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http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/turkey-syria-government-military-strategy.html
The Pulse of the Middle East
TURKEY PULSE
TÜRKÝYE'NÝN NABZI
Turkish armored personnel carriers drive toward Syria in the Turkish border town of Karkamis in Gaziantep province, Aug. 27, 2016. *(photo by*REUTERS/Umit Bektas)
What is Turkey’s military strategy in Syria?
Flying back from New York, where he addressed the UN General Assembly's annual meeting, President Recep*Tayyip Erdogan told*reporters on his plane that Turkey would participate in a US-led operation against the Islamic State (IS) stronghold of Raqqa, provided Syrian Kurdish fighters from the People's Protection Units (YPG) are not involved in it.
Summary
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent statement once again revealed that Ankara's priority in Syria is not fighting against the Islamic State, but rather stopping Kurds' advances.
Author
Semih Idiz
Posted
September 27, 2016
His remarks revealed once again that stopping advances in Syria by the YPG — whose fighters form the bulk of the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — remains Ankara’s main priority.
Erdogan nevertheless continues to row against the current with regard to the YPG and its mother organization, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), both of which Ankara says are terrorist groups linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
Washington*has consistently refused to accept Turkey’s position, making it clear that it considers the YPG to be its ally in Syria and the most viable force*against IS. Much to Ankara’s annoyance, the United States*is also continuing to arm the YPG as preparations to liberate Raqqa gather steam.
Erdogan’s remarks show once again that Ankara’s Syria policy is still based on unrealistic conditions that have left Turkey largely isolated as it tries to cope with negative fallout from this crisis. Insisting fruitlessly for a long time that toppling Bashar al-Assad*— and not fighting IS*— should be the main focus, Ankara ended up by painting itself into a corner that it is still trying to get out of.
Turkey’s “conditional” approach to Syria, which is now revealing itself over the question of the Syrian Kurds, remains the main obstacle preventing it from working much more closely and effectively with its NATO allies under a viable strategy.
“Our foreign minister and other officials are discussing Raqqa [with the United States]. But it is not possible to say anything at this stage because we can’t see the US*position clearly yet,” Erdogan told reporters en route from New York over the weekend.
“Of course, if the United States wants to do the Raqqa operation with the PYD and YPG, we as Turkey will not take part in this operation. But if they exclude the PYD and YPG from this affair, then of course we can join this struggle together with the United States,” Erdogan added.
According to Abdulkadir Selvi, a columnist for the daily Hurriyet who was on Erdogan’s plane, Ankara is proposing that Turkish-supported fighters from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which Turkish officials maintain is around 65,000 strong now, should replace YPG fighters, and that Turkish jets should fly alongside US jets to free Raqqa.
The FSA, however, has not proved itself to be a viable replacement for the YPG. Its speedy liberation of the town of Jarablus with Turkish military support, after Turkish forces entered Syria on*Aug. 24, and rapid advances along the Turkish border had more to do with the withdrawal of IS from the region to the town of al-Bab*than with the military successes of the FSA.
Analysts also say that the rapid advance in the region by Turkish forces and the FSA would not have been possible if the*United States*had not provided air support, and had Russia not decided to allow this to happen, because Washington and Moscow also wanted the Turkish border region to be cleared of IS.
Erdogan says Turkey’s next target is al-Bab, another IS stronghold south of Jarablus that the YPG is also trying to get to before Turkey and the FSA. Military analysts, however, indicate that liberating al-Bab will require serious fighting that the FSA is not capable of doing on its own.
This is why Ankara is seeking US support for this operation, but appears not to have secured it yet. US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has made it clear that they do not want to see Turkish forces and the FSA moving south toward*al-Bab.
Washington*suspects that Turkey’s intentions here have more to do with blocking the YPG than fighting IS. Ankara, for its part, is aware that it can’t take al-Bab on its own without heavy losses. Tellingly, Selvi also reported that Ankara is in no hurry to move on al-Bab.
Washington and other members of the US-led coalition are also cool toward*Turkey’s participation in the operation to liberate Raqqa. Turkey’s recent rapprochement with Russia does not provide Ankara with any advantages on this score either.
Moscow*is also not keen to see Turkish forces and the FSA advancing farther south in Syria, especially toward*Aleppo, which Russian and Syrian jets have started bombing relentlessly again.
Retired Turkish Ambassador Ali Tuygan, a former Foreign Ministry undersecretary, believes Turkey is caught again without a clear strategy in Syria. “It is not clear what its plans are and how it hopes to achieve these,” Tuygan told Al-Monitor.
Pointing out that “Turkey did not have a PYD problem five years ago,” Tuygan said Ankara’s main problem was to convince the United States*and Russia about its intentions in Syria. “It says it is fighting IS but it is not clear how it will do this. There are limits to what it can do by itself. It does not have a magic wand with which it can realize its aims,” Tuygan said.
Retired Ambassador Faruk Logoglu, whose former posts include Washington*and who has also served as Foreign Ministry undersecretary, is also unclear about Ankara’s aims.
“When Turkey first went into Syria, its declared target was to clear the border region from IS. This was understandable. Its operation also prevented the PYD from establishing a Kurdish corridor along the Turkish border,” Logoglu told Al-Monitor.
“It is uncertain, however, what it aims to achieve when it says it will move farther south by 45 kilometers [28 miles]. Is its intention to prevent the PYD or to establish a safe zone? And if it moves south, how does it hope to hold on to territory there, even with 100 tanks, given that this is an asymmetric war,” Logoglu asked.
Logoglu also expects Turkey to meet opposition from the United States, Russia*and Iran if it insists on pushing southward. “We are dealing with an open-ended situation that is fraught with many risks,” Logoglu said.
Meanwhile, the call by US Secretary of State John Kerry at the United Nations*last week for what amounts to a no-fly zone in key areas of Syria*in order to de-escalate the fighting and facilitate aid to beleaguered civilians*was latched on to by government circles in Ankara. They said this showed that Washington is coming around to Turkey’s position on Syria.
Turkey*has been demanding a safe zone in Syria for civilians and as protection from regime aircraft. It was quick to maintain a “we told you so” attitude after Kerry’s suggestion, but there is little in this suggestion that Ankara can rely on, since the Assad regime and Russia are likely to reject it.
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Comments 15
Thomas • 2 days ago
First of all, putting Turkey and Strategy un the sae sentence is an oxymoron. Turkey, as the facts show, has no strategy. The only strategy they have is whatever Erdow thinks or feels that day. As soon as Russia gave the OK for Turkish tanks to go into Jarablous Turkey send 15 trucks ahead of the tanks with razor blades and FSA outfits.So all ISIS fighters didnt really go to Al Bab. They jut shaved their beards and changed their clothes and became FSA. All this support for ISIS will come back to bite. It is easy to get into the Syrian war but very hard to get out. LOL
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Baris Kochand Thomas • a day ago
Your claim is simply not true. ISIS is firing rockets into Turkish town Kilis and destroying Turkish tanks. Why would Turkey support ISIS and allow them to stay in the area when they are killing and wounding Turkish citizens and are clearly a threat to Turkey?
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Artin Baris Kochand • 19 hours ago
Turkey is ISIS
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Baris Kochand Artin • 19 hours ago
Only to those who refuse to understand
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RealPolitik Baris Kochand • 6 hours ago
You're wasting your time persuading people over that point on this forum. A couple of those who argue that, I believe do so based on their interactions with Turks in Europe who aren't looked on too favorably especially in Germany & I wouldn't be surprised were bullied growing up.
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laura santiago • 14 hours ago
Turkey is flat out broke. The unemployment rate is 10.2%. Mr. Erdogan is understandably detracting the Turkish citizenry with bloated patriotism. Issues such as the tourism has been flattened by a substantial drop in visitors. Turkey is imminently facing internal discord, subsequent to the coup. To date, no one has been brought forth to face criminal prosecution. Its a net all situation that has created more confusion than what was initially intended to be. By now, Mr. Erdogan should have constructed a clear and viable plan for Turkey and her people; but, he continues to charge like an old blind bull. His testosterone is flagrantly out of control because he wants to play with the big boys; however, infiltrating Syria is yet another blunder, when the aforementioned should be taking precedence. Additionally, while terrorism by the Kurds is unacceptable, he needs to forge a plan where the country finally is at peace and everyone is rolled into the process of "belonging" and becoming an active member of society. It appears that Erdogan thrives for discord and discontent which breeds for the likes of a socio-psychopath.
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dutchnational • a day ago
As remarked by a lot of people, including me, Turkey lacks a clear strategy based upon a realistic assessment of aims, means, risks etc and which takes into account the same of other relevant players.
Turkey also lacks an exit strategy.
Because of this lack Turkey is totally dependent upon the wiles of Erdogan, a very unstable person not reigned in by sounder minds.
As such Turkey is almost in the position of ancient Rome : The emperor is singing while the city burns.
Lastly, by making his sole aim to thwart the YPG/PYD, now SDF, it is letting them set the agenda and he can only react to their moves, unless to directly invades Rojava itself, which means wading into quicksand without a rope.
A side note is that there is no FSA army, only extremists and though the sum of those might be 75.000, they cannot focus on Raqqah without giving the rest of Syria to Assad, which they will not but would make Assad very happy.
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Relentless dutchnational • 15 hours ago
You would be right, if you had talked about 2 months ago.
It seems to me that the Syrian strategy has been formed anew, apparently under military dogmas and supervision.
Turkey has a very clear agenda: No matter what, do not let YPG control the entire North Syria and form a corridor that cuts Turkey from the Southern lands.
The military commanders have understood the dire consequences of such.
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Supreme Allied Condista • a day ago
This is why Ankara is seeking US support for this operation, but appears not to have secured it yet. US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has made it clear that they do not want to see Turkish forces and the FSA moving south toward al-Bab.
No that's not correct. Carter's important warning was about the Turkish military going south yes but specifically into YPG/SDF-held Manbij. Carter has no business warning Turkey against moving south-west to take ISIS-held al-Bab, carefully avoiding YPG/SDF held Manbij.
Al-Bab is not to the south but rather to the south-west of Jarablus.
VOA: Carter Calls on Turkey to 'Stay Focused' on Islamic State
"The United States was very supportive, and is very supportive of their [Turkey's] general counter-ISIL activities and everything they did to secure the area between the border and Jarablus and then westward, but not south of Jarablus," Carter told reporters Monday at the Pentagon, using an acronym for Islamic State.
It may be that Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) commanders at the Pentagon have fears that hoping and waiting for Turkey to take Al-Bab has risks or delays associated with such a plan. OIR commanders may well have had in mind the YPG/SDF taking al-Bab but I do not think that is the best plan with a view to the long term goal of taking Raqqa, ousting ISIS from their base there.
Indeed with the dithering of Ankara in delaying to deploy the Turkish infantry in Syria we can see the risks and delays playing out so OIR commanders have a point.
However, those risks or delays are, I believe, manageable and if necessary the anti-ISIS coalition supreme commander must overrule even Carter and OIR commanders to order that Turkey be invited, given priority and urged to take al-Bab, as quickly as possible and with no further dithering and delay.
Turkey taking al-Bab is required for strategic reasons of the requirement to keep open a front for Turkey's armed forces to attack ISIS.
Turkey's army must be kept in the fight against ISIS and not obstructed by YPG/SDF forces.
I certainly would be in favour of placing Turkish invasion forces under supranational command - Operation Inherent Resolve - or NATO Rapid Deployable Corps - Turkey, so as to speed up the movement of Turkish forces which is unacceptably stalled because of the ineptitude of the Erdogan's defence minister, foolishly relying on the FSA who are not able for the task.
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charliematerne • 17 hours ago
The PYD and YPG are battle testeISI
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krmcn • a day ago
Perhaps this is why it's untested (along with the fact that Erdogan means a bunch of Al Qaeda-aligned Salafasts):
The Free Syrian Army was a faction in the initial stages of the Syrian Civil War founded on 29 July 2011 by officers of the Syrian Armed Forces who said their goal was to bring down the Assad government and in late 2011 considered the main military defectors group. From July 2012 onward, ill-discipline and infighting weakened FSA, while jihadist groups became dominant within the armed opposition. As of 2016, the term "Free Syrian Army" does not denote any form of coherent organization, but has become a promotional label which militia factions in the Syrian Civil War arbitrarily use or reject. It is associated with a warlordist form of political power arrangements.
--Wikipedia
C'mon, Semih Bey, you used to be better than this.
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Supreme Allied Condista • a day ago
My battleplan for taking Raqqa separates the Turkish military from the Kurdish YPG and associated Syrian Democratic Forces - SDF - approaching Raqqa on different, well-separated fronts and assuming Turkey can get its forces to Raqqa first, then there would be "no involvement of Kurds" in the taking of Raqqa itself, reducing the YPG/SDF to the role of mopping up ISIS fighters who flee from the Turkish forces taking Raqqa, escaping to the north, towards Rojava - Kurdish-held territory in northern Syria, east of the Euphrates.
But that's the best I can do to meet Erdogan's objections to the Kurds - YPG. I won't allow the YPG to be written out of my batteplans altogether.
If Erdogan wants to minimise Kurdish involvement then he needs to maximise Turkish involvement and get a move on. Hurry up.
The more Erdogan delays with 41,000 Turkish troops "on stand by" in Turkey and not actually joining battle in taking Al-Bab, the more he is writing himself and possibly Turkey out of influence in the international anti-ISIS coalition and the more he is leaving the YPG and SDF as the only option left for the anti-ISIS coalition, guaranteeing the Kurdish YPG role in taking Raqqa and becoming the world's heroes.
So quit stalling Erdogan and get your troops moving, taking al-Bab. Otherwise, we'll be wanting the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve or NATO to take command of Turkish invasion forces.
The best anti-ISIS scenario now is for Turkish-backed forces -
- right now that's Rebels/FSA but in the near future I would hope to strengthen those forces with either the 41,000 Turkish troops reported to be "on stand by" at the border or with the NATO Rapid Deployable Corps - Turkey (NRDC-T), assuming all necessary political consents are granted (especially Turkey & NATO - no veto by Assad) -
- to take Al-Bab then push east-southeast towards Al-Khafsah.
It's really important for the anti-ISIS coalition that we keep a front line for fighting between Turkish-backed forces and ISIS - to be sure not to block Turkish-backed forces advancing versus ISIS because we will need Turkish-backed forces to advance deeply into Syria to attack Raqqa from the south.
The worst scenario for the anti-ISIS coalition would be SDF/YPG obstructing the Turkish-backed forces and for skirmishing to develop between Rebels/FSA and SDF/YPG when, really, the focus must be kept laser-like on the fight with ISIS.
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ecotrails Supreme Allied Condista • a day ago
Turkish forces, including their jihadist allies the all encompasing FSA are not required at all other than to keep a corridor for sunni muslims to have final say in resolutions.
I would hope that Erdogan has enough faculty left to realise that Rojava cantons can be joined along with agreement for through passage of aid and support to legitimate sunnis not the murderous and unstable jihadists.
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Supreme Allied Condista ecotrails • 16 hours ago
Turkish forces are required, to take Al-Bab then to take Raqqa via a corridor for the Turkish army, west and south of the Euphrates, as illustrated in my
TAKE RAQQA BATTLEPLAN
which you can view on a post on my Supreme Allied Condista column on Newsvine at the web address which can be formed by reconstructing this text.
supremealliedcondista. newsvine. com/ _news/2016/09/08/36062818-take-raqqa-battleplan-2016
I would hope that Erdogan has enough faculty left to realise that Rojava cantons can be joined along with agreement for through passage of aid and support to legitimate sunnis not the murderous and unstable jihadists.
I hope vice versa - that Turkish forces take Al-Bab and then Kurds and citizens of the Rojava cantons can enjoy through passage of aid and support, with agreement with Turkey.
As I have explained in another post here, it is better for the battleplan to take Raqqa from ISIS that Al-Bab is taken by Turkish forces, rather than by YPG/SDF.
Erdogan often disappoints so perhaps neither of us should place our hopes in him personally but in wiser Turkish heads!
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ilker • 17 hours ago
You have to ask why is the united states against turkish army taking al bab, why is the americans not supporting turkish army as a ally is supposedly should.
The americans betrayed the opposition FSA, Politically and militarily, instead america supported the PYG, PKK Twin, arming them to fight so called isil, those weapons ended up in pkk hands. So you have a situation where the americans are arming terrorists and creating security threats to a so called ally ie turkey, america, gave Russia and Assad a free hand to slaughter syrians and jihaddists, after the americans attacked assad forces, and broke the cease fire, their bombed they aid convoys, who suffered as a result the innocent syrians, while the super powers play they games, the syrians just keep dieing.
This civil war started out as syrians wanting their civil rights, peacefully protesting, taken over by outside jihaddists including isil, which began its sectarian killings and ethnic cleansing.
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