WAR 05-16-2020-to-05-22-2020___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

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Mitsubishi Electric attack likely stole data on new missile | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

www.asahi.com

Mitsubishi Electric attack likely stole data on new missile

THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
May 20, 2020 at 16:05 JST

The huge cyberattack last year against Mitsubishi Electric Corp. likely leaked information related to one of the most advanced weapons being developed, government sources said.

Mitsubishi Electric has strengthened its view that the case was one of industrial spying. But the sources said the hackers appeared to be targeting the defense industry, specifically information about hypersonic glide missiles.

These missiles are intended to carry out precision attacks on targets after evading the enemy’s missile defense network. The missiles are designed to fly not only at incredibly high speeds but also at various trajectories.

Although the data that likely leaked was not classified as top secret, it was still “sensitive information related to the future of Japan’s defense capability,” a government source said.

The hypersonic glide missiles are being developed by China, Russia and the United States.

Japan’s Defense Ministry began its own research on developing the missiles in 2018, and its Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency (ATLA) lent out specifications of the weapons to defense companies, including Mitsubishi Electric.

The companies used the specifications for their bids to become Japan’s producer of the prototype missiles. Mitsubishi Electric did not win the bid.

The stolen specifications likely included such information as the range of the missile, the required level of heat resistance and propulsion. The specifications were not classified as state secrets that must be protected by the law because the capabilities of the missiles would invariably change during the development process.

But the bidding companies were cautioned to handle the specifications with care because any leaks could cause disruptions in defense operations.

The ATLA, in fact, had asked the companies that received the specifications, including Mitsubishi Electric, to sign pledges to thoroughly protect the information.

Mitsubishi Electric uncovered the cyberattack throughout an internal investigation. The hackers entered Mitsubishi Electric’s network by exploiting defects in software used in the company’s computers as well as communications equipment of affiliated companies in China, according to the investigation.

Black Tech and Tick are among the Chinese hacker groups suspected of masterminding the cyberattack.

However, some analysts have suggested that a state actor was behind the breach with the intention of targeting the defense industry or important infrastructure.

Officials from the Defense Ministry, the National Police Agency and public safety commissions discussed the cyberattack against Mitsubishi Electric at a meeting in February.

Documents distributed at that time indicated that the two hacker groups were under the control of the Chinese military, with Black Tech having close ties to a military unit based in Wuhan and Tick working with a unit based in Shanghai.

While ordinary cyberattacks, such as industrial espionage and information leakages, are classified as crimes, more serious acts can easily lead to a cyberwar between nations.

One case combining conventional warfare and cyberwarfare occurred in 2007, when Israel bombed a nuclear facility in Syria.

Israeli F-15 fighter jets destroyed the facility that had been constructed with the cooperation of North Korea. The Syrian military was rendered powerless to counter the bombing because its supposedly advanced Russian air defense system had been hacked by Israeli military personnel.

Richard A. Clarke, who served as a special adviser for cybersecurity under U.S. President George W. Bush, described the Israeli episode in one of his books as a prime example of cyberwarfare.

Cyberspace was included as a topic for the first time in the 2015 Japan-U.S. defense cooperation guidelines, and Japan is working on eventually possessing the capability to conduct cyberattacks during war.

(This article was written by Senior Staff Writer Tatsuya Sudo and Senior Staff Writer Taketsugu Sato.)

Related News

• Hacked VPN likely started Mitsubishi Electric attacks May 8, 2020
• 4 Chinese hacker groups tied to Mitsubishi Electric attacks January 22, 2020
• Mitsubishi Electric: Data on 8,122 individuals may have leaked January 21, 2020
• Mitsubishi Electric: Possible data leak from huge cyberattack January 20, 2020

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm……...

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We’re all losers in the space arms race | Lowy Institute

Nations have battled one another for strategic advantage in space for decades. Actual fighting would be a step beyond.

www.lowyinstitute.org

We’re all losers in
the space arms race

Sarah O’Connor

Nations have battled one another for strategic advantage in
space for decades. Actual fighting would be a step beyond.

Published 20 May 2020 11:30

Politics does make for unlikely bedfellows. Last month, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it had signed a joint declaration with the Republic of Burundi, whereby both agreed not to be the “first” to place weapons in space. Two weeks later Russia conducted an anti-satellite missile test using its Nudol missile system – not itself a violation of the agreement, since the system is ground-based, but it’s a potent reminder that not all space-related weaponry needs to be “placed” in space.

The media coverage around the latest test – reportedly the 10th for this system – appeared to be more concerned with the response from the newly established United States Space Force than the test itself.

Almost immediately, the US Space Command issued a statement outlining its readiness to respond to acts of aggression in defence of US interests and those of its allies in space. General John Raymond, the commander of US Space Command, said that the test demonstrated “Russia’s hypocritical advocacy of outer space arms control proposals … while clearly having no intention of halting their counterspace weapons programs”.

The space arms control proposals Raymond was referring to have been the subject of ongoing debate at the UN since the 1980s, featuring regularly as an agenda item in the General Assembly’s First Committee and the Conference on Disarmament. For more than three decades, countries have failed to negotiate a treaty on the prevention of an arms race in space, or settle on an alternative.

The last time countries came to an agreement on arms control in space was in 1967, resulting in the Outer Space Treaty. This treaty, which serves as the basis for international space law, was primarily concerned with preserving outer space for peaceful purposes. It stipulated in no uncertain terms that the deployment or placement of “nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction” in outer space was prohibited. Unfortunately, the treaty said nothing of conventional weapons, such as ballistic missiles.

This means there is currently nothing in place that precludes the development, use, or testing of conventional weapons in outer space or counterspace weapons capabilities, such as anti-satellite missiles – often referred to as ASATs.

Russia is not alone when it comes to the development and testing of counterspace weapons capabilities. There are currently four countries – Russia, China, the US and India – that have demonstrated counterspace capability, according to the Secure World Foundation’s 2020 Global Counterspace Capabilities report. Of the four, Russia is the only one that hasn’t destroyed a satellite using a ground-based system.

At least in part, Russia’s test is likely a response to the US counterspace program, its Space Force, and its recent posturing around space as a battlefield. In a speech to the Pentagon on 9 August 2018, Vice President Mike Pence referred to comments made by President Donald Trump earlier that year, in which he explicitly stated that space is “a war-fighting domain, just like … land, [and] air, and sea”, and confirmed that the US would “meet the emerging threats on this new battlefield”.

And yet, for all this talk of emerging threats, the reality is spacefaring nations have been battling one another in a race for strategic advantage in space for decades. This is especially true given the vital role space plays in ground-based military operations, providing forces with the means to conduct timely and effective operations.

As long as space is framed as a battlefield, and with no arms controls in place to prevent the use or placement of weapons in space, countries will continue to develop and test counterspace capabilities.

Space as a battlefield is not inevitable, but “you can work yourself into it”.

Yet it need not be seen as a domain for conflict. In the interest of keeping space safe, stable and operational, it is worth noting the low likelihood that ASATs would be used in an armed conflict. Already there has been a push to move away from counterspace capabilities that are physically destructive and irreversible. As Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project and a senior research fellow at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, notes, ASATs offer little in terms of military capability and strategic advantage.

Moreover, the potential chain reaction caused by the creation of space debris following such an attack would be detrimental for all involved, including neutral countries, commercial entities, and the international civil society. Given space debris begets space debris, a seemingly isolated incident can threaten all space assets in orbit and the infrastructure they support years after the fact. Consider the damage to the space environment caused by India’s ASAT test last year, which created at least 400 pieces of space debris, or the more than 3,000 pieces created when China destroyed one of its ageing weather satellites in 2007.

For its 2018–2020 cycle, the UN Disarmament Commission’s Outer Space Working Group will prepare a set of recommendations to promote the practical implementation of transparency and confidence-building measures in outer space activities. While such measures are a step in the right direction, they should not be viewed as a panacea. More needs to be done to ensure space remains accessible and operational for both military and civilian purposes.

Space as a battlefield is not inevitable, but “you can work yourself into it”, cautions Joan Johnson-Freese. So far, only France and the US have officially recognised the prospect of armed conflict in outer space, but the limited constraints on behaviour have given countries such as Russia, China and India the scope to continue to develop and test their counterspace capabilities.

Perhaps the next step is to pursue a policy of “strategic restraint”, as Johnson-Freese suggests, and make use of the transparency and confidence-building measures as a basis for developing a verifiable, and legally binding, prohibition on activities that cause harm or permanent damage to space assets. After all, we’re all losers in the space arms race.

 

[Housecarl]

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Worried Togo finds itself on front line of Sahel's jihadist war

In a makeshift bunker of sacks of rice beneath a tree, heavily-armed Togolese soldiers keep watch over villagers coming and going on foot or bike across the border with Burkina Faso. Just a dried-out river bed separates the two West African countries. Nothing dramatic, or so it would seem...

news.yahoo.com

Worried Togo finds itself on front line of Sahel's jihadist war


Célia LEBUR, AFP • May 20, 2020

1 / 7
Togo is on the front line after its northern neighbour, Burkina Faso, fell prey to the jihadist chaos that had begun in neighbouring Mali
Togo is on the front line after its northern neighbour, Burkina Faso, fell prey to the jihadist chaos that had begun in neighbouring Mali (AFP Photo/PIUS UTOMI EKPEI)

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Dapaong (Togo) (AFP) - In a makeshift bunker of sacks of rice beneath a tree, heavily-armed Togolese soldiers keep watch over villagers coming and going on foot or bike across the border with Burkina Faso.

Just a dried-out river bed separates the two West African countries.

In surrounding fields, peasant farmers are bent silhouettes, watering the sorghum and maize seeds sown before the arrival of the first rains.

Soon, clouds will chase away the fine dust of the harmattan, the desert wind that each year sweeps off the Sahara southwards to the coast and chokes the air.

Nothing dramatic, or so it would seem, ever happens at Yemboate, in Togo's far north.

Yet less than 30 kilometres (19 miles) away, over the border in eastern Burkina Faso, jihadists and militia groups have imposed their own brutal law.

Those policemen, doctors and teachers who have not fled are being hunted down and butchered.

"When I was small, we spent our time swimming in the river," says farmer Abdoulaye Mossi, leaning on his bike with a hoe, speaking to AFP before the coronavirus pandemic.

The arid channel separates his peaceful village of cob huts from a Burkinabe village on the other side.
"Fear rules today," the farmer says.

But fear does not stop people crossing between the two countries, especially on Tuesday's market day, when they sell crops and cattle.

"They're never far away," he says, of the armed movements.

"They often come to have their motorbikes repaired. They will never tell you who the jihadists are, but we know," says Mossi, part of whose family lives in Burkina Faso.

The Togolese soldiers mount checkpoints and mobile patrols of the countless cross-border tracks through the bush that enable jihadists on motorbikes to blend into the civilian population.

- Expansion south? -
After the fall of Burkinabe president Blaise Compaore in 2014, Togo's northern neighbour fell prey to the jihadist chaos that had begun in neighbouring Mali, fanned by the collapse of Libya.

Today, jihadists affiliated to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group threaten to pursue their expansion southwards in countries along the Gulf of Guinea coast -- Benin, Ghana and Ivory Coast, as well as Togo.

A year ago Benin witnessed the kidnapping of two French tourists and the murder of their guide in the Pendjari National Park.
In February, jihadists also attacked a police station near the border with Burkina Faso.

In Ivory Coast, jihadist gunmen attacked the Grand-Bassam beach resort in 2016, leaving 19 people dead.

Another jihadist group has been holing up in the Comoe national park in northern Ivory Coast for the past eight months after being pursued by Burkinabe troops.

The coronavirus pandemic has inspired no ceasefires. In Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, the number of clashes and attacks reached unprecedented levels last year.

According to local and foreign security sources, many parts of rural Ivory Coast, Togo and Benin have seen the awakening of "sleeper cells" -- people indoctrinated and trained to encourage ever more radical peaching in mosques and Koranic schools.

- Togo's fears -
"The terrorist threat is real and the pressure is very strong… we feel it a little more with each day," Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe told AFP in February, while campaigning for re-election in Dapaong, the main northern town.

Flying by helicopter from the capital Lome, 650 km to the south, the head of state touched down in what has become a "red zone" for tourists, missionaries and foreign aid personnel, whose work was cut short by a Spanish priest's murder at a Burkinabe customs post.

Togo has been spared big attacks so far, but its territory has been infiltrated and the armed forces are racing to ready for the worst.

According to confidential military documents seen by AFP, almost 700 Togolese soldiers are deployed in the northernmost Savanes region on the border with Burkina Faso, engaged in Operation Koundjoare launched in 2018.

They keep guard at an invisible border of around 100 km, with Ghana to the west and Benin to the east.

The territory serves smugglers, highway robbers and all sorts of contraband -- ivory, weapons, drugs and, above all, gold, one of the main resources of the region.

In these remote areas far from coastal towns and economically developed zones, the trappings of state are mostly absent, so wildlife parks and dense forests have become a sanctuary for the jihadists.

Less than 30 km from the border, a much feared group has seized control in Burkina Faso's Pama forest reserve.

For two years, it has launched violent raids against travellers and security forces alike.

The fighters -- linked to the Ansaroul Islam movement accused of terrorising northern Burkina Faso and central Mali -- are behind the kidnapping of several Westerners in recent years, according to French security forces.

"The north of Togo can allow jihadists to rest up after long campaigns, or to fall back by merging into the population when pressure from the other side is too strong," one of the sources said, on condition of anonymity.

- 'Culture of distrust' -
Where deep poverty prevails, winning villagers' goodwill is indispensable in the fight against jihadists.

The army provides free medical consultations, repairs damaged schools and builds wells.

"Our passage must be visible," Gnassingbe declared in Dapaong, warning the military against both "bullying" and "petty corruption".

Elected mayors and district administrators work hand in hand with religious leaders and traditional chiefs to obtain and pass on information.

Togolese authorities count on intelligence services equipped and trained by powers such as Israel, with whom Gnassingbe Eyadema, the president's father and political predecessor who ruled for 38 years, nurtured close ties.

An intelligence network intercepting communications and putting spies on buses has helped to "dismantle" several "terrorist cells", with dozens of arrests, according to the government.

Authorities claim that all those picked up are foreigners, mostly Burkinabes, who are extradited to their countries of origin.

The armed forces of Togo, Benin, Ivory Coast and Ghana have taken part in joint military operations with Burkina Faso since 2017.
"Cooperation is undermined by a culture of distrust between states," says Antonin Tisseron, an associate researcher with the Institut Thomas More, a conservative think tank.

- 'Money and motorbikes' -
Togo relies on an experienced army, which has taken part in several United Nations peacekeeping operations.
Most recruits are from the Kabye ethnic group in the north, which has served the ruling dynasty for more than half a century.

However, many people fear that the "struggle against terrorism" will also serve to silence critics of 53-year-old Faure Gnassingbe.

In power since 2005, the president has solid support from international partners led by France, despite criticism by human rights organisations of repeated abuse of political foes and activists.

Togo came through a serious political crisis in 2017 and 2018, with mass demonstrations calling on Gnassingbe to resign, particularly from the predominantly Muslim centre of the country.

Security forces cracked down hard.

"The countries of the Gulf of Guinea present many internal weaknesses," Tisseron told AFP.

"Poverty, the absence of jobs and prospects, the repression of all forms of social protest and the stigmatisation of Muslims create a breeding ground where jihadists can thrive."

Jihadists tend to infiltrate communities in stages, starting with charitable works financed by Islamic organisations abroad.

The newcomers preach a more radical form of Islam than the reputedly moderate faith long practised by about a quarter of the Togolese population and strictly monitored by the state.

"It begins with 'raising awareness' among the masses, without open confrontation with the authorities," said a Western security source.

"Once they feel strong enough, they kill the moderate preachers and then they attack police and gendarmerie posts."

Last year, a non-governmental organisation unknown to local Muslim authorities appeared in Dapaong, where Maman Amadou, the imam of the central mosque, is one of the rare religious leaders openly to challenge extremism.

"They started to preach radical Islam in about 15 villages and to build mosques," he told AFP.

"They even handed out money and motorbikes to young people. The people listened to them."

"We didn't know them and they answered none of our summons. We ended up alerting the authorities," Amadou said.

Under pressure, the organisation left town, added the imam, saying he had no more idea where they went than where they came from. "We never heard any more of them."

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[jward]

Why Open Skies Is An Old Fashioned Treaty Worth Keeping

• By Patrick Tucker Technology Editor Read bio

Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have expressed alarm about reports that the Trump administration may abandon the Open Skies Treaty. Put into effect in 2002, it allows the United States, Russia, and 32 other countries to conduct short-notice flights over one another’s territories to monitor military deployments. The pact’s defenders point out that helps NATO allies monitor Russian moves — even as technical limitations prevent Russia from making much use of the imagery for purposes of espionage. That’s part of why the treaty is worth keeping.
Rep. Eliot Engel, D-New York, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, quickly voiced his concerns. “American withdrawal would only benefit Russia and be harmful to our allies’ and partners’ national security interests,” Engel said in a Monday letter to National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien.

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Nebraska, a retired United States Air Force brigadier general, said, “The Open Skies Treaty promotes understanding, trust and stability among the 34 member nations. As a signatory to the treaty, we get valuable access to Russian airspace and military airfields on short notice… I believe the US was justified in terminating our participation in the INF treaty, but I’ve yet to see a compelling reason to withdraw from Open Skies.”
As with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the administration recently backed out of, Russia hasn’t always been a perfect party to the agreement. For years, for instance, they have restricted flights over Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave on Poland’s border; as well as over Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. Specifically, in 2014, they announced a 500-kilometer sublimit on Open Skies flights over Kaliningrad and restricted several flights to above 500 km, according to the State Department. They also denied flight access to a ten-kilometer corridor over the disputed region of Georgia, which Russia claims is part of Russia but which the international community recognizes as Georgia. The United States responded by restricting Russian flights over its territory. Engel supports the U.S. restrictions. The State Department has concluded that Russia’s moves don’t actually present an obstacle to U.S. intelligence collection over the areas. But they did determine that the Russian restrictions violated Article VI of the treaty.

Related: Let Russia’s Planes Keep Flying Over US, Just Like Ike Wanted
Related: Don’t Enshrine A Russian Advantage In Surveillance Flights Over the US
Related: Is Nothing Better than Something? Trashing These Treaties Makes No Sense

The bigger concern is that Russia gets more out of the treaty than does the United States since U.S. intelligence satellites are better than their Russian counterparts.
In 2016, Adm. Cecil Haney, then-commander of U.S. STRATCOM, testified to lawmakers, “I don’t have the Russian intelligence guidebook available to me, but I will say that given the lack of overhead capability that the Russians have, Open Skies gives them a capability to be able to reconnoiter parts of our country and other nations as part of that.”
Another concern is that technology advances in sensors and cameras could allow Russia to see more than treaty participants realize (without exactly cheating per se.)

“As we look at how technology has developed, it is not surprising to me that there would be a desire to use more advanced capabilities in order to conduct that Open Skies Treaty,” said Haney, discussing technology trends generally.
U.S. and Russian officials have disagreed about what new sensors can be used under the treaty, as Joseph Trevithick wrote in this 2018 report for The Drive.
The treaty doesn’t ban any particular type of sensor but it does limit their resolution to about 30 centimeters of ground sample distance. A United Nations explainer says,

• “Vertical and oblique optical framing cameras at 30 centimeters resolution (ground sample distance);
• Panorama cameras at 30 centimeters ground resolution;
• Thermal infrared line scanners at 50 centimeters resolution;
• Sideward looking synthetic aperture radar (SAR) at 3 meters resolution.”

That resolution number is the treaty’s “most vital limitation,” says Arthur Holland Michel, author of Eyes in the Sky. “It’s the big equation that describes the number of pixels, field of view and altitude, those factors together give you ground sample distance.” It’s a bit better than the photos you can buy today from the Maxar WorldView-3 high-resolution satellite.
Nathan Crawford of Consolidated Resource Imaging, a company that’s helping the U.S. Air Force convert the photographic intelligence it collects under Open Skies into digital format, says that the treaty doesn’t allow technological innovations to give one country more advantage than another. “We can’t get clever. It has to be provable that its to specifications,” he said. “This is a verification sensor, not an undiscovered intelligence sensor. It’s meant to verify what [the signatory nations] say [about their forces and deployments] not discover things we don’t know.”

All of the parties to the treaty can monitor the Open Skies flights, and even shut down the image collection if they want to. If an aircraft deviates off course by 5 degrees, Crawford said, a monitor needs only to push a button. “It kills the capture systems and blocks the shutters.”
It’s one reason why Haney remained a fan of the treaty. “While I am concerned in terms of overflights of any ability of another nation to learn more about our overall critical infrastructure, I do have respect for said treaty in terms of the 32-some nations that are also part of that treaty, in which it allows for transparency and the ability of sharing immediately that information that that treaty is associated with.”

Perhaps the most important thing that the treaty provides is the ability of the other countries—without fancy high-resolution intelligence satellites—to monitor Russian moves. That, perhaps, is the main reason it’s worth keeping.
Said Michael Carpenter, senior director at the Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement at the University of Pennsylvania and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia: “such concerns call for a discussion of the treaty’s pros and cons; they don’t justify a unilateral move to exit the treaty without proper consultation and deliberation with our European allies, who cannot match our ISR capabilities and very much rely on the Open Skies treaty for military transparency.”

• Patrick Tucker is technology editor for Defense One. He’s also the author of The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (Current, 2014). Previously, Tucker was deputy editor for The Futurist for nine years. Tucker has written about emerging technology in Slate, ... Full bio

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Why Open Skies Is An Old Fashioned Treaty Worth Keeping

Since 2002, the agreement has helped 34 countries to keep tabs on each others’ militaries, without divulging key secrets.

www.defenseone.com

 

[Housecarl]

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Taliban emir demands ‘Islamic government’ for Afghanistan | FDD's Long War Journal

Mullah Haibatullah, the leader of the Afghan Taliban and its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, again called for the establishment of an "Islamic government" and the imposition of the group's harsh versions of sharia.

www.longwarjournal.org

Taliban emir demands ‘Islamic government’ for Afghansitan

By Bill Roggio | May 21, 2020 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio


Mullah Haibatullah, the leader of the Afghan Taliban and its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, again called for the establishment of an “Islamic government” and the imposition of the group’s harsh versions of sharia.

Haibatullah repeated the Taliban’s demand to rule Afghanistan in his Eid-ul-Fitr statement, which was released on May 20 in English on the group’s official website, Voice of Jihad.

“The objectives of our Jihad are to gain the pleasure of Allah (SwT), freedom of our country and to establish an Islamic system. The sacrifices, hardships and tribulations endured by the people and Mujahideen in this great cause (Jihad) are not hidden from anyone …” he said.

Later, Haibatullah again repeated the call for Afghan officials, soldiers, police, and others “in the opposition ranks” to accept a “general amnesty” and not be an “impediment for the establishment of an Islamic government.”

“We are offering general amnesty to all those standing in the opposition ranks if they choose to renounce their enmity. We urge everyone to take full advantage of this amnesty by ending their opposition and not becoming an impediment for the establishment of an Islamic government which is the aspiration of millions of martyred, wounded, disabled, orphaned, widowed and suffering Afghans,” Haibatullah said.

Haibatullah attempted to assauge those who fear the Taliban seeks to dominate the political scene by claiming that “it does not have a monopolist policy.”

“[T]he Islamic Emirate once again assures everyone that it does not have a monopolist policy, every male and female member of society shall be given their due rights, none shall feel any sense of deprivation or injustice and all work necessary for the welfare, durability and development of society will be addressed in the light of divine Shariah law,” he claimed.

He stated this even thought the group’s official position is that it “has not readily embraced this death and destruction for the sake of some silly ministerial posts or a share of the power.” [See LWJ report, Taliban does not want ‘a share of the power’.]

Haibatullah’s call for his opponents to accept amnesty and his assurances that Afghans’ rights will be be handled under sharia, or Islamic law, are not the words of a leader who is seeking to integrate with the current Afghan government. The Taliban sees itself as the eventual victor in its war with the Afghan government, and its promise of amnesty for its opponents is the action of a victor. And sharia of course would be enforced by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

Haibatullah’s Eid statement is not an outlier. The Taliban’s position on who would rule Afghanistan and how has been consistent since the U.S. invaded the country to topple the Taliban regime after the 9/11 attacks on American soil.

U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad, have ignored the Taliban’s explicitly stated goals. Instead, they have sold the Feb. 29 deal with the Taliban as a “peace deal” that will lead to rapprochement between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The Taliban dissagree, and instead refer to the deal as an “end of occupation” agreement.

Just one week after the withdrawal deal was inked, the Taliban issued a religious decree, or fatwa, calling for an “Islamic government” to be formed in Afghanistan. This Islamic government is to be led by Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, its current emir, and “lawful ruler” of Afghanistan. The Taliban fatwa says the group “shall continue waging armed jihad” until it establishes the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. [See LWJ report, Taliban religious decree calls for its emir to rule ‘Islamic government’ in Afghanistan.]

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

 

[jward]

Pentagon reverses policy, will not disqualify anyone hospitalized by coronavirus from serving
By COREY DICKSTEIN | STARS AND STRIPES Published: May 21, 2020


WASHINGTON — The Pentagon’s top official for personnel issues said Thursday that he has canceled an order that seemed to bar individuals from military service if they were hospitalized with complications from the coronavirus.
Matthew Donovan, the undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, told reporters that the Pentagon no longer had a specific policy instructing the services on how to handle recruits who have been previously diagnosed with the virus. Donovan’s announcement — at least the third adjustment to the policy in recent weeks — came during a Pentagon news briefing in response to questions about a May 6 order, which temporarily stopped the services from enlisting potential recruits who spent time in the hospital with a coronavirus diagnosis.
“I have rescinded that,” he said.

The military will continue to halt recruits now experiencing symptoms or who test positive for the coronavirus from shipping to initial entrance training until they recover, Donovan said. He said he briefed some Senate Armed Services Committee members on the changes recently.
The coronavirus pandemic has led the Pentagon to halt most nonessential travel for its troops worldwide since March and forced services to severely cut the number of new recruits they send each week to basic training. Military officials have expressed confidence they would be able to make up for those recruit shipping shortfalls once restrictions are lifted.
Donovan said people who have suffered from the coronavirus will be examined by a doctor, just as any other individual attempting to enter the military would. Some of those individuals could require additional screening to ensure they did not suffer long-term effects from the virus.



Pentagon medical officials and researchers are studying the potential for the virus to cause permanent damage to the lungs and other organs, Donovan said. That research could be completed in the near future.
But Donovan said Thursday that he canceled the May 6 order, at least in part, because of its wording, which would initially bar anyone who faced any period of hospitalization from coronavirus symptoms from military service. Under that order, individuals who had been hospitalized by the virus could apply for a waiver exempting them from the policy.
“Using a term like hospitalization — that could be a doctor who kept them overnight for observation all the way to someone who was in a medically induced coma for three weeks,” he said. “That’s why it has to be taken on each individual case."

Jonathan Hoffman, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, likened any restrictions on past coronavirus victims to those who suffer other underlying conditions such as asthma.
“Asthma’s not an automatic-disqualifier, but you look at what the impact is — can the person perform the mission when they join?” Hoffman said during the same Thursday briefing. “Like any other disease or underlying condition … they would have to be examined by a physician who would make a determination whether or not they could meet the standards for the force.”

The May 6 order canceled by Donovan had replaced an even more stringent draft leaked to the news media days earlier that sought to “disqualify permanently” all individuals ever diagnosed with the coronavirus from military service.
Pentagon officials at the time confirmed the authenticity of the guidance, but they also said it was never meant to be made public.
To date, the Pentagon reported a total of 8,859 cases of coronavirus diagnoses within the military community, which includes service members, Defense Department civilian employees, military dependents and defense contractors.
Military troops made up the bulk of those cases, with 5,888 having tested positive by Thursday. Among them, 3,023 have since recovered, 129 faced hospitalization at some point, and two died of complications caused by the virus.
In addition to the two service members who died, 15 DOD civilian workers, five military dependents and eight defense contractors have died from coronavirus complications, Pentagon officials reported. Two of those deaths were reported since Monday.

dickstein.corey@stripes.com

Pentagon reverses policy, will not disqualify anyone hospitalized by coronavirus from serving

The military will continue to halt recruits now experiencing symptoms or who test positive for the coronavirus from shipping to initial entrance training until they recover.

www.stripes.com

 

[danielboon]

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[danielboon]

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Trump Claims to Have Venezuela ‘Surrounded’ as Iranian Tankers Approach

Venezuela’s armed forces will escort the vessels upon reaching territorial waters.

By Lucas Koerner
May 21st 2020 at 4.57pm
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International
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Iran-Venezuela RelationsDonald TrumpFuel/GasolineSanctions
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venezuelan_airforce.jpg

Venezuelan ships and airplanes will escort the Iranian tankers once they enter Venezuelan waters. (Military Watch Magazine)
Santiago de Chile, May 21, 2020 (venezuelanalysis.com) – US President Donald Trump issued new threats against Venezuela on Wednesday.
“We’ve got it [Venezuela] surrounded, it’s surrounded at a level that nobody even knows but they know. We are watching to see what happens,” he warned during a conference call with Hispanic leaders.

The president’s remarks come amid escalating tensions over Iranian fuel shipments to Venezuela.
Five Iranian tankers are en route to the South American country carrying at least US $45.5 million in gasoline and other products. According to maritime tracking data, the closest vessel, Fortune, is currently three days from port.
Washington is mulling unilateral sanctions aimed at halting the shipments, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
Last month, Trump ordered the mobilization of US naval assets to the Caribbean in an “anti-drug” operation targeting Venezuela described as one of the largest military deployments in the region since the 1989 invasion of Panama. The US leader had previously threatened Venezuela with a naval blockade.
Caracas and Tehran have rejected US threats against the tankers, which are estimated to contain enough fuel to supply Venezuela for around 50 days.

On Wednesday, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez revealed that naval and air assets would escort the Iranian vessels upon entering Venezuela’s territorial waters.
Venezuela is currently suffering widespread gasoline shortages, with domestic production hamstrung by US sanctions prohibiting the import of vital diluents and spare parts needed to reactivate the country’s refining capacity.
Since 2017, the Trump administration has targeted Venezuela with crushing economic sanctions, including an oil embargo blocking fuel exports to the Caribbean country as well as a blanket ban on dealings with Venezuelan state entities.
In recent months, the US Treasury Department has imposed secondary sanctions on two affiliates of Russian energy giant Rosneft, which had been carrying up to 60 percent of Venezuela’s crude output in addition to supplying diesel and gasoline.
Following the departure of Rosneft, Tehran has stepped in to provide fuel as well as technical assistance in repairing Venezuela’s largest refinery, which has been offline since last year’s nationwide blackouts. The Trump administration has likewise threatened Iran over its technical air corridor to Venezuela, calling on other countries to suspend Iranian overflight rights.

Trump Claims to Have Venezuela ‘Surrounded’ as Iranian Tankers Approach

Venezuela’s armed forces will escort the vessels upon reaching territorial waters.

venezuelanalysis.com

 

[jward]

U.S., Iran Approach Showdown Over Oil Tankers Headed for Venezuela
Trump admin weighs war against enforcing ‘max pressure’ on Iran, Venezuela

Iranian tanker near Gibraltar, July 6, 2019 / Getty Images
Adam Kredo - May 22, 2020 4:59 PM



The United States "will not tolerate continued meddling" by Iran in Venezuelan affairs, a senior Trump administration official told the Washington Free Beacon, bringing nearer the possibility of a naval confrontation between the United States and Tehran over its shipment of oil to the heavily sanctioned Maduro regime.
Five Iranian oil tankers are currently making their way to Venezuela, where they intend to bust an economic blockade established by the Trump administration on President Nicolas Maduro, whose regime has teetered on the brink of collapse since the United States deemed him the country's illegitimate leader and placed a bevy of sanctions on the regime. The tankers included in Iran's fleet are already subject to U.S. sanctions, as is the oil transported on the ships.
The situation puts the administration in a tight spot: Either it enforces its "maximum pressure" campaign on both nations or avoids sparking a wider military conflict in American waters. President Trump has been clear about his intent to enforce the Monroe Doctrine—a policy of not permitting foreign nations to intervene in the Americas—but he has not yet been confronted with a high-stakes challenge from hostile regimes so close to U.S. soil.

"The president has made clear the United States will not tolerate continued meddling by supporters of an illegitimate regime that oppresses its people, denies basic human rights, and engages in violence and repression," a senior administration official told the Free Beacon, speaking only on background about the developing conflict.
Iranian military leaders said their oil tankers would reach the Caribbean in the coming days. In response, the U.S. Navy has already deployed several ships to the area.

Both Iran and Venezuela have threatened violence if the United States intercedes in the shipment. And while the Trump administration would not telegraph any actions it may be planning, U.S. officials made clear the United States does not intend to let Iran expand its malign influence into Latin America.
Iran has emerged as one of Maduro's chief allies as U.S. economic sanctions cripple both regimes. The Iranian tankers are carrying much-needed fuel for Venezuela, which has experienced severe shortfalls due to American sanctions.
Iranian military leaders have said that they will not shy away from a military conflict with America if it seeks to interfere in the oil shipment.

"We will not tolerate any harassment," Brigadier General Amir Hatami, Iran's defense minister, said Thursday. "The Americans and others know that we will certainly not hesitate to react to this issue, and if the harassment intensifies and continues, it will certainly face a decisive response."
The United States now faces a tipping point in its standoff with both regimes as it deals for the first time with the threat of a joint Iranian-Venezuelan flotilla, which includes military vessels.
State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus told the Free Beacon the Iranian-Venezuelan partnership highlights the corruption rampant in both regimes.

"Venezuela used to produce a million barrels a day of gasoline, but now has to import it week by week from Iran," Ortagus said. "This is a sad reminder of Maduro's hopeless mismanagement. In return for Iran's assistance, Maduro's criminal organization reportedly looted nine tons of gold bars and sent them to Tehran. Venezuelans need free and fair presidential elections leading to democracy and economic recovery, not Maduro's expensive deals with another pariah state."
The senior administration official quoted above emphasized the severity of Iran carrying out operations close to American borders.

"Iran, Cuba, Russia, and the People's Republic of China are engaged in malign activities and meddling around the world," the senior administration official said. "The United States denounces their actions everywhere but especially in the Western Hemisphere, and we will not abide by their support of the illegitimate and tyrannical regime of Nicolas Maduro."
Iran maintains that the tankers are legally sanctioned and meant to provide aid to the Venezuelan people as they experience a significant fuel shortage.

"We hope that America would not commit any stupid act, otherwise, it will receive our strong response," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said this week.
Proponents of the administration's tough stance on Iran said the president must act decisively to deter Iran from increasing its footprint in Latin America.
"Iran's decision to send a five-strong fleet of sanctioned tankers carrying sanctioned petroleum to the Maduro regime is a brazen attempt to push the limits of U.S. patience," said Daniel Roth, research director at United Against Nuclear Iran, a watchdog group with close ties to the administration. "With a potential reactivation of Tehran's network of South American terror sleeper cells, now is the time to build a strong and unified coalition in the Americas against the deadly Iranian regime."




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U.S., Iran Approach Showdown Over Oil Tankers Headed for Venezuela

The United States "will not tolerate continued meddling" by Iran in Venezuelan affairs, a senior Trump administration official told the Free Beacon.

freebeacon.com

 

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In Stunning Reversal, Turkey Emerges as Libya Kingmaker (Published 2020)

With a succession of quick victories, Turkish-supported forces in Libya have rolled back the gains of a would-be strongman whose allies, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, now face tough choices.

www.nytimes.com

In Stunning Reversal, Turkey Emerges as Libya Kingmaker
With a succession of quick victories, Turkish-supported forces in Libya have rolled back the gains of a would-be strongman whose allies, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, now face tough choices.

A billboard depicting Khalifa Hifter, the commander of the Libyan National Army, in downtown Benghazi in January.Credit...Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

By Declan Walsh

• May 21, 2020

CAIRO — A string of victories by Turkish-backed forces in western Libya this week dealt a heavy blow to the ambitions of the aspiring strongman Khalifa Hifter and signaled the arrival of Turkey as a potentially decisive force among the foreign powers battling for supremacy in the Middle East’s biggest proxy war......

 

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Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center restructuring reverberates at Hill AFB

HILL AIR FORCE BASE — The Air Force is restructuring its Nuclear Weapons Center, splitting a section of the outfit in two and bringing work to Hill Air Force Base.

www.standard.net

Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center restructuring reverberates at Hill AFB

• By MITCH SHAW Standard-Examiner
• May 19, 2020

HILL AIR FORCE BASE — The Air Force is restructuring its Nuclear Weapons Center, splitting a section of the outfit in two and bringing work to Hill Air Force Base.

Headquartered at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, the center’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Systems Directorate will be divided into two new groups: the Minuteman III Systems Directorate and the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Systems Directorate, according to Leah Bryant, spokesperson with the NWC’s public affairs office. The work will be done at Hill.

Maj. Gen. Shaun Morris, commander of the NWC, said the shift was necessitated by the Air Force’s “increased focus on the modernization of the ICBM,” the third leg of the United States’ nuclear triad.

“(The restructuring) allows us to centralize some functional requirements, such as manpower and security, at a central operating location at Hill,” Morris said in a press release.

The restructuring is the latest ICBM-related move to impact Hill. The base had previously been selected as home to the Department of Defense’s nuclear missile replacement program, which will cost more than $80 billion and run for at least 30 years. The total cost of that program includes the acquisition of missiles, new command and control systems, and large-scale renovations of launch control centers. The program will replace the United States’ current land-based ballistic missile force, which is made up of some 400 Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Hill officials say the program will bring as many as 2,500 jobs to the area.

Currently being built up near Hill’s southwest border with Roy, the program will eventually include six new buildings in one base — over 1 million square feet of office and lab facilities. Completion on first 231,000 square feet is scheduled to be finished by mid-2020. In August 2019, Northrop Grumman broke ground on the Roy Innovation Center, which will serve as future headquarters for Northrop’s work supporting the program.

Col. Luke Cropsey, who will head the new ICBM directorate office at Hill, said the Minuteman III is the “most responsive leg of the nuclear triad” and work being done in the program is some of the most significant in the military. Cropsey said the ground-based missile anchors the other two legs of the triad: submarine and aircraft missiles. Launch centers are located strategically across multiple states and have more than 500 precise “aimpoints” or targets. Cropsey said a U.S. adversary would have to attack all of the locations simultaneously, making a large-scale conventional or nuclear attack on the U.S. homeland highly unlikely.

 

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Debate to relocate US nuclear weapons to Poland irks Russia

Some US officials are eyeing Poland as a new home to the US nuclear arsenal in Europe, after German Social Democrats reopened the debate about whether the country should remain under Washington’s protective nuclear umbrella. And the latest twist has already displeased Russia, Poland's mighty...

www.euractiv.com

1. Poland irks Russia

Debate to relocate US nuclear weapons to Poland irks Russia

By Alexandra Brzozowski | EURACTIV.com
May 20, 2020

Ambassador of the United States of America to Poland, Georgetta Mosbacher, speak to Polish troops in Nowy Glinnik, Poland, 05 December 2018. [EPA-EFE/GRZEGORZ MICHALOWSKI]

Some US officials are eyeing Poland as a new home to the US nuclear arsenal in Europe, after German Social Democrats reopened the debate about whether the country should remain under Washington’s protective nuclear umbrella. And the latest twist has already displeased Russia, Poland’s mighty eastern neighbour.

Germany should “exclude the stationing of US nuclear weapons in the future,” demanded in early May Rolf Mützenich, Social Democrat leader in the German Bundestag, prompting a backlash from coalition partners and German foreign minister Heiko Maas.

Mützenich’s plea was largely supported by party leaders, who saw the pacifist drive as a possible trump card for next year’s parliamentary elections, as the party is also opposing the purchase of US-made F-18 fighter planes capable of transporting nuclear warheads, one of the conditions for Germany to maintain its nuclear capacity after 2030.

SPD leadership reignites German debate on US nuclear weapons
Germany should “exclude the stationing of US nuclear weapons in the future,” Rolf Mützenich, the leader of the Social Democrats (SPD) in the Bundestag, has demanded. Foreign minister Heiko Maas has hit back, but other Socialist politicians intend to question Germany’s role in NATO’s nuclear strategy.

Richard Grenell, US Ambassador to Germany, accused the German government of not doing its part for NATO’s policy of nuclear deterrence, and the US Embassy issued a statement reminding Berlin that it had pledged to contribute to NATO capabilities and suggesting that “if Germany seeks to be a true power for peace, now is the time for solidarity”.

“Will Germany bear this responsibility, or will it sit back and simply enjoy the economic benefits of security provided by its other Allies?” the statement read.

It was also a reminder of the 2016 Warsaw Declaration in which NATO leaders stated that “the fundamental purpose of NATO’s nuclear capability is to preserve peace, prevent coercion, and deter aggression.”

During the latest debate, German security experts have described the domino effect of the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Germany.

“Germany can abandon nuclear deterrence. This forces Poland to rethink the issue of nuclear deterrence. And this motivates Russia to intensify its strategy of influence in Central and Eastern Europe. The result: more conflict in the East, Europe weakened,” Ulrich Speck, Senior Visiting Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, commented on Twitter.

Poland as substitute?
US Ambassador to Poland, Georgette Mosbacher, upped the ante and suggested that in the event that Germany should attempt to “reduce its nuclear potential and weaken NATO”, “perhaps Poland, which pays its fair share, understands the risks and is on NATO’s Eastern Flank, could house the capabilities”.

Although Warsaw has not officially sought such a solution, the possibility has been discussed since December 2015 by the then deputy defence minister and Poland’s current Ambassador to NATO, Tomasz Szatkowski.

However, the relocation of US nuclear weapons to Poland would be “expensive, militarily unwise because it would make the weapons more vulnerable to preemptive attack, unduly provocative, and divisive within NATO,” warned Steven Pifer, former US diplomat in Poland and a current non-resident fellow at Brookings’ Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative.

According to him, such a move would require the construction of a special infrastructure that would ensure the security of the equipment and specially isolated air bunkers that would have to be built in Poland.

It also would make Poland more vulnerable to being targeted and could divide NATO allies, as some members may not agree to transfer nuclear weapons to Poland.

“This was a tweet best not sent. The one thing it does do, however, is give Mr Mützenich a new talking point for removing the bombs from Germany; citing Ambassador Mosbacher, he can claim: “We can send them to Poland,” Pifer concluded.

Russia not amused
Mosbacher’s statement about the possibility of deploying US nuclear weapons in Poland drew a harsh rebuke from Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Russian MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Mosbacher wants to “talk about the possibility of bringing nuclear weapons and their infrastructure closer to the Russian borders.”

This would constitute “a violation of one of the key provisions” of the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act.

The act – a political agreement, not a legally binding treaty— committed NATO to carry out its collective defence and other missions by “ensuring the necessary interoperability, integration, and capability for reinforcement rather than by additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces” on the territories of the former Warsaw Pact states.

“We hope Washington and Warsaw are aware of the dangerous nature of this kind of expression,” Zakharova said, adding that such declarations “are still exacerbating relations between Russia and NATO, which are already going through a bad time” and “threaten the material basis of European security.”

Instead, security could be strengthened by “taking American warheads back to US territory.”

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]

EURACTIV's editorial content is independent from the views of our sponsors.

 

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https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-05-21/trump-delays-new-start-treaty-decision-calls-for-new-talks-with-russia-china

Trump Delays New START Treaty Decision, Calls for New Talks with Russia, China
The future of the last remaining international nuclear treaty rests on whether Russia can bring China to the negotiating table, the presidential special envoy for arms control said.
By Paul D. Shinkman, Senior Writer, National Security May 21, 2020

The Trump administration's top official for nuclear nonproliferation said Thursday he had begun talks with his Russia about a new arms treaty that would include China, but declined to say whether the president would renew a key treaty that expires in February.
Speaking at an event at the Hudson Institute, Marshall Billingsley, the newly appointed presidential special envoy for arms control, said in his first public remarks that he and his Russian counterpart had spoken and had agreed to meet to discuss a path forward to new negotiations.

[ READ: Trump Turns Away From Arms Treaty ]

However, he would not say that the administration has committed to extending the New START treaty, considered the last remaining international agreement governing U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons development. President Donald Trump has criticized the agreement for what his administration assesses to be Russian violations of it and the fact that it does not include China.

The treaty, signed by President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Prague in 2010, will expire on Feb. 5 – 15 days after the next presidential inauguration.

"We have concrete ideas for our next interaction and are finalizing the details as we speak," said Billingslea, a noted hawk on nuclear weapons who until earlier this year was working at the Treasury Department combating terrorist financing. "So we've settled on a venue and we're working on an agenda based on the exchange of views that has taken place."

Billingslea spoke moments after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed the U.S. plans to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty – another key agreement contributing to preventing an arms race, nuclear war or other catastrophic misunderstanding – unless Russia returns to what the U.S. considers full compliance. The Trump administration has made similar threats using treaties as leverage in the past, including the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

It was not immediately clear whether the administration's reconsideration of the two treaties in the same week was linked – though the six-month delay in leaving the Open Skies treaty aligns with the end of Trump's first term as president.

Billingslea on Thursday said a key condition for future talks is that Russia convinces China to participate in any future talks. Analysts say China historically has believed international arms talks must first take place among Russia and the U.S., as their arsenals are vastly bigger and more readily poised for war than Beijing's.

Many on Capitol Hill support renewing the U.S. commitment to the treaty.

"The potential lapse of this treaty is the most pressing arms control issue we face. Avoiding such a lapse is a top priority," Sen. Dianne Feinstein, California Democrat, said in a statement Thursday afternoon. "For four decades, Russia and the United States have avoided nuclear war and a costly arms race based on our mutual efforts to limit the production of nuclear weapons. New START's limitations on the number of deployed nuclear weapons and delivery systems and provisions for inspection and verification measures are irreplaceable and must remain in effect."

[ MORE: Treaty’s Demise Portends New Nuclear Arms Race With Russia ]

The Trump administration has faced sharp criticism for its position on the New START treaty, particularly in insisting the agreement must include China, even though it was not previously designed to address any other country's arsenals.

"It doesn't protect against fire-breathing dragons either," says Alexandra Bell, senior policy director for the disarmament non-profit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. "You should never gamble with something you are not willing to lose and we cannot afford to lose New START."

Rumors had circulated this week that the U.S. may allow the treaty to expire in an attempt to push for a new deal that also includes China, though Politico reported the administration is considering a short-term extension.

"New START isn't so much leverage as it is a life preserver, allowing us to have real-time insights into each other's strategic arsenals," Bell says. She added of the Trump administration's consideration for allowing it to expire, "It's an absolutely reckless thing to gamble away in the hopes of creating something larger."

Others said Billingslea's points were valid, but that the administration does not have the time it needs to achieve it stated goals.

"Negotiating the current treaty required more than a year with a partner we had worked with for decades. There is no possibility that we can achieve as much as we got in the New START treaty with China, a country with which we have never negotiated an arms control agreement. Additionally, the U.S. has not presented either country incentive to agree to new limits," said Thomas Countryman, a career diplomat and the undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security until 2017. "I cannot see how the condescending and accusatory tone taken today can help jump-start a serious negotiation with two countries. There would be a far higher likelihood of meeting those high goals if the U.S. simply began with the easiest step, which would be to extend New START."

"Postponing its extension does nothing to increase leverage over either Moscow or Beijing," said Countryman, now the board chairman of the Arms Control Association.

Paul D. Shinkman, Senior Writer, National Security
Paul Shinkman is a national security correspondent. He joined U.S. News & World Report in 2012 ... Read more

 

[jward]

The Amphibious Warship USS Portland Has Shot Down A Drone With Its New High-Power Laser
The successful test of the powerful laser is a major step forward for the Navy's directed energy weapons ambitions.
By Joseph TrevithickMay 22, 2020

• The War Zone

USN
The San Antonio class landing platform dock USS Portland has successfully knocked down a small drone using its new laser directed energy weapon. The ship was first spotted with the system installed as it left its homeport in San Diego California in December 2019, which The War Zone was first to report.



Navy Amphibious Warfare Ship USS Portland Spotted Heading To Sea With New Laser Turret (Updated)By Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
Mysterious Object Northrop Is Barging From Redondo Beach Is A High-Power Naval LaserBy Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone
Mysterious Laser Turret Appears On US Navy Destroyer USS DeweyBy Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone
Navy Instagram Tells China "You Don't Want To Play Laser Tag With Us" After Pacific IncidentBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone
Shadowy New Electronic Warfare System Has Been Installed On U.S. Navy 7th Fleet ShipsBy Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone
The U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet announced the test of Portland's laser weapon, which is formally known as the Laser Weapon System Demonstrator (LWSD) Mk 2 Mod 0, on May 22, 2020. The test itself took place on May 16 at an unspecified location in the Pacific Ocean. The service described the event as "the first system-level implementation of a high-energy class solid-state laser," but did not say if this was the first time that the ship has actually fired the weapon.



"The Solid State Laser Weapons System Demonstrator is a unique capability the Portland gets to test and operate for the Navy, while paving the way for future weapons systems," Navy Captain Karrey Sanders, Portland's commanding officer, said in a statement. "By conducting advanced at sea tests against UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and small crafts, we will gain valuable information on the capabilities of the Solid State Laser Weapons System Demonstrator against potential threats."

SUNDIEGOLIVE.COM CAPTURE
The mounting configuration of the laser aboard USS Portland.

Matt Hartman/Shorealonefilms.com
The weapon being moved from Northrop Grumman's facility in Redondo Beach before it was installed aboard the USS Portland in San Diego.
Northrop Grumman developed the LWSD Mk 2 Mod 0 for the Navy as part of the Solid-State Laser Technology Maturation (SSL-TM) program and delivered it to San Diego for installation on Portland in late 2019, something The War Zone was also first to report. The service had announced that the San Antonio class ship would be the first to carry this laser weapon back in 2018 and had originally planned to conduct the first at-sea tests by the end of September 2019.

USN
USS Portland fires the LWSD Mk 2 Mod 0 on May 16, 2020.
The Navy expects the 150-kilowatt class LWSD Mk 2 Mod 0 to primarily provide ships with an additional line of defense against unmanned aircraft and small boat swarms. The laser can also act as a dazzler, blinding cameras and other optical sensors. The full system can use its own integrated full-motion video cameras, which are used to track targets and aim the weapon, to conduct surveillance, as well.
The SSL-TM program is just one of four active programs that the service is working on as part of the Navy Laser Family of Systems, which will hopefully serve as stepping stones to more powerful and otherwise capable laser weapons in the future. The Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Dewey is also now equipped with what looks to be an initial version of the Optical Dazzling Interdictor, Navy (ODIN) system, another naval directed energy development that The War Zone was first to report on and that you can find out more about in this past piece.

USN
It's worth noting that this is not the first time the Navy has installed an operational laser weapon system on a ship. The interim sea base USS Ponce carried the AN/SEQ-3 Laser Weapon System (LaWS) while deployed to the Middle East between 2014 and 2017. Northrop Grumman developed the LaWS, as well as the earlier Maritime Laser Demonstrator (MLD), both of which helped inform the development of the LWSD Mk 2 Mod 0. Being in the 150-kilowatt class, the new laser weapon is significantly more powerful than the 15-kilowatt-class MLD and the 30-kilowatt-class AN/SEQ-3.
"With this new advanced capability, we are redefining war at sea for the Navy," the Portland's Captain Sanders said. This successful test is certainly an exciting step forward for the Navy's directed energy ambitions.
Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com

The Amphibious Warship USS Portland Has Shot Down A Drone With Its New High-Power Laser

The successful test of the powerful laser is a major step forward for the Navy's directed energy weapons ambitions.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Housecarl]

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Defeating terrorism in the Sahel requires all facets of government

Several interconnected conflicts are raging in several countries in the Sahel region of Africa. And yet for much of the world, this hasn’t registered as

sofrep.com

Security
Defeating terrorism in the Sahel requires all facets of government

by Steve Balestrieri
11 hours ago

Several interconnected conflicts are raging in several countries in the Sahel region of Africa. And yet for much of the world, this hasn’t registered as either noteworthy or very important. But it is, and not just to the countries involved.

Just in 2019 alone, over 4,000 people were killed in terror attacks in the Sahel.

Violence has spread throughout the region since Islamic jihadists launched a terror campaign in Mali in 2012. It has since spilled over into Niger and Burkina Faso and has crept in Chad and Cameroon, displacing hundreds of thousands. This year there are worrying signs that the conflict could even spread to some West African coastal states. The region’s borders are porous and largely unguarded and this has increased the mobility of the terror groups.

The Islamic State has several offshoot jihadist organizations claiming allegiance to its banner: ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province), ISGS (Islamic State in the Greater Sahara) IS-CAP (Islamic State Central Africa Province), and Islamic State Libya are the four biggest organizations operating in the area.

ISWAP is another name for the Nigerian terror group Boko Haram, which publicly announced its allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and ISIS in 2015. ISIS, through these different groups, has been recruiting converts in the Central African Republic, Chad, Kenya, Tanzania, and Somalia.

One such smaller group, the Islamic State in Somalia (ISS), ran afoul and has been outlawed by the al-Qaeda-linked terror group, al-Shabaab.

Poverty and social discontent are easily manipulated by these terror groups. When combined with Africa’s toxic religious unrest they create a potent pool of many willing recruits. Additionally, in most of these areas, the local governments have been neglectful at best. This has allowed al-Qaeda and the Islamic State to continue boosting their numbers.

Climate change adds further strain to the situation. About 80 percent of the farmland has been degraded and food shortages have thus increased in the semi-arid Sahel. The effects of climate change have also forced the Fulani Muslims from their traditional grazing lands. They have been migrating in search of better fortunes and taking lands through violence, further destabilizing the region.

Food shortages in the central Sahel — Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso — have gotten to where about 33 percent of the population is classified by the UN as food insecure.

In 2013, France recognized the danger of the situation and deployed about 2,000 troops to help the Malian army. The French stated aim is to prevent the creation of another Islamic State as seen in Iraq and Syria. By 2019, 4,500 French troops were on the ground. But they are stretched thin over a wide area covering nearly two million square miles. Thus they have been unable to prevent the conflicts from growing and sprouting tentacles. The number of French troops has since grown to 5,100.

With attacks on host nation military forces and civilians on the rise, French president Emmanuel Macron called for a summit of the G5 nations (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, and Mauritania) in Pau, France. He asked for European military support for the ongoing “Operation Barkhane” to prevent the entire Sahel from sinking into chaos.

The French are setting up a Special Operations task force called “Takuba,” which in Taureg means saber. Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, the Netherlands, and Portugal have all committed troops to the new French-led Task Force. The SOF task force should be operational this summer and be completely staffed by early 2021. The United States has not joined the coalition but does supply aerial support, especially surveillance drones which are invaluable for counter-terror operations.

Special Operation Task Force Takuba will have four priorities: counterterrorism, host nation force building, reestablishment of state authority, and internal Development. It will operate in the Liptako region located in the tri-border areas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. It will be headquartered near the French military base in the Nigerien city of Niamey.

The French initiative is a good start because militarily, the situation needs to stabilize. Yet, the European troops, by themselves, won’t be enough. Therefore, training the host nations’ troops tactically will go a long way. Ιntelligence-gathering and civic action efforts must also be strengthened.

Terror groups are not the only perpetrators of crimes against the local populations. Many of the African states in the region have had authoritarian rulers: Adding more military forces, especially well-trained ones, will present an opportunity, which many military leaders have taken advantage of in the past — an opportunity to answer to no one. Thus, instilling in the troops respect basic human rights, humanitarian law, and the rule of law is necessary. The military must be accountable.

At this stage, security is paramount but it is only the first step. Military forces can stabilize the current security situation, but will not address the root causes of the instability.

Social and economic reforms are as important to success as much as a military victory in the field is. Tellingly, the UN listed four of the five G5 nations among the top 10 countries that perform the lowest on the Human Development Index. (The Index takes into account life expectancy, years of schooling, Gross National Income per capita, etc.)

Furthermore, to achieve long-term success, the host nations must reintegrate themselves into these afflicted and sparsely populated areas and address the daily issues that these areas face. They have to deal with the corruption and poverty that not only cripple them but produce a breeding ground for the terror groups to recruit from. Providing job opportunities for the young gives them a clear path away from violent jihadism.

The food crisis brought about by climate change can be countered by the region’s vast and untapped water resources. Estimates calculate that just under 20 percent of the region’s irrigation potential has been developed.

Development can be supported by international funding either from organizations like the World Bank, or directly from the EU or the U.S. Nevertheless, just throwing money at the problem won’t solve any issues; rather it will likely lead to further bureaucratic corruption. Hence, funds for the region’s economic development should be tied to strict accountability provisions.

Ultimately, the people must believe that their governments are working for them and not in spite of them and that their lot will improve not by attacking neighboring regions but by working in cooperation with their governments: The Sahel countries have to stop asking the beleaguered communities to protect themselves through armed militia groups. These groups are a stopgap measure that will only stoke up more inter-communal conflict in the future.

In conclusion, the task of restoring order and bringing sustained peace in the Sahel is daunting but not impossible. It won’t be won with just drone strikes and Special Operations troops conducting counter-terror operations in the countryside. If equal emphasis is not placed on the region’s social and economic betterment, our SOF troops will be just playing “whack-a-doodle” with the terror groups in another time and place.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

Posted for fair use.....

Pak Continues Effort To Counter Indian Influence In Afghanistan: Pentagon

United States Department of Defense quarterly report to US Congress says that Pakistan continues to harbor the Taliban and associated terrorist groups in Pakistan, such as the Haqqani Network, which maintains the ability to conduct attacks against Afghan interests.

www.ndtv.com

Pak Continues Effort To Counter Indian Influence In Afghanistan: Pentagon
Pakistan continues to focus on countering Indian influence in Afghanistan and harbours the Taliban and groups such as the Haqqani Network, which have the ability to engage in violence on Afghan soil, according to a new Pentagon report.
All IndiaANIUpdated: May 22, 2020 01:43 pm IST

Washington:
United States Department of Defense quarterly report to US Congress says that Pakistan continues to harbor the Taliban and associated terrorist groups in Pakistan, such as the Haqqani Network, which maintains the ability to conduct attacks against Afghan interests.

The report is the first one to be issued since the US and the Taliban signed an agreement on February 29 to facilitate the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. It comes at a time when the US special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad has called on India to hold direct talks with the Taliban.

Pakistan continues to focus on countering Indian influence in Afghanistan and harbours the Taliban and groups such as the Haqqani Network, which have the ability to engage in violence on Afghan soil, according to a new Pentagon report.

The report by the inspector general of the US Department of Defense for the January-March quarter, issued on Monday, pointed to a continuation of Pakistan's efforts to achieve its strategic objectives in Afghanistan, including shutting out India from the war-torn country.

The report is the first one to be issued since the US and the Taliban signed an agreement on February 29 to facilitate the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.

The deal has stalled due to differences between the Taliban and the Afghan government on prisoner releases and intra-Afghan dialogue.

There was no immediate response to the report from Indian officials.

"According to the DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency], Pakistan's strategic objectives in Afghanistan continue to be countering Indian influence and mitigating spillover of instability into its territory," the report said.

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) also reported to the inspector general that "Pakistan has encouraged the Afghan Taliban to participate in peace talks, but refrained from applying coercive pressure that would seriously threaten its relationship with the Afghan Taliban to dissuade the group from conducting further violence".


The DIA also told the inspector general that "Pakistan continues to harbour the Taliban and associated terrorist groups in Pakistan, such as the Haqqani Network, which maintains the ability to conduct attacks against Afghan interests".

Indian and Afghan officials have for long accused the Taliban, particularly its sword arm, the Haqqani Network, of having close links to the Pakistani military leadership. Most of the Taliban leadership and their families continue to be based in Pakistani cities such as Quetta.

The report comes at a time when the US special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, has called on India to hold direct talks with the Taliban. However, the Trump administration's outgoing point person for South Asia, Alice Wells, said on Wednesday that it was up to India to take a call on engaging with the Taliban.

In his message in the report, Sean O'Donnell, the acting inspector general of the US department of defense, said: "The United States and Taliban agreed to a [one]-week reduction in violence prior to the signing of the agreement, but Taliban violence during the quarter overall was high.

"In January and February, both the United States and the Taliban increased operations in order to influence negotiations. In addition, while the Taliban reduced attacks against US and coalition forces, it continued to attack the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces, particularly after the signing of the agreement."

The department of defense did not provide information on Taliban-initiated attack for the January-March quarter, saying this was "sensitive" as it was part of ongoing deliberations on whether the Taliban is complying with the terms of the agreement with the US.

 

[Housecarl]

Of course we never went in with a political class intent upon winning, only on "managing the situation"....

Posted for fair use.....

Time to acknowledge reality and end America’s expensive forever-war in Afghanistan

Advocates of prolonging the war seem oblivious to this failed past when making almost the same argument today.

thehill.com

Time to acknowledge reality and end America's expensive forever-war in Afghanistan
By Daniel L. Davis, opinion contributor — 05/22/20 09:30 AM EDT 368
The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill

The Wall Street Journal editorial board warned that Trump might be goaded by the Taliban into making an “impulsive” decision to precipitously withdraw U.S. Forces from Afghanistan. The best chance for a U.S. “exit with honor,” the board claimed, was “to make clear to the Taliban that the U.S. won’t force its allies to accept a bad deal.”

However, predicting a U.S. withdrawal on a Taliban-Kabul agreement will guarantee America’s longest war continues unabated, deepening the unacceptable cost to the U.S.
Trump appears to see the situation in similar terms. He was quick to share his displeasure when he tweeted to the Journal that “we have been there for 19 years,” and thus “no, I am not acting impulsively.” Though it would be ideal if the Taliban and Afghan government could come to a sustainable peace agreement, such an outcome is not necessary for the U.S. to finally withdraw.

Before Obama’s 2009 surge in Afghanistan, there were already back-channel secret negotiations going on between the Afghan government and the Taliban’s number two leader, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. The cleric communicated that the Taliban was willing to negotiate an end to the conflict.

In January 2010, however–the same month Obama’s surge began — Baradar was captured in a joint raid conducted by the Pakistani intelligence service (ISI) and the CIA, ending any chance at negotiations.

At the time of the capture, the operation was hailed as a breakthrough and evidence of Pakistan’s willingness to work with the United States to end the war. As was later revealed, however, the ISI knew full well where Baradar had been all along and only facilitated his capture because, as a New York Times investigation revealed, “[the ISI] wanted to shut down secret peace talks that Mr. Baradar had been conducting with the Afghan government that excluded Pakistan, the Taliban’s longtime backer.”

American officials undoubtedly knew Baradar had been seeking a negotiated settlement to end the war but many top American leaders believed the ongoing surge could compel the Taliban to sue for peace once they realized they could not defeat the U.S. coalition. Washington preferred an American military victory to a less-satisfying negotiated end.

A year after Baradar's capture, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told CNN the Taliban wouldn’t sincerely negotiate until they felt “themselves under military pressure" by winter 2011. Gates said he had sympathy for those Americans who were “war-weary,” but encouraged them to have more patience. This war would end, he claimed, “essentially the same way that it ended in Iraq-with us playing a key role for some period of time.” We would be able to withdraw the U.S. military when the Afghan government was able to “keep control of their own country so that al Qaeda can no longer find a safe haven in Afghanistan.”

Gates’ words are very instructive in today’s situation.

He implied that after just a little more coercion with more military power, the Taliban would recognize it couldn’t win and be forced to sue for peace. Obama gave Gates a force of 140,000 U.S. and NATO troops and years of high-intensity kinetic operations to bring the Taliban to its knees, but the group never capitulated.

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Advocates of prolonging the war seem oblivious to this failed past when making almost the same argument today: we just need a little more time and more military effort and then we’ll have peace. That thinking was demonstrably flawed when Gates made his comments in 2011; time has only made more painfully clear how bankrupt such beliefs are.

If Trump does not act on his instincts and end this war on our terms, we will still be having this conversation in another decade, and no doubt advocates at that time will be repeating the same discredited claims. It is time we stop hoping for the unattainable while paying exorbitant prices in American blood and treasure. It’s time — finally — to leave Afghanistan.

Daniel L. Davis is a senior fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who retired in 2015 after 21 years, including four combat deployments. Follow him on Twitter: @DanielLDavis1.

 

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use.....

UN, Afghans Concerned Over Increase in Violence in Afghanistan

US special representative for Afghanistan in region to press Taliban, Afghan government to begin negotiations

www.voanews.com

UN, Afghans Concerned Over Increase in Violence in Afghanistan

May 21, 2020 10:23 PM

Video

The U.N. said this week it is “deeply concerned” about the increase in violence and civilian casualties in Afghanistan over the past six weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, is in the region to press the Taliban and the Afghan government to begin negotiations. Rahim Gul Sarwan reports from Kabul.

 

[Housecarl]

For images see article source.....

Posted for fair use.....

Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM) Weekend Summary: Week of May 16-23, 2020

The following are some of this week's reports from the MEMRI Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM) Project, which translates and analyzes content from sources monitored around the clock, among them the most important jihadi websites and blogs. (To view these reports in full, you must be a...

www.memri.org

Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM) Weekend Summary: Week of May 16-23, 2020
May 23, 2020

Special AnnouncementsNo. 917

The following are some of this week's reports from the MEMRI Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM) Project, which translates and analyzes content from sources monitored around the clock, among them the most important jihadi websites and blogs. (To view these reports in full, you must be a paying member of the JTTM; for membership information, send an email to jttmsubs@memri.org with "Membership" in the subject line.)
Note to media and government: For a full copy of these reports, send an email with the title of the report in the subject line to media@memri.org. Please include your name, title, and organization in your email.

Exclusive: Urdu Daily: One Day After Signing U.S.-Taliban Agreement In Qatar, Taliban Launched Plan For 'Large Attacks' To Take Over Kabul And Key Afghan Provinces

The following report is now a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). For JTTM subscription information, click here.
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban organization) aims to occupy Kabul and other provinces and has prepared plans for "large attacks" after President Ashraf Ghani ordered Afghan security forces to go on the offensive against them across Afghanistan, according to an Urdu daily.

Exclusive: In Eid Al-Fitr Message, Afghan Taliban Emir Emphasizes Jihad, Says U.S.-Taliban Pact Is Powerful For Establishing 'An Islamic System'

The emir of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban organization), has issued a statement greeting the people of Afghanistan and the Taliban on the occasion of Eid Al-Fitr, which marks the end of the fasting month of Ramadan.

Exclusive: British Islamist Preacher Joins New Social Network That Rewards User Activity With Cryptocurrency

A British UK-based Islamist preacher who is active on several social media platforms, including Facebook and Telegram, has recently joined the new social media app that will allow users to monetize their social media activity by awarding them in-app tokens, which can then be exchanged for cryptocurrency.

Exclusive: Senior Al-Qaeda Leader Urges Americans, Europeans To Pressure Their Governments To Withdraw Forces From Middle East – So They Can Direct Efforts To Dealing With Coronavirus Economic Crisis At Home

A senior leader of Al-Qaeda in Syria recently published an open letter to the people of the US and Europe, calling on them to pressure their governments to pull their military forces out of the Middle East. Such a move would help those countries deal with the economic aftermath of the Corona virus pandemic, he claimed.

Exclusive: Pro-Al-Qaeda Media Outlet Hails Pensacola Shooting Following U.S. Confirmation Of Al-Qaeda In The Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Culpability

Pro-Al-Qaeda media outlets reported the US Department of Justice announcement that the FBI had unlocked the encryption on the phone of the perpetrator of the NAS Pensacola shooting, and confirmed that he was tied to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Exclusive: Amid COVID-19, ISIS Supporters Step Up Efforts To Reestablish Presence On Social Media

Recent weeks have seen a spike in media activity from supporters of the Islamic State (ISIS). There has been an increase in the launching of Facebook accounts, the opening of new media outlets and increased activity by established ones, Telegram channels, and other media and propaganda ventures. It appears that ISIS supporters have been taking advantage of a reduction in the prevention activity by internet companies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Exclusive: ISIS' Weekly Editorial Condemns Leaders Of Rebel Factions In Syria For Accepting Funds, Support From Foreign Countries

On May 21, 2020, the Islamic State (ISIS) released its weekly newspaper, which included an editorial condemning the leaders of rebel and jihadi factions in Syria for accepting funds and support from foreign countries.

In Video, Al-Qaeda Leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri Criticizes 'Ugly Face' Of Atheism, 'Value-Neutral, Irreligious Western Materialism'

On May 19, 2020, Al-Qaeda's media wing released a video featuring Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri presenting the second episode of his rebuttal against atheism.

Syria-Based Al-Qaeda Affiliate Solicits Donations, Provides WhatsApp Contact

A Telegram channel affiliated with the Kurdish jihadi group Ansar Al-Islam, published a post soliciting funds for the organization. Ansar Al-Islam is one of the factions comprising the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Incite the Believers operations room that operates in Syria's Idlib region.

Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) Ramadan Outreach Campaign Emphasizes Bonds Between Locals And Foreign Fighters

In recent weeks, the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has been running an outreach campaign for residents in the rebel-held areas in northern Syria. The TIP has been promoting the campaign in recent weeks, highlighting the participation of its Uyghur members in distributing food and aid to local residents, in order to demonstrate the bond between local and foreign Muslims.

Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) In Syria Releases Photos Showing Graduation Of Mujahideen, Largest Graduating Class Of Elite Fighters

The Syrian jihadi group Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) released on Telegram two sets of photos showing the graduation of two groups of fighters, including the group's elite fighters.

Syria-Based U.S. Journalist Streams Online Interview With British Islamist Preacher, Urges Viewers To Donate On Patreon Website

A Syria-based American journalist, who runs a news outlet focusing on Islamist and jihadi fighters in Syria, conducted an interview with a British Islamist preacher. The interview was streamed live on YouTube, and included a call for viewers do donate to the news outlet via its Patreon page.

ISIS Launches Third 'Raid Of Attrition' Campaign

The Islamic State (ISIS) launched a new campaign of attacks in all of its regions of operation, dubbed "The Raid of Attrition." This is the third campaign under this title in as many years.

ISIS Releases Video Showing 'Attrition' Attacks In Iraq

The Islamic State's (ISIS) Wilayat Al-'Iraq ("Iraq Province"), released a lengthy video detailing the group's "attrition" operations in Iraq against the Iraqi military and security forces and fighters from the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU).

Pro-ISIS Telegram Channel Publishes Series Of Posters Highlighting ISIS Threats Against U.S., Europe, And Jews

A pro-Islamic State (ISIS) Telegram channel published a series of posters highlighting ISIS's intention to attack the U.S, Europe, and Israel and praising ISIS's recently launched "Raids Of Attrition" campaign.

ISIS Editorial Claims Iraqi Army Is On The Brink Of Defeat, Lists Factors Including Decline Of U.S. Logistics Support, Political Crisis, And Internal Conflict Between Shi'ite Militias

The Islamic State (ISIS) released its weekly newspaper which included an editorial claiming that the Iraqi army is on the brink of defeat, and that its soldiers are psychologically defeated. The editorial lists several factors which have contributed to its claim, including the retreat of U.S. logistical support, the current political crises, shortages in funding, and the internal conflict between Shi'ite militias.

In Weekly Newspaper, ISIS Claims Katyusha Rocket Attack On Three Libyan National Army Outposts

The Islamic State's (ISIS) weekly Arabic-language newspaper published a report claiming responsibility for a Katyusha rocket attack on three military outposts of the Libyan National Army.

ISIS Supporters Deny Reports Linking ISIS To Attack On Afghanistan Maternity Clinic, Suggest Targeting Journalists Who Spread Such News

On May 13, 2020, Islamic State (ISIS) supporters and active users of an ISIS-operated Rocket.Chat published posts condemning journalists who link ISIS to the attack on a maternity clinic in Kabul, Afghanistan, suggesting instead that the journalists who spread such news be targeted.

ISIS Claims Killing Of French Soldier In Mali

An issue of the Islamic State (ISIS) weekly published a report detailing the group's operations in Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyah ("West Africa Province"), and saying that two ISIS fighters clashed with a French force in Mali and killed at least one French soldier.

Jihadi Social Media – Account Review (JSM-AR): ISIS Man Hacks Into Facebook Account Of British Woman, Shares Pro-ISIS Content Including Pledge Of Allegiance To ISIS Leader

It appears that a pro-ISIS man gained access to the Facebook account woman living in the U.K. and changed the password so she could longer use it. The account praises ISIS and posts photos of a person wearing a hijab.

Jihadi Social Media – Account Review (JSM-AR): On Facebook, Canadian Man Posts Speeches By Al-'Awlaki, HTS Leader Al-Joulani, Retweets Posts Eulogizing Syrian Mujahideen

A Facebook users posts in favor of the mujahideen in Syria, and in particular he appears to be pro-Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). He has shared a few videos from Bilal Abdul Kareem, a Syria-based American media activist who runs the pro-HTS On The Ground News platform, as well as a speech by HTS leader Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani.

Jihadi Social Media – Account Review (JSM-AR): Telegram Channel Posts Letters From Female ISIS Supporters In Al-Hol Camp In English, French, German, Malay, Arabic, Gives Swedish, Dutch Phone Numbers

Female Islamic State (ISIS) supporters detained in the Al-Hol Camp, many of whom are widows of slain ISIS fighters, wrote letters asking for money, which were published on a pro-ISIS Telegram channel.

 

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use.....

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #45: Drones and Explosives Seized in Puebla, Mexico by Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) and Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional (SEDENA) | Small Wars Journal

Search and seizure operations were conducted by Mexican federal agencies in San Andrés Cholula, Puebla state on 25-26 April 2020 due to an anonymous tip. These operations resulted in the seizure of a ‘terrorist arsenal’ (arsenal terrorista) of weapons and equipment including the components...

smallwarsjournal.com

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #45: Drones and Explosives Seized in Puebla, Mexico by Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) and Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional (SEDENA)
by David Kuhn, by Robert Bunker, by John P. Sullivan | Thu, 05/21/2020 - 6:09pm |

Search and seizure operations were conducted by Mexican federal agencies in San Andrés Cholula, Puebla state on 25-26 April 2020 due to an anonymous tip. These operations resulted in the seizure of a ‘terrorist arsenal’ (arsenal terrorista) of weapons and equipment including the components required to make weaponized drones. This arsenal is thought to be linked to ongoing organized crime bombings in Guanajuato state—with possible Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL) ties—and represents one more data point concerning the growing weaponized drone capabilities of the Mexican cartels and criminal gangs.

Agencia de Investigación Criminal (AIC) agents of the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) raid a residence in San Andrés Cholula containing explosives and weaponry. FGR Photo (ESPECIAL) Reposted at: https://www.milenio.com/policia/indaga-fgr-terrorism-hallar-c4-puebla

.​

Key Information: Rubén Mosso, “FGR asegura explosivos y drones en Puebla; investiga terrorismo.” Milenio. 3 May 2020, FGR halla explosivos; indaga por terrorismo

:

La Fiscalía General de la República (FGR

) inició una carpeta de investigación por presuntos delitos de delincuencia organizada con la finalidad de cometer terrorismo, ya que tras diversos cateos en Puebla aseguró la sustancia explosiva conocida como C4, material que posiblemente tiene relación en ataques como el ocurrido en mrzo en Guanajuato un coche bomba explotó en Celaya

…
Durante el 25 y 26 de abril, personal ministerial de la FGR, con el apoyo de la Coordinación de Métodos de Investigación de la institución y de la Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional, realizó varios cateos.
En estos se halló sustancia explosiva conocida como C4, dictaminada así por peritos de la Coordinación General de Servicios Periciales de la Fiscalía; pólvora, esferas conocidas como crisantemos, tres drones y dos controles para vehículo volador no tripulado (dron).
Asimismo, un arma de fuego corta y una larga; tres cargadores, 517 cartuchos de diversos calibres y 100 casquillos también de distintos calibres. Se aseguraron además siete teléfonos celulares y 53 tarjetas SIM; tres equipos de radiocomunicación, tarjetas de circuitos integrados, una caja con pirotecnia, así como cableado y distinta documentación, entre otros objetos.

Key Information: Rubén Mosso, “Indaga FGR terrorismo tras hallar C4 en Puebla.” Milenio. 4 May 2020, FGR halla explosivos; indaga por terrorismo

:

…El pasado 22 de abril, la Subprocuraduría Especializada en Investigación de Delincuencia Organizada, inició la indagatoria a raíz de una denuncia anónima en la que se mencionaron diversos hechos que pudieran constituir el delito de delincuencia organizada con la finalidad de cometer terrorismo y realizó el cateo de tres domicilios en el municipio de San Andrés Cholula, Puebla, donde halló el explosivo, armas, cartuchos y equipo de comunicación…

Key Information: “Aseguran en Puebla drones y explosivos para realizar actos terroristas.” Telefono Rojo. 3 May 2020, Aseguran en Puebla drones y explosivos para realizar actos terroristas

:

CIUDAD DE MÉXICO.— Elementos de la Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) aseguraron drones y explosivos en tres cateos en San Andrés Cholula, Puebla, presumiblemente para realizar actos terroristas.
De acuerdo a un comunicado, desde el pasado 22 de abril, la Fiscalía General de la República (FGR), a través de la Subprocuraduría Especializada en Investigación de Delincuencia Organizada (SEIDO), inició investigaciones con motivo de una denuncia anónima presentada el mismo día, en la que se mencionaron diversos hechos que pudieran constituir el delito de delincuencia organizada con la finalidad de cometer terrorismo.
El 25 de abril del año corriente, a petición del Ministerio Público Federal (MPF), un Juez de Control del Centro Nacional de Justicia Especializado en Control de Técnicas de Investigación, Arraigo e Intervención de Comunicaciones, autorizó la realización del cateo en tres domicilios ubicados en San Andrés Cholula, Puebla…

Key Information: Edmundo Velázquez, “FGR investiga si el Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima maquilaba artefactos explosivos en San Pedro Cholula.” Periodico Central. 1 May 2020, FGR investiga si el Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima maquilaba artefactos explosivos en San Pedro Cholula

:

La Fiscalía General de la República, a través de la Subprocuraduría Especializada en Investigación de Delincuencia Organizada (SEIDO), investiga la relación del Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima con la fabricación de supuestos explosivos en San Pedro Cholula…
Al parecer los materiales que fueron encontrados en San Pedro Cholula coinciden o son similares a los que se usaron para la explosión ocurrida el pasado 7 de abril, en Celaya, Guanajuato, un auto con explosivos detonó justo antes del puente Tres Guerras. El fuego alcanzó gran parte de un terreno baldío. De forma preliminar no se reportaron personas heridas.
Además, el 9 de marzo se dio el incendio de un vehículo en el estacionamiento de las instalaciones de la Feria de Celaya, que funciona como cuartel de la Guardia Nacional, en la comunidad de Los Mancera, en Celaya, Guanajuato.

Key Information: “FGR secures bombs and drones for terrorism, in Cholula.” EN24. 4 May 2020, Homepage – Infinite Scroll

:

The Attorney General of the Republic (FGR) disclosed the balance of the operations carried out last weekend in different parts of the municipality of San Andrés Cholula, where he made sure explosive material type C4, firearms, chargers, homemade bombs and drones.
Through a statement, it was reported that on April 22, through the Specialized Office of the Special Prosecutor for Organized Crime Investigation (SEIDO), the investigations began on the occasion of an anonymous complaint filed the same day for the crime of organized crime for the purpose of terrorism.
Subsequently, on April 25 at the request of the Federal Public Ministry, a Control Judge of the National Center for Justice Specialized in Control of Investigative Techniques, Rooting and Communications Intervention, authorized the carrying out of searches in three addresses located in San Andrés Cholula…

Who: Organized crime members—likely a Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL) Cell but no official announcement from the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) has been released.

What: Three drones, two controllers, explosives (C4, gunpowder, and mortar bomb fireworks known as ‘chrysanthemums’), seven cell phones, fifty-three SIM cards, three radio communications sets, integrated circuit boards, wiring, documents, two firearms, and ammunition were seized. No detainees were reported being arrested in the raids.

When: 25-26 April (Saturday and Sunday) 2020.

Where: Three addresses in the municipality of San Andrés Cholula, Puebla state, Mexico were raided.

Why: Searches and seizures were conducted by the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR; Attorney General) along with the Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional (SEDENA; Army) as part of an ongoing investigation. These operations were linked to investigations related to earlier bombing attacks in Guanajuato state with the raid of the ‘terrorist arsenal’ seized resulting from an anonymous tip.

Analysis

Derived from the key information highlighted in this note, Mexican federal authorities raided three residences in San Andrés Cholula, Puebla state on 25-26 April 2020 resulting from an anonymous tip. The tip had been provided on 22 April with search warrants authorized by a Federal judge on 25 April with the raids being conducted on 25-26 April. Those individuals targeted in the raids—who were not reported to have been captured—were suspected of being linked to recent organized crime bombings in Guanajuato state that have included both improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and crude anti-personnel car bombs (e.g. VBIEDs) used primarily meant to ward off Federal agents rather than killing or injuring them.[1] One of the specific links mentioned was to the March 2020 Celaya car bombing tied to the type of explosive, which was C4, utilized.[2]

An operational cell of one of the perpetrators of those incidents—the Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL)—is suspected as being the target of these raids. Numerous items and artifacts were seized from the residences raided by the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) and the Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional (SEDENA) including firearms, ammunition, documents, cell phones and SIM cards, and radio communication sets. Additionally, the components required to construct weaponized drones were also seized during the raids. These components included three drones, two controllers, wiring, integrated circuit boards, and a cache of explosives (including C4, gunpowder, and mortar bomb fireworks).[3]

In regards to the weaponized drone components seized, the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) released the following message along with these four images on their Twitter account on 3 May 2020:

Source: Fiscalía General de la República, FGR México (@FGRMexico), Twitter. 3 May 2020,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257016365287911426

View: https://twitter.com/FGRMexico/status/1257016365287911426?s=20


.

The text in the tweet translated from Spanish are as follows:

The [Fiscalía General de la República] #FGR secured explosives through searches in #Puebla with the support of the [Coordinación de Métodos de Investigación] #CMI and the [Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional] @SEDENAmx;

and continue the investigation. In the searches it was possible to secure radio communication equipment, drones and firearms, among other objects.

More detailed screen shots of the released images follow:

Image 1. Source: FGR México (@FGRMexico), Twitter. 3 May 2020,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257016365287911426

View: https://twitter.com/FGRMexico/status/1257016365287911426/photo/1


.

Image 2. Source: FGR México (@FGRMexico), Twitter. 3 May 2020,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257016365287911426

View: https://twitter.com/FGRMexico/status/1257016365287911426/photo/2


.

Image 2A – Professional 4-1/2-in. Mortar shell.

Continued.....

 

[Housecarl]

Continued.....

For Forensic Purposes. Source: David A. Kuhn.​

Image 3. Source: FGR México (@FGRMexico), Twitter. 3 May 2020,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257016365287911426

View: https://twitter.com/FGRMexico/status/1257016365287911426/photo/3


.​

Image 4. Source: FGR México (@FGRMexico), Twitter. 3 May 2020,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257016365287911426

View: https://twitter.com/FGRMexico/status/1257016365287911426/photo/4


.​

A basic analysis suggest the following elements of information can be obtained from this imagery:

Image 1: The two drones in the foreground are DJI Inspire 2 quadcopters, while the left rear quadcopter drone is a DJI Phantom 2. This is one of the earlier models in the DJI Phantom series. The Inspire 2 quadcopters, however, are current production models and a significant step-up in price than the Phantom series. The edges of two controllers can be seen in background at the top of the photo. A circuit board has been installed to the top of each drone with wires emanating from it along with an antenna.

The reader will note that all three drones in Image No. 1 are equipped with pylons (payload) that are mounted perpendicular to the axis of normal flight. Based upon the drone dimensions, these pylons are approximately 10-inches in length. Looking at the items seized, it appears that the pyrotechnic shells that are shown in Image No. 2 are the target payload that was destined to be carried by these drones.

Image 2: The items shown within the box in Image No. 2 are the top sections of five 4-inch professional fireworks mortar shells. These shells are designed to be launched from a ground mounted mortar tube and explode at an altitude from 250-ft. to slightly greater that 400-ft. above ground level in a colored star-burst pattern. The diameter of the star-burst of the 4-inch shell will be approximately 350-feet (106.6-meters).

Image 2A shows the full profile of a typical 4-in. fireworks shell. The truncated shape below the sphere houses a black powder charge that propels the shell from the mortar. It is likely that the operators would ultimately remove this charge completely as it would interfere with potential targeting. Attached to each of the five shells is a 3-ft. length of quick-match. While the quick-match is similar in appearance to a fuze, its burn rate is much faster. Normal fireworks time fuze burns at a general rate of .25 inches per second or 12 ft./ min. Quick-match, however, burns at a very fast rate of 120-inches per second (7,200-ft./sec.). This burn rate is designed to speed up ignition during professional fireworks displays while providing a safe firing distance to the operator igniting the guns (mortars).

Attached to each of the five shells is a 3-ft. length of quick-match. While the quick-match is similar in appearance to a fuze, its burn rate is much faster. Normal fireworks time fuze burns at a general rate of .25 inches per second or 12 ft./ min. Quick-match, however, burns at a very fast rate of 120-inches per second (7,200-ft./sec.). This burn rate is designed to speed up ignition during professional fireworks displays while providing a safe firing distance to the operator igniting the guns (mortars).

Image 3: The box that is shown in Image No. 3 appears to be a shipping container for pyrotechnics similar to those that are described above. Enhancement of the photograph revealed both English and Chinese characters printed on the packing/sealing tape. Some of the pixelated area of the photo are Customs declarations placards in addition to other shipping identification on the box. Enhanced photographic analysis of the type of cardboard used in the construction of the box itself indicates that it was produced in either China, Taiwan, or Korea. The wood shavings within the box are consistent with the type of packing that is normally used for professional fireworks shipments.

Image 4: The circuit board that has been used here is a stock circuit package that is normally used as an on-board command circuit for the operation of an individual quadcopter style drone. It appears that its configuration is in an auxiliary command circuit role to both deploy and potentially begin initiation of a payload; and will draw its operational power from the drone’s primary battery or from one of the two Ni-Cad. battery packs shown in the foreground of Image No. 1.

Since this circuit is originally designed to be encased, the power leads must be secured outside of the fuselage. The communication antenna is attached directly to the BNC, or similar type connector, on the board itself. The operational frequency of this auxiliary board will also be in the low gigahertz range. One inherent weakness of this type of configuration is that it must stay dry. Any moisture, including very light rain, would result in a malfunction.

Analysis

It appears in all respects that these three drones, as configured with the auxiliary C2 circuits and the attached pylons, were in the process of being set up to drop one or more of the 4-inch pyrotechnic shells on an unknown target. The process of configuring the drones for this type of operation requires fuzing, method of stores release (pylon), and command and control that will involve overlapping frequencies. In the case of frequency assignment, there are already two frequencies present in the operation of each drone. Command/control and video is transmitted over 2.4 GHz. There is additionally a 5.8 GHz ‘Bluetooth’ type link that is used to control the camera and gimble. The operator of these drones is now adding on an auxiliary C2 board that operates on an additional frequency, the bandwidth of which is likely to be quite close to the operational frequency of the drone that it is attached to.

Keeping the frequencies from interfering with one another is just part of the overall technical burden. Additionally, there is a CG (center of gravity) problem to solve in attaching more than one payload package to each drone. While the drone’s on-board microprocessor will be able to correct flight attitude for some level of CG anomalies, it cannot compensate for extreme disparity in CG within the central axis of the aircraft. There are additional technical issues that will not be addressed here due to security reasons.

The important takeaway, however, is that there are ways of overcoming all of these problems and it appears that the operators would not have equipped all three drones with auxiliary circuits and stores pylons were they not confident that they had solved the majority of them in a reliable manner.

All of the evidence present indicates that the designers/operators were planning to use these drones and their payload to communicate a threat to public officials (i.e., a politician, judge, prosecutor, or potentially even a member of law enforcement).

The preparation of three drones may have been completed for any of the following reasons:

1. Preparing for a simultaneous attack on three separate targets.
2. Preparing for an attack on a single target using more than one drone.
3. An attack using more than one drone, but keeping one in reserve for backup.

If you consider that the visually spectacular starburst that one would observe at altitude during a professional fireworks display would now be going off at ground level, it would certainly get someone’s attention. While this payload is a pyrotechnic, it should not be taken lightly. Historically, professional fireworks shells such as these have maimed and killed a number of persons through a lack of respect and misuse.

A 4-inch shell detonating at ground level could be lethal at very close range and could also start fires if flammable material is present. Window glass could also be cracked and/or blown out from the concussion, depending upon the location of detonation.

All of the armed (payload carrying) cartel drones that have been observed previously in these regions were designed to land on, or near, a target and detonate. Hence, the drone has become an integral part of the guided weapon and will be ultimately be destroyed when detonation occurs. The designers of these modified drones appear to have devised a payload delivery system, which, while technically difficult, would spare the weaponized drone for reuse in a potential future attack.

Of increasing concern related to the above seizures is the recent collateral proliferation of weaponized drone use in Mexico as a new phenomena since November 2017—with two earlier incidents confirmed[4]—along with a resumption of car bombings taking place over the last year or so, albeit within geographically limited regions of the country.[5] As the Mexican crime wars and criminal insurgencies continue unabated—with record breaking homicide rates evident in 2019 and now into 2020, even in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic[6]—the use of such ‘terrorist-like’ weaponry may further signify that a more sanguine phase of conflict has now been entered. Such potentials do not appear lost on Mexican federal officials. Their choice of the term ‘terrorist arsenal’ (arsenal terrorista) related to this incident may signify that the use of ‘narco terrorism’ (narcoterrorismo) narratives to describe what is taking place is no longer as politically unacceptable as it once was.[7]

Sources

Rubén Mosso, “FGR asegura explosivos y drones en Puebla; investiga terrorismo.” Milenio. 3 May 2020, FGR halla explosivos; indaga por terrorismo

.

Rubén Mosso, “Indaga FGR terrorismo tras hallar C4 en Puebla.” Milenio. 4 May 2020, FGR halla explosivos; indaga por terrorismo

.

“Aseguran en Puebla drones y explosivos para realizar actos terroristas.” Telefono Rojo. 3 May 2020, Aseguran en Puebla drones y explosivos para realizar actos terroristas

.

Edmundo Velázquez, “FGR investiga si el Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima maquilaba artefactos explosivos en San Pedro Cholula.” Periodico Central. 1 May 2020, FGR investiga si el Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima maquilaba artefactos explosivos en San Pedro Cholula

.

“FGR secures bombs and drones for terrorism, in Cholula.” EN24. 4 May 2020, Homepage – Infinite Scroll

.

End Notes

[1] Alma Keshavarz and Robert J. Bunker, “Mexico: Another Car Bomb Explosion Near National Guard in Celaya, Guanajuato.” OE Watch. May 2020: 89 and Alma Keshavarz and Robert J. Bunker, “Car Bomb Explodes Outside National Guard Headquarters in Celaya, Guanajuato.” OE Watch. April 2020: 77. See also Robert J. Bunker, David A. Kuhn and John P. Sullivan, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #42: Car Bomb in Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato with Remote Detonation IED (‘Papa Bomba’) Payload.” Small Wars Journal. 7 January 2020, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/a...aseo-el-alto-guanajuato-remote-detonation-ied.

[2] Rubén Mosso, “FGR asegura explosivos y drones en Puebla; investiga terrorismo.” Milenio. 3 May 2020, FGR halla explosivos; indaga por terrorismo

. Another source also ties the C4 explosives recovered to a 7 April Celaya car bomb detonated by a bridge. See Edmundo Velázquez, “FGR investiga si el Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima maquilaba artefactos explosivos en San Pedro Cholula.” Periodico Central. 1 My 2020, FGR investiga si el Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima maquilaba artefactos explosivos en San Pedro Cholula
.

[3] No imagery or further mention of the C4 explosives recovered in the raid have been released by the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) linking the Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL) to the March and April 2020 Celaya, Guanajuato bombing incidents. It is assumed this is for operational security reasons to protect ongoing investigations and to protect FGR intelligence and forensics tradecraft.

[4] Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #35: Weaponized Drone/UAV/UAS Seized in Valtierrilla, Guanajuato with Remote Detonation IED (‘Papa Bomba’) Payload.” Small Wars Journal. 23 November 2017, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/mexican-cartel-tactical-note-35 and John P. Sullivan, Robert J. Bunker and David A. Kuhn, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #38: Armed Drone Targets the Baja California Public Safety Secretary’s Residence in Tecate, Mexico.” Small Wars Journal. 6 August 2018, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/a...d-drone-targets-baja-california-public-safety.

[5] For car bombing context and past patterns of use, see Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, Cartel Car Bombings in Mexico. The Letort Papers. Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute. 16 August 2013, Cartel Bombings in Mexico

. For recent patterns of use, see Robert J. Bunker, David A. Kuhn and John P. Sullivan, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #42: Car Bomb in Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato with Remote Detonation IED (‘Papa Bomba’) Payload.” In Note 1.

[6] “Mexico set another record for homicides in 2019.” Business Insider. 23 January 2020, Mexico set another record for homicides in 2019

and David Agren, “Mexico murder rate reaches new high as violence rages amid Covid-19 spread.” The Guardian. 3 April 2020, Mexico murder rate reaches new high as violence rages amid Covid-19 spread
.

[7] See the following FGR press release on the investigation by the FGR special prosecutor for organized crime, Subprocuraduría Especializada en Investigación de Delincuencia Organizada (SEIDO) for an illustration of the use of ‘terrorism’ to describe criminal cartel and gang activity. “Comunicado FGR 130/20. La FGR aseguró explosivos mediante cateo en Puebla y continúa con la investigación.” Fiscalía General de la República (FGR). Press Release. 3 May 2020, https://www.gob.mx/fgr/prensa/comunicado-fgr-130-20-la-fgr-aseguro-explosivos-mediante-cateo-en-puebla-y-continua-con-la-investigacion?idiom=es

.

Significance: Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL), Cartel Technology, Drones, Improvised Explosive Device (IED), Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs), Weaponized Drone, Weaponized Unmanned Aerial System (UAS)

Additional Reading

Robert J. Bunker, David A. Kuhn and John P. Sullivan, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #42: Car Bomb in Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato with Remote Detonation IED (‘Papa Bomba’) Payload.” Small Wars Journal. 7 January 2020.

John P. Sullivan, Robert J. Bunker and David A. Kuhn, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #38: Armed Drone Targets the Baja California Public Safety Secretary’s Residence in Tecate, Mexico.” Small Wars Journal. 6 August 2018.

Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #35: Weaponized Drone/UAV/UAS Seized in Valtierrilla, Guanajuato with Remote Detonation IED (‘Papa Bomba’) Payload.” Small Wars Journal. 23 November 2017.

John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker, “Mexican Cartel Strategic Note No. 18: Narcodrones on the Border and Beyond.” Small Wars Journal. 28 March 2016,

Robert J. Bunker, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #21: Cartel Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).” Small Wars Journal. 1 August 2014.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

Posted for fair use.....

Trump seizes a new cudgel to bash China: Taiwan

But even the Trump administration is willing to upgrade ties only so far, fearing Beijing’s wrath.

www.politico.com

foreign policy
Trump seizes a new cudgel to bash China: Taiwan
But even the Trump administration is willing to upgrade ties only so far, fearing Beijing’s wrath.

By NAHAL TOOSI and LARA SELIGMAN
05/21/2020 07:10 PM EDT

As Taiwan’s president was inaugurated for a second term this week, Trump administration officials had some choices to make: How do they congratulate her? Which U.S. official does what?

And, above all, how much do they stick it to the Beijing government in the process?

They ultimately went with a mix: A State Department official and a top White House aide sent video messages for the event, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo opted for a written statement in advance and some public remarks afterward. The U.S. also announced a potential deal to sell torpedoes to the island, whose disputed political status has long been a fraught subject of U.S.-China relations.

But President Donald Trump himself has yet to publicly weigh in.
So far, the maneuvering has appeared to be aggressive enough to inspire both Taiwanese gratitude and Chinese rhetorical backlash; Beijing has threatened “necessary measures in response” to America’s expressions of congratulations. But — for now at least — the Trump team’s tactics also have been restrained enough to keep tensions from spiraling out of control.

The Trump administration’s approach to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s Wednesday inauguration in illustrative of its broader strategy toward an authoritarian government in Beijing that it views as a long-term threat to U.S. dominance: Push Chinese Communist Party leaders hard, but not to the point of diplomatic rupture or open warfare.

china
U.S. says China undermining commitment to keep Hong Kong semi-autonomous

By OWEN CHURCHILL | SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST and STUART LAU | SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
It is a tactic that has been pursued with added vigor in recent months as the coronavirus pandemic has hardened differences between U.S. and China, while giving Taiwan — which has seen just seven deaths since the outbreak began — something to boast about. For better or worse, Taiwan — whose democracy the Trump administration openly supports, but whose independence it does not — has become a useful cudgel for the United States.

“No Taiwan official is going to turn down some expression of help that’s offered on a silver platter from the United States,” said Daniel Russel, a former senior Asia hand in the Obama administration. He added, however, that Taiwan’s leaders have “very mixed feelings. Without a doubt, they harbor a great fear of being used as a pawn or a chip.”
The relationship between Washington and Beijing has been on a downward slope for years, and it has grown increasingly ugly under Trump because of a tariff-driven trade war he launched over his belief that China was taking advantage of America on the economic front.

The coronavirus pandemic emerged in China late last year, and Taiwan, thanks to its past experiences with infectious diseases in the region, recognized the danger early. Its technocrat-driven response has severely limited the outbreak on its soil, and it has since touted its success as a counterpoint to Chinese stumbles. Taiwan has, among other moves, sent face masks to other countries, including the U.S. — part of a “mask diplomacy” strategy that Beijing also has used.

The U.S. has seized on Taiwan’s success as a hammer with which to hit China.

The Trump administration recently called on the World Health Organization to allow Taiwan to participate in meetings of the World Health Assembly, its main decision-making body, under observer status. The assembly met this past week, without the Taiwanese being permitted a role amid Chinese resistance. And America’s push for Taiwan’s inclusion was somewhat ironic given Trump’s own recent threats to quit the World Health Organization.

Still, the Trump administration clearly thought the effort was worth it to put Beijing on the spot.

“The [People’s Republic of China’s] spiteful action to silence Taiwan exposes the emptiness of its claims to want transparency and international cooperation to fight the pandemic, and makes the difference between China and Taiwan ever more stark,” Pompeo said in a statement.

“Taiwan is a model world citizen,” he added, “while the PRC continues to withhold vital information about the virus and its origins.”

The Trump administration is also using Taiwan as a weapon in its battle with China over 5G wireless technology.

trade
China-U.S. diplomatic back channels dry up, making communication harder

By JUN MAI | SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, WENDY WU | SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST and ADAM BEHSUDI

Earlier this week, American officials heralded an announcement by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, one of the world’s leading computer chip makers, that it would build a factory in Arizona. The next day, the Commerce Department announced a rule change that could bar Chinese tech giant Huawei from doing business with TSMC and other global chip manufacturers.

The U.S. and Taiwan do not have formal diplomatic relations, and officially the U.S. has a One China policy that recognizes the regime in Beijing as the government of China. But the U.S. and Taiwan maintain strong unofficial relations, as well as robust economic ties, and it is U.S. policy to help Taiwan defend itself against Beijing.

In the transition period before he took office, Trump agreed to speak to the Taiwanese president, a deviation from diplomatic norms that, while probably not part of a calculated strategy on Trump’s part, stunned Asia watchers. That incident aside, Trump aides have long seen bolstering Taiwan as critical to their pressure campaign on China’s communist leaders.

Perhaps nowhere has the effort to strengthen ties been clearer than in the military-to-military realm.

Last year, the Trump administration greenlit a controversial F-16 fighter jet sale and a $2.2 billion package of M1A2T Abrams tanks and portable Stinger anti-aircraft missiles that infuriated Beijing.

In keeping with the increased push for weapons sales to Taiwan, the State Department on Wednesday approved a possible sale of 18 submarine-launched torpedoes for $180 million. The proposed sale will serve as a “deterrent to regional threats,” the department said.

As China aggressively builds up its military capability, even signaling an increased willingness to attack Taiwan, U.S. officials are now pushing to normalize weapons sales, sell more advanced equipment and even potentially begin conducting joint naval exercises with the island — all moves sure to further enrage Beijing.

Some of the moves have been fueled by the coronavirus pandemic, which has “clarified” the competition with China in the public sphere, said Elbridge Colby, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense. “Covid has made it clear that we are in a situation of competition … to the American people,” he said.

Randall Schriver, who served as assistant secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific affairs until January, predicted that Washington will seek to help Taipei further modernize its military, potentially with additional sales of coastal missile defenses, spy drones and other intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.

“This was the trajectory that was already planned,” Schriver said. “The recent experience with coronavirus is an accelerant to some of those plans.”

Officials have also considered enhanced training, including possible joint naval exercises, as a counter to the growing threat from Beijing, Schriver said. Aside from training associated with major foreign military sales such as the F-16 deal, historically, the U.S. military has refrained from exercising with Taiwan because of China’s sensitivities.

Outside the military realm, Taipei is pressing Washington for additional support. For example, Taiwanese officials are pushing for some kind of bilateral trade deal, Schriver noted. Taiwan is already a major U.S. trading partner.

politico/morning consult poll
Anti-China sentiment is on the rise

By MARC CAPUTO
Taiwan’s leaders have repeatedly expressed gratitude for Trump’s support over the years. For instance, Taiwan was one of a few foreign entities to offer aid to the United States — $800,000 worth — as Hurricane Harvey wreaked havoc in 2017, a symbolic move more than anything else.

This week, amid the inaugural festivities, Tsai’s government expressed its pleasure over receiving the various messages of congratulations from U.S. officials. In particular, it highlighted the video messages sent from Assistant Secretary of State David Stilwell and White House deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger.

Both men made subtle digs at China in their comments.

Stilwell said “the world owes Taiwan a debt for ringing the alarm” about the coronavirus crisis early on. Pottinger, speaking in fluent Mandarin, hit a similar point, indirectly tweaking Beijing by reminding it that the illness began on its soil — a point China has at times sought to dispute through some of its messaging.

“Taiwan learned critical lessons from the 2003 SARS epidemic,” Pottinger said, according to a translation shared on Tsai’s Twitter account, “and applied them in advance of the outbreak of the mysterious disease the Chinese state-controlled media called ‘Wuhan pneumonia.’”

Pompeo did not go so far as to send a video message or engage in a phone call with Tsai, and Trump has kept silent, at least as far as has been publicly acknowledged. Serious direct engagement by a U.S. president or even his chief diplomat could have enraged Beijing well beyond its usual anger at U.S.-Taiwan overtures, analysts said.

But Pompeo’s issuance of a written congratulatory statement — which called Taiwan a “force for good in the world,” referred to Tsai as “Taiwan’s president” and was read aloud during Tsai’s inauguration ceremony — was a highly unusual, likely unprecedented, move.

The secretary of State further praised Taiwan during a press conference on Wednesday. However, Pompeo sidestepped a question on whether the U.S. should consider formalizing its relationship with Taipei, instead using the moment to criticize what he said was Beijing’s handling of the pandemic.

“We’re beginning to work to make sure we get America First, that we get this foreign policy right, and that we respond to these risks that the Chinese Communist Party presents to the United States in an appropriate way,” Pompeo said.

China’s government reacted in harsh but predictable terms to the American expressions of support for Taiwan this week, saying it threatens the bilateral relationship between Beijing and Washington.

“China will take necessary measures in response to the U.S. erroneous practices, and the consequences will be borne by the U.S. side,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Wednesday.

People close to Taiwanese leaders say they are, for the most part, thrilled with the Trump administration’s pro-Taipei bent so far, but there are some lingering disappointments, some centered on diplomatic protocols.

The fact that no senior U.S. official visits Taiwan, despite U.S. legislation that encourages such travel, is one sore point. Another is the restrictions around the types of meetings Taiwanese representatives get with U.S. diplomats. Taiwan doesn’t have an embassy in Washington; its interests are instead represented by what’s known as the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office.

Taiwanese officials are careful in how they speak about the all-important relationship with the U.S., mindful of Beijing’s red lines. A TECRO representative said that Taiwan was “grateful for the support from our diplomatic allies, as well as the United States, Japan, and many other like-minded countries on the issue of Taiwan's participation in the World Health Assembly.”

“It’s the little things,” said one person close to TECRO officials. Trump aides “all say, ‘I love Taiwan, it’s wonderful, it’s the greatest democracy in East Asia.’ But the Taiwanese can’t meet in the State Department. They have to meet in a restaurant.”

There’s also the always unnerving questions about how reliable Trump himself truly is, given his vacillation toward China over the years and his occasional broadsides against longstanding allies.

While Trump campaigned for office on an anti-China message, he has generally tried to maintain a good relationship with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. He even praised Xi’s early response to the pandemic, possibly to protect an early-phase trade deal between the two countries and hopes of a bigger deal later.

In the same vein, Trump has kept to a minimum his comments on China’s human rights abuses in places like Hong Kong, where a pro-democracy movement has been met with crackdowns.

But Trump also has questioned the One China policy. Just days ago, he floated the idea of ending ties to Beijing, claiming, “You’d save $500 billion if you cut off the whole relationship.”

Global Translations
He also recently jabbed at Xi, saying the Chinese leader was behind a “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe.” China bashing also is a main theme of Trump’s ongoing reelection campaign.

Ultimately, “there is a tremendous amount of ambivalence in Taiwan and worry,” said Russel, whose positions in the Obama administration included serving as senior director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council. “And there’s reason to worry that Trump will lose interest in Taiwan. He’d trade away Taiwan in a heartbeat if he thought it would get him his trade deal with China.”

There are limits to how far the Trump administration is willing to go for Taiwan.

The administration appears to have no immediate plans to formally recognize Taiwan’s government, a measure viewed as extreme given Beijing’s longstanding demand that Taipei reunify with China under the “one country, two systems” proposal, Schriver said.

And, despite the opportunity posed by the unusually tense relations between the U.S. and China, there’s no discussion of supporting a Taiwanese bid for formal independence from Beijing. Such a move would be so provocative toward China that one senior Trump administration official said the sky “would fall.”

“No one has ever talked about independence,” the official said. “Even the hard-core Taiwan lobby in D.C. doesn’t seriously say that.”

That’s probably fine with Taiwan’s current leadership. On the island’s complicated political spectrum it is often cast as pro-independence, but it is also cognizant that declaring all-out independence anytime soon could prompt far more than just tough talk from Beijing.

The Taiwanese are “painfully aware of the fact that, while China may have limited options to punish the U.S., it has more options for punishing Taiwan,” Russel said.

 

[jward]

Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades

The last full-scale underground test of a nuclear weapon was conducted at the Nevada Test Site in September 1992. (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
By
John Hudson and
Paul Sonne
May 22, 2020 at 8:32 p.m. CDT
The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.
The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies May 15, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.
A senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.


The meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.
The National Security Council declined to comment.
During the meeting, serious disagreements emerged over the idea, in particular from the National Nuclear Security Administration, according to two people familiar with the discussions. The NNSA, an agency that ensures the safety of the nation’s stockpile of nuclear weapons, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The United States has not conducted a nuclear test explosion since September 1992, and nuclear nonproliferation advocates warned that doing so now could have destabilizing consequences.

“It would be an invitation for other nuclear-armed countries to follow suit,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “It would be the starting gun to an unprecedented nuclear arms race. You would also disrupt the negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who may no longer feel compelled to honor his moratorium on nuclear testing.”
The United States remains the only country to have deployed a nuclear weapon during wartime, but since 1945 at least eight countries have collectively conducted about 2,000 nuclear tests, of which more than 1,000 were carried out by the United States.

The environmental and health-related consequences of nuclear testing moved the process underground, eventually leading to a near-global moratorium on testing in this century with the exception of North Korea. Concerns about the dangers of testing prompted more than 184 nations to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, an agreement that will not enter into force until ratified by eight key states, including the United States.

President Barack Obama supported the ratification of the CTBT in 2009 but never realized his goal. The Trump administration said it would not seek ratification in its 2018 Nuclear Posture Review.
Still, the major nuclear powers abide by its core prohibition on testing. But the United States in recent months has alleged that Russia and China have violated the “zero yield” standard with extremely low-yield or underground tests, not the type of many-kiloton yield tests with mushroom clouds associated with the Cold War. Russia and China deny the allegation.

Since establishing a moratorium on testing in the early 1990s, the United States has ensured that its nuclear weapons are ready to be deployed by conducting what are known as subcritical tests — blasts that do not produce a nuclear chain reaction but can test components of a weapon.

U.S. nuclear weapons facilities have also developed robust computer simulation technologies that allow for modeling of nuclear tests to ensure the arsenal is ready to deploy.
The main purpose of nuclear tests has long been to check the reliability of an existing arsenal or try out new weapon designs. Every year, top U.S. officials, including the heads of the national nuclear labs and the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, must certify the safety and reliability of the stockpile without testing. The Trump administration has said that, unlike Russia and China, it isn’t pursuing new nuclear weapons but reserves the right to do so if the two countries refuse to negotiate on their programs.

The deliberations over a nuclear test explosion come as the Trump administration prepares to leave the Treaty on Open Skies, a nearly 30-year-old pact that came into force in 2002 and was designed to reduce the chances of an accidental war by allowing mutual reconnaissance flights for members of the 34-country agreement.

The planned withdrawal marks another example of the erosion of a global arms-control framework that Washington and Moscow began hashing out painstakingly during the Cold War. The Trump administration pulled out of a 1987 pact with Russia governing intermediate-range missiles, citing violations by Moscow, and withdrew from a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, saying Tehran wasn’t living up to the spirit of it.
The primary remaining pillar of the arms-control framework between the United States and Russia is the New START pact, which places limits on strategic nuclear platforms.

The Trump administration has been pushing to negotiate a follow-on agreement that includes China in addition to Russia, but China has rejected calls for talks so far.
Trump’s presidential envoy for arms control, Marshall Billingslea, warned that China is the “midst” of a major buildup of its nuclear arsenal and “intent on building up its nuclear forces and using those forces to try to intimidate the United States and our friends and allies.”

One U.S. official said a nuclear test could help pressure the Chinese into joining a trilateral agreement with the United States and Russia, but some nonproliferation advocates say such a move is risky.
“If this administration believes that a nuclear test explosion and nuclear brinkmanship is going to coerce negotiating partners to make unilateral concessions, that’s a dangerous ploy,” Kimball said.



An earlier version of this story should have said that about 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted since 1945, not more than 8,000.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html

 

[Housecarl]

Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades

The last full-scale underground test of a nuclear weapon was conducted at the Nevada Test Site in September 1992. (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
By
John Hudson and
Paul Sonne
May 22, 2020 at 8:32 p.m. CDT
The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.
The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies May 15, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.
A senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.


The meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.
The National Security Council declined to comment.
During the meeting, serious disagreements emerged over the idea, in particular from the National Nuclear Security Administration, according to two people familiar with the discussions. The NNSA, an agency that ensures the safety of the nation’s stockpile of nuclear weapons, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The United States has not conducted a nuclear test explosion since September 1992, and nuclear nonproliferation advocates warned that doing so now could have destabilizing consequences.

“It would be an invitation for other nuclear-armed countries to follow suit,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “It would be the starting gun to an unprecedented nuclear arms race. You would also disrupt the negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who may no longer feel compelled to honor his moratorium on nuclear testing.”
The United States remains the only country to have deployed a nuclear weapon during wartime, but since 1945 at least eight countries have collectively conducted about 2,000 nuclear tests, of which more than 1,000 were carried out by the United States.

The environmental and health-related consequences of nuclear testing moved the process underground, eventually leading to a near-global moratorium on testing in this century with the exception of North Korea. Concerns about the dangers of testing prompted more than 184 nations to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, an agreement that will not enter into force until ratified by eight key states, including the United States.

President Barack Obama supported the ratification of the CTBT in 2009 but never realized his goal. The Trump administration said it would not seek ratification in its 2018 Nuclear Posture Review.
Still, the major nuclear powers abide by its core prohibition on testing. But the United States in recent months has alleged that Russia and China have violated the “zero yield” standard with extremely low-yield or underground tests, not the type of many-kiloton yield tests with mushroom clouds associated with the Cold War. Russia and China deny the allegation.

Since establishing a moratorium on testing in the early 1990s, the United States has ensured that its nuclear weapons are ready to be deployed by conducting what are known as subcritical tests — blasts that do not produce a nuclear chain reaction but can test components of a weapon.

U.S. nuclear weapons facilities have also developed robust computer simulation technologies that allow for modeling of nuclear tests to ensure the arsenal is ready to deploy.
The main purpose of nuclear tests has long been to check the reliability of an existing arsenal or try out new weapon designs. Every year, top U.S. officials, including the heads of the national nuclear labs and the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, must certify the safety and reliability of the stockpile without testing. The Trump administration has said that, unlike Russia and China, it isn’t pursuing new nuclear weapons but reserves the right to do so if the two countries refuse to negotiate on their programs.

The deliberations over a nuclear test explosion come as the Trump administration prepares to leave the Treaty on Open Skies, a nearly 30-year-old pact that came into force in 2002 and was designed to reduce the chances of an accidental war by allowing mutual reconnaissance flights for members of the 34-country agreement.

The planned withdrawal marks another example of the erosion of a global arms-control framework that Washington and Moscow began hashing out painstakingly during the Cold War. The Trump administration pulled out of a 1987 pact with Russia governing intermediate-range missiles, citing violations by Moscow, and withdrew from a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, saying Tehran wasn’t living up to the spirit of it.
The primary remaining pillar of the arms-control framework between the United States and Russia is the New START pact, which places limits on strategic nuclear platforms.

The Trump administration has been pushing to negotiate a follow-on agreement that includes China in addition to Russia, but China has rejected calls for talks so far.
Trump’s presidential envoy for arms control, Marshall Billingslea, warned that China is the “midst” of a major buildup of its nuclear arsenal and “intent on building up its nuclear forces and using those forces to try to intimidate the United States and our friends and allies.”

One U.S. official said a nuclear test could help pressure the Chinese into joining a trilateral agreement with the United States and Russia, but some nonproliferation advocates say such a move is risky.
“If this administration believes that a nuclear test explosion and nuclear brinkmanship is going to coerce negotiating partners to make unilateral concessions, that’s a dangerous ploy,” Kimball said.



An earlier version of this story should have said that about 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted since 1945, not more than 8,000.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html

Wow, that will definitely get EVERYONE'S ATTENTION! Just even muttering about the possibility is an eye opener.....

ETA: I'm guessing this is the opener for giving the other powers an option to come to the table, else besides this suggestion of a "test", there'll be talk next of re-MIRVing the ICBM force and up MIRVing the SLBMs.....ETA2: I can only imagine the popping talking heads on the MSM about this tomorrow morning......

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1264318072669769728

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/inside_nk/status/1264318072669769728

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1264320128507928576

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1264320128507928576

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1264559874802724867

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1264559874802724867

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1266073410972639233

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1266073410972639233