WAR 08-07-2015-to-08-14-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

(175) 07-18-2015-to-07-24-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...24-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(176) 07-25-2015-to-07-31-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...31-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(177) 08-01-2015-to-08-07-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...07-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/08/us-mali-violence-idUSKCN0QC18E20150808

World | Sat Aug 8, 2015 3:35pm EDT
Related: World, United Nations, Mali

At least 12 dead as Mali siege ends, some U.N. workers freed

BAMAKO | By Emma Farge and Adama Diarra


At least 12 people were killed during a nearly 24-hour siege of a hotel in central Mali seized by suspected Islamist gunmen that ended on Saturday as security forces stormed the building and released some of the United Nations workers trapped inside.

Four U.N. contractors were freed in the pre-dawn raid, but Mali's U.N. peacekeeping operation MINUSMA said five people associated with the mission had died, while Malian officials counted three hostages dead.

Five soldiers and four gunmen, including one who officials said had been strapped with explosives, were also killed, a Defence Ministry spokesman said.

The gunmen had seized the Byblos Hotel in the town of Sevare, around 600 km (375 miles) northeast of the west African nation's capital Bamako, early on Friday and held off government troops who quickly surrounded the building.

The attack was the latest in what appears to be a growing campaign against Malian soldiers and U.N. personnel by remnants of an al Qaeda-linked insurgency and newly formed local Islamist groups.

Military spokesman Colonel Souleymane Maiga said the early suspicion was that the Massina Liberation Front, whose members are mainly drawn from central Mali's ethnic Peul community, had carried out the attack.

A Sevare resident living near the hotel told Reuters that the security forces had launched their raid between 4 and 5 a.m. (12:00 a.m.-01:00 a.m. EDT), saying: "We didn't hear heavy weapons this time. There was just some small arms fire."


Related Coverage
› Hostages killed in Mali hotel siege from South Africa, Russia, Ukraine

On Friday, Malian forces had used heavy weapons, including rocket-propelled grenades, in a failed attempt to dislodge the gunmen.

The resident and a Malian military source said a special unit of the Malian gendarmes had carried out Saturday's raid.


"THEY WERE HIDING"

MINUSMA spokeswoman Radhia Achouri said four U.N. contractors - two from South Africa along with a Russian and a Ukrainian - had been freed: "At no point were they discovered by the terrorists in the hotel. They were hiding."

She said the five personnel associated with the mission who had been killed were a Nepalese, a South African, two Ukrainians and a Malian.

South Africa's Foreign Ministry confirmed that two of its citizens were safe while a 38-year-old Pretoria resident working for an aviation company contracted to MINUSMA had died.

Malian military and government officials had earlier said three hostages, from South Africa, Russia and Ukraine, had died. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry also said in a statement that one of its citizens was believed to be dead while three others had escaped or been freed.

Seven suspects were arrested in connection with the attack, according to a government statement released late on Friday.

A 2013 French-led military operation drove back Islamist fighters, who had taken advantage of an ethnic Tuareg rebellion and a military coup to seize territory in the north a year earlier.

While the United Nations has managed to broker a tenuous peace agreement between the government and Tuareg separatists, Islamist fighters left out of the negotiations have mounted an insurgency.

Former colonial ruler France and other Western and regional nations fear Islamist fighters could turn the remote region into a launch pad for attacks further afield if they regain power there.


(Additional reporting by Tiemoko Diallo and Souleymane Ag Anara in Bamako, Jason Bush in Moscow, Emmanuel Jarry in Paris, Tiiseto Motsoeneng in Johannesburg and Alessandra Prentice in Kiev; Writing by Joe Bavier; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/08/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN0QD0JO20150808

World | Sat Aug 8, 2015 3:06pm EDT
Related: World, Yemen

Anti-Houthi forces take strategic city in Yemen, Emirati troops killed

ADEN/DUBAI

Fighters backed by an Arab military coalition seized the key city of Zinjibar in southern Yemen on Saturday, residents and militia sources said, dealing another major blow to the dominant Houthi group.

The capital city of Abyan province on the Arabian Sea had been a major focus of forces battling the Iranian-allied Houthis. It is the fourth regional capital they have won since taking control of the port of Aden last month.

Three soldiers from the United Arab Emirates were reported killed while taking part in the Saudi-led military campaign against the Houthis, UAE state news agency WAM said on Saturday.

Southern militia sources said they had been killed by landmines planted by the Houthis while entering Zinjibar.

Saudi Arabia and a coalition of other Sunni Muslim states have been fighting since March to restore Yemen's exiled government and to repel the Shi'ite Houthis, who took control of the capital Sanaa in September.

At least two other Emirati soldiers have been killed in Yemen since the offensive began. The UAE has not given details on how any of their personnel died.

The coalition has been supporting anti-Houthi fighters with air strikes, military training and the delivery of tanks and heavy artillery.

Gulf-backed southern Yemeni fighters who are based in the southern port of Aden also made gains against the Houthis in heavy fighting in the southern province of Dalea on Saturday.


(Reporting By Noah Browning; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky and Digby Lidstone)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://news.yahoo.com/deadly-explosions-kabul-derail-peace-process-164457092.html

Deadly explosions in Kabul: Will they derail the peace process?

Experts disagree whether the deadly bombings were a display of force by the Taliban or a diversion from the Taliban's leadership struggle.

Christian Science Monitor
By Denise Hassanzade Ajiri
3 hours ago

A wave of attacks on Friday in Kabul killed more than 50 people, primarily civilians and young police cadets, and wounded hundreds.

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1. Attacks on army, police, U.S. special forces kill 50 in Kabul Reuters
2. Kabul bombings leave 51 dead, hundreds wounded AFP
3. Afghan capital on edge after attacks kill at least 44 people Associated Press
4. Afghan Taliban confirm Mullah Omar's death, choose successor Associated Press
5. Kabul blasts kill 35, test Afghan president's peace plan Associated Press

The bloodshed began when a truck bomb exploded in a heavily populated district of the capital, killing 15. A later suicide bombing at a police academy left at least 25 people dead, the BBC reported. Meanwhile an hours-long battle at a base in Kabul killed 11 people, including a NATO soldier and eight contractors. The UN mission in Afghanistan said the wave of violence was the worst since the organization began recording civilian casualties in 2009.

A Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahed, said the group was responsible for the attack on the police academy, AFP reports, but no one has yet claimed the other two attacks.

Recommended: How much do you know about terrorism? Take the quiz.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani condemned the violence and said the attacks were aimed at diverting public attention from the Taliban's leadership struggle.

Nicholas Haysom, the head of the UN mission in Afghanistan, agreed. "We suspect the upsurge in violence may be triggered by the succession battle within the Taliban," he told the BBC.

Last week, Afghan authorities announced the death of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar. According to Afghan intelligence, Mr. Omar died more than two years ago in a hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. The revelation sparked a leadership struggle among senior Taliban figures.

A leadership council last week appointed Mullah Akhtar Mansour, Omar’s deputy since 2010, to head the movement, but he is facing internal resistance, including from members of Omar’s family, The Guardian reports.

Analysts suggest there has been infighting within the group between supporters and opponents of Mansour, which could endanger the peace process that was suspended last week after the announcement of Mullah Omar's death, reports the BBC.

Recommended: In Pictures Talking to the Taliban

Others suggest the recent violence could be an attempt to display the Taliban's military power ahead of talks.

"We are in a very delicate stage in the peace process. It appears some members (of the Taliban) still want to fight,” Al Jazeera reported after Friday's attacks. "The attacks probably are an attempt by some fighters to show that they still have some power, so that they have some clout when they come to the negotiating table.”

The attacks add to a rising number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan in 2015. In a report published on Wednesday, the UN said more deaths and injuries have been reported this year than any year since the start of the US-led invasion of the country in 2001. Nearly 1,600 civilians have died already this year, said the UN, including a sharp rise in the number of women and children victims.

The UN's Mr. Haysom denounced Friday's attacks as "extreme, irreversible and unjustifiable in any terms."

Material from wire services was used in this report.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150808/ml--inside_the_caliphate-saddam_legacy-5d226b56f8.html

IS top command dominated by ex-officers in Saddam's army

Aug 8, 2:59 AM (ET)
By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA

(AP) In this June 18, 2003 file photo, U.S. soldiers, partly seen at right,...
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BAGHDAD (AP) — While attending the Iraqi army's artillery school nearly 20 years ago, Ali Omran remembers one major well. An Islamic hard-liner, he once chided Omran for wearing an Iraqi flag pin into the bathroom because it included the words "God is great."

"It is forbidden by religion to bring the name of the Almighty into a defiled place like this," Omran recalled being told by Maj. Taha Taher al-Ani.

Omran didn't see al-Ani again until years later, in 2003. The Americans had invaded Iraq and were storming toward Baghdad. Saddam Hussein's fall was imminent. At a sprawling military base north of the capital, al-Ani was directing the loading of weapons, ammunition and ordnance into trucks to spirit away. He took those weapons with him when he joined Tawhid wa'l-Jihad, a forerunner of al-Qaida's branch in Iraq.

Now al-Ani is a commander in the Islamic State group, said Omran, who rose to become a major general in the Iraqi army and now commands its 5th Division fighting IS. He kept track of his former comrade through Iraq's tribal networks and intelligence gathered by the government's main counterterrorism service, of which he is a member.

(AP) In this Aug. 4, 2015 photo, souvenirs of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein are...
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It's a common trajectory.

Under its leader, Iraqi jihadi Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State group's top command is dominated by former officers from Saddam's military and intelligence agencies, according to senior Iraqi officers on the front lines of the fight against the group, as well as top intelligence officials, including the chief of a key counterterrorism intelligence unit.

The experience they bring is a major reason for the group's victories in overrunning large parts of Iraq and Syria. The officers gave IS the organization and discipline it needed to weld together jihadi fighters drawn from across the globe, integrating terror tactics like suicide bombings with military operations. They have been put in charge of intelligence-gathering, spying on the Iraqi forces as well as maintaining and upgrading weapons and trying to develop a chemical weapons program.

Patrick Skinner, a former CIA case officer who has served in Iraq, said Saddam-era military and intelligence officers were a "necessary ingredient" in the Islamic State group's stunning battlefield successes last year, accounting for its transformation from a "terrorist organization to a proto-state."

"Their military successes last year were not terrorist, they were military successes," said Skinner, now director of special projects for The Soufan Group, a private strategic intelligence services firm.

(AP) In this March 16, 2009 file photo, detainees pray at former U.S. military...
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How officers from Saddam's mainly secular regime came to infuse one of the most radical Islamic extremist groups in the world is explained by a confluence of events over the past 20 years — including a Saddam-era program that tolerated Islamic hard-liners in the military in the 1990s, anger among Sunni officers when the U.S. disbanded Saddam's military in 2003, and the evolution of the Sunni insurgency that ensued.

The group's second-in-command, al-Baghdadi's deputy, is a former Saddam-era army major, Saud Mohsen Hassan, known by the pseudonyms Abu Mutazz and Abu Muslim al-Turkmani, according to the intelligence chief. Hassan also goes by Fadel al-Hayali, a fake name he used before the fall of Saddam, the intelligence chief told The Associated Press. Like others, he spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence.

During the 2000s, Hassan was imprisoned in the U.S.-run Bucca prison camp, the main detention center for members of the Sunni insurgency, where al-Baghdadi also was held. The prison was a significant incubator for the Islamic State group, bringing militants like al-Baghdadi into contact with former Saddam officers, including members of special forces, the elite Republican Guard and the paramilitary force called Fedayeen.

In Bucca's Ward 6, al-Baghdadi gave sermons and Hassan emerged as an effective organizer, leading strikes by the prisoners to gain concessions from their American jailers, the intelligence chief said.

Former Bucca prisoners are now throughout the IS leadership. Among them is Abu Alaa al-Afari, a veteran Iraqi militant who was once with al-Qaida and now serves as the head of IS's "Beit al-Mal," or treasury, according to a chart of what is believed to be the group's hierarchy provided to the AP by the intelligence chief.

(AP) In this Jan. 6, 1999 photo, an Iraqi officer prepares his soldiers before the...
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Al-Baghdadi has drawn these trusted comrades even closer after he was wounded in an airstrike earlier this year, the intelligence chief said. He has appointed a number of them to the group's Military Council, believed to have seven to nine members — at least four of whom are former Saddam officers. He brought other former Bucca inmates into his inner circle and personal security.

Saddam-era veterans also serve as "governors" for seven of the 12 "provinces" set up by the Islamic State group in the territory it holds in Iraq, the intelligence chief said.

Iraqi officials acknowledge that identifying IS leadership is an uncertain task. Besides al-Baghdadi himself, the group almost never makes public even the pseudonyms of those in its hierarchy. When leaders are killed, it's often not known who takes their place — and several have been reported killed multiple times, only to turn up alive. Figures are believed to take on new pseudonyms, leaving it unclear if a new one has emerged or not.

"IS's military performance has far exceeded what we expected. The running of battles by the veterans of the Saddam military came as a shock," a brigadier general in military intelligence told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic. "Security-wise, we are often left unable to know who replaces who in the leadership. We are unable to infiltrate the group. It is terrifying."

Estimates of the number of Saddam-era veterans in IS ranks vary from 100 to 160 in mostly mid- and senior-level positions, according to the officials. Typically, they hail from Sunni-dominated areas, with intelligence officers mostly from western Anbar province, the majority of army officers from the northern city of Mosul and members of security services exclusively from Saddam's clan around his hometown of Tikrit, said Big. Gen. Abdul-Wahhab al-Saadi, a veteran of battles against IS north and west of Baghdad.

(AP) In this June 8, 2008, file photo, a U.S. soldier at a press conference in...
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For example, a former brigadier general from Saddam-era special forces, Assem Mohammed Nasser, also known as Nagahy Barakat, led a bold assault in 2014 on Haditha in Anbar province, killing around 25 policemen and briefly taking over the local government building.

Many of the Saddam-era officers have close tribal links to or are the sons of tribal leaders in their regions, giving IS a vital support network as well as helping recruitment. These tribal ties are thought to account, at least in part, for the stunning meltdown of Iraqi security forces when IS captured the Anbar capital of Ramadi in May. Several of the officers interviewed by the AP said they believe IS commanders persuaded fellow tribesmen in the security forces to abandon their positions without a fight.

Skinner, the former CIA officer, noted the sophistication of the Saddam-era intelligence officers he met in Iraq and the intelligence capabilities of IS in Ramadi, Mosul and in the group's de facto capital of Raqqa in Syria.

"They do classic intelligence infiltration. They have stay-behind cells, they actually literally have sleeper cells," Skinner said.

"And they do classic assassinations, which depends on intelligence," he said, citing a wave of assassinations in 2013 that targeted Iraqi police, army, hostile tribal leaders and members of a government-backed Sunni militia known as Sahwa. Knowing who to assassinate and how to get to them requires good information, Skinner said, and the IS obviously knew how to acquire it.

(AP) In this Oct. 4, 2003 file photo, American soldiers aim towards a...
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One initiative that eventually fed Saddam veterans into IS came in the mid-1990s when Saddam departed from the stringent secular principles of his ruling Baath party and launched the "Faith Campaign," a state-sponsored drive to Islamize Iraqi society. Saddam's feared security agencies began to tolerate religious piety or even radical views among military personnel, although they kept a close watch on them and saw to it they did not assume command positions.

At the time, the move was seen as a cynical bid to shore up political support among the religious establishment after Iraq's humiliating rout from Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War and the Kurdish and Shiite uprisings that followed.

"Most of the army and intelligence officers serving with IS are those who showed clear signs of religious militancy during Saddam days," the intelligence chief said. "The Faith Campaign ... encouraged them."

In the run-up to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, Saddam publicly invited foreign mujahedeen to come to Iraq to resist the invaders. Thousands came and Iraqi officials showed them off to the media as they were trained by Iraqi instructors. Many stayed, eventually joining the insurgency against American troops and their Iraqi allies.

After the collapse of the Saddam regime, hundreds of Iraqi army officers, infuriated by the U.S. decision to disband the Iraqi army, found their calling in the Sunni insurgency. In its early stages, many insurgent groups were relatively secular. But Islamic militants grew in prominence, particularly with the creation and increasing strength of al-Qaida in Iraq. Some Sunnis were radicalized by bitterness against the Shiite majority, which rose to power after Saddam's fall and which the Sunnis accuse of discriminating against them.

(AP) In this June 16, 2014 file photo, demonstrators chant pro-Islamic State group...
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Al-Qaida in Iraq was initially led by a Jordanian militant, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and had a strong foreign presence in its leadership. But after al-Zarqawi's death in a 2006 U.S. airstrike, his Iraqi successor, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, began to bring in more Iraqis, particularly former Saddam officers. That process was accelerated when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took over after his predecessor was killed in a 2010 airstrike.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's first two deputies, who each played a major role in setting up what would become its sweep over Syria and Iraq, were both Saddam-era officers, according to those interviewed by the AP. They were Sameer al-Khalifawy, an air force colonel killed in fighting in Syria in 2014, and Abdullah el-Bilawy, a former intelligence officer who was killed in Mosul by the Iraqi military in May 2014, a month before the city fell to the Islamic State group. He was replaced by the current deputy, Hassan.

"It's clear that some of these (Saddam-era officers) must have been inside the core of the jihadist movement in the Sunni triangle from the beginning," said Michael W.S. Ryan, a former senior executive at the State Department and Pentagon, referring to the Sunni-dominated area that was the most hostile to American forces in Iraq.

"Their knowledge is now in the DNA of ISIS," he said, using an alternate acronym for the extremist group.

"This melding of the Iraqi experience and what we might call the Afghan Arab experience became the unique ISIS brand," said Ryan, now a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based think tank.

"That brand ultimately became more successful in Iraq than al-Qaida in Iraq ... and, at least for now, stronger in Syria than al-Qaida."

---_

Associated Press writer John-Thor Dahlburg contributed to this report from Brussels, Belgium.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150808/af--mali-violence-569a91c219.html

Attack in central Mali sign of spreading extremist violence

Aug 8, 2:54 PM (ET)
By BABA AHMED and CARLEY PETESCH

(AP) In this Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2013 file photo, a Malian soldier takes position...
Full Image

BAMAKO, Mali (AP) — The first attack by Islamic extremists in a central Mali town, in which 10 people died, shows that jihadist aggressions are spreading in the country and hitting more directly at the government military and the U.N. peacekeeping force, an expert said Saturday.

Three of the attackers also were killed, and seven suspected militants were detained, the government said. Four U.N. employees were rescued.

Additional U.N. personnel may still be missing, said a U.N. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of lack of authorization to speak to the press.

The militants first targeted the army camp in Sevare on Friday but when they faced resistance they moved to the nearby Hotel Debo before assaulting the Hotel Byblos, popular with U.N. staff, to take hostages, said a Mali government report, according to the U.N. official.

(AP) In this Thursday, Jan. 24, 2013 file photo, Malian troops man an observation...
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Sevare, a garrison town about 600 kilometers (375 miles) northeast of the capital, Bamako, is at the heart of Mali's tourism industry and up until now had not been targeted in the attacks more common in the northern towns of Gao and Timbuktu.

"It's a troubling sign that the armed Islamist groups are intent on stepping up the pressure both on the Malian government and on the U.N. and French presence," said Bruce Whitehouse, Mali expert and associate professor at Lehigh University. "They want to show they are not just contained within the north and that they're not afraid to confront their primary enemies where they're strongest."

Whitehouse said the attack was likely intended "to signal all Malians everywhere that neither their government nor the U.N. can keep them safe," but he noted the rapid response by Mali's forces.

The attackers may be followers of Amadou Koufa, a leader who has been linked to attacks on Mali's army including a January attack that killed 10 soldiers in Nampala, said Col. Souleymane Maiga, chief spokesman for the military.

The four rescued U.N. employees are two South Africans, a Russian and a Ukrainian who are all in good health, said U.N. mission in Mali spokeswoman Radhia Achouri.

"Our contractors survived because at no time was their presence discovered by the terrorists in the hotel," she said adding there was not much resistance Saturday morning during the rescue by special forces.

In a statement later Saturday, the U.N. mission in Mali said five of its contractors died, including a Malian driver, a Nepalese, a South African and two Ukrainians. The bodies will be taken to Bamako, it said.

Military spokesman Col. Maiga confirmed that these five — earlier thought to be hotel workers — were among those found dead Friday and after the operation Saturday morning.

The 13 total dead also included five Malian soldiers and three of the attackers, he said.

The 38-year-old South African who died in the attack worked for an aviation company that was assisting the U.N. contingent in Mali, Nelson Kgwete, spokesman for South Africa's foreign ministry, said on Twitter.

Islamic extremists took over Mali's north in 2012. A French-led offensive ousted them from the northern cities in early 2013. Remnants of the extremists have staged attacks on U.N. peacekeepers and Malian forces.

Mali's jihadi groups have been stepping up their attacks further south. The most recent extremist attack in the capital occurred in March when masked gunman opened fire in a restaurant popular with foreigners, killing five people.

---

Petesch reported from Dakar, Senegal. Associated Press writer Christopher Torchia in Johannesburg and Lynn Berry in Moscow contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/08/us-iran-nuclear-parchin-idUSKCN0QD0CK20150808

World | Sat Aug 8, 2015 1:06pm EDT
Related: World

Iran rejects accusations about military site as 'lies'

DUBAI

Iran's foreign minister said on Saturday that accusations about activity at its Parchin military site were "lies" spread by opponents of its landmark nuclear deal with world powers clinched last month.

A U.S. think-tank on Friday questioned Tehran's explanation that activity at its Parchin military site visible in satellite imagery was related to road work, and suggested it was a clean-up operation before IAEA inspectors arrive at the site.

"We said that the activities in Parchin are related to road construction," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was quoted as saying by the IRNA state news agency.

"They (opponents of the deal) have spread these lies before. Their goal is to damage the agreement," he added.

The Institute for Science and International Security in Washington was quick to deny on Twitter that it was one of the deal's opponents.


Related Coverage
› Iran's military chief comes out in support of nuclear deal

"We are neutral," the thinktank said.

Parchin is a site to which the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), requested access as part of the July 14 nuclear accord between Iran and six major powers, which include the United States.

Iran's parliament speaker was also dismissive of the think-tank's suggestion.

"This is an artificial dispute to distract the world," Ali Larijani was quoted on Saturday by the Fars news agency as saying. Larijani said Israel, unhappy with the deal, was trying to stop it from going ahead.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing U.S. lawmakers to oppose the nuclear agreement, which he considers a threat to his country's survival.

Some pro-Israel groups have spent millions of dollars on an advertising campaign to persuade members of the U.S. Congress to reject the deal in the autumn.


(Reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin; Editing by Gareth Jones and Raissa Kasolowsky)

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....PGM technology like JDAM does greatly shorten the list of targets that can't be dealt with by any other means than a nuke, though to be fair, the Japanese are still relying upon the US "nuclear umbrella" for protection. If they feel that's no longer in play, they could "break out" in literally months in terms of both weapons and delivery systems.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/re...ear-weapons-free-Japan-Nagasaki-memorial.html

Japan's Abe renews pledge of nuclear weapons free Japan at Nagasaki memorial

By Reuters

Published: 00:05 EST, 9 August 2015 | Updated: 00:06 EST, 9 August 2015

TOKYO, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sunday marked the 70th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki by renewing his commitment to a nuclear weapons free Japan, following criticism for not making the same pledge on the anniversary of the Hiroshima bombing last week.

"As the only nation in the world to have suffered a war-time nuclear attack, I have renewed my resolve to play a leading role in pursuing a world without nuclear weapons and maintain the three non-nuclear principles," Abe said in Nagasaki Peace Park.

The "three non-nuclear principles" are Japan's long-standing policy of not possessing or producing nuclear arms and not letting others bring them into the country.

Japan's defence minister triggered a new row over controversial security legislation on Wednesday when he said the bills under consideration by parliament would not rule out the military transporting the nuclear weapons of foreign forces.

Abe's cabinet adopted a resolution last year reinterpreting the pacifist constitution, drafted by Americans after World War Two, to let Japan exercise collective self-defence, or defend an ally under attack.

The unpopular bills have already passed the lower house and Abe's ruling bloc has a majority in the upper house as well. But surveys show a majority of voters are opposed to what would be a significant shift in Japan's defence policy.

Japanese media reported that Abe will not visit Tokyo's controversial Yasukuni shrine for the war dead on Aug. 15, which marks the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender to the Allies in World War Two.

Abe is a regular visitor to the shrine and his appearances often spark ire from Asian neighbours such as China and South Korea which came under Japanese occupation.

Even if the premier stays away from Yasukuni, he may still come under scrutiny if he omits an apology in a statement expected to be released later this week marking the 70th anniversary of Japan's defeat.

Abe has said the statement will express "remorse" for Japan's war-time actions but domestic media reported over the weekend that the word "apology" will not be included.

Abe's remarks are being closely watched by China and South Korea, where bitter memories of Japan's wartime occupation and colonisation run deep, and by Tokyo's close ally Washington. (Reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by Michael Perry)

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[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2015/08/08/64/0301000000AEN20150808002800320F.html

N. Korea threatens 'tough military counteraction' against S. Korea-U.S. joint drill

2015/08/08 18:51

SEOUL, Aug. 8 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Saturday threatened "tough military counteraction" against Seoul and Washington ahead of their upcoming joint military exercises scheduled for later this month.

"Ulchi Freedom Guardian will entail tough military counteraction of the army of the DPRK to firmly defend the dignity of the nation and sovereignty of the country," the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in a statement. DPRK is the acronym for the country's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The North said that the two allies' "efforts" to call the drills "transparent and defensive," and "regular and open," cannot "conceal the aggressive and reactionary nature of the drills as typical saber-rattling for making a pre-emptive nuclear strike at the DPRK."

The statement comes as ties between the two Koreas remain frigid amid Pyongyang's heightened criticism of Seoul and their plan to hold a joint celebration of Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule virtually fell through.

Seoul-Pyongyang ties have been further strained in recent years following the North's torpedoing of a South Korean warship and its shelling of a border island in 2010.

The two Koreas have not held high-level talks since February 2014.

mil@yna.co.kr

(END)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ir...ty-to-remove-the-ayatollahs-from-power-411352

Iran

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN \ 08/09/2015 05:19

Iranian ex-pat: Nuclear deal ruins opportunity to remove the ayatollahs from power

Saba Farzan hopes that one day, when the regime is changed, Iran can rekindle its natural commonalities with Israel.

‘We are used to just a few weeks of sunshine,” Saba Farzan, an Iranian journalist, remarks about the unusually hot weather in Berlin.

While Germans have been enjoying the parks and lakes, Farzan, who is executive director of the strategy think tank Foreign Policy Circle, has been consumed with the nuclear deal signed between the Islamic Republic and six world powers led by the United States. The deal, signed on July 14, has yet to be fully ratified in the US Congress, where it will face opposition, or in Tehran, but it is widely expected to be finalized.

“The deal means this regime will stay in power and that anti-Semitism will stay in power, and it is bad news for Iranian civil society,” Farzan says in a phone interview with the Magazine.

IN MANY countries threatened by the Iranian regime’s influence, there is consternation over the deal, no more so than in Israel. But for many like Farzan, the deal strikes a personal note. She was born in 1980; her family fled the country a few years later because of the extremism of the ayatollahs who came to power after the fall of the shah in 1979.

“I have lived in Germany since I was six years old. We fled Iran as political refugees and were accepted in Germany right away. We were granted asylum and started a new life.”

In those years Iran went through a series of upheavals.

The initial enthusiasm of the fall of the shah and hope for a pluralistic democracy were dashed. Then came the Iran-Iraq war, the crackdowns on civil society, the imposition of religious laws.

“It was like in Lebanon in the 1980s, a dark place,” recalls Farzan. “My dad was a sociologist. [He and my mother] were from Shi’a families.”

Her parents were secular and “ardent supporters of enlightenment in the Islamic religion” who endorsed “separation of religion and state.”

They found a home in Germany and integrated quickly.

“From the beginning we felt safe and secure and happy in Germany. It granted freedom and opportunity to us. This is something I am grateful for, every single day. It is why I became a journalist and was interested in foreign and security policy.”

For Iran observers like Farzan, the last decades in Iran have been a repetitive cycle. Over the 36 years since the fall of the shah, the country has meandered from more extreme conservatives like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was president from 2005 to 2013, to more “moderates” like Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani.

But Iranian civil society has changed. This generation, Farzan says, is the most nonideological, secular- oriented and educated since the revolution. However, this window of opportunity, as this generation comes of age, is being lost.

The Iran deal is a setback, she argues, and “the architecture behind the global Iran policy is an incredible willingness to appease the dictators and to just get over this conflict. It is essentially, as a friend of mine described the deal that was cut last week in Vienna, in fact a business deal.”

The concept is that the deal will allow billions of dollars to flow into the coffers of the Iranian leadership. That is supposed to give them less of an incentive to build a nuclear weapon. It is basically a bribe.

“That didn’t work in North Korea or elsewhere. Second, you cannot build a whole policy based on the hope that with enough money bad people will not do bad things. That is naïve and stupid. You can’t construct policy based on that hope. Nothing changed in the last 20 years [in Iran]. Except that, of course, the toughest sanctions regime this world ever saw was built up against Iran. We could have gotten different results if we had kept going with those sanctions.”

JOURNALISM WASN’T Farzan’s first calling. Initially, she sought to study literature and sociology in Bayreuth, Germany. While researching German-Jewish opera composer Kurt Weill, Farzan started to draw parallels between the artist who fled the Nazi regime and her own history. When the Green Revolution protests swept Iran in 2009, Farzan began to focus on Germany’s foreign policy with the Islamic Republic.

She started writing op-eds and participating in conferences, criticizing Germany’s emphasis on trade relations with Iran.

“As we speak today the German economy minister [Sigmar Gabriel] is in Iran. He is the first Western official after the deal who traveled to Iran.”

He is the first senior-level German government official to visit Tehran in 13 years. Some estimates claim that, due to the deal, Iran will be able to unlock more than $100 billion in trade after the sanctions are lifted. The Germans want to get on the financial bandwagon.

“You cannot structure foreign policy based on trade relations. That is not a strategic view to build the security of your country,” argues Farzan.

Even when sanctions began to be imposed on Iran in 2006, the UN resolutions were never strictly enforced, Farzan says.

“We indirectly allowed it to continue its work on nuclear weapons.”

Also, the sanctions did not have their desired effect, because Iran is not a rational actor.

“It doesn’t care about its own population. It cares about its proxy groups [such as Hezbollah]. It cares about the influence they have in Latin America. They [the Iranian leadership] care that the Obama administration surrenders to their demands. They are irrational from our point of view. It is a revolutionary ideology we are dealing with.”

She contrasts the Iranian mullahs with the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who renounced his nuclear weapons program in 2003. He understood the West’s threat, whereas the Iranian regime acts irrationally, in her view.

BUT THE question remains whether Iran’s nuclear weapons program is in fact a distraction for a larger regional policy of extending the influence and power of Iran in places like Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.

“Iran has used this [weapons program] in its own interest and advantage. I have no doubt that this is really a nuclear weapons program. If you look at the components and the ballistic missiles and enrichment, and the infrastructure, it only makes sense if you want to have a nuclear weapon,” says Farzan.

However, the mullahs play a double game, she says; they may lack the means to complete a nuclear weapon.

“They play with the idea of letting the region think they are much more advanced and ready to build up a nuclear weapon…. Maybe it is sort of enough for them to cause destabilization.”

She ascribes this partly to the very Persian identity of the Iranian nuclear program.

“They want to build it themselves; they don’t want to buy it from the North Koreans or Pakistanis.”

This is an important point because Pakistan’s nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan was confirmed in 2004 to have aided the development of nuclear programs in Libya and North Korea and offered his services to Iran. The first Pakistani nuclear weapons test took place in 1998 and was a complete surprise to the world.

The serious Iranian nuclear program should be seen in that light, because it stretches back to the 1990s when, it should be recalled, the international community was focused on Iraq’s nuclear program. Since the middle of the first decade of this century, Israeli and American intelligence estimates have repeatedly claimed Iran would have the bomb by now.

Farzan argues that the Iranians are more paranoid about their own internal problems than Western pressure to end the nuclear program.

“They studied us [the West] very closely. Look at the people in charge; many of them have been educated in the West – from Europe and the US – and they have studied us much better than we have studied them. We didn’t study them at all. That is why sometimes we believe what they say and are so slow in our responses.

The Iranians think strategically ahead and see where a vacuum exists that they can fill with their own ideology and proxies. They saw it coming that in Iraq things would fall apart.”

The picture of Iran is that, while it may have irrational elements, its strategic thinking is very cautious and pragmatic. For instance, it waited for the US to fail in Iraq in order to insert itself and wrap its tentacles around the Iraq government of Nouri al-Maliki over the last decade. The resulting sectarian chaos is very much in Iran’s interest.

But inside Iran, not all is well for the regime.

“The young generation and well educated are ready to connect to the outside. Their talents were not included into the economic way that Iran is going, or into political participation,” says Farzan. The money that the Iranian regime stands to earn from the deal will not trickle down to the educated classes.

“They have overstretched their capacities in the region.

Yes, they control four Arab capitals [Baghdad, Sana’a, Beirut and Damascus]. They have opened up so many battlefields for them that it is a question of logistics and the political price they pay in the region….

At the same time, it is questionable how long they can sustain this interference – not just in two, three or four places, but the next battlefields are around the corner, like in Jordan, Bahrain or other countries.”

In some ways the regime may be a paper tiger, exaggerating its prowess but in actuality quite weak. Farzan points to the fact that Iran’s military is undeveloped compared to Saudi Arabia, which has the latest American equipment.

“[Iran] is a paper tiger we are now feeding with cash and political acceptance.”

THE IRANIAN exile community, which numbers several million spread out through Europe, the United States and Canada, is very diverse in its approaches to what to do about the regime.

For instance, Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who was born in Tehran, argued last week that “no agreement is perfect, but at times the scale of the imperfection is so great that the judicious course is to reject the deal and renegotiate a more stringent one.”

Farzan says the approaches of those in the community are complex.

“Whether in the diaspora or in Iran, if you can gather five Iranians you [will] have seven opinions…. It is a diverse community. That is one thing that is hopeful for a democratic future in Iran. The negative aspect of it is that only very few Iranians can agree on something that they would want. Some say reform. Some say a revolution. One says an evolution. Some think it will take longer but with better results.”

She ascribes this to the long history of revolutions in Iran, stretching back to the early 20th century and the Persian Constitutional Revolution of 1906. One problem for Iranians who oppose the regime is that “they feel left alone by the Western world…. They are suffering under the dictatorship.”

When Barack Obama was elected he brought hope to Iranians that reform would come, not only because he was a Democrat who they thought would support progressive change but also because of his personal story.

“They really rose up in 2009 when Obama was president. They thought and expected that Barack Obama, as the first black American president, would support them, in memory of the civil rights movement, that he could relate to the suffering that they were going through. But it was the exact opposite. He was willing to throw them under the bus and consistently try and reach a deal with this dictatorship, fully knowing that the deal would cement the power that this regime has.”

But hope is not lost. Farzan believes there will be more protests and activism.

“As much as I hope and pray that Iran is on the verge of a revolution, a lot of the things that will happen in the immediate future depends on who will be the US president.”

That means that many are pegging their hope for the future on a future US administration scuttling the deal.

Farzan hopes that when Iran changes and the ayatollahs are removed, the country can rekindle its natural commonalities with Israel.

“This regime is standing in the way of these two countries becoming equal and true partners…. Jews and Persians have [many things] in common… not just because they are both ancient civilizations.”

From a strategic point of view, she argues that Iran is a much more logical partner for Israel than the Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia.

For the time being, she concludes, we must look at whatever silver linings we can find in light of the deal and continue to support Iranian civil society

This story first appeared in the Jerusalem Post Magazine.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150809/as--afghanistan-8d63b2a859.html

Bomb kills 22 members of criminal groups in Afghanistan

Aug 9, 2:48 AM (ET)

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — A bombing in Afghanistan's northern Kunduz province has killed 22 members of illegal armed groups, including four leaders, an Afghan official said Sunday.

Abdul Wadood Wahidi, spokesman for the provincial governor, said the bombing late Saturday targeted a meeting of criminal groups that in the past have clashed with both national security forces and Taliban insurgents. He said seven others were wounded by the blast in Khan Abad district.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed the attack.

The Taliban have stepped up attacks across the country since U.S. and NATO forces shifted from a combat to a support and training role at the end of last year.

In the northern Badakhshan province, Taliban insurgents hanged a 27-year-old mother of three after accusing her of having extramarital sex, said Nawid Frotan, spokesman for the provincial governor. Frotan said she was hanged from a tree before a public gathering early Saturday.

In a separate incident, Taliban insurgents beheaded two local policemen and a civilian in Badakhshan on Saturday. The insurgents accused the three of spying, Frotan said.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.france24.com/en/20150809-lavrov-slams-unfounded-claims-syria-chemical-weapons

09 August 2015 - 15H45

Lavrov slams 'unfounded claims' of Syria chemical weapons

MOSCOW (AFP) -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday warned against what he called unfounded claims that Syria has chemical weapons, as the United Nations Security Council investigates deadly chlorine gas attacks.

His comments came after Russia on Friday backed the setting up of a UN Security Council panel to identify who is behind the chlorine attacks, which the West blames on the Damascus regime.

Lavrov said the operation to remove chemical weapons from Syria was successful, and that all claims to the contrary should be checked.

"This problem was successfully resolved," he said of Syria's chemical weapons stocks in a statement.

Syria in 2013 had agreed to turn over its chemical arsenal and disable production sites after the United States threatened military action over a sarin attack outside Damascus.

A total of 1,300 metric tonnes of chemical weapons have been removed from Syria, with the majority being destroyed aboard the US Navy ship MV Cape Ray.

"Sometimes publications come out that there could be undeclared chemical weapons in Syria. This is all being checked, here we must avoid unfounded accusations," Lavrov said Sunday.

"We have every basis to consider that Syria will continue cooperating closely."

The United States, Britain and France have repeatedly accused President Bashar al-Assad's forces of carrying out chlorine gas attacks with barrel bombs dropped from helicopters.

Russia maintains there is no solid proof that Damascus is behind the attacks.

Russia's top diplomat reiterated Russia's backing for embattled Assad, arguing that the US-led coalition should overcome its "persistent rejection" of cooperation with the Assad regime in the fight with the Islamic State (IS) group.

"We still think this objective is achievable," he said.

Lavrov on Tuesday is set to meet his Saudi counterpart Adel al-Jubeir in Moscow to discuss the situation in Syria and Yemen and ways to combat IS.

Lavrov stressed that international powers should unite against IS, calling it a "common enemy."

He referred to a map drawn up by IS showing its plan to control the sites of Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia which are sacred to Muslims.

"Members of this terrorist organisation have promised to blow up Muslim sacred sites because they consider them to be a reflection of 'incorrect' Islam. This is a terrible organisation," he said.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Conflict News ‏@rConflictNews 31m31 minutes ago

Clashes at Belfast Republican Parade, watercannon deployed - RT Live: http://www.rt.com/on-air/watercannons-republican-parade-police …

(as of right now, it is still live)

http://www.rt.com/on-air/watercannons-republican-parade-police/

Police deployed watercannons as a Republican parade in Belfast, attended by around 5,000 people, was marred by clashes with police.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150809/lt-argentina-primary-elections-8aba09c7bf.html

Argentines vote in presidential, congressional primaries

Aug 9, 11:59 AM (ET)
By PETER PRENGAMAN

(AP) A woman casts her vote during open primary elections for presidential candidates in...
Full Image

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Millions of voters in Argentina braved rains on Sunday to weigh in on what the South American nation should look like after the departure of President Cristina Fernandez, who along with her late husband guided the country for 12 years with social welfare policies aimed at the poor while often employing combative rhetoric and protectionist policies with other nations.

Voters were casting ballots in open primaries for presidential candidates who have all but sealed the nominations in their respective parties, making the exercise essentially a giant national poll ahead of the Oct. 25 elections.

The nation known for its soccer players, tango dancing and choice beef is struggling with myriad economic problems. Independent analysts put inflation at over 30 percent and the Argentine peso has slid sharply against the American dollar in recent months. A long-standing dispute with U.S. hedge funds that Fernandez calls "vultures" has kept foreign investors away.

Polls show voters deeply divided about how, and who, is best to tackle those issues.

(AP) Outgoing mayor of Buenos Aires and presidential candidate Mauricio Macri, center,...
Full Image

"We need improvements in every area of life," said Hector Ramirez, a 65-year-old doorman, who said he was still undecided as he waited in line to vote at an elementary school. "Argentina is a glorious country with abundant resources. The problem has always been who is governing."

The primaries will help the top candidates judge how their campaigns are faring ahead of the general elections — in particular how closely to align their platforms to the social welfare policies of Fernandez's political movement, known as Kirchnerismo.

Daniel Scioli, the governor of the Buenos Aires province and a former vice president, is Fernandez's successor candidate. He has praised her policies but also promised to make reforms where necessary and be more amicable in dealings with other countries.

Mauricio Macri, the former mayor of Buenos Aires and ex-president of the popular Boca Junior soccer club, is the top opposition candidate. He has promised to make the country more business friendly and immediately lift all restrictions on citizens' ability to buy U.S. dollars — a promise the government and some economists say isn't realistic.

Meanwhile, Sergio Massa, who has held cabinet and elective posts and broke with Fernandez, is running on his own ticket and promises to jail corrupt politicians. His bid is a longshot, though he has enough support to be a spoiler or kingmaker in the general election.

(AP) In this Dec. 10, 2014, file photo, Buenos Aires governor Daniel Scioli smiles...
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Scioli has led the pack in the polls for several months, and was up by as many as 10 points over Macri in the most recent surveys.

Fernandez is constitutionally barred from running for a third term. Fernandez's late husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, was elected in 2003 and served one term before she ran. The couple is widely credited with lifting Argentina after one of its worst moments, a $100 billion default in late 2001 that forced a run on the banks and wiped out the savings of many citizens.

But detractors say Fernandez's policies, which include gas and transportation subsidies, along with perks for single mothers and periodic pension increases, have contributed to heavy inflation. There is also fatigue with her brash rhetoric aimed at political opponents and other countries.

Supporters say Fernandez's strong personality commands respect internationally and that her social welfare spending is necessary to address vast inequalities at home.

"It's like if somebody on the street asks you for a few coins to eat," said Maria de las Mercedes, a 69-year-old lawyer who said she voted for Scioli and wants to see the social welfare policies continue. "Are you not going to give it to them?"

(AP) A woman looks for her name in the voting lists during the open primary elections for...
Full Image

Candidates also are vying for several governor and congressional slots. Only candidates with at least 1.5 percent of the vote in their respective races can continue to the general elections, effectively eliminating many minority party candidates.

If Macri wins the primary or is close to Scioli, a runoff in November will be more likely. That would benefit Macri, who would likely pick up many opposition and independent votes.

"For the first time since 2003, we are going to have elections with two candidates who have a good chance of winning," said Patricio Giusto, director of Political Diagnostic, an Argentine think tank.

Voting is mandatory, though there are several exceptions and most people who skip the exercise at most pay a small fine.

------__

AP video journalist Paul Byrne contributed to this report.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Beyond The Levant retweeted
Gregor Peter ‏@L0gg0l 21m21 minutes ago

IRAQI SECURTIY FORCES PREVENT VICE PRESIDENT MALIKI FROM LEAVING COUNTRY AT BAGHDAD AIRPORT, BAGHDADIYA TV SAYS

 

[Housecarl]

Beyond The Levant retweeted
Gregor Peter ‏@L0gg0l 21m21 minutes ago

IRAQI SECURTIY FORCES PREVENT VICE PRESIDENT MALIKI FROM LEAVING COUNTRY AT BAGHDAD AIRPORT, BAGHDADIYA TV SAYS

Now this is looking like a power play a la Beijing.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/chinas-maritime-militia-upends-rules-on-naval-warfare/

China’s Maritime Militia Upends Rules on Naval Warfare

The use of fishing vessels as a maritime militia has profound legal implications.

By James Kraska
August 10, 2015

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China operates a network of fishing vessels organized into a maritime militia with paramilitary roles in peacetime and during armed conflict. The maritime militia forms an irregular naval force that provides the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) with an inexpensive force multiplier, raising operational, legal and political challenges for any opponent. The sheer size and scope of the vast network of China’s maritime militia complicates the battlespace, degrades any opponent’s decision-making process and exposes adversaries to political dilemmas that will make them more cautious to act against China during a maritime crisis or naval war. The legal implications are no less profound.

The maritime militia erases the longstanding distinction between warships and civilian ships in the law of naval warfare, which is analyzed in depth in a recent Naval War College study, The Law of Naval Warfare and China’s Maritime Militia. The law of naval warfare protects coastal fishing vessels from capture or attack during armed conflict. Although warships may engage civilian fishing vessels that assist enemy forces, it may be virtually impossible to distinguish between legitimate craft and those that are integrated into the PLAN as an auxiliary naval force. Regardless of whether the maritime militia plays a decisive combat role, its presence in the theater of war confronts opponents with vexing legal and operational dilemmas.

As the U.S. Supreme Court case of the Paquete Habana in January 1900 illustrates, the issue of employing fishing vessels during armed conflict is not necessarily new. After the U.S. Navy captured Cuban fishing craft the Paquete Habana and the Lola during the Spanish-American War, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered their release. The court held that “By ancient usage among civilized nations, beginning centuries ago, and gradually ripening into a rule of international law, coast fishing vessels, pursuing their vocation of catching and bringing in fresh fish, have been recognized as exempt, with their cargoes and crews, from capture as prize of war.”

During the war in Indo-China, the U.S. Seventh Fleet was bedeviled by fishing vessels integrated into the enemy order of battle. One of the most remarkable occasions occurred in the immediate ramp up to major U.S. combat involvement in the war. In September 1964, North Vietnam employed fishing vessels to report the position of U.S. warships in the Gulf of Tonkin. A declassified National Security Agency study notes that a message was sent from “an unidentified vessel to an unidentified shore based shipping net control station” at the same time that the USS Maddox passed two fishing vessels at a distance of two thousand yards. Soon thereafter Maddox was engaged by three North Vietnamese gunboats. The ensuing “Gulf of Tonkin Incident” was the basis for a joint resolution of Congress that authorized American entry into the Vietnam War. Throughout the war, fishing vessels ferried supplies to the North Vietnamese Army along the coast. These “Waterborne Logistics Craft” (prounounced “wçblĭks”) were a continuous challenge for U.S. naval forces.

Using fishing vessels as naval auxiliaries violates the principle of distinction – a key tenet of international humanitarian law (IHL), which prescribes that civilians and civilian objects should be protected from armed attack. The entire purpose of the principle of distinction is to protect civilians and ameliorate the effects upon them of warfare. The central purpose of the principle of distinction is to ameliorate the effects of warfare upon civilians, but China’s maritime militia blurs beyond recognition the line between fishing vessels and naval functions.

With 200,000 vessels, China operates the largest fishing fleet in the world, and its commercial industry employs 14 million people – 25 percent of the world’s total. This massive enterprise operates in conjunction with the armed forces to promote Beijing’s strategic objectives in the South China Sea and East China Sea. The militia, for example, were involved in the 1974 invasion of the Paracel Islands, as well as impeding freedom of navigation of U.S. military survey ships. The maritime militia also provides logistics support to Chinese warships. In May 2008, for example, militia fishing craft transferred ammunition and fuel to two warships near Zhejiang Province.

Fishermen are assigned to collectives or attached to civilian companies and receive military training and political education in order to mobilize and promote China’s interests in the oceans. The fishing vessels of the militia are equipped with advanced electronics, including communications systems and radar that supplement the PLAN force structure and enhance interoperability with other agencies, such as the China Coast Guard. Many boats are equipped with satellite navigation and can track and relay vessel positions, and gather and report maritime intelligence.

The fleet support missions being undertaken by China’s maritime militia may make fishing vessels lawful targets during armed conflict, with potentially tragic consequences for legitimate fishermen from China and nearby states. This is an example of China’s “legal warfare,” which is the perversion of legal concepts or processes to counter an opponent. Unlike the Philippines’ arbitration case over China’s dashed line, which is not “legal warfare” because it simply seeks a legal determination based on the rule of law, the maritime militia exploit seams in the law and thereby place at risk the very civilians that the law is made to protect.

The customary rule of distinction places great pressure on the United States and its allies to give wide effect to the inviolable status of China’s fishing vessels. Distinguishing between legitimate fishing vessels and those militia boats supporting the PLAN will be virtually impossible because of the large number of vessels, the vast expanse of ocean space, and the lack of sensors on the U.S. side. Any militia trawlers destroyed in naval combat will be the centerpiece of political and public diplomacy efforts by China to undermine enemy resolve. Even non-kinetic responses, such as electronic jamming of fishing vessel transmissions, will be incorporated into China’s propaganda campaign to generate sympathy, particularly among other states in East Asia.

As a force multiplier, the maritime militia poses an operational challenge that requires an expansion in U.S. and allied force structure, including warships, submarines and, especially, unmanned drones and unmanned subsurface vehicles, to manage the threat. As Beijing further integrates the maritime militia into its naval force structure, the line between civilian fishing ships and military vessels erodes.

James Kraska is professor and research director in the Stockton Center for the Study of International Law, U.S. Naval War College, and author of Maritime Power and Law of the Sea and International Maritime Security Law.

 

[Housecarl]

If you thought they couldn't screw stuff up any more than they have check this out.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/the-taiwan-problem-if-it-aint-broke-dont-fix-it/

The Taiwan Problem: If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It

A grand bargain between the U.S. and China over Taiwan seems an ill-conceived idea.

By Noah Lingwall
August 08, 2015

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The recent debate surrounding Taiwan’s role in a possible U.S.-China “grand bargain” reveals that the controversy surrounding Taiwan’s status as a nation is alive and well in 2015. Led by George Washington University professor Charles L. Glaser and his recent article in International Security, a cadre of political scientists, policy analysts, and pundits have amplified their calls for a groundbreaking deal in which the United States would abandon Taiwan to China in exchange for weighty Chinese concessions. Specifically, Glaser envisions a deal in which China vows greater docility in dealing with territorial disputes and accepts U.S. regional hegemony in exchange for the United States’ release of Taiwan.

Glaser’s argument rests upon three key assumptions: First, he assumes that Taiwan acts as an impediment to U.S.-China relations. Second, he assumes that Taiwan can serve as a “bargaining chip” in a high-stakes U.S. gamble. Lastly, Glaser makes the assumption that the successful negotiation of a grand bargain would induce steadfast Chinese cooperation on key regional security issues. Unfortunately, these assumptions are patently false. By debunking the myth of the “grand bargain,” it becomes clear that Washington’s abandonment of Taiwan would not only spell the end of a delicate China-Taiwan equilibrium, it would also threaten the stability of the entire East Asian security environment.

Myth #1: Taiwan Is an Obstacle to Better U.S.-China Relations

Glaser and others who espouse the benefits of a U.S.-China grand bargain allege that the unresolved question of Taiwanese independence has impeded healthy U.S.-China relations. To test this assertion, it is important to consider the reality of recent China-Taiwan interactions.

The issues of Taiwan’s disputed status and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan remain perhaps the most outstanding problems between the United States and China. Still, even these issues no longer impede U.S.-China relations. The question of Taiwanese independence emerged in the 1990s with the nation’s transition to democracy. As the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) gained control over Taiwan in subsequent elections, then-President Chen Shui-bian amplified Taiwan’s calls for independence. The 2005 passage of the Anti-Secession Law* in China served as a sharp response to Taiwan’s ambitions for independence. Meanwhile, former President George W. Bush clarified the U.S. position of “strategic ambiguity” over the Taiwan issue with a powerful proclamation: The United States would not want to see Taiwan provoke China, but the United States would help defend Taiwan if China were to lose its patience with Taiwan and use force to achieve unification with the island. This statement made it clear that the United States did not support either formal Taiwanese independence or forceful unification. This policy position effectively stabilized the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Since then, no further attempts have been made to upend the balance between China and Taiwan.

Nor should U.S. arms sales to Taiwan be regarded as a serious barrier to U.S.-China relations. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 stipulates that the United States will provide Taiwan with arms of a defense nature. Although China often uses the United States’ periodic decision to sell arms to Taiwan as a political ploy to suspend the Chinese military’s contact with the United States and stir up nationalistic sentiments, the issue needs to be put into perspective. While all arms are technically offensive in nature, the quantity and quality of the weapons Taiwan receives from the United States do little Taiwan’s offensive capabilities. For example, Taiwan purchases short-range fighter jets, air defense systems, and older-generation weapons.

In addition, U.S. authorization to sell arms to Taiwan differs from the actual delivery of weapon systems. The United States has declined to provide the quality of weapons that Taiwan has requested from time to time. Moreover, Taiwan’s legislature has often failed to appropriate the funds necessary to purchase the quantity of weapons requested.

Finally, China’s periodic suspensions of its military contacts with the United States have failed to inflict significant damage on U.S.-China relations and relations are regularly quietly restored once the political storm subsides. Beijing understands that Taiwan’s weaponry does not pose a serious threat to mainland China’s military. Bearing this in mind, it seems evident that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan act as mere political pretense for China’s antagonistic behavior and are not serious obstacles.

In fact, the past several decades have produced a relatively stable economic and political equilibrium between China and Taiwan. Most recently, the 2008 election of President Ma Ying-jeou has ushered in an era of unprecedented China-Taiwan cooperation. Economic integration, highlighted by a 2010 bilateral trade agreement, has inextricably linked Beijing and Taipei. In fact, the health of Taiwan’s economy relies on revenue from Chinese trade. According to 2014 Chinese statistics, trade volume between the two nations totaled more than 200 billion dollars. Taiwan also exports most of its goods to China and enjoys a huge trade surplus. Yearly trends indicate that the economic bonds between the two nations are getting even stronger: From 2014 to 2015, trade between the two nations increased 16.7 per cent.

Myth #2: Taiwan Can Serve as a Bargaining Chip

The effectiveness of a bargaining chip is predicated on whether or not the other party fears losing control of that bargaining chip. From China’s point of view, its claim over Taiwan is indisputable. So why would China make concessions over a bargaining chip it believes it already owns? China already has a powerful economic hold over Taiwan. In addition to economic interdependence, the past several years have also witnessed an increase in direct flights and sea transportation between the two nations. Businesspeople commonly make one-day trips across the Taiwan Strait. An effective unification is already well underway in the economic realm.

In addition, the Taiwanese prefer the status quo of de facto, but not de jure independence. Repeated opinion polls indicate that while more Taiwanese favor independence over unification, a majority of Taiwan’s people prefer to maintain the status quo.

Meanwhile, the threat of Chinese military force acts to dissuade Taiwan from attempting to break away from the mainland. As the Taiwanese gaze across the strait, they are greeted by a massive arsenal of 1,600 ground-to-ground missiles. Chinese anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities act as a potential deterrent to U.S. involvement in the event of an armed conflict between China and Taiwan. This military mismatch between the two sides serves as a potent deterrence to Taiwan attempting a hasty move for independence or even using the threat as a bargaining chip with the Chinese. China is also an increasing presence in Taiwan’s political system by mobilizing support for China-friendly politicians and making extensive donations to pro-China political actors. All in all, the notion of Taiwan as a “bargaining chip” fails to take into account China’s existing influence over Taiwan and complicates the possibility of a grand bargain.

Myth #3: A “Grand Bargain” Equals “Grand Concessions”

While a U.S.-China grand bargain is heralded as an ideal tactic to secure crucial U.S. interests, one must evaluate the feasibility of the United States’ demands. First, a grand bargain requires China to accept U.S. military bases and alliances in the Asia-Pacific. China’s recent move toward a more “assertive diplomacy” contrasts sharply with the United States’ ambitions to retain its regional power. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call for a “new type of great power relations” presaged China’s turn toward greater assertiveness on the world stage. The proposal, presented to U.S. President Barack Obama in June 2013, represents China’s first major attempt to set the agenda in U.S.-China relations, reversing China’s historical trend of bowing to U.S. interests and marking a key shift in U.S.-China relations.

Tensions between the United States and China over China’s artificial island construction in the South China Sea indicate that China is loath to accept U.S. interference in the region. Throughout the past several months, U.S. surveillance planes and warships have patrolled the hotly contested South China Sea in an effort to protect freedom of navigation. Verbal exchanges between the two nations have stoked the conflict’s flames. U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter responded to China’s territorial claims by calling for an “immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation by any claimant.” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying responded by reasserting her nation’s rightful claim to disputed territories and condemning U.S. actions as “provocations and instigations.” Hua’s sharp rebuke of U.S. interference in the Asia-Pacific supports China’s commitment to more aggressive diplomacy. These types of interactions suggest that a U.S.-China “grand bargain” could falter on the basis of China’s distaste for U.S. hegemony.

Even if China is willing to accept (in its view) an “invasive” U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific in the present, there is no mechanism to ensure that China does not default on agreements in the future. China’s military power projection capabilities are growing, and Chinese leaders may see fit to act in a fashion commensurate with their nation’s growing abilities. Therefore, the U.S. cannot expect a credible Chinese commitment to accept U.S. regional hegemony in exchange for control of Taiwan.

The second condition of a U.S.-China “grand bargain” appears equally insurmountable. Charles Glaser asserts that China would promise to resolve regional land disputes through more peaceful means if the United States were to cede control of Taiwan. As is the case with acceptance of U.S. regional hegemony, this provision of the grand bargain would be difficult to enforce. China currently finds itself besieged by a litany of competing land claims from Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and other Asian nations. Based on China’s recent aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and President Xi Jinping’s “assertive diplomacy” manifesto, one can hardly expect that China will capitulate to its smaller, weaker neighbors. Doing so would both undermine its growing reputation as a maritime power and undercut its goal to become an established world power.

As China looks to enhance its international prestige, it is hard to believe that its leaders would tolerate the land claims of competing Asian nations. Also, it takes two parties to come to an agreement, so it is not up to China alone to guarantee the peaceful resolution of land disputes. The other disputants involved would have to make the same pledge to avoid territorial conflicts. Moreover, China’s rising national power may induce its leaders to initiate unpredictable, aggressive strategies in the future. The United States cannot orchestrate a grand bargain based on promised concessions.

No Panacea

The concept of a U.S.-China grand bargain offers a creative attempt at a strategy to resolve some of the most intractable issues hindering improved cooperation between the two countries. Even if implemented, this proposed strategy would not serve as a panacea to all the issues facing the United States and China. Any bargain would face serious pitfalls that would cast doubt over the longevity of its provisions. In light of the contentious land disputes in the South China Sea and continuing tension over the unresolved question of Taiwan, an idealistic resolution might seem a productive step forward.

The Taiwan problem is deeply entrenched within China and Taiwan’s political culture and it cannot be solved in one fell swoop. A grand bargain is an encouraging, yet illusive notion. The framework of a grand bargain might serve as a useful blueprint for future cooperation, but the current status quo already acts as a positive foundation for future China-Taiwan relations and should remain in place.

As Taiwan’s March 2016 presidential election rapidly approaches, the concept of a grand bargain appears particularly ill-conceived. In all likelihood, neither party’s candidate will risk alienating public support by pushing a radical plan for unification or separation. Increased economic cooperation will continue to maintain the equilibrium between the two nations and could even mitigate the most contentious issues that bedevil U.S.-China and China-Taiwan relations. While it is possible that these issues may pose a future threat, the current Taiwan problem is not broken, and there is no need to fix it.

Noah Lingwall is a student at the Schreyer Honors College of the Pennsylvania State University and an intern at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Army War College, the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.

*Corrected spelling of law.

 

[Housecarl]

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...mic-State-(ISIS)-thread&p=5728104#post5728104

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...mic-State-(ISIS)-thread&p=5728642#post5728642

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150810/eu--turkey-attack-dbee7cadf6.html

Day of violence in Istanbul leaves at least 3 dead

Aug 10, 8:53 AM (ET)
By LEFTERIS PITARAKIS and SUZAN FRASER

(AP) A masked Turkish police officer secures a road leading to the U.S. Consulate...
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ISTANBUL (AP) — Two women opened fire at the heavily protected U.S. Consulate in Istanbul Monday, while assailants exploded a car bomb at a police station then fired on police inspecting the scene, in a day of heavy violence in Turkey's largest city.

In the southeast of the country a roadside bomb killed four police, and Kurdish rebels attacked a helicopter, killing a conscript. There has been a recent sharp spike in violence between Turkey's security forces and rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

One of the consulate attackers was later captured injured in a nearby building and hospitalized. The far-left Revolutionary People's Liberation Army-Front, or DHKP-C, identified her as 51-year-old Hatice Asik, and said she was a member of the group, though it did not directly claim responsibility for the attack. The DHKP-C and the PKK both have Marxist origins and have cooperated in the past.

The second woman was still being hunted. There were no other casualties.

(AP) A woman walks past an armed Turkish police officer securing a road leading to the...
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Hours earlier, an overnight bomb attack at a police station in Istanbul injured three policemen and seven civilians and caused a fire that collapsed part of the three-story building. Unknown assailants later fired on police inspecting the scene of the explosion, sparking another gunfight with police that killed a member of the inspection team and two assailants. There was no immediate responsibility claim for that attack.

Turkey last month carried out a major security sweep, detaining some 1,300 people suspected of links to banned organizations, including the PKK, the DHKP-C and extremists of the Islamic State group.

Also Monday, Kurdish rebels in the southeastern province of Sirnak fired at a helicopter carrying conscripts who either had finished their term of duty or were taking leave, killing one of them and injuring another, the military said. Four police were also killed in Sirnak province when their armored vehicle was attacked with a roadside bomb, the Dogan news agency reported.

The DHKP-C, which has claimed responsibility for assassinations and bombings since the 1970s, has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States. It claimed responsibility for a 2013 suicide attack on the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, which killed a Turkish security guard.

In a statement posted on its website the group described the consulate attacker, Asik, as a "revolutionary" fighting American oppression and vowed to maintain its struggle until Turkey is "cleared" of all U.S. bases.

(AP) Turkish police officers run for cover during a gunfight near the site of an...
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The U.S. Embassy said U.S. officials were working with Turkish authorities to investigate the incident. The consulate would remain closed to the public until further notice, it said.

Police wearing flak jackets and holding machine guns blocked off streets leading to the consulate. The building, which is surrounded by fortified walls, was intact and its flag was flying.

Other recent attacks by the DHKP-C have included the headquarters of a political party and the Turkish Ministry of Justice. The group, which wants to set up a socialist state in Turkey, advocates a Marxist-Leninist ideology and opposes the U.S. and Turkish governments, as well as NATO.

In 2008, an attack blamed on al-Qaida-affiliated militants outside the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul left three assailants and three policemen dead.

---

(An earlier version said seven policemen — instead of seven civilians — were injured in the bomb attack)

---

Fraser reported from Ankara.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150810/as--koreas-tension-cfbfb259f6.html

Seoul restarts propaganda broadcasts to N. Korea over mines

Aug 10, 5:47 AM (ET)
By HYUNG-JIN KIM

(AP) In this Aug. 9, 2015, photo provided by the Defense Ministry, a South Korean army...
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SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea restarted propaganda broadcasts across the border with rival North Korea on Monday for the first time in 11 years in retaliation for the North allegedly planting land mines last week that maimed two South Korean soldiers.

The anti-North Korean broadcasts over loudspeakers aimed across the world's most heavily armed border are sure to worsen already terrible ties between the Koreas and infuriate the North, which is extremely sensitive to any outside criticism of the authoritarian leadership of Kim Jong Un.

South Korea's military earlier Monday promised unspecified "searing" consequences for the mine blasts last week in the Seoul-controlled southern part of the Demilitarized Zone that has bisected the Korean Peninsula since the end of fighting in the Korean War in 1953. South Korean officials said they may take additional punitive measures depending on how North Korea reacts. It was unclear how long the broadcasts will continue.

The U.S.-led U.N. Command conducted an investigation that blamed North Korea for the mines. It condemned what it called violations of the armistice that ended fighting in the war, which still technically continues because the participants have never signed a peace treaty.

(AP) South Korean protesters shout slogans during a rally demanding peace and...
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The soldiers were on a routine patrol near a wire fence in the southern side of the border when the explosions happened. One of the soldiers lost both legs, while the other lost one leg.

In 2004, the two Koreas stopped the decadeslong practice of propaganda warfare along the border to reduce tension. The practice had included loudspeaker and radio broadcasts, billboards and leaflets.

In 2010, South Korea restarted radio broadcasts and restored 11 loudspeakers as part of punitive measures taken after a warship sinking blamed on North Korea that killed 46 South Korean sailors earlier that year. But South Korea didn't go ahead with plans to resume loudspeaker broadcasts at the time.

South Korea conducted loudspeaker broadcasts on Monday in the western and center portions of the border, said Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok. He said the broadcasts emphasized that the mine explosions were a provocation by the North.

South Korean defense officials earlier said the military planned to use two of the 11 restored loudspeakers. In the past, propaganda broadcasts typically blared messages about alleged North Korean government mismanagement, human rights conditions, the superiority of South Korean-style democracy as well as world news and weather forecasts.

(AP) In this Aug. 9, 2015, photo provided by the Defense Ministry, an unidentified South...
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More than a million mines are believed to be buried inside the DMZ, and North Korean mines have occasionally washed down a swollen river into the South, killing or injuring civilians. But North Korean soldiers crossing the border and planting mines is highly unusual.

The explosions come amid continuing bad feelings between the rival Koreas over the establishment of a U.N. office in Seoul tasked with investigating the North's human rights record. North Korea also refuses to release several South Koreans it has detained. Things are expected to get worse next week when Seoul and Washington launch annual summertime military drills, which the allies say are routine but North Korea calls an invasion rehearsal.

Investigations by South Korea and the American-led U.N. Command showed that splinters from the explosions were from wood box mines used by North Korea, according to South Korea's Defense Ministry.

South Korean officials say there's no chance that old mines had dislodged and drifted to the South because of rain or shifting soil. The area where the soldiers were patrolling is on higher ground than the places where North Korean mines have been previously planted, meaning the recent mines must have been purposely laid there by the North, chief South Korean investigator Ahn Young-ho told reporters.

A senior South Korean military officer, Ku Hongmo, said Seoul believes North Korean soldiers secretly crossed the border and laid mines between July 23 and Aug. 3, the day before the three mines exploded. But he said surveillance cameras in the area did not detect any suspicious North Korean activities, apparently because of bad weather and forest cover.

A border line runs through the middle of the 4-kilometer (2.5-mile) -wide) DMZ, which is jointly overseen by the U.N. Command and North Korea. South Korean troops patrol the southern part of the buffer zone.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.ozy.com/pov/cheating-on-nukes-in-north-korea/62565

Cheating on Nukes in North Korea

By John McLaughlin
AUG 09, 2015

The author, deputy director and acting director of the CIA from 2000–2004, teaches at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

President Obama is pulling out the stops to defend last month’s Iran nukes deal, and there are good reasons to hope the bargain works out. But it’d be folly to deny the risks. Indeed, denial is futile, what with a cautionary example staring us right in the face.

That cautionary example is, of course, North Korea. The United States went down this road with the “Hermit Kingdom” in 1994, with the negotiation of the so-called Agreed Framework. Under its terms, North Korea was supposed to dismantle its nuclear facilities — then capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium — and receive, in return, help building less advanced reactors for peaceful purposes, as well as shipments of heavy fuel oil to offset energy shortages. But in 2002, U.S. intelligence discovered that the North was cheating — buying materials apparently intended for uranium enrichment. After years of contentious negotiations, North Korea finally fessed up in 2010.

Over the past decade, North Korea has carried out three nuclear tests and now has about 10 bombs. Within five years it could have another 10, according to the U.S.-Korea Institute at my university. The North also has a robust missile program, with a fleet of short- and medium-range missiles, and claims it could mount a nuclear warhead on one. The head of the U.S. Northern Command has publicly agreed. Since the 1990s, North Korea has been working on a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM); given its successful launch of a space satellite with a large, three-stage rocket in 2012, it appears just short of that goal.

In the wake of the Iran agreement, North Korea is now coming under U.S. and international pressure to return to the bargaining table, which it abandoned in 2008 after years of what were called “six-party talks” (the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea). But the North’s ambassadors in China and Russia slammed the door on a renewal just last week.

Why is North Korea so adamantly against talks, and what are the prospects for changing that? The primary motive is simple: regime survival. Long squeezed by international sanctions and regarded as the globe’s most repressive political system, North Korea revolves around a cult of personality centered on the Kim dynasty. The leadership has long seen nuclear weapons as the key to survival, often citing Libya as its own cautionary example. Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi surrendered his nuclear program in 2004 and was killed in 2011, as his regime collapsed during Libya’s violent version of the so-called Arab Spring.

The Kim dynasty and the system around it are not the only ones interested in its survival. In South Korea and China, there is constant fear that the North Korean regime will simply collapse under greatly increased economic and other pressures. That would trigger massive refugee flows to the north into China and south onto the peninsula. Sorting this out — essentially uniting the two Koreas — would be a huge project that in cost and complexity would dwarf the union of the two Germanys in the 1990s.

The prospect for movement toward talks is bleak but not hopeless. Even if it had no intention to give up its nuclear weapons, the North might be lured into talks if it thought it could use them as a stalling mechanism, while angling for food and economic assistance. It has done so in the past. For others, the benefit would be the prospect of slowing the North’s nuclear progress and tying it up at the bargaining table, instead of letting it progress, full steam ahead. This strategy, such as it is, boils down to buying time, and it’s not a terrible one. Churchill’s theory was that “to jaw-jaw is better than to war-war.”

The key to any movement sits with China. It is, far and away, the country with the most economic and political leverage over the Hermit Kingdom, by virtue of supplying 90 percent of its energy and most of its food aid. China surely wants to avoid the chaos of a North Korean collapse, or Pyongyang’s reckless use of its nuclear or missile capability. But the wild card is the North’s new ruler, 30-year-old Kim Jong Un. He is still erratically consolidating his power through purges and executions, and he is not, it seems, as close to Beijing as his father, Kim Jong Il, had been.

The bottom line? Leverage on North Korea is more limited than in the past, in part because it is so dramatically different from Iran: much farther along the nuclear path, less engaged with the world outside and with not a speck of democracy (compared to Iran’s controlled but reasonably fair elections that often surprise the regime). As often in hard times, we are probably best advised to fall back on the wisdom of the founders, in this case Benjamin Franklin’s adage that “persistence is the secret to success.” That’s not much, but with North Korea, it’s better than nothing.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150810/as--afghanistan-9dabcd704c.html

Afghan president calls on Pakistan to rein in Taliban

Aug 10, 3:37 PM (ET)
By RAHIM FAIEZ and LYNNE O'DONNELL

(AP) Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, left, arrives for a press conference at presidential...
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KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The Afghan president called on Pakistan on Monday to crack down on the Taliban after a suicide car bombing earlier in the day near Kabul's international airport killed five people, the latest in a wave of deadly attacks in the capital.

In a televised address, Ashraf Ghani also blamed neighboring Pakistan for what he described as Islamabad's support to the insurgents whose war against Kabul is now nearing its 14th year, and said he was sending a delegation to Islamabad later this week to demand a stop to this.

"We know they have sanctuaries there, we know they are active there," Ghani said, referring to Taliban leaders living in Pakistan. "We need all those activities to be stopped."

Since assuming office a year ago, Ghani has pursued closer relations with Pakistan, which wields influence over the insurgent group, hoping that it could use that influence to bring the Taliban into peace negotiations.

(AP) Afghan security forces inspect the site of an attack at the main gate of...
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Pakistan, which has in the past denied supporting the Taliban, said it remains committed to maintaining good relations with Kabul and that after losing tens of thousands of its own people to terrorist attacks, it can feel the "pain and anguish of the brotherly people" of Afghanistan over the latest attacks there.

"Pakistan condemns these deadly attacks in Afghanistan in the strongest terms," said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, adding that Pakistan will continue to support and facilitate an "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process" with the Taliban.

Pakistan hosted the first official round of Kabul-Taliban negotiations last month, but a second round that was due at the end of last month was indefinitely postponed after the Afghan government announced the death over two years ago of the reclusive Taliban leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar.

The one-eyed Mullah Omar had hosted Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaida in the years leading up to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. He had not been seen in public since fleeing over the border into Pakistan after the 2001 U.S.-led invasion that ousted the Taliban. Since the announcement of his death, the Taliban have been torn by infighting and rivalries for the leadership post.

On Monday, Ghani appeared to take a step back on the peace talks.

(AP) Afghan security forces inspect the site of an attack at the main gate of...
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"We don't want Pakistan to bring the Taliban to peace talks, but to stop the Taliban's activities on their soil," he said.

Only hours earlier, a suicide car bombing at a busy roundabout near the entrance to the Kabul airport killed at least five people and wounded 16, officials said. The Taliban quickly claimed responsibility for the attack.

The Kabul provincial police chief, Abdul Rahman Rahimi, told The Associated Press that a car packed with explosives blew up at the busy intersection.

Ghani also underlined his concerns in a telephone conversation Monday with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.

Kerry spokesman John Kirby said the two discussed the need of Afghanistan and Pakistan to eliminate safe havens for Taliban insurgents.

(AP) Afghan boys look through their window, at the site after an attack on the main gate...
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The attacks demonstrate the insurgency's "complete disregard for the lives of innocent Afghans," Kirby told reporters in Washington, saying the U.S. would work with Afghanistan and Pakistan to try to create a "stable, secure and prosperous region."

"Now is the time for the leaders of Afghanistan, Pakistan, to work together to achieve the shared goal of defeating violent extremists," he said. "It is in the urgent interest of both countries to eliminate safe havens and to reduce the operational capacity of the Taliban on both sides of the border."

Monday's suicide car bombing was the latest in a series of deadly attacks on the capital, which since Friday have killed more than 50 people and wounded hundreds.

The Taliban have claimed responsibility for all the attacks but one — a truck bomb explosion that flattened a city block, killed 15 people and wounded 240 as they slept in the early hours of Friday.

It is widely believed the truck in that attack detonated prematurely — CCTV footage shown on Afghan television purportedly showed the truck hitting a speed bump and then blowing up.

Earlier this month, the Afghan intelligence service disclosed that Mullah Omar had been dead for more than two years. The disclosure, later confirmed by the Taliban, triggered the internal succession dispute and raised questions about the future direction of the insurgency.

Ghani said the recent attacks showed "the war has changed shape."

"The enemy who was fighting to gain territory and claim victory, has now had its backbone broken," he said of the insurgent group. "It is so desperate now that it has turned to cowardly attacks against innocent people just to weaken people's morale."

---

Associated Press writers Zarar Khan in Islamabad and Bradley Klapper in Washington contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150811/lt--mexico-activist_killed-d0c23932fb.html

Activist in search for missing students killed in Mexico

Aug 10, 11:33 PM (ET)
By JOSE ANTONIO RIVERA

(AP) In this Sept. 1, 2014 photo, Miguel Angel Jimenez, a political activist who played a...
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ACAPULCO, Mexico (AP) — Miguel Angel Jimenez, a political activist who played a prominent early role in the search for 43 students and other missing people in southern Mexico, was slain over the weekend, an associate said Monday.

The bullet-ridden body of Jimenez, a member of the Union of Towns and Organizations, or UPOEG for its initials in Spanish, was found in a car near a town where he had helped found a community police program.

UPOEG leader Bruno Placido confirmed the death and said Jimenez had received threats related to his search efforts.

Jimenez began organizing searches for 43 teachers' college students who went missing after they were detained by police last September in Guerrero state.

Prosecutors say corrupt local police in the city of Iguala turned the students over to members of a drug cartel, the Guerreros Unidos, who killed the students and incinerated their bodies.

But the searches Jimenez led into the mountains surrounding the city turned up clandestine graves filled with other bodies.

Placido said the death threats may have come from Guerreros Unidos and Jimenez had returned to his hometown of Xaltianguis in Guerrero to be safer.

Jimenez was found dead on the outskirts of Xaltianguis, and relatives buried him there Sunday.

Jimenez played a key role in expanding the search effort to include hundreds of other Iguala residents whose relatives disappeared during the cartel's reign of kidnappings and killings.

While he gradually relinquished leadership of the search efforts after November, he continued to supply information and said he had new leads.

"He was always looking for somebody to help," said Xitlali Miranda, one of the activists in the Iguala searches. "He was one of the first people to say, 'If these aren't the students (bodies), then who are they?'"

In July, Mexico's attorney general's office confirmed that at least 60 clandestine graves with 129 bodies have been found so far on the outskirts of Iguala. Most of the bodies remain unidentified.

Jimenez also organized community police efforts to fight kidnappings, killings and extortion by criminal gangs, and drives to document vote fraud in June's midterm elections.

In an April interview with Kara Andrade, a doctoral student at American University, Jimenez said he had received death threats from "people who are involved in things and whose interests I have impacted."

"They've chased me, in my town (Xaltianguis) they've tailed and followed me from place to place," Jimenez said.

Still he kept up his activism in Guerrero, a state plagued by drug trafficking and cultivation, gang battles, extortion, illegal logging and land disputes.

"I don't do this because of me or the abuses we live now. I do this for the next generation and for my children," Jimenez said. "If someone doesn't sacrifice themselves right now, I ask myself who will?"

 

[Housecarl]

As an aside, the Imperial Japanese Army ran a jungle warfare school on Taiwan before the Second World War.....

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http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...razilian-assistance-jungle-training/31180643/

Chinese Seek Brazilian Assistance With Jungle Training

By Tim Mahon 4:23 p.m. EDT August 10, 2015

MANAUS, Brazil — Chinese military officials have requested the Brazilian Army's assistance in developing their own jungle warfare training capabilities, officials here said.

Briefing reporters in July, Col. Alcimar Marques de Araújo Martins, commander of the Centro de Instruçao de Guerra na Selva (CIGS – Jungle Warfare Training Center,) indicated that China had recently arranged to send a group of officers and NCOs to be trained at the CIGS, but they canceled their attendance in favor of an alternative approach.

“They have now asked us to provide a number of trainers and our jungle warfare training expertise to assist them in developing their own program in China,” he said. There was no indication as to the immediacy of such cooperation or the number of trainers likely to be sent.

While it is not clear why the Chinese are expanding their jungle training operations, the country does have long, jungle-covered borders with several neighbors.

The CIGS, celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2015, has trained almost 6,000 officers and NCOs over the years, of which nearly 500 have been from foreign countries. Although the great majority of these foreign students have come from Brazil’s Latin American neighbors, there have been some 27 US attendees and over 100 from Europe, notably from France. Only one attendee, so far, has come from Asia.

CIGS’ modus operandi is to “train the trainers,” in courses limited to 100-120 students up to three times per year. The 10-week course (eight weeks for the senior officer’s course) teaches a wide variety of jungle warfare techniques ranging from survival and foraging to navigation, fire and movement disciplines, riverine assault techniques, and jungle hygiene procedures.

Once graduated from the course, officers and NCOs return to their units to conduct training for their own troops.

In the Brazilian Army, the soldiers of Comando Militar da Amazônia (CMA - Amazon Military Command) provide special border platoons, who are posted to frontier locations for tours of up to a year, where they offer not only security but also social and educational assistance to remote communities.

CIGS therefore places great importance on medical training and in the diagnosis and treatment of a wide variety of diseases and ailments unique to the jungle environment.

These platoons are central to the strategy of presence and deterrence in the more than 5 million-square-kilometer area of the Amazon basin constituting CMA’s area of responsibility.

“We currently have 24 of these platoons, but our transformation program calls for this to increase to 52 and we will also be adding a fifth Jungle Infantry Brigade to our organization,” said Maj. Antoine de Souza Cruz of the CMA staff in Manaus.

Elsewhere in the Army’s training structure there is also close cooperation with foreign nations. Within the Parachute Infantry Brigade, based at Vila Militar outside Rio de Janeiro, the Precursor Pára Qedista (Parachute Pathfinder Company) already has training programs in place with neighboring nations, and even further afield, according to the company’s second in command, Capt. Gedeel Machado Brito Valin.

“The Pathfinder course here has become a reference for South America. Today we have a captain preparing and conducting the first Pathfinder course for the Paraguayan Air Force and next year we will continue with this program and also start cooperation of a similar nature in Argentina and Peru,” he said.

It is not just South America where Brazilian expertise in this area is understood and appreciated, Gedeel said.

“After a visit to the Brazilian Pathfinder Course, the Canadian Army invited us to send an instructor to the Canadian Forces Warfare Center to participate as a foreign instructor on the Canadian Pathfinder Course. We also had a Canadian instructor with us last year and this year will mark the second of our joint cooperation,” he said.

As part of its continuing improvement of training facilities and the implementation of more integrated training solutions, the Brazilian Army recently instituted a constructive simulation system aimed at providing a sophisticated training environment for commanders and staff at up to divisional level.

Known as COMBATER, the simulation system is based on SWORD, the artificial intelligence-based core wargaming solution developed by the MASA Group, Paris. SWORD has been tailored for the customer to take unique aspects of Brazilian Army tactical doctrine into account, as well as more directly address the developing training requirements.

In July in Comando Militar do Sul (Southern Military Command) commanders and staff from 3rd Division — one of the largest in the Army — took part in Operaçao Liberdade Azul, a division-level, four-brigade exercise that successfully stretched COMBATER to its limits.

The exercise used all 128 licences MASA provided in its initial contract and coordinated headquarters staff for the division and its component units with elements of those units training "live" in the field.

Opposing forces provided from within the division were also catered for within the simulation.

“Exercises like this, supported by the facilities that COMBATER make available to us, are an ideal opportunity for us to grow. We love to make new mistakes and learn from them,” said Gen. José Carlos Cardoso, commander of 3rd Division. “And it is important we do so. As our Army chief of staff has said about the transformation process we are engaged in at the moment, the objective of transformation is to change minds.”

 

[Housecarl]

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150811/af--boko_haram-16d36ae93a.html

Cameroon forces kill 10 Boko Haram fighters, arrest several

Aug 11, 12:07 PM (ET)

YAOUNDE, Cameroon (AP) — A Cameroon troop commander says forces killed 10 suspected Boko Haram fighters who had launched an attack on a town bordering Nigeria.

Col. Jacob Kodji said Tuesday that hundreds of fighters entered the border town of Ashigashia in Cameroon early Tuesday, shooting into the air. He said the insurgents retreated when reinforcements arrived to back the Cameroonian soldiers.

Col. Kodji said two soldiers were seriously wounded and 10 attackers were killed. He said some arrests were made. He said no civilian casualties were reported.

Boko Haram has extended its attacks into Cameroon.

In August 2014, insurgents occupied Ashigashia for three weeks before Cameroonian forces recaptured the territory. More than 10,000 Cameroonians and Nigerians living in the border town fled to a neighboring town in Cameroon's Far North region.

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150811/af--mali-violence-8955786cfd.html

3 dead, 4 wounded in attack on Mali army

Aug 11, 12:37 PM (ET)
By BABA AHMED

BAMAKO, Mali (AP) — An army vehicle hit a roadside bomb in Mali's central area, killing three soldiers and injuring four others, the government said Tuesday.

The vehicle was patrolling Monday when it hit the explosive near the town of Diabozo, in the same Mopti region as an attack on a hotel Friday, the government said in a statement.

The total death toll in the attack on the hotel in Sevare that began Friday and ended with a rescue by Malian special forces Saturday remained 13, but the accounting of those killed has changed, according to the government and the U.N.

Mali army spokesman Col. Souleymane Maiga said Tuesday that four soldiers were killed in the attack on the hotel in Sevare, correcting earlier statements that five were killed. He said four jihadists were killed, not three as the government earlier stated.

The U.N. mission in Mali also released a statement Tuesday clarifying that four contractors were killed and the fifth person was a driver, not a contractor.

The attack on the Hotel Byblos was the first by extremists in the town of Sevare. Jihadist groups, whose strongholds are in the north, are attacking further south and targeting Malian forces and the U.N.

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150811/af--boko_haram-1130e1f11c.html

Bomb at Nigerian market kills 24, extremists attack Cameroon

Aug 11, 1:47 PM (ET)
By HARUNA UMAR

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria (AP) — A bomb blast killed at least 24 people in northeastern Nigeria and hundreds of fighters invaded a town across the border in Cameroon in attacks Tuesday that witnesses and officials blame on Boko Haram Islamic extremists.

These are the latest in a string of bombings and village raids that have killed hundreds in recent weeks as officials promise the deployment of a regional army to halt the Nigerian-born Islamic uprising that has killed some 20,000 in six years and spilled across the West African nation's borders.

In Cameroon, troops repelled an attack on Ashigashia, killing 10 and forcing the insurgents to retreat, said military spokesman Col. Jaco Kodji. Two soldiers were wounded but no civilians were reported injured, he said.

In the northeastern Nigerian village of Sabon Gari, civilian defense volunteers collected bodies and body parts of 24 people who died in an explosion around midday, said the group's spokesman Abbas Gava. Almost all victims are believed to be traders at the market, Gava said.

A nurse at Biu hospital 25 miles (40 kilometers) away said they received more than 20 bodies burned beyond recognition and are treating 41 survivors.

A regional army of 8,750 troops from five nations was supposed to be deployed in November but has been delayed. Nigeria's new President Muhammadu Buhari, who was inaugurated at the end of May, had pledged the force would be active by the end of July. Delays have been blamed on funding and uneasy relations between Nigeria and its neighbors.

---

Associated Press writer Edwin Kindzeka Moki contributed to this report from Yaounde, Cameroon.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/xi-jinpings-new-generals/

Xi Jinping’s New Generals

There are some oddities in the most recent round of PLA promotions.

By Bo Zhiyue
August 11, 2015

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On July 31, one day after Guo Boxiong, a former vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and Politburo member, was expelled from the Party and handed over for a court martial, the Central Military Commission held a ceremony awarding 10 military officers the rank of full general.

The 10 generals are widely distributed among different units of the People’s Liberation Army. General Wang Guanzhong is a deputy chief of staff; General Yin Fanglong is a deputy director of the General Political Department; Admiral Miao Hua is political commissar of the PLA Navy; General Zhang Shibo is president of the National Defense University; General Song Puxuan is commander of the Beijing Military Region; General Liu Yuejun is commander of the Lanzhou Military Region; General Zhao Zongqi is commander of the Jinan Military Region; General Zheng Weiping is political commissar of the Nanjing Military Region; General Li Zuocheng is commander of the Chengdu Military Region; and General Wang Ning is commander of the People’s Armed Police.

However, not all of them have met the conventional criteria for promotion to the rank of full general. In the Regulations on the Military Ranks of Officers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, the legal document regarding the promotions and demotions of the PLA officers, there are no specific requirements for the promotion to the rank of full general. According to the first item of Article 17, officers at the rank of senior colonel and above are promoted based on “their positions, virtues and talents, and contributions to the national defense construction.” But the convention has been that a candidate for promotion to the rank of full general should have been a lieutenant general for four years and a chief leader of military region rank for two years.

In terms of these conventional criteria, eight of the 10 officers are eligible. General Liu Yuejun, for instance, was awarded the rank of lieutenant general in July 2008 and was promoted to the rank of military region chief in October 2010. The same is true of Generals Zheng Weiping, Zhao Zongqi, Zhang Shibo, Song Puxuan, Li Zuocheng, and Yin Fanglong. They have all been lieutenant generals for more than four years and military regional chiefs for two years, though Li Zuocheng and Song Puxuan barely meet the second criterion.

What is interesting is that two officers who do not meet these conventional criteria have also been promoted: General Wang Ning and Admiral Miao Hua. Wang Ning was awarded the rank of lieutenant general in July 2012 while he was chief of staff of the Beijing Military Region and was promoted to the rank of military region chief in July 2013 when he was promoted to deputy chief of staff of the General Staff Department. He has been in his new post as commander of the People’s Armed Police for seven months.

Miao Hua is on an even faster track. He was also awarded the rank of lieutenant general in July 2012 while he was newly appointed deputy political commissar of the Lanzhou Military Region. But he was promoted to the rank of military regional chief merely one year ago. He was promoted to political commissar of the Lanzhou Military Region in July 2014. Five months later, he was transferred to Beijing as political commissar of the PLA Navy.

As described in a previous Diplomat article, Wang and Miao both previously worked in the 31st Army. Wang was commander of the army for three years, and Miao spent almost 36 years there. Both are the beneficiaries of the rise of the 31st Army in the Chinese military.

What is most fascinating about this round of promotions is that Central Military Commission Chairman Xi Jinping’s name has been placed in front of Premier Li Keqiang’s name in the announcement of their approvals for the Wang’s promotion to the rank of full general as commander of the People’s Armed Police.

Since the promulgation of the Law of the People’s Republic of China on National Defense on March 14, 1997, the premier’s name has always been placed in front of the name of the CMC chairman in the promotion of the leaders of the People’s Armed Police in accordance with the law (in particular, Item 8 of Article 12).

Yang Guoping was the first officer to be awarded the rank of full general from the People’s Armed Police after 1997. His promotion was approved by Premier Li Peng and Chairman Jiang Zemin on March 4, 1998. His successor, Wu Shuangzhan, was promoted to the rank of full general in the People’s Armed Police (along with Sui Mingtai, the then-political commissar of the People’s Armed Police) by Premier Wen Jiabao and Chairman Jiang Zemin on June 14, 2004. Similarly, Wu’s successor, Wang Jianping, was promoted to the same rank in July 2012 with the approval of Premier Wen Jiabao and Chairman Hu Jintao on June 28, 2012.

The change to the order of the premier and the chairman’s names should not be dismissed as gibberish; it reflects the new power relationship. Ideally, the law should have been amended before the change. But the law now will have to be amended to reflect the new reality sooner or later if this new power relationship is more desirable.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-russia-hold-wargames/

Iran, Russia Hold Wargames

Iranian and Russian warships team up for war drills

BY: Adam Kredo
August 11, 2015 4:29 pm

Iranian and Russian naval forces on Tuesday staged a series of war drills in the waters near northern Iran, in another joint show of force meant to display the two nations’ control of nearby waterways.

An Iranian destroyer and team of Russian warships staged a series of war drills and engaged in joint training exercises, according to reports in Iran’s state-controlled press.

Two Russian warships docked over the weekend in Iran’s northern Anzali port in anticipation of the wargames.

The military exercises come just weeks after Iran and global powers signed a nuclear accord that will provide Iran with billions of dollars in sanctions relief and lift restrictions on the country’s ballistic missile program.

At least 200 Iranian naval forces also will participate in the war drills, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.

Iranian Admiral Ahmad Reza Baqeri, the commander of Iran’s war fleet, disclosed that an Iranian destroyer and several “missile-launching warships” will participate in the drills with the Russian fleet.

The war games are a sign of the increased military ties between Russian and Iran, which have signed multiple arms agreements in recent months. Russia also has agreed to aid in the construction of new nuclear reactors in Iran.

The Russian fleet docked in Iran’s port “carrying a message of ‘peace and friendship,’” according to Iranian officials quoted by Fars. The fleet was “welcomed by Iranian naval commanders and staff.”

A ceremony was held in recent days to celebrate the arrival of the Russian warfleet, with Russian Captain Kirill Taranenko stating that military relations between the two countries are set to grow.

In addition to the war drills, Russian and Iranian military officials held a series of meetings.

“The maritime relations between Russia and Iran will be expanded and we will go ahead with our official and unofficial visits to Iran,” Taranenko was quoted as saying.

“Iranian forces will most likely pay a visit to Russia in mid-October,” the Russian military leader added.

Levan Jagarian, Russia’s ambassador to Tehran, reportedly attended the docking ceremony and called for “for boosting mutual ties between the two countries in various fields,” according to the report.

The two nations went on to say that “expanding bilateral economic, political, and military cooperation is among the priorities of the visit.”

Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon adviser and expert on rogue regimes, told the Washington Free Beacon on Monday that the Obama administration is ignoring the Russian-Iranian military buildup.

“We’re witnessing a new great game, and Obama is so self-centered he keeps playing solitaire,” Rubin said at the time. “Obama simply doesn’t understand that the world is full of dictators who seek to checkmate America. What he sees as compromise; they see as weakness to exploit.”

Referring to a visit last week to Russia by IRGC leader Qassem Soleimani, who is responsible for the deaths of Americans, Rubin said it is clear that Moscow and Tehran aim to build a tight military alliance.

“Visiting Russia to talk arms purchases and now this naval visit, it’s clear that Putin and Khamenei will waste no time to really develop their military cooperation,” he said.

 

[Housecarl]

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...perations-in-DMZ-Yonhap&p=5730829#post5730829

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http://www.france24.com/en/20150811-georgia-warns-russia-against-escalation-near-breakaway-region

11 August 2015 - 23H05

Georgia warns Russia against 'escalation' near breakaway region

TBILISI (AFP) -
Georgia on Tuesday accused Russia of cutting off its citizens from their farmland by installing border signposts demarcating the breakaway South Ossetia region, calling on Moscow to refrain from "escalation".

The signposts have been installed near three villages in recent days and land belonging to several local residents ended up beyond the demarcation line with South Ossetia, a Georgian region that declared independence and which Tbilisi considers occupied by Russia.

Tbilisi vowed to help local residents and accused Moscow of repeated provocations.

"The enemy is testing our patience on a daily basis," President Giorgi Margvelashvili said on Monday.

Defence Minister Tina Khidasheli said Tuesday that the government had a duty to "help local residents on the ground as quickly and efficiently as possible".

Russian troops have been installing barbed wire around South Ossetia since Tbilisi's defeat in the brief 2008 Russia-Georgia war over control of the Moscow-backed separatist region.

After the war, Moscow recognised South Ossetia -- along with the Georgian separatist enclave of Abkhazia -- as independent states and stationed thousands of troops in the regions that make up some 20 percent of Georgian territory.

The breakaway regions, whose self-proclaimed independence has been recognised by only a handful of countries, are heavily dependent on Russia's military and financial support.

Local residents estimated that the new border signposts effectively moved the demarcation line by 800 metres deeper into Georgia's territory, according to Georgian media.

Georgia's foreign ministry called the installation of the border signposts "another provocative act by Moscow which threatens security and stability and violates fundamental rights of local residents".

"Georgia once again calls on the Russian Federation to fullfil its international commitments and refrain from actions that may cause further escalation," it added in a statement.

Last month a similar move left a portion of an international pipeline beyond Georgia's control, leading the foreign minister to decry "creeping annexation".

Georgians later removed the signs but they were erected again last week, the foreign ministry said Monday, adding that it has handed a formal note of protest to Moscow.

2015 AFP

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.france24.com/en/20150811-ukraine-tensions-flare-kiev-tank-assault-Starohnativka-Novolaspa

Europe

Tensions in east Ukraine as Kiev ‘repels tank assault’


Video by FRANCE 24
Text by FRANCE 24
Latest update : 2015-08-12

A surge of fighting in eastern Ukraine, where Kiev reported the heaviest shelling in six months, has raised concerns that both Ukrainian and pro-Russian separatist forces are getting ready for a return to all-out warfare.

Kiev accused on Tuesday the separatist fighters of launching another missile attack on Starohnativka, a town located between the rebel de-facto capital of Donetsk and the government-controlled Black Sea port of Mariupol.

The assault comes one day after Ukrainian government forces repelled a pre-dawn rebel raid near the village of Novolaspa.

“It’s usually a relatively quiet spot on the front. But yesterday, some 200 separatists backed by a dozen tanks and heavy artillery reportedly attacked Ukrainian forces,” said FRANCE 24’s correspondent in Kiev, Stephane Siohan.

At least one Ukrainian soldier was killed in the clashes. FRANCE 24’s Siohan said that according to his information three fighters from the ultra-nationalist Pravy Sektor group were also killed in the battle. Rebel sources reported the death of one militia member and a civilian in the separatist Donetsk province.

“These are the most violent clashes since the battle of Maryinka, near Donetsk, on June 3. Government forces had then repelled a rebel assault, killing dozens of separatist fighters,” said Siohan.

Fears of further escalation to come

The European Union warned on Tuesday that the upsurge in fighting could threaten the peace accord signed in mid-February in the Belarusian capital of Minsk.

"The renewed escalation of the conflict... as a result of attacks on several government-controlled areas today and in the night of 10 August on Starohnativka, violates the spirit and the letter of the Minsk Agreements," the EU's External Action Service said in a statement.

Both Kiev’s forces and pro-Russian separatists regularly accuse the other of violating the terms of the peace agreement and casualties are reported almost daily.

A ceasefire deal, signed in mid-February, has failed to stem the violence in the eastern conflict zone. Both sides regularly accuse the other of violating the terms of the peace agreement and casualties are reported almost daily.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the clashes in Novoslapa were "a dangerous indication of a further escalation to come".

"The rebels used to launch Grad missile attacks on a rare occasion. Now, it is an everyday occurrence,” Ukrainian military spokesman Vladyslav Seleznyov told AFP.

Taking Starohnativka would allow pro-Russian rebels to close in on Mariupol. The government-held port is strategic for separatists because it would allow them to control a land bridge between their territories and the Crimea peninsula annexed by Moscow in March 2014.

“Heavy shelling attack”

Separatist fighters on Monday denied Kiev’s claims, saying that Novolaspa had always been one of their frontline outposts.

"The armed forces of Ukraine simply put the village under a heavy shelling attack," a local separatist official told the rebels' main news site.

Senior insurgency leader Eduard Basurin accused Ukraine's army of firing 500 mortar shells and rockets at rebel positions since Monday afternoon.

More than 6,800 people have been killed since the conflict between Ukrainian forces and separatists in the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk escalated in early 2014.

The latest reported clashes came one day after a special monitoring mission from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe saw several of its armoured vehicles torched by “unknown assailants” outside its headquarters in Donetsk

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and REUTERS)

Date created : 2015-08-11

 

[Housecarl]

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/china-responds-to-afghanistans-bloodiest-day-since-2009/

China Responds to Afghanistan's Bloodiest Day Since 2009

China’s ambassador promised training and equipment for Afghan forces. With peace talks faltering, will that be enough?

By Shannon Tiezzi
August 10, 2015

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August 8, 2015 was the bloodiest day for Afghanistan’s capital in years. Three bombings in Kabul– outside a U.S. military base, an Afghan army compound, and a police academy – left over 50 dead and 500 wounded. Most of the victims were civilians, despite the nature of the targets. It was the worst day for civilian casualties since data began being collected in 2009, the UN mission in Afghanistan said.

Two days later, on August 10, China’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Deng Xijun, held what Pajhwok Afghan News called a “marathon meeting” with Afghan National Security Adviser Mohammad Hanif Atmar. During the discussion, Pajhwok reported, Deng offered China’s condolences over the recent bombings in Kabul. He also said that China was ready to offer equipment and support to Afghanistan’s security forces.

As The Diplomat has previously covered, China is stepping up its support for Afghanistan as the U.S.-led NATO mission winds down, leaving Afghan forces in control of their country’s security. China, which shares a border with Afghanistan, is concerned that instability in the country could spill over into the broader South and Central Asia region – including China’s own Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

As a result, China has pledged more aid for the government in Kabul. When new President Ashraf Ghani made his first visit to China in October, he left with promises from Beijing to provide 2 billion RMB ($327 million) in aid through 2017 and to provide training for 3,000 Afghan professionals. When Chinese President Xi Jinping met Ghani again, this time on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Russia, he again pledged that “China will continue to supply Afghanistan with security supplies, technology, equipment and training assistance.”

Still, Beijing has been reluctant to provide the sort of military aid that Kabul most wants. So far, China’s involvement has been limited to the two areas Deng mentioned: providing equipment and support (usually through training) for Afghan forces. In practice, China has taken care to limit its involvement in the actual conflict by mostly providing police – rather than military – training and nonlethal security equipment.

Instead, China has concentrated its efforts on trying to breathe life into moribund peace talks between the government in Kabul and the Taliban. In November 2014, China put forward a proposal to restart the peace talks. Since then, reports indicate that China hosted Taliban representatives for informal talks, in late 2014 and May 2015, in hopes of moving the peace process along. The move toward trilateral talks, involving Kabul, the Taliban, and the Pakistani government – believed to have major sway over the Taliban – are also attributed to China’s efforts, as Beijing likely nudged Islamabad to take part.

Talks hit a snag, however, in late July, with the news that Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar has been dead for two years. With the knowledge that Omar is dead, the Taliban may fracture, making peace talks even more difficult. Shortly after the news broke, a round of peace talks scheduled to be held in Pakistan on July 31, was cancelled – much to China’s chagrin. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said that China “understands the postponement” but also urged “relevant parties to have national unity and enduring peace of Afghanistan in mind, and press ahead with the peace reconciliation process.”

As my colleague Catherine Putz discussed, with the Taliban claiming responsibility for the deadly bombings in Kabul, however, peace talks are becoming less and less likely. In a press conference after the bombings, Ghani said that “the war methods have changed against Afghans. The peace process is facing new questions.” Ghani seemed particularly disillusioned about Pakistan’s commitment to the peace talks, warning that “We can no longer tolerate to see our people bleeding in a war exported and imposed on us from outside….We hoped for peace, but war is declared against us from Pakistani territory.”

China is still trying to revive the possibility of negotiations; Deng reportedly told Atmar that China remains in favor of the peace talks and wants differences resolved through negotiations. But should talks finally collapse, China may have to make a hard choice: between letting instability spread in Afghanistan, or compromising its own principles of non-interference to provide greater military assistance to Kabul’s security forces.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Conflict News ‏@rConflictNews 23m23 minutes ago

BREAKING: U.S. military chopper carrying 17 crashes off Japan, official says - @NBCNews http://nbcnews.to/1MjuZj7


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http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-military-helicopter-crashes-japans-okinawa-official-n408281


U.S. Military Helicopter Crashes Off Japan's Okinawa: Official

by Arata Yamamoto

TOKYO — A U.S. military helicopter crashed off the Japanese island of Okinawa, an official told NBC News.
Image: File photo of U.S. Army UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter
A file photo of a U.S. Army UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter. Reuters file

Patrol boats and helicopters were sent to search for the helicopter and its crew.

However, Okinawa coast guard spokesman Yosuke Watanuki said it later received a call from U.S. Camp Foster military police, calling off the request for assistance.

The spokesman said that all 17 U.S. personnel on board the helicopter had been rescued. However, U.S. officials in the country were not immediately available for comment when contacted by NBC News.

According to Watanuki, seven people were injured in the crash.

Public broadcaster NHK reported that the incident involved a UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter. NBC News was not immediately able to confirm that account.

Aerial footage broadcast by NHK showed a black helicopter on the deck of a ship with part of its tail broken off. "United States Army" was clearly visible on the side of the aircraft.

Okinawa, an island more than 900 miles southwest of Tokyo, is home to the bulk of U.S. military forces stationed in Japan.




ETA:
Conflict News ‏@rConflictNews 7m7 minutes ago

UPDATE: All 17 crew were rescued, 7 injured in US helicopter crash. - @metesohtaoglu

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.realclearenergy.org/arti...oil_strategy_brilliant_or_suicide_108668.html

August 11, 2015

The Saudi Oil Strategy: Brilliant or Suicide?

By Dalan McEndree

In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market’s swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices.

In October, Saudi sources first prepared the market with statements that the country would be comfortable with oil prices as low as $80 per barrel for “a year or two.” At the November OPEC meeting, the Saudi oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, publicly announced Saudi Arabia would allow market forces to set prices. He argued that rapidly growing production outside OPEC made the existing status quo unviable, and that lower prices in the short term would increase prices in the longer term through reduced investment and ultimately benefit all OPEC members.

Parallel with this shift, Saudi officials expressed confidence in their country’s financial wherewithal to withstand the repercussions of lower oil prices.

The Saudis Expected a Hole, Not a Bottomless Pit

The Saudis obviously miscalculated the degree to which their shift would negatively impact oil prices. The average price of Brent, the global benchmark, fell below the Saudis’ $80 floor in November, fell to $62.34 in December, then fell below $50 in February. Prices rebounded to $60 for a few months, before falling once again below $50.

Plunging oil prices have substantially reduced Saudi revenues. With Brent prices averaging roughly $100 per barrel in 2014, Saudi oil exports of 6.31 million barrels per day would have generated roughly $631 million in revenues daily. In the first quarter, with Brent prices averaging $53.92, the same output would have generated roughly $340 million daily, $291 million less per day than oil at $100 per barrel.

The Saudis have attempted to mitigate the revenue shortfall through increased production, ramping up output from 9.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2014 to an eye-popping 10.5 million barrels per day in June.

The revenue from increased production, however, is overwhelmed by the collapse of prices, which has ripped a substantial hole in the Saudi budget. In December 2014, the Saudi government approved spending $229 billion in 2015, resulting in an estimated deficit of $39 billion, or some 5 percent of GDP.

As mid-year 2015 approached, the IMF estimated the budget deficit would equal approximately 20 percent of Saudi GDP. The Financial Times quoted analysts as estimating the Saudi budget deficit in 2015 at $130 billion. Even with massive deficit spending, the IMF estimated GDP growth would slow from 3.6 percent in 2014 to 3.3 percent in 2015, and then just 2.7 percent in 2016.

Racing to $Zero Barrel Oil

The Saudi miscalculation has several sources. One is the negative feedback loop between oil production, GDP, and national budgets that plagues many non-Western oil producers. Their GDP and national budgets depend significantly on the revenues from their oil exports. As a result, the revenue shortfalls incentivize them to produce as much oil as possible to mitigate the shortfall.

According to the IEA, daily output in June 2015 increased 3.1 million barrels over 2014, with 60 percent (1.8 million barrels) coming from OPEC. At 31.7 million barrels per day, OPEC output reached a three-year high.

This increase in output occurs with the context of a narrow global demand opportunity. Growth in demand in 2015, which the IEA forecasts to average around 1.4 million barrels per day, comes primarily from Asia and North America. In other major export markets, demand is stagnant. That has oil exporting countries, including OPEC members, Russia and others, focusing their sales on Asia, particularly China. North American demand is growing now that oil prices are low, but due to high levels of domestic production, the U.S. is no longer a growth market for oil exporters.

Each producer, therefore, is incentivized to undercut other producers directly (price per barrel) or indirectly (absorbing shipping cost or delivery risk) to win sales in Asia (or displace incumbent suppliers in other major markets). National oil producers can and are shifting the cost of the lowered prices to other sectors of the economy. The U.A.E., for example, has ended fuel subsidies, thereby essentially, increasing its budget revenues, while Saudi Arabia recently floated a $4 billion domestic bond offering to help finance its budget.

Asian customers are taking advantage of the competition. They are reducing the share of long-term contracts in favor of spot purchases. For example, as the Wall Street Journal reported, some Japanese refiners are cutting the proportion of oil purchased through long-term contracts to around 70 percent from more than 90 percent, while some South Korean refiners are reducing the proportion from 75 to 50 percent. Furthermore, several national oil companies, Venezuela’s among them, are building refineries with local partners in Asia, which will use their crude.

Given this environment, it is not surprising that the revenue elasticity of production is highly sensitive, and negative. Saudi Arabia increased production by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015 but saw export revenues shrink by 42 percent.

Any Saudi Victory Will Be Pyrrhic

Saudi confidence in their financial wherewithal is proving misplaced. Their need for revenue is intensifying rather than moderating. They are fighting a multi-front war with Iran directly (in Yemen) and indirectly (in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq). ISIS, Al Qaeda, and disaffected Shias present a significant domestic security threat. Countering external and internal threats demands increased spending (including, perhaps, a very expensive future nuclear weapons program), as does placating the fast growing male and female youth demographic, which requires substantial spending on education, training, employment, and support. Hence, the budget deficit equal to 20 percent of GDP, noted above.

Increased production does not offer a solution. Saudi Arabia doesn’t have the capacity to increase production sufficiently to reduce the shortfall significantly in any meaningful timeframe. They currently do not have the spare capacity—to make up for the $291 million in export revenue lost in Q1, 5.4 million more barrels a day would have been necessary at $53.92 a barrel. Of course, such a drastic increase in output would have driven prices even lower.

It is doubtful they can increase capacity substantially even in the medium- to long term. They won’t be able to spend significantly more than other major national oil companies. First, low prices reduce Aramco’s cash flow and therefore its ability to fund investment. Second, the Saudi government likely will increase its draw from this cash flow to fund higher priority national security and domestic security needs.

Third, Saudi refusal to act as price guarantor undercuts the confidence foreigners need to invest in, or loan to, oil projects. What might be attractive at $75 per barrel oil isn’t at $50 oil, and even less attractive if the price of oil is thoroughly unpredictable. Fourth, in terms of political risk, Saudi Arabia with its Gulf allies, Iran, and Iraq, and the Middle East in general, is at the epicenter of global tension, turmoil, and tumult. Fifth, its influence within OPEC, and therefore its ability to manage OPEC output and prices, is diminished. Their underestimate of the impact of their policy change on prices, their indifference vis-à-vis the financial damage to other OPEC members, and their willingness to take market share at the expense of other OPEC members undercut their credibility within OPEC (particularly since it derived from Saudi willingness to protect the interests of all members (and sometimes to endure disproportionately).

While Saudi financial reserves are substantial (circa $672 billion in May), drawing on them is little more than a stop-gap measure. If its major competitors (Russia, Iraq, Iran, and North America) maintain or even increase output (and they have the incentive to do so), prices could stay lower far longer than the Saudis anticipated. Saudi reserves have decreased some $65 billion since prices started to fall (in November), so ~$100 billion to ~$130 billion at an annual rate. The longer prices stay low, the faster their reserves fall, and, as reserves plummet, the greater the pressure to prioritize spending, to the disadvantage of some Saudis.

Saudi Arabia Caused The Problem, Can It Engineer A Solution?

Saudi officials apparently viewed $90 or even $80 per barrel oil for “one or two years” with equanimity. Can they maintain the composure they have displayed thus far as they incur in a single year the revenue losses they expected to take four years (at $90 oil) or two years (at $80 oil)?

And if they can’t—and surely, though they are loath to admit it, they can’t—can they engineer a durable increase in prices—i.e., a durable decrease in output? At first glance, it seems impossible. Daily output from Saudi Arabia (10.5 million), and its allies, UAE (2.87), Kuwait (2.8), and Qatar (.67), is roughly equal to the daily output from countries with which it is in conflict, directly or indirectly, Russia (11.2), Iran (2.88), and Iraq (3.75), and therefore have an incentive to take advantage of any unilateral Saudi output concessions.

Yet, in effect, these countries are engaged in the oil equivalent of mutually assured destruction. The sharp drop in oil revenue damages each of these countries economically and financially, while the wars they wage directly and indirectly against each other drain resources from vital domestic projects.

Moreover, given the sensitivity of prices to changes in volume, it is possible, if not likely, that holding output steady or matching a Saudi decrease barrel for barrel could generate an absolute increase in revenues for all.


The original article may be viewed at http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Saudi-Oil-Strategy-Brilliant-or-Suicide.html

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
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http://www.defenseworld.net/news/13...ti_Object_Kill_Vehicle_Prototype#.VcuoDqTH_IV

US DoD Approves $9 Million To Raytheon, Lockheed To Develop Multi-Object Kill Vehicle Prototype

Source : Our Bureau ~ Dated : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 @ 03:34 PM

Views : 292 A- A A+

The US department of Defense has approved $9 million each to Lockheed Martin, Raytheon to define a proof-of-concept prototype of a Multi-Object Kill Vehicle.

Under this new contract, the contractor will define a concept that can destroy several objects within a threat complex by considering advanced sensor, divert and attitude control and communication concepts, the US DOD announced Tuesday.

The contractor will define a proof-of-concept prototype and demonstrate risk mitigation steps and critical functional aspects of the concept.

The contractor will also assess the technical maturity of their concept, prioritize and nominate risk reduction tasks for all critical components and describe how the tasks will reduce risk.

The estimated completion date for both the contracts is May 2016.

This contract was competitively procured via publication on the Federal Business Opportunities website through an Advanced Technology Innovation broad agency announcement with three proposals received.

Fiscal 2015 research, development, test and evaluation funds in the amount of $4 million are being obligated on this award

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.defenseworld.net/news/13...per_ATP_On_Japanese_F_2_Aircraft#.VcuowKTH_IU

Lockheed Martin To Integrate Sniper ATP On Japanese F-2 Aircraft

Source : Our Bureau ~ Dated : Monday, August 10, 2015 @ 04:27 PM

Lockheed Martin has won a contract to integrate Sniper-Advanced Targeting Pod(ATP) onto the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's (JASDF) F-2 aircraft.

This initial contract, awarded through Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in 2014, includes a Sniper pod, spares and support equipment for integration. The F-2 is the eighth aircraft platform to be equipped with Sniper ATP, joining variants of the F-15, F-16, F-18, A-10, B-1, B-52 and Harrier, the company said in a statement Monday.

"Sniper ATP's proven performance and low life cycle cost will provide necessary support to the JASDF mission," said Marc Nazon, Sniper international program manager at Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control. "Integrating Sniper ATP on the F-2 also enables increased collaboration in U.S. Air Force and JASDF joint combat operations."

Lockheed Martin will work with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the prime aircraft manufacturer, to complete Sniper ATP integration on the F-2. Follow-on contracts are expected to include additional pods, spares, logistics and support equipment for the F-2 fleet.

Sniper ATP offers pilots high-resolution imagery for precision targeting and non-traditional intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. It detects, identifies, automatically tracks and laser designates small tactical targets at long ranges and supports employment of all laser- and GPS-guided weapons against multiple fixed and moving targets.

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.businessinsider.com/us-and-turkey-tension-in-isis-fight-2015-8

US military official: 'We were outraged' when Turkey pulled a fast one right after the anti-ISIS deal

Natasha Bertrand
Aug. 11, 2015, 10:16 AM
Comments 32

An American military source told Fox News that US military leaders were "outraged" when Turkey began launching airstrikes against the Kurdish PKK in northern Iraq just hours after striking a deal with the US opposing the Islamic State, the militant group also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh.

A Turkish officer entered the allied headquarters in the air war against ISIS and "announced that the strike would begin in 10 minutes and he needed all allied jets flying above Iraq to move south of Mosul immediately," the source said.

"We were outraged."

The US special forces stationed in northern Iraq advising and training Kurdish peshmerga fighters had virtually no warning before Turkish jets started striking the mountains, where the PKK is headquartered.

"We had no idea who the Turkish fighters were, their call signs, what frequencies they were using, their altitude or what they were squawking [to identify the jets on radar]," the source said.

Turkish military leaders asked coalition officers to reveal the trainers' specific whereabouts to avoid bombing them, but the officers flatly refused.

"No way we were giving that up," the military source said.

"If one of our guys got hit, the Turks would blame us. We gave the Turks large grids to avoid bombing. We could not risk having US forces hit by Turkish bombs."

The confrontation highlights the tension growing between the US and Turkey, which became a reluctant ally in the fight against ISIS after years of turning a blind eye to the militants' illicit activity on its southern border.

ISIS map as of July 27 2015
Reuters


On July 24, Ankara announced it would begin to strike ISIS strongholds in northern Syria and would allow the US to do the same from its Incirlik airbase in southeastern Turkey.

The ongoing bombing campaign against PKK strongholds in northern Iraq came as a surprise, but it probably shouldn't have: Turkey has long seen the PKK — a designated terrorist organization that waged a three-decade insurgency inside Turkey — as more of an existential threat than ISIS, which refrained from launching attacks inside Turkey even as its militants lived and operated along the border.

"There is no difference between PKK and Daesh," Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.

But Ankara's recent anti-terror sweep — which has resulted in the arrest of more than 800 suspected PKK members, compared with just over 100 suspected ISIS sympathizers — and the intensity of its bombing campaign in northern Iraq has made it clear that Turkey's main goal is not to prevent the consolidation of ISIS, but to halt the creation of an autonomous Kurdish state along its southern border.

And blowback — most recently in the form of attacks of security forces and the US consulate in Istanbul — is becoming increasingly likely.

syria
Wikipedia

The US, meanwhile, is moving away from its $500 million Syrian train-and-equip program and embracing a partnership with the YPG — Syrian Kurds who are closely allied with the PKK.

"To fully embrace a Kurdish force would complicate an already fragile strategy, two of the defense officials concluded," Nancy Youseff of The Daily Beast reports.

"The Turks ... would not welcome an emboldened Kurdish force on its southern border. Neither would many of America's Arab allies, who are also threatened by Kurdish sovereignty movements."

And if Turkey keeps going after PKK while not trying to provoke ISIS, "it will leave the US without a Syria strategy," geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer told Business Insider recently.

"Access to Incirlik airbase matters, but the additional bombing it enables will only help contain ISIS, not roll it back," Bremmer added. "And it will leave Washington without the improved relations with Ankara that the Obama administration is hoping for."


See Also....

Turkey 'decided to light a match' and 'won't be able to control the intensity' of what happens next

Turkey's president is making a Machiavellian move

Senior Western official: Links between Turkey and ISIS are now 'undeniable'

 

[Housecarl]

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...pan-Tensions-Set-to-Flare-over-East-China-Sea

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://nationalinterest.org/feature...-tensions-set-flare-over-east-china-sea-13557

Get Ready: China-Japan Tensions Set to Flare over East China Sea [1]
Jeffrey W. Hornung [2] [3]
10

China has been raising blood pressures for some time over its actions in the South China Sea. From its aggressive advocacy of territorial and jurisdictional claims to its expansive land reclamation activities, there are “serious questions about Chinese intentions,” says Adm. Harry Harris [4], Commander of United States Pacific Command.

However, the attention given to events in the South China Sea may soon shift north, as China and Japan slowly ramp up pressure on each other in the East China Sea. Three recent developments have the potential to escalate tensions between these Asian powers—and due to its alliance commitments to Japan, the United States as well.

Beijing and Tokyo’s territorial dispute over the Senkakus (Diaoyu in Chinese) is nothing new. China disputes Japan’s claim that, in the closing days of the Sino-Japanese War, the islands were terra nullius—no man’s land—and Tokyo had the right to incorporate them. Tensions over the islands have grown in recent years, after a Chinese fishing trawler intentionally rammed two Japan Coast Guard vessels in 2010, and Tokyo purchased some of the islands from their private owners in 2012. An outburst of provocative Chinese military and coast guard activity in the skies and waters around the islands followed these events. These activities have since become commonplace. In other words, a tense new normal was established, but it is increasingly stressed by three developments.

The first is China’s construction of two, massive coast guard vessels. Since the China Coast Guard was established in 2013, it has grown to become a key tool in pursuing China’s maritime claims. Toward that end, it commissioned a host of new ships, the most significant being two, high-endurance surveillance ships. Each will reportedly have [5] a 10,000-ton displacement (closer to 15,000 at full load), making these ships the largest coast guard vessels in the world.

Heretofore, the largest surveillance ship was Japan’s Shikishima-class, which has a 6,500-ton displacement (about 9,000 tons at full load). Importantly, unlike most China Coast Guard ships, which are usually unarmed, China’s new ships will be outfitted with firepower (one 76-millimeter cannon, two 30-millimeter guns) and capable of carrying two, multi-role helicopters. One ship is already completed, the Zhongguo Haijing 2901; the second one is in the latter phase of construction.

The second development is that China reportedly plans to build two bases close to the disputed Senkaku Islands. Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the [6] China Coast Guard is considering construction of a large operating base in China’s port city of Wenzhou to enhance surveillance of the islands. The base, about 350 kilometers from the islands, will reportedly be about 500,000 square meters, with a large hangar for airplanes or helicopters, a training facility and a pier over 1.2 kilometers long, capable of mooring six ships—including the Zhongguo Haijing 2901.

News of this project follows reports that China’s military is constructing a large base [7] on Nanji Island, only 300 kilometers from the Senkakus. Photographs show wind turbines, several large radar installations and a heliport with 10 landing pads, most likely to be used by helicopters operating on naval or China Coast Guard ships. Although airstrips are not being constructed, the military already has an airfield in the town of Luqiao, roughly 380 kilometers from the disputed islands.

Third, if big ships and new bases were not enough, just over 180 kilometers northeast of the Senkaku Islands sit oil and gas fields. But it is not the existence of these fields that is the issue; rather, it is efforts to extract resources from them.

Currently, there are 16 Chinese structures engaged in offshore oil and gas activities in the East China Sea. Twelve have been constructed since 2012. In 2008, Beijing and Tokyo agreed they would cooperate on the joint development of East China Sea resources, but Tokyo is now crying foul because it believes the drilling rigs demonstrate China’s unilateral activities.

Beijing disagrees. Although they have differing exclusive economic zone claims, these structures remain on Beijing’s side of the median line proposed by Japan, meaning that China’s activities remain within the undisputed waters of its EEZ. Japan’s concern is that China is tapping into resources under Tokyo’s EEZ, because these structures are close to the median line.

To draw attention to this concern, the Japanese government released aerial photos of these projects and a detailed map of their locations, calling on China to reconsider these activities. In response, China bemoaned Japan’s actions as not being constructive to the management of East China Sea issues, particularly since the structures have been there for two years.

These three developments have the potential to change bilateral dynamics. The new ships improve the China Coast Guard’s maritime strength, thereby enabling China to perform “rights protection” operations far from shore and drive away smaller ships. What is more, the armaments signal that the China Coast Guard is willing to engage other ships aggressively. In turn, this places the Japan Coast Guard in a predicament. If confronted by the 2901, will a Japan Coast Guard ship accept its movements and turn away, or stand firm and risk escalation? The former sets a potentially negative precedent for Japan; the latter risks a conflict that could draw in the United States due to its alliance commitment to Japan.

Similarly, the new bases strengthen China’s ability to conduct surveillance over the disputed Senkakus on a continuous basis. Of particular importance is the fact that both bases are closer to the islands than U.S. and Japanese forces stationed on Okinawa, which is 400 kilometers further north. Beijing is positioning itself to be able to test Japan’s administrative control through its military and coast guard. If Japan attempts to match China’s greater presence, the risks of accidental collision or conflict increase. If Japan continues operations at current levels, it risks the appearance of ceding ground to China. Or worse. Japan’s position to demonstrate administrative control over the islands is jeopardized.

Finally, Chinese oil and gas structures in the East China Sea open up a new front in the maritime dispute that has largely focused on ownership of the islands. While it is unlikely China will stop its activities on its side of the Japanese proposed median line, relations could plummet if Japan responds by moving in resource extraction equipment on its side. In turn, these moves could force both countries to deploy their militaries or coast guards to protect their equipment, thereby expanding the maritime/aerial cat-and-mouse games—so prevalent around the Senkakus—further north. Just as destabilizing would be if China starts to actively ignore the median line and attempts to enforce its EEZ claim extending to the Okinawa Trough, based on the natural extension of its continental shelf. Similar to the South China Sea, the East China Sea would effectively become a Chinese lake, something Japan would never accept.

This all bodes poorly for regional security. What is worse, it leaves the United States in a bind. If any one of these scenarios came to pass, Washington would be left with a very difficult problem. Is it willing to use military assets to protect a handful of uninhabited islands and risk large-scale war with China? Or is it willing to sacrifice its alliance with Japan and, thereby, call into question its commitments worldwide in order to avoid conflict with China?

There are no easy answers. But the problem highlights a critical point. While the world remains transfixed on events in the South China Sea, developments in the East China Sea demand attention, sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, the new normal may already be a thing of the past.

Jeffrey W. Hornung is Fellow for the Security and Foreign Affairs Program at Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA in Washington, D.C.

Image: Wikimedia/Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force [8]

Tags
Japan [9]China [10]East China Sea [11]
Topics
Security [12]
Regions
Asia [13] [3]
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Source URL (retrieved on August 12, 2015): http://nationalinterest.org/feature...-tensions-set-flare-over-east-china-sea-13557

Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/feature...-tensions-set-flare-over-east-china-sea-13557
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/jeffrey-w-hornung
[3] http://twitter.com/share
[4] http://www.voanews.com/content/us-adminral-china-creating-a-great-wall-of-sand-in-sea/2700920.html
[5] http://www.janes.com/article/44631/china-building-10-000-tonne-coastguard-cutters
[6] http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...se-near-senkaku-islands-sources/#.VcoEhjBVhHx
[7] http://www.janes.com/article/48216/imagery-shows-heliport-on-china-s-nanji-islands
[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Maritime_Self-Defense_Force
[9] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/japan
[10] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/china
[11] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/east-china-sea
[12] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
[13] http://nationalinterest.org/region/asia

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
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http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/2015/08/11/12-more--10s-deploy-eastern-europe/31460615/

12 more A-10s to deploy to Eastern Europe

By Phillip Swarts, Staff writer 3:19 p.m. EDT August 11, 2015

The Air Force is deploying a dozen additional A-10 Thunderbolt IIs to Europe this fall as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, the service announced Tuesday.

The 23rd Wing at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia will send 12 of the planes and crews to Central and Eastern European NATO countries as part of a theater security package, the base said in a press release.

The Air Force said the A-10s "will conduct training alongside NATO allies and partners to strengthen interoperability and to demonstrate U.S. commitment to the security and stability of Europe."

Officials did not give a date the planes will leave for Europe, but said more information would be available as the deployment nears.

The Air Force and other military services have increasingly deployed troops and equipment to Eastern Europe as a show of force against Russian action in Ukraine.

In March, another dozen A-10s, from Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona, deployed to Romania and the Czech Republic, while 12 F-15s headed to Bulgaria.

A-10 "Warthogs" were among the first planes picked for deployment because they were available for the six-month mission, officials told the Air Force Times.

U.S. military personnel have used the deployments as opportunities to train European allies and reassure them of America's commitment to defending its partners, officials said.

"Countries that are bordered with Russia have a different feel for the threat than the countries that are farther away," said Lt. Gen. Darryl Roberson, the commander of the 3rd Air Force and 17th Expeditionary Air Force at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, in an April interview with the Air Force Times.

"I would tell you that the folks who are more concerned are the ones who are looking for opportunities to exercise and train more," he said.

Oriana Pawlyk contributed to this story.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.......

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.france24.com/en/20150813-n-korea-slams-south-us-drill-threatens-strikes-white-house

13 August 2015 - 02H05

N. Korea slams South-US drill, threatens strikes on White House

SEOUL (AFP) - North Korea on Thursday condemned a looming South Korea-US joint military exercise as a "declaration of war" and boasted of its ability to make retaliatory strikes against Seoul and the White House.

The annual, two-week "Ulchi Freedom" exercise, which kicks off Monday, involves tens of thousands of troops in what is a largely computer-simulated rehearsal for a North Korean invasion.

It is one of a number of annual joint drills that Washington and Seoul insist are purely defensive in nature, but which Pyongyang condemns as provocative rehearsals for a full-scale attack on the nuclear-armed North.

This year's Ulchi Freedom comes at a time of particularly heightened tensions, following a recent landmine attack on a South Korean border patrol that Seoul blamed on North Korea.

A statement by the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (CPRK), which oversees cross-border issues, denounced Ulchi Freedom as a "drill for a surprise nuclear war" against the North.

"Such large-scale joint military exercises... are little short of a declaration of a war," the statement said, warning of the potential for an accidental military clash that could trigger an "all-out" conflict.

Echoing a threat it has made repeatedly in the past, the committee said South Korea and the United States should be aware that their "strongholds of aggression and provocation" -- including the White House and presidential Blue House in Seoul -- were in range of the North's "ultra-precision" military weapons.

North Korea has an extensive missile development programme to complement its nuclear weapons strategy, although experts are divided as to how advanced its delivery systems are.

In May, the North claimed to have successfully test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) -- a technology that could eventually offer a survivable second-strike capability.

A fully developed SLBM capability would take the North Korean nuclear threat to a new level, allowing deployment far beyond the Korean peninsula.

But numerous experts questioned the authenticity of the May test, saying photos of the launch might have been digitally manipulated.

And North Korea has never conducted a test to back its claim to have a working inter-continental ballistic missile capable of reaching the continental US.

Ulchi Freedom will kick off amid elevated cross-border tensions following the recent mine attack that maimed two South Korean soldiers.

Pyongyang has yet to react to the charge that it was responsible, but the South has already responded by resuming high-decibel propaganda broadcasts across the border, using batteries of loudspeakers that had lain silent for more than a decade.

Officials in the South say restarting the broadcasts is only the "first step" in a series of retaliatory measures.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Conflict News ‏@rConflictNews 27m27 minutes ago

BREAKING: Local sources in Myanamar say security forces have surrounded the HQ of the ruling party & aren't allowing anyone to enter/leave.

 

[Warm Wisconsin]

Conflict News ‏@rConflictNews 27m27 minutes ago

BREAKING: Local sources in Myanamar say security forces have surrounded the HQ of the ruling party & aren't allowing anyone to enter/leave.

Burma is always in a state of flux for power so this doesn't surprise me.

 

[Lilbitsnana]

Conflict News ‏@rConflictNews 1h1 hour ago

More on the situation in #Myanmar http://www.voanews.com/content/tensions-mount-myanmar-ruling-party-headquarters/2916021.html …


Conflict News ‏@rConflictNews 29m29 minutes ago

Head of #Myanmar's ruling party (USDP) has been removed in power struggle, according to officials - @AFP