WAR 03-18-2017-to-03-24-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

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(259) 2-25-2017-to-03-03-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...03-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(260) 03-04-2017-to-03-10-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...10-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(261) 03-11-2017-to-03-17-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...17-2017_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

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http://www.tulsaworld.com/opinion/p...cle_a621173f-c079-53c6-a815-3a1b5257a3ae.html

Patrick J. Buchanan: Is Turkey lost to the West?

Posted: Saturday, March 18, 2017 12:00 am
By Patrick J. Buchanan | 0 comments

Not long ago, a democratizing Turkey, with the second-largest army in NATO, appeared on track to join the European Union. That’s not likely now, or perhaps ever.

Last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan compared Angela Merkel’s Germany to Hitler’s, said the Netherlands was full of “Nazi remnants’’ and “fascists,’’ and suggested the Dutch ambassador go home.

What precipitated Erdogan’s outbursts?

City officials in Germany refused to let him campaign in Turkish immigrant communities on behalf of an April 16 referendum proposal to augment his powers.

When the Netherlands denied Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu landing rights, he exploded, saying: “The Netherlands ... are reminiscent of the Europe of World War II. The same racism, Islamophobia, xenophobia, anti-Semitism.’’

When Turkey’s family and social policies minister, Betul Sayan Kaya, drove from Germany to Rotterdam to campaign, Dutch police blocked her from entering the Turkish consulate and escorted her back to Germany.

Liberal Europeans see Erdogan’s referendum as a power grab by an unpredictable and volatile ruler who has fired 100,000 civil servants and jailed 40,000 Turks after last summer’s attempted coup, and is converting his country into a dictatorship.

This crisis was tailor-made for Geert Wilders, the anti-EU, anti-Muslim Dutch nationalist who lost in Wednesday’s Dutch general election.

Claiming credit for the tough stance of conservative Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Wilders tweeted: “I am telling all Turks in the Netherlands that agree with Erdogan: GO to Turkey and NEVER come back!’’

“Wilders is a racist, fascist Nazi,’’ replied Cavusoglu.

Rutte, who dominated the media through the weekend confrontation with the Turks, could be the beneficiary, as a resurgent nationalism pulls all parties toward the right.

All Europe now seems to be piling on the Turks. Danes, Swedes and Swiss are taking Europe’s side against Erdogan.

Marine Le Pen, leader of the populist National Front in France, called on the socialist regime to deny Turkish leaders permission to campaign in Turkish communities. She was echoed by conservative party candidate Francois Fillon, whose once-bright hopes for the presidency all but collapsed after it was learned his wife and children had held do-nothing jobs on the government payroll.

On April 23 comes the first round of the French elections. And one outcome appears predictable. Neither of the major parties — the socialists of President Francois Hollande or the Republicans of ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy — may make it into the May 7 finals.

Le Pen, the anti-EU populist who would lift sanctions on Putin’s Russia, is running even with 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron, a socialist running as the independent leader of a new movement.

Should Le Pen run first in April, the shock to Europe would be far greater than when her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, made the finals in 2002.

Fueling the campaign is the gnawing ethnonational fear across Europe that the migration from the South — Maghreb, the Middle East and the sub-Sahara — is unstoppable and will eventually swamp the countries, cultures and civilization of Europe and the West.

The ugly and brutal diplomatic confrontation with Turkey may make things worse, as the Turks, after generous payments from Germany, have kept Syrian civil war refugees from crossing its borders into Europe. Should Ankara open the gates, a new immigration crisis could engulf Europe this spring and summer.

Other ethnonational crises are brewing in a familiar place, the Balkans, among the successor states born of the 1990s breakup of Yugoslavia.

In Bosnia, secessionists seek to pull the Serb Republic away from Sarajevo toward Belgrade. The Albanian minority in Macedonia is denouncing political discrimination. The Serbs left behind after Kosovo broke loose in 1999, thanks to 78 days of U.S. bombing of Serbia, have never been reconciled to their fate.

Montenegro has charged Russia with backing an attempted coup late last year to prevent the tiny nation from joining NATO.

The Financial Times sees Vladimir Putin’s hand in what is going on in the Western Balkans, where World War I was ignited with the June 1914 assassination of the Austrian archduke in Sarajevo.

The upshot of all this:
Turkey, a powerful and reliable ally of the U.S. through the Cold War, appears to be coming unmoored from Europe and the West, and is becoming increasingly sectarian, autocratic and nationalistic.

While anti-immigrant and anti-EU parties across Europe may not take power anywhere in 2017, theirs is now a permanent and growing presence, leeching away support from centrist parties left and right.

With Russia’s deepening ties to populist and nationalist parties across Europe, from Paris to Istanbul, Vlad is back in the game.


Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of the new book ‘’The Greatest Comeback: How Richard Nixon Rose From Defeat to Create the New Majority.’’ To find out more about Patrick Buchanan and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators website at www.creators.com.
 

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https://www.nigeriatoday.ng/2017/03...on-mali-others-boko-haram-leader-shekau-vows/

We Will Take Over Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Others… – Boko Haram Leader, Shekau Vows

Posted on Mar 17, 2017 in Politics | 0 comments]

Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau, has appeared in a new video released on Friday urging his fighters to persist in their insurgency against democratic governments until the sect takes over most countries in Africa and enthrone Sharia particularly in Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Mali.

In the video, he displayed identity cards, arms, ammunition and other equipment purportedly seized from the Cameroonian Army.

Shekau, who maintained that his men will not back down, also refuted recent attacks in Libya and threatened some world leaders.

The 27-minute footage, sent to media houses in Abuja by a journalist with known contact to Boko Haram, has Shekau thanking his loyal followers.

Three days ago, the sect released a video claiming to have killed some three men allegedly working for government as spies..

Video to come soon…

The post We Will Take Over Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Others… – Boko Haram Leader, Shekau Vows appeared first on Ngyab .

This post was syndicated from Ngyab . Click here to read the full text on the original website.
 

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http://www.wqow.com/story/34944075/french-police-man-tried-to-seize-weapon-at-airport-killed

French police: man tried to seize weapon at airport, killed

Posted: Mar 18, 2017 1:44 AM PDT
Updated: Mar 18, 2017 2:14 AM PDT
By ANGELA CHARLTON
Associated Press

PARIS (AP) - A man was shot to death Saturday after trying to seize the weapon of a soldier guarding Paris' Orly Airport, prompting a partial evacuation of the terminal, police said.

Authorities warned visitors to avoid the area while an ongoing police operation was underway. Emergency vehicles surrounded the airport as confused passengers gathered in parking lots, and the elite RAID special police force worked to secure the airport.

A national police official said it is unclear whether the attacker acted alone. No information about the slain man or any other injuries was available, she said. The official was not authorized to be publicly named.

The soldier who was attacked is part of the Sentinel special force installed around France to protect sensitive sites after a string of deadly Islamic extremist attacks. The force includes 7,500 soldiers, half deployed in the Paris region and half in the provinces.

Orly is Paris' second-biggest airport behind Charles de Gaulle, serving domestic and international flights, notably to destinations in Europe and Africa.

The shooting came after a similar incident last month at the Louvre Museum in which an Egyptian man attacked soldiers guarding the site and was shot and wounded.

Saturday's attack further rattled France, which remains under a state of emergency after attacks over the past two years that have killed 235 people.
 

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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/0...-mass-grave-expose-official-indifference.html

Mexican parents find drug-war mass grave, expose official indifference

Published March 17, 2017
Reuters

VERACRUZ, MEXICO – The discovery of one of the largest mass graves by a group of grieving parents has exposed the government's failure to investigate the missing victims in Mexico's long and bloody drug war.

After a six months-plus investigation led by the families, government investigators in the Gulf state of Veracruz said on Tuesday they had found more than 250 skulls in a shallow graves in a field, a record in the atrocities in Mexico.

On Thursday, reporters gained access for the first time to the lush tropical area spotted with lagoons near a current major expansion of Veracruz city's busy seaport.

MEXICO: 5 DEAD BODIES DUMPED ALONG HIGHWAY IN VERACRUZ STATE

The site was uncovered last year after a tip to members of Colectivo Solecito, one of several groups of frustrated relatives searching for the tens of thousands of people who have gone missing during the gang drug wars and whose cases are unsolved.

"The authorities don't care about searching. Here, those who search are the parents," said Rosalia Castro, who has been looking for her son since 2011. "The attention of the prosecutor's office has been zero."

The groups' success in uncovering evidence of atrocities highlights the dismal human rights record of Pena Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

It is also a reminder that while U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial immigration policies and planned border wall has provided a distraction from Mexico's woes, crime and corruption continue to dog the party that hopes to stay in power in presidential elections next year.

TRUMP PRESIDENCY SHIFTING POLITICAL FORCES IN MEXICO — TOWARD THE LEFT

At the site on Thursday, Jorge Winckler, Veracruz state's attorney general, warned that teams were likely to find more remains, possibly in the area of the port expansion. But he said authorities would be unable to conduct the massive forensic investigation without additional resources.

Behind him, small groups of family members and police poked into the ground with poles, feeling for human remains beneath the soil as they slowly worked their way across two-meter by two-meter plots.

Veracruz state saw a staggering rise in violent crime under former governor Javier Duarte due to widening turf wars between gangs engaged in drug trafficking, kidnapping and the daylight theft of oil from pipelines.

Last October, Duarte, a member of the PRI, fled after he was charged with embezzlement and has eluded capture. Under his successor, who beat the PRI's candidate last year, crime has raged unabated.

Veracruz state says up to 2,600 people have disappeared under suspicious circumstances since 2010, at the start of Duarte's term. The Mexican government estimates some 27,000 people went missing nationwide since drug-related violence surged a decade ago.

Relatives of the missing in Veracruz say state authorities were apathetic when they sought help in learning the fate of their loved ones.

Residents near the grave site, just outside a lower middle-class housing development called Colinas de Santa Fe, said that as far back as four years ago they noticed pickups coming and going at strange hours and sometimes heard gunshots.

"I know there will be no justice, only divine justice. From that, you cannot escape," said Griselda Barradas, whose son Pedro Huesca Barradas is one of only two sets of remains identified among the 250 found at the 49-acre site.

Barradas, whose son was himself a police investigator who went missing four years ago, said that during a protest march on Mother's Day last May two young men were handing out pamphlets to the crowd.

"I didn't make much of it until the next day when I took a good look and realized it was a sketch, a very detailed map of how to get to the place and that there was a lagoon with many bodies," she said.

The group convinced authorities to let them search the area last August along with state forensic investigators.

Grieving relatives had been unsuccessful for years in getting local authorities to investigate the killings but the 2014 disappearance of 43 student teachers in Guerrero state marked a turning point after impromptu search parties uncovered unrelated burial sites across the country.

Guadalupe Contreras' son disappeared in 2013 in Guerrero, which has seen a spike in violence and heroin production, and the father joined search parties there last year. Now he is helping in Veracruz.

"Before it was much more difficult. We were ignorant of what happened and how to search. But we taught ourselves and now we are also teaching others," Contreras said.
 

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https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...-weighs-on-minds-of-us-forces-in-mosul-battle

Need to Avoid Civilian Deaths Weighs on Minds of U.S. Forces in Mosul Battle

March 18, 2017, at 4:54 a.m.

By Angus MacSwan

QAYYARA WEST AIRFIELD, Iraq (Reuters) - As the battle for Mosul moves to the narrow streets and densely packed houses of the Old City, U.S. artillery gunners and helicopter pilots supporting Iraqi forces face an age-old problem – how to avoid killing civilians.

They place their faith in precision missiles which can hit their target with great accuracy. But human instinct also comes into play against an Islamic State enemy which has used civilians as human shields and hides in houses and mosques.

"Our mission is to find and destroy ISIS. We are not here to kill the wrong people," said Captain Lucas Gebhart, commander of the 4/6th Cavalry's Bravo Troop of Apache attack helicopters.

The troop is based at this airfield about 60 kms south of Mosul, as is a rocket battery which fires into west Mosul.

A major site at the height of the U.S. occupation, Islamic State captured Qayyara from Iraqi government forces in 2014 and destroyed it. The Iraqis retook it in July last year, and now the U.S. Army is building it up again as a support base for the Mosul operation.

Gebhart, who wore a U.S. Cavalry hat with a crossed-sabre insignia along with his regular uniform, has been here since December. The troop flies close support for the Iraqi army and escorts medical evacuations. It has had more than 200 engagements with Islamic State fighters in that time, he said.

"We fly every day, weather permitting. We are firing missiles most of the time," Gebhart told reporters.

The Iraqi army started its offensive on Mosul, Islamic State's last stronghold in Iraq, in October and retook the east side of the city, bisected by the Tigris river, in January. The west, including the Old City, is much harder going.

"The west side is very congested and it will present new challenges for us. We realize the need to be careful as we go forward," Gebhart said.

One of those challenges is avoiding civilian casualties in a conflict where fighters are mixed in among the population and sometimes hiding behind them.

"Everyone that flies with me are fathers and husbands, so we are very deliberate to avoid casualties we don't want. We use guided missiles. The things we shoot from an Apache, they go where we want them to go," Gebhart said.

Targets are identified and approved by the Iraqi army. But circumstances can change in a moment.

"I have personal experience of human shields. I engaged a target and they pulled a family of women and children out of a house. The missile was already in the air but I was able to move it," he said.

"You've got a little bit of time. If something happens post-missile release, we have procedures to move it."

Gebhart, aged 32, joined the military as a teenager after the 9/11 attacks on the United States. He served in the 82nd Airborne in Iraq in 2003 before going to West Point and becoming a cavalry officer. He also served two tours of duty in Afghanistan.

"I love my job. I don't lose sleep over it," he said.

WE LOVE TO FIRE

In another section of the base, the 18th Field Artillery "Odin" battery operates a High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), fired off the back of trucks.

On Friday afternoon, the battery fired 10 rockets, each worth about $100,000, in the space of about 20 minutes. They headed skywards in a cloud of white smoke and a flash of fire as a Bob Marley song played from a platoon tent. They would reach their target in east Mosul in about a minute.

Lieutenant Mary Floyd explained that the rockets were GPS-guided. All fire missions were approved by senior officers at the Combined Joint Operations Center and the coordinates were sent to the battery through computers.

"The rockets go really high so we have to clear airspace -– civilian and military -– along the flight path. We have had to end missions because they saw aviation," she said.

Although rockets are often aimed at targets in built-up, populated areas, the battery was confident they would hit what they intended. If the rockets are off target, they do not detonate, she said.

"They have very, very low collateral damage, so we like to use them a lot," Floyd said, using the military term for civilian casualties. "When the rockets hit they land at near a vertical angle. That really confines the blast to one house."

The battery has fired hundreds of rockets since deploying to Qayyara, she said.

"The tempo changes. We'll go a couple of days without orders. Then we might be firing all night."

The issue of civilian casualties has dogged the U.S. military during its long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, from shootings at check-points to drone bombings. In the battle for Mosul, Iraqi and U.S.-led coalition war planes have also been pounding parts of the city.

Figures of such casualties are hard to come by. Washington has stressed its forces take every effort to avoid them.

On Tuesday, a prominent Iraqi politician and businessman, Khamis Khanjar, said at least 3,500 civilians have been killed in west Mosul since the offensive closed in on it.

The U.S.-led coalition said in a statement that up to March 4, it had assessed that "more likely than not", at least 220 civilians had been unintentionally killed by coalition strikes since the start of Operation Inherent Resolve.

While the men and women of Odin battery were fully aware of the risk, they believe in their work.

"We love to fire. It makes me very happy," Floyd said. "At night it is very beautiful."

(Editing by Hugh Lawson)
 

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http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ersonnel-show-force-aimed-china/#.WM0AXm_yvmE

ASIA PACIFIC

French carrier to lead joint amphibious Pacific drill with Japanese, U.S. personnel in show of force aimed at China

BY NOBUHIRO KUBO AND TIM KELLY
REUTERS
MAR 18, 2017
ARTICLE HISTORY

In a display of military power aimed at China, France will dispatch one of its powerful Mistral amphibious carriers to lead drills on and around Tinian island in the Western Pacific, with Japanese and U.S. personnel and two troop-carrying helicopters sent by Britain, two sources have said.

“Rather than just being a naval exercise, this amphibious exercise will send a clear message to China,” said one of the sources, who were not authorized to talk to the media and so asked not to be identified.

The exercise will take place in the second and third week of May, the other source said.

As China’s military strength grows with the addition of power-projecting aircraft carriers, Beijing is extending its influence beyond its coastal waters into the Pacific. The move worries Japan and the United States, but is also a concern for France, which controls several Pacific island territories, including New Caledonia and French Polynesia.

China is building a second aircraft carrier, the Shandong, which when complete will join the Liaoning, which was bought from Ukraine in 1998 and refitted in China. In December the Liaoning led a group of Chinese warships that sailed through waters south of Japan.

Administered by the U.S., Tinian is part of the Northern Mariana Islands, which include Guam, lying about 2,500 km (1553 miles) south of Tokyo.

Japan, a close ally of the U.S., possesses Asia’s second-strongest navy after China and is forging closer defense ties with both France and Britain.

London in October dispatched four of its Typhoon fighter jets to Japan to train with the Air Self-Defense Force. The British aircraft flew over the disputed South China Sea on the way back to assert overflight rights above the disputed waters.

A spokesman for the Self-Defense Forces said nothing had been decided when asked if there would be a joint amphibious exercise with France, the United States and Britain.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sunday was to travel to Europe for talks with European Union leaders, which will include a meeting French President Francois Hollande.

Officials at the French and British embassies in Tokyo were not immediately available for comment. A spokeswoman for the U.S. Forces Japan was not immediately able to comment.

ASIA PACIFIC
U.S. denies report Tillerson cut short meetings over ‘fatigue’
North Korea, South China Sea on Tillerson’s agenda as he visits Beijing
South Korean prosecutors question SK Group chief in corruption probe
Philippines to strengthen military facilities in contested South China Sea
 

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http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...ght-military-action-north-korea/#.WM0Br28rLmE

ASIA PACIFIC / POLITICS | ANALYSIS

With ‘all options on the table,’ Pentagon gives deep thought to military action against North Korea

AFP-JIJI
MAR 18, 2017

WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says diplomacy has failed and military action against nuclear-armed North Korea is an “option on the table,” and President Donald Trump insists a long-range nuke from Pyongyang “won’t happen.”

While war with North Korea may be unlikely for now, Pentagon planners and private analysts have given deep thought to how U.S. military intervention with the reclusive country would play out.

Hint: There are no easy options, and the risks are enormous.

Pre-emptive military action against Pyongyang would mean the United States and its allies won’t wait until a North Korean nuclear ballistic missile is launched, even though dense defense networks could likely shoot one down.

So the first question would be whether to go all in — a la Iraq — and push for regime change, or whether to limit intervention to surgical strikes on nuclear program targets.

Stratfor, a U.S. private intelligence firm that recently published a paper looking at possible Pentagon options, said Washington does not want a long-term intervention in North Korea, meaning “levels of violence would be limited.”

A broader military campaign would risk full-scale war, and Pyongyang would inevitably be forewarned, making it more likely it would carry out its own pre-emptive strikes.

Bruce Klingner, who formerly worked for the CIA and now specializes in Korean and Japanese affairs for the Heritage Foundation think tank, warned that any pre-emptive allied strikes or missile shoot-downs should only occur in the event of an imminent North Korean attack.

The United States has an “ironclad” alliance with South Korea and has stationed thousands of troops there since the Korean War ended in an armistice, with about 28,000 currently based in the South.

The two countries are also currently running joint military drills called Foal Eagle.

A strike on the North would likely come via U.S. stealth bombers, which can penetrate deep into enemy territory without leaving a significant radar trail.

While North Korea has good air defenses, these would be no match for stealth planes like the B-2 bomber, the F-22 fighter and, eventually, the F-35.

America also has ships and submarines in the region, so firing cruise missiles from unexpected locations is also an option.

B-2 stealth bombers carrying Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs and other armaments could easily incapacitate North Korea’s known nuclear production sites and weapons storage facilities.

Stratfor says an initial wave of bombing could be followed up by a massive barrage of F-22 strikes and cruise missiles that would focus on wiping out North Korea’s weapons delivery vehicles.

Pyongyang has about 200 of the so-called Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) dotted around the country.

But destroying Pyongyang’s obvious military targets does little to prevent North Korea delivering a nuclear device through other means — perhaps via a civilian fishing boat — that would be detonated by a suicide operative.

Leader Kim Jong Un is well aware he has limited — but powerful — options when it comes to retaliation.

An all-out attack on South Korea, Japan and U.S. military bases would most likely bring about a massive international response and hasten the end of his regime.

But even a limited response would be devastating.

North Korea has amassed artillery units along its border with South Korea.

The capital, Seoul, is only about 35 miles (55 km) away and some of the canons could rain shells onto the city of 10 million.

Even limited shelling and rocket fire would likely lead to mass casualties.

But that would end badly for the North, said Stratfor analyst Sim Tack, who co-authored the report.

It would put “the United States and its allies into a position where they have no choice but to come in and try and destroy the entire military capability of North Korea,” Tack said.

Stratfor warns the U.S. and its allies lack perfect intelligence on North Korea, so they would not be certain they had destroyed all nuclear devices and delivery vehicles.

“The longer the North Korean program evolves, the more this becomes a reality,” the Stratfor report states.

“Realistically, absent the use of nuclear weapons or the invasion and occupation of North Korea, the United States and its allies are already at a point where they cannot guarantee the complete removal of the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack.”

Another big unknown is China.

Beijing likes having North Korea as a buffer between itself and U.S.-allied South Korea, but also has shown signs of impatience over North Korea’s continued nuclear testing.
 

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http://ijr.com/2017/03/827413-trans...-sit-interview-secretary-state-rex-tillerson/

POLITICS

Transcript: Independent Journal Review's Sit-Down Interview With Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

BY ERIN MCPIKE
2 HOURS AGO

In his first sit-down interview since becoming secretary of state, Rex Tillerson spoke with Independent Journal Review's Erin McPike about the challenges of American diplomacy with China, the imminent threat of North Korea's nuclear capabilities, and his reasoning behind his limited press access.

This interview was provided to the traveling press.

You can listen to the entire interview here.

TRANSCRIPT:

Erin McPike: First of all let me just ask you since the South Korean newspaper reported that you cancelled dinner because of fatigue, and then they said you spent more time with the Japanese than the South Koreans. What happened?

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson: They never invited us for dinner, then at they last minute they realized that optically it wasn’t playing very well in public for them, so they put out a statement that we didn’t have dinner because I was tired.

EM: So are you saying they lied about it?

RT: No, it was just their explanation.

EM: Ok.

RT: I had dinner last night.

EM: You had dinner last night. With who? Your staff?

RT: The host country decides whether we are going to do things or not. We didn’t decide that.

EM: Given the focus that they’re saying was on Japan, let me say broadly— it seems like there is an extraordinary focus on Japan from the administration, given the President’s two meetings with Abe, your visit, Mattis’ visit, and the Vice President coming next month—Japan is getting more focus at a high level than any other country. It has to be more than just a reassurance mission. What do you want from the Japanese and what can you give the Japanese?

RT: Well, let me correct a little bit just from the perspective on what you just said.

There has been a high level visit with the Japanese because the Japanese prime minister is in place. South Korea’s government is not in place. So there has been an opportunity for a high level meeting, so let’s keep things in perspective. When Secretary Mattis came, [he] came to Korea also. So no preference given there. Vice President Pence’s trip next month—he’s going to both countries also. So there is no... I don’t think anything should be made that there is some kind of imbalance in the relationship. I think it’s more of a reflection of the situation with the Korean Government. The impeachment of president—the Korean president—they have an interim government now. They’ll have a new government in place after elections in May. So in the meantime, the level of communication between our governments at the active ministerial level and active <presence> level has been very—it’s been frequent. Foreign minister Yun and I have met several times and have spoken on the phone several times, so I don’t think anything should be read into the amount of time with visits. I think people making more of that than they should.

EM: Ok then, separate from that, with respect to Japan, there is a lot of focus. So beyond the reassurance part of the process, what do you want from Japan? What can you give to Japan?

RT: Are you talking about from a State Department standpoint, or just broadly, the relationship?

EM: Both.

RT: Well, Japan is—because of the size of their economy—they are our most important ally in the region, because of the standpoint of both security issues, economic issues, stability issues. So that’s not anything new. That’s been the situation now, for decades. South Korea, similarly, is an important partner relative to stability of northeast Asia. Japan has a larger footprint in the Asian Pacific region so, obviously, those relationships are where our common interests are aligned. The attention on South Korea early in this administration has been dominated by the actions of North Korea, and that’s taken a lot of careful time and attention. Japan, also, is obviously an important element of that trilateral relationship.

[05:04]

EM: You told Fox yesterday that ‘nothing is off the table’ with respect to the nuclearization of the Korean peninsula. In your confirmation hearing, you kind of said that South Korea and Japan don’t need to have nuclear weapons. Has your view changed, given the urgency of the situation with North Korea, particularly because Japan could finalize development of a nuclear weapon rather quickly if they needed to?

RT: No, it has not, nor has the policy of the United States changed. Our objective is a denuclearized Korean peninsula. A denuclearized Korean peninsula negates any thought or need for Japan to have nuclear weapons. We say all options are on the table, but we cannot predict the future. So we do think it is important that everyone in the region has a clear understanding that circumstances could evolve to the point that for mutual deterrence reasons, we might have to consider that. But as I said yesterday, there are a lot of… there’s a lot of steps and a lot of distance between now and a time that we would have to make a decision like that. Our objective is to have the regime in North Korea come to a conclusion that the reasons that they have felt they have had to develop nuclear weapons, those reasons are not well-founded. We want to change that understanding. With that, we do believe that if North Korea [were to] stand down on this nuclear program, that is their quickest means to begin to develop their economy and to become a vibrant economy for the North Korean people. If they don’t do that, they will have a very difficult time developing their economy.

EM: Over the last couple of days, you’ve laid out a couple of options that you can take, saying that all options are on the table. But, what is option one?

RT: Well, option one is to send very strong messages to North Korea by way of the sanctions—sanctions which have already been imposed by the UN Security Council resolutions, and to ask that everyone fully implement those sanctions. And there are additional steps that we can take to increase the pressure on the regime in hopes that they will understand the path they’re on is simply not sustainable.

EM: And those steps—what’s step one and what’s step two?

RT: Well, the first steps are the UN sanctions. There are broader sanctions that we can consider. I think that there are additional actions that the UN, that we can consider. There are broader participation by other countries in putting pressure on North Korea. So, this is a staged approach in which we want to give the North Korean government time to understand what’s happening, time to make decisions and adjust. We’re not… it’s not our objective to force them into some brash action. It’s our objective for them to understand things only continue to get more difficult if they don’t change their path. We want to give you time to change your path.

EM: Now the liberal opposition likely to take office in South Korea, and the Chinese are obviously opposed to that. My understanding, though, is that in addition to the North Koreans trying to send a message complaining about U.S. military exercises, part of the reason that they deployed four missiles at the same time was to practice … beating missile defense systems. So, how do you get ahead of the North Koreans, particularly when the Chinese and the next administration in South Korea want more engagement and less of a military posturing?

RT: Well that’s the point. We’re not sure if we can get ahead of them. If they just continue, you know, we’re headed to a place no one wants to be. And that’s why the actions are tending to cause them to pause and rethink the pathway you’re on. ‘Cause if they continue with their testing and continue with development of both their weapons and their delivery systems, then we’re going to find ourselves in a place that’s even more dangerous than we are today.

EM: How danger—

RT: And we don’t want anyone to arrive at that destination.

[10:00]

EM: How dangerous is the place we’re in today? The State Department just announced that Joseph Yun is on the way here for six days. What’s his mission? What are the next steps? How urgent is it right now?

RT: Well, in terms of the urgency right now is to ensure that the regime of Pyongyang has heard the message. That’s why we’ve tried to be very clear and succinct with the message, which is, first, we do not intend to be a threat to you. We do not want to have a conflict with you. We want you to change your direction. And we want others in the region to help us help them make a different decision. That’s the first step. And then obviously that has to be backed up with action, so that they understand we’re serious. And that means soliciting others to help us with that message and backing that message up to North Korea: that you need to change directions.

EM: Which includes the Chinese. Now hours before we took off for Beijing, the President got onto Twitter and said “North Koreans are behaving badly and China has done little to help.” So let me ask, did you know that was coming? Was that an intentional … you’re shaking your head, no. So you don’t know if that was an intentional bargaining chip (RT: No) to set a table with the Chinese? Does it complicate your mission this weekend?

RT: No, it’s consistent with the discussions I had with the President before I left on this trip. I had a very good conversation with the President on the approach that I felt was necessary with North Korea, including all of the parties that we think have to be a part of this. So, I did not know that he was going to tweet anything out, but the message that he sent out is very consistent with the message that I’ve been delivering so far in Tokyo and in Seoul. And I don’t think it will come as any surprise to the Chinese government that we do not view that they have ever fully used all of the influence available to them to cause the North Korean regime to rethink its pursuit of these weapons, and that’s some of what I’ll be talking with the Chinese government about as well is, you know, they need to understand: what are they willing to do? How far are they willing to go? Can this be an area of mutual cooperation between two great powers to bring peace and stability to the Korean peninsula? And let's be great powers. Let’s denuclearize the peninsula. That has been China’s stated policy for more than two decades—is a denuclearized Korean peninsula. They need to help solve this.

EM: So I assume then, that that is the number one thing that you want out of the Chinese. And I say that because the U.S. has a lot of issues with the Chinese between trade, currency manipulation, territorial expansion in the South China Sea, military modernization, the list goes on, human rights violations. So in your mind, the number one thing, the non-negotiable thing is whatever you can get out of the Chinese on a tougher approach to North Korea.

RT: No one issue defines the relationship between the U.S. and China. We will be talking about a broad range of issues when I’m in Beijing. But the threat of North Korea is imminent. And it has reached a level that we are very concerned about the consequences of North Korea being allowed to continue on this progress it’s been making on the development of both weapons and delivery systems. And it’s reached a very alarming state to us. So it is getting a lot of discussion up front because it’s imminent. We have a broad range of issues that define the relationship. This is but one. There are others, and you listed them. All of them have their importance in the U.S.-China relationship, but this one— as I said—just happens to be bubbled to the top because of the recent actions that have been taken by North Korea.

EM: In diplomacy, obviously, you have to do some negotiating. What is the U.S. willing to give China to get out of the relationship what you want?

RT: Well we’re not going to share with you any of what we might be talking about relative to things that are important to China, things that are important to the U.S. And that’s really something that, before we get to that stage, we’ve got to have a higher level of dialogue between the two leaders of the country—between President Trump and President Xi—to frame this overall relationship and frame the dialogue itself. Again, the North Korea challenge has come to our door, not by anything we’ve done. It’s come to us because of what North Korea’s done. We’ve had no control over them. And it requires immediate attention. But the overall China-U.S. relationship really needs better clarity that can only be achieved by a meeting between our two leaders—a face-to-face meeting—and some time for them to be together and some time for us to exchange views in a number of these areas—whether they’re economic or security or cultural and people to people—how there’s a whole array of issues to be discussed. That will define the relationship. Because there’s nothing to be negotiated at this point until we have a clear understanding of their priorities and they have a clear understanding of ours. And yes, there’s going to be differences. And we’ll have to talk about how to resolve those differences or at least how to live with those differences. Again, I want to set the North Korea issue over here to the side. It is only occupying our attention right now because of the imminent circumstances. But I don’t want anyone to feel like that is going to define the relationship.

[16:33]

EM: Let me ask you how a human rights issue impacts this, which is that, as you probably know, China has a policy of repatriating North Korean refugees. I’m wondering if you think that China is in violation of the UN convention on refugees, and if they should change that stance because it could shed more light on what’s going on in North Korea for the rest of the world.

RT: Well, that is one among several issues attached to North Korea, but also attached to a broader, I think, view that we would want to take with China regarding treatment of people under that broad category of human rights. The American people’s commitment to human rights and championing of people the world over—it’s embedded in everything we do. I never have viewed that it sits out here to the side that we somehow have to deal with it separately. It really is a part of every policy that we’re discussing, whether it’s economic or security or whatever the policy may be. Embedded in all of those is always with us is the protection of people, advocating for people’s freedom, advocating for a better life for others. That is just a part of the American values system that is part of every policy discussion we have. So it will always be ever-present in our conversations with the Chinese.

EM: Going back to the relationship with China—just one question on that for now—which is, you referred to them at one point as a partner on one issue, as an ally on another. Can you say whether or not China is a potential friend? Is it an adversary? Is it a global competitor, a regional competitor? How do you define it now? And what do you want to define it as in six months?

RT: Well, again, I think that requires more conversations by the two leaders and a greater understanding from both sides as to their priorities, ours, their aspirations and ours. I do think we’re at somewhat of a historic moment in the U.S.-China relationship. It has been defined for the past 40 years by the opening of China, the Nixon-Kissinger visit. During that time, by and large, the U.S. and China have found a way to exist together in this world, to deal with our conflicts. We’ve never fought a war with each other, other than on the Korean peninsula. That’s the only time we’ve fought a war with each other. And even as China’s country and economy have grown, and now occupies its place in the global economy, we have always managed to exist with one another in a spirit of non-conflict. It doesn’t mean we don’t have differences, but we’ve always found ways to either resolve them or to live with them. Accept that we have differences and move on and still do what’s in the best interest of our people and China, in the best interest of theirs. But I do think because of what is happening globally with people in the world over— globalization itself—that we’re at perhaps at an inflection point in the relationship of global powers in general. And I do think that the Chinese and the U.S. need to have a fresh conversation about what will define the relationship between the United States and China for the next 50 years. We can look back and see how successful we’ve been, 40 years of what I would say has been a very successful relationship with two very powerful nations living with one another without conflict. But now we find that there are issues arising that have gone unresolved. And I think how we are able to talk about those and how we are able to chart our course forward is going to set, potentially the relationship in a new era of existing together without conflict, in an era of non-conflict. Again, it doesn’t mean we won’t have differences, but we will find how are we going to live with one another for the next 50 years. Because I think there’s a question, perhaps even in the minds of the Chinese: How will the American people, the Chinese people, live with each other in this world for the next half century?

[21:19]

EM: Are you concerned about the message that you might be sending China by not taking a traveling press pool with you into China, which restricts press access. There’s obviously been a lot of uproar over press access to you, especially on this trip. Will you ever do this again?

RT: This what? You mean this… where I don’t take —

EM: Yes.

RT: Look, it’s driven by a couple of things. Primarily it’s driven—believe it or not, you won’t believe it—we’re trying to save money. I mean, quite frankly, we’re saving a lot of money by using this aircraft, which also flies faster, allows me to be more efficient, and we’re going to destinations that, by and large, the media outlets have significant presence already, so we’re not hiding from any coverage of what we’re doing. The fact that the press corps is not traveling on the plane with me, I understand that there’s two aspects of that. One, there’s a convenience aspect. I get it. The other is, I guess, what I’m told is that there’s this long tradition that the Secretary spends time on the plane with the press. I don’t know that I’ll do a lot of that. I’m just not… that’s not the way I tend to work. That’s not the way I tend to spend my time. I spend my time working on this airplane. The entire time we’re in the air, I’m working. Because there is a lot of work to do in the early stages. Maybe things will change and evolve in the future. But I hope people don’t misunderstand there’s nothing else behind it than those simple objectives.

EM: I have heard the cost savings issue, but there has been such an uproar. Does that bother you or do you take their message, especially, like I said, going into China and the restriction of the press there?

RT: Well, as I understand it, most major news outlets have presence in China. They have bureau offices. They have people there. So it’s not like can’t cover what’s happening there. The only thing that’s missing is the chance to talk more in the air.

EM: Well, that’s —

RT: There’s not going to be anything, in terms of access, visibility is what we’re doing, there isn’t any other, that I can see, there’s nothing else to it.

EM: Right so your answer is you don’t intend to change this model for your next trip.

RT: It’s gonna be trip dependent. It doesn’t mean we won’t, but we’re gonna look at every trip in terms of what my needs are. Look my needs are... First and foremost is what is my mission and why am I going? How can I best accomplish that mission? What’s the most effective way for me to do that? I’m not a big media press access person. I personally don’t need it. I understand it’s important to get the message of what we’re doing out, but I also think there’s only a purpose in getting the message out when there’s something to be done. And so we have a lot of work to do, and when we’re ready to talk about what we’re trying to do, I will be available to talk to people. But doing daily availability, I don’t have this appetite or hunger to be that, have a lot of things, have a lot of quotes in the paper or be more visible with the media. I view that the relationship that I want to have with the media, is the media is very important to help me communicate not just to the American people, but to others in the world that are listening. And when I have something important and useful to say, I know where everybody is and I know how to go out there and say it. But if I don’t because we’re still formulating and we’re still deciding what we’re going to do, there is not going to be a lot to say. And I know that you’ve asked me a lot of questions here that I didn’t answer, and I’m not answering them because we have some very, very complex strategic issues to make our way through with important countries around the world, and we’re not going to get through them by just messaging through the media. We get through them in face to face meetings behind closed doors. We can be very frank, open, and honest with one another and then we’ll go out and we’ll have something to share about that, but the truth of the matter is all of the tactics and all of the things were going to do you will know them after they’ve happened.

EM: And I appreciate that, but there is another element to press access which is accountability of U.S. government officials, and one thing in particular that the media took note of over the past week was this report that you had used an email alias at Exxon, and there has been some assumption as to why you did that in terms of talking about climate change outside of your normal email address, and hiding that in some way and, given that one of your predecessors had serious email issues, obviously, I think the press really took note of that story.

RT: The press needs to go ask Exxon Mobil about it and that’s been answered. And it is a very simple explanation but I don’t work, I mean, but it came up in the course of some litigation or potential litigation, I can’t comment on it and I can’t speak for Exxon Mobil either, so if you directed all questions about it back to Exxon Mobil.

EM: Sure. Going forward though, I assume you won’t be using a private server or an email alias as Secretary of State.

RT: I have two cell phones. One of them I call it my grandkids phone and the other is Uncle Sam's phone, and I carry them both with me and I try to make sure people don’t get confused about which one they are supposed to call me on or which one they are supposed to text me on. And when they do I send them a message back to them say don’t text this one this is my government phone text (inaudible)

Unknown: So your grandkids ask you stuff about the State Department?

RT: No. It's the family and friends phone and this Uncle Sam's phone.

EM: I gotcha. I gotcha. I can keep going.

Unknown: Oh no, you’re all set.

EM: But I would like to talk further about all of your plans —

RT: And I told RC I’m happy to talk a little bit more on the flight home with you as well. Look, I hope people in the media are, I don’t know how to explain it any better part of it is just the way my personal style is I’ve been very successful diplomatically for over 25 years. Done some really tough deals around the world with some really difficult governments and I’ve been successful because I was always able to respect their integrity and respect the fact that they have a population they have to take care of and the less I said about what we were trying to do in public, the easier was for them to manage the outcome, and in the end we could be successful. There’s a lot of those same elements of what I’m trying to do as the top diplomat for the United States Government—the difference being I have a population that I have to take care of too now that I’m accountable to, and I understand that very well. So I think that—I would hope that people can maintain their patience in these early days and recognize I’ve only been at it 6 weeks. I’m on a major mission right now that’s extraordinarily important because of the imminent threat. I have others ahead of me. I’m just now getting to the point where I have—we have our thinking formulated well enough that I think we can talk about some things to the public. To talk about them before they are formulated isn’t useful to anyone, most importantly the people we are trying to get things done with.

EM: I hear you. Thank you very much.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/countering-the-daesh-narrative

Countering the Daesh Narrative

by Cheryl Phillips
Journal Article | March 18, 2017 - 1:48am

In the information war against Daesh, communication professionals must understand how the enemy’s narrative is constructed and promulgated. Only then can the United States and its partners offer alternative narratives. The West must also create a marketplace of ideas where these alternative narratives are discussed and debated and compete with Daesh for influence. These actions will counter Daesh’s propaganda and narrative that continue to attract recruits, sympathizers and supporters to its ideology.

Expressing his dissatisfaction with current efforts to defeat Daesh, President Donald Trump in January signed a Presidential Memorandum calling for the Department of Defense (DOD) to deliver a preliminary plan within 30 days that included information operations and other means to “isolate and delegitimize ISIS and its radical Islamist ideology.” This effort illustrates the Trump administration’s view of the importance to national security of undermining the Daesh narrative.

The DOD plan, delivered the end of February, draws on all elements of national power – “diplomatic, financial, cyber, intelligence [and] public diplomacy, and it’s been drafted in close coordination with our interagency partners.”[ii] Administration officials continue to make Daesh’s defeat the centerpiece of national security strategy. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson later in March will host the foreign ministers and senior leaders of the Global Coalition to defeat Daesh, accelerating international efforts to destroy the extremist group militarily and starve it of funding, weapons and fighters.[iii] Brett McGurk, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition, views the fight against Daesh as an “unprecedented challenge.”[iv] General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes that Daesh remains a threat to the nation and it citizens, partners and allies.[v]

The focus of the previous administration’s plan to counter extremist messaging is the work of the Global Engagement Center. Established in March 2016, it replaced the Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications which was unable to successfully counter violent extremist propaganda during its six years of existence. A past National Security Council spokesman acknowledged that “the [Obama] administration’s initial strategy responding to the Islamic State’s messaging blitz wasn’t successful and needed to change.”[vi]

Despite the prior administration’s strategy, statements and reorganization efforts, “our narrative is being trumped by ISIL’s.”[vii] Then Undersecretary of Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs at the State Department, Richard Stengel made that pronouncement in a June 2015 internal assessment of actions by the Obama administration to combat the Daesh propaganda machine.

Although Daesh has recently lost large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria and has steadily lost some of its appeal, the group is still has a potent propaganda machine. Despite setbacks, Daesh has expanded its reach to Yemen, Egypt, Turkey, Libya, Somalia, Tunisia and the Philippines. Since its inception, Daesh’s message globally attracts thousands of recruits and supporters, both physically and virtually. U.S. Congressional testimony and media reports put the number at more than 40,000 foreign fighters who have answered the call and flowed into Syria and Iraq since 2011.[viii] The Soufan Group, a strategic security consultancy, reported that the number of foreign fighters traveling to Syria more than doubled between June 2014 and December 2015.[ix]

Identities and Narratives

To begin any discussion of efforts to counter Daesh’s ideology and its promotion of terrorist acts, it is necessary to understand the concepts of individual and collective identities. An individual identity is constituted through social ties, or interacting relational networks. Different relationships with overlapping networks result in multiple identities – a lawyer can be a friend and a terrorist. An individual also has a collective identity gained from association with a group’s identity, whether religious, ethnic, national or the like.[x]

It is equally important to understand the concept of narrative. It is easy to think of a narrative as a story, especially when references to narratives as stories are frequently found in government documents, academic articles and the media. While narratives are empowered by “the art of telling stories,”[xi] Cristina Archetti argues that this analogy is too simple: “narratives are more complex than a story.”[xii]

The network of relationships shape an individual’s worldview, how information is interpreted, his or her behaviors and comprise an individual narrative. Archetti describes an individual narrative as the “unique perspective that an individual has on the world from his/her ‘corner’ of social reality.”[xiii]

Archetti borrows from relational sociology, actor network theory and social movement theory which maintain that narratives have deep cultural roots and are socially constructed over centuries. They “arise from a specific constellation of relationships – a social network.” Groups have their own collective narratives, such as a sense of belonging to a democracy, to which an individual comes into contact. [xiv]

A person’s individual narrative can be influenced by other narratives within that individual’s social network – a collection of relationships. A person comes into contact with other actors’ individual narratives, like friends for example, and collective narratives, like the sense of being a member of a democracy. Alberto Melucci states that terrorist groups “offer individuals the collective possibility of affirming themselves as actors and of finding an equilibrium between self-recognition and hetero-recognition.”[xv]

A person may or may not join an extremist group depending on whether his or her narrative is compatible with that of the group’s. Individuals who are members of the extremist’s network accept and align their own narrative with the collective Daesh narrative if it resonates and is relevant to their particular identity and situation. [xvi]

Individuals do not substitute their narrative for an external narrative. Being a member of a group means sharing a common collective narrative while at the same time having an individual narrative that is compatible with it.[xvii] “What matters is that terrorist action is the outcome of an identity and a corresponding narrative that legitimizes violent action.”[xviii]

An individual will filter incoming information through his or her narrative. Over time this might lead to a change in the individual’s worldview, relationships, identity, narrative and behavior in a continuous cycle. This is critical to understanding how to disrupt potential terrorist behavior or support.[xix] If an individual considers a differing narrative from that offered by Daesh, it may displace the terrorist ideology with an alternative that promotes positive political action rather than terrorist acts or tacit support to achieve societal change.

Archetti states that “where there is a narrative there must be a network.”[xx] Daesh uses relational networks to promote its propaganda, ideology and narrative, where it is continuously retold and reinterpreted by various actors to different intended audiences.[xxi]. Social media makes it even easier for Daesh and its followers to retell the narrative.

Western governments fixate on finding the right message that can be sent audiences to counter the extremist narrative. This line of thinking assumes a “silver bullet” approach to communication that expects individuals to receive and accept a particular message. As said earlier, where there is a narrative there must be a network. Sending a counter-narrative message “into the information environment…without there being a network to convey it and re-convey it could be compared to sending a message into outer space.” [xxii]

The Daesh Narrative

Daesh has created and promoted its ideology through a narrative “linked to an overarching strategic goal ‘to win hearts and minds’ and to provide a clear meaning to confusing events.” In actuality, the Daesh narrative is an instrument of psychological warfare.[xxiii] Certainly the 15-plus years of war in the Middle East have created confusion, marginalization, experiences of discrimination and grievances in the affected populations that can become easily drawn to Daesh’s narrative.

Vulnerable individuals are attracted to a narrative that attempts to make sense of the world where their own community is mythologized, enemies are degraded, and conspiracy theories and salvation themes abound. “A narrative is thus a powerful, culturally embedded story, which consists of a mosaic of coherent stories and employs all semiotic levels.” Understanding their audiences, Daesh makes use of symbolisms, emotive images and music, popular stories and authoritative theology and ideology.[xxiv]

Academics agree that in general a narrative has a beginning, middle and conclusion. According to Quiggin, the beginning contains the grievance and an antagonist; the middle has a protagonist; the conclusion reveals the solution or calls on audiences to act on the problem. “This tri-part structure of a set-up, a climax and a resolution is a recurring theme.”[xxv]

David Betts maintains that the terrorist narrative the United States must counter goes something like this:

“Islam is under general unjust attack by Western crusaders led by the United States;
“Jihadis, whom the West refers to as ‘terrorists’ are defending against this attack;
“The actions they take in defense of Islam are proportionally just and religiously sanctified; and, therefore,
“It is the duty of good Muslims to support these actions.”[xxvi]
Further, Daesh adapts its narrative to account for local conditions in countries where it has or is planning to establish a presence, such as Libya, Afghanistan, Egypt, Somalia, Algeria and Yemen. Daesh appeals to disillusioned individuals globally by offering a close community with a potent identity. The collective Daesh narrative feeds into these individuals’ identities, “giving them a sense of serving a sacred mission.”[xxvii]

The Alternative Narrative

Informed by an understanding of Daesh’s narrative, Western communicators can craft an effective strategy to counter the propaganda. An alternative message will undercut Daesh’s narrative by providing other avenues for action rather than brutal acts to achieve political and social objectives. While alternative narratives typically do not directly challenge extremist messaging, “they instead attempt to influence those who might be sympathetic towards (but not actively supportive of) extremist causes, or help to unite the silent majority against extremists by emphasizing solidarity, common causes and shared values.”[xxviii] Alternative narratives focus on what we are “for” rather than what we are “against.”[xxix]

An example of a positive alternative narrative is former President Barack Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech. In it he reframed “the history between Islam and the West as one of shared progress.” This counter-narrative had a beginning, middle and end and “provided a positive, alternative vision or social construction of the world…that is equally plausible and equally parsimonious as the narrative it disputes.”[xxx] Unfortunately, Obama’s positive alternate narrative was unable to effectively counter Daesh’s and other extremist groups’ narratives.

It is important to provide many alternative messages and choices to dissuade those attracted to Daesh’s ideology. The more alternatives available to potential recruits, the greater their freedom and the less vulnerable they are to extremist narratives. “Having these choices will help reduce the likelihood that the terrorists’ and extremists’ global narrative – that the West is at war with Islam – resonates in individual psyches.”[xxxi]

Voices From Within

One of the strategic principles of the effort to undercut Daesh’s ideology and narrative is that to be effective, the alternative message should arise as much as possible from within the Muslim world. A possibly more promising approach is for the United States to bolster the voices of local and regional individuals who can promote a viable alternative narrative. The U.S. government should support and facilitate civil society efforts to design and deliver alternative narratives and take advantage of their social and cultural knowledge.[xxxii]

The United States should build capacity among those who can be the best counter-narrative messengers. There are a variety of alternative narratives that can be activated by a range of actors: inter-faith and inter-community networks, religious and secular opinion and community leaders, entrepreneurs, sports personalities, pop artists, writers, business people, media personalities and students. These voices can come together to create a marketplace of ideas where Muslims can talk among themselves and devise ways to diminish the influence of Daesh.[xxxiii]

A marketplace of ideas is the space and culture of questioning, debating and challenging the local grievances and solutions promoted by Daesh. Here competing ideas and visions can be heard and fostered, and Daesh’s inconsistencies can be exposed. A forum for this marketplace of ideas can occur in civic spaces such as town hall meetings, free associations, non-governmental universities and other places where people can gather. Virtual spaces can also serve as important forums for exchanging ideas, including newspapers, television, chat rooms and Internet blog sites. In authoritative regimes where civic space and freedom to assemble is restricted, virtual meeting places provide a viable alternative.[xxxiv]

The important issue for the West is how it can stimulate and shape a debate among Muslims about the extremist ideology promoted by Daesh. The goal is to help amplify diverse voices.[xxxv]

A counter-narrative campaign should be integrated at the outset of U.S. and ally government policy and strategy design, not as an afterthought. These programs should include a communication component that outlines how the initiative will support and enable U.S. objectives.

Conducting a thorough Target Audience Analysis is critical. Communicators need to develop a comprehensive list of the target audiences’ vulnerabilities and susceptibilities, which include grievances and motivations in the context of local and regional conditions.

There are differing views as to whom to target with an alternative counter-narrative, whether those who are already active extremists, somewhere along the radicalization path, sympathizers or passive supporters. Aiming alternative narratives at existing extremists is likely to be unsuccessful, given they have already made up their minds. The United States should instead target the radical network of relationships, rather than an individual. By altering an extremist’s network and the embedded narrative, the extremist’s identity can gradually change, “to a point perhaps in which the person is no longer an extremist.”[xxxvi]

The United States should also target those who sympathize or actively support Daesh, either by acts of omission or commission. This includes moderate Muslims who do not speak up against Daesh because of fear and timidity.[xxxvii] Again, the efforts should be targeted to the networks of these individuals.

One Size Does Not Fit All

Of important consideration is that one size does not fit all. The Qatar International Academy for Security Studies report “Countering Violent Extremism: The Counter Narrative Study” emphasized that “each region, country and community requires a unique approach to countering the call to terrorism because violent extremism is a fundamentally local issue, one commonly sparked by local grievances.”[xxxviii] In fact, Daesh adroitly uses this approach to tailor narratives that take advantage of the grievances of a particular region. Additionally, the United States must take a whole-of-government approach, coordinating and synchronizing with other entities the government and with international partners to ensure message coherence.

The credibility of the messenger should be considered, something the United States lacks with many audiences in the Middle East. It must be kept in mind that credibility should be viewed from the perspective of the audience. As stated earlier, the U.S. government should consider developing relationships with credible local actors such as young religious leaders, community activists, educators, journalists, role models and youth leaders who can deliver believable counter-narratives. Other credible voices are former jihadists, Daesh defectors, victims of terrorism, family members, neighbors and friends.

Multiple media platforms, both online and offline, should be used simultaneously to communicate positive alternative narratives. While there has been a lot of attention on Daesh’s communication through social media, that is not the only medium available. Knowing the audience preferences for media consumption will ensure the message reaches them.

The United States should take a long-term perspective and look for communication effects over an extended period of time. This means that counter-narrative efforts must be continually evaluated and assessed, with changes made to the message, audience, messenger and media based on their effectiveness in achieving the United States’ objectives.

A counter-narrative campaign may be most effective when the United States and its coalition partners are making significant military gains and Daesh is losing territory as is currently the situation, and its recruiting is faltering. Other measures of success are when there is growing popular backlash against its narrative, vision and tactics, and when more positive narratives spread. Thus, the United States must be flexible and adapt the counter-narrative to account for evolving conditions on the ground.

Finally, the United States can stop feeding Deash’s narrative by closing the say-do gap by aligning words and actions. “Ultimately, competing with the mobilizing power of an opponent’s narrative involves increasing one’s own appeal.” The use of torture and extraordinary rendition are just two examples that are contrary to American values and respect for human rights. They serve to reinforce the Daesh narrative that the West is involved in a crusade against Islam. The goal is consistency between words and deeds, what Betz calls “narrative alignment.”[xxxix]

Conclusion

The conflicts in Syria and Iraq will not end soon. Although Daesh is under pressure on the ground, it is likely to survive for some time and it will conduct more lethal operations, continue to morph its message and spread its propaganda and ideology to attract more recruits and supporters. It must be remembered that terrorism is about ideas. Even if Daesh is diminished militarily, its ideology will live on. It is possible that Daesh as a lethal idea will live on long after it is driven out of Mosul and Raqqa. The 9/11 Commission concluded in its final report that eliminating the threat of terrorism requires “prevailing in the longer term over the ideology that gives rise to Islamist terrorism.”[xl]

There can be no compelling counter-narrative until Daesh’s narrative is understood. “If, over time, the collective and individual narratives, in their continuous evolution, come to diverge, the dissonance between them will lead the individual to not identify any longer with the group.”[xli]

Having a greater understanding of the complexity of a narrative can make communication professionals’ efforts to counter Daesh’s communication more effective. Only then can the United States develop feasible options to contest Daesh’s demented view of the world. Masterfully using strategic communication to counter the Daesh narrative will diminish its aura, legitimacy, ideology and appeal. This is crucial to the overall information war against Daesh.

End Notes

Donald Trump, Donald, “Presidential Memorandum Plan to Defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria,” Jan. 28, 2017, 2.

[ii] Cheryl Pellerin, “Pentagon Spokesman Discusses ISIS Preliminary Plan, Budget Amendment,” DoD News, U.S. Department of Defense, Feb. 27, 2017, 1.

[iii] Office of the Spokesperson, “Meeting of Ministers of the Global Coalition,” Department of State, March 9, 2017, 1.

[iv] Brett McGurk, Global Efforts to Defeat ISIS before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 114th Cong., 2nd sess., June 28, 2016, 1.

[v] Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, U.S. National Security Challenges and Ongoing Military Operations before the Senate Armed Services Committee, 114th Cong., 2nd sess., Sept. 22, 2016, 1.

[vi] W.J. Hennigan, “How the White House is Trying Again to Counter Islamic State Propaganda,” LA Times Online, Mar. 18, 2016, 4, http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-islamic-state-propaganda-20160318-story.html (accessed Feb. 27, 2017).

[vii] Richard Stengel, “Note for the Secretary,” U.S. Department of State, June 9, 2015, 1.

[viii] McGurk, 1.

[ix] The Soufan Group, “Foreign Fighters: An Updated Assessment of the Flow of Foreign Fighters into Syria and Iraq,” Dec. 2015, 4.

[x] Cristina Archetti, “Understanding Terrorism in the Age of Global Media: A Communication Approach (Palgrave, New York, NY, 2013), 62-64, 81, 86.

[xi] Philipp Holtmann, “Countering Al-Qaeda’s Single Narrative, Perspectives on Terrorism,” Perspectives on Terrorism, 7, no. 2 (April 2013): 145.

[xii] Mike LaMarca, “Defeating al-Qaeda in the Battle of Ideas: The Case for a U.S. Counter-Narrative,” Department of Political Science, Duke University, 2012, 7-8.

[xiii] Archetti, 81.

[xiv] Archetti. “Terrorism, Communication and New Media: Explaining Radicalization in the Digital Age,” Perspectives on Terrorism, 9, no. 1, (February 2015): 51.

[xv] Ibid. 52, 53.

[xvi] Ibid. 53.

[xvii] Archetti. “Understanding Terrorism in the Age of Global Media,” 86.

[xviii] Archetti, “Terrorism, Communication and New Media, 54.

[xix] Archetti. “Understanding Terrorism in the Age of Global Media,” 85.

[xx] Archetti. “Terrorism, Communication and New Media,” 51.

[xxi] LaMarca 7-8.

[xxii] Archetti. “Terrorism, Communication and New Media,” 51.

[xxiii] Holtmann. 145.

[xxiv] Ibid.

[xxv] Tom Quiggin, “Understanding al-Qaeda’s Ideology for Counter-Narrative Work,” Perspectives on Terrorism, 3, no. 2, (August 2009): 13.

[xxvi] Christian Leuprecht, Todd Hataley and Sophia Moskalenka, Clark McCauley. “Winning the Narrative but Losing the War? Narrative and Counter-Narratives Strategy,” Perspectives on Terrorism, 3, no. 2, (August 2009): 26.

[xxvii] Fawaz A. Gerges, “ISIS and the Third Wave of Jihadism,” Current History, 113, no 767 (12, 2014): 342.

[xxviii] Rachel Briggs and Sebastien Feve, “Review of Programs to Counter Narratives of Violent Extremism: What Works and What are the Implications for Government?” Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2013, 2, 12.

[xxix] Ibid.

[xxx] LaMarca, 35-37.

[xxxi] J. Scott Carpenter, Matthew Levitt and Michael Jackson. “Confronting the Ideology of Radical Extremism,” Journal of National Security Law & Policy, 3, no. 2, (2009): 305.

[xxxii] Briggs and Feve. “Review of Programs to Counter Narratives of Violent Extremism,” Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2013, 12; Feith, Douglas J. “Organizing for a Strategic Ideas Campaign to Counter Ideological Challenges to U.S. National Security,” Hudson Institute, April 2012, 31.

[xxxiii] Ibid.

[xxxiv] Heather S. Gregg, “Fighting the Jihad of the Pen: Countering Revolutionary Islam’s Ideology,” Terrorism and Political Violence, 22, no. 2, (2010): 308-309.

[xxxv] Briggs and Feve, 12; Feith, 31.

[xxxvi] Archetti. “Terrorism, Communication and New Media,” 56.

[xxxvii] Alex P. Schmid, “Al-Qaeda’s Single Narrative and Attempts to Develop Counter-Narratives: The State of Knowledge,” International Center for Counter-Terrorism-The Hague, January 2014, 16.

[xxxviii] Ibid, 20.

[xxxix] Archetti. “Understanding Terrorism in the Age of Global Media,” 142.

[xl] 9/11 Commission Report, July 22, 2004, 380.

[xli] Archetti. “Understanding Terrorism in the Age of Global Media,” 87.



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About the Author


Cheryl Phillips
Colonel Cheryl Phillips is a public affairs officer and a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, now supporting the U.S. Army War College. Cheryl holds a master’s in strategic studies, communication and business administration.
 

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Bangladesh police shoot suspected militant armed with explosives

Reuters
March 17, 2017
Comment

DHAKA (Reuters) - Bangladesh police shot and killed a suspected militant who tried to enter a security checkpost on a motorcycle armed with explosives on Saturday, the latest in a string of security incidents since a deadly attack on a cafe in July.

The latest incident came a day after a suicide bomber blew himself up at a security forces base near the international airport in the South Asian nation's capital, Dhaka.

Bangladesh's counter-terrorism Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) said some of its officers opened fire when a man riding a motorcycle tried to break through a checkpost.

"The man was carrying explosives on his body," the RAB's Legal and Media wing chief Mufti Mahmud Khan told Reuters. He said two officers were wounded in the attack.

Bangladesh has stepped up security at all airports and prisons across the country after Friday's suicide attack. The most serious in a string of attacks in recent years came last July, when gunmen stormed a Dhaka cafe and killed 22 people, most of them foreigners.

On Thursday, four suspected members of an Islamist militant group blamed for the cafe attack were killed during a police raid on their hideout in the southeastern town of Chittagong.

Al Qaeda and the Islamic State militant group have made competing claims over a recent spate of killings of liberals and members of religious minorities in Bangladesh, a mostly Muslim country of 160 million people.

Authorities have consistently ruled out the presence of such transnational groups, blaming domestic militants instead. However, security experts say the scale and sophistication of the cafe attack suggested links to a transnational network.

Police have killed more than 50 suspected militants in shootouts since the cafe attack, including the man they say was its main planner, Bangladesh-born Canadian citizen Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury.

(Reporting by Ruma Paul; Editing by Paul Tait)
 

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French police: man tried to seize weapon at airport, killed

Posted: Mar 18, 2017 1:44 AM PDT
Updated: Mar 18, 2017 2:14 AM PDT
By ANGELA CHARLTON
Associated Press

PARIS (AP) - A man was shot to death Saturday after trying to seize the weapon of a soldier guarding Paris' Orly Airport, prompting a partial evacuation of the terminal, police said.

Authorities warned visitors to avoid the area while an ongoing police operation was underway. Emergency vehicles surrounded the airport as confused passengers gathered in parking lots, and the elite RAID special police force worked to secure the airport.

A national police official said it is unclear whether the attacker acted alone. No information about the slain man or any other injuries was available, she said. The official was not authorized to be publicly named.

The soldier who was attacked is part of the Sentinel special force installed around France to protect sensitive sites after a string of deadly Islamic extremist attacks. The force includes 7,500 soldiers, half deployed in the Paris region and half in the provinces.

Orly is Paris' second-biggest airport behind Charles de Gaulle, serving domestic and international flights, notably to destinations in Europe and Africa.

The shooting came after a similar incident last month at the Louvre Museum in which an Egyptian man attacked soldiers guarding the site and was shot and wounded.

Saturday's attack further rattled France, which remains under a state of emergency after attacks over the past two years that have killed 235 people.

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WORLD NEWS | Sat Mar 18, 2017 | 5:36pm EDT

Man killed at Paris airport planned to 'die for Allah': prosecutor

By Gus Trompiz and Emmanuel Jarry | PARIS

A man shot dead by French soldiers at Paris Orly airport on Saturday shouted he was there to "die for Allah" and tried to seize a soldier's assault rifle, apparently intending to open fire on passengers, a prosecutor said.

The latest in a series of attacks in France forced the evacuation of France's second-busiest airport and thrust security back to the forefront of France's presidential election campaign.

The attacker, named as Ziyed Ben Belgacem, arrived at Orly airport on Saturday morning, threw down a bag containing a can of petrol and seized hold of a woman air force member who was part of a military patrol at the airport, Paris prosecutor Francois Molins said.

Using the servicewoman as a shield, he put his air pistol to her head and shouted at other soldiers with her: "Put down your guns. Put your hands on your head. I am here to die for Allah. In any case, there will be deaths."

The other soldiers then shot and killed Belgacem.

Molins said the assailant, who tried to grab the woman's Famas assault rifle, seemed bent on carrying out a serious attack.

"Given the violence that is shown in the (CCTV) pictures ... you sense that he was determined to go through with it," Molins told a news conference. "Everything leads one to believe he wanted to seize the Famas so that there were deaths and then to fire at people."

On his body, police found a Koran and 750 euros in cash. At his home, they found several grams of cocaine, a machete and some foreign currency, Molins said.

Prosecutors are investigating a number of terrorism-related offences, including attempted murder.

Belgacem's choice of target and evidence that he had been radicalized justified launching a terrorism investigation, Molins said.

Belgacem's father, brother and a cousin are in police custody, Molins said.

ON THE RADAR

Belgacem, 39, was already on the authorities' radar. They spotted him as a radicalized Muslim when he served a prison term several years ago for drug-trafficking.

Several hours earlier, Belgacem shot and wounded a police officer with his air pistol after a routine traffic stop north of Paris before fleeing, officials said.

After the first incident, Belgacem called his father and brother saying he had done something stupid, the prosecutor said.

Later he entered a bar in Vitry-sur-Seine on the other side of Paris and opened fire with his air gun without hitting anyone. He also stole a car before arriving at the airport.

More than 230 people have died in France in the past two years at the hands of attackers allied to the militant Islamist group Islamic State, whose strongholds in Syria and Iraq are being bombed by an international coalition including France.

These include coordinated bombings and shootings in November 2015 in Paris when 130 people were killed and scores injured.

With the country in the throes of a highly-charged election campaign before a two-round presidential election in April and May, the attacks will fuel the political debate.

Conservative presidential candidate Francois Fillon said in a video message that France was in a "situation of virtual civil war" and there was no justification for lifting a state of emergency in place since the November 2015 attacks, after the justice minister said this week conditions were in place for lifting it.

Far-right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen, running on an anti-immigration, anti-EU ticket, said the death of the Orly airport attacker, who she said was a multiple repeat offender, had averted a "possible massacre".

"Our government is overwhelmed, stunned, paralyzed like a rabbit in the headlights," she told an election rally.

One witness, who gave only his first name of Dominique, said he saw a man seize the woman soldier by the arm at the airport and take hold of her weapon.

"We ran off, down the staircase. Afterwards, we heard two shots," he told BFM TV.

Flights from Orly were suspended for several hours after the incident.

Prince William, second-in-line to the British throne, and his wife Kate, who finished a two-day visit to Paris on Saturday stuck to their plans despite the attack.

President Francois Hollande said the case had shown the need for the "Sentinelle" security operation brought in after 2015 attacks. The soldiers involved were patrolling the airport as part of the "Sentinelle" operation.

Last month, Egyptian Abdullah Reda al-Hamahmy, 29, was shot and seriously wounded near the Louvre museum when he launched himself at a group of soldiers, crying out "Allahu Akbar" (God is greatest).

(Reporting by Gus Trompiz, Emmanuel Jarry, John Irish, Brian Love, Bate Felix, Simon Carraud; editing by Richard Balmforth and Adrian Croft)


ALSO IN WORLD NEWS

North Korea's Kim Jong Un says engine test is 'new birth' of rocket industry
Tillerson ends China trip with warm words from President Xi

-----

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Europe

Paris airport attacker previously suspected of ‘Islamist radicalism’

By James McAuley March 18 at 6:03 PM
PARIS — A man previously known to French anti-terror authorities was fatally shot early Saturday at Orly Airport after struggling to steal a soldier’s gun and earlier assaulting a police officer at a traffic stop in a northeastern Paris suburb, the Paris prosecutor said.

The suspect, whom authorities identified as the French-born Ziyed Ben Belgacem, 39, told the officers he attacked in Orly Airport that he wanted to die “in the name of Allah” and that “whatever happens, there will be deaths,” according to François Molins, the prosecutor.

Just before 8:30 a.m. Saturday, Ben Belgacem approached three officers on patrol in Orly’s South Terminal and took one of them, a woman, hostage. He held a gun to her head and, contrary to earlier reports, managed to wrest her assault rifle away from her.

Molins said the assailant intended to open fire on the crowd of travelers.

Earlier Saturday morning, Ben Belgacem shot and lightly wounded a police officer at a traffic stop and then hijacked a woman’s car at gunpoint in another nearby suburb, the Paris prosecutor confirmed. He continued to Orly, southeast of Paris, where he grabbed the assault rifle from a security officer on duty. The stolen car was recovered at the airport, French authorities said.

French President François Hollande said authorities would investigate whether the attacker “had a terrorist plot behind him,” but the Paris prosecutors’ office had already announced that its anti-terrorism section had taken over the investigation.

Molins confirmed to reporters Saturday afternoon that Ben Belgacem, who was previously known to authorities in several drug and robbery cases, had been flagged on the government’s radar for “Islamist radicalism” in the past after an examination during a prison stint.

In November 2015, Molins said, following the deadly Islamic State-orchestrated attacks on Paris, Ben Belgacem’s name had been among those whose homes French authorities searched in connection with an investigation into radicalized networks.

The searches — authorized under France’s official “state of emergency,” passed after the Paris attacks — have been frequently criticized as violating the civil liberties of those searched and detained, and rights advocates have pushed the government to define “Islamist radicalism” more clearly.

The man’s father, brother and cousin had also been detained, Molins said.

The other two soldiers on duty at Orly fired a total of eight rounds at Ben Belgacem. No other injuries were reported.

[Europe may face a grim future with terrorism as a fact of life]

Witnesses at the airport described rapid gunfire in a bustling terminal full of weekend travelers.

“We had queued up to check in for the Tel Aviv flight when we heard three or four shots nearby,” one traveler, Franck Lecam, told Agence France-Presse.

“The soldiers took aim at the man, who in turn pointed the gun he had seized at the two soldiers,” another witness, identified only as Dominique, said on France’s BFM television.

The officers who were attacked belonged to Operation Sentinel, Molins said, an elite squadron of French security forces established in 2015 to combat terrorism.

Operation Sentinel, created after the attack on the satirical Charlie Hebdo magazine in January 2015, includes nearly 10,000 soldiers, about half of whom patrol in the Paris region, mostly at tourist sites and commuter hubs.

About 3,000 passengers were evacuated from the South Terminal, and passengers in Orly’s West Terminal were confined there, Pierre-Henry Brandet, a spokesman for France’s Interior Ministry, said Saturday morning.

Shortly after noon, a police search of the airport ended and passengers from 13 flights stranded on the airfield were able to disembark, authorities said. Flights resumed.

The Saturday attack mirrored a shooting Feb. 3, when an Egyptian man attacked Operation Sentinel soldiers outside the Louvre museum and was then seriously wounded.

[‘Terrorist in nature’: Knife attacker shot outside Louvre in Paris]

France has been under an official state of emergency since November 2015, when a cell of Islamic State militants carried out attacks on a concert hall, a stadium and a number of cafes across Paris. One hundred thirty people were killed.

Hollande’s Socialist government has struggled to stave off a steady stream of attacks that have continued despite heightened security precautions, including the launch of Operation Sentinel and home seizures that critics say are ineffective and have infringed on civil liberties in the process.

For instance, despite the imposition of the official state of emergency, in July, a lone driver, allegedly inspired by the Islamic State, plowed through crowds gathered to celebrate a national holiday in the seaside city of Nice, killing 86.

A number of smaller-scale attacks have taken place since, including the July slaying of an 85-year-old village priest, when two attackers backing the Islamic State — one of whom had been on a government watch list — slit the priest’s throat in the middle of a Mass.

The country is on edge heading into rounds of a presidential election in late April and early May, in which issues of national security and immigration have been central talking points for candidates across the political spectrum. Hollande, whose historic unpopularity prevented him from standing for reelection, has been constantly criticized for perceived incompetence on security issues.

Marine Le Pen, the anti-immigrant leader of France’s far-right National Front who is leading the polls in advance of the first round of the presidential vote, wasted no time in blaming Saturday’s incident on the incumbent administration.

“France [is] overwhelmed by violence, the consequence of the laxity of successive governments,” she said on Twitter. “But there is the courage of our soldiers!”

By contrast, Le Pen’s leading opponent for the presidency, Emmanuel Macron, a popular centrist candidate, gave a speech Saturday in Paris on the issue of defense, praising in his remarks the “calm, control and professionalism” of the officers at Orly.

Hollande, in a statement, reiterated France’s commitment “to act without respite to fight terrorism, defend our compatriots’ security and ensure the protection of the territory.”

Read more:

French politician promises refuge for U.S. scientists in age of Trump

As France’s far-right National Front rises, memory of its past fades

Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world

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China said to plan joint production of ballistic missiles with Pakistan

Saibal Dasgupta | TNN | Updated: Mar 17, 2017, 11.00 PM IST

BEIJING: Chinese government has given the green signal to its military's program to jointly produce ballistic, cruise and anti-aircraft missiles along with Pakistan, the Global Times, which is run by the Communist Party, said in a report. The paper also cited a former officer of the People Liberation Army's Rocket Force as confirming the report.

Talking to Global Times, Song Zhongping, a former officer of the PLA Second Artillery Corps (which has now been renamed as PLA Rocket Force), said that joint production with Pakistan will not only cover missiles but also extend to other weapons. One proposal is the "mass production of FC-1 Xiaolong, a lightweight and multi-role combat aircraft developed jointly by the two countries".

But the Chinese foreign ministry spoke in a different voice when asked on Friday if the issue was discussed during the recent visit of Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, Qamar Javed Bajwa.

"The Chinese military released information on meetings between the Pakistan Chief of Army Staff with his [Chinese] counterpart. From the news release we didn't see anything on an agreement on ballistic missiles," ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said. "What I can tell you is China and Pakistan maintain normal defence exchanges and relevant cooperation".

The report about joint missile production came less than a month after China criticised India's development of ballistic missiles. It also questioned the fourth test of Agni V as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions. By joining Pakistan in building missiles, China may seem to be encouraging violation of UN resolutions, as it saw it.

In today's briefing, Chinese foreign ministry maintained there is no change in its view, and it applies to all countries in South Asia.

"Generally speaking, all UN members have obligations and responsibility to observe UN resolutions. Our position on the strategic balance in South Asia is consistent," Hua said.
Earlier, the Chiese foreign ministry said then that the "UN Security Council has explicit regulations on whether India can develop ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. China always maintains that preserving the strategic balance and stability in South Asia is conducive to peace and prosperity of regional countries and beyond."

During his visit last Thursday, Pakistan's army chief was received not just by military heads but by Zhang Gaoli, a member of the Communist Party's Politburo Standing Committee member, who is regarded as the seventh ranked leader in China. Bajwa also met Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission General Fan Changlong, General Fang Fenghui, chief of the Joint Staff Department, and Army Commander General Li Zuocheng.
 

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North Korea tests newly developed high-thrust rocket engine

By ERIC TALMADGE
1 hour ago

TOKYO (AP) — North Korea has conducted a ground test of a new type of high-thrust rocket engine that leader Kim Jong Un is calling a revolutionary breakthrough for the country's space program.

Kim attended the test at the Sohae launch site, according to a report Sunday by the Korean Central News Agency, which said the test was intended to confirm the "new type" engine's thrust power and gauge the reliability of its control system and structural safety.

The KCNA report said Kim called the test "a great event of historic significance" for the country's indigenous rocket industry.

He also said the "whole world will soon witness what eventful significance the great victory won today carries" and claimed the test marks what will be known as the "March 18 revolution" in the development of the country's rocket industry.

The report indicated the engine is to be used for North Korea's space and satellite-launching program.

North Korea is banned by the United Nations from conducting long-range missile tests, but it claims its satellite program is for peaceful use, a claim many in the U.S. and elsewhere believe is questionable.

North Korean officials have said that under a five-year plan they intend to launch more Earth observation satellites and what would be the country's first geostationary communications satellite — which would be a major technological advance.

Getting that kind of satellite into place would likely require a more powerful engine than its previous ones. The North also claims it is trying to build a viable space program that would include a moon launch within the next 10 years.

The test was conducted as U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is in China on a swing through Asia that has been closely focused on concerns over how to deal with Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

It's hard to know whether this test was deliberately timed to coincide with Tillerson's visit, but Pyongyang has been highly critical of ongoing U.S.-South Korea wargames just south of the Demilitarized Zone and often conducts some sort of high-profile operation of its own in protest.

Earlier this month, it fired off four ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, reportedly reaching within 200 kilometers (120 miles) of Japan's shoreline.

Japan, which was Tillerson's first stop before traveling to South Korea and China, hosts tens of thousands of U.S. troops.

While building ever better long-range missiles and smaller nuclear warheads to pair with them, North Korea has marked a number of successes in its space program.

It launched its latest satellite — the Kwangmyongsong 4, or Brilliant Star 4 — into orbit on Feb. 7 last year, just one month after conducting what it claims was its first hydrogen-bomb test.

It put its first satellite in orbit in 2012, a feat few other countries have achieved. Rival South Korea, for example, has yet to do so.
 

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"Here's how a preemptive strike on North Korea would go down"
Started by Safecastle‎, 03-17-2017 07:31 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...trike-on-North-Korea-would-go-down-quot/page2

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ASIA PACIFIC

The Risks of Pre-emptive Strikes Against North Korea

The Interpreter
By MAX FISHER
MARCH 18, 2017

A declaration by Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson that the United States would consider pre-emptive military action against North Korea raises a question that has dogged American military planners for 20 years: How could this be made to work?

The United States has long threatened force. The sincerity of such threats has always been ambiguous, as they are often meant less to prepare for war than to act as a deterrent to North Korea and a reassurance of the commitment by the United States to South Korea.

But there is a reason that, even as North Korea’s weapons programs have passed red line after red line, the United States has never followed through.

Almost any plan would bring a high risk of unintended escalation to all-out war, analysts believe. It would place millions of South Korean and Japanese civilians in the cross hairs of North Korean weapons with few guaranteed benefits.


RELATED COVERAGE

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MARCH 15, 2017


That officials would even raise a pre-emptive attack shows the growing severity of the crisis, but the problems associated with any such plan demonstrate why that crisis has remained unsolved for two decades.

Three Unappealing Choices

A pre-emptive attack can generally mean one of three things. Mr. Tillerson, in keeping with past American statements, did not clarify which of those options were on the table but ruled none of them out.

Here is a brief guide to each:

1. A Single Strike to Halt a Missile Launch

How it would work: Mike Mullen, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in September at the Council on Foreign Relations that such an attack would be more “self-defense” than pre-emption.

If North Korea appears poised to launch a nuclear-armed missile, he said, American strikes could “take out launch capabilities on the launchpad or take them out once they’re launched.”

The challenge: It may not be so easy as hitting launchpads out in the open. In wartime, North Korea would probably use mobile launchers, hidden around the country in locations such as tunnels. Striking every launcher before it could be used would be difficult.

The risk: This would almost certainly be too late to prevent all nuclear missiles from getting off the ground and, given that missile defense is no guarantee, through to their targets.

2. A Set of Strikes to Devastate the Arsenal

How it would work: Striking nuclear and missile facilities would delay the programs and pressure Pyongyang to surrender them. Cyberattacks, launched alongside or instead of physical attacks, could sabotage the programs and disrupt the military command.

The challenge: Because North Korea’s program is indigenous rather than imported from abroad, the country has the know-how to replace destroyed facilities, making setbacks temporary. It would be difficult to strike existing missiles hidden around the country, most likely leaving much of the threat in place.

The risk: Even a limited attack would probably prompt retaliation. An attack broad enough to seriously degrade the program could provoke North Korean fears of an invasion or an assassination attempt, potentially leading to all-out war.

3. A War Launched on American Terms

How it would work: The United States would initiate a war to destroy the North Korean government outright, much as in Iraq in 2003.

The challenge: North Korea’s war plans are thought to call for extensive nuclear strikes to halt any invasion.

The risk: North Korea would almost certainly succeed in launching some nuclear and chemical weapons, potentially killing millions.

Any plan faces a common set of problems that are both essential to overcome and, so far, have proved insurmountable.

The Retaliation Problem

For all of the United States’ military superiority, North Korea has one significant advantage: its willingness to accept risk.

This allows the country to retaliate against any limited strikes by imposing costs that are disproportionately difficult for its adversaries to bear.

North Korea can retaliate, for instance, by launching cyberattacks, as it is suspected to have done in 2013 against South Korea’s banking system and in 2014 against Sony Pictures.

It can stir up the risk of conflict, as it did with provocations in 2013. This benefits North Korea’s leadership, rallying citizens around the state narrative of a glorious struggle. American, South Korean and Japanese civilians are less willing to accept the looming threat of war.

Mark Fitzpatrick, a scholar at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote on the think tank’s website that strike plans could face heavy opposition from South Korean and Japanese leaders, whose citizens “would bear the brunt of the retaliation.” That opposition could limit American military options.

The country has also shown willingness to use violence that falls just under the threshold for war, for example shelling a South Korean island and sinking a South Korean ship, both in 2010.

Many analysts believe that the recent assassination of Kim Jong-un’s half brother, by VX nerve agent in the Kuala Lumpur international airport, was intended, in part, as a demonstration of North Korea’s willingness to use chemical weapons abroad and in civilian areas.

Any limited American attack plan would have to assume such retaliation — a potentially high cost to pay for strikes that would probably impose only temporary delays on the country’s nuclear development.

The Escalation Problem

North Korea knows it would probably lose any war. Should one occur, its plans call for a full-scale, last-ditch retaliation to stop the Americans in their tracks.

This strategy, borne of desperation, creates a risk that has long chastened American war planners: that North Korea would perceive even a limited strike as the start of a war and respond with its full arsenal.

Jeffrey Lewis, a North Korea expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, recalled a 1969 episode in which North Korea shot down a United States Navy plane, killing 31.

The Nixon administration, he said, never retaliated because it could find no options that were “tough enough to punish the North Koreans, but not so tough that the North Koreans will think it’s a general attack,” setting off an all-out war.

That has been the problem ever since, Mr. Lewis said: “News flash, these Venn diagrams do not overlap.”

As North Korea’s nuclear capability has grown, the distance between a single attack and all-out war has shortened. Paradoxically, the heightened fear of escalation also makes it likelier.

“If there were ever a conflict, Pyongyang would have nowhere else to go but up the escalation ladder after artillery except to its nuclear weapons,” Victor Cha, who served as the Asian affairs director on George W. Bush’s National Security Council, wrote in a September column in a South Korean newspaper.

That threat goes both ways, Mr. Cha wrote, because it “compels the United States to pre-emptively attack the nuclear forces at the first sign of conflict.”

A full war, entered deliberately or accidentally, would risk terrible costs.

Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti told a congressional committee in 2016, when he was commander of United States forces in South Korea, that war with North Korea “would be more akin to the Korean War and World War II — very complex, probably high casualty.”

Analysts doubt that the United States could reproduce the rapid military victory it achieved against Iraq in 2003. In the event of war, North Korean plans are thought to call for nuclear attacks against major ports and air bases in South Korea and Japan, halting any American invasion before it could fully begin.

In the meantime, nuclear and chemical strikes against major population centers would be intended to shock the world into capitulating. Missile defense would be of limited use against short-range rockets and of no use against North Korea’s hundreds of artillery pieces, many of which target Seoul, the South Korean capital.

The Strategy Problem

Potentially the hardest question of all is whether such plans would achieve American strategic aims.

Military strikes may be an imperfect tool, analysts say, for solving what is essentially a political problem: the leadership’s belief that it requires an advanced nuclear program to survive.

Strikes short of war would risk deepening, rather than altering, this calculus. Strikes that led to war would risk exactly the nuclear exchange they are meant to forestall.

Yet the United States has long maintained attack plans, illustrating the growing urgency of the North Korean crisis as well as how difficult it has become to solve.

“It’s a bad strategic idea, but you can understand why military planners would gravitate toward it,” Mr. Lewis said, calling the plans “the best of a bad lot.”

A version of this article appears in print on March 19, 2017, on Page A10 of the New York edition with the headline: Multiple Options for Striking North Korea, All Highly Risky.
 

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Air Force Mulls Low-Cost Fighter Experiment
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...r-Experiment/page2&highlight=low+cost+fighter

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https://theaviationist.com/2017/03/20/are-low-cost-coin-air-forces-the-future-of-tactical-air-power/

Are Low-Cost “COIN” Air Forces the Future of Tactical Air Power?

Mar 20 2017 - 2 Comments
By Tom Demerly

For Nations Without Big Defense Budgets, Small Tactical Air Forces are the Trend.
Small, inexpensive, easy to operate combat aircraft with precision strike capability and long loiter times to provide close air support.

Versatile, scalable rotary wing assets that do double duty as gunships and utility/rescue helicopters.

Aircraft that can be disbursed to unimproved airfields and operated from roadways or even fields while being concealed on the ground.

In the era of the multi-billion dollar Gen 5+ superfighter and hundred-million dollar stealth bombers, is the low-cost counterinsurgency or “COIN” air force the next big defense trend? Many aircraft and systems manufacturers, along with their nation-clients, are betting “yes”.

As countries like Iraq and Afghanistan emerge from the long Global War on Terror and develop their own indigenous air forces the trend for local area defense and simple tactical air solutions is growing quickly. At the same time, strategic air combat capabilities, such as long-range heavy bombing, low observable long-range precision strike and long-range intelligence gathering have fallen to nations with much larger economies like the United States, Russia, England, France and China.

The emerging industry in light, inexpensive, adaptable, scalable and integrated tactical air arsenals is booming, while massively expensive projects like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter are under constant criticism and scrutiny from budget concerns.

Noted strategist, author and think-tank contributor Thomas PM Barnett, formerly a member of the Center for Naval Analyses and author of “The Pentagon’s New Map” opined, “a Leviathan force, used in a Leviathan manner, will rarely work.” Barnett was writing about the Global War on Terror and the use of global force to oppose and defeat a local insurgency. It is often like trying to remove a small tumor with a chainsaw.

Another key aspect of the growing trend in light tactical air power is that it empowers nation states with their own air force. The value of this is as much socio-psychological as it is tactical. Nations can fight their own wars, their own way, without the imposing presence of an aircraft carrier battle group off their coast.

Perhaps one of the best examples of a light, inexpensive counterinsurgency air force is Afghanistan. The Afghan Air Force operates two strike platforms, the Embraer A-29 Super Tucano, a Pratt & Whitney PT6A-68C turboprop powered, low wing, two-seat attack airplane and the MD Helicopters MD-530F Cayuse Warrior light utility/attack helicopter powered by Rolls Royce’s 650 shp 250-C30 engine. The two aircraft are well suited for ease of training and close air support.

Some reports suggest the aircraft may be a little “too” effective and easy to use. A February 8, 2017 story by Shawn Snow and Andrew DeGrandpre published in Military Times reports that, “the loss of innocent life caused by Afghan-initiated airstrikes doubled to 252 [in 2016], according to the U.N.” from the same period in the prior 2015 year. The report went on to say, “Afghanistan’s primary attack pilots are firing their weapons during four of every 10 combat missions, a rate more than three times greater than that of their U.S. Air Force counterparts.”

As a partial response to the frequency of airstrikes by Afghan assets and the exposure of civilians to collateral damage American officials working with the Afghan Air Force have begun to accelerate training for indigenous Afghan forward air controllers.

Regardless of the potential for reduced discretion when prosecuting ground targets (or, perhaps, because of it…) the demand for inexpensive counterinsurgency air support aircraft is booming. It has created heated contract competitions between manufacturers like Embraer and Beechcraft and introduced new brands into the marketplace like IOMAX and their highly capable, purpose-built Archangel counter-insurgency, close air support and precision strike aircraft.

The IOMAX Archangel is completely re-engineered from a basic agricultural (crop dusting) aircraft configuration. Instead of carrying pesticides or fertilizer it carries a full complement of precision guided air-to-ground weapons and highly effective countermeasures with a two-person crew. While the direct comparison is not at all fair, a country can purchase almost 20 of the IOMAX Archangel tactical aircraft with maintenance spares for the cost of one F-35A joint strike fighter. That is the size of the entire proposed acquisition of Embraer A-29 Super Tucanos for the Afghan Air Force. The IOMAX Archangel is already in service with the Royal Jordanian Air Force in the border patrol and interdiction role.

The conversation about low-cost, “bush-plane” style counter insurgency aircraft fitted with sophisticated data sharing, intelligence collecting and precision targeting capability is a fascinating one. For many countries that don’t need a strategic, long range, stealth air asset and can’t afford one, but do have to manage a persistent guerilla or insurgent threat, this new generation of “smart” light attack aircraft may just be the “Gen 5.25” combat aircraft of the next decade and beyond.
 

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http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a...ul-about-war-talk-with-russia/article/2617977

Army chief of staff warns: Be careful about 'war' talk with Russia

By Joel Gehrke (@Joelmentum) • 3/21/17 11:48 AM

Public officials should be careful about accusing Russia of committing an "act of war" against the United States, according to the nation's top Army general.

"Just this morning on the news, I forget who it was, but there was someone who said that the Russian efforts in the U.S. election was an 'act of war,' Army Chief of Staff Mark Milley said during New America's Future of War Conference Tuesday morning. "That's pretty strong language, and, if it's an act of war, then you've got to start thinking of your response to that sort of thing. So, I would caution people about use of the term 'war' and make sure that we're clear-eyed about what war is and what it isn't."

Milley didn't mention any names, but he made the comments one day after House Permanent Select Committee Intelligence hearing on Russia's cyberattacks against the Democratic party during the 2016 election cycle. Some Democratic panelists equated that interference with an act of war. Milley, who had defined war moments earlier as "imposing your political will on a human opponent through the use of organized violence," emphasized that not all adversarial actions are tantamount to war.

House Democrats leveled the charge Monday, saying that the Russian cyberattacks fit the definition of "hybrid warfare," a set of Russian tactics that involves cyberattacks and extensive propaganda designed to undermine support for another government or create confusion about Russian activities.

"I actually think that their engagement was an act of war, an act of hybrid warfare, and I think that's why the American people should be concerned about it," Rep. Jackie Speier, D-Calif., said during the hearing.

Milley displayed caution about using rhetoric that might imply the need for a more forceful U.S. response than policymakers want to endorse.

"There are a lot of acts that are aggressive, assertive, subversive, working against your interests, that may not rise to the level of war, and it's not a crystal clear line," he said. "It's something that you have to apply reasoned judgement to. It's not crisp, it's not like crossing a white line on a highway, changing lanes sort of thing. There are sometimes where it is — the attack on Pearl Harbor, for example; the invasion of Poland — but, there are other times where it's a little bit more murky and we have to be careful about it."
 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-idUSKBN16T07M

World News | Wed Mar 22, 2017 | 2:38am EDT

North Korea missile test fails, U.S. and South say, as tensions simmer

By Ju-min Park | SEOUL

A North Korean missile appeared to have exploded on Wednesday just after it was launched, the U.S. and South Korean militaries said after detecting the latest in a series of weapons tests by the nuclear-armed state that have alarmed the region.

The launch attempt was made from near the city of Wonsan, on North Korea's east coast, the same place from where it launched several intermediate-range missiles last year, all but one of which failed.

"U.S. Pacific Command detected what we assess was a failed North Korean missile launch attempt ... in the vicinity of Kalma," Commander Dave Benham, a spokesman for U.S. Pacific Command, said in a statement, referring to an air field in Wonsan.

"A missile appears to have exploded within seconds of launch," Benham said, adding that work was being carried out on a more detailed assessment.

A South Korean military official told Reuters the missile appeared to have exploded just after it was launched.

"It may have exploded right after it took off from a launch pad," said military official, who declined to be identified.

It was not clear what type of missile it was. The South Korean defense ministry said it was conducting analysis to determine further details.

The increasing frequency of the missile tests has fueled a growing sense of urgency over how to respond to the isolated, unpredictable state.

North Korea launched four ballistic missiles from near its west coast on March 6 and this week conducted a rocket engine test that its leader, Kim Jong Un, said opened "a new birth" of its rocket industry.

The latest launch came as the U.S. envoy for North Korea policy, Joseph Yun, met his South Korean counterpart in Seoul to discuss a response to the North's weapons programs.

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Exclusive: North Korea has no fear of U.S. sanctions move, will pursue nuclear arms - envoy

Just last week U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited Japan, South Korea and China and how to handle North Korea was a major issue in his talks.

Speaking in Seoul on Friday, Tillerson said a policy of strategic patience with North Korea had ended and all options, including a military one, were on the table if North Korea threatened South Korean or U.S. forces.

North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests and a series of missile launches since the beginning of last year in defiance of U.N. resolutions. It is believed to be working to develop nuclear-tipped missiles that can reach the United States.

BROAD REVIEW

U.S. President Donald Trump rebuked Kim on Sunday, saying the North Korean leader was "acting very, very badly".

A senior U.S. official in Washington told Reuters on Monday that the Trump administration was considering sweeping sanctions as part of a broad review of measures to counter North Korea's nuclear and missile threat.

The United States is also deploying an advanced missile- defense system in South Korea. But China objects to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, saying its powerful radar can penetrate deep into its territory, undermining its security.

Undaunted by the possibility of even tougher sanctions aimed at cutting North Korea off from the global financial system, a North Korean diplomat said his government would pursue an "acceleration" of its nuclear and missile programs.

This includes developing a "pre-emptive first strike capability" and an inter-continental ballistic missile, said Choe Myong Nam, deputy ambassador at the DPRK (North Korean) mission to the United Nations in Geneva.

Japan's Nikkei index and South Korean stocks extended losses slightly after news of a North Korean launch broke but trade was steady overall.

(Reporting by Idrees Ali in WASHINGTON, Kaori Kaneko and Chris Gallagher in TOKYO, Jiwon Choi and Christine Kim in SEOUL; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-sanctions-idUSKBN16S2KY

World News | Wed Mar 22, 2017 | 1:42am EDT

Exclusive: North Korea has no fear of U.S. sanctions move, will pursue nuclear arms - envoy

By Stephanie Nebehay | GENEVA

Video

North Korea has nothing to fear from any U.S. move to broaden sanctions aimed at cutting it off from the global financial system and will pursue "acceleration" of its nuclear and missile programs, a North Korean envoy told Reuters on Tuesday.

This includes developing a "pre-emptive first strike capability" and an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), said Choe Myong Nam, deputy ambassador at the North Korean mission to the United Nations in Geneva.

Reuters, quoting a senior U.S. official in Washington, reported on Monday that the Trump administration is considering sweeping sanctions as part of a broad review of measures to counter North Korea's nuclear and missile threat. (For Monday's story, click reut.rs/2n9HZ5a)

"I think this is stemming from the visit by the Secretary of State (Rex Tillerson) to Japan, South Korea and China...We of course are not afraid of any act like that," Choe told Reuters.

"Even prohibition of the international transactions system, the global financial system, this kind of thing is part of their system that will not frighten us or make any difference."

He called existing sanctions "heinous and inhumane".

North Korea has been under sanctions for "half a century" but the communist state survives by placing an emphasis on juche or "self-sufficiency", he said. His country wants a forum set up to examine the "legality and legitimacy of the sanctions regime".

He denounced joint annual military exercises currently being carried out by the United States and South Korea on the divided peninsula and criticized remarks by Tillerson during his talks with regional allies last week.

"All he was talking about is for the United States to take military actions on DPRK," Choe said, using the acronym for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
North Korea rejects claims by Washington and Seoul that the military drills are defensive. They involve strategic nuclear bombers and a nuclear submarine, Columbus, that recently entered South Korean ports, he said.

Also In World News
North Korea missile test fails, U.S. and South say, as tensions simmer
Russia underplayed losses in recapture of Syria's Palmyra

"In the light of such huge military forces involved in the joint military exercises, we have no other choice but to continue with our full acceleration of the nuclear programs and missile programs. It is because of these hostile activities on the part of the United States and South Korea."

PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE CAPABILITY

"We strengthen our national defense capability as well as pre-emptive strike capabilities with nuclear forces as a centerpiece," Choe said.

Asked to comment on Choe's remarks, a U.S. State Department spokeswoman, Anna Richey-Allen, called on North Korea "to refrain from provocative actions and inflammatory rhetoric...and to make the strategic choice to fulfill its international obligations and commitments and return to serious talks.”

Choe declined to give technical details of North Korea's latest rocket engine test on Sunday - seen as a possible prelude to a partial ICBM flight - calling it a great historical event that would lead to "fruitful outcomes".

"I can tell you for sure that the inter-continental ballistic rockets of the DPRK will be launched at any time and at any place as decided by our Supreme Leadership," Choe said, recalling leader Kim Jong Un's pledge in a New Year's address.

Analysts say North Korea has likely mastered the technology to power the different stages of an ICBM and may show it off soon, but is likely still a long way from being able to hit the mainland United States.

"The United States has been talking about launching pre-emptive strikes at North Korea," Choe said. "And we have been prepared to deter, to counter-attack such attacks on the part of the United States.

"We would utilize every possible means in our hands and the inter-continental ballistic rocket is one of them."

(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; additional reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington; editing by Ralph Boulton and Jonathan Oatis)
 

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http://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-...lp-battle-taliban-islamic-state/28383507.html

Afghanistan

Afghanistan Backs U.S. Call For More Troops To Help Battle Taliban

3 hours ago
RFE/RL

Afghanistan wants the United States to send more forces to help battle the Taliban and the Islamic State extremist group, the country's top diplomat has said.

Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani on March 21 welcomed a recent call by U.S. General John Nicholson, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, for a few thousand more troops from the United States or other coalition partners to help break the stalemate in the war-torn country.

The Trump administration has not yet said if it will send more forces in response to Nicholson's comments. Some 8,400 U.S. troops are currently deployed in Afghanistan, performing counterterrorism operations against insurgents and training the Afghan National Army. The war is in its 16th year.

Citing a deadly attack this month on a military hospital in Kabul, Rabbani said Afghanistan needed U.S. help in addressing "military shortfalls," through increased training, ground and air capabilities, and reconnaissance and intelligence support.

"We stand confident that the new U.S. administration under President Trump will remain strategically engaged and continue its support," Rabbani said at the Atlantic Council conference ahead of a gathering in Washington of the U.S.-led coalition against IS.

He described Nicholson's call as "an appropriate decision considering the prevailing security challenges still facing us."

In a sign of how major powers are vying for influence in the region, Rabbani said Russia was planning a 12-country conference on Afghanistan. The former Soviet Union engaged in a disastrous decade-long war in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Rabbani said the United States had been invited but didn't know if it would attend. The State Department said it hadn't yet decided on its participation.

Rabbani said the discussions would follow up on six-country talks held in mid-February involving China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, and Iran. He said he did not think the Taliban would be invited.

In congressional testimony last month, Nicholson said Russia had been publicly legitimizing the Taliban and seeking to undermine the United States and NATO in Afghanistan.

Rabbani said Russia and Iran had both told Kabul they have been in contact with the Taliban to encourage a return to the negotiating table, but deny providing the Taliban material support.

With reporting by AP and Radio Pakistan
 

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https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/time-north-korea/

Out of time in North Korea

20 Mar 2017|Richard N. Haass

There is a growing consensus that the first genuine crisis of Donald Trump’s presidency could involve North Korea and, more specifically, its ability to place a nuclear warhead on one or more ballistic missiles possessing sufficient range and accuracy to reach the continental United States. A crisis could stem from other factors as well: a large increase in the number of nuclear warheads that North Korea produces, evidence that it is selling nuclear materials to terrorist groups, or some use of its conventional military forces against South Korea or US forces stationed there.

There is no time to lose: any of these developments could occur in a matter of months or at most years. Strategic patience, the approach toward North Korea that has characterised successive US administrations since the early 1990s, has run its course.

One option would be simply to accept as inevitable continued increases in the quantity and quality of North Korea’s nuclear and missile inventories. The US, South Korea, and Japan would fall back on a combination of missile defence and deterrence.

The problem is that missile defence is imperfect, and deterrence is uncertain. The only certainty is that the failure of either would result in unimaginable costs. In these circumstances, Japan and South Korea might reconsider whether they, too, require nuclear weapons, raising the risk of a new and potentially destabilising arms race in the region.

A second set of options would employ military force, either against a gathering North Korean threat or one judged to be imminent. One problem with this approach is uncertainty as to whether military strikes could destroy all of the North’s missiles and warheads. But even if they could, North Korea would probably retaliate with conventional military forces against South Korea. Given that Seoul and US troops stationed in South Korea are well within range of thousands of artillery pieces, the toll in lives and physical damage would be immense. The new South Korean government (which will take office in two months) is sure to resist any action that could trigger such a scenario.

Some therefore opt for regime change, hoping that a different North Korean leadership might prove to be more reasonable. It probably would; but, given how closed North Korea is, bringing about such an outcome remains more wish than serious policy.

This brings us to diplomacy. The US could offer (following close consultations with the governments in South Korea and Japan, and ideally against the backdrop of additional United Nations resolutions and economic sanctions) direct negotiations with North Korea. Once talks commenced, the US side could advance a deal: North Korea would have to agree to freeze its nuclear and missile capabilities, which would require cessation of all testing of both warheads and missiles, along with access to international inspectors to verify compliance. The North would also have to commit not to sell any nuclear materials to any other country or organisation.

In exchange, the US and its partners would offer, besides direct talks, the easing of sanctions. The US and others could also agree to sign—more than 60 years after the end of the Korean War—a peace agreement with the North.

North Korea (in some ways like Iran) could keep its nuclear option but be barred from translating it into a reality. Concerns over North Korea’s many human-rights violations would not be pressed at this time, although the country’s leaders would understand that there could be no normalisation of relations (or end of sanctions) so long as repression remained the norm. Full normalisation of ties would also require North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons program.

At the same time, the US should limit how far it is willing to go. There can be no end to regular US-South Korean military exercises, which are a necessary component of deterrence and potential defence, given the military threat posed by the North. For the same reason, any limits on US forces in the country or region would be unacceptable. And any negotiation must take place within a fixed time period, lest North Korea use that time to create new military facts.

Could such an approach succeed? The short answer is ‘maybe.’ China’s stance would likely prove critical. Chinese leaders have no love for Kim Jong-un’s regime or its nuclear weapons, but it dislikes even more the prospect of North Korea’s collapse and the unification of the Korean Peninsula with Seoul as the capital.

The question is whether China (the conduit by which goods enter and leave North Korea) could be persuaded to use its considerable influence with its neighbor. The US should offer some reassurances that it would not exploit Korea’s reunification for strategic advantage, while warning China of the dangers North Korea’s current path poses to its own interests. Continued conversations with China about how best to respond to possible scenarios on the peninsula clearly make sense.

Again, there is no guarantee that diplomacy would succeed. But it might. And even if it failed, demonstrating that a good-faith effort had been made would make it less difficult to contemplate, carry out, and subsequently explain to domestic and international audiences why an alternative policy, one that included the use of military force, was embraced.

Author
Richard N. Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and the author, most recently, of A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order. This article is presented in partnership with Project Syndicate © 2017. Image courtesy of Pixabay user ekk814.
 

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/19/world/africa/trump-special-forces-navy-seals.html?_r=0

Africa
Using Special Forces Against Terrorism, Trump Seeks to Avoid Big Ground Wars

By ERIC SCHMITT
MARCH 19, 2017
C
Photo

Chadian soldiers carrying out a training operation led by a United States Special Forces trainer, right, in N’Djamena last week as part of an annual exercise.
Credit

Bryan Denton for The New York Times

MARA, Chad — From Yemen to Syria to here in Central Africa, the Trump administration is relying on Special Operations forces to intensify its promised fight against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups as senior officials embrace an Obama-era strategy to minimize the American military’s footprint overseas.

In Africa, President Trump is expected to soon approve a Pentagon proposal to remove constraints on Special Operations airstrikes and raids in parts of Somalia to target suspected militants with the Shabab, an extremist group linked to Al Qaeda. Critics say that the change — in one of the few rejections of President Barack Obama’s guidelines for the elite forces — would bypass rules that seek to prevent civilian deaths from drone attacks and commando operations.

But in their two months in office, Trump officials have shown few other signs that they want to back away from Mr. Obama’s strategy to train, equip and otherwise support indigenous armies and security forces to fight their own wars instead of having to deploy large American forces to far-flung hot spots.

“Africans are at war; we’re not,” said Col. Kelly Smith, 47, a Green Beret commander who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan and was a director of a counterterrorism exercise in Chad this month involving about 2,000 African and Western troops and trainers. “But we have a strategic interest in the success of partners.”

Mr. Trump came to office without a clearly articulated philosophy for using the military to fight terrorist groups. He had promised to be more aggressive in taking on the Islamic State — even suggesting during the presidential campaign that he had a secret plan — but had also signaled a desire to rein in the notion of the United States as the world’s peacekeeper and claimed at various points to have opposed the ground invasion of Iraq.

Now, surrounded by generals who have been at the center of a decade-long shift to rely on Special Operations forces to project power without the risks and costs of large ground wars, he is choosing to maintain the same approach but giving the Pentagon more latitude.

Photo

A Chadian soldier pretending to be a dead Boko Haram fighter in a training demonstration during the exercise in N’Djamena last week.
Credit

Bryan Denton for The New York Times

That leeway carries its own perils. Last week, the Pentagon went to unusual lengths to defend an airstrike in Syria that United States officials said killed dozens of Qaeda operatives at a meeting place — and not civilians at a mosque, as activists and local residents maintain.

It was yet another example of the mixed success Mr. Trump’s forays with special operators have had so far. An ill-fated raid in January by the Navy’s SEAL Team 6 against Qaeda fighters in Yemen marred the president’s first counterterrorism mission, five days after he became commander in chief. In Mosul, however, Special Operations advisers are the American troops closest to the fight in Iraq to oust the Islamic State from its stronghold there. That is also likely to be the case in the impending battle to reclaim Raqqa in eastern Syria.

Mr. Trump is largely relying on the policies of his two immediate predecessors, Mr. Obama and President George W. Bush, who were also great advocates of Special Operations forces. On Mr. Obama’s orders, SEAL Team 6 commandos killed Osama bin Laden in his hide-out in Pakistan in 2011.

But Mr. Trump seems to have taken that appreciation and reliance to another level. He appointed a retired Marine Corps general, Jim Mattis, as defense secretary, and a three-star Army officer, Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, as his national security adviser. Both men have extensive experience with Special Operations forces. And the National Security Council’s new senior director for counterterrorism, Christopher P. Costa, is a retired Special Forces intelligence officer.

Sharing an unusual window into the private conversations between Mr. Trump and his senior commanders, Army Gen. Tony Thomas, the head of the military’s Special Operations Command, said the president had made clear his urgent priority for counterterrorism missions conducted by the military’s elite forces during a visit to military headquarters in Tampa, Fla., last month.

“There were some pretty pointed questions about what winning looks like, and how are you going to get there,” General Thomas told a Special Operations conference outside Washington after the presidential visit.

And while the Pentagon could eventually send a few thousand more conventional troops to the fights in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, General Thomas warned that senior commanders feared that “more troops on the ground may mean you own the problem when you’re done with it.”

Photo

Flat-bottomed boats carried Chadian Special Antiterrorism Group soldiers and their American Special Forces trainers during an exercise along the shore of the Chari River last week.
Credit

Bryan Denton for The New York Times

That concern gives weight to arguments for greater reliance on special operators as the Trump administration for now eschews larger deployments of conventional troops and proposes deep cuts in foreign aid and State Department budgets.

The global reach of special operators is widening. During the peak of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, nearly 13,000 Special Operations forces were deployed on missions across the globe, but a large majority were assigned to those two countries. Now, more than half of the 8,600 elite troops overseas are posted outside the Middle East or South Asia, operating in 97 countries, according to the Special Operations Command.

Still, about one-third of the 6,000 American troops currently in Iraq and Syria are special operators, many of whom are advising local troops and militias on the front lines. About a quarter of the 8,400 American troops in Afghanistan are special operators.

In Africa, about one-third of the nearly 6,000 overall troops are Special Operations forces. The only permanent American installation on the continent is Camp Lemonnier, a sprawling base of 4,000 United States service members and civilians in Djibouti that serves as a hub for counterterrorism operations and training. The United States Air Force flies surveillance drones from small bases in Niger and Cameroon.

Elsewhere in Africa, the roles of special operators are varied, and their ranks are small, typically measured in the low dozens for specific missions. Between 200 and 300 Navy SEALs and other special operators work with African allies to hunt shadowy Shabab terrorists in Somalia. As many as 100 Special Forces soldiers help African troops pursue the notorious leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army, Joseph Kony. And Navy SEALs are training Nigerian commandos for action in the oil-rich delta.

The United States is building a $50 million drone base in Agadez, Niger, that is likely to open sometime next year to monitor Islamic State insurgents in a vast area on the southern flank of the Sahara that stretches from Senegal to Chad.

Mr. Trump’s tough talk on terrorism has been well received here in Chad, where American Special Operations and military instructors from several Western nations finished an annual three-week counterterrorism training exercise last week.

U.S. Troops and Equipment in Africa
The countries in Africa where the United States has the most troops, and the cooperative security locations, where military equipment is stored.

Cooperative
security locations
NIGER
SENEGAL
CHAD
BURKINA FASO
Agadez
Dakar
DJIBOUTI
N’Djamena
Ouagadougou
Chebelley
Niamey
SOUTH
SUDAN
GHANA
CENTRAL
AFR. REP.
CAMEROON
SOMALIA
Accra
Douala
UGANDA
Libreville
KENYA
Entebbe
Manda Bay
GABON
DEM. REP.
OF CONGO
U.S. Troops
Mombasa
4,000
400
300
200-300
50
50
40
30
30
30
Djibouti
Niger
Cameroon
Somalia
Kenya
Uganda
Chad
South Sudan
Democratic Rep. of Congo
Central African Rep.
BOTSWANA
Gaborone
Note: The U.S. Department of Defense uses cooperative security locations to store pre-positioned equipment and supplies, including tents, cots and munitions, for military emergencies. Troops include trainers and support personnel.
Sources: U.S. Africa Command; senior U.S. military officials

By The New York Times
Many African soldiers and security forces said they would welcome an even larger United States military presence to help combat myriad extremist threats. “Of course we’d like more,” said Hassan Zakari Mahamadou, a police commissioner from Niger. “U.S. forces enhance us.”

The Pentagon has allocated about $250 million over two years to help train the armies and security forces of North, Central and West African countries.

But American aid and training alone — along with occasional secret unilateral strikes — will not be enough to defeat groups like Al Qaeda, Boko Haram and the Islamic State, officials say.

“We could knock off all the ISIL and Boko Haram this afternoon,” Gen. Thomas D. Waldhauser, the leader of the military’s Africa Command, told the Senate this month, using an acronym for the Islamic State. “But by the end week, so to speak, those ranks would be filled.”

Here on the outskirts of the Chadian capital, N’Djamena, last week, four flat-bottomed boats with mounted machine guns roared down the Chari River. The boats pulled up along the riverbank, just opposite neighboring Cameroon, and disgorged rifle-toting Chadian Special Antiterrorism Group forces and their American trainers.

In a hail of gunfire, shooting blanks, they stormed the thatched huts of a suspected Boko Haram bomb maker; seized laptops, cellphones and other material inside for clues on terrorist operations; and dashed back to the river, fending off a mock ambush on the way. Piling back into their boats under covering fire, the Chadian commandos sped off in a drill that American and Chadian officers often play out for real in the nearby Lake Chad Basin area.

“Extremism is like a cancer,” said Brig. Gen. Zakaria Ngobongue, a senior Chadian officer who has trained in France and at Hurlburt Field, Fla., and was helping oversee the exercise. “We need to continue to fight it.”

A version of this article appears in print on March 21, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Military Sticks With Obama Tactics on Terror. Order
 

Housecarl

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/21/...click&contentCollection=Africa&pgtype=article

Africa

Warnings of a ‘Powder Keg’ in Libya as ISIS Regroups

By ERIC SCHMITT
MARCH 21, 2017

NDJAMENA, Chad — After B-52 bombers struck an Islamic State training camp in Libya in January, killing more than 80 militants, American officials privately gloated. On the heels of losing its coastal stronghold in Surt the month before, the Islamic State seemed to be reeling.

But Western and African counterterrorism officials now say that while the twin blows dealt a setback to the terrorist group in Libya — once feared as the Islamic State’s most lethal branch outside Iraq and Syria — its leaders are already regrouping, exploiting the chaos and political vacuum gripping the country.

Gen. Thomas D. Waldhauser, head of the Pentagon’s Africa Command, told a Senate panel this month that after their expulsion from Surt, many militants from the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, were moving to southern Libya.

“The instability in Libya and North Africa may be the most significant near-term threat to U.S. and allies’ interests on the continent,” General Waldhauser said. “Even with the success of Surt, ISIS-Libya remains a regional threat with intent to target U.S. persons and interests.”

Related Coverage

U.S. Conducts Airstrikes Against ISIS in Libya AUG. 1, 2016
In Libya, U.S. Courts Unreliable Allies to Counter ISIS JAN. 18, 2016
Pentagon Has Plan to Cripple ISIS in Libya With Air Barrage MARCH 8, 2016
U.S. Bombing in Libya Reveals Limits of Strategy Against ISIS FEB. 19, 2016


Libya remains a violent and divided nation rife with independent militias, flooded with arms and lacking legitimate governance and political unity. Tripoli, the capital, is controlled by a patchwork of armed groups that have built local fiefs and vied for power since Libya’s 2011 uprising. Running gun battles have seized Tripoli in recent days.

“Libya is descending into chaos,” said Brig. Gen. Zakaria Ngobongue), a senior Chadian officer who directed a major counterterrorism exercise here in the Chadian capital last week involving 2,000 African and Western troops and trainers. “It’s a powder keg.”

Libya’s neighbors have rushed to ward off the threat of Islamic fighters seeking safe haven within their borders or trying to recruit their young people to fill its depleted ranks.

Tunisia, which has suffered several devastating terrorist attacks in recent years, has already built a 125-mile earthen wall, which stretches about half the length of its border with Libya, in an attempt to prevent militants from infiltrating.

Since last summer, the United States has been flying unarmed surveillance drone missions over Libya from bases in Tunisia, a significant expansion of that country’s counterterrorism cooperation with the Pentagon.

Algeria announced this month that it had opened a new air base in the country’s far south to help secure its borders with Mali, Niger and Libya.

And Chad closed its borders with Libya in January, fearing potential terrorist infiltration. The country reopened one main border crossing this month under pressure from border towns suffering a dearth of commercial traffic and to allow Chadian citizens to return home from Libya.

“As long as the Libyan chaos lasts, security in the Sahel and the Sahara will always be strained,” President Idriss Déby of Chad told a regional security conference in Bamako, Mali, this month. The Sahel is a vast area on the southern flank of the Sahara that stretches from Senegal east to Chad.

American intelligence agencies offered wide-ranging estimates last year on the peak number of Islamic State fighters in Libya — mainly in Surt, but also in Benghazi and Tripoli — with some assessments topping 5,000 militants.

Perhaps several hundred of those fighters have survived and fled in various directions within the country, or even to Europe, military officials and intelligence analysts say.

“The multiple militias and fractured relationship between factions in east and west Libya exacerbate the security situation, spilling into Tunisia and Egypt and the broader Maghreb, allowing the movement of foreign fighters, enabling the flow of migrants out of Libya to Europe and elsewhere,” General Waldhauser said.

Even before President Trump took office, vowing to intensify the global fight against ISIS, the Pentagon was accelerating its counterrorism efforts here in Central Africa.

The United States is building a $50 million drone base in Agadez, Niger. When completed next year, it will allow Reaper surveillance drones to fly from hundreds of miles closer to southern Libya, to monitor Islamic State insurgents flowing south and other extremists flowing north from the Sahel region.

American Special Operations forces and the C.I.A. have been working for more than a year to identify militia fighters in Libya who the United States can trust and support as a ground force to combat ISIS fighters, as the Pentagon did last year with militias from Misrata.

“We must carefully choose where and with whom we work with to counter ISIS-Libya in order not to shift the balance between factions and risk sparking greater conflict in Libya,” General Waldhauser said.

In the meantime, American spy agencies, as well as Western and African intelligence operatives, are monitoring the movements of ISIS fighters, who officials say have been wary of gathering in large groups since the January strike by B-52s and armed Reaper drones flying from Sicily. American commanders say they could conduct more strikes if insurgents mass in large enough groups.

“We will be able to keep pressure on that ISIS network enough to keep it decentralized so that it cannot mass and to buy time for the G.N.A. to develop governance,” said Brig. Gen. Donald C. Bolduc, who oversees American Special Operations forces in Africa, using an acronym for the new Libyan unity government.

General Bolduc acknowledged in an interview, however, “None of this is going to happen fast.” He noted that the Islamic State in Libya is “looking to work gaps and seams, and doing it all over again to gain a foothold, influencing the populace.”
It is an assessment shared by independent Libya specialists.

“ISIS in Libya is down but not out, and in the meantime, all of Libya’s other problems remain, which ensures that ISIS or something a lot like it will have little problem reasserting itself when the time is right,” said Michael R. Shurkin, a senior political scientist at RAND and a former C.I.A. analyst. “Be wary of any U.S. policy that amounts to calling it a victory and walking away.”

Follow Eric Schmitt on Twitter @EricSchmittNYT.
A version of this article appears in print on March 22, 2017, on Page A4 of the New York edition with the headline: Warnings of a ‘Powder Keg’ in Libya as ISIS Regroups After Setbacks. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
 

Housecarl

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/art..._powers_path_to_the_gate_of_tears_111012.html

Soft Power’s Path to the Gate of Tears

By Sean P. Morrisroe
March 21, 2017

While international attention has been correctly focused on the North Koreans in the past few weeks, the Chinese are months away from opening a naval base at the mouth of the Red Sea.

The Djibouti government allowed the Chinese to start construction of a naval base only four miles from American Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa in 2016.* By summer of 2017, it is predicted to be fully operational as reported by General Thomas Waldhauser, commander of U.S. Africa Command. For the past decade, the United States has used Camp Lemonnier as a key launching point for military operations in Yemen and Somalia as well as anti-pirate operations in the area. France, Japan, and Saudi Arabia also have bases in the small but strategic country. *

Djibouti sits on the African side of the Bab-el-Mandeb (“Gate of Tears”), an 18-mile wide waterway between the tip of the Arabian Peninsula and Africa. A choke point between the Mediterranean Sea (via the Suez Canal) and the Indian Ocean, the route is vital to the international economy, as an estimated 4% of global oil trade passes through it.

Even the most strident isolationists in the U.S. should see the value of keeping these shipping lanes conflict free. Any disruption in the flow of commerce in the area will profoundly affect the economy of the world.

Unfortunately, the straits sit in a very contentious region. To the north, the Yemeni government has no control over its coastline. Rebels, as recently as February, attacked a Saudi ship resulting in two deaths. In the south, Somalia continues to be a haven for jihadist groups, and pirates are again using the country as a staging area to seek out targets of opportunity on unsuspecting ships. *

Adding China to the mix will only increase instability. The Chinese building and maintaining a military base near a U.S. base increases the odds of conflict in the region. Chinese sailors and airmen are known for their aggressiveness in ramming and intercepting other vessels. In the close waters and airspace off and over Djibouti, it is just a matter of time before an incident occurs. **

This expansion is a wake-up call that the Chinese are serious about projecting power. It is the first base specifically built for military purposes by the Chinese outside the western Pacific. Additionally, it has been reported that China will increase its naval infantry forces. These forces are expeditionary in nature and will help the Chinese influence events beyond its shores. For the last 15 years, commentators have debated back and forth if the Chinese have the wherewithal to establish a base so distant from its home country. Well, that debate is over. And don’t be surprised if additional military bases pop up along the periphery of the Indian Ocean or in the Persian Gulf.

The lease also shows how their new economic power can lure supposed allies away from the American orbit. The Chinese paid the Djibouti government $100 million a year for ten years for leasing rights. Billions of more dollars will be invested by the Chinese to build infrastructure in the country. The Chinese are not afraid of using their economic weight to influence countries.

Most importantly, this base is a result of a lack of leadership shown by the U.S. in the past eight years and the concept of “soft power.” The Djibouti government saw the Obama administration look the other way regarding Chinese provocations in the South China Sea and the Senkaku Islands; Russia invading Crimea and causing mischief in Ukraine; North Korea moving forward with the construction of nuclear weapons, and the U.S. withdrawing from Iraq and ignoring red lines drawn in Syria.

I am sure Djibouti was hedging its bets as the U.S. was ambiguous on what they might do regarding major foreign policy events in the past years. (And an administration that was not proud of its Western tradition or culture.) On the other hand, they see an up and coming, confident China, willing to use its power and clout to displace a non-western nation.*

The rhetoric of “soft power” touted by the Obama administration has caused allies to doubt America’s seriousness in the international arena where hard power is the norm. Soft power might work with other democracies with traditions and values that match our own. However, in cultures that are still a generation away from tribal conflicts, are quasi-dictatorships, or young democracies that live on the edge of a chaotic world, hard power will continue to influence them.

As Osama bin Laden is quoted as saying, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse.” Unfortunately, the U.S. has is seen as the weak horse in certain quarters of the world.

Chinese Interests in Africa and the India Ocean-String of Pearls

The “String of Pearls” theory posits that the Chinese are building a string of civilian and military installations starting from Hainan Island, through the Parcel Islands, ports in Sri Lanka, Myanmar; Gwadar, Pakistan and eventually ending with the naval base in Djibouti. According to the theory, the Chinese are using these installations to secure a line of communication to the oil fields of the Middle East. China imports approximately 70% of its oil from the region. So a benevolent China securing its shipping lanes makes sense, and maybe the world should not worry.

China states that its presence in the Indian Ocean and Africa is part of its rightful and peaceful expansion in the world. However, China’s actions in the South China Sea and its aggressiveness in the Japanese islands show that China’s growth is not all that peaceful. China becoming dominant in the Indian Ocean would allow it to squeeze its main rival’s supply lines in Northwest Asia, Japan. The West should cast a skeptical eye on any Chinese encroachment on the Indian Ocean and adjacent regions.

The Chinese base in Djibouti will serve as the most western and important pearl in its long string across the Indian Ocean.

Conclusion

The Chinese naval base in Djibouti is a foregone conclusion unless the Trump administration can pull off a huge deal to make the Djibouti government renege on its lease to the Chinese, which I do not foresee occurring. America and her allies have to live with a hostile base within walking distance from a key U.S. military installation and along a route of strategic importance to the world economy.

The U.S. will have to adjust tactics according to the new reality. The U.S. and her allies need to let the Chinese know right away that the antics they use in the South China Sea will not be tolerated here. Strategically, the U.S., Europe, and Japan have to become less dependent on oil from the Middle East. That means more nuclear power, more drilling in North America, and development of alternative means of energy.

The larger lesson for America is that soft power will not advance its interests when dealing with countries that have no interest in emulating the values of the West, such as Djibouti. No matter how much aid, cups of tea, or movies from Hollywood are provided, if the U.S is perceived as the weak horse, our national security interests will not be advanced.* *


Sean P. Morrisroe served 10 years in the U.S. Marine Corps as an infantryman. *In his post-Marine Corps career, he has advised clients at various investment banks and firms focusing on mergers & acquisitions. *He graduated from UC Irvine with a BA in History and attended the London School of Economics.*

Related Topics: National Security, Indian Ocean, String Of Pearls, Saudi Arabia, Japan, France, Somalia, North Korea, Northern Africa, People's Liberation Army Navy, Chinese Navy, China, Djibouti, Camp Lemonnier, Hard Power, Soft Power, U.s. Foreign Policy, Naval Base, Red Sea


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Housecarl

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/03/22/taiwan_to_build_indigenous_submarine_111018.html

Taiwan to Build Indigenous Submarine

By Associated Press
March 22, 2017

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan (AP) — Taiwan will build its own submarines to get around Beijing's efforts to prevent it from purchasing such craft from overseas and ensure an adequate defense against Chinese threats, President Tsai Ing-wen said Tuesday.

During a visit to the navy's main base in Tsoying, also spelled Zuoying, Tsai oversaw the signing of a memorandum of understanding on the construction of submarines.

"Under the strategic concept of effective and multilayered deterrence, sub-surface combat ability is what Taiwan's defense is most in need of strengthening," Tsai said. "This is a problem that everyone is aware of but which in the past we were never able to resolve."

Taiwan's navy presently has just two combat-ready subs, versions of the Zwaardvis-class subs purchased from the Netherlands in the 1980s in a deal that led to a major diplomatic rift between Bejing and The Hague.

Although George W. Bush's administration had pledged to help Taiwan procure more submarines, the U.S. no longer makes the diesel electric craft that Taiwan needs and has apparently been unable to enlist foreign makers in providing their expertise.

Earlier reports have said Taiwan was seeking eight new submarines, although Tsai gave no details other than to say that sub production would be the "most challenging" aspect of Taiwan's development of an upgraded indigenous defense industry.

The craft will be built through a joint venture between the government's Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology and the formerly state-owned ship maker CSBC Corp.

The announcement comes weeks after Tsai announced a $2.1 billion investment in the production of air force jet trainers to be designed and manufactured on the island.

China has successfully used its diplomatic and economic clout to prevent many overseas military purchases by Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory.

Most of Taiwan's military hardware is either produced domestically or bought from the United States, which is legally bound to ensure Taiwan can defend itself, despite having only unofficial ties with the island.
 

Housecarl

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Shots fired outside British Parliament
Started by*auxman‎,*Today*07:58 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?513943-Shots-fired-outside-British-Parliament/page4

I only posted a couple of photos...for the rest and video at the article please go to the site....HC

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4339530/Police-urge-public-streets-London.html

London on high alert: Police urge public to keep off streets of capital as they issue list of NO GO AREAS following Parliament terror attack*
  • Up to 12 pedestrians injured as car mowed them down on Westminster Bridge*
  • Officer stabbed by man then shot dead by the gates of Palace of Westminster*
  • Commander BJ Harrington of the Met Police warned people to stay away today
  • Westminster Tube shut and a list of no-go areas in London was issued by police
*

By James Dunn For Mailonline
Published: 13:07 EDT, 22 March 2017 | Updated: 15:22 EDT, 22 March 2017
Comments 97

Londoners have been warned to stay off the streets as on of the capital's busiest areas was placed one lockdown today after a police officer and at least three more people were killed in an attack on the Palace of Westminster.

Westminster Tube station has been closed following the attack, before which at least ten more were injured as the attacker mounted the pavement on Westminster Bridge and mowed down pedestrians and cyclists in a 4x4.

A huge area around the palace has now been cordoned off, including Westminster Bridge, as police continue to assess the damage and guard against any potential attempts to attack Whitehall.

The police have warned people throughout London to expect armed guards at Tube stations and manning the streets, and the Army is now poised to descend upon London amid the high security alert.*

3E88BBEE00000578-4339530-image-a-13_1490203822369.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/03/22/17/3E88BBEE00000578-4339530-image-a-13_1490203822369.jpg
Police are asking people to avoid Parliament Square, Whitehall, Westminster Bridge, Lambeth Bridge, Victoria Street up to the junction with Broadway and the Victoria Embankment up to Embankment tube

Police are asking people to avoid Parliament Square, Whitehall, Westminster Bridge, Lambeth Bridge, Victoria Street up to the junction with Broadway and the Victoria Embankment up to Embankment tube.

The head of counter-terrorism at London's Metropolitan Police, Mark Rowley, said four people have died in the terror incident in London, including an attacker and a police officer.

He also said some 20 people have been wounded, mostly on Westminster Bridge, where the attacker mounted the pavement and ploughed through cyclists and pedestrians.

Deputy Commissioner Rowley said officers are now searching the area for any other threats, adding: 'We are satisfied at this stage that it looks like there was only one attacker. But it would be foolish to be overconfident early on.'

Two of those injured were police officers who had finished their shift and can be heard screaming at civilians to 'get out the way' as the car approached, in shocking footage of the attack.*

Mr*Rowley said the dead policeman *who died was one of the armed officers who guard Parliament and the other victims confirmed dead were on Westminster Bridge.


The Thames*has been closed from Vauxhall to Embankment 'as part of the security response', after a member of the public, believed to have been hit by the car, was recovered from the water near Westminster Bridge.

The closure of the river, along with roads in the centre and Westminster, used by thousands of people visiting and working in Whitehall every day, is already causing travel chaos in central London.

Dozens of people were stranded in the air at the top of the London Eye, which stopped amid the carnage in Westminster.*

The death toll so far stands at four, including the attacker, who was shot after stabbing a police officer with a knife. The officer suffered fatal injuries and has also died, police have now confirmed.

Rowley says 'We are satisfied at this stage that it looks like there was only one attacker. But it would be foolish to be overconfident early on.'


Some pedestrians were said to have suffered 'catastrophic injuries', and one woman was fished out of the water after it is thought that she jumped over the edge to avoid the careering vehicle.

The driver, said to be an Asian man in his 40s, then ploughed into the gates of the Palace of Westminster, where Theresa May had been answering Prime Minister's Questions.

Witness Jayne Wilkinson said: 'We were taking photos of Big Ben and we saw all the people running towards us, and then there was an Asian guy in about his 40s carrying a knife about seven or eight inches long.

'And then there were three shots fired, and then we crossed the road and looked over. The man was on the floor with blood.

'He had a lightweight jacket on, dark trousers and a shirt. He was running through those gates, towards Parliament, and the police were chasing him.'

Craig Mackley, who is the acting head of the Met, is being treated as a significant witness so was unable to answer questions today. Acting commander BJ Harrington said that there were 'a number of casualties' but would not confirm how many.

He urged people in London to stay away from the area - usually populated by thousands of tourists visiting some of Britain's most iconic architecture - as police continue to investigate.*

3E8703D400000578-0-image-a-1_1490202203962.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/03/22/17/3E8703D400000578-0-image-a-1_1490202203962.jpg
This map shows the area now cordoned off after the attack this afternoon, as well as where people were hurt

3E889B3900000578-4339530-image-a-29_1490204792771.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/03/22/17/3E889B3900000578-4339530-image-a-29_1490204792771.jpg
Two knives have were seen on the ground as a man, believed to be the attacker, pictured, was taken from the scene in an ambulance. Police have now confirmed that he has died

Commander Harrington also said they were not yet sure of the motive, but Scotland Yard said that the attack - a year after the Brussels bombing - was being treated as terrorist 'until we know otherwise'. *

The commander told reporters: 'I can confirm we are treating this as a terrorist incident, although we remain open-minded as it the motives for the incident. A full investigation is underway.

'The acting commissioner was a significant witness in the incident as he was there at the scene and it would not be appropriate for him to discuss it at this stage.

'We request any member of the public who has an information to contact police. Anyone who has any film of the incident should contact us as well.

'I want to reiterate our number one priority is keeping the public safe and if Londoners on their way home from work today will see an increased police presence.'


An hour after the attack, paramedics removed a man, thought to be the attacker, from the scene after extensive CPR. Another body appeared to have been left on the ground covered by a red blanket.

A doctor at St Thomas' Hospital confirmed one woman has died and a number of others have been hurt - including some with 'catastrophic' injuries. At least three police officers are believed to have been injured.


Prime Minister Theresa May, who was evacuated from Parliament in an armoured car, is to chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee to discuss the immediate response to the bloody incident.

The Cobra committee brings together government ministers with senior officials of the emergency services and security and intelligence agencies. Normal parliamentary discussions were suspended when the news broke today.

Meeting in a briefing room of the Cabinet Office on Whitehall, Cobra co-ordinates the high-level response to serious incidents, and has previously gathered after terrorist atrocities including the July 7 attacks on the London transport network and the murder of soldier Lee Rigby.

Investigations into the emergency at Westminster are in their infancy, but the early details echo terrorist incidents in Europe and chime with warnings from security chiefs about possible attack methods.

Although Britain has until now remained unscathed amid the recent flurry of atrocities on the continent, senior figures have repeatedly cautioned that the UK remains a major target.

Earlier this month it was revealed that 13 potential attacks have been foiled since the murder of Lee Rigby in 2013, while counter-terrorism units are running more than 500 live investigations at any time.

The official threat level for international terrorism has been at severe - meaning an attack is 'highly likely' - for more than two years.

And the events at Westminster appear to tally with warnings about the threat posed by more rudimentary tactics, such as lone or small numbers of assailants carrying out knife attacks or using vehicles as weapons, in addition to more large-scale bomb or firearms plots.

The possibility that vehicles could be used to inflict multiple casualties were confirmed in horrifying fashion in the Nice attacks in July last year when dozens of people were killed when a lorry ploughed into a large crowd watching a fireworks display to mark the Bastille Day holiday.

Months later an attacker drove a lorry into a crowded Christmas market in central Berlin, killing several people and injuring dozens more.

Both Islamic State and al Qaida have previously urged followers to use vehicles to carry out attacks. Neither have yet claimed responsibility for today's violent acts.

A report published in December by Europol, the EU's law enforcement agency, said the bloc was facing a range of terrorist threats and attacks including the use of bladed weapons and vehicles.

In January former terror laws watchdog David Anderson spoke of a 'realisation on the part of the terrorists that they don't need sophisticated explosives plots to take great numbers of lives'.

HOW TODAY'S EVENTS IN LONDON HAPPENED

2.40pm: An attacker mows down several pedestrians as he drives a Hyundai i40 across Westminster Bridge before crashing it into railings then running through the gates of the Palace of Westminster and stabbing a police officer
2.41pm: Metropolitan Police and London Ambulance Service are called to a major incident
3.35pm: Police say the attack is being treated 'as a terrorist incident until we know otherwise'
4.10pm: Junior doctor at St Thomas' Hospital says one woman has died and a number of others have been hurt - including some with 'catastrophic' injuries
4.45pm: Paramedics confirm they have treated at least ten patients on Westminster Bridge
4.49pm: Police Commander BJ Harrington says there were 'a number of casualties' in the attack 'including police officers'.
4.51pm: Downing Street spokesman says Prime Minister Theresa May will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee later
5.40pm: Sources reveal the police officer stabbed at Parliament has died
6.01pm: Police say four people were killed in the attack, including the police officer and a man believed to be the attacker
6.56pm: Home Secretary Amber Rudd says the Government's top priority following the attack is 'the security of its people'

He added: 'People using automatic weapons, heavy goods vehicles, even knives, machetes, and securing all the publicity they could possibly want from deploying relatively simple weapons such as that.'*

Scotland Yard counter-terror chief Mark Rowley said earlier this month that police are concerned about 'everything from fairly simple attacks with knives or using vehicles all the way through to the more complex firearms attacks'.

Security services and police will be starting to piece together the possible motivations behind the attack on Wednesday, but the location - the heart of British democracy - will be seen as highly significant.

It comes days after the Metropolitan Police staged a mock 'pleasure boat' attack on the Thames to test the emergency response to such an emergency.
*
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said: 'There has been a serious incident near to Parliament Square this afternoon which is being treated as a terrorist attack until the police know otherwise.

'I have spoken to the Acting Commissioner. The Metropolitan Police Service is dealing with the incident and an urgent investigation is under way. My thoughts are with those affected and their families.

'I would like to express my thanks to the police and emergency services who work so hard to keep us safe and show tremendous bravery in exceptionally difficult circumstances.'*
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/0...ng-to-us-bomber-flying-in-east-china-sea.html

Asia

China issues warning to US bomber flying in East China Sea

By Lucas Tomlinson Published March 22, 2017 FoxNews.com

Video: China warns of a head-on collision with the US, the Koreas

The Chinese military issued a warning to a U.S. Air Force B-1 bomber flying in the East China Sea Wednesday morning amid escalating tensions in the region, two U.S. officials told Fox News.

The Chinese said the U.S. bomber was flying in international airspace. American officials tell Fox News the bomber was flying in international airspace and continued on its mission---albeit without its wingman.*

NORTH KOREA'S AGITATION GAME
Fox News has learned that two B-1 bombers were supposed to launch a patrol from Guam to the Korean Peninsula as part of training exercises with the South Koreans, hours after the failed North Korean missile launch.

Only one B-1 bomber was able to take off. The other was scrubbed due to maintenance issues.

The Chinese warning came over the emergency radio frequency known as "guard," according to one official. The incident unfolded when the American bomber was flying 70 miles southwest of the South Korean island of Jeju.

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford were addressing lawmakers on Capitol Hill Wednesday about the defense budget and the current readiness crisis facing the U.S. military.

Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/22/politics/syria-tabqa-dam/index.html

US joins first air assault 'behind enemy lines' against ISIS in Syria

By Barbara Starr, Zachary Cohen and Ryan Browne, CNN
Updated 11:04 PM ET, Wed March 22, 2017

Video

Washington (CNN)Fighters in Syria have begun a major ground offensive, backed up by US forces, to retake a vital dam near Raqqa, Syria, from ISIS, a US official told CNN Wednesday.

The attack also included an unprecedented air assault involving US helicopters landing behind enemy lines -- flying about 500 local US allies and coalition military advisers across the Euphrates River and Lake Assad so they could attack the ISIS-controlled dam and neighboring town and airfield from the south.

"This is the first time we have conducted an air movement, air assault, with the Syrian Arab Coalition and Syrian Democratic Forces," Col. Joseph Scrocca, a coalition public affairs officer, said. On a call with reporters from Baghdad Wednesday, Scrocca called the air operation a "daring assault behind enemy lines."

Scrocca would not say how many troops were involved, but a military source said about 500 troops were airlifted behind enemy lines. The attack was backed by US Marines firing M777 howitzers and close air support, including airstrikes carried out by Apache helicopters.

But ISIS remains in control of the area after the attack, and weeks of tough fighting could remain, Scrocca said.

"We believe there are foreign fighters there, probably in the hundreds," he said. "The (Syrian Democratic Forces) and our partners there are facing a pretty heavy fight -- that's what makes this type of operation so daring. I think we were lucky we caught ISIS by surprise. They are still reacting to this maneuver."

Tabqa Dam is located 25 miles west of Raqqa, ISIS' self-declared capital, and supplies electric power to a wide area of Syria, according to the US. The area has been under ISIS control since 2013.

Retaking the dam is considered a vital step toward further isolating the area around Raqqa and eventually recapturing the city.

The dam and surrounding terrain is a key military asset because it's "critical for the isolation of Raqqa and the next step toward an annihilation of ISIS in Syria," but the dam's destruction "could lead to a severe humanitarian crisis," Scrocca warned.

US Marines equipped with artillery arrived in northern Syria earlier this month with the goal of accelerating the capabilities of the US-backed Arab and Kurdish forces there.

The Pentagon and Marine Corps declined to confirm the deployment because of security concerns in the region. They also declined to specify the exact location of the forces or how many are there.

A similar deployment last year near Mosul, Iraq, involved several hundred Marines equipped with artillery guns to provide covering fire for advancing forces.

The US believes the pressure on ISIS in Raqqa is working. A US official told reporters on March 8 that intelligence indicates some ISIS leaders and operatives continue to try to leave the city.

There is also US intelligence that indicates the city is laced with trenches, tunnels, roadside bombs and houses and buildings wired to explode, the official said. If correct, it indicates that the US has likely been able to gather intelligence from both overhead surveillance aircraft and people on the ground.

However, the official also noted that "Raqqa will probably not be the final battle against ISIS," and added that the group still has some personnel dispersed in areas south and east of the city.

ISIS could have as many as 4,000 fighters in Raqqa, according to very rough US estimates, the official said. Since November, the terror group has lost some 3,400 square kilometers around Raqqa, in a wide arc north of the city.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/0...ng-to-us-bomber-flying-in-east-china-sea.html

Asia

China issues warning to US bomber flying in East China Sea

By Lucas Tomlinson Published March 22, 2017 FoxNews.com

Video: China warns of a head-on collision with the US, the Koreas

The Chinese military issued a warning to a U.S. Air Force B-1 bomber flying in the East China Sea Wednesday morning amid escalating tensions in the region, two U.S. officials told Fox News.

The Chinese said the U.S. bomber was flying in international airspace. American officials tell Fox News the bomber was flying in international airspace and continued on its mission---albeit without its wingman.*

NORTH KOREA'S AGITATION GAME
Fox News has learned that two B-1 bombers were supposed to launch a patrol from Guam to the Korean Peninsula as part of training exercises with the South Koreans, hours after the failed North Korean missile launch.

Only one B-1 bomber was able to take off. The other was scrubbed due to maintenance issues.

The Chinese warning came over the emergency radio frequency known as "guard," according to one official. The incident unfolded when the American bomber was flying 70 miles southwest of the South Korean island of Jeju.

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford were addressing lawmakers on Capitol Hill Wednesday about the defense budget and the current readiness crisis facing the U.S. military.

Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews

Well watch for this to get "dumber"....to the point of someone "catching" some air to air ordnance....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-says-u-respect-chinas-air-defense-zone-084201371.html

China says U.S. should respect China's air defense zone

Reuters
March 23, 2017

BEIJING (Reuters) - China said on Thursday the United States should respect its air defense identification zone (ADIZ), after CNN reported China had warned a U.S. bomber it was illegally flying inside China's self-declared zone in the East China Sea.

China declared the zone, in which aircraft are supposed to identify themselves to Chinese authorities, in the East China Sea in 2013, which the United States and Japan have refused to recognize.

CNN, citing the U.S. Pacific Air Forces, said the B-1 bomber was flying near South Korea on Sunday, and that its pilots responded to Chinese air traffic controllers saying they were carrying out routine operations in international airspace, and that the aircraft did not deviate from its flight path.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said she had not heard of the matter, and referred questions to the Defense Ministry, which did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

"But, generally speaking, I hope that in this region all countries' actions consider the security concerns of relevant countries and be beneficial for mutual trust, peace and stability between countries," Hua told a daily news briefing.

"The United States has its own ADIZs. I think if this matter is true, they should respect China's relevant ADIZ rights," she added, without elaborating.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Nick Macfie)

--

17162082.JPG

http://www.todayonline.com/sites/de...ge_lightbox/public/17162082.JPG?itok=xEB9eqHt

_71609530_east_asian_air_ec_zones264.gif

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/.../gif/_71609530_east_asian_air_ec_zones264.gif
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/more-precise-us-nukes-could-raise-tensions-russia

More precise U.S. nukes could raise tensions with Russia

By Eliot Marshall
Mar. 22, 2017 , 9:00 AM

U.S. weapon designers may deserve a pat on the back for the sheer cleverness of an improved targeting system that is turning aging nuclear warheads into surgically precise weapons. But a new analysis warns of risky consequences. The fix, which has been developed quietly over 2 decades and is now being deployed on U.S. submarine–launched ballistic missiles, makes a small adjustment to the height at which a warhead explodes. The result is a dramatic improvement in the odds that the blast will destroy its target.

To Russia, whose defensive radars provide very short warning of a ballistic missile attack, the fix could raise fears that the United States is capable of launching a first strike that would knock out Russia’s silo-based nuclear missiles before they can be launched. That undermines nuclear deterrence and creates “a deeply destabilizing and dangerous strategic nuclear situation,” according to the report in the 1 March issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS).

The tweak to a nuclear weapon’s fuze, or detonation control, could add to tensions that are rising on several fronts. Earlier this month, U.S. officials confirmed that Russia has deployed a new missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a 1987 pact affecting Europe. At the same time, Russia has been leaking information about its plans for a new seagoing robotic bomb designed to hit U.S. ports. And in December 2016 the Pentagon’s Defense Science Board recommended resurrecting small, low-yield nuclear weapons of the sort that were eliminated from the U.S. arsenal (but not Russia’s) starting in 1991 because they might lower the threshold for nuclear war. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, tweeted in December 2016 that the United States must “greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability.” Trump’s proposed 2018 budget would boost funding for weapons-related work at the National Nuclear Security Administration by 11%, to $14.3 billion.

The targeting change is part of the nuclear stockpile stewardship plan that began a decade ago and is aimed at maintaining the U.S. nuclear deterrent without the need to develop and test new weapons. Many details of the fix are secret. But the BAS article explains how the new “superfuze” works.

Shortly before a warhead arrives at its target, the superfuze uses radar to gauge the distance remaining on the ballistic path, taking into account any drift off track. The old technology set the detonation at a fixed height at or near the ground; course errors could shift the center of the blast away from the target (see diagram). But the new system adjusts the detonation altitude so that the blast is triggered at a higher point to keep it in the target’s so-called “lethal volume.” Within this zone, the authors say, a 100-kiloton warhead will destroy a hardened structure with 86% certainty. The public has “completely missed [the superfuze’s] revolutionary impact on military capabilities,” the report’s authors contend.

To tell the superfuze story, Theodore Postol, a physicist and missile expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, gathered technical clues from U.S. Navy patents issued in 1976 and 1984, when the idea first surfaced. Hans Kristensen, who directs the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, D.C., sifted through weapons history and policy statements. And Matthew McKinzie, a nuclear physicist at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington, D.C., vetted the math.

--

Lethal impact
Warheads that would otherwise overfly a target can now, with a fuze that adjusts the height of detonation, have a high probability of destroying the target.

Nukes.png

http://www.sciencemag.org/sites/def...99w__no_aspect/public/Nukes.png?itok=M-hYyGYQ

---
The trio found few signs that U.S. policy leaders grasped the importance of the targeting fix. Kristensen points to a rare public discussion in a 1994 study by the U.S. departments of defense and energy. It concludes that, by switching out the fixed-height fuze on a garden-variety U.S. warhead—the W76, with a 100-kiloton blast—to use one that adjusts the detonation height just before arriving, the system could draw a bead on Russian targets more effectively.

More disturbing, say the BAS authors, the superfuze makes it possible to rely on the updated W76 to destroy “hardened targets” such as heavily reinforced missile silos. Sending just two superfuze-enhanced W76 warheads against a fixed missile silo, according to Postol, would be certain to destroy the missile. Previously only larger warheads, or a larger number of W76s, could reliably do so. In a stroke, the superfuze gives U.S. nuclear submarines greater destructive power with fewer warheads and more flexibility—a new capability. “It’s a pretty amazing accomplishment,” Kristensen says.

The BAS authors calculate that by the end of 2016, U.S. weapon facilities had already produced roughly 1200 of a planned 1600 W76s armed with the superfuze. Of these, they say, “about 506” are now deployed on ballistic missile submarines. They estimate that potentially 272 such warheads, with two sent against each target, could eliminate “all 136 Russian silo-based ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles].” That would leave a thousand more updated warheads—as well as more powerful warheads with the older fuze—in reserve, for use against targets like mobile missile units, command centers, or deep bunkers. Potentially hundreds more warheads in the stockpile could be updated in the future as well.

Although the analysis cites few government sources, it is solid, says Philip E. Coyle III, a former Pentagon weapons test director now at the Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation in Washington, D.C. Richard Garwin, an IBM physicist in Yorktown Heights, New York, who has been involved in weapons design and control for decades, also judges the analysis to be “true.” But Thomas Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., dismisses what he calls its “breathless exposé language” and the authors’ concerns about unnerving Russia. Karako argues that the Russian government has violated or ignored not only the INF Treaty, but also a series of other U.S.-Russian agreements made in the 1990s to scrap shorter-range nuclear weapons. He calls it a “unique neurosis of Western arms controllers” to try to block improvement of their own technology.

Russians see this technological advance as one of many reasons to be wary of U.S. intentions, Kristensen argues. He cites a diatribe delivered by Russian President Vladimir Putin last year to a group of journalists in St. Petersburg, Russia, in which Putin complained about a risky expansion of nuclear weapons systems across the board. “Your people,” Putin said, referring to the United States and its allies, “do not feel a sense of the impending danger—this is what worries me.”

Eliot Marshall is a science journalist in Washington, D.C.

Posted in: PhysicsTechnology
DOI: 10.1126/science.aal0941

---
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BillK • 10 hours ago
I suspect I'm one of the few happy to read development in the field is ongoing.

One clearly shouldn't be so naïve as to think other countries with nuclear weapons haven't also been further refining them and their targeting systems.
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David Morris BillK • 8 hours ago
Possible. But, giving the state of the Russian economy its not likely. We also have an ABMS which Russia doesnt have. In a few short years we could have first strike capabilities. It worries the Russians, they think we will invade and try to destroy their country. Which, given our history of regime change and invasions isnt far fetched.
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Jbar • 11 hours ago
Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper just to take out Putin?


^ Mr. Morris is incorrect, the Russians do have ABMs...HC
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39359474

Venezuela shocked as children arrested for soldiers' killings

22 March 2017
From the section Latin America & Caribbean

The authorities in Venezuela say they have arrested six children in connection with the killing of two soldiers.

The soldiers, two sergeants from the national guard, were stabbed to death near a bar in the capital, Caracas, last weekend.

The crime has shocked the country, as the ages of the children now in custody range from six to 15 years.

They are said to belong to a gang called Los Cachorros (The Puppies).

The sergeants, Yohan Borrero and Andres Ortiz, were wearing civilian clothes at the time of the attack.

They were smoking cigarettes outside the bar in the early hours of Sunday when two children approached them and stole one of their bags.

They promptly ran after them but were met on a dark street by several other children with knives, police said.

The sergeants were overwhelmed by members of the gang, who stabbed them several times.

One of the men died on the spot, while the other died later at a hospital.

Venezuela has one of the highest murder rates in the world.

The Venezuelan Observatory of Violence group estimates there were 28,479 violent deaths last year, that is 91.8 per 100,000 residents.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-p..._term=Editorial - Military - Early Bird Brief

WORLD NEWS | Tue Mar 21, 2017 | 8:17am EDT

U.S. drone kills militant blamed for attack on Sri Lanka cricket team in Pakistan

By Saud Mehsud | DERA ISMAIL KHAN

A U.S. drone airstrike in Afghanistan has killed a Pakistani militant accused of involvement in a deadly attack on a bus carrying Sri Lanka's cricket team in 2009, Pakistani security sources and Islamist militants said.

Islamist militants are increasingly basing themselves in Afghanistan after an army crackdown in Pakistan, officials in the country say.

The U.S. unmanned aircraft struck a car carrying Qari Mohammad Yasin, also known as Ustad Aslam, on Sunday in the southwestern Afghan province of Paktika bordering Pakistan, Pakistani intelligence sources said.

The attack killed Yasin, who specialized in training suicide bombers, and three other militants, added the officials, who declined to be identified as they are not allowed to talk to the media.

There was no immediate comment from U.S. military officials in Afghanistan.

Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department had offered a bounty of 2 million rupees ($19,000) for Yasin, saying he was involved in the 2009 bus attack in the northeastern city of Lahore, allegedly organized by militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.

Confirmation of the death came from Ali bin Sufyan, spokesman for a Lashkar-e-Jhangvi offshoot, Al Alami, which has cooperated with militant group Islamic State in the past.

The group carried out a bomb attack against Pakistan's military in the southwestern province of Baluchistan as "revenge", he added, without giving details.

The attack on the Sri Lankan team bus led to Pakistan's exclusion from the role of hosting major international tours.

ALSO IN WORLD NEWS

British police arrest seven in probe into attack on parliament
Fierce clashes persist in Syria ahead of renewed peace talks

At least 10 gunmen fired on the bus with rifles, grenades and rockets, wounding six players and a British coach, and killing eight Pakistanis.

Since then, Pakistan has been forced to play most of its 'home' games in the United Arab Emirates.

Pakistani police last year also said they killed three other militants involved in the 2009 attack.

(Writing by Drazen Jorgic; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/mar/21/iraq-and-syria-security-could-get-worse/

A slippery slope in Iraq and Syria

U.S. troops face a volatile array of combatants

By Shoshana Bryen - - Tuesday, March 21, 2017
Comments 2
ANALYSIS/OPINION:

The good news is various forces are attacking ISIS (the Islamic State) and its control of territory is weakening. But as it does, historical adversaries are converging on the battlefield and American troops are standing between them in ever-increasing numbers. What began as limited airstrikes has become an American ground presence. Changes begun in the previous administration continue in the current one.

This is not Vietnam. But as the numbers increase, it is worth noting that GIs are in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Somalia and Afghanistan without the United States being at war with any of these countries or necessarily supporting any of their governments. But neither President Obama nor President Trump has talked to the American people about three essential things here: America’s allies, America’s adversaries, and American military and political goals.

Five thousand American troops are near Mosul, along with Kurds, Iraqi troops, Shiite Iraqi militias and up to 80,000 Iranian-sponsored Shiite militiamen under the control of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Gen. Soleimani, banned by the United Nations from international travel for his terrorism ties, is still moving.

With him come allies. One, Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, has called on Shiite troops to kill Americans. The Institute for the Study of War reported that another has been responsible for more than 6,000 attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq since 2006. Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq (“Band of the Righteous”) considers Americans an occupying army and continues to fight them.

The war President Obama claimed to have ended in 2011 did not stop for these people. Now we are back in their space, working toward the same goal in Mosul, but with incompatible longer-term aims.

The latest American troop increase is in Syria, where the war against ISIS has moved to recapturing territory in Manbij and soon Raqqa, the Syrian capital of the self-proclaimed Islamic State “caliphate.” Along with airstrikes, the most recent report says that hundreds of U.S. Marines with heavy artillery have been deployed near Raqqa, adding to several hundred Americans already there. Another group of approximately 1,000 American soldiers is planned for Kuwait to “provide options” for commanders in Syria.

Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met last week in Kazakhstan with his Russian and Turkish counterparts to solidify deconfliction plans. But the potential for miscalculation or malicious attack rises exponentially as American, Iranian and Iranian-sponsored multinational Shiite militias, Kurdish, Syrian government, Syrian rebel, Turkish, Hezbollah (“Party of God”) and Russian air and a few ground forces converge.

Manbij, a city of Arabs, Yazidis and Kurds about 70 miles from Raqqa, is a flash point. In mid-August, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) routed ISIS gunmen and claimed the city. In late August, Turkish forces entered Syria and announced their own liberation of Manbij — from the SDF. Turkish planes bombed Kurdish forces before pulling back.

The secular SDF, opposed to Syrian dictator Bashar Assad as well as ISIS, is primarily Kurdish with other Sunni Arab elements; the SDF’s primary Kurdish element is the People’s Protection Units (YPG), an ally of the United States and of Turkey’s nemesis, the People’s Workers Party (the Kurdish PKK). So SDF through YPG is an enemy of America’s NATO ally, Turkey. A U.S. Army spokesman told reporters that after Manbij’s liberation, U.S. Special Forces continued to assist the SDF-organized Manbij Military Council forces.

A few weeks ago, Turkey indicated that it would re-enter Manbij to eliminate “terrorist forces” in the city — meaning Kurds the Turks believe are associated with the PKK. Washington objected. “We have made visible actions in deploying U.S. forces as a part of the coalition in and around Manbij to reassure and deter,” said a Defense Department spokesman. “That’s to deter parties from attacking any other parties other than ISIS itself.”

When did U.S. forces receive the mission of keeping historic enemies from killing each other?

The SDF claims to have sufficient forces, with American support, to liberate Raqqa, 70 miles away. This has caused the Turks again to protest loudly. The Russians have thrown their political support behind the Kurds, aligning American interests with Russia against Turkey.

Has the United States decided to oppose Turkey, which controls access to the NATO air base at Incirlik, with its American contingent and nuclear weapons? Has the United States decided to side with Russia, which is the chief supporter of war criminal Mr. Assad, against Turkey? Side with the Russians who, themselves, have bombed aid convoys headed for rebel Syrian cities? Is it possible to support our allies, the Kurds, without doing both other things?

America’s allies and adversaries — and most of all, our troops — need to some answers as we appear to travel a well-worn and slippery slope.

• Shoshana Bryen is senior director of the Washington-based Jewish Policy Center.
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Cross-post from Russia/Ukraine Thread post [FONT=Verdana,Arial]#18548[/FONT]

:dot5: some dots...

Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises Mar 22
ZVEZDA: BSF coastal defense brigade alerted in Crimea
http://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201703221926-9n8b.htm …
C7idvHIVYAEjgOJ.jpg:small



Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises Mar 22
ZVEZDA: Spectacular footage of large-scale exercises in the Crimea Airborne
http://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201703221754-jmsc.htm …
C7idvxJVQAAbBST.jpg:small




Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises 8h
ZVEZDA: Kantemirovskaya Panzer Division,
refer to the highest degree of readiness

http://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201703231313-f764.htm …
C7mMmCjVsAItfcq.jpg:small



Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises 8h
RIA: In the suburbs began checking readiness Kantemir division


Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises 6h
MIL.RU: Suddenly started checking readiness
Kantemir Tank Division ZVO

http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12115583@egNews …


Aki Heikkinen‏ @akihheikkinen 8h
Russian 1st Tank Army spear tip,
Kantemir tank division alerted.


The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab 3h
VK User "Курская жизнь"
spoke of an armored column
headed westbound along R-298.


Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises 11h
MIL.RU: Brigade Division of the Western Military District,
MTO will fulfill special tasks in landfills

http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12115540@egNews …

Petri Mäkelä‏ @pmakela1 9h
Russia activates logistics/supply brigade
designed to sustain large scale operations.
Kantemir tank division already alerted.



Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises 5h
MIL.RU: Russian paratroopers went to Belarus
to take part in joint exercises with the brigade landing and combat…
http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12115601@egNews …



Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises 11h
ZVEZDA: SWAT BBO worked night landing behind enemy lines
http://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201703231049-a9gt.htm …
C7lt62xU8AEOtxm.jpg:small




Russian Exercises‏ @RUSexercises 9h
MIL.RU: Russian troops in Transnistria
learn to destroy low-flying attack aircraft and helicopters imaginary enemy

http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12115545@egNews …



Aki Heikkinen‏ @akihheikkinen 8h
Russia about to start (presser says late March)
mobile strategic missile forces emergency deployment exercise.
Including reserve call-ups.




Liveuamap‏Verified account @Liveuamap 7h
Russia closed movement at border checkpoint North of Chernyhiv region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2017/23-march-russia-closed-movement-at-border-checkpoint-north
via @novostidnua
C7mdWIwXgAA6cb8.jpg:small




The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab 6h
An English RC-135
is currently collecting intelligence off the coast of Kaliningrad.

C7mqtv5XgAA5cRn.jpg:small




The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab 6h
An E-3A Sentry also seems to be collecting some intelligence.
Both the E-3A & R-135 are within 100 kilometers of the Kaliningrad oblast.

C7mtWE1WkAE8ekZ.jpg:small
 

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Conflict News‏ @Conflicts 18m
BREAKING: U.S. officials believe DPRK is in the final stages
of preparing for another nuclear test & one could happen within days
- @BNONews



The North Koreans just repeated that line again
about witnessing the significance of the new rocket engine.
I don't like surprises.

C7oCakpVQAAT7cb.jpg:small



Nathan J Hunt‏ @ISNJH 9m
A new nuke test by DPRK
would be the first nuclear test under the new US admins watch,
likely to trigger new UNSC meetings


^^^ Or trigger a 'high pressure meeting' of several kilograms
of Highly Refined Pure USA Grade A Plutonium over North Korea.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
And if RoK then Japan and RoC, etc....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2017&no=201525

S.Korea must consider nuclear option for sure deterrence against N.Korea: Expert report

2017.03.24 16:33:06 | 2017.03.24 17:33:52

For fundamental deterrence against escalating North Korean nuclear weapons threat, South Korea should seriously consider going nuclear through the options of using the country’s existing advanced facility and technology in producing commercial nuclear energy or sharing U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea, advised experts from home and abroad.

The Korea Security Report, compiled by the Maeil Business Newspaper and Sejong Institute with the help of over 40 experts on North Korea, security, political, economic, and international affairs, set the stage for public debate on the nuclear option for South Korea that has long been a tabooed idea.

Among the advisers were Baek Jong-chun, former presidential secretary on foreign and security policy, Edwin Feulner, former president of Heritage Foundation, and Jonathan Pollack, senior fellow of Brookings Institution.

The three-month work released as the agenda for the 26th Vision Korea National Conference on Thursday examines the geopolitical developments, North Korea’s marked advances in nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology, provocations, and arms capabilities of North Korea and allied South Korea-U.S. to substantiate grounds for South Korea’s nuclear armament for “Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), a Cold War doctrine based on the Nash equilibrium theory arguing that once armed with full-scale nuclear weapons, neither side can initiate a conflict.

The voice of nuclear sovereignty that had so far been limited to extreme rightists gained attention and support upon recent North Korean nuclear and missile tests demonstrating the regime is near perfecting the technology of blasting off missiles in various ranges with miniaturized nuclear warheads. Adding to worries were the campaign statements from President Donald Trump suggesting disengagement from Asian traditional security allies unless they share greater defense cost.

For decisive deterrence and “upgrade” in security policy, the report suggested that Seoul first negotiate to revise bilateral civil nuclear agreement with Washington that bans the use of U.S.-origin materials for military purposes. Although cited as closest traditionally ally, Seoul is discriminated by Washington over use of nuclear energy more than India, Brazil, and Argentina, the report claimed.

South Korea is strictly regulated in processing of spent fuel and enriching uranium and must largely rely on U.S. fuel imports to run its 25 nuclear reactors even after gaining a slight adjustment from 2015 talks.

Japan on the other hand is free to enrich uranium and recycle spent fuel. If South Korea is licensed to the use of fuel to the extent of Japan, it could quickly be able to develop nuclear weapons with existing resources as the last resort. South Korea at least would have leverage against the North, the report said.

Another option would be gaining NATO-like access to U.S. weapons. The U.S. deploys its nuclear weapons in five non-nuclear North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries - Belgium, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Turkey - under the nuclear sharing policy to enable the use of the weapons by NATO members. Although the U.S. has the last say in their use, the member countries can mount them in weapons systems.

South Korea also must push for greater distance in its rockets for future space and deterrence capabilities. North Korea is working on a ballistic missile that can fly as far as 15,000 kilometers, but South Korea’s ballistic missile cannot go beyond 800 kilometers.

“North Korea’s reckless nuclear tests and missile provocations threaten not only the Korean peninsula but regional and global peace,” said Korea’s acting president and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn at the conference. “The nation must achieve unity and harmony to fight the security challenges together,” he said.
By Noh Hyun and Choi Seung-jin
 
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