WAR 01/30 to 02/05 ***The**Winds***of***WAR***

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01/22 to 01/29 ***The***Winds**of***WAR***
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?397985-01-22-to-01-29-***The***Winds**of***WAR***

The above thread has a very important (need to read) 'block' of articles by House Carl, the whole of the last 2 pages of the thread litterally "tell the reader" that it is too late to turn back now....



:shkr:
It Can’t Happen Here

By Tom Engelhardt
Source: TomDispatch.com
Monday, January 30, 2012
http://www.zcommunications.org/iranian-aircraft-carriers-in-the-gulf-of-mexico-by-tom-engelhardt

Exclusive: New Iranian Commando
Team Operating Near U.S.


(Tehran, FNA) The Fars News Agency has confirmed with the Republican Guard’s North American Operations Command that a new elite Iranian commando team is operating in the U.S.-Mexican border region. The primary day-to-day mission of the team, known as the Joint Special Operations Gulf of Mexico Task Force, or JSOG-MTF, is to mentor Mexican military units in the border areas in their war with the deadly drug cartels. The task force provides “highly trained personnel that excel in uncertain environments,” Maj. Amir Arastoo, a spokesman for Republican Guard special operations forces in North America, tells Fars, and “seeks to confront irregular threats...”


The unit began its existence in mid-2009 -- around the time that Washington rejected the Iranian leadership’s wish for a new diplomatic dialogue. But whatever the task force does about the United States -- or might do in the future -- is a sensitive subject with the Republican Guard. “It would be inappropriate to discuss operational plans regarding any particular nation,” Arastoo says about the U.S.

Okay, so I made that up. Sue me. But first admit that, a line or two in, you knew it was fiction. After all, despite the talk about American decline, we are still on a one-way imperial planet. Yes, there is a new U.S. special operations team known as Joint Special Operations Task Force-Gulf Cooperation Council, or JSOTF-GCC, at work near Iran and, according to Wired magazine’s Danger Room blog, we really don’t quite know what it’s tasked with doing (other than helping train the forces of such allies as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia).

And yes, the quotes are perfectly real, just out of the mouth of a U.S. “spokesman for special-operations forces in the Mideast,” not a representative of Iran’s Republican Guard. And yes, most Americans, if they were to read about the existence of the new special ops team, wouldn’t think it strange that U.S. forces were edging up to (if not across) the Iranian border, not when our “safety” was at stake.

Reverse the story, though, and it immediately becomes a malign, if unimaginable, fairy tale. Of course, no Iranian elite forces will ever operate along the U.S. border. Not in this world. Washington wouldn’t live with it and it remains the military giant of giants on this planet. By comparison, Iran is, in military terms, a minor power.

Any Iranian forces on the Mexican border would represent a crossing of one of those “red lines” that U.S. officials are always talking about and so an international abomination to be dealt with severely. More than that, their presence would undoubtedly be treated as an act of war. It would make screaming headlines here. The Republican candidates for the presidency would go wild. You know the rest. Think about the reaction when Attorney General Eric Holder announced that an Iranian-American used-car salesman from Texas had contacted a Mexican drug cartel as part of a bizarre plot supposedly hatched by senior members of the elite Iranian Quds Force to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in a Washington restaurant and possibly bomb the Saudi and Israeli embassies as well.

Though doubts were soon raised about the likelihood of such an Iranian plot, the outrage in the U.S. was palpable. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton insisted that it “crosses a line that Iran needs to be held to account for.” The Wall Street Journal labeled it “arguably an act of war,” as did Congressman Peter King, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee. Speaker of the House John Boehner termed it “a very serious breach of international behavior,” while House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers swore that it crossed “a very dangerous threshold” and called for “unprecedented” action by the Obama administration.

On the other hand, no one here would claim that a U.S. special operations team edging up to the Iranian border was anything out of the ordinary or that it potentially crossed any lines, red or otherwise, or was a step beyond what the international community accepts. In fact, the news, such as it was, caused no headlines in the press, no comments on editorial pages, nothing. After all, everyone knows that Iranians would be the equivalent of fish out of water in Mexico, but that Americans are at home away from home in the Persian Gulf (as in most other places on Earth).

The Iranian “War” Against America

Nonetheless, just for the heck of it, let’s suspend the laws of political and military gravity and pile up a few more fairy-tale-ish details.

Imagine that, in late 2007, Iran's ruling mullahs and their military advisors had decided to upgrade already significant covert activities against Washington, including cross-border operations, and so launched an intensification of its secret campaign to “destabilize” the country’s leadership -- call it a covert war if you will -- funded by hundreds of millions of dollars of oil money; that they (or their allies) supported armed oppositional groups hostile to Washington; that they flew advanced robot drones on surveillance missions in the country's airspace; that they imposed ever escalating sanctions.

Which over the years caused increased suffering among the American people, in order to force Washington to dismantle its nuclear arsenal and give up the nuclear program (military and peaceful) that it had been pursuing since 1943; that they and an ally developed and launched a computer worm meant to destroy American centrifuges and introduced sabotaged parts into its nuclear supply chain; that they encouraged American nuclear scientists to defect; that one of their allies launched an assassination program against American nuclear scientists and engineers, killing five of them on the streets of American cities; that they launched a global campaign to force the world not to buy key American products, including Hollywood movies, iPhones, iPods, and iPads, and weaponry of any sort by essentially embargoing American banking transactions.

Imagine as well that an embattled American president declared the Gulf of Mexico to be off-limits to Iranian aircraft carriers and threatened any entering its waters with dire consequences. In response, the Iranians promptly sent their aircraft carrier, the Mossadegh, and its battle group of accompanying ships directly into Gulf waters not far from Florida and then stationed a second carrier, the Khomeini, and its task force in the nearby Caribbean as support. (Okay, the Iranians don't have aircraft carriers, but just for a moment, suspend disbelief.)

And keep in mind that, in this outlandish scenario, all of the above would only be what we knew about or suspected. You would have to assume that there were also still-unknown aspects to their in-the-shadows campaign of regime change against Washington.

Now, pinned to Iran, that list looks absurd. Were such things to have happened (even in a far more limited fashion), they would have been seen across the American political spectrum as an abomination (and rightly so), a morass of illegal, illegitimate, and immoral acts and programs that would have to be opposed at all costs. As you also know perfectly well, it is a description of just what we do know or suspect that the U.S. has done, alone or in concert with its ally Israel, or what, in the case of the assassination operations against nuclear scientists (and possibly an explosion that destroyed much of an Iranian missile base, killing a major general and 16 others), Israel has evidently done on its own, but possibly with the covert agreement of Washington.

And yet you can search the mainstream news far and wide without seeing words like “illegal,” “illegitimate,” or "immoral” or even “a very serious breach of international behavior” applied to them, though you can certainly find sunny reports on our potential power to loose destruction in the region, the sorts of articles that, if they were in the state-controlled Iranian press, we would consider propaganda.

While the other three presidential candidates were baying for Iranian blood at a recent Republican debate, it was left to Ron Paul, the ultimate outsider, to point out the obvious: that the latest round of oil sanctions being imposed by Washington and just agreed to by the European Union, meant to prohibit the sale of Iranian oil on the international market, was essentially an “act of war,” and that it preceded recent Iranian threats (an unlikely prospect, by the way) to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the planet’s oil flows.

And keep in mind, the covert war against Iran is ostensibly aimed at a nuclear weapon that does not exist, that the country’s leaders claim they are not building, that the best work of the American intelligence community in 2007 and 2010 indicated was not yet on the horizon. (At the moment, at worst, the Iranians are believed to be working toward "possible breakout capacity" -- that is, the ability to relatively “quickly” build a nuclear weapon, if the decision were made.) As for nuclear weapons, we have 5,113 warheads that we don't doubt are necessary for our safety and the safety of the planet. These are weapons that we implicitly trust ourselves to have, even though the United States remains the only country ever to use nuclear weapons, obliterating two Japanese cities at the cost of perhaps 200,000 civilian deaths. Similarly, we have no doubt that the world is safe with Israel possessing up to 200 nuclear weapons, a near civilization-destroying (undeclared) arsenal. But it is our conviction that an Iranian bomb, even one, would end life as we know it.

Added to that fear is the oft-cited fact that Iran is run by a mullahtariat that oppresses any opposition. That, however, only puts it in league with U.S. allies in the region like Bahrain, whose monarchy has shot down, beaten up, and jailed its opposition, and the Saudis, who have fiercely repressed their own dissidents. Nor, in terms of harm to its people, is Iran faintly in a league with past U.S. allies like General Augusto Pinochet of Chile, who launched a U.S.-backed military coup against a democratically elected government on September 11, 1973, killing more than died in the 9/11 attacks of 2001, or the Indonesian autocrat Suharto on whom the deaths of at least half a million of his people are usually pinned.

Washington At Home in the World

Here, then, is a little necessary context for the latest round of Iran-mania in the U.S.: Washington has declared the world its oyster and garrisons the planet in a historically unique way -- without direct colonies but with approximately 1,000 bases worldwide (not including those in war zones or ones the Pentagon prefers not to acknowledge). That we do so, unique as it may be in the records of empire, strikes us as anything but odd and so is little discussed here. One of the reasons is simple enough. What’s called our “safety” and “security” has been made a planetary issue. It is, in fact, the planetary standard for action, though one only we (or our closest allies) can invoke. Others are held to far more limiting rules of behavior.

As a result, a U.S. president can now send drones and special operations forces just about anywhere to kill just about anyone he designates as a threat to our security. Since we are everywhere, and everywhere at home, and everywhere have “interests,” we may indeed be threatened anywhere. Wherever we’ve settled in -- and in the Persian Gulf, as an example, we’re deeply entrenched -- new “red lines” have been created that others are prohibited from crossing. No one, after all, can infringe on our safety.

In support of our interests -- which, speaking truthfully, are also the interests of oil -- we could covertly overthrow an Iranian government in 1953 (starting the whole train of events that led to this crisis moment in the Persian Gulf), and we can again work to overthrow an Iranian government in 2012. The only issue seriously discussed in this country is: How exactly can we do it, or can we do it at all (without causing ourselves irreparably greater harm)? Effectiveness, not legality or morality, is the only measurement. Few in our world (and who else matters?) question our right to do so, though obviously the right of any other state to do something similar to us or one of our allies, or to retaliate or even to threaten to retaliate, should we do so, is considered shocking and beyond all norms, beyond every red line when it comes to how nations (except us) should behave.

This mindset, and the acts that have gone with it, have blown what is, at worst, a modest-sized global problem up into an existential threat, a life-and-death matter. Iran as a global monster now nearly fills what screen-space there is for foreign enemies in the present American moment. Yet, despite its enormous energy reserves, it is a shaky regional power, ruled by a faction-ridden set of fundamentalists (but not madmen), the most hardline of whom seem at the moment ascendant (in no small part due to American and Israeli policies).

The country has a relatively modest military budget, and no recent history of invading other states. It has been under intense pressure of every sort for years now and the strains are showing. The kind of pressure the U.S. and its allies have been exerting creates the basis for madness -- or for terrible miscalculation followed by inevitable tragedy.

In an election year in the U.S., little of this is apparent. The Republicans, Ron Paul aside, have made Iran the entrée du jour on the American (and Israeli) security menu, a situation that couldn’t be more absurdly out of proportion or more dangerous. In fact, when it comes to “American security,” our fundamentalists are off on another rampage with the Obama administration following behind.

Just as a small exercise to restore some sense of proportion, stop for a moment the next time you hear of American or Israeli plans for the further destabilization of Iran and think: what would we do if the Iranians were planning something similar for us?

It’s one small way to begin, individually, to imagine a planet on which everyone might experience some sense of security. And here’s the oddest thing, given the blowback that could come from a blowup in the Persian Gulf, it might even make us all safer.

Tom Engelhardt, co-founder of the American Empire Project and the author of The American Way of War: How Bush’s Wars Became Obama’s as well as The End of Victory Culture, runs the Nation Institute's TomDispatch.com, where this article first appeared. His latest book, The United States of Fear (Haymarket Books), has just been published. To listen to Timothy MacBain’s latest Tomcast audio interview in which Engelhardt discusses reversal scenarios on a one-way planet, click here, or download it to your iPod here.

[Note: The initial “Iranian” news article in this piece was taken, with a few small changes, from “New U.S. Commando Team Operating Near Iran,” a post by the intrepid Spencer Ackerman ofWired’s Danger Room blog, an important place to keep up on all things military. Let me offer a bow as well to Antiwar.com, Juan Cole’s Informed Comment, and Paul Woodward’s the War in Context. I don’t know what I’d do without them when it comes to keeping up.]





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Gold up 10% on India, Iran, China rumours
May pay in bullion for Iran oil; Dollar under attack


By Vicky Kapur
Published Monday, January 30, 2012
http://www.emirates247.com/markets/gold/gold-up-10-on-india-iran-china-rumours-2012-01-30-1.440209


Gold prices are currently trending around the $1,730 per ounce mark, within touching distance of their 60-day high of $1,747/oz, and up 10 per cent in the first 30 days of 2012.

Fuelling the bullion’s newfound drive are rumours that India and China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers, are secretly mulling paying in gold for Iranian oil, and bypassing a European Union (EU) oil embargo on Iran, effective from July 1, 2012.

The EU voted last Monday to ban oil imports from Iran. The move came after a defiant Iran announced earlier in January that it had launched a nuclear enrichment programme at a well-protected underground facility near the city of Qom.


Western nations suspect Iran, which is already under numerous international sanctions, of pursuing a secret nuclear weapons programme but Tehran insists it needs nuclear power solely for civilian purposes.

Nevertheless, the new EU sanctions are being seen as a way for the Western world to bring Iran to the negotiations table, but any move by China and India, which together purchase more than one-third of Iran’s oil, to bypass the sanctions will significantly reduce the EU’s negotiating prowess.

India, which has had traditionally friendly relations with Iran and has found a relatively new ally in the US, is in a precarious situation and has reportedly been working at finding a middle ground and strongly urging for a diplomatic solution.

Iran has already made numerous threats of closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large chunk of the world’s traded oil passes, in case new sanctions are followed through. Moreover, the head of Iran’s state oil company has said that the EU embargo on Iran’s oil exports will push world oil prices to $150 per barrel, something that the fragile world economy can ill-afford at this time.

Nonetheless, there are unsubstantiated rumours floating in the international market that India might have already concluded a swap arrangement by which the payment for Iranian crude will be made in rupees and partially in gold. Two banks have been mentioned in this context, the UCO Bank of India and the Turkish Bank Halk Bankasi.

Speculation is also rife that China, the No. 1 buyer of Iranian oil, may follow India’s lead. Together, the two nations account for over $30 billion in annual oil purchases from Iran, which would be a significant amount of gold replacing the dollar in trade.

These rumours, compounded by a simultaneous decline in the dollar’s value, has seen gold gallop by more than $165 an ounce in the past 30 days, and is currently hovering around $1,730 per ounce.

There is also the prospect of further quantitative easing in the US, with the Federal Reserve ready with additional cash-injections as and when required. Further stimulus by the Fed would be seen as a negative on US economic health and encourage inflation, pushing wary investors back to the safe haven refuge of gold.

That said, gold has seen its safe haven status diminish substantially in the recent past, declining 20 per cent from highs above $1,921 per ounce to lows of $1,520 per ounce in a little over three months last year. While these rumours are currently pushing prices back up, any resolution of the Greek debt crisis and the Iranian situation could as well see spot gold fall back to $1,500-levels.






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India Confronts U.S. and EU, Says Will Not Cut Iran Oil Imports

By Bhaskar Prasad
January 30, 2012 10:51 AM GMT
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/289551/20120130/india-confronts-eu-will-cut-iran-oil.htm

India has stated that it will not cut its oil imports from Iran despite the sanctions laid down against Iran by the U.S and the European Union.


During a visit to Chicago, the Finance Minister of India Pranab Mukherjee made his country’s position clear. "Iran contributes substantially and it is not possible for India to reduce the import from Iran drastically, because the countries that can meet the requirements of emerging economies, Iran is an important country amongst them," said Mukherjee.

Earlier this month, the EU had banned oil imports from Iran. Also, the U.S. wants buyers in Asia, Iran's biggest oil market, to cut imports to put further pressure on the country to restrict its nuclear ambition. But India, which imports 12 percent of its oil from Iran, has decided to go against this wish. "You know Iran is an important supplier of petroleum crude," said Mukherjee. "We import around 105 million tonnes of crude per year. It is increasing. The last import last year was 105-106 million tonnes imported. Iran contributes substantially," he added.


Already the U.S. and EU have declared freezes on the assets of Iran's central bank. The U.S. suspects Iran of manufacturing nuclear weapons, a charge which Tehran has categorically denied, stating that its nuclear program is for peaceful means. Meanwhile, experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are in Iran to inspect its nuclear facilities.






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:siren:
Assad Unleashes Tanks after Arab League Suspends Mission

Tanks slaughter Syrians after Arab League suspends mission.
Army retakes Damascus suburbs. Israel on border alert.


By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
First Publish: 1/30/2012, 1:19 PM
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/152249


Syrian President Bashar Assad unleashed his tanks on his citizens Sunday and Monday, as the carnage worsened following the Arab League's suspension of its mission that was supposed to help bring a truce to the civil war.


The Syrian army has retaken suburbs of Damascus that temporarily had fallen into the hands of the revolution movement, which is nearly a year old. Hundreds more have been killed in the past week, pushing the death toll well beyond 6,000 and possibly much higher.

Saudi Arabia’s order to withdraw its delegation from the Arab League mission, and Damascus’ blaming Gulf States for the storming of the Syrian embassy in Cairo last Friday, may have paved the way for United Nations intervention.

The rebels’ Syrian National Council, supported by Gulf Arab nations, vehemently denied charges that it broke down the gates of the embassy.

Saudi Arabia dealt a death blow to the Arab League mission, which was under the constant guard of Assad loyalists who carefully cleansed scenes of brutal attacks on civilians and kept the delegates under surveillance.

Russia has been the main stumbling block to United Nations intervention, but meetings by some Arab League delegates with the Syrian opposition and the Gulf States’ call for "all possible pressure" on Damascus may turn the tide against Assad in the international body.

The violence continues to spread across the borders with Israel’s northern enemy-neighbors, and the IDF is on alert for trouble in southern Lebanon, which effectively is governed by the Syrian-Hizbullah axis. Lebanon claimed last week that Israel had built an illegal observation post.

Within in Syria, the government reported that “terrorists” again attacked a gas pipeline near the Lebanese border. Syria has turned the border zone into a huge field of landmines to prevent soldiers from deserting to Lebanon and to stop civilians from fleeing.

Assad’s regime is hanging on, and unconfirmed reports said that rebels prevented his wife from fleeing the country this week.

With the rebellion threatening the heart of Damascus, the regime "is looking weaker than at any point during the past 10 months", according to analysts quoted by the Washington Post.







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Fierce battles rage on around Syrian capital

Street battles raged on the doorstep of the Syrian capital on Monday, as President Bashar al-Assad's troops sought to consolidate their grip on suburbs rebel fighters had taken only a few miles from the center of Assad's power.

The insurgency has crept closer to Damascus. The suburbs, a string of mainly conservative Sunni Muslim towns known as al-Ghouta, are home to the bulk of Damascus's population. The rebel force said on Monday supplies of medicine and blood were running low in field hospitals, some established in mosques, and that advancing government forces were carrying out mass arrests



Activists and residents said Syrian troops now had control of Hamouriyeh, one of a cluster of districts where they have used armored vehicles and artillery to beat back rebels who came as close as eight kilometers (five miles) to Damascus.

An activist said the Free Syrian Army -- a force of military defectors with links to Syria's divided political opposition -- mounted scattered attacks on government troops who advanced through the district of Saqba, held by rebels just days ago.

“Street fighting has been raging since dawn,” he said, adding tanks were moving through a central avenue of the neighborhood. “The sound of gunfire is everywhere.”

The rebels said at least 15 people had been killed as they pulled back in Saqba and Kfar Batna. Activists have claimed a death toll of several dozen in three days of fighting in the districts, which have seen repeated protests against Assad's rule and crackdowns by troops on the 10-month-old uprising.

The escalating bloodshed prompted the Arab League to suspend the work of its monitors on Saturday. Arab foreign ministers, who have urged Assad to step down and make way for a government of national unity, will discuss the crisis on Feb. 5.

Syria's state news agency said “terrorists” blew up a gas pipeline, a frequent target during the uprising against Assad, and residents of the southern city of Deraa -- where unrest first erupted -- said army defectors and government troops were waging gun battles that left at least 20 dead, most of them government forces.

Syria restricts access to the country for journalists and the numbers could not be immediately verified.

Arab peace plan

Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby left for New York on Sunday where he will brief representatives of the UN Security Council on Tuesday to seek support for the Arab peace plan.

He will be joined by Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, whose country heads the League's committee charged with overseeing the Syrian crisis.

Elaraby said he hoped to overcome resistance from Beijing and Moscow over endorsing the Arab proposals.

On Monday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov Moscow first wanted to hear directly from the observers whom the Arab League sent -- a move likely to delay any vote:

“It would be logical, considering the complexity of this issue, for Security Council members to be able to study the recommendations and conclusions of the observer mission in detail,” the Interfax news agency quoted Gatilov as saying.

“Only after that would it be possible to count on a substantive discussion of this issue in the Security Council.”

A Syrian government official said the Arab League decision to suspend monitoring would “put pressure on [Security Council] deliberations with the aim of calling for foreign intervention and encouraging armed groups to increase violence.”

Assad blames the violence on foreign-backed militants. Activist groups based abroad acknowledge troops and security forces are being killed, and the state news agency SANA reported funerals for more than 50 security force members at the weekend.

After mass demonstrations against his rule erupted last spring, Assad launched a military crackdown. Growing numbers of army deserters and gunmen have joined the protesters in a country of 23 million people regarded as a pivotal state at the heart of the Middle East.

The insurgency has crept closer to the capital. The suburbs, a string of mainly conservative Sunni Muslim towns known as al-Ghouta, are home to the bulk of Damascus's population.

The rebel force said on Monday supplies of medicine and blood were running low in field hospitals, some established in mosques, and that advancing government forces were carrying out mass arrests.

The Damascus suburbs have seen large demonstrations demanding the removal of Assad, a member of the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam that has dominated the mostly Sunni Muslim country for the last five decades.

In Rankous, 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of Damascus by the Lebanese border, Assad's forces have killed at least 33 people in recent days in an attack to dislodge army defectors and insurgents, activists and residents said on Sunday.

Iran says Assad needs time

Iran, long Syria's key ally, said Assad must be given time to implement reforms.

Tehran at first wholeheartedly supported Assad's hardline stance against the popular protests. It has since qualified its backing, but it condemns what it calls foreign interference in the affairs of its main Arab ally.

“They have to have a free election, they have to have the right constitution, they have to allow different political parties to have their activities freely in the country. And this is what he has promised,” Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said.

“We think that Syria has to be given the choice of time so that by (that) time they can do the reforms.”

Syria has said it will hold a referendum on a new constitution soon, before a multi-party parliamentary election that has been much postponed. Under the present constitution, Assad's Baath party is “the leader of the state and society.”

France, which has been leading calls for stronger international action on Syria, said the Arab League decision highlighted the need to act.

The United Nations said in December more than 5,000 people had been killed in the protests and crackdown. Syria says more than 2,000 security force members have been killed by militants.

On Friday, the UN Security Council discussed a European-Arab draft resolution aimed at halting the bloodshed. Britain and France said they hoped to put it to a vote next week.

Russia joined China in vetoing a previous Western draft resolution in October, and has said it wants a Syrian-led political process, not “an Arab League-imposed outcome” or Libyan-style “regime change.”





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Britain and France to press for UN resolution on Syria

1/30/2012 - 12:55:09 PM
http://www.eecho.ie/news/world/britain-and-france-to-press-for-un-resolution-on-syria-537838.html

British and French Foreign Ministers are today heading to New York to press for a United Nations resolution aimed at halting the violence.


British Foreign Secretary William Hague and French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said they will attend UN talks scheduled for Tuesday.

Officials hope Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim and Arab League officials can persuade Russia and China to back a UN Security Council resolution.

Russia says it will not support any resolution which could enable foreign military intervention.





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Syria hits rebels hard as fighting escalates

Kareem Fahim, Ellen Barry
January 31, 2012 Read later
http://www.smh.com.au/world/syria-hits-rebels-hard-as-fighting-escalates-20120130-1qpmr.html

Damascus burns ... around 2,000 Syrian troops backed by
tanks launched an assault to retake suburbs from rebels.

DAMASCUS: Facing a growing threat on the doorstep of its capital city, the Syrian government struck out at its opponents in the rebellious eastern suburbs on Sunday, sending soldiers, tanks and armoured vehicles to vanquish pockets of rebel fighters in an escalation of the war.


Columns of black smoke rose from Al Ghouta, and heavy clashes were reported in nearby Harasta. A resident who fled Ein Tarma told the Associated Press that electricity and water had been cut to the area during fighting that had not let up since Saturday.

Video shot in Saqba showed soldiers shadowing a tank as it rolled through streets that just days ago were controlled with some swagger by rebel fighters. Activists in Saqba said they knew of at least nine people killed in the fighting on Sunday. That death toll could not be independently confirmed.

The violence was not confined to the capital's suburbs. A rebel commander in the town of Rankous, near the Lebanese border, said several houses there were burning after a day of shelling by government tanks.

''They will pay a high price for this,'' said the rebel commander, Abu Khaled.

The government's latest offensive came a day after the Arab League suspended a monitoring mission in Syria because of the intensifying violence, removing outside observers from around the country and in the process lifting a measure of restraint on a government intent on routing its opponents.

Arab League nations have been pushing the United Nations Security Council to endorse their plan for a political transition in Syria that calls for President Bashar al-Assad to hand over power to his deputy, and the formation of a unity government ahead of elections. Syria has condemned the plan, calling it foreign interference. The proposal has also run into resistance from Russia, one of Syria's last remaining allies.

On Sunday, Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, gave the strongest indication yet that his country would oppose the Arab plan, saying the insistence by Western and Arab nations that Mr Assad give up power was ''absolutely unforgivable'', and suggesting Russia might be willing to use its veto power to block a proposed Security Council resolution favouring it.

Mr Lavrov, who is on a tour of Asia-Pacific nations, said at a news conference in Brunei that the demand - which makes up the core of the draft resolution - was ''a rather irresponsible statement, because it attempts to undermine the chance to calm the situation'', according to remarks carried by the Russian Interfax news service.

Mr Lavrov expressed surprise and dissatisfaction with the decision to end the Arab League monitoring mission, which he called a ''useful instrument''. He has also said Russian officials planned to meet with Syrian opposition leaders in the coming days to urge them to negotiate with Mr Assad.

''We are trying to convince these forces that dialogue is the only path to normalisation,'' Mr Lavrov said in an interview with Japanese television. ''Unfortunately, several of our partners in the UN Security Council have taken the opposite position and are persuading the opposition not to enter a dialogue with the authorities. This is incitement.''

The general secretary of the Arab League, Nabil al-Araby, said he was hopeful Russia and China would change their positions and support the resolution.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/syria-h...g-escalates-20120130-1qpmr.html#ixzz1kwoMtzO0



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U.N. considers resolution amid
reports of heavy fighting in Syria


By the CNN Wire Staff
January 30, 2012 -- Updated 1209 GMT (2009 HKT)
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/30/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=wo_c1

NEW: The dead and wounded litter the streets of a neighborhood in Homs, an activist says

Gas pipeline is "sabotaged" by armed group, state-run media reports
The Security Council is taking up a resolution that calls on Bashar al-Assad to step down

The opposition reports heavy fighting between Syrian forces and rebels in Damascus suburbs


(CNN) -- The U.N. Security Council will take up a draft resolution this week that calls on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and transfer power.

The move follows news that the Arab League suspended a mission to monitor whether al-Assad was abiding by an agreement to end a brutal crackdown against anti-government protesters.


Arab League Secretary General Nabil el-Araby arrived Monday in New York where he was scheduled to deliver the monitoring mission's findings to the Security Council the following day.

The news came amid opposition reports of renewed fighting Monday between Syrian forces and the rebel Free Syria Army in suburbs of the capital city of Damascus, where Syria forces have been battling to take back neighborhoods in Saqba and Maleiha.

The country has seen a sharp increase in violence in recent weeks, with hundreds killed in clashes between government forces, rebels and anti-government protesters.

U.N. to discuss more sanctions on Syria It was that escalation of violence that led the Arab League to suspend its mission on Sunday.

Ali Erfan, senior advisor to the Arab League's secretary general, said Sunday that observer activity has been suspended, and all observers who were outside Damascus would be redeployed to the capital.

Some will leave the country, he said. Others will stay on for the moment in Damascus, but they will not be conducting any missions, he said.

Erfan did not have immediate details on how many monitors were leaving Syria or how many would stay in the country.

A day after opposition groups reported 64 people were killed in clashes with Syrian forces, the Local Coordination Committees of Syria -- a group that organizes anti-government protests and documents violence -- called on Syrians on Monday to remember all those killed.

"Please join us in observing a moment of silence as we remember the sacrifices of our fallen heroes, whose pure blood has saturated the earth of our beloved country," the group said in a statement.

CNN cannot independently verify or confirm opposition or government reports of those killed or wounded as access to the country is limited.

Meanwhile, the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency reported Monday that a gas pipeline extending from Homs to Banys near the Lebanese border was sabotaged by an "armed terrorist group." The news agency, which posted a banner on its website, did not specify what type of sabotage occurred at the pipeline.

Heavy fighting was reported in Saqba, where there were reports of shelling and gunfire, the LCC said. Smoke could be seen rising from the center of the city, the group said.

Complex, deadly fight in Syria

Syria apparently losing control of suburbs In the suburb of Maleiha, explosions were heard and its main roads were cut off by Syrian forces, the LCC said. Youths were burning tires in the city, the group said.

At least seven people were killed, including a Syrian soldier, in violence across Syria.

In the western Homs province, one person was killed and two were wounded in fighting in Rastan while one soldier was killed and several more were wounded in clashes with rebel forces in Qusour, the LCC said. In the provincial capital of Homs, a doctor was killed and 11 others were wounded in fighting in the neighborhood of al-Shamas, an opposition activist told CNN by telephone.

In the flashpoint city of Daraa, where the anti-government uprising began last year, four people were killed in clashes with security forces, the group said.

Heavy fighting also was reported between Syrian forces and the rebel army in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta, where al-Assad's forces were fighting to retake control of the city from rebel, the LCC said.

Fighting also was reported in the Homs neighborhood of al-Qusour where Syrian forces battled to take back the neighborhood from the rebel army and anti-government protesters, said the opposition activist, whose asked that his identity be withheld over a fear of government reprisal.

The dead and wounded littered the streets of the neighborhood, which was under siege, the activist said.

The United Nations last month estimated that more than 5,000 people have died since March, when the government launched a crackdown against demonstrators. Opposition groups estimate a higher death toll, with counts near or exceeding 7,000 people.

The opposition has blamed the deaths on government actions. The Syrian government says terrorists are responsible for the casualties.






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Monday, January 30, 2012

Russia seeks to slow UN pace on Syria action

Moscow: 52 minutes ago
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/INTNEWS_211820.html

Russia on Monday sought to avert a swift UN Security Council vote on a Western-Arab resolution on Syria and said it wanted to study recommendations from Arab observers before discussing a plan that calls for President Bashar al-Assad to cede power.


Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov spoke a day before Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby was to brief Security Council members to seek support for the Arab League plan to end 10 months of bloodshed in which more than 5,000 people have been killed.

Western powers Britain and France want the Security Council to vote next week on a draft resolution supporting the Arab League plan's call for Assad to step down. Elaraby has said he hopes to overcome resistance from Beijing and Moscow.

But Gatilov said recommendations from Arab monitors in Syria, led by Sudanese General Mohammed al-Dabi, should be presented to council members including Russia, which he said had not been informed of the mission's findings.

"It would be logical, considering the complexity of this issue, for Security Council members to be able to study the recommendations and conclusions of the observer mission in detail," the Interfax news agency quoted him as saying.

"Only after that would it be possible to count on a substantive discussion of this issue in the Security Council."

A permanent Security Council member with veto power, Russia has been increasingly isolated in support for Assad as the crackdown on pro-democracy protesters goes on.

Gatilov said on Friday the Western-Arab draft resolution was unacceptable in its current form and that an attempt to rush it to a vote would fail, signalling it could use its veto to block the proposal if it remains unchanged.

Assad's resignation must not be a precondition of a peace process in Syria, he said.

In October, Russia and China blocked a Western-backed draft resolution condemning Assad's government for its crackdown.

Moscow said that his opponents must share blame for the bloodshed and that the resolution could have led to Libya-style military intervention, which Russia says it will not allow.

Syria has been Russia's strongest footholds in the Middle East. It is a major client for Russian arms sales and hosts a naval maintenance facility on its Mediterranean coast that is the Russia's only military base abroad. – Reuters






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Syrian authorities agree to Moscow talks - Russia

30 Jan 2012 13:13
Source: reuters // Reuters
http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/syrian-authorities-agree-to-moscow-talks-russia

MOSCOW, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The Syrian authorities have agreed to take part in talks in Moscow mediated by Russia, and Russia hopes the Syrian opposition will also agree take part, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday.


Moscow, a permanent United Nations Security Council member with veto powers, has offered to host the talks in an effort to end bloodshed since protests began against President Bashar al-Assad's rule 10 months ago.

A senior member of the Syrian opposition council said separately that no invitation had been received from Moscow and that it would be refused anyway.






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Report:
Assad's family attempts to escape Syria


By JPOST.COM STAFF01/30/2012 03:45
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=255681

Syrian security forces attempted to smuggle President Bashar Assad's family out of the country, sources from the Syrian opposition told Al-Masry-Al-Youm Sunday evening, according to a report published by the Egyptian daily.


According to the report, security forces tried to aid the president's wife Asma Assad, to escape via Damascus, along with his sons, mother and cousin.

The sources told Al-Masry-Al-Youm that "a convoy of official vehicles was seen heading to the airport in Damascus," before they were intercepted by brigades of army defectors.

According to the source, there was a heavy exchange of fire, which prevented the family's escape, who then returned to the presidential palace.






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:siren::shkr::siren:
Iranians were armed with sniper rifles - Deputy FSA commander

28/01/2012
By Caroline Akoum
http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&id=28274


Beirut, Asharq Al-Awsat – Free Syrian Army​

[FSA] Deputy Commander Colonel Malik al-Kurdi informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the al-Farouq Brigade of the FSA captured 7 Iranians involved in the suppression of Syrian citizens in the city of Homs last week. He revealed that 5 of the Iranians are “military specialists belonging to the Iranian Republic Guard”, whilst the other two are civilians.

The Deputy FSA commander told Asharq Al-Awsat that “the operation to capture this group took place after an FSA reconnaissance patrol observed a group affiliated to the Syrian army – with armed escorts – scouting the Bab al-Seba area of Homs.”


He said “this operation was undertaken after the al-Farouq Brigade noticed this group and their armed escorts were acting suspiciously in Bab el-Seba” adding “they were armed with automatic weapons and sniper rifles.”

Colonel al-Kurdi revealed that “a firefight broke out between the [Iranian] group’s armed escorts and the al-Farouq Brigade, but they were able to arrest 7 members of this group in Bab al-Seba…which was later subject to heavy bombardment from the Syrian regime. This is why we transferred them outside of Homs, for fear that the Syrian security services would launch operations against civilians [in Homs].”

Al-Kurdi claimed that these Iranians had taken part in the brutal crackdown launched by the al-Assad regime against the Syrian protesters. A video showing the 7 Iranians was released by the FSA yesterday, the video showed the captives’ travel documents, whilst the deputy FSA commander informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the Iranian’s did not have Syrian visas or work permits or any other indication as to how and indeed when they arrived in the country.

In the short video, one of the captives, speaking Farsi, reportedly confesses “I am Sajjad Amirian, a member of the Revolutionary Guards of the Iranian armed forces. I am a member of the team in charge of cracking down on protesters in Syria, and we received our orders directly from the security division of the Syrian Air Force in Homs.”

He adds “I urge Mr. Khamenei to work on securing our release and return to our homes.”

In light of this, the opposition Syrian National Council [SNC] on Saturday accused Iran of “participation” in the Syrian crackdown on protesters, and called on Tehran to stop aiding the Damascus regime.

SNC member Samir Neshar, speaking to a press conference in Istanbul, said “the SNC condemns the participation of the Iranian regime in killing Syrians who are demanding freedom and urges it to stop taking part in quelling the Syrian revolution in order to protect the relations between the two people.”

The Iranian State News agency IRNA did not include any news about the arrest of Iranian soldiers in Syria; however a report claimed that “11 Iranian pilgrims travelling by road to Damascus were kidnapped by an unknown group”. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast was quoted as saying “We call on the Syrian government to use all means…to release the Iranian nationals.”






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30 January 2012, Monday

ABDULLAH BOZKURT

Risk at Turkey’s borders with Iran

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-270034-risk-at-turkeys-borders-with-iran.html

Mindful of Iranian attempts to secretly use Turkish soil to provide arms and munitions to illicit terrorist groups as well as to repressive regimes like Syria, Turkey has increased security precautions at its border gates with Iran, the world’s “most active state sponsor of terrorism,” according to the US State Department.

The intelligence assessment that has increasingly isolated Tehran and may speed up its efforts to procure dual-use industrial goods -- products and technologies normally used for civilian purposes but which may have military applications -- has led to further scrutiny of Iranian cargo by customs officials in Turkey.


Because of the sensitivity of the issue with the neighboring country, which is an important energy supplier to Turkey, Ankara is avoiding making public evidence collected concerning Iranian attempts to breach UN Security Council decisions imposing embargos on Tehran, despite being required to report any infraction to the monitoring committee at the UN.

In an interview with Today’s Zaman, Customs and Trade Minister Hayati Yazýcý sounded very determined to overhaul the border gates with more manpower and modern equipment in order to cut the waiting time at the border gates and to be able to discover more easily contraband hidden in cargo containers. When I talked to him in October, he said his ministry was working closely with the US Customs and Border Protection Agency to beef up security measures employed at Turkish border crossing points. He also disclosed that intensive in-service training programs in cooperation with Turkey’s allies were provided to Turkish customs officials to help them identify emerging threats at borders.

With assistance from German and British customs authorities, Turkey is developing a “risk management” program at the Customs Ministry to determine threats posed at the gates. The program is financed by the EU with 16.6 million euros and is expected to be completed by the end of this year. The twinning project aims to bring expertise, know-how and technology, including mobile scanners, from German and British agencies to their Turkish counterpart. Yazýcý was enthusiastic that the new systems and technical equipment the ministry is to acquire will boost the capacity of the Customs Security System (GÜMSÝS) Project, which includes, among others, a vehicle tracking system, a nuclear material detection system and a container scanning system to monitor and prevent illegal commodity, vehicle and human trafficking.

A security surveillance system for all vehicles entering the country to allow real-time monitoring at the Ankara Command Center throughout their stay in the country paid off recently. Using the monitoring system earlier in January four Iranian trucks were stopped in Turkey’s Kilis province on the border with Syria and were found to be carrying raw materials used for making ballistic missiles. Turkey intercepted an arms shipment from Iran to Syria in August and in March last year and seized the cargo of an Iranian plane full of weapons bound for Syria because the shipment violated UN sanctions.

Yazýcý lamented on the fact that the inspection rate in high-risk areas is as high as 40 percent, way above the average in many European countries, which hampers legal trade. Stressing that the figure reflects Turkey’s particular needs in a very tough neighborhood, Yazýcý remarked that he has to balance the need for a speedy clearance of commercial goods with the need to be very vigilant on illegal goods transiting Turkish border gates. He emphasized that Turkish customs enforcement officials are very careful about dual-use goods and identify them using inspection and expertise. However, he criticized that some countries are not as sensitive as Turkey when it comes to dual-purpose products. “This is a gray area. There are various unfair practices in use in different places. While we were preventing them [certain cargo] from proceeding to Iran, other countries, including ones in Europe shipped them regularly,” he underlined.

The government adopted a decree in the force of law on Sept. 26 last year giving an expanded mandate to the Customs and Trade Ministry to take the necessary security measures at its border gates. The ministry hired 1,400 personnel just last year to address understaffing problems at the border gates and plans to hire 800 more. It set up “rapid response teams” and deployed them at the eastern border gates, including Gürbulak, the main customs point for traffic between Iran and Turkey on the northeastern border. Gürbulak was modernized in 2003 using the successful “build-operate-transfer” model in cooperation with the International Transporters’ Association of Turkey (UND). A new agreement was signed in August 2011 with UND to further expand and modernize the border gate. Though the UND handles commercial traffic, the security and customs procedures are still controlled by customs officials. The gate is equipped with a large X-ray machine for vehicles and airport-style scanning machines for passengers’ luggage. It checks all cargo for radiation and hazardous inorganic and organic materials.

Another crossing point between Turkey and Iran is located at Kapýköy to the east of Van province, which allows both passenger and freight trains on a weekly basis to pass through. On April 16, 2011, the Kapiköy gate was expanded to allow vehicle crossing as well. It links to Razi town in Iran’s west Azerbaijan province. The gate is in the process of modernization, with the same model being used that is employed at Gürbulak. The EU allocated 3.9 million euros to Turkey to equip this border gate with scanning capabilities for train wagons. The project is at the tendering stage and will be completed within the first half of 2012. In May 2007, when a terrorist attack derailed a Turkish train carrying containers that passed through Kapýköy gate, Turkish security officials were surprised to find Iranian arms, including mortar shells, RPG barrels, rifle rounds and bombs en route to Syria. It prompted the delivery of a Turkish protest note to Iran.

The most worrisome crossing point, however, is the Esendere border crossing in Yüksekova town in the southeastern province of Hakkari, which connects to Sero, Orumeyeh on the Iranian side. It was opened to allow mostly border trade between local residents on either side. It is, however, in poor shape, severely understaffed with no modern scanning equipment available on site. The gate is manned only by customs officers who are not allowed to carry guns and are under constant threat from the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Customs employees even petitioned to the ministry detailing the miserable working conditions at the gate and how the PKK is using it to smuggle almost anything with impunity. Since the area is under the jurisdiction of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), the police have no presence there. The TSK has also refused to set up a checkpoint, citing security concerns.

On a daily basis, the 50-some cars passing through the gate without any security checks represents the weakest link in border security along the Iranian border. The PKK even collects a toll on each passing car and levies illegal taxes on merchants bringing commodities from Iran, earning over $1 million a year from this criminal activity. The PKK’s activities at the gate were also detailed in an indictment filed by a Van prosecutor in the case of the Kurdish Communities Union (KCK), an umbrella organization for the PKK. Intelligence reports warned that Iran might have used the PKK as a contract carrier to ship contraband through this border gate. The fourth border gate is scheduled to open at the Maku crossing near Dilucu, Iðdýr. The agreement was signed on Sept.16, 2010 in Ýstanbul, but the domestic procedures on both sides have not been finalized yet. It is expected to be opened in 2013.

Border gates with Iran represent one of Turkey’s most important trade links extending to not only Iran but to Central Asia, Pakistan and other countries in the East. Turkey cannot afford to suffocate transit trade along the Iranian border by bottlenecking the crossing points. That does not mean, however, Turkey will step back and watch as Iran tries to smuggle all kinds of banned materials through Turkish territory. Ankara has raised the alert level with regard to Iranian cargo by land, sea and air and remains vigilant, with improved intelligence and surveillance over Iranian activities. It should, however, speed up efforts to modernize its border gates with state-of-the-art technological equipment and address any shortcomings urgently in order to better fight against illegal shipments coming to and from Iran.








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Should oil be used as a weapon?

With the US, the EU and Iran changing the rules, Arab
oil producing states may also have to consider their options


By Linda S. Heard, Special to Gulf News
Published: 00:00 January 31, 2012
http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/should-oil-be-used-as-a-weapon-1.973540

Saudi Arabia and neighbouring oil-producing Gulf countries wield massive clout. If they so choose, together with Iraq, they can hold world economies to ransom by either reducing production to a trickle, selecting their customers or sealing the Strait of Hormuz.

Moreover, imagine a scenario whereby Opec, that controls 79 per cent of the planet’s crude oil reserves, became politicised and placed itself under the umbrella of China, Russia — or both. In that event, its members — Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela — would be greatly empowered to solve issues close to the hearts of all those countries, such as the formation of a Palestinian state. This might sound outlandish but it’s exactly the state of play that the US and its European allies fear the most.


There’s a precedent. In response to Washington’s decision to supply weapons to Israel during the 1973 War, Opec’s Arab members partnered with Egypt, Syria and Tunisia launched an oil embargo to twist the Nixon administration’s arm to pressure Israel to give up occupied Arab land. Supplies to the US ‘the principal hostile country’ were cut off entirely. The move shocked global markets and prompted lingering worldwide inflation. Oil prices quadrupled within a year.

Even America’s man, the Shah, was gung-ho telling the New York Times, “Of course [the world price of oil] is going to rise…You [Western nations] increased the price of wheat you sell us by 300 per cent and the same for sugar and cement...; You buy our crude oil and sell it back to us, refined as petrochemicals, at a hundred times the price you’ve paid to us... It’s only fair that, from now on, you should pay more for oil. Let’s say 10 times more.”

But, in the event today’s oil producers were to flex their muscle bringing the West to its knees, the potential for a Third World War would rise exponentially. It’s no coincidence that the US and its allies haven’t flinched from intervening militarily in oil-producing countries under various pretexts while, according to the neoconservative manifesto signed-up to by numerous Bush administration figures, there were several other oil-producing nations on the ‘New American Century’s’ hit-list. (And, by the way, don’t think those hawkish neocons are out of the picture; they’re currently hanging on the coattails of front-running Republican wannabe presidents Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich as advisers).

Since 1973, Opec has refrained from using the oil card for political purposes. In 2002, Saudi foreign policy adviser Adel Al Jubeir said “Oil is not a weapon. Oil is not a tank”; in 2009, when Israel was mercilessly hammering the Gaza Strip, the Saudi Foreign Minister ruled out using oil to end the conflict saying, “Oil is not a weapon. You can’t reverse a conflict by using oil.” Indeed, there seems to be a general consensus among Arab oil producers that as guardians of much of the world’s supplies they have an ethical responsibility not to use oil as a tool of manipulation.

There is a moral argument, therefore, for saying that oil should not be used as a weapon in an attempt to bring Iran to heel. There are also a number of practical arguments why this is a bad idea. In the first place, it simply won’t work; those imposing the sanctions on Iran’s oil industry/exports — the US and the EU — have more to lose than Iran when their economies are struggling to stave off recession and when Iran’s major customers, such as Beijing and New Delhi, have no intention of following suit.

Indeed, India plans to circumvent sanctions on Iranian banks by paying for its oil in gold bricks. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davotoglu has condemned the EU decision and says Ankara will not institute anti-Iranian sanctions without a UN Security Council resolution, which is unlikely to manifest itself due to objections from veto-holding China and Russia.

Some analysts believe China and Russia will ultimately cave in, but Russia is showing a different face today from that of the last decade when it reluctantly went along with the White House on Afghanistan and Iraq.

In recent days, Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has accused the US of hegemonic ambitions saying, the US “wants to control everything...sometimes I have the impression that the United States does not need allies, that it needs vassals.” This time, Moscow may be up for a fight to protect its own economic interests and expand its sphere of influence. It’s significant that Russia is standing firm with Syria’s Bashar Al Assad. Earlier this month three Russian warships and an anti-submarine vessel paid a six-day visit to a Syrian port. Russia continues to supply Syria with weapons and has just signed a deal to deliver 36 combat jets to Damascus. Russia is just as protective of Iran with which it enjoys lucrative cooperation.

Tehran has also crossed the line by threatening to set fire to Gulf oil fields in the event it comes under attack and, most importantly, to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping so, you could say, that it has virtually invited retaliation in kind. Oil should not be a weapon, but if the US, the EU and Iran have changed the rules then perhaps it’s time that Arab oil-producing states to get on with the programme to compete in this increasingly dirty and dangerous game.







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:shkr:
GCC 'has plans against Hormuz closure'

Kuwait: 21 minutes ago
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/DEF_211838.html


Coastguards and naval forces of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have contingency plans for a possible attempt by Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a Kuwaiti maritime official said on Monday.

Five of the six GCC members - Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Kuwait - rely on the world's most important energy shipping lane being open to export most of their oil or gas.


Tehran has threatened to close the narrow shipping lane between Oman, the only GCC member which does not depend on Hormuz, and Iran if Western sanctions aimed at starving Iran's disputed nuclear programme of funds stop it from selling oil.

The GCC members, which also rely on the four-mile-wide (6.4km) channel being open to import food for their growing populations, has now drawn up a contingency plan in case Iran acts on its threats.

"Exporting oil or importing goods and cargo through Hormuz is a main concern for the GCC," Commander Mubarak Ali Al-Sabah chief of maritime operations at Kuwait's Coast Guard told Reuters in an interview.

"The GCC has a plan as a body - not just Kuwait separately or Bahrain or Saudi Arabia - we have a plan we just hope that everything stays safe," Al-Sabah said, without giving details of the plans.

"Awareness and understanding of the consequences of it has increased," he said. "We have plans how to deal with this but didn't do field exercises on it."

Al-Sabah said the planning included coordinating both between coastguards and navies of GCC countries and with Western naval forces patrolling the area -- including US, Australian and French navies.

Kuwaiti and Iranian coastguards hold regular meetings on how to manage their shared maritime border, with the next one scheduled for next month.

"We don't go into politics or speak about other issues just what concerns the coastguards and how we can work it out," he said.

Oil tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated at around 16 million barrels per day (bpd), or just under a fifth of global oil supplies. A new pipeline from the UAE's oilfields to the Gulf of Oman could carry most of the Opec oil producer's exports if Hormuz were to be blocked.

But even a brief disruption to shipping could stop most of the oil exported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and Iraq from leaving the Gulf, along with liquefied natural gas (LNG) from leading supplier Qatar.

In December, the US Fifth Fleet said it would not tolerate any disruption of traffic in Hormuz but analysts say Iran might be able to hinder traffic transiting the Strait by scattering mines in it.

"In any navy plan that exists there would be plans for swift coordination to de-mine areas that might have been mined... Or act in coordination preemptively or reactively to prevent Iranian small vessels disrupting shipping," Christian Le Miere, research fellow for naval forces and maritime security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.

Earlier this month, Iran's foreign minister warned Arab neighbours not to side with the United States in the escalating dispute over Tehran's nuclear activities which the West says includes weapons development and Tehran insists are limited to electricity production. - Reuters







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IAEA visit:
It's showtime for Iran's nuclear denials


The IAEA team's three-day visit marks the first opportunity
for Tehran to rebut allegations of a covert Iranian nuclear
weapons program that were made public in November.


By Scott Peterson, Staff writer / January 30, 2012
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Midd...eds/world+(Christian+Science+Monitor+|+World)

The high-profile visit from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presents Iran with the first formal opportunity to rebut specific allegations of past weapons-related work since they were made public in an agency report in November.

The Islamic Republic has for years dismissed the documents those allegations are based upon as forgeries created by hostile intelligence agencies, aimed at besmirching a peaceful energy program. But now that talk of a US-Israeli war against Iran has gained momentum, in concert with an array of crippling sanctions, Iran says it will address those allegations.


"We are very optimistic about the outcome of the IAEA delegation's visit to Iran.... Their questions will be answered during this visit," Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said yesterday.

"We have nothing to hide and Iran has no clandestine [nuclear] activities," he said. "Of course I do not mean that a miracle will happen overnight, but you know a long journey starts with the first step."

Officials sought to reinforce that positive message today, by stating that the IAEA mission was there at Tehran's invitation, and was “in fact a proof of Iran’s good intention,” said senior lawmaker Parviz Sorouri, according to Fars News.

The stakes are high for the inspectors' visit. The next IAEA report is due within weeks, and in the past month the US and European Union have both imposed unprecedented sanctions on Iran that target its central bank and the lifeblood of its economy, its oil exports, in a bid to curb Iran's nuclear work.

Protesters turn out for IAEA arrival at Tehran airport

The head of the IAEA team in Iran says their aim is to "resolve all the outstanding issues with Iran." Those include weapons-related studies – their "systematic" nature apparently halted in late 2003, according to the IAEA – which range from high-explosives testing to reengineering the warhead of a Shahab-3 missile to fit a specific, possibly nuclear, payload.

"In particular we hope that Iran will engage with us on our concerns regarding the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program," the IAEA deputy director for safeguards, Herman Nackaerts, said before leaving Vienna on Sunday.

A group of Iranians – of a type often associated with pro-regime basiji ideologues, a few covering their faces and carrying placards in English which read "Nuclear energy is our right" – turned out at the Imam Khomeini airport for the IAEA team's arrival Sunday.

They held portraits of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, the latest of at least four nuclear scientists assassinated in Iran over two years. Senior figures in the regime accuse Israel's Mossad of the killings, and the IAEA of divulging information about its nuclear specialists that resulted in their deaths.

Ali Larijani, the speaker of parliament, on Sunday told the IAEA to conduct its work in a "logical ... technical" manner.

"This visit is a test for the IAEA. The route for further cooperation will be open if the team carries out its duties professionally," said Mr. Larijani. "Otherwise, if the IAEA turns into a tool [to pressure Iran], then Iran will have no choice but to consider a new framework in its ties with the agency."

Formal nuclear talks between Iran and world powers broke down a year ago in Istanbul. Both sides now say they want them to resume them, but no date or even agenda has been established.

What is known about Iran nuclear program

The November IAEA report was billed as a "game changer" before it was published. Based on more than 1,000 pages of data acquired from the United States in 2005, the nuclear watchdog agency said it had "serious concerns" about Iran's work – especially some modeling and other critical design work it says may have continued at least until 2009.

But former IAEA inspectors have questioned the veracity of the documents, saying that some once dismissed as unreliable appear to have been recycled to step up accusations against Iran.

The IAEA report confirmed – as has every quarterly IAEA safeguards report on Iran for nearly a decade – that the agency detected no diversion of nuclear material for military purposes, and that Iran's known nuclear facilities and uranium enrichment remain under strict IAEA watch.

Separately, two US National Intelligence Estimates on Iran, the latest in February 2011, have concluded that Iran halted weapons-related work in late 2003, and has so far neither resumed such work, nor made a decision to do so.

"Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No," Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told CBS earlier this month.

Speaking again to CBS yesterday, however, Mr. Panetta said the US was watching Iran closely, suggesting that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in a year if it chose to do so – though it might be another two or three years before Iran had a missile or other delivery vehicle for such a bomb. "If ... we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon, then we will take whatever steps are necessary to stop them," he told 60 Minutes.

The IAEA chief Yukiya Amano has said that in 2012, Iran is "the most important" issue on his agenda.

"I am fully committed to working constructively with Iran and I trust that Iran will approach our forthcoming discussions in an equally constructive spirit," Mr. Amano told the IAEA board in Vienna on Jan. 19.

Higher-enriched uranium to be used in 'coming months'

Despite the increasing pressure, it has been largely business as usual for Iran, which is planning to unveil new military equipment in ceremonies leading up to the 33-year anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Feb. 11.

And although UN Security Council resolutions require Iran to halt all enrichment activity until it resolves IAEA concerns, Salehi on Monday said that Iran in "coming months" would turn its growing stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium into fuel for its small medical reactor in Tehran – a difficult step that would mark significant technical know-how.

Though still far from the 90 percent required for any weapon, the material is higher than the 3.5 percent low-enriched uranium which makes up the bulk of Iran’s efforts.

Today, Iran's English-language PressTV made little mention of the IAEA team in Iran, instead topping its news with video footage of heavy-handed police arrests of hundreds of Occupy Wall Street protesters in Oakland, CA.

Those protesters "burned the American flag," PressTV reported. It began another news item about Mr. Panetta's statement yesterday, that all options were on the table regarding Iran's nuclear program, with the words: "The US has once again threatened Iran...."







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maric

Short but deadly
Thanks Dutch for all your hard work. I don't know whether to cry at whats happening or rejoice at the fact that The Savior will be here soon. All the signs are lining up.
 
Thanks Dutch for all your hard work. I don't know whether to cry at whats happening or rejoice at the fact that The Savior will be here soon. All the signs are lining up.

If the L-rd is coming; I hope he comes quick; or else thar's a gonna be a lot of ][ellish days we'll all experience.... And sooner then I like to think about.

As it is; I kinda know what the captain of the Titanic felt like; just as his ship slipped beneath the waves....And DESPONDANT is a "poor description."
 
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Gunfire 'everywhere':
:shkr:
Street battles rage in Damascus suburbs


By msnbc.com news services
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_new...where-street-battles-rage-in-damascus-suburbs


Updated at 7:40 a.m. ET:

Street battles raged at the gates of the Syrian capital on Monday as President Bashar Assad's troops sought to consolidate their grip on suburbs that rebel fighters had taken only a few miles from the center of government power. Syrian forces also heavily shelled the restive city of Homs.

Russia, a U.N. Security Council member and one of Syria's few allies, said President Bashar Assad's government agreed to talks in Moscow to end the Syrian crisis, but a major opposition body rejected any dialogue with him, demanding he step down.

The new fighting and Russian diplomacy came as the Arab League and France prepared to lobby the Security Council to act on a peace plan that would remove Assad from power, in a bid to staunch the flow of blood from Syria's attempt to crush a popular uprising and armed insurgency against Assad.


Activists and residents said Syrian troops now had control of Hamouriyeh, one of several districts where they have used armored vehicles and artillery to beat back rebels who came as close as 5 miles to Damascus.

An activist said the Free Syrian Army - a force of military defectors with links to Syria's divided political opposition - mounted scattered attacks on government troops who advanced through the district of Saqba, held by rebels just days ago.

"Street fighting has been raging since dawn," he said, adding tanks were moving through a central avenue of the neighborhood. "The sound of gunfire is everywhere."

Updated at 4:58 a.m. ET:

Troops seized eastern suburbs of Damascus from rebels late on Sunday, opposition activists said, after two days of fighting only a few miles from President Bashar Assad's center of power.

"The Free Syrian Army has made a tactical withdrawal," an activist named Kamal told Reuters by phone from the eastern al-Ghouta area on the edge of the capital. "Regime forces have re-occupied the suburbs and started making house-to-house arrests."

A spokesman for the Free Syrian Army of defectors fighting Assad's forces appeared to confirm that account.

"Tanks have gone in but they do not know where the Free Syrian Army is. We are still operating close to Damascus," said Maher al-Naimi, who spoke to Reuters from Turkey.

Meanwhile, Syria's state news agency reported Monday that a "terrorist" group had blown up a gas pipeline.

The rising bloodshed added urgency to Arab and Western diplomatic efforts to end the 10-month conflict.

Checkpoints

In the past two weeks, army dissidents have become more visible, seizing several suburbs on the eastern edge of Damascus and setting up checkpoints where masked men wearing military attire and wielding assault rifles stop motorists and protect anti-regime protests.

Their presence so close to the capital is astonishing in tightly controlled Syria and suggests the Assad regime may either be losing control or setting up a trap for the fighters before going on the offensive.
•Outside Syria's capital, suburbs look like a war zone

Activists said earlier on Sunday soldiers had moved into the suburbs at dawn, along with at least 50 tanks and other armored vehicles. At least 19 civilians and rebel fighters were killed in that initial attack, they said.





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BREWER

Veteran Member
Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.debka.com/article/21693/

Assad contains Syrian uprising for now, with credits for Russia and Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis January 30, 2012, 1:26 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Bashar Assad Syrian uprising Syrian army Iran Russia Arab League Hizballah

Syrian tanks occupy northern rebel center of Deir al-Zour

Ten months after the Syrian people launched an uprising against its ruler, Bashar Assad, if not yet safe in the saddle, has recovered the bulk of his army's support and his grip on most parts of the country

Protesters have mostly been pushed into tight corners in the flashpoint towns and villages, especially in the north, hemmed in by troops and security forces loyal to the president.

Monday, Jan. 30, Syrian forces were close to purging the suburbs and villages around Damascus of rebel fighters. The operation began Sunday with 2,000 troops backed by tanks and armored personnel carriers. Six soldiers were killed when their vehicle blew up on a roadside bomb near Sahnaya, east of the capital.

The rebel Free Syrian Army and opposition groups continue to report heavy fighting in the Damascus area, and especially the international airport where they claim to have prevented Assad's wife and children from fleeing the country. However, military watchers do not confirm either the fighting or the Assad family's attempted flight.

While both sides spin propaganda, the extreme hyperbole of opposition claims attests to their hard straits and the Syrian president's success in weathering their efforts and the huge sacrifices in blood paid by the people (estimated at 8,000 dead and tens of thousands injured) to oust him.

Having got rid of the Arab League monitoring mission, which gave up in despair of halting the savage bloodbath, Assad will shrug off the Arab-Western backed motion put before the UN Security Council Tuesday, Jan. 30, calling on him to step down and hand power to his vice president Farouk a-Shara. He will treat it as yet another failed effort by the combined Arab-Western effort to topple his regime.

The conflict is not over. More ups and downs may still be to come and there are signs of sectarian war evolving. But for now, Assad's survival is of crucial relevance in seven Middle East arenas:

1. The Tehran-Damascus-Hizballah bloc is strengthened, joined most recently by Iraq;


2. Iran chalks up a first-class strategic achievement for counteracting the US and the Saudi-led Gulf Arab emirates' presentation of the Islamic regime as seriously weighed down under by the crushing burden of crushing international sanctions imposed to halt its drive for a nuclear bomb.

3. Hizballah has won a chance to recover from the steep slide of its fortunes in Lebanon. The Pro-Iranian Lebanese Shiite group stands to regain the self-assurance which ebbed during Assad's hard times against massive dissidence, re-consolidate its bonds with Tehran, Damascus and Baghdad and rebuild its political clout in Beirut.


4. It is hard to calculate the enormous extent of the damage Saudi Arabia and Turkey have suffered from their colossal failure in Syria. The Palestinians too have not emerged unscathed.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and their security agencies, which invested huge sums in the Syrian rebellion's removal of the Assad regime, were trounced by Syria's security and intelligence services and the resources Iran provided to keep Bashar Assad afloat.

The Arab League, which for the first time tried its hand at intervening in an Arab uprising by sending observers into Syrian trouble spots to cut down the violence, watched impotently as those observers ran for their lives. Assad for his part first accepted then ignored the League's peace plan.

Turkey, too, after indicating its military would step across the border to support the Syrian resistance and giving the FSA bases of operation, backed off for the sake of staying on good terms with Iran.

5. Russia and China have gained credibility in the Middle East and points against the United States by standing up for Assad and pledging their veto votes against any strong UN Security Council motions against him. Moscow's arms sales and naval support for the Assad regime and China's new military and economic accords with Persian Gulf emirates have had the effect of pushing the United States from center stage of the Arab Revolt, held in the Egyptian and Libyan revolutions, to the sidelines of Middle East action.

6. The Syrian ruler has confounded predictions by Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak that he can't last more than a few weeks. His survival and the cohesion of his armed forces have contributed to the tightening of the Iranian military noose around Israel.

The Syrian army was in sustained operation for almost a year without breaking and suffered only marginal defections. It is still in working shape with valuable experience under its belt in rapid deployment between battlefronts. Syria, Iran and Hizballah have streamlined the cooperation among their armies and their intelligence arms.

7. The Palestinian rivals, Fatah and Hamas, have again put the brakes on the on-again, off-again reconciliation after it was galvanized by Hamas' decision to create some distance between Iran and the embattled Syrian regime. Seeing Assad still in place, Hamas' Gaza prime minister Ismail Haniyeh will visit Tehran this week and Meshaal may delay his departure from the Syrian capital.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.thenational.ae/thenation...llegiance-is-the-issue-for-muslim-brotherhood

In the Gulf, allegiance is the issue for Muslim Brotherhood

Hassan Hassan
Jan 30, 2012

Much has been made of the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt since the fall of Hosni Mubarak. After decades of marginalisation, the Brotherhood is back, stronger than ever. Beyond Egypt, and in the Gulf in particular, however, it is a much different story.

There is no single explanation of the Brotherhood’s history in the Gulf because each country has had different experiences and different ways of dealing with it. But any examination begins with Saudi Arabia, which has gone through a cycle of pragmatic, mutually beneficial relations with the Brotherhood punctuated by periods of hostility.

In the mid-1930s, the Brotherhood’s founder, Hassan Al Banna, made a Haj visit to the kingdom, marking the beginning of relatively close relations with King Abdulaziz. But 12 years later, that relationship imploded when a Brotherhood-affiliated group assassinated Yemen’s Imam Yahya Hamidaddin.

Where the Brotherhood saw an opportunity in a new Yemen to spread their movement across the region, Saudi Arabia saw a threat. The kingdom cut ties with the organisation, but not with individual members. The Yemeni uprising, which failed after 26 days, also brought the house of Al Saud closer to the monarchs in Egypt.

The relationship changed again with the rise of Gamal Abdel Nasser and pan-Arabism. From the mid-1950s to the early 1970s, the rivalry between Riyadh and Cairo, as each sought regime change in the other, saw a resumption of the Saudi-Brotherhood alliance against the Egyptian military regime.

At the same time, the forces of communism, pan-Arabism and religious extremism were starting to take root within Saudi society. The kingdom used the Muslim Brotherhood, whose members had experience debating communists and pan-Arabists while offering a less extreme religious discourse, as a counterweight.

During this period, the Brotherhood flourished in the kingdom and began to spread its ideology across the wider Gulf, particularly through its presence in Mecca during the Haj season. By the early 1960s, students from the Gulf who had joined the organisation while at university in Egypt were starting to return to their home countries.

These former students, as well as Egyptians who came to the Gulf as teachers, spread the ideology in the educational institutions. By the early 1970s, the organisation had branches in almost every Gulf state and had become increasingly more active and outspoken, especially after the 1979 revolution in Iran.

There were sporadic purges of education systems, but it was not until the mid-1990s when there was a systematic shift against Brotherhood-related groups. In 1994, Omani authorities arrested more than 300 people, eventually trying 131 for their alleged membership in a “subversive group”, conspiracy to subvert national unity, and the misuse of Islam. Two defendants were sentenced to death, although those sentences were later commuted to prison terms, while the others received three to 15 years in prison.

In the UAE, Brotherhood members, particularly in the education sector, were given a choice of either renouncing the group, or finding jobs outside the Education Ministry and refraining from promoting the ideology.

A policy of “de-Ikhwanification” (from the word Ikhwan for Brotherhood) of the education system has been in force since 1994. In the process, hundreds of expatriate Brotherhood members or sympathisers have been deported. Just last month, UAE authorities revoked the citizenship of six members of a Muslim Brotherhood-linked organisation for their involvement in “acts threatening the national security of the UAE through their connection with suspicious regional and international organisations and personalities”.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Qatar dissolved its organisation in 1999 and advised its counterpart in the UAE to do the same. In the UAE, many have since renounced their membership although others still remain in conflict with the state. Meanwhile in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, the Brotherhood’s presence has been undermined by Salafis.

Two issues have made confrontation with the Gulf states inevitable. The first is the Brotherhood’s influence within education institutions and its opposition to “westernised” education. In the UAE, for example, the group campaigned successfully to impose gender segregation in universities. They also unsuccessfully opposed a plan to teach English and maths during students’ foundation year.

The second point is the requirement for Gulf members to pledge allegiance to a figurehead in Egypt, currently the eighth general guide and nominal leader of the Brotherhood, Mohammed Badi. This pledge is seen as disloyal to their countries of citizenship. According to Al Mesbar Studies and Research Centre, authorities are unclear about the nature of this allegiance and members also give inconsistent accounts.

Despite alliances with powerful individuals in Gulf countries, alliances that survived the crackdown since the 1990s, the Muslim Brotherhood has not established an unfettered presence in the region. Experience has created a deep distrust between the Gulf states and the organisation.

In Kuwait, where the group has a relatively strong presence, Sheikh Soud Al Nasser Al Sabah accused it of conspiring with Saddam Hussein after the Iraqi invasion. In 2004, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz (now the crown prince) described the organisation as the “source of all problems”. Many Gulf intellectuals have also been critical of the organisation for its shifting relations with countries in the region.

The organisation is witnessing a sharp decline in the Gulf as countries follow more systematic regulations to prevent its spread and to monitor financial flows. But its political presence in Egypt may lead the Brotherhood to seek better relations for pragmatic reasons rather than attempting to spread its ideology.

hhassan@thenational.ae

On Twitter: hhassan140
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use......
http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/editorial/a-leadership-crisis-as-libya-falls-apart

A leadership crisis as Libya falls apart

National Editorial
Jan 30, 2012

Local militiamen expelled fighters loyal to Libya's National Transitional Council from the town of Bani Walid this week. A stronghold of the Warfalla tribe, Bani Walid was a final bastion of Qaddafi forces, and some news reports blamed the new fighting on "Qaddafi loyalists". The reality is much worse.

Hope of a smooth transition to national unity is vanishing as Libya's interim government fails to control tribal, regional and class rivalries that have bubbled up across the country.

Many of these old conflicts take the form of vindictiveness against those who supported the dictator - as indeed many did, in a way.

The months of civil war before Qaddafi's death proved that despite the brutality and corruption of his regime, substantial forces were willing to fight for him, or at least by his side. This was, for the most part, because of regional and tribal loyalties, not for love of the dictator. The new Bani Walid fighting is a good example of this: the outbreak was rooted in tribal rivalries that long predated Qaddafi.

Another warning sign became visible when some of the militias that had worked together (up to a point) against Qaddafi retained their weapons, claiming a new role as "guardians of the revolution". That was bad news for the NTC, and for hopes of a unified country. A government without a monopoly on force is not really a government at all.

Indeed, some of the once-allied anti-Qaddafi militias are now skirmishing with each other - the clearest evidence yet that the growing chaos has little or nothing to do with a resurgence of the regime.

This week Doctors Without Borders withdrew its workers from the city of Misurata, saying its doctors had had to treat some 115 prisoners for injuries inflicted by torture, often at the hands of militias and for reasons not directly tied to the war. Amnesty International, citing more torture elsewhere, does not accuse the NTC but says the interim government is failing to prevent the abuses.

The best-case scenario, then, is that the Council is impotent. After the new elections law was passed on Saturday despite withering criticism, other Libyans will say that interim leaders are trying to cement their power.

Libya has significant assets, notably the oil and gas revenue that is flowing in once again. But even money will not soothe old anger; only political vision and inspired leadership has any chance to do that now.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm....

For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA31Ak04.html

Middle East
Jan 31, 2012
THE ROVING EYE
What is the GCC up to in Syria?
By Pepe Escobar

So the Arab League has a new draft United Nations Security Council resolution to "solve" the Syrian saga. [ 1]

World public opinion may be fooled into believing this is an altruistic Arab solution to an Arab problem. Not really.

First of all this is a draft resolution of NATOGCC - that symbiosis between selected North Atlantic Treaty Organization members and selected petromonarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council. By now, after their "success" in blasting regime change into Libya, NATOGCC should be well known as the axis between the European poodles of the Pentagon and the six monarchies that compose the GCC, also known as Gulf Counter-revolution Club.

This draft UN resolution goes one step beyond a so-called Arab League transition plan laid out over a week ago. Now the spin is of a "political roadmap" that essentially means President Bashar al-Assad voluntarily stepping out, his vice president installed in power for a transition, the formation of a national unity government, and free and fair elections with international supervision.

According to the Foreign Minister of Qatar, Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, "The president will delegate his first vice president the full power to work with the national unity government to enable it to perform its task in the transitional period."

Sounds very civilized - except that it masquerades the real agenda of UN-imposed regime change. A quick look at the draft resolution also reveals a two-week deadline for Assad to get out of Dodge; if not, expect hell, "in consultation" with the Arab League.

"Arab" League is now a fiction; what’s really in charge is the Arab Gulf league, or GCC league; in practice, the House of Saud. Even aspiring regional superpower Qatar plays second fiddle. And everyone else, they are just extras.

So here we have the House of Saud and its Gulf minions detailing a road map for regime change followed by full Western parliamentary democracy, and places like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait defending human rights in Arab lands. It's as if this whole thing was a joint plan concocted by dadaist Tristan Tzara and surrealist Andre Breton with a Monty Python twist.

Stuff your Somalia remix
Not surprisingly, the Syrian government rejected the drat resolution as a "blatant intervention in its internal affairs", according to the SANA news agency. The Syrian ambassador to the UN, Bashar Ja'afari, was even more graphic; "Syria will not be Libya; Syria will not be Iraq; Syria will not be Somalia; Syria will not be a failing state."

BRICS member Russia - which alongside China had already vetoed a previous Western-redacted resolution - has already buried this one. For starters, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov couldn't understand why the Arab League suspended its monitoring mission in Syria this past Saturday. Instead, Lavrov would "support an increased number of observers".

Russia - which in no time learned the lessons of the open-ended UN resolution on Libya - has its own draft resolution which, according to Russian UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin, privileges a "Syrian-led political process", not "an Arab League-imposed outcome of a political process that has not yet taken place", or, worse yet, "regime change" a la Libya.

Russia - unlike the West - ascribes the now non-stop violence in Syria to both the Assad regime and the "rebels". Even the GCC League has somewhat admitted that there are shabbihah (armed goons) on both sides, those on the "rebel" side affiliated with the already discredited Free Syrian Army.

That tray of sweets is all mine
Even though there are no objective conditions whatsoever for a NATO bombing of Syria, the NATOGCC + Israel geopolitical axis will pursue its objectives relentlessly.

The objectives are vast; exercising total control over any Arab Spring-related transition (as in the case of Yemen); preventing any changes to the status quo (as in pre-emption in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco); outright repression (as in the case of Bahrain); and preferably getting their cake and eating it too (as in the case of Libya).

But Syria is infinitely more complex; because of the Iranian connection; because BRICS members Russia and China will block any regime change scheme; because there have been no significant cracks among the Syrian military; and because the Assad regime is expert in navigating the divisions between a Sunni majority and the Alawite minority.

So the GCC League was successful in Yemen - controlling the "transition" and even having the dictator Ali Abdulla Saleh sent to the United States. It has been relatively successful in Egypt; even though the head of the snake (Hosni Mubarak) was kicked out, the snake is very much alive and kicking (the military establishment), and to top it off, the new parliament boasts a huge Islamist majority (our heart goes out to the youngsters who actually started everything in Tahrir Square and are left with nothing).

Even the venerable stones in the Umayyad mosque in Damascus know that the Syrian National Council (conveniently exiled in NATO members Turkey and France) is being financed by the House of Saud and Qatar. So expect more GCC-financed weapons to continue raising hell in Syria - now even in some Damascus suburbs. No wonder the GCC League had to pull out its "monitors"; they would have to roundly denounce the very people they are arming.

Even the Playstation King of Jordan - who was the first Arab potentate on the record to want to topple Assad (no wonder Jordan was invited to be a GCC member) - has been forced to admit, "I don't see Syria going through many changes." King Abdullah at least had the good sense to observe, "It's a very complicated puzzle and there is no simple solution. If you can imagine Iraq being a simple solution ... and it's different in Libya, so it has everybody stumped and I don't think anybody has a clear answer on what to do about Syria."

By the way, there are pro-democracy protests in GCC-addicted Jordan virtually every day; but not a peep will be heard about it in Western corporate media. "Liberated" Libya totally disappeared from the Western triumphalist narrative - even as Amnesty International now has evidence of systematic torture in makeshift mini-gulags, and Medicines sans Frontiers (MSF) decided to leave Misrata for good after being asked by those formerly known as "rebels" to treat victims of torture, so they could be tortured again.

Which leads us to the ghastly equivalence between the "transitional councils" in both Libya and Syria. Their undisguised masters were - and are - NATOGCC. Russia may have its own agenda in Syria, but at least the Russians know hardcore violence is being served as much by the Assad regime as by the Syrian National Council and the Free Syria Army.

King Playstation at least got one thing right; no one has a clue on what to do about Syria. So it's Assad on one side against NATOGCC on the other, with average Syrians - covering a wide spectrum of opinion - squeezed in the middle. Rumors swirl about a possible plan C; a bazaar-style deal, over endless cups of green tea, between Assad and the House of Saud. That's unlikely; the GCC League wants the whole tray of sweets - and to eat them too.

Note 1. See here.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His most recent is Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).

He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.

Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Britain warns Russia not to block UN effort over Syria

Downing Street warned Russia on Monday not to block efforts at the United Nations to bring a peaceful resolution to unrest in Syria

1:25PM GMT 30 January 2012
The Telegraph Group

Foreign Secretary William Hague was on Monday flying to New York to lend Britain's support to an Arab-backed draft resolution calling on the country's authoritarian leader Bashar al-Assad to step down and pave the way for a transfer of power.

The Arab League's secretary general Nabil Elaraby will on Tuesday brief Security Council members, including Mr Hague, on the findings of its recent mission to monitor the Assad regime's response to widespread protests against his rule.

The suspension of the mission at the weekend was followed by an upsurge in violence, with reports of at least 62 deaths as regime forces stormed rebel strongholds in the capital Damascus and around the country.

Western powers including Britain and France are pushing for the adoption this week of the resolution tabled by current Security Council member Morocco, which would give international backing to an Arab League timetable for the transition of power in Syria to a unity government, followed by free elections.

But Russia was on Monday resisting a swift vote, saying it wanted to "study the recommendations and conclusions of the observer mission in detail" before moving to a substantive discussion in the Security Council.

Deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov last week signalled that Moscow may wield its veto to block the draft resolution in its current form. In October, Russia and China blocked a Western-backed draft resolution condemning Assad's government for its crackdown on protesters.

Downing Street said: "We believe that the UN must act to support the people of Syria and that Russia can no longer explain blocking the UN and providing cover for the regime's brutal repression."

A spokeswoman added: "There is hope to agree a UN Security Council resolution this week and to make it very clear to President Assad and his regime that the killing must stop.

"We've been working in New York to support a text drafted by Arab members of the Security Council, which promotes a regional approach to the crisis.

"The Foreign Secretary is travelling to New York to show support for the Arab League and their work to bring a peaceful and Syrian-led solution to the current crisis."

Russia's Foreign Ministry says it has invited Syrian authorities and opposition for talks in Moscow.

The ministry said in a statement on Monday that Syrian authorities have already agreed to come. The ministry is hoping that opposition leaders will send their reply in the coming days. The opposition has balked at holding talks with the regime, saying the violence must end first.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...Russia-not-to-block-UN-effort-over-Syria.html

Posted Under Fair Use Discussion

My Comments

Britain warns Russia not to block UN effort over Syria or what?
 

DennisRGH

Reset
Debka: Massive US Military Buildup on Two Strategic Islands: Socotra and Masirah

Sources estimate from the current pace of arrivals on the two island bases, that 50,000 US troops will have accumulated on Socotra and Masirah by mid-February. They will top up the 50,000 military already present in the Persian Gulf region, so that in less than a month, Washington will have some 100,000 military personnel on the spot and available for any contingency.

for more info:

http://www.pacificrimcoins.com/pacrim/content/debka-massive-us-military-buildup-two-strategic-islands-socotra-and-masirah

Thanks Dutch for the huge effort of what you are doing. There are few places on the web, if any, where all the info on the M/E such as found here, is so concentrated, in one thread.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
Third Aircraft Carrier Group Coming To Iran

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2012 08:25 -0500


For months now we have been following US naval developments and deployments in the Arabian Sea, which serve one purpose and one purpose only - to demonstrate US military strength in the Straits of Hormuz region and to keep Iranian 'offensive passions' subdued. Yet never has the US had a total of three aircraft carrier groups in the vicinity, always topping out at 2 in the Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet, most recently these being the CVN-70 Vinson and CVN 72 Lincoln, with a third boat present merely until a rotation in or out of the theater of operations was complete. That is about to change, and with it the prevailing price of Brent, which we are confident is about to take a new step wise price higher as the US makes it all too clear what the endgame is, because as Naval Today reports, the "US navy to deploy third carrier group to Persian Gulf", probably the CVN-77 George H.W. Bush which departed Norfolk two weeks ago according to the most recent naval update, or any other Norfolk-stationed aircraft carrier: there is a wide selection to chose from.

More at link:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/third-aircraft-carrier-group-coming-iran

I also made this one a separate thread for those who may not click on Dutch's updates.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Iran Claims It Has Produced Laser Guided Shells

TEHRAN, Iran January 30, 2012 (AP)

Iran's state TV is reporting the country has produced laser-guided artillery shells, capable of hitting moving targets with high accuracy.

The Monday report quoting Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi also says that the shell was an "intelligent" munition with the capability to identify its own targets.

The report was accompanied by footage showing an artillery piece firing a shell, followed by an explosion in the desert.
The report does not give details on specifications of the shell. It could not be independently verified.

Iran occasionally announces the production and testing of military equipment, ranging from torpedoes to missiles and jet fighters.

The country's military has run a program dating from 1992 which aims at self-sufficiency in producing modern weaponry.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-claims-produced-laser-guided-shells-15469568

Posted Under Fair Use Discussion
 

DennisRGH

Reset
The Monday report quoting Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi also says that the shell was an "intelligent" munition with the capability to identify its own targets.

Now I know they are trying to frighten the West from attacking, because there is no way they have this kind of technology. Makes one wonder what else are they lying about with regards to their weapons capability. As well adds to certainty that they are lying about their ultimate nuclear ambitions etc.

They are getting really creative with the lies, now.


Shows their fear as well as the level of outrageous lies they are capable of.
 
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Report:
Iranian arms smugglers
using European ship firms


By REUTERS01/31/2012 00:58
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=255813

STOCKHOLM - Iranian traffickers, trying to dodge an embargo imposed by Western nations over Iran's nuclear program, are smuggling weapons on container ships owned by firms from the countries that imposed the sanctions, a think-tank said on Monday.


Before 2008, when the United Nations toughened arms embargoes on Iran, the majority of arms and dual-use goods shipments to and from Iran were being transported aboard Iranian ships, or ships chartered by Iranian companies, it said.

"By using respectable mainstream European shipping companies in countries such as Germany and France, they make them their unwitting accomplices," said Hugh Griffiths, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.






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Gulf sets plan for Hormuz closure

IRAN CLAIMS LASER-GUIDED SHELLS … N-BOMB ‘IN YEAR’

http://www.arabtimesonline.com/News...ulf-sets-plan-for-Hormuz-closure/Default.aspx

ABU DHABI, Jan 30, (Agen-cies): Coastguards and naval forces of the Gulf Coopera-tion Council (GCC) group of Arab countries have contingency plans for a possible attempt by Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a Kuwaiti maritime official said on Monday.

Five of the six GCC members — Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Kuwait — rely on the world’s most important energy shipping lane being open to export most of their oil or gas.


Tehran has threatened to close the narrow shipping lane between Oman, the only GCC member which does not depend on Hormuz, and Iran if Western sanctions aimed at starving Iran’s disputed nuclear programme of funds stop it from selling oil.

The GCC members, which also rely on the four-mile-wide (6.4 kilometre) channel being open to import food for their growing populations, has now drawn up a contingency plan in case Iran acts on its threats.

“Exporting oil or importing goods and cargo through Hormuz is a main concern for the GCC,” Commander Mubarak Ali Al-Sabah chief of maritime operations at Kuwait’s Coast Guard told Reuters in an interview.

“The GCC has a plan as a body — not just Kuwait separately or Bahrain or Saudi Arabia — we have a plan we just hope that everything stays safe,” Al-Sabah said, without giving details of the plans.

“Awareness and understanding of the consequences of it has increased,” he said.
“We have plans how to deal with this but didn’t do field exercises on it.”

Al-Sabah said the planning included coordinating both between coastguards and navies of GCC countries and with Western naval forces patrolling the area — including US, Australian and French navies.

Kuwaiti and Iranian coastguards hold regular meetings on how to manage their shared maritime border, with the next one scheduled for next month.

“We don’t go into politics or speak about other issues just what concerns the coastguards and how we can work it out,” he said.

Oil tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are estimated at around 16 million barrels per day (bpd), or just under a fifth of global oil supplies.

A new pipeline from the UAE’s oilfields to the Gulf of Oman could carry most of the Gulf OPEC oil producer’s exports if Hormuz were to be blocked.

But even a brief disruption to shipping could stop most of the oil exported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and Iraq from leaving the Gulf, along with liquefied natural gas (LNG) from leading supplier Qatar.

In December, the US Fifth Fleet said it would not tolerate any disruption of traffic in Hormuz but analysts say Iran might be able to hinder traffic transiting the Strait by scattering mines in it.

“In any navy plan that exists there would be plans for swift coordination to de-mine areas that might have been mined... Or act in coordination preemptively or reactively to prevent Iranian small vessels disrupting shipping,” Christian Le Miere, research fellow for naval forces and maritime security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.

Earlier this month, Iran’s foreign minister warned Arab neighbours not to side with the United States in the escalating dispute over Tehran’s nuclear activities which the West says includes weapons development and Tehran insists are limited to electricity production.

Shells

Iran’s state TV is reporting the country has produced laser-guided artillery shells, capable of hitting moving targets with high accuracy.

The Monday report quoting Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi also says that the shell was an “intelligent” munition with the capability to identify its own targets.

The report was accompanied by footage showing an artillery piece firing a shell, followed by an explosion in the desert.

The report does not give details on specifications of the shell. It could not be independently verified.

Iran occasionally announces the production and testing of military equipment, ranging from torpedoes to missiles and jet fighters.

The country’s military has run a program dating from 1992 which aims at self-sufficiency in producing modern weaponry.

Iran could develop a nuclear bomb in about a year and create the means for delivery in a further two to three years, the US defense chief said Sunday, reiterating President Barack Obama’s determination to halt the effort.

“The United States — and the president’s made this clear — does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon,” Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told the CBS program “60 Minutes.”

“That’s a red line for us. And it’s a red line obviously for the Israelis so we share a common goal here.”

Panetta maintained that US officials “will take whatever steps are necessary to stop it” if Washington receives intelligence that Iran is proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon.

Asked if that meant military action, he said: “There are no options that are off the table.”

Panetta told the interviewer that “the consensus is that, if they (Iran) decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort in order to deliver that weapon.”

In a report issued in November, the International Atomic Energy Agency said intelligence from more than 10 countries and its own sources “indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device.”

It detailed 12 suspicious areas such as testing explosives in a steel container at a military base and studies on Shahab-3 ballistic missile warheads that the IAEA said were “highly relevant to a nuclear weapon program.”
Iran rejected the dossier as based on forgeries.

The Islamic Republic has come under unprecedented international pressure since the publication of the report, with Washington and the European Union targeting its oil sector and central bank.

In his State of the Union message Tuesday, Obama said a peaceful outcome was still possible with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, but he declined to rule out the military option.

“The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent,” Obama said.

“Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal,” the president declared, triggering a standing ovation.

Extend

Meanwhile, Iran’s top diplomat offered Monday to extend the current visit of UN nuclear inspectors and expressed optimism their findings would help ease tensions despite international claims that Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons.

The comments by Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, reported by Iran’s official news agency, underscored efforts to display cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency team and downplay the expectations of a confrontation atmosphere during the three-day visit that began Sunday.

The IAEA mission is the first to Iran since a report in November that suggested some of the Islamic Republic’s alleged experiments — cited in intelligence documents — can have no other purpose than developing nuclear weapons.

The current inspection team includes two senior weapons experts, hinting that Iran may be prepared to discuss specific points on the claims it seeks to develop warheads after three years of rebuffing UN calls for answers.

Salehi, attending an African summit in Ethiopia, repeated remarks that he was “optimistic about the results of the visit” without offering more details. He also told Turkish state television that the UN mission could be “extended if necessary,” according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

The findings from the visit could greatly influence Western efforts to expand economic pressures on Iran over its uranium enrichment — which Washington and allies fear could eventually produce weapons-grade material. Iran has declined to abandon its enrichment labs, but claims it seeks to fuel reactors only for energy and medical research.

Asian powers — which buy the bulk of Iran’s oil — have resisted appeals to join Western boycotts and financial sanctions aimed at Iran’s critical oil industry.

India’s finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, told reporters Sunday in Chicago that cutting off Iranian oil would be too great a blow for the Indian economy. About 12 percent of India’s oil imports reportedly come from Iran, making Iran its second-largest supplier after Saudi Arabia.

The UN team has made no public comments since leaving Vienna, the headquarters for the watchdog agency.

But Iranian media said the team is likely to visit an underground enrichment site near Qom, 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Tehran, which is carved into a mountain as protection from possible airstrikes. Earlier this month, Iran said it had begun enrichment work at the site, which is far smaller than the country’s main uranium labs but is reported to have more advanced equipment.

The IAEA team also wants to talk to key Iranian scientists suspected of working on a weapons program. The team also plans to inspect documents related to nuclear work and secure commitments from Iranian authorities to allow future visits.
It remains unclear how much Iran will cooperate or is willing to disclose. Iran has accused the IAEA in the past of security leaks that expose its scientists and their families to the threat of assassination by the US and Israel.









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Iran appears to be helping Syrian regime

by Staff Writers
Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UPI) Jan 30, 2012
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Iran_appears_to_be_helping_Syrian_regime_999.html

U.S. officials increasingly say they suspect that Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, Iran's covert action mastermind, is operating in Syria, helping Tehran's key Arab ally, President Bashar al-Assad, crush a stubborn 10-month-old uprising against his rule.

If these suspicions are correct, this would be a key mission for the shadowy Suleimani, who specializes in using covert pressure to secure strategic objectives.

There have been unconfirmed reports that Suleimani was in Damascus this month as the crisis in Syria seemed to be moving from a popular uprising toward civil war between the minority Alawite regime and the Syria's Sunni majority.


Tehran has a lot at stake here.

Some Middle East analysts say that if Assad was overthrown and Iran lost its gateway to the Levant and its prize proxy, Hezbollah, Tehran could be forced to rethink its strategy in its confrontation with the West in the Persian Gulf.

But there are signs that Suleimani, commander of the al-Quds Force, covert operations arm of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, is fast becoming a major player within the Tehran regime.

That could signal a strengthening of conservative hard-liners in the current power struggle within the regime, which could impact on the current standoff in the oil-rich gulf.

There are suspicions, too, that Suleimani's entry into the potentially explosive crisis in Syria will affect the wider Levant region, including volatile Lebanon, where Syrian dissidents are being sought.

Syria's -- and Iran's -- key ally in Lebanon is Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim organization that Western intelligence officials say is actively helping Assad's regime fight its foes.

Many of Lebanon's Sunnis, led by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, is confronting the Hezbollah-dominated government in Beirut, fostering fears of a Sunni-Shiite conflict in a nation plagued by sectarian rivalries.

Four members of Hezbollah, including two senior figures, have been indicted for the Feb. 14, 2005, assassination of Hariri's father, Rafik, five times prime minister of Lebanon, by a U.N.-mandated special tribunal in the Netherlands.

Hezbollah denies involvement in the Hariri killing, in which Syria was long seen as the main suspect.

For Suleimani, who spent several years causing mayhem for the Americans in Iraq before they withdrew their forces in December, this cauldron of intrigue and murder is the kind of death-and-diplomacy mission of which he is seen as a master.

Indeed, Suleimani, who spent many years operating in the shadows, is taking a more openly influential role in Tehran's expansionist policies that suggest his personal power within the fundamentalist regime is growing.

In Iran, the power of the Revolutionary Guards, the al-Quds Force's parent organization, appears to be growing by the day.

It's increasingly seen as supporting Iran's ultra-conservative supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in his power struggle with the politically ambitious President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Suleimani answers directly to Khamenei.

Reflecting his growing status in Iran's ruling elite, Suleimani last month stepped into the limelight and openly declared that Iraq and Hezbollah-dominated South Lebanon, on the Israeli border, were effectively under Iranian control.

Everyone's known that for years but Suleimani was the first Iranian leader to boldly declare it up front.

That caused immense consternation among Hezbollah's Christian and Sunni adversaries. But they've shown little inclination to take on Hezbollah and its powerful military machine, even while it's distracted helping Assad.

Amal al-Hazzani of King Saud University in Riyadh, where Iran is deemed Saudi Arabia's primary enemy, observed that Iraq's political leaders are also powerless to defy Iran.

"Iraq's Sunni politicians … feel that Suleimani in particular still harbors the belief that the Iraq-Iran war of the 1980s has only just ended with Iran being victorious, and that he's among the prominent leaders of this victory," Hazzani noted.

"As for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, he willingly submits to the Iranian domination that brought him to power, a domination which is in fact his only way to survive …

"If Suleimani succeeds as planned in delaying the Syrian regime's downfall, such a success … would be an indicator of the rise of Suleimani at the expense of President Ahmadinejad."

If the gulf crisis erupts into conflict, Suleimani would be the man who unleashes Iran's retaliation against the West and its Arab allies like Saudi Arabia through proxies like Hezbollah -- terrorist attacks, assassinations, kidnappings and sabotage.






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Column:
Why attacking Iran won't stop the nukes

By Matthew Furhmann and Sarah Kreps
Updated 1h 36m ago

The newest round of sanctions that prompted Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has revived questions about the endgame: What happens if Iran does not give up its nuclear program?

www.voipo.com
USATODAY OPINION
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinio...program-attack-preemptive-military/52891714/1

In addition to its own editorials, USA TODAY publishes a variety of opinions from outside writers. On political and policy matters, we publish opinions from across the political spectrum.

Roughly half of our columns come from our Board of Contributors, a group whose interests range from education to religion to sports to the economy. Their charge is to chronicle American culture by telling the stories, large and small, that collectively make us what we are.

We also publish weekly columns by Al Neuharth, USA TODAY's founder, and DeWayne Wickham, who writes primarily on matters of race but on other subjects as well. That leaves plenty of room for other views from across the nation by well-known and lesser-known names alike.


For some of the Republican presidential candidates, the answer is a pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Although their rhetoric is more heated, the Republicans' prescription is similar to that of the Obama administration: keep military strikes on the table when dealing with Iran. This threat raises the question of whether striking Iran's nuclear facilities would actually delay proliferation.

To answer this question, we examined all historical cases where countries bombed nuclear plants to stymie their enemy's ability to build nuclear weapons. We analyzed attacks that occurred during ongoing wars — such as the U.S. raids against Iraq's nuclear infrastructure during the 1991 Persian Gulf War— as well as raids that occurred during peacetime, such as Israel's 2007 attack against a nuclear reactor in Syria.

The challenges

Our analysis showed that several attacks have significantly delayed the target's ability to build the bomb. However, four observations gleaned from previous attacks suggest that history is unlikely to repeat itself when it comes to Iran:

•First, the targets have often possessed a small and geographically concentrated nuclear program. Attacks against Germany during World War II, Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007 were successful, in part, because attacks were able to essentially eliminate the target's capacity to produce fissile material (weapons-grade highly enriched uranium or plutonium) by destroying one critical facility.

Iran's nuclear program, which dates to the 1950s, however, is relatively advanced and highly diffuse. A number of facilities would need to be destroyed to significantly curtail Iran's weapons program. At a minimum, the attacker — presumably the United States or Israel — would need to destroy the two known uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom. The target list would also probably include the heavy water production facility at Arak, the uranium conversion center at Isfahan, Iran's one operational nuclear power plant at Bushehr and its medical research reactor located outside Tehran.

The U.S. military has the capability to destroy these facilities. Yet the likelihood of operational success declines as the number of facilities that need to be destroyed increases.

•Second, the fairly advanced state of Iran's nuclear program also raises the likelihood that it has clandestine facilities that neither Israel nor the U.S. knows about. Advocates of attacking Iran suggest that this is unlikely, but history tells a different story.

Indeed, the track record of identifying all nuclear facilities in states of concern is far from perfect. During the Persian Gulf War, for example, the U.S. heavily bombed Iraqi nuclear installations, but some important facilities — including a centrifuge plant at Al Rashidiya — remained unscathed because their existence was unknown to the U.S. and its allies.

Iran is almost certainly aware that an attack against its nuclear facilities is possible, especially given that its nuclear program was targeted during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Why, then, should policymakers have confidence that Iran has not built secret nuclear facilities or taken other countermeasures to protect itself?

•Third, even if we assume that the U.S. could locate and destroy all of Iran's facilities, Tehran already possesses the knowledge required to produce enriched uranium — a critical ingredient for nuclear weapons. Any facilities that were destroyed could be rebuilt relatively quickly.

The same could not be said of Syria, a country that relied on North Korea for its nuclear development and lacked the indigenous knowledge necessary to rebuild its nuclear plant in short order after the Israelis destroyed the facility more than four years ago.

•Fourth, history suggests that multiple attacks are often necessary to significantly curtail a nuclear weapons program. Here, again, the case of Iraq is instructive. Baghdad terminated its nuclear weapons program after the Persian Gulf War. Yet this happened only after Iraq had its nuclear facilities attacked by three countries: Iran (1980), Israel (1981) and the U.S. (1991).

Even in a best-case scenario, an attack against Iran is unlikely to be a "smash and grab" job. Instead, success is likely to require sustained military pressure over several years and perhaps decades.

Deterrence

There is a long list of potential consequences of bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, including the onset of a protracted war. Forget, for a moment, about these dangers. The main reason attacking Iran is unwise is that military force is far less likely to delay proliferation than advocates of striking Iranian nuclear facilities acknowledge.

Thus, if today's tougher sanctions do not succeed and Iran does acquire the bomb, a policy of deterrence — making it clear that the United States would respond to any use of nuclear weapons with overwhelming force of its own — could be the best option.

Iran's leaders might be provocative, but they are unlikely to be suicidal.







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The Biggest Risk to the Economy in 2012,
and What's the Economy for Anyway?


Posted: 01/30/2012 5:03 pm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/the-biggest-risk-to-the-e_b_1242608.html

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos a few days ago, said the "critical risks" facing the American economy this year were a worsening of Europe's chronic sovereign debt crisis and a rise in tensions with Iran that could stoke global oil prices.


What about jobs and wages here at home?

As the Commerce Department reported Friday, the U.S. economy grew 2.8 percent between October and December -- the fastest pace in 18 months and the first time growth exceeded 2 percent all year. Many bigger American companies have been reporting strong profits in recent months. GE and Lockheed Martin closed the year with record order backlogs.

Yet the percent of working-age Americans in jobs isn't much different than what it was three years ago. Yes, America now produces more than it did when the recession began. But it does so with 6 million fewer workers.

Average after-tax incomes adjusted for inflation are moving up a bit. (They increased at an annual rate of .8 percent in the last three months of 2011 after falling 1.9 percent in prior three-month period. For all of 2011, incomes fell .1 percent.)

But beware averages. Shaquille O'Neal and I have an average height of six feet. Exclude Mitt Romney's $20 million last year -- along with everyone else securely in the top 1 percent -- and the incomes of most Americans are continuing to slip.

Consumer spending picked up slightly in the fourth quarter mainly because consumers drew down their savings. Obviously, this can't last.

Meanwhile, government is spending less on schools, roads, bridges, parks, defense, and social services. Government spending at all levels dropped at an annual rate of 4.6 percent in the last quarter -- and that's likely to continue.

Some economists worry this drop is a drag on the economy. But it also means fewer public goods available to all Americans regardless of income.

Congress still hasn't decided whether to renew the temporary payroll tax cut and extend unemployment benefits past February. If it doesn't, expect another 1 percent slice off GDP growth this year.

Tim Geithner is surely correct that the European debt crisis and Iran pose risks to the American economy in 2012. But they aren't the biggest risk. The biggest risk is right here at home - that most Americans will continue to languish.

All of which raises a basic question: Who or what is the economy for? Surely not just for a few at the top, and not just big corporations and their CEOs. Nor can the success of the economy be measured by how fast the GDP is growing, or how high the Dow Jones Industrial Average is rising, or whether average incomes are turning upward.

The crisis of American capitalism marks the triumph of consumers and investors over workers and citizens. And since most of us occupy all four roles -- even though the lion's share of consuming and investing is done by the wealthy -- the real crisis centers on the increasing efficiency by which all of us as consumers and investors can get great deals, and our declining capacity to be heard as workers and citizens.

Modern technologies allow us to shop in real time, often worldwide, for the lowest prices, highest quality, and best returns. Through the Internet and advanced software we can now get relevant information instantaneously, compare deals, and move our money at the speed of electronic impulses. We can buy goods over the Internet that are delivered right to our homes. Never before in history have consumers and investors been so empowered.

Yet these great deals increasingly come at the expense of our own and our compatriots' jobs and wages, and widening inequality. The goods we want or the returns we seek can often be produced more efficiently elsewhere around the world by companies offering lower pay, fewer benefits, and inferior working conditions.

They also come at the expense of our Main Streets -- the hubs of our communities -- when we get the great deals through the Internet or at big-box retailers that scan the world for great deals on our behalf.

Some great deals have devastating environmental consequences. Technology allows us to efficiently buy low-priced items from poor nations with scant environmental standards, sometimes made in factories that spill toxic chemicals into water supplies or pollutants into the air. We shop for great deals in cars that spew carbon into the air and for airline tickets in jet planes that do even worse.

Other great deals offend common decency. We may get a great price or high return because a producer has cut costs by hiring children in South Asia or Africa who work twelve hours a day, seven days a week. Or by subjecting people to death-defying working conditions.

As workers or as citizens most of us would not intentionally choose these outcomes but as seekers after great deals we are indirectly responsible for them. Companies know that if they fail to offer us the best deals we will take our money elsewhere -- which we can do with ever-greater speed and efficiency.

The best means of balancing the demands of consumers and investors against those of workers and citizens has been through democratic institutions that shape and constrain markets.

Laws and rules offer some protection for jobs and wages, communities, and the environment. Although such rules are likely to be costly to us as consumers and investors because they stand in the way of the very best deals, they are intended to approximate what we as members of a society are willing to sacrifice for these other values.

But technologies for getting great deals are outpacing the capacities of democratic institutions to counterbalance them. For one thing, national rules intended to protect workers, communities, and the environment typically extend only to a nation's borders. Yet technologies for getting great deals enable buyers and investors to transcend borders with increasing ease, at the same time making it harder for nations to monitor or regulate such transactions.

For another, goals other than the best deals are less easily achieved within the confines of a single nation. The most obvious example is the environment, whose fragility is worldwide. In addition, corporations now routinely threaten to move jobs and businesses away from places that impose higher costs on them - and therefore, indirectly, on their consumers and investors -- to more "business friendly" jurisdictions. The Internet and software have made companies sufficiently nimble to render such threats credible.

But the biggest problem is that corporate money is undermining democratic institutions in the name of better deals for consumers and investors. Campaign contributions, fleets of well-paid corporate lobbyists, and corporate-financed PR campaigns about public issues are overwhelming the capacities of Congress, state legislatures, regulatory agencies, and the courts to reflect the values of workers and citizens.

As a result, consumers and investors are doing increasingly well but job insecurity is on the rise, inequality is widening, communities are becoming less stable, and climate change is worsening. None of this is sustainable over the long term.

Blame global finance and worldwide corporations all you want. But save some blame for the insatiable consumers and investors inhabiting almost every one of us, who are entirely complicit. And blame our inability as workers and citizens to reclaim our democracy.






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:shkr:
:siren:Israel sees narrowing window for attack on Iran:siren:


Published: 01.30.12, 23:57 / Israel News
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4183001,00.html


Israeli officials are quietly conceding that new international sanctions targeting Iran's suspect nuclear program, while welcome, are further constraining Israel's ability to take military action – just as a window of opportunity is closing because Tehran is moving more of its installations underground.


The officials say that Israel must act by the summer if it wants to effectively attack Iran's program. (AP)





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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Iran Claims It Has Produced Laser Guided Shells

TEHRAN, Iran January 30, 2012 (AP)

Iran's state TV is reporting the country has produced laser-guided artillery shells, capable of hitting moving targets with high accuracy.

The Monday report quoting Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi also says that the shell was an "intelligent" munition with the capability to identify its own targets.

The report was accompanied by footage showing an artillery piece firing a shell, followed by an explosion in the desert.
The report does not give details on specifications of the shell. It could not be independently verified.

Iran occasionally announces the production and testing of military equipment, ranging from torpedoes to missiles and jet fighters.

The country's military has run a program dating from 1992 which aims at self-sufficiency in producing modern weaponry.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-claims-produced-laser-guided-shells-15469568

Posted Under Fair Use Discussion

Well, the US M712 Copperhead 155 mm laser guided shell goes back to the 1980s (development started in the 1970s) and was used in Iraq Wars 1 and 2 by the U.S., the Russian Krasnopol (in both 152mm and 155 mm) that goes back to around that time period as well IIRC.
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2012/0131/1224311001985.html

The Irish Times - Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Rebels abandon Damascus strongholds
MICHAEL JANSEN

SYRIAN TROOPS supported by tanks yesterday continued their offensive in the eastern suburbs of the capital, Damascus, wresting control from rebels who abandoned their strongholds and melted into the population.

In the central province of Homs, saboteurs blew up a gas pipeline near the town of Tel Kalakh, a protest hub, cutting off the supply to the port city of Banias.

In Deraa province, six soldiers, including a colonel, were killed by “an armed terrorist group” while driving in the countryside, according to official news agency Sana. Activists said the deaths occurred during clashes between loyalist troops and the rebel Free Syrian Army. Opposition activists claimed the countrywide death toll was 34, with 22 in Homs, the current epicentre of the rebellion.

Blind preacher Ahmad al-Sayasneh, who stirred the revolt in Deraa, has been spirited across Syria’s southern border into Jordan, an opposition spokesman said.

More than 50 military funerals were said to have been held over the weekend, demonstrating that the insurgency is gaining momentum.

Opposition spokesmen said the Free Syrian Army had recruited 50,000 defectors, but this claim cannot be verified.

The regular Syrian army has some 140,000 officers and troops. The government also deploys an unknown number of militiamen, mainly from the minority heterodox Shia Alawite community, in a force known as the shabiha.

On the diplomatic front, Russia invited the Syrian government and the opposition for talks in Moscow. The authorities promptly agreed to send representatives, while the Syrian National Council, a coalition of opposition groups in exile, said it did not receive an invitation but would refuse to attend if invited.

The council rejects talks with the regime headed by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, while other opposition groups based abroad and in Syria have repeatedly called for talks. The Russian foreign ministry said talks must be held “as soon as possible” to bring an end to unrest that has killed at least 5,400 people since last March.

French foreign minister Alain Juppé and British foreign secretary William Hague are due to attend a UN Security Council meeting today to press members to adopt a resolution calling for implementation of the Arab League’s plan to end the unrest in Syria through regime change.

The plan calls for talks between government and opposition, formation of a unity cabinet, transfer of presidential powers to Dr Assad’s deputy, and parliamentary elections. Syria has rejected the plan as unacceptable interference in its internal affairs.

The security council has threatened to “adopt further measures” beyond the current sanctions if the regime does not implement the Arab League plan.

Following the suspension of their mission, Arab League monitors outside Damascus are set to move to the capital. Some will leave Syria while others will stay on without conducting missions.
 
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