(251) 12-31-2016-to-01-06-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...06-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
(252) 1-07-2017-to-01-13-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...13-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
(253) 1-14-2017-to-01-20-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...20-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
----------
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...lligence-estimate-the-next-two-to-three-years
Tensions in the South China Sea National Intelligence Estimate: The Next Two to Three Years
by Daniel Urchick
Journal Article | January 20, 2017 - 10:21am
Executive Summary
The South China Sea is developing at an extraordinarily rapid rate and the events that transpire in the region in the next two to three years will be some of the most significant geopolitical events in the world.* Inside the South China Sea Region are five claimants, hundreds of contested geological features, and two major clashing superpowers: The United States and China. Four key variables have been identified as the principal factors in determining how the South China Sea will evolve in two to three years: (1) U.S. foreign policy in East Asia under Trump. (2) The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) increasing reliance on nationalism to maintain its legitimacy. (3) Vietnam and the development of its foreign policy. (4) The trend in the unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a collective security organization. It is predicted with a high degree of confidence that tensions in the South China Sea will continue to increase as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy becomes more confrontational with China. This will in turn encourage Vietnam to act more assertively, which in turn will drive Chinese nationalism to new levels. We predict with a medium degree of confidence that the region will take on the characteristics of Finlandization as a weak U.S. economic, as well as a lackluster hard power presence drives the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) towards bandwagoning with an increasingly-aggressive China. Vietnam remains the lone holdout, lashing out from its isolated position. Finally, we predict with a low degree of confidence that the South China Sea will deescalate to the mid-2016 status quo as uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy forces all claimants and peripheral influences to pause and consolidate their positions. Black swan events in the region include a radical change in Indian foreign policy towards China and a radical shift in the China-Russia relationship, for better or worse.
Identification and Elaboration of the Key Variables in the South China Sea’s Development
Variable One: Trump’s Foreign Policy in East and Southeast Asia
The United States’ presence in and around the South China Sea littoral community has been and will continue to be the biggest factor in the region’s development economically, politically, culturally, and militarily. Therefore U.S. foreign policy under President-elect Trump will greatly impact the South China Sea in the next two to three years. Thus far, the presence of the United States has encouraged the many smaller claimants to land and sea territory in the South China Sea to try and remain united against Chinese attempts to claim and administer nearly all of the Sea. Without the United States, the weaker nations around the South China Sea have previously indicated that they would likely have little choice other than to bandwagon with China despite their geopolitical and economic aversions.
While the United States has traditionally been a security provider and economic pillar for the region, the election of Donald J. Trump to the presidency of the United States has cast this historical consistency into doubt. Trump’s foreign policy on the South China Sea has yet to be fully articulated days before his inauguration. This is a critical unknown for the multitude of nations balancing against China’s perceived aggression in the region and places a great deal of stress upon already buckling leadership. Trump personally has expressed isolationist tendencies in foreign policy, but has also voiced economic hostility towards China. That said, the presumed failure of the Trans-Pacific Partnership removes the best possible way the United States can challenge China’s attempts to dominate the regional economy. Trump has indicated that he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods to at least 35 percent in order to bolster the United States’ domestic manufacturing sector, increasing the possibility of mutually harmful trade wars.
Recent Tweets from Trump’s account, directed at China and the South China Sea, further indicate that Trump may be willing to forgo the United States’ historic non-committal stance in the dispute. On December 4, 2016, he wrote in two consecutive Tweets:
“Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into…their country (the U.S. doesn't tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea?* I don't think so!”
The language of this Twitter tirade indicates that Trump believes that China should ask the United States for permission to carry out its actions in the South China Sea. Trump has also expressed that he believes that nations like South Korea and Japan, which benefit from the U.S. ‘security blanket’, are not contributing to fairly to their own security and have thus given legitimacy to ‘blanket’s’ removal. Trump also expressed support, or at the least indifference, towards the idea of Japan and other countries obtaining nuclear weapons. Currently, it is unclear about what this means for the United States’ allies and security partners around the South China Sea. While Trump’s advisors have walked back some of his rhetoric about nuclear weapons proliferation but the possibilities of abandonment and proliferation are now out there and stronger than ever.
Aside from himself, several of Trump’s top foreign policy advisors are known for their pro-Taiwan and anti-China positions, notably Peter Navarro and John Bolton. President-elect Trump’s nominee for the Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon-Mobil offered the most hawkish stance on China yet in his confirmation hearing. Tillerson compared China’s activities in the South China Sea to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and annexing the Crimean Peninsula. Tillerson went on to say he thought the United States should deny China access to the disputed islands it has built and occupied. General James Mattis went on record in his own confirmation hearing as stating that China’s actions in the South China Sea was the third largest threat to the U.S.-led world order today. As a Marine, Mattis no doubt has a strong sense of history and traditional in regards to the United States’ position in the Asia-Pacific. These top administration officials could certainly influence the impressionable President-elect to act more confrontational towards China politically and militarily, in addition to economically, in hotspots like the South China Sea.
Trump’s recent phone call with the President of Taiwan signaled that the reworking of U.S. foreign policy in the larger East Asia region may already be underway by the Trump transition team. Chinese sensitivities regarding Taiwan could cause overreactions across the region, even if the actions begin as unintentionally provocative. Trump’s calls for a 350-ship navy conflict with previously espoused isolationist rhetoric and, while unlikely to achieve, is yet another indication of a more confrontational U.S. military towards China. A more confrontational U.S. towards China in the South China Sea region could also embolden other nations as well. Vietnam, for instance, has a plethora of territorial disputes with China alone, and could become more reckless in its confrontation with China, charged by historical animosity.
Variable Two: CCP’s Reliance on Nationalism for Legitimacy
The way in which nationalism continues to develop in China will have a significant impact on the South China Sea in the next two to three years. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) reliance on nationalism is directly linked to China’s overall economic development. Chinese economic development, as well as the restoration of China’s territorial integrity since the 100 Years of Humiliation comprises the “China Dream.” The CCP’s ability to deliver on both of those goals constitutes their first and second “pillars of legitimacy” for unilaterally ruling China.
The territorial restoration pillar has often been used to compensate for stagnation in domestic standards of living and other economic shortcomings in China. Nationalism in China is a consequence of a deep sense of historical injury, with roots in the 100 Years of Humiliation. After gaining full control over mainland China in 1949, the CCP promised to reclaim the remaining territory around China’s periphery, such as in the South China Sea. The CCP argues that this territory was taken from China during the 100 Years of Humiliation and has made such nationalistic views a core part of the Chinese education system since the 1990s. Nationalism has grown steadily since.
This aggressive nationalism reached a similar apex under Chairman Mao in the 1960’s and 1970’s when China was involved in several small wars and conflicts over territory with little strategic value, focused rather on huge historical significance and pride. After Mao, the Chinese leadership under Deng Xiaoping’s direction was much more willing to settle or ignore territorial disputes in favor of joint or mutual economic gain. This bolstered the concept of a “peaceful rise,” which was later changed to “peaceful development.” This reassurance led to an unprecedented boom in regional economic growth as other regional players fully committed to linking their economies with a peaceful China.
Since 2009, however, China has retreated from a deferential policy, moving towards one of increased assertiveness in its remaining territorial disputes. These disputes include the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the disputed Indo-Chinese border area of Arunachal Pradesh. The East China Sea and Arunachal Pradesh are disputes with Japan and India, respectively. These are two nations that are already very assertive towards China geopolitically. Setbacks in either of these areas have historically led the CCP to ‘double down’ on the South China Sea to distract the Chinese populace, and could continue to have such an influence in the future.
China began a highly-controversial island building program under its assumed ownership in the South China Sea, resulting in 2,900 acres of “new land,” totaling more than all other claimants combined. Thus far, China has remained content to use paramilitary “maritime militias,” maritime police, and Coast Guard units to avoid a truly militarized dispute. The use of police assets, which often have more firepower than the surrounding nations’ naval vessels, implies that the Sea’s waters and features are domestically administered by China rather than treated as a foreign asset. However, it should be noted that Chinese Coast Guard and maritime police units often have more firepower than the surrounding nation’s actual naval vessels. China’s disputes over the islands with its primary opposition in the region, Vietnam and the Philippines, have resulted in a number of nationalistic protests, often encouraged by the CCP, providing a domestic cover for Chinese actions against these countries and forcing them into a vicious policy circle. For example, Vietnam held an exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, which China disputed. In 2014, China moved an oil rig into this zone, forcibly preventing Filipino fisherman from using their traditional fishing grounds in the disputed waters around the Scarborough Shoal.
China’s injured national pride is redeemed in part by the CCP’s strong stance against Vietnam, the Philippines, and their perceived Western backers, which provides robust legitimacy fulfillment. The government has shown that it is even willing to tolerate mass-protest when they have a nationalistic tone. However, these protests have become increasingly difficult to control, limiting China’s bargaining ability once events reach the government’s desirable outcome, for instance if the nations should seek reconciliation over the disputes. The more the CCP relies on this strong sense of nationalism, the more difficulty the party will experience trying to shape and direct it without suffering de-legitimization.
Variable Three: Vietnam and Vietnamese Foreign Policy
Following the Philippines’ efforts to reconcile with China, Vietnam has become the gravitational center of regional opposition to China in the South China Sea. The way in which Vietnam and its own foreign/defense policy develops will have a large impact on how the South China Sea issue develops in the next two to three years.* Signs already indicate that Vietnam will continue to internally balance against China, even if the rest of ASEAN bandwagons with the rising regional power. Vietnam is currently expanding its airstrip on Spratly Island, deploying guided rocket artillery to several islands it controls, and reaching out to numerous major power nations for arms, like Russia and India. Externally, Vietnam is supported by a rapidly-growing security relationship under the present Obama administration. Vietnam also maintains mature security ties with Russia, as well as growing India and Japan, both of which are particularly sensitive nations for Chinese policy-makers.
Vietnam was under Chinese occupation for almost 1,000 years before obtaining its’ independence and resisting new Chinese invasions for another millennium. This historical animosity has played a large factor in burgeoning Vietnamese nationalism and geopolitical hostility towards its northern neighbor. Vietnam has also had the inglorious distinction of being on the losing side of two skirmishes in the South China Sea with China in the past 50 years. One of these skirmishes, occurring in 1974, resulted in the loss of the Paracel Islands, an incident that will not soon be forgotten by Vietnam which as a historical memory as long as China’s. Since 2009, Vietnam has been the subject of particularly controversial actions by China. For example, in 2014, China moved an oil rig into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone near the Paracel Islands. Vietnamese officials firmly believe that the potential energy and mineral deposits in the disputed portions of the South China Sea are essential to the country’s economic prosperity, thus making the oil rig an especially egregious move by China.
http://smallwarsjournal.com/sites/default/files/prcnie1.jpg
Chart One. Vietnamese Arms Expenditure
Chart found at: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/military-expenditure
The oil rig, along with China’s typical modus operandi (Coast Guard, maritime militia, etc.), has spurred Vietnamese attempts to establish its own Anti-Area/Access Denial (A2/AD) zone along its littoral. Vietnam has carried out island building and reclamation work on 27 South China Sea features that it occupies, more than any other claimant. However, its reclamation efforts, when measured by total geological area are still far exceeded by China’s own efforts. In August 2016, Vietnam placed mobile guided rocket launchers on several of its islands in the South China Sea, and has since expressed interest in buying the Russo-Indian BrahMos Cruise Missile for the express purpose of countering China. With moves like this, it is no surprise that Vietnam’s defense budget was expected to have reached $5 billion in 2016 or 2.6% of the gross domestic product, and it is forecasted to exceed $6 billion by 2020.
Variable Four: Evolution of ASEAN
Developments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are the final variables for the South China Sea. ASEAN is typically thought of as a regional economic coalition, but the organization also maintains broader policy stances beyond the scope of solely economic relationships. These broad policies are often referred to as the “ASEAN Way,” which is non-interference in other nation’s affairs, along with the promotion of shared values and a common identity. Despite the policy of non-interference, ASEAN boasts the fastest growing military budgets outside of the Middle East.
ASEAN increasingly views China as an economically exploitive nation, rather than a mutually-beneficial partner. This exploitation, in conjunction with the ASEAN perception that China is carrying out aggressive actions in the South China Sea, led to a more unified ASEAN in balancing against China than had ever previously existed. China has thus far used its’ large economic sway with Cambodia and Laos to prevent an official resolution condemning China’s actions from passing by required unanimous consensus. Cambodia and Laos are the only nations to remain firmly in the Chinese camp and, as the pro-Chinese leadership ages, this loyalty remains in doubt. Military expenditures in Southeast Asia, with the exception of the spending of Brunei and Myanmar', have climbed steadily from $14.4 billion collectively in 2004 to $35.5 billion in 2013, a 147 percentage increase within a decade. Regional military expenditures rose by 10 percent from 2012 to 2013, and expenditures are estimated to have surpassed $40 billion by the end of 2016.
The events of 2016 have cast many previous ASEAN international relations trends, such as their opposition to China, into doubt. The newly-elected president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, signaled that he wished to move away from the current U.S. alliance system to what appears to be a more pro-China, or at least non-aligned, position in East Asia. Duterte has forsaken the Philippines’ legal victory over China in the United Nation’s Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and met with the President of China, Xi Jinping despite the clear implications for current regional security dynamics. This meeting resulted in a $13.5 billion investment deal for the Philippines, promises of join resource development in the South China Sea as well as the possible allowance of Filipino fisherman into contested waters around the Scarborough Shoal. It has not been smooth sailing for the rapprochement between Duterte and Xi. Duterte stated that he would “raise” the South China Sea ruling if China unilaterally began exploiting minerals in the South China Sea. Given Duterte’s displeasure at the perception of being treated as a less-than-equal partner with the United States, his comments on Chinese mineral exploitation insert new uncertainty into the region.
The Sino-Filipino normalization quickly resulted in another defection, Malaysia. Yet another South China Sea claimant and U.S. security partner chose to meet with China’s leadership and agree to negotiate their dispute bilaterally. This agreement resulted in the signing of $34 billion in trade deals and a naval vessel arms sale to Malaysia. The solidarity on issues that ASEAN exhibits is already fragile due to the client-state statuses of Cambodia and Laos. Much of ASEAN is wary of the fickleness of the United States’ presence in the region, as well as the shrinking military parity between the United States and China.
Interplay of Variables
While separate ideas, all four of the key variables in the development of the South China Sea in the upcoming years are interrelated and build upon each other for future national intelligence estimates. The United States’ Asia-Pacific foreign policy under President-elect Trump is the base variable for the estimate closely followed by Chinese nationalism. The United States remains the most powerful nation in the region, thus allowing its regional foreign policy, be it assertive, cooperative, or isolationist, to have a direct effect on every nation in the area and how those countries will conduct their own foreign policies. The amount of U.S. presence in the region, and how that presence evolves, will have an impact on the solidarity of ASEAN, as well as whether its member nations will move towards accommodation with China or continue to rebuke China’s actions in the South China Sea. This relationship, in turn, impacts whether Vietnam feels supported or isolated as it balances against China.
Continued....
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...06-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
(252) 1-07-2017-to-01-13-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...13-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
(253) 1-14-2017-to-01-20-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...20-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
----------
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...lligence-estimate-the-next-two-to-three-years
Tensions in the South China Sea National Intelligence Estimate: The Next Two to Three Years
by Daniel Urchick
Journal Article | January 20, 2017 - 10:21am
Executive Summary
The South China Sea is developing at an extraordinarily rapid rate and the events that transpire in the region in the next two to three years will be some of the most significant geopolitical events in the world.* Inside the South China Sea Region are five claimants, hundreds of contested geological features, and two major clashing superpowers: The United States and China. Four key variables have been identified as the principal factors in determining how the South China Sea will evolve in two to three years: (1) U.S. foreign policy in East Asia under Trump. (2) The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) increasing reliance on nationalism to maintain its legitimacy. (3) Vietnam and the development of its foreign policy. (4) The trend in the unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a collective security organization. It is predicted with a high degree of confidence that tensions in the South China Sea will continue to increase as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy becomes more confrontational with China. This will in turn encourage Vietnam to act more assertively, which in turn will drive Chinese nationalism to new levels. We predict with a medium degree of confidence that the region will take on the characteristics of Finlandization as a weak U.S. economic, as well as a lackluster hard power presence drives the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) towards bandwagoning with an increasingly-aggressive China. Vietnam remains the lone holdout, lashing out from its isolated position. Finally, we predict with a low degree of confidence that the South China Sea will deescalate to the mid-2016 status quo as uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy forces all claimants and peripheral influences to pause and consolidate their positions. Black swan events in the region include a radical change in Indian foreign policy towards China and a radical shift in the China-Russia relationship, for better or worse.
Identification and Elaboration of the Key Variables in the South China Sea’s Development
Variable One: Trump’s Foreign Policy in East and Southeast Asia
The United States’ presence in and around the South China Sea littoral community has been and will continue to be the biggest factor in the region’s development economically, politically, culturally, and militarily. Therefore U.S. foreign policy under President-elect Trump will greatly impact the South China Sea in the next two to three years. Thus far, the presence of the United States has encouraged the many smaller claimants to land and sea territory in the South China Sea to try and remain united against Chinese attempts to claim and administer nearly all of the Sea. Without the United States, the weaker nations around the South China Sea have previously indicated that they would likely have little choice other than to bandwagon with China despite their geopolitical and economic aversions.
While the United States has traditionally been a security provider and economic pillar for the region, the election of Donald J. Trump to the presidency of the United States has cast this historical consistency into doubt. Trump’s foreign policy on the South China Sea has yet to be fully articulated days before his inauguration. This is a critical unknown for the multitude of nations balancing against China’s perceived aggression in the region and places a great deal of stress upon already buckling leadership. Trump personally has expressed isolationist tendencies in foreign policy, but has also voiced economic hostility towards China. That said, the presumed failure of the Trans-Pacific Partnership removes the best possible way the United States can challenge China’s attempts to dominate the regional economy. Trump has indicated that he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods to at least 35 percent in order to bolster the United States’ domestic manufacturing sector, increasing the possibility of mutually harmful trade wars.
Recent Tweets from Trump’s account, directed at China and the South China Sea, further indicate that Trump may be willing to forgo the United States’ historic non-committal stance in the dispute. On December 4, 2016, he wrote in two consecutive Tweets:
“Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into…their country (the U.S. doesn't tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea?* I don't think so!”
The language of this Twitter tirade indicates that Trump believes that China should ask the United States for permission to carry out its actions in the South China Sea. Trump has also expressed that he believes that nations like South Korea and Japan, which benefit from the U.S. ‘security blanket’, are not contributing to fairly to their own security and have thus given legitimacy to ‘blanket’s’ removal. Trump also expressed support, or at the least indifference, towards the idea of Japan and other countries obtaining nuclear weapons. Currently, it is unclear about what this means for the United States’ allies and security partners around the South China Sea. While Trump’s advisors have walked back some of his rhetoric about nuclear weapons proliferation but the possibilities of abandonment and proliferation are now out there and stronger than ever.
Aside from himself, several of Trump’s top foreign policy advisors are known for their pro-Taiwan and anti-China positions, notably Peter Navarro and John Bolton. President-elect Trump’s nominee for the Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon-Mobil offered the most hawkish stance on China yet in his confirmation hearing. Tillerson compared China’s activities in the South China Sea to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and annexing the Crimean Peninsula. Tillerson went on to say he thought the United States should deny China access to the disputed islands it has built and occupied. General James Mattis went on record in his own confirmation hearing as stating that China’s actions in the South China Sea was the third largest threat to the U.S.-led world order today. As a Marine, Mattis no doubt has a strong sense of history and traditional in regards to the United States’ position in the Asia-Pacific. These top administration officials could certainly influence the impressionable President-elect to act more confrontational towards China politically and militarily, in addition to economically, in hotspots like the South China Sea.
Trump’s recent phone call with the President of Taiwan signaled that the reworking of U.S. foreign policy in the larger East Asia region may already be underway by the Trump transition team. Chinese sensitivities regarding Taiwan could cause overreactions across the region, even if the actions begin as unintentionally provocative. Trump’s calls for a 350-ship navy conflict with previously espoused isolationist rhetoric and, while unlikely to achieve, is yet another indication of a more confrontational U.S. military towards China. A more confrontational U.S. towards China in the South China Sea region could also embolden other nations as well. Vietnam, for instance, has a plethora of territorial disputes with China alone, and could become more reckless in its confrontation with China, charged by historical animosity.
Variable Two: CCP’s Reliance on Nationalism for Legitimacy
The way in which nationalism continues to develop in China will have a significant impact on the South China Sea in the next two to three years. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) reliance on nationalism is directly linked to China’s overall economic development. Chinese economic development, as well as the restoration of China’s territorial integrity since the 100 Years of Humiliation comprises the “China Dream.” The CCP’s ability to deliver on both of those goals constitutes their first and second “pillars of legitimacy” for unilaterally ruling China.
The territorial restoration pillar has often been used to compensate for stagnation in domestic standards of living and other economic shortcomings in China. Nationalism in China is a consequence of a deep sense of historical injury, with roots in the 100 Years of Humiliation. After gaining full control over mainland China in 1949, the CCP promised to reclaim the remaining territory around China’s periphery, such as in the South China Sea. The CCP argues that this territory was taken from China during the 100 Years of Humiliation and has made such nationalistic views a core part of the Chinese education system since the 1990s. Nationalism has grown steadily since.
This aggressive nationalism reached a similar apex under Chairman Mao in the 1960’s and 1970’s when China was involved in several small wars and conflicts over territory with little strategic value, focused rather on huge historical significance and pride. After Mao, the Chinese leadership under Deng Xiaoping’s direction was much more willing to settle or ignore territorial disputes in favor of joint or mutual economic gain. This bolstered the concept of a “peaceful rise,” which was later changed to “peaceful development.” This reassurance led to an unprecedented boom in regional economic growth as other regional players fully committed to linking their economies with a peaceful China.
Since 2009, however, China has retreated from a deferential policy, moving towards one of increased assertiveness in its remaining territorial disputes. These disputes include the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the disputed Indo-Chinese border area of Arunachal Pradesh. The East China Sea and Arunachal Pradesh are disputes with Japan and India, respectively. These are two nations that are already very assertive towards China geopolitically. Setbacks in either of these areas have historically led the CCP to ‘double down’ on the South China Sea to distract the Chinese populace, and could continue to have such an influence in the future.
China began a highly-controversial island building program under its assumed ownership in the South China Sea, resulting in 2,900 acres of “new land,” totaling more than all other claimants combined. Thus far, China has remained content to use paramilitary “maritime militias,” maritime police, and Coast Guard units to avoid a truly militarized dispute. The use of police assets, which often have more firepower than the surrounding nations’ naval vessels, implies that the Sea’s waters and features are domestically administered by China rather than treated as a foreign asset. However, it should be noted that Chinese Coast Guard and maritime police units often have more firepower than the surrounding nation’s actual naval vessels. China’s disputes over the islands with its primary opposition in the region, Vietnam and the Philippines, have resulted in a number of nationalistic protests, often encouraged by the CCP, providing a domestic cover for Chinese actions against these countries and forcing them into a vicious policy circle. For example, Vietnam held an exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, which China disputed. In 2014, China moved an oil rig into this zone, forcibly preventing Filipino fisherman from using their traditional fishing grounds in the disputed waters around the Scarborough Shoal.
China’s injured national pride is redeemed in part by the CCP’s strong stance against Vietnam, the Philippines, and their perceived Western backers, which provides robust legitimacy fulfillment. The government has shown that it is even willing to tolerate mass-protest when they have a nationalistic tone. However, these protests have become increasingly difficult to control, limiting China’s bargaining ability once events reach the government’s desirable outcome, for instance if the nations should seek reconciliation over the disputes. The more the CCP relies on this strong sense of nationalism, the more difficulty the party will experience trying to shape and direct it without suffering de-legitimization.
Variable Three: Vietnam and Vietnamese Foreign Policy
Following the Philippines’ efforts to reconcile with China, Vietnam has become the gravitational center of regional opposition to China in the South China Sea. The way in which Vietnam and its own foreign/defense policy develops will have a large impact on how the South China Sea issue develops in the next two to three years.* Signs already indicate that Vietnam will continue to internally balance against China, even if the rest of ASEAN bandwagons with the rising regional power. Vietnam is currently expanding its airstrip on Spratly Island, deploying guided rocket artillery to several islands it controls, and reaching out to numerous major power nations for arms, like Russia and India. Externally, Vietnam is supported by a rapidly-growing security relationship under the present Obama administration. Vietnam also maintains mature security ties with Russia, as well as growing India and Japan, both of which are particularly sensitive nations for Chinese policy-makers.
Vietnam was under Chinese occupation for almost 1,000 years before obtaining its’ independence and resisting new Chinese invasions for another millennium. This historical animosity has played a large factor in burgeoning Vietnamese nationalism and geopolitical hostility towards its northern neighbor. Vietnam has also had the inglorious distinction of being on the losing side of two skirmishes in the South China Sea with China in the past 50 years. One of these skirmishes, occurring in 1974, resulted in the loss of the Paracel Islands, an incident that will not soon be forgotten by Vietnam which as a historical memory as long as China’s. Since 2009, Vietnam has been the subject of particularly controversial actions by China. For example, in 2014, China moved an oil rig into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone near the Paracel Islands. Vietnamese officials firmly believe that the potential energy and mineral deposits in the disputed portions of the South China Sea are essential to the country’s economic prosperity, thus making the oil rig an especially egregious move by China.
http://smallwarsjournal.com/sites/default/files/prcnie1.jpg
Chart One. Vietnamese Arms Expenditure
Chart found at: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/military-expenditure
The oil rig, along with China’s typical modus operandi (Coast Guard, maritime militia, etc.), has spurred Vietnamese attempts to establish its own Anti-Area/Access Denial (A2/AD) zone along its littoral. Vietnam has carried out island building and reclamation work on 27 South China Sea features that it occupies, more than any other claimant. However, its reclamation efforts, when measured by total geological area are still far exceeded by China’s own efforts. In August 2016, Vietnam placed mobile guided rocket launchers on several of its islands in the South China Sea, and has since expressed interest in buying the Russo-Indian BrahMos Cruise Missile for the express purpose of countering China. With moves like this, it is no surprise that Vietnam’s defense budget was expected to have reached $5 billion in 2016 or 2.6% of the gross domestic product, and it is forecasted to exceed $6 billion by 2020.
Variable Four: Evolution of ASEAN
Developments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are the final variables for the South China Sea. ASEAN is typically thought of as a regional economic coalition, but the organization also maintains broader policy stances beyond the scope of solely economic relationships. These broad policies are often referred to as the “ASEAN Way,” which is non-interference in other nation’s affairs, along with the promotion of shared values and a common identity. Despite the policy of non-interference, ASEAN boasts the fastest growing military budgets outside of the Middle East.
ASEAN increasingly views China as an economically exploitive nation, rather than a mutually-beneficial partner. This exploitation, in conjunction with the ASEAN perception that China is carrying out aggressive actions in the South China Sea, led to a more unified ASEAN in balancing against China than had ever previously existed. China has thus far used its’ large economic sway with Cambodia and Laos to prevent an official resolution condemning China’s actions from passing by required unanimous consensus. Cambodia and Laos are the only nations to remain firmly in the Chinese camp and, as the pro-Chinese leadership ages, this loyalty remains in doubt. Military expenditures in Southeast Asia, with the exception of the spending of Brunei and Myanmar', have climbed steadily from $14.4 billion collectively in 2004 to $35.5 billion in 2013, a 147 percentage increase within a decade. Regional military expenditures rose by 10 percent from 2012 to 2013, and expenditures are estimated to have surpassed $40 billion by the end of 2016.
The events of 2016 have cast many previous ASEAN international relations trends, such as their opposition to China, into doubt. The newly-elected president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, signaled that he wished to move away from the current U.S. alliance system to what appears to be a more pro-China, or at least non-aligned, position in East Asia. Duterte has forsaken the Philippines’ legal victory over China in the United Nation’s Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and met with the President of China, Xi Jinping despite the clear implications for current regional security dynamics. This meeting resulted in a $13.5 billion investment deal for the Philippines, promises of join resource development in the South China Sea as well as the possible allowance of Filipino fisherman into contested waters around the Scarborough Shoal. It has not been smooth sailing for the rapprochement between Duterte and Xi. Duterte stated that he would “raise” the South China Sea ruling if China unilaterally began exploiting minerals in the South China Sea. Given Duterte’s displeasure at the perception of being treated as a less-than-equal partner with the United States, his comments on Chinese mineral exploitation insert new uncertainty into the region.
The Sino-Filipino normalization quickly resulted in another defection, Malaysia. Yet another South China Sea claimant and U.S. security partner chose to meet with China’s leadership and agree to negotiate their dispute bilaterally. This agreement resulted in the signing of $34 billion in trade deals and a naval vessel arms sale to Malaysia. The solidarity on issues that ASEAN exhibits is already fragile due to the client-state statuses of Cambodia and Laos. Much of ASEAN is wary of the fickleness of the United States’ presence in the region, as well as the shrinking military parity between the United States and China.
Interplay of Variables
While separate ideas, all four of the key variables in the development of the South China Sea in the upcoming years are interrelated and build upon each other for future national intelligence estimates. The United States’ Asia-Pacific foreign policy under President-elect Trump is the base variable for the estimate closely followed by Chinese nationalism. The United States remains the most powerful nation in the region, thus allowing its regional foreign policy, be it assertive, cooperative, or isolationist, to have a direct effect on every nation in the area and how those countries will conduct their own foreign policies. The amount of U.S. presence in the region, and how that presence evolves, will have an impact on the solidarity of ASEAN, as well as whether its member nations will move towards accommodation with China or continue to rebuke China’s actions in the South China Sea. This relationship, in turn, impacts whether Vietnam feels supported or isolated as it balances against China.
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