WAR 04-09-2016-to-04-15-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

(210) 03-19-2016-to-03-25-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...25-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(211) 03-26-2016-to-04-01-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...01-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(212) 04-02-2016-to-04-08-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...08-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/3...der-kim-supervises-engine-test-for-icbm-kcna/

North Korea leader Kim supervises engine test for ICBM - KCNA

Reuters on April 9, 2016, 8:05 am

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised a successful test of a new engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), its state media said on Saturday in the latest claim of making advances in its arms programme that has brought U.N. sanctions.

Tension has remained high on the Korean peninsula after the North's nuclear test and a long-range rocket launch earlier in the year and South Korean and U.S. troops conducted large-scale joint drills amid harsh rhetoric from both rival Koreas.

The engine was ignited at Kim's command and released a fiery blast, and the test showed the indigenously designed rocket fulfilled all required conditions, KCNA said.

"Dear Comrade Kim Jong Un said now we can mount an ever more powerful nuclear warhead on a new intercontinental ballistic rocket and put the den of evil in the United States and all over the world within our strike range," KCNA said.

The test was conducted at the country's missile station near its west coast where in February it launched a long-range rocket that put an object into space orbit and was supervised by Kim, the North's KCNA news agency said.

The North said in March that it had miniaturised a nuclear warhead to be mounted on ballistic missiles and conducted a simulated re-entry test of a ballistic missile, which could indicate advances in its ICBM programme if true.

But South Korean officials questioned those assertions and said the North was several years away from developing an ICBM. The United States said there was no proof of the North's claims and called on Pyongyang to halt actions that fuelled tension.

The North conducted its fourth nuclear test in January and the rocket launch in February in defiance of international warnings and past U.N. sanctions, triggering a new Security Council resolution that imposed more punishment.

Despite the claims, the North has yet to conduct a flight-test of a long-range missile or an ICBM that would demonstrate successful mastery of the technology needed to bring a missile back into the atmosphere and hit a target with precision.

The North claimed its January nuclear test was a successful hydrogen bomb test, but many experts and officials in the South and the United States said the blast was too small to have been from a successful such test.


(Reporting by Jack Kim; Editing by James Dalgleish)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/04/485_202247.html

Posted : 2016-04-09 12:49
Updated : 2016-04-09 12:49

N. Korea claims successful missile engine test

http://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/newsV2/images/Y2016040901514-650.jpg
North Korea claimed it has successfully conducted a ground test of a new engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). / Yonhap

By Ko Dong-hwan

North Korea claimed Saturday that it has successfully conducted a ground test of a new engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the latest in a series of the rogue state's claims of progress for its nuclear and missile programs.

Kim Jong-un, leader of North Korea, appeared to orchestrate the "jet test for a new type of high-powered engine for an ICBM and visited the Sohae Space Center to guide the test," Yonhap news agency reported citing the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

According to the KCNA, Kim said, "The great success made in the test provided a firm guarantee for us to mount another form of nuclear attack upon the U.S. imperialists and other hostile forces, and makes it possible to have access to more powerful means of reacting to nukes in kind."

He added, "Now, North Korea can tip a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile with more powerful nuclear warheads, keeping any cesspool of evil buried in the earth, including the U.S., by keeping them within our striking range and reducing them to ashes so that they may not survive on our planet."

Kim has stressed the need to diversify means of nuclear attack at a higher level to defend his state against nuclear threats and the arbitrariness of the U.S. imperialists, according to the KCNA.

http://img.koreatimes.co.kr/upload/newsV2/images/Y2016040901516-650.jpg
North Korean soldiers exalt what the state has claimed as a successful test of new engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is seen on the bottom left. / Yonhap

It was the latest in a series of claims of breakthroughs in the North's nuclear and missile programs.

On Mar 24, the state argued that it conducted a successful test of a "solid-fuel rocket engine and its cascade separation." The state had announced earlier that they miniaturized nuclear warheads to fit on an ICBM and mastered missile atmospheric re-entry technology.

The KCNA did not specify the name of the tested ICBM. Analysts viewed it as a KN-14, an upgraded version of the KN-08.

"North Korea appears to be seeking to prove its missile capability in technical stages, as it's difficult to show the actual launch of an ICBM," Yang Uk, a South Korean defense specialist, said, according to Yonhap. "The North is apparently asserting that it is capable of attacking the U.S. mainland any time it wants."

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://colombiareports.com/paramilitary-threat-puts-farc-peace-talks-hold/

‘Paramilitary’ threat puts Colombia peace talks on hold

written by Adriaan Alsema April 8, 2016

Peace talks between Colombia’s government and FARC rebels are stuck because the government refuses to acknowledge the existence of far-right paramilitaries while the FARC demands their dismantling.

According to both the Colombian and US governments, paramilitary groups ceased to exist in 2006 when the last unit of paramilitary organization AUC formally mobilized.

However, hardly anyone in Colombia believes either Bogota or Washington DC, especially after the heirs of the AUC, “Los Urabeños,” shut down parts of the country over the weekend.

The FARC, who has been engaged in active combat with these groups for years, has called for the effective dismantling of the paramilitary structures once run by the AUC and now by the Urabeños.

However, according to Defense Minister Luis Carlos Villegas, “it is irresponsible to qualify these groups as paramilitary” even though the years have made it crystal clear that the men currently running the Urabeños are the same people who once fought for the AUC and, like the paramilitaries, are violently opposing leftist political forces.

The Urabeños, who call themselves the Gaitanista Self-Defense Forces of Colombia, want to be considered a paramilitary force “to have the political recognition we can’t give them, given the fact that their only purpose is making profits through criminal enterprises and terror,” Villegas told El Tiempo.

“In the country there are no paramilitaries,” said Villegas, whose government insists on calling the paramilitary successor groups “criminal bands” or simply BaCrim.

The remark infuriated FARC chief negotiator “Ivan Marquez,” whose guerrilla group has been demanding the dismantling of paramilitary groups for more than a year, apparently with little success.

Marquez took to Twitter to vent his fury, “If for Villegas, paramilitarism is a ghost, why are we beginning to see it expanding throughout Colombia: the fact is he does not see it,” he wrote on the social network.

He argued that “paramilitarism is not an excuse to delay anything; It is a lethal threat to peace and democracy.“

The recent actions of the Urabenos in bringing the north of the country to a standstill clearly illustrated the threat that they pose.

This is a source of much frustration for the leaders of the FARC as they broach the issue of “end of conflict” in the negotiations.

“The surge in paramilitary actions against the civilian population and political and social leaders casts a shadow over the substantial progress in the talks with the insurgencies and (over) the hopes for peace of all Colombians,” the FARC said in a statement.

As both the government and the FARC seek to agree a framework for the demobilization of the left wing rebels the threat of right-wing militants has prompted the FARC to seek a dismantling of the structures that allow these militant groups to exist.

“We must do away with all these regional and national structures that have been promoting war and who have made ​​great efforts for peace cannot be waged in Colombia” , said guerrilla Pastor Alape, who answered questions from the press in Havana.

The guerrilla leader said that the problem of paramilitarism is “very deep”, because of the “alliances” of these structures with political and economic sectors as well as the security forces of the State, whose vision for national defense was based for a long time “anticommunism and counterinsurgency.”

“That means that we must deepen the very conception of national defense that has characterized the Colombian State , ” said Alape, who noted that collectively they must “dismantle the political structures that feed this problem.”

The threat of the paramilitaries has been recognized in many quarters and has contributed to the stalling of the talks in Havana.

President Juan Manuel Santos refuses to concede that they have become a major player on the political spectrum of the country.

According to him, the Urabeños “is a criminal drug-trafficking organization that under no circumstances will be given any political treatment,” he said, vowing to continue police and military operations to dismantle the group.

The governments failure to recognize the problem and the subsequent implications for a demobilized FARC threatens to restrain the final stages of the negotiating the end to a 52-year-long conflict.

According to conflict analyst Ariel Avila there is a danger of “”significant bloodshed”” if the FARC were to demobilize and the government fail to tackle these neo-paramilitary groups in the meantime.


- Urabeños shut-down ends after expanding terror campaign to Medellin
- Colombia’s left fears political extermination following 29 murders in 2 weeks
- The FARC’s biggest fear: Colombia’s paramilitary groups
- UN warns for neo-paramilitary violence in Colombia after peace with FARC

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...iffhanger-on-impeachment-in-decisive-showdown

Brazil Heads for Cliffhanger on Impeachment in Decisive Showdown

by Raymond Colitt, Anna Edgerton and Arnaldo Galvao
April 8, 2016 — 12:43 PM PDT

Brazil’s drawn-out political crisis is moving into a decisive phase next week with two key votes in Congress that could seal the fate of President Dilma Rousseff’s political future.

A special committee in the lower house began a marathon session on Friday in order to decide by Monday whether to move forward with an impeachment request against Rousseff. The full Chamber of Deputies could vote as early as April 17, either killing impeachment or setting the stage for Rousseff’s ouster in the Senate.

An economic crisis that cost Brazil its coveted investment-grade rating and a corruption scandal that locked up leading executives and politicians have left Latin America’s largest nation deeply divided. Yet many centrist legislators continue undecided on whether to support Rousseff or side with Vice-President Michel Temer, who would replace her and whose party left government last month. Unlike President Fernando Collor de Mello who in 1992 was ousted by an overwhelming majority in both houses, Rousseff’s fate seems to be hanging in the balance.

"It’s still up in the air," said Joao Paulo Peixoto, professor of political science at the University of Brasilia. "I change my outlook almost every week."

As of Friday afternoon, anti-government group VemPraRua said there were 277 votes for and 122 against impeachment in the house. A group of Rousseff allies, including members of her Workers’ Party, said there were 127 votes against the president’s ouster. If 342 of 513 lower house lawmakers back impeachment, the case moves to the Senate, which several analysts say would probably follow suit.

Supporters of Rousseff and Temer in recent days have both been trying to win over undecided legislators by offering government posts. They have also squabbled over procedural issues that could slow down or accelerate the process. While the chairman of the impeachment committee has been seeking to speed up the debate for which more than 100 speakers signed up, government supporters are balking at the fast-track approach.

Attorney-General Jose Eduardo Cardozo said he could challenge the impeachment process before the Supreme Court, citing insufficient legal grounds and alleged irregularities in the committee. Rousseff, who was imprisoned and tortured during Brazil’s 1964-85 military dictatorship, has repeatedly denied wrongdoing and said that an impeachment process without sufficient evidence would amount to a coup.

The impeachment committee will vote on a report presented last week that concluded Rousseff bypassed Congress in authorizing credits to mask a growing budget deficit. While the report is not binding, the vote to confirm or reject it is the first real barometer on the prospect for impeachment.

The government seemed to have clawed back some support earlier in the month, but
Rousseff’s momentum “has slowed, or even reversed” in recent days, political consulting company Eurasia Group said in a research note on Friday. The impeachment of Rousseff this month has a 60 percent probability, it estimated.

First, the agriculture federation and Evangelical legislators came out in support of impeachment on Wednesday. Then, Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper on Thursday published fresh allegations that Andrade Gutierrez construction company financed Rousseff’s re-election campaign in exchange for benefits, charges the government denied.

Meanwhile, Rousseff’s efforts to bring former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to government to help muster support in Congress remain stuck in the Supreme Court -- and with diminishing chances of being approved before the impeachment vote. In a surprising change of opinion, chief public prosecutor Rodrigo Janot argued on Thursday that Lula should not be allowed to join Rousseff’s cabinet and thereby gain special legal privileges because it looked as though his appointment was designed to protect him from an ongoing corruption probe.

Rousseff seems to be facing headwinds for now and will probablly lose the committee vote next week, said Cristiano Noronha, Vice-President of Arko Advice Consulting Firm. But that can still change, he said.

"It’ll be a back and forth cycle until the day of the vote," said Noronha.

 

[Housecarl]

Remember those comments about "carpet bombing"..... The more accurate way of describing what's going to happen think "Arc Light" with precision guided weapons....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-deploys-b-52-bombers-qatar-fight-against-122534959.html

U.S. deploys B-52 bombers to Qatar for fight against Islamic State

Reuters
April 9, 2016

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Air Force deployed B-52 bombers to Qatar on Saturday to join the fight against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the first time they have been based in the Middle East since the end of the Gulf War in 1991.

U.S. Air Forces Central Command said it last flew the long-range bombers operationally in the region in May 2006 as part of the war in Afghanistan, and during a U.S.-led military exercise in Jordan in May 2015.

"The B-52 demonstrates our continued resolve to apply persistent pressure on Daesh and defend the region in any future contingency," said Air Force Lieutenant General Charles Brown, commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command.

Daesh is the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State militant movement.

Lieutenant Colonel Chris Karns, spokesman for the Central Command, said he could not provide the exact number of B-52 bombers to be based at Al Udeid Air Basein Qatar due to "operational security reasons."

Washington's decision to deploy its powerful B-52 bombers to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar came as the U.S. military stepped up the fight against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Brown said the bombers would be able to deliver precision weapons and carry out a range of missions, including strategic attack, close-air support, air interdiction, and maritime operations.

Karns said the bombers would enable U.S. forces to drop one or two munitions in an area, rather than use carpet bombing.

"Accuracy is critically important in this war," he said. "Carpet-bombing would not be effective for the operation we're in because Daesh doesn't mass as large groups. Often, they blend into population centers. We always look to minimize civilian casualties."

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Tom Heneghan)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/official-6th-person-arrested-belgium-113157148.html?nhp=1

6th arrest in Belgium over attacks, new raid in Brussels

RAPHAEL SATTER and LORNE COOK
April 9, 2016

BRUSSELS (AP) — Belgian authorities have detained a sixth person suspected of ties to the Brussels bombings, a group that includes the last known fugitive of last year's Paris attacks and a Swedish fighter with possible links to attacks in both Brussels and Paris, prosecutors said Saturday.

The arrests could give investigators new insights into the Islamic State group cell believed to have carried out the attacks in both France and Belgium.

The announcement came as police, including masked officers, descended on Brussels' Etterbeek neighborhood, sealing part of it off. There was no immediate police comment on their latest raid.

Authorities had announced the arrest of five men on Friday, including Mohamed Abrini, the last identified suspect at large from the Paris attacks. Belgium's prosecutor's office said Saturday that a sixth person had been arrested, but refused to give any further details.

Another one of the six, named only as Osama K. by authorities, was identified by Swedish media as Osama Krayem, who is known to have left the Swedish city of Malmo to fight in Syria.

Belgium's prosecutor's office confirmed only that Osama K. was from Sweden. Swedish officials had no immediate comment.

Abrini and Krayem are suspected of participating in the two biggest attacks carried out by the Islamic State group in Europe over the past year, killing 130 people in Paris on Nov. 13 and 32 people in Brussels on March 22.

Investigators are still trying to determine whether Abrini is the "man in the hat" who escaped the Brussels attacks while two suicide bombers blew themselves up at the airport and other attacked the city's subway. They'll also be investigating Krayem's role in the attack: he was filmed by security cameras at a shopping mall where the bags used by the airport bombers were bought. French authorities also suspect Krayem of having links to the Paris attacks.

"It's still not confirmed whether Abrini is the man in the hat, we still don't know," Belgian Interior Minister Jan Jambon told RTL television on Saturday.

The arrests may also help investigators unravel the links between the attacks and IS, the radical Muslim group that controls territory in both Iraq and Syria.

Krayem had earlier been identified posting photos from Syria on social media, according to Magnus Ranstorp, a counterterrorism expert at the Swedish National Defense College.

"He also tried to recruit people in Malmo," Ranstorp told The Associated Press.

The detentions were a rare success for Belgian authorities, who have been pilloried for mishandling leads in the investigation. But despite multiple arrests, Brussels remains under the second-highest terror alert, meaning an attack is considered likely.

"There are perhaps other cells that are still active on our territory," Jambon said.

___

Satter reported from Paris. Jan M. Olsen in Copenhagen, Denmark and Geert Vanden Wijngaert in Brussels contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/air-forc...-joint-training-exercise-083741426.html?nhp=1

Air forces of China, Pakistan launch joint training exercise

April 9, 2016

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's air force on Saturday began joint training exercises with that of Pakistan, China's defense ministry said, as the two nations' militaries strengthen operational ties.

The countries call each other "all-weather friends", with ties underpinned by long-standing wariness of their common neighbor, India, and a desire to hedge against U.S. influence in Asia.

"China's Air Force hopes to widen the scope of cooperation and dialogue with all countries and regions," the Chinese defense ministry said in a statement on its website, adding that the exercise, called "Shaheen V," would run until April 30.

China has long urged Pakistan to weed out what it says are militants from its far western region of Xinjiang who have holed up in lawless ethnic Pashtun areas on Pakistan's Afghan border, home to a mix of groups, including the Taliban and al Qaeda.

For its part Pakistan wants to upgrade its air force, now dependent on a mostly outmoded fleet of US, French and Chinese fighter jets that Pakistani officials fear can do little against Indian craft or help target domestic insurgents.

In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, Pakistan Air Force second-in-command Muhammad Ashfaque Arain said the bulk of the burden was now borne by a fleet of U.S. made F-16 aircraft.

He saw the purchase of more F-16s as economically unfeasible, however. Instead, Islamabad plans to invest in a joint fighter built with China, the JF-17.

(Reporting by Pete Sweeney; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

 

[Housecarl]

Something to consider...The military history of both of these nations and cultures are not to be sneezed at. People need to understand that the French failure in 1940 was not so much a matter of military failure on the battlefield at that time but a series of political failures reaching back fifteen years before (the same can be argued regarding Algeria and Indo-China). The Germans in the cases of both world wars had eyes bigger than their stomachs (or boots) to be simplistic about it.

As things sit now on the Continent, if you get the French and Germans on the same page as the Poles then get the Russians onboard things start getting very interesting....

--

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/france-confronts-germany-on-defense/

France Confronts Germany on Defense

The two countries have diverging views on boosting their military efforts.

April 8, 2016

By George Friedman

Summary France and Germany are growing further apart. When it comes to their approach to security threats, military operations and spending priorities, the two countries increasingly diverge. The differences between Paris and Berlin underline Europe’s fragmentation.

One day before a joint meeting of French and German officials on April 7, French President François Hollande said in an interview with the German newspaper Bild, “Our two countries must agree to a budgetary effort on defense. And to act outside Europe. Let’s not rely on another power, even a friendly one, to do away with terrorism.” This is a statement that requires serious consideration.

The European Union was built on a core concept. The origin of European conflict, going back to 1871, has been the divergent interests of France and Germany. The post-World War II solution was to integrate the French and German economies so deeply that political divergence became impossible. The European Union has lost its cohesion, and the alignment between France and Germany is holding it together. The union is not what it once was, but so long as these two countries retain a fundamental alignment, it is reasonable to say that all is not lost. However, relations between the two countries have come under strain, and anything that adds to the existing tension raises red flags. The statement made by the French president on the eve of a meeting with the Germans to showcase harmony is a red flag.

The attacks in Paris and Brussels have posed a fundamental question for France. It cannot simply accept this threat, but must do something about it. There are two parts to dealing with this threat. First, the conflicts that are raging in the Middle East must be brought under some control. Second, the issue of radicalization in Muslim communities must in some way be addressed. In the Bild interview, Hollande made the latter clear, although how he will respond to this issue is uncertain. But for the French, building a European military force around France and Germany is the necessary precondition for any solution to Europe’s growing challenges.

This goes counter Germany’s fundamental sense of self and its interests. For Germany, building a military force after World War II has been problematic. It had one during the Cold War, but in many ways it was not under Germany’s command but NATO’s. It did not have the feel of a resurgent European military because it was, in the end, the junior partner of the United States.

Hollande specifically said that France and Germany could not depend on a third power, no matter how friendly, to fight their battles. He clearly was referring to the United States. Collaborating on defense budgets, with each nation contributing based on economic size, would mean that Germany would be both the leading economic and military power in Europe. Within the EU, Germany is first among equals. Creating a substantial military force would cement that. And that raises for Germans the specter of a return to what must never be again.

There is another reason for the divergence between the two countries, which explains why the French are not more frightened of this proposal than they should be. The French want an expansionary budgetary policy, while the Germans want to restrain spending. Defense spending would generate budget deficits, but this would also stimulate Europe’s economy. German unemployment at the moment is 4.5 percent, while France’s is much higher. Germany, at full employment, fears inflation, but France fears stagnation.

There is a psychological divergence as well. The French are responding to terror attacks with a sense of helplessness. The Germans have not been attacked in the same way and are more sanguine. This reminds me of the U.S. response to 9/11 and the European sense at the time that the U.S. was overreacting. The schism between those who have been victimized and those who have not is profound. One must act, while the other sees no urgency and cautions prudence.

The implicit reference to the United States is also important here. France is acknowledging that Europe cannot simply rely on the U.S. to fight wars with the jihadists. Indeed, the U.S. has shifted away from multidivisional ground combat. We can see that in Syria. The Americans have learned that it is easy to defeat a conventional military force, as it did in Iraq. However, the Iraqi military fragmented and evolved into a resistance that would require massive force to even attempt suppressing. The United States simply does not have a force of that size. It will not engage on the ground in Syria, confining itself to special operations and airstrikes. In a way, the Americans have learned the lesson the French have been trying to teach them since 2003. But on the other hand, the French have now learned the reality the Americans have lived with since 2001.

In addition, Donald Trump is far from the only American who thinks NATO, in its current form, doesn’t work. The population of the European Union is just 500 million, nearly 200 million more than the United States. The EU’s GDP is larger than the American GDP. There is no reason why Europe’s defense capability should not at least be the equal of the United States. It was a given in the 1950s or 1960s that Europe’s contribution should be a small fraction of the United States’ contribution. In 2016, there is no justification for the disparity.

The disparity exists because the Europeans have not seen themselves as having major strategic threats or interests that the United States would not deal with. Whether it was the the Middle East or Ukraine, the Europeans made the assumption that the United States would accept the risk and the burden of dealing with the threat and permit the Europeans to contribute what they were comfortable with. It is simply not clear that the United States will continue in this role. It may, but the time it would take for the U.S. to create an enhanced military force is substantial. U.S. policy, like all countries’ policies, is changeable and shows signs of changing. Hence Hollande’s warning.

There are two Europes speaking here. One, the Europe that needs stimulus, is frightened by the jihadist threat and views the Middle East as an arena where it might have to fight – and might not be able to count on the United States. The other Europe fears stimulus, is not nearly as frightened by the jihadist threat and can’t imagine fighting on a large scale in the Middle East.

That these two Europes are represented by France and Germany indicates the depth of Europe’s fragmentation. Embedded in Hollande’s statement is the distance that separates these two nations. Any challenges to the EU from Britain or Poland or Greece are trivial matters compared to the differences building up between France and Germany.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/...nagorno-karabakh_its_about_europe_111805.html

Russia's Interest in Nagorno-Karabakh: It's About Europe

Posted by Antonia Colibasanu on April 8, 2016
Comments

European sanctions against Russia are set to expire on July 31, barring a unanimous vote to extend them the next time EU heads of state meet. Russia has developed several ways to influence Europeans. Over the long term, Moscow has chosen economic diplomacy, while also supporting any movement that seeks to unravel European integration and disrupt Transatlantic links.

This support covers all kinds of actions: from funding European far-right parties, to supporting roundtables focused on issues of national self-determination, to fostering dialogue on national spiritual awakening -- especially in those countries where Russia can involve the Orthodox Church in the debate. These measures are of little help in the short run -- they are not designed to round up citizen support to press governments to lift EU sanctions in July.

The only way Russia can change the European perception of its actions is through, well, the actions themselves. And we can see Moscow starting to change tack. The first positive reports in the Western mainstream media about Russian operations in Syria came after the liberation of Palmyra. Before that happened, on March 24 U.S. Secretary John Kerry met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow to discuss Syria and Ukraine. The meeting validated the idea that Russia's involvement in the two conflicts has in fact been linked from the very beginning. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh now presents Moscow with its latest opportunity to create a better image for Russia in the eyes of the Europeans - again, through its actions.

The Kremlin used its intervention in Syria to bolster the perception of a strong Russia - and a weakened United States - and that perception, it hoped, would change the dynamics in Eastern Europe. This was the greater value-added to the genuine interest that Moscow had in Syria itself. Moscow intervened after the anti-Assad coalition failed to take hold and the Islamic State had risen to prominence. Syrian President Bashar al Assad was certainly preferable to the thought of an Islamic State that could reach Damascus, but the United States was unable to reverse its earlier posture that Assad must go. In a way, Washington needed to allow Russia's show of defying American wishes. Putin took the chance, and in so doing he put Ukraine back on the negotiation table. Russia's recent withdrawal from Syria had much to do with events on Russian borders. Putin needed approach talks about Ukraine from a position of strength, considering Russian interests in keeping Ukraine out of Western military alliances on one hand, and unfreezing economic relations with the European Union on the other. Seeing Palmyra liberated, and issuing the public announcement just days after the meeting between Lavrov and Kerry, plays as a splendid PR exercise.

But it's still far too little to impress the Europeans. Enter Nagorno-Karabakh. The Caucasus appear to most Americans as a faraway place, even if their strategic position is well understood, considering that this is where Russian interests meet up against those of Iran and Turkey.

For Europeans, the Caucasus are much closer. Azerbaijan is a key country that the European Union is courting for energy resources, while Armenia is said to be the oldest Christian polity. Nagorno-Karabakh's is a frozen conflict that every so often thaws -- but it hasn't broken into full-fledged war since the 1988-1994 conflict ended. If it did, such a conflict could draw in Russia, Turkey, Iran, and ultimately, Europe and the United States - so the topic is quite sensitive.

This is why the way Russia handles the story is in turn shaping how the European public perceives it. On April 5, a cease-fire agreement had been reached between Armenian and Azerbaijani military chiefs after they met in Moscow. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev traveled to Yerevan on April 7 and to Baku on April 8.Lavrov was in Baku on April 6 and was set to meet his Armenian counterpart in Moscow on April 8. All this indicates a clever play on behalf of Russia, balancing its diplomacy between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and building on its newfound peacekeeper image.

Moscow is trying to show it can be responsible. Putin understands that governments can't change their minds without the support of their publics. If European publics see Russia more as a peacemaker and less as an aggressor, pressure on European governments to take a softer line will increase. There is little to nothing that the Russian game in the Caucasus actually changes, and as such, Moscow's maneuvering on Nagorno-Karabakh entails little risk. Restructuring Europe's perception of Russia, on the other hand, is important. This is yet another step towards convincing the Europeans that Russia doesn't deserve sanctions: a political switch out of a geopolitical problem.


The views here expressed are those of the author alone.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://abcnews.go.com/International...es-increase-fighting-deaths-reported-38272208

Eastern Ukraine Sees Increase in Fighting, 2 Deaths Reported

By The Associated Press · MOSCOW — Apr 9, 2016, 11:44 AM ET

Ukraine on Saturday reported a sharp increase in attacks by Russia-backed separatists around the government-held town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, resulting in at least one civilian death. The rebels also reported increased shelling from government forces and the death of one of their fighters.

The fighting that broke out in eastern Ukraine two years ago has killed more than 9,100 people and left swaths of territory under rebel control. A cease-fire agreement signed in February 2015 in Minsk, Belarus, has significantly reduced the violence, but it is regularly violated by both sides and the political settlement that was part of the agreement has not been implemented.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, responsible for monitoring the truce, on Thursday expressed concern about what it called the highest level of cease-fire violations since September. The head of the monitoring mission, Ertugrul Apakan, "noted as particularly troubling the extremely high number of incidents involving the use of heavy weapons and mortars."

Ukraine's military said the situation around Avdiivka has significantly deteriorated since last weekend and accused the rebels of using tanks, mortars and artillery to attack the town, located just 17 kilometers (10 miles) north of Donetsk, the separatist stronghold. On Friday, a mortar attack killed a civilian woman, the statement said.

Five Ukrainian servicemen were wounded Friday, including four in Avdiivka, the Interfax news agency reported, citing Andriy Lysenko, presidential spokesman for Ukrainian forces in the east.

The rebel forces accused government troops of widespread shelling in violation of the cease-fire. Eduard Basurin, deputy head of the Donetsk military forces, said one fighter was killed by a Ukrainian sniper and two civilians were wounded, Interfax reported.

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htarm/articles/20160409.aspx

Armor: Bastion For Africa

April 9, 2016: The U.S. ordered 62 Bastion 4x4 wheeled APCs armored personnel carriers in 2015 specifically for Cameroon, Ethiopia, Somalia, Tunisia, Mali and Uganda to use at home and in peacekeeping missions. Some of these Bastions have shown up in Mali recently used by the Mali Army. Tunisia, Somalia and Uganda have found have found the vehicles effective in combat zones. Tunisia and Somalia used theirs at home while Uganda had them accompany Ugandan troops on peacekeeping missions. Most of the Bastion’s have been delivered and all will arrive by 2017.

In effect the 12 ton Bastion is MRAP lite as it has many of the same design features of an MRAP but is not as well protected against mines and roadside bombs. It can carry up to twelve (usually 8-10) and has a turret mounted heavy machine-gun or automatic grenade launcher. Bastion does have excellent cross-country mobility and was designed mainly as a reconnaissance vehicle that can also serve as convoy escort or in peacekeeping operations. Built in France, Bastion is also used by the French military.

https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/french-bastion-4x4-apc-01.jpg

 

[Housecarl]

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...61ad1c-fe67-11e5-813a-90ab563f0dde_story.html

18 Filipino soldiers killed in daylong clash with militants

By Jim Gomez | AP April 9 at 12:08 PM

MANILA, Philippines — At least 18 soldiers were killed in fierce daylong fighting with Abu Sayyaf extremists in the southern Philippines on Saturday in the largest single-day government combat loss this year, officials said.

At least 52 other soldiers were wounded in the clashes with the Abu Sayyaf and its allied gunmen in the hinterlands bordering Tipo Tipo and Al-Barka towns on Basilan island, three military officials told The Associated Press. Four militants were killed in the clashes, they said.

The three senior military officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to publicly discuss details of the clashes. The large combat casualties were reported as the country marked the Day of Valor to remember Filipino veterans who perished in World War II.

Government forces were deployed to kill or capture Abu Sayyaf commander Isnilon Hapilon, who has publicly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group and has been hunted for years for his alleged involvement in several terrorist attacks, the officials said.

The militants, however, apparently managed to reinforce their ranks quickly and managed to muster between 100 and 150 fighters, allowing them to inflict large casualties on troops, the officials said.

It’s the largest single-day government combat loss this year in the south, where the military has been battling Muslim separatist rebels and extremists, and Marxist guerrillas.

The Abu Sayyaf was founded in 1991 in Basilan, about 880 kilometers (550 miles) south of Manila. With an unwieldy collective of preachers and outlaws, it vowed to wage jihad, or holy war, but lost its key leaders early in combat, sending it on a violent path of extremism and criminality.

The United States and the Philippines have separately blacklisted the Abu Sayyaf as a terrorist organization for deadly bombings, extortion, kidnappings for ransom, and beheadings of locals and foreigners, including Christian missionaries in the south. More than a decade of U.S.-backed Philippine offensives have weakened the Abu Sayyaf, but it remains a key security threat.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

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http://sputniknews.com/asia/2016040...-editorial-about-nuclear-missile-program.html

China Blasts North Korea in Deleted Editorial About Nuclear Missile Program

Asia & Pacific
19:40 09.04.2016(updated 19:43 09.04.2016)

The People’s Daily in China criticized North Korea this week, urging it to reconsider its nuclear weapons program as the Chinese ally announced tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile engine. The post was later taken down.

An editorial in China’s People’s Daily argued North Korea is risking stability by continuing their efforts to develop intercontinental-capable nuclear weapons, according to China Cheat Sheets. The post even questioned Pyongyang’s military capability, comparing tensions between North and South Korea to the chaos in Syria.

“Syria’s turmoil came about as the result of a population of only 20 million or so people,” the editorial read before it disappeared. “Just imagine what it would be like for the Korean peninsula with [about] 80 million?”

“With inadequate economic, military, technological and management capability, should there be any nuclear leaks, like those that occurred in Japan [at Fukushima] … what would happen to northeastern China’s security?”

North Korea announced Saturday the successful testing an engine that would radically increase the range of ballistic missiles could be mounted with nuclear warheads, an act that would violate UN sanctions.

The North Korean news agency KCNA said in a report that the engine would “guarantee” the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea’s ability to strike the US.

Earlier this year in January, North Korea conducted their fourth nuclear-weapon test which several governments condemned including Beijing. Disregarding the criticism, the next month, North Korea launched a long-range rocket designed to put a satellite into orbit.

The People’s Daily editorial stressed that the relationship between China and Pyongyang has worsened since the nuclear test. China went so far as to impose new sanctions corresponding with the UN’s call to ban significant imports. Those include coal, iron ore, gold, titanium and other rare elements as well as a range of products including jet fuel.

Such sanctions are designed to deplete Pyongyang’s ability to fund the ballistic-missile program, the results of which analysts believe Pyongyang will start to take effect between six months to a year from now.

Still, many experts have responded that they do not believe Chinese and North Korean relations are in any danger of collapsing any time soon.

“North Korea still relies heavily on China via normal economic development despite UN sanctions and China will continue to uphold good neighborly relations with North Korea,” Cui Zhiying, a Korean affairs expert at Shanghai’s Tongji University, told South China Morning Post.


Related:
- North Korea Reports Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Engine Test
- North Korea Pressured With China’s Additional Restrictions on Trade
- US Needs Russia, China to Make New Sanctions Against North Korea Work
- Russia, China Against North Korea's Ambitions to Develop Nuclear Weapons
- South Korea Urges Japan to Stop Claiming Liancourt Rocks Islands

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.slguardian.org/2016/04/will-the-us-go-to-nuclear-war-over-kobe-or-pusan/

Will the US go to Nuclear War Over Kobe or Pusan?

Columnists Eric Margolis
Feature
12 mins ago

Ending the pretense of nuclear virginity would make North Asia safer. China and North Korea would be much less likely to threaten Japan and South Korea if these latter nations had nuclear retaliatory forces and anti-missile systems.

by Eric S. Margolis

( April 10, 2016, New York Times, Sri Lanka Guardian) Should Japan and South Korea be permitted to develop nuclear weapons? That was the very good question posed last week by candidate Donald Trump.

Washington’s elite and neocon war party threw up their hands in horror at Trump’s heretical question. The media, heavily influenced by neocons who hate Trump’s call for even-handed US policy in the Mideast, scorned his nuclear proposal or simply ignored it.

Too bad that Trump’s proposal was drowned in a sea of media noise. His idea has merit. This writer, long specialized in North Asian security affairs, has been advocating for a decade that Japan and South Korea develop their own nuclear weapons and anti-missile systems.

Two of Asia’s most important powers cannot afford to remain strategically naked, vulnerable and totally reliant on US strategic protection. Would the US risk a nuclear war, even a limited one, to protect Pusan, South Korea or Kobe, Japan?

Trump framed this question in dollars, as befits a businessman. Why should the US pay to defend these two wealthy nations? The answer: because Japan and South Korea are the keystone of America’s Asian imperium. They offer highly important military bases and key strategic geography that allows the US to politically, militarily and economically dominate North Asia. Expenses therefrom are costs of empire.

Trade plays an even bigger role in the American imperium than military power. By giving Japanese and South Korean industries access in the 1950’s to the vast US market, Washington made them economic as well as military dependents. Today, China is half way into the same imperial trade system.

Now, the rapid development of nuclear armed medium and long-range missiles in China and North Korea – both bitter historic enemies of Japan – is forcing Tokyo and Seoul to confront this vital issue.

Last week, numerous intelligence sources affirmed that North Korea had indeed miniaturized a nuclear warhead that could be carried a top one of its improved Rodong intermediate, 2,000km -range missiles. This would allow North Korea to hit targets all over South Korea, most of Japan, Okinawa and perhaps the giant US base at Guam.

The North could also menace the far more important target, Japan. Even shorter range N. Korean missiles can hit Japan, which has only very limited anti-missile defense. Israel, by comparison, has a far more capable multi-level anti-missile system. In spite of much talk about new strategic defenses, Japan is almost naked unto its enemies.

If North Korea attacked Japan, the US would be compelled to enter the fray. It’s also a poorly kept secret that the US would likely use tactical nuclear weapons to blunt a North Korean invasion of South Korea- just what General Douglas MacArthur urged half a century ago during the Korean War. A war between China and Japan over the contested South China Sea could erupt anytime

In short, Japan, South Korea or both could drag the US into a nuclear confrontation with North Korea or China that it wished to avoid. Because these nations lack any strategic retaliatory weapons to face down their enemies, they would either have to surrender to blackmail from North Korea and China or beg the US to join the nuclear confrontation.

Both Seoul and Tokyo understand how vulnerable they are. In the mid-1970’s, South Korea’s tough leader, Park Cheung-hee, sought to develop nuclear weapons. The South Korean effort was stopped by intense US pressure and even threats.

Japan has covertly worked on nuclear weapons for decades. This writer even saw plans for a Japanese atomic weapon. Today, Japan’s high-tech industry is believed to be able to deploy a nuclear bomb within 90 days of a go decision. I also believe that Switzerland has a similar secret capability.

Ending the pretense of nuclear virginity would make North Asia safer. China and North Korea would be much less likely to threaten Japan and South Korea if these latter nations had nuclear retaliatory forces and anti-missile systems.

Anyway, why can’t these grown-up democracies in Japan and South Korea have nuclear weapons when Washington has secretly allowed India and Israel to build powerful nuclear arsenals?

Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2016

 

[mzkitty]

24m
Report: At least 3 rockets landed in Kabul, Afghanistan - TOLO News

39m
More: Sound of explosions heard in Kabul, Afghanistan, occurred shortly after US Secretary of State John Kerry left city - @AhMukhtar

45m
Report of loud explosions heard from diplomatic district in Kabul, Afghanistan - @ShafiSharifi

 

[Housecarl]

24m
Report: At least 3 rockets landed in Kabul, Afghanistan - TOLO News

39m
More: Sound of explosions heard in Kabul, Afghanistan, occurred shortly after US Secretary of State John Kerry left city - @AhMukhtar

45m
Report of loud explosions heard from diplomatic district in Kabul, Afghanistan - @ShafiSharifi

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/nati...imilar-Problems-in-Afghanistan-375124891.html

Explosions Hit Kabul After Kerry Makes Surprise Visit to Meet With Afghan Leaders

Kerry will meet with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his rival, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah

By Bradley Klapper

Two rockets exploded in Kabul Saturday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry left the Afghan capital after meeting with rival government leaders.

The trip was unannounced, the second such trip in two days. Kerry first arrived in Iraq on Friday.

Kerry met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on Saturday, who committed to pushing reforms after his picks for attorney general and interior minister won long-sought Cabinet confirmation. Kerry pleaded with the government's power-sharing leaders to bury their "factional divisions" for the good of the country.

Ghani could not cite progress toward ending a bitter feud with Afghanistan's chief executive, Abdullah Abdullah, that has hobbled the Kabul government for 18 months. The unwieldy arrangement, which Kerry helped to forge, has left interim ministers in critical positions while the U.S. ally struggles to confront lawlessness, corruption and the Taliban's resilient and perhaps expanding insurgency.

At least two rockets landed in Kabul after Kerry left the country. The explosions did not cause any injuries, according to a police official who spoke to NBC News. The cause of the explosions was not clear.

U.S. officials confirmed there was no damaged to the U.S. Embassy or to any miilitary buildings. Officials would not say whether they believed the blasts to be related to Kerry's visit.

"Democracy requires credible institutions," Kerry told reporters at the end of his brief stopover in Afghanistan on his way to Japan for a meeting of foreign ministers. "More than that, it requires people from different political, ethnic and geographic factions to be able to come together and work toward a common good."

Ghani, at a news conference, hailed the Cabinet votes in parliament as a turning point. Progress on that front "assures us there will be fundamental, comprehensive reforms," Ghani said through an interpreter.

Kerry backed him up and stressed the need for a unified approach between the competing Ghani and Abdullah camps, hardened still even two years after a contested presidential election.

In the coming months, NATO and international donor summits could define long-term security and aid commitments critical to the Afghan government's survival, so Kerry sought clarity on Afghanistan's direction.

Kerry called on the Taliban to re-engage in peace talks dormant for almost a year, and said there was no change now in President Barack Obama's plans for troop levels in Afghanistan. There are 9,800 U.S. forces on the ground in Afghanistan, and that number is set to fall to 5,500 next year.

"But he always has said he will listen to his commanders on the ground," Kerry said.

Gen. John Nicholson, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, is reviewing needs; Kerry said that would guide Obama's final decision.

Ghani declined to weigh in on what he said was a U.S. matter.

For Kerry, the stop in Kabul was his second visit in as many days to a country that the United States long has wished to stabilize. On Friday in Baghdad, Kerry backed efforts by Iraq's prime minister to settle a political crisis and stressed the importance of having a "unified and functioning government" to confront the Islamic State group.

Kerry met alone with Ghani and then included Abdullah in a lengthy three-way discussion on a porch in the presidential compound. Kerry also participated in separate talks with the foreign minister on security, governance and economic development.

"We need to make certain that the government of national unity is doing everything possible to be unified and to deliver to the people of Afghanistan," Kerry said at that event, calling on Ghani and Abdullah to move past "factional divisions."

The challenges in Afghanistan are not unlike those Kerry encountered in Iraq.

The U.S. invaded both countries under President George W. Bush and hoped to foster stable democracies. It has not happened, even though the U.S. has spent some $2 trillion so far and several thousand Americans have died in military operations.

Governments in both countries lack control over significant areas. Afghanistan's war against the Taliban is entering its 15th year. Iraq is still trying to muster the strength for an assault on Mosul, its second largest city, and other places held by IS.

Sectarian and personal rivalries threaten both governments. Security vacuums in each threaten the United States.

Despite Obama's pledges to end both wars, American troops cannot just leave. In Iraq, there are 3,780 now.

Obama has less than 10 months to leave both places in better shape, but the strategies differ: In Iraq, the U.S. seeks the destruction of IS; in Afghanistan, it hopes to draw the Taliban into peace talks.

It is not clear why the Taliban would seek out negotiations at a time the militants appear to making gains in the south, and the fighting season is only just beginning.

First, however, the Kabul government might need to reconcile its own divisions.

The Ghani-Abdullah partnership has never been defined and the government is in disarray, with fears it could collapse due to corruption and incompetence.

The bitterness stems from a belief in Abdullah's camp that the election was stolen and gifted to Ghani — an anthropologist who lived in the U.S. for three decades — as someone with whom Washington could more easily do business.

The leaders also are seen as pandering to different constituencies: in Ghani's case, the majority ethnic Pashtuns, and in Abdullah's, the Tajiks.

And Afghanistan's challenges are only deepening. The country's economy is contracting, unemployment stands at 25 percent, Afghanistan needs to secure more international aid, and an IS affiliate may now be making inroads.

Published at 5:44 AM EDT on Apr 9, 2016

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-belgium-blast-arrests-idUSKCN0X60HP

World | Sat Apr 9, 2016 5:33pm EDT
Related: World

Last main Brussels and Paris suspects held, threat remains

BRUSSELS | By Robert-Jan Bartunek

The main identified suspects in Islamic State attacks on Paris and Brussels are now dead or in custody after Belgian investigators charged two men on Saturday with aiding last month's Brussels suicide bombers.

But while pleased with the performance of Belgium's hitherto much criticized security services, Prime Minister Charles Michel warned that further threats to Europe were still live: "We are positive about the recent developments in the investigation," he told a news conference. "But we know we have to stay alert."

Mohamed Abrini, believed to have helped prepare the Nov. 13 Paris attacks, was seized on a Brussels street on Friday. Prosecutors said he confessed to being the "man in the hat" seen at the city's airport with two suicide bombers on March 22. That further confirmed close links between the two operations.

In a statement, prosecutors also said they had confirmed that a second fugitive seized separately on Friday in Brussels was indeed the man seen with a third suicide bomber on March 22 who struck shortly afterward on the Belgian's capital's metro.

Identified by officials as Osama K. and widely named in local media as a 28-year-old Swede called Osama Krayem, this man was also filmed buying bags used to carry the Brussels bombs and his fingerprints were found, like Abrini's, in an apartment used as a bomb factory and safe house for the Brussels attackers.

Also like Abrini, Krayem was identified as associating with the prime surviving Paris suspect Salah Abdeslam in the days and weeks before the November bloodbath that left 130 people dead.

As with other suspects in both Paris and Brussels attacks, police believe Krayem returned from fighting with Islamic State in Syria via refugee boats last summer reaching Greek islands.


ON TRAIL

The arrests have crowned a month of success and dramatic failure for Belgian security services, which have been under huge pressure at home and abroad since it became clear that the Paris attacks were organized from Brussels by local men, mostly known to police, who appear to have orders and funds from Syria.

On March 15, a raid on a house in Brussels left one wanted militant dead and put police on the trail of Abdeslam, who, with Abrini, rented accommodation for the Paris attackers and whose brother had blown himself up at a cafe on Nov. 13. Police moved on March 18 to arrest Abdeslam and another wanted Paris suspect.

That may have precipitated the attacks, now blamed on Abrini and Krayem, in which two suicide bombers struck Brussels airport and another the city's metro, killing a total of 32 people. All three bombers were being hunted for links to the Paris attacks.

The rolling up of wanted lists, however, has not reassured many European security services. Many such arrests have led to others, previously not sought, being detained and often charged.

Of two other men taken in and charged with terrorism offences following the arrests of Abrini and Krayem, one, Bilal El Makhoukhi, had until last month been serving out under electronic monitoring a five-year sentence for recruiting fighters for Syria.

Convicted early last year in the trial of dozens of members of an organization known as Sharia4Belgium, Makhoukhi, who lost a leg fighting in Syria himself, had been freed only last month, Justice Minister Koen Geens told reporters.

Abrini was tracked down the day after police released new images of "the man in the hat" pushing a laden baggage trolley similar to those of the two suicide bombers alongside him.

Of his confession, a spokesman said: "He had no choice."

Abrini, 31, was well known to police as a petty criminal and drug dealer who was a regular at the bar run by the Abdeslam brothers in the Molenbeek district of Brussels which is home to many other Moroccan immigrant families. Prosecutors said he told them that he had sold the hat he used to conceal his features.


(Additional reporting by Foo Yun Chee; Editing by Alastair Macdonald and Alison Williams)

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/09/asia/bangladesh-al-qaeda-atheists/

Bangladeshi al Qaeda wing declares war on atheists

By Ivan Watson, CNN
Updated 2:48 PM ET, Sat April 9, 2016

(CNN) — Bangladeshi officials are investigating a claim of responsibility by al Qaeda's wing in South Asia for the machete murder of a secular blogger in Dhaka.

"We are seriously looking into it," said Anisul Huq, Bangladesh's minister for law.

"Unless we are totally sure that this claim ... is authentic, I don't think we will be commenting on it."

According to the jihadist monitoring group SITE, Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) claims that the movement's Bangladesh branch "carried out an operation to slaughter" Nazimuddin Samad in the nation's capital.

Bangladesh police say the 26-year-old writer and graduate student was ambushed by attackers Wednesday night. The attackers slashed Samad with machetes and shot him before escaping the scene on a motorcycle.

Police tell CNN they have yet to make any arrests in the wake of the murder.

In its statement, al Qaeda accused Samad of being an "enemy of Allah." It lists three of Samad's posts on Facebook going back to 2013 as examples of his insults against Islam.

Murdered blogger's stepdaughter: Dad taught me to be informed, bold, unafraid

War against atheism

The group effectively declares war against atheist writers who dare to challenge al Qaeda's strict interpretation of Islam.

It also threatens to target judges, lawyers, engineers and doctors "who don't allow others to follow the rulings of the Islamic Shariah."

Samad is the sixth writer or publisher of atheist material to have been murdered in Dhaka in the past 14 months.

Is there a way to protect Bangladeshi writers?

Bangladeshi authorities have previously denied that foreign groups such as al Qaeda or ISIS have taken root in the majority Muslim country.

Instead, it says the murders of secular writers in the capital, as well as a series of deadly attacks against Hindu, Christian and Shi'ite minority groups across the country, are the work of homegrown extremists.

Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan echoed those sentiments on Saturday. He said the issue is not freedom of expression but tolerance of other religions.

"The bloggers, they should control their writing," he told CNN. "Our country is a secular state... I want to say that people should be careful not to hurt anyone by writing anything -- hurt any religion, any people's beliefs, any religious leaders."

The 'sin' that could get you killed in Bangladesh

The Bangladeshi government has vowed to bring killers to justice.

Law Minister Huq pointed to the December 2015 death sentence handed down to two men convicted of killing blogger Ahmed Rajib in 2013.

Asked if the government would adopt new measures to protect Bangladesh's embattled community of atheists, Huq said security forces had "intensified protective mechanisms."

Several top government officials insist security forces will provide protection to writers who feel their lives are at risk.


Atheists flee Bangladesh

But members of the besieged "free-thinker" intellectual community in Bangladesh say they do not trust the police, because in recent years authorities prosecuted several writers for "insulting religion" in their published work.

"I have not gone to the police because police actually tried to arrest me in 2013," said one atheist blogger in Bangladesh.

He asked not to be identified, due to the fact that he is on a hit list of 84 atheist writers published by a jihadi group more than a year ago. The blogger is part of a network that has helped at least a dozen colleagues flee Bangladesh.


"This community is shattered," the writer said.

To avoid being murdered, the blogger said he stopped posting comments online, changed his phone number and place of residence and regularly changed his route to and from work.

He said he felt like it was a de facto crime to admit to being an atheist in this majority Muslim country.

"I'm definitely living in fear," the writer said.

In 2015, the freedom of press watchdog organization Committee to Protect Journalists listed Bangladesh as 12th in the world on its Global Impunity Index highlighting countries "where journalists are slain and the killers go free."

CNN's Roshni Majumdar in New Delhi contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1201278/north-korea-tests-a-fancy-new-rocket-engine/

New DPRK ICBM Engine

by Jeffrey Lewis | April 9, 2016 | 4 Comments

Yesterday, Melissa Hanham and I gave a talk to a meeting of US and Russian experts about North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile programs. The presentation is part of a high-level dialogue that seeks to resume US-Russian cooperation on nonproliferation, even as relations are in the toilet. Melissa tweeted some pictures from last night’s dinner, which gives a sense of some of the participants — including California Governor Jerry Brown and the Executive Director of the CTBTO, Lassina Zerbo.

The North Koreans kindly spiced up our meeting by testing a new engine for their ICBMs. It is not good news.


One of the conversations we had concerned North Korea’s new series of the road-mobile intercontinental-range ballistic missiles, known as as the KN-08 (Hwasong-13) and KN-14 (Hwasong-14, below).

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/04/KN14-1024x635.jpg

epa04974362 A picture released by the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on 12 October 2015 shows large missiles, believed to be KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missiles, appearing during a large-scale military parade at Pyongyang's Kim Il-sung Square, in Pyongyang, North Korea, 10 October 2015, to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea. EPA/KCNA -- BEST QUALITY AVAILABLE -- SOUTH KOREA OUT

We’ve often wondered what to make of these missiles.

North Korea’s missile programs are largely based on engines derived from the small number of Scud missiles that North Korean imported from Egypt. The Nodong is just a super-sized Scud engine, while the the first stage of the Taepodong-2 (aka Unha/Kwangmyongsong-series) is just a cluster of Nodong engines. These rockets all use relatively simple propellants (IRNFA and Kerosene), which severely limits their performance.

When North Korea showed off the Musudan missile, analysts took notice. The Musudan appears to be an enlarged version of a different Soviet missile — not a Scud, but the SS-N-6 (R-27) submarine launched ballistic missile. The SS-N-6 engine uses a much more energetic propellants — nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) and UDMH — and is in general much fancier. What if North Korea replaced its Scud-based missiles with a series of missiles based on this technology? This subject pops up in a paper the US distributed to MTCR adherents that is now available thanks to Wikileaks:


“Recently, North Korea has developed a new land-mobile IRBM –called the Musudan by the United States. The Musudan is a single-stage missile and may have a range of up to 4,000 km with a 500 kg payload. The Musudan is derived from the SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and represents a substantial advance in North Korea’s liquid propellant technology, as the SS-N-6 had a much more advanced engine and used more energetic propellants — unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) and nitrogen tetroxide (N204) — than those used in Scud-type missiles. Development of the Musudan with this more advanced propulsion technology allows North Korea to build even longer-range missiles — or shorter range missiles with greater payload capacity — than would be possible using Scud-type technology.”

In a different cable, the US raised the possibility that North Korea could “further develop the technology for an IRBM based on their new MRBM, in the same way the No Dong was a path to the Taepo Dong” as a path to an ICBM.

If you are interested, there is a nice discussion of early-generation Soviet propellants in a declassified CIA estimate from 1962. For our purposes, the most interesting aspect is the chart showing the performance curves of different propellant types. “Nitrogen tetroxide-UDMH” represent a significant improvement over Scud fuels. (North Korea’s use of RFNA-Kerosene falls below the lowest curve in the chart, RNFA-UDMH).

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/04/Specific_impulse.jpg

That brings us to the KN-08 and the KN-14. The diameter of these missiles is not large — probably less than 2 meters. That only leaves room for no more than two, maybe three, engines of types known in North Korea. So do North Korea’s road-mobile ballistic missiles use Nodong engines or something more interesting?

On March 9, North Korean state media released a partial image of the back-end of the KN-08. Although the image is obscured, it seems to confirm that the first stage comprises only two rocket engines. There is a tantalizing hint, too. The nozzle looks too small to be a Nodong engine. That would suggest that the KN-08 uses a pair of 4D10 engines from the SS-N-6.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/04/rear_KN08-1024x680.png

But that seems — or rather, it seemed — like a technical stretch. The 4D10 engine is a complicated piece of work, starting with the fact that it is submerged in the fuel tank. My friend George Herbert sent along a pair of images that show how much plumbing needs to be rearranged.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/04/front4d10-267x300.jpg

Clustering a pair of engines like that would be quite a feat — not impossible, but perhaps rather more than we’ve seen the North Koreans do before. Pulling off a stunt like that would represent an advance in North Korea’s engineering capabilities.

And now this. Yesterday, North Korea announced that it conducted a static engine test of “a new type high-power engine of inter-continental ballistic rocket.” From the images, it seems the most likely explanation is that North Korea tested a pair of 4D10 engines from the SS-N-6 for the KN-08 (and possibly KN-14).

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/04/2016-4-09-1-02.jpg

Why do we say that?

First, the rocket plume appears to be exiting from two nozzles. That would suggest a pair of engines.

Second, it is not possible to see the engines themselves. Instead, the engines appear to be submerged in a large tank, which is the configuration of the 4D10. It does seem that there are some vernier engines visible, which would tend to confirm the 4D10 hypothesis.

Third, the coloration of the plume looks much cleaner than Scud fuel. Again, that would be consistent with the more energetic propellant associated with the 4D10. George and John Schilling happen to be a conference of rocket designers. They’ve done a simple crowdsourcing exercise and the consensus seems to be settling around more advanced propellants.

We’ve previously considered the possibility that North Korea might cluster 4D10 engines in an ICBM, but clustering 4D10 engines implied a level of sophistication we had not previously observed in North Korea’s missile programs. Well, I guess there is a first time for everything.

So what?

The KN-08 and KN-14 are far more capable than more conservative estimates that assume a pair of Nodong engines. The range/payload curve for these missile will jump. John is going to rerun his models, but I would expect the range of the revised KN-08/KN-14 family will now fall at the upper end of his estimates. That means that, rather than simply hitting the West Coast, an operational North Korean ICBM could probably reach targets throughout the United States, including Washington, DC with a nuclear weapon. In other words, the Map of Death is real.

We can stop laughing any time now. The joke is on us.

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2016/04/map.jpg

--

Comments


hblumenk (History)

April 9, 2016 at 3:38 pm


I’ve seen the estimates in Mr. Shillings projections, but even at the higher end they seem to be constrained by the size of the warhead. his “Max” variant can only carry a 1000 kg payload 8000 km. Which would place it in Seattle, not D.C. Do you believe the DPRK is on the verge of creating a more advanced warhead? like moving from the disco ball to something lighter?

Reply


Jeffrey Lewis (History)

April 9, 2016 at 3:47 pm


The disco ball probably weights a few hundred kilograms, plus the aeroshell. That’s pretty close to John’s estimate of a “heavier” warhead.


Michael (History)

April 9, 2016 at 4:23 pm


I have a question. In his most recent analysis John Schilling contends the new North Korean solid fuel rocket rocket motor is 1.25 meters in diameter (http://38north.org/2016/03/jschilling032916/). This would be akin to, and perhaps sharing (although he explicitly and curiously rules this out) a lineage with Iran Sejil missile. How does he draw this this conclusion? Are the photos manipulated to misrepresent the diameter of the motor? My own analysis, and independently of mine, Norbert Brugge both reach a conclusion of a ‘missile with a maximum diameter of 1meter’ , perhaps slightly less (http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets/Diverse/NK-solidfuel-motor/index.htm) The discrepancy is not insignificant. It would suggest the new North Korean solid motor that is roughly comparable to China’s M-9 in a two stage configuration and not as Schilling contends a missile that would ‘weigh 18 tonnes at launch and deliver a 1000 kg warhead to a range of roughly 1800 km. With a lighter 500 kg warhead, the range could be as high as 2600 km’, but instead would be an order less capable, perhaps being able to deliver a 500 kg warhead to cover most, but perhaps not all, of Japan . It would also suggest an incremental development based on the North Korean version of the SS-21 Tochka – the KN-02 rather than a technological leap or the acquisition of foreign missile components. I would welcome thoughts on this!

Reply


Jeffrey Lewis (History)

April 9, 2016 at 4:39 pm


Our measurements are a bit larger than yours — 1.2 m. This is worth discussing!

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20160410000294

Army chief to visit Japan for military talks

Published : 2016-04-10 15:20
Updated : 2016-04-10 15:20

South Korea's Army chief will visit Japan later in the month to hold talks with his counterpart on ways to expand bilateral cooperation, the military said Sunday.

The Army said its Chief of Staff Gen. Jang Jun-gyu will be in Japan on April 17 and 18 and hold a meeting with Gen. Kiyofumi Iwata, the head of Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force.

The talks will be the first of their kind since January 2008, when a meeting took place between the heads of South Korea's and Japan's ground forces in Tokyo.

"Jang will meet senior ranking officers of the Japanese forces as well as South Korean personnel undergoing training in Japan's military schools," the Army said.

It said emphasis will be placed on furthering personnel exchange between military officers from the two countries.

"The latest visit does not have anything to do with the joint acquisition and cross-servicing agreement that has been mentioned by Seoul and Tokyo," an Army source stressed.

The visit is expected to help speed up exchange between the top brasses of the two countries, following a trip made by Japan's top naval commander to South Korea late last month.

Bilateral relations between the neighboring countries have been rocky due to resentment over Japan's harsh colonial rule (1910-45) over the Korean Peninsula in the last century. Tokyo's efforts to dodge responsibility over its role in the use of sexual slaves during World War II, its ongoing effort to whitewash its history textbooks and its claims on Dokdo, South Korea's easternmost territory in the East Sea, have all strained relations.

The Army then said Gen. Jang will be in Washington this week to meet his U.S. counterpart Gen. Mark Milley to discuss outstanding issues related to the South Korea-U.S. military alliance. He will visit various command facilities in the United States during his trip.

He is expected to touch on mutual security issues and ways to strengthen exchange of personnel that can promote closer bilateral ties.

Washington maintains 28,500 troops in South Korea to safeguard it from invasion by the North. The troop presence takes into account that the Korean War (1950-53) ended in a cease fire and not a formal peace treaty. Technically, the two Koreas are still at war, with over a million troops facing off against each other across the military demarcation line that bisects the Korean Peninsula. (Yonhap)

 

[Housecarl]

Navy Officer charged with espionage in military court at Norfolk Naval Station
Started by Meadowlark‎, Yesterday 05:01 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ge-in-military-court-at-Norfolk-Naval-Station


The threat from CHINA: Xi warns Obama against threatening China’s sovereignty
Started by Heliobas Disciple‎, 04-02-2016 12:50 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...against-threatening-China’s-sovereignty/page2


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl.../south-china-sea-warning-looms-over-g7-summit

South China Sea warning looms over G7 summit

Meeting begins with call to end nuclear weapons, but Beijing says Japanese plan to raise maritime concerns threatens to overshadow proceedings

PUBLISHED : Monday, 11 April, 2016, 12:05am
UPDATED : Monday, 11 April, 2016, 12:05am
Comments 4

Associated Press
Liu Zhen
Reuters

The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven nations began a summit in Japan on Sunday by calling for an end to nuclear weapons, but Beijing warned the meeting’s “deserving concerns” could be overshadowed by a Japanese move to make the South China Sea a key item on the agenda.

The meeting is taking place in Hiroshima, a Japanese city obliterated by a US atomic bomb more than seven decades ago, but Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Ki*shida, who presides over the two-day annual meeting this year, said the ministers would also discuss maritime security.

Beijing has voiced strong opposition to the summit’s agenda, labelling Tokyo’s move to make disputes over the sea a key talking point “a provocation” that would shift the focus of the meeting from “more deserving concerns”.

Japanese officials expect the G7 ministers to voice opposition to any unilateral action to change the status quo in the sea and to encourage Western *nations to get more involved on behalf of Southeast Asian countries.

“I hope that a strong message of peace, stability and prosperity will be sent out to the world at the Hiroshima G7 foreign ministers’ meeting,” Kishida said at the start of the welcome reception.

G7 showdown looms as China pressures Japan to leave South China Sea off the agenda(

Confrontations over the sea, particularly between China and the US, are causing growing concerns. Washington has stepped up criticism and surveillance of Chinese activities in the sea, while European diplomats have called for international laws and rules to be obeyed.

Beijing has hit back, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying G7 involvement would do nothing to help find a solution.

Wang’s comment was followed by a scathing article by state-run news agency Xinhua, which claimed Tokyo’s real reason for bringing the subject up was to “provoke the West into lashing out at China”.

But the Xinhua article said a statement from the G7 meeting might be expected to refer to the disputes, but was unlikely to denounce Beijing’s actions.

At their 2015 meeting in Lübeck, Germany, the G7 foreign ministers issued a declaration on maritime security in which they called for the peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law and for related court decisions to be *respected.

“It is unlikely that China’s position on and actions in the South China Sea would be altered by a G7 statement,” said Tao Wen*zhao, an expert on China-US relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Top US diplomat John Kerry on landmark visit to Hiroshima for G7 foreign ministers meeting(

Cui Hongjian, head of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said any pressure would be limited as the Europeans did not want to openly accuse China of any wrongdoing. “Like last year, the European countries wouldn’t want to take a clear side, or explicitly criticise China about the South China Sea,” Cui said.

Tackling terrorism and nuclear disarmament are also high on the meeting’s agenda.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is to join his counterparts from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan today to visit an atomic bomb museum and lay flowers at a cenotaph.

A US warplane dropped a nuclear bomb on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, reducing the city to ashes and killing 140,000 people by the end of that year.


Additional reporting by Kyodo and Reuters

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...enda-g-7-foreign-ministers-meeting-hiroshima/

Terrorism, refugee flood, North Korea nuclear threat on G-7 foreign minister meeting agenda in Hiroshima

by Ayako Mie
Staff Writer
Apr 11, 2016

HIROSHIMA – The Group of Seven foreign ministers’ meeting kicked off Sunday in the city of Hiroshima, paving the way for the G-7 leaders’ late-May summit in Mie Prefecture.

At the end of the two-day meeting, foreign ministers from Japan, the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union are expected to adopt a communique, as well as the Hiroshima Declaration, which will aim for a nuclear weapons-free world, and a statement regarding maritime security.

The meeting and the statements will set the stage for the G-7 summit scheduled for May 26 and 27 in Ise-Shima, Mie Prefecture. A total of 11 related meetings will be held in Japan through September, including a gathering of G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Sendai immediately before the summit.

On the first day of their meeting, the ministers discussed global concerns such as terrorism and refugee issues. Terrorism is the most imminent threat to Europe, which has been a frequent target of attacks, notably by the Islamic State extremist group.

Last November, Islamic State launched a series of shooting and bomb attacks in Paris, in which 130 people were killed. The group also claimed responsibility for two other attacks in Brussels last month. In those attacks, 32 people died.

Brussels came under fire after miscommunications and other errors failed to prevent the country’s deadliest-ever terrorist attack. Belgian authorities admitted they missed an alert from Turkish authorities about Ibrahim El Bakraoui, one of the Brussels suicide bombers, who was arrested on suspicion of terrorism activities last year in Turkey and later deported to the Netherlands.

The Belgian prosecutor’s office said El Bakraoui’s brother, Khalid, who along with Ibrahim also detonated a suicide belt at Brussels Airport, had been on the run since December in connection with the Paris attacks.

These acknowledgements underscore that the European Union and the global community need better coordination to fight terrorism.

The G-7 foreign ministers denounced the indiscriminate killings by terrorists and agreed to lead global cooperation to fight violent and extremist attacks.

Japan’s foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, also said that G-7 nations should complement each other by utilizing their competitive edge in fighting terrorism and dealing with the refugee crisis, another big concern for European Union nations.

Although Germany has found itself one of the biggest destinations of refugees, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was absent from the first day’s meetings because his flight was delayed in China.

Ministers also talked about the Middle East and regional security in Asia, including in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Kishida said the G-7 foreign ministers all agreed it is important to abide by international laws.

Kishida also said the ministers had “heated discussions” about North Korea. They condemned the North’s escalating provocations, including its nuclear test in January and the launch of a satellite-carrying long-range rocket in February, which many regarded as an ICBM test. The ministers denounced the action and vowed to work together.

For Kishida, a third-generation Lower House lawmaker from Hiroshima, one of the main events of the meeting will take place Monday when he hosts the dignitaries during a visit to the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum.

This is the first time G-7 foreign ministers and nuclear powers, including the United States, France, and Germany, will visit the museum. They will also lay floral tributes at the cenotaph located inside Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park.

Kishida has repeatedly said he hopes to bring global leaders to Hiroshima to drive home the reality of the atomic bomb. To this end, he hopes to bridge differences between the world’s nuclear and nonnuclear powers by adopting the Hiroshima Declaration on Monday.

But any declaration is unlikely to mention “the inhuman aspect of atomic bombs,” something Japan has emphasized for a long time.

Last year, when Japan proposed a U.N. resolution including such a phrase, the U.S., Britain and France abstained from casting their votes.

In an interview with the Chugoku Shimbun, a Hiroshima daily, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. supports a world without nuclear weapons.

Yet he said the U.S. will pursue the goal by taking what he referred to as realistic and pragmatic measures.

Kerry added that it is critical to find methods to make progress on nuclear disarmament to reduce the risk to America, its allies and the entire human race.

Meanwhile, as this is the first time G-7 meetings have been held in Asia in eight years, and Japan is the only G-7 member from the region, Kishida hopes to take the initiative in talking about territorial issues, including disputes centering on the South China Sea, where Beijing has carried out massive land reclamation projects and deployed radar and surface-to-air missiles.

Without naming China, the statement on maritime security, which is likely to be adopted Monday, is expected to say countries should abide by international court rulings in dealing with territorial disputes.

In the coming month, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague is expected to issue a ruling over the territorial dispute between the Philippines and China.

Beijing has expressed concern about Japan, which it sees as siding with other Southeast Asian nations that are at odds with China regarding the territorial dispute in the South China Sea.

After talking with Steinmeier on Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said bringing up the South China Sea issue at the Hiroshima conference will offer no solutions but only affect regional stability.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/11/w...l-target-was-france-prosecutor-says.html?_r=0

Europe

Revelation on Brussels Attackers Fuels Fears of New Assaults

By ALISSA J. RUBIN and ERIC SCHMITT
APRIL 10, 2016

BRUSSELS — The announcement on Sunday that the plotters of last month’s Brussels terror attacks had originally intended to hit Paris again only heightened the concern among police and intelligence agencies that shadowy Islamic State networks could unleash new attacks at any time, not only in France and Belgium but in other European capitals.

As intelligence experts and officials took stock of what they have learned since the Nov. 13 assaults in and around Paris, which killed 130 people, several things have come into focus. The scale of the Islamic State’s operations in Europe are still not known, but they appear to be larger and more layered than investigators at first realized; if the Paris and Brussels attacks are any model, the plotters will rely on local criminal networks in addition to committed extremists.

Even as the United States, its allies and Russia have killed leaders of the Islamic State, and have rolled back some of the extremist organization’s gains on the battlefields of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State appears to be posing a largely hidden and lethal threat across much of Europe.

When Belgian prosecutors announced that Mohamed Abrini, one of the men arrested on Friday, had confessed to being the mysterious third man in the Brussels Airport bombing, it seemed to mark a rare victory for Belgian law enforcement, which has struggled to track down extremists. But it also was a reminder of the ease with which the Islamic State’s operatives move across borders and the shifting roles that suspects play: According to prosecutors, Mr. Abrini was a logistician in the Paris attacks but was meant to be a bomber in the Brussels attack — except that his bomb failed to explode.

There are almost certainly similar cells that are active in non-French-speaking countries and that have not yet surfaced. Britain, Germany and Italy are thought to be high on the list of Islamic State targets.

It adds up to a long road ahead in Europe for law enforcement and intelligence agencies but also for citizens who are having to learn to adapt to an array of new security precautions and more intrusive surveillance, especially in public places.

“We are not finished yet with the job of finding everyone who is in this big network of Paris and Brussels,” said Jean-Charles Brisard, the head of the French Center for the Analysis of Terrorism in Paris. “Every time progress is made, we add another few people to the list of people we are looking for.”

Brussels Terror Attacks
Johan Van Steen, Legal Expert and Photographer, Dies in Brussels Attacks APR 8

More Suspects in Brussels Attacks Arrested in Belgium APR 8

Radicalization of a Promising Student Turned Bomb Maker in Brussels APR 8

Senate Takes Steps to Tighten Airport Security APR 7

Rattled by Attacks, Many Belgians Still Want Nation Split in Two APR 7


It is sobering to look at the number of people believed to have some connection to the Paris and Brussels attacks: 36 are suspected of being active participants to varying degrees in organizing or carrying them out. Of those, 13 are dead, and most of the rest are in custody. A handful have been released but are subject to conditions, like daily check-ins at a police station.

Others are probably lying low or on the run. What worries investigators is that many of the participants in the Paris-Brussels network were recruited by a preacher in the Brussels district of Molenbeek, Khalid Zerkani. He was tried twice in Belgium, accused of recruiting more than 50 young men to join the fight in Syria and helping to finance their journey to the Middle East. Many of those recruits were also named in those trials and tried in absentia.

“There are still many people involved who were part of the Zerkani network, who were convicted in absentia — at least five to 10 — and we don’t know where they are or what they might do,” Mr. Brisard said.

While they could turn out to be more minor players, they could also emerge able organizers of new assaults. Among Mr. Zerkani’s recruits, prosecutors say, were Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the on-the-ground commander of the Paris attacks, and Reda Kriket, who was arrested on March 24 in a suburb of Paris. Mr. Kriket has been accused of being in the final stages of planning an attack in France involving “an arsenal of weapons and explosives of an unprecedented size,” said François Molins, the Paris prosecutor.

From the ammunition and material found it appears that a highly lethal attack was averted. Mr. Kriket had Kalashnikov assault rifles, a submachine gun, pistols, ammunition and four boxes containing thousands of small steel balls.

Four men in touch with Mr. Kriket, who were arrested in Rotterdam in the Netherlands, had in their possession 45 kilograms of ammunition, according to the Dutch Public Broadcaster, NOS. That is enough ammunition for 2,500 rounds, which is enough to supply as many as a dozen gunmen with multiple magazines.

Graphic

Uncovering the Links Between the Brussels and Paris Attackers
At least two of the attackers are believed to have had roles in both plots.

Mr. Kriket’s connection to the Paris and Brussels cells that carried out the attacks in those cities was not clear, and experts have differing views, but it raises the possibility that there are other, similar cells in France and Belgium as well as farther afield.

“The cells are kept quite separate,” said Claude Moniquet, a former French intelligence officer who now works in Belgium.

He added that so far investigators had not learned much about Mr. Kriket either from Salah Abdeslam, who prosecutors say was the only one of the 10 men directly involved in the Paris attacks to survive, or from Mr. Abrini, who was arrested on Friday and is accused of being involved in the logistics for the Paris attacks. Prosecutors say Mr. Abrini has also acknowledged accompanying the two suicide bombers at the Brussels airport.

Western intelligence and counterterrorism officials say their working assumption is that there are Islamic State networks in two or more European countries in addition to those in France and Belgium.

“Other Islamic State cells are highly likely to be in existence across Western Europe, preparing and organizing further operations, and awaiting direction from the group’s central leadership to execute,” said Matthew Henman, the head of IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center in London.

“A key area of focus is gaining a better understanding of how these cells are structured and their organizational and operational methods,” he said.

Mr. Henman, reflecting the views of half a dozen intelligence, counterterrorism and military officials interviewed in Europe last week, said the authorities’ working assumption of how the Islamic State structures its external operations in Europe might be shifting.

Officials believed that the Islamic State had developed an overarching network of facilitators in Europe over the last few years to buy weapons, rent cars and reserve hotel rooms for teams of operatives who had previously traveled to, or were returning from, Iraq or Syria.

But after Brussels, Mr. Henman said, the thinking now reflects the belief that the operation may instead be made up of self-contained cells, with individuals who can perform multiple jobs as needed.

The British authorities are on alert, and the threat level in Britain remains at “severe,” meaning that an attack is “highly likely.”

The Islamic State’s threats are in some ways easier to fulfill in France and Belgium than elsewhere because of the large number of French-speaking foreign fighters, many of whom are European citizens from those countries.

Of the foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq, an estimated 5,000 to 6,000 are from Europe. About 1,800 people have left or tried to leave France to fight in Syria and Iraq, according to recent statements by Bernard Cazeneuve, the French interior minister. An additional 450 have gone to those countries from Belgium, according to estimates by analysts in Europe.

The announcement on Sunday that the Islamic State had aimed to strike France again came from the Belgian federal prosecutor’s office. “Numerous elements in the
investigation have shown that the terrorist group initially had the intention to strike in France again,” the office said in a statement.

“Eventually, surprised by the speed of the progress in the ongoing investigation, they urgently took the decision to strike in Brussels,” the statement said.

In the attacks in the two capitals, a total of 162 people died and 753 were wounded.

-

Alissa J. Rubin reported from Brussels, and Eric Schmitt from London and Naples, Italy. Aurelien Breeden contributed reporting from Paris, and C.J. Chivers from the United States.

Related Coverage

- Man in Hat in Brussels Airport Attack Is in Custody, Belgium Says APRIL 9, 2016

- Radicalization of a Promising Student Turned Bomb Maker in Brussels APRIL 8, 2016

- More Suspects in Brussels Attacks Arrested in Belgium APRIL 8, 2016

 

[Housecarl]

It is going to be only a matter of time before one of these "front line" countries breaks out the belt fed GPMGs....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hundreds-injured-as-migrants-macedonian-border-police-clash/

AP/ April 10, 2016, 8:49 PM

Hundreds injured as migrants, Macedonian border police clash

IDOMENI, Greece -- Migrants waged running battles with Macedonian police Sunday after they were stopped from scaling the border fence with Greece near the border town of Idomeni, and aid agencies reported that hundreds of stranded travelers were injured.

Macedonian police used tear gas, stun grenades, plastic bullets and a water cannon to repel the migrants, many of whom responded by throwing rocks over the fence at police. Greek police observed from their side of the frontier but did not intervene.

More than 50,000 refugees and migrants have been stranded in Greece after Balkan countries closed their borders to the massive flow of refugees pouring into Europe. Around 11,000 remain camped out at the border with Macedonia, ignoring instructions from the government to move to organized shelters as they hold out hope to reach Western Europe.

Clashes continued in the afternoon as migrant groups twice tried to overwhelm Macedonian border security. The increasing use of tear gas reached families in their nearby tents in Idomeni's makeshift camp. Many camp dwellers, chiefly women and children, fled into farm fields to escape the painful gas.

Observers held out hope that evening rainfall, which began about seven hours into the clashes, would dampen hostilities.

The aid agency Doctors Without Borders estimated that their medical volunteers on site treated about 300 people for various injuries.

Achilleas Tzemos, deputy field coordinator of Doctors Without Borders, told the AP that the injured included about 200 experiencing breathing problems from the gas, 100 others with cuts, bruises and impact injuries from nonlethal plastic bullets. He said six of the most seriously injured were hospitalized.

Macedonian police said 23 members of the country's security forces were injured, including 14 police officers and nine soldiers. Five of the police officers sustained serious injuries.

The clashes began soon after an estimated 500 people gathered at the fence. Many said they were responding to Arabic language fliers distributed Saturday in the camp urging people to attempt to breach the fence Sunday morning and "go to Macedonia on foot."

A five-member migrant delegation approached Macedonian police to ask whether the border was about to open. When Macedonian police replied that this wasn't happening, more than 100, including several children, tried to scale the fence.

Greece criticized the Macedonian police response as excessive.

Giorgos Kyritsis, a spokesman for the government's special commission on refugees, said Macedonian forces had deployed an "indiscriminate use of chemicals, plastic bullets and stun grenades against vulnerable people." But he said blame for Sunday's trouble had to be shared with those in the camp spreading rumors of border openings.

Kyritsis said the Idomeni campers should "not believe the false rumors spread by criminally irresponsible individuals and to cooperate with Greek authorities that guarantee their safe transfer to organized temporary hospitality locations."

Many migrants expressed confusion over the situation, unaware that European Union governments support Macedonia's decision in early March to block the migrant flow from northern Greece. They expressed reluctance to accept Greek offers of better accommodation far away from their often muddy, cold border encampment.

"Europe tells everyone to come, but Macedonia has shut down its borders," said Hassan Mohamed, a 19-year-old Kurd from Aleppo, Syria, who has been at the Idomeni camp for two months alongside his mother, sister and brother.

He dismissed the idea of taking Greece's offer of accommodation elsewhere as "too slow."

Abd Ahmad, 27, an Iraqi Kurd who is traveling with his wife and their 1-year-old daughter, said life in the Idomeni camp was "difficult for the child" - but not nearly as dangerous as conditions back home. He said Islamic State militants killed a 7-year-old sister and 11-year-old brother in Iraq, while another brother already had reached Germany and another sister was in Finland. He remained hopeful that eventually, Macedonian authorities would relent and allow them through.

Greece remains committed to enforcing the EU-Turkey agreement that requires most migrants currently in Greece to be deported back to Turkey. Besides Idomeni, Greece is trying to clear makeshift camps by the end of April at three other locations containing a total of more than 10,000 people: a gas station 11 miles south of Idomeni, the port of Piraeus, and the site of Athens' defunct former airport.

The planned deportation of 6,750 migrants on Greek islands back to nearby Turkey has been suspended because Greek officials, too few in number, have been overwhelmed by the volume of asylum applications.

 

[Housecarl]

Top Iranian Commander: Iran Preparing for Widespread War With US and its Allies
Started by China Connection‎, 04-07-2016 03:29 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ing-for-Widespread-War-With-US-and-its-Allies


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.qconline.com/news/world/...cle_0c2dae3b-08a8-57eb-a32f-cc10ecdb4f7c.html

Analysis: Nuclear deal puts US between Iran and a hard place

MATTHEW LEE, AP Diplomatic Writer
19 min ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration is in a bind. Between Iran and a hard place.

As it seeks to implement, preserve and strengthen the landmark nuclear deal it negotiated with Iran, the administration is being buffeted by criticism from all sides: Iran, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, not to mention members of Congress, including some who supported the agreement.

Eager that a successful deal and a new era in the U.S.-Iran relationship be part of President Barack Obama's legacy, his administration finds itself encouraging foreign trade with Iran even as it forbids most American commerce with the Islamic Republic. Those efforts are complicated by the fact that the United States continues to condemn and try to punish Iranian actions in non-nuclear arenas such as Tehran's support of terrorist groups and belligerence toward Israel.

Under the nuclear deal that took effect in January, Iran curtailed its nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief. Iran has complied with its obligations to date.

But Iran says the economic boon isn't enough because of remaining U.S. economic penalties for its other behavior, and some officials have threatened to walk away from one of Obama's chief foreign policy achievements — the other is the rapprochement with Cuba

Asian and European government and companies, primarily banks, are balking at doing now-legal business with Iran, because of uncertainty over those remaining sanctions. They want written clarification about what current U.S. laws and financial regulations allow them to do. Essentially, they want a promise that the U.S. will not prosecute or punish them for transactions that involve Iran.

Adding to their unease is the 2016 U.S. presidential election, in which the top Republican prospects have pledged to rip up the nuclear deal.

At the same time, Israel, its supporters and Arab nations are crying foul over Iran's continued testing of ballistic missiles as well as its ongoing support for Lebanon's Hezbollah movement, Syrian President Bashar Assad's government and Yemen's Houthi rebels.

They say Iran is as dangerous as ever. Many members of Congress agree and are demanding new sanctions.

While the administration says it remains vehemently opposed to Iran's missile tests and destabilizing activities throughout the Middle East, it insists the nuclear deal has made Iran less of a threat. The cost of walking away from the deal, U.S. officials maintain, will be even more destabilization and a graver threat.

Thus, the U.S. has been thrust into a role of defending Iran on its nuclear deal compliance and condemning its other actions as it simultaneously promotes business with Iran in the context of the new leeway afforded by sanctions relief.

Obama and his national security aides have ruled out allowing Iran access to the U.S. financial system or direct access to U.S. dollars — still prohibited by U.S. law. But they are considering whether, and how, to respond to the Iranian complaints and the European and Asian demands for clarity on the financial rules.

The administration has sent State Department and Treasury officials to try to explain the regulations, but questions remain. Some European leaders, notably French President Francois Hollande, have personally raised the matter with Obama, diplomats say.

Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Secretary of State John Kerry, who negotiated the nuclear deal, argue that the administration must live up to the "letter and spirit" of the sanctions relief. They say Iran has complied and must get the benefits of the agreement even if Tehran continues other objectionable activities. They have left the door open to further sanctions relief, primarily as it concerns foreign businesses trading with Iran.

U.S. lawmakers, many of whom opposed the nuclear deal on principle, have moved to prevent what they say is an administration overreach: a proposal to ease rules relating to the use of the dollar in third-party foreign currency exchanges in support of deals with Iran. Administration officials say such an easing is unnecessary because those transactions are allowed. Still, the suggestion of a change has Capitol Hill on edge.

Despite the uncertainty, the administration has refused so far to say what, if anything, it will do to clear the air.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://abcnews.go.com/International...korea-military-officer-defects-south-38298745

Seoul: Senior North Korea Military Officer Defects to South

By Hyung-jin Kim, Associated Press ·SEOUL, South Korea — Apr 10, 2016, 11:21 PM ET

A colonel from North Korea's military spy agency fled to South Korea last year in a rare senior-level defection, Seoul officials said Monday.

The announcement came three days after Seoul revealed 13 North Koreans working at the same restaurant in a foreign country had defected to the South. It was the largest group defection since North Korea's young leader Kim Jong Un took power in late 2011. South Korean media reported the restaurant is located in the eastern Chinese city of Ningbo.

The colonel worked for the North Korean military's General Reconnaissance Bureau before defecting to South Korea, according to Seoul's Defense Ministry and Unification Ministry. Both ministries refused to provide further details including a motive for the defection.

The reconnaissance agency was believed to be behind two deadly attacks blamed on Pyongyang that killed 50 South Koreans in 2010.

There have been occasional reports of lower-level North Korean soldiers defecting but it is unusual for a colonel to flee to the South.

The highest-level North Korean who took asylum in South Korea has been Hwang Jang-yop, a senior ruling Workers' Party official who once tutored Kim's late dictator father Kim Jong Il. Hwang's 1997 defection was hailed by many South Koreans as an intelligence bonanza and a clear sign that the North's political system was inferior to the South's. Hwang died in 2010.

More than 29,000 North Koreans have defected to South Korea since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, according to South Korean government records. Many defectors have testified they wanted to avoid the North's harsh political system and poverty.

Defections are a bitter source of contention between the rival Koreas, which are still divided along the world's most heavily fortified border since the end of the Korean War. Pyongyang usually accuses Seoul of enticing North Korean citizens to defect, something Seoul denies.

 

[Housecarl]

Going back again to something that's been said here for years....You can't "fix" Afghanistan without "fixing" Pakistan.....


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/11/middleeast/afghanistan-helmand-taliban-soldiers/index.html

Afghan soldiers desert as Taliban threaten key Helmand capital

By Nick Paton Walsh, CNN
Updated 10:34 AM ET, Mon April 11, 2016

Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) — Sometimes you know a war's going badly when your enemy is right in front of you.

About 3 miles outside the southern city of Lashkar Gah, Afghan soldiers can see a white flag. It's not one of surrender -- quite the opposite.

The flag belongs to the Taliban, and shows exactly how close the militant group is to the capital of Helmand province.

Despite Afghan government assurances that the army can hold and retake ground, the strategic province that hundreds of NATO troops -- who have been in the country for the last 15 years -- died fighting for is closer than ever to falling to the Taliban.

READ: Have we got the response to terrorism wrong?

Taliban resurgent

Those inside Lashkar Gah are understandably nervous.

A Helmand police official, who did not want to be named for his own safety, told CNN on Sunday that the army had not made any recent advances, and at least five full districts in the province were already under full Taliban control.

The official said this included the towns of Musa Qala and Nawzad, and that an army offensive to retake the town of Khanisheen was recently repelled by the Taliban.

Lashkar Gah is currently under threat from two directions by the militant group, the official said.

The official confirmed what many analysts had long feared: that the highly valuable opium crop, now being harvested in Helmand, is a key reason for the Taliban's focus on the southern province.

Even a temporary lull in the fighting in Helmand in the past week can be attributed to the Taliban's focus on getting the poppy harvest in, the official said.

Afghanistan war: Just what was the point?

'It will not fall'

Government representatives strongly reject any suggestion that Helmand is under threat of Taliban control, or that Lashkar Gah would be overrun.

"It will not fall. If it falls, there is no doubt I will resign, but it will not fall," acting Defense Minister Masoom Stanikzai told CNN.

"It is not a rosy picture in Helmand. It's a difficult fight and there are many fighters coming from across the (Pakistan) border, there is no doubt about that."

He blamed the Taliban's recent advances on Pakistani assistance, an oft-repeated charge by Afghan officials.

"Why are we ignoring this fact? Go to Quetta, go to Peshawar. What the hell are those (militant) bases doing there? How are they moving there? How are they communicating there?"

'A bad year'

The Afghan army has struggled in Helmand, where U.S. officials were strongly critical of its former leadership in the province.

"2015 was a bad year, but I attribute most of those (failings) to failures of leadership," Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, the U.S. forces' deputy chief of staff for operations, told CNN.

He said recently appointed Afghan army leaders were "phenomenal" and that "they still have a very tough set of operations ahead of them, but I disagree completely that Lashkar Gah is on the verge of falling."

As Afghanistan moves into summer, and the warmer months known as the fighting season, existing challenges will be made worse by extreme losses government forces endured nationwide in 2015.

U.S. officials estimate that 5,500 Afghan security force members died that year alone, far more than the 3,500 NATO lost in its entire decadelong campaign.

Top U.S. general in Afghanistan: 2016 'possibly worse than 2015'

Deserting to the Taliban

Death is not the only reason the Afghan army is losing troops: Desertion is rife within the ranks.

CNN met two deserters in Helmand whose stories show the breadth of the problem, who have taken their skills -- months of U.S. taxpayer-funded training -- to the Taliban.

"I did 18 months of army training and took an oath to serve this country," one deserter said. "But the situation changed. The army let us down, so we had to come to the Taliban, who treat us like guests."

The two men still had their old uniforms, army IDs, and even the bank cards they used to withdraw their official wages.

"I decided to leave the army when my dead and injured comrades lay in our base, and nobody took them to hospital. My army training is very useful now, as I am training Taliban fighters with the same knowledge."

Record casualties

More than 3,500 Afghan civilians died last year alone, and another 7,500 were injured -- record figures.

The stories of those who have fled to Lashkar Gah provide a snapshot of what Afghans endure daily, often out of the global spotlight.

"My worst memory was how a wedding party was hit by a mortar, killing a large number of women and children," one man said.

"The police left after the fighting intensified and told me to move to a vacant corner of the village. But the bullets and rockets followed, killing 10 people. So I fled here."

Another man came from an area the Taliban now control to buy goods in Lashkar Gah, and described a relative calm in the town of Musa Qala now the Taliban were in control.

"The bazaar is now full of people when it used to be empty. That was because security was bad and some people avoided the government forces in it."

Still, government officials insist they will turn the fight around in Helmand in coming months.

Stanikzai, the acting defense minister, said much of the battle against the insurgency was about reinforcing public perception that the government was winning.

"It is not about the battlefield but the confidence of people in the political future. We have to create it. We have to work on it," he said.

"We have to defend the country."

New recruits attacked

On Monday a suicide bombing attack killed 12 people and injured dozens when a three-wheeled motorcycle loaded with explosives targeted a bus carrying new Afghan army recruits from eastern Afghanistan to Kabul, a spokesman for the Afghan Defense Ministry said.

At least 38 people also were reported wounded in the attack, which happened in Jalalabad, the official said. Jalalabad is the provincial capital of Nangarhar.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realcleardefense.com/art..._or_lose_it_chinas_grand_strategy_109242.html

April 11, 2016

Use It or Lose It: China's Grand Strategy

By Parag Khanna


Editor's Note: The Global Affairs column is written by Stratfor's editorial board, a diverse group of extraordinary thinkers whose expertise inspires rigorous and innovative thought in our analysis. Though their opinions are their own, they inform and sometimes even challenge our beliefs. We welcome that challenge, and we hope our readers do too.

By Parag Khanna

In 2010, Canada hosted the G7 finance ministers in Nunavut, the country's frigid Arctic province that is home to a mere 30,000 Inuit people. Canada's "Northern Strategy" for the Arctic was a centerpiece of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper's tenure, resulting in a larger coast guard, new icebreakers, military logistics centers across the Northwest Territories, regular drone surveillance flights and a fleet of stealth snowmobiles code-named Loki. When asked why Canada was placing such strategic emphasis on the Arctic, Harper responded with a simple phrase: "Use it or lose it."

There is no better expression to capture great power maneuvering in the 21st century, especially when it comes to China. In contrast to the legalistic and nation-based approaches that dominate Western thinking, China views the world almost entirely through the lens of supply chains. As Chinese growth and consumption surged in the 1990s, it became a huge importer of raw materials from countries that the West began to ignore as the Cold War ended. The saying "Power abhors a vacuum" is itself a synonym for "Use it or lose it." China is now the top trade partner of 124 countries, more than twice as many as the United States (52 countries). China sees New Zealand as a food supplier, Australia as an iron ore and natural gas exporter, Zambia as a metals hub and Tanzania as a shipping hub. The Argentine scholar Mariano Turzi calls his country a "soybean republic" in light of the shift in its agribusiness to serve Chinese demand. Supply and demand is the governing law of the 21st century, not sovereignty.

The long-standing mantra of the de jure world is "This land is my land." The new motto of the de facto, supply chain world is "Use it or lose it."

In a supply chain world, it matters less who owns (or claims) territory than whouses (or administers) it. China is harvesting minerals far from its own borders in lands it cannot steadily rule. It thus prefers de facto maps to de jure ones — the world as it can rearrange it, rather than the world as international law sees it.

The South China Sea is where China's "Use it or lose it" strategy is on full display. In its quest to generate a greater share of its raw materials east of strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca, China is deploying novel approaches to establish "facts in the water" while littoral neighbors such as the Philippines seek arbitration from international tribunals. With an estimated 30 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 10 billion barrels of oil lying beneath the South China Sea, China sent a towable oil and natural gas exploration rig, the Haiyang Shiyou 981, to probe in and out of Vietnamese waters near the Paracel Islands multiple times during 2014 and 2015. Wang Yilin, chairman of the state-owned oil China National Offshore Oil Corp., has called these movable deep-water rigs "strategic weapons" that are part of China's "mobile national sovereignty."

China's "Use it or lose it" approach also involves another strategic weapon much cheaper than oil rigs or aircraft carriers: sand. The People's Liberation Army has been installing brick-and-mortar airstrips, lighthouses, garrisons, signals stations and administrative centers on neglected or abandoned islands in the Spratly island chain. Fiery Cross Reef has become the epicenter of what some call an "island factory" where large-scale seabed dredging and land reclamation are used to build up and connect separate shoals into larger islands. It is assuming de facto control while de juresovereignty is arbitrated indefinitely.

The Arctic and Antarctic regions are also key targets of China's strategy. Even as China negotiates patiently to gain observer status and potentially membership in the Arctic Council (which involves everything from attempting major land purchases in Iceland to back-channel diplomacy with Norway over the fallout from awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissidents), it has also dangled multibillion-dollar investments in front of Greenland's 60,000 people to open the country's uranium industry to Chinese mining companies, which colonial power Denmark presently rejects. Within the coming years, though, Greenland could vote for independence — and assume a new role as a Chinese supply chain colony in the process.

What is Global Affairs?

Antarctica, the only continent without a native human population, has also been geopolitically dormant during the past half-century thanks to the de jure logic of the 1961 Antarctic Treaty, which bans any military activity or oil prospecting there. That has not stopped China from sending ice-breaking ships to clear the way for geologic surveying to determine if hundreds of billions of barrels of oil lie beneath the ice and rock. In 2015, China signed a ship refueling agreement with Australia to facilitate these long-distance voyages of commercial colonization.

From Amsterdam to Beijing

Experts who compare China's 21st-century rise to Bismarck's Germany miss a far more appropriate historical analogy: the 17th-century Dutch. While the Spanish and Portuguese crowns were the first truly global empires (and were united for half a century until 1640), they physically subjugated large swaths of Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania through violent conquest and even genocide. The Dutch, by contrast, operated in a less brutal and more commercial fashion. The Dutch East India Company, chartered in 1602, is considered the world's first multinational corporation that issued stocks and bonds to finance expeditions. The Dutch deployed more merchant ships (5,000) and traders (almost one million) over a 200-year period than the rest of Europe combined.

There are remarkable similarities between Amsterdam's strategy 400 years ago and Beijing's today. It is the Dutch model of infrastructure for resources that China follows, not British or French colonialism that sought to administer and socially engineer entire societies. Though the Dutch used force in alliance with local rulers to oust the Portuguese and establish administrative control — particularly in Sri Lanka and Indonesia — the objective was to secure trading posts and harness natural resource wealth, not to conquer the world for God or country. Two hundred years earlier, the great Ming admiral Zheng He's massive 15th-century "Treasure Fleet" voyages had also established China's peaceful relations with kingdoms as far as East Africa. Like Ming China, the Dutch were about trade, not territory: They were an empire of enclaves.

As with its Ming forebearers and the 17th-century Dutch, China today operates the largest merchant marine fleet. Over 2,000 vessels — barges, bulk carriers, petroleum tankers and container ships — sail all the oceans, increasingly including the Arctic. By contrast, there are currently fewer than 100 U.S.-flagged ships on the oceans. China also builds, operates and in many cases owns critical ports and canals that underpin its growing supply chain empire. (The Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa runs both ends of the Panama Canal.) China has built dozens of such special economic zones (SEZs), not only inside its own borders but also across Asia, Latin America and Africa. SEZs are the commercial garrisons of a supply chain world, enabling China to secure resources without the messy politics of colonial subjugation.

https://www.stratfor.com/sites/defa...c/main/images/china-sez (1).png?itok=DETB_D86

Analysts should note that even as China's resource imports and consumption slow, it will still want to secure supply chains to all continents for its exports as well. China's newest SEZs from Somalia to South Africa capitalize on cheaper labor than its own and accelerate access for its textiles and manufactured goods into fast-growing markets. In this way, China is quickly becoming the world's largest cross-border investor as measured by foreign exchange reserves, portfolio capital and foreign direct investment, with its total overseas holdings projected to reach $20 trillion by 2020. China's supply chain grand strategy will therefore persist irrespective of today's economic downturn and market volatility.

Filling the Void of Influence

"Use it or lose it" also helps explain how countries upstream from China fight back against its powerful encroachments. In 2014, Iran canceled a major oil contract with the China National Petroleum Corp., citing delays in exploration and deliveries. That same year, Mexico canceled a China Railway Construction Corp. contract citing a lack of transparency in the bidding. China's electronics powerhouse, ZTE Corp., also had a contract to install closed-circuit TV cameras in Zambia canceled over corruption allegations.

These instances — and many others like them — create opportunities for Western diplomacy and commercial companies to compete again in areas they have either neglected or been insufficiently aggressive in. Indeed, as sanctions are lifted on Iran and eased on Russia, influence will not come from moralistic sermons or easily circumvented attempts at isolation, but from direct engagement to shape the commercial and political environments of important swing states.

In the coming decade, this competition to control supply chains is how we will see geopolitics playing out. Many people view geopolitics as the bending of borders. But in the 21st century we should pay more attention to the bending of supply chains.

This exclusive guest post is adapted from Khanna's forthcoming book, Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization, to be released on April 19 by Random House.


This article originally appeared at Stratfor.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realcleardefense.com/art..._preserve_our_strategic_deterrent_109243.html

April 11, 2016

Act Now to Preserve Our Strategic Deterrent

By Jonathan Ruhe & John Bird

Walking through our nation’s two Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) bases, it is easy to become awestruck and overwhelmed by everything that goes into keeping our nuclear deterrent forces ready around the globe. Unlike our Navy’s surface ships, each submarine (affectionately called a “boat”) rotates two crews: one at sea and the other training for its next patrol. This high operations tempo turns the quays into hives of highly efficient activity during the short periods these boats are at home port for top-to-bottom refitting.

All this energy is devoted to maintaining our country’s most survivable nuclear forces. Unlike intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), which must be launched from known locations in the American heartland, our ballistic missile submarines operate stealthily undersea at closer range to their targets. Each SSBN is capable of launching 24 Trident nuclear missiles – each with multiple warheads – in mere minutes.

As a result, the missiles from these boomers will always get through, giving the United States its assured second-strike capability. Such a robust force is in large part the primary reason for the absence of great-power conflict for more than 70 years – the longest such period in the history of the modern state system.

Fully leveraging our SSBNs’ unequaled strategic deterrence requires having enough platforms to execute this critical mission, especially as they account for fully 70 percent of all U.S. strategic nuclear warheads. Unfortunately, the available number of SSBNs is set to decrease, even as the challenges to global security and proliferation of nuclear-capable actors will increase the demands placed upon them.

Nuclear weapons are increasingly important to our adversaries, many of whom are becoming more emboldened and risk-acceptant as the United States draws down its global force presence and leadership. In its drive to become a superpower, China is projected to more than double the number of warheads on missiles capable of reaching the United States over the next decade. Russia views its nuclear arsenal as the sine qua non for returning to superpower status, and talks openly about first-use of nuclear weapons to “de-escalate” conflicts. North Korea routinely tests new nuclear weapons and longer-range delivery vehicles, and the nuclear agreement with Iran opens its path to nuclear weapons capability over the medium term.

Meanwhile, our Ohio-class SSBN fleet is approaching the end of its service life. Conceived in the 1950s, designed in the 1960s and first procured in the 1970s, most boats are already past or nearing their initial 30-year lifespan. Even with service-life extension to 42 years, the number of serviceable Ohio-class boats will begin declining in a decade. Furthermore, thanks to sequestration, progress on the replacement class is already two years delayed.

To meet the U.S. military’s nuclear deterrent force requirements, it is critical to begin advanced procurement of the Ohio-class replacement starting this year; there is no room left for delay. This will enable construction of the lead ship beginning 2021, and the first strategic patrol in 2030 – coincidentally, the year before all meaningful restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program expire.

This necessitates top-line relief today, in the form of a $5-7 billion increase in shipbuilding funds similar to that provided for Ohio-class procurement in the 1980s. Otherwise the Navy will have to rob Peter to pay Paul, sloughing resources from other programs that will adversely affect overall Navy readiness. This top-line relief represents less than one percent of the Defense Department’s budget, at a time when defense spending as a share of national wealth is low compared to when the Ohio class was procured.

This is a practical long-term investment. The new SSBNs’ mission will remain of critical importance to national security, and will continue to form the most important leg of our nuclear triad into the 2080s. The Navy has already shown itself to be a good steward for procurement under sequestration, as it is currently producing Virginia-class fast attack submarines ahead of schedule and under budget.

The burden of procurement cannot be allowed yet again to fall on the next generation. Our country’s handful of SSBNs, and the two bustling bases they call home, represent a unique capability at the core of our national defenses. We must act now to preserve our best guarantor of peace, not only for that next generation, but also for our own.


VADM (ret.) John Bird is a former career submarine officer in the U.S. Navy and a member of the Board of Advisors to the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). Jonathan Ruhe is Associate Director of JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2016/04/11/giving_iraq_a_fighting_chance_111808.html

April 11, 2016

Giving Iraq a Fighting Chance

By Anthony Cordesman
Comments 3

The war in Iraq sometimes seems distant and abstract. The expansion of ISIS terrorist attacks in Europe, the Syrian refugee issue, and Russian intervention in Syria get the bulk of media and public attention. The slow Iraqi gains in Anbar, and the city-by-city fighting that never quite seems to end is only dealt with in passing. The core of the U.S. military effort against ISIS is, however, centered in Iraq. Defeating ISIS depends on U.S. success in rebuilding the Iraq Army and its ability to drive ISIS out of Iraq.

The United States has only slowly built up the kind of train and assist mission that can give Iraqi ground forces the capabilities they need. The United States did, however, begin major offensive air operations against ISIS on August 8, 2014. It flew 11,398 strike sorties by April 5, 2016, and it allocated 7,683 of those sorties to Iraq, and only 3,715 to Syria. Since that time, it has spent some $6.5 billion on these operations.

The reasons why the United States resumed a combat role in Iraq are all too clear. ISIS is one of the cruelest and most violent political movements in history. It has been a key source of international terrorism and has spread into many other countries. ISIS threatens the world's major center of petroleum exports, and with it the stability of the global economy. It is a threat to every U.S. friend and ally in the region, and every moderate regime and state.

It is also important to remember that the fighting in Syria and Iraq cannot be separated, and the human tragedy in both countries keeps mounting. ISIS forces took Mosul, then Iraq's second largest city, with a population approaching two and one-half million, on June 10, 2014. Since then, ISIS has driven some one million people out of the greater Mosul area and has come close to transforming one of the most populated parts of Iraq into a living hell. In fact, the majority of the people who have suffered from ISIS rule have been in Iraq. The bulk of the Syrian refugee problem, and Syrian civilian casualties, have been inflicted by the Assad regime.

The United States has chosen not to deploy major combat land units-a decision which may well be wise given the problems of deploying U.S. forces into nations with deep ethnic and sectarian tensions, Iranian and Hezbollah influence, and that must ultimately shape their own security and destiny. It is all too clear, however, that Iraq cannot succeed in defeating ISIS-or in creating some form of stability and security-without a major U.S. "train and assist" mission to aid the Iraqi army. It is also clear that there can be no security or stability in Syria until ISIS loses its power base in Iraq.

The Obama Administration recognized the need for an on the ground train and assist to a limited degree when it began to set up training centers in the rear to try to rebuild the Iraqi army. As many senior U.S. officers privately made clear at the time, however, a successful train and assist mission could be limited to secure training facilities in the rear. The Iraqi Army had never taken the lead in combat before U.S. combat forces left Iraq at the end of 2011. It suffered from near fatal levels of political interference and corruption under Iraq's former Prime Minister Maliki, and it shattered in the face of minor ISIS attacks. It is hard to build an army. It is all too easy for self-seeking political leaders to destroy one.

The Administration, however, chose to do far too little and too late in an effort to avoid combat casualties and being seen as putting any "boots on the ground." The end result was that the United States had to slowly and painfully increase the size and role of its train and assist mission to something closer to the levels many military advisors had recommended from the start. It has had to push trainers and advisors forward, provide fire support in some areas, reach out to Kurdish and Arab Sunni forces, and quietly increase its role in directly advising and assisting the forward deployed Iraq forces that lead Iraq's combat effort on the ground.

This process of creeping incrementalism almost certainly delayed Iraqi progress and added to the tragedy in Iraq and Syria, but the Administration slowly seems to be waking up to the reality that some "boots on the ground" are vital-that advisors must be present to help shape Iraqi combat capability and leadership and to make sure that U.S. air support is effective. The current reports that the United States may increase the number of forward firebases in Iraq indicate that the United States may now be ready to act on the scale it should have chosen from the start. The details, however, are unclear, and too little, too late is not going to work when the fighting moves to Mosul and the real core of the ISIS position in Iraq.

Victory will also require further sacrifices by the U.S. military. There have already been minor casualties as U.S. advisors have moved forward, although the levels have so far been minimal. ISIS will lash out wherever it can against the U.S presence as it becomes more and more threatened-the United States will also face risks from other extremists.

The alternative, however, is to steadily broaden the time it will take to defeat ISIS, extend the threat of terrorism in the United States and Europe, extend the threat to our regional allies, and increase the number of refugees and innocent civilians that suffer. What would still be a very limited U.S. presence could make a vital difference in both strategic and human terms.

Reprinted with permission from the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.politico.eu/article/vlad...and-mirrors-russia-occupation-crimea-ukraine/

Opinion

Putin’s war of smoke and mirrors

We are sleepwalking through the end of our era of peace. It is time to wake up.

By Eerik-Niiles Kross | 4/9/16, 6:00 AM CET

In modern 21st-century warfare, non-military approaches — propaganda, and economic, cultural and humanitarian sabotage — will play a greater role than purely military methods, Russian Armed Forces chief Valery Gerasimov argued, a year before the Russian occupation of Crimea.

“In a couple of months, even days, a well-functioning state can be turned into a theater of fierce armed conflict, can be made a victim of invasion from outside, or can drown in a net of chaos, humanitarian disaster and civil war,” he wrote.

The purpose of war today is not the physical destruction of the enemy, but the internal eroding of our readiness, will, and values.

Through the lens of Russia’s aggression in Crimea, the invasion of eastern Ukraine, the destabilization of Moldova, the escalating war in Syria and the refugee crisis, Gerasimov’s doctrine shows Russian activities over the past two years — both overt and covert, across the Middle East and Europe — to be part of a single, unified war against the (partially imagined) “hegemony of the West.”

Gerasimov’s doctrine draws on “reflexive control theory” — a favorite among Soviet military theorists — and asserts that control can be established through reflexive, unconscious responses from a target group. This group is systematically supplied with (dis)information designed to provoke reactions that are predictable and, to Russia, politically and strategically desirable.

Before and during its attack on Ukraine, for example, Russia increased violations of NATO air space. The Kremlin spread stories about Putin’s readiness to use nuclear weapons, organized large-scale military exercises on its western borders, and behaved, in every forum, like a militant, aggressive, and irrational opponent. This was paired with a global information campaign: “There is no war in Ukraine. Russia is only helping to solve a crisis.”

This campaign, with its aggressive show of arms, was designed to make the West reluctant to intervene militarily or give assistance to Ukraine. By denying the reality of war, Russia allowed the West to hope that the Kremlin was looking for a way out. Russia hid its real goals behind the possibility of “finding a diplomatic solution.” And the West responded as predicted — our leaders sacrificed their negotiating position in the hope that this was sincere.

In this context, the West’s subsequent sanctions on Russia are a 21st-century version of the tactical territorial surrenders to Napoleon in the 19th century and Hitler in the 20th. The use of sanctions was a tactical loss in that it acknowledged the annexation of Crimea. These kinds of stop-gap measures degrade Western diplomacy and rob it of legitimacy.

Full-blown war requires a constant adversary. The Ukrainian government and Syrian rebels are not Russia’s constant enemies — the Kremlin’s strategic documents define the country’s main adversaries as the United States, NATO, and the EU. Russia will only negotiate a solution after it achieves its aims in Ukraine and Syria, as well as its other openly-declared strategic goal: to demolish the Western security architecture and rearrange our existing world order according to its own interests.

To be clear: Success in Ukraine and Syria will not be defined by military victory in either country. It will be defined by whether or not America and NATO decide to fight, and whether or not Europe confronts Russia over its values.

The West has come to see the real scope of Russia’s hostile activities in recent months, after Russian air raids in Syria forced new refugees toward Europe. Russia’s best hope of survival, as George Soros recently argued, is to ensure the EU collapses first.

To understand how Russia advances this goal we have to grapple with the tenets of “non-linear war,” in which multiple participants — all changing sides as they go — fight each other in a military environment but where eventual success is independent of direct military activities. The architect of this theory is Putin’s adviser, Vladislav Surkov — the same man Putin tapped to meet U.S. diplomats in Kaliningrad to “find a solution” to the Ukrainian war and sanctions.

If Russia is fighting a non-linear war, then the humanitarian disaster in Syria is not just the regrettable side-effect of Russian military operations. It is part of a larger effort.

In the past month, European officials have said they believe Russia is “weaponizing” refugees to fuel the crisis in Europe. American officials admit that “what Russia’s doing is directly enabling ISIL.” This is because the Islamic State is a perfect tool for creating chaos. If ISIL is contributing to the destruction of the “U.S. project” in Iraq and driving the West out of the Middle East, then ISIL is, for Russia, a permissible combatant in Russia’s war in the region.

For months, Russian state media has trumped up the likelihood of Europe’s imminent collapse in the face of the refugee crisis. Russia’s national army of trolls fill social media with these stories. Right-wing extremists in Europe — whose ties to Putin and his ideologues are well-documented and enough of a concern to have warranted an official study by U.S. intelligence agencies — call for the dissolution of Europe. This is not just “Russian propaganda.” These are measures the Kremlin considers integral to winning small-scale battles in a larger geopolitical war.

Russia wants to destroy our core strength: our confidence in the values that underpin our political systems. European leaders who look to blame Germany for the refugee crisis, who want to build walls on their borders, to negotiate separately with Putin, and end the sanctions in favor of a “new dialogue” — all in the name of their “national interests” — are demolishing Europe’s unity.

There’s a reason Putin’s theorists are science fiction authors. Russian GDP equals that of Italy – it should not be an existential threat to the West. We must shake ourselves free from the Kremlin’s masterful fiction and confront the truth that we are in an asymmetric war. This is a war that we can win, and it matters that we do.

We are sleepwalking through the end of our era of peace. It is time to wake up.

Eerik-Niiles Kross, a member of the Estonian parliament, is the former head of Estonian intelligence and an expert on Russian military history and doctrine.

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[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-10/putin-gets-his-own-army

Russia

Putin Gets His Own Army

April 10, 2016 8:00 AM EST
By Leonid Bershidsky

President Vladimir Putin has overhauled Russia's law-enforcement operations to create a domestic army that ultimately would answer to him personally, not to one of the government ministers. It was the clearest demonstration in years of the Russian leader's concern about preserving his power.

On April 5, Putin submitted a bill to the Russian parliament that carved out a National Guard from the Interior Ministry's Interior Troops. The Interior Ministry is essentially the police force; the 170,000-strong Interior Troops are the crack riot police and counterinsurgency units. During Putin's first two presidential terms, they bore the brunt of the fighting in the formerly secessionist region of Chechnya, and they have dispersed many unsanctioned rallies.

In addition to the Interior Troops, all of the ministry's elite units, nicknamed "cosmonauts" by opposition activists for their round helmets and "Star Wars"-like gear, will also be included in Putin's army, with the potential for further expansion. Immediately, the number of National Guard personnel will exceed 15 percent of the Russian armed forces that are supposed to deal with external threats.

This powerful, well-trained force will operate outside the ministry under the command of Viktor Zolotov, a long-time Putin associate, whom the president appointed head of his personal bodyguard immediately after moving into the Kremlin in 2000. Like many Putin friends in government service, he is far wealthier than his official income could ever allow, and he is far more personally loyal to the president than Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev. Zolotov will report directly to Putin.

As the political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya wrote for the Russian Carnegie Center, regardless of whether the interior minister is a close associate of Putin's, or even one of his judo sparring partners, "at a hypothetically possible moment of high tension, his hand will tremble when orders must be followed. Zolotov enjoys maximum protection from such hesitation. Putin -- and Zolotov as an extension of Putin -- will have no more intermediaries."

In the same way, the National Guard's loyalty is more certain than that of the Defense Ministry, run by the popular -- and, reportedly, increasingly independent -- Sergei Shoigu.

The new National Guard has its own intelligence service and thus investigative powers. It also has been granted authority to issue firearm licenses to private individuals and security firms -- almost 10 million people, from hunters to elite bodyguards. The National Guard also has been granted the right to fire without warning "in special cases" and to not introduce themselves when making an arrest.

The Interior Ministry will be severely weakened by the reform. Whenever it needs muscle, it will have to ask Zolotov. As a consolation prize, Kolokoltsev, not a member of Putin's inner circle, gets the 27,000 employees of the Federal Service for the Control of Narcotics and most of the former Federal Migration Service, which issues passports. The ministry is handed all the routine police work, and it loses its status as the Kremlin's most powerful protector.

Putin last reshuffled the "power ministries" in 2003, mostly to bring them closer in line with the Soviet institutions of his youth. The new moves appear to be more significant, both because Russia's ruler is personally taking control of an army and because of the timing. Parliamentary elections will be held in September -- though it won't be a significant event because the resulting legislature will likely rubber-stamp Kremlin decisions just as the current one has, but if the vote is as blatantly rigged as it was in 2011, protests could break out again. Although pollsters still report high levels of support for Putin after the military actions in Ukraine and Syria, Russians also are under stress because of a continuing economic slump. According to the Russian Central Bank, the country's economic output shrank about 1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, compared with a year earlier.

Putin, who appears to believe that the U.S. and its Western allies are out not just to destabilize his regime but to bring about Russia's break-up, is taking no chances. He clearly is timing the reorganization to be completed well ahead of the election. By the time of the presidential election in 2018, the National Guard will have ironed out its kinks. It will have all the powers and functions necessary to counteract a putative Western plot and do away with any overly loud or violent dissent.

Once again, instead of opening up and liberalizing, the embattled Putin regime is closing in on itself, and the man sitting on top of it is taking on more and more direct powers. The National Guard is a manifestation of Putin's mistrust of Russia's remaining institutions: He feels more confident surrounded by old friends and in control of a large fighting force.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net

Quicktake Vladimir Putin

 

[vestige]

Sound familiar?

We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set.

We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded.

Barack Obama

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/b/barackobam409184.html

 

[Housecarl]

Sound familiar?

We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set.

We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded.

Barack Obama

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/b/barackobam409184.html

Yup.

 

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

For links see article source.....
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-israel-idUSKCN0X81TO

World | Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:18am EDT
Related: World, Syria, Israel, Lebanon

Netanyahu: Israel has carried out dozens of strikes in Syria

Israel has launched dozens of strikes in Syria, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday, acknowledging for the first time such attacks against suspected arms transfers to Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas.

Though formally neutral on Syria's civil war, Israel has frequently pledged to prevent shipments of advanced weaponry to the Iranian-backed group, while stopping short of confirming reports of specific air operations.

Visiting Israeli troops in the occupied Golan Heights near the frontier with Syria, Netanyahu said: "We act when we need to act, including here across the border, with dozens of strikes meant to prevent Hezbollah from obtaining game-changing weaponry."

Netanyahu did not specify what kind of strikes Israel had conducted in Syria. He also gave no timeframe or other details regarding the strikes.

Israel welcomed the cessation of hostilities in Syria in February but has indicated it could still launch attacks there if it sees a threat from Hezbollah, which holds sway over southern Lebanon and whose fighters have been allied with President Bashar al-Assad.

Israeli leaders have sought assurances from Russia, which sent forces to Syria last year to help Assad, that it would not allow Iran and Hezbollah to be bolstered by the partial military withdrawal that Moscow announced last month.

Israel and Russia have maintained a hotline to prevent any accidental clash between their aircraft over Syrian territory.

Hezbollah and Israel last fought a war in 2006 that included rocket strikes inside Israel and an Israeli air and ground offensive in Lebanon.

Israeli leaders have said that since that conflict, Hezbollah has built up and improved the range of a rocket arsenal that can now strike deep inside Israel.


(Reporting by Jeffrey Heller; Editing by Gareth Jones)

 

[Housecarl]

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World | Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:10pm EDT
Related: World, Afghanistan

U.S. embassy warns of possible attack on hotel in Kabul

The U.S. embassy in Afghanistan issued an emergency warning to U.S. citizens on Monday, saying it had received reports that insurgents are planning attacks targeting the Star Hotel in Kabul.

"In response to this potential threat, the U.S. Embassy Kabul is advising American citizens to avoid the Star Hotel and to remain vigilant when visiting hotels in Kabul, especially during large gatherings," the embassy said on Twitter.

The warnings follow at least two rockets attacks in the diplomatic zone of Kabul on Saturday just hours after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held meetings with Afghan government leaders in the capital.

The Taliban has stepped up its insurgency since most foreign troops withdrew from Afghanistan at the end of 2014, although Kabul has enjoyed a period of relative calm during the harsh winter months.


(Reporting by Lesley Wroughton; Editing by Paul Simao)

 

[Housecarl]

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World | Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:41pm EDT
Related: World, Syria

Syrian army sends reinforcements to Aleppo

BEIRUT/AMMAN | By Angus McDowall and Suleiman Al-Khalidi

The Syrian army was on Monday reported to be sending reinforcements to Aleppo, where renewed fighting is threatening a fragile truce in the run-up to the next round of peace talks.

Underlining the conflict's regional dimensions, Iranian media announced the first deaths of members of its regular army in Syria, a week after Tehran said army commandos had been deployed in support of Damascus. Iran's military support has so far mostly been provided by the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps.

An eruption of fighting near the ancient city of Aleppo in the last two weeks marks the most serious challenge yet to a "cessation of hostilities" brokered by the United States and Russia with the aim of facilitating peace talks.

Pointing to the frayed state of the truce, Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem told U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura, who is visiting Damascus, that Turkey and Saudi Arabia were behind violations of the deal.

He said they had ordered insurgents to stage attacks aimed at foiling planned Geneva talks. There was no immediate response from Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The two nations have backed the rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad, providing insurgents with arms and money. Assad is supported militarily by both Iran and Russia.

The U.N.-sponsored talks, which resume on Wednesday, aim to end a five-year-old conflict which has killed more than 250,000 people, created the world's worst refugee crisis and allowed for the rise of Islamic State. The first round made little progress, with no sign of compromise over the key issue of Assad's future.

Underlining Assad's confidence, the Syrian government is due to hold parliamentary elections in state-held parts of the country on Wednesday. The opposition has called the vote a sham.


FIGHTING FOR ALEPPO

Related Coverage
› Russia says there are no plans to storm Syria's Aleppo

The fighting near Aleppo has focused around a cluster of towns along the main road to the south.

Rebels say the army has also intensified bombing, and Russian warplanes have resumed air strikes in the area.

The army has accused rebels of taking part in attacks by the Nusra Front, an al Qaeda-linked group, which along with Islamic State was not included in the truce agreement.

Russia said on Monday that Nusra was massing around Aleppo ahead of a major offensive.

Syria's Prime Minister Wael al-Halaki was quoted on Sunday as saying the government, backed by Russia's air force, was planning an operation to retake Aleppo, but the Russian defense ministry said there were no plans to storm the city.

Local media on both sides reported a large build-up of troops and equipment by the Syrian army and its allies around Aleppo, with the pro-Damascus al-Mayadeen TV reporting it had seen tanks and rocket launchers heading towards the city.

The government and its allies have mounted major operations against insurgents to the north and south of Aleppo in the six months since Russia began air strikes in support of Assad and cut the most direct supply route to Turkey earlier this year.

But rebels still hold territory in and around the city, including its western approaches.

The two fiercest fronts in fighting around Aleppo in recent days have been in the towns of Telat al-Eis, Zitan, Zirba and Khan Touman on the main highway south to Damascus, and around the Handarat camp on a main road running north to Turkey.

The Aleppo front is one of the areas where Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Lebanon's Hezbollah have deployed in support of the army.

The Iranian Tasnim news agency said four soldiers in Iran's regular army had been killed in Syria, without saying when or where. "Four of the first military advisers of the Islamic Republic's army ... were killed in Syria by takfiri groups," it said, referring to hardline Sunni Islamists.

TRYING TO PROTECT CEASEFIRE

Both Damascus and the opposition's High Negotiations Committee have held the other to blame for breaches in the truce, which came into effect on Feb. 27.

De Mistura was in Damascus for meetings with senior government officials before traveling on to Iran in an attempt to revive the peace talks after negotiations in March failed to make much progress.

The next round will focus on a political transition, de Mistura said. Moualem said the government would be ready to take part.

Meanwhile, fighting also erupted between rebels and Islamic State on Monday, as the group reclaimed the town of al-Rai near the border with Turkey, about 50km (30 miles) from Aleppo, only days after it fell to the Turkish-backed rebels.


(Additional reporting by Tom Miles in Geneva; Editing by Tom Perry, Peter Millership and Giles Elgood)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
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18 Filipino soldiers killed in daylong clash with militants

By Jim Gomez | AP April 9 at 12:08 PM

MANILA, Philippines — At least 18 soldiers were killed in fierce daylong fighting with Abu Sayyaf extremists in the southern Philippines on Saturday in the largest single-day government combat loss this year, officials said.

At least 52 other soldiers were wounded in the clashes with the Abu Sayyaf and its allied gunmen in the hinterlands bordering Tipo Tipo and Al-Barka towns on Basilan island, three military officials told The Associated Press. Four militants were killed in the clashes, they said.

The three senior military officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to publicly discuss details of the clashes. The large combat casualties were reported as the country marked the Day of Valor to remember Filipino veterans who perished in World War II.

Government forces were deployed to kill or capture Abu Sayyaf commander Isnilon Hapilon, who has publicly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group and has been hunted for years for his alleged involvement in several terrorist attacks, the officials said.

The militants, however, apparently managed to reinforce their ranks quickly and managed to muster between 100 and 150 fighters, allowing them to inflict large casualties on troops, the officials said.

It’s the largest single-day government combat loss this year in the south, where the military has been battling Muslim separatist rebels and extremists, and Marxist guerrillas.

The Abu Sayyaf was founded in 1991 in Basilan, about 880 kilometers (550 miles) south of Manila. With an unwieldy collective of preachers and outlaws, it vowed to wage jihad, or holy war, but lost its key leaders early in combat, sending it on a violent path of extremism and criminality.

The United States and the Philippines have separately blacklisted the Abu Sayyaf as a terrorist organization for deadly bombings, extortion, kidnappings for ransom, and beheadings of locals and foreigners, including Christian missionaries in the south. More than a decade of U.S.-backed Philippine offensives have weakened the Abu Sayyaf, but it remains a key security threat.

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World | Mon Apr 11, 2016 10:09am EDT
Related: World

Philippines army on defensive after bloody clash with militants

MANILA | By Manuel Mogato

The Philippines army defended its operations on Monday after 18 soldiers were killed and more than 50 wounded in a jungle ambush by militants in the south of the country who have pledged allegiance to Islamic State.

Security experts and some media criticized the handling of Saturday's encounter with the Abu Sayyaf rebels, which had echoes of a grisly 2011 clash when 19 troops died - some beheaded - and another last year when 44 police commandos were slain.

"It's deja vu. The government forces underestimated the rebels' firepower capability and ties with other lawless groups on Basilan," said security analyst Rommel Banlaoi, referring to the southern island where the clash raged for 10 hours.

Military spokesman Brigadier-General Restituto Padilla said the troops had been adequately trained and the operation had been well coordinated, but they had been lured into a trap of improvised landmines that could not have been anticipated.

"The situation on the ground is much different from how these armchair generals and analysts saw it. They tend to magnify this unfortunate incident when the army has had many successes."

Padilla said eight Abu Sayyaf rebel bodies were found on Sunday, bringing to 13 the number of dead on the rebels side, including a Moroccan national.

Describing the incident, he said the military had pounded the Abu Sayyaf camp on the island with bombs and artillery shells before sending in ground troops.

"When they got in there, there were explosions around them, the place was booby-trapped and they were pinned down and the rebels were firing at them at all sides," he said.

Padilla said that, as well as the army, the government had a role to play in stamping out militancy in the south of the country through development and providing social services.

The small but violent Abu Sayyaf group, which is known for extortion, kidnappings, beheadings and bombings, is one of several brutal Muslim rebel factions in the impoverished south of the largely Christian Philippines.

The group has posted videos on social media sites pledging allegiance to Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, which have attracted foreign fighters from Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa to the troubled southern Philippines.

The army stepped up its offensive against Abu Sayyaf late last year, when President Benigno Aquino ordered troops to hunt down the rebels over the kidnapping and execution of foreign nationals.

The Philippines military has had years of U.S. counter-terrrorism training, although American troops have no direct role in the offensive against Abu Sayyaf.

"It's not simply a matter of training," said Ric Jacobson, a U.S. security expert. "If the leadership and preparations are not solid, then these operations are destined for failure, no matter how well-trained the troops."

The incident has not prompted criticism from candidates vying for the Philippines' presidency in next month's election. But a tough talking mayor from a southern city, who has vowed to end corruption and crime, has topped the latest opinion poll and is the front-runner for the May 9 election.

The opinion poll was conducted March 30-April 2, before the fighting on Basilan.

Vice-presidential candidates agreed in a debate on Sunday that there could be no negotiations with Abu Sayyaf and that, while they favor a military solution, poverty and social issues in the south of the country needed to be addressed.


(Reporting By Manuel Mogato; Editing by John Chalmers and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

 

[Possible Impact]

Sound familiar?

We cannot continue to rely only on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives that we've set.

We've got to have a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded.

Barack Obama

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/b/barackobam409184.html

Someone stole the idea...


Sputnik ‏@SputnikInt 1h
Russia's National Guard could take part in peacekeeping operations abroad
http://sptnkne.ws/baNK #military

What's Behind the Creation of Russia's New National Guard

15:41 04.06.2016 (updated 16:03 04.06.2016)
http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160406/1037574204/russian-national-guard-explained.html


In a sweeping reorganization of Russia's internal security apparatus,
President Vladimir Putin has announced the creation of the National Guard
– a powerful new paramilitary unit charged with combating terrorism
and organized crime and maintaining social order. Why did the president
decide to create the new unit now? Sputnik investigates.

On Tuesday, in a meeting with the heads of Russia's major internal
defense and law enforcement agencies, President Putin announced the
creation of a new federal executive body – the National Guard, which
will be charged with fighting terrorism and organized crime, and with
helping to maintain peace and order inside the country.

Formed out of the Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs,
the National Guard, according to the president, will continue to work
"in close cooperation" with the ministry.

© Sputnik/ Aleksey Nikolskyi
Putin Announces Creation of National Guard to Fight Terror, Organized Crime


For reference, the Ministry of Internal Affairs includes Russia's police and
traffic police; the Internal Troops, meanwhile, constitute a
gendarmerie-like
paramilitary force. The new National Guard's tasks, the president noted,
will include those previously assigned to OMON and SOBR, tactical
special rapid response forces whose functions include the maintenance
of public order, assisting police (in a manner similar to SWAT in America),
and maintaining order in the event of a state of emergency.

At the same time, the decree published on the president's website
explains, the National Guard will also be charged with assuring territorial
defense, preventing and dealing with internal armed conflicts, and
guarding important facilities, such as nuclear power plants, and cargoes,
as well as the protection of other property.

The federal body, according to the decree, will also work with the
Federal Security Service (Russia's main intelligence agency) in the
protection of state borders.

The reorganization, Russian analysts have noted, is significant precisely
due to the new body's potential size and strength; the Internal Troops
currently number about 200,000 men, and in addition to their other
functions, they play an important role in maintaining law and order
in the North Caucasus.

The troops are fully motorized, have access to armored vehicles (though
in smaller quantities than the army), and have their own aviation,
engineering, marine and other formations as well.

In addition to the Internal Troops, the National Guard will ostensibly
include territorial SWAT and riot police, as well as federal security guard
services, totaling 230,000 people; all told, therefore, the new federal
service will have up to 430,000 people under its command.

© REUTERS/ Maxim Shemetov
Russian National Guard to Ensure Order, Security at Public Events, Rallies


The decree on the National Guard is part of a major reorganization of
the security forces. In addition to the formation of the new service, Putin
announced that Russia's Federal Migration Service and the Federal Drug
Control Service would be merged into the Ministry of Internal Affairs,
which already has ample experience in dealing with both drug crime and
issues related to migration.

The National Guard, it was announced, will be headed by Viktor Zolotov,
formerly the commander of the Internal Troops, and the former head of
the president's personal security. His new rank will be equal to that
of a federal minister, and he will report directly to the president.

A veteran officer in Russia's security services, Zolotov served as Putin's
personal bodyguard starting in 1999. Before that, he served as
bodyguard to President Boris Yeltsin, and to St. Petersburg Mayor
Anatoli Sobchak, which is where he met Putin.

Between 2000 and 2013, Zolotov was the head of the president's
personal security service, serving as the deputy director of the Federal
Protective Service, the agency charged with the protection of
high-ranking state officials, including the president.

© Sputnik/ Vladimir Fedorenko
Putin Submits Draft Law on National Guard to Russian Parliament


The rules and legal basis of the National Guard's operations,
according to the presidential press service, will be laid out
in detail in a future federal law.

Following the decree on its creation Tuesday, the president submitted
draft legislation to the lower house of parliament, the State Duma for
deliberation and approval. Commenting on the reasons for the
reorganization and the National Guard's ultimate purpose, Russian
analysts are divided in their assessments.

For their part, liberal commentators at Gazeta.ru suggested that the new
service will provide the president with extensive leverage over the
country's security forces. At the same time, the paper speculated,
the reorganization is meant to accommodate Zolotov, who had had bouts
of bureaucratic infighting with Internal Affairs Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev
in the past.

For its part, Moscow-based online newspaper Lenta.ru offered another
perspective, suggesting that the formation of the new force may be
connected with the Russia's military doctrine of 2014, which saw the
introduction of a number of new threats to national security, associated
with internal and external factors aimed at the country's destabilization.

"It's obvious that given a major restructuring of the range of threats,
new specific steps [were] needed to create a system capable of
compensating for these threats," the online paper noted, adding that
until now, apart from counterterrorism tools, which are highly effective,
but limited in terms of applicability, the state "simply did not have the
tools" necessary to counter the perceived new dangers.

© Sputnik/ Igor Zarembo
Russia’s Military Doctrine: Facts And Details


The president's "announcement on the creation of a separate 'internal
army'," Lenta.ru suggested, indicates the seriousness with which the
Kremlin has approached the problem.

"The terrorist threat is discussed directly and can be interpreted very
widely, for example, in the spirit of the now popular concept of 'hybrid
warfare', in which the main role is played by mobile paramilitary forces
systematically destabilizing a large state from within." Ultimately,
the paper suggests, in its pursuit of combating destabilization and civil
disturbances, as well as resolving problems of social unrest following
natural or man-made disasters, "the National Guard is not unlike its
American counterpart, which works in disaster areas, and in areas of
major civil unrest."

Finally, Lenta.ru notes, "questions remain about the functions of the
newly created security service – in particular, its possible acquisition
of the powers of investigation, motivated by its tasks of fighting
terrorism and extremism. [If this were to occur,] Russia, factually,
will receive not only a new security agency, but also a new, full-fledged
intelligence agency."

​

 

[Housecarl]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-crime-blast-idUSKCN0X80RD

World | Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:43pm EDT
Related: World, Russia

Three men blow themselves up outside police station in southern Russia


Three men blew themselves up outside a rural police station in southern Russia on Monday after trying to gain entry to the building as part of an unsuccessful attack, Russian investigators said in a statement.

The attack took place in Novoselitskoe, a village in Russia's Stavropol region close to the volatile North Caucasus area, where Islamist militants intent on carving out a breakaway caliphate have targeted policemen in a series of car bombings and shootings.

"As a result of the blasts the police station and some cars nearby suffered some damage," Russia's Investigative Committee said in a statement. "No local people or police were hurt."

Investigators said they had identified the suicide bombers, men from another village in the area with previous convictions, including for murder. Their names suggested they were originally from the majority-Muslim North Caucasus region.

Investigators did not suggest a motive but said they had opened a criminal case for an attempt on the life of police officers.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was too soon to say whether the incident was a terrorist or a criminal act.

Local kindergartens and schools were evacuated as a precaution, news agencies reported, and police were put on a higher state of military-style readiness, said an interior ministry spokesman in the Stavropol region.

An eyewitness video on the lifenews.ru news site showed the blackened entrance to the police station and debris in front of it as a continuous alarm sounded.

The man filming the video, who was not named, said locals had heard five explosions and the sound of automatic gun fire.


(Reporting by Lidia Kelly/Denis Pinchuk/Maria Tsvetkova; Writing by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)