WAR 09-16-2017-to-09-22-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

(286) 08-26-2017-to-09-01-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...9-01-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(287) 09-02-2017-to-09-08-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...9-08-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(288) 09-09-2017-to-09-15-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...9-15-2017___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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Hummm....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...role-for-militant-linked-groups-idUSKCN1BR02F

SEPTEMBER 15, 2017 / 7:06 PM / UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO

Pakistan army pushed political role for militant-linked groups

Asif Shahzad
7 MIN READ

LAHORE, Pakistan (Reuters) - A new Pakistani political party controlled by an Islamist with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head is backing a candidate in a by-election on Sunday, in what a former senior army officer says is a key step in a military-proposed plan to mainstream militant groups.

The Milli Muslim League party loyal to Hafiz Saeed - who the United States and India accuse of masterminding the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people - has little chance of seeing its favored candidate win the seat vacated when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was removed from office by the Supreme Court in July.

But the foray into politics by Saeed’s Islamist charity is following a blueprint that Sharif himself rejected when the military proposed it last year, retired Lieutenant General Amjad Shuaib told Reuters.

Three close Sharif confidants with knowledge of the discussions confirmed that Sharif had opposed the “mainstreaming” plan, which senior military figures and some analysts see as a way of steering ultra-religious groups away from violent jihad.

“We have to separate those elements who are peaceful from the elements who are picking up weapons,” Shuaib said.

Pakistan’s powerful military has long been accused of fostering militant groups as proxy fighters opposing neighboring arch-enemy India, a charge the army denies.

“PATRIOTIC PEOPLE”

Saeed’s religious charity launched the Milli Muslim League party within two weeks after the court ousted Sharif over corruption allegations.

Yaqoob Sheikh, the Lahore candidate for Milli Muslim League, is standing as an independent after the Electoral Commission said the party was not yet legally registered.

But Saeed’s lieutenants, JUD workers and Milli Muslim League officials are running his campaign and portraits of Saeed adorn every poster promoting Sheikh.

Another Islamist designated a terrorist by the United States, Fazlur Rehman Khalil, has told Reuters he too plans to soon form his own party to advocate strict Islamic law.

“God willing, we will come into the mainstream - our country right now needs patriotic people,” Khalil said, vowing to turn Pakistan into a state government by strict Islamic law.

Saeed’s charity and Khalil’s Ansar ul-Umma organization are both seen by the United States as fronts for militant groups the army has been accused of sponsoring. The military denies any policy of encouraging radical groups.

Both Islamist groups deny their political ambitions were engineered by the military. The official army spokesman was not available for comment after queries were sent to the press wing.

Still, hundreds of MML supporters, waving posters of Saeed and demanding his release from house arrest, chanted “Long live Hafiz Saeed! Long live the Pakistan army!” at political rallies during the past week.

“Anyone who is India’s friend is a traitor, a traitor,” went another campaign slogan, a reference to Sharif’s attempts to improve relations with long-time foe India that was a source of tension with the military.

‘DERADICALISATION’ PLAN

Both Saeed and Khalil are proponents of a strict interpretation of Islam and have a history of supporting violence - each man was reportedly a signatory to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden’s 1998 fatwa declaring war on the United States.

They have since established religious groups that they say are unconnected to violence, though the United States maintains those groups are fronts for funnelling money and fighters to militants targeting India.

Analyst Khaled Ahmed, who has researched Saeed’s Jamaat-ud-Dawa charity and its connections to the military, says the new political party is clearly an attempt by the generals to pursue an alternative to dismantling its militant proxies.

“One thing is the army wants these guys to survive,” Ahmed said. “The other thing is that they want to also balance the politicians who are more and more inclined to normalize relations with India.”

The military’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency first began pushing the political mainstreaming plan in April 2016, according to retired general Shuaib, a former director of the army’s military intelligence wing that is separate from the ISI.

He said the proposal was shared with him in writing by the then-ISI chief, adding that he himself had spoken with Khalil as well as Saeed in an unofficial capacity about the plan.

“Fazlur Rehman Khalil was very positive. Hafiz Saeed was very positive,” Shuaib said. “My conversation with them was just to confirm those things which I had been told by the ISI and other people.”

Saeed has been under house arrest since January at his house in the eastern city of Lahore. The United States has offered a $10 million reward for information leading to his conviction over the Mumbai attacks.

Then-Prime Minister Sharif, however, was strongly against the military’s mainstreaming plan, according to Shuaib and three members of Sharif’s inner circle, including one who was in some of the tense meetings over the issue.

Sharif wanted to completely dismantle groups like JuD. Disagreement on what to do about anti-India proxy fighters was a major source of rancour with the military, according to one of the close Sharif confidants.

In recent weeks several senior figures from the ruling PML-N party have publicly implied that elements of the military - which has run Pakistan for almost half its modern history and previously ousted Sharif in a 1999 coup - had a hand in the court ouster of Sharif, a charge both the army and the court reject.

A representative of the PML-N, which last month replaced him as prime minister with close ally Shahid Khaqi Abbasi, said the party was “not aware” of any mainstreaming plan being brought to the table.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...vernment-forces-cross-euphrates-idUSKCN1BQ269

SEPTEMBER 15, 2017 / 8:39 AM / UPDATED 8 HOURS AGO

U.S.-backed Syrian fighters say will not let government forces cross Euphrates

Tom Perry, Sarah Dadouch
6 MIN READ

BEIRUT (Reuters) - U.S.-backed Syrian militias will not let government forces cross the Euphrates River in their bid to recover eastern Syria, their commander said on Friday, but Russia said army units had already done so near the city of Deir al-Zor.

An aide to President Bashar al-Assad meanwhile said the government would fight any force, including U.S.-backed militias, in efforts to recapture the rest of the country.

Syrian government forces supported by Russian air strikes and Iran-backed militias, and a U.S.-backed alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters, are converging on Islamic State in separate offensives around Deir al-Zor.

The government side has advanced into the city from the west. Last week, they broke an Islamic State siege of the provincial capital, which sits on the western bank of the river.

The Deir al-Zor military council, fighting as part of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has meanwhile advanced toward Deir al-Zor from the eastern side of the river since launching an offensive into the province a week ago.

Military council commander Ahmed Abu Khawla warned government forces and their militia allies against firing across the river as his fighters close in -- something he said had happened in recent days.

“Now we have 3 km between us and the eastern riverbank, once our forces reach the area, any shot fired into that area we will consider an attack on the military council,” he said.

“We have notified the regime and Russia that we are coming to the Euphrates riverbank, and they can see our forces advancing,” he said. “We do not allow the regime or its militias to cross to the eastern riverbank.”

But Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the Syrian army had already crossed.

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Assad aide says Syria will fight any force, including U.S.-backed militias

Russia: Syria government forces now on east bank of Euphrates river

“The suburbs of this provincial center (Deir al-Zor) have been liberated. Advance units have successfully crossed the Euphrates and are holding positions on its eastern bank,” she said, without specifying where.

Abu Khawla said this was “mere propaganda ... no one has crossed.”

Assad aide Bouthaina Shaaban later said the Syrian government was ready to fight the SDF.

“Whether it’s the Syrian Democratic Forces, or Daesh (Islamic State) or any illegitimate foreign force in the country ... we will fight and work against them so our land is freed completely from any aggressor,” she said in an interview with Hezbollah’s Al Manar TV.

“I‘m not saying this will happen tomorrow ... but this is the strategic intent,” she said, dismissing suggestions that Washington and Moscow’s military decisions would decide Syria’s fate.

The Russian- and U.S.-backed campaigns against Islamic State in Syria have mostly stayed out of each other’s way as the sides seek to avoid conflict, with the Euphrates often acting as a dividing line between the sides. Talks have been underway to extend a formal demarcation line that has separated the campaigns, officials have said.

The SDF accused Syrian government forces of attacking its positions near the town of Tabqa in Raqqa province and the United States shot down a Syrian government warplane in June.

Abu Khawla said a civilian administration would be set up to run areas of Deir al-Zor province captured from Islamic State by his fighters, including oil fields. The Syrian government was “not fit to lead and rule the people”, he said.

Oil-rich Deir al-Zor province is Islamic State’s last major foothold in Syria and Iraq. It is bisected by the Euphrates River and abuts Iraq.

“MOVING FORCEFULLY AND QUICKLY”

“Every village around the eastern riverbank of the Euphrates river until the Iraqi-Syrian border is a goal for our forces,” he said. “We are moving forcefully and quickly. We do not have a timeline, but we hope soon to free the entire eastern bank.”

Reflecting the demarcation line, the U.S.-led coalition said on Thursday the SDF was not planning to enter Deir al-Zor city.

But while Deir al-Zor city was not an SDF target, Abu Khawla did not rule out the possibility it may become one, saying people in the city wanted to be liberated from “the regime and Daesh at the same time”.

But “right now, we have a schedule that we’re following which is the liberation of the eastern riverbanks of the Euphrates”, he said.

He said Islamic State had “shown fierce resistance” when SDF fighters entered the outskirts of Deir al-Zor on the eastern bank. “The battles are continuous,” he said.

Abu Khawla, who is in his early 30s, said 10,000 fighters were taking part in the Deir al-Zor campaign, the bulk of them members of Arab tribes from eastern Syria. The campaign is supported by the Kurdish militia that dominate the SDF.

“All our soldiers’ training (is) in the Coalition training camps, they oversee our training and our armament,” he said.

Abu Khawla was a member of a Free Syrian Army rebel group in Deir al-Zor until Islamic State took over most of the province in 2014 at the height of its expansion in Syria and Iraq. He fled to Turkey before returning to Syria and joining the SDF.

“Now we are setting up a civil council parallel to the military council of Deir al-Zor, and this civilian council will run all areas freed from (Islamic State),” he said.

Additional reporting by John Davison in Beirut and Christian Lowe in Moscow, Writing by Tom Perry; editing by Ralph Boulton

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...sept-25-independence-referendum-idUSKCN1BQ2AV

SEPTEMBER 15, 2017 / 9:29 AM / UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO

Iraq's Kurdish parliament backs Sept 25 independence referendum

Raya Jalabi
5 MIN READ

ERBIL, Iraq (Reuters) - The parliament of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region approved a plan on Friday to hold a referendum on independence on Sept. 25, ignoring opposition from Baghdad and the wider region as well as Western concerns that the vote could spark fresh conflict.

Parliament reconvened in Erbil, the seat of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, where an overwhelming majority of the Kurdish lawmakers taking part backed the plan.

Hours after the decision, the White House publicly called for the first time on the KRG to cancel the referendum, warning that the vote was “distracting from efforts to defeat ISIS (Islamic State) and stabilize the liberated areas.”

“The United States does not support the Kudistan Regional Government’s intention to hold a referendum later this month,” the White House said in a statement. It urged the KRG to “enter into serious and sustained dialogue with Baghdad, which the United States has repeatedly indicated it is prepared to facilitate.”

The regional parliament’s decision came despite an intense diplomatic drive by the United States, which has provided critical military aid to the KRG’s fight against Islamic State, to persuade the Kurdish leadership to cancel the referendum.

The parliament session was the first held since the legislature was suspended nearly two years ago, though only 68 of 111 lawmakers attended due to a boycott by the main opposition movement Gorran.

“We’ve been waiting more than 100 years for this,” Omed Khoshnaw, a lawmaker from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDR) of KRG President Massoud Barzani, told Reuters.

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“There is no other way to guarantee that genocide will never be repeated,” Khoshnaw told the assembly earlier, referring to the persecution of the Kurds and their expulsion from areas such as oil-rich Kirkuk under late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

Some lawmakers wore Kurdish flags and rose to clap and sing the national anthem after the vote.

The Baghdad parliament’s decision earlier this week to oppose the referendum drew condemnation from deputies in Erbil.

“We refuse to accept the Iraqi parliament’s decision, which was unlawful,” Muna Qahwachi, a Turkman lawmaker, told Reuters.

Qahwachi said she had voted in favor of the referendum because she said Turkmen were protected in Kurdistan, unlike in the rest of Iraq.

PRESSURE REBUFFED

Earlier, Barzani shrugged off requests from the United States and other Western powers to put off the referendum. They fear increased tensions between Baghdad and Erbil will distract from the war on Islamic State militants who still occupy parts of Iraq and Syria.

“We still haven’t heard a proposal that can be an alternative to the Kurdistan referendum,” Barzani told a rally in the Kurdish region, referring to a proposal put forward by the United States and other Western envoys this week.

Iraq’s neighbors Iran and Turkey also oppose the plebiscite, fearing an independent Kurdish state could fuel separatism among their own Kurdish populations.

The opposition Gorran movement boycotted Friday’s parliamentary session, the first since a dispute between them and Barzani’s KDP caused the suspension of the assembly in October 2015.

“Those assembled in parliament today think this is a lawful session, but this is unlawful,” Birzu Majeed, the head of Gorran’s parliamentary block, told a news conference held while parliament was in session.

Lawmakers from a third party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), ensured the required quorum. The PUK is a historic rival of the KDP but supports the referendum plan.

Meanwhile, Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi‘ite paramilitary groups have threatened to dislodge the Kurdish forces from the Kirkuk region, which is due to take part in the referendum.

Kirkuk is home to sizeable Arab and Turkmen populations and lies outside the official boundaries of the Kurdistan region. It is claimed by both the Kurds and the central government in Baghad.

Kurdish peshmerga fighters seized Kirkuk and other disputed territories when the Iraqi army collapsed in the face of Islamic State in 2014, preventing its oilfields from falling into militant hands.

Reporting by Raya Jalabi; Additional reporting by Jonathan Landay in Washington; Editing by Gareth Jones and Jonathan Oatis

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rs-must-have-full-access-merkel-idUSKCN1BR00W

SEPTEMBER 15, 2017 / 6:06 PM / UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO

Putin's proposed U.N. Ukraine peacekeepers must have full access: Merkel

Reuters Staff
2 MIN READ

BERLIN(Reuters) - Any United Nations peacekeepers sent to eastern Ukraine must be granted access to the entirety of the region held by Moscow-backed separatists, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin floated the idea of deploying U.N. troops to eastern Ukraine in a Monday call with Merkel, suggesting that the U.N. mission could protect observers from the international OSCE monitoring mission.

With growing calls in Germany for the lifting of European Union sanctions against Russia over its activities in Ukraine, Moscow has been keen to float proposals that would help soften export bans that have hit Russians’ living standards.

“I find President Putin’s proposal to send U.N. troops to protect OSCE observers interesting,” she told the FUNKE newspaper group on Friday. “A few days ago I discussed with him that the U.N. troops must have access to everywhere where the OSCE is stationed, so the entire Donetsk/Luhansk region.”

The conflict between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists has claimed more than 10,000 lives since it erupted in 2014. Russia denies Western accusations it fomented the conflict and provided arms and fighters.

The observers are there to monitor implementation of a peace deal agreed in Minsk in 2015, which has been largely unsuccessful in settling the conflict despite German and French urgings.

Some German politicians have said sanctions should be lifted if the peace deal is implemented. Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democrats, a likely coalition partner for Merkel after Sept. 24 elections, even suggested Germany must accept Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.

Merkel said Putin’s proposals were “tender shoots” of progress, “which give no cause for softening sanctions” so far. She rejected Lindner’s proposal.

“The annexation is against international law and must not be accepted,” she said.

Reporting By Thomas Escritt; editing by Ralph Boulton

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...g-military-equilibrium-with-u-s-idUSKCN1BP35B

SEPTEMBER 14, 2017 / 3:13 PM / UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO

North Korea says seeking military 'equilibrium' with U.S.

Christine Kim, Michelle Nichols
7 MIN READ

SEOUL/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - North Korea said on Saturday it aims to reach an “equilibrium” of military force with the United States, which earlier signaled its patience for diplomacy is wearing thin after Pyongyang fired a missile over Japan for the second time in under a month.

“Our final goal is to establish the equilibrium of real force with the U.S. and make the U.S. rulers dare not talk about military option,” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was quoted as saying by the state news agency, KCNA.

Kim was shown beaming as he watched the missile fly from a moving launcher in photos released by the agency, surrounded by several officials.

“The combat efficiency and reliability of Hwasong-12 were thoroughly verified,” said Kim as quoted by KCNA. Kim added the North’s goal of completing its nuclear force had “nearly reached the terminal”.

North Korea has launched dozens of missiles under Kim’s leadership as it accelerates a weapons program designed to give it the ability to target the United States with a powerful, nuclear-tipped missile.

After the latest missile launch on Friday, White House National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said the United States was fast running out of patience with North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs.

“We’ve been kicking the can down the road, and we’re out of road,” McMaster told reporters, referring to Pyongyang’s repeated missile tests in defiance of international pressure.

“For those ... who have been commenting on a lack of a military option, there is a military option,” he said, adding that it would not be the Trump administration’s preferred choice.

Also on Friday, the U.N. Security Council condemned the “highly provocative” missile launch by North Korea.

It had already stepped up sanctions against North Korea in response to a nuclear bomb test on Sept. 3, imposing a ban on North Korea’s textile exports and capping its imports of crude oil.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, echoed McMaster’s strong rhetoric, even as she said Washington’s preferred resolution to the crisis is through diplomacy and sanctions.

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“What we are seeing is, they are continuing to be provocative, they are continuing to be reckless and at that point there’s not a whole lot the Security Council is going to be able to do from here, when you’ve cut 90 percent of the trade and 30 percent of the oil,” Haley said.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that he is “more confident than ever that our options in addressing this threat are both effective and overwhelming.” He said at Joint Base Andrews near Washington that North Korea “has once again shown its utter contempt for its neighbors and for the entire world community.”

MISSILE

North Korea’s latest test missile flew over Hokkaido in northern Japan on Friday and landed in the Pacific about 2,000 km (1,240 miles) to the east, the Japanese government said.

It traveled about 3,700 km (2,300 miles) in total, according to South Korea’s military, far enough to reach the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, which the North has threatened before.

“The range of this test was significant since North Korea demonstrated that it could reach Guam with this missile,” the Union of Concerned Scientists advocacy group said in a statement. However, the accuracy of the missile, still at an early stage of development, was low, it said.

On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson called on China, Pyongyang’s only ally, and Russia to apply more pressure on North Korea by “taking direct actions of their own.”

Beijing has pushed back, urging Washington to do more to rein in North Korea.

“Honestly, I think the United States should be doing .. much more than now, so that there’s real effective international cooperation on this issue,” China’s ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, said on Friday.

“They should refrain from issuing more threats. They should do more to find effective ways to resume dialogue and negotiation,” he said, while adding that China would never accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state.

North Korea staged its sixth and most powerful nuclear bomb test earlier this month and in July tested long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching at least parts of the U.S. mainland.

Last month, North Korea fired an intermediate range missile that also flew over Hokkaido into the ocean.

Warning announcements about the latest missile blared in parts of northern Japan, while many residents received alerts on their mobile phones or saw warnings on TV telling them to seek refuge.

The U.S. military said it had detected a single intermediate range ballistic missile but it did not pose a threat to North America or Guam.

Global equities investors largely shrugged off the latest missile test by North Korea as shares on Wall Street set new highs on Friday.

DIFFERENCES OVER DIRECT TALKS

Trump has promised not to allow North Korea to threaten the United States with a nuclear-tipped missile.

Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, said the United States needed to begin talks with North Korea, something that Washington has so far ruled out.

“We called on our U.S. partners and others to implement political and diplomatic solutions that are provided for in the resolution,” Nebenzia told reporters after the Security Council meeting. “Without implementing this, we also will consider it as a non-compliance with the resolution.”

Asked about the prospect for direct talks, a White House spokesman said, “As the president and his national security team have repeatedly said, now is not the time to talk to North Korea.”

South Korean President Moon Jae-in also said dialogue with the North was impossible at this point. He ordered officials to analyze and prepare for possible new North Korean threats, including electromagnetic pulse and biochemical attacks.

The United States and South Korea are technically still at war with North Korea because the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended with a truce and not a peace treaty. The North accuses the United States, which has 28,500 troops in South Korea, of planning to invade and regularly threatens to destroy it and its Asian allies.

(For graphic on North Korea's missile and nuclear tests, click tmsnrt.rs/2f3Y8rQ)

Reporting by Jeff Mason and Michelle Nichols; Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano, William Mallard, Tim Kelly and Chehui Peh in Tokyo, Jack Kim and Christine Kim in Seoul, Mohammad Zargham, Susan Heavey, Makini Brice and David Brunnstrom in Washington; Tom Miles in Geneva; Masha Tsvetkova and Polina Devitt in Moscow; Christian Shepherd in Beijing; Writing by Frances Kerry; Editing by Alistair Bell and Cynthia Osterman

 

[Housecarl]

So, provided things don't go stupid and loud, how long do you think it will be before we start hearing Polish and other Eastern European countries start to complain about the US GIs taking up and "exporting" back to CONUS their stock of young women?...

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Posted for fair use.....
http://abcnews.go.com/International...land-russia-begins-military/story?id=49875464

US Army tanks arrive in Poland as Russia begins military drills

By ELIZABETH MCLAUGHLIN
Sep 15, 2017, 12:44 PM ET

Video

As Russia began large military exercises on its western border, the U.S. Army was unloading tanks in Poland, the first time these military vehicles have arrived directly by sea.

The tanks, which arrived on Wednesday, are part of a routine troop swap. Soldiers and equipment from the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division from Fort Riley, Kansas, are replacing the 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division that has been in Europe for nine months.

Russia starts big war games along its border, alarming its neighbors
The replacement is part of what the military calls a continuing "heel-to-toe" rotation to maintain a U.S. armored brigade in Europe.

As for the tanks, they typically are shipped to Germany and then taken by rail or truck to their next location.

Maj. Gen. Steven Shapiro of the 21st Theater Sustainment Command said using Poland's port of Gdansk "helps test the Army's capacity of the port, and to make sure that the Army knows how to operate inside Poland."

The delivery includes 87 M1 Abrams tanks, 103 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, 18 Paladin self-propelled Howitzers, and other trucks and equipment, according to U.S. European Command (EUCOM).

"The continuous presence of an armored brigade bolsters the collective defense capability of NATO," EUCOM said. "EUCOM forces live, train, and fight alongside and partners from strategic positions that enable more timely and coordinated response if needed to defend Europe."

The U.S. military rotation occurred as Russia began week-long military drills, called Zapad 2017, which are joint exercises with its ally Belarus.

According to the Russians, the drills involve fewer than 12,000 troops, just below the threshold that would require them to invite international observers. But, according to the U.S. and NATO, the drills could involve as many as 100,000 troops, making it one of the largest Russian exercises since the Cold War.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
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http://abcnews.go.com/International...ing-incident-subway-station/story?id=49866327

Evacuations ordered after ‘significant arrest’ made in London terror attack

By MORGAN WINSOR
Sep 16, 2017, 5:22 PM ET

Video

Police evacuated a house in a London suburb and part of the Port of Dover after arresting an 18-year-old man Saturday morning in Dover, England, in connection with Friday's terror attack on a London Underground train, police said.

Kent Police arrested the man in the departure area of the Port of Dover, about 75 miles from London, at approximately 7:50 a.m. local time under section 41 of the U.K.'s Terrorism Act, according to London's Metropolitan Police Service. The section provides authorities the power to arrest a person suspected of terrorism-related offenses without a warrant.

"We have made a significant arrest in our investigation this morning," Metropolitan Police Deputy Assistant Commissioner Neil Basu said in a statement. "He was arrested on suspicion of being concerned in the commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism. He has now been transferred to custody at a police station in London."

Following the arrest, police partially evacuated the Port of Dover to search the premises as a precautionary measure.

"They recovered a number of items during this search," Basu said.

In the afternoon, police evacuated and launched a search of a house in Sunbury-on-Thames, a town in Surrey county some 15 miles southwest of central London, in connection with the investigation. Neighbors immediately surrounding the address were also evacuated as a precautionary measure.

“I want to reassure that community that our expert officers are quickly and thoroughly searching that address and working to ensure that it is safe. Once this is done a detailed search will take place," Basu said.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan hailed Saturday morning's arrest.

"This morning police have made a significant arrest as part of the investigation into the terrorist attack at Parsons Green station yesterday morning," Khan said in a statement. "The police investigation is ongoing and there will still be significant activity today and over the days ahead. I am sure I speak for London when I say we are incredibly grateful to the police and intelligence services for doing everything possible to keep Londoners safe."

"London will never be intimidated by terrorism. We will always defeat those who seek to harm us and destroy our way of life," the mayor added.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack through its Amag News Agency, in which an apparent bucket bomb exploded on a London Underground train at the during the morning rush hour Friday. The blast propelled a fireball through the passenger car, sending at least 30 people to area hospitals, officials said.

Authorities immediately launched a manhunt for suspects. Following Saturday's arrest, the Metropolitan Police Service announced it was still working to identify and locate any other potential suspects.

“At this stage we are keeping an open mind around whether more than one person is responsible for the attack and we are still pursuing numerous lines of inquiry and at a great pace," Basu said in a statement Saturday night. “We have identified 121 witnesses so far, and we have spoken to 100 of them already. Officers continue to trawl through many hours of closed circuit television footage and more than 180 videos and pictures that have been sent to them by the public."

After an emergency cabinet meeting, British Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday said the nation's threat level was raised to "critical," which is the highest level. The public should remain vigilant, she said.

A British government official said Friday's attack appears to be an isolated incident.

Eyewitnesses told ABC News that the blast happened as the train pulled into the Parsons Green station in Fulham, an affluent, mainly residential area of West London.

"I heard a loud bang and as I looked to my right, there was a flame, a fireball came through the carriage. ... As the doors opened, people then began leaving the train straight away," said Martin Adams, a security manager for The Walt Disney Company who was riding in the subway car at the time. "I saw some flames coming from what I thought was a blue bag."

Another person who was at the station said she saw a number of people with what appeared to be facial burns and singed hair after the explosion.

"I saw a couple people with burns. One lady had her hair badly singed by the fire," said Sally Faulding, who witnessed the panic on the subway platform. "I also saw people injured obviously from having been stampeded on the platform because we were all running. People were falling over."

As of Friday, the London Ambulance Service said it had transported 19 patients to area hospitals and 10 others took themselves, but none of the injuries were serious or life-threatening. On Saturday, the Metropolitan Police Service said a total of 30 people have received treatment at hospitals for injuries from the attack.

Adams said the situation was managed well by train operators and emergency crews, and that passengers remained relatively calm.

"There were no casualties at all on the train. Everybody appeared to get off," Adams told ABC News. "There was nobody laying on the platform floor. I assessed that there were no serious casualties at that time."

Police said the improvised explosive device on the train did not fully explode. Apparent images of the device show wires hanging out of a white bucket.

The area surrounding the Parsons Green tube station was evacuated Friday as emergency services continue to work at the scene and officers secure the remnants of the device, police said.

Basu, the senior national coordinator for counter-terrorism policing for the Metropolitan Police Service, declared the event as a "terrorist incident."

Transit officials announced early Saturday morning that the station had fully reopened and "there's good service operating on the line following yesterday’s incident."

Metropolitan Police ✔ @metpoliceuk
The Met’s Counter Terrorism Command are investigating after the incident at #ParsonsGreen tube station is declared a terrorist incident
2:18 AM - Sep 15, 2017
197 197 Replies 4,684 4,684 Retweets 2,942 2,942 likes

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has clashed with Khan in the past, shared his thoughts on Twitter just before 7 a.m. ET.

Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
Another attack in London by a loser terrorist.These are sick and demented people who were in the sights of Scotland Yard. Must be proactive!
3:42 AM - Sep 15, 2017
19,314 19,314 Replies 28,290 28,290 Retweets 103,220 103,220 likes

Trump referred to the suspects being "in the sights of Scotland Yard," though London officials have not publicly provided any confirmation of that.

Law enforcement agencies across the United States said they are closely monitoring Friday's incident. New York City Police Commissioner James O'Neill said Friday there were no known threats to the city's subway system, but reminded passengers to remain vigilant and aware of their surroundings.

However, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo released a statement Friday saying he was increasing security in public transportation areas across the Empire State.

"Out of an abundance of caution, I am directing state law enforcement to increase security at vital assets across New York, including airports, bridges, tunnels and mass transit systems," Cuomo said. "The safety and security of New Yorkers is our No. 1 priority, and we remain in close contact with local and federal officials. We remain vigilant, and we stand with the people of London."

ABC News' Rashid Haddou, Dimitrije Steijic and Kelly Stevenson contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2017-09-15/era-authoritarian-influence

SNAPSHOT September 15, 2017
China Russian Federation

An Era of Authoritarian Influence?
How Democracies Should Respond

By Thorsten Benner

For two decades after the end of the Cold War, the direction of international influence was clear: it radiated from liberal democracies outward, as the West sought to spread its model of governance around the world. With the help of Western-led democracy promotion, the thinking went, authoritarian states would be relegated to the dustbin of history.

That has changed. In recent years, authoritarian states have boldly sought to influence Western democracies. They have done so to strengthen their own regimes, to weaken Western states’ ability to challenge authoritarianism, and to push the world toward illiberalism.

Russia’s brazen attempt to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election thus fits a broader pattern, even though much of the analysis of that operation has presented it as an anomaly. Authoritarian influencing, as it might be called, involves actions not just by Russia but also by China and other states Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. It has affected many Western democracies. And it involves not just political meddling and propaganda programs but lower-profile work through political parties, nongovernmental organizations, and businesses.

Some of these tactics—such as the release of kompromat, or compromising material meant to undermine political targets—recall those used during the Cold War. Yet today’s authoritarian states have more tools than their predecessors, because contemporary elites and institutions are deeply enmeshed in Western economies and can use digital channels to spread ideas and meddle in their politics. Democracies’ openness to foreign money and ideas, the eagerness of their professional classes to profit from illiberal clients, and their political weaknesses have made authoritarians’ jobs easier.

States have always sought to influence one another, and democracies have been no exception: some may find it fair that they are now getting a taste of their own medicine. Still, advocates of open in the Balkans, where Russia has sought to destabilize Montenegro and other countries. .... (Rest behind a paywall HC)

 

[Housecarl]

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http://thediplomat.com/2017/09/armies-of-us-india-begin-joint-military-drills/

Armies of US, India Begin Joint Military Drills

The exercise is the thirteenth iteration of the U.S.-India Yudh Abhyas series of drills.

By Ankit Panda
September 17, 2017

The Indian and U.S. armies have started the thirteenth iteration of their Yudh Abhyas series of joint military exercises.

The exercise began on September 14 at Joint Base Lewis McChord in Washington state in the United States and will go on until September 27.

The United States and India trade off on hosting iterations of the exercises. The first-ever drill under the Yudh Abhyas moniker was carried out in 2004 at the platoon level and has since been expanded.

The exercise this year will focus primarily on the counter-terrorism operations and will also included strategic consultations between senior armed forces officers on both sides.

Last year’s Yudh Abhyas was held in India, in the Chaubatia foothills in India’s state of Uttarakhand near the Sino-Indian border.

As The Diplomat reported at the time, the “focus of the exercise will be counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations in mountainous terrain under a UN mandate.”

Though the U.S. Department of Defense or Pacific Command has not publicly confirmed the exact scope of this year’s exercise, it is likely intended to focus on similar operations under a United Nations mandate.

The Indian Defense Ministry released a statement noting that the exercise would allow troops from both sides to “hone their tactical skills in counter insurgency and counter terrorist operations under a joint brigade headquarter.”

“Both sides will jointly train, plan and execute a series of well-developed tactical drills for neutralization of likely threats that may be encountered in UN peace keeping operations,” it added.

“Experts from both sides will hold detailed discussions to share their experience and expertise on varied operational topics.”

Generally, both sides use the Yudh Abhyas exercises to plan and execute a range of tactical scenarios vital to UN peacekeeping scenarios. This year’s iteration will give particular attention to counterterrorism applications.

Last year’s iteration in India involved a number of Indian Army helicopters, which played a role in helping simulate troop drops into hostile territory.

 

[northern watch]

Reuters Top News‏Verified account @Reuters · 1h1 hour ago

Turkish tanks drill on Iraqi border week before Kurdish vote

 

[Housecarl]

Reuters Top News‏Verified account @Reuters · 1h1 hour ago

Turkish tanks drill on Iraqi border week before Kurdish vote

--

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...r-week-before-kurdish-vote-idUSKCN1BT0WA?il=0

SEPTEMBER 18, 2017 / 2:52 AM / UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO

Turkish tanks drill on Iraqi border week before Kurdish vote

Tuvan Gumrukcu, Maher Chmaytelli
5 MIN READ

ANKARA/BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Turkish tanks carried out drills at the Iraqi border on Monday, the army said, a week before a referendum across that frontier on Kurdish independence that Ankara has called a threat to its national security.

The exercises came as Turkey, the central government in Baghdad and their shared neighbor Iran all stepped up protests and warnings about the looming plebiscite in semi-autonomous Kurdish northern Iraq.

Iran, which like Turkey fears fuelling separatism in its own Kurdish population, warned of unspecified consequences if the vote went ahead.

Turkey’s Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said any threats from inside or outside its territory would face immediate retaliation. The military command released pictures of the tanks speeding along roads and kicking up dust during exercises.

Iraq’s Supreme Federal Court ordered Kurdistan region to suspend the vote, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s office said. Baghdad, its neighbors and Western powers fear the referendum could distract attention from the fight against Islamic State militants across the region.

But the Kurdish leadership showed no sign of bowing to pressure to call off the vote, including from the United Nations - which urged Erbil to resolve disputes with Baghdad over land and power sharing through dialogue.

TANKS, MISSILES

In Turkey, around 100 military vehicles, mostly tanks, took part in the drill near the Habur border gate, a crossing point into Iraq, the private news agency Dogan said. Vehicles carrying missiles and howitzers also participated.

Turkish military sources said the drill was due to run until Sept. 26, a day after the planned Kurdish referendum.

Turkey has not spelt out what response it might take if the referendum goes ahead. It has brought forward meetings of the cabinet and its national security council to Friday, three days ahead of the vote, to look again at the situation.

Separately, Turkey’s military said it carried out an air strike in northern Iraq on Monday and that “four terrorists were neutralized”. Turkish forces often launch cross-border attacks they say target members of the outlawed Kurdish PKK group, which has waged an insurgency in southern Turkey for three decades.

“Those who are chasing dreams in Syria and Iraq should know very well that any attempt that threatens our national security, from inside or outside our borders, will be immediately retaliated in kind,” Prime Minister Yildirim said in a speech in the southern Turkish town of Sanliurfa.

Kurdish forces have, with U.S. backing, been in the forefront of the battle against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The Kurdish involvement in Syria strains relations between Washington and Ankara.

The Iraqi Supreme Federal Court approved Prime Minister Abadi’s demand to consider “the breakaway of any region or province from Iraq as unconstitutional”, his office said in a statement.

The court is responsible for settling disputes between Iraq’s central government and regions including Kurdistan, but has no means to implement its rulings in the Kurdish region which has its own police and government, led by Massoud Barzani.

Iran issued a veiled warning to the Kurds that their security could be affected if Iraq’s unity was threatened.

“Any damage to this strategic principle would lead to the revision of and serious alteration in the existing cooperation between Iran and Iraq’s Kurdistan region,” said Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, according to state-run Press TV.

Turkey’s protests in the build-up to the vote had been relatively muted. It has built good relations with Barzani’s semi-autonomous Kurdish administration in northern Iraq, founded on strong economic links as well as Ankara and Erbil’s shared suspicions of other Kurdish groups.

The Kurdish Regional Government, led by Barzani’s KDP party,exports hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil per day to worldmarkets via Turkey and said on Monday that Russian oil major Rosneft (ROSN.MM) would invest in pipelines in the Kurdish region to export gas to Turkey and Europe.

Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu in Ankara, Maher Chmaytelli in Erbil; Editing by Dominic Evans and Andrew Heavens

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...t-nuclear-watchdog-meeting-idUSKCN1BT1GI?il=0

SEPTEMBER 18, 2017 / 5:46 AM / UPDATED 7 HOURS AGO

U.S. and Iran argue over inspections at nuclear watchdog meeting

Shadia Nasralla
3 MIN READ

VIENNA (Reuters) - The United States and Iran quarreled over how Tehran’s nuclear activities should be policed at a meeting of the U.N. nuclear watchdog on Monday, in a row sparked last month by Washington’s call for wider inspections.

Key U.S. allies are worried by the possibility of Washington pulling out of a 2015 landmark nuclear deal under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions against it being lifted.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley last month called for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect a wider range of sites in Iran, including military ones, to verify it is not breaching its nuclear deal with world powers. Her remarks were rejected by a furious Tehran.

“We will not accept a weakly enforced or inadequately monitored deal,” U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry told the IAEA General Conference, an annual meeting of the agency’s member states that began on Monday.

He did not say whether he thought the deal was currently weakly enforced.

“The United States ... strongly encourages the IAEA to exercise its full authorities to verify Iran’s adherence to each and every nuclear-related commitment under the JCPOA,” Perry added, referring to the deal by its official name -- the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Perry was speaking shortly after the General Conference formally approved the appointment of Yukiya Amano, a 70-year-old career diplomat from Japan, to a third term as IAEA director general.

U.S. President Donald Trump has called the accord “the worst deal ever negotiated” and has until mid-October to make a decision that could lead to Washington reimposing sanctions on Iran.

Iran’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, told the meeting in Vienna that Washington had made “a host of unjustifiable peculiar demands with regard to the verification of our strictly peaceful nuclear program”.

“We remain confident that the (IAEA) will resist such unacceptable demands and continue to execute the agency’s ... role with strict objectivity, fairness and impartiality,” he said. Salehi also criticized what he called “the American administration’s overtly hostile attitude”

The IAEA has the authority to request access to facilities in Iran, including military ones, if there are new and credible indications of banned nuclear activities there, but diplomats say Washington has yet to provide such indications.

Amano often describes his agency’s work as technical rather than political and has declined to comment on Haley’s remarks about inspections. In a speech on Monday, however, he defended the deal as an important step forward.

“The nuclear-related commitments undertaken by Iran under the JCPOA are being implemented,” Amano said. “Iran is now subject to the world’s most robust nuclear verification regime.”

Writing by Francois Murphy; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
https://www.defensenews.com/breakin...ws 9.18.17&utm_term=Editorial - Breaking News

US breaks ground for new permanent base in Israel

By: Barbara Opall-Rome  
15 hours ago
Comments 4

TEL AVIV, Israel — U.S. and Israeli officers broke ground in Israel on Monday for a permanent U.S. Army base that will house dozens of U.S. soldiers, operating under the American flag, and charged with the mission of defending against rocket and missile attack.

The American base, officers in Israel say, will be an independent facility co-located at the Israel Defense Forces Air Defense School in southern Israel, near the desert capital of Beersheba. Once completed, the base will house U.S. operational systems to identify and intercept a spectrum of aerial threats, along with barracks, recreational and other facilities required to support several dozen American air defenders.

“A few dozens of soldiers of our American allies will be stationed here permanently. They are part of an American task force that will be stationed here,” said Israeli Air Force Brig. Gen. Zvika Haimovich, the IDF‘s air defense commander.

According to Haimovich, the co-located, permanent U.S. presence will enhance Israel’s ability to detect and defend against the growing rocket and missile threat. “The purpose of their presence is not for training or for exercises, but rather as part of a joint Israeli and American effort to sustain and enhance our defensive capabilities.”

Maj. Gen. John Gronski, deputy commanding general of the Army National Guard in U.S. Army Europe, led the U.S. delegation participating in Sept. 18 ceremonies.

Referring to the site as Site 883 Life Support Area, Gronski said the planned base “signifies the strong bond” that exists between the United States and Israel.

“This life support area represents the first ever stationing of a U.S. Army unit on Israeli soil,” he said. “The U.S. and Israel have long planned together, exercised together, trained together. And now, with the opening of this site, these crucial interactions will occur every day. We’ll have Israeli airmen, US soldiers living and working side by side.”

While the new U.S. base marks the first to be co-located within an Israeli base and the first in which active interceptors are to be deployed, the U.S. military has operated an independent facility for nearly a decade in the same general area of Israel’s Negev desert. That facility — which is operated only by Americans without an Israeli presence — houses the U.S. AN/TPY-2, an X-Band radar that is integrated with Israeli search and track radars to augment early warning in the event of ballistic missile attack from Iran.

In his briefing to reporters, Haimovich said the IDF has been working with its U.S. counterparts for nearly two years to establish the new facility. He emphasized that the American presence “would not hamper the IDFs ability to act independently against any threat to the security of the State of Israel.”

He also noted that in recent weeks, the IDFs Air Defense Command stood up a new Iron Dome battalion to enable the Jewish state to more equitably deploy active defenses along its northern as well as southern borders, where Israel faces growing threats from Lebanon and Gaza, respectively.

One of Israel’s operational Iron Dome systems is now in the U.S., where it is competing with U.S.-proposed systems for an interim — and possibly longer-term — solution to the medium- and short-range air defense requirement.

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.dw.com/en/zapad-2017-drill-what-does-russia-want/a-40428943

Zapad 2017 drill – what does Russia want?

The large "Zapad-2017" war games pit the troops of Russia and Belarus against terrorist infiltrators from three "hypothetical" Eastern European countries. DW gives you an overview of the drill.

Date 14.09.2017
Author Galina Petrowskaja, Darko Janjevic

Moscow and Minsk on Thursday launched the week-long "Zapad-2017" drill. In it, the two countries will deploy their troops, designated as "the Northern ones" to stand up to the aggression from "the Western ones" – armed attackers from the made-up countries of Vesbaria, Lubenia, and Veishnoria.

According to the scenario released by Russian and Belarusian defense officials, Vesbaria and Lubenia are located in the Baltic region and control the corridor which links the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with Belarus. In the real world, the corridor roughly corresponds to the border between Lithuania and Poland, both of them NATO members.

Read more: Zapad war games 'peaceful and defensive' Russia assures West
The hypothetical state of Veishnoria, however, is located in the Grodno area of Belarus, near the country's western border.

Independent experts see this as a sign that Minsk and Moscow are preparing scenarios for threats originating in NATO countries as well as from within Belarus. The Grodno area seems to have a special significance as the home for a large population of Poles living in the former Soviet state. However, military officials insist that the scenario was developed "against a hypothetical opponent, unrelated to the concrete region."

http://www.dw.com/image/40427712_401.png

What is the goal of the drill?

"Belarus and the Kaliningrad region have been infiltrated by extremist groups with the intention of committing terrorist attacks. The illegal militias are backed from abroad, providing them with armaments and naval and air capabilities. In order to neutralize the opponents, land forces will be deployed to cut off their access to sea and block air corridors in the region, with the support of the air force, air defense forces, and the navy," the official plan says.

Read more: Russia readies troops for Zapad war games with Belarus

The goal of the Zapad-2017 maneuvers is to coordinate actions between regional military commands "in the interest of ensuring military safety," Moscow and Minsk said. "The Republic of Belarus strives to prevent armed conflicts, and the Russian federation is providing it with political backing, financial aid, as well as technical and military support," according to the Belarusian Defense Ministry.

The drill is set to proceed in two stages. Initially, the military will boost their air force and air defense capabilities to protect key military and state objects, and prepare to "isolate regions of activity by the illegal armed groups and their subversive-reconnaissance squads." The second stage will be "to work out the issues of managing troops while repelling an aggression" against Russia and Belarus.

How many troops are taking part?

According to offical figures, some 12,700 servicemen are involved in the drills. "Zapad-2017" also involves 70 planes and helicopters, 280 tanks, 200 artillery weapons, ten ships, and various other pieces of military equipment. The drills include agents of the Russian intelligence service FSB, as well as people working for the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

However, NATO allies have repeatedly disputed these numbers, with German Defense Minister Ursula Von der Leyen claiming the real number is likely to be upwards of 100,000 troops. International accords mandate that countries provide a larger degree of transparency when holding drills with over 13,000 troops.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it was "bewildered" by Von der Leyen's assertion, and repeated its claims that drill would stay below the 13,000 threshold. Previously, the Kremlin has asked foreign defense officials and military-diplomatic corps to visit the final stage of the joint exercise at one of the sites in Russia. Belarus also stated that it had sent out invitations to UN, OSCE, NATO, the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States, and military attaches accredited in Belarus.

Read more: Ursula von der Leyen says Russia showing off 'power'

Where is the drill being staged?

The bases involve seven locations in Belarus, one location in the heavily militarized Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and two in western Russia. In order to reduce tensions with neighboring countries, the authors of the drill made an effort to pick the areas "at a significant distance from the border."

Read more: What are Russia's Zapad war games?

NATO's eastern members are concerned over the deployment of Russian troops near their territory, as Moscow has been known to stage large drills ahead of conflict in Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Some have even speculated that Russia might use the troops to occupy Belarus, its closest European ally. Most observers, however, consider this move to be extremely unlikely.

The drill has "strictly defensive character, its execution will not present any threat for the European community as a whole, nor for the neighboring countries," the Russian defense ministry said. The Belarusian side has ensured that after the drills are over "by September 30 the military personnel, weapons, military equipment and specialized devices of Republic of Belarus will be returned to its permanent deployment locations, and the elements of the Russian military will leave Belarusian territory."


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Zapad drills: Russia showing off 'power' says Germany's Ursula von der Leyen
Around 100,000 Russian soldiers will take part in the upcoming Zapad 2017 war games, despite Moscow's claims that they will only have 12,700 participants, said Germany's Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen. (07.09.2017)

Russia readies troops for Zapad war games with Belarus
Russia and Belarus are set to stage the Zapad 2017 war games, and the operation's size is causing concern among Western observers. Moscow's heavy troop presence has some worrying whether Minsk's sovereignty is at risk. (17.08.2017)

NATO voices skepticism over size of Russia's Zapad military exercise
NATO has welcomed recent dialogue with Russia, but the alliance has serious doubts Moscow is revealing the true extent of its military exercises. Last time this training took place was just before the invasion of Crimea. (13.07.2017)

What are Russia's Zapad war games?
Russia's military is preparing to hold its biggest war games in several years, dubbed Zapad-2017. NATO's eastern members are alarmed by these plans, and claim similar drills preceded clashes in Georgia and Crimea. (14.07.2017)

Zapad games 'peaceful' and 'defensive,' Russia assures West
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Cold War armaments still serve as staples of armies across the world, with Eastern bloc designs outlasting the system they were created to protect. DW looks at some of the best-known Soviet-made weapons. (09.09.2017)

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/201...&utm_campaign=ISIS+in+Europe&utm_medium=email

Sunday, September 17, 2017

ISIS's Expanding Campaign in Europe

By Jennifer Cafarella with Jason Zhou

Key Takeaway: ISIS’s attack campaign in Europe is expanding despite ISIS’s losses of terrain and senior leadership in the Middle East and North Africa. ISIS continues to plan, resource, and execute attacks from its remaining safe havens in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. ISIS has successfully expanded its coordinated attack campaign in Europe to target the UK and Spain. Rising levels of ISIS-inspired attacks in Sweden and Finland may signal growing online ISIS activity targeting vulnerable populations in those states and receptivity among those populations to the ISIS message. Coordinated attack attempts could follow. ISIS is sustaining its attack efforts in its initial target states of France and Germany, meanwhile. ISIS’s activity in Belgium, also an initial target state, is much lower, but the lack of ISIS attacks in Belgium does not signal incapacity. ISIS may be using its networks in Belgium to support attack cells elsewhere in Europe. ISIS also appears increasingly successful at inspiring low-level attacks in Europe despite its territorial losses, indicating its messaging is still resonant. ISIS’s campaign in Europe will continue and may even increase despite its losses in Iraq and Syria.

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MpCXfMOQ...+ISIS+Attack+Campaign+in+Europe_Bar+Graph.png

Methodology

ISW has refined its methodology for assessing ISIS’s campaign in Europe to leverage new published information such as details from the trials of arrested ISIS members. ISW has curated its database of terrorist attacks in Europe, ranging from clear instances of coordinated ISIS attacks to low-level attacks that may have little to no direct ISIS involvement. This broad collection aperture enables ISW to analyze the rising levels of Salafi-jihadi violence in Europe that ISIS uses to justify and advertise its methodology and ideology. This collection aperture also enables ISW to assess how much of the trend of Salafi jihadi violence in Europe ISIS is actually commanding and controlling.

ISW sorts each attack into one of three categories: coordinated ISIS attacks, inspired ISIS attacks, and unknown attacks. ISW also collects all instances of attempted attacks, which also range from low-level would-be attackers with unknown links to ISIS to complex, coordinated ISIS attack plots. ISW maps both successful attacks and the arrests of thwarted attack cell members to gain insight into where and how ISIS is attempting to penetrate European security and to evaluate the success of ISIS’s campaign. The Appendix discusses ISW’s methodology for assessing attempted attacks in more detail. The four categories of attacks – both attempted and successful – that ISW has collected are:

• Coordinated ISIS attacks are deliberate, planned attacks that ISIS has designed, resourced, and supported from Syria, Iraq, or Libya. Senior ISIS leaders are often involved in planning these attacks and training recruits. Coordinated ISIS attacks vary in scale and complexity from relatively low-level attacks such as vehicle rammings to sophisticated operations such as the 2015 Paris attacks.[1] ISW has subcategorized each coordinated ISIS attack based on the type of attacker in order to gain insight into how ISIS is executing its campaign. The attackers in ISIS coordinated attacks to date have been returning ISIS foreign fighters, ISIS refugee operatives, or local ISIS recruits who conducted or attempted to conduct an attack while in contact with an ISIS “cyberplanner.” ISIS cyberplanners are foreign fighters who conduct online recruitment for ISIS, but also perform remote logistical and other support functions by leveraging criminal and other networks in Europe to enable ISIS recruits to access resources necessary for an attack. US-led coalition airstrikes against the ISIS external attack network in Syria and Iraq have focused on eliminating these nodes.
  
  [*]Inspired ISIS attacks are attacks consistent with ISIS’s methodology and calls for attacks in Europe. ISW assesses an attack to be inspired if the attacker(s) have demonstrated pro-ISIS sympathies such as possessing ISIS propaganda or pledging allegiance to ISIS online. Some of the attacks ISIS has inspired in Europe are consistent with the US military’s doctrinal definition for a “complex attack.”[2] Many of these attacks may actually be coordinated by ISIS cyberplanners, but ISW assesses them to be inspired until or unless the involvement of a cyberplanner has been adequately documented in publically available information.
  
  [*]Unknown attacks fit ISIS’s methodology and calls for “lone jihad” but have no clear links to ISIS or in some cases even terrorism in publically available reporting. The attackers may have been inspired by ISIS or other jihadist groups such as al Qaeda, which has also sent operatives to Europe, but ISW cannot assess such links with confidence. ISW categorizes these attacks as “unknown” due to a lack of sufficient evidence of ISIS or al Qaeda sympathies. ISW has included this data because these attacks support ISIS’s claim of momentum and narrative of a growing global war between Sunni Muslim populations and the majority non-Muslim world.
  

ISW updates its assessment of each attack when new information emerges. The assessment presented below is based on publicly available information as of September 14, 2017.

The Coordinated ISIS Attack Campaign in Europe

ISIS successfully expanded the scope of its coordinated attack campaign in Europe to the United Kingdom and Spain in 2017.

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q7uYy0jo...600/ISIS+in+Europe_Coordinated+Attacks-01.png

The initial waves of ISIS’s coordinated attacks in Europe primarily targeted France, Belgium, and Germany in 2014-2016. Returnee foreign fighters conducted most of these attacks. ISW assesses that ISIS returnee foreign fighters also tried and failed to conduct attacks in at least the UK, Spain, Morocco, Italy, Albania, and Kosovo in that timeframe.

The EU Counterterrorism Chief stated on September 12, 2017 that ISIS still has as many as 2,500 European foreign fighters in its ranks in Iraq and Syria and that at least 1,500 have returned to Europe to date. ISIS’s European foreign fighter population in Iraq and Syria will continue to provide the organization with links to jihadist and criminal networks in Europe even if the foreign fighters do not return to Europe. The foreign fighters that have already returned to Europe provide ISIS with latent capability to conduct attacks in addition to logistical and other support operations. ISIS is likely leveraging its foreign fighter cadres to attack new states rather than execute coordinated attacks in states where levels of ISIS-inspired attacks are rising.

ISIS’s success demonstrates that it continues to generate attack capability faster than security services can disrupt new ISIS cells. In the UK, an ISIS returnee foreign fighter detonated a suicide vest (SVEST) at a concert venue in Manchester on May 22, 2017 in the first attack in the UK to date that fits ISW’s definition of a coordinated attack. The attacker met with members of an ISIS external operations cell in Libya prior to the attack, indicating that ISIS is leveraging command and control outside of Syria and Iraq to support its European operations. In Spain, members of an ISIS cell conducted two separate car-ramming attacks in Barcelona and Cambrilis as a contingency operation after an explosion at the cell’s TATP factory killed its leader and other members of the cell. TATP is an explosive that ISIS operatives in Europe commonly use. The cell’s original plan was to conduct a coordinated attack using TATP against the Sagrada Familia Church, a popular tourist destination in Barcelona. The extent of ISIS’s direct support to this attack cell is unclear, due in part to the death of the cell’s leader and numerous other cell members in the explosion of the TATP factory. Reports that the cell’s leader traveled to Belgium in late 2016 could indicate that ISIS has a command-and-control node in Belgium that supported the attack.

More coordinated ISIS attack plots in Europe are likely underway. Unconfirmed reports indicate that ISIS’s external operations node in Libya has also dispatched foreign fighters to Belgium and France in addition to the UK. It is possible that a failed coordinated attack in Paris in 2017 was linked to the Libyan node. ISW cannot confirm any coordinated attack cells in Belgium in 2017, but French and Belgian police arrested one cross-border cell with likely links to ISIS in July 2017. This cell may have been planning attacks. The returnee foreign fighters may also be using Belgium as a base for command and control and logistical operations instead of a base for attacks, as the travel of the Spanish cell’s leader to Belgium suggests. They may have joined a pre-existing ISIS network in Brussels comprised of the initial wave of returnee foreign fighters that reached Belgium before ISIS’s major successful attacks in Paris and Brussels in November 2015 and March 2016, respectively.

Sustained ISIS attempts to conduct coordinated attacks in France and Germany in 2017 indicate that ISIS continues to prioritize those countries. ISIS’s Iraq-based French cyberplanner, Rachid Kassim, planned a coordinated attack in Paris, France involving TATP before a coalition airstrike killed him near Mosul, Iraq in February 2017. French police successfully disrupted the attack and arrested 2 cell members on September 6th, at least one of whom had been in contact with Kassim. German police meanwhile disrupted what could have been a coordinated ISIS attack attempt in Essen by a German foreign fighter in March 2017 who was reportedly recruiting people in the area to conduct an attack.

Future ISIS success are also likely in the states that thwarted coordinated ISIS plots from 2014- 2016, which include at least Italy, Albania, and Kosovo. ISIS’s links to criminal networks in Italy may reduce the group's incentive to attack there in the near term, since law enforcement responses to such attacks could disrupt important support nodes. ISIS could also risk alienating business partners such as elements of the Italian Mafia if it attacks Italy. The anti-ISIS coalition has eliminated numerous ISIS external operators in Syria tasked with managing ISIS’s attack campaign in Albania and Kosovo in airstrikes in June 2017, meanwhile. These strikes may have disrupted ISIS’s ability to generate attack cells in the Balkans. ISIS may be attempting to leverage Balkan foreign fighters to conduct attacks elsewhere in Europe, however. Italian police arrested a Kosovar cell including at least one returnee ISIS foreign fighter in March 2017 that was planning an explosive attack against the Rialto Bridge. Available reporting does not confirm that ISIS provided direct support to this cell, which could have been merely inspired by ISIS. ISW will update this assessment as new details become available.

Coordinated ISIS attacks using refugees

ISIS’s coordinated attack campaign in Germany relies less on a foreign fighter cadre than elsewhere in Europe. ISIS is also using recruited and possibly trained refugees to conduct coordinated attacks in Germany. ISIS has conducted two successful coordinated attacks in Germany using one returnee foreign fighter and one refugee operative to date. The refugee was a Syrian who had reportedly fought with ISIS before leaving for Europe in 2013. He detonated an SVEST outside a concert in Ansbach on July 24, 2016. German police later discovered chemicals and other bomb-making materials in his room at a refugee center in Germany. German authorities have reportedly thwarted six coordinated ISIS attack attempts, involving three refugees, two returnees, and one local who was likely in contact with an ISIS cyberplanner. Germany authorities have reportedly thwarted an additional nine attacks that could include attempted ISIS coordinated attacks, but for which adequate information does not yet exist.

Refugees have conducted attacks in other countries, but ISW cannot assess any coordinated ISIS involvement with confidence at the time of writing. ISW’s assessment places ISIS-inspired attacks conducted by refugees into the same category as all other instances of ISIS-inspired attacks. Future ISW products will examine the trend of ISIS-inspired attacks in Europe in more detail, to include when and where refugees have conducted such operations.

Attacks consistent with ISIS’s calls for “lone Jihad”

ISIS seeks to create momentum behind a campaign of attacks in Europe that will require less direct input from ISIS over time. ISW assessed in November 2015 that ISIS’s goal in Europe was to provoke overreactions by European governments that would alienate Muslim communities and radicalize them over time. ISIS designed a campaign to inject violence into European societies in order to jumpstart a campaign of low-level attacks against non-Muslim populations in Europe that would further polarize European communities.

The scope and volume of low-level attacks that fit ISIS’s calls for “lone jihad” in Europe nearly quadrupled in Europe from January 2014 to September 2017. This trend could signal a growing resonance of ISIS’s messaging to vulnerable populations despite ISIS’s territorial losses in Iraq and Syria. If so, this trend would demonstrate ISIS success generating a campaign of violence in Europe that requires progressively less direct input from ISIS to sustain.

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Fau2MC1t...2-Y_FXgCLcBGAs/s1600/Lone+Jihad+Europe-01.png

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ebiWfM1f...R9pQCLcBGAs/s1600/Lone+Jihad+Europe+Graph.png

It is still possible that ISIS cyberplanners or returnee foreign fighters coordinated many of these attacks, however. Available information does not enable ISW to assess these attacks to be coordinated at the time of writing. Attacks consistent with the ISIS calls for “lone wolf” jihad expanded to Spain,[ii] Italy,[iii] Switzerland,[iv] and Finland[v] in 2017. The attacks in Finland and rising levels of similar attacks in Sweden are the most likely to have been coordinated by ISIS, since they are in a new theater. Finland raised its threat level in early 2017, which could signal intelligence indicating ISIS was actively attempting to coordinate attacks. The chief of Sweden’s security service (SAPO) warned in June 2017 that extremist activity was rising in multiple Swedish cities. Norway also raised its threat level in early 2017, possibly indicating new ISIS attack efforts. It is also possible that some of these attacks have been inspired or enabled by al Qaeda rather than ISIS, but the available data does not confirm al Qaeda links.

Conclusion

The success of anti-ISIS operations in Europe remains limited. ISIS continues to generate and inspire attacks on a scope and scale larger than European security services can handle. New countermeasures such as “vehicle mitigation barriers” can reduce the lethality of ISIS tactics but are unlikely to disrupt ISIS’s ability to inspire and recruit attackers. Anti-ISIS operations in Syria and Iraq have not severed the link between ISIS’s senior leadership and its operatives abroad, moreover. Coalition airstrikes in Iraq and Syria have eliminated many ISIS external operatives, but have not sufficiently degraded ISIS’s capability. ISIS also continues to use safe haven in Libya as a base from which to support attacks in Europe even after its loss of Sirte, demonstrating how removing ISIS from cities is insufficient to prevent ISIS from conducting attacks. The anti-ISIS coalition is unlikely to dismantle the global ISIS attack network without broadening the scope of anti-ISIS operations beyond a narrow terrain focus. ISIS can use safe-havens in rural and even desert areas to plan, coordinate, and support the conduct of attacks in the West.

It must also refocus on addressing the grievances and fears of vulnerable Sunni populations that make them vulnerable to ISIS messaging. The widespread perception that European states and the U.S. are aligned with Iran and the Assad regime against Sunni populations in Syria and Iraq, as well as the rise of anti-Muslim sentiments and perceived anti-Muslim policies in Europe and the U.S. will continue to fuel toleration of and limited but growing support for ISIS (and al Qaeda) attack operations in the West. ISIS is waging a social and informational campaign to gain support among Western populations—Western states will not be able to kill and arrest their way out of this problem.

Appendix: ISW methodology for analyzing attempted attacks

The first graphic in this report depicts the number of attacks and attempted attacks per month in Europe from January 2014 to September 14, 2017. The chart begins in January because it is the month when the first known ISIS attack operative entered Europe after ISIS’s separation from al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Jabhat al Nusra in mid-2013. French police arrested that operative, named Abdelkader Tliba, thereby preventing what would have been the first coordinated ISIS attack in Europe. ISW’s data set includes every such known attempted attack in Europe since January 2014.

ISW’s data set most likely under-represents the number of thwarted ISIS attack cells in Europe, which are the most difficult to discern from openly available reporting. The “count” of attempted attacks per month in Europe is the number of thwarted attack cells with proven links to ISIS or that ISW assesses are possibly linked to ISIS based on openly available reporting. The “count” is not estimate of the number of attacks that any given cell would have conducted if not arrested. The actual number of attacks that ISIS has attempted to conduct in Europe may be higher than the graphic in this report conveys, therefore.

The “count” also does not measure the complexity of the thwarted attack cell’s structure or geographic disposition. Some of the attack cells included in this data set are individual attackers who were planning to conduct a single operation based on instructions from an ISIS cyberplanner. Others are larger networks of operatives spread between numerous safe houses in numerous countries. Many fall somewhere in between, or reflect instances where European security services arrested a cell before it had finalized an attack plan.

Comparing attempted vs successful attacks in Europe

The “count” for the successful attacks in Europe is the sum of the locations at which successful attacks occurred. For example, the ISIS attack in Paris November 2015 has a “count” of six. ISW has coded the attack data based on each attack location because each separate attack location reflects a separate successful attack operation that ISIS chose to coordinate and execute simultaneously. This approach is in line with the methodologies used by U.S. military forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, which tally each individual kinetic event even when multiple attacks take place in a coordinated fashion simultaneously, but in different locations.

The comparison of attempted attacks versus attacks provides a proxy for assessing the success of ISIS’s campaign in Europe. The ratio favors ISIS, as ISIS appears to be able to generate attacks faster than European security services can disrupt them.

ISW’s data set does not include instances of partial disruption of an ISIS attack cell. An example of a partial disruption would be the arrest of one of five suicide bombers that reduced the “count” of the successful attack to the observed four attacks. This data set is not an exhaustive accounting of all of the successes of European security services against ISIS, therefore.

ISW has sorted attempted attacks into the same four categories as successful attacks based on available evidence as of September 14, 2017: attempted coordinated ISIS attacks, attempted ISIS-inspired attacks, and unknown attempted attacks for which few details are publically available. ISW routinely updates and re-evaluates the assessment of each attempted attack as new details become available, such as new information about a given would-be attacker’s links to ISIS cyberplanners. ISW will publish updates and refined assessments as appropriate.

ISW’s Data Set vs. Official European Reporting

ISW’s data set includes more events and counts differently than official European reports. For example, ISW’s data for 2016 includes eleven more attacks in EU countries than the EU’s 2017 counterterrorism report and dozens more attempted attacks. The primary reason for these differences is that ISW counts events that the EU member states have not definitively ruled as terrorism. European states must discuss terror attacks on the basis of definitive evidence and the proper application of European laws. ISW’s approach enhances analysis of the ISIS campaign in Europe by widening the aperture to include the entire set of events that likely fit within the ISIS campaign even if insufficient evidence exists at present confidently to designate each event as a terrorist attack. ISW also seeks to inform analysis of the perceived trend of attacks in Europe, which ISIS and other jihadist groups use to recruit even if based in part of false attribution of some acts of violence, as this report explains.

ISW’s methodology to consider each attack location a separate attack also contributes to differences between ISW and European reporting. The EU report considers the March 2016 ISIS attack in Brussels to be a single attack, for example; ISW counts it as three separate, coordinated attacks.


----------------------------------------
The authors would like to thank Ryan Rockwell for his tremendous research support to this product.

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[1] ISW derived this type of attack from the US military’s doctrinal definition of a coordinated attacks which is: “an attack that exhibits deliberate planning conducted by multiple hostile elements, against one or more targets from multiple locations. A coordinated attack may involve any number of weapon systems. [The] key difference between complex and coordinated is that a coordinated attack requires the indication of insurgent long term planning.”
[2] “An attack conducted by multiple hostile elements which employ at least two distinct classes of weapon systems (i.e. indirect fire and direct fire, IED and surface to air fire) against one or more targets.”



For example, the US killed ISIS’s Albanian foreign fighter and attack planner Lavdrim Muhaxeri in an airstrike on June 7, 2017 near Mayadin, Syria.
[ii] An attack consistent with ISIS’s calls for “lone jihad” targeted a Spanish-Moroccan border post on July 25, 2017 before the ISIS cell in Barcelona conducted its attacks.
[iii] The first attack consistent with ISIS’s calls for “lone jihad” to target Italy occurred on May 18, 2017. ISW assesses the attacker was inspired by ISIS.
[iv] The first attack consistent with ISIS’s calls for “lone jihad” to target Switzerland occurred on July 24, 2017.
[v] The first attack consistent with ISIS’s calls for “lone jihad” to target Finland occurred on August 18, 2017. ISW assesses the attacker was inspired by ISIS.

Posted by Institute for the Study of War at 10:20 PM

Labels: Al Qaeda, Europe, ISIL, ISIS, Islamic State

 

[northern watch]

Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab · 1h1 hour ago

Intel Crab Retweeted Michael Horowitz

#IDF has increased the alert level on the northern front after shooting down an Iranian-made drone near #Syria.

 

[northern watch]

From northern watch

Intel Crabþ @IntelCrab · 1h1 hour ago

Intel Crab Retweeted Michael Horowitz

*IDF has increased the alert level on the northern front after shooting down an Iranian-made drone near #Syria


Israel says it downed Hezbollah drone headed toward Golan

By Josef Federman, Associated Press
JERUSALEM September 19, 2017, 8:12 AM ET

The Israeli military said it shot down an Iranian-made spy drone operated by the Hezbollah militant group as it approached the Golan Heights on Tuesday, and vowed to take further tough action against any attempts by its archenemies to violate the country's sovereignty.

The aerial showdown took place as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was preparing to address the U.N. General Assembly, where his speech is expected to focus on concerns of Iran's rising influence across the region, particularly in neighboring Syria.

Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, an Israeli military spokesman, said the drone took off from a Damascus military airport and was on a surveillance mission near Israel's border. He said Israel decided to shoot it down after it entered the demilitarized zone between Syria and the Israeli-controlled side of the Golan.

Fighter jets were scrambled but did not attack the aircraft, and instead a single Patriot missile shot it down, he said.

"Our message is that the IDF will not allow any violation of Israeli sovereignty, and we will not allow Iranian forces, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad or Shiite militias of any kind to approach the Israeli borders," Conricus said. He said if any other attempts to violate Israel's sovereignty are made, "we will respond swiftly." IDF is the acronym for the Israeli Defense Forces.

Conricus said Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Lebanese group that has sent forces to back Syrian President Bashar Assad in the Syrian civil war, routinely uses drones on surveillance missions. But it is rare for the pilotless aircraft to enter Israeli airspace. Russian and Iranian forces are fighting in Syria in support of Assad.

Conricus also stressed that said Israel did not seek any further escalation.

Israeli military and political leaders are worried that as the Syrian civil war appears to be winding down, Iranian and Hezbollah forces will maintain a permanent presence in the neighboring country.

Netanyahu was to address the U.N. General Assembly later on Tuesday, with Iran at the top of his agenda.

The Israeli leader is a vocal critic of the international nuclear deal with Iran. He also is concerned about Tehran's support for anti-Israel groups like Hezbollah, and its development of long-range missiles capable of striking his country. He has repeatedly warned that Israel will not accept a military presence by Iran or any of its Shiite allies in the Syrian border area near Israel.

Israel has largely stayed out of the fighting in Syria. But it has carried out dozens of airstrikes on alleged arms shipments bound for Hezbollah. It fears the group will gain sophisticated weapons and smuggle them from Syria into Lebanon.

Israel and Hezbollah are bitter enemies and fought a monthlong war in 2006 that ended in a stalemate, and Israeli officials fear another war could break out in the future.


http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israel-intercepts-drone-headed-golan-heights-49946114

 

[Housecarl]

TRUMP KICKING ASS in the UN speech!
Started by wait-n-see‎, Today 07:22 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?524636-TRUMP-KICKING-ASS-in-the-UN-speech!/page2

--------

Hummm.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.realcleardefense.com/ar...must_deploy_more_and_better_armor_112326.html

To Defend Europe, NATO Must Deploy More and Better Armored Forces

By Daniel Gouré
September 19, 2017

Just a few years ago, Western military leaders were all but certain that the era of the tank was over. As a result, they unwisely did away with the world’s foremost armored fighting force. Germany, the nation that more than any other perfected the role of tanks and armored formations in warfare, reduced its fleet of Leopard 2 tanks from some 2,100 to 225. The British Army, which ended the Cold War with 800 advanced tanks, currently deploys just 156 in a single regiment. France has 406 tanks but only 240 in front-line units. In comparison, the Ukrainian separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk are reported to be operating more than 700 tanks, a larger fleet than that of Britain, Germany and France combined.

Moreover, reductions in combat support capabilities, logistics and manpower means that this “corporal’s guard” of NATO armored fighting units are actually less capable and deployable than the raw numbers would indicate. A recent RAND study concluded that it would take a month or more for the U.K., Germany and France to generate a combat-ready armored brigade.

The U.S. Army is in a somewhat better position than its NATO allies when it comes to the size of its tank park of approximately 6,000 Abrams main battle tanks. It also has 14 fully formed Armored Brigade Combat Teams (ABCT) each of which consists of Abrams, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and Paladin Self-Propelled Howitzer artillery plus supporting vehicles. However, the Army believes that a heavier brigade is better, so it is converting one of its infantry brigades into an ABCT.

But almost all Army ABCTs are based in the continental United States, thousands of miles away from Europe. The only two formations based in Europe are relatively light units, the 2nd Cavalry Regiment, equipped with Stryker Infantry Fighting Vehicles, and the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team. The U.S. Army is working on ways to maximize its presence in Europe without recreating massive fixed infrastructure.

The Russian Army, which inherited most of the Soviet Union’s massive arsenal of over 50,000 tanks, has slimmed itself down to around 2,800 modern main battle tanks in active units plus another 12,000 in reserve. Most of these are positioned in western Russia facing NATO. Moreover, the Russian Army has reaffirmed its commitment to the tank and to heavy armored fighting forces with the re-creation of the multi-division 1st Guards Tank Army (1st GTA), an offensive unit once stationed in East Germany opposite U.S. forces on the Fulda Gap. The 1st GTA consists of some 500 to 600 tanks, 600 to 800 infantry fighting vehicles and 300 to 400 artillery pieces.

The Russian Army has also stood up three additional combined arms divisions in the West drawing troops and weapons from units stationed farther east. One long-time observer of Russian military development concludes that these force developments reflect a military doctrine that emphasizes “preemption, escalation dominance, surprise (suddenness and deception), shock, strike power, and speed of action [which] are classic features of Russian military operations... The entirety of the armed forces and its supporting military system are poised for quick, early action in a crisis, conflict, or war to preempt their opponent’s ability to surprise them.”

In order to deter Russia from attempting to use its large and well-equipped ground forces either to intimidate its neighbors to the West or to conduct a lightning war against the Baltics, Poland, Ukraine or Romania, NATO must have a strong conventional capability deployed in Eastern Europe. The decision to send American ABCTs to Europe on heel-to-toe rotations is a good beginning; for the first time, two ABCTs are being simultaneously rotated into Poland. One advantage of rotational deployments instead of permanent forward stationing is the ability to employ these units continuously in presence and training missions. Another is the avoidance of the inevitable installation and transportation costs involved with creating permanent facilities to house soldiers and their families.

In addition to increasing the number of NATO armored formations confronting Russian forces, it is also important to improve their fighting ability. Russia has not only deployed masses of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery systems in the Western and Southern Military Districts but is also working to improve the quality, and most specifically the lethality of those systems. The Russian Army is deploying the T-14 Armata main battle tank that can fire anti-tank guided missiles as well as shells and possesses an active protection system to defend against incoming rockets and anti-tank missiles. Russian forces are equipped with a variety of additional anti-tank guided missile systems, long-range artillery and rockets with a variety of warheads and very effective electronic warfare systems.

The U.S. has programs in place to upgrade the effectiveness and lethality of its major ground combat systems, the Abrams, Bradley and Paladin. The obsolescent M113 armored personnel carrier is being replaced with the Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle. A Stryker Lethality program is underway with the first of some 83 vehicles, equipped with a 30mm gun now arriving in Western Europe. Experiments are underway to identify active protection systems for these systems.

The effort to increase the deterrent effect of U.S. Army armored forces is limited by the pace of current modernization efforts. Simply put, so little funding is available that it will take decades to bring the armored combat platforms in the ABCTs and the Strykers to the desired levels of effectiveness and lethality. Plans have been proposed to accelerate upgrades for the Abrams tank, modernizing the entire force in about five years while reducing the program’s total cost. All the Stryker Brigades could receive the lethality upgrade package in a similar period of time. As Russia mounts one of the largest all-arms exercises it has ever conducted along its western borders, called Zapad 17, it is time to stop counting pennies and give the Army modernization the resources needed to build a credible deterrent force.

Daniel Gouré, Ph.D., is a vice president at the public-policy research think tank Lexington Institute. Goure has a background in the public sector and U.S. federal government, most recently serving as a member of the 2001 Department of Defense Transition Team.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/09/syria-laboratory-air-war-future/141111/?oref=d-river

Syria is a ‘Laboratory’ for the Air War of the Future

BY PATRICK TUCKER
READ BIO
SEPTEMBER 18, 2017

U.S. airmen are rapidly developing and remixing new technologies and techniques in the fight against ISIS, but sometimes you can’t beat the tried and true.

ISIS doesn’t have an Air Force, but the Syrian skies are nevertheless a rapidly evolving “laboratory” for air warfare, said U.S. military leaders, who described how the U.S. is fusing cyber attacks with real bombs and using open-source intelligence to find and strike targets.

Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, who leads U.S. Air Forces Central Command, described a “dynamic targeting tool” that lets analysts and airmen at al Udeid Air Base in Qatar send the latest targeting information to airborne pilots and ground-based commanders alike. “The tool pulls together everything from the intelligence background to show me all the data on that target. Where did that target generate, how many times have we looked at it? And how do we communicate that, ultimately.”

As described, the targeting tool — now in its third iteration — sounds a bit like the original vision for the infamous Distributed Common Ground System, but without going billions over budget and without crapping out at the worst possible time.

“You’ve got to get [real time data for targeting] into a format so that the commander, or whoever is making the decision on that specific target, has all the data fused and is ready to make a decision. That is what this provides. If we are going to stay in front of the enemy these are the types of tools that will be very helpful…particularly in a very dynamic situation,” Harrigian said at the Air Force Association’s annual conference in Maryland.

Developed with the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental, the targeting tool replaces “a bunch of different applications,” from publicly available (but modified) apps like Google Earth to more exotic ones. Crucially, it runs on a single computer, replacing apps that ran on several physically separate PCs. Analysts and airmen “basically had to go air-gapping from one system to another. You can imagine the amount of risk we were buying with respect to coordinates being passed, elevations, that sort of thing, that are critical to executing the actual execution of a target” said Harrigian.

A much more agile data targeting system is essential as the Air Force incorporates a greater variety of data into targeting and mixes live fire with cyber operations. “One of the things we’ve talked about — we have to accept it’s out there now — is how do you use that publicly available information” for targeting and operations in real time, said Harrigian. “I can tell you inside the [combined air operations center,] we are being very aggressive about monitoring what’s happening in social media and then leveraging that from a reporting perspective or do some analysis about what’s going on with the enemy.”

What does that look like? The Air Force first began talking about their push to incorporate social media analysis into targeting in 2015 when Air Combat Command’s Gen. Hawk Carlisle described how analysts fighting ISIS were “combing through social media and they see some moron standing at this [ISIS weapons depot]… So they do some work — long story short, about 22 hours later through that very building, three JDAMs take that entire building out.”

Last week, Gen. Joseph Votel, who leads U.S. Central Command, described what that looks like in 2017. Speaking at the Billington Cybersecurity Summit in downtown Washington, D.C., Votel described a highly co-ordinated strike that involved several government agencies and international military partners, who shut down ISIS communications with a cyber offensive, then dropped real bombs to add, in military-speak, “lethal effects.”

“We had a recent success in coordinating the lethal effects of our special operations and air components with highly targeted and effective cyber operations,” Votel said. “This model for success is being replicated for planning in future operations and will be used to maintain pressure on these enemy networks, be they located in Iraq, or Syria, or on servers around the world. With time and effort, we hope to expand the duration of impacts on adversarial capabilities.”

The Phone Where the United States Calls the Russians

Technology aside, the air mission over Syria is also growing increasingly complicated as Russian and Syrian forces converge on ISIS’s remaining strongholds. Over the weekend, a Russian fighter targeted a group of Syrian Defense Forces working from the same base as U.S. advisors. The strike prompted an urgent phone call from U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

In Syria itself, a single telephone — the “deconfliction line” — remains the main tool for averting catastrophic collisions with Russian forces On Monday, Harrigian gave a rare glimpse into life next to Putin’s army, which gets better or worse depending on whether the Russians are replacing seasoned troops with newbies.

“What I would tell you is as [the Russians] rotate in forces, there is typically a change in behavior. That’s something that we are keen to, now,” he said. “Oftentimes, when some of the inappropriate behavior occurs, we will get on the hotline immediately…Our airmen are the unsung heroes, interpreting and translating for us. They give us incredible context to what the Russians are trying to do. We get these young airmen, bring them in, they’ve never been in a [combat area] in their life, but they perform just superbly. They play a key role in making sure that we can manage what has often been a tenuous relationship with the Russians.”

It goes to show, all the technology in the world sometimes can’t substitute for a good phone call.

Patrick Tucker is technology editor for Defense One. He’s also the author of The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (Current, 2014). Previously, Tucker was deputy editor for The Futurist for nine years. Tucker has written about emerging technology in Slate, ... FULL BIO

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.longwarjournal.org/arch...100-strikes-against-aqap-so-far-this-year.php

US has launched ‘more than 100 strikes against AQAP’ so far this year

BY BILL ROGGIO | September 18th, 2017 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio

Graphic

Last week, after the US launched an airstrike in Yemen against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), FDD’s Long War Journal noted that US Central Command (CENTCOM) has consistently maintained since April 2017 that it has conducted more than 80 attacks against the terror group. Over the weekend, we inquired with CENTCOM to see if that number has changed, and received a response that “To date, the US has conducted more than 100 strikes against AQAP militants, infrastructure, fighting positions and equipment.”

In addition to the updated strike total for Yemen, the response is interesting as it notes that AQAP operatives are not the only target of the air campaign: the US military is also hitting the entirety of the network. This is important as AQAP is not merely a grouping of cells with a leadership that can easily be decapitated; it is a networked jihadist insurgency that seeks to overthrow the Yemeni state. This jihadist insurgency operates hand in hand with AQAP’s desire to attack the West.

AQAP has maintained an effective insurgency in Yemen despite nearly a decade of US targeting that has killed some of its top leaders, including its founder, Nasir al Wuhayshi. AQAP controlled large areas of the south, including provincial capitals, between 2011-2012 and again in 2015-2016. It has benefited greatly from Yemen’s multifaceted civil war, which includes a weak central government and Iranian-backed Shia Houthis that control the capital. The rump Yemeni government receives support from the US, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, yet AQAP still maintains control of rural areas in the south.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-of-kurdistan-independence-vote-idUSKCN1BV0FC

SEPTEMBER 19, 2017 / 10:07 PM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO

Kirkuk shaping up as flashpoint ahead of Kurdistan independence vote

Raya Jalabi, Ulf Laessing
8 MIN READ

KIRKUK, Iraq (Reuters) - Visitors to Kirkuk in northern Iraq are greeted by an imposing statue of a Kurdish Peshmerga fighter with a gun slung over his shoulder, a reminder of tensions building in the hotly-contested city ahead of a referendum on Kurdish independence.

Erected in July, the statue has come to symbolize how the Kurds want to cement their hold on oil-rich Kirkuk and other parts of the region by holding next Monday’s vote. Peshmerga, which means those who confront death, are the military forces of the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The referendum is risky, especially in Kirkuk, a multi-ethnic city also claimed by Arabs since oil was discovered there in the 1930s. The Kurdistan region produces around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil.

The central government in Baghdad, Iraq’s neighbors and Western powers fear the vote could divide the country and spark a wider regional conflict, after Arabs and Kurds cooperated to dislodge Islamic State from its stronghold in Mosul.

Already at least one Kurd has been killed in pre-referendum clashes, and security checkpoints have been erected across the city to prevent further violence.

But the Kurds say they are determined to go ahead with the vote, which, though non-binding, could trigger the process of separation in a country already divided along sectarian and ethnic lines. Iran, Turkey, the United States and Western allies oppose the vote.

Some non-Kurds fear Baghdad will attempt to regain control of Kirkuk and send in Shi‘ite militias (PMU), also known as the Hashid al-Shaabi, stationed just outside the province.

“I fear the Hashid will come and fighting will start in Kirkuk,” said Nazim Mohammed, an Arab from Mosul who fled to Kirkuk when the northern city was overrun by Islamic State.

Backed by Iran, the militias fear an independent Kurdistan would split Iraq, giving them and Tehran less influence.

Kirkuk, populated by Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, Christians and other minorities, is one of 15 ethnically mixed areas in northern Iraq that will participate in the referendum. They are claimed by both the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government(KRG).

A decision by KRG President Massoud Barzani to include these so-called disputed territories in the plebiscite was widely interpreted as a unilateral move to consolidate Kurdish control.

Critics say Kurdish intentions were already clear before the referendum was announced. Peshmerga fighters seized Kirkuk in 2014, after fleeing Iraqi security forces left its oil fields vulnerable to Islamic State militants who had just swept across northern Iraq.

The statue is dedicated to the Peshmerga and is designed to represent the appreciation of the people of Kirkuk.

KURDS MARK OUT TERRITORY

Tensions between the KRG and Baghdad are not new, and hinge on oil revenue. The Kurds have long accused Baghdad of failing to make budget payments to the region, while central government has opposed oil deals made by the Kurds without its consent.

Nevertheless, the Kurds have been marking their territory in the run-up to the vote. Peshmerga outposts dot the area, protecting the flaming oil fields on Kirkuk’s outskirts. Kurdish flags have been hoisted across the city since the spring, and now fly alongside Iraqi flags on government buildings.

Dreaming of long-denied statehood since World War One, the Kurds say the are ready to fight if necessary. “Kurdistan’s land belongs to the Kurdish people,” Kemal al-Kirkuki, the Kurdish military commander responsible for the front-line against Islamic State, told Reuters at his base in Dibis.

“No one, not the PMU, has the right to take it ... We will ask them to leave Kurdish territory, peacefully. But we are prepared to fight if we need to.”

On Monday, clashes broke out in Kirkuk after a Kurdish convoy celebrating the referendum drove by a Turkmen political party’s office. A Kurd was killed, and two others were injured, security sources said.

This followed a week of escalating rhetoric between the Kurdish leadership and Baghdad, where parliament voted to reject the referendum and oust Kirkuk’s Kurdish governor, Najmaddin Kareem.

The conflict over the disputed territories is bitter. If the Kurdistan region of Iraq declared a break-off from Baghdad, Kirkuk would fall right on the border between the two. Kirkuk produces around one quarter of the region’s oil.

“If the Kurds want to press for a separation of sorts,” said Joost Hiltermann, MENA program director at the International Crisis Group, “the boundary question becomes critically important.”

“If Baghdad and Erbil continue to take unilateral steps,” he said, “things can only escalate”.

There are no reliable statistics on Kirkuk’s population, where both Kurds and Arabs say they have a demographic majority; vital to legitimize their respective claims over the province.

RETURNING KURDS

Kirkuk was meant to have a census under the 2005 constitution, drafted two years after former Iraqi leader Saddam was toppled in the U.S.-led invasion, but it did not take place because of the risk of ethnic and religious tensions.

During Saddam’s Anfal campaign waged against the Kurds in the 1980s, there was a forced “Arabisation” of disputed areas, which ejected Kurds from the province. Arabs from other parts of Iraq were then settled, taking over Kurdish homes and businesses.

In 1988, Saddam caused international outrage by staging a chemical attack on the Kurdish city of Halabja which killed thousands of people.

Many Arabs have been ousted since Saddam was toppled in 2003, emboldening the Kurds to reclaim large parts of the disputed territories, including Kirkuk. Displaced Kurds were provided with incentives to return, while Kurds from other areas were also moved in, angering other minorities.

“Since 2003 some 600,000 Kurds have arrived, many of them are here illegally,” said Ali Mehdi Sadiq, a Turkman member of Kirkuk’s local council. “Without dialogue everything is possible. We need to avoid a war engulfing the whole of Iraq.”

“NOTHING COMES WITHOUT A PRICE”

He blamed Governor Kareem, a Kurd who lived for more than 30 years in the United States for what he called a Kurdish discrimination of minorities.

The governor said the Kurds would guarantee minorities’ rights, pointing to relative stability in the Kurdistan region in contrast to Baghdad where suicide bombings are frequent.

But his support for Kurdish independence is worrying minorities: he refused to sit behind an Iraqi flag during an interview, preferring the Kurdish one and said he would destroy his Iraqi passport the minute he got a Kurdish one.

He shrugged off the decision by Iraq’s parliament last week to sack him as “unlawful”, adding: “This is a proud day for me.”

Anticipating trouble ahead, some residents of Kirkuk have been stockpiling basic foods such as flour, rice and milk.

“Since they announced the referendum I have hardly had any customers. The market is dead,” said 27-year-old Ali Hamza, an Arab who has a small textiles shop in the old city.

Several Kurds interviewed supported the independence vote but privately said they were worried about clashes afterwards.

But faced with his people’s fears of clashes and economic problems, Governor Kareem said that when taking a big step like the referendum, “anything was possible”.

“Nothing comes without a price.”

For a graphic on Iraq's oil producing region of Kirkuk, click: here

Editing by Michael Georgy and Peter Millership

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/egypt-host-reorganization-libyan-army-49948849

Egypt says it will host 'reorganization' of Libyan army

By BRIAN ROHAN, ASSOCIATED PRESS CAIRO — Sep 19, 2017, 11:27 AM ET

Egypt said Tuesday it will host the "reorganization" of Libya's army, currently an eastern-based force led by Gen. Khalifa Hifter.

A statement signed by the Egyptian Committee on Libya said that Libyan military officers who met in Cairo recently chose Egypt as a starting point for plans to unify the army.

The group, chaired by Egypt's chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Mahmoud Hegazy, did not say which officials took part in the meeting, or provide further details.

A Libyan officer welcomed the initiative, thanking the Egyptian army "for facilitating such an opportunity for army officers to meet and find common ground."

"The army is open to discussion with all parties excluding terrorist organizations," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to brief reporters. "The army doesn't recognize any unofficial armed group but has opened discussions in the hope that militias will disband and join as individuals."

Libya sank into chaos following the 2011 uprising that toppled and killed dictator Moammar Gadhafi. It is split between rival parliaments, governments and militias in the east and west, but in late July its rival leaders pledged to cooperate. Egypt has backed Hifter in his conflict with the Tripoli government and associated militias.

The Egyptian statement said the Libyan officers pledge to maintain Libya's territorial integrity and create a modern and inclusive, civil democratic state based on a peaceful transfer of power.

Instability and banditry in the oil-rich country has turned it into a haven for people trafficking and migration to Europe.

Italy last month reached a verbal agreement with the country's western government, led by the internationally recognized but weak Fayez Serraj, to provide equipment, boats and salaries to militias working to stop the flow of migrants.

The U.N. Security Council has unanimously approved a resolution welcoming recent efforts to bring opposing sides together, with Secretary General Antonio Guterres saying that the time is right for mediation to restore peace.

Hifter supporters meanwhile have been gathering signatures to a petition urging him to run the country for the coming four years.

One of the movement's founders, Mohamed Juma, said that a million signatures had been gathered over the past ten days, mostly at physical locations but also electronically. There was no way to independently verify the number of signatures.

Hifter has modeled himself after Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, a close ally who led the Egyptian military's overthrow of an elected Islamist president in 2013 amid mass protests that were preceded by a similar campaign.

———

Associated Press writer Rami Musa in Benghazi, Libya, contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

Spanish police storm Catalan government buildings to stop independence referendum
Started by Marthanoir‎, Today 03:43 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ent-buildings-to-stop-independence-referendum


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41331152

Catalonia referendum: Spain steps up raids to halt vote
1 hour ago
From the section Europe

Spain's Guardia Civil police have detained a dozen senior Catalan officials and raided regional government ministries involved in organising a banned independence vote.

Tensions were already high when Josep Maria Jové, number two in the Catalan vice presidency, and others were held.

Catalan leaders are defying a court order to halt the vote, condemned by the Madrid government as illegal.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the state had been forced to act.

One Catalan leader called for peaceful resistance to protect the buildings.

"The time has come - let's resist peacefully; let's come out and defend our institutions," the president of the Catalan National Assembly, Jordi Sánchez, tweeted.

Catalan Vice-President Oriol Junqueras accused Spanish police of attacking the region's institutions and therefore its citizens too. "We will not allow it," he said.

In Madrid, Catalan separatist MP Gabriel Rufián told the prime minister in parliament he should take his "dirty hands" off Catalonia's institutions, Efe news agency reported.

Hundreds of protesters rallied outside the economy ministry as the operation took place, chanting "We will vote" and surrounding the Guardia Civil cars stationed outside.

How Spanish authorities are cracking down

Several ministries in Barcelona were raided on Wednesday, including the economy, foreign affairs, telecoms, social affairs and presidency buildings, 11 days before the planned referendum. The operation was a dramatic intensification of Spain's attempt to stop the vote taking place.

Spain plays cat and mouse as Catalan vote looms
Catalonia's collision course with Madrid
Spain poised to seize Catalan finances

Police were searching for computer equipment and any documentation linked to the planned 1 October vote. The day before, they seized some 45,000 envelopes with the Catalan government's logo from a private delivery company in Terrassa, north-west of Barcelona.

Mr Rajoy said the regional government had been warned that they were destroying Spain's national sovereignty, "There's no democratic state in the world that would accept what these people are planning," he said. He urged Catalan President Carles Puigdemont to comply with the law and put his secessionist challenge into "reverse gear".

Spain's government backed up by police and courts

The Madrid government has been backed up by Spain's Constitutional Court, which suspended the referendum law passed by the Catalan parliament.

Spain's national police has co-ordinated the raids. However, on Tuesday it has also had support from the regional Mossos d'Esquadra police force, which quelled a protest outside the Unipost delivery firm in Terrassa. Scuffles took place involving Catalan officers and pro-secession protesters.

Some 7.5 million people live in Spain's well-off north-eastern region. A majority of Catalans are thought to be in favour of having a vote. However, one survey commissioned by the Catalan government in July suggested that 41% of voters backed independence while 49% were opposed.

The Spanish government has also moved to take control of Catalonia's finances, in an attempt to stop public money being spent on the vote.

A deadline for the Catalan leadership to abandon the vote has run out, with Spain preparing to take over funding of most public services, including the payment of workers' salaries.

Stacks of boxes of envelopes found

One of the most important aims for the national authorities is to stop voting cards being sent out in the first place.

Among the documents seized in Terrassa were boxes suspected of containing voting cards. In earlier raids, only posters and other promotional election literature had been found.

A local judge in Terrassa authorised police to seize the envelopes and open one to assess whether a company official may have been involved in "misappropriating public money" for the 1 October vote.

The mayors of three small Catalan towns appeared in court on Tuesday on suspicion of helping the vote take place.

Spanish prosecutors have opened an investigation into more than 700 local mayors who have backed the referendum. If voting does go ahead, it will take place in Catalonia's schools and municipal buildings.

The Spanish government has also moved to take control of the region's finances, in an attempt to stop public money being spent on the vote.

A deadline for the Catalan leadership to abandon the vote has run out, with Spain preparing to take over funding of most public services, including the payment of workers' salaries.

However, the vice-president of the Catalan government, Oriol Junqueras, went to the Supreme Court on Tuesday to appeal against the decision. Accusing the national government of irresponsible behaviour, he said he was confident the appeal would in effect suspend Madrid's move.

The Catalan administration had all the resources it needed to meet its obligations, he said.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.fpri.org/2017/09/brave-new-nuclear-world/

Our Brave New Nuclear World

Author: Arthur Waldron
September 18, 2017
Comments 4

So now we have a North Korea armed with long-range missiles and thermonuclear weapons. Make no mistake. This is the new normal. Pyongyang will never give them up, and no one can make them do so.

The follow-on effects of this development will transform global politics and security policy. A wave of nuclear proliferation and military buildup is definitely to be expected. So one must ask: given our knowledge of what was going on in North Korea, how did we ever let this happen? Also we must ask, what realistically can be done to lower the threat of war?

In 1994, when President Bill Clinton announced the “agreed framework” with Pyongyang that he claimed to believe would solve the problem, I found myself in guest quarters at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. with my wife (from China) of just six years. President Clinton said, “North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program. South Korea and our other allies will be better protected. The entire world will be safer as we slow the spread of nuclear weapons.”

The American president also stressed that security would be maintained and that United States determination was firm.

Puzzled, my wife asked me, “What is this man saying.” I responded, “This, my darling, is what in America we call an ‘empty threat’” . . . and indeed it proved to be just that. Within six years, the CIA had detected North Korea’s clandestine program. In 2006, Pyongyang carried out her first nuclear test. “Experts” stated that alone North Korea was incapable of developing delivery systems or increasing the size of her arsenal. 2020 was given as the then conveniently remote date when Pyongyang might pose some rudimentary threat.

What went wrong? Intelligence failure of course. Inability to imagine what was going to happen as well. A failure of policy which sought to use negotiations and incentives (the provision of light water reactors) to bring Pyongyang around. Most important was a failure to take seriously the lessons of history.

Think of WWII. In Hitler’s time, the highest ranks of the military and security apparatus contained many opposed to war. They planned to carry out a coup if the Führer invaded Czechoslovakia. Those involved included Foreign Minister Konstantin von Neurath; Head of Intelligence Colonel Hans Osler; Head of Counter- Intelligence Admiral William Canaris; Chief of Staff of the Army Colonel-General Ludwig Beck, and the opposition contained many others—less well organized, from political parties as well as Protestant and Catholic Christians. When the Czech plans became known by the army, General Beck and others sent envoys to London and Paris who were rebuffed. Not, that is, until British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier came to terms with Hitler at Munich, in September 1938, sacrificing Czechoslovakia, thus inadvertently destroying the whole plan. Other plans were also made, but this one was perhaps the best chance. Reaching Czechoslovakia required passing through fortified mountain passes, and with the famous Škoda Works munitions factory supplying them, the efficient Czech army might well have broken Hitler’s momentum with a stalemate on difficult ground. It was, in other words, worth a try. The French and British governments should have reacted positively. Terrified, however, Chamberlain and others became intoxicated by a delusional vision of peace through sincere negotiation with Hitler and appeasement—i.e. letting him invade other countries, but not yours. The might-have-beens continue to add literature to an already substantial mountain of speculation.[1]

The historical lesson here is that often prairie fires are started by discarded matches showing almost no flame. Douse the match somehow and all will be well: otherwise, hundreds of thousands of acres may go up in a firestorm.

In geopolitical language, this means force or the credible threat of force are best used the instant a threat is detected. Civilized people, however, tend to place actual force far down the list—after engagement, negotiations, incentives, embargoes, etc. which do not work when a country is genuinely on the warpath.

Possibly, World War II could have been averted as late as 1938, but by 1939, Germany learned that the allies would not resist, so the war could only be fought to the bloody finish.[2]

Likewise, North Korea could have been stopped in 1994 by military threats or even strike operations against their nuclear facilities. Instead, we wasted time heedlessly and profligately. We weren’t even serious. No one had a gut sense of how bad things could really get. Yet, ask our people about how appeasement strengthened Hitler, and many could have given intelligent answers. But to them, this was history; it resided in their brains, but not their bones; they would never have made nor make such mistakes.

At that time, we also still harbored grave delusions with respect to Beijing’s interest in cooperation on the issue. In fact, one year after Clinton’s speech, China’s government made her first tentative move toward what is now territorial expansion greater in size than even that of the Third Reich at its largest—with the annexation of Mischief Reef from the Philippines.

Had we or the Philippines sent forces simply to demolish this minor maritime feature, China might well have desisted. Likewise, had the allies prepared for war or actually fought over Czechoslovakia, Hitler would never have acquired the aura of invincibility that so benefited his campaigns.

Now, the new situation has ratcheted into place. South Korea and Japan will likely become full nuclear powers. The existing East Asian arms race will pass through India to the western borders of Russia, thus menacing Europe. No solution exists any more, except a balance of terror. Sad nay tragic, but SO human. Welcome to the pre-war period.

[1] See among many others, Peter Hoffmann, The History of the German Resistance 1933-1945 (Cambridge, MA: MIT press, 1997))

[2] See Williamson Murray, The Change in the Balance of Power (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1984)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.insightcrime.org/news-an...ua-complicity-farc-money-laundering-resurface

Allegations of Venezuela, Nicaragua Complicity in FARC Money Laundering Resurface

Written by Parker Asmann
Tuesday, 19 September 2017

Recent testimony before the US Senate revived allegations that a Venezuela-owned company in Nicaragua may have laundered money for Colombia's demobilizing FARC guerrillas, once again raising the question of whether foreign governments may have been complicit in washing the fighters' dirty cash.

On September 12, Douglas Farah, the president of the national security consulting firm IBI Consultants, testified before the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control regarding adapting US counternarcotics efforts in Colombia.

In his testimony, among other things, Farah discussed "key elements of the ... foreign financial infrastructure" of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia - FARC), which signed a historic peace agreement with the Colombian government in 2016.

Specifically, Farah pointed to ALBA Petróleos and Albanisa, two subsidiaries of Venezuela's state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PdVSA), which operate in El Salvador and Nicaragua, respectively.

According to Farah, Albanisa is controlled by the "inner circle" of Nicaragua's ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional - FSLN) and President Daniel Ortega, who has been accused of providing weapons and other support to the FARC in the past.

Albanisa was allegedly set up as a "vehicle for social development" financed by PdVSA, which agreed to sell the company discounted oil if the profits were then used for social development. However, Farah said that "as much as $4 billion" had been "redirected for 'privatization,'" which often ended up "supporting political campaigns and enriching officials" in Nicaragua.

According to Farah's testimony, Albanisa has experienced continued "inexplicable and irrational economic growth," with "notable" financial irregularities in their revenues and expenses.

Unnamed sources within Albanisa cited by Farah reportedly said these so-called irregularities are the proceeds of "money laundering" and a "financial support cycle" involving "corrupt Venezuelan officials and drug trafficking organizations," including the FARC.

SEE ALSO: Coverage of FARC Peace

President Ortega has claimed publicly that Albanisa generates between $400 and $500 million per year. But according to a 2009 income statement analyzed by the Nicaraguan investigative news website Confidencial, Albanisa sells crude oil and its derivatives at a price "equivalent to its cost without any kind of profit margin."

Throughout the first eight months of 2009, Albanisa reported sales of $352,941,116 while their reported cost of sales was almost identical, $352,851,677, a difference of just under $90,000, according to Confidencial.

"This type of economically irrational behavior is generally seen when illicit money is being laundered into financial systems in order to justify its origin," Farah said in his testimony, adding that the funds flowing through Albanisa are "at least in significant part the FARC economic resources now being laundered into the world's financial system."

Furthermore, Farah explained that "mounting evidence" suggests that Albanisa's structures are "systematically" going out of business after "fulfilling their purpose" of laundering money.

Farah cited as one example the Albanisa-controlled Nicaragua Airways, which "only flew for four months after a multimillion-dollar investment." He also stated that "more than 60 Albanisa projects in Nicaragua have been shelved over the past year."

Officials in Nicaragua have demanded an investigation into these alleged FARC money laundering activities, while officials in El Salvador have demanded the United States open a similar investigation.

InSight Crime Analysis

The recent testimony by Farah has generated a spate of media interest in the allegations that high-level officials in leftist governments in Venezuela, Nicaragua and El Salvador helped the FARC launder money. These suspicions are not necessarily new, however. They began to surface in earnest in 2008 after the discovery of a computer belonging to FARC commander Raúl Reyes, and were alluded to by Farah in 2014 testimony before the US House of Representatives.

As far back as 2009, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) alleged that the FARC's extensive transnational money laundering network used several companies based in Venezuela and Costa Rica to manage the group's assets. And in 2015 Colombia's Prosecutor General's Office confirmed that money reportedly laundered by the FARC had reached Costa Rica.

Farah told InSight Crime that two parallel money laundering structures were set up in El Salvador and Nicaragua, although the latter's was more difficult to trace because "they've been good at removing documents and making public record trails more difficult to trace."

"We essentially extrapolated what we saw in El Salvador, which was a very large amount of money flowing into companies that was economically irrational. We saw the same thing in Nicaragua," he said.

SEE ALSO: Coverage of Money Laundering

As an example of this irrationality, Farah pointed to the El Supremo Sueño de Bolívar oil refinery in Nicaragua, which Albanisa was contracted to build in 2007 in large part from a $4.16 billion investment from Venezuela. Farah told InSight Crime that on paper it looks like the refinery is spending millions of dollars each year to refine Venezuelan petroleum, but in reality there is "no evidence of economic development."

"One of the clearest indicators [of illicit activity] is when things make no economic sense," Farah told InSight Crime. "What we saw in Nicaragua was this company [Albanisa] suddenly flushed with cash and setting up a whole host of companies overnight, but the purpose of these activities can't be generating profit; it is money laundering. Money laundering doesn't require investment to make profit, just to move large amounts of money though the system."

Although Farah said he could not know with complete certainty if the money flowing through these companies was linked to the FARC's finances, he said his sources helped him put the pieces together.

"We've had multiple conversations over the course of four years with people directly involved with setting these companies up, and putting in motion how they would move money in and out," he said.

Farah told InSight Crime that given the parallel structures observed in El Salvador and Nicaragua, and information from those directly involved, he feels "very confident" that Albanisa is directly tied to the FARC's illicit financial flows and constitutes a "significant part" of their international criminal enterprise.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/iraq-launches-offensive-hawija-islamic-state-held-region-032620760.html

Iraq launches offensive on Hawija, an Islamic State-held region near oil city Kirkuk

Reuters • September 20, 2017

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq launched an offensive on Thursday to dislodge Islamic State from Hawija, an area located west of the oil city of Kirkuk.

The offensive, announced by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, comes four days before a referendum on Kurdish independence due to be held in Kurdish-held areas of northern Iraq, including Kirkuk.

Abadi considers the referendum ''anti-constitutional'' and has called the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government to cancel it.

Hawija, north of Baghdad, and a stretch along the Syrian border, west of the Iraqi capital, are the last pieces of territory still in the hands of Islamic State in the country. The group took control of about a third of Iraq in 2014.

(Reporting by Maher Chmaytelli; Editing by Michael Perry)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/macron-says-iran-nuclear-deal-no-longer-enough-041908316.html

Macron says Iran nuclear deal no longer enough

AFP • September 20, 2017

United Nations (United States) (AFP) - France's President Emmanuel Macron declared Wednesday that the Iran nuclear deal is no longer a sufficient safeguard against the growing power that Tehran wields in its region.

"We need the 2015 accord," he said of the agreement. "Is this accord enough? It is not, given the growing pressure that Iran is applying in the region."

Macron was speaking in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, while ministers from Iran the six world powers that signed the accord met to discuss it.

US President Donald Trump, who was elected after the deal was signed, has threatened to pull out if Iran does not face greater controls on its missile and nuclear programs.

The other deal signatories, including France, insist it remains the best way to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb -- but Macron has said it could be improved.

He told reporters that Iran's ballistic missile program must be curtailed and cited the need to reassure "states in the region, and the United States."

 

[northern watch]

Strategic Sentinel‏Verified account @StratSentinel · 8h8 hours ago

Replying to @StratSentinel

#Russian MoD warns @CENTCOM that any fire from US-backed SDF will be immediately suppressed - @Lucian_Kim

 

[OldArcher]

Okay... So what is the consensus of this, "#Russian MoD warns @CENTCOM that any fire from US-backed SDF will be immediately suppressed - @Lucian_Kim"?

Is this Russia's warning of war, if we act defensively? If so, the gauntlet has been cast down, and to me, that would be more worrisome than a "red line." The Nork regime is just as dangerous and unstable, as any mu-slime organization or government. We are on thin ice, I fear, without having the benefit of flex or the sound of the ice cracking... May God have mercy upon us all...

GBY&Y's

Maranatha

OldARcher

 

[almost ready]

Some breaking news, but just headlines and evidence of some confusion

From twitter/breaking news


Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 2h2 hours ago

#BREAKING: #URGENT: Reports of second round of #Israel i airstrikes on #Damascus Intl Airport - more soon...

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 2h2 hours ago

#BREAKING: #URGENT: Two SYAD, presumably SAM, missiles were shot from #Damascus towards #Israel border, at least one drone shot down.

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: #Israeli airforce conductd 3 airstrike over international #Damascus airport, no injuries so far, #Syria air-defense downed drone.

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: #URGENT: Multiple sources now saying #Israel has bombed #Damascus airport or near it b/c #Syria shot down drone - uncnfmd, MS...

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: #URGENT: Report that #Syria shot down Israeli drone over Beit Jinn & that
Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: #UPDATE: Confusion on whether or not #Damascus Intl. was hit as a plane has just taken off - more soon...
(photo of darkness with a red explosion in the middle. Nothing to make out.

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: #URGENT: Uncnfmd reports say possible IDF plane shot down in #Damascus after “Israeli” airstrike on #Hezzah military base - MS

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: #URGENT: Reports that 2 SAM missiles fired - possible airstrike on Hezzah military base, explosions reported, “100% hit” on arcft

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: #URGENT: Multiple land-to-air missiles have shot down an “unidentified” aircraft in #Damascus - msls fired “towards border”, MS

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: #URGENT: “Explosion” heard at #Damascus Intl. Airport after “Unidentified” aircraft reportedly shot down - more soon...

Breaking News‏ @BreakingNGlobal 3h3 hours ago

#BREAKING: “Unidentified aircraft” shot down over #Damascus, #Syria

https://twitter.com/BreakingNGlobal

 

[Shacknasty Shagrat]

Someone is busy tonight.
I do not have info on how many times 'Skyking' was repeated.
SS


Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab

Third SKYKING EAM within the past hour.
7:04 PM - 21 Sep 2017

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/911048608610430977
'

 

[Shacknasty Shagrat]

Probably good advice.
SS

Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA 9m9 minutes ago

NHK: @Lufthansa, @SAS, @FlySWISS reroute flights to avoid Sea of Japan due to #DPRK missile threat.
https://twitter.com/W7VOA

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/back-to-the-future-with-mini-nukes/

Back to the future with mini-nukes?

21 Sep 2017 | Malcolm Davis

In 2003, the Bush administration caused a furore by proposing a new type of nuclear weapon, formally called the ‘Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator’ (RNEP), to defeat hard and deeply buried targets. The term ‘mini-nuke’ quickly became associated with the plan because of the ‘dial-a-yield’ feature of the design. Critics contended that the mini-nuke with lower yields blurred the distinction between conventional and nuclear war and made the use of nuclear weapons more likely. It was a return to Cold War–style tactical weapons, like Davy Crockett (a nuclear recoilless gun whose 20-ton TNT equivalent yield generated a lethal radiation zone that exceeded its launch range).

The trend towards lower-yield weapons has continued. In 2016, the US began development of the B61-12, which has a precision glide capability comparable to the conventional Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), delivering accuracy of around 30 metres. Once again, it has dial-a-yield feature, with a lowest setting of 0.3 kilotons (300 tons), and it has an earth-penetrating capability. So, with the B61-12, RNEP lives, and once again this raises the issue of enhanced usability.

Since the end of the Cold War, Washington’s attention to nuclear strategy has waned. Nuclear weapons have tended to be seen in the West in the context of arms control and disarmament. That stance was bolstered by the increasingly strident efforts of proponents of abolition and nuclear ‘global zero’ to rid the world of nuclear weapons, off the back of President Obama’s 2009 Prague speech:

So today, I state clearly and with conviction America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. This goal will not be reached quickly—perhaps not in my lifetime. It will take patience and persistence. But now we, too, must ignore the voices who tell us that the world cannot change.​

Obama added a caveat to this soaring rhetoric, noting that ‘as long as [nuclear] weapons exist’, the US would ‘maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and guarantee that defense to our allies’.

Neither Russia nor China seems ready to jump on the abolitionist bandwagon, as they are too busy with nuclear force modernisation of their own. Nor do the Indians or the Pakistanis, who nervously point their nuclear weapons at each other. Clearly, denuclearisation is the last thing on Kim Jong-un’s mind, and the Iranians, having reaped the financial benefits of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, still have their nuclear option in their back pocket when the deal sunsets in 2025. In the interim, they can continue to collaborate on nuclear weapons technology and missile systems with North Korea.

In contrast, US nuclear forces are ageing out. If we want a credible nuclear deterrent for an uncertain future, it’s clear that capability development must proceed. The modernisation of tactical nuclear weapons such as the B61-12 must go hand in hand with strategic force development, including replacing the Minuteman III ICBM, building sufficient numbers of B-21 Raider bombers to make it an effective capability, and proceeding with the Columbia-class submarines that will replace Ohio-class boomers.

We must also get serious about nuclear strategy again, by re-emphasising deterrence as the basis for nuclear force development rather than seeing nuclear weapons through the prism of arms control only. Deterrence works by preventing an opponent from acting in a manner inimical to our interests. If nuclear deterrence is effective, weapons don’t need to be used. That in turn demands a high degree of assurance that nuclear forces are in fact usable. Deterrence isn’t about bluffing. We shouldn’t recoil from discussing nuclear warfighting in the context of reinforcing deterrence, because to proceed under the illusion that deterrence doesn’t imply credible, usable forces misconstrues the concept. Mini-nukes and the B61-12 make sense if they reinforce deterrence credibility and thus make nuclear war less likely.

With that thought in mind, there has been growing interest in the Trump administration’s new Nuclear Posture Review, which is reportedly considering a greater focus on the use of mini-nukes, particularly as a counter to Russia’s pre-emptive de-escalation doctrine (i.e. ‘escalate to win’). It’s unclear whether that would involve new nuclear weapons, with the potential requirement for new nuclear testing, or an intent to work towards operational deployment of the B61-12. But much of the critical commentary has focused on such weapons being usable because they imply lower yields. Critics refer to a recent Defence Science Board report that advocates offering the president ‘rapid, tailored nuclear options for limited use should existing non-nuclear or nuclear options prove insufficient’ (PDF, p. 24). That seems to imply a return to limited nuclear war. Groeteschele notes in Fail-Safe that limited nuclear war is ‘not theoretical’. We’ve never fought one, but we do real planning for such an eventuality, and for good reason.

Having options beyond immediate surrender or suicidal all-out thermonuclear war is logical. The question of whether a limited nuclear war could be fought remains unanswered, but embracing an illusion epitomised by nuclear taboos leaves us unprepared for a more dangerous future. Discussion of mini-nukes and limited options represents a return to thinking about nuclear strategy and how it will drive future capability. That is a welcome step.

AUTHOR
Malcolm Davis is a senior analyst at ASPI. Image courtesy of PBS.

 

[Housecarl]

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/india-just-called-pakistan-terroristan-075712872.html

India Just Called Pakistan ‘Terroristan’ At the U.N. General Assembly

Newsweek
Conor Gaffey, Newsweek 15 hours ago

India denounced Pakistan as “the land of pure terror” and branded it “Terroristan” in an explosive speech at the U.N. General Assembly, which comes on the back of deadly clashes in the disputed territory of Kashmir.

The two states regularly clash over the Muslim-majority region of Kashmir, under Indian control since the country’s partition in 1947 but which Pakistan also claims as part of its territory.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi called for a U.N. investigation to “verify the nature and extent of India’s human rights violations” in Kashmir and called the issue the “most intense foreign military occupation” of recent times.

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In its right of reply, the Indian delegation lashed out at Pakistan for purportedly harboring terrorists, including former Al-Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden and ex-Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

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“In its short history, Pakistan has become a geography synonymous with terror. The quest for a land of pure has actually produced the land of pure terror,” said Eenam Gambhir, India’s first secretary to the U.N. The prefix Pak means pure in Urdu, the official language of Pakistan.

“Pakistan is now ‘Terroristan,’ with a flourishing industry producing and exporting global terrorism.”

ANI ✔ @ANI
#WATCH: India hits out at Pakistan calling it 'Terroristan'-with a flourishing industry producing & exporting global terrorism #UN #Geneva
8:33 PM - Sep 21, 2017
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Numerous global terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda and the Haqqani network, have used Pakistan as a base for carrying out attacks. President Donald Trump recently issued a tough statement on Pakistan, saying that Washington could “no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organizations.”

Vice-President Mike Pence met with the Pakistani prime minister on the sidelines of the U.N. meeting on Wednesday. Pence said that he had reiterated Trump’s belief that “Pakistan has much to gain” from partnering with U.S. efforts in the region.

Vice President Pence ✔ @VP
Met w/ Pakistani PM Abbasi at @UN. Reiterated @POTUS' belief that "Pakistan has much to gain from partnering with our effort" in the region.
4:19 PM - Sep 19, 2017
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Pakistan has denied playing host to terrorist groups and in his U.N. speech, Prime Minister Abbasi said that “after 9/11 it was Pakistani efforts that enabled the decimation of Al-Qaeda.”

Abbasi also said that Pakistan refused to be a “scapegoat” for the Afghan war. U.S. officials have accused Pakistan’s intelligence services of cooperating with militants in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and India have fought three wars since they both gained independence from Britain in 1947, two of them over Kashmir. The region has witnessed an armed revolt against Indian rule since 1989.

Two Indian soldiers were beheaded on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control that divides Kashmir in May. Delhi said that the Pakistani army was responsible but Islamabad denied it.

Three civilians were killed in a grenade attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on Wednesday in a suspected militant attack. India regularly blames Pakistan for militant attacks in the region.

 

[Housecarl]

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https://www.thecipherbrief.com/arti...y-accuses-russia-lying-war-game-troop-numbers

US Army Accuses Russia of Lying About War Game Troop Numbers - The Cyber Brief

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017 | MACKENZIE WEINGER

With the Zapad 2017 military exercise, Russia “overplayed their hand” and the country’s “credibility is in tatters,” U.S. Army Europe commander Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said Thursday.

“Nobody considers them the masters of the information space, which maybe a year ago everybody was talking about how great and clever they were. Now nobody believes anything they have to say,” he told the CEPA Forum 2017 in Washington, D.C.

That’s because of the troop numbers the Russians alleged to have involved in the week-long joint Russian-Belarusian exercise, which ended September 20. According to Russian figures, just 12,700 troops participated. That’s conveniently under the 13,000-troop threshold in the Vienna document — an agreement among the nations of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe of which Russia is a member — where a state must notify other countries in advance of the exercise and have it be open to observers.

“I think Russian credibility is in tatters. Nobody in this room, or frankly anywhere outside of Russia, believes anything they say about their exercises,” Hodges said. “It’s an amazing coincidence that every exercise has 12,700 soldiers. But nobody believes them…They’ve overplayed their hand.”

There were at least 20,000 to 21,000 Russian soldiers involved, “plus all the other bits and pieces connected with this exercise,” Hodges noted.

Zapad, which means “west,” simulated a response to an attempted overthrow of the Belarusian government by an insurgency unfriendly to Russia.

NATO and the U.S. are just at the start of analyzing the exercise and taking lessons from it, but Hodges said he has already identified another key way the West benefited from Zapad beyond the hit it dealt to Russian credibility. Critically, the intelligence operations surrounding Zapad were at a very high level, according to Hodges.

“Number one, the relationship between all of the intelligence services, between the nations, between the alliance, bilateral, multilateral — the intelligence enterprise, we call it — is closer now than I have ever seen in my 37 years in the Army. Zapad forced us to get smarter about how we share intelligence, and it was a terrific opportunity. So I am very pleased with how I’ve seen some walls come down on sharing intelligence,” he said.

Before the exercise started, General Philip Breedlove, who served as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and Commander of U.S. European Command until May 2016, told The Cipher Brief that “I do not believe that Mr. Putin wants to start a war, but that doesn’t mean that it couldn’t happen.”

“But I think he understands that that would be costly to all sides, and I would hope that cooler heads and better judgment would prevail. But we can’t live in this way. The glib saying you often hear is ‘hope is not a strategy.’ We have to be prepared for all contingencies, and so we have to be serious in our inspection of what we think is happening in Zapad, and look at it for what it could be,” he said.

Following the last Zapad military exercises in 2013—which the West said involved nearly 70 thousand troops—Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

However, Retired Brigadier General Jarosław Stróżyk, who served as Poland’s Defense Attaché for the Army, Navy and Air in Washington, D.C., wrote in The Cipher Brief that Zapad 17 wasn’t making Poland or its neighbors “particularly nervous.”

“We have grown accustomed to this kind of show of force and all kinds of snap exercises on our eastern and northern borders. We are glad, however, that we managed to convince our U.S. and NATO friends that Russia is using a ‘post-truth’ approach in each and every case of informing about its military activity, be it drills or real operations. We’ve been sending these messages for the last nine years,” he wrote.

Mackenzie Weinger is a national security reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @mweinger.