day ago
James, why are you so sure that if North Korea collapsed the end result would be a reunification with the south? Korea is not Germany, and today is a different time to the end of the cold war in Europe.
Also is not like the US and China are that friendly that the US would not see a need to defend this new Korea from China. I find the idea that all US forces would then go home rather optimistic to say the least.
I cannot see China wanting to see the DMZ moved north to the Chinese Korean border.
It is at least just as possible that this event would result in China taking over North Korea. Either China would appoint a pawn who would do as he is told or the territory would be added to China.
Yes, North Korea's Nuclear program would be stopped, but that is probably the only positive from a South Korean perspective.
As far as South Korea and Japan going nuclear, the best leverage to get China to do something about North Korea would be the threat of this outcome. Tell them that a spread to Taiwan is also a possibility if you really want to give them nightmares.
The trick will be to ensure the threat does not become reality, giving China time to fix North Korea. Otherwise China may not react as you expect. Just look at the Chinese reaction to the proposed THAAD battery deployment to South Korea. It may think the only solution at this point is a strike first. Possibly justifying the use of nuclear weapons in their minds.

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stephen duval Mark Tucker • 13 hours ago
What makes you think that NKorea is not doing exactly what China wants. NK plays the madman that threatens Japan with nuclear weapons. It is not a coincidence that Pakistan threatens India with nuclear weapons.
During the cold war, the US nuclear umbrella for Europe was enhanced by the nuclear weapons in France and the UK. If the Russians invaded, even if the US chickened out, the French and British had their own soil to defend.
Japan, SK, and Taiwan going nuclear is not a negative for the US but a major positive. China would have to put all thought of military aggression aside. The US could continue to play a major role with a reduced budget.


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Mark Tucker stephen duval • 2 hours ago
The Chinese North Korean relationship has never been a typical client state relationship. North Korea has always been a difficult relationship for China to manage, mostly because North Korea does not accept being a junior partner to anybody. Just for good measure they are paranoid of being taken over by the Chinese.
It has suited China's interests for North Korea to act as a buffer to a US backed South Korea. So providing just enough support to prevent NK falling has been Chinese policy for a long time.
The bottom line is North Korea thinks China does not do enough to help them, and resents that perceived lack of support, thus China does not have the influence many like you think it does.

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peck Mark Tucker • 16 hours ago
If China does not want THADD deployed, they can stop the NK nuclear program. They have that ability. They should learn to negotiate.


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Zhuge Liang peck • 34 minutes ago
" they can stop the NK nuclear program. They have that ability."
An American lie designed to absolve the US of responsibility.
South Korea had plenty of options for missile defence, and they chose the one that is most threatening to China. Let them suffer the consequences.


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Jim Jatras • 12 hours ago
"American forces would likely leave Korea, not grow, once the Pyongyang regime collapses." You mean just like American forces left western Europe after the Warsaw Pact collapsed?
Quite to the contrary, Beijing has every reason to expect that if North Korea collapsed they would face American troops on the Yalu, on the same pattern that Washington expanded to fill the vacuum left by the Soviets by expanding NATO.
But congrats to Mr. Van de Velde for putting his finger on what is indeed the key issue. He just has the dynamic backwards. As things stand now, China has a vital incentive to hold its collective nose and prop up Pyongyang any way possible for as long as possible. If, however, the U.S. withdrew our forces and abrogated our defense treaty with Seoul (which may indeed decide to go nuclear at the point; ditto Tokyo), the prospect of a reunified, neutral Korea not aligned with an extra-Asian power (i.e., us) would be much more palatable. Rather than having an imperative to maintain the obscene Kim clan China would have reason, and perhaps the means, to help achieve a "soft landing" solution to the DPRK monstrosity.

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VVV • 11 hours ago
>the collapse of the North Korean regime would allow the Republic of Korea to absorb the North, thereby ending the entire reason U.S. forces are on the Peninsula
This nonsense again? Then why didn't all US forces retire from Europe after the collapse of the USSR? Who or what will prevent the Republic of Korea and the United States from changing their alliance in pretty much the same way NATO changed in the 1990s, aiming it explicitly against China?
On the point of nuclear proliferation, I would remind the author that you can't have your cake and eating it, promoting proliferation in East Asia while trying to achieve non-proliferation in the Middle East.

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Dossi VVV • 9 hours ago
Fool me once... fool me twice... Them Americans can't be trusted, too much lies, and author is either naive or underdeveloped intelligently.

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jstrong365 • 12 hours ago
What makes anyone think Japan wants to develop nuclear weapons? The nation is the only one in history to suffer a nuclear attack. Abhorrence of nuclear weapons is ingrained in the national DNA.
The only other statement that requires a rebuke is North Korea's missile defenses may prevent a retaliatory strike by the US. What the ? is he talking about. The US has GMD and it doesn't work. How many decades will it take the US to catch up to the vaunted North Korean missile defenses?
To defend against a nuclear attack, you just put some Aegis Cruisers in South Korean waters and knock ICBMs out of the sky during the boost phase. THAAD is being deployed which can provide point defense against short range missiles.
The author thinks he is in control of Japan's and South Korea's foreign policy and is playing war games in his bathtub. This is the most ridculous article published by TNI in years.

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Marathon-Youth • 14 hours ago
That also holds true of the Middle East.
Iran is becoming a nuclear armed nation. Israel is an established nuclear armed nation. Both pose an existential threat to the Arab world.
Then the logic used to support Japan and South Korea going nuclear is the same logic for the Arab nations to go nuclear.

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MeraAbhipraye Marathon-Youth • 14 hours ago
None of the Arab nations have technology at present to build nuclear weapons. However, Pakistan has those to counter Iran. Nukes in Pakistan are also very dangerous.


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TMark • a day ago
Author: "Nonproliferation zealots are making sure nuclear weapons now proliferate only to totalitarian states."
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This fits a pattern in international relations, in which less civilized nations are given a pass due to "the bigotry of low expectations." In many long-term conflicts there is an extra burden placed on the more civilized, more wealthy, more advanced nations to bend and accommodate the less civilized. The more advanced a state, the more it negotiates, therefore an expectation to bend first and give more.
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Much of this is derived from a class warfare viewpoint, or that colonialists bear extra responsibility for encroaching on perceived 'savage' cultures. This has created a worldview favoring "despot entitlement." Examples: Iran has learned it can secure billions in shipped paper currency by kidnapping Americans. Hamas in Gaza can launch rockets from a school's rooftop, but Israel can't respond to the launcher without international condemnation. North Korea is gradually building the ultimate entitlement status: nuclear blackmail.

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MeraAbhipraye TMark • 14 hours ago
Don't forget Pakistan. It is a country ran amok with Islamist jihadi nuts who are openly advocating use of Nuclear arms. It also has received billions in ransom money from the west on the past 10 years through various sorts of blackmailing.

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luke • a day ago
China will not protest that much if Japan or South Korean become nuclear capable overnight,but the west should fear more of that development than China should, imagine Japan nuclear bomb US for what it did to it in WW2 backstabbing is not an impossibility.
North Korea will neither abandone their nuclear program may be pause for a while if there seems to be peace other than the annual war rattling exercises.
To claim the US will likely leave South Korea anytime whether NK denuclearize or not is immaterial .The US will NEVER leave Korea because it wants to be seen as the world superpower having a permanent foothold in Asia

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luke Donny Wu • a day ago
Exactly Japan and South Korea do not have the means to oust the Americans if the latter does not want to leave. When one is much stronger and sees its presence serves its interest why would America want to exit. Mark my word Japan and South Korea will ALWAYS have the American military presence there whether they like it or not is not up to them .unification of the Koreas will only happen when the Americans leave simply because China will not let NK do so.


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woodpecker luke • 18 hours ago
According to the treaty signed by Japan and America, either party has the right to terminate the treaty. Let us quote Article X of The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan: "This Treaty shall remain in force until in the opinion of the Governments of Japan and the United States of America there shall have come into force such United Nations arrangements as will satisfactorily provide for the maintenance of international peace and security in the Japan area. However, after the Treaty has been in force for ten years, either Party may give notice to the other Party of its intention to terminate the Treaty, in which case the Treaty shall terminate one year after such notice has been given."
That is, Japan can ask the Americans to leave anytime after a one year notice. I think there is no such a thing as a perpetual agreement or treaty.


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Zsari Maxim woodpecker • 17 hours ago
If Japan can tear up its pacifist Constitution and develops nuclear weapon, what else would it not tear up.
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Random guy Donny Wu • a day ago
Yes, in reality Communists didn't win the Korean war. They won the Vietnamese war.


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TMark Donny Wu • a day ago
Yes, I agree. Shutting down Pyongyang and allowing Korean reunification would be interpreted within China as losing the Korean War 66 years after it started. The PLA is respected, politically strong, and has maintained a narrative that Korea was a PLA victory.
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It would seem the more likely option is for China to influence NK to deactivate its nuclear program, while allowing the Kim Jong Un regime a distracting victory elsewhere similar to the Cheonan naval sinking incident. Another alternative is to simply undercut Kim and allow NK to conduct their own regime change that is amenable to Beijing's demand to end nuclear development. These options are much less destabilizing than allowing Japan or SK to go nuclear.


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Zhuge Liang • 27 minutes ago
This author's views amount to nothing more than idle threats, childish hopes, assumptions, topped with a dangerously arrogant attitude towards nuclear strategy.
Literally nothing he says is backed up by evidence.
What is truly shortsighted is his blatant disregard for viewpoints which do not adhere to his views. But then it is always easier to dismiss other people as "foolish" rather than to think through the consequences of your actions.


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boonteetan • 9 hours ago
S Korea and Japan go nuclear? Very big "business". Goodness gracious.


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afhack62 • 11 hours ago
If China has a Grand Plan to dominate all of Asia not all of that effort is likely to be through its version of soft power. If it does have one its actions in the South China Sea are just first steps in this larger plan. China probably finds the NK regime noisome, but in the event of hostilities it's has that country figured into its GP. Knowing this, the NKs are exploiting their indulgence for all its worth, which to them amounts to a green light to do their worst.


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And you believe that why? • 12 hours ago
If everything follows the script it could work. The problem is what happens if any party decides not to play the game that way? I think it is more likely we would end up with 5 nuclear powers instead of 3 pointing missiles at each other.


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paoburen • 15 hours ago
East Asia is now nuclear. China, N Korea, and Russia all have nukes.
Deterrence works.


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Bobloblaw67 • 16 hours ago
The left has no problem with Iran and North Korea getting nuclear weapons but goes into a tizzy if Japan and South Korea devlope nuclear weapons


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The Dead Rabbits • 16 hours ago
Yes, a nuclear arms race in north-east Asia will be the price of China's long standing support for North Korea, and Beijing's consistent mendacity about "helping" keep the peninsula nuke-free. Maybe China's willing dupes in the west will wake up when there are nukes on all sides. Thank you Obama, Clinton, Rice, Medieros, Nye, Kerry et. al.


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rtn_dtn • a day ago
60 plus year has passed since the Korean conflict. NK lacks the ability to invade SK because of a much smaller population & antiquity military hardware for a conventional conflict. The threat of invasion is the other way around. NK has publicly announced willingness to abandon nuclear development in exchange for no invasion guarantee from US, the latter refused.
Van de Velde 's proposal is in fact a brilliant excuse to contain China with nuclear capable Japan & SK.
In a chess game, China may not play in the moves that James want. China may negotiate with Russia on a joint defense guarantee for NK if cause of NK invasion is initiated by US/SK. With such guarantee, NK may stop further nuke development and continually to provide a buffer for China. NK understands that her resources can be put to better use in economical development if threat from US on regime change is eliminated.


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Random guy rtn_dtn • a day ago
Defense guarantees mean nothing in modern day. Ukraine had the same guarantee in exchange of transfer of its Nuclear Arsenal. What happened now?

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stephen duval rtn_dtn • 12 hours ago
There is no threat of a US/SK invasion of NK.
China and Russia are already strategic partners with Iran as a junior member.
China also uses Pakistan to threaten India, its other major regional competitor.
A nuclear Japan, SK, and Taiwan would face a nuclear China, Russia, and NK, This would be good news for the US; it would greatly contribute to stability in NE Asia while the US military dominance declines.


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rtn_dtn stephen duval • 7 hours ago
Typical NeoCon talk, shouldn't be surprise,this is National Interest blog after all. U wouldn't be Sanders or Trump supporter.


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stephen duval rtn_dtn • 4 hours ago
Trump does not want the US to be the policeman for the world anymore.
Allowing Japan, SK, and Taiwan to defend themselves from potential aggressors makes it possible for the US to reduce its posture and for allies to increase their contribution to their own defense.
Trump/Pence 2016


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rtn_dtn stephen duval • 4 hours ago
I see, good, let whoever want nuke develop it & we withdraw from being world policeman without pay.
trump/pence '16


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Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
I posted most of this on another thread, adding it here too.



Joseph Miller Retweeted
Yury Barmin ‏@yurybarmin 24m24 minutes ago

Russian Foreign Ministry says that all military contacts on Syria between Moscow and Washington have been suspended http://tass.com/politics/903761



Conflict News ‏@Conflicts 9m9 minutes ago

BREAKING: Contacts between Russian and US military on Syria suspended: diplomat - TASS

http://tass.com/politics/903761



posted for fair use
http://tass.com/politics/903761

Contacts between Russian and US military on Syria suspended — diplomat
Russian Politics & Diplomacy

October 03, 15:43 UTC+3

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov however noted that Russia was trying to agree with the US on resumption of truce in Syria


More:
http://tass.com/politics/903761

© AP Photo/Vladimir Isachenkov

Read also
Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman
Refusing diplomacy on Syria may result in full-scale war — Russian Foreign Ministry

MOSCOW, October 3./TASS/. Exchange of information between Russian and US military has stopped of late despite Moscow’s commitment, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said on Monday.

"All contacts between the military have been stopped of late, there has been no exchange of information," he said.

Gatilov however noted that Russia was trying to agree with the US on resumption of truce in Syria.

"We are trying to agree with Americans on resumption of truce in Syria," Gatilov said.

He said it has not been done yet despite regular contacts between the Russian and US top diplomats.

"Although what has been written in the September 9 document gives a good opportunity to get the process of Syrian settlement moving," Gatilov said.

He stressed that the Russian side was not discussing with the US the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"We are not discussing this issue - the fate of Assad, with them," the diplomat said.

Read also
Russian operation in Syria: one year on

France's UNSC resolution

According to the diplomat, Moscow is not going to to back France’s politicized resolution on Aleppo in the UN Security Council. Moscow plans to submit amendments to France’s draft resolution on Syria.

"This draft invites a lot of questions from us. Literally on Friday or Saturday, France once again pushed its draft resolution on humanitarian situation in Aleppo," he said.

"We are fundamentally against such politicized moves, aimed at using the UN Security Council for putting additional pressure on Syria and Russia. We regard this move by France as one more among these actions," Gatilov said.

"Humanitarian tragedies begin to erupt each time the situation on the ground changes," he said. "We remember well that before Aleppo our Western counterparts brought different situations to the forefront. When they were resolved, different issues cropped up."

"Regrettably, humanitarian tragedies, which are really present on Syrian soil, are being used for political purposes in order to advance one’s own agenda. We believe this is absolutely unacceptable. These issues must be addressed in a constructive fashion.

According to the deputy minister, establishment of any new Syria monitoring mechanism is currently out of the question.

"[France’s draft resolution on Aleppo] has a proposal to create a certain monitoring of fulfillment of humanitarian commitments," Gatilov said in response to a question from TASS.

"But creating some monitoring again with an unclear mandate and goals - why should it be done? Geneva has a task force on humanitarian issues, which discusses these issues, the situation with humanitarian access etc.," he said.
Humanitarian pauses in Aleppo

The official pointed out that Russia was prepared for restoring two-day humanitarian pauses near Aleppo for letting through humanitarian convoys.

"Our military are ready for introducing 48-hour-long humanitarian pauses near Aleppo," he said.


More:
http://tass.com/politics/903761
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
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http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...s_in_afghanistans_north_and_south_110160.html

Taliban Launch Attacks in Afghanistan's North and South

By Rahim Faiez & Mirwais Khan
October 03, 2016

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The Taliban launched two large-scale assaults in Afghanistan on Monday, attacking the northern city of Kunduz from several directions and killing a police chief in the southern Helmand province, where they threatened to overrun a district.

Officials described well-planned operations, involving large numbers of gunmen who attacked under cover of darkness. Elsewhere in Afghanistan, attacks on civilians and soldiers claimed at least seven more lives on Monday.

The attacks came as President Ashraf Ghani left for Brussels for an international aid conference, where he expects donors to pledge $3 billion a year through 2020.

The Taliban briefly seized Kunduz city a year ago and held off Afghan security forces, backed by U.S. troops and air power, for several days. Mahmood Danish, spokesman for the Kunduz provincial governor, said security forces managed to fend off Monday's assault.

The Interior Ministry said a policeman was killed and four were wounded in the ongoing fighting. A ministry statement said the situation was being monitored in case reinforcements are needed.

Kunduz province is a breadbasket region that borders Tajikistan to the north and sits on a major crossroad in the country. The fall of the city last year marked the Taliban's first capture of an urban center since the group was driven from power in 2001. Kunduz came under threat again in April, when U.S.-backed Afghan forces pushed the Taliban back into surrounding districts.

The U.S. military spokesman in Afghanistan, Brig. Gen. Charles Cleveland, said the Kunduz situation "remained fluid," with "increased Taliban activity within the area."
"U.S. forces have multiple assets and enablers in the area to provide support," Cleveland said.

Mohammad Yusouf Ayubi, head of the Kunduz provincial council, said the heavy battles had forced government offices, schools and shops to close. He said parts of the city were empty and highways to the south and east were closed.

Some residents claimed the Taliban had taken control of the city, after fighters hoisted their white flag in the main square. But Amruddin Wali, a member of the provincial council, said security forces still control the airport, police headquarters, provincial government offices and the intelligence agency.

"Intense fighting is going on right now at the governor's compound and the NDS (intelligence agency) office," he said.

Defense Ministry spokesman Dawlat Waziri said Afghan forces had launched airstrikes on Taliban positions, and were carrying out offensive operations outside the city.

"I totally reject claims that the Taliban have taken over Kunduz city," he said, adding that the insurgents had captured an area to the west.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed the insurgents had captured several checkpoints in the city.

Doctors Without Borders had planned a memorial service on Monday for the victims of the U.S. military bombing of their hospital in Kunduz a year ago, during the fighting with the Taliban, but the ceremony was cancelled, the international charity said.

In the southern province of Helmand, insurgents attacked a police headquarters in Naway district, killing the local police chief.

Afzel Khan, a policeman who survived the attack, said a suicide car bomber hit the compound around 2.30 a.m., blasting through the gate and allowing gunmen in afterward.

Provincial spokesman Omar Zwak said police chief Ahmad Shah Khan was killed. Zwak couldn't confirm other casualties and denied the district had fallen to the Taliban.

Other Afghan officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said at least 10 policemen were killed in the attack and another 20 wounded. The figures could not be officially confirmed.

Zwak said the Taliban had also attacked Helmand's Nad Ali district, but he had no further details.

Elsewhere on Monday, an Afghan soldier was killed and three were wounded when a bicycle bomb targeted an army vehicle in the capital, said Sadiq Muradi, a Kabul police official. No group immediately claimed responsibility for that bombing.

In the northern Jawzjan province, at least six people were killed and around 45 wounded when a bomb rigged to a motorcycle was detonated by remote control in a busy shopping district, according to Mohammad Reza Ghafori, the provincial governor's spokesman.
___
Khan reported from Kandahar, Afghanistan. Associated Press writers Lynne O'Donnell and Karim Sharifi in Kabul, Afghanistan, contributed to this report.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.stripes.com/news/us-bombing-in-libya-intensifies-1.432151

US bombing in Libya intensifies

By JOHN VANDIVER | STARS AND STRIPES
Published: October 3, 2016

STUTTGART, Germany — U.S. warplanes bombarded Islamic State group targets Sunday in Libya, knocking out a command and control facility, nearly 70 enemy fighting positions and several other sites in what was the heaviest day of bombing since the two-month-old operation began, according to U.S. Africa Command data.

In all, 20 airstrikes were launched Sunday as the Operation Odyssey Lightening campaign in Libya headed into its third month, bringing the total number of strikes to 201.

AFRICOM is targeting an increasingly small area in the coastal city of Sirte, which is the focus of the U.S. mission in Libya. The airstrikes are in support of an offensive by ground forces aligned with the internationally backed Libyan government.

A few months ago, Islamic State fighters were in control of large parts of the city, where several thousand fighters were holed up. Since the offensive, those numbers are estimated to be about 200, according to the U.S. military.

Last month, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Islamic State fighters had been pushed into a single neighborhood in Sirte.

AFRICOM began its mission in Libya on Aug. 1. It has involved airstrikes by jets operating from the USS Wasp, positioned off the Libyan coast, together with occasional assaults from Marine attack helicopters.

During the month of August, 108 strikes were launched. The pace of operations slowed slightly in September, with a total of 80 strikes.

October, however, has started at a rapid pace, with one strike on Saturday followed by 20 on Sunday. Besides hitting enemy fighting positions and a command and control facility, an operational facility and a site for making car bombs were eliminated, according to AFRICOM’s strike report.

After Moammar Gadhafi was toppled in 2011, Libya plunged into chaos, with rival militias battling for territory and a fragile national government struggling to assert itself and achieve unity.

Many of those militias sprouted up as local defense forces during the Arab Spring uprising against Gadhafi. After the uprising succeeded, the militias refused to hand over weapons and flourished in the chaos.

The Islamic State group has also sought to exploit the chaos in Libya to build a sanctuary in the oil-rich country, which is awash in weaponry and only 300 miles across the Mediterranean from Europe.

The U.S. decision to conduct strikes in Libya came after months of deliberations and a formal request for support from the Libyan government.

vandiver.john@stripes.com
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
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AFRICOM masks military operations in Somalia as ‘self defense strikes’

By Bill Roggio | October 1, 2016 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio
Comments 4

The US military continues to classify combat operations against Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in Somalia, as “self-defense strikes,” even though many of the incidents reported, such as the targeting of training camps and raids in Shabaab-held territory, are clearly offensive in nature. United States African Command, or AFRICOM, has now launched two*so-called self-defense strikes against Shabaab in three days.

“During a Somali-led counterterrorism operation to disrupt an al-Shabaab Improvised Explosive Device (IED) making network, a group of armed al-Shabaab fighters attacked, threatening the safety and security of the Somali force and their US advisors,” AFRICOM said in a press release.

“Somali forces returned fire in self-defense,” AFRICOM continued. “The US conducted a self-defense strike to neutralize the threat, killing nine enemy fighters.”

The operation took place in Galcayo, more than 430 miles north of Mogadishu. AFRICOM dismissed reports that civilians were killed in the strike.

“We have assessed all credible evidence and determined those reports are incorrect,” AFRICOM stated.

The strike is the second of its kind in Somalia in three days. On Sept. 26, AFRICOM launched another “self-defense strike” against Shabaab forces in Caba near Kismayo. AFRICOM said it killed four fighters during a counterterrorism operation, but did not discuss the target of the raid. Press reporting indicates that the Somali and US forces raided Shabaab training camps. [See Threat Matrix report, US launches ‘self-defense strike’ against Shabaab in southern Somalia.]

AFRICOM’s attempts to mask direct combat operations against Shabaab targets such as training camps and IED factories as advise and assist missions whitewashes the more than 10-year-old war that the Somali government, the African Union, and the United States has waged against al Qaeda’s branch in Somalia. This year, AFRICOM announced nine “self-defense strikes” and “defensive fires” missions in Somalia. The Department of Defense has even justified airstrikes on Shabaab training camps, such as the one in Raso on March 5, 2016, as defensive operations.

The US military has been launching airstrikes and naval bombardments, as well as special operations raids against Shabaab and its predecessor, the Islamic Courts Union, since 2006. Many of these raids were in direct support of military operations, such as airstrikes and naval bombardments in 2007 and that supported Ethiopia’s invasion to depose the Islamic Courts Union.

The Long War Journal has recorded 29 such operations against Shabaab and the Islamic Courts since 2006 (see list below). The number of US military operations in Somalia may well be higher, however, it has been difficult to track strikes against Shabaab as there are multiple actors involved in targeting the group, including Kenya and Ethiopian. The US military has not released statements for each encounter. Additionally, for a long period of time, Iranian news outlets muddied the waters by attributing every nearly every action against Shabaab in southern Somalia as a US drone strike. Verifiable press reporting has also been inconsistent.

AFRICOM has loosely defined targets such as IED facilities and training camps as “counterterrorism operations,” when in reality these are military operations since they are often launched against hardened or well-defended targets in areas under direct Shabaab control. Like other al Qaeda branches, Shabaab controls a significant amount of territory and operates a military, intelligence and services, and governs areas it controls. AFRICOM planners are clearly aware of this, and, as the last two missions attest, air assets were on station to quickly strike Shabaab fighters.

AFRICOM has admitted that it is conducting military operations in areas governed by Shabaab, and yet labels these operations as self-defense missions.

US operations targeting Shabaab since the beginning of 2007:
Sept. 28, 2016 – US forces kill nine Shabaab fighters during a raid on a Shabaab IED factory near Galcayo.

Sept. 26, 2016 – US forces kill four Shabaab fighters during raids on training camps near Kismayo.

Sept. 5, 2016 – The US launched two “self-defense strikes” near Tortoroow after a large Shabaab force attacked a “a Somali-led counterterrorism operation.” Four Shabaab fighters were killed.

Aug. 30, 2016 – US forces killed two Shabaab fighters after they attacked a Somali counterterrorism force near Gobanale.

June 21, 2016 – US troops “conducted a self-defense strike against Shabaab, killing three. The operation was conducted after it was assessed the terrorists were planning and preparing to conduct an imminent attack against US forces.”

May 31, 2016 – Somali troops, backed by US forces, killed Shabaab member Mohammed Dulyadeen, a.k.a. Mohammed Kuno and Kuno Gamadere, during an operation near Gaduud.

May 27, 2016 – The US killed Abdullahi Haji Da’ud, “a senior military commander” for Shabaab, in south-central Somalia.

May 13, 2016 – The US launched “defensive fire missions” which “took place in remote locations in Somalia under al-Shabaab control.”

May 12, 2016 – The US launched “defensive fire missions” which “took place in remote locations in Somalia under al-Shabaab control.”

May 12, 2016 – The US launched “defensive fire missions” which “took place in remote locations in Somalia under al-Shabaab control.”

May 9, 2016 – The US launched “defensive fire missions” which “took place in remote locations in Somalia under al-Shabaab control.”

March 31, 2016 – The US killed Hassan Ali Dhoore, a dual hatted al Qaeda and Shabaab leader who also served in the Amniyat, in an airstrike.

March 10, 2016 – US special operations forces targeted a Shabaab training camp in Awdigle raid.

March 5, 2016 – The US military announced that it launched an airstrike which targeted a Shabaab’s “Raso Camp” north of the Somali capital of Mogadishu. The US justified the strike on al Qaeda’s official East African branch by saying that fighters there “posed an imminent threat.” More than 150 Shabaab fighters are said to have been killed.

Dec. 2, 2015 – US killed Abdirahman Sandhere, a.k.a. Ukash, a senior Shabaab leader, and two other “associates” in an airstrike.

March 12, 2015 – The US military confirmed that it killed Adan Garaar, a senior official in the Amniyat and “a key operative responsible for coordinating al-Shabaab’s external operations” in a drone strike.

Feb. 3, 2015 – US troops targeted and killed Yusuf Dheeq, the head of the Amniyat.

Dec. 29, 2014 – US forces killed Tahlil Abdishakur, the leader of the Amniyat, in an airstrike in Somalia

Sept. 1, 2014 – The US military killed Ahmed Godane, the co-founder of and emir of Shabaab, also known as Sheikh Mukhtar Abu Zubayr, in an airstrike south of Mogadishu.

Jan. 25, 2014 – A US airstrike killed Sahal Iskudhuq, a senior Shabaab commander who served as a high-ranking member of the Amniyat.

Oct. 23, 2013 – A US drone strike killed Anta Anta “the mastermind of al Shabab’s suicide missions.”

Oct. 5, 2013 – US special Operations Forces targeted Shabaab’s external operations chief Abdulkadir Mohamed Abdulkadir (Ikrima), but fails to capture or kill him. A Swedish and a Sudanese Shabaab fighter were killed.

January 2012 – A US airstrike killed Bilal al Berjawi, a British national of Lebanese descent.

September 2009 – US special operations forces killed Saleh ali Nabhan, a top al Qaeda and Shabaab leader who was involved in the Kenya and Tanzania bombings

May 2008 – A US airstrike killed senior Shabaab and al Qaeda leader Aden Hashi Ayro.

March 2008 – A US airstrike targeted a safe house in Somalia.

Spring 2008 – The US killed Aden Hashi Ayro and Sheikh Muhyadin Omar in an airstrike in the spring of 2008. Before his death, Ayro was the leader of Shabaab.

June 2007 – US targeted Saleh ali Nabhan, a top al Qaeda and Shabaab leader who was involved in the Kenya and Tanzania bombings

January 2007 – The US military targeted Abu Taha al-Sudani (or Tariq Abdullah), Qaeda’s leader in East Africa, and either Fazul Abdullah Mohammed and Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, both who . Fazul is al Qaeda’s operations chief for East Africa, while Sudani is the chief strategist and ideologue. Sudani is thought to have been killed in that airstrike (Shabaab said he was killed in an airstrike in 2007.)

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of The Long War Journal.

--

4 Comments
IronV says:
October 1, 2016 at 9:34 pm
Outstanding. I don’t care how they label these strikes as long as they continue to aggressively execute them. The only way we’re going to manage the cancer of radical Islam is with the strategy of “advise and assist and kick ass when necessary.”
Reply

pre-Boomer Marine brat says:
October 1, 2016 at 9:41 pm
According to your chronology, the “defensive” (cough) wording appears to have begun this year. Might AFRICOM’s terminology be directed toward the White House. In other words, since the WH wants to disengage America militarily in the ME and the Horn, is the “defensive” claim necessary in order to get WH approval? Might it be AFRICOM’s way of covering its political tail in the closing days of this Administration?
Reply

Evan says:
October 2, 2016 at 1:59 am
Designating such operations as “self defense,” is dishonest, at best, and in my thinking must be attributed to the political climate/political correctness, as it’s certainly not connected to the reality on the ground.

These missions are offensive in nature, they’re meant to destroy and degrade Shabaabs’ abilities to train fighters, deploy suicide bombers/ieds, etc.

To think that our military, or any military or any other organized group of fighting men, could infiltrate deep into Shabaab controlled territory, and then engage in operations such as destroying training camps and facilities, or bomb making factories, or any other significant enemy asset, without in turn being engaged forcefully by the enemy is pure foolishness.

Of course they anticipated being attacked, which is evidenced by the presence of air assets on station.. These missions are thoroughly planned, and contingencies for situations wherein US advisors are threatened with annihilation are appropriately included, obviously.

I have no problem or issue whatsoever with US forces taking the fight to AQ, where ever we find them. I’m pleased that our brave fighting men are able to provide serious assets and act as invaluable combat multipliers when teamed with our African partners. I’m displeased that the U.S. gov, and higher military headquarters administration chooses to engage in “word games,” when it comes to taking the fight to the enemy.

There is absolutely no realistic or reasonable purpose for labeling these missions as “self defense.”

At least, not any that are grounded in reality.
Reply

laurent le bloa says:
October 2, 2016 at 6:37 am
It’is easier to speak about antiterrorist operation than about military operations. For Shabaabs terror attacks are clearly a way to wage war and the war a way of commiting acts of terrors against the population. As the movement Shabaab is less and less in measure to lead military operations it launches terror acts and murders campaign. Even if the organization is structured with militias and terrorist cells, training, movment of cells, the organization of attacks, combined attacks, explosive car laden followed by assault… make that there is however always a link between militias and terrorist cells. These two aspects must be together treated. US Forces involvment in military operations in Somalia is necessary to counter terror threat.United Kingdom thinks the same way.
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Housecarl

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/art...merging_pentapolar_nuclear_system_110157.html

Re-Imagining Conflict: Asia’s Emerging "Pentapolar" Nuclear System

By Paul Bracken
October 03, 2016

This article originally appeared in the current issue of Global Asia vol. 11, no. 3, Fall 2016.*Visit the Global Asia website
*
Given the historic period of prolonged peace in East Asia since 1979, it would be tempting to conclude that this part of the world has escaped the risk of major power war.

But the build-up of military capabilities among major powers in the region, four of which possess nuclear weapons, suggests otherwise. This regional arms race is a major concern. Paul Bracken unpacks the implications of this rising threat, and why the next 10 years are critical.

A major power system of war is forming in Asia.* It’s easy to miss this structure, because it is in the early years of formation, and most attention is focused on the details of Asia’s missiles, submarines, and aircraft.* But this view of Asian security is like looking through a straw.* One sees interesting features, yes, but it overlooks the bigger picture.* Stepping back and taking a broader look, we see that an interrelated nuclear system is forming based on the strategic postures of China, Russia, India, and the United States, plus the missile defenses for Japan.* These five major powers make up Asia’s “pentapolar” nuclear system described in this essay.

Over the next decade, this system may tend toward slow change, risk avoidance and conservative behavior – much as the war system of the first nuclear age did.* Or it may change in dynamic, goal-seeking and innovative ways.* A framework is needed to understand and organize these possibilities, because we can’t say for sure which direction it will go because the Asian nuclear system is just too new, and too dissimilar from the structure of the first nuclear age.

Asia’s new missiles, submarines, and other weapons systems could be interpreted merely as “routine” nuclear modernization by China, India, Russia and the US.* But my thesis in this essay is that a “routine modernization” theory offers an inadequate conceptualization of the deep structural change now occurring, and of the growing risks this has for the world order.* It is more deeply embedded in the new Asian political order than any business-as-usual modernization suggests.* And the risks of something going wrong, whether from strategic miscalculation, bad luck or sloppy thinking, are so great that this subject requires a lot more sober attention than it has received.

The Next Ten Years Are Critical

A 10-year time frame is critical because of a confluence of trends in strategic force deployments and modernization.* US nuclear modernization is only now beginning, and many people debate whether it will happen at all.* But over the next 10 years, it will be obvious that it is taking place, and more, that it will not be a simple recreation of the “1975 system.”* By this I mean a two-power nuclear world where narrow counterforce and countervalue arguments frame the debate.* Over the next 10 years, it will be obvious that Asia’s nuclear modernization is shaping US modernization, and that we are never returning to an international order where only two countries matter when it comes to nuclear weapons. The US will be drawn into Asia’s nuclear modernization in ways that may not be appreciated today, but will be impossible to ignore in a few years.

Then there is modernization in Russia, China and India.* While Russian nuclear forces get a great deal of attention, China and India over the next few years will get a lot more.* Both are deploying new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).* Both are deploying nuclear triads, a force structure made up of missiles, submarines, and aircraft.* And both are set to equip their missiles with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), including their submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).* Their postures are looking a lot like the American force of the 1960s and 1970s.*

As Asia’s nuclear modernization proceeds, conventional-nuclear thresholds will become brighter red lines than they are now.* In short, US conventional forces will be seen increasingly in a nuclear context.* This question isn’t widely noticed today, but over the next few years it will be.

The nuclear forces of the secondary powers are also growing, and depending on the case, will become a de facto characteristic of international relations, even if they are not accepted in an official way.* The focus of this essay is on the war system of the major powers.* North Korea, Pakistan, Israel, and Iran are not major powers, but they are sources of nuclear instability.* Their forces will grow to a point that it will change how the world thinks about the nuclear order.* Today, this is still in terms of nuclear nonproliferation and US extended deterrence.* But it will become increasingly clear that the world is, indeed, in a second nuclear age.* We are not going back to the world of 1975.

We are in the early stages of a nuclear regime that is just getting started, much as in the late 1940s and 1950s, when the groundwork of the first nuclear age was established. Conventions, red lines, doctrine and policy were worked out at that time – with enduring political consequences.* Over the next 10 years, the foundations of a second nuclear age will take shape, with consequences that we must start thinking about now.

Asia’s Pentapolar System

All multipolar systems have a hierarchy of power and status.* Nuclear multipolarity is no different.* In my book on the second nuclear age, I argued that when it comes to nuclear weapons, this hierarchy matters a great deal.[1]* It’s not just that some countries get the bomb –that’s nuclear proliferation.* The bigger issue is the larger system produced from the spread of the bomb, one made up of major powers, secondary powers and subnational groups, what I call the MSG framework.* A “major” power here is defined by wealth and technology.* The key idea is that while nine countries in the world have nuclear weapons today, international relations among them are quite different depending on which group a country is in.* The US treats Russia and China very differently from the way it does North Korea or Israel.* India, likewise, deals differently with China than it does with Pakistan.

This essay focuses on the strategic interactions of major powers in Asia.* Think of these as a five-sided polygon.* Each vertex is a country:* China, Russia, India, Japan and the US.* Japan is the odd man out, since it is not a nuclear-weapons state, though it is a major power.* Nonetheless, I would argue that it is part of the developing Asian nuclear system.* This is because the US has guaranteed Japan’s security with its own nuclear arms.* Further, Japan is a nuclear threshold state.* If it chose to develop nuclear weapons, it could do so in short order, and in a fairly impressive way.* Finally, US missile defense in Asia is designed to protect Japan (and South Korea) from nuclear attack but these defenses also blunt China’s growing force of missiles.* All of these reasons pull Japan into Asia’s nuclear orbit.

While a country can be a major power without nuclear arms, like Japan, the correlation is pretty high between possession of nuclear arms and being a major power.* For example, it is hard to see how China could have gone through its meteoric rise to major power status had it not also been a nuclear power.* The use of China to offset the Soviet Union in the 1980s would have been impossible and China couldn’t operate in the league of great powers if it didn’t have a nuclear deterrent.* Today, for example, it would make little sense for China to modernize its overall military, absent a serious nuclear component.*

India also illustrates the association between major power status and nuclear arms.* After its 1998 nuclear tests, the US sharply condemned India.* Sanctions were imposed and there were demands for India to sign the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear state, which would have meant giving up nuclear weapons and allowing intrusive inspections.* “Soft” power was used to try and roll back the Indian bomb program.* I recall a meeting in 1998 where a prominent journalist told me that international companies and banks would force India to do just this.* The credit rating agencies had cut India’s debt rating because of the sanctions, and this was supposedly going to force India into such economic chaos that Delhi would have to give up the bomb.*

But when was the last time anyone seriously proposed that India sign the NPT? President Barack Obama’s 2009 address in Prague called for a world free of nuclear weapons, yet somehow India was left out of the equation, since Washington signed a commercial nuclear power deal with Delhi, removing sanctions and freeing up India to make as many bombs as it liked.

India is now a legitimate, recognized nuclear-weapons state, NPT fictions to the contrary.* Moreover, India’s nuclear weapons are deeply linked to its new major power position.* Without nuclear arms, India could play nothing like the strategic offset role to China that it does in US policy.* It would depend on the US or Russia for defense against China, something that would never be accepted by India’s leaders.* And as Charles de Gaulle once put it, without the bomb, France wouldn’t get invited to arms control conferences.* And neither would India.* Given that we are in a second nuclear age, one could expect that there will be many such meetings in the future.*

A multipolar system like the one developing in Asia naturally lends itself to changes in power relationships.* If one or more countries – the vertices of the polygon – build up their military power, the others can respond in a number of different ways.* They could do nothing, and simply live with the new power imbalance.* Or they might opt for a closer coalition in order to share resources, intelligence or technology.* Building up one’s own military is another obvious response.*

382300_5_.png

http://images.rcp.realclearpolitics.com/382300_5_.png

Military Interactions

Asia’s nuclear interactions can be usefully considered in terms of different axes that are now “connecting” the vertices in the pentapolar structure.* These are US-Japan missile defenses, India’s missile modernization with respect to China and how Asian nuclear modernization affects US-Russian nuclear stability.

US missile defenses impact China’s strategic posture.* China’s military buildup in missiles is the backbone of its whole modernization program.* As a force by itself, it’s a very impressive thing, larger now than the Soviet missile threat against Europe during the Cold War.* Unlike that force, however, which was mostly unguided and slow reacting, China’s is equipped with precision-strike technology, rapid retargeting and agility.* In the 1970s, the Soviet force underwrote a “hostage Europe” strategy with political and military implications.* In a crisis, it was impossible to overlook, in peacetime, it was “always there,” and this influenced diplomacy.

The Chinese have a far larger intermediate-range missile force than the Soviets ever had against Europe with both conventional and nuclear punch that allows for accurate strikes.* And it is getting hard not to notice.* For one thing, it gives good reason not to allow a crisis, say over the “new” islands in the South China Sea, to get too far out of hand.* It pushes crisis avoidance on the US and Japan, as China expands its island construction program and other territorial claims.

US missile defense strategically entangles the US and Japan with China, and it does so in the upper reaches of the escalation ladder.* Chinese missiles destroyed by US anti-missile missiles would mean fewer landing on Japan or other targets.* But active US missile defense would immediately bring the US into war with China.* From a deterrence viewpoint, this means a great deal.* For one thing, it offsets many of the advantages China gained from building these missiles in the first place.* For another, it drives conflict to lower levels of escalation where there is more room for maneuver. It also forces China to confront the fact that it faces several nuclear fronts.* India’s new ICBMs and SLBMs with MIRV warheads matter here.* Over the next 10 years, they will give India a lot more striking power.* They put pressure on China, because Beijing has to think through what a war with the US would mean when it is surrounded by nuclear missiles from three states (the US, India and Russia), and missile defenses around Japan.*

India’s MIRVs add to Japanese security for this reason.* In 10 years, India’s MIRVed missiles could destroy 10-25 of the largest Chinese cities.* China will have no defense against this.* If India gets a hydrogen bomb, this destructive capacity reaches a higher degree of certainty.* This adds to deterrence against China, psychologically if not militarily, because in any big war with the US and Japan, China will know that its military would be so destroyed that it would be vulnerable to any state with undamaged nuclear forces.* In other words, China won’t be able to get out of such a conflict with anything remotely like a win.

Another axis for military interaction is forming between the US and Russia in this system.* Henry Kissinger has picked up on it, observing that at some point the nuclear forces of China and India will have to be considered in the calculations of nuclear stability between the US and Russia.[2]* Exactly when this occurs depends on the details, but by my estimate it is within the 10-year scope of this essay.* Indeed, it’s one of the reasons the next 10 years are so critical.

The nuclear balance that has been thought of for seven decades as a US-Russian matter is thus going to change in the next decade.* China and India can upset the US-Russian stability calculation.* There will have to be a widening of the debate about nuclear weapons and the international order to include multipolar stability.* Here, all of the powers involved are Asian.* This by itself will have considerable psychological and political implications.*

Nuclear Diplomacy

Asia’s pentapolar system has another dimension, diplomacy and crisis management.* Game theory offers some useful insights into this.* Stability in a multipolar system depends on the power of the countries in it, and also on the coalitions they form.* If Russia were to join China in joint strategic targeting, this would present serious challenges to the US, for example.

Nuclear diplomacy in the second nuclear age, therefore, is likely going to be about splitting coalitions, preventing them from forming, and bolstering ones that are favorable.*

Looked at this way, the greatest sources of instability do not come from counterforce improvements – i.e. from missile accuracy improvements.* Rather, they arise from imbalances in power among coalitions.* The best way to stabilize a multipolar system is often to transfer strategic information to bolster the strength of one of the other vertices.

Let’s consider a historical example of this in a tripolar system.* When US President Richard Nixon went to China in 1972, his assistant, Henry Kissinger, carried with him the nuclear order of battle for Soviet forces in the Far East.[3]* Kissinger gave this information to the Chinese, including the type of Soviet weapons, yield, range – and location.* Photographs and maps of weapons also were provided.* In short, the US gave China targeting information for Soviet nuclear forces.

This information transfer stabilized the tripolar nuclear world of the 1970s, which involved the US, the Soviet Union and China.* Information transfer for nuclear stability is much more important today. In the 1970s, nearly all nuclear weapons on land were in fixed sites.* Some missiles were mobile, but even these were mostly dug in and protected.*

Over the last 20 years, this has changed.* The backbone of nuclear forces in Asia today is made up of land-based mobile missiles.* Russia, China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, Iran and Israel all use mobile missiles.* Only the US doesn’t.

Cyber technologies are making the hunt for mobile missiles faster, better and cheaper.[4]* As a result, the hunt for mobile missiles will be the next great phase of the arms race in Asia.* This means that counterforce attacks can take out nuclear forces using only conventional weapons.* From a crisis stability point of view, this is extremely unfortunate.* How the Asian pentapolar system handles the vulnerability of the secondary nuclear states in Asia is likely to be one of the greatest challenges of the next 10 years.* The major powers need to think through stability in this very different technological landscape.

Conclusion

A five-power nuclear system is taking shape in Asia.* Whether it veers off into arms races or toward crisis instability will be one of the most important questions of the world order.* An important source of stability in this system is that all the major powers in it believe that nuclear war is unthinkable.* Nonetheless, this nuclear war system for Asia continues to be built.* This contradiction between attitudes about nuclear war and the stark fact that nuclear war systems are getting built, needs to be recognized.* Nations are acting as if major nuclear power war isn’t possible – just as they field weapons for this very purpose.*

The thesis of this paper is that these weapons have reached such a level that a larger interactive system of Asian nuclear powers is taking shape.* Absent a sober, big-picture understanding of this fantastic set of developments, we risk sleepwalking into serious dangers.* Understanding the structures and possible stability trajectories of the system is a necessary first step if we are ever to steer it in a positive direction.

Paul Bracken is professor of management and political science at Yale University.

ENDNOTES:
[1] Paul Bracken, The Second Nuclear Age, Strategy, Danger, and the New Power Politics (New York: Times Books, 2012), pp. 94-5.
[2] Henry Kissinger, World Order (New York: Penguin Press, 2014), p. 339.
[3] Bracken, Second Nuclear Age, pp. 197-201.
[4] See Paul Bracken, “The Cyber Threat to Nuclear Stability,” Orbis, Spring 2016.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/30/opini...-weapons-stop-war-kugelman-opinion/index.html

Kashmir conflict: Do nuclear weapons prevent all-out war?

By Michael Kugelman
Updated 3:16 PM ET, Fri September 30, 2016

Video

Michael Kugelman is senior associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the writer.

(CNN)It's safe to say that India-Pakistan relations are nearly on a war footing.

Saber rattling has been near constant in recent weeks after terrorists -- from Pakistan, according to India -- stormed an Indian military base in India-controlled Kashmir and killed 18 soldiers. India's home minister denounced Pakistan as a "terrorist state." Pakistan's defense minister threatened nuclear war.

Then came Thursday, when India claimed to have carried out a "surgical strike" across the border into Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. The operation, according to the Indian government and military, targeted terrorist "launch pads" and killed several dozen militants. New Delhi's detailed (and perhaps exaggerated) account said the operation lasted four hours. If true, it arguably would have been the most audacious incursion onto Pakistani soil since US Special Forces stormed Osama Bin Laden's compound.

US, UN urge calm after new Kashmir flareup 02:34

Pakistan angrily denied that this strike had happened, contending that India had merely engaged in cross-border firing (killing two Pakistani troops) -- a frequent occurrence on the volatile frontier. Pakistan nonetheless vowed to undertake a "forceful response" if such an incident occurred again. India has evacuated villagers from several border areas in anticipation of possible Pakistani retaliation.

With both sides banging the war drums, it may be tempting to fear that all-out conflict isn't far away.

The good news, however, is that a hot war between the nuclear-armed nemeses remains an unlikely prospect.

Nukes are often cited as the chief deterrent to all-out war, and for good reason.

Pakistan refuses to adopt a no first-use policy, which means it could hypothetically respond to India's use of conventional military force with a nuclear strike. This is no empty threat. Pakistan, according to estimates from experts in August, has between 110 and 130 nuclear warheads and is described as boasting "the world's fastest-growing nuclear stockpile." Most critically, it is emphasizing the production of tactical nuclear weapons, which are meant for actual battlefield use.

India, meanwhile, boasts about 100 to 120 nuclear warheads. It has no known plans to develop tactical nukes. And it has adopted a strict no first-use policy.

Last year, Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhary stated explicitly that his country could use tactical nukes as a response to India's Cold Start doctrine -- a strategy (albeit one not yet formally incorporated into Indian military doctrine) that calls for limited conventional uses of force in Pakistan.

Chaudhary's announcement suggested that India would not need to go far to run up against Pakistan's nuclear red lines. The implication was that even the limited use of force could trigger a Pakistani nuclear response.

And yet India's cross-border strike Thursday suggests that India has more room to maneuver under the nuclear umbrella than Pakistan's threats may suggest. Additionally, as Shashank Joshi recently noted, India staged limited cross-border raids in the 2000s. These did not elicit threats of a Pakistani nuclear response. (Pakistan became a declared nuclear weapons state in 1999.)

In this sense, Pakistan's nuclear weapons aren't as much of a deterrent as it may suggest. India could likely get away with additional cross-border incursions that target Pakistani terrorists, with possible retaliations from Pakistan that may include mobilizing more troops along the border and, perhaps, limited conventional strikes in India. (If India were to hit Pakistani soldiers instead of militants, Pakistan's chances of a robust response would increase.)

New Delhi's no first-use policy means that Pakistan could exercise limited force in India without having to worry about an Indian nuclear response. However, for Pakistan, a safer and more likely step would be simply sit to back and let the anti-India terror groups on its soil carry out more attacks in India.

Army base attack leaves 17 Indian soldiers dead 03:52

All of this could safely happen under the nuclear umbrella.

Additionally, there are reasons other than nukes that limit prospects for a hot war.
First, Thursday's strike was not as escalatory as the jingoistic rhetoric in India may have suggested; New Delhi described it as a one-off operation to pre-emptively avert terror attacks in India.

Second, Washington is likely working the phones with its interlocutors in Islamabad to urge restraint. Pakistan won't want to risk further aid and arms cutbacks from Washington that could be imposed if it retaliated militarily in a big way.

Third, operational incapacities within India's armed forces and the inferiority of Pakistan's conventional forces to India's (in terms of pure numbers) constrain military options on both sides.

The uptake? Nukes don't deter all conflict on the subcontinent, but they do minimize the prospects of major war. Meanwhile, non-nuclear factors give reason for hope that the region will be spared the heavy bloodshed threatened amid all the bluster of recent days.
 

Housecarl

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Egypt says it killed senior Muslim Brotherhood leader in shootout

Reuters
5 hrs ago

Egypt's Interior Ministry said early on Tuesday that it killed a senior Muslim Brotherhood leader it said was responsible for the group's "armed wing" and another member of the group in a shootout on Monday.

Mohamed Kamal, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood's top leadership, had disappeared on Monday afternoon, the group said on its telegram account. The Brotherhood maintains that it is a peaceful organisation.

Kamal had been sentenced to life in prison on two counts in absentia, the ministry said in its statement.

(Reporting by Mostafa Hashem; Writing by Amina Ismail; Editing by Ahmed Aboulenein and Sandra Maler)
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...solution/ar-BBwXUg7?li=AA4Zpp&ocid=spartandhp

U.N. Security Council begins negotiations on new Syria resolution

CBS News
cbsnews (hidden byline)
2 hrs ago

UNITED NATIONS -- The U.N. Security Council began negotiations Monday on a draft resolution seeking an immediate truce in Aleppo and calling for an end to all military flights over the Syrian city, where over a quarter million people in rebel-held areas are besieged by Syrian forces.

But Russia immediately rejected any grounding of aircraft*and questioned whether a resolution at this time would actually produce any results.

The resolution drafted by France and Spain threatens“further measures” -- diplomatic code for sanctions -- should any party fail to comply with the truce, and it asks for a new U.N.-supervised truce monitor.

“We consider that this is our responsibility to do absolutely everything we can do, everything humanly possible to unite the Security Council behind our efforts to end the martyrdom in Aleppo,”France’s U.N. Ambassador Francois Delattre said before Monday’s meeting.

CBS News has seen a copy of the draft resolution, which is being negotiated at the U.N. in the hope of negotiating a new ceasefire so that humanitarian aid can arrive in besieged areas in Syria,*CBS News’*Pamela*Falk reported.*

Here is*some of what the*draft resolution,*which is in the process of being revised, includes:

Demands that all parties to the Syrian conflict, in particular the Syrian authorities, immediately comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law and international human rights law, in particular in all besieged and hard-to-reach areas.Notes that those violations and abuses committed in Syria that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity shall not go unpunished.Calls for full implementation of the cessation of hostilities, including an end to all aerial bombardments as well as the provision of immediate, safe and unhindered humanitarian access, and calls on the International Syria Support Group to ensure the immediate implementation of the cessation of hostilities, starting with Aleppo, and, to put an end to all military flights over the city.Calls for enhanced monitoring of the respect of the cessation of hostilities.Demands that the Syrian government end all aerial bombardments, in order to facilitate safe and unhindered humanitarian access to all of Aleppo by the UN and its humanitarian partners.

Russia intervened on behalf of its close ally Syria on Sept.30 last year, joining President Bashar Assad’s bombardment of both anti-government rebel groups and militant groups such as the Islamic State and the Fatah al-Sham Front, an al-Qaida spinoff formerly known as the Nusra Front.

With Russia’s backing, Syrian forces have encircled the eastern half of Aleppo where continued attacks have repeatedly damaged medical facilities in violation of international law.

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, whose country holds the rotating Security Council presidency this month, defended Russia’s military actions in Syria in the wake of bombings of hospitals and an aid convoy, saying Russia never deliberately targeted civilians.

“Had it not been for our involvement in Syria it might well be that the black flags will be flying over Damascus - it could well be,” Churkin said, referring to the flag of the Islamic State group.

Churkin said his country had concerns about the French resolution’s workability.

Rebel-held eastern Aleppo “has been taken hostage by Nusra and some others who are working with Nusra,” he said. “The primary goal of Russia in that part of the world, in Syria and Iraq, is to throw out the terrorists. As long as the terrorists are there, there will be no peace and quiet for the civilians, in eastern Aleppo or anywhere else.”

Churkin said Russia is “a little bit baffled” that France called for a new monitoring mechanism for the cease-fire when there is already one in Geneva “which has been there for a long time and frankly has not been used very effectively.”

Russia, which is one of five veto-holding permanent membersof the Security Council, has blocked a number of resolutions on Syria.

Churkin told a news conference that France said it wants united council support and doesn’t want to see a Russian veto.

“If they were sincere, we can have a resolution, I suppose, which would be more balanced,” Churkin said, but he said he wasn’t sure that many council members would like to see a resolution “that has no chance of working.”

Human Rights Watch called on the Security Council to demand that Syria and Russia immediately halt attacks in eastern Aleppo and ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid to the several hundred thousand people trapped there.

“The Security Council should immediately adopt are solution demanding an end to the slaughter. And Russia, itself involved in the bombing, should refrain from using its veto or risk further sullying its record as a permanent member of the council,” Louis Charbonneau, U.N.director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
hmmm, interesting timing for this to come out.

I would have expected to hear they had done so in Iran or even China before Russia.



Nathan J Hunt Retweeted
Aki Heikkinen ‏@akihheikkinen 3h3 hours ago

North Korea nuclear scientists conducted UNSC sanctions violating research in Russia until 2015.



posted for fair use and discussion
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...duct-research/6581475546563/?spt=su&or=btn_tw



Report: Russia allowed North Korea nuclear scientists to conduct research

A former member of the U.N. Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee says there’s evidence Russia violated international sanctions.
By Elizabeth Shim Contact the Author | Oct. 3, 2016 at 10:09 PM Follow @upi


A former member of the United Nations Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee told a Japanese news agency Russia violated rules by allowing Pyongyang’s scientists into the country. Photo courtesy Loey Felipe/United Nations

An exclusive report putting perspective on the week's most important developments.

TOKYO, Oct. 3 (UPI) -- Moscow may have allowed several North Korean nuclear researchers to work at Russian nuclear sites, including a scientist who is under United Nations Security Council sanctions.

The North Korean nuclear scientists were allowed to engage in their research in Russia until early 2015 when Pyongyang stopped paying an annual membership fee to the Russian government, Japanese news agency Jiji Press reported Monday.

Katsuhisa Furukawa, who served on the U.N. Security Council's North Korea sanctions committee, said the group has evidence the North Koreans were allowed to conduct studies at Russian nuclear facilities in violation of international sanctions.

Russian authorities had said the North Korean scientists' work was "not related to nuclear weapons research," but Furukawa said the researchers were working at a major nuclear research institute where North Korea was one of 18 countries in representation.

The Japanese official said the Russian policy is a violation of international sanctions, adding the research center may have also hosted Ri Chae Son, a North Korean nuclear scientist under U.N. sanctions since 2009.

Russian authorities had said Ri was banned from the country after he was placed under sanctions, but Furukawa said Russian officials did not give the U.N. committee access to immigration records, which casts doubt on the authenticity of the claims.

The sanctions strictly forbid U.N. member states from engaging North Korea on nuclear-related activities.

Furukawa served on the committee from October 2011 to April 2016, and was in charge of investigating North Korea sanctions violations.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
hmmm, interesting timing for this to come out.

I would have expected to hear they had done so in Iran or even China before Russia.



Nathan J Hunt Retweeted
Aki Heikkinen ‏@akihheikkinen 3h3 hours ago

North Korea nuclear scientists conducted UNSC sanctions violating research in Russia until 2015.



posted for fair use and discussion
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...duct-research/6581475546563/?spt=su&or=btn_tw



Report: Russia allowed North Korea nuclear scientists to conduct research

A former member of the U.N. Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee says there’s evidence Russia violated international sanctions.
By Elizabeth Shim Contact the Author | Oct. 3, 2016 at 10:09 PM Follow @upi


A former member of the United Nations Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee told a Japanese news agency Russia violated rules by allowing Pyongyang’s scientists into the country. Photo courtesy Loey Felipe/United Nations

An exclusive report putting perspective on the week's most important developments.

TOKYO, Oct. 3 (UPI) -- Moscow may have allowed several North Korean nuclear researchers to work at Russian nuclear sites, including a scientist who is under United Nations Security Council sanctions.

The North Korean nuclear scientists were allowed to engage in their research in Russia until early 2015 when Pyongyang stopped paying an annual membership fee to the Russian government, Japanese news agency Jiji Press reported Monday.

Katsuhisa Furukawa, who served on the U.N. Security Council's North Korea sanctions committee, said the group has evidence the North Koreans were allowed to conduct studies at Russian nuclear facilities in violation of international sanctions.

Russian authorities had said the North Korean scientists' work was "not related to nuclear weapons research," but Furukawa said the researchers were working at a major nuclear research institute where North Korea was one of 18 countries in representation.

The Japanese official said the Russian policy is a violation of international sanctions, adding the research center may have also hosted Ri Chae Son, a North Korean nuclear scientist under U.N. sanctions since 2009.

Russian authorities had said Ri was banned from the country after he was placed under sanctions, but Furukawa said Russian officials did not give the U.N. committee access to immigration records, which casts doubt on the authenticity of the claims.

The sanctions strictly forbid U.N. member states from engaging North Korea on nuclear-related activities.

Furukawa served on the committee from October 2011 to April 2016, and was in charge of investigating North Korea sanctions violations.

I wonder how many Russian controlled Swiss bank accounts had their balances change over this?........
 

thompson

Certa Bonum Certamen
https://www.rt.com/news/361545-embassy-russia-syria-shelling/

Russian embassy in Damascus shelled from terrorist-controlled area of Syria

Published time: 4 Oct, 2016 10:26 Edited time: 4 Oct, 2016 10:49

57f386ecc3618853418b45a8.jpg



The Russian embassy in Damascus came under fire on Tuesday from a neighborhood controlled by militant groups, including Al-Nusra Front, the Russian Foreign Ministry reports.

One of the mortar shells fired at the embassy complex hit the residential area, while two others landed near the embassy building, the ministry said in a statement. Nobody was injured by the explosions.


“According to reports, the shelling came from the Jobar neighborhood of Damascus, which is under control of the terrorist groups Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and Failak ar-Rahman,” the ministry said.


Jabhat Fateh al-Sham is the new name taken by Al-Nusra Front, the Al-Qaeda offshoot universally considered a terrorist organization. Failak ar-Rahman is a lesser-known Islamist group.


Moscow said the shelling is “result of the actions of those who, like the US and some of its allies, provoke the continued bloodshed in Syria and flirt with militants and extremists of all flavors.”

The ministry said Russia would take “all necessary measures” to return peace and security to Syria.


The Russian embassy in Damascus has come under militant fire on several occasions. The Syrian capital remains under threat despite the efforts of the army to fend off armed groups.
 

Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....
https://news.usni.org/2016/10/04/official-3-u-s-warships-off-yemen-following-attack-uae-ship

Officials: 3 U.S. Warships Off Yemen Following Attack on UAE Ship

By: Sam LaGrone
October 4, 2016 11:43 AM

THE PENTAGON — Three U.S. warships are operating off the coast Yemen following a guided missile attack against a UAE operated ship by Houthi rebels, two U.S. defense officials confirmed to USNI News on Tuesday.

The ships – guided-missile destroyers USS Nitze (DDG-94), USS Mason (DDG-87) and the afloat forward staging base USS Ponce (AFSB(I)-15) – are on station off Yemen near the Bab Al Mandeb strait that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The strait is a key transit route for ships passing from the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal into the Indian Ocean. The two guided missile destroyers are assigned to the Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group operating in the region.

The presence of the U.S. ships in the region was first reported by Fox News late Monday.

An official told USNI News the move of the trio was prompted by the guided missile attack on the Saturday HSV Swift, a high-speed ferry that was once used by U.S. Military Sealift Command and leased to the UAE. U.S. officials told USNI News the ship was operating in territorial waters.

Video

“The attack is believed to be related to the ongoing conflict in Yemen and not an attack against general shipping. U.S. Naval Forces Central Command has ships in the area and is working closely with our allies and regional partners to ensure the free flow of commerce,” a separate defense official told USNI News on Tuesday.
“While I can’t discuss our specifics of any response, we do have ships in the area and are working with allies and regional partners. We are committed to ensuring the free flow of commerce.”

Houthi rebels, who claimed responsibility for the attack, released a video purporting to show a guided missile striking a ship at night and the eruption of a giant fireball.

Reports indicate the weapons used could have been Chinese-built C-802 anti-ship missiles (NATO reporting name CSS-N-8 Saccade) or guided anti-tank weapons.

In a statement, the Houthis said, “rockets targeted an Emirati warship as it approached the coast of Mokha” on the Red Sea, reported Al Jazeera.
“It was completely destroyed.”

UAE officials said the ship was involved in an “incident” near the strait but said no one was injured.

Iranian Press TV reported rebels warned the collation if it sent a ship into “territorial waters” it would be attacked.

Since last year a Saudi-led Arab coalition – which includes UAE – has fought against the Iran backed Shi’a Houthis in Yemen.

Iran has been shipping weapons to the rebels since the start of the conflict. The weapon shipments have occasionally been intercepted by Saudi-allied forces heading into the country.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/04/isis-sets-sights-on-rest-of-africa.html

STAGING GROUND

ISIS Sets Sights on Rest of Africa

Obama called the intervention in Libya a ‘shit show,’ but unless the West moves quickly, radical jihadists are poised to make the Libyan debacle look like a mere preamble.

NICHOLAS JUBBER
10.03.16 10:00 PM ET

Officially, the so-called Islamic State (widely known as ISIS) is on the run: its manpower reduced in the Middle East, its troops pushed out of their Libyan strongholds. For President Obama, who conceded that bungling the aftermath of the 2011 Libyan intervention was the “worst mistake” of his presidency, the gains made in North Africa represent an eleventh hour redemption. Headlines are declaring that ISIS is in retreat. But the question to ask is: retreat to where?

In an essay translated by the Quilliam Foundation, an ISIS supporter identifies Libya as a “strategic gateway” from which “pandemonium could be wrought in the southern Europe.” Even more than Syria, the fate of Libya is likely to color the next president’s foreign policy. While Syria has been a whirlpool, sucking in the most toxic elements in the region, Libya is a sandstorm, spreading its mayhem outward. According to the ISIS supporter’s essay, Libya is “the key to Egypt, the key to Tunisia, Sudan, Mali, Algeria and Niger too.”

Among the many mistakes made during the 2011 intervention, a significant blunder was the failure to ask where Gaddafi’s supporters had fled. Within months, hundreds of Tuareg combatants turned up in Mali, bearing machine guns and portable missile systems from Gaddafi’s stockpiles. While traveling with nomadic salt merchants north of Timbuktu, I witnessed their arrival: My guide pointed out the unfamiliar tents, complaining there were “too many strangers in the desert.” A few weeks later, a German tourist was murdered and his three companions kidnapped; the police chief in the town where I was staying insisted on an all-night motorbike patrol to make sure another kidnap didn’t take place. Few realized at the time, but Mali’s nightmare had begun.

The impact of the Malian crisis is being debated in the Hague this month, where Ahmad al-Faqi Al-Mahdi is due to be sentenced for “damaging mankind’s heritage” in Timbuktu. Long-standing smuggling routes have been hijacked—the same routes that will carry ISIS deeper into Africa. The jihadist groups operating in Mali saw no limit to their territorial ambitions, and nor does the Islamic State; the difference is that ISIS has real financial clout, operating capability, and a powerful brand. If it can break through the dusty membrane of the Sahel, it will have access to sub-Saharan Africa and the potential to reach across the continent, exploiting a tangle of marginalized communities, just as it exploited the Anbar tribes of Iraq and Gaddafi’s support base in Libya.

It shouldn’t be like this. As the U.K. Foreign Affairs Select Committee judged last week, the 2011 Libyan campaign was marked by a “failure to develop a coherent Libya strategy,” leading to “political and economic collapse,” a surge of unmanaged migration, and “increased terrorism.” In the U.K., the rap falls on David Cameron, but in the U.S. it is Hilary Clinton who is under fire, lambasted for her claim that Libya is a “work in progress.” Not that her rival has much to boast about. Donald Trump’s Libya pronouncements are as inconsistent as his migration mathematics or his position on NATO. He swings from charging Clinton with “implementing” the 2011 intervention, to advocating an escalation in U.S. military involvement, to bragging of his business links with Colonel Gaddafi.

Inconsistent or compromised: It doesn’t bode well for America’s power-broking role in the region. Which is problematic, because positive leadership is needed, now more than ever. ISIS needs to be contained, not displaced. Key to this is securing the backing of local leadership, from tribal chiefs to national governments, quashing corruption, and improving the quality, not the rate, of investment. Billions of dollars have been thrown at too many countries in North Africa, without benefiting the most destitute, vulnerable communities.

On an international level, care must be taken to avoid the proxy warmongering that has destroyed Syria. There, a horrific parody of the Cold War braces Russian fighter jets and CIA-backed rebels against the long-running Sunni-Shia saga led by Saudi Arabia and Iran. A nation once celebrated for diversity, now fettered by sectarianism, is drowning under the “superpower” chess game played across its surface. Africa is next.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have been spreading their influence, funding Wahabist preachers, supplying the welfare that local governments are too tangled in corruption to dish out. China’s economic presence levers infrastructural investment against the exploitation of cheap labor and resources. France has a huge role in West Africa, where its three-and-a-half-year-long military campaign is motivated, in part, by the uranium mines in Niger (which provide a third of the uranium for its lucrative nuclear industry). Anyone who thinks North Africa hasn’t got proxy war potential needs to look at the map again.

Other players are gathering, lured by North Africa’s untapped resources. The region has tremendous economic promise, however jittery the political forecast. But tackling its problems are key. The West benefits from its uranium, phosphorus, oil, and other resources, but also feels the impact from jihadism, narco-trafficking, and mass migration. We need to engage with this region, not turn our backs on it. Confronting what Obama calls the “shit show,” and the myriad conflicts blasting around it, is essential. Otherwise these disasters will continue to spread, scattering the next U.S. president’s foreign policy on the winds of another Saharan sandstorm.

Nicholas Jubber’s The Timbuktu School for Nomads: Across the Sahara in the Shadow of Jihad will be published by Nicholas Brealey Publishing in November 2016.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37551889

Turkey purges 13,000 police officers over failed coup

9 hours ago
From the section Europe

Turkey has suspended almost 13,000 police officers for their alleged links with the US-based Muslim cleric, Fethullah Gulen.

The latest wave adds to the 100,000 or so government workers dismissed or suspended since July's failed coup.

Mr Gulen denies the government's accusation that he or his supporters orchestrated the coup.

The government in turn rejects claims it is using the coup as an excuse to get rid of its opponents.

It insists those without proven links to the coup will be freed.

Turkey post-coup purges convulse society

More than 2,500 officers whose suspensions were announced on Tuesday were police chiefs, said Turkish national police in a statement.

It comes hours after the government announced that a state of emergency imposed shortly after the failed putsch would be extended by three months when it expires on 19 October.

The emergency allows the president and cabinet effectively to rule by decree, bypassing parliament when drafting new laws and able to restrict or suspend rights and freedoms.

There are fears that under the state of emergency - and in a country where judicial independence has plummeted - opponents are being rounded up with little chance to clear their name, says the BBC's Mark Lowen in Istanbul.

He says the depth of the purge is staggering, with thousands suspended, dismissed, detained or arrested - from teachers to soldiers, police to judges, aircraft pilots to journalists.

In some areas, such as in eastern areas where there are large Kurdish populations, so many teachers have been detained - some accused of supporting the banned Kurdish rebel PKK group - that schools have effectively been forced to shut.

Silent schoolyards: Hatice Kamer, BBC Turkish, Diyarbakir
Turkish police detain a teacher during a protest in Diyarbakir on September 9, 2016Image copyrightAFP
Image caption

Some 4,000 teachers have been suspended in the city of Diyarbakir alone
In the Kurdish areas, education has been hit twice this year: First by violence between security forces and PKK militants and then by the purge that followed the attempted coup.

In Diyarbakir, the biggest Kurdish city in the region, 4,000 teachers have been suspended.

Ali, a high-school student, moved to Diyarbakir to continue his education after clashes in his hometown, Sirnak, closed all the schools.

But he has been stymied here too. Since the coup attempt 19 teachers in his new school have been dismissed, meaning there is very little tuition left.

He now uses the past tense when discussing his ambitions. "Going to university," he says, "was my dream."

"I was working very hard to get a good job. But even our teachers are jobless now. What's the point?"

The schoolyards in Diyarbakir are mostly silent as school directors search desperately for new teachers.

The government says they will deploy 20,000 teachers to fill in.

But time passes by. In this region, there is little hope among students, teachers and parents that education standards can be maintained.

More than 130 media outlets have also been shut down.

Turkish authorities have repeatedly appealed to the US to extradite Mr Gulen and say they have presented documents proving his involvement in the coup bid.
Over the weekend, Mr Gulen's brother was detained by police in western Turkey - the latest relative to be held. Mr Gulen's two nephews were detained in July and August.

Mr Gulen's lawyers insist he had no involvement in the coup attempt, and say he will not have a fair trial if extradited to his homeland.

Coup plot and anti-Gulen fervour
Pro-Erdogan rally in Ankara, 7 Aug 16Image copyrightAFP
Image caption
The ruling AKP staged huge pro-Erdogan rallies after the July coup attempt
Who are the Gulenists?
Who was behind coup attempt?
Brief guide to Turkey's coup
Turkey shuts more than 130 media outlets
Crackdown hits 'Gulen schools' worldwide
 

Housecarl

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https://www.brookings.edu/blog/mark...ium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=fp

MARKAZ

Saudi Arabia and terrorism today

Daniel L. Byman
Thursday, September 29, 2016

Congress’ override of President Obama’s veto to allow Americans to sue Saudi Arabia for links to the 9/11 plot raises many questions, not least of which is the relationship between Saudi Arabia and terrorist groups today. As I testified earlier this year, Saudi Arabia has made considerable progress on counterterrorism in the last 15 years but still has a long way to go.

Before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, and really until al-Qaida began to attack the Kingdom directly in May 2003, Saudi Arabia was often uncooperative on counterterrorism and more part of the problem than part of the solution. Since 2003, the Saudi regime has emerged as a vital counterterrorism partner, and several important successes against al-Qaida in particular are due in large part to Saudi cooperation. Yet it’s not a simple story of progress: the Kingdom engages in many troubling behaviors today that make the terrorism problem worse. In the end, policymakers would do well to remember that Saudi Arabia is a key partner but not a friend: the United States and Saudi Arabia share many common interests, but they do not share common values or a common worldview.

WHAT’S THE LINK, EXACTLY?

Understanding Saudi Arabia’s relationship with terrorists, however, is far more difficult than assessing Iran’s backing of terrorism, which is open, extensive, and state-sponsored. Much of Saudi support is done by non-state actors. Yet being “non-state” does not absolve the Saudi government of responsibility. These non-state actors enjoy a range of relationships to the Saudi regime. Some receive or did receive official patronage. Others, particularly those tied to leading clerics in the Kingdom, are embraced indirectly by the regime’s self-proclaimed role as Defender of the Faithful. And still others are truly private, acting independently of the government and in times in opposition to it.

In addition, the Saudi royal family itself occupies an unusual role. In one sense, the royal family—with its tens of thousands of princes—is not the government. However, the family’s and the government’s finances are interwoven, and if a prince supports a group it has an unofficial imprimatur of approval. King Salman himself, for example, helped raise money for the mujahedin in Afghanistan and the Balkans.

Many of these voices are responsible for indoctrination rather than direct violence. That is to say they might propagate views on the Satanic nature of Jews, the apostasy of Shiites, or the heretical nature of the Ahmadiyyas, as well as the legitimacy of using violence to fight foreign occupiers of Muslim lands—be it Indian forces in Kashmir, U.S. forces in Iraq, or Israeli forces in historic Palestine. Such support, in the United States, would often be considered distasteful but part of protected free speech. For terrorists, however, it can prove invaluable as it provides theological legitimacy for their actions, enabling them to attract recruits and funds.

BEHIND-THE-SCENES PRESSURE

Washington’s ability to influence the Kingdom is limited, however, given the Saudi domestic sensitivities of these issues. U.S. pressure under the Bush and Obama administrations has moved Saudi Arabia away from many dangerous activities and has helped transform Saudi capacity in fighting terrorism. Even if the key motivation was the change in the perceived threat to the Kingdom itself rather than U.S. influence, these are considerable successes that deserve recognition.

Changing Saudi policy still further is difficult. Although the United States has sold the Kingdom almost $100 billion in arms during the Obama administration, the Saudi media remains critical of the president as unreliable and hostile to the Kingdom. Riyadh, moreover, is frustrated with U.S. policy regarding Iran in particular, but also in the region in general. Saudi Arabia backed the coup in Egypt, in opposition to U.S. policy, and Saudi leaders were previously outraged that the United States abandoned the Mubarak regime. The Obama administration has largely abandoned criticizing the Saudi regime on human rights grounds, but it is important to remember that most Saudis do not share U.S. values regarding women’s and homosexual rights, religious liberty, and other basic freedoms that are fundamental to American society.

Many issues regarding counterterrorism—particularly the promotion of extremism abroad via sectarianism and criticism of non-Muslims—touch on core domestic political issues vital to the regime’s legitimacy and very survival. Change in these areas will at best be slow, and the United States should expect progress to end or even reverse should the regime’s domestic situation face challenges.

Quiet pressure is almost always best when trying to change Saudi policy. The small circle of decisionmakers in Saudi Arabia does not take well to public embarrassment, and they believe strongly in the value of close personal relationships. To be effective, U.S. pressure must involve top officials, including the president. Otherwise, it will simply be ignored or may even prove counterproductive.

Saudi Arabia is a vital partner in the struggle to defeat the Islamic State, al-Qaida, and other groups. But it is not a friend. Demonizing Saudi Arabia does not help advance U.S. interests, but nor should critics of U.S. policy in the region see Washington and Riyadh as fully aligned given the profound difference in values.

Related
The U.S.-Saudi Arabia counterterrorism relationship

ISIS fantasies of an apocalyptic showdown in northern Syria

What JASTA will mean for U.S.-Saudi relations

Related Books

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By Madiha Afzal 2019
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By Suzanne Maloney 2017

Turkey and the West
By Kemal Kirişci 2017
 

Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2016/10/future-army/132105/

Army Warns that Future War with Russia or China Would Be ‘Extremely Lethal and Fast’

BY BRADLEY PENISTON
READ BIO
5:05 PM ET

Leaders say warfare in the coming decades will be fundamentally different from the past 25 years.

To envision the wars of the future, first remember those of the distant past, with their soul-numbing artillery barrages and unstinting waves of conventional enemy forces. Then speed up that mental newsreel and imagine a ground war accelerated by artificial intelligence and precision munitions, nested in a larger strategic sphere where everything is moving at Internet velocity.

That’s the picture that Army leaders are working from as they try to prepare their force to deter and defeat America’s enemies over the next few decades.

The nation faces existential threats from “modern nation-states acting aggressively in militarized competition,” said Lt. Gen. Joseph Anderson, Army deputy chief of staff for operations, plans, and training. “Who does that sound like? Russia?” He spoke on a future-of-the-Army panel at the annual meeting of the Association of the U.S. Army in Washington on Tuesday.

China is a growing threat as well, if not one that can project force globally yet. Together, these two powers are mustering conventionally massive militaries that are increasingly technological — and forcing the Pentagon to contemplate and prepare for “violence on the scale that the U.S. Army has not seen since Korea,” said Maj. Gen. William Hix, Anderson’s deputy. “A conventional conflict in the near future will be extremely lethal and fast. And we will not own the stopwatch.”

By that, Hix meant that wars will start with minimal notice, and grind through forces more quickly than has been the case in the recent counterterrorism operations. So the Army has to find ways to keep readiness high, and to learn how to replenish them more quickly.

Interface design will play a key role in that, said Katharina McFarland, acting assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics, and technology.

“You travel all over the world, don’t you?” McFarland asked the gathered audience of soldiers, Army civilians, and industry reps. “You can pretty much get in a car anywhere and drive it.”

The Army’s future weapons and vehicles need those kinds of intuitive, familiar controls. In the heat of future war, a soldier must be able to quickly learn to fly, say, three different variants of helicopters. Or move easily from a tank’s gunnery controls to an artillery console.

“How do I get TRADOC to decrease cycle time?” she said. “As an engineer, I think in terms of a simple interface — no matter what helicopter, you can get in and operate it.”

Even more revolutionary will be the impact of artificial intelligence and autonomic systems on the battlefield. “The speed of events are likely to strain our human abilities,” Hix said. “The speed at which machines can make decisions in the far future is likely to challenge our ability to cope, demanding a new relationship between man and machine.”

All this, he said, will make the coming decades fundamentally different from the past 25 years.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.torontosun.com/2016/10/04/pakistan-threatens-a-nuclear-war-with-india

Pakistan threatens a nuclear war with India

BY TAREK FATAH, TORONTO SUN
FIRST POSTED: TUESDAY, OCTOBER 04, 2016 06:05 PM EDT | UPDATED: TUESDAY, OCTOBER 04, 2016 06:26 PM EDT

With the West distracted by entertainment, professional sport and the U.S. presidential elections, the war clouds that started gathering over the Indian subcontinent in September have now thickened after a threat from Pakistan that it will use nuclear weapons to “annihilate” India.

The latest flare-up in the 70-year-old India-Pakistan conflict began after an attack on an Indian army base by jihadi suicide bombers infiltrating from Pakistan that left 19 Indian soldiers dead.

India responded with what it called a “surgical strike” on the terrorist camps inside the Pakistan-administered part of Kashmir, resulting in “significant casualties” among the jihadi militants, in addition to some regular Pakistan troops.

The reaction from Pakistan illustrated the chaos that exists in that country’s power structure.

While the civilian prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, denounced the Indian attack, the Pakistan military flatly denied any such attack had taken place.

While Islamabad’s civilian and military leaders couldn’t get their acts together, the country’s defence minister raised the possibility of a nuclear attack on Indian cities and troop formations.

Talking to the Pakistani TV channel SAMAA on Sept. 26, Defence Minister Muhammad Asif said, “We haven’t kept the (nuclear) devices that we have just as showpieces … if our safety is threatened, we will annihilate them (India).”

This wasn't the first he has brandished his country’s nuclear weapons.

On September 17, Asif told Pakistan’s Geo TV: “Allah has said in the Qur’an, ‘The horses must be prepared', so we should always be completely prepared. … if there is a threat to our security, or if anyone steps on our soil and if someone’s designs are a threat to our security, we will not hesitate to use those (nuclear) weapons for our defence.”

While India, Pakistan’s much more powerful neighbour, showed restraint in its rhetoric and military response to Pakistani provocations, Islamabad has been acting like a drunk gunslinger unleashing his goons to terrorize the entire neighbourhood.

Pakistan’s boasting about its nuclear weapons even came up in the U.S. presidential election.

Days after the Islamabad’s threat to trigger a nuclear war, the New York Times, citing a 50-minute audio that appeared on The Washington Free Beacon website, quoted Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton expressing concern over the possibility of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of jihadists, which she called “a threatening scenario”.

The former U.S. secretary of state told a close-door fundraiser in Virginia, in reference to Pakistan:

“(We) live in fear that they’re going to have a coup, that jihadists are going to take over the government, they’re going to get access to nuclear weapons, and you’ll have suicide nuclear bombers. So, this could not be a more threatening scenario ... This is one of the most dangerous developments imaginable.”

Beyond Clinton’s leaked comments, the only other western politicians to raise the alarm about Pakistan are U.S. Congressmen Dana Rohrabacher and Ted Poe, who have tabled a bill in Congress to declare Pakistan a “state sponsor of terrorism.”

It’s time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his caucus (which includes two Pakistani-born MPs) to declare Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism and shut down any aid or trade deals empowering Pakistan’s military and its nuclear swagger.

But will he? I doubt he understands the dangers of mushroom clouds over India and Pakistan.

Perhaps Trudeau’s Indian-born Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan should try to educate his boss.
 

Housecarl

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http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russia-adds-hundreds-warheads-nuclear-treaty/

Russia Adds Hundreds of Warheads Under Nuclear Treaty

61 new warheads since April under New START

BY: Bill Gertz
October 4, 2016 3:20 pm

Russia increased its deployed nuclear warheads over the past six months under a strategic arms reduction treaty as U.S. nuclear warhead stocks declined sharply, according to the State Department.

During the same period, the United States cut its deployed nuclear warheads by 114, increasing the disparity between the two nuclear powers.

Russia’s warhead increases since 2011 suggest Moscow does not intend to cut its nuclear forces and will abandon the New START arms accord as part of a major nuclear buildup.

“It is now highly unlikely that Russia intends to comply with New START,” said Mark Schneider, a former Pentagon nuclear weapons specialist now with the National Institute for Policy.

At the same time, the Obama administration is continuing a program of unilateral nuclear disarmament despite promises by President Obama to modernize and maintain U.S. nuclear forces as long as strategic dangers are present.

The latest Russian warhead increases coincide with increased tensions between Moscow and the West.

The nuclear buildup is raising new fears Russia plans to break out of New START treaty limits rather than comply with the accord. Russian forces have deployed 249 warheads above the warhead limit set by the treaty to be reached by February 2018.

Since the treaty went into force in 2011, Moscow increased its total warhead stockpile from 1,537 warheads to 1,796 warheads, an increase of 259 warheads.

By contrast, the Obama administration has cut U.S. nuclear forces by 433 warheads during the same period.

Air Force Gen. John E. Hyten, nominee to be the next commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, warned the Senate during a hearing last month that Russia is modernizing both its strategic and tactical nuclear weapons.

“It seems clear that Russia has been making large investments in its nuclear weapon programs as well as modernizing both its strategic and non-strategic nuclear weapons,” Hyten stated in answers to questions posed by the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“In addition to advancing nuclear capabilities, Russia is emphasizing new regional and strategic approaches, and declaring and demonstrating its ability to escalate if required,” he added. “Collectively, Russian development of advancing weapons capabilities and its evolving warfighting doctrine is concerning.”

Under New START, the United States and Russia agreed to reduce deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 warheads. Deployed land-based and submarine-launched missiles and bombers will be cut to 700. Missile launchers and non-deployed heavy bombers will be reduced to 800.

While U.S. nuclear forces are very old and in need of modernization, Russian nuclear forces are being modernized. By 2020, nuclear missile submarines, land-based missiles, and bombers will be modernized, with 70 percent of the nuclear forces replaced with advanced systems, according to U.S. officials.

In a related development, Russia announced on Tuesday it is abandoning a 2000 agreement to reduce stockpiles of plutonium originally intended for nuclear weapons.

“We’re disappointed with their decision,” Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said of the Russian rejection of the plutonium agreement.

The Russian action followed the State Department’s decision to cut off talks with Russia on Syria.

Schneider, the nuclear weapons expert, said Moscow appears to be on a path to doubling its warheads.

“With or without New START, Russian deployed strategic nuclear warheads are likely to increase to 3,000 by 2030,” he said.

Other troubling signs of Russian nuclear weapons advances include intelligence reports that Moscow is expanding underground nuclear command bunkers, violating New START terms, and planning to double its warhead stockpiles for new multiple-warhead missiles.

Schneider added that the sharp U.S. nuclear cuts indicate the Obama administration is moving ahead with a unilateral disarmament scheme.

“I think it is also clear that the Obama administration has an unannounced program to implement Obama’s proposed one-third reduction in strategic nuclear forces from the New START level unilaterally,” he said.

A strategic military balance that existed in 2011 when the treaty was approved has now been reversed by Russian increases and U.S. cuts.

“In 2011, the United States had a lead of 263 deployed warheads,” Schneider said. “We are now 429 deployed warheads below Russia. The Russians will think this is quite important. It could impact Putin’s willingness to take risks.”

Russia has adopted a new nuclear strategy that lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear arms in a conflict. Moscow calls the nuclear doctrine, escalate to de-escalate.

Blake Narendra, spokesman for the State Department’s arms control bureau, dismissed the Russian warhead increase, saying it was part of a “business-like” implementation of the treaty provisions.

“The United States and Russia continue to implement the New START treaty in a business-like manner,” Narendra said. “The treaty does not prescribe interim limits. We fully expect Russia to meet the treaty’s central limits by February 2018.”

Narendra said current tensions with Russia highlight the need to abide by treaty provisions on verification and confidence-building measures.

Without the treaty, the United States would lack information about Russian strategic forces that are currently being modernized, he said.

“Fluctuations in the number of deployed warheads is an expected process as the Russians replace older missiles dating from the 1980s that are being retired and eliminated,” Narendra said.

Hans M. Kristensen, an analyst with the Federation of American Scientists, a group that favors nuclear arms cuts, said he believes the Russians will continue to abide by the treaty despite the 259 warheads it has deployed over New START levels.

“Rather than a nuclear build-up, however, the increase is a temporary fluctuation caused by introduction of new types of launchers that will be followed by retirement of older launchers before 2018,” Kristensen said, adding “Russia’s compliance with the treaty is not in doubt.”

Regarding other New START provisions, Russia had reduced its deployed strategic delivery systems—land-based and submarine missiles and bombers—slightly from 521 systems to 508 systems. The United States cut its missile and bomber forces by 60 systems over the same six-month period.

Russia cut its deployed and non-deployed delivery systems, another New START category, by 18 launchers and bombers. The United States cut 30 systems over the same period.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.usnews.com/news/articles...-planning-an-october-surprise-for-us-election

North Korea Could Play a Role on Election Day

Experts warn the country may have a trick up its sleeve to reassert relevance ahead of pivotal election.

By Curt Mills | Staff Writer Oct. 4, 2016, at 11:18 a.m.

North Korea could be a planning an "October surprise" meant to affect the U.S. election, as it has done in the past, according to a new report due out later this week.

Pyongyang may try to shake the American political scene in a number of ways, including test firing more missiles or conducting another nuclear test -- which would be the country's third this year, an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies set to be released said.

CSIS will publish the report later this week.

"Doing a major test would be a way of trying to intimidate the incoming president," Victor Cha of CSIS told CNN. "North Korea chooses particular windows that they know will gain maximum attention from the world, and the U.S. in particular."

"I don't think we can solve [the North Korean nuclear crisis] diplomatically, that much is clear," said Michael Green, also of CSIS, and formerly of the U.S. National Security Council. "Every administration in the last 20 years has tried a diplomatic approach, and the North Koreans have blown through every one."

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said earlier this year he was open to direct talks with Kim Jong Un, a framework that differs from the so-called "P5+1" talks -- the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany -- favored by the Obama administration.

But North Korea cut off communication with the U.S. at the U.N. in New York in July, and administration moves signal a relationship that has gone from bad to worse. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has backed the administration in supporting strengthened U.N. sanctions on the North.

Further, Reuters reported Tuesday that North Korea is winning the arms race with a central U.S. ally particularly impacted by the standoff: Japan. Tokyo is now unsure it could fend off a missile strike without U.S. help, military sources said.

"Our only option for now may be to rely on the U.S. to stop them," says a source at the Japan Self Defence Forces.


"North Korean ballistic missile technology is progressing step by step and every time we raise our capability they improve theirs," says another SDF source.
 
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